Continued from here.
Birdman – at 18:57
LMWatBullRun – at 18:39
My suspicion is that if the CIR is 30%, coupled with a mortality rate of the pandemic virus at 58%, or for that matter, 5.8% (one-tenth that of the present H5N1), society as we know it today will change radically, regardless if schools close or not. As far as I am aware from all the many visits with entities that I have had over the pandemic issue this last year, no one has plans to cover such a scenario. It is a non-starter, and simply brings planners to their knees.
Birdman:
I agree with your assessment, it’s just too hard for people to accept the dire circumstances and form a plan based on it. No one even mentions the incubation time which has ranged from 2–17 days. That’s a lot of spread time for any virus before it’s presence is even known. Scary really.
This is the place to start.
The incubation time seems to be shorter, 2 to 4 day’s the longer incubation time was when the WHO did not recognize the desease spreaded from human to human in small clusters.
Melanie:
That hit the spot. And, it felt familiar.
From a link someone posted I forgot to grab: World Bank? June 2006? If this is what people are getting told who don’t look into it themselves, no wonder:
“In the “Severe” scenario, these assumptions lead to an average attack rate of around 35% for the world as a whole, as well as a case fatality rate of around 3%, resulting in a 1% mortality rate, or about 70 million people, resulting in a 0.4% decline in world GDP.
Mortality rates are much higher in developing economies though, resulting in an economic loss twice as high in those economies than in developed economies. Finally, there are economic losses due to the enormous morbidity typically associated with influenza, leading to absenteeism, school closing, declining productivity and crowded hospital emergency rooms.
The short run costs of morbidity are expected to be more than twice as large as those for mortality, around 0.9% of GDP. Putting it all together, the World Bank study arrives at a total loss of 3.1% of world GDP in a severe scenario”…
(Which is less than what they said what the world GDP impact for 1918… For goodness’ sake; Severe would be current fatality rates, and, factor in No health care due to overwhelming numbers, and, collateral deaths including if grids, ect, fail.)
crfull - I think you are right. The gov’t and others keep tossing around these “worse case” numbers of 35% infection/approx 2% cfr. When you do the math, you calculate your own risks and say, “those odds aren’t so bad. I don’t need to prep. I’ll never get it. and if I do there are medicines/there will be a vacine.” Problem is, who is to say the cfr will drop? We DON’T KNOW CFR WILL DROP!!!! Even if it drops to 10% from teh current 5-%+ the impact would be devastating. The gov’t is saying “don’t say we didnt’ warn you,” but they really aren’t warning people about the true potential danger.
Why People Dont Get it?
It’s not their fault. The information needed for most people to “get it” is not available.
When? Where? How bad? Etc.
People don’t work well with a “maybe” or a “might”. Like: The pandemic “might” happen this flu season. “Maybe” it will happen next year.
And then we expect them to spend countless hours doing research and to spend money on preps based on a lot of unknowns. It takes a lot of commitment to get a Fluwiki Degree.
Did you ever expect to be taking courses like:
Flu Prep XXIII, Shelter in Place, Mass Fatality Management Plans 2, Water Preparations II, Cytokinic Dysregulation 6, Pandemic Scenario Analysis, What Will You Be Ingesting and When, Pigs in China the Hidden Mammalian Reservoir for H 5 N 1 Part 9, Solar and Generators and Alternate Power Part 10, etc, etc.
When we ask someone to “get it”, we are asking them to completely change their lives. With all of the unknowns, I understand why people have not focused on a future pandemic and why people have not allocated all of their spare time and energy into prepping.
It’s hard to explain why some are chosen to be the preppers and some are not. If you are a prepper then I feel your are special and are meant to be here.
We’re approaching the last possible point for plausible denial for those who don’t get it. News articles are everywhere. Info is online, in magazines, newspapers, radio, and even the boob tube. They have to be in single digit IQ points not to notice even the changes in the stores that we’ve all seen. Might or maybe contradictions will set normal people into thinking why a census isn’t agreed upon and look it up and form an opinion. The clueless are adults at work, some making critical decisions our lives are dependent on—surgeons, engineers, dentists, garbage collector, daycare providers etc. They have brains! If you’re wondering if my sensitiviy factor is down-it is. If nature is inclined to right the wrongs as some suppose—then global warming is no accident and hot zones will continue to take out large numbers of people. I suggest that those who won’t see, notice, or pay attention a storm on the horizon and prepare are doomed to get wet, have a tree dropped on their head etc. I do feel sorry for the children of these people, I also give leeway to those 18–29 because their youth might prevent the critical thinking capability of flu death—I for one might help a child but their parents YOYO. Perhaps this is another example of nature at work. Some people didn’t develop the neuron chatter on basic self preservation or survival. This makes more sense to me than supposing they can’t tell the difference between might and may be.
Ok, this might be a stretch,but..
My therory is that many people don`t get it because they have never been up against real hardship or loss in their entire life.
Life will go on as it always has, because they have no firsthand knowledge of things ever being different. So, time to buy more “toys”, trips, and SUVs, but food? Nah, food`s always there, and so is the man on the white horse, to save them. Or, Underdog. Whatever.
bump
I hope they “get it” I really hope they get it, and go prepare while there is still time.
Perhaps if the word gets out that “flu” and “wash your hands” is code for being able to say they warned the public about a
“Pandemic Influenza Year, with high (virus and collateral) fatality rate and no vaccine, and overwhelmed medical services and supply chains”
people will start to change their priorities as they hear all those new “What you need to know” about “flu” mainstream PSAs…
What stupid election year “issues” are being debated!… If the facts make it into any history books, those in the future will shake their heads.
My DW keeps telling me when we go someplace “Please don’t bring up the Pandemic unless someone asks” Sure enough, it is like a compulsion. Something comes up that reminds me of it and before I can control myself it bubbles up. Almost zero response even after all this time.
Recently as last week, went to the Pandemic Flu Awareness Week page and sent out the Press Release, connection to the chart on Current Confirmed Cases of Human H5N1, also the chart showing the age spread of those dying of it, and discussed how this was almost identical to 1918. Out of about 40 friends, neighbors, co-workers, relatives and so one, received two responses, from a friend whose grandmother died at 26 or so in 1918 from the influenza, other from a relative who still has not done one single thing that I know of to prep, even though he has children and grandchildren in the worst risk ages. Very disheartening to say the least. Talked last week to head of health department in my town, all she talked about was how that one month after the Pandemic hits how “they” will start developing a vaccine, did not want to listen when I told her how long it would take and how it would probably be close to a year and by that time the Pandemic would probably be over or have mutated into another variation.
Still waiting for a reply to my inquiry as to what the towns plans are, if any, for the electrical supply from our municipal company.
Overall, not a good response. I am encouraged by what others here are doing to spread the word, but don’t think it will make a big difference in the end. Keep on trying, as I will. If we save just a few each, and they can persuade a few, perhaps we will save a significant number, one can only hope. For all the reasons as to why that I have seen posted, probably some truth in them all, but bottom line is that I am frustrated and angry that people either can not or will not pay attention to all the experts, never mind me or any other well informed member of our wiki..
Is there a psych professsional around that has maybe looked into this? In my experience it goes far deeper than a lack of information or warnings or even available cash that could be dedicated to prepping. The example I keep thinking of is the folks in SoCal who after 30+ YEARS of warnings, info and ACTUAL exposures (milder quakes) to the named threat and still are able to look the other way.
I’m done caring about why people don’t get it.. I just wanna know now how do we make them get it!!! Or just get them to do something to prepare anyway, even if they don’t really get it.
naomi: make it easy, make it fun, make it trendy, make it economically sensible?
Nautical - you got a similar response to things I’ve given to many people as well. Disappointing? You bet. But I keep on trying. This round I contacted first selectman, board of ed supervisors and multiple local papers to try and get some PFAW coverage. Still nothing, but I’ll keep trying to the best of my ability. I’m happy that I’ve had a few converts (including the guy at the copy shop who was making my handout copies lol!). Better to save a few lives than none at all by not trying.
And MAV - I was one of those CA folk who never had an earthquaker kit or a bug-out-bag eventhough I barely got out of the Oakland Hills fire. DOn’t ask me why - I really can’t say. It has taken me time to get to where I am now - life experienes, Katrina, AF scare, etc. There wasn’t one “ah-ha” moment. It’s important to give people time and space to think it over. Be ready for when they have questions. Hopefully it won’t be too late for them to act.
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