Forum: Pigs in China the Hidden Mammalian Reservoir for H 5 N 1 Part 3

Part 1

Part 2

Nightowl – at 08:42

If the pig illness is Nipah, how long does it take to get a definitive test. Would China have the capability to test for it?

Dennis in Colorado – at 08:44

From China, 9/1/06:

Farmers’ interest in taking up piglet supplies varied from region to region. In the north, farmers were mostly concerned over the possibility of pig diseases which are likely to occur in autumn. Going forward, lower temperatures will also slow the rate of fattening hogs, and this has discouraged some farmers from taking up supplies.

The temperature in southern China’s winter will still be higher than those in the north. Other than in the areas affected by pig diseases, farmers’ interest in buying piglets are still higher.

In the initial period of the pig disease outbreak, many hogs and sows had succumbed to the disease. Traders and meat processors had thus seized the opportunity to bargain for very low hog procurement prices. This had affected farmers’ interest in taking up piglet supplies, and piglet prices were slightly lower even in the unaffected areas during the first half of the week in review.

Earlier, the pig disease had also killed many hogs, especially in farms with big herds in parts of Hunan province. After authorities there had rolled out measures to bring the outbreak under control, piglet replenishment activities had started to recover.

Meanwhile, deliveries of piglets to other regions had also increased. In regions where piglet inventory had been low, farmers were seen more active in taking up piglet supplies.

By making piglet replenishment during this period (late August to September), farmers were hoping to bring in profits early next year as piglets would have fattened sufficiently to be sold as hogs during the Spring Festival (Feb 18) in 2007.

Parts of south-western China continued to be plagued by a dry spell. With temperature hovering around 40 deg C, farmers there were less active in taking up piglet supplies.

Market forecast As measures to control the pig disease takes effect, analysts expect piglet replenishment in regions previously affected by pig disease to pick up.

In the week ahead, piglet replenishment activities are expected to pick up in southern China, while those in the north may not increase much. Overall, piglet prices are seen stable.

COMMENT

“many hogs and sows had succumbed to the disease. Traders and meat processors had thus seized the opportunity to bargain for very low hog procurement prices.”

Hopefully, the hogs they were procuring at very low prices were NOT the same ones that has succumbed to disease…

anonymous – at 09:06

It seems premature to look for an economic impact from the death of ‘only’ 1 million pigs. There are 960 million pigs in the world. China has approximately half of them. The infection rate (reported) is less than 1 percent (.52%) and CFR is (.20%) assuming 40% CFR and 1 million dead.

An economic impact could be estimated if we knew how transmissible this is. I know we’re not there yet.

For the DVM’s and other scientists: Others have pointed out that 80% of the pigs in China are in backyard farms. Is there any data to determine whether the infected group is predominantly ‘back yard pigs’ versus commercial farms? Is the distribution consistent? If the affected group is skewed to the commerical farmers is there any likelihood that the condition is due to direct inoculation rather than ‘on the wind’?

ssol – at 09:09

anonymous – at 09:06. Sorry, that is me.

ssol – at 09:17

Dennis in Colorado – at 08:44

“Earlier, the pig disease had also killed many hogs, especially in farms with big herds in parts of Hunan province. After authorities there had rolled out measures to bring the outbreak under control,…”

Seems almost like business as usual, it’s at odds with the concern on this thread. I wonder how they controlled it.

From chinafeed.org:

Pork exports for May were up 11.3% from a year earlier and the second largest monthly exports of record. For January - May, pork exports were up 15.3% from twelve months earlier.

This 15.3% export growth was with our number one customer, Japan, down 9.5% from 2005. Canada was up 6.3%; Mexico, up 30.1%, Russia, up 151.7%; South Korea, up 59.4%; China, mainland and Hong Kong, up 25.4%; Taiwan, up 54.7%; Caribbean, up 74.8%; and others, down 0.1%.

Pork imports for May were down 4.3%, but for January - May, were up 3.5%. Net pork exports for January - May were at 10.23% of production, with exports at 15.09% of production and imports at 4.86% of production.

Sow slaughter recently has been up substantially from a year earlier. If the weekly live animal import from Canada is correct, slaughter of sows from the domestic herd was up 11.1% for the week ending July 1 and was up 10% for the four weeks ending July 1 and was up 10% for the four weeks ending July 1, after adjusting for the size of the breeding herd.

We can only speculate why we have this much increase in sow slaughter. Two possibilities would be that some producers could have decided now is a good time to depopulate-repopulate because of disease problems. Also, producers who are about ready to retire or at least exit the hog business may have decided now is a good time to execute these plans. Certainly, unless we are bailed out with demand growth again, hog profits the next couple of years will turn to red, especially if we have a short corn crop that would increase costs substantially.

< snip >

Hog slaughter the last two weeks is disturbing. Last week, the preliminary data showed a 4.5% increase in slaughter and this week’s estimate at 1969 thousand head is up 5.4% from a year earlier. This week’s increase is with the hottest weather of the year.

It seems the US is not an importer of China pigs, unless we are buying the product after it is further processed and labeled ‘product of X country’ as Tom DVM pointed out the Canadians allow.

From Commonground – at 06:49 on the News thread:

News http://tinyurl.com/o4wyu China Issues New Restrictions on Foreign Media By VOA News 10 September 2006

China’s official news agency, Xinhua, says it has been authorized to determine what news and information foreign media can distribute in the country.

Xinhua issued new regulations Sunday saying information may be banned from distribution if it is deemed to undermine China’s national unity, sovereignty and territorial integrity.

The state agency said it has the right to delete any material released by foreign news agencies that it does not approve of.

Xinhua said the regulations may also be applied to news agencies in Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan that distribute information to the mainland.

Comment: Any guesses on whether anyone but government officials and spammers (who may be the same people) have access to Flu Wiki? I’m guessing this thread would no go over well there right now.

Severe information crack down in Mainland China right now. I wonder why? No external events that I am aware of.

And that “severe information crack down” is more telling than troop movements. Some geographical location of NONChinese origin will be named for this coming panflu, they are making sure of that.

yes, “only” one million pigs. But look at the increase since July.
Does it look as if it would stop now ?
However, reading those reports it looks as if ManyCats might finally
be right.


Many Cats – at 23:22
Come now, Monotreme. It’s just another new animal disease. That’s been happening a lot recently. Nothing to worry about. Move along, now…
(sarcasm)

I’m missing a “no diagnosis just means no diagnosis” comment…

Monotreme – at 09:36 “Severe information crack down in Mainland China right now. I wonder why? No external events that I am aware of.”

It could be for any number of reasons; pigs, Taiwan, North Korea, nukes or war games. But, if fluwikie sees information about pig deaths dry up immediately, then we have a smoking gun.

Monotreme, censorship in China , how can you be surprised by that ? It’s not new.

Hey, you guys move too fast. I posted on the old thread! lol

Re-posting here:

I spent 2–3 hours yesterday surfing on both English and Chinese language sites until I got bleary-eyed from pig diseases, pig prices, pig fevers, pig skin rashes….. <g>

Anyway, first for the prices. What the Chinese language media inside of China ie local agricultural news is reporting for a few months now is a rise in pork prices because of increased demand as a knock-on effect from avian flu, when people switch to eating more pork and less poultry. BTW most of that info is reported as part of something like a stock analyst’s report for small investors, so they know which company to buy, presumably. Interesting.

So that’s for prices.

I read various bits about swine fevers etc. There are a couple of sources of confusion. Apparently, when they say ‘pig/hog/swine high fever disease’, it only describes a clinical syndrome of high fever, usually spreading rapidly through, which can include a number of diagnoses. One of the agricultural colleges (sorry, can’t remember which and no link, gotta do better next time) say that the commonest cause is still swine fever, either the ‘classical’ type, or the ‘atypical’ or mild type when the pigs have been vaccinated but the vaccines were not entirely effective, so they get a milder syndrome (probably not this time though). That seems to be the consensus from other sites as well.

Another paper gave the following as causes for high fever and reddish or purpuric (similar to bruising) rashes:

1. (in young piglets) paratyphoid
2. Atypical Swine fever
3. Swine Erysipelas
4. Streptococcus Suis
5. Enzootic pneumonia
6. Contagious pleuropneumonia

Later stages of swine fever can cause pneumonia with respiratory symptoms.

The human cases: there are references in Hong Kong media of people being confirmed as Streptococcus Suis infections.

Swine fever does not appear to transmit to humans.

OK, that’s what I understand so far.

My impression: They’ve been having outbreaks of high fever in pigs in the summer for the past few years, and this year its said to be worse. I think it is still most likely swine fever, with some Strep suis.

However, I did read one interesting commentary (I believe it was academic and not government or media, but I’m not 100% sure, doing this from memory.) that there is a collection of syndromes that are very similar that break out around the same time each year. There are difficulties in diagnosing them properly, but most of the bigger outbreaks are likely to be swine fever. Then there was this one sentence, that usually the first outbreak in the season is swine flu, which generally lasts a short time and doesn’t kill a lot of the pigs, but reduces their resistance to the subsequent viruses. By the time you know there are large outbreaks of fever, the flu phase is over, so tests for flu would be negative.

I thought that was interesting, for what it’s worth.

Monotreme – at 09:36 wrote:

Severe information crack down in Mainland China right now. I wonder why? No external events that I am aware of.

2008 Olympics China …….$ 20–40 Billion.

It’s not the first time the Chinese have lacked transparency

July 31, 2005

HONG KONG - Chinese authorities have banned local reporters from visiting areas where an outbreak of a pig-borne disease has killed 34 farmers, ordering newspapers to use dispatches from the state news agency, a Hong Kong newspaper reported Sunday.

A total of 174 confirmed or suspected cases have been linked to the bacteria streptococcus suis in China’s southwestern Sichuan province, where farmers who handled or butchered infected pigs have been sickened in dozens of villages and towns. Symptoms include nausea, fever, vomiting, and bleeding under the skin.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/8742214/

ssol at 9:56: I follow the China news very closely, the broad spectrum. There is nothing “cooking” with Taiwan, North Korea, etc. And the nukes and war games are trumpeted, not disguised. The only things other than viral outbreaks, animal and human, that they might want to keep under wraps are the increasing stories of horrific pollution and water problems that they are experiencing and any possible uprisings by local populations because of those problems.

And you also have to look at “geographical cleansing” programs that they may be contemplating or have already initiated due to viral outbreaks.

Hi anon 22. Thanks for the information. I don’t know who would produce the differential diagnosis above but I would respectfully disagree.

Erysipelas is one good example…soil borne bacteria…high temperature…called diamond skin disease because of uriticaria…pigs are sick for very long time making it a beautiful disease to treat with penicillin…100% success rate….I treated it many times and it is a great disease to make a veterinarian look good and that’s a good disease because as flu wikians are now learning, there are a lot of diseases that make a veteriarian look like a ‘bum’.

The list doesn’t make too much sense. the only one there that does make sense is Atypical Swine Fever.

What they are trying to sell you is that after several years of outbreaks this is the best they can come up with…despite their scientific prowess, they can’t isolate one virus or bacteria and are speculatively calling this atypical Swine Fever.

I looked in my textbook under Atypical Swine Fever and found the following equation:

Atypical Swine Fever = H5N1…H1, H2, H3, H4, H7, H9…Nipah…or just about any other exotic or mutated previously unknown disease pathogen with a combination of High attack rate, High kill rate, high virulence, and resistant to all control measures.

classical swine fever, AKA “hog cholera”. Could it be such hard to diagnose ?

Tom, nobody is trying to sell me anything. This is from agricultural information sites, ie educational/resource sites for farmers, not news sites. So it could be that they are wrong, or they just have different disease patterns.

apparantly they had no problem to rule out “African swine fever”

Tom DVM at 10:11-“there are a lot of diseases that make a veteriarian look like a bum”.

I got a good laugh out of that one. “Been there, done that”, but on the receiving end. You guys do have a hard row to hoe. : )

Tom, Atypical swine fever is my direct translation of their chinese equivalent phrase, which in their context they meant the version you get after partially effective vaccination.

The nomenclature that you use may not mean the same thing. You can’t look up your textbook and expect that they are talking about the same thing. I go with their detailed explanation for that term.

Also, the list that I gave was what they had for fever + red/purpura.

When I searched for fever itself, or fever and respiratory symptoms, then they also had swine flu as one of the diagnosis. But the description (and I checked several sources, all educational/resource sites, and not news) of swine flu does not contain any severe redness of skin as a striking symptom.

Just reporting what I learnt.

I meant “which in their context they meant the version you get after partially effective vaccination of the swine fever CSFV virus vaccine” :-)

Anon 22. Sorry, In my country we say that when someone is writing or saying something that makes no sense…which means that some diseases in the rule outs listed by them not you…do not make sense and as anonymous at 10:17, some disease are obviously missing.

So when I say someone is ‘selling you something’ it is a colloquialism. Hope I spelled it write but probably not. /:0)

Medical Maven. Thanks…it is a thankless job at times but at least we worked with wonderful people and a wonderful community…kind of like flu wiki.

Also, I’m only saying FYI this is what they mean when they say this and this… Not necessarily saying they have the right diagnosis.

anonymous – at 10:17 apparantly they had no problem to rule out “African swine fever”

I don’t know if they have problem ruling in or out anything. But they seem to loosely put this under swine fever as well, ie sometimes they would make the distinction of classical or African, sometimes they just say swine fever to cover both and atypical swine fever for those vaccinated.

I just had a revelation: it is likely that they need to make this a easier classification for farmers to understand. For the management of the pigs, I guess the minimum stuff that farmers need to know for example would include looking out for possible swine fever even after vaccination, rather than trying to distinguish between classical and African.

Sorry. Freudian slip on “Hope I spelled it write…”

annon 22. They are telling you that particularly virulent Aytical Swine Fever is what they get after a particularly effective and successful vaccination program.

All I can say is…that I hope their H5N1 vacination program isn’t equally as successful but then again maybe the above statement says a lot about their overall scientific competence.

Being scientifically competent usually is inversly proportional to how much money you have.

AZoMed.com (old article)

The World Health Organisation (WHO) says that China has done a good job of supplying information (re: Swine) on the epidemic and taken extensive steps to block further infections.

http://www.azomed.com/?id=12183

Let’s not forget all of the dead dogs from the new ‘rabies’ strain that was also hitting at the end of July/ late August. I’ve got to be out most of the day, but I will be doing some research on that to see if it was happening in the same regions. I have a sinking feeling that that probably bears looking into as well because they were reporting deaths with those outbreaks, too.

Personally, I’ve been waiting for more bad news since hearing that they had slaughtered 100,000 dogs since the beginning of July……

The dots are starting to connect themselves. Wonder how crazy this pandemic ride is going to get?

tom dvm - I read on another thread that you or someone wanted to send you an email. I have setup a box for you. tomdvmatsingtomeohmusedotcom you get there by typeing into your browser the url with /webmail at the end. Once you open this box for the first time…change the password so it is private. contact me at dudeatsingtomeohmusedotcom from this box once you have done this, that way i know the is in use by you…passwordiswiki123.

Klatu. My friend…you are throwing gasoline on a raging brush fire!! /:0)

Don’t shoot the messenger.

when we read these economical comments above … no one seems to
consider the possibility that it could be H5N1. Although they must
be aware of this problem in China. Now, wouldn’t the people,
farmers and consumers, react quite differently if there were fear
of H5N1 ? Rememeber the reports from Indonesia !

Tom, what do you think of this Enterococcus faecium-Related Outbreak with Molecular Evidence of Transmission from Pigs to Humans

Between 24 July and 31 August 1998, thousands of domestic pigs died of hemorrhagic shock in three adjunct counties along the YangZi River in Jiangshu Province, China. From 28 July to 6 September 1998, 40 local farmers (36 males and 4 females, ages 23 to 78 years) were hospitalized with severe illness characterized by high fever, erythematous rash or petechiae, and profound lethargy after contact with sick pigs. Twelve (30%) of these patients died of respiratory failure and shock. Eleven bacterial isolates recovered from 11 blood and cerebrospinal fluid specimens collected from seven patients and two pigs were identified as Enterococcus faecium based on biochemical reactions and 16S rRNA gene sequence analysis. Both pig and human E. faecium isolates displayed indistinguishable antibiotic susceptibility and pulsed-field gel electrophoresis patterns. These data strongly suggest the spread of an outbreak of E. faecium-related sepsis from pigs to humans

Klatu – at 10:38 Don’t shoot the messenger.

:-)

anonymous. I have been observing the Chinese Government closely since Sept 1998 initiated by an unrelated issue to the one we discuss here. They have not once, to my mind, told the truth. They don’t know what the truth is…as far as I am concerned it is not a word in the offical thesaurus of their ‘Red Book’ or whatever you call it.

They are not telling the truth here…that is obvious to anyone experienced in this field. But the truth will come out at some point…because you can’t get around nature…it is incessant.

don’t you also feel strange when reading all these reports about some hundred
or thousand of cases and now we have _millions_ ? And that in less than 2 months !

Klatu – at 10:02 Monotreme – at 09:36 wrote: Severe information crack down in Mainland China right now. I wonder why? No external events that I am aware of.

2008 Olympics China …….$ 20–40 Billion.

No, 30th anniversay of the death of Mao

you can’t so well hide the truth about prices and economical behaviour or hysteria of masses.

anon 22. You probably know that Erysipelas is a pretty good zoonosis in its own right. When you start to add them all up it gets a little scary. And I know that you probably know that the difference between erysipelas and this thing going on now, is that the immune systems of these pigs have never seen this ‘bug’ whatever that bug is…and this bug has more transmissibility then most things in the past including Enterococcus faecium you mention above.

Dude. Thanks…but you are working with a person who knows very little about computers. I will try it a little later.

Tom, so just based on such limited information, what’s your best guess?

2008 Olympics China …….$ 20–40 Billion.
No, 30th anniversay of the death of Mao


celebrations of Chinese spring festival Feb.18.2007.

anon 22. Tough one…my best guess is influenza…maybe H5 maybe something else.

But you know China as well as anyone else? How could they possibly keep this a secret and how could they look us in the eye and say after several years and two months in this massive outbreak…that they have no idea? They have got to know that that makes them look like scientific and regulatory adn medical idiots? There is a lot about China that I don’t get.

I am just sitting here…’keeping my powder dry’…okay maybe I’m taking a few pot shots at them but one thing I know for sure…all we have to do is ‘stay calm’, ‘be brave’…’wait for the signs’ (Tom King - Native Canadian Writer…the truth is going to come out within the next 2–3 weeks…

…unless China’s way out of this, is to thumb its nose at the whole world communtity.

and you would want to include NIPAH in the rule outs…right at the top.

If China in the past was the “perfect storm” for pandemics, it is now the incipient supernova of hothouse possibilities. My jaw drops on a regular basis on the reports of endemic pollution from the toxin-laden bottom of their shrinking water table to the sulfurous stench rising to the stratosphere. And then you throw human collusion into the equation. The Middle Kingdom is nothing more than a prideful petri dish. (And pride goeth before a fall).

uhh, ohh, ahh. But influenza with 40% mortality in swine , still apparantly very few human cases and no panicing whatsoever. The media, the nimans, the mods, the promed-people, the journalists, the WHO, the FAO,OEI, the governments noone is really frightened ?!? What’s going on ? TomDVM, you _must_ be wrong.

let’s just deliver some hundred influenza - quick - tests to some hundred private Chinese farmers and ask for a report. Can it really be hidden with 2.5 million infected pigs ? Some sample or test result should find it’s way to Boxun or Stoehr or Hongkong or western embassy or whatever.

Re: motivation for severe information crackdown in China, today

Klatu,

The 2008 Olympics are in, well, 2008. Why crackdown today? And how does it help the Chinese government with the Olympics to crack down on information in China? They can’t control the external media’s reporting on the Olympics. If foreigners don’t like what’s going on in China, they won’t come. If the Chinese people are in the dark, they may wonder why no-one came, but that won’t do the government much good.

anon_22,

So, to celebrate Mao’s birthday, they decided to bring back the Cultural Revolution? Sorry, I don’t get it.

I think the crack down on information in China is directed against the Chinese people. The autocrats is frightened, deeply frightened of their own people. They don’t want foreigners distributing information about something to the people. Their recent behaviour reeks of desperation, fear and now, panic.

My speculation: This is about H5N1. They can and will control the foreign media on this story because they will shortly install their sock puppet as Director-General of the WHO. Since most MSM accepts whatever the WHO says without question, the PRC autocrats can write the script that will appear on Fox News as the pandemic unfolds. Some irony there. I suspect they always planned to control media in China, but recent events may have forced their hand. They now have had to accelerate internal information control.

Next thing to watch for, acceleration of the DG choice. The excuse will be: “Oh, events in Indonesia require that we get a new DG right away. Dr. Chan?

Medical Maven. Pretty soon we are going to have to give you your own quotes thread /;0)

anonymous. I have been wondering exactly the same thing…and I agree completely with you. Thats why I’m not prepping.

don’t flame me…I’m just joking about the prepping…actually I’m good for a year and a half./:0)

Okay, here’s an idea- maybe a stupid one, I don’t know. Tom DVM you said you don’t think pigs can get dengue fever, but what if something has changed and they can? It just came to mind that the ‘undiagnosed’ pig illness causes redness of the skin or reddish purple discoloration, could that be similar to the red rash caused by dengue and in some cases the more serious hemorraghic form(reddish to purple rashes)? The variance in the severity of symptoms could be that some of the pigs are infected with different dengue virus, some could be infected with more than one.

from wikipedia…’Caused by one of four closely related virus serotypes of the genus Flavivirus, family Flaviviridae, each serotype is sufficiently different that there is no cross-protection and epidemics caused by multiple serotypes (hyperendemicity) can occur.’

If the assumption is that pigs can’t get dengue then it’s possible they haven’t tested for it. Also the problem has been coming up each year about the same time and seems to correlate with the timing of the dengue outbreak in humans, this year anyway. Just a thought from a non-scientist.

I’m sorry ,did you say 2.5 million pigs?I didnt see that report, only greater than a million.Elaboration and enlightenment please.

Monotreme,

anon_22, So, to celebrate Mao’s birthday, they decided to bring back the Cultural Revolution? Sorry, I don’t get it.

You really don’t get it :-). OK, this is China Watching 101, ready?

There is a revival of hero worship of Mao that’s been going on for a few years now, which is a reflection of the people abreacting to the wealth gap and inequality etc. It is (probably misguided) nostalgia for a more ‘innocent’ age. The message from the people is “bring back those who were not (or less) corrupt”. This is like voting against an establishment when you don’t have a vote.

one million dead, 40% mortality that makes 2.5 million infected.

Hi MaMa good to see…I mean hear you again. There are a couple of things here.

These clinical signs are very general and nonspecific and they may have been meant to be released this way. This could be one of a thousand diseases based on those clinical signs. It is the nuances within the clinical signs that allow a professional to narrow the list and when they are still talking about Erysipelas…you know the list isn’t being narrowed down at all…it could be that the Chinese Government just sealed the area as far as this disease goes…fear is a great speech therapist.

The second thing is that if you look at historical reports from 1918, you will see that Dengue Fever was the disease that H5N1 was called for months or years during the initial stages of the pandemic in several geographic areas around the world…now to me, that means we are going to be hearing alot about Dengue fever now and we are…just another sign that a pandemic is imminent, in my opinion…either weeks, months or a few years at best.

anon 22 After several years I will be the first one in line to sign up for your ‘China Watching 101 course’…I am getting a little to old for essays though.

I expect Monotreme will be second in line at the desk in the gym. /:0)

(I know this is off topic, but since everyone else has been off topic for a while, I might as well see if I can help some folks understand how to read Chinese media reports. Apologies.)

China Watching 101, Unit 1.0.2 (1.0.1 being my post at 11:20)

Class exercise: What is the most significant piece of information you can get from the following passage? Why?

From the Sunday Times link:

Yesterday’s edition of the People’s Daily in the capital carried an extremely rare article by Mao’s surviving son, Anqing, headlined “Memories of my father”. It praised Mao as a selfless leader who hated corruption and refused to promote his relatives to positions of power.

Or pieces of information, if you find more than one that are highly significant.

I have often worried (yes, I worry too much) about Africa- Nigeria to be specific. They had initial H5N1 cases and then no more information has come out of there lately. They also have some of the highest rates of dengue. I wonder if some H5N1 could be getting lost in the dengue cases. Ok I will try to stop worrying about nothing.

Sorry, one other thing to mention. An outbreak that has been going on for years should have had more natural immunity develop. Even with a forty percent mortality rate, if that is the case…there should be 60% of immune animals around for the next season…

…an outbreak lasts for years with expanding numbers each summer?

indicates a virus that is genetically unstable…a virus that is mutating away from vaccines and natural immunity each season…

…sounds a lot like influenza doesn’t it?

TomDVM, so please rethink your best guess from 10:58. Feel free to modify it at any time.

Dennis C. Thanks for the heads up!! What we have to do right now is connect seemingly unrelated dots. We know the pandemic is coming…its the timeline we are looking for and can extract from such data.

asnonymous. I like you but I do not think I will be changing my guess.

Tom DVM, thanks. I wouldn’t be at all suprised the culprit was flu. Based on what I’ve read and learned in the last year or so I wouldn’t trust the Chinese Goverment as far as I could throw, well, a pig:-) I believe that H5N1 has been infecting and killing pigs for quite some time now- hence my obsession….er, I mean attention to reports of unexplained pig deaths:-) I just had to ask the question.

But you like everyone here, so that doesn’t mean a lot. I do want a second opinion from another DVM. Still no reply from Dan Silver or ModPC, still nothing from Mingus, Usenet, the-pig-site.

The Chinese government values stablity over all else. So it may be just to keep farmers from panicking from a known virus or any other stabilty threatning causes of one could be BF.

anon_22-Sort of like what we used to do—reading between the lines of Pravda when the old Evil Empire (USSR) was still intact.

“It praised Mao as a selfless leader who hated corruption and refused to promote his relatives to positions of power”.

TRANSLATION-

All you guys out in the provinces are going to have to cool it. Those yokels you lord it over are beginning to get restive what with lead poisoning and black lung. And if you don’t stop fleecing them, taking their land, and putting your kids in charge of the local mill, we can’t begin to crank back this runaway environmental disaster that we have on our hands. (And you know what happened to the Japanese in the 90s with all of those useless overbuilt projects that generated no profitable revenue).

anon_22, I find your “China Watching” instructions interesting, but completely unbelievable, sorry.

China has launched a massive crack down on foreign media because they think outlets like Voice of America are going to be writiing too many pro-Mao stories which will de-stabilise the current, corrupt government? Whoa, that is really… some interpretation.

I have my own sources of information about what is going on in China, and they are 180 degrees different in interpretation than yours.

In any case, I don’t want to contribute to thread drift, so maybe you could start a China-Watching thread?

I’m first to admit I don’t know everthing about China and that I could learn more.

Monotreme,

No, I don’t want to start a China watching thread. But to finish what I started, again not to debate politics but as illustration of how to read Chinese media reports. (this is the second time I’m saying this. pay attention, class)

1. The Chinese people have no freedom of speech.
2. But they are resourceful and creative and there is a strong cultural tradition that even the ‘Cultural Revolution’ could not break, a reverence for ancestors or deceased elders.

Put the 2 together and what do you get?

Occasions or special commemorative dates for the dead or for ancestors are one of those lines that 50 years of Communism could not break. Such dates therefore have over the years increasingly become a legitimate and often used occasion for people to express dissent. Do you know what started the 1989 events? The death of a retired (ousted) and beloved leader. This (reverence for the dead) was/is something that carries such a strong cultural taboo that even TPTB tread very gingerly and do not dare to deny the people.

They are not cracking down on foreign media specifically. They are just on a heightened state of alert, IMHO. You know you guys have that Homeland Security color coding system that some folks find ridiculous. When an alert is raised, many things get activated, some of which may not be immediately or obviously related to the threat that triggered the alert. Sort of like increasing security at public buildings in the US when London was bombed.

The US gets on a heightened state of alert on special dates, like 911 maybe. Well, that’s what you are seeing. Its a preventive alert against possible public displays of what the people really think and feel, and want the rest of the world to know.

Anybody want to hazard an answer to my 1.0.2 question?

Surely the CIA has some idea of what is going on there. China has thoroughly penetrated the United States with its spys, spying on both commercial interests as well as governmental organizations. But that works both ways. We, The United States, have to have some idea, if not the exact idea of what is transpiring.

Medical Maven – at 11:51

All you guys out in the provinces are going to have to cool it. Those yokels you lord it over are beginning to get restive what with lead poisoning and black lung. And if you don’t stop fleecing them, taking their land, and putting your kids in charge of the local mill, we can’t begin to crank back this runaway environmental disaster that we have on our hands. (And you know what happened to the Japanese in the 90s with all of those useless overbuilt projects that generated no profitable revenue).

Good try!

Grade: B-

MM You got about half of it. There’s another half. Plus you didn’t answer the question. :-)

anon_22,

You may have to give me a dunce cap, because I’m still not buying your argument. Note, I don’t dispute your interpretaion of the Mao story. I’m sure many years of oppression result in creative and subtle ways to voice criticism of people who can have you arrested, tortured and killed without any restraint whatsoever.

However, the current draconian censorship attempts at control of the foreign press do not relate to this, IMO.

So, to be clear, I understand your argument, I just don’t buy it.

Ok, let’s put all the dots in a list for the last 3–4 months in one post and see what we really have. Dogs with rabies—100,000 where on a map? Pig death 1 million---which cities.. avian flu? large human deaths where on a map? maybe we can then see the picture.

anon_22 at 12:16-I was never good at essay questions because I always went off on my own favorite tangent. : )

You are going to have to tell me. And, by the way, thanks for the update on the new “hardened” fluwikie.

Good day, my friends. I’ve been reading but not posting on this thread for some time as I have no real veterinary background, except for a large herd of indoor domestic pets in proportion to the humans in the house.

However, in the 1980′s I was responsible for estimating and working on management of some experimental swine research farms in for North Carolina State University. These were the forerunners of the huge industrial farms that experienced MILLIONS of swine deaths in 2000 when Hurricane Floyd flooded the area, and millions of gallons of waste from the “lagoons” (where animal waste was flushed from these barns was stored to be later uses as fertilizer) washed away ad the dams breached.

China has long looked at those facilities and shared research with the staff at NC State on agricultural expansion to feed its exploding population. If anyone may know what is up in China I would look to some of the staff there as possible sources of knowledge. I long ago lost touch with any of the people there, so I would be of little help.

I did, however, study some Chinese history in college, and I see very little change from historic patterns with the events recently. China takes care of its own problems its own way, and lets the world say whatever it wants after the fact with little influence over policy. The recent “westernization” of policies was only expedient to increase trade and grow their economy. Their scientists and researchers are as world-class as anywhere, but the administration is decidedly traditional in its approaches. The recent manned space flights they accomplished used a “knock-off” of the tried and tested Russian Soyuz vehicle, and it is a prime example of China’s ability to look at a thing, take it apart, re-engineer it using their own internal resources, and produce it in mass quantities. Mistakes get made, but for the volume it is not that far from western standards.

Now, along comes SARS and H5N1 in the last 10 years. Controls on SARS were slow to start, but once the real nature was know, brutally effective. Only because of the slow start did the disease ever make it to Canada. H5N1, whether it is an bio-weapon gone bad, a vaccine turned infection, natural, or whatever, is a threat to everything China has gained in 60 years. If it breaks out pandemic THERE WILL BE NO 2008 OLYMPICS! There will be no foreign exports or increased prosperity for the China. There will be no trust in the WHO to bother placing Dr. Chan in charge. All around, China looses.

In reading John Berry’s “The Great Influenza” the last chapters noted that years after the pandemic of 1918 pigs were suddenly becoming ill with what turned out to be mutations of the virus, and there were other bursts of human cases, but none as bad ad 1918–1919. I was also struck by the last chapters on how the after effects on the infected survivors included brain and nervous disorders impairing judgment, psychosis, and depression lasting years or an entire lifetime. I

f H5N1 has in fact been circulation amongst humans for several years in remote regions of China, then seeing animal cases would dishearteningly follow that pattern. Draconian measures may be the only method to contain an outbreak. As we are now seeing Tamiflu resistance and low instances of sub-clinical cases in Vietnam and Thailand it is equally disturbing not to consider such measures with the consideration of over 1 Billion people balanced against a few thousand that the measures may be taken against. I do not advocate such things, but point this out only to see a bigger picture in the traditional Chinese way of managing a huge population.

Keep watching, keep listening, and since we cannot see through the smoke any longer watch the edges for indicators. Someone made note of satellite images of light patterns in the past few days, and the idea was dismissed pretty well. I say it may have merit, not because turning off the power would contain the population, but it would stop most electronic media that could be monitored, and using HAM radio would only let military enforcement pinpoint transmitters if they are used. There are so many things about this that seem so crazy individually, but together seem to form the frame around this puzzle. Some days I wish I would wake up and find it has all been some insane dream as well.

anonymouse 11:47…Well, I guess then we are ahead of the wave. How do you like it? Kind of fun isn’t it? /:0)

Ruth. You are absolutely right…we need Okieman to do another of his maps…his map on Indonesia removed most conceptual problems I was having with that outbreak.

Medical Maven. I’m thinking that you had the opposite problem to me…although I chose science partly because there are no essays. I had trouble getting up to the number of words required and my bet is that you had trouble keeping your essays down to the required length.

I like pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.

    Sir Winston Churchill (1874 - 1965)

H5N1 may treat us as equals as well.

Maybe then we could see a pattern, movement or overlapping areas of disease. Too many undiagnosed or questionable ones to ignore.

anon_22 – at 11:31

I didn’t read all the thread, but do you mean something like “extremely rare article by Mao’s surviving son, Anqing, headlined “Memories of my father”.”

- Survived alive from where? From his father and the revolution?

“It praised Mao as a selfless leader who hated corruption and refused to promote his relatives to positions of power.”

- MAo put Anqing aside and now the Party is using the son as an example oh Mao being an “uncorrupt” leader?

Don’t know a lot about Chinese history, so sorry if totally off topic…

Medical Maven – at 12:22

…by the way, thanks for the update on the new “hardened” fluwikie.

I missed this. What thread is it on?

Thanks

Well, Monotreme, for what it’s worth. You don’t have to buy it. But let me say this, I defer to you on US politics. :-)

OK, answer to my question and we can close this subject:

Actually there are quite a few significant things from that Times quote. The single most important one is the fact that the piece was in the People’s Daily. This paper is more important as the Party mouthpiece than the government mouthpiece. Everything written in such a context and such an occasion is designed to send a message out. MM got one piece of that message, to provincial officials to get their act together. But there are 2 more important messages: one to the people, to appease them and say look, we know your grievances, we’re working on it. Whether they believe them or not is of course a different story.

The other one, which is not quite a message, but more like a sign that if you are the analyst you would know to look for. China is no different from other countries. Even though it is a one Party state, inside the Party there is always going to be split loyalties, different people supporting different leaders. Currently we would say broadly there are the so-called ‘reformers’ and ‘Leftist’. The top say 50–100 officials/party functionaries probably cannot survive without pledging themselves to one or the other side. This internal power struggle is ongoing, just like any other country. But because it is completely opague, how do you know what’s going on? Or how do insiders tell the outside world what’s going on?

It’s very easy to figure out. Those who contol the ‘People’s Daily’ frontpage editorial are on top.

What about Mao’s son? What is the significance of that? (‘That’ being using him, far more than the content of what he is supposed to have written.) Remember that this is a completely apolitical figure, kept away until needed and then trotted out for show. What he symbolizes is the equivalent of the Royal Family, the lineage, the dynasty. Even though the (biological) dynasty is finished, the ideological dynasty is ongoing.

Such a phenomenon of a quasi- royal family is not unusual in Asian politics. Just look at the various dynasties, eg India - they are trying so hard to milk the Ghandi-Nehru lineage that they were for a time willing to put the Italian widow of the family as head of the party, Indonesia, the previous president Megawati Sukarnoputri, completely useless woman, was only there because she is Sukarno’s daughter (BTW Sukarnoputri is not her family name, she uses it cos it means ‘daughter of Sukarno’). So these figures are puppets, to be used when needed.

There are lots of places in China where Chinese leaders are literally talked of as emperors. In Imperial times, Emperor’s edicts are to be obeyed absolutely. That’s all gone, of course, but the powerful archetype still exists. The symbology of Mao’s son is in the representation of the legitimacy of the hardliners. The quasi-imperial lineage of those leaders in the Party who oppose ‘reforms’.

BTW such figures can sometimes be rallying points that people look to for stability at turbulent times, like Prince Sihanouk of Cambodia.

So the Times quote tells me this:

That currently in the ongoing struggle for supremacy, and the real and important ideological debates going on (pragmatist vs purist), the hardliners are either on top, or the ‘refomers’ have conceded that position temporarily for the sake of stability, to carry over this significant date. Recent events tell me that the truth is probably somewhere in between those 2 positions, more on the first one.

Now back to H5N1. Apologies to those not interested. Anybody who wants to carry on this conversation can email me, although I will warn you that I will exercise some discretion in responding, cos I’m rather floored at the moment, too many things to do.

anon_22 – at 12:49

I defer to you on US politics

Hmmm, if you can get the other Mods to agree to this, they can hand over the keys to their Blogs tommorrow ;-)

That currently in the ongoing struggle for supremacy, and the real and important ideological debates going on (pragmatist vs purist), the hardliners are either on top, or the ‘refomers’ have conceded that position temporarily for the sake of stability, to carry over this significant date. Recent events tell me that the truth is probably somewhere in between those 2 positions, more on the first one.

I don’t dispute this. What I dispute is that this is the reason for the crackdown on the foreign press.

Hey, what about the newly hardened Flu Wiki? I don’t know anything about this, but would like to.

TRay75 – at 12:28 wrote:

“In reading John Berry’s “The Great Influenza” the last chapters noted that years after the pandemic of 1918 pigs were suddenly becoming ill with what turned out to be mutations of the virus, and there were other bursts of human cases, but none as bad ad 1918–1919.”

In 1918 a mid-west veterinarian was alarmed by the amount of sick and dying swine he was seeing. He was concerned about this pork being shipped to U.S. army camps. The rest is history. The “Great Influenza”, was also referred to as “Swine Flu”. We should learn from history.

TRay75,

“I did, however, study some Chinese history in college, and I see very little change from historic patterns with the events recently. China takes care of its own problems its own way, and lets the world say whatever it wants after the fact with little influence over policy. The recent “westernization” of policies was only expedient to increase trade and grow their economy. Their scientists and researchers are as world-class as anywhere, but the administration is decidedly traditional in its approaches. The recent manned space flights they accomplished used a “knock-off” of the tried and tested Russian Soyuz vehicle, and it is a prime example of China’s ability to look at a thing, take it apart, re-engineer it using their own internal resources, and produce it in mass quantities. Mistakes get made, but for the volume it is not that far from western standards.

“Now, along comes SARS and H5N1 in the last 10 years. Controls on SARS were slow to start, but once the real nature was know, brutally effective. Only because of the slow start did the disease ever make it to Canada. H5N1, whether it is an bio-weapon gone bad, a vaccine turned infection, natural, or whatever, is a threat to everything China has gained in 60 years. If it breaks out pandemic THERE WILL BE NO 2008 OLYMPICS! There will be no foreign exports or increased prosperity for the China. There will be no trust in the WHO to bother placing Dr. Chan in charge. All around, China looses.”

BRAVO! You’ve really put your finger on it. The best analysis I’ve seen for, erh, a little while. :-) Thank you!

However, (you knew there has to be a however), the ‘tradionalist’ approach to politics is congenital, knee-jerk instinctive, and hard to change.

They didn’t get it with SARS. They still don’t get it with H5N1. IMO. Not in the political sense, even though they might have gotten most of the science and health side and are working very hard on it. Witness the tremendous vaccine efforts. But they have not classified it as a systemic, infrastructure, and therefore political survival problem yet. At least not enough for crackdowns and what-have-you. They haven’t connected the dots yet.

Which puts them in about the same place as every other government on the planet, IMHO.

And now in China they are killing a *lot* of pigs for dinner?

Monotreme-The update on the coming, new version of fluwikie is on the “Ask Questions of the Moderators” thread.

Thanks, MM.

I just read another, more complete version of that news about China clamping down on the news flow. It is draconian and total and excludes anything that hurts their interests---short-term, long-term, economic, political, national, (you name it). And any news organization (worldwide) that defiies them in this edict gets blackballed. This is BIG NEWS.

Medical Maven, would you share that source, please?

Unless there is a historical parallel in the depth of the Chinese media blackout, I would tend to think that there is an exceptionally serious event occuring in China that MUST BE covered up/treated? and kept hidden from the outside. At all costs.

Klatu – at 13:02

“In 1918 a mid-west veterinarian was alarmed by the amount of sick and dying swine he was seeing. He was concerned about this pork being shipped to U.S. army camps. The rest is history. The “Great Influenza”, was also referred to as “Swine Flu”. We should learn from history.”

Thank you. I was just going to move on to that subject.

In reviewing papers to write up the Questions for Dr Taubenberger thread, I went through his review of the pig issue. The references are in his The origin of the 1918 pandemic influenza virus: a continuing enigma paper. This is similar to my post on that link but I’m adding excerpts here for a more detailed discussion.

Historical records show numerous accounts of outbreaks of flu in pigs at around the same time as the human pandemic. The question then becomes, did the virus pass from pigs to humans? Or from humans to pigs?

Veterinary records before 1918 appear to have no mention of any flu-like illness. So it is likely that the outbreak in pigs at least did not precede the human pandemic.

From the above link: “Interestingly, an avian H1N1 lineage has become established in European swine in the last 20 years, providing a model for the evolution of avian viruses in pigs. As noted earlier, the 1918 HA1 sequence had many more amino acid differences from avian sequences than did the 1957 and 1968 pandemic strains but very few of these change were in antigenic sites, suggesting that the 1918 HA had not been subjected to significant selective pressure before emerging as a pandemic. In phylogenetic analyses, the 1918 HA is always placed in the mammalian clade.

“It would be interesting to note whether, at some point in the evolution of an avian H1N1 lineage in European pigs, a similar degree of divergence from the avian clade would be found. The earliest avian-like H1N1 strains were isolated from swine in Northern Europe in 1979 and 1980. A/swine/Arnsberg/6554/79 has 12 amino acid differences from the avian consensus sequence and A/Swine/Netherlands/3/80 has seven differences. In both cases, three of the differences are in antigenic sites.

“In contrast, the 1918 HA has 28 amino acid differences from the avian consensus sequence, of which four are in antigenic sites. The latest avian-like H1N1 isolated from swine in Europe from which sequence is available, A/swine/Belgium/117/96, has 17 differences from the avian consensus sequence, of which five are in antigenic sites. Furthermore, phylogenetic analyses place even A/swine/Belgium/117/96 in the avian clade. Thus, it appears that even 20 years of evolution in swine has not resulted in the number of changes from the avian consensus sequence exhibited by the 1918 pandemic strain.”

In addition, let’s look at the proposed mechanism of the pig as the ‘mixing vessel’, where a human adapted strain picks up avian or swine surface proteins to which humans have no immunity, thereby causing a pandemic. If that is the mechanism, we should be able to find swine samples that have gene segments from human, avian, and/or swine, which in fact happens. But we should also be able to isolate in human samples with human core proteins that have picked up avian and/or swine surface antigens while circulating in the pig.

Let me quote another excerpt:

“Viruses have been detected in swine in which the avian-derived H1 and N1 have been replaced by reassortment with the H3 and N2 HA and NA segments circulating concurrently in humans (Castrucci et al., 1993; Claas et al., 1994; Marozin et al., 2002). However, reassortant strains with the avian-derived H1 and N1 along with human-adapted core protein segments have not been found. Such reassortant strains would be antigentically novel and probably capable of effective replication in humans and, therefore, would have substantial pandemic potential.

“Similarly, a number of triple reassortant strains, which include gene segments of swine, human and avian origin, have been isolated recently from pigs in the USA. Several reassortant viruses bearing human HA and NA segments have been isolated from swine but, as yet, no viruses with swine or avian surface proteins and human internal protein segments have been detected (Zhou et al., 2000; Marozin et al., 2002; Olsen, 2002).”

Might this be the beginning of the end of the pig-as-mixing-vessel theory?

Z- MrWhite42 at 12:49 on the Sept 10th News thread has pretty much the same information that I read elsewhere except the information on punishments for transgressions by foreign news organizations is not elaborated on in that article as in the one that I read.

Grace RN-If the Chinese mean what they say here, this will be a big step backward for them. I know their tourist industry has to have been hurting of late with all of the terrible environmental news that has been coming out on a daily basis. I don’t shock easily. But the last three months of that news has done it. You put it all together and you have a building (almost here) environmental apocalypse. And that ain’t no exaggeration.

Medical Maven – at 13:20

I just read another, more complete version of that news about China clamping down on the news flow. It is draconian and total and excludes anything that hurts their interests---short-term, long-term, economic, political, national, (you name it). And any news organization (worldwide) that defiies them in this edict gets blackballed. This is BIG NEWS.

Grace RN – at 13:32

Unless there is a historical parallel in the depth of the Chinese media blackout, I would tend to think that there is an exceptionally serious event occuring in China that MUST BE covered up/treated? and kept hidden from the outside. At all costs.

I agree completely.

anon_22 at 13:42 - Can you summarize, in layman’s terms?

The summary is in the Question for Dr Taubenberger thread, my post at 21:33 the pigs section.

Plus an additional point which I will summarise here:

In order to understand this, I will (vastly) simplifly several points:

• Flu viruses have internal or core proteins and surface proteins.
• The surface proteins HA and NA determine immune response.
• The core proteins are more responsible for causing disease.

Much of current influenza science has been built on this one theory (ie unproven) that goes like this:

• Birds and humans have different receptor binding sites for flu viruses. Avian viruses generally do not infect humans easily cos we have the (for them) wrong receptors.
• pigs have receptor binding sites for both avian and human viruses. Therefore they can be infected by both types.
• Pigs that are infected simultaneously by both avian and human strains can act as ‘mixing vessels’ where these strains swap gene segments, and form a new virus.

If this theory is correct, we should be able to see a variety of such ‘hybrid’ viruses from isolates over the years.

Such ‘hybrids’ can be any combination, in theory. So there should be a combination where you get a virus with core proteins purely from one species A, (birds, swine, human) and surface proteins of a different species B. A virus of that combination, if it can survive, will theoretically be able to infect every new host of species A, since they will have no resistance to the surface proteins, while being able to cause disease, cos of the retention of the core proteins from A.

AND, in theory, this should work in all the different combinations, eg (A=avian B=human), (A=swine B=avian), (A=human B=avian) and so on. We should be able to find them in isolates collected over the years.

Here’s the crunch point:

Whereas scientists have indeed found samples isolated from swine with avian core and human surface proteins (A=avian B=human), and various combinations of human, avian and swine, there have been no isolates with this combination (A=human B=avian/swine), which would have been the perfect pandemic virus.

This asymmetry is odd.

It could be that this asymmetry is simply due to the small sample size or chance, but it could equally be that the original theory is somehow not quite right.

NB. The 1957 pandemic was caused by H1N1 from 1918 acquiring 2 surface proteins together with one internal protein PB1. The 1968 pandemic was caused by this 1957 virus acquiring another new HA together with another PB1.

anon_22 – at 13:42 wrote:

“Might this be the beginning of the end of the pig-as-mixing-vessel theory?”

Maybe, maybe not…..

“In 1976, due to an outbreak of influenza at Fort Dix, New Jersey, the United States set a precedent in immunology by attempting to vaccinate the entire population of the country against the possibility of a swine-type Influenza A epidemic. “

The biological similarity between the influenza at Fort Dix and the Swine Flu of 1918 was one of the biggest factors in determining the course of action to be taken at that point (Swine Flu Vaccine) .

I think the Chinese are as capable to study our history as we are theirs.

http://www.haverford.edu/biology/edwards/disease/viral_essays/warnervirus.htm

IMPORTANT CORRECTION to my 13:42 post

But we should also be able to isolate in human samples with human core proteins that have picked up avian and/or swine surface antigens while circulating in the pig.

Should have the words ‘in human’ deleted.

ie But we should also be able to isolate samples with human core proteins that have picked up avian and/or swine surface antigens while circulating in the pig.

Transmission of Influenza Viruses from Animals to People

“Pigs can be infected with both human and avian influenza viruses in addition to swine influenza viruses. Infected pigs get symptoms similar to humans, such as cough, fever, and runny nose. Because pigs are susceptible to avian, human and swine influenza viruses, they potentially may be infected with influenza viruses from different species (e.g., ducks and humans) at the same time. “

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/fluviruses.htm

Identification of Human H1N2 and Human-Swine Reassortant H1N2 and H1N1 Influenza A Viruses among Pigs in Ontario, Canada (2003 to 2005)

Since 2003, three novel genotypes of H1 influenza viruses have been recovered from Canadian pigs, including a wholly human H1N2 virus and human-swine reassortants. These isolates demonstrate that human-lineage H1N2 viruses are infectious for pigs and that viruses with a human PB1/swine PA/swine PB2 polymerase complex can replicate in pigs.

http://jcm.asm.org/cgi/content/full/44/3/1123

   Just as an aside, I would like to point out that China’s media and news and information 

restrictions are horrible, and will cause the world significant greif.

   However, something very similar is happening in the United States, with the

control of the major media sources by just a few corporations, which in turn are controlled by just a few individuals who have gone to just two or three upper tier schools, all of whom have the same people controlling their vast and influential endowment funds.

    Look to the problems faced by scientists at NASA where a non-college

degreed political appointee was ‘gatekeeper’ for most scientific publications. Look to the FDA, where political force was brought to bear by both sides in the approval of the Plan B product. Look to FEMA where Cronies and political appointments left the system broken. Heck, look at CDC.

    We in the USA are ever so close to having the same political bureaucracy controlling

scientific advancement, and even dissemination of needed information to the population.

     When China “Opened” to the west, I fear that not only did the USA have

important influence on their market system, but their government has taught our bureaucrats a thing or two about control.

     So, bash China if you must, but please keep in mind the USA needs some 

hard knocking, too! Our pig farmers have caused a lot of damage with waste overflows from their operations, little of which makes it into the main street news, and it is getting worse. Enough said. Back to lurkdom —

heddiecalifornia – at 14:57 wrote: “ Just as an aside, I would like to point out that China’s media and news and information restrictions are horrible…”

They had help.

January 2006 ( A blast from the past )

Google move ‘black day’ for China

Google’s launch of a new, self-censored search engine in China is a “black day” for freedom of expression, a leading international media watchdog says. Reporters Without Borders joined others in asking how Google could stand up for US users’ freedoms while controlling what Chinese users can search for.

The new site - Google.cn - censors itself to satisfy Beijing.

Google argues it would be more damaging to pull out of China altogether and says that in contrast to other search engines, it will inform users when access is restricted on certain search terms.” (excerpt)

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/4647398.stm

Maybe; however, I don’t think the US is the most likely breeding ground for a pandemic flu virus. The pork industry here has problems, no argument there, but I think the issue in China is of a somewhat higher magnitude.

As a non-scientific layman, this may be waaay too simplistic, however in reading all that has been written about China’s not valuing human life, I cannot help but feel that there may indeed be massive deaths of humans associated with death of the pigs only we are not hearing about it. Perhaps because pigs are an economic commodity while people are not? These thoughts just kept running through my mind as I read [and enjoyed] all the information offered in this thread. It doesn’t make sense to me that if pigs as mammals are biologically close to humans, that a significant number of humans have NOT contracted this “unknown” disease if they are near sick and dying pigs. Is it possible that it is easier for TPTB to keep the number of human deaths so totally hidden while the number of pig deaths has been able to get out? Or, put another way: “What does WHO know and when did they know it?”

China sees the press as an instrument of the state. Foreign press is therefore an instrument of a foreign state. Suppress foreign press to suppress foreign (state) intervention of it’s ‘internal affairs’.

There has been steady erosion of editorial independence in America. You can ususally tell which party a newspaper is aligned to. May be that’s why MSM has been so mum and no one dare question the lack of action on pandemic preparedness. There may not be a censor, but it’s looking like self censorship.

Klatu,

I am not talking about swine influenza viruses infecting humans.

I am talking about isolation of viruses with human internal proteins and avian or swine surface proteins.

The Fort Dix virus was a classical swine H1N1, a fully swine virus.

I am biting my tongue, and the blood is oozing. Please no more politics. What is happening in China and what is it doing and why is it doing it and what are the implications?

heddiecalifornia – at 14:57

Well put, and noted.

With the 9/11 5-year coverage MSM will not even notice what has happened in China, and all the better for the upper offices that are concerned with “fair and balanced” reporting. In the Norse tradition, I feel the wolves of winter are near, watching our lodges, no mater what banner they may fly. Or is it just we found an outlet to express our fear for that which we cannot really name. Either way, we, as a population, have limited, if any, control of our destiny in light of the present situation of technology and politics. But this thread and this wiki is about pandemic influenza, not politics. I just keep seeing John Barry’s quote “After all, it was only influenza.”

Klatu – at 14:49

From your link Identification of Human H1N2 and Human-Swine Reassortant H1N2 and H1N1 Influenza A Viruses among Pigs in Ontario, Canada (2003 to 2005)

This table shows what I mean. See the samples used in this study of viruses isolated from swines. Notice that the first one A/Swine/Ontario/52156/03 is completely human.

And then the next 2 samples have human PB1 HA and NA genes, with the rest from classical swine. (BTW This is the same pattern as the formation of the 1957 pandemic virus, where the existing H1N1 acquired avian HA NA and PB1 genes from an avian source.)

The rest are classical swine with human PB1.

So in this study we are seeing swine-human reassortants of 2 different types, plus one purely human virus, infected swines.

To repeat JKT’s point (I think I’ve got it right, God help me if I’m not :-) )

there has been no isolation of viruses from any species with human core proteins ie PB2 PB1 PA NP M NS, in combination with avian or swine HA + NA

Which in itself doesn’t prove anything, but is decidedly odd.

I’m beginning to feel a tiny bit of what Osterholm meant when he said, “the more I know, the more I realize what I don’t know.”

I don’t know, that PB1 looks more and more like the suspect for, well, maybe not everything…..

highflyer at curevents:
The pigs? Whatever it is we might or might not find out. I see no immidiate danger in that, there are enough animals infected and pigs might not be needed as a mixing vessel and the high letality in pigs is not needed either. If (what I consider highly unlikely) thats indeed a mutated H5N1 - than thats a huge problem. Its just not more likely than any other or new disease. For the moment, its irrelevant for the pandemic.

I promised to not go back to politics, but I need to point out one thing, for Monotreme.

They are not celebrating Mao’s birthday. They are commemorating the 30th anniversary of his death.

Big difference! :-)

Every time I’m at the check out stand in the grocery store, I see yet another magazine cover with Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie — if not several. I believe these sell so very well because people like to read about someone else’s troubles (and if they are rich and beautiful, then how more satisfying to know they struggle too). So the article by Chairman Mao’s son would be, to me, a chance to read about someone else’s struggles. It is entertainment, nothing more.

anon-22 is going to give me an F - ‘cause I don’t know diddly squat about China : )

For those interested in a “big picture” view of China’s press control, it is worth reading the China annual reports back to 2003 (home page to access other years). Reporters Without Borders

Viewing the anniversary of Mao’s death as a reason for the current crackdown on the foreign press is too narrrow, IMO, and must be considered as just one data point in the context of years of ongoing repression.

What is most relevant to our discussion at Flu Wiki is the impact of China’s press control on infectious disease reporting by the internal press as well as the foreign press. It is the increased repression/control of infectious disease reporting as a subset of censorship in China that is most alarming (given our focus). The crackdown has been relentless.

So, Monotreme, do you think it is worth creating a thread to document and track what we know about China’s control and censorship of infectious disease reporting?

Olymom – at 16:22 Every time I’m at the check out stand in the grocery store, I see yet another magazine cover with Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie — if not several. I believe these sell so very well because people like to read about someone else’s troubles (and if they are rich and beautiful, then how more satisfying to know they struggle too). So the article by Chairman Mao’s son would be, to me, a chance to read about someone else’s struggles. It is entertainment, nothing more.

anon-22 is going to give me an F - ‘cause I don’t know diddly squat about China : )

LOL

I guess you don’t. Tell you what, I give you a C+ for effort, if you will buy me the next episode of that Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie gossip magazine…..

You want the Monday issue, the Tuesday issue, the Wednesday issue . . . ? The a.m. or p.m. version?

Well, perhaps if you want a B-…. :-)

anonymouse. I think you missed the point a bit…the pigs may or may not be a mixing vessel…I think they are and our view is tunnel visioned…we assume the future is the past which is just as bad as saying the past is not our future…pigs are a potential mixing vessel whether we want them to be or not…and that means one more variable is out of control…and just because a certain thing did not happen in the past does not mean that H5N1 might find a completely different way to use pigs in the future.

The second issue is that in the past pigs were not infected…which means this is another demonstration of rapid adaption to a mammalian species…pigs are one step removed from us…so even if the virus doesn’t use the pigs the virus has made a significant jump closer to us…

…if it goes in pigs the potential template is too large not to have future influences directly on our collective futures.

I would like to raise one other point…each viral infection produces billions upon billions of individual replications…

…so in a population there are an infinite numbers of mutations…mutations of every concievable type.

Thle thing is that human mutations in viruses infecting avian species may not catch on and visa versa…the bottom line is that in my opinion, the pandemic virus with all required mutations is being produced repeatedly…it’s just the environment hasn’t been right with the confluence of variables to allow it to take off…pigs offer a launching pad!!

klatu,anon_22, that’s the paper where they strangely ignore the obvious recombinations and large regions of identity in some genes. One has to wonder why.

Olymom “diddly squat” I didn’t know you were Canadian. /:0)

Nightowl – at 16:29

What is most relevant to our discussion at Flu Wiki is the impact of China’s press control on infectious disease reporting by the internal press as well as the foreign press. It is the increased repression/control of infectious disease reporting as a subset of censorship in China that is most alarming (given our focus). The crackdown has been relentless.

So, Monotreme, do you think it is worth creating a thread to document and track what we know about China’s control and censorship of infectious disease reporting?

Great idea! Could you start it? I suspect you’ve got your references better orgainzed than mine.

Monotreme - Ok, though ‘organized’ is stretching it. LOL I’ll try to put it up sometime today.

Olymom – at 16:22

I tried to post before, but Flu Wiki ate my homework. This is a busy thread!

anon_22 might give you a C, but I’d give you an A.

I know many Chinese, some who have just arrived. None of them give two hoots about Mao, his death day or anything else about him. They just want to be rich and famous. Like everyone else I know. And after 2 years here, they read about Brad and Angela, too. [They also hate cheese when they arrive, but are gobbling down pizza 2 years later. I don’t know if the two behaviours are related. ;-)]

I don’t disagree with anon_22′s account of internal communist politics. I’m sure there are factions and they send each other subtle messages.

But I don’t think that has anything to do with the crack down on the foreign press.

Thanks Nightowl.

what we know about China’s control and censorship of infectious disease reporting

From http://www.cecc.gov/pages/virtualAcad/exp/expsars.php:

In April 2003, authorities in Beijing arrested a person for sending messages saying that an “undiagnosed contagious disease was spreading in Beijing,” on the grounds that he was spreading rumors and that “Beijing had never had the spread of any `mysterious illness.’”
In April 2003, two editors at Xinhua were fired for publishing a document about SARS.
In April 2003, Chinese authorities removed the editor-in-chief of Southern Weekend, a publication known for addressing politically sensitive topics, and replaced him with Zhang Dongming, a former Director of News Media at the Propaganda Department in Guangdong, who some observers in China consider partly responsible for the initial SARS cover-up.
In May 2003, China blacked out a CNN interview that was critical of the government’s handling of the SARS crisis.
In June 2003, Chinese authorities blocked distribution of an issue of Caijing magazine that discussed the government’s handling of the SARS crisis. Although it was reported that Caijing editors claimed that the failure to distribute the issue was the result of logistical problems, censors repeatedly blocked attempts by Commission staff to post questions such as “Has Caijing been censored?” on government-controlled Internet bulletin boards.
In July 2003, the Propaganda Department issued a notice to at least one television station prohibiting it from inviting academics to discuss the government’s handling of the SARS crisis.

None of them give two hoots about Mao

Monotreme,

you are absolutely right. And you are getting there.

The point is not whether peope care about Mao. The point is that this is an undeniable excuse to show dissent.

Medical Maven – at 15:34 I am biting my tongue, and the blood is oozing. Please no more politics. What is happening in China and what is it doing and why is it doing it and what are the implications?

Ditto MM…..I came here from the Flu Clinic because of all the political discussion wrapped in the influenza threads….I saw little of that here till recently.

Monotreme,

“But I don’t think that has anything to do with the crack down on the foreign press.”

There is a significant mainstream opinion (and I’m not saying whether they are right or wrong, just reporting here) in some circles that said 1989 would have been different if it wasn’t for all that foreign press covering the Gorbachev visit.

Countries can do whatever they want to do, easier, more efficiently, if there are fewer people “snooping”.

Then it works the other way too, foreign journalists convey information about the outside, including not just news, but opinions. Also some of the foreign journalists covering China can be very politically astute, some maybe even politically active, to the point where sometimes the line between reportage and activism become blurred.

Just giving you reasons why governments get paranoid, not that I agree with that….

MAinVA – at 15:22 wrote:

“What does WHO know and when did they know it?”

When WHO and the country in question decide to tell us.

The politics bit is covered here only because of the issue of openness being repeatedly raised. We’re not going to discuss anything else other than that which is directly related to pandemic flu.

anon_22 – at 17:04

Countries can do whatever they want to do, easier, more efficiently, if there are fewer people “snooping”.

No argument there. The question is what is China paranoid about, dangerous uncontrolled infectious diseases or Mao’s death day reporting?

Mono,

The second one, hands down.

IMHO.

anon_22 – at 17:14

The first one, IMHO.

Time will tell.

So yeah, just cos some folks are worried, doesn’t mean that they are worried about the same things as you or I, you know.

“Time will tell.”

Which brings us back to the big question: How Much time?

nawty

Which brings us back to the big question: How Much time?

Which brings us back to the big question of this thread: How significant are pigs in the grand scheme of things, ie evolution of a human pandemic virus?

I’m getting more confused…

anon_22 – at 16:55

Did you mean deniable dissent? Officially sanctioned venting mechanism?

If China is so fragile, it would be impossible to contain any H5N1.

LOL: if china is so fragile, it would not be a very useful container.

If China is so fragile, it would be impossible to contain any H5N1.

Since most of us here agree that containment is a pipe dream, isn’t that a moot point?

anon_22 – at 17:28

Pre-pandemic containment may slow down virus progression and buy more time.

“Which brings us back to the big question of this thread: How significant are pigs in the grand scheme of things, ie evolution of a human pandemic virus?”

I believe the answer to yours will be the answer to mine.

nawty

http://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_international/154594.html

Beijing’s Foreign Ministry denies report of N. Korean leader’s Chinese trip

North Korea has blockaded all roads leading to a city bordering China, a source said Tuesday, suggesting the communist state’s reclusive leader Kim Jong-il may be preparing a trip to China, but a spokesman for China’s Foreign Ministry dismissed reports of his imminent trip. <snip> Kim rarely travels abroad, but has occasionally visited longtime allies China and Russia. When he traveled to China in January, media organizations in North Korea and China imposed a news blackout on the trip and confirmed it only after Kim returned home.

Shenyang/Beijing, Sept. 5 (Yonhap News)

Perhaps why the news blackout?

nawty

How significant are pigs in the grand scheme of things, ie evolution of a human pandemic virus?”

I have argued that based on the changes in H5N1 sequence and it’s changes in pathology, that it is becoming more adapted to mammals. I have futher argued that this means it is under selection in mammals. This would imply the existence of a mammalian reservoir as I have argued in this thread: Final Adaptation of H5N1 to Humans Role of Mammalian Reservoirs.

Pigs are an excellent candidate for a mammalian reservoir. There may be others.

The strange way this pig disease is being handled raises my suspicions, as did the retractions of pig sequences, the odd nature of the sequences, and the attempts to prevent publication of the paper regarding the early infection of Shih the soldier.

This is all circumstantial evidence, at this point. Hopefully, we’ll get more information soon.

I would agree with Tom DVM at 16:41, and I would add that the pig population in China has to be mighty stressed, regardless of what mix of viruses and/or bacteria are assailing them. Severely stressed organisms in close proximity to H5N1 and ducks and chickens and us are perfect vessels for adaptation. And as Tom has said many times pigs aren’t just another cog on the way to our turf.

We occupy the same turf. Oink.

Closed for length and continued at Part 4

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