A brief recap
I have speculated in the past that there must be a hidden mammalian reservoir for H5N1 due to the progressive adaptation of H5N1 to humans here and here. One possibility is that the reservoir is pigs, in China.
Here’s where we are right now.
Commonground – at 11:51 on the previous thread. Yes, I have noticed an interesting pattern with certain dates as well. Hard to know whether this is coinicidence or influence. In any case, I think we should keep doing what we’ve been doing.
I wonder, whether this possible new virus, which supposedly is activated by a secondary infection (including probably H5N1), whether it is activated also when immunity against that secondary infection is present. Is this possibly also a mechanism to circumvent immunity ?
this is a online discussion board with discussions in chinese about the sick pigs in China. (Saw this at curevents.) http://world.altavista.com/babelfish/trurl_pagecontent?lp=zh_en&trurl=http%3a%2f%2fwww.zhue.com.cn%2ftechnology%2fkdf%2fkdf_index.asp if the link does not work look here; http://www.curevents.com/vb/showthread.php?t=57964&page=3
bump
I suggest taking a look at the New Rumor thread and DennisC – at 10:39. It may help put several things in perspective.
The situation in Asia might be more complicated that originally thought.
Chinese Medical Journal, 2006, Vol. 119 No. 17 : 1458–1464
LU Jia-hai School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China; ZHANG Ding-mei School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China; WANG Guo-ling School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China
CONCLUSION (excerpt)
In Netherlands/Germany in 2003, the highly pathogenic H7N7 influenza viruses that was lethal to poultry infected the eyes of more than 80 people and killed one person; H6 and H9 have spread from a wild aquatic bird reservoir to domestic poultry over the past 10 years. H9N2 viruses have also been associated with human infections in the mainland of China and Hong Kong. Avian influenza H10N7 seems to have crossed the species barrier from poultry to people for the first time. Hence, it is possible that the next influenza pandemic may not be due to H5N1
I just read numerous posts on News Now that since July there have been pig infections of H5N1 in Indonesia. The articles didn’t know if the pigs had died. The Indonesian “official” passed them off as saying “these are old infections, from July”. Funny, I don’t recall hearing about them in July. I think the scenario that TomDVM and Monotreme has, in fact, been perking steadily. This is an old Communist trick by the way, wait until shocking news is “old” and then introduce it like it’s no big deal, without a free press nobody there to make waves.
Excuse me, the scenario that they PREDICTED has been perking. Very tired…and old…and crotchety.
Taiwan Quick Take: Pig disease alert issued
http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2006/10/08/2003330847
STAFF WRITER, WITH CNA Sunday, Oct 08, 2006, Page 3 Chiayi County agricultural authorities urged local hog farmers and veterinarians yesterday to be on the alert for an outbreak of an unknown disease infecting pigs in southern China, where 40 percent of affected livestock have died and the outbreak has shown signs of spreading. County animal Disease Control Center officials said that infected sows are prone to have miscarriages or still-births. High fever, high mortality and a fast infection rate are the main indications of the unidentified disease, which has been found in Jiangxi, Hunan, Guangtong, Hubei, Anhui, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Fujian provinces, with around 1 million pigs having died in Jiangxi alone. To prevent the outbreak from spreading across the Taiwan Strait, Hsu Ling-sung (®}µÙªQ), county director of agricultural affairs, urged local pig farmers not to visit the affected areas. For those unable to cancel plans to travel to the affected regions, Hsu advised them to stay away from their farms for one week after returning from China.
This may not be the thread to ask this on, but please help with these thoughts -
what should we be planning regarding our pets being out and about in a pandemic - must all cats and dogs be kept inside lest they bring the virus home to us who are sipping?
How contagious should we think H5N1 is to our pets if someone in household gets the flu?
What about farm animals far out in the country? How suseptable are they if the people around are sipping and not comingling with other people? Once the H5N1 goes H2H, will the virus be different and not as contagious to farm animals from a human source?
So many concerns to try to be aware of. It is really exhausting.
LEG. Good questions. I will take a shot at them and others can give you their opinion.
When the pandemic virus evolves it will be totally different than today…today we have a bird virus that is partially evolved to mammals but cannot maintain itself in the new populations (transmissibility) which is a good thing because the mortality rate for those who do catch it is very high…this often happens with viruses entering a novel animal species.
When the virus becomes pandemic, it will be a human virus rather than an avian virus and it will by definition have a preferemce for humans…in most diseases humans would be the end-game but this virus isn’t a normal virus and therefore these are not normal times.
Therefore, at the point of the pandemic, our pets are going to be at far greater danger and risk from us then we will be from our pets. I don’t think it is a big issue but the jury is still out on the role cats are playing and if it becomes clear that they are a vector, then we may be in serious trouble with kids and pets.
During a pandemic it would be wise to control the travel of cats and dogs…but primarily cats. On the farm chickens and ducks and pigs may be susceptible…I would not expect cattle, sheep or goats to be nfected because Ruminants tend not to be susceptible to disease that affect monogastric animals.
The bottom line is that in a pandemic with a virus adapted specifically to humans…we will become the index species.
thanks, though I probably really didn’t want to hear that Tom. Smiles anyway with the thanks.
If the cats go, there isn’t enough rat poison in the whole world to control the mice and rats. Let us hope the raptors, coyotes, badgers, and skunks pick up the slack. Rats and mice aren’t called vermin for nothing, and they do compete with us for food, and they are extremely destructive of all unprotected vehicles, etc.
And they will come after us, if they see us weakened, vulnerable, debilitated.
We don’t know what mammals will succumb, but if the rodents get it, their predators may also.
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