Is H5N1 turning out to be a fizzler - ie - no real threat - where is the pandemic?
Perhaps you should go here and read a bit more.
Oh, unfortunately, a pandemic influenza year is more of a threat than it was twelve months ago, or a month, or a week ago, cmo111.
Better to get ready for the worst,
(you are getting ready, we’d hope, since, if it starts, it would then be too late to prepare -but, “hope” is not a plan, and plans are nothing without tangibles, actions, and, others getting ready to address community contigencies)
since it could still break out at any time, at current fatality rate,
(when we can’t handle any surge at all, really; not even a “1918 cfr”)
and we will wish we never had to go through such a thing if we see it.
Egypt’s cfr is not good (and, a 15-year old just died of H5N1), and there are so many other nations, mammal species, and sick people it may be in, that no one ever see nor tests, that it could go pandemic and we’d only know because it comes knocking.
The Pandemic Velocity Calculations thread may be in order, too.
We don’t have the surge capacity to handle even a 1957-type pandemic, do we?
Many hospitals in the U.S. don’t have the surge capacity on any given day. Many hospitals are 80 to 90 percent full on a daily basis.
I volunteer at a hospital that is located in a town of 24,000 citizens.Census runs 80 to 99 full beds.Don”t know if more than 120 beds could be set up and managed.Seems that “for profit” facilities are operating as lean as possible with very little ability to ramp up patient numbers.If true schools, colleges etc will need to have beds and supplies stockpiled when TSHTF.
i am still prepping and hope ive got enough time left, but like others i have to do it on a limited budget,one question i would like to ask i understand no one really knows,but here goes.
in your honest opinions a rough estimate how long do you all think with whats happening in egypt,got left before we have a pandemic.?
DaddY: I am merely a layperson, with enough science background to understand some of the genetics & epidemiology, so my guess is just that, a semi educated guess. But I think 7 to 10 days after the end of Hajj, we will start to see clusters everywhere. (Hajj ends Jan 3) There is one thing upon which this prediction is most dependent, and that is that the virus has mutated enough that it is now capable of H2H. According to Niman’s data, it has acquired those genetic characteristics now in Egypt and I think Dijbouti, but I’m not sure where else. But it seems like even a handful of pilgrims from Egypt carrying the H2H capable strain gather in tight quarters for several days with hundreds of thousands of other pilgrims, that could be quite an effective flashpoint. And the fact that after those few days of close exposure these pilgrims hop on planes and travel back to countries all over the world during the stage where they are asymptomatic but shedding virus…well, if it doesn’t happen then we are damn lucky.
I don’t worry too much, or spend too much time wondering when it will errupt. No one can ever be certain. Ten years is nothing for a virus. It doesn’t make sense to be spastic, but it also doesn’t make sense to think it is no longer a threat. Anywhere there are crowds of millions like the Haj, with people coming from areas with the H5N1 still evolving and mixing, possibly infecting others, and then dispersing. It will either be a possible threat for years to come, or if no new human cases emerge for a long period of time, blessedly, a dud. No one can predict with complete accuracy what way it will go.
Daddy, the best advise I’ve seen here on timing is: Prep as well as you can believing it’s going to be announced on the next news hour. Start with the basics and work your way down your list, one day at a time. And be sure and give thanks everytime we dodge another outbreak.
The thing that bothers me about H5N1 is human nature.. Hiding possibly infected poultry under beds, throwing them into the Nile, smuggling them to other areas. When a few Indonesians with the H5N1 virus who were being adequately cared for pulled a runner I realized how impossible it would be to have complete control over this. People are too stubborn and ignorant. There is just so much that the authorities can do. It won’t be any different here, we in the U.S. are just as stubborn and just as ignorant. But that doesn’t mean that we are certain to have a pandemic. All of those who watch this are at least hyper aware and somewhat prepared if or when it does explode.No matter how much or little you have done you are knowledgable, ahead of the game.
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Am concerned about the current Type A flu virus out there. We had the first reported case here in Jersey two days ago, so I expect it to explode once the schools reopen after New Years. Does anyone know what varient is causing the current outbreak?
In Jersey specifically, I wouldn’t know diana but DemFromCT posted a chart on weekly surveillance in the US that tells us what strains have been found so far. Here is the link… [[http://www.newfluwiki2.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=590|INFLUENZA VIRUSES ISOLATED BY WHO/NREVSS Collaborating Laboratories
2006 - 2007 Season]] and here is the link for the CDC Weekly Report
Hope that helps.
oops, one too many [ doesn’t work too well. The link will be fine anyway, just messy- sorry!
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