Continued from here:New Rumors VIII
Post from Doctor Dave that has everyone’s interest:
Dr Dave – at 20:17
This afternoon I had the scariest conversation of my life. It was about the pandemic and it was with someone who has high-level insider information. Here is what happened:
Twice each week I bend the ear of whomever is sitting next to me on the airplane and I talk about the impending pandemic. Often times, the people I sit next to have some measure of infulence in their respective companies, so I press them for their e-mail addresses and I send them electronic versions of a lengthy pandemic preparation document I have written. Well, today I had the good fortune to sit next to the Director of Virology of a major medical center at a major university in the southwestern United States. Needless to say, I took advantage of this situation and we had a lively discourse.
I learned that this virologist’s hospital has been pereparing for a pandemic for several months. They anticipate a 50% infection rate and a 10% case fatality rate. They have decided that when just 1 student is diagnosed with H5N1, the university will shut down everything but its medical center. At that point in time, the staff of the medical center will be required to live on campus. They will not commute. The medical center has enough food and water and generator fuel to support 150% of their current staffing level for three straight months. The National Guard will provide security and crowd control for the medical center.
During our 4-hour flight we discussed many of the real-world scenarios that might unfold. Ultimately, this person and his hospital both understand that 3 months of supplies will not be enough, but they feel they are way ahead of the curve by having done this much.
When I mentioned to him that I feared that the post-pandemic world be like early 19th century conditions, he indicated that early 19th century was a “best-outcome” scenario. He actually fears that our future will be much worse. Although this individual balked at many of my questions, he did acknowledge that he has a stock of suicide pills for himself and his closest friends and relatives.
This, coming from an “insider”, is very disturbing.
“They anticipate a 50% infection rate and a 10% case fatality rate.”
Guess work… I guess a higher CFR… of about… 80%
Guess work… I guess a higher CFR… of about… 80%
That’s a lot of bodies….
Let’s do the math: Just in the USA—300,000,000 people. 50% get infected, 150,000,000. With an 80% CFR, that’s about 120,000,000 bodies.
In the world, 6,000,000,000 people with a 50% infection rate = 3,000,000,000 people infected times 80% CFR = 2.4 billion dead?!?
I am sooo glad this is a rumors thread ;-) Real estate prices are really gonna tank…
Hi, all, just to resurrect the rumor of the WHO moving the pandemic level to stage 4. I believe it was Goju who speculated that any such anouncement would be made on a Friday after the markets close. This afternoon I have seen a TV commercial for bird flu (check newsreport and lookout post USA for URL), and now we have had 3 articles dealing with the costs to businesses in a pandemic. I am now starting to wonder about the rumor. How many more people would be prepared if they did?!?
Come on, WHO. Everybody has to do the right thing sometime.
Bronco Bill – at 15:45 Real estate prices are really gonna tank…
In some places like Trump towers…. but some areas may see prices increas - say mountain cabins with springs, island with coconut trees, small farm houses with good gardens, a WV cabin with a meadow and game,….
My crystal ball says 30% infection and 30 1918 number and the average rate over the last few years. But again the crank on my good crystal ball is broken and I am having to use the solar power one and the glare just doesn’t……
I have to agree with what someone earlier (Tom DVM maybe?) that WHO won’t do anything official until after the Olympics are held in China. Too much economic stress would be caused by that announcement…
DennisC--- Shut. Up. ROTFLMAO!!!!!!! :-D
<know that I’m only kidding with you!>
Blue Ridge Mountain Mom and Goju,
I don’t think WHO cares about the US stock market timing. I think you give them too much credit for being “clever”. I think they don’t have a clue and don’t know what is going on or what they should do. Flu wiki has more “eyes” to watch the world than WHO or the CDC. WE may not have a direct line to the information but we make up for it in “numbers of eyes” on the problem.
DennisC - 16:02
Seems to me that you need a wind generator backup on that crystal ball…. LOL!!!
I’m loving the flu ad showing the Happy Feet ‘cast’ of penquins dancing around….so cute. Makes the flu look fun. Real estate may tank but clever marketing will live on forever.
DennisC - 16:08
I believe on some level that you are right, but I have to believe that their self preservation instinct will kick in. Ok, maybe it’s time to spike the coffee with Bailey’s in order to go on thinking that.
In the Voice of America article that I posted earlier on the news thread, they were estimating a cost for panflu of between $330 billion worldwide to $4.4 trillion dollars worldwide in the case of ‘the most severe - the ultra scenario.’ Of course, their ultra scenario, is a CFR of 2%.
I wonder what the numbers are like for a higher CFR like 25$ or the 76% CFR currently running in Indonesia. I wonder how those numbers compare to the numbers that would be caused by going to level 4.
Always follow the money….
Oh, yeah, that wind generator is for your crank crystal ball. It might help rid you of your unfortunate solar glare! Still laughing, thanks!
DennisC at 16:08…The ONE thing WHO may be good at is politics. They certainly have mucked up the “health” part of the W-H-O.
I’m becoming convinced that WHO actually stands for:
What? Huh? Oh boy….
LOL or
What? Huh? Oh #*%^&!
DennisC- it would be good if you could get a wind generator for your crystal ball-there seems to be a lot of hot air blowing through some of these threads latly. :-)
Bronco Bill- WHO announcing AFTER the Olympics? You are joking, right?
My brain cannot comprehend 2.4 billion dead. Can’t do it. Even with RWFK can’t do it. I’m going to see if a Guiness will help, and then I might, it a bit, see if some Maker’s Mark will help. I’m sooooo glad its Friday, Whether WHO announces this afternoon or not (I’m kinda thinking they wont….) I’m still glad its Friday.
WHO - What Harmful Organism?
where, how many, oh no……
enza – at 16:44
I was trying to keep it clean, but I like yours even better! ; )
In reference to the TV ad’s regarding flu, has anyone wondered if the CBS fall TV show Jericho might a show to sort of get the public in general to start thinking of what to do as a community in case of major disruption of our supply chains?
I remarked to dh that I thought this show was inspired by the bf possibility.
DennisC – at 16:48
Very clever stuff as usual!
Here is my 10 cents worth on the mysterious Dr. Virologist: He has enough Dilaudid for 27 others and himself—that makes 28!! To be safe you would have to dose with 10 pills each to kill yourself. That makes 280 dilaudid pills he has!! Of course he wouldn’t want to make his name public. Those pills were handled out illegally as they are a narcotic and “prescribed” to someone and 27 others for a non-existent problem for a possible situation in the future!! I think the DEA would frown on this man. And while we are on the subject of smelling something fishy here, I would like you to think on this: He is a PhD, not an MD. Of course MD’s are going to be sequestered inside their medical facility, but there is no more reason to keep a PhD around than to keep a janitor around in PanFlu. Md’s take care of people, not PhD’s. He wouldn’t be needed, he would be in the way. As a PhD, he is either a lecturer or a researcher or a teacher, but certainly not a bedside clinician. If he hasn’t figured out by now what he needs to figure out about the viruses he is studying , then another few hours looking through the microscope at the height of PanFlu is not going to matter. And that business about bringing his family into the complex—that is absurd—think about it—if they all bring their families into the complex, then they are not going to have enough food and supplies for that 3 month period, and for all those medical students and their extended families, are they?? What is he going to do, bring all 27 potential Dilaudid candidates into the complex with him? Remember the doctors and nurses now down in N.O. who are being charged with murder for the possible mercy killings of those patients?? And he is going to provide such a service to 27 people? Why it must be the famous virologist Dr. Kevorkian. I am not afraid to tell you who I am—I am a 30 year critical care (ED/ICU) R.N. and I live in Southern Oregon. I agree with BP—keep your critical faculties operating at all times and your nostrils flared widely.
Dr. Dave, I thank you for the information. Please do not let just a couple of posters dissuade you from posting again.
BP you insult our collective intelligence and judgement. We are perfectly capable of making up our own minds. When a majority of people in a group form the same opinion after they have read as many news articles and medical reports as we have, it is not necessarily “group think”, it is often just good sense.
What the doctor said about not recovering to 1800′s level of civilization is nothing but the truth. We would no longer have access to the neccesities and certainly not the amenities to maintain an 1800′s way of life. We have practically no trained draft animals or the equipment they were used for. How far back would we go? A long, long way…..
Pugmom, no one said the doctor that Dr. Dave spoke to was a PHD. Some medical researchers have both degrees. Also, I got the impression he had not distributed the pills yet.
That said, it is a rumor and that is the way we should take it…as another little tidbit of information that may or may not be true, but could be of some aid in combining with other information to form our own opinion. We all have to make up our own mind.
As to what the doctor regarding his opinion that we’d be lucky if we were able to go back to an 1800′s way of life, it is so true. Our country has very few trained draft animals and even less equipment to use with them. We could not feed our population with no modern machinery. If our government has not made some secret plans for keeping electricity going and sufficient gas for farming and transportation of foodstuffs, we are in for a hairy time. How far back would we go? …A very long, long way….
Sorry for the repetition in the second post. My very first post got “eaten” and I forgot I had already covered that point in the replacement post I wrote.
pugmom - at 17:27 -
I have no problem with Dr Dave’s post.
You make quite a few assumptions. You state this Dr of Virology is a PhD, and not an MD. I did not see that written. You state that the dilaudid pills were, “handled out illegally.” How do you know that? Where did you read that he would bring his family into the complex? Did I miss something?
I am simply reading what was written and passing judgement as to what part of the posting I believe. I actually don’t see something that I absolutely believe has to be false. I believe there is all kinds of stuff going on behind the scenes that we don’t know about. This is all plausible.
There will always be a bell-shaped curve of people’s reactions/beliefs about everything. For many, Nabarro, Osterholm, and Webster are ractionaries. I don’t think so. Perhaps this virologist is a little more reactionary than others, a little further out on the curve (or simply willing to state views that others will not state). That doesn’t mean he is stating untruths.
Many people here seem to be angry or upset at Dr Dave’s post. My question is why?
What do you think others, who might have some inside info, are thinking when they see people either indicating there is a lack of credibility with Dr Dave or that his complete post is hogwash? What I think is that there may be a lot fewer people willing to share “inside info.”
I admire Dr Dave for having the guts to write what happened on his flight. I am extremely worried about H5N1, and what he stated does not change anything I think or what I am doing. I believe Dr Dave is credible. I also believe Dr Dave (and many like him) just may not share with us again.
We all should be quite careful to only attack (if we must) the message, not the messenger.
I believe that it’s sad that this thread has the most activity over any other current thread, including those on preparation.
There is always the possibility that the medications the virologist mentioned, as well as a full array of other medications, have been distributed very officially to those who have agreed to serve through the pandemic. If that is the case, then they are really thinking hard and ahead.
Bird Guano – at 18:27 I believe that it’s sad that this thread has the most activity over any other current thread, including those on preparation.
Yes and no. People need to work through their worst fears, before they can get back to how to deal with practicalitiest.
Just my 2C…
Regarding Pixie at 18:34 - It is very possible that he has been given morphine (as well as other medications) and not just for an easy death.
A close friend was hospitalized recently with just “regular” flu and was given morphine for intense pain (joints, muscles, etc.)
I have read that the pain in Avian flu is really quite worse than in regular flu.
So, any doctor expected to work and given any medication may also be given morphine to use.
Perhaps it was just an “added feature” of his to think of using it for a near death family member.
I love Dr. Dave. I think his posts have always been great.
I think his source (did someone say Deep Throat?) could have been anyone who has thought through pandemica. And I thought his guesstimate was interesting but not so alarmist. Alarmist was Webster on Nightline last Nov - 50% of the earthh’s population dead… now that is alarmist especially coming out of his mouth. PS - Webster is a real Dr.
The bit about suicide pills was very entertaining. Even my DW said she didnt want to live in the kind of world I am talking about.
Goju: My parents said the same thing. When I told them that when it came down to the reality of starving, they’d change their minds. They prep now.
Bird Guano: On the contrary, I find this has been a very worthwhile thread.
Anon 22: It does illuminate my worst fears, but not perhaps in the way you’re thinking: my worst fears are that maybe I’m _not_ crazy.
I was kind of hoping I am. But if the rumor is true, and serious people are taking the situation just that seriously, then unfortunately, I’m not crazy. This _is_ real.
Northstar. Trust me, they are much more worried then us…because they are directly responsible.
I don’t think I would want to take the blame for the deplorable behavior of regulators in the last two years…
…I would not want to have to look into a young parents eyes and tell them that I as the regulator that did nothing of substance for nine years except tell everybody it wasn’t going to happen or to intentionally mislead citizens and Governments and regulators around the world.
…they are and have been betting it wouldn’t happen for the past nine years…I can tell by every statement they make that has no basis in science or medicine…
…problem is nature and H5N1 and H7 and H9 and H3 don’t understand ‘spin’.
…I wouldn’t want to be directly responsible for the deaths in the target age groups…
…They now have a choice…wake up or accept the inevitable consequences which will be a lot of dead children and a lot of very angry citizens.
There is still time if they want to use it wisely…like stockpile antibiotics etc. and food…it will cost 60$ per child…that is just a start…there is lots they can do…
…but oh no…they are still gambling!!
Northstar – at 19:38
Anon 22: It does illuminate my worst fears, but not perhaps in the way you’re thinking: my worst fears are that maybe I’m _not_ crazy.
What is worse than walking into a roomful of the high-and-mighty in Washington DC and find out that they disagree with what you are saying?
When they agree with what you are saying….
JV – at 18:23
I believe that Dr. Dave stated that HE is a PhD in response to someone inquiring as to whether he himeself is an MD.
And I believe Dr. Dave did relay info that the person he spoke with on the plane did indicate his family could join him on campus if push came to shove.
I feel badly for Dr. Dave. As JV says, don’t shoot the messenger. People should breath before they post and ask themself if their reaction might have as much to do with their own baggage as it does with the actual thread.
Edna Mode - at 20:08
Yes, I was responding to pugmom when she stated that the virologist was a PhD not an MD, (no reference to Dr Dave).
Re your second point, I reread the info in the post, and I didn’t get that feeling that his family was absolutely joining him. But, I could be wrong.
I think we have all dissected Dr Dave’s post to death! I honestly don’t want to rehash stuff. In the end, I was trying to state that I think the messenger, Dr Dave, was attacked. I think that was inappropriate. H5N1 pandemic is a very emotional topic. So much is at stake. I agree with Edna Mode that people should calm down a bit.
I have got to believe that a lot of great inside info will not be placed in the “Rumors” thread because of how we attack the messenger. Think about it. Do we want to just attack everyone who posts confidential or inside info? In that case, we won’t be getting any anymore!
Maybe now we can move on to another “rumor.” I don’t think there is anything else to discuss here.
Edna Mode-Yes-your observations are correct, I guess some of us are so emotionally charged reading his posts, that we misinterpreted them. I don’t understand what all the fuzz is about. Have we not discussed bad scenerios ourselves for many months now. How can we get so suspicious if a virologist has those same views. What were all those discussions all about then-entertainment?. I’m glad dr. Dave posted here-it really validates what we on fluwikie have been saying all along.I hope he will continue to post in spite of the negative responses. It takes guts to post what he did , but he followed his conscience and his heart.
If I recall correctly Dr. Dave is a retired PhD who works with a company who sells emergency products (Preps? Emergency? Safety? I don’t remember) to organizations like FEMA, Red Cross, etc. Very nice fella.
To all. Expect the emotional level to increase dramatically. It may very well get to the point that the regulars don’t post or lurk anymore. I’m close to that point myself. I’ve got better was to spend my normal precious days. We are getting close to “The Day”.
Goodnight.
My god…. early 1800′s? I don’t think so.
If you haven’t, read Stephen King’s “The Stand”. A virus wipes out most of mankind with the exception of a small segment of the population (and cats) who seems to be immune.
All of the infrastructure, all of the refineries, factories, machines, resources are all still there. So is the know-how to operate it. It may take a while to get things back up to speed, but we won’t get stoned back to bashing flint nodes against our rock anvil.
And just think how much “healthier” the environment will be with 1/2 of the world’s polluters being recycled into fertilizer!
It will not, of course, get to that, but my point remains valid nonetheless. It may be sh!tty for a while, but the 21st century will re-emerge in due course.
The following is *not* a rumor. This is a news article which quotes a public health official in Pinal county Arizona. Note, the picture painted in this news article is objectively worse than the picture painted in the rumor everyone is wondering about. I have nothing against posting rumors on the rumor thread, but guys, the news is worse than the rumors.
County: Pandemic is possible and probable
In a worst-case scenario, as many as 40 percent of Americans could contract the disease, and 20 percent of those men, women and children would die. That’s 24 million people across the nation, and an estimated 1,700 people dead in Pinal County within a 12 to 18-month time span.
[snip]
Schryer said without a plan for coping, mass deaths across the country could cause near chaos. He said thinking ahead starts locally, and at home.
[snip]
“We look at it as house to house, each family has to be prepared because we’re not going to be able to look after everybody.
[snip]
“Pinal county’s goals are to limit death and illness and preserve the continuity of essential business and government functions,” he said. “(Also) minimize social destruction and minimize economic loss.
“We’re going to do that by working with all of our government and business partners to try to have them as prepared as possible. That way when there is a tremendous shortage of necessities you’ll at least have some sort of a stockpile to take care of people.”
I vote we run Pinal County Health director Thomas Schryer for President.
Pixie – at 21:16
I’d vote for him. I don’t know what his political affiliation is and I don’t care.
I don’t see what the hubbub is about what Dr. Dave posted. The scenarios are plausible and reconfirmed by virtually every poster or lurker who hangs around long enough to work through the reasoning. Some recoil initially, but by and large eventually come around. Given your average panflu (as Tom DVM has laid out) and our current civilization, what other conclusion is there?
The questions are only when and how bad?
The “professionals” are no more validating than our “hive-mind” conclusions.
Medical Maven – at 21:22
The scenarios are plausible and reconfirmed by virtually every poster or lurker who hangs around long enough to work through the reasoning. Some recoil initially, but by and large eventually come around.
Ditto
The negative comments directed toward Dr Dave reflect the old thread http://www.fluwikie2.com/pmwiki.php?n=Forum.TheWorstCaseScenarioDenialAsAnAdjustmentReactionV. While we laymen have speculated on civilization collapse, stemming in part from comments of untouchable experts like Osterholm and Levitt, it gets scarier when of our own fluwikians has a scary conversation with an expert having “insider knowledge”. It hits closer to home. Depending on one’s ability to accept the unthinkable consequence of pandemic becoming reality, some here will recede into denial and disbelief. The natural instinct is to disect every word and see if we can discredit his post. I did it myself.
Also a 30 year RN (ED and Infection Control) and personally know folks who go to pain management clinics and get RXs for oxycontin that is sufficient to stockpile and be used to OD a family of 5 at any given time.
I did not interpret it to mean that families would be brought onto the campus - just the staff. And any reasonable mass casualty-type plan worth its salt will utilize any staff that they can get for reassignment (remember, 1/3 of staff may become ill?)if needed and folks may be doing tasks they normally would not be doing. As for the janitor, environmental services and dietary staff will still be needed, even in a pandemic. MDs and RNs won’t be exclusive in a pandemic. Just the opposite.
Just my 02c.
JJF at 21:42-“The natural instinct……”
I think some people have a “logic” that more easily overrides instinct. And if you have had a few horrific happenings in your life, I believe that helps further along the process of accomodating the “unthinkable”.
“RPh – at 21:00
My god…. early 1800′s? I don’t think so.
If you haven’t, read Stephen King’s “The Stand”. A virus wipes out most of mankind with the exception of a small segment of the population (and cats) who seems to be immune.
All of the infrastructure, all of the refineries, factories, machines, resources are all still there. So is the know-how to operate it. It may take a while to get things back up to speed, but we won’t get stoned back to bashing flint nodes against our rock anvil.
And just think how much “healthier” the environment will be with 1/2 of the world’s polluters being recycled into fertilizer!
It will not, of course, get to that, but my point remains valid nonetheless. It may be sh!tty for a while, but the 21st century will re-emerge in due course.”
>Yes, I have read The Stand and I’m about to reread it. As I recall the plague moved very rapidly and only a tiny minority survived. They were able to live on what was left over. Hopefully,in our real pandemic, many will survive but they will also deplete available supplies quickly. I’m not saying civilization will not be salvageable, eventually, but how long will it take? How long is “due course”? We no longer have the infrastructure of the 1800s available to us. How will enough food be grown and transported to meet our remaining population’s needs. My husband and I are among the luckiest few. We live on an old farm that dates back over a hundred years. My husband is a superior mechanic and machinist and could out MacGyver just about anyone. We have horses and a hand plow, and heritage seeds. We have a hand water pump available, a shallow well, and a mountain stream in back of our house. How many people have these advantages? Not many, and I, one of the fortuate few tell you, I am scared to death to try to survive on what we have after our current stock of supplies is gone.
I don’t think you have been following all the threads here on collapse of the infrastructure. Is collapse a certainty. Of course not! It depends on just how bad the pandemic turns out to be. However it is certainly a possiblity. If it does happen it will be a miserable time for all who survive. And yes, in a worst case scenario, there will be a regression of civilization. Without knowing the particulars,no one, including you, can guess at how long it would take to re-establish our civilization to its present level.
How many years do you think you could make do, survive, and raise your family’s food, without gas and electricity and other necessities of the modern world? If only we had the option of having to live the life of the 1800s, I would be very happy.
Dr. Dave, thank you for having the courage and caring to post what you did. I think that the Dr. you spoke with on the plane was speaking the truth.
Medical Maven – at 22:12 I recall, during a ‘horrific happening’ in our lives my nephew saying “It’s happened a million times, same thing…” Just not to us.
RPh ¨C at 21:00 “My god¡. early 1800¡äs? I don¡¯t think so.”
I don’t think so, either, RPh. That is much to optimistic. I’m thinking circa 1450.
early 1800?
IMO it will be like the 1930′s depression era.
If the survivors would be able to just all get along together and work through the aftermath, it would be possible to rebuild civilization. The biggest problem about long-term survival I forsee is the “Mad Max everyone for themselves violent gang/thug/terrorist” mentality I fear will run rampant. It is how our society and world at large is poised to respond. It is my greatest fear…much more than the panflu. It will be, I believe, the final judgement mankind will bring upon itself. I pray that the best of humankind will prevail.
The UC Med School plan says they will use non medical staff, if needed, to contain the entry way, except that they won’t be required to “tackle” anyone (I can’t remember the exact words, but you get the drift). They also say (and this is underlined) that they will NOT be using any other part of the hospital for “surge capacity” and that they ASSUME that will be taken care of by the county using other hospitals (closed hospitals or not). I’m not sure how I feel about this plan, or the one mentioned above…I’ve been waiting for this for over a year now, but I guess in the back of my mind somewhere I was really thinking I was crazy (waiting to be proved wrong). Now I’m kind of numb. What to do? I’m not talking about prepping or not (I’ve done some of that…will do more tomorrow), but do I take the kids to Disneyland on a whim this weekend, in case it’s the last opportunity for us to be together and happy and carefree…or do I keep waiting and worrying…it’s not like anyone in my life, other than you people here, know how I feel. They don’t believe any of this and don’t even read about it. They wouldn’t know what Tamiflu was or what Phase 3 was. I feel very alone. And this isn’t something I can TRULY talk to my teenagers about, because it upsets them and they really are too young to have to worry about this. When I was their age, I was rushing home to watch “Dark Shadows” or something. The worst thing was that I had to go to bed early. I can’t imagine, really, how different it must be for our children right now then it was for us. I felt so safe when I was a kid…no worries in the world (except whether the boy I liked would like me back). Okay, enough of this. Is anyone else feeling numb, alone, don’t know what to do next, etc.?
At least your county has a plan.
Mine is still in the Draft stage.
What is “insider information” anyway?
Is it knowledge of a major outbreak somewhere which we don’t know about? - doubt it - we know everything. Is it knowledge of a key change in the genetic sequence? - I doubt it - Niman would be all over it Is it Knowlrdge supplied by John Edwards? - yea right.
I think it is one persons educated guess….. and concerning H5N1, who besides we here are more educated?
I’ve got some rumors for you… I have insider information - and I don’t know what the heck is going on!
Betty: Take the kids to Disneyland. If this thing does come, you will want them to have some happy remembrances until things get better. You have to concern yourself with panflu to the extent that you prepare for it as best you can, but you cannot let it consume your life or you will have no life. Enjoy the kids. You could get hit by a bus next week and then what? Life is precious. Protect it but then live it, as well.
Betty – at 23:40
I feel very alone
Betty,
You are not alone. Go to Disneyland. Let the kids be kids, and be a kid yourself. Have fun and soak up every laugh.
Betty - I am finalizing my Final get list…
Then in 2 weeks off to Bermuda for a much needed 4 day vacation… without my computer
Hope the world will still be here when i came back.
Well I feel that I need to jump in with my opinion about this rumor from Dr. Dave about this virologist and make some observations too. Why not there isn’t any news out of Indonesia and if there was I think more people would read this thread anyway.
First to post something like that does take a lot of courage, I know, I did something similar on another site and was not able to post for a couple of months because of the reaction to it. So I can speak on that from past experience and you don’t have to believe me or not, I don’t care.
Second it seems to post an opinion or an observation that does not follow the majority will pretty much get you the same result as the person who posted the rumor. You can get hacked to pieces either way here. Maybe that observation is due to my excess baggage, I’m sure someone will point that out to me if they believe that is the case.
The virologist in question is according to the quote at 7:04 is a PHD also. We both received our doctorates from the same university
He also did say he could bring his family to the medical center at 21:29.
we talked about the family issue and it seemed like his family had three months of preps, but if they had to flee they could join him in a dormitory room. I gather that this option is not open to his subordinates.
Oh and now for that word, subordinates, I guess that is where my excess baggage will show. Who are these subordinates, well that probably is everyone else, down to the janitor who may or may not work during a pandemic who knows, he is just a janitor after all. Let’s see the janitor that is a prepper try to get a prescription for a drug to euthanize his family from his GP describing a scenario that may or may not happen. Imagine your GP’s reaction if you asked for this prescription and told him why you wanted it. Imagine the reaction if you just wanted something in case a family member or yourself had an accident while SIP? Accidents will still happen. Imagine the reaction the janitor gets for asking for Tamilflu or even having the money to pay for it?
I think the “subordinates” would have something to say also when this virologist marches in his family and as it was stated above at 21:29 this is not an option for them. In my opinion this virologist sounds like an elitist snob. Maybe he should focus his energy on viruses more and then he may not have to worry about these things so much since his hide is obviously worth so much more than the “subordinates”.
Pugmom was trying to point out that the MD handed out the prescription to the virologist , not that these pills had been handed out to the family and friends yet. And on that point she thinks it is illegal to do so, I don’t know whether it is or not, but I do know several comments were made that would not have been if the 7:04 and 21:29 posts had been read by some. Pugmom has spent many many hours searching for valid news to inform you people, not rumors, on a thread that I am sure gets read less than this one does. She is entitled to post her observations about a rumor and be treated as well as many of you seems to think Dr Dave should be. I could be wrong there too but like I said before I am sure someone will point it out to me.
This thread and the way people react and treat each other when someone is not in agreement with the crowd or posts an unpopular opinion is an example of why I hesitate to post anything other than a translated Indonesian article here.
And while I am at it, I would love to see this much passion expressed in a way that would make a difference the next time WHO or TPTB somewhere try to put one of their BS updates or news stories out there to be swallowed hook line and sinker instead of us using our energy and time on rumors. We could really make a difference if we focused our energy that way instead of like this. Any ideas?
Ok now you all can have at me. I am slinking back to the Indo thread and staying there.
JWB at 20:58-you are right about moving on, it’s time
Influentia at 6:25-I hope most people read your post twice, thank you
Influentia2 – at 06:25 Thanks for all the work you do on keeping us up-to-date.
Well I will have to agree with influentias point of average joes frustration in not being able to get doctors to write lifesaving perscriptions but Dr bigshot can get his hand on suicide pills.Something wrong there.
Influentia - at 6:25: “And while I am at it, I would love to see this much passion expressed in a way that would make a difference the next time WHO or TPTB somewhere try to put one of their BS updates or news stories out there to be swallowed hook line and sinker instead of us using our energy and time on rumors. We could really make a difference if we focused our energy that way instead of like this.”
Now that, THAT, would be exhausting!
On the subject of writing scripts, I have encountered several doctors who have gotten Tamiflu for themselves and their families, and who still refuse to write me and others who ask fir it the same prescription. The sense of unfairness I have about that matter is a large one.
On the other hand, I do think that any medical people who are asked to work through a pandemic will present the demand to be provided with an entire pharmacopia of drugs in return for doing so. The person Dr. Dave spoke with is probably high up, and at this point may believe that his subordinates will not be provided with the same safety net that he (and perhaps his family) is provided with. If this is indeed the case, he is not alone in his beliefs probably.
However, let any physician try to run his hospital without their kitchen or janitorial staff and soon they will be living in the third world, fancy equipment and degrees or otherwise. All the hospital plans must cover more than their “top” people, and will have to do so with some equity, unless they presume that there will be some mechanism to ensure forced and yet productive and cheerful labor.
In fact, in a pandemic, the top doctors may be far less effective in truly nursing people through influenza than the kitchen and janitorial staff, along with the para-professionals. It will be basic hygiene and basic nursing skills that will save lives of the influx of people anyway, not the higly trained scientists who usually run things. Hopefully, those now drawing up pandemic staffing plans at hospitals understand that, but I wouldn’t hold my breath.
Influentia - at 6:25: “And while I am at it, I would love to see this much passion expressed in a way that would make a difference….
Please volunteer some of your passion to become a “news hound”. It’s for the benefit of all.
Pixie at 8:29: “On the subject of writing scripts, I have encountered several doctors who have gotten Tamiflu for themselves and their families, and who still refuse to write me and others who ask fir it the same prescription. The sense of unfairness I have about that matter is a large one.”
Well, Pixie, I probably shouldn’t tell you what really got me interested in tracking H5N1 (but I’m going to anyway!) About a year and a half ago, after hearing a really scary story from my doctor about how bad he thinks it is going to be, I asked him if he would write me a script, since it was going to be so bad and such. Well, he develops this conspiratorial tone and tells me something to the effect that the CDC is monitoring prescriptions for Tamiflu in order to track flu outbreaks. And although he’d try to get it to me some other way, it was really getting kind of scarce. Now mind you, I was just trying to get it for my young kids, who were also patients of his. So I bid him goodbye and went down to the drug store to get another script filled. While I was there, I engaged the pharmacist in a bit of idle chatter, as I usually do. This time I asked him about the scarcity of Tamiflu. He proceeds to tell me, “You know, it’s very strange. Never seen anything like it. We had plenty of Tamiflu, but you wouldn’t believe the number of doctors who came in to fill scripts for themselves, staff, etc.” Remember, watch what they do, not what they say. (And although that bit of drama took place awhile back, I figure it might as well go on the rumor thread since it can’t be corroborated by three sources of unimpeachable direct evidence, as clearly a few on this thread require. By the way, I’d really like to know which of you need this level of evidence for rumors so I don’t accidently pick you for a jury one day, especially if I’m representing the plaintiff!)
As to the matter concerning the janitor, I’m afraid we’ll all be in the same boat. We all rely on janitors. Outside of hospitals, they’re called sanitary engineers, or trash haulers in the vernacular. We also rely on firemen, the water department, etc., and I’m pretty sure none of them will be getting Tamiflu. Their revenge will be knowing what will happen in their absence. In fact, once the next pandemic is over, I’m pretty sure many of these people will never be under-appreciated again. And speaking of appreciation, let me once again express my appreciation to Okieman, Pixie, Commonground, Influentia2, Michelle in OK, Pugmom, and all of the others who have contributed to the all-important Indonesia news threads. Thank you!
CG I already have been for months since I got the internet. I cannot post as much as others do because I work all day but I spend 2–3 hours a night after working researching and posting anything I find out of East Java and have been since that thread began. I have posted about Abram and his sister, the 20 HCW’s involved, the recent sickness in Garut, the two kids from Central Java last week that no one seems to be able to agree on a diagnosis and many others. I have been posting since June after I taught myself how to translate. I have extensive files on many things I share that are Indonesian related. I came here in July or August to post Indo translations after the incident I described above that happened to me that is similar to Dr Dave.
Like I said not everything is getting read on that Indo thread but I thought you may recognise my handle at least. I do the best I can to find news in the 24 hours a day I get maybe I should post a little more since it seems even other Indo thread translators don’t recognise me. I have also been looking at PNG on that thread but I have not found anything to post.
And now my bubble is burst because I thought my countless “chickens in the river” articles on the Indo thread had made me just a little infamous.
Influentia2 - I think you are an Indo posting maniac!!
I think CG does too. I think her appeal was meant for the rest of the general audience here, not meant to pertain to you! (Sometimes things just come across funny when we write something). There are news lookouts needed for many, many areas. Hopefully many others will sign on as news hounds, and will become familiar with their particular news sources, before TSHTF.
Thanks Influentia2, for all you do! You are a pro and you set the standard.
Influentia2 – at 06:25 RE: subordinate
Just to clarify — “subordinate” is not a derogatory term. To call someone my subordinate is not saying that they are not valuable. I have 17 subordinates at work. Several of them have considerably greater knowledge than I have about USOCs and Promo Codes that affect T45 billing on a VTNS contract. They are still my subordinates. I am subordinate to my District Manager, who is subordinate to our Site Director. It simply indicates “order” (that’s the “ordinate” part of the word).
There is no reason to assume that Dr. Dave (or the person to whom he spoke) was referring to housekeepers, janitors or parking lot attendants when he used the word subordinates. Without further clarification, the proper presumption would be that he simply was referring to people who report to him … his subordinates.
I recognize your handle/posts from the Indo thread. I read that thread all the time, but don’t post because I feel like I don’t have anything to offer on that particular thread. I cant begin to thank you for all your hard work- It amazes me how you (and the other Indo posters can handle the translations)-that boggles my mind! I can’t begin to fathom how much time it takes to pull all those snippets of info out of all the stuff on the web. Many Many thanks are in order.
I also think CG was making a general appeal.
Commonground
Sorry my mistake. I thought you meant me. I apologise to you.
As for the usage of the word “subordinate” I think maybe my POV comes from my “excess baggage” and where I come from it is used as a derogatory term at times. I didn’t assume Dr Dave was referring to anyone as a subordinate but that he was relaying what the virologist said or implied. I am sure Dr Dave was only trying to relate this incident to us as best he could. I feel bad for Dr Dave, I don’t know him but I hope he continues to post. Well enough of this anyway, time to be constructive, not destructive.
I only wanted to say that we all are different, we all see things differently due to life’s events and their effect on us. We are a community here just like the ones we live in off the internet and it is a good thing to me that we have all a place and a chance to voice our opinions, share our experiences and hopefully even in a small way make some kind of difference. That’s all I have left to say and I am moving on.
Gosh Influentia2, my post wasn’t directed to you. You are part of our team.
Yes Commonground I realize that now after 4 cups of coffee and the alertness of others to realize it too and tell me. I apologise. Sometimes I take what I read personally and post before I think twice. I knew I would do something stupid before I got off my soapbox. Oh well, it isn’t the first time. Maybe we need a feature that comes out with a hook that yanks me off here by the neck before I say something else stupid.
Note to self: read twice, then don’t post:}
Influentia2- thanks for the chuckle. I’m on round 2 of my coffee. It’s really hard to try and interpret typed up posts, and it’s very easy to get confused as to how they are stated. Anyway, I’ll get back to more packing, and you get back to baking. Wish I was baking…..I love to cook, but haven’t been able to in about 6 weeks now. I’ll have fun in my new kitchen.
De Jure….And although that bit of drama took place awhile back, I figure it might as well go on the rumor thread since it can’t be corroborated by three sources of unimpeachable direct evidence, as clearly a few on this thread require. By the way, I’d really like to know which of you need this level of evidence for rumors so I don’t accidently pick you for a jury one day, especially if I’m representing the plaintiff!
Priceless!! And worthy of the quotes thread in my opinion!
Is anyone monitoirng cdcchatter.net? Might be a good place to check on if rumors start up in earnest.
Some people are pretty steamed over there at CDC. From an Oct. 12th post at CDCchatter.net:
In her recent e-mails to the CDC leaders and staff Dr. Gerberding diagnosed the malady ailing the agency as a chronic autoimmune disease. Dr. Gerberding has obviously misdiagnosed the grave illness that has been ailing CDC. We are not suffering from an autoimmune disorder, but from the worst case of encephalomegaly or brain tumor. Malignant growth surrounding what used to be the working brain of the agency keeps swelling ever bigger at the detrimental expense of the body. As a brain tumor usually does, this one has first distorted lines of communication between the brain and the body, and than severely impaired cognitive abilities. That is why the head keeps saying that everything is just peachy, even though the rest of the body is squirming and screaming in pain. http://tinyurl.com/yybe7u
I just added CDCchatter.net to my favorites, thanks for the source. It looks like interesting reading.
I know the rumors page has been the hotspot on this site for the last few days and it has been a bit of a rollercoaster ride, but could some of you check out the thread: “The Public Engagement Project on Community Control Measures”. There are some worthile conferences coming up for Community planning and rumor has it, this would be a great place to donate your time if you live near one. : )
Do you have a link?
Influentia2 That was a great post it brings to light one of the main failings of many of the plans being drawn up. Those at the top are going to protect themselves, but still expect the workers to work without the same benefits they may have. Thanks for all you do! Going to check the chat out
kc_quiet – at 19:52
Here it is:
The Public Engagement Project on Community Control Measures for Pandemic Influenza
Science Teacher – at 15:05
I’ve also put this on Tip of the Week on the Main Flu Wiki page. I agree, it’s very important for Fluwikians to go to these meetings.
Pixie at 14:21 That is why the head keeps saying that everything is just peachy, even though the rest of the body is squirming and screaming in pain.
A bit OT, but I just had to laugh. I don’t know if it’s true, but an oft told family story has it that the English pronunciation of the word peach is the same as the Turkish pronunciation of the Turkish word for bast*rd - or casting questions on whether your parents were marriaged when you were born. Common phrases used in my area are: peachy or you’re a peach. My family then asks: Turkish or Georgia? It’s late, I’ll go change my clocks and be quiet.
oops, Thanks for your help, Monotreme!
while I was puttering around in my kitchen this morning, the tv was running in another room, CNN headline news reported something about a virus in the Great Lake fish population. By the time I got over there, all I heard is that “virus causes the fishes’ internal organs to bleed!!-I don’t see anything documented about this on Cnn.com, so I’m posting it here on the rumor thread.
Worrywart 11:13 Go to H 5 N 1 in Michigan thread Blue Ridge Mountain Mama may have some more information there for you. She was asking questions about the same thing yesterday. We both have questions but only got responses from NS1. Maybe she can help you out.
worrywart – at 11:13 virus in the Great Lake fish
you might try this - (evem if it isn’t to funny).
Among species susceptible to the virus are popular sport fish such as chinook and coho salmon, rainbow trout, walleye and yellow perch.
Glad you’re all on top of this. I’m with TomDVM (and others) on this - something is altering, or has altered, our sweet deal here on planet earth. Pathogens are changing at an alarming rate.
Again recall the prescient words “Earth’s immune system is kicking in…”.
And, so, what are we, humans, exactly - friend or foe?
Wolf — at 11:31 I fear we are neither friend nor foe, but food.
Wolf — at 11:31 I fear we are neither friend nor foe, but food.
Sigh, computers, don’t I love them. That should be Gary, not IGary.
mj at 00:07:
My ex used to tell a funny story about “peach” and the Turkish word for “bastard.” When he was stationed in Turkey, a Turkish man went up to his then wife and pinched her. She turned around, pointed, and screamed the only word she knew in Turkish that applied -“Peach! peach!” The man was so embarrassed he fled.
Back to the WHO and the current pandemic level. Did some checking and this is what the WHO site states:
“The designation of phases, including decisions on when to move from one phase to another, is made by the Director-General of WHO.”
Candidates for the post of Director-General
The list of names, in English alphabetical order, and titles of the persons proposed by Member States for nomination by the Executive Board for the post of Director-General, as of 20 October 2006, is as follows. The Board will meet from 6 to 8 November 2006.
So, the Board will meet November 6th to 8th to elect a new Director-General. Will the level be elevated shortly thereafter? Maybe this is why no one at anon_22′s meeting discussed the level changing - because “officially” it hasn’t changed and won’t change until they have elected a new Director-General? Maybe 9′s sources are talking about an “unoffical” move to level 4?
Don’t know the answer - but interesting to watch, nonetheless.
12.TomDVM- (proposed by fluwiki)
cottontop. I am shocked and completely speechless…okay, if I was speechless, I wouldn’t be writing this.
I do not believe the World Health Organization would hire me to sweep the floors…but thanks for the vote of confidence.
I could nominate many on flu wiki…but I won’t because my list will be incomplete and I wouldn’t want to miss any.
There is someone I would be proud to work with…Dr. Nabarro after he becomes Director General of the World Health Organization.
cottontop - LMAO!!!!
Tom DVM - you would be GREAT and all of us would heartily support you!
Lots of rumors, filling up threads faster than you can say “Martians have landed in New Jersey”. ;-)
Closed and continued here