From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Keeping the Grid Up

07 October 2006

Monotreme – at 13:27

I’m starting this thread to discuss what’s needed to keep the GRID up. As a result of discussions on several other threads, I’m convinced that this should be the number one priority for the federal government. I’m not sure it is.

A great post by Jumping Jack Flash on one of the Community Prep pages is now an Opinion called Keeping the GRID up. It would be great if anyone with expertise in this area would read this Opinion and comment on it. Also, if there are any signs that the federal government is making any real progress in hardening the GRID for a pandemic, please post here.

lugon – at 13:46

As usual, we (all?) have to:

  1. look at the problem
  2. suggest some solution
  3. try to make it happen or at least facilitate it

Here we’re at #3, I guess.

I’m-workin’-on-it – at 13:58

From Jumping Jack Flash: I don’t see any of this. But they have a committee that’s making a plan. Whippty shit.

I love that…..whippty shit…..that’s funny. Too bad the statements in his Opinion are all too true & not funny at all.

lugon – at 13:59

Here we’re at #3, I guess.

Or maybe not.

lugon – at 14:09

Monotreme, I recall there was some work done with Water Supply. Maybe we can try and see how much basic power is needed, how many people (and families) etc, so that people (from gov down to each community) will be able to see the whole picture and also the local picture.

If big govs don’t do it, then maybe smaller scale places will want to go on their own, just like some individuals have already started doing:

Some places will want to do two kinds of plans:

http://www.willitseconomiclocalization.org/Papers/Papers.htm

lugon – at 14:11

We may want help from http://www.worldchanging.com and allies. But we also need to focus on what we know best: sudden parallel massive outbreaks that last for several weeks and then reappear over a year or more.

Monotreme – at 14:13

lugon,

The problem with the Grid is that it is interdependent. If some of it goes down, it all goes down. This is fundamentally different from Water. Only a federal solution will work. Either the Feds take of this, or plan for no electricity. Or much of anything else.

Average Concerned Mom – at 14:22

i have only questions, no answers.

what assumptions are being made by those planning to keep the grid up in a pandemic? And who is advising them? and is this public knowledge?

i.e. are power companies planning for 30% workforce ill for 2 weeks? i.e. .2% CFR or 2% CFR and people ill for months? and is everyone planning with each other?

lugon – at 14:25

ACM, great questions.

I wonder what they are doing in Europe.

Kathy in FL – at 14:38

There is probably a bit of control in the local areas. For instance, when power is expected to go out because of storms around here there are priorities of what locations are to be kept on … hospitals, evacuation facilities (if possible), points of government and emergency response.

Couldn’t the same type of thinking occur here?

Additionally, thoughts on how to keep any power outage from being long term. Perhaps “rolling brown outs” so that various sectors have power for “x” amount of any given day or set of days?

If the power supply is in danger, letting people know up front that your power will go off between “x” time and “x” time and will remain off until approximately “x” o’clock on such a date, it should deminish the panic.

It would also give people who are dependent on electricity for life sustainability (oxygen, etc.) the opportunity to relocate … if that is feasible. At the very least, it would give families the opportunity to prepare in advance.

I know people are going to want to maintain status quo. And we all know that people are going to complain if they can’t have their ac or their heat. Scares me to think of what is going to happen at our rental units … I can hear it now, people blaming their landlords if they don’t have power at any given time. Heck they complain like it is our fault that their power goes out if a storm knocks their power out, like there is anything that we can do about it. We’ve gotten calls in the middle of hurricanes to come fix the ac or what have you.

Unrealistic expectations are going to be a problem at all levels. But by have a good public information response in place, then every is affected at some point and everyone knows that at some point the power will come back on.

Kathy in FL – at 14:40

I guess what I’m saying is that allowing a minimum impact in loss of power is still better than the panic that would result from prolonged power loss.

Average Concerned Mom – at 14:55

i can’t stress strongly enough how much I fear that the assumptions being made by those ADVISING power companies may be very different from one state to another. Just look at what Monotreme found from reviewing each state’s pandmeic plans.

If some areas are expecting and planning for a 1968-like pandemic (because that’s what they were advised by the CDC? or thought they were advised?) then their plans iwll only reflect that scenario. And if anyone starts talking about roadblocks, lack of oil or gas or whatever, they will be laughed out of court so to be speak as being hysterical….

A former Lurker – at 14:58

I think one of the most important thngs that have to be addressed and need a constant reminder is to…”Turn Everything OFF” with the exception of a couple of lights. This will keep the load lighter that the power comapanies have to push. The lighter the push the faster the power comes back on. When it does, start your large appliances slowly over a period of a couple of hours or you may shut it right back down again. They don’t need a big drain just as everything is coming back on line……Also for those of you with generators, please have them hooked into your house properly by a Qualified Electrician, impropertly installed and generators can send an electrical charge down a line and kill any or all the lineman that are woking on it. We don’t need to loose these guys, they are our life blood.

lugon – at 15:00

ACM, We might have to use PFAW (and lots of time after that) just to make clear that there are different possible pandemics.

note to self: explain 3 flues is done, now explain several pandemics - give legs to the meme

Average Concerned Mom – at 15:21

lugon — yes, that would be a good idea. But I’m still wondering about where power companies (and other critical infrastructure companies) are getting their planning assumptions. They are engineers, and businesspeople, not experts in infectious disease, nor do they have virologists on staff. They plan extremely well (in most cases) for hurricanes, and tornadoes, and ice storms and downed trees. But these emergenices last only a few days to a week or so and there is help available from other districts. Anyhow, these are events that happen often enough that there are data points about them. For a pandemic — there is no data. How do the planners even know if they are getting the same date that other states are getting?

I’m remembering something Confused Exec wrote about 6 months ago, lets see if I can find it: on A current Threat Assessment. (Confused Exec whatever happened to you? And Power Grid Guy??)

http://tinyurl.com/glpje

Confused Exec at 14:13

“The reason I find this important from the corporate viewpoint is that we are a critical infrastructure entity and are attempting to estimate absenteeism due to the illness itself. We have run numerous scenarios, but I am not yet completely comfortable with the assumptions due to the lack of clarity about infection rates, “clinical” or otherwise. “

lugon – at 15:39

It may all boil down to us making the most of PFAW and the remaining time after that. A message a day, maybe.

Monotreme – at 17:02

Average Concerned Mom – at 14:55

I think there are two messages going out. The one from the CDC is: “Don’t worry, we’ve got everything under control. The pandemic will probably be mild, if it occurs at all. And if there is a remote possibility that it will be severe, better not tell the public or they will panic.”

You can read the CDC assessment here.

The other message is that we should plan for a severe pandemic. This is coming from Secretary Leavitt (Pandemic Planning Assumptions) and some within the Department of Homeland Security.

Unfortunately, I think the Department of Energy is listening to the CDC.

LEG – at 18:41

please translate PFAW - I can not find it in the Forum Shorthand list.

lugon – at 18:44

LEG: Pandemic Flu Awareness Week

http://www.fluwikie.com/pmwiki.php?n=Main.PandemicFluAwarenessWeek2006

LEG – at 18:56

thanks so much

pfwag – at 20:22

It is probably going to depend on when PBF hits and how much of the country it hits at the same time.

As we saw in the NE a few years ago just one failure in the grid can take the whole thing down for days. Add inclement weather and PBF the days may turn into weeks for some people.

I was talking with an engineer in the Western Area Power Administration a few weeks ago and was told that if just one of the major transmission lines goes down we in the west are in BIG TROUBLE.

The grid is basically running at capacity, is aging and JIT inventory means major repair items aren’t sitting around in somebody’s store house. With PBF there also may not be anybody to deliver them for a while.

Monotreme – at 22:16

pfwag – at 20:22

Thanks for the info.

If ever there was a case for all-hazards prepping, hardening the GRID seems to be a total no-brainer. No-one denies that GRID failure would be catastrophic. No-one denies that the GRID has numerous problems and desperately needs upgrading, panflu or no panflu.

And yet nothing is being done. What is the deal with this? How do we get Congress and the Administration to take this seriously? Does a law need to be passed or what? The lack of action on this key component of the nation’s infrastructure is baffling to me. This should be national security issue number 1.

Medical Maven – at 22:39

Monotreme at 22:16-The articles about “fixing” this problem center on political problems and turf problems. Too many “Iron rice bowls” are at risk with the prospect of really reforming and revamping the grid. It almost makes the immigration problem look simplistic.

Monotreme – at 22:42

Medical Maven – at 22:39

We shall overcome.

Medical Maven – at 22:53

Monotreme at 22:42-“We shall overcome……”

by paradoxically wishing for little disasters so that we can get off of our dead ass and prepare for the megadisasters.

Jumping Jack Flash – at 23:21

Monotreme – at 22:16.

Deregulation. It produced positive results for consumers in the airline, telephone, trucking, etal industries. The power industry embarked on deregulation in 1996. This means some of the power used in Fort Wayne might be generated Georgia, or vis versa.

As temperature swings from moderate to extreme, so does the cost of power. Therefore, power tends to flow from a moderate temperature region to a region experiencing an extreme temperature.

The power system was not designed or built to ship power across the country. Utilities orginally connected to one another with tie lines to assist one another with contingencies. The tie lines, built for the purpose of withstanding emergencies, are now being utilized to ship power from moderate to extreme temperatur zones.

Think of utility “A” that has power costing $30 per megawatt (MW) and utility “C” that is incurring a $100 per MW cost. This power must flow through company “B”’s wires. Why would company “B” invest in more wires so that companies “A” and “C” can benefit?

Jumping Jack Flash – at 23:39

Sorry folks. That last post had nothing to do with pan flu. The intent was to offer insight as to why the grid has become so fragile.

As for pan flu, I’m seeing utility interest closely correlate to the fluwikie site meter. Look at it.

All I can say, from an insiders point of view, is all my entertainment and recreation $$ have been reallocated to preps. Hope like holly heck I’m wrong.

Prepping Gal – at 23:41

When I think of no heat in the winter I recall the movie (can’t recall title right now) about unusual weather patterns that cause the northern hemisphere to freeze beyond human capabilities. In the end Canada and north half of the USA was obliterated with instant freeze. So southern USA americans headed to the Mexican border and were accepted as refugees. So I got thinking we may become a nomad or moving type of continent. In the spring we all head north to Canada where we have moderate heat and lots of resources, then in the fall we head to the southern USA.

Oh that’s right we have a group doing that already. Silly me. It’s the Snowbirds you see in Arizona and Florida.

Just because its millions of people and hasn’t been done before doesn’t mean it couldn’t work after we work out a few details.

NauticalManat 23:53

Jumping Jack Flash

Boils down to the fact that after the last big failure the usual Congressional study and others were done, recommendations were made, all knew what needed to be done, and the Power industry did the All American thing, they lobbyed Congress to try to avoid spending their money. Let someone else pay for it. This is what happened in New Orleans, does anyone think that even after the latest repairs to the levees that NO will be safe. NO needs a system such as the Netherlands, or London, or Venice, but that takes serious money, money that can be used for we all know what, take your pick. I have little faith anymore in our system. For most of my life I did have faith that in spite of human frailties and shortcomings that the right thing would be done eventually. Not any more. Sorry for the political rant, and neither party, IMHO, has cornered the market in shortsightedness. Too many of them continue to tell the masses that taxes are evil, but you get what you pay for and we certainly have gotten that in recent years. We had a saying in the Federal Government, BOHICA. Bend Over, Here It Comes Again. Next big power failure, they will all bemoan the fact that we have to do something, and they will, but probably not enough to solve it. The Federal Government used to be thought of as capable of doing anything, now… Good example and then I will go away and get some sleep. After the FEMA debacle, Congress recently passed a law requiring minimal experience for the next FEMA Director, as it has for other positions. The President signed it, and a few days later, with no publicity, signed one of his infamous signing statements that said in effect that he did not have to obey that law. Nuff said.

08 October 2006

Jumping Jack Flash – at 00:49

NauticalMan – at 23:53 .

could you please split your thoughts into paregraphs?

tks in advance…

Jumping Jack Flash – at 01:14

i’m planning for grid failure.

that is based on I, pencil.

quartine. nothing more, nothing less, will keep the geid up

it ain’t happening….

lugon – at 06:56

Let’s imagine - yes, I know this takes a BIG leap of imagination - that we have no control at all about the grid. We can’t influence policy makers and, if we influence them, they have no control over what people do. Or, if they do, things run so slow and with such small impact that their actions are useless.

So, at least for a day, we forbid ourselves even thinking about TPTB, governments and other “big guys out there”.

What other things can we do?

lugon – at 07:29

I think we can:

An example: maybe a specialist can tell us about how to cut the grid in small pieces so that trouble here doesn’t mean trouble everywhere?

If sudden deglobalization is the problem, could we have planned-for deglobalisation?

lugon – at 07:30

just like with Forum.EmergencyCommunityCurrenciesII: planned-for deglobalisation - isn’t that what SIPping is all about?

lugon – at 07:37

I think a mixture of “use less energy” + “cut the grid in pieces” would minimise damage. Maybe we can re-stitch the grid back again *only when strictly needed*?

uk bird – at 07:49

There used to be quite detailed plans for maintaining the utilities in the UK, created during the cold war. I suspect that much of the current planning has involved dusting them off and changing the wording.

I have heard that there was a plan to SIP vital employees (and their families) in power stations during major emergencies (eg nukes) but that was in the day when places had proper canteens. I’m not sure how viable it is now but they’d certainly have access to pure water, electrcity, masks and relative security.

The UK is now very vulnerable to the reliability of the gas supply. We might still be up and running but will our supply still get to us? How much slack can the other types of generation take up?

Average Concerned Mom – at 10:18

Jumping Jack Flash at 23:39

“As for pan flu, I’m seeing utility interest closely correlate to the fluwikie site meter. Look at it.”

What do you mean? Can you explain, I don’t get it.

Average Concerned Mom – at 10:22

lugon — for possible solutins, did anyone read the NYT article awhile ago about Iraq’s “generator men”?

To deal with sporadic electricity from the government (maybe just 2 hours a day) they have small generators on about every corner in cities to run extension cords from people’s houses to run their a/c and other appliances. Maybe pump water from wells?

http://tinyurl.com/r2n5u

Would seem to require a steady source of fuel though.

janetn – at 10:31

Questions 1 What percentage of power is generated by natural gas, and how does that gas get to a generating plant?

2 Same question regarding coal plants.

3 What does it mean to the cababilities of the power plants when say 25% of the work force is gone? Can a power plant continue to function with a skelton staff? is it different depending on the type of plant?

4 Is there a national plan? Or has this been kicked down to the state level as everything else has?

5 Who would be the person at the local utility company to contact to get the plans details for that utuility?

6 Just how interdependant is the grid, can it function locally? What I mean by that is can the power generated within a state stay in that state so that the process of transfering power long distances can be eliminated? Which would cut down on tha manpower need.

Sorry if these questions are stupid but Id like to have some basic knowledge before I contact my power company.

Jumping Jack Flash – at 10:49

Average Concerned Mom – at 10:18.

The site meter (the rainbow looking thing at the bottom of the home page) indicates how much interest there is or has been in fluwikie.

It peaked about May 1st and hits have dropped off significantly. I think the site is getting about 1/30th of the traffic it used to. Alot of people have lost interst and or concern.

NJ Jeeper – at 11:04

I have noticed not as many postings. There was a lot of activity in the spring when it looked like this thing was going to cover the world soon. I think many have prepped about all they can at this point. Also, when it starts spreading again this winter and if it ever goes H-H-H in significant amounts, then look out.

I can not imagine this site holding up at 30 times current volume. I hope the computer experts here are “prepped” to handle that volume. That is when we will need you most. Everyone plus their cousins will be looking here for advice and the “go” signal.

Monotreme – at 11:04

lugon,

For the long-term, it would probably be prudent for people to think about ways to lessen their dependence on the GRID. However, that approach won’t help us much if the pandemic occurs soon. It’s not just that we need electricity to run our refrigerators, electricity is needed for almost everything aspect of civilization. Farm equipment won’t run without diesel, diesel can’t be refined without electricity, etc. If the GRID goes down, civilization goes down.

Jumping Jack Flash – at 11:04

janetn. Your questions are good questions.

Generation fleet is comprised of about 52% coal, 20% nuclear, 15% gas, 10% hydro, 3% other.

Gas gets to the plants via pipe lines and requires electric power to send it. no power = no gas.

The plants could run if they prepared to do what Gunnison (sp) Colorado did in 1918. Quarantine. I don’t see quarantine preps. Maybe the preps are there, but I’m not aware of them.

To get an idea of the “plan”, I suggest you review the NERC pandemic plan. Many Utilities are forming a “plan” based on that. It does not leave me with a warm fuzzy feeling.

Quarantine power plants. That’s the only thing that MIGHT work.

Even if plants are quarantined, if they break down it is very likely that quarantine would have to be lifted in order to get a part for it. The I, pencil thread expresses my thoughts on that much more eloquently and in greater detail than I ever could.

Monotreme – at 11:12

janetn,

Jumping Jack Flash can give you better answers, but here’s a little bit of information.

Monotreme – at 11:16

Jumping Jack Flash,

Does the Federal Government have the authority to mandate that powerplants prepare for SIP for their employees? Or would new legislation be required?

Is it technically possible to create fail-safe cutoffs of regions that are failing so that other regions don’t also go down? If so, how much would this cost?

Oremus – at 11:17

As houses become tombs, power consumption will drop. Keeping the grid up will require keeping the techs and operators healthy, having spare parts available, and enough fuel.

Jumping Jack Flash – at 11:38

Back during the cold war utilities were stocked up with food and water to sit for quite a while. (6 months??) Control centers were built with 30 inch reinforced concrete and lead doors. That mind set has disappeared.

I’m not aware of any federal power that can for utilities to prepare.

One could ask NERC or their local utility some pointed questions about their so called “plan”. The opening remarks on the “Why A Severe Pandemic is Likely” thread has some good points.

As for technical feasability of fail safe cutoffs. I suppose it could be done. No idea of cost. The 2003 northeast blackout started with a generation deficiency in Cleveland, that sucked power out of Toledo, Detroit, then Windsor, Toronto, across the Niagra Gorge all the way to NYC. 4 tie lines between Pennsylvania and New York tripped (fortunately). This contained the blackout to the Northeast. Many industry experts do not understand why these lines tripped and the blackout did not continue to pull the rest of the grid down.

cottontop – at 11:38

It is silly to think for one minute that if people are told to conserve power, they will. The national guard installed a generator on our sub station(or something like that), and our power company asked us to use one light. that’s it. This was mainly for the farmers around here, to help them out. That lasted about 2 hours. We were blasted on the radio from our power company, and the generator was shut down. Boy was that guy upset. People started trying to power up their houses, and it overloaded.

The majority of the people will not conserve power. Count on that. We were told to conserve when the grid was finally up and running. Well true to human mindset, people, once again started powering up their homes, and the power was off and on for 3 more days.

Jumping Jack Flash – at 11:45

This may sound harsh, but if it were my called on how to ration power, I would prioritize as follows:

1. water treatment 2. sewage 3. natural gas pumps / compressors 4. gasoline / diesel manufacture and distribution 5. food manufacture and distribution 6. hospitals 7. emergency services 8. residential customers 9. commercial customers 10. industrial customers

The rationale why hospitals are down on the list is far more collateral casualities would occur without water, food, and sanitation. IMHO.

Medical Maven – at 11:52

We have talked about nations everywhere jealously guarding their vaccines in the event of a pandemic, would that not be the case for critical spare parts? As I have said before, I recently read John Deere JITs 17,000 spare parts from overseas for its farm and industrial machinery.

So if we have a realistic SIP plan for all of the Crid, and we get a little lucky we maybe can get by the first wave, (if that is the way the panflu unfolds). But what about the second wave?

In the 1930s legislative mistakes throttled world commerce and helped to deepen and lengthen the Great Depression. I see a atavistic rush to husband all resources in the event of a pandemic. And what horsetrading goes on will delay prompt delivery. And “timing” will be everything with the Grid.

BrooklynBoundat 11:58

Here is a practical suggestion for those who live in suburban and rural areas and receive their electricity through overhead power lines. As noted already, during a pandemic any power outage will be slow to resolve. Prevention may be the best cure:

1. Survey your property along the path of the power lines to determine if any potential threat exists from nearby trees or other objects. Most power outages are caused by storm and tree damage to power lines. Since any work around power lines can be very dangerous, if any overhanging branches or nearby trees threaten the power lines you should seek professional tree removal services to correct the condition. It may be possible to request this service from your power company at no cost to you.

2. Go to the next step and try and survey the power line in your immediate neighborhood leading from your property to the main road and/or the main power trunk lines.

3. For an extra margin of safety, go into Google Maps and print out a detailed road map of your community. (You can also print the satellite images for even greater detail.) Equipped with your detailed local map, take a nice Sunday morning drive up and down your local roads with a companion/navigator, surveying the main power lines along the roadside. Mark your map wherever you encounter a threat to the power lines from trees and use your results to inform your local power company, or emergency planning authority of the conditions.

Medical Maven – at 12:01

BB at 11:58; Great idea for a less than catastrophic situation and good for “normal” times too.

lugon – at 12:15

we’re screwed

NauticalManat 12:36

Jumping Jack Flash

Sorry for my late night rant and long, long paragraph. Always have had a tendency to carry a thought into one long continuous sentence. My frustration at the whole political process gets worse the older I get. The other day emailed the manager of my town’s (municipal) electric comppany to question him on what plans they have to keep the power flowing, but as we know, the whole system is only as good as its weakest link. The town does not generate any power on its own, simply buys from commercial generators and we get very favorable rates, one of the lowest in the state (MA).

What I have read here on fluwikie before and on this thread does not encourage me that the grid will be reliable during normal Winter/Summer peak usage, never mind Pandemic mode. As Monotreme and others have said, and it has occured to me, it is possible that if most people SIP, reduced demand from huge office bldgs and industry etc., will possibly keep overall demand from overloading the system. Of course, as is also said here often, hope can not substitute for a plan.

JWB – at 12:47

Monotreme – at 11:04

If the GRID goes down, civilization goes down.


I was working at AEP (largest electricty transmission company in the U.S.)headquarters in Columbus Ohio when 9/11 hit. Everyone was freaking out about the grid, in terms of how easy it would be to collapse it intentionally.

The saying was “No electricity, no country.”

I have a portable generator. Nuff said.

janetn – at 12:58

If there is no viable plan to keep the electricity flowing it will be catastrophic in the winter. Most people have no way to heat there homes that is not dependant on electricity to power the furnace blowers. In rural areas water will be a critical issue. Id quess that in rural areas 25% have genny’s and if they have gas they could hold out for a few weeks. Maybe 25% have wood heat. Cities would fare much worse. During localised storms when the power is lost for a few days shelters are set up to prevent people from freezing to death. You cant very well have large groups in shelters during a pandemic.

The death toll from a loss of power even for a few days would outstrip the toll from the flu. Freezing to death is a real possability in my neck of the woods. Most families are not prepared to face a power outage in the winter. Somebody tell me that there is a plan that is workable. The alternative is just horrifiying. TPTB have got to have thought this out they cannot be that stupid, please tell me they arent.

NauticalManat 13:00

JWB - I agree. Bottom line for me, what is the one thing I can’t do without if power is out for any length of time? Can not survive without heat in the winter. Can plan for food, water for a month or two, cooking, so guess it is time to store more wood for the old stove. We have to assume, although we should not assume anything I guess, that TPTB will put power then water at the top of the list, and that those things will be there, at least some of the time. As we know, most of us here figure we are on our own, after all, this is what the government keeps telling us. Maybe YOYO should be our motto!

JWB – at 13:14

I more concerned with “I Pencil”, ( http://tinyurl.com/qjlwt ), then about personnally meeting Mr. H5N1

Medical Maven – at 13:21

JWB at 13:14-I am right there with you. Outfoxing H5N1 is a piece of cake in comparison. I am totally confident that I have the means and the rigourous habits that would enable me to avoid exposure for a very long time, IF it were not for the “collateral damage”.

janetn – at 13:54

I have heated with wood for years and my neighbor is a well driller. The first sign of a pandemic a stab well with a hand pump is ging in. We can live fairly comfortably without electricity. Most people cannot, thats my concern. Government first concern is to preserve itself. If they have neglected to form a viable plan to keep the lights on they will doom themselves. Without electricity they cannot govern they will have no means of communication. This leads me to believe they must have some sort of plan were not privy to. Am I hoping in vain?

Monotreme – at 14:09

janetn – at 13:54

Government first concern is to preserve itself. If they have neglected to form a viable plan to keep the lights on they will doom themselves. Without electricity they cannot govern they will have no means of communication. This leads me to believe they must have some sort of plan were not privy to. Am I hoping in vain?

Sorry, but I think you are. A serious plan to protect powerplant workers and their families nationwide would be impossible to hide. And in any case, why hide such a plan? It would make people like Jumping Jack Flash alot more comfortable, and the rest of us as well.

I have slowly become convinced that the main problem is the CDC. Although, they make speeches about preparedness to cover themselves, just in case, the private messages they are giving to the States is “Don’t worry, it’s not going to happen and will be very mild if it does”. I suspect they are giving the same message to the Department of Energy.

Some County Health Departments don’t believe the CDC and are making their own, very serious plans. Unfortunately, they cannot control the Grid. Unless the CDC changes the message they are giving to the DOE, we are truly screwed.

Monotreme – at 14:16

Jumping Jack Flash – at 11:38

Back during the cold war utilities were stocked up with food and water to sit for quite a while. (6 months??) Control centers were built with 30 inch reinforced concrete and lead doors. That mind set has disappeared.

Who do we need to lobby to bring it back? Seems like Homeland Security should be on this.

As for technical feasability of fail safe cutoffs. I suppose it could be done. No idea of cost.

Would most powerplants have people who know how to do this? Some cities are proactive. They might have a contingency plan to install these cutoff devices if the cost was not prohibitive and they had the technical expertise to install them.

Jumping Jack Flash – at 11:45

I agree with your list for rationing power. I think most hospitals will not be operational during a pandemic.

Jumping Jack Flash – at 14:20

Janetn. I think most utilities are using the NERC pandemic plan as template for their individual plans. It can be viewed here:

ftp://www.nerc.com/pub/sys/all_updl/cip/Influenza%20Pandemic%20Reference%20Guide.pdf

I won’t try and sway you. You evaluate for yourself.

It basically talks about “social distancing”, PPE, lysol at the desks, questionarres at the doors to determine exposure risk. And eventually one of the steps is to consider sequestering workers.

I’m talking about QUARANTINE damnit. QUARANTINE at the first sign of eruption. If it is just a SARS type episode so what. No harm done by calling a quarantine. We can’t wait for everything to get infected / exposed and then “consider sequestering”. WTF?? Sorry… I might be swaying you.

Pixie – at 14:22

Monotreme - at 14:09: “I have slowly become convinced that the main problem is the CDC.”

When Julie Gerberding’s participation in my state’s panemic conference was cancelled and she was replaced with another speaker, the people at State practically did cartwheels. It was felt her message would not be stark enough. I think some of the states are very aware that the CDC is acting as an apologist for a “don’t worry” mindset that at least my state had the sense to distrust. That being the case, I am not sure where they can go for truly accurate and timely information, as that is supposed to be the role of the CDC.

Jumping Jack Flash – at 14:36

mono.

A good analogy for understanding the power grid is to envision a group of mountain climbers on the side of a cliff who are all tethered together. I one slips hopefully the rest can hold him. If two slip chances are they all go down.

Also. There are relays installed throughtout the system that will drop large chunks of load if the power system frequency or voltage drops below a specified point. Kind of a last ditch effort. Like amputating a gangreen foot to save the body.

These relays let us down during the 08/14/06 blackout. As mentioned, one small problem area between Cleveland and Akron took down everything all the way to NYC.

It would be very difficult to design auto protection for every possible contingency.

Again, the “I,pencil” story plays a big role here.

Medical Maven – at 14:39

Regarding taking direction from the CDC-Forgive me, but if all of the rest of the health care system can not do their own research and thinking as we are, then we collectively will get what we deserve.

And the same goes for all of the “essential services”, the GRID included.

Have we become a nation of sheep!! You know what happens to sheep. That’s right, they get slaughtered.

lugon – at 15:59

a world of sheep - distracted by tv, so maybe a brown-out would do us some good :-/

Prepping Gal – at 16:43

With the collapse of the Soviet Union they must have experienced cold and infrastructure issues to the point of collapse. How did they manage?

Cuba was funded by the Soviet Union until 1989 and then had to rework the system to become self-sufficient and not rely on aid, fuel or equipment from a third country. Now they have the advantage of a much warmer climate. Yes I know the level of poverty is high but their civilization has continued. What can we learn from them? CBC in Canada had a two-part documentary about their successes but now I’d like to know how we can extrapolate solutions to our problems. It can be done.

I know everyone ignored my previous comments as mostly kidding about become nomads but sometimes the answers aren’t always obvious. We need to stand outside the box and reach back in to pull out ideas.

Irene – at 17:00

Here’s an interesting site which has information and maps on the various U.S. Power Grids:

[[ http://www.usdieselengines.com/US%20Power%20Grid.htm | U.S. Power Grid ]]

Brock – at 17:22

A couple of months ago the North Dakota Public Service Commission held a public meeting with all the utilities within the state concerning major disasters. Oddly, bird flu was never mentioned. I attended by phone. Mostly it was a love-fest between the PSC and the producers.

Near the end of the meeting the floor was openned to speak/ask questions. I asked the utility representitives if they had made preparations for bird flu and/or if they were speaking to their employees about stock-piling food & etc. NOT ONE, THAT’S ZERO, of the companies have made any specific plans for bird fku nor are they speaking to their employees about what’s coming.

North Dakota EXPORTS 60% ot the electricity produced here. So, if and when we go off-line a lot of people in other states are going to be affected. And it gets pretty cold here in North Dakota during the winter (heck, sometimes even during the summer) and no juice means no heat. At 30 or 40 below zero, I wonder how many will survive?

pfwag – at 21:00

New Orleans was a disaster waiting to happen and despite the fact that the city is sinking they rebuilt the dikes instead of moving the city to higher and not sinking ground. JIT inventory and maximizing profits instead of investing in the grid infrastucture has made it a disaster waitng to happen. PBF or terrorism will be the trigger.

Monotreme – at 21:30

Jumping Jack Flash – at 14:36

A good analogy for understanding the power grid is to envision a group of mountain climbers on the side of a cliff who are all tethered together. If one slips hopefully the rest can hold him. If two slip chances are they all go down.

If I’m climbing with several drunks, I don’t want to be tethered to them. If one starts to fall, I’d cut the cord. Can one of the Regional Reliablility Councils cut their connections to the others? I don’t fancy being dependent on NPCC.

[I got the fancy nomenclature from Irene’s link].

Monotreme – at 21:39

Pixie – at 14:22

When Julie Gerberding’s participation in my state’s panemic conference was cancelled and she was replaced with another speaker, the people at State practically did cartwheels. It was felt her message would not be stark enough.

Thanks for providing confirmation for my impression. Because I don’t want to hijack my own thread, I’ll put the rest of my comments on this subject on the US States 2 thread.

09 October 2006

Bump – at 11:47
LauraBat 19:45

Seems like we just keep going round and around on this critical issue. With no power for extended periods of time, especially in the winter, we’re in deep sh** with no waders. With schools, malls, etc. being closed this would lessen the strain on the system to a certain extent (obviously home usage would go up but that’s much lower than when things are “normal”). But I worry about 1) supplies: plants need something to fuel them. What happens when that runs out? Or equipment breaks? 2) man power: so many out sick or refusing to come to work it will take ages to get things running - it already takes long enough under ideal conditions 3) natural disasters: get an ice storm here in CT, the lines go down, no one to repair them and everyone is freezing. 4) the system is strained already. It only takes a small fault to bring it all crashing down.

Sigh - I need more RWFK

Anon_451 – at 20:12

LauraB – at 19:45 Having spent the weekend at the river sucking down RWFK from a 5 gallon cooler through a plastic (food grade)tube. I was finally able to read this thread. Everything you have said is what I was thinking about. Grid goes down all business with generators will fire them up (Water Treatment Plants, Hospitals, TV, radio stations fire houses, police stations etc) with in 5 days they will start running out of fuel. No fuel can be delivered because the trucks that need to deliver the fuel can not get fuel. Generators start to die. So I would expect the water to go off 5 days after the lights. Then it gets bad, with in 3 days people will start dying. 7 days later those that have followed the Governments recommendation for stock piling food and water for 2 weeks will realize that they did not stock enough. With in 21 days after the water goes off the only ones left will be those that have stocked enough or know how to get/make drinking water, that would be about 5% of the population.

The Grid MUST stay up.

janetn – at 20:24

Jack read the plan. Were screwed. The northern states will become depopulated not by the flu but by people freezing to death it will only take a few days after the power goes if its in the winter. Thats it in a nutshell. Its a shame so many will die from such sortsightedness. Its criminal.

Anon_451 – at 20:32

janetn – at 20:24 But if it happens, who will be left to bring to trail?? And you can not try someone for a future crime that may never happen.

Goju – at 20:38

How many will perish by home fires caused by candles and the burning of anything for heat?

Forget the fire dept coming to put out your home fire.

Medical Maven – at 21:06

And then the firestorms.

I just can’t believe that there is not a plan somewhere on this planet for countering a High CFR panflu. Face it, if we can figure it out, even the nabobs of bureaucracy can. It is sad. Little inconsequential me, if I were given executive powers I would have the grid and all of the utilities hardened in six months. And we would have a fighting chance. It is a sick state of affairs.

Average Concerned Mom – at 21:07

Argg, no good, people, no good!

Solutions, we need solutions.

Positivity!

(-:

(I want some of what anon_451 is drinking though. And a spot by the river.)

Medical Maven – at 21:25

The problem is national in scope, whatever nation you are in. National solutions are required, if the Grid is to stay up. All of the tweaking at any local level will only somewhat mitigate the overall disaster (or maybe not at all).

So here in the U. S. you have to persuade the President and Congress. In the UK, the Prime Minister and Parliament. And so on, for all of the other affected nations.

The hardening of the Grid and utilities would have to proceed at breakneck speed because we don’t know how much time we have.

But look how long it took with a true groudswell of discontent to get an immigration law with teeth passed in the U.S.

We are the groundswell, we here at fluwiki, a tiny, tiny, minority. We are not the David to slay this Goliath. We have to pray to God that somebody in the upper reaches of National political power sees the light on this (such as we have) and starts pushing with the zeal of a convert.

KimTat 22:02

Well I just wrote Senator Chuck Grassley and invited him here. Do I expect an answer, not really but even though hope is not a plan, hope springs eternal. He is on a committee regarding energy I believe, a very long optimistic long shot. But I like action. and even though he is not of my party, I like him.

Monotreme – at 22:15

As I’ve said before, I think the root of the problem is the CDC. As long as they tell the politicians that a .2% CFR is the worst case scenario, and even that is unlikely, there is no reason for any politician to stick his neck out and spend the necessary money to harden the Grid or do any of the other things that need to be done. Granted, the Grid should be hardened panflu or no panflu, but how many voters are complaining about this? It’s just not a sexy issue. Until disaster strikes.

The best we can do, IMO, is to discredit the CDC’s rosy assumptions and emphasize that we, the voters, think hardening the Grid is a very important issue.

We when we go to panflu conferences, we need to emphasize the fragility of the Grid and the consequences of it going down.

Anon_451 – at 22:23

Monotreme – at 22:15 You are so right. Voters do not care as long as the lights stay on. Once the Lights go out it is too late.

Average Concerned Mom – at 21:07 What Medical Maven – at 21:25 and Monotreme said is the ONLY solution.

It takes leadership on an issue that no one cares about and the CDC is selling us all down the river. They in fact have become worse than the WHO. They are the criminals that will kill millions.

Anon_451 – at 22:46

Anon_451 – at 22:23 It takes leadership on an issue that no one cares about and the CDC is selling us all down the river. They in fact have become worse than the WHO. They are the criminals that will kill millions.

Had a splash of RWFK and realized that the above statement is not true.

The Power Companies are the ones that have a duty and obligation to their stock holders to insure that the service they provide is not interrupted so as to insure their profits. The CEO’s of the power companies are the ones who are responsible to insure that the Grid is Hardened and stays up. Failure in their fiduciary duties is reason to remove them from their positions and bar them from ever holding a similar position in a publicly traded company.

Perhaps our target should be the Stock Exchange and Power Company Stock holders.

LMWatBullRunat 22:59

Read the Iron Law. Regardless of what they say, TPTB are interested in their survival.

Watch what they DO, not what they say. You can tell a politician is lying because his lips are moving. Ditto most Bcrats.

LMWatBullRunat 23:01

Further comment-

If there is a very severe pandemic, the grid will not stay up.

Period.

Cope with that, don’t spend your energy fulminating over what “ought to be done”. Sauve qui peut!

Anon_451 – at 23:03

LMWatBullRun – at 22:59 Had to much RWFK please explain what you mean in this regards. I understand the Iron Law and yes the Government is going to do everything it can to save it’s back side. But the power companies need to supply power to get paid.

Ange D – at 23:12

Has anyone thought about making a list of all the power companies in the United States and contacting the CEO of each company and asking what preparations they have made in the event of a pandemic? The companies who are stock holder owned and small co-ops must answer to the owners and often the general public. What about the chair of the board of directors for each power company?

Could someone make up a short list of questions, with input (shorter and simpler is better) and send a well-written email to each company to get a status report from each? I think this would be better to get actual input and avoid wild speculations.

Monotreme – at 23:19

LMWatBullRun – at 23:01 Further comment-If there is a very severe pandemic, the grid will not stay up.Period.Cope with that, don’t spend your energy fulminating over what “ought to be done”.

I do expect a very severe pandemic. I think it’s the most likely probability. But I’m not ready to throw in the towel, yet. If I really thought there was no hope of keeping the Grid up, I’d buy myself a horse for riding and another one for plowing. I’m not quite there, yet ;-)

Monotreme – at 23:23

Ange D – at 23:12

We’ve gotten input from a number of Fluwikians in the power industry, and there are no indications that anyone is planning for a severe pandemic. It wouldn’t hurt to make the inquiries you suggest, but there are an awful lot of power plants. In this case, I do think the Feds are the only ones with enough clout to get all the power companies to prepare properly. And they almost all have to get it right or the whole thing goes down.

Np1 – at 23:34

20 years ago I did not expect the grid to stay up if there was big problems. So I spent my time going off grid. Educated myself, scrimpted and saved, bought land, panels, ect and learned how to be comfortable, yea , thrive, with solar electric.

I fully understand the implications of the grid going down for society. I set out years ago to take responsibility for myself and my family. This pandemic may not happen for 5 years. If so, think how far you could advance your self sufficienty in that time. How many people who visit this site will still be storing food 5 years from now if there is no pandemic? This is a wonderful community but I suspect that there are far too many “event preppers “ here.

Panflu could happen tommorrow or who knows. Get a subscription to Home Power Magazine. Learn how to can foods. Garden a little. It’s fun. Kelly

Np1 – at 23:35

Monotreme – at 23:23 Chance of that happening is between slim and none. Kelly

LMWatBullRunat 23:37

‘treme-

Start shopping for a horse. or buy diesel powered whatever.

DennisCat 23:43

I hate to admit it, but if the H2H H5n1 hits this winter with anything much over 2% death rate, I just don’t see any way the grid can stay up. There is not enough time for the system to change and there will not be enough workers to keep the disturbution lines up. If it happens in a year or two, then maybe -if you can get the political will. The problems will be in the distrubution more than in the generation. Think about it: would you crawl through underground tunnels in NYC to trace a power line while the dead and sick are on the streets above you or if the storm drains are full.

Turn off your water and power for a week and see what happens and if you are ready. Go ahead and get all the food you want at the store, just try the “no utility trial” and see what happens.

If you want something to trade with forget the chocolate and pasta- try charging batteries and filling water jugs.

Sorry, to paint a dark picture but I just don’t see how they can keep all the grid up. Some, yes, all no.

Ange D – at 23:48

Monotreme – at 23:23 re your response . . .the power companies, NOT the power plants should be contacted. The power companies run the power plants.

I’ve read the smattering of responses by individuals who say they are associated with power companies and the knowledge is sparse. I am talking about going to the CEO’s of these companies. Write an email. Get a response. If the response is not sufficient, then write to the state corporation commission of the state, send a copy of the response and then request an investigation as to why these issues are not being taken seriously.

If 50 people wrote to the power companies of their states, reported the results, and then asked for further actions,at least something would get done.

10 October 2006

Dude – at 01:09

I plan on the power going down. I plan on a cold winter. I plan on hauling water from a stream. I plan on making it drinkable. I have 4 cords of wood for my wood stove. I wish I could shelter the world, but I can’t. Do for your self in some way people. IF this hits us this winter, we are never going to be ready as a country. I count on my ability to survive in Alaska at −35f for two nights with no help from anyone…it is part of the military cold weather indoctrination. I did it. You can learn how. You can survive, just think it through. Make your priorities real. Think. Plan. Act. No government, local or national will be there. For this winter, the grid is a lost cause. If we see an event that percolates for a long time, then we can try to change some minds. It is not high on my priority list for the short term…long term it is the single most important element. You know, we have all built a glass house in this country. We all live in them right now. I went small, easy to heat with backup systems, 28 years ago. I once raised rabbits in my back yard for food. It is one good alternative for meat. I make a great rabbit stew. I don’t know if this will all happen. Why, I could not even for see my own birth, so what do I know. Grin.

LauraBat 06:09

Someone (forgot who) is on to something. The power companies don’t think it’s an issue becuase the gov’t doesn’t think it’s an issue. Convince the power companies it could be a lot worse than what the gov’t is telling them and we’re more than half way there. Problem is, power companies are also run by people. People just like all the other people we’ve all been trying to convince to prep ourselves individually. As said before, everyone wants to survive. Appeal to that inate desire to survive and have your family survive. All it takes is a few beleivers in a company and the whole thing could turn around. Granted, there may be shortages, etc., but at least they’d be better preppared physically and mentally. Think of how hard it would be to work at the power company and know that things are unravelling all around you because society is dependent on what you do?

If all of us contacted power companies in our area with this mesage we might get somewhere. Maybe we could pull something together like what InKy did but geared only at the power companies? It’s probably not that hard to find all the key addresses. The problem is getting names of specific people to send it to and not get it filtered by a secretary. Alos, any trade organizations, etc. that cover the industry, or better, unions?

Jumping Jack Flash – at 06:43

LauraB.

It’s not as though the power companies have never heard of the pandemic threat. Some of the power companies have their so called pandemic flu response plan posted on their web sites. It appears they all used the NERC plan as a template, and it appears NERC went to the “experts” at the CDC who told them it is not that big of a deal. From what I’ve seen they all seem to have the basic philosophy that if it gets bad enough they can quarantine the plants and control centers. It’s either that or they do realize the severity of the threat but are paralyzed to take action. All I know is I don’t see preps piled up at the facilities so I’m piling up my own.

Monotreme – at 07:36

Ange D – at 23:48

I agree with your approach. However, as with getting the H5N1 sequences released, a multi-pronged approach might be best. My suggestions:

Please use the [http://pandemicflu.gov/plan/pandplan.html|Pandemic Planning Assumptions site]] whenever asked why you think anyone, especially Power Plant companies, should plan for a severe pandemic. Especially, point out this section:

1.1.5. The number of hospitalizations and deaths will depend on the virulence of the pandemic virus. Estimates differ about 10-fold between more and less severe scenarios. Two scenarios are presented based on extrapolation of past pandemic experience (Table 1). Planning should include the more severe scenario.

Monotreme – at 07:41

I realize that in spite of our best efforts, the odds that the Grid will stay up across the country if a severe pandemic occurs this winter are slim. However, it seems as if it may be possible for some areas of the country to disconnect themselves from failing regions. Clearly, this has happened in the past. I wonder if some regions aren’t, quietly, already making plans for this eventuallity. This may make living in the right city the most important prep of all. It beats buying claymores and draft horses ;-)

Average Concerned Mom – at 07:50

There’s also this from the World Health Organization’s “Top Ten Things You Should Know about a Pandemic” regarding planning assumptions. I can’t remember who said it but they thought was the initial CDC recommendation to plan for a mild pandemic came from the WHO’s assumptions, which someone else said were chosen mostly because it was something that developing countried could reasonibly plan for, not because they were actually realistic.

http://www.who.int/csr/disease/influenza/pandemic10things/en/

“WHO has used a relatively conservative estimate – from 2 million to 7.4 million deaths – because it provides a useful and plausible planning target. This estimate is based on the comparatively mild 1957 pandemic. Estimates based on a more virulent virus, closer to the one seen in 1918, have been made and are much higher. However, the 1918 pandemic was considered exceptional.

crfullmoon – at 07:54

Would getting this pandemic info to local places that are “assuming” the grid will stay up help?

Power plants, (post offices?), police stations, (what’s with all the “p”s? “Prior planning prevents -poor performance??), pharmacies, CEO’s of major employers, highway departments with their traffic signals??

Oremus – at 11:17; “As houses become tombs, power consumption will drop” -only if they turn off their tv’s and other electrical usage right when they become ill, eh?

…”And when your hands get dirty

Nobody knows you at all

Don’t have a window to slip out of

Lights on, nobody home

Click click- see ya later

Beta beta- no time to rest

Pika pika- risky business”…

Mamabird – at 09:04

I suspect that some who are commenting on this thread are closely associated with, or have knowledge of, power firms that are deregulated. Those companies have quite a bit of flexibility as to how they run their businesses. However, most power firms, transmission companies, and electric distribution service providers are still very much regulated by either the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), and/or by their individual state regulatory commissions.

The National Association of Regulatory Commissions (NARUC) passed a resolution in October of last year to have each state regulatory commission prepare for a pandemic event. Such action would naturally motivate the utilities that they regulate to prepare as well. To my knowledge, very few regulatory commissions have begun serious planning to date. For example, six commissions in the middle of the US have done virtually no planning at all.

Since these commissions regulate both the price and service levels of the utilities, I would suspect that no company will spend inordinate amounts of money in pandemic preparation in the absence of regulatory support. That’s just the way the system works.

So, write the CEOs and express opinions, but you may also wish to write some of your state’s elected officials to see if they are on the ball with preparation as well. My feeling is that these things all go hand in hand, and the responsibility is not just in a single area or company.

JWB – at 09:37

I don’t see how it would be physically possible to prep a power plant, not alone hundreds. I see six main issues.

1) Fuel.

The plants that I’ve worked on use an enormous amount of fuel. To stockpile enough coal or natural gas for months to a year would be a fantasy. The E&C alone would take quite some time. Then the real estate that would be needed for fuel storage.

2) Safety.

If its natural gas then it would have to be LNG, (liquefied natural gas, extremely cold, extremely dangerous). It takes an act of God to build a LNG terminal. No one wants it in their back yard. It has the potential explosive force eclipsed only by a small nuclear weapon.

3) Maintenance.

Imagine you are in charge of keeping an old car that is prone to breaking down running for the next year. You have 1 month to buy all the spare parts, (and store them), that you think you may need. After that month no more parts will be available. Oh damn! You didn’t buy a spare water pump for the engine?

4) Cost.

No one will spend the enormous amount of money needed to do all of the above unless they and the financial institutions that support them are absolutely convinced it’s needed. (They would have to be Fluwikians).

5) Time.

It appears that Mr. H5N1 is about to become extremely prejudiced of the human species. It would take years to accomplish the above. We don’t have the time.

6) Personnel. The Human Factor.

If the CFR is high, and MSM shows footage 24/7 of people dying horrible deaths, no one will chance being infected. No one will go to work. Period.

JWB – at 10:03

I need to add a note regarding 3) Maintenance.

All plants have redundancy built in. The last power plant I worked on had 3 gas turbines and 1 steam. Two gas unit would also run. The third gas unit was a spare. The steam unit was driven by using the heat generated from the two running gas unit.

If a gas unit went down, the third one would be fired up. Now if a second gas unit goes down then the steam unit goes down also from lack of steam. So the plant at that point is only running at a third of normal capacity.

JWB – at 10:10

correction: Two gas ‘units’ would ‘always’ run.

Geez

Jumping Jack Flash – at 10:31

JWB.

I realize it’s a long shot to keep the grid energized, but I can’t see throwing in the towel just yet. I’m talking about rudimentary grid operation that would keep the grid energized serving critical infrastructure. I’m ?guessing? critical infrastructure would account for, at most, 5% of grid capacity.

I respectfully respond to your very valid concerns as follows:

1) fuel. The plants don’t have to run at 100% capacity. Power could be rationed to critical infrastructure loads. Nuclear power plants could go a year or more. Hydro “fuel” flows naturally to the plant. If the grid were kept energized gas *might* be able to make it’s way to the plant. If coal mines and railroads did a quarantine of sorts coal *might* be able to be delivered. Key word might. Shed load that can’t be served. Keep the grid energized for critical infrastructure. water, sewer, gas transportation, food production. Disney World, steel mills, car manufacturers, etc are out of luck. Think critical infrastructure.

2) Safety. Forget LNG.

3)Maintenance. If a plant breaks and can’t be fixed for lack of a part, abandon it. Utilize those workers at other plants. I would not even think of trying to obtain spare parts for power plants.

4) Cost. What is the continuation of civilization worth?

5) Time. How long would take to procure MRE’s, water, and cots for power plant operators and their families? The 1500 mile Alcan Highway was built in 8 months. Surely we can round up some food and water before a civilization busting H5N1 gets here. I do know the longer we sit around playing pocket pool, the less time we have. That’s the ONE thing about panflu that I’m absolutely certain of.

6) Personnel. Would you rather ride out a pandemic in your house with an unruly mob outside than a fenced in secure power plant?

Will this work? Maybe. Maybe not. Is it worth trying? I’m open for suggestions as to a better idea.

JWB – at 10:59

Jumping Jack Flash – at 10:31

Very good points. Looks like the beginning of a plan. Thanks. I needed a dash of hope today.

So basically I think that hydrocarbon fueled power plants are toast. The required infrastructure to support them is too complex and far reaching. (I, Pencil).

Nuclear, hydro, and wind is our target. I do not have experience with these. What materials and spare parts would be required to support them? (i.e. clorine for water treatment plants).

A map showing the locations of these with a shaded area that that incorporates local grids that they serve would be useful. It may show at at glance what areas of the country have a chance.

These are the areas where the all power personnel should be relocated with guaranteed safety for their families (military bases?) Field personnel moved high on the vaccanation list of course.

Still thinking……… 8-D

JWB – at 11:14

vaccanation? Geez.

Hey Mods, I mail you $20 if you could inkorporeight an auto spell check here! 8-D

NauticalManat 11:35

JWB - If you think hydrocarbon fueled power plants are toast, think we are toast also. The amount of power provided by hydro is not anywhere near enough to make a difference in a crisis, and given the lack of rainfall in parts of the west and nw the last few years don’t think we can rely on that.

Nukes provide a slowly decreasing percentage as the older plants close, no new ones have been built due to real and perceived problems with safety, spent fuel storage etc. There is talk of building new ones, possibly using newer technology such as pebble bed reactors, or other standardized safer designs, those are only on the drawing board and are probably at least ten years away given the slow review, approval times, opposition from many factions.

Renewable energy is an interesting possibility, solar is becoming much cheaper due to new materials and lower cost per watt, great if you have sufficient sunshine. Wind is growing, but opposition in many parts of the country, for example the Cape wind project here in Massachusetts. Bottom line is many of these alternate supplies pale compared to fossil fueled. They will probably be an ever increasing and important part of the energy mix, IN THE FUTURE.

After reading this thread am less optomistic that the grid will stay up when and if.. My only consolation is that when I finish my prepping will hopefully be able to at least provide us for heat and light for a month or two, enough so that if there is at least intermittent power, it will be enough to get us through the second wave or whichever wave of a Pandemic is the worst. Secondary or tertiary waves will probably be of less intensity and IMHO enable the grid to operate. Of course as has been discussed here, how do we get people to use minimum power? Power police handing out tickets if they see more than one light or tvs operating as they prowl neighborhoods!?

Great thread Monotreme, but as usual some of the answers are not to our liking..

NM makes note to buy even MORE batteries!

DennisCat 11:52

NauticalMan – at 11:35 how do we get people to use minimum power

I don’t know what your power company is like, but I am in a “remote mountain area” and our coop has installed “smart meters” that they can read, turn on and off and control at the main office. I checked with my coop and they can control the power use if they really wanted to. They can turn areas on and off. They can tell how much power people use from the office and turn things on and off to control use- if they needed to. Even the village water system is starting to replace meters with ones that can be read and controlled from the central office. I haven’t found any data, (any power company people out there), but I was assuming (big assumption) if here “in the sticks” we have such meters so that they don’t have to send out meter readers, then the big city folks would have them as well.

So I would think that the answer is just to monitor the power use and then turn it off if someone used more than X or ration the power by areas - say 2 hours a day - something like that.

I also checked, and my power is coming from another state from a coal unit about 500 miles away. That is a lot of lines to keep up.

Ange D – at 14:22

I did alot of thinking about these issues last night. Are we fluwikians just as responsible as the “do-nothings” in other sectors of preparation when we sit back and do not make our voices known? If you knew the appropriate sectors of control for the grid, and knew that if your voice was loud enough, that you might make one rudimentary change or save one person’s life, would you write that letter or make that phone call?

After all, we’re right on top of the news here folks. When Osterholm speaks, we analyze his every word to death. We’re amassing foods and medicine and can tell you exactly every person who has died (that we know of) and in what country and their age and such. Many of us spend a great deal of time hashing around what’s gonna happen and which door the starving hoards are going to bash in when they come to eat us all (I am being facetious about the starving hoards). We make massive lists of all of the animals who have been infected.

With all of this energy directed at a pandemic, I bet if it was directed towards the people that can actually do something about keeping the grid up, it might make a difference.

If you believe that this pandemic is going to happen. If you think it’s going to be severe. If you think there are going to be massive grid failures. If you think it’s hopeless.

DO SOMETHING.

lugon – at 15:37

Ange D please provide the direction. :-)

LMWatBullRunat 16:30

Angie D- It isn’t just the power plants, it’s the aging grid infrastructure itself. We need to keep all of the present lineman as well as all the present power plant workers, healthy and doing what they do now. There are simply too few people to keep the grid up with just ‘normal’ wear and tear.

Further, there is no perception of the nature of the threat posed by H5N1 as we here see it. Many people simply do not acknowledge the threat, for various reasons. We will only be able to prove that there is a pandemic threat when the pandemic starts and of course that will be too late. The situation is very similar to that in the US military before the attack on Pearl Harbor.

LMWatBullRunat 16:41

Bureaucrats see the present push to prepare for panflu as a larger threat to their existance than the flu itself. THat is why there is so much bureaucratic inertia.

Mamabird – at 16:58

DennisC – at 11:52

You should be very thankful for such a sophisticated metering system for your area. It is sometimes refered to in the industry as AMR (automated meter reading and control) or automated distribution system. It is state of the art and very expensive to both install and maintain. Some large utilities have elements of such automation, most do not. If customers were will willing to pay for it, and the regulators were willing to support it, such systems would logically be expanded across the US, but until the cost comes way down, not likely to happen. Even if everyone supported such a move, it would take many years to actually install.

Therefore, most utilities can not control who uses the power. It flows toward whatever load is on the system. By the by, no one in the US knows from where there power actually comes unless they have their own home generator, and even then you may be surprised. Power flows across the path of least resistance to serve the load on the grid, and those power flows can change each and every minute. There is not necessarily any relationship as to how the power is purchased and how it actually flows across the grid. Electrons do not read contracts.

NauticalManat 23:23

Received an answer back from the manager of my local municipal electric company who I asked the usual questions as to what preps are being made in case of Pandemic. Short answer was as follows:

“During the last year the (town municipal light dept.) has been in training meetings with other Department in the Town of ********* concerning the National Incident Command System, which coordinates Town Departments’ response to emergency situations. I believe the bird flu pandemic, IF (my caps)it effects us, would be handled under the NCIS protocol, which would include coordination with local, state and federal agencies.”

Somehow this does not comfort me given Homeland Securitys performance so far (see Katrina), also latest news that Sec. Chertoff cut the money to be used for security on subway, commuter rail even after incidents in Europe.. YOYO

11 October 2006

Monotreme – at 22:21

Excellent discussion, but the thread grows too long.

Continued here.

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