Enough stuff is going on in India that I thought a thread to discuss the issues would be appropriate.
Specifically
India
Delhi dangerously close to dengue epidemic
New Delhi, October 1, 2006
Delhi is not in the grip of a dengue epidemic. But if the situation does not improve in another couple of days, it will be.
“If the spread of the outbreak is not contained by Tuesday, we will declare an epidemic,” said Delhi health minister Yoganand Shastri on Sunday even as the government constituted a special task force to assist the Municipal Corporation of Delhi in containing the disease, which has claimed 11 lives in the capital.
http://www.centralchronicle.com/20061002/0210102.htm
Kids down with pneumonia
Chronicle News Service Raisen, Oct 1: As the weather is changing so children are suffering from pneumonia and half a dozen children have died till now at pediatric ward in the district hospital.
However, there are only 16 beds at the pediatric ward but on Sunday 45 children have been admitted in this ward. There were 25 children who were found affected with pneumonia. These children are being treated with nabulizer machine giving them steam treatment. The patients have also been admitted in Dhanvantari Dhamashala. The children who have been admitted earlier not being discharged as their treatment is going on. Every day 5–6 new patients are being admitted here
Also from todays news by DennisC
LINK
Even as the Kerala toll of those dying of fever, believed to be symptoms of chikungunya, is steadily rising, union Health Minister Anbumani Ramadoss says the cause of death is not chikungunya.
Addressing a press conference after visiting two hospitals in the district, he said the deaths were not due to chikungunya.
When media persons persisted that the deaths were due to chikungunya, Ramdoss said agitatedly: ‘Are you people experts in diagnosis? I am saying this because this is the opinion of experts. The real cause of deaths would be clear in the next few days.’
He even threatened to walk out of the press conference.
‘The centre would extend all help. Mosquito nets, testing kits and other essential items will be distributed in the affected areas,’ Ramdoss said.
So far, 89 people have died of the dreaded fever in the state.
Seventy percent of the patients who have died are above 65 years and hence it is believed that the cause of death is not chikungunya.
The disease was first detected in the state July 27 and about 100,000 people have been affected so far.
The coastal districts of Alappuzha, Ernakulam, Kottayam, Kollam are the worst hit. The dreaded fever has also been reported from Thiruvananthapuram.
Former state law minister and senior opposition leader K.M. Mani told reporters: ‘The reality is this is chikungunya. How else would 89 people die?’ asked Mani.
For those who are not well-versed in international geography, please see
https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/in.html
One item that may be of special significance regarding influenza is:
“Border countries: Bangladesh 4,053 km, Bhutan 605 km, Burma 1,463 km, China 3,380 km, Nepal 1,690 km, Pakistan 2,912 km.”
Hmmm… That fever has a very low mortality rate if 100,000 were infected…only .08% or so… but the Dr. never said all 100,000 cases state by the reporters were not Chikungunya… He only said the DEATHS were not caused by it…Reporter may be lumping all known chikungunya cases or even all fever related cases into that number… This could be something to watch
If (as one line above indicated) 70% of the deaths are of patients over 65, that doesn’t sound like the h5n1 in Indonesia and elsewhere, where it seems to target kids and young adults. Or am I missing something?
Regardless, of course, this is a terrible development for India. And multiple diseases going around is not good, and h5n1 patients might be missed among the masses, etc.
WildBill – at 20:06 I was very upset with the Kids with the “pneumonia” and “half a dozen children have died” with “Every day 5–6 new patients are being admitted”
This is enought to take my PPF from zero to one. And for me that is huge.
Enough stuff is going on in India that I thought a thread to discuss the issues would be appropriate.
Specifically
India
Delhi dangerously close to dengue epidemic
I cut & pasted this (below) from the Indonesia thread, interesing!
Akhira, who died around June 24th was diagnosed with Dengue, but was then confirmed positive BF 2 months later (on Sept 6th)
Five die of encephalitis in Uttar Pradesh ,India, Dengue spreads.In Vietnam , two children died of encephalitis and were later found to be infected with the avian virus, according to a report in the New England Journal of Medicine.80 new cases of dengue were detected in the past 24 hours in Uttar Pradesh.70 new cases were found in Delhi. 26 of the sick are from the AIIMS Medical college and include students and medical staff.College campuses would be a known hotzone for the avian flu.All this came from the health section of indiaenews.com
More on what the health minister said at the news conference.”The minister said he was awaiting the reports of the experts from WHO and central institutes who were in Kerala.The health minister has said that the 81 deaths were not caused from chikungunya.In addition he stated’My experts say people do not generally die of chikungunya.’Sorry still am not computer able. I found this at www.keralanext.com/news. I think this could be something.Could someone with a brain please post more info on this?Thanks to all the great minds and brave hearts of this wonderful site.
DennisC – at 10:18 on Oct. 4 posted this in the Rumors thread: We have talked about the pig deaths in China. It looks like it is starting in S. India.
“Thiruvananthapuram, July 5 (IANS) Kerala’s Animal Husbandry Minister C. Divakaran Wednesday confirmed that pig fever had been diagnosed and was the cause of death of pigs at a private farm in Wayanad.This is believed to be the first reported case of the disease in the country.”
This is the same area where people are dying now. I’m with you witness, this is something strange. Does pig fever cause death in humans? Didn’t they suspect that pigs were the vector for the 1918 flu?
I have been watching the dengue numbers and Chikungunya numbers as an amateur for about a year or so now. Its hard telling from the reports out today and yesterday if the Dengue deaths in India are valid. “More than 41 people have died so far and about 680 people have been infected by the dreaded virus (Dengue) in New Delhi.” http://www.timesnow.tv/articleshow/2111613.cms
If the report is accurate that would make the kill rate nearly 7% (CFR) where the usual number is roughly %1 to 2% at worst for Dengue hemmoragic fever. Something is not right…
The real news in India is that Chikungunya has killed 81 people. There is bickering again in the state media between offiicaials and doctors since Chik’ rarely ever kills. I do not put much stock in a couple of reports but the trend is outright scarey over the last several weeks. I’d wager H5N1 is mixed in both the Dengue and Chik’ fatalities, but India does not want to expose the information. There are lots on links in the press if you google news with Chikungunya or Dengue.
I am also one of those that think this fall and winter could bring the pandemic and it would not surprise me if it started in India. Did we not see the picture with 2 very tired lab workers (only 2 in all of Inida) in a shack that represented Indias capacity to test for bird flu…it might have been another country, but I am almost certain it was India.
The number for the disease death toll that is not suppose to kill (chikungunya) continue moving up today to 91 in India. http://www.hindustantimes.com/news/181_1815229,000900020003.htm Is it me, or is something really wrong here… It might be that the authrorities do not have their storty straight but I reject the idea that India’s medical skills are that poor—lacking resources I’ll beleive but not simple intelligence for a diagnosis based on clinical information. Maybe it’s called Chikungunya until another name but flu can be found.
The health minister has stated publicly that this is not chikungunya,but the news stories insist on calling it that. They have called in the WHO.Now why would they do that?These 91 deaths have come in just the last month.The examiner at www.examiner.com is reporting that some 40,000 people were showing symptoms of the disease and thousands have been hospitalized. (This is just in one district!)They have now officially declared an epidemic.This is in addition to the dengue fever epidemic declared this past week.Plus children with pneumonia and enceplalitis cases rising. At one hospital a makeshift ward was set up in a hallway to deal with hundreds of dengue fever patients.Seems obvious.
Thank you, witness. Here is more.
Govt describes chikungunya as ‘epidemic’
Alapuzha (Kerala), Oct 6: The government today described the spread of chikungunya in Kerala as “epidemic outbreak” and underlined the need for preventive measures to contain the disease, which has claimed 81 lives so far in the state.
“This is the epidemic outbreak of chikungunya and the fever incidence is very high. We have to take effective preventive measures in order to contain the epidemic outbreak,” said P L Joshi, Director of National Vector Borne Disease Control Program.
Asked about the deaths, reported to have occurred due to the disease, he said “a team is investigating the deaths reported by the state and once they come out with the report, we will convey to the state accordingly. [snip]
From The Hindu, Oct. 8
It’s not an epidemic, says Government
…Till date, 3,331 cases of dengue with 48 deaths and 1,533 cases of chikungunya have been reported from across the country. Kerala is an area of concern because it has recorded a high incidence of both dengue and chikungunya. Delhi tops the dengue list with 825 cases and 21deaths, followed by Kerala which has reported 713 cases and four deaths. Gujarat has recorded 424 cases and three deaths, Rajasthan 326 cases and eight deaths, and West Bengal 314 cases and three deaths.
As for chikungunya, a total of 1,299,183 suspected cases have been reported from 10 States and Union Territories. Of the 13,568 samples sent to the National Institute of Virology in Pune and the National Institute of Communicable Diseases in Delhi, 1,533 have tested positive. Andhra Pradesh has reported the highest number of suspected cases at 77,373 but Maharashtra tops the list of confirmed cases at 679. Karnataka comes second with 294 confirmed cases and Andhra third with 248. Kerala, as of date, has 33 confirmed cases, according to data compiled by the National Vector Borne Disease Control Programme.
About the chikungunya deaths claimed by the Kerala Government, Mr. Hota said knowledge about this disease was sketchy and the help of the World Health Organisation had been sought in understanding it. WHO has confirmed that this disease does not cause death, he said. [snip]
From same news source, Oct. 8
Delhi still in dengue’s grip, 3 more die
NEW DELHI: After a day’s respite, the death toll in the dengue outbreak in the capital rose to 21…
The city hospitals continued to admit dengue afflicted patients. Eighty new cases reported for admission, taking the number of registered cases to 825. Several cases remain unreported as patients are also taken to private hospitals.
(According to PTI, dengue has spread to 18 States, claiming 47 lives and afflicting 3,331 people.)…
With the large influx of `suspected’ dengue cases, the medical infrastructure in AIIMS has been strained. “We are taking in only emergency patients as the hospital is struggling to keep pace with the load. Only those who need emergency medical attention are being admitted. There is a manpower and resource crunch as other hospitals continue to refer dengue patients to us,” an AIIMS official said.
Adding to the dengue panic, three out of 28 samples taken from Delhi tested positive for chikungunya, the Union Health Ministry said. All three patients have a history of travelling to places where chikungunya is rampant, a Ministry official said. [snip]
From Times of India, Oct. 7
Chikungunya is now an epidemic
NEW DELHI: India, which declared chikungunya an epidemic on Friday, has been hit by the African strain of the virus.
The National Institute of Virology, Pune, completed molecular sequencing of the virus and found that the strain had high transmissibility and infects humans at a faster pace…
“Earlier, outbreaks of chikungunya used to be localised and died down faster because the Asian strain used to be weak. This year, we have been hit by the more virulent African strain that has come from Madagascar.
It infects faster and will cause a huge number of cases. That’s why this year, we are getting reports of the disease in village after village, town after town.
The African strain, isolated from the viruses found in Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Rajasthan and Tamil Nadu, is highly pathogenic. That’s why the outbreaks are widespread,” NIV director A C Mishra told TOI.
According to Dr P L Joshi, India’s National Vector-Borne Disease Control Programme director, India this year reported over 12 lakh Chikungunya cases, the worst affected states being Karnataka, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Kerala. [snip]
Comment
This group of articles collective seem to indicate that there may be two epidemics. The primary problem in New Dehli is dengue; but that the chikungunya virus is affecting other areas of India. Chik appears to be generating more serious illness, and more quickly. The assessment of WHO that it does not cause death may be outdated…
Well we know that they are not testing for H5N1 because India is Bird Flu free. The India government has said so and we can trust them on this subject right.
I just wrote: Chik appears to be generating more serious illness, and more quickly. To be clearer, it should read, Chik appears to be generating more serious illness, and more quickly than it used to when the older virus strain was circulating.
Other details to consider. The state of Kerala which has the apparent 81 chik virus deaths, lies on the southwest coast of India. Most of the states with chik cases lie in the southern half of India, whereas Dehli and New Dehli are in the north-central part of India.
Here is an article about the newer, more serious form of chikungunya virus. The entire text is free access.
Genome Microevolution of Chikungunya Viruses Causing the Indian Ocean Outbreak
ABSTRACT Background “A chikungunya virus outbreak of unprecedented magnitude is currently ongoing in Indian Ocean territories. In Réunion Island, this alphavirus has already infected about one-third of the human population. The main clinical symptom of the disease is a painful and invalidating poly-arthralgia. Besides the arthralgic form, 123 patients with a confirmed chikungunya infection have developed severe clinical signs, i.e., neurological signs or fulminant hepatitis.”
One interesting comment in the end discussion portion of the article mentions that one of the changes in the genome of the virus has “released” it from dependence on the cholesterol molecule. The authors further note that mosquitoes are “cholesterol auxotrophs” - in other words, they cannot synthesize the cholesterol needed for their growth. The earlier less pathogenic version of the virus needed cholesterol in some way during its “life cycle” (for lack of a better term at the moment), and since mosquitoes could not provide that, it seems logical this would have slowed down the virus life cycle to some degree. But now, this is no longer the case as the virus does not need cholesterol for its life cycle.
It is very interesting to watch organisms changing before our eyes.
I agree with everything that has been said…the future H5N1 pandemic will begin following this exact scenario, in my opinion.
This may very well not be H5N1 however this also is a continuation of a trend that will indirectly affect the future of H5N1.
I have stated in the past about the unusual and unprecedented shifting of ground in respect to mutations to increase virulence in several pathogens of all types in distinct locations around the world.
West Nile mutated to produce unseen symptoms in a previously untouched geographic area…North America. There was SARS, Foot and Mouth, Nipah virus, Dengue Fever and now Chikungunya.
In every case, these pathogens have increased virulence and geographic spread into previously untouched areas.
The same thing has occured with H5N1, H7N7 and H3N8…two of the three occuring in North America.
My point would be that this could be H5N1 and might not but either way…the forces that are making such a broad spectrum of pathogens: bacteria, viruses and parasites shift…will continue to push H5N1 to adapt and mutate at unprecedented speed…
…the bottom line is this is bad news one way or another…in my opinion.
Did anyone else see this? Dengue I, II, or III or maybe tomorrow IV. This thing got into the PM’s house in India. Now, that will wake a govt. up!
Deadly virus spreads to Prime Minister’s home From Jeremy Page in Delhi
AN OUTBREAK of dengue fever has penetrated the residence of the Indian Prime Minister, infecting members of his family and putting pressure on his Government to declare an epidemic.
The virus, which is carried by mosquitoes, has killed at least 38 people and infected 2,900 across the country since the end of the monsoon in August.
The Government has resisted declaring an epidemic because it fears overwhelming its crowded hospitals and deterring foreign visitors at the start of the tourist high season.
But the severity of the outbreak was highlighted yesterday when it was found to have penetrated the secluded Delhi residence of the Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh.
His son-in-law, Vijay Tankha, and two grandsons, Rohan, 11, and Madhav, 17, were admitted to the leading hospital in India with dengue symptoms on Tuesday and Wednesday, sources said.
The rest of the article is a rehash of the medical student. Whatever is happening in India bears watching.
And also A Member of Parliament was flown in from Patna and put in a private ward at AIIMS hospital with suspected dengue.www.timesofindia.indiatimes.com The powers that be are calling on the Prime Minister to fire the health minister Ramadoss for giving’wrong and misleading information on chikungunya deaths.He’s the one that said the deaths weren’t being caused by chikungunya. I think this is very telling.This is at www.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/2114334.cms I really need someone to show me how to give links.
‘Experts confusing us on chikungunya’ ‘Experts are confusing us because some now say it is West Nile fever and not chikungunya.’HL at 51:26 it looks like they are trying hard to find another name.www.indiaenews.com/2006-10/24670-experts-confusing-chikungunya.htm
If anyone were to look up the world distribution of Dengue, they would surely get a shock. I did not know it was in Queensland, Australia!! Thanx for raising the issue in this thread.
Also, it has already been a couple of days since the thread started?!! Watch this space, I suppose!
Hmmmn, it would appear that it is the lap of the gods whether you succumb to a dengue epidemic or not. You can’t control it by closing borders because it is spread by mosquitoes and not people. You can control mosquitoe populations by eradicating sources of standing water it would seem, but this would have it’s limit’s…so?
44 Healthcare workers in the AIIM (India Hospital) are said to have come down with dengue…http://www.tribuneindia.com/2006/20061008/delhi.htm#1 Other reports in India for the local hospitals read just like an excerp out of John Barry’s 1918 pandemic retelling with hospitals overwhelmed 20 beds and 85 patients, doctors exhausted, and people dying left and right.
Its the healthcare workers and their families coming down with the virus that has me convinced this is very, very bad news. I think this is it, the easy transmission of the H5N1 virus. It should take less than three weeks to prove me wrong. I agree with Tom DVM, all of the virii seem to be mutating to more powerful forms, and that might be the case and sort of good news from the Dengue side. But the death rates have recently spiked from the normal 1 % with dengue to over 7% and chikengunya now leathal? Someone here once noted (monotreme I think) when its 30% and above its bird flu. We are not at 30% because the numbers are skewed but it looks at least like 10% and the vector appears to be people and not mosquitos. No panic here, 10% to 15% CFR is much better than the current 50%+ that we have been seeing.
Here is the link for the tiny URL. Bookmark it for future use. Simply cut and paste the link into the box, hit “make tiny URL” and cut and paste the “tiny URL” into your article.
http://tinyurl.com/create.php?url=http://www.apple.com/startpage/
Commonground - Thanks so much for that link…I didn’t know where to find it. Much appreciated!
Some official info concerning spread of dengue in India:
PRESS NOTE
A total number of 3407 cases and 46 deaths have been reported from India as a whole including Delhi till this morning i.e. October 8, 2006 (up to 10 AM). Situation report on Dengue in Delhi (up to 08.10.2006, 10 AM)
A total number of 886 cases and 18 deaths have been reported from Delhi, NCR and other States. Out of these, 538 cases have been reported from Delhi, while 348 cases from the NCR and other States. The 348 cases from outside Delhi includes 88 cases from Haryana, 189 cases from Uttar Pradesh, 12 cases from Rajasthan and 59 from others.
Situation report on Dengue in other States (up to 08.10.2006, 10 AM) Apart from Delhi, up to 08.10.2006, the maximum number of Dengue cases have been reported from Kerala (713), followed by Gujarat (424), Rajasthan (326), West Bengal (314), Tamil Nadu (306) and Maharashtra (226). Cases have also been reported from Uttar Pradesh (79), Haryana (65), Karnataka(59) and Andhra Pradesh(9).
Action taken by Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Govt. of India
A Control Room has been established w.e.f. 08.10.2006 at the Directorate of National Vector Borne Disease Control Programme (NVBDCP), 22 Sham Nath Marg, Delhi – 110054(Telephone No. (23972884) for information dissemination on Dengue. The Control Room is functioning from 10 AM to 10 PM.
NVBDCP is monitoring the situation continuously and providing technical guidance and logistics support to States.
NVBDCP is carrying out vector surveillance in Delhi.
IEC activities have been scaled up for community sensitization and mobilization.
Inter-sectoral meetings with different Departments and hospitals are being held.
All available information has been posted on the Programme’s website: www.namp.gov.in
Press is being briefed regularly about the latest Dengue situation and prevention and control measures being undertaken.
Link to Artical: http://tinyurl.com/zhb2v
I think this may be important, what do you think?
A couple of excerpts: “Dengue will be declared an epidemic in Delhi if condition doesn’t improve by Tuesday,” Delhi Health Minister Yoganand Shastri said on Sunday .
Fresh cases of dengue have been reported at the All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS).
One of the 12 medical students suffering from the deadly fever died on Saturday, less than 24 hours after he was admitted….Out of the 35 patients registered so far, 18 are AIIMS resident doctors and five are the hospital staff….
The number of dengue cases in Delhi rises drastically after August every year. But this year the situation is much worse, with over 121 cases being reported in just the last week. “
As we read more about Dengue keep in mind it used to be called “breakbone fever.” It’s symptoms are very similiar to influenza. I wish they would test for 5 to 1.
Dengue is close to our borders as well. See this from Texas:
BROWNSVILLE, Texas — Her skin was blistering, her gums were bleeding, and her urine was the color of rust.
Delirious with fever, lying in isolation at the Brownsville hospital, Norma Santoy told her husband she felt possessed by a “mosquito spirit” that had stolen her brain.
A week earlier, a rash and intense back pain had brought the 33-year-old mother of two to her childhood doctor over the border in Matamoros, Mexico. He told her it probably was dengue fever, a mosquito-borne virus common to tropical and subtropical areas of the world. Matamoros, only a few hundred yards from Brownsville across the Rio Grande, had experienced annual dengue outbreaks for the past decade.
There is no cure, no treatment, he said; they would hope for a mild case.
what a relief to see the anchors of this site(Tom DVM,Okieman,Commonground and others) start posting on this thread. I feel as though the calvary has arrived.I agree with you HL, I too think this could be it.While reading news articles from India last night I read this from a citizen.”We are all scared.I had the viral fever for 2 weeks and was hospitalized. My neighbor died from it.And now my son and his wife are in the hospital.The authorities tell us it is not chikunkunya.” Sounds an awful lot like a cluster of an H2H disease.And the authorities aren’t talking.What piece of the puzzle are we missing? None that I can see. Thankyou Commonground for link.
witness – at 13:41 I grew up in Florida. You were bitten by mosquito’s almost every day. This is the high season for Dengue in India. If this was H2H H5n1 the numbers would be through the roof by now and it would be showing up all over the world.
Right now I wait and watch. We have insufficient data on which to make any claims.
So, if someone had Dengue fever, can they spread it? I thought(hope that) only a mosquitoe could spread it!
Blue,no they can’t spread it.But I think it’s important to note that the health minister has said that the 90 some deaths in the last week were not due to chikungunya,and by inference Dengue.That’s why the press conference got so heated and he threatened to walk out.He has also stated before their legislative body this past week that over 1 million people are now affected. We’re not even talking about the Dengue numbers here.
I did a search in Pro-Med. Here’s the article:
India - Delhi http://tinyurl.com/f89n8
Date: 6 Oct 2006
From: ProMED-mail
The mosquito-borne dengue disease continued to take its toll across India
yesterday with over 40 people reported dead and nearly 3000 suffering from
it even as the government maintained the situation did not merit epidemic
status.
Health Minister Anbumani Ramadoss said: ?The situation is not that of an epidemic and we expect that the number of dengue cases will see a decreasing trend in the next 2–3 days. So far we have recorded 2900 cases of dengue from across the country. I would like to say that in spite of the above numbers, the situation is under control. We are not complacent and the situation is a matter of concern to the government,? he said.
He also briefed the cabinet meeting chaired by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, 3 of whose family members are feared to have been affected by dengue, on the steps taken to contain the disease. ?There is absolutely no need for panic,? Information and Broadcasting Minister P R Dasmunsi said after the cabinet meeting here.
The worst affected by the dengue virus is the Capital where one more patient died, taking the death toll to 17 even as over 50 fresh cases were reported Thursday.
Acting on a petition, Delhi High Court yesterday sought explanations from the Central and Delhi governments as well as the Municipal Corporation of Delhi (MCD) on their failure to deal with the outbreak of dengue in the Capital. Taking note of the dengue toll in Delhi, many states have sounded an alert.
In Bihar, the total number of dengue cases rose to 12 yesterday with 5 cases reported from Bettiah and Saran districts. In Haryana and Punjab, the number of suspected cases of dengue was on the rise even as health authorities yesterday said that the situation was not alarming.
Veena Chug, Haryana?s director of health services (malaria), said there were 42 confirmed cases of dengue in the state, nearly half of them from Faridabad district adjoining Delhi. She said that it was not confirmed that a death in Faridabad was due to dengue. The government yesterday set up a testing laboratory in Panchkula town adjoining the state capital Chandigarh, as 6–7 suspected dengue cases were reported from Panchkula district during the last 2 days. In Punjab, the number of suspected dengue cases in various places was well over 150, with nearly 90 of them in industrial hub Ludhiana itself. Punjab?s Health and Family Welfare Director Sukhdev Singh said that no deaths had been reported in the state due to dengue.
A dozen patients from Punjab and Haryana have so far come to hospitals in Chandigarh for treatment.
— ProMED-mail <promed@promedmail.org>
[The dengue epidemic in India appears to be spreading and
accelerating. ProMED awaits further information on the success of the
mosquito vector control efforts and on which dengue virus serotypes are
circulating in the various locations reported here. ProMED thanks Mary
Marshall, Brent Barrett, A-Lan Banks, Joe Dudley, and Rector Press
Intelligence for similar reports.
A map of India can be accessed at:
<http://tinyurl.com/ztlj8>. -
Mod.TY]
Does anyone know if there are reliable scientific tests of some kind to determine dengue fever in a patient? Is it even possible this virus could be misdiagnosed on such a grand scale? Some of the finest physicians and scientists are in India, surely they would be able to diagnose the Dengue cases correctly, right? Or do they mostly diagnose by symptoms alone? Same questions for the Chik virus…It seems that they should fairly quickly be able to determine the viruses, and I find it incredibly hard to believe that someone hasn’t already run a few tests for H5N1 just to be sure. Although with the current unreliability of early H5N1 testing lately, that may not prove to be adequate until later (antibody testing).
These are frightening outbreaks, but is anyone here suggesting these are related to H5N1? Thanks so much for any replies… :) Niah
Mon. October 09, 2006
International
Excerpt:
“An outbreak of dengue fever has spread to more states with hundreds of additional cases of the mosquito-borne infection being reported, officials said on Saturday. Eight more people died over the past two days taking the death toll to 46, while the number of infected people rose by more than 400 to 3,331. The disease, which began spreading in late August and was first detected in the national capital New Delhi, has now been reported from 12 of the country’s 29 states. The new states include Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Kerala in the south, Gujarat in the west, and West Bengal in the east. “It’s a serious problem,” health secretary PK Hota told Reuters. “It is certainly a failure because we know this will happen The virus, which occurs mainly in the tropics, causes symptoms such as fever, severe headache, joint and muscular pains, vomiting and rashes.
10/9/2006 12:27:30 AM - By Our Correspondent
New Delhi, Oct. 8: Delhi chief minister Sheila Dikshit’s visit to Guru Tegh Bahadur Hospital in Shahadra, in the northeast Delhi on Saturday, brought a lot of media glare but little succour to the patients.At least one patient died of dengue at the hospital on Saturday, and a day after the chief minister’s visit, the gloom of the patients and their relatives is writ large on their face.
Patients in huge numbers kept coming even on Sunday, a day when most of the doctors were on their weekly off.The situation in the hospital was particularly bad as no special helpdesk was set up for dengue patients. Even the regular enquiry counter was not functioning on Sunday. Patients and their relatives were left wondering where to go and whom to meet. Three patients to a bed has been a routine story in all the hospitals of the capital and this one was no exception.
All the patients were required to get their blood tests done at private pathological hospitals. No senior doctors in the hospital were available to speak to the media.
Oct. 9
Three women die of dengue?
Staff Reporter
KHAMMAM: Three women have died of dengue symptoms in the district. Rajani Kumari, 35, of Bhadrachalam, and Gugulothu Ramadevi, 22, of Khammam died in private hospitals on Sunday while undergoing treatment. Namburi Mangamma, 45, from Aswapuram mandal died on her way to a Khammam hospital. Test reports are awaited from Pune. Mr. Rosaiah, when contacted, said these deaths could not be attributed to dengue without confirmation.
Niah 1630: This is from a September 05 article.
Dengue test misleads BAPPA MAJUMDAR
After a few days of fever, 14-year-old Ashok Malakar was taken for a dengue test. The result was positive, but, unusually, platelet and white blood corpuscles counts of the boy were within permissible limits.
Another test, considered to be more reliable, revealed that Ashok was suffering from Japanese encephalitis, not dengue.
Difficult to believe, but 25 to 30 per cent dengue-positive cases in private clinics and 50 to 60 per cent in government laboratories are turning out to be false. The common factor in all these cases: the tests were done by the IGG (Immuno-globulin) method.
The success, or the failure, rate of this method is prompting doctors to advise dengue suspects the IGM (Immuno-globulin higher molecule) test.
‘Realising the unreliability of the results of the IGG method, the government has asked all pathological laboratories to list only those dengue-positive cases that have been confirmed through the IGM test.’
[snip]
Elaborating on why the IGG test is throwing up wrong results, Jayati Sengupta, coordinator of the paediatric department of AMRI Hospitals, said the Immuno-globulin antibody often cross-reacts with other similar viruses and produces a ?false positive? result.
However, there has been the odd occasion of an IGM test, after 15–20 days of fever, producing a negative result, but the patient continues to show all symptoms of dengue.
From my limited knowledge, IgG and IgM are both immunoglobulins that the body produces in response to a virus. IgM is produced within a few days; IgG is low at first, but peaks in a couple of weeks. What are the odds that all symptomatic folks are being followed up on - and if the second IgG test isn’t done, you really don’t know anything, do you?
Sorry, that was me up above. Here is the link to the Telegraph story.
Health Minister Suryakanta Mishra says state government is worried. He said the mystery fever reported from four villages in Baduria-Ramchandrapur gram panchayat “resembles”chikungunya. But whether it was would be known only after receiving the serological test reports.www.newkerala.com under Bengal govt worried over dengue and malaria
Please note the mention of “coolers” in this article. I also remember coolers being mentioned a couple of days ago concerning the hospital where several doctors, medical students and staff have gotten sick. Remember the old evaporative water coolers with the squirrel cage fans and sides that dripped water to be evaporated, cooling the air entering the house? (Some folk still use them in Oklahoma by the way.) Remember the water reservoir in the bottom? Well, I think that is what they men when they mention coolers that contribute to the propagation of mosquitos. If these were uses extensively in the housing for hospital staff or in the hospital itself that would explain why a number of doctors and healthcare workers were infected in one place. Just a thought.
CHANDIGARH: With more and more cases of suspected dengue fever pouring in, the number of suspected cases inched up to 120 even as four more people were confirmed to test positive for the fever at different hospitals in the city on Sunday.
<snip>
On Sunday five fresh cases of suspected dengue were reported at the hospital. The malaria department launched a drive in Manimajra after two people — 19-year-old Gaurav and 8-year-old Bilal reported as suspected cases. Following this the UT Malaria department took remedial measures during which 110 coolers in the area were checked and those found with stagnant water were emptied.
<snip>
Even as panic gripped the residents feeling slightest of uneasiness, the health authorities launched a damage control campaign in the city. Teams of the malaria department panned out in the city going from house to house in few sectors like Sector 19 and Manimajra to look for coolers with stagnant water and other mosquito breeding grounds. 69 numbers of blood slides were collected for malaria parasite.
Fogging operations was launched in Hallomajra, Airport, Behlana, ITBP, Manimajra, Mariwala town, Pipliwala town, Indira colony, Sector 32, 33, 35 & 36. With number of cases increasing by the day all the three hospitals in the city have made elaborate arrangements to take on more cases.
With all this going on, guess what was in the sunday paper in the travel section? Yep. Go to India.
Ree – at 18:12
Wow…that was interesting. Thank you very much for sharing the article. I guess the tests have the ability to come up positive even if it’s the wrong virus. I had no idea. Thanks, Niah :)
This is from an article speaking about the cases at AIIMS hospital. It was written on Oct 2 so the numbers have risen. “It is shocking that 15 cases pertain to AIIMS alone. The victims include resident doctors, medical students, staffers and relatives of hospital staff. A teenager, daughter of a doctor couple had succumbed to the disease at the AIIMS on Wednesday.” OK, RELATIVES OF HOSPITAL STAFF? A doctors daughter?Is it me, or does this sound like a contagious illness?
I have not been able to find an answer to this question: are they specifically testing for H5N1 in India?
Ok, here goes. I have professional and personal experience w/dengue. Parasitology and vector conrol are a part of my training and practice. And, I caught dengue while on a trip to the tropics about 14 yrs ago. It is not, contagious in a h2h manner. Mosquitos are the required intermediate host. As I commented on the news thread last week, we need to watch India until no shadow of a doubt remains. The fact that hcw are becomimg infected concerns me a lot, also the death rate looks too high to me. I will be humbly, happy to be wrong, but this is not passing my smell test.
Enza-I don’t have ANY experience AT ALL with dengue, and this seems very suspicious to me. Going just by what Ive read about it, this dosn’t seem right. I would also love to be wrong, but right now, Im very concerned.
enza – at 01:19 None of what is going on in India passed my smell test, That was why I started the thread.
Lets keep on this, like B vitamins on processed cereal. This may be anything abb or…
Enza:
I’ve been somewhat amazed these countries like India don’t have a spraying program, especially since they know when the rains come, so do the skeeters. The hospital for instance would know how to treat the water in the coolers Okieman mentioned. But, the HCW’s could’ve been bitten in their own homes. I just don’t understand how they’re not prepared. I’m also reading articles that dengue has changed in some manner, more virulent, have you any info on that?
Like all viuses, dengue is capable of mutation to become more virulent. Also, some types of dengue are already quite serious eg the hemeorragic type. Yes, the hcw may be part of the infected population and they would be more readily reported; which would skew their numbers. There are more questions than answers now. I too have seen data on the increased virulence of dengue. It is also one of the emerging and reemerging diseases in wake of climate changes.
I thought I was done posting for the night. Took a shower and was thinking about all the pieces to the puzzle we have so far and which ones were missing. I could think of only one. Bleeding.No mention of it in any of the articles I had read from India.Came in the office to turn off the computer and decided to do one last check on India. Here it is-“Dr Raj Kiran, a resident doctor at the AIIMS died on Sept. 29 of dengue haemorrhagic fever. Dr. Misra stated “By the third or fourth day,there may be external or internal bleeding-clear signs of haemorrhage,”he said.Folks,It sounds from this article that most of the deaths have involved bleeding. I can only tell you where to find the article because although commonground tried to tell me how to post a link I am brand new to this and don’t have a clue how to cut and paste and for that matter don’t even know what exactly that means.www.hindustantimes.com Article titled:Dengue continues to kill, toll up to 22(This death toll is just New Delhi)
Anon_451 – at 23:47 Well we know that they are not testing for H5N1 because India is Bird Flu free. The India government has said so and we can trust them on this subject right.
Surely you jest. Call me paranoid, but I believe financial stakes are so high that no government can be fully trusted when declaring a country “bird flu free.”
Blue – at 03:01 Hmmmn, it would appear that it is the lap of the gods whether you succumb to a dengue epidemic or not.
Lap of the gods or a can of Off.
Anon_451 – at 13:47 I grew up in Florida. You were bitten by mosquito’s almost every day. This is the high season for Dengue in India. If this was H2H H5n1 the numbers would be through the roof by now and it would be showing up all over the world. Right now I wait and watch. We have insufficient data on which to make any claims.
Agree fully. There are plenty of horrible diseases throughout the world that cause widespread death. We are just more in tune with disease reporting these days as we track H5N1. We need more information.
and we move on from India, to Cuba.
Cuba wages war against dengue fever Sun., Oct.8, 20006-The Kansas City Star(Kansascity.com)
Cuba’s independant journalists alledge a nationwide dengue epidemic rivialing outbreaks of years past, particuarly in Santiago de Cuba, and Havana. However, an hospital official at Havana’s international medical center, a hospital aimed at tourists, said, “We don’t have an epidemic, we don’t have anything.”
It is my understanding that both the dengue fever, and the chikungunya virus, both have basically the same symptoms, and both have high infectious rates, with both having low mortality rates. And the only way infection can be spread from human to human, is from blood. It is the Aedes Aegypit mosquito that is transmiter of both diseases. I could not find anything that would suggest the virus mutates, such as from year to year.
One would think that as uch as these countries have dealt with this, they would know for sure that it is dengue/chikungunya. The mortality rate is very scarey, and not characteristic of these two diseases. Symptoms are the same, infection rates high, nothing unusual about that. What is making this so deadly?
Cottontop at 9:00, It is my understanding that both the dengue fever, and the chikungunya virus, both have basically the same symptoms, and both have high infectious rates, with both having low mortality rates. And the only way infection can be spread from human to human, is from blood. It is the Aedes Aegypit mosquito that is transmiter of both diseases. I could not find anything that would suggest the virus mutates, such as from year to year.
Evidently the chikungunya virus has gone through an important mutation, see my post at 00:15 on 8 Oct with journal article link. Having said that, something does not feel right about this whole situation. One would think the epidemiology/virology folks would be on this big time, ruling out all possible factors not causing the problem…including H5N1.
I fear that the epidemiology/virology folks ARE on this big time and they’re not releasing any news……for our own good…….so we won’t panic.
Dengue in Delhi:56 New Cases - “More people reported sick with the dengue virus on Monday with 56 fresh cases being admitted to ciy hospitals, taking the number to 941, and the Delhi government called an urgent meeting to review the situation.” They are taking in only the urgently ill. AIIMS turned away nearly a 1000 just one day last week.These numbers are off the charts compared to last years Dengue numbers.
Sorry, here’s the link www.Hindustantimes.com These new cases were just in New Delhi alone.
Isn’t it amazing how much more aware we are now of vector-borne and/or infectious diseases overseas then we used to be? [me for sure]
The water coolers on the medical campus might be contributing to the problem, see here
But this article indicates nursing home residents needing platelet counts due to dengue. Aren’t resident protected from mosquitoes? Water cooler problems there too?
“Platelets counts were in demand from Kanpur Medical Centre, Madhuraj Nursing Home, RK Devi Hospital, Sakeena Nursing Home, Saral Nursing Home etc. Several of these nursing homes have clearly indicated that they needed platelet counts for dengue patients.”
Grace RN- Oh yes! Certainly “Chickungunya” is a new word in my vocabulary! My geography is improving by leaps and bounds as well.
Now Over 1.3 million chikungunya cases in India.”Boy, those numbers rose fast. Especially since the authorities said a few days ago we would start seeing a decline.www.newkerala.com
GraceRn- at 12:03
I am much more aware of what is going on around me close to home, as well. when the Cuba article caught my eye, I read the whole thing with interest, being it is close to home.
witness- at 15:12
I am interested to know what the mortality rate is for those 1.3 million.
For whatever it’s worth—
Had the opportunity to speak today to a hcw from India who was there as recently as last month and is now here in the U.S. to do an pub. hlth. degree. This is what I gathered:
Affirmation of the outbreak of what is believed to be ‘dengue/chiki’; affirmation of many hcw falling ill as well; affirmation that clinics, hosps. etc are dealing with major surge. Affirmation (to the best of their knowledge)that h5n1 testing is not being done. I was also told that most people in the villages and rural areas are only seeking medical help when they are very ill and most think it they have chiki, because they symptoms are similar.
Sorry for the horrid spelling and grammar, am in a hurry right now.
“Varsity mulls ‘mercy killing’ of fever-hit pigs.”With the incidence of swine fever at the Kerala University’s Pig Breeding Farm here assuming alarming proportions taking the mortality to 157, the authorities are mulling mercy killing of about 1,000 pigs at the farm as the only viable way out. As has been mentioned this is the same area that has been hit with so called chikungunya.
And once again I forgot the link www.newkerala.com
“Govt to screen people for dengue at airports, railway station” This article is dated Oct. 10. NOW ,WHY WOULD THEY DO THAT? The Hospitals are overflowing, why would they go out and look for more?www.netindia123.com
You have a point, witness at 20:08. They are in the middle of a crisis, the doctors are working around the clock, emergency wards are being set up in various districts, BUT they are going to screen people at airports, railway stations and bus stands for an illness that is blood borne with a mosquito vector?? That sounds more like….Hmmmm. Actually, I don’t LIKE what that sounds more like….
witness – at 20:08
In all likelyhood they are trying to prevent sick people from boarding planes or trains, rather than disembarking from them. In otherwords they are trying to prevent the spread to other areas of the country or world. That is a wise move.
Okieman,how can they infect others with dengue.?
the only way Dengue infection can be spread from human to human, is from blood.
witness – at 20:08 “Govt to screen people for dengue at airports, railway station” This article is dated Oct www.netindia123.com
Okieman – at 21:36 In all likelyhood they are trying to prevent sick people from boarding planes or trains, rather than disembarking from them. In otherwords they are trying to prevent the spread to other areas of the country or world. That is a wise move.
Only one problem Okieman, Dengue cannot be transferred H2H, unless they come in direct contact with an infected humans blood, so, unless they are all bleeding at the airports and railway stations, there will be no spread of the disease. Which brings me to the conclusion, it’s not Dengue, all in favor say I.
witness – at 22:01
Presumably a mosquito biting an infected person can pick it up and then pass it on to someone else.
I looked it up. It seems that mosquitos can pick it up from infected people. From wikipedia
“Patients with dengue can only pass on the infection through mosquitoes or blood products while they are still febrile.”
Thanks you guys. They do say in this article that anybody with fever should be taken to hospitals. With the shape the hospitals and staff are in right now, that seems bizarre.
By the way,can’t find the article again,but I read today that there are 10 soldiers infected with “Dengue” and another doctor at a different hospital has died of same.I will post the article if I can locate it again.
“Only a small fraction of blood samples of patients suspected with chikungunya actually tested postive. Among 13,500 samples tested for chikungunya , only 1,530 were infected. We’re mainly testing for chikungunya and dengue. THE OTHERS MIGHT HAVE BEEN INFECTED WITH SOME OTHER VIRUS.”Oh Good Grief, there are over 1.3 million cases now of just “suspected chikungunya and they are not testing for “other viruses.”I am at a loss for words.(Nice words anyway)www.telegraphindia.com
I’ve been thinking about this a lot and waiting to see what the news says about it. But there’s hardly ANY mention about India in mainstream media, yet there are 1.3 million people in India infected. If over a million people suddenly become infected with any disease in any country, wouldn’t the news be all over it? Why aren’t they? This in itself seems bizarre to me.
“6 feared down with dengue in Nepal”One of the patients who is suffering from high fever and HAEMORRHAGE was sent to New Delhi for treatment.However,the district government is professing ignorance about the suspected dengue patients.Nepal shares an open border with it’s southern neithbor.”Well,they better start tap dancing faster. The mosquito that carries the dengue virus isn’t suppose to be able to live at such a high altitude.Maybe that why the government there is professing ignorance.www.newkerala.com
I think this thing is on the move.My quess is we will start hearing more”dengue” reports from India’s neighbors.It just won’t be long before we know for sure.
Reader-at02:48
yep, I agree too. That’s alot of sick people for a country. In last sunday’s paper, instead of reporting about India, they had a huge article in the travel section, encouring people to go to India. Why will they not release the moritality numbers for those 1.3 million? We need to see that. This just doesn’t make any sense. Has anyone seen any numbers?
What are your news sourses? Would it make sense for us to atsrt searching various papers around India to see what other towns are reporting?
Average Concerned Mom
in our sunday paper, we have a travel section, and each week a different country, town, city, ect, is featured. It is associated press, I think, not sure who where the news paper gets their. Lordy, I did keep the article.
India beckons seekers of spiriteal nirvana
Holy sites: more foreign tourists travel to Bihar state to “walk with the Buddha”
By Nirmala George associated press Bodh Gaya, India
this was in my newspaper, the Watertown daily Times (n.y.). It just struck me as a bad idea at this time, to encourage people to go to India.
Oh, cottontop, I meant what are some good on-line sources people are finding all these dengue reports in? I want to help do some searching!
Average Concerned Mom I have no idea. I have been surfing and can not find anything. I am more concerned now with wanting to know that the mortality rate is of those 1.3 million. I get the usual information, but nothing tangable. Usually a Google of India gets lots of reports, I love the BBC World Wide News, (bbc.co.uk). I’m just finding imformation stagnet right now, and very frustrating. That article prompted me to find others on the web. Sorry. I know it isn’t much help.
I saw 1.3 million suspected cases in a news article not confirmed. What I saw in my brief surfing was about 1,000 cases of denge confirmed. And about a 2% fatality rate.
From what I have read, that’s about average. You know, it’s just really scarey to see “1.3 million”, people infected with what, we don’t know, and it seems they don’t know either. That is alot of people to test, and in the meantime, deaths are occuring, and I’m willing to bet, the dead don’t get tested. And in the meantime, India is promoting their tourist attractions, and people from all over will go. India is a very popular place to travel to.
O.k., here’s a stupid question, straight out of my science fiction mind. Could it be possible that the dengue/chikungunya virus, and the avian bird flu virus, converge together, to produce one super virus? Or are the strains too different for that?
Also, is it typical for the Indian government to issue screening people at airports, railway stations, ect., looking for people with dengue? Under normal outbreaks of this disease? To my mind, if this is not normal for them to do, than they can’t be dealing with just dengue/chikungunya. Look for any abnormal behaviour from the government.
It’s 1.3 million suspected cases. Could be anything.
Here is a link to a list of news sources for India: http://tinyurl.com/gq9pj
Looks like it is broken out by region/city/town.
I have a full plate today, so can’t search. However, if this continues to spread to other areas, I do think we should begin following it with a little more diligence.
If someone could find background information on historical trends in past dengue/chik outbreaks in India, that would give us a benchmark by which to judge if this is completely out of whack with the norm. Although at this point common sense dictates that it is.
Historical information on past dengue outbreaks in India will be helpful; but there probably won’t be anything to compare to this year’s chik outbreak, because the virus went through a major change which may include life cycle adjustments that makes faster transmission possible. The article referenced at 00:15 on 8 Oct give more background on the chik virus changes.
I do not see any mention of respiratory problems - just fever, Bone pain, low blood platlets and bleeding.
The Chik outbreak started last year in La Reunion Island. Jeremy from FT had been the first to report it when he was at CE (he was DB at the time) and was thrown into a “speculation” room and finally banned. He seems to have been right when he called Chik a pandemic disease. He questioned the H2H spread and hinted that it might be a H5N1 strain. There had been a report that 3 tourists entering La Reunion had BF symptoms after returning from a trip to SEA where there were BF victims.
Most likely we are seeing some form of mosquito borne illness here spreading like wildfire. If it actually is H5N1, or if this baby has gone H2H sans mosquitos, we should be seeing cases popping up in major international hubs soon.
I am in NYC this week… and i was thinking if these cases started showing up in Lenox Hill Hospital, how long before we would find out about it? I suspect we know more about the situation in Indonesia than we do in our own backyard. Scary.
I did hear back from my sister regarding the Dengue, Chik., and H5N1. This is all she wrote:
“All’s well here. People are writing about the fevers in the paper but the general population knows that it is not much different than everything that goes on here: it’s been going on forever, the people who have succumbed are the ones who have had it before and of course we are all careful and use protection.
Am still in Delhi and will go to Kathmandu on Thurs. instead of yesterday as I had some gastroenteritis but am now fine, just had to change my flight and couldn’t get another until Thurs.”
Well I’m glad that she’s not panicking but I wonder where she’s getting her information. If she’s flying to Nepal tomorrow she’ll certainly see/experience (esp. at the airport) that this is *not* ‘business as usual’. I’ll try to keep in touch with her but I understand that her focus is on ‘positive’ issues and has difficulty thinking about ‘illness’ and panflu.
folks, I’m just not finding anything that can help us for more information. I googles “India newspapers” and got quiet a few links. I found this on “thehindu.com” sight.
“the number of dengue cases here in the capital crossed the 1,000 mark on Tue., and went up to 1,029, with over 40 fresh cases being registered. With no more deaths reported, the toll so far remains 23. Of the 651 cases that have been reported so far across the capital, 577 are from Municipal corporation of Delhi(MCD) area, and 25 from the New Delhi Municipal council(MDMC) area, according to the health department. Cases registered in various zones include, Shahdara(north) 79, Shahdara(south)57, Civil Lines 38, Rohini 38, Karol Bagh 51, West Zone 50, centeal Zone 115, South Zone 40 and Najafgarh 77.”
Wish I could find something tangible.
Regarding closing transportation routes to stop the spread of dengue, I have never heard of transportation routes being closed for any other mosquito borne illness. I live in Florida and we have had encephalitis and West Nile fatalities right here.
Thank you to the people collecting the news. I appreciate it much.
We will eventually see chikungunya anywhere the Aedes mosquito thrives - that means the belt of tropical and semi-tropical climate that circles the earth. Tropical areas, especially in less developed countries, have always had a tremendous upward battle in trying to control their mosquito-vecored diseases so there’s little hope that chik will burn itself out before it gains quite a lot of territory. Eventually it will infiltrate the Mediteranean and also the southern U.S. where the Aedes mosquito also lives, although more modern living conditions and controls should help to control its spread there (where it will probably be dealt with like West Nile Virus).
The new chikungunya strain is yet another stubborn health problem that less developed countries, already overrun with these kinds of illness, will have to deal with. However, it is not H5N1, and chik has shown no indications that it is transmissible H2H. It does add one more disease to complicate the picture, although as Goju pointed out that it’s symptoms do present differently than H5N1 influenza, which is a relief.
Try this link for news on Dengue in India:
prepperbabe – at 11:08 Regarding closing transportation routes to stop the spread of dengue, I have never heard of transportation routes being closed for any other mosquito borne illness. I live in Florida and we have had encephalitis and West Nile fatalities right here.
prepperbabe, see comment by NoFluingAround – at 22:12
makes complete sense to me, IMO.
I’m not saying it’s H5N1, just saying, it may not be dengue. It does not make any sense to monitor transportation if it is a mosquito borne disease.
according to the wikipedia, patients with dengue can ONLY pass on the infection through mosquitoes, or blood products while they are still febrile.
Now, we all know this is not a human to human disease. If you have dengue, chances are, you will not be waitng for a bus, or airplane, or out in public. You’ll be too sick in bed. so monitoring transportation serves no purpose, unless, and here’s a wild theory, they are slipping the H5N1 in under the radar. But even then, you can’t really tell if someone has H5N1 just by looking at them in an airport. They would do what they did with the SARS, take peoples temperature. So no, this makes no sense to me either.
I went to my newsnow link and searched for dengue and got a lot of stuff. hope this helps
Historical information on past dengue outbreaks in India will be helpful; but there probably won’t be anything to compare to this year’s chik outbreak, because the virus went through a major change which may include life cycle adjustments that makes faster transmission possible. The article referenced at 00:15 on 8 Oct give more background on the chik virus changes.
Beehiver et al.
Other than the fact that dengue and chikungunya are endemic disease that will conflict and confuse the diagnosis of H5N1…
…both of these viruses has mutated to markedly increase virulence, transissibility and geographical spread. When you combine this with Foot and Mouth mutations, SARS, Nipah, H5N1,H3N8 in dogs, H7 and H9 causing human infectios, Strept. suis (bacteria) in pigs,West Nile, TB (bacteria), community acquired-MRSA (bacteria) and markedly increased rates of legionarres disease (bacteria)…
…I think we would all agree that his scattered information when combined represents a trend-line that has relevance to the propability of an H5N1 pandemic.
there is historical information out there, I just don’t think it’s on the web. I’ve tried every key word I could think of, and got nothing. Back to the good ole books.
Tom DVM - at 13:32: I’m not convinced there is a relationship between the emergence of new diseases (particularly viral ones), or mutated old diseases, and the liklihood of an H5N1 pandemic. Fifty years ago we were looking at virulent measles, mumps, polio, and a whole range of other viral illnesses that seemed to be raging all at one time. The buggers seem to just rear their ugly heads now and again. Not to say that human encroachment on habitats and our habits have not contributed to the problem - I think it is clear that they have. I just don’t know if they are predictive factors for an H5N1 pandemic, which I think still stands outside the other viral warriors in a class of its own.
Pixie
I think what Tom DVM is saying, I think anyway, is that as time has gone by, the viruses have mutated to the point of really becoming deadly, and now being able to be transported to every little nook and cranny of the globe, makes them that much more deadly. I read last night that Europe is havig a tuberculosis (can’t remember if it is outbreak, epidemic), and it’s the worse strain they’ve seen, and nothing is touching it. We have an outbreak of whooping cought here.
Perhaps it’s just that we are paying more attention, but it seems that the virises and bacteria have rose up all at one, and are hell bent for leather. Am I correct in any of these assumption?
NEW DELHI (Reuters)http://tinyurl.com/ffgsl
- India needs to improve public sanitation standards dramatically to prevent outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases like dengue, which has killed 52 people and infected thousands in recent weeks, the health minister said on Wednesday.
Anbumani Ramadoss’s concern about India’s grubby cities and towns came as officials said the country was also dealing with 1.3 million suspected cases of chikungunya, a disease transmitted by the female Aedes aegypti mosquito, that causes dengue as well.
Dengue takes 86 lives, reported cases 4039
New Delhi, Oct 11: In the midst of anti-dengue drive in affected states, 22 more patients have died due to the viral disease taking the toll across the country to 86 and reported cases to 4039.
Dengue has now afflicted at least 16 states with Delhi accounting for 23 deaths and the maximum number of 1101 reported cases of the mosquito-borne disease followed by 22 deaths in Maharashtra, report reaching here said today.
A concerned Union Health Minister Ambumani Ramadoss this morning visited all India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS), which is treating a majority of dengue cases in the national capital, to review medical facilities at the premier hospital. During his hour-long visit, he faced ‘Gandhigiri’ style protest by some resident doctors.
Besides Delhi and Maharashtra, eight persons each have died in Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh, four each in Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Kerala, three each in Punjab, Gujarat and West Bengal, two in Haryana and one each in Tamil Nadu and Madhya Pradesh.
Official figures said as many as 713 cases of dengue have been detected in Kerala, 424 cases in Gujarat, 328 in Rajasthan, 314 in West Bengal, 306 in Tamil Nadu, 282 in UP, 226 in Maharashtra, 181 in Punjab, 86 in Haryana, 60 in Karnataka and 18 in Andhra Pradesh. Other affected states included Bihar, Uttaranchal, Madhya Pradesh and Jammu and Kashmir.
A report from Jammu said the number of dengue-positive cases in the division has risen to 11. A woman from Surankot, who had been admitted to a hospital here with the viral infection, has been discharged.
Officials said authorities have started screening tourists visiting Jammu. A team of doctors has been deployed at Lakhanpur, an entry point to the state.
A report from Madhya Pradesh said one person died of suspected dengue in a private hospital in Indore.
An official spokesman in Chandigarh said that 20 fresh cases of suspected dengue have been reported at Post Graduate Institute of Medical Education and Research in the city.
While 10 patients were from Chandigarh, Punjab and Haryana, the remaining were from other states, including UP, he added.
Dengue toll rises, 72 new cases reported
Indo-Asian News Service http://tinyurl.com/otk6g
New Delhi, October 11, 2006
“Three weeks after the first dengue death was reported, the spread of the mosquito-borne disease continued unchecked with 72 new cases reported in the capital on Wednesday, taking the total number of affected people to 1,111.
Of these, 719 are from Delhi while the rest are from areas close to the national capital.”
“Is it chikungunya in Kerala,is it not?”Joining issues over the outbreak are Kerala Chief Minister and Union Health Minister Anbumani Ramadoss. Ramadoss,says it is not chikungunya. Irked by this statement,Achuthanandan shot back’Those who say the deaths were not due to chikungunya are duty bound to make it clear how such a large number of deaths have occurred.”’It is not just the political class which has a difference of opinion. A study carried out by the Indian Medical Assoc. has found that the deaths were possibly not due to chikungunya.Similarly, a central team comprising experts from WHO, The National Institute of Virology and the National Institute of Communicable Diseases, which has been camping at Cherthala yet to finally confirm whether the disease is Chikungunya or not.” For having such a difficult time now, they were sure quick to slap a name on this thing.www.refiff.com
Witness at 18:52
The link you provide is to a junk page. Can you please repost the correct link? What you have posted is very disturbing, and I would like to read the source info myself. Thanks.
Times of India (excerpt):
“NEW DELHI: A team of experts from the World Health Organisation and the National Institute of Communicable Diseases has ruled out chikungunya as the cause of over 100 deaths in Kerala and Gujarat.
<snip>
Speaking to TOI, a senior ministry official said, “Chikungunya is usually not fatal and the team of experts has also confirmed it. All the patients had other underlying diseases.
While three suffered from TB, over a dozen suffered from cardio vascular diseases. Some suffered cerebral hemorrhage and kidney failure.
<snip>
This confirmation comes after an Indian Medical Association report that made similar observations.
<snip>
They said of the 32 deaths, only one had suspected symptoms of chikungunya. All others were identifiable cases of death due to heart attack, stroke and respiratory problems.”
Entire story at: http://tinyurl.com/oar2x
Chandigarh, Oct 11 Headline reads” 22 more cases of dengue in city” Article goes on to say “Official records of the UT Health Department , however, claim that a total of 219 cases have been reported.”It also states” Meanwhile, a STAFF NURSE of the PGI has also caught the infection and is undergoing treatment.”www.tribune india.com
Dengue Fever What is dengue fever? Dengue is a viral disease transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes mainly in tropical and subtropical areas of the world, with the greatest risks occurring in:
the Indian subcontinent Southeast Asia Southern China Taiwan the Pacific Islands Caribbean (except Cuba and the Cayman Islands) Mexico Africa Central and South America (except Chile, Paraguay, and Argentina) Dengue fever occurs most often in urban areas, but may be found in rural areas also, particularly in areas with elevation less than 4,000 feet. Transmission of the virus, via Aedes mosquitoes, usually occurs during and shortly after the rainy season. These mosquitoes are most active during the day and are often found near human dwellings, often indoors.
What are the symptoms of dengue fever? Dengue fever may confused with other infectious diseases such as influenza or malaria. Symptoms may include:
sudden onset, high fever severe headaches joint and muscle pain nausea vomiting rash that appears three to four days after the onset of fever The illness may last up to 10 days, with recovery often taking two to four weeks.
More severe, but less common, forms of the disease include dengue hemorrhagic fever and dengue shock syndrome. Among these diseases, symptoms resemble those of dengue fever, but may progress to faintness, shock, and generalized bleeding.
How can dengue fever be prevented? Because there is not a vaccine for dengue fever, travelers should: avoid mosquito bites by using insect repellents on skin and clothing. stay in well screened or air conditioned areas. When sleeping areas are not air conditioned or screened, the use of aerosol insecticides indoors and bednets are recommended.
How is dengue fever diagnosed? Dengue fever infection is diagnosed by a special blood test to determine the presence of the virus or antibodies. See your physician if you become sick within a month of returning from travel in a tropical area, and be prepared to give your complete travel itinerary, so that the physician can evaluate the possibility that your symptoms were caused by a dengue infection.
Treatment for dengue fever: Specific treatment will be determined by your physician based on: your overall health and medical history extent of the disease your tolerance for specific medications, procedures, or therapies expectations for the course of the disease your opinion or preference. The symptoms of dengue fever are generally treated with bed rest and fluids. Medications may be used to reduce fever, such as acetaminophen, but aspirin should be avoided.
link: http://www.healthsystem.virginia.edu/uvahealth/adult_travel/dengue.cfm
Two interesting (2005) articles about India - the Public Health System and Poultry Screening (Tom DVM - you will find the second one fascinating!!):
http://tinyurl.com/m66xt EPW Commentary November 12,2005 Bird Flu: Public Health Implications for India
The H5N1 virus, commonly referred to as bird flu, must be viewed as a serious threat to India and all possible precautions must be taken to guard against disaster. Countries with robust public health systems are gearing up to face a H5N1 global pandemic. India’s weakness in public health is, however, a cause for worry. Our defences could easily be overwhelmed by the sheer magnitude of the pandemic. T Jacob John
Bird flu: destination India?
M. Sreelatha
2 September 2005 Source: SciDev.Net http://tinyurl.com/qokst
For the past year, India has checked random samples of chicken blood for H5N1, the virus that has caused havoc in other parts of Asia. But traders and farmers at Ghazipur market, which supplies all of Delhi’s poultry retailers, are armed with just one ill-equipped doctor and some philosophy.
M. P. Singh, from the State Veterinary Hospital, is in charge of checking chickens sold here, in India’s largest wholesale poultry market.
In the noisy, dusty market, Singh has a room containing only a table and chair. When he needs to take blood samples, he brings along bottles from his hospital. The traders offer their slaughtering knives to slit a chicken’s throat for its blood.
Germs cannot survive hot spices and temperatures, says one poultry trader Photo Credit (WHO/P. Virot) Singh says his main job is to ensure that only freshly killed chickens are sold and that all other dead birds are destroyed. But outside the market, 800 to 1,000 dead birds are sold every day for 45 rupees (US$1) each. Singh has no way of knowing if they died at the knife or of disease.
Great website showing migratory paths in India and discussion re BF - Birds of Kolkata - http://tinyurl.com/frjq8
“Dengue takes 86 lives,reported cases 4039″OFFICIALS SAID AUTHORITIES HAVE STARTED SCREENING TOURISTS VISITING JAMMU. A TEAM OF DOCTORS HAS BEEN DEPLOYED AT LAKHANPUR, AN ENTRY POINT TO THE STATE.----AN OFFICIAL SOPKESMAN IN CHANDIGARH SAID THAT 20 FRESH CASES OF SUSPECTED DENGUE HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT POST GRADUATE INSTITUTE OF MEDICAL ECUCATION AND RESEARCH IN THE CITY.I think there are 3 vital points here .1)numbers of sick are increasing when officials said days ago they would start dropping.2)They are really starting to act like it’s H2H. 3) More sick health care workers.
And the link is www.zeenews.com
Posted at 14:15, but better twice than not at all.
bump
“Chikungunya suspected in Bengal villages” Over 2,000 people out of 15,000 are sick with “high fever, severe headache,bodyache,vomiting and acute weakness.”GET THIS-Chief medical officer Kusum Adhikare said that blood samples were sent to the School of Tropical Medicine, but IT WAS NOT KNOWN IF IT HAD THE FACILITIES FOR IDENTIFYING THE VIRUS.MEANWHILE,HEALTH DEPARTMENT OFFICIALS FACED AN UNRULY CROWD DURING A VISIT TO THE VILLAGES. THE PEOPLE ALLEGED THAT NO GOVERNMENT OFFICIAL CARED TO ASCERTAIN THE CAUSE OF THE FEVER AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION. This article is dated Oct.6. I bet those numbers are sky high by now.www.newkerala.com
This gives you an idea of what our hospitals can expect in a pandemic.
As dengue panic grips the city, even private hospitals are having to work overtime. Most are full — some even have waiting lists — because many patients with fever are willing to pay whatever it takes to get admitted into a hospital.
“All fever cases are not dengue but such is the panic that everyone with fever rushes to a hospital asking to be admitted. Some even get platelet counts done before coming to the hospital. Just answering phone calls and reassuring patients is taking up a lot of time and stretching everybody,” says Dr Anupam Sibal, director, medical services, Apollo Hospital.
All the 150 beds at Fortis Hospital in Noida are occupied, with an average of five patients being turned away each night. “We admit only those with symptoms of very high fever or those with a platelet count of less than 1 lakh/cubic mm,” says Dr Uma Nambiar, medical superintendent, Fortis Noida. The normal platelet range is 1.5 to 4.5 lakh/mm3. “So great is the panic that people think every fever is dengue and we have patients insisting to be admitted even when doctors say there is no need,” says Dr Nambiar.
Over the past two weeks, Batra Hospital in south Delhi has had 100 per cent occupancy, up from the its average 60 per cent. “Though we are ‘overfull’, we are not turning patients away,” says Dr Maheshwari Sharma, medical superintendent, Batra. “We treat everyone with high fever as a suspected dengue case and we admit them. The platelet count is done after admission,” says Dr Sharma.
Max Patparganj in east Delhi is full, and patients were told they could not be accommodated on Wednesday night because there was a “wait-list” of 25 patients. “You have to pull strings even to get a paying bed in a private hospital,” complains a patient, who finally did just that for a bed in a private hospital on Thursday.
and now…POLIO http://tinyurl.com/y5l3gz
From Yahoo News: Excerpt…The World Health Organization (WHO), U.N. Children’s Fund ( UNICEF), Rotary International and the Atlanta-based CDC missed their goal of halting the spread of polio by the end of 2005.
While rates in Afghanistan and Pakistan have begun to wane, sporadic efforts in India and an almost year-long interruption in vaccination in northern Nigeria from mid-2003 caused a spike in infections that spread to more than 20 countries.
Cochi said a failure to knock out polio in the countries that have never stopped its transmission could cause “a huge resurgence” in the disease which can cause life-long paralysis in children.
FWIW- My sister flew from Delhi to Nepal yesterday and said that she did not see/”experience” any check-points at the airport.
I returned yesterday from a six-day stay in New Delhi. The local newspapers reported on the dengue epidemic but life in and around the city was absolutely normal. And indeed, no medical checkpoints in the airport. I frankly don’t see why we should be worried about the present situation in India with reference to H5N1. Dengue is a mosquito borne disease and no H2H transmission is possible. Chikunkunya is another arbovirus. None of these could be confused with an outbreak of H5N1. Dengue is also endemic where I live (Dhaka) and we learned to live with it. Three European teachers in my children’s school got dengue in the last two months and they had to stay in bed for a couple of weeks to recover. I don’t let my kids play outside in the early morning or late afternoon when the Aedes mosquitoes are active and that is the beginning and the end of my preventive measures agains dengue.
Albert @ 13:12 None of these could be confused with an outbreak of H5N1.
Herein lies the problem since there ARE cases in Indonesia and perhaps elsewhere, in which H5N1 was present and not correctly diagnosed because it was labled Dengue Fever. I believe with the sheer numbers of presumed cases of Dengue currently in India there is concern that there could also be H5N1 cases that are being missed and lumped together with the others.
86 deaths out of 4039 cases, or 2%. Does this sound like the H5N1 we all know and love ?
anonymous – at 18:24 NO it does not, It sounds like H1N1 as dengue normal would have a CFR of about 0.5.
Anon451 — any more musings on the tipping point? At point you were thinking at a 155 cases in twenty days was of interest.
Olymom – at 18:41 The more that I read, learn and understand, the more I agree with TOM DVM. When you think this thing will turn right, it turns left. When you think a county has it under control it rears up and bites them in the back side. I still kind of hold with the number, BUT a super spreader could cause the number and then it could die back down, or the people infected may have a special susceptibility to it or it could be changing as it goes along and then dies out. Way to many variables to call anything.
My bottom line will be to watch the Wikie and listen to all sides (to include the naysayers before I decided that the time has come.
We will have no yard stick to measure this with, the hive will figure it out.
“Villagers evacuate Bhilwara village to ward off dengue” “Villagers of Lakhola in Bhilwara district today evacuated the entire village in the hope that dengue and chikungunya will be eradicated from their village.The villagers, who have assembled at the Gayatri temple, outside the village , are having their meals together and praying and singing paeans to appease the village diety.Around 21 people in the village are having fever, whose blood samples have been sent for test.Lakhola village has a population of 3,500. www.webindia123.com (look under health)
witness – at 19:42
Oh-hoooo! Well, this should be interesting to see what happens in terms of transmission or lack thereof under these circumstances.
Even if this turns out to be nothing, the reactions by people are fascinating. It’s like watching a slow-motion slide into pandemic.
Albert-at 13:12 Some of the reasons I am closly watching this are No.1: Sheer numbers No.2: The symtoms of dengue and chikugunya closly resemble H5N1. NO 3: The number of health care workers and their relatives being affected. No.4 The fear being shown by the population as in the article above. No.5: The authorities acting as if it is contagious by checking people at airports and borders. No.6 :The rapid and continued increase of the sick ,despite any and all measures taken.No.7: Pigs dying en masse in the same area. No: 8: The fact that when they tested 13,500 cases only 1,530 tested positive for dengue or chikungunya and they admitted “THE REST MIGHT BE INFECTED WITH SOME OTHER VIRUS, BUT WE ARE NOT TESTING FOR ANY OTHERS.”No.9: Cases in Nepal where the mosquito is not suppose to be able to survive. No.10 The hospitals looking just like they would look if it was H5N1. No.11:H5N1 having a previous history in the area. No 12 : The fact that India borders China. No 12 : The hamorraghic component really bothers me. No13: Not even a whisper of it being H5N1.No testing for it . No mention of it anywhere.They are afraid to have anyone even think it might be avian flu. I think this alone is highly suspicious.Nol4:That out of control press conference where the health minister threatened to walk out. And the call for him to resign a few days later. Sounds as if he was breaking ranks and the PTB didn’t like it.No 15 :The later announcement that the chikungunya deaths were not chikungunya but things like heart attack. They had fever, muscle ache, vomiting etc. You would think if someone was having a heart attack they would know the difference.No16: India is at the height of it’s tourist season and they are still in a recession in some parts because of the last time avian flu was present. Farmers are still committing suicide.No17: Underreported deaths and sickness. One village had a sickness tally of about 1000. The reporter said when he visited the village it was much higher. He said there were 2 or 3 people sick in each family.And if you start looking, you will see discrepencies in numbers everywhere.No18: The increase in the panic level. From the headlines to the hospitals to the people.As you stated ,these 2 diseases are suppose to be no big deal. A little time in bed and off you go.Not so here. Thousands (daily) are sick enough to flood the hospitals.No 19: And as in 1918 ,large groups of people from places like colleges and the army are getting sick. Again something that says it’s contagious.AIIMS college has been shut down. And there were 20 students from a medical teaching facility that were hospitalized.No 20: I said a day or so ago,to watch for India’s neighbors declaring dengue. China issued an alert today . Why not? It’s working for India.Time will tell ,as the thousands of tourists return home. So, for these reasons, I belive India bears watching.
New Delhi, October 13 The nationwide dengue toll has doubled during the past six days from 46 to 92. There seems to be no end to the worries of public health experts as 484 fresh dengue cases have been reported from various parts of the country in the past 24 hours.
The rise in the number of cases of dengue from 4,253 yesterday to 4,737 today is significant in comparison to the daily increase in cases. In Delhi and adjoining areas, 92 fresh cases of dengue have been reported in the past 24 hours, increasing the number of cases from 1,186 to 1,278.
anonymous – at 18:24
CFR of 2% would be accurate if all the living cases were home and healthy. How many of the current cases are mortalities waiting to happen.
As Anon_451 – at 18:30 points out, even if 2%(unlikely not to rise), it is much greater than normal dengue CFR of 0.5%
Maybe it is super-dengue?
Witness at 23:03 — very well stated. I’m sure none of us here want this to be h5n1 (most of us wishfullly hope it will just mutate itself out of harms way). However, the situation in India just does not fit the traditional model of dengue.
Oremus— yes, a super (or new variant) of dengue could explain what we are observing.
But my question continues to be; are they testing for h5n1? If not, why not?!!
Witmess at 23:03 on 13 Oct :
“No.1: Sheer numbers” I cannot agree with this. A couple of hundred or thousand of cases of dengue are not inexplicable for a mosquito borne disease like dengue or chickunkunya. There are ten million inhabitants in Delhi alone and about a billion in India.
“No.2: The symtoms of dengue and chikugunya closely resemble H5N1.” Only to some extent. There were to my knowledge no symptoms involving the respiratory system. By the way: I took a local friend to the hospital last year because he tought he had dengue. After blood tests he was positively diagnosed with hepatitis A. Whenever someone here gets high fever, we often suspect dengue. Antibodies for dengue show up only aftyer a period of time, so the only indication that it is dengue is the low blood platelet count.
“NO 3: The number of health care workers and their relatives being affected.”
I am playinmg advocate of the devil here, but why would HCW not be bitten by Aedes mosquitoes ?
“No.5: The authorities acting as if it is contagious by checking people at airports and borders.”
I did not see any checking done in the international airport in New Delhi two days ago for departing passengers and eight days ago for arriving passengers.
“No.6 :The rapid and continued increase of the sick ,despite any and all measures taken.”
Measures to control mosquitoes are being taken in India. But there surely remain many millions of breeding grounds for mosquitoes in the cities and villages and in the surrounding agricultural areas and jungle. I read an interesting article that also male mosquitoes who never suck blood have also been found to carry the dengue virus. This means that the virus is transmitted through the eggs. This is a new and significant development because it was assumed that female mosquitoes had to be infected from sucking blood of an infected human. This fact alone could explain the increase in cases.
“No.9: Cases in Nepal where the mosquito is not suppose to be able to survive.”
Why not ? I have been to the Southern part of Nepal, in the lowlands and valleys, and the ecosystem there is identical to India or Bangladesh.
“No 12 : The hamorraghic component really bothers me.”
A small percentage of dengue patients develop the haemorrhagic form. Those are the patients who are at risk of dying. The current hypothesis is that people who already survived a dengue episode and who get reinfected with another subtype of the virus are at risk of developing the haemorrhagic form. A wealthy local friend of mine relocated to Canada only because he was worried to get dengue a second time. Both my wife and one of my sons had dengue a couple of years ago but I cannot relocate for professional and economical reasons.
Believe me that I am also worried about an H5N1 H2H pandemic. I have prepped to some extent and watch the news closely. And a big pack of Tamiflu is at the ready. But I do not believe that the present situation in India or anywhere else in South Asia at this moment is IT.
Albert—why the panicked response by the citizens and the govt.? Surely India is on a firt name basis w/dengue after all these centuries. And, why are the test resluts for dengue so relativcely low? I could buy that it’s not h5n1 if you marketed it, but what is it? and why is the death rate so high?
Enza : “and why is the death rate so high?”
We don’t know what the real fatality rate is. Only the serious cases are brought to the hospitals, the rest is treated at home.
There is a real concern due to the epidemic outbreak of dengue. We had an epidemic three years ago in Dhaka, with hundreds of cases per day, and then it suddenly fell back to the “normal” levels of endemicity. I and my family have a genuine interest in following the situation closely because we live in the middle of it ! But I am realy not panicked with what is going on in India.
Albert, may I ask why you “do not believe that the present situation in India or anywhere else in South Asia at this moment is IT.” I can’t for the life of me, no matter how hard I try, discount any situation to not be IT until time tells otherwise. Why are you so sure? I would love to be able to say, “nope, that’s not it” and go on and not worry.
Albert- The dengue numbers are one thing, but the chikungunya numbers that have surpassed 1.3 million in just weeks are another.I think those are big numbers for any disease,but off the charts for dengue or chikungunya. You say there has been no respiratory problems.Check out Pet Persons post at 20:13. (Deaths due to respiratory problems)The authorities have stated publicly they are checking the airports and teams of doctors have been sent to different border areas(not all). But why would they be doing any of that. Really only one reason.The altitude in Nepal is too high for the mosquito to live. Different parts of India, not just Nepal have again stated that their areas did not have to be concerned, and then cases stated showing up.And Albert, and the whole world if you’re listening ,the majority of these cases are not dengue and they are not chikungunya, because they randomly tested 13,500 and only 1,530 tested positive. So based on the symtoms ,what other disease could this be?That really is the question.And Enza -No they are not testing for H5N1.See my post at 1:29.
Reader & Witness : please do not push me in the corner of having to be an H5N1 negationist. I am not. Let’s not think of H5N1 for a second. Pneumonia is a real killer in these parts. So are diarrhoea and malaria, to name just a few. People are malnourished and undernourished and therefore more vulnerable to all kinds of diseases. Poverty causes millions of South Asians to live in unhygienic and crowded conditions. Health services are totally inadequate except for the rich and middle classes. Within this scenario, it is understandable that people are on the lookout for the start of an H5N1 H2H pandemic. But I do not see it. Really, I don’t. Maybe I am naive, but I believe that when the sh.. starts hitting the fan, we will know. It is October now, the start of the cold season. Millions of people are going to get colds and influenza. Let us keep an eye on events, OK, but without undue panick please.
“Dengue in Kashmir?” “Four persons have been admitted in the observation ward of the institute with symptoms of dengue fever. The doctor, however, stated that the blood samples of two of the four suspected dengue patients have tested negative, which means they do not carry the infection.The blood test reports of the other two suspected dengue sufferers are still awaited and we will have them by tomorrow,the doctor said.In order to monitor and stop the probable entry of persons who might be carrying with them the infections for the dreaded dengue fever, the state administration has deputed a team of doctors who scan tourists at the lakhenpur check post.DOCTORS SAY THAT THE PARTICULAR SPECIES OF MOSQUITOES THAT CARRY THE VIRUS IS NOT FOUND IN THE VALLEY AS THE TEMPERATURES HERE ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR ITS SURVIVAL.----- This article is dated Oct 12---- I think it hits home 3 of my points.Many(most)of these people don’t have denque.The checkpoints are very transparent. Kashmir, so far , is relatively unaffected and they are trying to keep it that way . And Kashmir doesn’t have dengue because the mosquitoes that carry it are not found there.So, if it’s not dengue and people are starting to get sick in Kashmir with similar symptoms, what is it?
This article is from www.rediff.com I’m sorry about not knowing how to post the address properly.I will try and have someone come over to show me how.Sorry, I am brand new at this.
So, this could be regular flu with dengue and chikungunya mixed in, just for arguements sake. And of course, regular flu kills people too. But there is no mention that it could even be regular flu. They just can’t say the “f” word.
Albert, there is no argument to be won here. What I see may be different from what you see,but it makes no difference really.Neither one of our opinions amount to much as far as H5N1 is concerned.I am not trying to win an argument or make you see things my way.I am just really concerned.It’s kinda like seeing smoke and believing there might be a fire and people might be in danger. I really do think I see smoke. So I am just trying to alert others.Based on the events in India I have finished my preps.I have gained so much from this site and the wonderful and caring people who have posted here that I felt it was the least I could do to help if I could. It really helps that these news articles are in English!So, let’s just keep doing what we do as long as we can.So, come out of that corner and take the gloves off. We are all on the same team.
Albert, I didn’t mean to put you on the defensive, I just don’t agree with you. Everything you said about India, we realize. I’m just asking why they aren’t questioning what else this could be. Why are they so sure it’s dengue or chikungunya. And because they are not questioning it, that has me more worried than if they were to say it could also be flu. You can rationalize it all you want, but that doesn’t change the fact that they are ignoring other possibilities. You said that millions will be getting colds and flu, why can’t they say that. Reading between the lines, that means to me that they are afraid of something.
witness : I agree completely. There is a fine line between being concerned and overly worried. I am concerned and attentive. I check the Flu Wikie and CurEvents daily but do not read all the threads like I used to do until a few months ago. My blood pressure is already high without worrying about ducks feeling unwell in Panama or the lack of news out of Papua New Guinea. As it happens, I was offered a two-month consultancy in PNG just yesterday and I am still pondering a reply. If I go, I will report from there :)
Thank you, witness, for your concern. And thank you, Albert, for your point of view. I pray that this subsides.
Pakistan is now reporting an outbreak of dengue.(Another border country of India) Please read new thread:DENGUE OR AVIAN FLU?
witness —
I can tell you how to post a link to your articles. I apologize if I am making it too simple; I will just pretend you are my mom and you take what you can from my directions! (-:
When you have the article on the screen, go to the top where the website address is. (Where it says http://www. etcetcetc) Copy (by highlighting the address from the www part on. So, copy the www.redriff.com plus whatever else is in the address.)
Then go to the fluwikie site and to the thread you want to post on. Paste what you just copied into your message.
People won’t like that because it causes sidescroll of course, so the nex thing to do is use the tiny url service to make the web address smaller. Go down to the blue box at the bottom of the thread where it says “Basic Editing” Text Formatting” and so on. Go down to the part that says ii. “Use the tiny url service”. Click on the red “tiny url service” and that will take you to a new web page. Paste in your web address that you previously copied (the www.redriff.com-etc.) and hit “enter” and then copy the new link that the service gives you. It will look like this —www.fhgt564. Something nice and short. Then you paste THAT into your message.
I hope you can do this, because I am trying to find the articles you post but I can’t find them. And they seem too important to miss!
Albert - you have stated your counter points well and they are so noted. However, I think we get overly concerned about “not panicking”. I would kindly ask that you not worry about everyone else’s anxiety level. Leave it to each of us individually to decide if we are worried or not. Period. It’s bad enough the government works so hard to “soften” info so as not to make us “worried”. I don’t need anyone else doing that for me too. If it happens much more than is already happening..I might as well just live with ear plugs on and blinders. I am a rational CALM person and I will choose when and over what to be alarmed or concerned about. While it is not healthy to be on a state of readiness constantly… it is also not a good idea to not pay attention to evidence of impending danger. Each of us must decide if the signs are truly worrisome - or not.
What does it matter to you if I am concerned about the situation anyway? If you are not… then great… have a nice relaxing day.
Albert: Thank you for your posts. It is helpful to have many views of a situation, especially from someone living in the area. I hope you will keep posting when you can, and giving information regarding any Flu testing if you hear about it. Thanks, Niah :)
witness – at 23:03 Very nice post…I stand by my two weeks and counting as I agree with all of your points above. This is more than mighty suspicious virus activity that will be hard to hold down for another week. 1 week to go (plus or minus a few days) and we will know… The 1918 pandmic did not make an even sweep and had outbreaks simultaneously in geographically dispersed areas for that is how seeding works. In some spots it travel the trade routes as well, which we are seeing now. If the school of virri has changed direction towards humans as schools of fish change direction for survival, the numbers we’ll see by next week will be convincing. Hopefully, I wont stop back until then.
“”“KARACHI: Experts warn of major outbreak: 34 confirmed dengue positive”“”
By Mukhtar Alam
”KARACHI, Oct 13: As many as 34 of the nearly 200 patients admitted to four hospitals in the city since October 1 are confirmed to have contracted dengue fever, while blood test reports of many others admitted to government hospitals are yet to be received.
According to the data gathered by Dawn on Friday, the Liaquat National Hospital, Jinnah Postgraduate Medical Centre, Aga Khan University Hospital and “”“Civil Hospital Karachi received a total of 189 patients with a history of high-grade fever and bleeding from nose and gums from October 1 to 13, out of whom five succumbed to their diseases.”“” [snip]
In the meantime, the focal person for dengue fever monitoring exercise in Sindh, Capt Dr Abdul Majid, who is Additional Health Secretary, Sindh, has said that the number of patients with suspected VHF admitted to private and public sector hospitals between June 1 and October 13 had crossed the figure of 650 while the death toll stood at 17.
[snip]
He said that as many as “”“116 patients aged between six and 82″”“ years had been admitted since June 14. Out of them, six died due to the severity of disease while 83 recovered and were discharged. These patients suffered from symptoms ranging from “”“bleeding, diarrhoea and vomiting to abdominal pain.”“” ”
[snip]
The EDO Health, Dr A. D. Sajnani said that “”“about 127 suspected VHF cases had been admitted to different hospitals in the city during the last one week, and they were under observation. “As per my information, about 16 such patients have died in hospitals so far,” he added.”“”
“”“Comment”“” : Patients seem to be presenting with a variety of symptoms; notice “High-Grade Fever” in one paragraph, and no mention of fever in another. (Only bleeding and abdominal pain)
Also, The age range is somewhat different than the H5N1 cases that been reported in Indonesia for the the past several months. These cases in Pakistan are not very small children like so many of the patients in Indo have been. (Notice the range in one paragraph is ages 6 to 82).
The youngest children, 1 year to 5 years old, are some of the most effective germ-spreaders there are, if it were a type of Flu. (I know, I have two between these ages). They have so far seemed to have avoided this virus, thankfully. But this leads to another question…
Why aren’t smaller children, who I would imagine would playing outdoors even more frequently than most adults, “”“not”“” getting infected? We have had a record summer for monsoon rains in Tucson this year, and the mosquitos have exploded. I spray my boys before we play outside, but sometimes just getting in our vehicle is enought time for them to get a mosquito bite or two, and mosquitos sure seem to love small children.
Isn’t that strange? I’m trying to reconcile how the younger children are avoiding this infection. It is wonderful, but it doesn’t make sense to me. It really leads me to believe it is “”“not”“ H5N1 for those reasons, but also, could most of this be a virus that isn’t even mosquito-borne?
Any ideas out there?
:) Niah
I need to go back to the sandbox…..I was attempting to “bold” some portions for ease of reading, but I accidentally used double quotes instead of single…oops. It would have been a lot nicer if it had worked… :)
Unless, (DREAD) H5N1 had changed to be even more like the Spanish Flu, and isn’t having the same effect on the younger children as it did on the older children and those with healthier immune systems. What a puzzle this is….
(DREAD) meaning I hope this isn’t H5N1.
Thankyou so much Average Concerned MoM, I will give it a try.
Witness, I share and agree with all your points of concern over the situation in India, and I appreciate your posts. Please continue to post.
Niah, (DREAD) is right. Last time I checked, mosquitoes weren’t prone to pass up the under six set.
Karachi: The health department on Thursday said that presently there are(at least) 124 in house HEMORRGAGE FEVER PATIENTS at different private and public hospitals in the city.--- Another headline :ANOTHER VIRAL HAEMORRHAGIC FEVER PATIENT DIES----Karachi: Another patient of dengue fever died at a private hospital on Saturday. THE PATIENT DIED BEFORE THE CASE COULD BE DIAGNOSED AS HE WAS ADMITTED TO THE HOSPITAL A FEW HOURS BEFORE HIS DEATH.(AND YET THEY STILL LABELED IT DENGUE.)Haemorragic dengue is extremely rare and yet there are 124 people in one city.And when someone dies of a “rare disease” shouldn’t that prompt them to run some tests to make sure that’s what they had.I posted this here because of the connection to India.www.thenews.com.pk/print1/asp?id=28056
No sign of respite from dengue as toll hits 94
There were no signs of respite from dengue fever in India as the death toll mounted to 94 and the total number of patients in the country touched 1,875. Delhi continued to be the worst affected state with 1,373 cases 892 were from the national capital and 481 from adjoining states and 25 deaths, health officials said. ….
The total number of confirmed chikungunya cases stands at 1,610 although the suspected cases are 1.3 million.
Some of the “dengue” suspects are turning up negative for dengue but seem to have some of the same symptoms. The article gives information by districts
“After a case of Dengue was detected in Surankote area of border district Poonch, the heath authorities have so far investigated the samples of 56 suspects in entire Jammu region. Out of these 56 samples taken from five districts 15 samples were negative while the result of 41 samples is still awaited. According to the sources samples of 56 suspects suffering from fever were taken from Jammu, Rajouri, Udhampur, Kathua and Poonch district. …
I think we could be in trouble folks.---“Mystery disease kills 8 in Nepal” --- But this isn’t the scary part,read on.---“An outbreak of an unidentified mystery disease in a remote village claimed eight lives including four children in far west Nepal in the past two weeks,a newspaper reported Sunday. The outbreak of the disease created ‘lots of problems’ for the villagers there and in adjoining villages, as over 400 people were reported sick with the disease.According the the newspaper,those who died showed ‘strange symptoms’that included headaches and respiratory problems. QUOTING LOCAL PEOPLE, THE NEWSPAPER REPORTED THAT THE VICTIMS DIED’WHEREVER THEY CAUGHT THE DEADLY DISEASE.Some died while working in the farms, while others fell dead while grazing cattle,’the newspaper reported.The newspaper quoted Shuvesh Raj Kayastha, Chief or the Zonal hospital in Mahenfranagar,as saying the the disease could be a viral infection. He feared the the disease could be similar to severe acute respiratory syndrome.”---This is on www.webindia123.com click on health and then type in dengue.
Could someone please post this article and the link properly.Thankyou.
DoubleD:
Albert is correct to caution concern and to not let emotion carry us away. This has nothing to do with what one thinks/feels/suspects/believes, etc.
Emotion has no place here. We all need to use the sense we were given to examine the information and to make informed decissions.
Many on the wiki (as admitted in multiple threads) are prone to worry and panic. As was stated by others, just because you fervently believe a pandemic is at the door doesn’t necessarily so.
Until we see sustained H2H, panic is not warranted. There is reason to be concerneed that things “may” happen, but those who allow themselves to panic or who fight to protect others “right” to panic are counterproductive to the efforts of persons seriously watching the landscape for verifiable signs of PHP5N1.
If this doesn’t work, the correct link for my last post has been posted on the news site. http://tinyurl.com/yforua
‘Mystery’ disease kills 8 in Nepal Kathmandu | October 15, 2006 11:15:06 AM IST
An outbreak of an unidentified “mystery” disease in a remote village claimed eight lives including four children in far west Nepal in the past two weeks, a newspaper reported Sunday.
The English language daily Kathmandu Post said that the outbreak of the disease in Belapur village in Dadeldhura district, about 525-km west of the capital, created “lots of problems” for the villagers there and in adjoining villages, as over 400 people were reported sick with the disease.
Kathmandu Post reported that there were no health workers to staff the village health post in Belapur village, and even the district hospital at the district headquarters in Dadeldhura was without a doctor.
According to the newspaper, those who died showed “strange symptoms” that included headaches and respiratory problems.
Quoting local people, the newspaper reported that the victims died “wherever they caught the deadly disease”.
“Some died while working in the farms, while others fell dead while grazing cattle,” the newspaper reported.
The newspaper quoted Shuvesh Raj Kayastha, chief of the Mahakali Zonal hospital in Mahendranagar, about 80-km south of Dadeldhura, as saying that the disease could be a viral infection.
He feared that the disease could be similar to severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)
Is this what you wanted witness?
Edna Mode – at 22:01
My thoughts exactly. This whole business in India/Pakistan/Nepal is a little odd. I just read a new article on these Dengue cases, and the current CFR is 4.5%. Low for H5N1, but high for Dengue. I guess time will tell.
There has been another chemcial leak in Bhopol. Wonder if this could be why people are dying in their tracks in other nearby villages? It’s an odgodly early hour where I’m at and I may not be thinking straight, but here’s the link:
http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/woalert_read.php?id=8000&lang=eng
Nova:
Bhopol is in central India, and the other disease is “far west Nepal”. Also, the accident in Bhopol happened yesterday and the illnesses in Nepal have taken place over the last two weeks. Although SARS did not kill people where they stood. I wonder if that part might not be urban legend.
Six persons died of dengue in Delhi on Sunday, registering the largest number of deaths in a single day in the capital where nearly 1,465 people have been afflicted by the viral disease.
With the death of three patients in the All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS), two at the Guru Teg Bahadur Hospital, and one in Holy Family Hospital, the toll due to the mosquito-borne disease in the capital rose to 35 - the maximum in the country, health officials said.
As many as 92 fresh cases were registered in the Delhi hospitals in the past 24 hours ending 11 am with 61 being admitted at AIIMS. Eight hundred people were screened for dengue at the premier institute of which 61 were admitted and 170 kept under observation.
from promed mail:
“Mystery disease claims 8 lives in Dadeldhura
At least 8 people have died of an unknown disease in a single VDC in the far-western district of Dadeldhura.
Several dozen people in Belapur VDC have been infected with the disease over the last 2 weeks, reports said. The disease has symptoms like severe headache, fever, and cough. Eight deaths have so far been confirmed in the VDC.
More than 500 others have been infected with the mystery disease in Siddhapur, Sikash, and Dhungadh VDCs of the same district. Proper health services are not available in these areas, reports added.
No medical team has yet reached the affected areas from the District Health Office. ProMED-mail <promed@promedmail.org>
[From the description of the illness, a febrile respiratory illness, influenza is high on the list of probable diagnoses, both in Nepal as anywhere else in the world. But that being said, clearly more information on the outbreak is necessary before coming to any conclusions….”)
The is also posted on the News thread. Thought you might be interested. Dandeldhura (the spelling in the news report is incorrect) is only about 50km from the border with India, and about 150km to the south of China.
And of course it is right in the Himalayan range. Why am I not surprised that there are no doctors for hundreds of miles around?
Infectious Encephalitis?
Quote from John Barry’s book :The Great Influenza” Influenza struck so suddenly that many victims could remember the precise instant they knew they were sick,so suddenly that throughout the world reports were common of people who toppled off horses, collapsed on the sidewalk.”
“Until we see sustained H2H, panic is not warranted”
Even then, panic is not “warranted”,
(depending on what gets labelled panic. Peter Sandman and Jody Lanard have written very well about this … “The conference final report included the following paragraph: Public officials often mistake rational reactions by the public in emergency situations for panic, but experience suggests that irrational reactions may be more frequent among public officials than in the public at large.” …)
Sound typical? Bhopal, October 14, 2006 …”Hundreds of villagers from neighbouring Raisen district were rushed to City’s JP Hospital for treatment after they were affected by an unknown gas on Saturday evening. A gas leak, the source of which has yet to be identified, triggered panic in three villages of Raisen district. As a result, a large number of villagers also vacated their houses.”… Though the exact cause of gas leak has yet to be ascertained, locals say either it was a gas leak from a nearby factory in Mandideep or from a tanker carrying ammonia. Another theory — disposal of tear gas by the RAF station at Bangrasia — is also doing the rounds. Experts from Pollution Control Board and Industrial Safety also rushed to the spot to find out the exact cause of gas leak.
After learning about the alleged gas leak, the district administration swung into action and tried to convince the people not to get worried.”…
(I’d think they should first identify the type/source of the gas leak and find out if the public is safe. Trying to get away from an unknown gas, especially around Bhopal, and trying to get medical help for resulting symptoms, sounds pretty rational a public response to me.)
Another quote from The Great Influenza:”In Rio de Janeiro, a man asked medical student Ciro Viera Da Cunha, who waiting for a streetcar, for information in a perfectly normal voice, then fell down dead; In Cape Town ,South Africa,Charles Lewis boarded a streetcar for a three- mile trip home when the conductor collasped,dead. In the next three miles six people aboard the streetcar died, including the driver.”
WItness — I’ve been struck with SEASONAL flu that way. I was fine, was getting ready for work and was walking across the room, had a tickle in my throat, coughed, and it HURT. I had chills five minutes later and pneumonia by the next day. Fever of 103.
Influenza can hit fast and hard, even the regular kind.
In English:
More than 4000 cases of dengue in Panamá, 15 oct
(PL)More than 4000 cases of dengue are reported in Panama, which makes fear an epidemic, in spite of the campaign to eradicate the vectors, sources today informed authorities. Según into the Ministry of Health, the most vulnerable areas to the propagation of the disease are this capital, the district of San Miguelito, Panama the West and the province of Chiriquí. The greater concentration of cases appears in San Miguelito with 591 and the metropolitan region with 432, the medics emphasize. Fuentes alerted on the increase of the infestation indices of the Aedes mosquito aegypti in this capital. The director of the Region Metropolitan of Health, Valentin Corrals, she indicated days back that that situation must to the time of rain and because many people neglect cleaning. The index of normal infestation does not have to surpass the two percent, but in some zones as in the group of judges of Betania the technical head of Control of Vectors of the Ministry of Health surpasses the nine by 100 (9%?). Según, Fernando Vizcaíno, by each detected case has between 10 and 25 people with disease. Of agreement with official data, from 1993 to date near 25 thousand Panamanians have contracted classic dengue. Ante that situation, the government impels a campaign against the Aedes mosquito aegypti, transmitter of the disease. Heads of the Ministry of Health they make fumigations in the areas most prone to the development of vectors. The minister of the sector, Camilo Alleyne, assured that a real danger of a bud of that disease exists, which could cause numerous deaths.For his part, the national director of Promotion of Health, Mayanín Rodriguez, admitted recently that “a classic epidemic of dengue can be approached”.
Comment
This is a translation of the entire article, which is in Spanish.
Cygnet,That’s not what stands out to me. It is the acting and sounding fine one minute and then dropping dead the next.The man on the street (who answered a question in a perfectly normal voice and “fell down,dead”) The conductor( well enough to perform his duties one minute and then dead the next.)If you were speaking to someone normally and they suddenly died wouldn’t you be shocked?That is why the account in India is so grave in my mind.
Dengue toll crosses 100; total cases 5,036
By: PTI October 15, 2006
New Delhi: “ Despite government claims about intensive awareness and cleanliness drives, dengue cases continue to soar in the country with the death toll touching 102 and 161 fresh cases being reported, taking the total number of those afflicted with the disease to 5,036. Delhi reported three more deaths in the past 24 hours, while 92 fresh cases were reported. Two senior citizens and a youth, who were being treated for dengue, died at the All India Institute of Medical Sciences in the past 24 hours ending 8 am, officials said. Kunwar Singh (70) from Delhi’s Rajapuri, Muzafar Iqbal (60) from Uttar Pradesh’s Muzaffarnagar and Manoj Singh (30) Haryana’s Gurgaon died at the AIIMS in the last 24 hours. With 92 more patients admitted to hospitals across the capital in the last 24 hours, the total number of people afflicted with dengue has risen to 1,465, Municipal Health Officer N Yadav said. Of the total 92 new patients afflicted with the disease, 61 are admitted in AIIMS, Medical Superintendent D Sharma said, adding that 32 patients were discharged today. Another 170 people are under observation at AIIMS for suspected dengue.
According to National Vector Borne Disease Control Programme, 161 fresh cases were reported in the last 24 hours in the country. The figure now stands at 5036. The government confirmed 96 deaths across the country.
Witness — but that doesn’t mean this outbreak is pandemic flu. THere are a NUMBER of diseases that fit this profile. Off the top of my head — seasonal flu in a very weakened population, pneumonic plague, (as Tom DVM mentioned) japanese encephalitis, SARS, a hantavirus, measles, etc. I’m certainly forgetting a few.
If this is H5N1 gone pandemic, we will KNOW within a few short days. Most of the rest of the possibilities are not really pandemic threats.
It’s worth watching — and I’m mulling over a prep run tomorrow — but honestly, it’s too early to tell and there’s no sense in screaming, “It’s pandemic flu!” yet and scaring everyone. Cry wolf often enough and people get fatigued about panflu and stop listening.
There are two separate events unfolding here. The dengue fever and the Nepal 8 deaths. I really hope folks will take a deep breath and listen to Albert on the many dengue fever cases. He is there — he knows the country. I’ve had the good fortune to travel to India on two occasions and it is so far different that North America or Europe that it is beyond words to describe. It really is a different reality — but I have a very hard time thinking that all those very smart Indian doctors, nurses, lab workers, public health people wouldn’t be tuning into cases that were H5N1 instead of dengue (on respiratory stuff alone). It’s a dengue outbreak in a country that has had dengue historically. (Occam’s razor). India is NOT Indonesia — or China.
The Nepal 8 are far more worrisome. Tom DVM suggests infectious encelphalitis — there could be some other nastys in play in a region that has no water treatment, no vaccinations for children, no heat but wood, and no medical services (and no money to pay for services if there are).
Let’s dial back the worry level a tad — the next week will be interesting, but we’ve been here before (confirmed clusters in Turkey, Karo, etc).
India News
‘’‘Chikungunya enters Bengal, more dengue cases Kolkata, Oct 15′’‘ :
At least two cases of chikungunya fever have been confirmed in West Bengal while more dengue patients have been admitted to hospitals.
The state government has confirmed that two of the seven blood samples sent to the National Institute of Virology (NIV) in Pune for detection of the chikungunya virus had tested positive.
[snip]
“ According to official figures, around 1,500 people in about 15 villages in Baduria and Swarupnagar are down with fever. “
Dengue is caused by a virus spread by the female Aedes aegypti mosquito that breeds in clear stagnant water. It is marked by high fever, skin rashes and joint pain. A sharp drop in blood platelet counts can prove fatal.
Chikungunya, marked by pain in joints, is caused by a virus that is also spread by the same type of mosquito.
[snip]
Meanwhile, one person at Lalbag in Murshidabad district and six people in Kolkata also tested positive for dengue Friday last, reports said.
[snip]
Though the mayor said the situation was not alarming, especially compared to the previous year when some 1,000 people were affected and 12 deaths occurred, more cases were reported since.
With regards to the questions about the dengue fever (or whatever) not affecting the very young .. if you read about dengue fever (try wikipedia), there are several varieties (which also makes it difficult to eradicate / vaccinate for) so a person could have more than one attack in a lifetime - immunity is built from each attack to that particular ‘strain’ only. It is assumed that, as further attacks take place, there is a greater chance that the haemorraghic form will prevail. Death from the straight-forward forms of dengue are rare but the H form is, sadly, devastating. Following this to its logical conclusion, it does explain why the deaths are most often in the elderly.
What amazes and amuses me is that this time last year, when the same level of dengue and chik were no doubt happening in these same regions, we probably didn’t even notice them! However, concern is real and genuine and we are well aware that another mixing bowl for our H5N1 friend is not needed - if these people are already weakened by other viruses and diseases when the flu season starts ..
This thread is too long - starting a new one India II
Closed to maintain server speed.