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A Severe Pandemic is Likely, Part 8
In reviewing the US State Plans, I have come to the conclusion that there are many, including public health officials, who are apparently unaware of the facts pertaining to the risk of a severe pandemic. Since planning is heavily dependent on the assumptions made, it’s important that decision-makers, which includes the general public, understand why a severe pandemic is likely.
Definitions
I am defining a severe pandemic as a case fatality rate of at least 2%. I use the term very severe to mean a case fatality rate of at least 5%. I am only referring to virus, not to effect of the pandemic on society. I believe it is possible for society to survive a very severe pandemic, if adequate planning is done.
Although we don’t know what the kill rate of a pandemic strain of H5N1 will be, there is no reason to think that it will be less than the 1918 pandemic strain and many reasons to think that it will be worse, much worse. Historical arguments are non-scientific and ignore basic virology. Risk assessments of the likely severity of an H5N1 pandemic should be based on the very substantial data that has been collected on this virus and not based on what has happened in previous pandemics with different viruses.
Given the available facts, failing to prepare for a severe pandemic is irresponsible and likely to result in the deaths of hundreds of millions of people.
Additional References
Evolution and adaptation of H5N1 influenza virus in avian and human hosts in Indonesia and Vietnam
The viral polymerase mediates adaptation of an avian influenza virus to a mammalian host
Structure and receptor specificity of the hemagglutinin from an H5N1 influenza virus
The likelihood of an H5N1 influenza pandemic seems high, and the consequences could be catastrophic. Recent findings suggest that the 1918 “Spanish flu” pandemic may have resulted from a similar interspecies transmission event in which a purely avian virus adapted directly to human-to-human transmission without prior reassortment.
From:
Authors:
H. Chen, G. J. D. Smith, K. S. Li, J. Wang, X. H. Fan, J. M. Rayner, D. Vijaykrishna, J. X. Zhang, L. J. Zhang, C. T. Guo, C. L. Cheung, K. M. Xu, L. Duan, K. Huang, K. Qin, Y. H. C. Leung, W. L. Wu,H. R. Lu, Y. Chen, N. S. Xia, T. S. P. Naipospos, K. Y. Yuen, S. S. Hassan, S. Bahri, T. D. Nguyen, R. G. Webster, J. S. M. Peiris, and Y. Guan
Published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
From the news thread:
Cats can carry bird flu, study says
A study conducted by the Indonesian Environment Information Center (PILI) in Yogyakarta found that stray cats had caught the H5N1 virus through contact with infected poultry at traditional markets.
“We are positive that cats can have the virus, although it is yet to be proven that they can transmit the virus to other animals or humans,” PILI director Iwan Setiawan said Thursday after a discussion on the role of migratory birds in the spreading the virus.
[snip]
Studies of migratory birds in Malaysia, China and Australia that have been carried out over the past six years have shown no migrant birds in the three regions had the H5N1 virus, he said.
[snip]
PILI began last year the country’s first study of the possible role of migratory birds in the spread of bird flu. The study, which is taking place in Yogyakarta and Indramayu in West Java, is still in progress. The group plans to extend the study to several other coastal regions in Java, where about 2 million birds from northern Indonesia usually come for mating season.
Comment
I think migratory birds have been infected and have spread H5N1 to some regions, but I’m not at all sure that this is how H5N1 got to Indonesia. This supposition has been accepted with much too little data.
FloridaGirl,
Great work.
Everyone who looks closely at the WHO reports, comes away frustrated with how they report cases. The often don’t follow-up on many important outbreaks. They often never provide the data that they promise too, eg. Turkey cluster and seroprevalence data.
(I thought we knew a long, long, time ago that cats got H5N1?)
crfullmoon – at 09:27
We did. The question is how many cats are infected in Indonesia. The news story above seems to suggest it may be a significant number.
Tigers in Thailand zoo- 2003?
At what point do we start calling it Mammal Flu instead of Bird Flu? Seems like H5N1 has infected a lot of mammals.
I haven’t followed all the mammal discoveries. Are pigs/dogs/cats getting ill or are they asymptomatic? I seem to recall that the Thailand tigers died, but what about others? Could you imagine if household cats in the West started getting it? Even if it couldn’t be passed from cat-to-human, you’d see shelters fill up instantly with abandoned pets. It’s one thing to eliminate chikens, but pets?
Re cats etc - my current thinking (completely unscientific I admit!!) is that ALL mammals can carry H5N1 - no need to look at pigs, cats, monkeys, bats, mice or fleas - I think EVERY SINGLE mammal can carry it, (symptomatically and asymptomatically) reassort it, recombine it etc and pass it on!!! That is a nightmare thought isnt it??!!
ACM, only some hundred or thousand mammals, but millions of birds have H5N1. gharris, I assume monotremes don’t get it. And fleas are not mammals ;-)
I didnt say fleas were mammals, I said there was no need to waste time looking at them as vectors!! Yes even monotremes - and even our own beloved Monotreme, could certainly be carriers!!
I thought rumors that managed to come from China a year or two ago translated as a “birds and beasts flu”.
Check the Main Wiki list Animals shown to be infected with H5N1 Species reported include insect, bird and many mammal species - some of which I think can not get “normal”, seasonal, influenza.
LauraB, that already happened in spots in Europe/UK. People need clear info, so they don’t take panic actions. In Indonesia, people have pet birds the way we have pet dogs and cats; that is part of the culling difficulty.
They should have titled this “H5N1 in mammals”, but… http://www.fao.org/AG/AGAINFO/SUBJECTS/en/health/diseases-cards/avian_cats.html FAO March 2006, Special Report
Worth printing out, background, recommendations, ect; give to vets, pet owners, and local media.
Here’s a partial list of the mammals that have been infected by H5N1.
Monotremea aren’t on the list, yet.
We’ve covered lots of ground, haven’t we? Part of the “why be scared” is at the top of this thread. We might be able to summarise what we’ve learnt about SIP, commodities, masks, risk communication (working at ground level) and probably some other things. A one page summary for each, with links. So many many others will learn in time.
This is a bit of an off-topic here, but it’s important. Create a thread for “summaries”, or what?
If there’s a tiny possibility of something terrible happening it makes sense to defend against it. That’s why we wear seat-belts. Using this logic, it makes sense to prepare for SIP largely independent of the probability of an H5N1 pandemic outbreak. Right now though, I think the risk is still low: H5N1 is endemic in Indo, across species, and human cases are cropping up all over the place. Despite this, the number of new human cases remains low. Viral infections spread exponentially, and as long as the coefficient of the exponent>1, the rate of new cases takes off very steeply once the inflection point is reached. With the number of cases we’ve seen, the fact that the case rate hasn’t taken off means that R0 is either very close to, or less than 1. In other words, because we haven’t seen this take-off, I conclude that the virus, in all its variants is still very inefficient in infecting humans. We’re still waiting for the virus to mutate to a more transmissible form, and I don’t think anybody has a clear idea about how to assign probabilities to that eventuality, or even to measure the virus’ progress to that terrible end. So while we have a good understanding of the repercussions of a pandemic’s arrival, I think it is important to stress that we’re not there yet. The canaries in the coal mine are the health-care workers. When they start getting sick, it’s on.
ducksoup - yes, but we don’t want to know it’s here when it’s here - that will be easy. What we’re trying to do is to assess the risk (well) before it happens, which is really a different business. That’s why we look at factors and not so much at the number of cases per se. We’re not only looking at the movement of the foot of the boy who kicks the ball, but also at his eyes. We’re sort of trying to read the virus’ mind. Or at least Nature’s mind.
I believe she’s spoken loud enough, so we want to make sure we’ve heard well, and we want to make that audible to others.
Some of us even recognise ourselves in the suricata’s face.
lugon – at 12:11
I think that’s a good idea. However, some preps are more important than others. And there are some we can’t control, directly. To me, the most urgent issue is keeping the GRID up. If the GRID fails, then, for most of us, the other preps we make won’t help much. Maybe it’s time to start another thread on this issue.
ducksoup – at 12:29
I agree about the HCWs being the clear-cut sign that the pandemic has started. However, as I’m sure you know, if we wait until then to prepare, it’s too late. I’m not sure what kind of preps need to be done to keep the GRID up, but I’m thinking it might take at least a year of hard work to build in the protections for essential workers, redundancy and the ability to cut off failing regions.
Monotreme - at 13:17 “maybe it’s time to start another thread on this issue”.
Sir, gimme me a minute, Sir!
lugon rushes off to start a thread called Forum.KeepingTheGridUp … only to find out Monotreme has just created it with the very same title. Great minds, or what?
I am expecting the grid and water to be down much of the times if there is more than a 10% casualty rate. Some cities may keep the grid up for some of the times, but out where I am it goes down for days at a time already (especially the winter). Cities will have an advantage over remote areas as far as the grid and water goes. There will just not be enough healthy workers to check 10 miles of line for a single home like mine and I doubt that I would be able to call in an outage (cells don’t work in the mountains here).
The point is that all the nice baking recipes need to include how to bake without power, and all the TP preps need a way to flush the toilet. For me the water and the power are very high up on my required preps. Being sure I have enough water for drinking, cooking and flushing is my #1, heat is second, food/medicine a distant third.
lugon – at 13:42
Yes, indeed.
DennisC – at 13:43
We can and should prepare for local outages. If the Grid goes down for more than a few days, I’m not sure any amount of preps will be able to handle the consequences.
I work in the electricity industry and in risk management, particularly BF at the moment. We are preparing for a low CFR event and plan for keeping power on. We can control the power and its distribution and prevent one plant tripping another. In a high CFR event anywhere near what it is now, no power. This is because with insufficient oil industry workers there won’t be enough diesel, then coal will run out. Power plant operators and technicians being absent will eventually mean faults accumulate and generations stops.
Call of the Wild – at 22:40
Why are you planning for a low CFR? Is this because you have been told this is the worst case scenario or because it’s impossible to plan for a high CFR?
I haven’t really been planning with the idea that the grid will be up. I’ve opted for crank and solar flashlights, solar chargers, a solar oven and a Volcano Stove (would have opted for a Cobb Cooking System if I’d known about it earlier - only six chunks of charcoal to cook for 3 hours), a Coleman ProCat heater, a propane supply, and warm sleeping bags. I’m wishing I could afford a small wood stove. We’ll see if H5N1 grants me time to swing that. I don’t think that we can count on either the grid or readily available fuel of any sort once a pandemic starts. I’m eyeing the dead trees at the back of my lot and wondering how good I’ll be with an ax.
InKy @ 23:02
Check your local papers. Many people decide as winter approaches to get rid of their wood stove in favor of something easier like gas. Wood stoves are the dickens to move and often people will advertize their woodstove for free giveaway, IF you come and get it.
One of my friends had one that was being stored in their barn for a friend. The friend said that they regretted buying it on a whim because they decided they wanted gas. So . . .my friend asked if I was still looking for one to use in the greenhouse, and I said “indeed!”
So, now we have to lay a brick platform to put it on and then it’s homemade pizza for the “Bad Back 40–50 year old Crowd” to help my husband move this clunker!
I spoke with one of our friends today who is a physician. I asked what his current thinking was on the subject of a pandemic. His eyes got gigantic and dramatic looking. He indicated it was hard to field questions as there were alot of uninformed (or minimally informed) people reacting and he was truly careful about his responses and thoughts. He said his only response these days is “Thank God it’s not in the U.S. now. I don’t want to think about it.” And, he truly meant that. He also said his primary concern was making sure as many elderly folks got the seasonal flu shot right now.
You might consider having someone who is very good with felling trees to come out and bring the dead ones down. If they have any size at all, it can be very dangerous. Sometimes you can do a barter — the arborist brings down the tree and you split the subsequent firewood.
Inky @ 23:02
I bought the Volcano stove as well. Didn’t know about the Cobb but looked on the web after reading your post.
I think we made the right choice because the Volcano uses 12 brickets and the Cobb uses 4–10 depending on the literature you are reading.
The Volcano looks sturdier and I think that is important. I plan on heating my dish and clothes washing water in the designated tubs on the Volcano, the Cobb at 4 lbs wouldn’t be strong enough for this…is my thinking.
Have you used your Volcano yet? I haven’t but am working toward a debut.
Mono, 22:56. The official line is the low CFR. What I believe in is more likely to cause panic for some and total retreat by TPTB.
People I tell will get the real facts and have to make up their own minds what to do.
The preps I arranged for work are only for low CFR, as the mind boggles when I think what we’d have to do in high CFR.
Someone mentioned forcibly keeping people at work and supplying all their needs. My answer was you may as well give up now as it’s voluntary, based on the workplace being clean and well supplied or people will just get out any way they can.
Call of the Wild – at 00:16. “The preps I arranged for work are only for low CFR, as the mind boggles when I think what we’d have to do in high CFR”.
Prepping for a low CFR is, to me, like pissing in the bed trying to keep warm. No offense, but I’m saying TPTB need to wake the hell up and face this bad boy. Either that or explain why or what mechanism is going to bring the CFR down from 50+ %.
I don’t understand what is mind boggling about keeping the grid up in a high CFR event. Why couldn’t a power company stock enough MRE’s and water at the power plants and control centers for the workers and their families? (I would not envision a worker being willing to leave his family to fend for themselves for months on end).
Send all other workers home. No need to do maintenance, engineering, office work. Catch up on that after the pandemic passes.
If network transmission lines trip and lock out, so what? Leave them out of service. Load will be way down anyhow. Probably less than 30% of peak capacity.
If radial distribution lines trip that’s tough sh*t for whoever’s on it. Line men aren’t going to be willing to go out in public to locate and repair a fault. That may sound harsh but I’m talking about keeping the majority of the grid up.
If a unit trips and requires a part from outside to fix, either jury rig the unit somehow and make do without the part, or leave the unit off. If too many units end up off, shed load.
As for finding operators willing to go into quarantine at the plants and control centers. Lay it out for them. You just fixed their prepping problem. What better place to ride out a pandemic than a secure power plant?
I’m saying the majority of the back bone of the grid could stay energized in a high CFR event.
Please explain why that would not work.
Call of the Wild — *I* would volunteer to work at a power plant during a pandemic if they would feed me and plan for the event and have a place for my family. For no pay. Just give me some training!
I would volunteer if I thought/knew the option was to allow THE ENTIRE STATE TO DIE OF THIRST. If I start now, what jobs could I learn? I have no engineering background, but I’m pretty smart. I bet there are a few engineers who could learn as well and would if told the truth and given time to prepare. Or I’d volunteer to take care of all those kids for 3 to 6 months of the workers who do volunteer to stay. Just a thought — must be a few others out there like me.
My dad is a retired engineer with experience in the utiliilties industry. He’d volunteer to work in place at a power plant for a whole year if the alternative was watching the ENTIRE STATE’s POPULATION die of thirst. Really, I think many people would. Or am I naive here?
I mean, really — do we think all those aAmerican soldiers in Iraq right now on their 3rd or 4th tour of duty actually WANT to be there, separated from their families and facing possible death or loss of limbs? Yet some people actually do volunteer for the armed forces, even now. People will do things that are uncomfortable, even volunteer for them, if they perceive the urgency!
bump - let’s go to the keep the GRID up thread - even copy stuff from here to there
Our generation needs to change it’s mind set to a 1940′s WWII mind set. Everybody from Ike on down was dreading the thought of 85% casualties for first wave hitting Normandy. But even worse was the thought of doing nothing and ending up with Hitler ruling the world.
That generation faced a horrible beast and beat it. They didn’t do what we’re doing and hope some miracle makes it go away.
Average Concerned Mom 8:06 - I don’t think you are naive at all. Truth is, this is the stuff of which we are made. JJF THIS is the stuff from which America was made. I sure hope we are up to the challenge. I think it was Goju who repeated that ever famous phrase “United we stand, divided we fall” and IMHO, it will never mean more than when pandemic arrives on our shores.
One of the determinants of severity of a pandemic would be length of disease. If on average people are ill for two weeks that means more need for care, more time for infecting others, and less availability to work. It would change the spreadsheet, maybe dramatically.
At the lenght of disease thread we might discuss what information is available about that subject. It could matter a lot.
-I can’t believe I hadn’t noticed until now. :-/
Spirit in the Wind – at 10:53 - could we make it a world phrase? Nah, just kidding. :-)
lugon…yeah…we should!
Jumping Jack Flash – at 07:43
“I don’t understand what is mind boggling about keeping the grid up in a high CFR event. Why couldn’t a power company stock enough MRE’s and water at the power plants and control centers for the workers and their families? (I would not envision a worker being willing to leave his family to fend for themselves for months on end).”
Yet, you imagine a large number of people, none of whom are infected at the right time.
“Send all other workers home. No need to do maintenance, engineering, office work. Catch up on that after the pandemic passes.
If network transmission lines trip and lock out, so what? Leave them out of service. Load will be way down anyhow. Probably less than 30% of peak capacity.
If radial distribution lines trip that’s tough sh*t for whoever’s on it. Line men aren’t going to be willing to go out in public to locate and repair a fault. That may sound harsh but I’m talking about keeping the majority of the grid up.”
Maintenance, fixing transmission lines that trip and lock out, and fixing tripped radial distribution lines are what it takes to keep the majority of the grid up. If you let all fall to bits nothing is working anymore, and that’s what you’re trying to avoid.
Electricity workers are under no more obligation to turn up to work than just about anyone else.
We don’t have anywhere or the means to accommodate, feed or medicate workers and families in any reasonable conditions. I take the point that some workers might consider it safer to be here, if it was quarantined early enough.
However I also think many other people in this hugely interconnected economy need to turn up to work, but in an environment where hygiene and flu prevention techniques stop them getting the flu at work.
JJF, power plants need a wide range of daily corrective and preventive maintenance to keep going, as well as a huge supply of coal or gas and water. If that stops, we stop.
AC Mom, I can imagine volunteers will be most welcome, one day, as there will be a demand for a lot of extra cleaning and some as yet unknown replacements for ill workers. The objective for me is to encourage people to be ready for PF and committed to coming to work whilst healthy, voluntarily, for the good of society.
I can envision a scenario where we have to provide a bus and driver and collect staff, if they have no transport fuel.
Call of the Wild at 02:03
“Electricity workers are under no more obligation to turn up to work than just about anyone else.”
I’m not sure what you mean by this. I mean, I’m not sure how you can mean it and I don’t want to misunderstand your words.
Is there a single job in the United States at least that is less important than providing fuel and keeping our electricity running so that we can have at a very minumum, water flowing to our homes, especially in the cities?
Air-Traffic Controllers have extremeley important jobs but if they failed to show up for work, planes just wouldn’t take off. If electrical workers all suddenly stopped working and no one could replace them — we’d mostly all die of thirst. (At least in the cities). Please tell me I am being too extreme, I love it when that happens on Fluwikie, shows me I have gone right over the egde.
“We don’t have anywhere or the means to accommodate, feed or medicate workers and families in any reasonable conditions.”
No, of course you don’t. That’s why planning needs to happen, and needs to happen NOW, and if it isn’t affordable (and I’m sure it isn’t) the money has to be found in taxpayer coffers. This is too important. I would say it is time to federalize our untilities and make plans to turn everything over the National Guard and Military, except our National Guard and Military have been EXHAUSTED in Iraq.
Call of the Wild at 02:03
“Electricity workers are under no more obligation to turn up to work than just about anyone else.”
I agree. You can’t force a worker to show up or remain at work. But you can make him want to be at work. Vast vast majority of people are not prepped, including electricity workers. When they see heaps of food and water being amassed at power facilities and it dawns on them that they have a safe place to be during a dire crisis, they will be very willing to show and stay at work.
“ JJF, power plants need a wide range of daily corrective and preventive maintenance to keep going, as well as a huge supply of coal or gas and water. If that stops, we stop. “
I agree. Plants break and can’t be fixed without outside assistance. Critical infrastructure (water, sewer, fuel distribution, communications) accounts for less than 5% of power grid capacity. I maintain that an early quarantine and a stock pile of fuel COULD be sufficient to to meet this 5% demand. I’m not saying this would be easy but I do think it’s possible.
Jumping Jack Flash
“You can’t force a worker to show up or remain at work.”
Well, you can if they are in the military….
bump….
Ok, just got a wild hair, what about FEMA trailers, not great but workers could at least be offered a location that is guarded from the masses, with stockpiled food, water…I’ve never been in or actually seen one of these so I don’t know how big they are or anything. Its an option to keep needed workers for power plant, and other essential workers and their familys safer?
Some workers pledge their services in some way, most don’t, even though their jos are important. When an exec here said we’ll get the army to keep power workers here at gunpoint, not including himself, I realised that some people are off the planet.
My work has been to convince people that it is safe and worthwhile to come to work. If I’m wrong then someone else can do the work instead of me and tell staff what they may face one day. I am going to look into stocking up some food at work, in excess of our normal staff cafe requirements.
I can’t imagine that setting up temporary family accommodation, like a tent city, would inspire a lot of confidence. What happens to your home, pets and supplies while you are compulsorily kept at work?
Call of the Wild – at 20:56
I can’t imagine that setting up temporary family accommodation, like a tent city, would inspire a lot of confidence. What happens to your home, pets and supplies while you are compulsorily kept at work?
How about a nice double-wide mobile-home stocked with food with security provided by the National Guard? To me, this would be preferable to huddling in the dark while gunshots ring out and fires burn uncontrolled.
Call of the Wild —
I value your insight and exerience, and hope you will keep posting.
I’m curious — did I miss something? — I don’t recall any exec(utive?) talking about keeping workers at work at gunpoint. Can you tell me where that was, I would like to see it. That doesn’t sound right, feasible, or moral.
I agree with you that convincing people that it is safe to come to work — not to mention worthwhile — is a noble goal, and a good place to start.
I think the problem may lie — and people might seem a bit over the top if you don’t recognize this — in whether people feel we are preparing for a MILD pandemic versus a SEVERE pandemic. In a MILD pandemic, we expect illnesses all around and health care problems (not enough beds etc.) but not significantly greater than average deaths. That means, it is mostly a health care issue. And a staffing shortage issue. So, handwashing all around, cover that sneeze, please, cross-train employees in critical jobs etc. etc. Get through the 6 weeks of an outbreak, everyone’s better, sadly a few more deaths than usual but none so’s you’d notice.
As you may have noticed from the title of this thread, what scares the skivvies off of some of us is the possibility of a SEVERE pandemic — one in which people are ill for more like 30 days, and are as weak as can be for a few months thereafter; and in which the fatality rate is much higher than normal, so the hospital and health care issue is almost moot. There won’t be any medical after the first 2 weeks, when health care workers are either coming down with the virus themselves or have left work entirely and who could blame them?
People will be afraid of going out anywhere, and states and towns will (in self defense)simply barricade their highways in any way possible to keep the illness out. The handwashing-hygiene-come to work and then go home-routine will not work, and the only hope (I think) is to barricade critical workers inside, in a safe environment, AHEAD OF TIME and allow no one in (out is OK) without a quarantine period. This elaborate protection doesn’t make sense if the pandemic is a mild 1968 type; may not even for a 1957-type — but does make sense for a 1918-type pandemic. It does not come in my mind with guns attached. I do have the hope that the knowledge that your entire state depends on your work to stay alive would be enough for most people to want to work at their jobs. They naturally deserve to be supremely well compensated by a greateful public for this effort. (Now I know I’m being naive!) (-:
I get freaked out when I hear people in the utilities industry say things like “we can only prepare for a mild scenario” because I feel (call me a Monotreme groupie) that something more severe is a likely possibility.
So let me ask you this question — if the next pandemic IS severe — more like 1918 — with death rates of 2 to 10% — and people in critical utilities go home, get infected by their kids/neighbors/spouses, come in and infect their co-workers — and up to 10% die, most of the rest are out sick, flat on their backs for up to 30 days (as happens right not with H5N1 — and half the rest just stay home, too scared to come in — is there a chance? Do the utilities stay up? Or do you think in that case, we truly are just screwed, and there is no point in even planning for something?
Just want to know how much water to stockpile, in the event of a severe pandemic….(-:
Mono, you got me there. Who wouldn’t prefer to be protected in that case? Just got to figure out where to get and put the mobile homes and how to prevent any PF getting into the quarantine area.
Call of the Wild – at 22:29
The Feds should buy and install the Mobile-Homes, and food, and medicine right now. No unfunded mandates. This is a matter of National Security, DHS should cough up the dough.
Essential power plant workers, and their families, would be offered refuge at the beginning of the pandemic. If they said, no, they’d have to take their chances in their unprotected neighborhoods. No-one in after the gates are closed. Any transfers of materials would occur at the guard houses.
Note the basic idea was suggested and explained by Jumping Jack Flash here.
Monotreme,
Answer from Darwin thread posted to your box on the mac.
Monotreme - just cough up the dough? That’s not the way government works. Money has to be accounted for and it has to come from some place.
Let’s say they did just “cough up the dough” and nothing happens. What then? Will you and the rest of the people on the wiki who complain about TPTB not doing enough be just as energetic and vociferous in defending their actions and expenditures?
The amount of semi-professional “rock throwers” on this site absolutely amazes me.
What a great country we live in where you can criticize the government, in advance, for an imagined response to a catastrophic event that may not ever happen.
“What a great country we live in where you can criticize the government, in advance, for an imagined response to a catastrophic event that may not ever happen.”
Hi curious poster. You should know that every expert in the world has predicted a future catastrophic event…the only debate is on exact causative agent and the timing.
I don’t think any undeserved rock throwing is going on but I am open to discussing it further…
…and I would be interested in your definition of semi-professional rock throwers…
curious poster – at 23:34
just cough up the dough? That’s not the way government works. Money has to be accounted for and it has to come from some place.
The Department of Health and Human services have recommended that all States should plan for severe pandemic (2% CFR). The Department of Homeland Security is responsible for Infrastructure. The Government has identified a severe pandemic as a potential emergency that should be planned for. The Government has allocated money to the DHS to keep infrastructure operational during an emergency.
Let’s say they did just “cough up the dough” and nothing happens. What then? Will you and the rest of the people on the wiki who complain about TPTB not doing enough be just as energetic and vociferous in defending their actions and expenditures?
You bet we will. I go out of my way to congratulate local PTB in places like Ft. Wayne, Indiana for doing a great job for preparing their citizens. Drs. David Nabarro of the UN is rock star famous on the Wiki. Most everyone here thinks he’s terrific.
The amount of semi-professional “rock throwers” on this site absolutely amazes me.
Are you giving a lesson?
What a great country we live in where you can criticize the government, in advance, for an imagined response to a catastrophic event that may not ever happen.
Indeed. The fact that we can do this is what separates us from countries like China that have total control over the media. It will be a sad day when Americans are not allowed to criticise their government. And it’s better to for the government to hear what people’s expectations are before a pandemic than after.
AC Mom and Mono, I read that post of JJF’s and agree with him. We obviously both work in the industry. Some of his stuff is saying what needs to be done and why it won’t happen.
Those of us trying to make a difference and be proactive are up against the usual wall of scepticism that most on this wiki experience. I’m doing presentations to staff now and if it’s low key, they seem to take notice.
This will be expanded to giving out all the good information about preps and home medical care but also explaining the priority for keeping the electricity system up. I’ve assembled a large file of relevant articles and am easily the most knowledgeable person in the company on this topic.
Like most things, there isn’t a large stock of mobile homes around for anyone to just go out and buy. That industry is geared to the retirement travel market. I suppose if the government wanted to, they could do something in this area but as JJF says, they don’t want to look like fools, so don’t expect action.
In a high CFR event, which to me is more than 7 dead staff out of 130, our suppliers would let us down anyway, so 30 days later we’d be off line due to no coal. By the way, most staff are essential nowadays.
Personally I keep a home 5,000 gallon water tank near full and clean. I will rig up my one solar panel to drive the water pump via betteries and inverter. Ot I might yet get a small generator.
NS1 – at 23:29
My email has not been functioning for about a week. I will try to fix and respond when I can.
Thanks
Monotreme.
With JWB and now Call of the Wild’s comments…it seems the consensus is that the grid is history within a few weeks of the onset of a pandemic with any sort of CFR…
…not good…I can deal with H5N1 and no healthcare system…I’m not sure I can factor in grid failure and no food distribution for extended periods…and last but not least…no medications to treat sick children…
…I don’t feel so good!!
Call of the Wild – at 23:51
An integrated, National plan is needed. This would include power plants, energy and food. Some people think coal could still be transported during a pandemic. There was a discussion of all of these issues on the Community Preps for the Worst Case Scenario threads.
Tom DVM – at 23:57
Don’t give up yet. We have to keep trying.
I still think some areas of North America will be able to keep essential areas electrified. I hope you live in one of those areas!
Sorry, I forgot to mention Jumpin Jack Flash along with JWB and now Call of the Wild…a consensus of three.
Monotreme
Thanks but I don’t feel like moving to either Washington or Ottawa.
I’m starting to think Ghandian and commune. /:0)
KimT – at 20:47. I thought about FEMA trailers, too. I remember seeing thousands of them headed south on rail cars after Katrina.
One consideration with that is what if the have nots see well fed families living relatively comfortably (compared to them huddled around a burn barrel). It would not take a whole lot for the have nots to rip down the chain link fence and take whatever supplies are there.
Cost to utilities is one reason for not prepping for quarantine.
A better approach, IMHO, would be to utilize plant support buildings (engineering office and maintenance buildings are often sited near power plants). This would eliminate the cost objective, and eliminate, or at least reduce, the have nots threat.
Ok, thanks everyone — I’m moving over to the “A Mild Pandemic is Most Likely” thread because I do not like where this one is heading. )-:
Call of the Wild — I totally hear and agree with everything you are saying — presentations need to be low-key, TPTB have to deal with skeptics, reactions if they guess wrong, and so forth.
But at the very least, there is a difference between saying “We aren’t planning for a severe pandemic” because it is IMPOSSIBLE to (for technical reasons), and saying “We aren’t planning for a severe pandemic because it would be political/professional suicide to do so.”
I also hear you about the 5,000 gallon water tank.
Aw heck, I was just joking about leaving. I’m back.
curious poster at 23:34
“What a great country we live in where you can criticize the government, in advance, for an imagined response to a catastrophic event that may not ever happen.”
I don’t get you here at all. Who’s criticizing? I have only empathy and great respect for the pepole who are right now trying to plan to mitigate the effects of a pandemic. From what I can tell, no one is saying (I mean no one anywhere, not no one on the Fluwiki) that a pandemic will not occur. No one is saying that when it does, it won’t be disruptive.
I can see there is disagreement about HOW disruptive it will be, and a lot depends on the unknown and possibly unknowable. But what I am reading (in plans for dealing with a pandemic) leads me to believe that planners are not planning for a severe pandemic not because they don’t think it is likely but because they fear the political fallout if they guess wrong.
I want to help sway public opinion to make it acceptible for people to plan for the worst. I’m not throwing stones and I don’t think most here are either.
Please continue to post and please share anything you know about this pandemic likely not occuring because I sure would love to hear it! (Please post links!)
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