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Forum: October 13 News Thread

13 October 2006

Okieman – at 07:55

Friday the 13th News goes here.

Blue – at 08:08

Umn?:http://www.mosnews.com/news/2004/10/28/pandemic.shtml

 Not a good sign.
InKyat 08:11

This has been around for a while. This virologist was obviously more invested in plainly stating the possibility of a severe pandemic than he was in spoonfeeding people more manageable scenarios.

Blue – at 08:14
 I’d just never seen it before, but old yeh. News to me that anyone could predict something like that tho.
Dennis in Colorado – at 08:14

New test identifies mystery New York viruses
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A quick new genetic test has helped identify mysterious germs that sickened dozens of New Yorkers in a 2004 outbreak, researchers reported on Thursday.
The test may help doctors and scientists nail down the causes of outbreaks of respiratory disease, which goes unidentified in about half of all cases now.
They found nine previously undiagnosed germs — six viruses and three bacteria, the researchers report in The Journal of Infectious Diseases.
<snip>
About 30 percent of the patients had some type of rhinovirus, a family known for causing the common cold and other upper respiratory infections, Dr. Ian Lipkin of Columbia University and colleagues found.
Eight of the specimens tested positive for rhinoviruses that are unlike any known rhinovirus. <snip>
-----

COMMENT: Good news that they can use MassTag PCR to quickly identify bacteria and viruses. Bad news that they are finding “rhinoviruses that are unlike any known rhinovirus.”

Commonground – at 08:18

http://tinyurl.com/uu3dk
Jakarta (ANTARA News) - Australia is providing another Rp 11 billion to strengthen the capacity of Indonesian Disease Investigation Centres to diagnose the Avian Influenza virus in poultry, Australian Ambassador Bill Farmer said here on Thursday.

The project is part of a Rp p107 billion package pledged by Australia to combat the virus in Indonesia, a press release issued by the Australian Embassy quoting Ambassador Bill Farmer as saying.

“Australia is working with Indonesia`s National Committee for Avian Influenza Control and Pandemic Influenza Preparedness to manage the regional threat of bird flue,” Farmer said.

The diagnosis project will be managed by the Australian Animal Health Laboratory. It will strengthen the capacity of national, regional and provincial laboratories in Indonesia to investigate rapidly suspected Avian Influenza cases and outbreaks, the release said.

“The activities of the project will include the training of Indonesian laboratory staff and the provision of essential laboratory consumables,” Farmer said.

Of the Rp 107 billion pledged, Australia is already implementing projects worth over Rp 62 billion to address Avian Influenza in Indonesia, including assistance through the World Health Organisation to support rapid response teams, the purchase of 50,000 courses of the antiviral medication Tamiflu, the development of a national Pandemic Preparedness Plan for Indonesia and community-based surveillance. (*)

Tally Prepper – at 09:06

http://www.thenational.com.pg/101306/nation5.htm

Seven die in flu and dysentery outbreak

By JAMES KILA SEVEN people have reportedly died following an alleged outbreak of flu and dysentery in remote Mobutasa village in Obura-Wonenara district, Eastern Highlands province, earlier this week. According to Obura Wonenara district health officer Justin Wase, the seven deaths were reported by councillor Waipinase Nogiri on Monday. The councillor walked over rugged terrains and rough gullies to reach Aiyura to report the matter to the district health authorities. Mr Wase said from Mr Nogiri’s report, seven people had died within two weeks from diseases which had symptoms somewhat associated with flu and dysentery. Mobutasa is only accessible by air. Although it is close to Aivondi in the Okapa district, it is politically in the Obura Wonenara electorate. It takes about three days to reach the area from Obura Wonenara. The closest airstrip is also three days away from the village. Mr Wase has reported the matter to the provincial health office in Goroka and has asked for a medical relief team to travel to the area to assess the situation. The National unsuccessfully attempted to get comments from health services director Ben Haili in Goroka. In his report, Mr Wase said the relatively small population of Mobutasa could be wiped out by the epidemic. He requested for a chopper to be hired for health officers to travel to the village. Mr Wase said half of the health facilities in the district were accessible only by air. Of these, 60% are owned by the church health service. He added that 65% of the rural aid posts were closed and about 80% of the maternal deaths were not reported. Furthermore, 78% of outreach clinic programmes in the district were not implemented. The report also stated that 85% of rural health facilities were not visited.

DennisCat 10:08

Thanks Blue at 08:08

For those that did not go to Blue’s link above- here is part of it:

Russian Expert Says Flu Epidemic May Kill Over One Billion This Year

“The world is on the brink of a major flu epidemic — one that could claim more than a billion lives, the head of the Russian Virology Institute…

“The death rate among those who contract this type of flu reaches 70 percent,” Lvov said. The expert called for the Russian authorities to prepare for the epidemic. The country will need a reserve of at least 300,000 hospital beds if an epidemic breaks out, he said.”

http://tinyurl.com/5n329

Dennis in Colorado – at 10:14

DennisC at 10:08
Blue at 08:08

It is interesting … but notice that the story is just a few days short of being two years old. The Russian Expert’s timeline hasn’t played out very well.

LauraBat 10:17

A few prbolems with that Russian virologist article: eventhough he could very well be right, the numbers are so high that I suspect most anyone will take them as being extremist given most gov’ts are only estimating several million deaths. Also, he said only 700,000 ill in the US? That doesn’t sound right at all. If we assume 30% infection rate that’s 100 MILLION ill. Perhaps something got lost in the editing of the article, but number contradictions just less the acceptance of what might happen - gov’t says: it’s won’t be so bad. Some scientists: it won’t be so bad. Other scientists: 20% of the world could be gone. No wonder people don’t know what to think.

Pixie – at 10:25

The Russian virologist Lvov has been one of the more vocal in his profession about the possible extreme negative outcomes of a pandemic. Lvov does have stature - he is a member of the recently formed WHO pandemic panel which will be advising on such things as when to raise the pandemic level from 3 to 4.

Medical Maven – at 10:56

Dennis in Colorado at 8:14-“rhinoviruses that are unlike any know rhinoviruses”.

The last few years there has been an acceleration of these evolutionary developments. Cold and flu season seems to be almost year-round now. And those very bad strains can be very debilitating, if not fatal. All of the scientific focus for the most part is going towards the big killers, and these other nasty developments slip right on by, and we just endure them with no idea of what has knocked us for a loop, sometimes for weeks. (It happened to me in 2002).

We will be Sheltering-in-Place not only to avoid panflu, but to avoid these viruses that could be life-threatening without clinic/hospital care. And they could also be life-threatening because you would simply not be able to do the hard work of survival. It will be a hard-scrabble existence.

Klatu – at 13:19

CDC seeks data on nondrug prevention of pandemic flu

Oct 13, 2006 (CIDRAP News) –” The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) plans to fund eight studies on whether simple measures such as handwashing, “cough etiquette,” and face masks could help limit the extent of the next influenza pandemic. The CDC announced this week it would provide a total of $5.2 million to research institutions, some outside the United States, to assess nonpharmaceutical measures for battling pandemic flu.

The announcement comes amid a wide-ranging CDC effort to come up with specific guidelines on the use of such prevention steps by the end of this year, according to Dr. Martin Cetron, director of the agency’s Division of Global Migration and Quarantine.

Nonpharmaceutical measures may serve as a first line of defense in a pandemic, since it could take several months to develop an effective vaccine, the CDC said in a news release. But officials said there is little scientific evidence about the effectiveness and potential impact of such steps.

“Our challenge now is to determine which community-level measures will work best to limit the spread of infection,” CDC Director Dr. Julie Gerberding commented in the announcement.

Besides handwashing, cough etiquette, and masks, community prevention measures include “social distancing” steps such as closing schools and workplaces and canceling large gatherings. Other steps include voluntary isolation of patients and voluntary quarantine of their household contacts, according to the CDC.

Initial results from some of the studies should be available within about a year, Cetron told CIDRAP News yesterday. Several of the studies will involve following groups of people through the upcoming flu season, he said.

The studies and their principal investigators are as follows:

Effectiveness of Selective Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions in Reducing Influenza-Like Illness Among University Students - Tomas Aragon, MD, University of California, Berkeley

Pittsburgh Influenza Prevention Project - Donald Burke MD, and Sam Stebbins, MD, University of Pittsburgh

Nonpharmaceutical Interventions for Pandemic Influenza - Scott Holmberg, MD, RTI International, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina

A Controlled Trial of Masks and Hand Hygiene for Reducing Influenza Transmission - Gabriel Leung, MD, University of Hong Kong

Reducing Transmission of Influenza by Face Masks - Arnold Monto, MD, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor

Stopping Upper Respiratory Infections and Influenza in the Family: the Stuffy Trial - Elaine Larson, PhD, Columbia University, New York

Pandemic Influenza Control at the Border of Island Countries and in Households - Michael Baker, MD, University of Otago, New Zealand

Evaluation of Masks as a Source Control Non-Pharmaceutical Intervention - Donald Milton, MD, PhD, University of Massachusetts.

Lowell Cetron said the CDC has had requests from state and local public health agencies and other groups for specific guidelines on community prevention measures. The current federal pandemic flu plan contains some general information on the topic, but groups have asked for more details, he said.

“We’ve been engaging for the last several months in responding to that need for greater specificity,” Cetron said. “We’ve been working with many external partners and stakeholders to come up with more refined guidance for community preparedness. We hope to have an interim document by the end of the year.”

When available, the findings of the studies announced yesterday will be used to help refine the guidelines, he said. Other plans include “a series of public engagement projects around the country over the next months.” In addition, the CDC has asked the Institute of Medicine to assess community prevention measures by examining mathematical modeling studies and historical evidence.” - excerpt

http://tinyurl.com/yy9nka

anonymous – at 19:55

http://tinyurl.com/ydp3ca (New Brunswick, Canada)

N.B. university closes after illness outbreak Canadian Press, SACKVILLE, N.B — A virus known for causing havoc on cruise ships and in nursing homes is stalking the halls of academe at Mount Allison University in New Brunswick.

What is believed to be a Norwalk-type virus has struck at least 100 people on the campus of Mount Allison and in the surrounding university town of Sackville.

It forced officials on Friday to close public buildings and cancel extracurricular activities until Monday.

University spokesperson Sheila Blagrave said about 40 students went to outpatient services at the local hospital on Thursday and Friday to be treated for dehydration.

http://tinyurl.com/ylt5rd (British Columbia, Canada)

Mould the culprit in duck die-off - The Chilliwack Progress, Oct 13 2006 - City of Chilliwack staff trucked away more 240 wild birds that had been seen keeling over in the park and floating in the pond over several days last week.

Samples of mallard carcasses were rushed to the animal laboratory in the Abbotsford Agriculture Centre for tests. The fungal spores are found in mouldy feed and silage which the birds stir up with their beaks, but Dr. Lewis added he’s not sure what could be done to prevent a similar occurrence.

“My suspicion is that lots of die-off incidents may go on at this time of year that no one knows about when the conditions are ripe. All you have to do is add a lot of birds and there could be a lot of deaths,” he said. “But in a park setting like this was, it’s very visible and obvious.”

Wildlife biologist Laurie Wilson with the Canadian Wildlife Service said the infected mallards likely sought refuge in the park when they were feeling sick. “It’s not unexpected that they would be found in the park,” she said. “If you’re a sick bird, you would go to a body of water where you felt safe.”

The mould source could be anywhere in the area, she said, and it grows best on decomposing organic matter left in a warm, dark, moist environment. Environment ministry staffers did drive around looking for evidence of rotted material that could be the culprit in local fields but the cursory search didn’t turn up anything. “It could be found on a number of fields in the area, or it could be silage-related,” Wilson said.

anonymous – at 20:13

http://tinyurl.com/y7e9p8 (Michigan)

Biologists try to figure out what’s killing lake birds - 10/03/2006, EMPIRE — Biologists are testing dead birds found in the Sleeping Bear Dunes National Lakeshore to determine whether they died from a toxin carried in dead fish.

Ken Hyde, a biologist at Sleeping Bear, said park employees in August sent a collection of bird species found dead along the lakeshore to the state Department of Natural Resources lab for testing. Tests came back positive for Type E botulism, a naturally occurring toxin found primarily in decaying fish. Dead birds included seagulls, grebes and cormorants.

Hyde said it isn’t unusual to see birds die of botulism when it coincides with the die-off of fish carrying the toxin. But the park has received many calls in the last week reporting dead birds along the shoreline, and there recently haven’t been many dead fish.

Biologists are collecting several more species to send in for testing. Hyde predicted that test results could take several weeks. “We’re just trying to make sure it’s still related to the botulism,” he said.

Bronco Bill29 December 2006, 11:45

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