Summary from Indonesia Outbreak as at 22 October 2006
| Cases Discussed | Jun-06 | Jul-06 | Aug-06 | Sep-06 | Oct-06 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Died, no tests | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| Died, tested positive | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| Other tested positive | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| Suspected symptoms | 4 | 2 | 46 | 38 | 26 | 116 |
| Tested negative | 0 | 6 | 26 | 19 | 7 | 58 |
| Totals | 10 | 14 | 81 | 64 | 40 | 209 |
(From WHO as at 16 Oct - latest update) Total human cases worldwide 256, deaths 151 (2006 – 109 with 73 deaths)
(If you want the links to open in a new window, hold down the shift key and then click on the link)
Indonesia
Thailand
(Inner) Mongolia
India
Israel
Kenya
Australia
New Zealand
United States of America
General
Link to news thread for 22 October (link News Reports for October 22 )
(Usual disclaimer about may not have captured everything. Feel free to add your own where omissions have occurred.)
Please note that I copy the links directly from the thread so if they don’t work you may need to re-visit the Thread.
I have started a new Thread called Volunteers Needed as Lookouts Worldwide so that we can commence gathering news etc from all the regions around the world just to keep a ‘better eye’ on things.
Can I suggest you go take a look. Cheers.
AnnieB at 00:21
The Unholy See… The Flu See…The Floosie? Sorry. Too late in the day.
Many cats - we need a floosie or two so we don’t get the whoopsie - doesn’t have to be late in the day to get it really bad!
(England) Whatever happened to bird flu?
Alok Jha Monday October 23, 2006 The Guardian (link http://tinyurl.com/yluweu)
It’s still around, infecting people in Asia and set to cause another bout of worry-inducing headlines in Europe this winter. There are several strains of avian influenza, but the one that had everyone reaching for their drug stockpiles earlier this year was H5N1. You’d be forgiven for thinking this strain had appeared out of the ether; but it has been around since 1996, when 18 poultry workers were infected in Hong Kong.
<snip>
But the terrifying pandemic never happened, and there are three reasons why. First, H5N1 hasn’t shown any signs of mutating so that it can transmit between humans. Second, we emerged from the flu season, at least in Europe. Third, birds are not migrating at the moment. “It has bubbled away all summer in Indonesia,” says Mike Skinner, a virologist at Imperial College London. “Their total mortality is the highest of all the countries.”
<snip> But there’s little doubt among experts that H5N1 will return this winter. “We’ll see more outbreaks - it’s almost inevitable,” says Skinner.
Vietnam prepares against potential bird flu outbreaks among human
Vietnam is actively preparing human forces, health equipment and medicines to combat potential bird flu outbreaks among people, the local newspaper Youth reported Monday.
The country has prepared 1 million tablets of anti-bird flu medicine Tamiflu, 1,000 respirators, 100 tons of disinfection chemical Chloramin B, and hundreds of thousands of gloves and masks.
Last week, Vietnam carried out a rehearsal on combating potential bird flu outbreaks among humans in the capital city of Hanoi.
The Vietnamese Health Ministry said on Monday that the country has seen no new human cases of bird flu infections since mid- November 2005. Vietnam has confirmed 93 cases, including 42 fatalities, in 32 cities and provinces since December 2003.
The NewsNow link just came up with the headline that Spain had an outbreak in birds - turned out the story was from July … BUT, there is an interactive link that graphically represents the spread of BF since 2003 - worth a look?
Here is the link http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12375868
Mongolian veterinary has symptoms of bird flu (link http://tinyurl.com/yegbvn)
A scientist, who conducted researched at Ulaanbaatar agricultural university veterinary clinic, has become infected with bird flu. On October 23, the Onoodor periodical informs that Mongolian emergency ministry refuses to release any additional information; however, as it became known to the press, the scientist became infected a week ago.
The researcher was hospitalized with high temperature. As National Infectious Disease Center director Mendbayar Altanhuu stressed, preliminary analysis confirmed that the man had the avian flu virus. Outcomes of the second analysis are unknown yet.
MONGOLIA
12:02 10/23/2006 / Regnum / http://tinyurl.com/yegbvn
‘Mongolian veterinary has symptoms of bird flu
A scientist, who conducted researched at Ulaanbaatar agricultural university veterinary clinic, has become infected with bird flu. On October 23, the Onoodor periodical informs that Mongolian emergency ministry refuses to release any additional information; however, as it became known to the press, the scientist became infected a week ago.
The researcher was hospitalized with high temperature. As National Infectious Disease Center director Mendbayar Altanhuu stressed, preliminary analysis confirmed that the man had the avian flu virus. Outcomes of the second analysis are unknown yet.
Indonesia Rules Out Bird Flu in Nine Suspected Human Cases
By Arijit Ghosh (Bloomberg)/ October 23, 2006 00:21 EDT / http://tinyurl.com/ylpaat
Indonesian local tests run on nine people suspected to have contracted avian influenza from the eastern island of Sulawesi, were negative for the virus.
The Ministry of Health, which conducted the initial tests, is waiting for the results from the U.S. Naval Medical Research Unit lab in Jakarta, Runizar Ruesin, head of the health ministry’s avian flu center, said in a mobile-phone text message today. Of the nine, one, an infant, died on Oct. 17 in South Sulawesi province suffering from flu-like symptoms. The rest are being treated in the provincial capital Makkasar. <snip>
Comment: Sounds like Malawi is not too far along in their planning and preparedness for either AI or pandemic flu.
MALAWI, Africa
by Juliet Chimwaga, 23 October 2006 - 09:25:57 / http://tinyurl.com/yamm8y
Bird flu risk grows
by Juliet Chimwaga, 23 October 2006 - 09:25:57
Chair of the National Technical Committee on Avian Flu Ben Chimera says Malawi is at high risk of bird flu because birds will be migrating into the country during the summer.
Chimera, who is also Ministry of Agriculture Deputy Director of Animal Health, said this over the weekend during a workshop in Salima on the pandemic. He said the expected movement would risk migration of infected birds into the country. Chimera said two months ago the disease hit southern Sudan, which is not far from Malawi. He said the disease spread fast in Sudan because of communication problems which made it difficult to alert people.
“That is why it is very important for the country to be conversant with the disease in advance lest we are caught unawares,” said Chimera.
He said the government plans to purchase Avian Influenza drugs before the country gets hit, adding that the World Bank has already pledged to fund the purchase.
During the two-day workshop, representatives from government, civil society, UN agencies and the media came up with a comprehensive communication strategy which intends to promote change of behaviour among Malawians to avoid disaster in case of an outbreak.
Minister of Information and Tourism, Patricia Kaliati, who officially opened the workshop, stressed the need for public awareness to assist prevention of the pandemic. “Apart from creating knowledge and awareness, we believe the campaign will assist in making Avian Influenza a topic for public debate and that would lead to supportive policies, legislation and resource allocation towards prevention in the country,” she said.
Speaking at the same function, Unicef representative in Malawi Aida Girma said: “There is need for a comprehensive preparedness plan for detection of the flu and also a palpable communication strategy that would help promote behaviour change so that people are empowered to prevent the flu.”
German Press Agency Published: Monday October 23, 2006
Taipei- “Taiwan on Monday ordered a halt to the use of a flu vaccine imported from France following reports that four Israeli people died after receiving the vaccine, officials said. “Before we have clear information over the safety on the use of the vaccine made by Sanofi-Aventis, we are halting the use of the vaccine effectively immediately,” said Chou Chih-hua, deputy director of the Centre for Disease Control (CDC).
He said no more shots of Sanofi-Aventis vaccine would be given, even though there have been no local reports of illness or fatality from some 300,000 people who have received the vaccine free since last month.
CDC has imported 1.13 million does of the flu vaccine in question this year. News reports said four people in the Israeli town of Kiryat Gat, aged from 56 to 72, died of heart problems in the past week. Health authorities in Israel are investigating if the vaccine has anything to do with their death, the reports said.
GENEVA, Oct 23 (KUNA) — “The World Health Organization (WHO) announced Monday the Global Pandemic Influenza Action Plan which was described by WHO senior official David Heymann as an emergency plan because world is not yet prepared for an Influenza pandemic.
Another WHO senior official Dr. Marie-Paule Kieny noted that the industry is moving towards the feasibility of producing a vaccine for H5N1, known as the Avian flu.
However, she added that the development of such a licensed vaccine will not take place before one year.
She stressed that the target of the Action Plan is to provide vaccines for the whole world population, however this is not an achievable target now, but the Plan must meet the vaccination at least 20 percent of the more than six billion people on earth, which means the need for 20 percent of 12 billion dozes.
Dr. Kieny noted that if the industry works 24 over 24, seven days a week, three shifts per day, 500 million dozes could be produced in the short term in addition to another 280 million dozes by 2009.
She added that currently the world is short of several billion doses of the amount of pandemic influenza vaccine needed to protect the global population and that in three to five years the world could be prepared with the adequate vaccines to save many lives in case of a pandemic.
Tha actual “Global Action Plan” referred to in Klatu’s story above is located here.
It is a 24-page pdf file.
NEWS
This began today:
[snip]
On the web here
re: Sanofi-Aventis vaccine - “CDC has imported 1.13 million does of the flu vaccine in question this year.”
I’ve already had my shot and no reaction, other than sore for a couple of days. My kiddos (2 & 5) are supposed to get their shots this afternoon and now I’m nervous about it. I’ve done a search, but have been unable to get any further information, and CDC’s web site says nothing.
“Next pandemic will break speed records, author says Updated Mon. Oct. 23 2006, CTV.ca News
“The next flu pandemic will wing its way through the world at break-neck speed, hitching a ride on unsuspecting air travellers, speeding through train tunnels, and racing through shorter distances on bicycles, according to the author of a new book.
“Every year, one billion people travel by plane and in so doing provide viral hitchhikers unprecedented opportunities,” Calgary-based journalist Andrew Nikiforuk told CTV.ca.
“In the 19th century, steam ships took a couple of months to spread trouble; now it can de done in less than 12 hours. The concentration of people in megacities also guarantees rapid dispersion,” said Nikiforuk.
He argues in his new book “Pandemonium” that our health is being threatened by biological invaders moving at unprecedented speed.”…
Pixie at 09:35
Comment:
Does anyone recall the Guillain-Barre like Outbreak in Namibia thread?
June 07, 2006 UNICEF report (snip) “Three of the 34 suspect cases of sudden paralysis are under investigation; 3 have been positively identified as polio. The majority of these cases involve people over 20 years of age, which is highly unusual. The poliovirus is more likely to cause paralysis in adults than in children, and also leads more often to death in older people.”
I bring this up because if you happen to recall, a number of journalist were in Namibia reporting on celebrity birth. Interestingly enough, Malawi, Africa has recently come to the spotlight resulting from a contraversial celebrity adoption.
IMO, I think Namibia would have been reported regardless. Maybe not as intensely. However, Malawi, Africa? Could it be that reporters/journalists go to these areas and while following their bread and butter stories they learn about the desperate conditions, meet local journalists, and then share those concerns with the international community?
If this theory holds water, I would like to see a celebrity marriage in Indonesia :)
Comment on WHO release about Global Vaccination Action Plan, pdf document
Klatu – at 10:18
Dennis in Colorado – at 10:24
pdf doc
- page 9: Action must start now – this fact cannot be emphasized strongly enough – action must start now if the world is to prepare itself in the shortest possible time for a potential influenza pandemic.
- page 12: Action must start immediately if the world is to be prepared in the shortest possible time for an influenza pandemic.
In the document, words: “now” (used three times) - “immediate” or “immediately” - used twice. Now considering that many WHO and other international organizations are not particularly given to repetition, or short sentences in the active mode, that their agenda is “anything but panic”, that the usual style is long winding sentences, use of the subjonctive and/or conditional tenses, calm and moderation, and that such “sharp” terms and expressions are reproduced too in the press release announcing this pdf, I’d say either they’ve got themselves a new “drafter” or that, at last, some staff is starting to add 2+2=4…
Note also, the meeting of the vaccination experts took place in early May 2006, this pdf doc is marked as issued in September 2006 (but I don’t recall anyone mentioning it before) and it’s now splashed on the WHO site (23 October 2006). So (a) it must have taken long and acid discussions to agree to the text of this pdf (May till September); and (b) no-one paid attention in September 2006 and they have to force it down TPTB’s throats using media in October…
And it is emphasized that collaboration should be “strengthened” - right left and centre. Now, who’s not beeen collaborating in the efforts to produce this vaccine I wonder?
Who’s scared? (pun intended)
FrenchieGirl – at 12:34.
Also, page 10 is interesting:
“This viral strain [H5N1] has been associated with a high case–fatality rate and is considered to pose an imminent pandemic threat.”
I see they took the “may pose” out from in front of “imminent” liek it used to show last spring.
O.K. Frenchiegirl & Banshee - my ppf just climbed to a 6, pushing 7. Thanks for your insight. You are both on the mark……
from 12:34: Now considering that many WHO and other international organizations are not particularly given to repetition, or short sentences in the active mode, that their agenda is “anything but panic”, that the usual style is long winding sentences, use of the subjonctive and/or conditional tenses, calm and moderation,……..
http://www.prleap.com/pr/52868/ I’m not sure about this article’s credibility as I do not recognize the source but, it is interesting. Researcher Lawrence Broxmeyer onThe Hush-Hush Epidemic of 2006 - Med-America Research News Released: October 23, 2006 (PRLEAP.COM) A couple of weeks ago, internist/researcher Lawrence Broxmeyer relates, the BBC ran a piece which talked about a poorly publicized partnership between the International Red Cross and WHO designed to control and treat drug-resistant strains of a deadly infection which at this moment threatens Eastern Europe and Central Asia. To this point Bird Flu has never really has materialized, but this current epidemic had and as far as well-published researcher Lawrence Broxmeyer is concerned, they just might be from one and the same cause. What is this disease, which in Europe and Asia alone presently causes 450,000 identifiable cases annually, 70,000 from new strains? Is it a “virus” regarding which Bird Flu mavens and virologists are constantly talking about mutations and changing strains? No, to be certain, it is tuberculosis. The Red Cross, said Lawrence Broxmeyer, has already proclaimed that today we face the most serious situation regarding TB since World War II, and urged European leaders to do more, to “wake up“. And although The World Health Organization has already detected “hot zones” with the highest incidence along the borders of the European Union (EU), WHO has also found significant levels of multi-drug-resistant tuberculosis throughout the Baltic, eastern Europe and central Asia. Authorities at WHO see this as a real emergency, said Lawrence Broxmeyer, whose study “Bird Flu, H5N1 and The Pandemic of 1918: The Case For Avian Tuberculosis” had just been featured at the time the BBC news broke…A large part of the recent bird-flu hysteria was and still is fostered by a distrust among the lay and scientific community regarding the actual state of our knowledge regarding the bird flu or H5N1 and the killer “Influenza” Pandemic of 1918 that it is compared to. “And this distrust”, relates physician Lawrence Broxmeyer, “is not completely unfounded.” Traditionally, “flu” does not kill. Experts, including Peter Palese of the Mount School of Medicine in Manhattan remind us that even in 1992, millions in China already had antibodies to H5N1 meaning that they had contracted it and that their immune system had little trouble fending it off. Dr. Andrew Noymer and Michel Garenne, UC Berkeley demographers, reported in 2000 convincing statistics showing that undetected tuberculosis may have been the real killer in the 1918 flu epidemic. Aware of recent attempts to isolate the “Influenza virus” on human cadavers and their specimens, Lawrence Broxmeyer said that Noymer and Garenne had summed that: “Frustratingly, these findings have not answered the question why the 1918 virus was so virulent, nor do they offer an explanation for the unusual age profile of deaths.” Bird Flu as well as victims of the Pandemic, emphasized investigator Lawrence Broxmeyer, would certainly be diagnosed in the hospital today as Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS). Roger, and others favor suspecting tuberculosis in all cases of acute respiratory failure of unknown origin. By 1918 on the other hand, relates Lawrence Broxmeyer, it could be said, in so far as tuberculosis was concerned, that the world was a supersaturated sponge ready to ignite and that among its most vulnerable parts was the very Midwest where the 1918 unknown pandemic began. It is theorized that the lethal pig epidemic that began in Kansas just prior to the first human outbreaks was a disease of avian and human tuberculosis genetically combined through mycobacteriophage interchange, with the pig, susceptible to both, as its unwilling living culture medium. “What are the implications of mistaking a virus such as Influenza A for what mycobacterial disease is actually causing?” asked Lawrence Broxmeyer. They would be disastrous, with useless treatment and preventative stockpiles The obvious need for further investigation is presently imminent and pressing..
Tally Prepper at 13:28: Regarding the article, when I clicked on this link it didn’t have anything? Don’t know.
“Lawrence Broxmeyer’s editorial, published, this month at the express request of the Editor-In-Chief of the respected medical journal in which it appeared, can be viewed along with his other research at http://medamericaresearch.org”
panflu.gov 10/17/2006
“Interim Guidance on Planning for Use of Surgical Masks and Respirators in Health Care Settings during an Influenza Pandemic” http://tinyurl.com/yn9lhp
This document synthesizes traditional infection control and industrial hygiene approaches to enhancing protection of health care personnel during an influenza pandemic. It emphasizes that surgical mask and respirator use are components of a system of infection control practices to prevent the spread of infection between infected and non-infected persons. It also reflects concerns that additional precautions are advisable during a pandemic—beyond what is typically recommended during a seasonal influenza outbreak—in view of the lack of pre-existing immunity to a pandemic influenza strain, and the potential for the occurrence of severe disease and a high case-fatality rate. Extra precautions might be especially prudent during the initial stages of a pandemic, when viral transmission and virulence characteristics are uncertain, and medical countermeasures, such as vaccine and antivirals, may not be available.
The prioritization of respirator use during a pandemic remains unchanged: N-95 (or higher) respirators should be worn during medical activities that have a high likelihood of generating infectious respiratory aerosols, for which respirators (not surgical masks) offer the most appropriate protection for health care personnel. Use of N-95 respirators is also prudent for health care personnel during other direct patient care activities (e.g., examination, bathing, feeding) and for support staff who may have direct contact with pandemic influenza patients. If N-95 or other types of respirators are not available, surgical masks provide benefit against large-droplet exposure and should be worn for all health care activities involving patients with confirmed or suspected pandemic influenza. Measures should be employed to minimize the number of personnel required to come in contact with suspected or confirmed pandemic influenza patients.
This document, Interim Guidance on Planning for the Use of Surgical Masks and Respirators in Health Care Settings during an Influenza Pandemic, augments and supersedes recommendations provided in Part 2 of the HHS Pandemic Influenza Plan (www.hhs.gov/pandemicflu/plan/#part2). This interim guidance document will be updated and amended as new information about the epidemiologic characteristics of the pandemic influenza virus becomes available.
Guidance documents on planning for surgical mask and respirator use in non-health care occupations and for the general community setting during an influenza pandemic are in preparation. Infection control recommendations related to seasonal influenza (www.cdc.gov/flu/professionals/infectioncontrol/) and avian influenza A (H5N1) (www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/professional/infect-control.htm) remain unchanged. The use of surgical masks by hospitalized patients and other symptomatic persons (“source control”) is covered in the CDC’s Interim Guidance for the Use of Masks to Control Influenza Transmission (www.cdc.gov/flu/professionals/infectioncontrol/maskguidance.htm).
And, in the meantime, Nabarro is optimistic.
UN Says worldwide cooperation may have thwarted bird flu spread.
New York - Close and non-contentious cooperation between governments and the private sector may have prevented a spread of the deadly bird flu worldwide, but the threat of a pandemic remains, a UN official said Monday.
David Nabarro, the senior UN coordinator for anti-avian and human influenza activities, said the political and scientific responses to the deadly influenza virus has been strong and well coordinated between the public and private sectors.
‘I have seen these groups working in an incredibly concerted and committed way,’ Nabarro told a news conference at UN headquarters. ‘There is no sense of people working against each other, there is a sense of people working in one direction.’
Nabarro, who travelled the world meeting with governments and groups fighting the influenza virus H5N1, said even Myanmar and North Korea, two of the world’s most closed governments, have had ‘very well organized responses’ against bird flu.
More than 220 cases of bird flu had been detected worldwide and dozens of deaths have been reported from the disease that is usually contracted by humans who have had contact with infected poultry.
Nabarro said a critical time in determining whether the world has brought the spread of H5N1 virus under control will be end of 2006 and beginning of 2007.
He said the threat of migratory birds transmitting H5N1 would come during the northern winter when birds migrate north to south, from Siberia to the Black Sea and to the Middle East and Africa.
‘This migration does not necessarily create a pandemic,’ Nabarro said, calling on governments and the private sector involved in the monitoring the spread of bird flu to remain vigilant.
He said in a note of optimism that North America had escaped the bird flu epidemic because of the ‘very intense monitoring’ system in the US and Canada of birds migrating from Siberia to Alaska and beyond in the Western Hemisphere.
© 2006 dpa - Deutsche Presse-Agentur
FrenchieGirl – at 12:34
The Plan requires governments to commit to a large investment – in the range of perhaps 3–10 billion US dollars.
How long will it take for the money to flow? I don’t anticipate getting a vaccine until the third wave, if at all.
This is my first attempt with tiny url…keeping my fingers crossed.
H5N1 Infection of Veterinarian in Mongolia Recombinomics Commentary October 22, 2006
A scientist, who conducted researched at Ulaanbaatar agricultural university veterinary clinic, has become infected with bird flu. On October 23, the Onoodor periodical informs that Mongolian emergency ministry refuses to release any additional information; however, as it became known to the press, the scientist became infected a week ago.
The researcher was hospitalized with high temperature. As National Infectious Disease Center director Mendbayar Altanhuu stressed, preliminary analysis confirmed that the man had the avian flu virus.
Escaped bird flu, but pandemic flu still not safe until after winter 2006–2007 as I read this.
COMMENT
Sorry, ya’ll, but this quote from above story makes no sense what-so-ever:
“He said in a note of optimism that North America had escaped the bird flu epidemic because of the ‘very intense monitoring’ system in the US and Canada of birds migrating from Siberia to Alaska and beyond in the Western Hemisphere.”
So…we aren’t getting bird flu in North America because we’re watching out for it? Maybe we’re killing all the birds flying in with AI? Since when did Nabarro start speaking nonsense? This has me worried because it was meant to be a positive note.
Yeah,annon, that one had me puzzled,too. Did someone have a nice quiet talk with a those migrating birds or what ?
Somehow this doesn`t really “sound” like Nabarro.
I, for one, as I don`t work for Tyson or KFC am not worried about bird flu.
Pandemic flu, now that`s another story.
cactus – at 15:36 am not worried about bird flu.
interesting comment- there where a millions of people that died from the Spainish flu that were not Spanish.
Angola: Bird Flu Preventive Measures Defended
Angola Press Agency (Luanda) October 21, 2006 Posted to the web October 23, 2006
Luanda (link http://tinyurl.com/ybkaz4)
The director of the Veterinary Services Institute, Filipe Vissesse, manifested this Saturday here, the need to create conditions to prevent bird flu in the country.
Filipe Vissesse defended this wish during a lecture on “The national plan of contingency and emergency against bird flu”, organised by the Angolan Veterinary Physicians Order, in celebration of the institutions second anniversary.
“Health and veterinary physicians, poultry-breeders, farmers and the population must communicate urgently, any case of deaths caused from bird flu, either in domestic or savage birds” he said.
According to the health official, although this plague has not hit the country yet, the authorities must be prepared to fight this sickness.
Here is David Nabarro from the UN News Centre - sounds more like the statements of ‘our man’!
Global vigilance is needed to counter bird flu, Indonesia causes concern: UN coordinator
David Nabarro (link http://tinyurl.com/yaybds)
23 October 2006 – While the deadly bird flu virus has not spread as widely as feared in Africa, vigilance is still needed across the world to counter its advance and deal with its impact on humans, the United Nations coordinator for the disease said today, expressing in particular “very great concern” over Indonesia, where practically the whole country has been affected.
“The situation with regard to avian influenza in the world is that in 2006 we did see more than 30 countries reporting outbreaks. The disease didn’t spread quite so profoundly in Africa as we had expected it might… but still the amount of viral outbreaks in 2006 were many greater than any previous year,” Dr. David Nabarro, the Senior UN System Coordinator for Avian and Human Influenza told reporters in New York.
“Unfortunately the virus continues to affect humans: there are 256 people known to be affected, 151 dying and the rate of human death is still distressingly high, with Indonesia increasingly becoming the country which causes all of us… very great concern.”
<snip>
However experts fear that the H5N1 virus could mutate, gaining the ability to pass from person to person and in a worst case scenario unleashing a deadly human pandemic. Dr. Nabarro warned that it will remain a “major animal health issue” for years.
“We think it’s going to stay that way for five years perhaps 10 years to come because the virus is highly pathogenic yet at the same time can seem to survive in certain communities of birds without symptoms… and secondly it does seem to be spread by a combination of wild birds and trade.”
<snip>
“Indonesia has the virus probably in 30 out of 33 provinces… now Indonesia has had to move fast to completely redesign its animal health services… the Government certainly is committed together with the UN to making this happen but… still there’s such a lot to be done.”
Stressing the need for continuous vigilance, Dr. Nabarro also highlighted the importance of being better prepared for any human outbreaks worldwide and noted in particular a call by the WHO today for more action and funding to prepare for this and other pandemic influenzas.
“We’ve seen big efforts by the World Health Organization (WHO) working with Governments to make sure that we’ve got a containment system in place and WHO today releasing its Global Action Plan for vaccine development, so that if a pandemic does appear we’ve got a better supply of vaccines in place to deal with this,” he said.
The new plan, based on advice from more than 120 immunization and other experts, warns that the world is far short of the amount of vaccine needed to counter an outbreak of pandemic influenza should it break out and it urges immediate action to remedy this.
<snip>
libbyalex @ 14:19
More than anything else, this sounds like amateurish reporting that is likely only a partial representation (and therefore a misrepresentation) of what Nabarro probably actually said. I suspect, if Nabarro reads it today, he’ll be ready to punch a wall. No doubt he did report and affirm positive, cooperative efforts and their effects (one does this before laying what remains to be done), but the reporter seems to gloss over the fact that “the threat of a pandemic remains,” and to have bugged out before Nabarro made the plea for further international support for Indonesia. The last sentence of the piece just bespeaks a writer who doesn’t know enough of what’s going on to get it right and infers a cause-effect relationship where there is none.
BF may not have hit direct but it does have side-effects ..
(England ) Bird flu creates a parrot influx (link http://tinyurl.com/yn2gca)
A Lincolnshire bird sanctuary is urgently appealing for cash donations after taking in a large number of parrots due to fears of bird flu. The National Parrot Sanctuary in Friskney said hundreds of the birds had been handed in since the first bird flu scare outside the UK a year ago.
Now the sanctuary is struggling to meet the cost of caring for the birds. The centre owner, Steve Nicholls, said the number of parrots handed in was due to a higher awareness of the problem.
“When we look back at the birds that have come in this year, it’s quite frightening,” he said.
“It’s an astronomical amount of money that our charity is going to have to find to cater for these birds now.
“People are more bird-aware, as long as they don’t panic then there should be no problems.”
Comment AnnieB – at 15:51 Now, that sounds like Nabarro ! And, InKy – at 15:56 , LOL about the “punch a wall”
Comment - Commonground – at 12:58 - O.K. Frenchiegirl & Banshee - my ppf just climbed to a 6, pushing 7. Heeyyyy, cooool girl! We’re not there yet! I passed along the WHO building coming back from work this evening, and there were no more lights on than usual at 7 pm (the cleaning ladies do need to see the dust!). The day the whole building is ablaze with light, the car park still full at that hour and later, then that’ll be NEWS, and I’ll be the first to report it!
Oremus – at 15:23 - If they don’t have a few billions to give to nourish poor countries, I fail to see where they’ll find the money for BF. Likewise, I don’t count on a vaccine, and if there was, I’m not even sure I’d take BF vaccine without all proper clinical trials for it.
Back to news.
NEWS - FRANCE - Meeting in Paris concerning the Israeli deaths after vaccination - Boursier.com reproducing a Reuters news - http://tinyurl.com/y74ceq
France has convoked its main sanitary experts to evaluate, as a matter of urgency, the risk to human health with the flu vaccine, which is produced by the French lab Sanofi-Aventis. … Paris has also requested Brussels to be in touch with the European Medicines Agency. … Meanwhile, the Government is going ahead with the vaccination campaign. … The Ministry declared that “there is nothing to show that the Israeli deaths had a link with the vaccine” … and that “those who link the vaccine and the deaths are making a very hypothetical link” …
Comment% Phewww what do you expect them to say! It reminds me of the post of another here (was it you, Tom DVM, or Monotreme?) “…there is no evidence that…” i.e. the moment you see this little sentence, one should know the reverse is probably exactly true. To think I’m due for my flu jab soon (forced by my employer I may say, not of my own volition…). Will try to delay the date for it, until further news can actually say “…there is compelling evidence that W,X,Y,Z died of… - not from the flu jab”
NEWS - FRANCE - The Cecab Group has filed its Volaven subsidiary for bankruptcy - http://tinyurl.com/yyvdzw
This firm specialty is cutting up turkeys. It has (will have had) 384 employees. Since the avian flu crisis, as reported in the media, it has kept losing money. It also blames cheap imports from Brazil and other third countries for its downfall.
libbyalex – at 14:49 And, in the meantime, Nabarro is optimistic.
That’s not optimism. That’s diplomacy. That’s using a carrot instead of a stick.
I agree with everyone else that the comment at the end of the Nabarro article was weird. I think the reporter mangled what he said.
Also, I agree completely that I’m not worried about “bird flu.” Took a survey that someone had linked to on another thread that asked about “bird flu” fears. I completed the survey and e-mailed the lab that’s doing the research telling them that those who are tracking H5N1 aren’t afraid of bird flu. They are afraid of pandemic flu. I’m sure the language in the survey was written in the colloquial for a specific reason, but I don’t think they are capturing the pulse they want/should be.
Comment - AnnieB – at 16:09 - BF may not have hit direct but it does have side-effects … (Lincolnshire, England) Bird flu creates a parrot influx … hundreds of the birds had been handed in … The climate is so mild there that they could easily let them fend for themselves in nature South of the Thames and they would survive - as did the 8 parrots populating (and reproducing) in my son’s nearby park in London (UK). At least those would not be migrant bird flu carriers (till they catch it from a Scottish Swan)!
Study identifies different species of North American birds that could transmit bird flu
Disease/Infection News Published: Monday, 23-Oct-2006 (link http://tinyurl.com/yet7gt)
University of Georgia researchers have found that the common wood duck and laughing gull are very susceptible to highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza viruses and have the potential to transmit them. Their finding, published in the November issue of the journal Emerging Infectious Diseases, demonstrates that different species of North American birds would respond very differently if infected with these viruses. David Stallknecht, associate professor in the department of population health at the UGA College of Veterinary Medicine and co-author of the study, said knowing which species are likely to be affected by highly pathogenic H5N1 viruses is a vital component of efforts to quickly detect the disease should it arrive in North America.
“If you’re looking for highly pathogenic H5N1 in wild birds, it would really pay to investigate any wood duck deaths because they seem to be highly susceptible, as are laughing gulls,” said Stallknecht, a member of the UGA Biomedical and Health Sciences Institute. “It was also very interesting that in some species that you normally think of as influenza reservoirs - the mallard, for instance - the duration and extent of viral shedding is relatively low. This may be good news since it suggests that highly pathogenic H5N1 may have a difficult time surviving in North American wild birds even if it did arrive here.”
Working under controlled conditions in an airtight biosecurity lab at the USDA Agricultural Research Service’s Southeast Poultry Research Laboratory, the researchers determined how much of the virus was shed in the feces and through the respiratory system of several species of wild birds. The work was jointly funded by the United States Poultry and Egg Association, the Morris Animal Foundation and the USDA.
“We chose birds that, because of their behavior or habitat utilization, are most likely to transmit the virus or bring the virus here to North America,” said lead author and doctoral student Dr. Justin Brown.
The species studied were: Mallards, which are often infected with commonly circulating, low-pathogenic avian influenza viruses in North America and Eurasia; Northern pintails and blue-winged teal, which migrate long distances between continents; redheads, a diving species; and wood ducks, which breed in Northern and Southern areas of the United States. The laughing gull is a common coastal species ranging from the Southern Atlantic to the Gulf Coast.
Stallknecht explained that in low-pathogenic avian influenza, most of the virus is shed in the feces of birds. The virus then spreads as other birds drink from contaminated water. The study found that in highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza, however, the birds shed most of the virus through their respiratory tract.
Stallknecht said that with this knowledge, scientists can more effectively detect the virus in live birds by swabbing the birds’ mouths and throats.
“Doing avian influenza surveillance is pretty tricky because there are a lot of species differences and there are also seasonal differences,” he said. “So you’ve got to pick the right species at the right time and you’ve got to collect the right samples.”
In a related study scheduled to be published in December issue of the journal Avian Diseases, the researchers have quantified how long the virus persists in water samples. They found that highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza viruses don’t persist as long as common low-pathogenicity strains. In some cases, persistence times were reduced by more than 70%. This could affect transmission and supports the idea that these viruses may not have much of chance of becoming established in North America.
Stallknecht said the finding is encouraging, but cautions that it’s difficult to put it into context without results from a study his team is currently working on that will assess the minimum amount of virus it takes to infect a bird.
<snip>
NEWS - CAMEROON Towards an overproduction of (table) eggs - http://tinyurl.com/y7y8vg
After the avian scare, production of eggs (for egg-laying hens) is slowly starting up again in the West of the country. Other areas are not so lucky.
More interesting than the eggs story is this paragraph which shows that a farmer, at the beginning of the bird flu scare, hastened to sell his egg-laying hens for food before they got culled… On another farm of his area, over 35 000 egg-laying hens were sold at the market in these conditions - in order to avoid the cull.
Another side effect on agricultural avicole intrants: Belgocam was selling 300 tons of poultry feedingstuffs some time ago, but now barely sells 200 tons - and though the breeders order the feed, they don’t pay cash for it anymore.
Edna Mode and InKy- I think you’re probably right about the earlier Nabarro article. It sounded weird to me too!
New Michigan bird flu cases not dangerous H5N1 strain
“The U.S. Department of Agriculture and Department of the Interior today announced a detection of H5 and N1 avian influenza subtypes in a wild Green-winged teal sample from Tuscola County, Michigan, that was killed by hunters.
Initial tests confirm that this wild bird sample does not contain the highly pathogenic H5N1 strain that has spread through birds in Asia, Europe and Africa. However, initial test results do indicate the presence of low-pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) virus, which poses no threat to human health”
(USA) New Michigan bird flu cases not dangerous H5N1 strain
10/23/2006, 3:47 PM CDT (link http://tinyurl.com/y84hyy)
The U.S. Department of Agriculture and Department of the Interior today announced a detection of H5 and N1 avian influenza subtypes in a wild Green-winged teal sample from Tuscola County, Michigan, that was killed by hunters.
Initial tests confirm that this wild bird sample does not contain the highly pathogenic H5N1 strain that has spread through birds in Asia, Europe and Africa. However, initial test results do indicate the presence of low-pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) virus, which poses no threat to human health.
Fifty-one bird samples were collected on Oct. 15 through a partnership between USDA and the Michigan Department of Natural Resources as part of an expanded wild bird monitoring program. USDA and DOI are working collaboratively with states to sample wild birds throughout the United States for the presence of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). [more …]
snip~
Nabarro said a critical time in determining whether the world has brought the spread of H5N1 virus under control will be end of 2006 and beginning of 2007.
COMMENT: So what did he really mean? I look forward to clarification
snip from Tally prepper’s post: “Dr. Andrew Noymer and Michel Garenne, UC Berkeley demographers, reported in 2000 convincing statistics showing that undetected tuberculosis may have been the real killer in the 1918 flu epidemic.”
bacillus (Tuberculosis is caused by a bacillus) Any of the rod-shaped, gram-positive bacteria (see gram stain) that make up the genus Bacillus, widely found in soil and water. The term is sometimes applied to all rodlike bacteria. Bacilli frequently occur in chains and can form spores under unfavourable environmental conditions. Resistant to heat, chemicals, and sunlight, these spores may remain capable of growing and developing for long periods of time. One type sometimes causes spoilage in canned foods. Another, widespread bacillus contaminates laboratory cultures and is often found on human skin. Most strains do not cause disease in humans, infecting them only incidentally in their role as soil organisms; a notable exception is B. anthracis, which causes anthrax. Some bacilli produce antibiotics.
virus picture shows a spherical object A virus (Latin, poison) is a microscopic particle that can infect the cells of a biological organism. At the most basic level, viruses consist of genetic material contained within a protective protein shell called a capsid; the existence of both genetic material and protein distinguishes them from other virus-like particles such as prions and viroids.
Bodies of 1918 flu victims have recently been dug up and samples of the virus removed. I would guess they were looked at under a microscope. Rods and spheres are not alike. Am I being too simplistic?
moeb - perhaps he is referrng to previous ‘patterns’ where incidience in humans has been most prevalent in the months Dec thru Mar. See the WHO graphs to illustrate this - link http://tinyurl.com/zf7yf
Bird flu-hit Indonesia to ban city backyard poultry
Reuters / 20 Oct 2006 11:26:28 GMT / http://tinyurl.com/yjv4sd
<snip> Agriculture Minister Anton Apriyantono said a set of legal guidelines was being worked out. “We need law enforcement. We have issued ministerial edicts regulating that poultry in urban areas need to be in cages,” he told reporters.
However, Indonesia’s chief welfare minister Abrizal Bakrie said there were no indications this would happen soon. “There is no indication leading to a pandemic. There has been no mutation and the spread is still from poultry to humans,” he said after ministers met to discuss bird flu developments.
U.N. bird flu coordinator David Nabarro said in Bangkok on Friday that people must not assume a pandemic would start in a particular country.
“In fact, the influenza pandemic could start anywhere because (of) the capability of moving across borders, carried perhaps by migrating birds or through trade,” Nabarro told a press conference.
“However, there are certain countries in this region where the level of H5N1 avian influenza is high,” Nabarro said.
Hiroyuki Konuma, deputy regional representative for the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) said he was particularly concerned about Indonesia.”The virus is widely spread at the moment,” he told the same news conference.
H5N1 has spread to most of Indonesia, one of the world’s most complex countries spread across 17,000 islands and with myriad ethnic groups and languages. (Additional reporting by Vissuta Pothong in Bangkok)
COMMENTARY MUSING
yes of course but was he really saying “there is a prevalent feeling amongst officials that know, that we may have H5N1 under control, ergo there will be no pandemic”
Maybe not the right place, but I subscribe to the Nutrition Action Health Letter put out by the Center for Science in the Public Interest. It is solid, science-based advice on food and nutrition and its current monthly cover story is on Vitamin D. The bottom line seems to be that adults should get at least 1000 IU a day of Vitamin D3 and that could easily move up to 2000 IU a day unless one is prone to kidney stones. They say that bone density, muscles, gums, cancer, the immune system, osteoarthritis and possibly even diabetes all benefit from adequate Vitamin D intake. (For cancer, arthritis and diabetes, it lessens them, to be clear.) The 400 IU standard is said to be too low - just enough to prevent rickets, not help with other things. It is unclear how much it would help with panflu, but it seems a cheap and low risk step to improve the odds.
U.N. warns world on bird flu
Tue Oct 24, 2006 12:41 AM BST / By Irwin Arieff Reuters / http://tinyurl.com/ygex4t
UNITED NATIONS - <snip>
A little over a year ago, new to the job, Nabarro told reporters at U.N. headquarters he feared bird flu could end up killing as many as 150 million people if the world failed to adequately prepare for an expected mutation of the virus, enabling it to easily spread among people.
Nabarro did not think the crisis had been overblown.
“When we are saying there is a risk of something bad happening,” he said, “if that bad thing doesn’t happen in the immediate future after we have said that there is a risk, people are prone to say, ‘Well perhaps you’ve exaggerated.’”
“I can understand that. However, there will be an influenza pandemic one day. I don’t know — you don’t know — when it is going to be. When it does come along, it will have really major economic and social consequences,” he said.
The H5N1 bird flu virus is “extremely vicious” and now affecting poultry around the world except for the Western Hemisphere, he said. It kills birds “incredibly rapidly,” can infect humans and could mutate to a form that could cause a human pandemic, he said.
“There are probables in there. There are certainties in there. But the one absolute requirement on the basis of this is, we have to get prepared for the pandemic.”
Israel
Flu Vaccines To Continue In Israel After Health Ministry Gives Green Light
After deciding that the four deaths were not linked to flu shots, the Health Ministry in Israel has decided to resume vaccinations. Health Minister, Yaacov Ben-Yizri, announced that vaccinations will resume this evening.
Yaacov Ben-Yizri said the Ministry had held consultations with all the expert teams nationwide, and they completely ruled out any association between the four deaths and the flu shots.
Virginia, USA
Is VA Ready for Possible Flu Pandemic?
Is Virginia ready for a possible flu pandemic? Over the next two days, the state is conducting a statewide exercise, based on the worst pandemic in American history.
A massive statewide drill is underway because state health officials say it’s not a question of if a flu pandemic will hit, it’s just a question of when.
In a clinic set-up to handle large numbers of flu inoculations, on Monday, Richmond’s first responders are receiving shots. Richmond Health Department George Jones says, “They’re our first line of defense, ones that have to be out in the public.”
Colorado, USA
CU-Boulder Ramps Up To Handle Pandemic, Common Flu Outbreak
Departments across the University of Colorado at Boulder have been gearing up since last spring for the possibility of a pandemic flu outbreak in the event the H5N1, or avian influenza virus, makes its way to the United States and begins spreading from person-to-person.
Sylvia Dane, emergency management coordinator for the Boulder campus, drafted the CU-Boulder Pandemic Response Plan with the help of staff, faculty and students over the summer, outlining how CU-Boulder would handle an avian or pandemic flu outbreak. The plan was finalized in June and will be revised as conditions warrant.
[snip]
The Boulder campus Pandemic Response Plan and the Pandemic Communications Plan have resulted in a slate of communication methods for educating students, faculty and staff. In addition to other communication efforts, a Web site has been created to increase understanding of pandemic flu and offer ways to prevent and prepare for flu. Three primary themes of the site are “understand, prevent and prepare.” For more information on the site go to: www.colorado.edu/safety/pandemicflu/index.html.
Wallet cards with the web link have been created to distribute on campus in addition to a slide show, stickers and brochures.
Travel precautions also are particularly important for faculty, some of whom travel frequently in the course of their work. Students and staff are encouraged to be aware of conditions abroad before they take a trip. Tips for safe travel are posted at: www.colorado.edu/safety/pandemicflu/prevent/.
[snip]
Pandemic flu scenarios for the campus include the possible departure of most of CU-Boulder’s on-site residential student population. However, if certain geographic areas are quarantined, it’s possible that underclassmen who live in CU-Boulder’s 22 residence halls would not be able to leave campus.
“In addition to planning for the likelihood that many students would leave campus during a pandemic, we also need to prepare for the likelihood that county and state authorities will restrict travel to control the spread of an avian or other flu,” Dane said. “That means we need to plan for disruptions and for a campus with some students in residence halls but far fewer faculty and staff on site.”
[snip]
For more information on CU-Boulder’s pandemic and common flu plans see: www.colorado.edu/safety/pandemicflu/prepare/, www.colorado.edu/healthcenter/, www.colorado.edu/healthcenter/downloads/avianflu.pdf.
To request a copy of the CU-Boulder Pandemic Response Plan, send an e-mail message to sylvia.dane@colorado.edu.
Contact: Sylvia Dane, (303) 492- 5162 Jeannine Malmsbury, (303) 492–3115
Two things I overhead in my new job (some of you know where I’m working, most don’t):
“We aren’t going to push for the use of masks and gloves because we don’t feel they will be effective in any way.”
and
“There is no way we’re going to ask the public schools in this state to close if there is a pandemic.”
These two comments, from seperate sources, scared the hell out of me!!!
New York, USA
Local Pandemic Flu Preparation to be Disvussed at Nov. 2 Community Roundtable
A family doctor, hospital infection control specialist, county public health officer and local college representative will discuss “Pandemic Flu: Are We Prepared” during an extended community roundtable on Thursday, Nov. 2, at SUNY Cortland.
The roundtable takes place between 8–9:30 a.m., lasting one-half hour longer than usual, in the College’s Park Center Hall of Fame Room. Sponsored by the President’s Office and the College’s Center for Educational Exchange, the event is free and open to the public. Refreshments will be served at 7:45 a.m. The Park Center is located off Tompkins Street and parking is available in the Park Center lot.
Jacqueline Gailor, director of public health for Cortland County, will moderate the discussion. The panelists are: Raymond Franco, interim vice president of institutional advancement at SUNY Cortland; Pamela Griffith, supervising public health nurse for Cortland County’s Public Health Department; Douglas Rahner, M.D., medical director of the Family Health Network; and Maria Whitaker, infection control officer for the Cortland Regional Medical Center.
[snip]
“We need to mobilize the community to realize that everybody is going to play a part in dealing with a pandemic flu,” Gailor said. At the roundtable, Griffith will discuss what the community will probably face and what individuals can do to prepare for an outbreak. The Health Department officials hope the public may be able to provide information of use in preparing for an epidemic.
“The Family Health Network is very involved in developing an all-hazards approach to emergency preparedness,” Dr. Raynor said. Based in the MacNeil Building at 17 Main St., the network, serving 17,000 patients, can reach urban and rural patients from its many medical and dental office and school sites scattered across the region. Its medical offices are located in Cortland, Marathon, Cincinnatus, Moravia and DeRuyter.
“Because of our unique role and placement in the community, we are in a position to very quickly gear up to serve not only our patients but others as needed in the event of a flu pandemic,” Raynor said.
A college can offer facilities, technology and faculty expertise on dealing with an epidemic on one hand, but on the other brings a large population of at-risk students to the situation.
Canada
Next pandemic will break speed records, author says
The next flu pandemic will wing its way through the world at break-neck speed, hitching a ride on unsuspecting air travellers, speeding through train tunnels, and racing through shorter distances on bicycles, according to the author of a new book.
“Every year, one billion people travel by plane and in so doing provide viral hitchhikers unprecedented opportunities,” Calgary-based journalist Andrew Nikiforuk told CTV.ca.
[snip]
The impact of a severe pandemic will be ominous, he warns, describing scenes that seem to be straight out of horror movies.
“Within a week of the invasion, people will have trouble buying food and medical supplies. The cemeteries will overfill and local meatpackers will store the dead in refrigerated trucks. Rumours that cats and dogs may spread the invader will prompt urban animal massacres,” Nikiforuk writes in his book.
“Entire police precincts, fearful of hauling away the dead and weary of nailing red influenza signs on doors at the homes of the infected, will report sick and not answer calls.”
Canadians would be prudent to heed warnings before it’s much too late, said Nikiforuk, who added that disaster plans rarely work according to plan.
Bronco Bill – at 21:37
Yikes! Your city sounds like a good candidate for the triage thread ;-)
Monotreme – at 21:44 --- City my patootie!! These statements were made by STATE officials!!
Bronco Bill – at 21:53
Double Yikes! I haven’t gotten to the “V’s” yet for the state plans, but it doesn’t look good for Virginia. Have you considered getting a cabin in West Virginia?
Monotreme – at 21:57 --- Have you considered getting a cabin in West Virginia?
Heh!! I’ve been thinking ‘bout moving in with Hillbilly Bill!! I’m pretty certain he won’t mind…just me, DW, and three quiet kitties! ;-)
BTW—just sent you an email.
Bronco Bill – at 21:37 Same comments I got from my employer. If it scared the heck out of you the comments petrified me. I went on a buying binge that will take me a year to recover from, but I am ready.
Anon_451: Can you relate whether your employer is a governmental or commercial enterprise? If governmental, can you tell us if it is a local, state or federal agency? If commercial, can you tell us if it is a utility, JIT supplier, hospital or an institution otherwise likely to impact a large number of people or to have access to any sort of priviledged information? Thanks.
I am about to start creating the News Summary for today then I will start a new thread.
Please hold off on your posting for about 30 minutes or so. Cheers and thanks.
Commonground, What’s up with your browser. Your link http://medamericaresearch.org worked for me and led me to the editorial “Bird flu, influenza and 1918: The case for mutant Avian tuberculosis”. It worked for me. So did what was in it.