I start this thread to discuss how we can work to save our communities. I don’t have alot of content expertise in this area, so it’s up to you’all to contribute what you know.
Here are the main areas we need to work on, IMO:
There may be other areas I haven’t though of. Feel free to add more. Note, I did not include medical care because I think keeping hosptitals open is most cities will be impossible. This will lead to many personal tragedies, but would not be the end of civilisation.
Please consider what could go wrong with each of the community resources listed in a severe pandemic, and how this can be countered. Indicate whether personal, municipal, state or federal involvement would be necessary to keep them going.
Thanks in advance for your help.
Could I suggest that we should all go and ‘hug a farmer today’. Before, this is over, your local farmers may be the difference.
Tom DVM – at 22:47,
You are right about that!
Do you, or anyone else, know how many people typcially work face to face in modern farming? I’m embarassed to say, I don’t know. My guess is that with all the modern machines, it should be possible to continue to farm without much risk of farmers infecting each other. Is this a valid assumption?
In farming it’s a valid assumption.
In HARVESTING it’s not a valid assumption because of the conditions in which most migrant farmworkers live/work.
Monotreme. Farmers are very community minded on many fronts so although about 2% of the countries population is on the farm (I think), they will not isolate themselves…
…secondly, we have the problem with those damn pigs…if they become a vector as in 1918 where they actually caught it from us for the first time on record…they might also become a secondary source of infections for farmers…and with an arrow right into the center of farming communities, it might be worse rather than better and the small number of farmers on the farm with expertise might be a major problem for long-term food supplies to cities.
There is one thing about farmers though, they have a lot of guts and will not stop until they drop literally…so if anyone can deliver the food, the farmers will.
BirdGuano – at 22:58,
Good point. You just brought up a huge issue which I had not though about. Migrant, possibly illegal, farmworkers living together in substandard housing. They will die like flies in a severe pandemic if we don’t provide them with PPE and decent housing.
I know some crops are more labor intensive than others. For example, I thought the harvesting of corn was pretty much done with machines, not farmhands. Is this correct? Which crops require lots of labor and which ones don’t?
Tom DVM,
I’m thinking livestock is a non-starter. Won’t be too many people going to the grocery store for pork chops during a severe pandemic. I suggest at the first sign that a severe pandemic has started, we turn pigs into sausage and cattle into jerky.
Farmers should be compensated for their loss, of course.
* Water Utilities
‘’‘Water utilities start in most areas with federal water projects and trickle down to the consumer through many steps. Areas with deep wells rely on the grid to pump and treat gravity fed water systems. Water utilities rely on the petrochemical industry for chemicals to treat potable water, which in turn rely on electric power, raw product (mostly imported), and manpower to run the processes.
Water is also dependant upon power to move it, clean it and distribute it to the end user.’‘’
* The Grid
‘’‘Relies on a complex web of SCADA devices, controlled by networked computers and humans. Generation relies on a supply of Just-in-time replacement parts, and skilled labor to keep it running. Generation also relies on some form of hydrocarbon to combust, coal, natural gas, LPG Local distribution relies on manpower, failure parts replacement and communications.’‘’
* Food
‘’‘Heavily reliant on petrochemicals for planting, harvesting, fertilization and pest control. Is a Just-in-time process, whereby the product must be delivered before it perishes. LARGE migrant labor pool to make it all happen.’‘’
* Transportation
Fuel, Fuel, Fuel and security.
* Security
‘’‘Overwhelming calls for service when manpower is out sick/dead Large sections of the population desperate, causing widespread civil unrest without the congruant manpower to deal with it. Regional warlord economy.’‘’
well the formatting didn’t work, but you get the drift.
I think we should agree heads up that we shouldn’t strive to maintain the normal. Some sacrifice is warranted. People can’t expect every water utility to run at full or even with emergency staff. It will have to be a small all volunteer core group who are given incentives if required to stay and perform their duty. The public should be told to conserve-no dog bath, car wash or lawn watering, and all househoulds only wash one full load a day. Is this a can do? Is this a viable suggestion?
Same for food. People can’t expect a full three meals a day. If you prepped them fine—otherwise basic substenance at low end calorie scale.
Regarding the grid. I know something about it. I have ultimate on shift responsibility for the reliability of the bulk power system in 12 states. With dismay, I report that utility PTB have done NOTHING to prepare.
sezI: utilities won’t prepare to quarantine power plants and control centers for the same reason government leaders won’t. ie; they are afraid of looking stupid if panflu never hits.
Like I’ve said before, folks, I’ve shifted my thinking from stocking enough soup for a year to enough fishing line and garden seeds for a lifetime.
Guys the likes of Monotreme and Osterholm are strong leaders, and I admire their willingness to stand on a stump, but their voices carry just so…
Monotreme,
Thank you for shifting the focus towards community preps.
I’m going to again don the hat of the ‘devil’s advocate’, and say that if your worst case scenario is H5N1 going pandemic with its current CFR of 50+%, then the most important community preps would be mortuary services and public security.
There may also be a scenario where, apart maybe from water, there may not be a severe scarcity of food or regular household items - people will just take from those who have died or fled. This happened during the Black Death and during epidemics in ancient Athens. All sorts of valuables were there for the taking.
OK, Most labor intensive crops:
Vegetables Melons Stone fruit Apples Grapes Strawberries Tree Nuts Rice Quote from Fresno State (CA) ag department: “At the extreme, the most seasonal, labor-intensive crop in the state is raisin grapes. For only six weeks each year, over 50,000 people are employed in the Fresno area to harvest raisin grapes alone.
Least Labor Intensive. The “combine” harvests: Wheat Soybeans Millet Barley Feed corn
Source: California Farm Bureau
Wow, I guess I’m the wild-eyed optimist on this one. Probably because I know the least ;-)
Sacrifices will be the norm, as Leo7 says. Another reason for family prepping.
Seems like power is considered one of the keystone issues. So, let’s focus on this first. JJF, who is the boss of the utility PTB? What kind of pressure do they respond to? ie, are they elected? If not, who are the elected officials at the top of the food chain whom we should address our complaints to?
I was one of the emergency panel members during the year leading up to Y2k, in a community of 25000 at that time. Although we did prepare a book for the fire department and town, and even a few things were done, most were not done. Even now nothing is being done at the local schools, town, fire department as far as I know in getting any prep in place or studying any of the bird flu situation. A good chunk of the community are elderly and retired, and now the population is around 35,000 growing and still nothing. There was one small meeting about bird flu, but nothing was done at that time, so the blindness goes on,,,,,and when a pandemic occurs, this place in the desert will be filled I suspect with the dead and dieing,,,,and sickness all over. And no help from Las Vegas,,,etc
In order the most important things in my opinion:
Electricity Water
If we lose these two early on with a high CFR and no planning on the part of utilities, then I’m with JJF and I need to start stocking more gill nets and arrowheads.
BirdGuano – at 23:24
Well, time to stock up on raisins.
Looks like we’ll be eating “combine” food.
anon 22
I have speculated that my neighbors might be dead before long and have even eyed up their propane tanks (remember the thread about how low have you stooped)
Please provide link about “valuables for the taking”
Power:
OK, for Californis as an example:
The over-seer: California Public Utilities Commission
The distributor: California Independent System Operator
Utilities:
Los Angeles Dept. of Water and Power
Pacific Gas and Electric Company
about a dozen municipal utilities (where your voice may even be heard)
Sierra-Pacific Power
The Nationwide Interconnects:
The main interconnections of the U.S. electric power grid and the ten North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) regions. Note: The Alaska Systems Coordinating Council (ASCC) is an affiliate NERC member. (Source: North American Electric Reliability Council)
ECAR - East Central Area Reliability Coordination Agreement
ERCOT - Electric Reliability Council of Texas
FRCC - Florida Reliability Coordinating Council
MAAC - Mid-Atlantic Area Council
MAIN - Mid-America Interconnected Network
MAPP - Mid-Continent Area Power Pool
NPCC - Northeast Power Coordinating Council
SERC - Southeastern Electric Reliability Council
SPP - Southwest Power Pool
WSCC - Western Systems Coordinating Council
The grid systems in Hawaii and Alaska are much different than on the U.S. mainland.
Alaska has an interconnected grid system, but it connects only Anchorage, Fairbanks, and the Kenai Peninsula.
Much of the rest of the state depends on small diesel generators, although there are a few minigrids in the state as well.
Hawaii also depends on minigrids to serve each island’s inhabitants.
BirdGuano – at 23:43,
Who is the elected official who can make the NERC prepare? Do we have to go to the top, the Prez, or is there someone lower we can lobby? Does the Secretary of the DOE have authority over the NERC?
Monotreme – at 23:39
Well, time to stock up on raisins.
Looks like we’ll be eating “combine” food.
Unfortunately in my area, there IS no combine food.
It’s all seasonal and fresh. IF it gets planted, and IF there is power to irrigrate the crops.
California relies on irrigation, not rainfall.
So without power, and thus irrigation, the production drops like a stone.
“Please provide link about “valuables for the taking””
I am assuming this is a joke, right? :-)
My understanding came from reading literature the Middle Ages and I think it was Thucydides on ancient Athens.
Monotreme – at 23:48 Who is the elected official who can make the NERC prepare? Do we have to go to the top, the Prez, or is there someone lower we can lobby? Does the Secretary of the DOE have authority over the NERC?
I’m researching that as you type. ;-)
Appears to be the Secretary of Energy.
NERC Pandemic Business Continuity Plan in .PDF
I did actually find something from Wikipedia on Thucydides which is somewhat instructive, although not what JJF was specifically asking about:
The History of the Peloponnesian War
“Though many lay unburied, birds and beasts would not touch them, or died after tasting them. … The bodies of dying men lay one upon another, and half-dead creatures reeled about the streets and gathered round all the fountains in their longing for water. The sacred places also in which they had quartered themselves were full of corpses of persons that had died there, just as they were; for as the disaster passed all bounds, men, not knowing what was to become of them, became utterly careless of everything, whether sacred or profane. All the burial rites before in use were entirely upset, and they buried the bodies as best they could. Many from want of the proper appliances, through so many of their friends having died already, had recourse to the most shameless sepultures: sometimes getting the start of those who had raised a pile, they threw their own dead body upon the stranger’s pyre and ignited it; sometimes they tossed the corpse which they were carrying on the top of another that was burning, and so went off.”
Above brief provides the names of those sitting on the NERC pandemic planning committee, along with their affiliation.
A good place to start writing letters.
Monotreme:
Are the energy agencies something you buy stock in? Shareholders get to talk in these meetings…There was an article once about a group that bought one share of stock in order to attend the shareholder’s meeting to discuss an issue. Is that a realistic intervention? Sorry, I don’t own any, but maybe someone on the wicki does.
Now annon 22, “You have to stop thinking of everything as all or none.” There are going to be many shades of grey in this pandemic…we must not assume that morutary services and public security are going to be most important…
…by the way, I completely agree…
…my biggest fear is hunger…hunger does funny things to people but your concerns would be the next tier on my list too. /:0)
NERC reports to FERC (federal energy regulatory commission)
NERC FERC DOE whoever… same thing … TPTB all have the same concern that even little old me has. They are reluctant to speak up for fear of looking stupid if this never hits.
What’s needed is leaders (be it utility, government, medical) with balls the likes of monotreme
Monotreme. I think these subjects are too complicated for one thread…you are probably going to have to pick one…say electricity and then bring up other threads for other infrastructure problems.
Does anyone have Helen Branswells contact information…it is probably time to get her directly involved…I don’t think this would be a conflict of interest for her…rather it is a compliment.
BirdGuano – at 23:49,
Have you considered moving to the Midwest? ;-)
BirdGuano – at 23:51
Appears to be the Secretary of Energy.
Thanks! You may have found our first target for a letter writing campaign. I’ll be reading the NERC plan tonight.
JJF. Thanks. Tom DVM, take note, JJF has correctly identified my gender.
I think you’all are right. Let’s focus on Energy for now. We can get to the other areas later.
Monotreme – at 00:03
BirdGuano – at 23:49,
Have you considered moving to the Midwest? ;-)
Thanks, but no thanks. ;-)
I live on the central California coast and have non-grid backup, so I’m not particularly worried.
My small volunteer fire department is preparing as best we can to ride it out. The members of which are mostly my neighbors anyway.
We’ve already been instructed by a county rep. who took a FEMA course to be self-sufficient for 12 weeks and to expect no electrical power after the second week.
My rose colored glasses broke a while ago unfortunately. LOL
I see Electricity continuity as the NUMBER ONE PRIORITY.
This is getting a little ‘US specific’ - pls keep suggestions broad enough to include other countries.
Well that was quick read. They identified the threat, but did not identify any solutions. Do we have to everything ourselves? Well, yes, I think we do. So, we should we tell these guys to do to prepare for the worst case scenario.
My ideas:
More…?
/:0)
gharris – at 00:11
This is getting a little ‘US specific’ - pls keep suggestions broad enough to include other countries.
When it comes to applying pressure to elected officials, I don’t know how to avoid becoming specific about the individuals we need to lobby.
Hopefully some of our posts will not be country specific, for example mine at 00:12.
Even if the utility company made a committment to quarantine power plants and control centers (no small task - they would have to provide food and water to workers AND their families, AND stockpile a *MOUNTAIN* of coal/fuel) they would still depend on other services out of their control to operate (spare parts for power plants, communications, etc etc)
Bottom line, from an insider point of view, get some fishing line and garden seeds if you want to see “the other side”
JJFlash…not what I wanted to hear from an expert but probably what I needed to hear…Thanks…I think!!
JJF – at 00:21
Bottom line, from an insider point of view, get some fishing line and garden seeds if you want to see “the other side”
Done. But I’m a lousy fisherman.
So, what kind of spare parts are needed? How often do things go wrong?
I’m not thinking filet mignon for the plant workers, more like MRE’s. We feed 1.4 million US military every day. Couldn’t we just order some extra MRE’s? I don’t know about how practical it would be store a bunch of coal, but what about our Nuke plants? I’m figuring places like DisneyWorld are not going to have alot of customers during a pandemic, so we won’t need as much electricity. If we shut everything down but essential services and residential, how much electricity would we need? Could the Nukes and Hydros handle it?
People can survive without electricity, but not without food and water.
Folks, I don’t want to sound defeatist, just realistic. Don’t count on the power grid. I’m not and I run it.
enza – at 00:29
People can survive without electricity, but not without food and water.
True, but as has been pointed out above, we need electricity to keep water treatment plants open and to process food. I guess, in a pinch, we shut down power to residential area to keep the water flowing.
Oh Shit…make that attack rate one…home team zero.
Some fun facts about energy:
JJF, what about the Nuke’s? How many people do you need to operate them? How hard would it be to make them self-sufficient? Please humor me.
Total number of power plant Operators, Distributors, and Dispatchers: 47,000.
Source: U.S. Department of Labor
We need 5,640,0000 MREs for the workers and another 22.5 million MREs for their families for 2 months.
I have seen people riot over power loss, but not the water. Power plus booze goes a long way. The standard bearer has to be power. Nuclear power probably requires less people, they should be fine unless some rumor starts about them—and they’re shut down.
Monotreme:
I would give priority to service in this order:
comunication water plants sewage plants media (tv radio) hospitals police/fire natural gas pumping facilities food manufacturing / distribution
forget nuke plants - they cannot and will not operate absent a stable grid. period. and for good reason, bird flu or not.
that leaves hydro - hydro could readily support the above list. if it rains hydro is available. if it doesn’t rain hydro is not available.
JJF – at 00:45
Thanks for the info about nuke plants and Hydro.
Good news that Hydro can support essential services! If it rains.
Anything we can do proactively to improve the stability of the Grid?
I’m buying me a really good sleeping bag.
Canada is looking better and better…all the time…Eh!!
I have seen people, countries, live with unpredictable electricity, few hours per day, some days a couple hours. Humans can and will adapt to rationed electricity if told of the need to do so; historically it’s our newest ‘luxury’. Why, we still go camping without it for fun!!
Monotreme:
This all boils down to people (including me) afraid of speaking up and perhaps lookin stupid, from utility, to government, to whatever.
Like I said, we need people with balls like you.
Monotreme – at 00:44 Total number of power plant Operators, Distributors, and Dispatchers: 47,000. Source: U.S. Department of Labor We need 5,640,0000 MREs for the workers and another 22.5 million MREs for their families for 2 months.
I would consider this a choke point: 47k(.50 CFR)= 23.5k workers for the electric grid consortium Take 40% of the 23.5k for the sick and those out to care for family and that leaves 9400 of “healthy” trained utlity workers. Where are agencies going to find the time and manpower to train 37,600 replacement or even temporary employees to cover the losses that are anticipated with a pandemic? I can assume that 90% of the population haven’t the done one “iota” of preparing for a natural disaster, let alone a pandemic with a CFR as currently being recorded. The simple fact is, that when a pandemic hits, electricity, as stated by enza – at 00:53, MUST be considered a luxury item. As a society, we have become far too needy and expect way too much from conveniences such as a “gas and go” mart on every corner and every type of food just a drive thru away. If the PTB who sit on the boards of the electric commissions don’t have the knowledge and the motivation to ensure that the electricity stays up, how in the h*ll do you expect a letter writing campaign to light a fire under their feet and get THIER house in order? If the people who run the show don’t see how fragile and vulnerable the system is, I can guarantee you that letters asking for 28,000,000 MRE’s to supply a workforce that currently buys their own food is NOT going to produce a very likely outcome. It’s time to be realistic about what we’re faced with. If the power goes down, and unless you live in a community that is supplied exclusively by diesel generators, or diesel backup, you’re going to be on your own (without electricity) until some kind of infrastructure is re-established. It’s a wonderful thing to have a collective intelligence in an attempt to foresee all obstacles, but at some point, there is point of diminishing return where more bodies thrown in front of the bus aint gonna stop it!
JJF:
Monotreme is a leader but he is an anonymous leader. He’s like me, and you, we all got to go to work and not feel paranoid. One older nurse said the young nurses should stand up about it because they will fire the older ones or put them back on night shift. We all know if we agitate the workplace machine they will label us as a trouble maker, therefore ridicule us, give poorer evaluations than deserved, and lack of promotion.
JJF-Aren’t the power grids different from region to region? They can’t all be the same. The southern company deals with power emergencies all the time and I might add they do a great job.
Also enza is right electricity should be rationed, but that is particularly hard in a mega city if you have to walk up fifteen flights of stairs.
Lugon, in particular, as well as others have done some work on this issue and others in the community preparation section of the Wiki part of Flu Wiki. In the energy part, at the bottom is a link to pandemic planning by some electrical companies on the page that Lugon created if I am not mistaken. I can only get to the company page, but I can’t access the pandemic plans. Lugon, can you help us once again?
About speaking up. I called one of our local city utilities. Call as a concerned citizen and that can sometimes allow a person on the inside to bring the pandemic issue up at meetings without looking stupid because now they have to get back to the concerned citizen. “I’ve had a call from Jane citizen and said I would get back to her. She wants to know specifics….” I am way more confident as I know our city utility is clued in and preparing.
I forgot to add that when I spoke to the contact at the utility, I provided links to the government site and Flu Wiki. He also passed the links on to others.
Here, for whatever it’s worth, is my .02c: prioity list of five community needs in a worst case scenario. It’s late and I know I’m forgetting something and I know you will let me know ;o)
food and water— as Tom mentioned people get really ugly when they are hungry or are watching their kids go hungry. fever meds for children who may get fever seizures.
communication— eg telephone triage, info on water disinfection, food storage, proper waste disposal, the current state of things, caring for sick family and neighbours, incubation time etc etc etc. also, cough and sneeze hygiene, hand hygiene.
waste disposal— esp. warm climates w/pests
rationed electricity and alternative energy—esp. for PSAs on tv/radio
PPE—for those that cannot SIP
And this does not begin to address vulnerable or special needs populations.
Gosh, I hope this virus dies.
For western civilization, electricity is no longer a luxury.
It is a necessity for life. ALL of western civilization and the just-in-time economy depends on the free flow of electricity.
While some 3rd world parts of the globe will chug along without noticing, the impact on first world will be catastrophic.
You can look no farther than Maslow Hierary of Needs to set your priorities.
A pandemic will knock those down to their most primal physical level.
To Paraphrase:
Norwood (1999)… individuals at the lowest level seek coping information in order to meet their basic needs. Information that is not directly connected to helping a person meet his or her needs in a very short time span is simply left unattended. Individuals at the safety level need helping information. They seek to be assisted in seeing how they can be safe and secure.
And now I know it’s late because I’m thinking that I’m typing letters in words that are not appearing on screen.
Will address this further in the morning when my eyes are not blurry.
But I still defend my position that electricity is above water and food on the priority scale.
Without electricity you won’t have potable water. Without electricity you won’t have food production, processing or distribution Without electricity you won’t have telecommunications or commerce
Most electricity in the US comes from coal and then natural gas. The coal is often strip mined and sent on trains or sometimes slurry pipelines. The strip mining is done with huge diggers and trucks, with little social interaction - though the workers are skilled. The loading and stoking of coal is highly automated. Protecting the coal chain would help protect the power supply. The natural gas largely comes from producing wells that need little extra labor, but obviously protecting workers who maintain oil and gas wells is another step. The gas comes through pipelines that use power. WITH SOME PLANNING, the modest number of workers could be protected and electricity supplies maintained.
You won’t have gas for cars and generators. Fire engines, emergency vehicles. Heaters,a.c. refrigeration. Traffic lights. I agree that electricity is top priorty. We can even get water from rivers, ponds, lakes, rain, but without electricty it would be almost impossible to live where I live.
I have posted this before, several months ago, but I believe that it bears repeating. Contact your local utility companies and ask them what their plans are in the event of a possible pandemic or other catastrophic event. My electicity company representative turned out to be a part-time EMT and went from “gee, hmmm, well, we all get a flu shot” to “I should really research this and find out exactly what our plans are and I should talk to the other EMTs that I work with and they should be prepared too”. According to that rep, the highest priority for the electric company here would be to keep the water pumps going, then keep the lights on for hospitals, nursing homes, police, fire, and residences. He said that they would shut off power to movie theaters, shopping malls, schools (unless they were being used for the sick), non-essential businesses, etc. in order to keep the power going to hospitals, residences, etc. Obviously, this is a best case and not a worst case scenario. But, if everyone would contact their local utility companies, maybe more plans would be made. Re: our local water plant, I find out that they cross train other city employees so that they know how to run the plant, and it takes a very small staff to keep the water flowing. By asking questions, at the very least, you might be helping one more person to gain some knowledge concerning a pandemic.
And, if TPTB, are paying attention, civil order will be MUCH easier to maintain if the power grid stays up.
I’m late to this thread but I wanted to thank TomDVM for his support of the farmer. While some farms are huge and automated, there still is a significant portion of food and feed grown on traditional family farms. For those who can, you might want to check into joining a CSA, it is the best idea I have seen in a long time.
I think the focus needs to be more on how our community will get along in the ABSCENCE of power, water, fuel, etc. If this pandemic is anything like we fear, there are going to be disruptions.
Finally those that know anything about farming will understand this:
Farming - The 5 to 9 job.
And one more:
A farmer won a huge multi-state lottery and when asked what he was going to do with all of that money he said:
“I guess I’ll just keep farming until it’s all gone.”
I have tried to begin to formulate an integrated solution, and I am stumped. Just the issue of spare parts for implementing ALL of the above solutions would eventually doom each country’s efforts, some sooner and some later. The whole world would have to be “on the same page”.
For instance, I have noted before on this site that John Deere now accesses over 17,000 parts for all of its industrial and farm machinery on a just-in-time basis from other countries. This type of interdependency is crippling when a panflu “wrench” is thrown into the works.
So even with the best of national planning things would eventually grind to a halt. Now how long is eventually?
Well, let us look at farming. During harvest it is a rare day that something does not break down that requires specialized tools, the expertise of the repairman, and overnight shipping of the needed part from across the country. The attrition of workable equipment would slowly grind the harvest to a halt. And that is assuming that the farmer has stockpiled enough fuel to complete his harvest.
We have leveraged ourselves to great heights so that we can now see to the ends of the Universe, but now when we possibly need to come down from those heights all we can see is dead air and the ground far below.
“We have leveraged ourselves to great heights so that we can now see to the ends of the Universe, but now when we possibly need to come down from those heights all we can see is dead air and the ground far below.”
That just about sums it up. I was thinking the other day about how the generation currently entering the workforce in the U.S. is not guaranteed to do better than their parents, something that has been taken for granted for a long time in this country. After PF51, the outlook for our grandchildren may very well be much more bleak.
Leo7 is right, it’s easy for me to be bold as I’m anonymous. The people who deserve credit are Michael Osterholm and Ilaria Capua who have put their careers on the line.
I don’t agree the situation is hopeless. Many thought getting the sequences released would never happen. It has already started to happen.
I think contacting our local utilities is a good idea. We won’t all get the same response. Some cities are proactive, others are not. Some will listen some won’t. But I do think action on a local level is insufficient.
If, as JJF suggests, high-level people in Energy are not taking the threat of a pandemic seriously, then that means the Secretary of the Department of Energy, Samuel Bodman, is not doing his job. Here is the DOE avian influenza page. Note that they link their plans to the WHO phase system. Does everyone understand why we curse the WHO, now? Our cities will collapse without electricity. Millions will starve without electricity. But we are relying on a bunch of bureaucrats in Geneva to tell us when to advance our preparations for Energy.
Jackie Flood is the contact person for pandemic flu planning for Energy. Perhaps we should send her a few pointed emails asking why nothing is being done by the DOE to make sure power plants are ready for a pandemic. You can get her email from the DOE avain flu page.
I read the DOE fact sheet on pandemic flu. It’s a glossy brochere with little real content. The thing that is amazing to me is that although Energy is critical for any number of threats, including terrorism, no steps have been taken to make this vital utility more secure, pandemic or no pandemic.
Inexcusable incompetence.
Im one of those folks who expects my elected officials and bureaucrats to do their jobs, so Im focusing on becoming the Wench from Hell to our County Disaster Planning Coordinator. I sent him an email a few days ago asking for an update on what was going on in the BF arena. He replied that he had a lot of info on the county website (TRUE - I wrote some of it!) and that his group was working with the Health Dept on a project; however, the HD had the lead.
I wrote back and asked him what he was going to be the lead on - and gave him a list of what I thought he might want to consider. CF to his boss, too, and the newspaper.
Key Points:
(a) You have got to be doing something to get through to the people who either think that it simply won’t ever happen - The Deniers - OR the govt will take care of them - The Entitled. The longer you put off the publicity campaign, the more strident it will have to be, and the more likely the people won’t have time to react responsibility. People generally do not panic when given the truth, consistently, repeatedly, and openly. Don’t underestimate the intelligence and resolve of your constituency. Use it.
(b) Take pre-pandemic actions to:
1. Stockpile supplies (food, water, medication and protective equipment) sufficient for a LONG TERM disaster, not just a couple of weeks. When this hits, it will go on for months and months.
2. Coordinate with, encourage, and directly help support pre-pandemic actions of the school system, first responders (most of which are volunteers), and other care-taker type organizations - faith based, Red Cross, Salvation Army, etc.
3. Prepare emergency county legislation (or at least administrative procedures) that will go immendiately into effect when pre-identified “target points” are hit. And make sure that the population knows about these well in advance and clearly understands why they are needed and how they will be beneficial, not only to the county and community, but to themselves as individuals. People can be very self-centered.
4. Take steps to ensure that the local water supply and electrical grid are as strong as they can be. This means stockpiling replacement parts, chemicals, etc. for the water/sewage system, cross-training employees, and evaluating operating procedures to ensure that, even under the most “unforeseeable” circumstances, the water system will continue to operate. And to coordinate with the Electric and Telephone companies to ensure that they are doing the same for the county.
In short, I want to know what you have been doing, specifically and in writing, as regards these types of issues. If you’ve been concentrating on something else, that’s fine. I want to know about it. If you havent thought or begun working on any of these things, I want to know that too. And when you plan to begin.
Yours truly, etc.
FWIW: I honestly expect to be farted off - but as a constituent, he owes me a response. If this becomes a huge issue (hopefully in the papers), then at least people will find out what is going on and be able to prepare themselves.
does anyone know the amount of food the U.S. Government has in it’s warehouses? powdered milk, cheese… stuff like that?
HBB- 8:48 As the wife of a 6th generation farmer on this particular piece of land, I thank you and TomDVM for your unwavering, outspoken support of the farmer on these threads.
Typical day for my husband and father-in-law starts at 6:30am and ends at 6pm for the physical labor, then it’s on to the marketing and business management side of the business for 2 hours a night or so.
That’s not during planting or harvesting, Then it’s more like 6am-12am.. with lights on combines, stopping at dark is a thing of the past.
Back on topic: I think community issues are the same as ours individually---- water & food------ for the vast majority of the developed world acquisition of food is from a market and water is pumped from a source, without electricty these don’t happen. Priorities need to be on the grid; the other things - transportation of food to the masses and pumping water should be much easier even if at a reduced level.
Eduk8or shuffles back to her corner to continue her lurking, coffee drinking and enjoy the last few days of her summer vacation.
Several people have pointed out that with JIT, disruption of global trade will eventually cripple modern civilisation. I think that’s true, if we don’t adapt.
But we can adapt, if we choose. We need to identify key equipment and start making and storing spare parts, now. We may need to retrofit some of our factories. During WWII, car factories were converted to tank factories very quickly. We can do the same. Women who had never worked outside the home were sudddenly making fighter planes. Don’t undersestimate the ability of people to adapt to a new situation. This is in our DNA. This ability may be asleep in most of us, but we can wake it up. And we don’t have to be 100% successful. The is tremendous waste in our society. We make a trenendous amount of junk. We’ll have to stop doing that an focus on what’s important. No to bobbleheads, yes to tractor parts.
Many of us are overweight. Guess we’ll be going on the pandemic diet. The only one guaranteed to work.
an excellent letter SaddleTramp imagine if he received a hundred like it every day
also suppose there is a plan but not publicized. surely there are ethical concerned individuals in high up government positions. maybe we need a campaign to force/coerce/push them into publicize what we might call “the real plan”
judging on how quick some of my exotic preps have disappeared, I wouldn’t count on that diet kicking in for a while
Monotreme at 9:25: I agree that it won’t be an “all or nothing” situation. It will come down to the skills that are available in the community and the materials that are stockpiled, whether by accident or design. Thirty years ago it would have been so much easier. At that time a guy could still repair his own car and the computer chips and diagnostic systems had not permeated the equipment that we all depend upon. Again, we leveraged ourselves significantly with the computer revolution, but at the same time we made ourselves so much more vulnerable.
I like SaddleTramp’s letter too. I also like the idea of FluWikians as viruses. If we each “infect” two people, and they each “infect” two people then eventually everyone will be prepped. TPTB will probably be last as they often seem to have very good immunity to commonsense and proactive planning.
moeb CFR6248, my fear is that the plan is hope it doesn’t happen or won’t really be that bad. If it does happen and it is bad, then I think the secret plan is to triage cities. Just my opinion.
I have had the same problem with my treat preps. That is why I am now buying mostly rice and beans.
rolling on the floor laughing (me too with the treat preps) but I have to say, a few weeks of continual rice and beans and I’ll be ready to throw in the towel
Monotreme – at 23:04
Crops that are extremely labor intensive is the harvesting of most fruit trees (oranges, apples, etc.), most salad greens (all lettuces, etc.), most bush fruits (strawberries, blueberries, etc.) … basically grains are about the only thing that doesn’t require hand-picking. Well, some root crops can be machine harvested … think potatoes, yams, etc.
Moeb at 9:22: Approximately 15 days of food per person in the United States according to the September 2005 USDA Crop Report. 4 days of that is the dried milk, cheese, etc. 11 days of the total is unprocessed wheat. But Monotreme, Okieman, and others have pointed out that there is lot of grain stored in this country awaiting shipment to overseas buyers. That could and would be accessed.
Cornmeal and bread could become very big again.
Tom DVM @ 9:27 How do you see the country and farming communities doing in a flu pandemic?
As far as food and water I think we have enough collective memory, practical experience, and close enough link to the land that this will be a none issue with some minor adjustments. Most of us have the pracitcal means to gerry-rig most anything for power from hydro-electric or wind.
Neighbor means something here and those that can’t get out to provide for themselves and/or family will be provided for, I have no doubt.
My husband’s biggest concern was articulated very well by MM @ 8:54.. he can stockpile diesel for tractors, but without parts he’s dead in the water, so to speak.. which ones of those 17,000 + to stockpile? Can’t begin to guess.. you can have the ones that always seem to be needed on hand, but there’s always 2 or 3 days during both planting and harvet that nothing is done because of waiting for a part to ship and then the tedious process of tearing the machine apart to reassemble.
My biggest concern is from a health standpoint, we have limited access to medical facilities & HCW’s now and that will only get worse in a pandemic. I was at our local hospital ER (15 miles away) last night with a friend (long story) and casually asked the ER nurse about how many ventilators the hospital had.
One… and if it was needed then the patient was stabilized using that ONE, and then transported to the regional facility 50 miles away. I’m guessing the other county hospitals in the 2 surrounding counties are the same.. so for 3 counties of people (~55,000) there are only 3 ventilators and the HCW to staff them are at regional facilities 50–60 miles away. mmmmm…
top ten recommendations?
move out of the city
relocate near hydro power (maybe Idaho)
hmm look for someone you can trust to hold your treat preps (probably not feasible)
Monotreme - I always knew you were a guy! I have been reading your posts for months and the fact that you have come out so strongly, has scared me into high gear. I look to you, Tom and Anon_22 as our “Triumperant” and am anxious to read her further posts.
moeb CFR6248 – at 09:22
http://afgen.com/starvation2.html
By September of 2005, there is now only 15.7 pounds of reserved foodstuffs in the food-chain for every man, woman, and child in the United States. This means that there has been an 80% decrease in the past two years. That decrease is becoming greater with every passing day in the United States. Of the 15.7 pounds of warehoused reserved food-stuffs, 11.0 pounds of the 15.7 pounds consists of unprocessed wheat. The rest of the 15.7 pounds of survival foods in storage for every man, woman, and child, totaling 4.7 pounds, consists of the following foods:
1. Non-fat dry milk 2. Cheese 3. Corn by the bushel 4. Peanuts by the pound 5. Lentils by the pound
That’s it folks ! . . . This is what the District of Columbia has set aside representing the 15.7 pounds in the survival food-chain for every man, woman, and child to stay alive on. This is not a daily supply, this amount represents the total food everyone will get for ….how long, who knows!
The U.S.D.A. Crop Production Report per September 12, 2005, contained said information, and this information was brought forth by Alan Guebert of the Farm & Food Report.
Eduk8or. Thanks.
Even if they had the ventilators…they won’t have anyone to run or monitor them.
I am afraid we are on our own as far as our children go and if they don’t start stockpiling the ‘boring’medications, they are going to drag us back to the middle ages.
Some might say that the farming communtity has been left there anyway…but I have a sneaky suspiscion that farmers are going to become VIP’s in the very near future.
Best of luck with the fall harvest. /:0)
BirdGuano – at 23:49 So without power, and thus irrigation, the production drops like a stone.
Minor point (in the overall scheme of things): most farm irrigation systems with which I am familiar do not rely on power. They only need gravity and someone to open & close the appropriate valves. Here in western Colorado, even when water must be lifted to a higher elevation, it is done hydraulically by running water downhill to spin a turbine and using the secondary impeller of the turbine to lift a lesser amount of water uphill. I was the ditch rider for one of the local irrigation districts for several years; it is a small district, supplying only 25 cubic feet of water per second (25 cfs) to our customers (that is 27,000 gallons per hour). One of the larger districts in the valley runs >400 cfs in their canal. While some farmers here running micro-jet irrigation for their orchards and vineyards might use electric pumps, most run furrow irrigation and do not need electric power. If there is a major electrical outage which lasts more than a few weeks, during irrigation season, all the farmers that I know could convert back to furrow irrigation.
the U.S.D.A. might be a location to direct attention to (letters, awareness campaign)
it occurs to me that trains are going to take on a national importance not seen in a long time
Medical Maven @ 8:54 - “John Deere now accesses over 17,000 parts for all of its industrial and farm machinery on a just-in-time basis from other countries.” It looks like we’re finally going to reap the rewards of outsourcing during a pandemic.
EduK8or @ 9:23 - As an American Historian I’d like to add my appreciation and admiration for farmers. They truly are the backbone of our country, not just because of the goods they produce, but because of their social, political and cultural contributions. Are you also a teacher? I ask because you mentioned summer vacation - the High Priestess that all teachers worship. Good luck this year.
Monotreme - I took you up on your suggestion to email Jackie Flood at the Department of Energy, and I also sent an email to their “contact us” email address on the main page for DOE, just in case.
Fellow Flu-wikians - please don’t let my email be lonely! If Ms. Flood gets a large number of emails requesting information on DOE plans to keep the grid up during a pandemic, maybe there will actually end up being a plan to keep the grid up during a possible pandemic. I believe that we can be a powerful voice, especially if we all ask questions at the same time.
Note: sorry if you don’t live in the US, I certainly do not want to offend anyone or leave anyone out, but whatever country you live in, maybe now is the time to email your government agencies and start asking questions.
WIT
Watching in Texas… could you post the email address please? and official title of the person?
moeb CFR6248 at 10:42
Well, I used the email address from the link that Monotreme posted at 09:15, BUT, I just got the email that I sent to Jackie Flood back and it said it was undeliverable??? It appears that the email that I sent to the general DOE email address went through. I sent that one to: The dot Secretary at hq dot doe dot gov
I will try to send the email that I sent to Jackie Flood to the above address with a request to forward it to her.
I see Crofsbog mentioned today about www.greenhammer.net(don’t know how to make it a link) in regards to disaster-preparedness. At Greenhammer, it’s under an Aug. 20 column-“Conundrum and faith”--where it discusses neighborhoods & organizations, etc. making preparedness plans.
I tried to re-send the email to Ms. Flood and it came back again as undeliverable.
I sent my original email to the main email address and requested they forward it to her.
I also sent an email to the main address requesting Ms. Floods’ correct email address and/or if I should be emailing someone else…
I will let you know what/if I hear anything.
Monotreme - any suggestions?
History Lover @ 10:38 Are you also a teacher?
Yes, I am.. 20 years this year. Hence the name on here “Eduk8or”
Love it, can’t imagine doing anything else as a career.
Thanks for your support of family farmers.
sorry that was me above…
This may sound a little weird, but along with physical prepping for the community, and finding out who the “in charge” people are … how about finding local people with skills that might come in handy?
For instance, does your community have a “living history” exhibit? Who are the people that organize and man it? What kind of skills could they bring to the table in worst case scenario?
Do you have any boy scout troops in your area? Who are the scout master(s)? Where is the local council? Who are the merit badge counselors for the traditional skills such as camping, wilderness survival, first aid, public health, safety, truck transportation, railroading, metalworking, plumbing, etc.? You could have some real grass movement come out of traditional scout skills … even from people who may not practice these skills on an everyday basis.
What about local contracting companies? Any that are specialist in areas that might prove useful? Sort of like a civilian corp of engineers? What if large quarantine facilities need to be erected quickly? Who do you call on if you have road or bridge wash outs? Who might know how to shut off water mains if there is a pipe line rupture?
Do you have local “story tellers”? Maybe they could be enlisted through local libraries to help with either a modified educational system or entertainment in the event of large numbers of children with incapacitated legal guardians.
Librarians themselves are a huge resource. If the new computer card catalogs go down … librarians would already know what kind of resources are available and where they might be found so that people could learn new skills or refresh ones that they’ve kind of forgotten since childhood.
Also, where the nearest repository library? The big university here in Tampa is a repository libary. They keep copies of just about everything. I used to take my break in the basement and just look at really old, old magazines that had amazing “how to” articles in them. And some great recipes as well. <grin>
Seriously though … if those “in the box” are going to “drop the ball” we may need to start thinking “outside the box.”
Been thinking about the water problem (i.e needing electricity to pump water esp. to cities — not so much thinking about irrigation at this time… one problem at a time…)
Power companies and electric companies have to prepare for all sorts of emergencies, panflu is one; panflu + a natural disaster at the smaae time is probebly a bigger one; panflu with a huge CFR is another one; terrorist attack on the Grid is a huge one — and so on.
It seems as much as we need them to plan on their end (with back up fuel, cross-training) and we need individuals to plan on our end (store water; alternative fuel sorces at home) we could also use some intermediary planning on the community level.
If there is *some* fuel but not enough for everything, we need a way to have everyone cut back on water use. I don’t know how much water a household actually uses, but I remember it being a LOT more than what is just needed for survival. We don’t really need the electricity to pump a gazillion gallons of water to every house and apartment per day. We only *need* it to pump 1 gallon per day per person.
So is there a way to ration water to each household, each apartment? Because you can TELL people to limit water to the bare necessities, but you cannot enforce that regulation, and there will always be someone who think his/her bath or shower is a “necessity”.
In a truly drastic situation (and that is what I understand we are planning for here) what about cutting off all water to residences, and openeing up a central supply source, such as a fire hydrant on each street? Is there any way to pump water without electricity? I have vague memories of fire engines in the old days with a bunch of men and hand pumps.
What if we have a situation with healthy employees sequestered at the power plant, some fuel but a shhortage looming, and a need to get some water out to the populace?
What about a community having a back-up plan to staff some fire hydrants within walking distance of a certain street, to pump and allot a daily or weekly ration of water? (Kind of like visiting the town pump)? There could be just enough electricty to getthis much water to the towns and cities, but no more. More electricty and water could be sent to vital places like hospitals, etc. This way you could be sure that no one was using more water than necessary.
I know in a panflu situation with a high CFR no one would want to congregate by the “water pump” or staff the dispensing either. But, you would know they were deperate for water if they came out. And, it doesn’t seem like a very high risk of exposure — it could be done with a minimum of interaction. And the idea is useful for other situations, too where you fear loss of power alone will make it impossible to pump the wtaer.
Just an idea that occurred to me as I passed an open fire hydrant today — my thought was, how to get water to a lot of people without needing to truck it all in…..
anonymous – at 12:22
For the water, they might be able to install temporary water “governors.” A governor allows “x” amount of water to flow through the valve before it automatically shuts off.
It would cost some big bucks to install those on individual homes and apartments … and as for multi-home set ups such as apartments and duplexes may not even be feasible due to the fact that you have more than one household per water meter. It could create a lot of consternation and laying blame … ‘“they” used “our” share of the water.’
They could have an “on/off” schedule perhaps allowing for the system to be pressurized as needed. For instance, the water for neighborhood 1 is on from 6–6:30 am, for neighborhood 2 the water is on from 6:45 - 7:15 am, etc. Definitely would require people in the know to figure out all the technical difficulties. But by routing water through various mains vs. trying to water the whole town you could possibly get away with less pressure and since the water availability is more limited, then they will need to process less water, use fewer chemicals to make all drinking water potable, etc. They just need to be prepared for a big draw from each neighborhood what the water IS on.
What to do about non-potable water for flushing, etc. I don’t know. Perhaps an education program on how to trap rainwater for this purpose, community plans for distributing non-potable water at the neighborhood level, advancing the reclaimed water program in the community, etc.
Info about nuclear power plants from NRC, April 2006:
“The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has initiated planning to address the potential effects of an avian flu pandemic on its operations and held a workshop yesterday to discuss relevant issues. The NRC is focusing on those critical functions that must be maintained in the event of high absenteeism caused by an avian flu pandemic and the regulatory relief or other actions that may be necessary to maintain the safe operation of nuclear power plants facing similar staff shortages.
Based on federal government planning assumptions, the NRC is determining how to maintain mission-critical functions with absenteeism as high as 40 percent for periods of weeks in the course of a 12- to 18-month period. Other federal government agencies are conducting similar assessments. The nuclear power industry is creating its own business continuity planning and site-specific options, and is discussing its efforts and potential needs with the NRC.
“We need to think creatively and strategically and work together to address this potentially serious issue,” said NRC Commissioner Jeffrey Merrifield, who was asked by Chairman Nils J. Diaz to assume a lead role in the review of the planning effort. “Such a pandemic, should it occur, will be a serious issue for this country, and maintaining the electrical grid while continuing to provide for the safety and security of our communities will be one of the most important tasks this country faces.”
The workshop, closed to the public due to the sensitive nature of much of the discussions, included several panels and drew attendees from other federal agencies, state government and power companies. Discussions included a status of the flu and the availability of vaccines and antiviral medication; steps that might minimize the spread of the disease, including sequestering employees; the status of resident inspectors; the possibility of and process for granting regulatory relief from minimum staffing or work hour requirements; and the possibility of deferring certain activities, such as exercises.
The NRC anticipates continuing discussions with the industry and the possibility of issuing generic guidance or other information in upcoming months.
The agency formed an internal working group in March that is preparing a report, to be finalized in the next few months, outlining what key mission-critical activities the NRC must maintain and how to use teleworking, recent retirees, deferring activities, and other strategies to maintain critical functions. After the report is approved by the Commission, appropriate portions will be made public.”
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