I have read all of the 5 grid threads (some more than once) but have not seen a clear delineation as to why the majority of the Grid would fail if CFR were to be over 5% to say 20%. For instance, physical transportation to coal burning plants might be slowed but is this due to the lack of human resources or physical resources being available? What about hydroelcetric and Nuclear facilities that require little commodity based input?
In other words, is the conclusion that the grid systems fail due to a lack of people to operate and maintain the grid or the interconnectedness of our supply economy? I understand that transmission and distribution are the inputs and outputs of the grid but I fail to see where transmission is at risk. Distribution, which is resource and system intensive could be impacted by a number of non panflu events and restoration with minimal resources would be problematical but not fatal. The distribution industry is primitive, under funded, and vulnerable without panflu but that appears to be on the ‘last mile’ side of the equation and not the actual power itself.
Looking for an honest rebuke here since a human resource challenge for the distribution side of the grid (whether systems or laborers) seems to be an easy fix before, during, and after Panflu.
The attack rate of 30–40% has been the reason give for abseenteeism more than the 5% CFR. Let’s hope it is only CFR of 5%.
Attack rate will put workers out because they are ill, or taking care of ill family members or greving over loss of love ones, or fear of going to work and getting it.
It would be a combination of events. Some power stations may go down due to lack of employees. Other will drop due to the lack of sufficient supplies to operate (Coal being the primary). Others will go down due to lack of spare parts. As each fail they will trip others which will cause them to fail. With a reduced staff, they will not be able to get the “good” plants back up in a timely manner and as the cascade continues, the entire grid will fail. You have to remember that when a major grid failure happens due to Hurricanes, workers from all around the country come in to bring it back up. The same was true for the North east black out a couple of years ago. (one station in Ohio went down and tripped most of the north east and parts of Canada for almost a week) Nothing is simple nothing is easy.
“since a human resource challenge for the distribution side of the grid (whether systems or laborers) seems to be an easy fix before, during, and after Panflu. “ “Laborers”. Yeah, right! All it takes is “laborers”. Interchangeable people you can grab to fill a spot.
Your view of “human resources” is a common one these days, and there are great strides in making things easier to build and operate. Clicking on an icon is certainly an easier skill to attain than typing in a complex command, which was easier than directly adjusting valves and meters. And sometimes it really is “running” or “fixing” something to click it with a mouse. But in the real world things need to happen, many of them most people don’t even know they exist. Did you know high tension power lines need to be cleaned at regular intervals to remove even dust buildup to prevent shorting (not to mention dead birds, branches, trash blown by the wind)? This requires helicopters and extremely well-trained workers. Control rooms, maintenance, the moment-to-moment management of power flow, routing around shorted wires and breakdowns,`huge trainloads of coal running over trackes that require massive maintenace crews, coal mines that need the same. And yet, the USA has spent the last 2 decades cutting trained manpower (too expensive!) and knowledgeable middle management (once considered the backup for front ine workers, now they are eliminated overhead) to the bone, even deeper than the bone. What is left of management are power climbers and bean counters CLUELESS about how the process they manage actually works, much less having ability to DO any of it or train anyone on how to do it (or even knowing what it takes to train someone. And HOW MANY workers have the kind of commitment once had to their jobs? Your benefits cut, maybe your job outsourced along with you in order to cut you out of the promised employee benefits of being loyal to your company to some contractor who has no future. Even your vested pension bankrupted out while corporate management triples theirs. Lots of sneaky practices to compromise overtime, job safety, policies.
You are going to see very high absenteeism. It wil be MUCH easier to count the ones who show up than the ones who don’t. You can call Manpower to send over some temps to make it all go, there will be lots of guys jumping into seats to take over, but the damage caused from these inexperienced people will be a significant factor in the overall failures. And these failures (I have spent about 1/4 of my career of building power plants actually reparing damage from operator error - firing a plant up is a careful process of the right mixture of natural gas and goal dust - get it wrong and BOOM you’ve made a crew of 30 men a month’s work welding the sides back on a boiler that is 80′x80′x200′ tall - and that crew needs machinery, lots of gas and diesal and power and natural gas for both the fix and the new startup). I spent 4 years in an apprenticeship involving detailed on the job training, and after hours schooling to get the point I was qualified to be on crew working on this, much more needed to be a foreman or manager. Good luck with the “laborers”. I now design real time control systems for hospitals, and most of the hospitals have no one on staff who truly understand the equipment they take care of. One or 2 key people out, and their systems will have real troubles as well.
Here is what my policy makers will argue:
If I lose 1/3 of my resource why cant I just adjust my schedule from 3 typical 8 hour shifts to two 12 hour shifts? If I were to lose 1/3 of my supplies why cant I just double up every other day when available?
Katrina was local and a 100% wipe out, this will be spread natioanlly, globally with an at worst (pick your favorite number here 25 to 50% absenteeism) spread out over several weeks. If we just run the bare minimum, and do maintenance only if absolutely necessasry, bend some rules, and take some risks to keep the grid standing, why cant we hold the grid up for a few weeks or even a few months with some luck? Granted, exogenous events, hurricanes, storms, etc, would expose our vulnerability, but I would rather be lucky than smart and hope to avoid these.
Now I know the policy makers arguement here is simplified, but how do you defeat the above logic? If we are neither resource nor supply constrained indefinitely, the policy makers looks to survive the few weeks of bedlam as though it were a strike related event.
Fiddlerdave – at 20:37
We posted at nearly the same time, I would like to know if there are any systems controls (one off unique systems) that are only known to just a few resources in typical power distribution or transmission plants and if so is that common. Its not hard to imagine a scenario—or sway a policy maker— where these types of control systems would not only fail but quite possibily never be fully restored if the few ‘resources’ were lost indefinitely.
If you look around this site, a number of health care worker have commented, “If TSHTF, I’m out of here,” “My kids come first,” etc. People in the general work place feel the same. Why? Because employers have NO LOYALTY towards their workers. None.
Employers will do NOTHING to provide masks and other safety equipment for 90% of essential workers in utilities, road repair, phone repair, snow plowers, and hospital health care workers,including the guy who cleans the floors and the independent contractors that service all the equipment that is vital to run a hospital.
Forget about people who work in traffic departments of “non-essential industries” such as shipping dispatch personnel, warehouse workers, and others who are low profile but essential in our day to day lives - the ones that make the trains go, the trucks go, drive the forklifts, load the trucks, etc. Without those people the country comes to a stop. And what is being done to make their jobs as safe as possible? Nothing. Are they being told to stockpile food and supplies for their families while they are quarantined at work, or actually given any financial help or seminars to help them do so? A few, maybe. Most are being told nothing.
And who is going to take care of these people’s kids while they’re at work? Nobody. And who is going to take care of their kids if they are exposed to pandemic flu at work and die or are permenently disabled? What pension? What health insurance? What long term disability paid for by the employer? What good is a 1 or 2 years-of-salary death insurance payment going to be for a two year old with no mommy or daddy?
I am sorry to say, these types of “penny wise and pound foolish” attitudes by corporations focused solely on the shareholders have destroyed people’s loyalty to the company. These days it’s “every man for himself” and we all know it. You can’t expect people to give unsewerving oyalty to their company above and beyond the welfare of their spouses, children and elderly parents, and know all along they will get nothing in return, not even a thank you. We’re not all a bunch of unselfish angels straight from heaven, we are human beings. We tend to treat other people the way we expect to be treated, and that includes our bosses.
LA Escapee – at 21:07
My policy makers are in the same position as the common worker and are always looking for the next ship to jump into like a rat on a foundering cargo vessel. There are many people that will step up regardless of compensation so the disgruntled employee conclusion fails. I need a strong business case built on logic that can defeat the current logic (stretch resources and employees for continuity of business operations and disaster management) in order to effect change. Fiddlerdaves key systems above, if applicable to power, could be part of it.
I just spent 10 weeks on re-fueling outages at 3 nuclear power plants. . . A unit can run 18 months without a re-fueling, longer if required.
Absenteeism will be THE key factor. . . Utilities have reduced workforce to minimum levels. Employees and contractors are shifted from plant to plant to fully staff outages. They could/would not let non-badged (trained & security screened) workers into these plants.
Delivery system must stay up along with production capabilities. Plants themselves require lots of online work besides intensive work during these outages. Nuclear provides only 20% of US “juice”.
LA Escapee – at 21:07 Employers will do NOTHING to provide masks and other safety equipment for 90% of essential workers in utilities, road repair, phone repair, snow plowers, and hospital health care workers,including the guy who cleans the floors and the independent contractors that service all the equipment that is vital to run a hospital.
Basics of Life: Let’s not forget you city’s water supply. I understand, without attendance, it’s only viable for 3 days.
“If I lose 1/3 of my resource why cant I just adjust my schedule from 3 typical 8 hour shifts to two 12 hour shifts? If I were to lose 1/3 of my supplies why cant I just double up every other day when available?”
It is important for employers/policy makers to look at every angle possible to keep their business going, especially if their business is considered vital. Since I don’t know what the jobs are, it’s tough to say of workers can function in 2–12 hourshifts.
Can they get to work? Will you be able to guarantee that they’ll be paid on time ie what is the contingency plan for your bank during a pandemic? What about your raw product suppliers? Just how seriously have they prepared-are they being honest with you re: availability of suppplies?
And the single most important question of all….on a personal level, how prepared are you? Your coworkers? Your employees? Have they been truly well educated on the risks of panflu, on how to prepare their own house?
If people are not personally prepared at home, then asking them to fulfill their job requirements is pretty much nil.
In business continuity of operations and disaster planning it is assumed that resources will be less than 50%, sometimes even less than that. The idea is just to hobble along far enough until daylight breaks and original order is restored. Most plans include a minimum of a few weeks with a slightly impaired load or performance. This is what the policy makers currently rely upon, and I have yet to see any evidence that it is in error. In other words, the grid remains up and running, albeit not at peak performance, but certainly not failing.
Fiddlerdave 20:37
You can call Manpower to send over some temps to make it all go
Not this one, eyes wide open here. Not all temps are clueless, sure I will run right out in a pandemic to fill in for somebody else. I work for who I want, when I want to. Employers may get some temps for the same reason a lot of other people will go to work at their jobs during a pandemic, and I suspect I am not the only temp in the USA that is visiting a forum and is informed either.
Furthermore
but the damage caused from these inexperienced people will be a significant factor in the overall failures.
I cannot begin to tell you the things I have had to come in and learn to fix when the experienced person is not there to cover up his/her mistakes etc. after getting employment elsewhere or being let go or whatever. Not all temps are stupid, this one is pretty versatile and not all temps will be coming in to fill jobs for workers that are SIP. Temps are like everyone else so if employers really think this is an option, I would think again.
I really hope if any employers read this thread it gives them a clue.
It seems the “greed is good” folks are going to get their comeuppances along with the rest of us. They have cut corporations to the bone in their relentless search for short term profits.
There is now no surge capacity or redundancy in any business. There is often no training done either.
Guess what happens after a really disastrous pandemic guys? Especially if the CFR is over 10%?
TPTB will suddenly discover that an MBA isn’t worth much anymore, knowing how to fix a car or a water supply will be worth plenty. There will not be enough skilled workers to do whats needed. House prices and the price of other fixed assets will plummet.
In addition, once skills get in demand, skilled labor will become highly expensive, workers will suddenly discover they have far more options than they do now. Even Wal Mart and Mc Donald’s fodder will find better jobs are readily available.
Cheaper fixed assets plus high wages means that the little man can get out from under again and probably become his own boss if he wants to.
The response of TPTB will be almost immediate and predictable if history is any guide. They will pass laws that makes it an offence to leave an employer without giving at least six months to a years notice. However the laws won’t work, just like they didn’t work after the black death in the middle ages.
Now you can call me a crusty old recalcitrant non politically correct Walrus for saying this, but I have used the word “He” rather than something more politically correct, because if there is a disastrous pandemic, I believe long term survival will dictate that the division of labour between men and women will return to a much more traditional pattern. Sorry girls.
All right, I’ll call you a crusty old Walrus. ;)
Regarding the division of labor returning to a more traditional pattern - don’t you think there might be a lot of young widows with young children whose husbands went to work during a pandemic and died?
At the World Trade Center, a lot of the dead were husbands - bread earners - whose wives were already living a more traditional lifestyle due to the fact that their husbands had good paying, white collar jobs and could support a young family.
During a pandemic, this same type of men - management - would be expected to stay and fill in for lower level folk that bugged out when the gettin’ was good, due to low paying jobs not being worth risking one’s life over. Interested in getting your point of view, Walrus. There is some virtue in the idea that in less secure times, women would want to stay home - but could they? No hubby, no wage earner, except Mom.
‘Mom’ will not be able to earn a wage as she will be trapped at home with the children in prophylactic quarantine!
it sometimes takes several days for power line workers to get to us in the rural areas when storms or car accidents take out the lines - just imagine if line workers are ill or dead - or have no gas for their vehicles to get to you! I am not counting on power!!
Just made it to page 144 of the blackout final report from the US and Canada (2004) where they document the root cause analyses in the cyber timeline…I think I might need a beer and re-analyze the continuity of operations plan for the grid since you can only limp along if you have the right resources and systems in your disaster recovery plans. It appears there are low on both in even the best of times.
If the power companies could run with 33% less workers, don’t you think the MBA’s in the corporate suite would already be DOING it ?
It’s not possible, and I pity your adjustment reaction when the grid cascades into failure around week 2 (maybe sooner if it’s during bad weather)
You’re going to replace a journayman with 10 years of training with a 19 yr old National Guard kid ?
Good luck with that.
Hope is not a plan.
Anon for now – at 23:37 Now you get it. Power failures happen all the time, However; with the right resources and people in place, they are able to put it together again. With Just in Time delivery and with a bare bones work force, a Pandemic will destroy the ability of the power companies to deal with the failure’s. All power companies would need at least a six month supply of parts and equipment along with fuel for the generators. They would need to almost double their work force now and train them to handle the surge in demand and the loss of staff. No power company is going to do that. The grid will fail. Once down it will take a long time to bring it back up as you do not just flip a switch. First you must check all of the transformers and switching stations (manpower) then you have to start the generators, (manpower) then you have to set your cycles to move in to the grid (manpower). When you flip the switch, you have to have crews ready to go out and repair damage that you did not see or damage caused by the load suddenly hitting the transformers (more manpower). As I said nothing is easy nothing is simple.
Anon for now,
Keep checking this thread over the next few days. Fiddlerdave and several other regulars here on the fluwiki with electric industry experience will see this thread and comment. I and others will try to keep it “bumped” to the top so it will be visible. You need information and it sounds like you are in a position to influence some decision makers. We will try to get you more information.
Anon For Now – at 20:50
“..I would like to know if there are any systems controls (one off unique systems) that are only known to just a few resources in typical power distribution or transmission plants and if so is that common.” What an excellant question! And you sure have the policymakers’ arguments down pat! However, “take some risks to keep the grid standing” and “rather be lucky than smart” is what we are doing NOW, though. The policymakers have no scale of reference for this change. The comments about attack rate are exactly true. 30–40% attack rate will put 50 to 60& of your workforce out because you have the sick AND the caretakers BOTH out. Who’s going to leave their spouse alone with the kids while they are blue, gasping or raving in fever? By the end of 3 months some of the first sick may recover enough to work. Plus everyone who just won’t go to work. This IS NOT a “few weeks of bedlam”. They really should do some review of the actual course and conditions of people infected with H5N1. It would be easier to handle economically if everyone who got it died immediately - the sick will consume immense amounts of labor by the well, and most are out for a LONG time, if they survive. Spouses will die of the strain, or commit suicide in much higher numbers, not very reliable a workforce. You must not assume ANYONE will function anywhere near their median capabilities at work. There will be panics and scares if someone coughs, “going postal” by people who have lost spouses or children or who think they have caught it. Stealing by inside or outside. General depression and anger. Rumors by the truckload. Complete uncertainty day to day. But power plants and distribution need to run 24/7, wtih people working with: heights, pressure chambers, 500,000 volts, balancing power loads all need COMPLETE CONCENTRATION. By pros. Right away.
Your question makes me regretful my current specific knowledge of actual controls in the power industry is nil. In general, in hospitals 1 to 2 of the workforce has some understanding of ANY of their complex systems, and the rest just do a reset, then call the specialist or outside service if that didn’t fix it. A power industry “depth of knowledge of critical systems” survey I do wish I was wealthy enough to do! I imagine Y2K work did get alot of arcane controls updated, but I am sure there are a number of many-decades-old tricked-out working switching networks running. I think the only way to find an answer to that question would be to talk with technical managers at different line or generation companies. I am sure there are, and that there are also unique situations of standard components jury-rigged or planned from place to place. Even if someone knows a technology well, when you walk in a new building or application, you have to learn the local details, customizations, vulnerabilities, settings.
I will look around a few boards and see if I can find anybody inside who might comment on that.
I am only a consumer of electricity in Ontario, Canada, but I vaguely remember talk about shutting down all factories to avoid a repeat of black out of 2003, should a spike occur again.
In the event of a failure and even if we can avoid complete collapse of the grid by turning off heavy industrial users, it would mean huge economic losses. TPTB will find it cheaper to fix the Grid problem now than to face the short fall of tax revenue (no business = no tax and social chaos costs). I hope some one ‘in the business’ come to this thread and tell us. When faced with a 40% staff shortage, which consumers will see any power, and for how long, before it completely shuts down.
I think rather than shutting down the heavy industrial users, they will first try to have them ‘pedal back’ and use less - that may or may not be effective. Eventually I doubt that industry will have workforce to stay ‘up’ anyway, nor customers to buy their product - that is why they are predicting such a catastrophic financial sector disaster.
I am Former Anon Now Fiddlerdave – at 00:29 Okieman – at 00:23
Thanks much for the insights and pending information on the grid, it will prove valuable. As a reformed headchopper to CEO’s of large agencies and fortune 500--and I’ll leave it at that—my job was to move large organizations around like chess pieces to ‘optimize’ it for profitability, or cost reduction. That usually meant automation with head count reduction and after doing that for awhile, neither the money nor the many beers that the money bought could erase the sullen gazes I’d see from people that were not even considered a pawn but a part of the pawn (organization). Enough of my sud story…
I cant guarantee any results, but since my days have been few short and bitter I see no reason not taking the risk of moving a business case forward that might very well improve others.
The tool of the trade is a simple business case that can either reduce resources or increase resources. Its not always a cost decision, thus, if business viability can be proven as threatened, a resource increase becomes an increasingly convincing business case. It is obvious to me, and I am not a utility industry expert, that a policy maker would simply need to forward the business case as part of a humble rate increase to the public utility commission to insure services. Since the documents would live forever in some public database and the business case was submitted with known high risks, high impacts, it seems only logical that one would go forward with a resource increase as they are needed anyway.
Even if rejected for a rate increase its the policy makers job to perform a risk mitigation based on the business case if unable to execute. For want of a slight operational budget increase the city was lost? Rumsfeld ignoring generals, and feds ignoring NOLA planning scenarios come to mind here.
There is enough codified information out there today that would support the scenario of a pandemic with a 10% or more CFR and just as in Katrina, folks cant say that the risk was unforeseeable: instead, they meet the business guillotine team. And that team cures all illness.
“A tisket, a tasket”?
;-) Hey, thanks for “reforming yourself”; nice to think it happens.
(Now, to digress, I have another severe pang of coveting Fiddlerdave as a person in my I-wish pandemic neighborhood - at least I hope wise, experienced, people like him survive.)
(What good are CEO’s in a pandemic year or two or three? Can they keep order in the streets? Can they cut up a fallen tree to unblock a road, and, make firewood? Can they midwife and end up with a healthy mother and baby? Can they grow food? Prevent an infection? Counsel traumatized people so they can stand living when they thought they couldn’t? Can they see our current lifestyle is damaging the environment for future generations? Will they care for deceased employees’ dependants? Will all their CEO money on paper be worthless?)
“In business continuity of operations and disaster planning it is assumed that resources will be less than 50%, sometimes even less than that. The idea is just to hobble along far enough until daylight breaks and original order is restored “
One to three years? This is not like any localized, limited-term, mutual-aid-available disaster any of the business “planners” have seen in their lifetimes.
Business cannot expect loyalty and ultimate sacrifice from people who are treated like expendable “resources”.
A high-fatality pandemic and its collateral damage will cost society knowledge, expertise, and brains that can’t be quickly nor easily replaced, and, those lost will not teach the next generation; who will be able to?
What will make a more sustainable, robust, electrical grid?
As posted elsewhere, I maintain that preparing to quarantine power plants and control centers is the only sensible approach. This means housing, food, and water for essential workers and their families. Let’s face it - no worker would be willing to leave their family to fend for themselves during a cataclysmic pandemic. It also means XX months of fuel stock piled at the plants.
The workers should be very thankful they have a safe place for themselves and their family without having to go to the prepping lengths that many fluwikians have. I’m not aware of even one fluwikian who is very confident that their preps will see them through, no matter how extensive their preps are. An employer providing a safe haven would be quite a bonus. Whether workers would have the insight to realize the significance of this gift I don’t know. I’ve seen posts saying workers should be provided incentive or hazardous duty pay. That might be needed for a week or two. But when workers get word that their neigborhood is in chaos they will likely be willing to work double shifts for free.
This stategy eliminates most of the supply chain and worker sick time issues pointed out on all these threads.
There would still be routine relatively minor problems to be addressed depending on circumstances. If a squirrel or tree limb takes out a distribution feeder the people served by that feeder may or may not get their power back. That’s 3,000 customers off and it’s unfortunate for them. It’s alot better than 300,000,000 though, which is what you’ll have if quarantine is not maintained.
It’s been pointed out many times that plants will go off line for lack of a spare part. That’s true. But’s there are lots of plants. They won’t all break. Plants that are broke can be scavenged for spare parts. The workers from broke plants can be used at operational plants experiencing worker attrition. Some workers will have greater loyalty to extended family members than their job and leave. They can’t be let back in. With quarantine in place, enough plants could be kept on line to at least supply critical infrastructure and maybe even residential customers. Without quarantine a 1918 level pandemic spells death for 99% of our technology dependent population.
I’m not aware of any utility preparing for what I’m speaking of. They might be secretly doing so as not to cause alarm. But I doubt it. At some point this would have to be explained to workers prior to pandemic arrival.
The trigger would have to be pulled early for this to work. False alarms would be more like drills.
It is very sad that TPTB won’t enact this plan due to cost. Cost is insignificant compared to cost of not preparing.
Jumping Jack Flash – at 08:31
“I’m not aware of any utility preparing for what I’m speaking of. (skip) It is very sad that TPTB won’t enact this plan due to cost.”
As discussed previously, numerous utilities have researched this issue extensively and have specific plans in place for limited protective sequestration. Not to the full extent that you suggest, but it has nothing to do with cost. The utility workers at these companies, and their bargaining units have all had input into these plans, and have rejected long-term sequestration.
The PTB in many of these cases that are moving the decisions are the workers and their families, not utility executives.
“I’m not aware of any utility preparing for what I’m speaking of.”
I can report that the coal-fired plants in my area are not making any efforts to stockpile more fuel. Obviously this is not something they can do overnight, it might take a year for them to all make a significant increase in their stocks. It all comes down to costs, who is going to pay for it? The cost down the road will be horrific, but nobody wants to think about that happening.
I agree completely with JJF, If I worked in a power plant, I would much rather be in a safe work environment, knowing my family was also safe than sitting at home nevously counting my canned goods, candles, and sterno containers.
I assume people know about this conference Dec. 12 and 13 in Nashville, TN? Sure wish I could be a fly on the wall there….
https://www.euci.com/conferences/december-06/1206-pandemic-influenza.php
“The moment when a natural occurrence, usually of low probability, becomes a disaster is based on the degree of preparedness for the specific event. We know that there will in fact be influenza pandemic such as we saw in 1918 and again in the middle of the twentieth century. The question is when and how infectious. Currently, the existing strains of H5N1 that are causing the most alarm have a long way to go regarding generations of mutation before they really pose a viable threat to humanity, especially in developed nations with sanitation and public health infrastructure. However, virus mutations are unpredictable and the influenza strain that ultimately leads to a pandemic may be closer to infectious stage than H5N1. The reason that utilities and all businesses need to have a pandemic preparedness plan is that pandemic flu could immobilize as much as 40 percent of the work force across all industry. This includes the water and power utility industry. Water is the backbone of our public health system and with an unsecured supply of infected water the virus will quickly spread. Our water supply can not be secured and treated without adequate electric power supply. Most, if not all, businesses require electricity for day to day business continuity. Without a pandemic influenza preparedness plan, utility companies will not be able to provide power to our public health or economic infrastructures.
Pandemic Influenza: Maintaining Utility Operations and Business Continuity will discuss in-depth what the issues are regarding human resources and utility business continuity, what the biggest barriers to success may be, perceived best practices for ameliorating the impact of a decreased workforce and lessons learned from previous drills and cases in which workforce was immobilized.”
The problem with closing down industry to save electricity is that you have to be carefull about cutting off fuel and spare parts for the power plants when you do.Some industrial closings would help,however.The aluminum industry uses a big chunk of the nations electricity and is concentrated in the southeast and northwest.Those areas would benefit greatly by aluminum plant closures.There would have to be action several weeks ahead of need due to the fact that the smelters have to be drained of their charge and cooled down slowly or you will ruin them.With regard to costs to the power industry,stockpiles consist of things they are going to use later anyway so the expense would be a one time charge to be recovered later if nothing happens.
The typical scenario as I see being in the utility field. Our utility territory has a mix of generation the comprises Coal, Oil, Natural Gas, Hydroelectric and Nuclear. We have the ability to get coal from PA to power our plants 100%. We dont however due to ozone requirements. These will be allowed to go out the window should a major fuel problem arise. We are very prepared to quarantine our workers and supply them with stock piled fuel and antibiotics. Our largest concern is not generation but distribution failures and repair especially during power outages and potentially unruly neighorhoods. We urge our customers to have back up generation and alteast one to two weeks worth of fuel (cooking, heating and generator) on hand to handle extended delays of fixing downed power lines. Getting our crews to fix lines is our largest concern.
To clarify, the power outages my come in the form of natural, man-made (accidents), equipement failure. Crew size reduction will definately cause a drop in response time from less than 24 hours to perhaps 3–5 days. If a major storm occurs, triage is performed on the power grid much like a hospital. Important industries get treated first, i.e. hospitals, police, prisons, fire, water treatment plants etc. We work our way down to primary roads, secondary roads and finally the outskirts of town. We need to make sure lines and distribution legs are sound before we energize circuits.
“We are very prepared to quarantine our workers and supply them with stock piled fuel and antibiotics” Did you mean, “food” too? Have the workers had the Pneumovax? What about the Rx meds some workers may be relying on currently?
Are “stakeholders” federal, military, state, local, coordinating now; roads/security transport, ect? “We have the ability to get coal from PA to power our plants 100%.” The details would be reassurring … considering how the highways looked ahead of Hurricane Katrina, and, how many people seem to be planning on relocating/reuniting family after pandemic starts, instead of right now, and how much of the public is totally unprepared and may go out and about, regardless.
We dont see the railways being greatly affected or natural gas supplies. We have plans to roll the fuel switching between industries to protec certain infrastructure. As I said, its the distribution interruptions that we see as our greatest concern. What good is a power plant if the lines are down. We can keep the plants running. Getting and keeping power to the public is will be the greatest challange.
ok who is with me….group buy on solar panels?
My main concern is still something someone in the industry brought up weeks ago. Nuclear power plants do not generate the electricity to run themselves. They need and use external power to run the cooling pumps and other vital things. I beleive it had to do with needing stable power and the raw power was all over the place but I could be wrong on that. So I am thinking we wont even be able to count on nuclear long at all. Is it even possable to shut them down compleatly for long periods of time with no external power? Does this question depend on the design of the plants? I know there are several working designs in the US alone. I am within 50 miles of several plants and the only thing I can imagine worse than a pandemic involves those plants. Another thing, When I was at school they had a isotope reactor on campus and right after 9–11 they had machine gun carrying guards at the facility. My question is if everyone is sick whos guarding these disasters waiting to happen?
So, there are railways from the power plant to the coal mine pile? No truck drivers on roads? How many weeks of food is stockpiled at the power plant? (Sorry for the dumb questions)
Would telling the public now they will be asked to conserve help any? Would planned, “rolling blackouts” help keep people home at certain times of day/night that would be most helpful for keeping civil order?
Has word been passed down to make sure local power lines are clear of tree branches, and, all normal maintenance, ect, is up to date (I don’t care if “it’s not in local budgets”; do they want their power lines to fail during times no mutual/outside aid may be forthcoming?), supplies stockpiled, no more JIT ordering? Utility providers could be adding things in their bills to remind customers there are times they will need to tough it out, and tips on how to do so safely. Telling them learning how to do so will help them during an influenza pandemic that the federal and state governments have already said it is too big for them to rescue you would help (sigh).
Max, Dont worry about nuclear power. First of all, they can run themselves for atleast 18 months and all plants have back up rods for another 18 months. Secondly, even on a cold start, there is ample onsite back up generation and fuel for multiple restarts. Its a non-issue. Distribution continuity is our largest concerns. We have an enourmous list of licensed electricians in our territory that we work with regularly performing house and commerical ty-ins that will readily be available to join our work crews if we have problems. There risk is far less working on a road crew than in someones house. They will be glad to be paid to work outside at low risk rather than inside.
Wow the first good news I have read in a long time. :)
How many trained workers can you lose and still have enough left after 18 months who know how to safely operate the nuclear power plants - (how many are worldwide? Wish I hadn’t thought about those…)
Road crews hopefully will have armed security details with them… Have a nice day, Okidokie.
Okidokie – at 09:57
Nuclear power plants genrally consume 40 −50 megawatts (enough to power 20,000 - 25,000 homes). These plants typically have 3 backup diesel generators with a capacity of 3 megawatts each. That is sufficient to shut down the plant safely and run emergency cooling pumps. This is not sufficient power to start and operate the plant at full power.
Also, nuclear plants are required to have adequate power from off site or they are required to shut. Whether these restictions would be waived if faced with a pandemic I don’t know.
I can only speculate that the shut down restrictions may remain place if the grid starts to fail. The logic being that at least there would not be melt downs rendering surrounding land uninhabitable for thousands of years. I wish I shared the same optimism as you, and sincerely hope I’m wrong.
Do you have any links to published utility pandemic plans? When I google that topic all I get is slide shows. PJM used to have their plan on their web site but took it down. While their plan was the best I’ve seen, it does not go to the lengths I suggest.
SIP power plant workers? Well if that is possible you would need an army around it to prevent the thousands of parents with starving children from storming the fences for food.
You would also need to SIP coal miners and their families. Need an army to protect their supplies as well.
I pray that I am wrong but I just don’t see this happening. It’s a logistical nightmare with a massively stressed out human factor.
Annoyed Max—Not mad yet – at 09:49 “ok who is with me….group buy on solar panels?”
You probably said it in jest, but I know that I would buy, and so would many others here on the Wikie. Probably deserves its own thread, and someone knowledgeable to take the lead (Eccles, where are you?) And from the sounds of things, we should get them sooner rather than latter.
JWB at 11:21
— hmmm.. that could be a good reason for not making public any plans for SIP power plant and coal mine workers. Maybe there’s a reason for some secrecy on this issue?
Average Concerned Mom – at 11:35
I hope so. I hope they are making secret plans.
But you know what they say about hope, and if you want to make God laugh, show him your plans.
If the armed forces can sustain 200,000 troops in Iraq, surely they can sustain those same 200,000 troops gaurding power plants and sustain the power plant workers.
No?
The troops are sustained with regularly delivered supplies. The people sustaining the people at the power plants then need sustaining, and so on, and so on.
You can’t dissect and isolate a sector from the whole without killing both.
IMHO
I have an analogy that I guess illustrates my perspective.
Let’s look at our civilization as a singular complete human being. The heart and it’s blood vessels (circulatory system) is the electrical grid. The respiratory system the fuel for the plant. The diaphram muscle the coal miners. The digestive system is the agriculture sector, etc. You get the picture. They are all dependent on each other. Interrupt or completely shut down one and sooner rather than latter they all stop functioning.
If that body gets a bullet in it, attempts to just keep the heart beating and ignoring or unable to assist the rest is pointless. Yes you can buy some time performing cpr, but at some point everything has to start clicking in unison again.
And H5N1 is the bullets in a machine gun, we are against the wall, and the crack of dawn is upon us.
IMHO
If someone can layout a detailed plan how to keep the grid up without just saying SIP power plant workers, I would love to see it. It would be welcomed good news.
JWB, nobody is going to be storming the power plants, dont worry. Besides, after a couple of people were shot and killed, that would put an end to that. Additionally, if your only source of electricity is the power plant, you wont mess with it.
I said it before and I will SAY IT AGAIN, power generation is a non issue. Distribution reliability MAY BE an issue.
Okidokie – at 13:29 Additionally, if your only source of electricity is the power plant, you wont mess with it.
All the electricity in the world won’t fill your childs stomach.
said it before and I will SAY IT AGAIN, power generation is a non issue.
I wish I had your optimism!
Distribution reliability MAY BE an issue.
I agree with you on that, just a difference in degree.
JWB,
Food and water availability issues are based upon the availability of electricity. The whole notion of hungry and thirsty masses is based upon the failure of electricity. If it is maintained, then the concern of people rushing power plants or other places becomes moot by and large.
Okidokie – at 13:29 JWB, nobody is going to be storming the power plants, dont worry… Additionally, if your only source of electricity is the power plant, you wont mess with it.
Don’t know much about mob psychology do you.
In the LA Riots, the mobs were burning out stores and infrastructure in their OWN neighborhoods.
Your assumption is based on flawed conclusions that are not supported by historical information.
“JWB – at 13:45 Okidokie – at 13:29 Additionally, if your only source of electricity is the power plant, you wont mess with it.
All the electricity in the world won’t fill your childs stomach.
said it before and I will SAY IT AGAIN, power generation is a non issue.
I wish I had your optimism!
Distribution reliability MAY BE an issue.
I agree with you on that, just a difference in degree. “
Did you guys ever consider that you might BOTH be right - depending on the severity of the pandemic?
Okiedokie - Can you offer us something other than your restated confidence? Many arguments have been raised against your positions, and I don’t see a lot of specific or convincing refutations. To me, the problems of constant supply of coal for coal-fired plants is very vexing. I live within about a mile a large coal fired plant, and they seem to get about one train load of coal a day. Every day. They maintain an apparently very large coal pile, but they have told me is is good for less than a week. That coal has to come from a fully staffed and functioning mine, be transported on an adequately staffed and functioning railroad, pass through many localities that may or may not be willing or able to let the trains through, it, only then, gets to your power plant with its willing-to-scrifice-their-families workers. Might I add, all these similarly willing to sacrifice workers along the way will need food. And water. And medicine. From other workers who will also need the same. I hear your confidence, but in my long years I have heard many a confident man who turned out to be completely, profoundly wrong.
Okieman – at 13:54
Food and water availability issues are based upon the availability of electricity.
While it’s true that without electricity you won’t have water and food, assuming that if we have electricity then we have water and food is incorrect.
“ARE very vexing” Then there is the comma. Sigh, it is difficult to proofread your own writing.
There will be problems, but the problems will be more severe in the distibution of electricity then in the generation. One large tree goes down, or a substation blows up. Those occurances could affect 10′s of thousands for weeks on end. If this happens in the winter, its big trouble. If you were hungry, would you storm a power plant or a food store, or a neighor, or someone who already died. Get a grip people. The LA riots you had bands of youths burning for fun cause they could. Hoodlums. The didnt own any of their own infrastructure. Most major power plants are not in the center of cities. Many have been relocated to more well protected areas. There are exceptions, but overall, its not generation, its distribution. My say is, help out if you can. Call in downed trees ahead of time or trees that are ready to fall. Prepare ahead of time. Bird Guano, well never mind.
The food stores will be empty within a week. So will your neighbors pantry. My point is people are going to be in survival mode. They will go get food where they think it is, where it is rumored to be, and where they knowwhere it is. It doesn’t take an Einstein to figure out that if the electricity is still on then obviously the people at the plant are eating. If 1% of the population of a given area decide that they now need the food at the power plant, that’s thousands of people with the same target in mind.
And if you think shooting a few trespassers will solve it you’re sadly mistaken. Those trespassers will also surely be armed (and desperate).
now its getting ridiculous. OK power plants will be down for good in 7 days once this starts. Prepare to SIP with 2 years worth of food and water and no electricity. Problem solve. No get to work.
No more ridiculous than your assertions, without evidence that, it’s going to be a mere blip on the radar for a couple of weeks.
I’m not in the crowd that says things will be down for good, but there is a HECK of a lot of white space between “fully operational” and “for good”.
The coal miners will all report to work and mine the coal, the train engineers will all report to work and drive the trains, the laborers will all unload the coal at the power plants, the ships will all unload LPG at the offshore terminals, the pilot boats will all be unaffected. The large machine parts for the turbines will all arrive from Germany just on schedule ?
So far all I see is a VERY unrealistic assumption of how interconnected systems operate, and the unintended consequences of JIT.
Just because you say it’s so, doesn’t make it so without some evidence to back up your number’s claims.
Especially for those of us who have been doing Crisis Management and Business Continuity planning for YEARS.
That dog don’t hunt.
Okidokie – at 16:17
I sure hope you are not involved in any utility pandemic planning.
Jumping Jack Flash – at 10:29
“Nuclear power plants genrally consume 40 −50 megawatts. These plants typically have 3 backup diesel generators with a capacity of 3 megawatts each. That is sufficient to shut down the plant safely and run emergency cooling pumps. This is not sufficient power to start and operate the plant at full power.”
While it is certainly true that you cannot blackstart a nuke with its diesels, once it is synced into the grid and ramps up, it clearly generates plenty of power to take care of its internal needs. So, in other words, if a nuke is the only unit running on the grid, it can easily continue to operate.
Gary – at 14:12
“I live within about a mile a large coal fired plant, and they seem to get about one train load of coal a day. Every day.”
You are right on, Gary. Standard operation is 110 car unit train each day. When the RR workers begin to fall ill, SIP, etc. the number of train loads per week or month is likely to drop accordingly. Most plants no longer carry three-month supplies of coal like in the good ole days, so reliance will enivitabley turn to the nukes, gas-fired and oil-fired generators. How long they can be sustained is anyone’s guess.
The nuke plant, if running, can certainly support it’s own needs. However, the Nuclear Regulatory Commision (NRC) regarding offsite power requirements. If sufficient transmission at sufficient voltage is not available to supply the plant, it must shut down.
That’s today’s rule. The wild card is would those rules be waived in a pandemic. I don’t know. I sense that the rule would remain.
crfullmoon – at 07:33 “What will make a more sustainable, robust, electrical grid?”
My concern with the business continuity and disaster recovery plans and lack thereof is that one needs a current state of readiness in which to use as the norm for operation. The grid has been exposed for some time in even the best of conditions, particularly on the distribution side. Reading the root cause analysis in the US Canada report (go to page 144) for the prior blackout was enervating to say the least. Only one guy was watching the critical alarms with no back-up when he went to lunch! There was no back-up to restart IT systems or software and on and on the nightmare reads, and that is standard procedure? The last mile of distribution to the consumer needs to be written off for now as a loss thus concentrating efforts and available resources for critical infrastrucutre during the pandemic.
It is clear to me that resources need to be added now to deepen the bench as sheltering resources during a pandemic assumes that the resources and utilities will know in advance that the pandemic has arrived. That logic is fatally flawed particularly with pandemic H5N1 available to move 600mph in an aluminum bird and a known 24 to 48 contagion to symptom response from influenza. In other words, it is possible and likey that one would quaranteen an infected individual with the healthy ones. Thus, the only real hedge is to deepen the resource bench now for both generation and distribution.
There are other concerns as well, including the integration points of systems, software, and other dependent infrastructure such as rail etc. But I think starting by adding resources at the hub (generation and distribution) makes the most sense, otherwise it is literally and figuratively lights out.
I wonder if we should also consider the demand side of electricity? With workers sick, a lot of industrial-commercial activities will shut down or be restricted. Normal residential use is only 37% of demand. I imagine that electricity might be supplied on a priority basis to critical sectors such as food, refineries, water and sewerage. That would be part of planning if we are lucky and quick reactions if we are sort of lucky and slow reactions if we are unlucky. The point is, we will be using less too. In other countries, and during brownouts here, it is common to have power cuts for so many hours a day. You can still keep food cool, the house warmish and cook, but not all the time. That is uncomfortable but not the end of civilization.
Former HeadChopper – at 20:06 . . . .”It is clear to me that resources need to be added now to deepen the bench as sheltering resources during a pandemic. . .”
The utility for Northern Illinois (formerly Com Ed, now Exelon) had a rate reduction of 20% in 1997 THEN a rate freeze in place since then. . . The peoples are screaming that the 20% to 50% rate increase scheduled for 2007 is out of line and the legislature is talking 2 more years of rate freeze. . .
Do you think they are stockpiling coal or even food and meds for nuclear plant workers???
P.S. CEO makes $27 million a year with top 5 exec’s pulling down a total of $50 million a year
Most nuke plants have 2 units, which are very, very often identical to each other. . . Low staffing could cause one to go down and still keep one up and running. . . Plus parts would be available to cannabalize from the downed unit. . .
There will be NO rioting or looting of nuke plants. Post 9/11 security will ensure this. EVEN with a limited number of staffing, these plants WILL be safe. Enough said.
There’s an interesting news on the Canada lookout thread about Sasketchewan Power.
SCW AZ – at 22:38 You’ve captured the essence of rate freezes and where the funds ara actually applied. A rate increase to cover disaster planning and business continuity is reasonable (adding bench resources), if not at the public commission level then at least at the federal level since the consequences are nationwide. The final document presented by Canada and the US on the 2004 blackout captured the lack governance between the state entities and federal interests. As a southerner, I like states rights and independence, but since the grid is national in scope by design and a national security issue it should be managed and governed at the national level. For once Lincoln was right:)
SCW AZ – at 22:55
Yes, most nuke plants have two units. The one I worked at had two units. One was Westinghouse, the other was GE…very few interchangable parts
Strider – at 11:34
“group buy on solar panels?”
If you have read the previous threads on alternative power sources, you will know that Eccles has repeatedly demonstrated how limited the power that can be captured and stored using solar panels is unless you are planning on making a huge investment.
Okidokie – at 14:21
“My say is, help out if you can. Call in downed trees ahead of time or trees that are ready to fall. Prepare ahead of time.”
In my area the power company is not proactive about trees that threaten the power lines. I have called about several but they will not come out to trim limbs. They prefer to only fix problems that have already happened. Maybe a symptom of downsizing the crews?
Okiedokie:
I don’t understand how power plant operators can run the plants if they have bodily fluids oozing out of every orifice in their body. Could you please expound on your logic.
Look, the grid may not go down according to definition, but it would extremely unwise to not plan for electrical outages at your locality. I live in Colorado and just the weather alone tends to let 10K people enjoy zero electricity for sometimes weeks at a time. It happens. And you don’t need to run your house, just get a single 15W (1Ah) panel and charge some batteries with it.
Does anyone honestly believe a tree knocked over and bringing down a line is going to be repaired in a time frame that approaches normal? I’m assumin worse case. How could anyone not assume worst case?
oddthomas – at 09:05 I agree, Is there one single person on this thread that is going to tell me, hey; its ok Kim-you don’t need to worry about the grid going down. You and your kids and grandkids will be fine power wise during a pandemic!
I live in Iowa, we get tornadoes, ice and snow storms and have been without power for weeks when everyone is healthy and other states can send help. In a pandemic I so don’t think so.
So you brainiacs quit in-fighting and get the job done. Please and thank you! : )
Bird Guano – at 16:40
Especially for those of us who have been doing Crisis Management and Business Continuity planning for YEARS.
That dog don’t hunt.
Jumping Jack Flash – at 18:24
I sure hope you are not involved in any utility pandemic planning.
Bird Guano and Jumpin Jack Flash - You too should form a consulting business together. LOL
Jumping Jack Flash – at 07:41 Okiedokie:
I don’t understand how power plant operators can run the plants if they have bodily fluids oozing out of every orifice in their body. Could you please expound on your logic.
woo woo hystrical scenario, I dont know Jack, why dont you ask Bird Guano, she/he/it is a crisis expert…LOL
okidokie. I, like most people, like to be right about what I debate. I hope like h*ll I’m wrong and you’re right on this.
More comforting grid news. Watts Bar Nuclear Power plant causes schools to close today in Meigs county, TN. The news is reporting a simple water leak/damaged line, but no water actually leaked. What is amazing here is that the location is the hub in the grid from TVA to the north in OH/PA and gateway hub to the south. Its on the wires, just google the news.
It bears repeating, if these are the problems that we have in the best of times how will they manage theough even a slight pandemic? The current operating procedures are already in a sort of “disaster recovery mode”.
“CEO makes $27 million a year with top 5 exec’s pulling down a total of $50 million a year”
SCW AZ, I see six people that could get sick and the grid would keep running without them. Let them go, without their “parachutes”, and hire and train actual workers for all the areas that are too thin (and rely on mutual outside aid) now. Probably can make the grid a lot more robust with $77 million, carefully allocated. Try brainwashing the public into conserving energy, too…
Former HeadChopper – at 10:06
Its called the greater good. During times of normalcy, these things need to be contained and appropriate actions taken. With all technology, there are associated risks and often far greater rewards, otherwise we wouldnt pursue them. If this were a pandemic scenario, then I am sure the plant would continue to operate and not be shut down, especially if other plants are at or over capacity.
It would be considered a time of war. And as you know, different measuring sticks are used.
Bird and Jumping Jack, I apologize for my cute remarks. We are all trying to help out. Asking the tough questions is better done now than later when its too late.
KimT – at 09:24 oddthomas – at 09:05
I’m on the same page as these two. Plan for power failure. When you don’t have power for days or weeks, or even months, it won’t matter if it is a failure of the distribution system or the plants. Dark is dark, regardless of the cause.
Okidokie – at 09:57 “. . .Secondly, even on a cold start, there is ample onsite back up generation and fuel for multiple restarts. Its a non-issue. . . .”
Respectfully, I don’t agree. At MOST plants, in order to start a nuke plant, offsite power is required to get the process going (by supplying inhouse loads) because there is not enough process steam to run the plant’s main generator. This main generator will eventually power all inhouse loads after sequencing onto the grid. Sequencing of the grid generally occurs at anywhere between 15 - 25 % power (depending on the plant), where inhouse loads are then transferred from their offsite power source to the onsite power source, aka the plant’s main turbine-generator.
Note, however, upon loss of the entire US Grid, there are “black start” plants*** to initially startup the grid, generally CTs (Combustion Turbines aka natural gas fueled “jet engines”) or hydro-electric. Once a “black start” plant has started up the grid, this will provide enough power to startup other plants, including N-Plants.
I prefer real-life lessons, learned from other’s trials and mistakes, vs a spreadsheet scenario.
I’m planning for extended power outages.
So are my customers.
Somehow my logic and real-life experience seems reasonable to CEO’s of multi-billion $$ companies.
Imagine that.
I too am planning for extended outages. Bad news you can’t SIP in Phoenix, June - Sept with the grid down. . . Quite literally, you’re toast.
For nukes, certain key employees wll be required, but many are cross-trained, and should be able to operate with 25% attendance. . . ABSOLUTE minimum would be 15%, but they would have to be ALL the right people and not for an extended period of time. This is good news.
dont know about american industry, but here when they talk about shortages of el, the government say they will close down the supply to industry (this in ordinary times) and pay them for it. In a pandemic there could be a part of the solution. Then the ussage itself will not cause breakdown.. So if the grid is well designed there would still be working for a period. And then you have rolling rationing. that is also a very powerfull tool. The grid is the key I belive.. and putting keyworkers on Amatadine or Tamiflu prophylacks will also help alot.
Now where to get all that tamiflu.. hmmm maybe from the patients..
SCW AZ
What my MIL recounted ( she moved to Phoenix around 1920,as a young child)was that they all slept outdors,on the porches,wrapped up in wet sheets, went swimming in the canals, and as many as could went North or to SD. In the summer Phoenix was very much a bachelor type place.
Of course in those days ( and mine as a child in the 60s), it cooled off to the 80s at night. Doesn`t happen anymore, way too much asphalt and concrete there now.
Without the grid up it will be a miserable place. Liveable,if one uses their heads, has plenty to drink, shade from the sun, but I wouldn`t like to do it.
I can see a mass exodus from the Valley if it hits in the summer, and the grid goes down.
Okidokie – at 10:27 I was referring to the current operational readiness of the grid infrastructure, which looks dismal to me from a simple risk assessment. If the grid is tired now simply running the race with men how will it ever expect to run with horses in times of even slight diversity of a mild pandemic, not to mention a severe one.
Enough solar equipment to run a medium size house,including inverter, batteries, etc. averages at least $25,000, so yeah, it’s expensive.
But think carefully about what you really need. Would you like to have light for a few hours after dark? A TV if there is some kind of broadcast going on? Your laptop?
Our needs now include straightening irons, clothes dryers,and HGTV. With a cabin style solar setup, you can spend $5000 or less and get some minimal comforts. It’s not about being where it’s hot and sunny, either. Solar panels like the cool, so a cold sunny day is great for solar. The panels can’t be shaded, though.
You’d have to plan carefully. You would need to decide ahead of time if you wanted DC or Ac. Any air-conditioning would have to be planned as a tiny room-within-a-room, well insulated using something like lining walls with foil/foam panels. You would have just a small place where you could escape from the heat. The unit itself would have to be carefully chosen. Whole house AC-forget it, unless your solar setup is huge. If you live where it’s dry, you can get a swamp-cooler type portable unit that works decently.
All of your cooking and heating would have to be planned as wood/propane or some other backup-No electric cooking or heat.
If you want to do a group buy, you need to do it between now and the end of the year. I think the 2006–2007 energy rebate allows you $3000 each year. Meaning you could buy $3000 the end of December and $3000 the beginning of January and get a tax break for it. Any solar dealer will help with the details of how to do this.
It’s a better idea than the one where the National Guard comes and holds guns on the utility workers while the wife and kids are out there getting killed by the looters. Those Pollyanna scenarios ain’t happening. Make other plans. If you’re not exposed to outages in your area, turn off the breaker box and THINK…how would I..
Lavendergrl – at 03:24
I spent a couple of thousand dollars so that I can recharge my Swiss Gear lanterns, watch a DVD on the laptop now and then, and power a 5″ black and white TV. It is a definite adjustment reaction when one finally realizes how expensive it is to produce your own power, however, it beats not having any at all.
Moderators, can we get a grid 2, this thread is very long.
So, the folks who live near a hydro plant will be better off? Or will the produced power be sent off somewhere else?
I`m thinking of places like Vegas. Doesn`t a lot of their power come from Hoover Dam?
And, there is a smallish hydro plant about 20 miles from where I live. I don`t know where that power goes. But, am I correst that it could be used to black start some of the other gen stations in the area, even perhaps Palo Verde ,if necessary ?
Review of Grid Risks
The power grids in most developed countries involve a high degree of complex interdependency between generation supply/facilities/staff, control facilities/staff, and transmission facilities/staff, as well as interdependency with external infrastructure/staff/supply to sustain the aforesaid. A full Reliability, Maintainability, and Availability (RMA) analysis would be required to reasonably quantify the probabilities and impacts, but the following is the first step of identifying key risks;
Power Generation
Power Distribution
This is only a start; I’m going to move this preliminary information to a wiki page, and encourage those with experience in these matters to improve/correct/expand on it.
Update the above info at http://www.fluwikie.com/pmwiki.php?n=Consequences.AnticipatedProblems#energy
Will – at 07:23 Outstanding start! We have other here that I know could contribute on the information system side, and human resources, and that would be very helpful too on the wiki. Lets go Fluwikians, for if the grid goes, so does everything else.
SCADA controls and sensors must have both power and telecommunications over the entire control area.
What if the grid is taken down just to shut up the media and reduce panic?
I think they can tell the media to hush without pulling the plug. “Homeland security” ect.
(Sheeple will panic without their tv being available….) I imagine they’d rather keep most people home glued to the sets, while the grid lasts…
crfullmoon – at 16:18 I think they can tell the media to hush without pulling the plug. “Homeland security” ect. (Sheeple will panic without their tv being available……they’d rather keep most people home glued to the sets, while the grid lasts..
I’d like to suggest while they’re watching TV that they’re boiling water on the stove. If there’s any doubt. Boil it!
And when their stove stops? I hope info gets out now in the water or electric or gas bills; how to make water safe to drink …
Bird Guano – at 16:47 “SCADA controls and sensors must have both power and telecommunications over the entire control area. “
This most salient point, in my view, vies with power as the root cause of the biggest infrastructure failures. Wide area controls (sensors and device controllers) need to communicate with each other, via telephone lines, internet, private network, hard copper wires between the 2 points) to keep a grid, local store lights, financial networks, etc online. For instance, I needed to make a connection at a Home Depot store and wanted to turn off a particular big motor but there is no local switch - all the controls for their building services are in Atlanta and local circuits through the internet. This is getting very common in chain stores. Many of the remote sensors and power handling for the grid equipment need to communicate with the load managemnet centers, and I imagine many of these are being handled over the internet now too, it saves so much money than paying for 1000′s of dedicated monthly phone lines or running miles of copper wires.
There are concerns because there was a day when there was a mix of remote communication methods. Like a monoculture farm fields attacked by a single plant disease, the concentration of these applications all onto internet communication means if the internet goes down, we lose control over grid equipment, business lights/heat/cooling, security access doors, and on and on. The usual method of accomodating a remote communication failure is that people get into cars and drive to manually control the remote devices, but if large numbers of people are sick (and local towns block roads, etc.) that becomes a bigger problem. Another growing problem is that manual controls add quite bit of costs to equipment, and mora and more equipment is made with no switches or knobs on them, the established method is the ONLY to run them without extensive configuration changes.
As was true for Y2K but MUCH worse now, if we lose the internet, we will probably lose everything. Its interesting to note that we may have situations that there IS power to the building, but it can’t be used because the central office is closed or communication is down. So even if your local city power system is working, many businesses or system may not operate because of the conditions at the particular “Central Control”.
A note: Many of my thoughts about the criticality of the power grid and why it should be moved to the country’s defense-level priorities, along with the jet fughters and nuclear missiles, is from the USA’s own military use of power grid destruction in other countries, like Kosovo and Iraq. This was initially triggered by a paper written entitled “Switching Societies Off” (fasinating title, yes?), accomplished by targeting the societies’ power grid, which then denies all other services like water, sewage, heat, cooling. I hadn’t known the USA makes a carbon-graphite bomb that spews carbon particles specifically to short out transformers and distribution lines, a somewhat more manageable and acceptable weapon than a EMP nuke. Some of the discussion concerning disease and death rates and mental effects are covered in this paper to help get a reasonable idea of what power grid failure would mean here. I do find it curious (possibly fatally arrogant) that while our military strategists obviously have carefully analyzed the effects of power grid destruction on others, and commonly take advantage of it, that we have such a relaxed view of the maintenance, defensibility, and adequacy of our own grid. I get a picture of a bunch of terrorists simply turning on all their electric stoves, space heaters, and floodlights simultaneously at a peak usage time to “switch America off”. http://tinyurl.com/yhtlu6
:-/
Fiddlerdave – at 14:37
After a long warm beautiful weekend, I WAS just skipping around whistling the tune for the Andy Griffin show. You just grabbed the back of my collar and yanked me back to reality.
Sorry, JWB…I do indeed wonder at times if getting a frontal lobotomy would be appropriate therapy to improve my happiness, at least until TSHTF. As opposed to something like winning the lottery, which might only accomplish giving me MORE time to ponder these kind of thoughts. In comfort, tho. hmmmm
SCADA also controls things beyond heating and cooling.
Things like grid frequency, switching huge transformers on and off line.
Detection of shorts and flaws in the distribution system.
Load demand anticipation.
ALL require power and an internet connection.
ALL are required to keep a power grid functioning.
It is so sad, how many people don’t realize what a miracle it is, to turn a light on.
Two years ago, almost to the day, over 80,000 South Dakotans lose power because an ice storm damages somewhere in the neighborhood of 11,000 electric poles. Icing on the lines in some areas was larger than softballs.
Line crews converge from 4 or 5 surrounding states to help get the power back on while local communities set up emergency shelters for those whose power was cut in the life threatening cold. Travel was so dangerous due to conintued icy conditions and downed power lines that staying home was the best option. Those who were in danger due to the cold were told to request travel assistance from 911.
Sunshine that came over a week later finally allowed the ice on the lines to melt, but for some homes, farms and whole communities it was more than 2 weeks before power was restored.
No pandemic. Two weeks without power in the middle of winter when the temperature was in the arctic range.
Normal things like this will continue to occur during a pandemic.
Into the Woods – at 19:42
Are you the same ‘Into the Woods’ at CE? I don’t believe I’ve seen you post here before.
;-)
Sorry, one and the same. :^)
I post here only occasionally (as is evidenced by my abysmal formatting on occasion), but stop by to browse more often.
I am making an effort to get out and about a bit more.
ITW
I’ve always enjoyed your post there.
I hear ya on getting out and about more.
Is it me or are we (panflu community) seem to be dividing rather than converging?
where did the sidescroll come from?
name disappeared. used a slash.
JWB at 22:00 They seem to be dividing and it appears that it is getting worse.
It is very sad to see. I had hoped that they would have all come together as they are all raising the alarm about the same thing. But like the different countries of the world, each has their own opinion and the net result is no compromise and the sites are drifting further and further apart.
Into the Woods – at 19:42, I saw photos of that eastern SD icestorm, when a person was finally able to get back on flickr and upload; power poles just snapped off at the ground like toothpicks.
Without mutual aid, or if supply chain broke sure would be a long awful catastrophe.
Local authorities keep saying, it’s not their dept, and the electrical providers “have been working on plans, just like us” (shudder -that’s what I’m afraid of).
Fiddlerdave, I guess I’d rather have a frontal lobotomy than a bottle in front of me, but, neither sounds like it will help at this end of history.
“Switching Societies Off” ugh.
Euripides, some 2400 years ago:
“Those whom the gods wish to destroy They first make mad”
“Talk sense to a fool and he calls you foolish”
another thing to consider- no grid power means no water in the Southwest.
LMWatBullRun — 01 December 2006, 18:31 “another thing to consider- no grid power means no water in the Southwest.”
Amen brother! I’ve thought about this problem many times. A long term disruption (BF, terror attack, etc.,.) would be a disaster for the southwest. There is no way the environment can support the huge population without massive technological “input”. I have no clue what I will do after my 1250 gallon tank, and the neighbor’s swimming pool goes dry….
JWB at 19:09 -
“It is so sad, how many people don’t realize what a miracle it is, to turn a light on.”
So very true and I’m no longer one of them, thanks to the Grid Guys of the FluWiki. I now know more than I ever wanted to about “the grid” and it worries me to no end.
A few years ago I was visiting a friend in Albuquerque. At a nearby shop (bookstore, IIRC) a man recounted how he had just set up his mother’s house with a water catchment system. He said that even in AZ there’s enough rain to provide a good amount of water if used very carefully. Just need some clean roof (the more the better) and some tanks. In Hawaii on the Big Island a lot of people use catchment in doughboy pools or cement tanks. Of course, it rains at least 80 inches or more a year, on the wet side.
I’ve seen water cisterns for catchment water in other arid places.
South east florida has “no development allowed” everglades on one side and ocean on the other. A hundred (more or less) mile strip of nothing but wall to wall people. No power, no fuel pumping, no food, millions of hungry people. Check out the records for the aftermath of hurricane Andrew.
For a preview of what may come, turn on CNN and watch the report of the blackout in the Northwest U.S.
People trying to stay warm with temperatures below freezing, police stopping fights at the gas stations that still have gas and able to pump it, and houses catching on fire from people’s sad attempts at heating their homes.