I understand, that the possible pandemic strain is not yet known, but we could pick a strain and vaccinate nevertheless, and some doses of prepandemic vaccine do exist. To protect against 50% of this year’s H5N1, I guess that maybe 5–10 different vaccines are needed. How much would it cost ? Where can we get it ? Is there any company,organisation,doctor in any country who already sells prepandemic vaccine to individuals ? Isn’t it worth the effort/price ?
We could use the GDP , divide by the inhabitants and that price, divide by the % of assumed protection and get a rough estimate for the probability that a person will die from H5N1 this season.
Getting some gist of shortages?
Going to say, “You can’t get it”, see?
CIDRAP Aug 8, 2005, …”production concerns considerable”… “The doses that were most effective contained 90 micrograms of H5N1 antigen in each of two shots, compared with the 15 micrograms of antigen given via a single injection in typical annual flu vaccinations.”… “The high doses needed for protection against H5N1 pose obvious challenges in regard to production capacity. In a Wall Street Journal (WSJ) article … Fauci said the 2 million US doses already ordered might cover only 450,000 people.
Supplying even the amount of vaccine ordered for yearly US influenza vaccination programs is problematic, as evidenced by last flu season’s shortage when the Chiron company was unable to produce the almost–50 million doses it was to supply to the United States. In a flu pandemic, vaccine for the worldwide population would be needed.
The new vaccine, like yearly flu vaccines, is grown in chicken eggs, so the amount that can be produced is dependent on the supply of eggs that producers can supply to vaccine companies. And the growth process takes several months. Experiments on cell-culture vaccines, which would circumvent these limitations, are under way, but their clinical use is far distant. Said Fauci in the Times article, “The critical issue now is, can we make enough vaccine, given the well-known inability of the vaccine industry to make enough vaccine?”
Infectious disease expert Michael Osterholm said the news is hopeful, but he expressed great concern over supply issues. Even though the dosage will likely be refined as study continues, he told CIDRAP News, “We’re starting, from these results, with the amount of antigen needed to immunize a person standing at 12 times what’s needed for a typical flu vaccination.”
And the limiting factors aren’t only the egg supply. “We need to quickly scale up capacity,” said Osterholm,” …
“Since the current annual vaccine-production capacity worldwide is about 1 billion doses of the 15 microgram–antigen vaccine,
right now we have the ability to produce less than enough vaccine for 100 million people in the first year of a pandemic.
This covers less than 2% of the 6.5-billion world population.
The bottom line is that this will do little to stop or even arrest a worldwide pandemic.” …
Government sectors, grunt soldiers, guard squads, good scientists, gene sequencers, grid specialists, glassware scrubbers - that “less than 2%” will go soon. Gone to some who’ve got their shots already, glum and sad as that may be.
The manufacturing capacity does not exist to make a vaccine that would protect all who want it. Even if all got sick and none died, supply chain problems, and households and countries needing to change their priorities and become more self-suffucient (and, caring about good science) is enough of a challenge.
I assume that the capacity will be increased, when there is demand. I remember,there are 4 strains in the USA vaccine ? The Chinese (Sinovac) want to produce 20 million doses next year (<10 microgram), no price given either. Switzerland ordered 8 million doses by Feb.2007. I don’t know, what it costs and what strains are included and how many microgram. Maybe someone else can help ? Are there other countries with prepandemic vaccine ?
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