From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: It is Too Quiet

JWB?12 December 2006, 20:20

It is too quiet…..

….it doesn’t matter if I have my custom tin foil hat on or off……

….all I hear is my blood pulsating through my ears…..

…..this is one bad ass virus, it’s into PysOps.

Bronco Bill12 December 2006, 21:31

PysOps?!?

Texas Rose?12 December 2006, 23:54

Is that anything like “piss off”?

I’ve been seeing articles about the virus in the paper recently. I can’t decide if the official word is there’s nothing to be worried about or if they have no idea whether or not we should be worried.

And I’ll just keep prepping for whatever happens and watching the swans.

Sailor13 December 2006, 00:01

Bronco Bill — 12 December 2006, 21:31

I think he means: psychological operations

JWB?13 December 2006, 07:26

I proof read that post three times. I give up!

OKbirdwatcher13 December 2006, 10:16

JWB,

Not sure if it matters whether it’s quiet or not. I think a pandemic may very well just smack us upside the head with little or no warning. For me, following every illness, all over the world, is exhausting. However, I can’t look away either ;)

I’m-workin’-on-it13 December 2006, 10:27

OKbirdwatcher, I know what you mean! It rattles your nerves at times — most of the time actually.

I was off the computer yesterday and missed you guys….I’m getting ready for a road trip to transport a choc lab from 2 states over (someone else will do that part) to Alabama then I’ll take her to Georgia on her way to NY for rescue there! Never done anything like this before, so I’m getting ready with a food list & getting the car in shape, etc. Should be an adventure.

OHMYGOD!!! I was going to sign off and noticed that my enter code is 666!!! Maybe I shouldn’t post this post after all!

Anyway, I’m here throughout the day, stay in touch!

cottontop?13 December 2006, 11:12

I’m-Working-On-it Where in NY are you going to? (with the 666 enter code, it’s a good thing your not leaving today.;-)

cottontop?13 December 2006, 11:17

In a way, I’ll be glad when the holidays are over, so I can start my preps. We used cash this year for christmas, so we won’t have credit card bills rolling in next year. (hmmm, wonder why I did that? ;-) I posted my 2007 Tasks to be done, and I would like some feed back on my list, and what your tasks are for next year. I think your already set for the next two years! ;-) (oh I want those smiley faces that CE has!) Have a great day.

cottontop?13 December 2006, 11:19

geeze, my tasks are posted on the new forum in my sandbox. (maybe I’ve had too much coffee!)

I’m-workin’-on-it13 December 2006, 12:58

Cottontop! You’re doing fine over there! Glad you’re stopping by here to see us laid-back folks!

I’m not actually going to NY, just the chocolate lab! I’m picking her up somewhere near Mobile, AL & taking her to Georgia to hand off to the next person who will take her another distance, then pick up 2 other dogs & then they will all be transported together to the rescue group in NY. We’ll personally only be on the road about 14 hours or so, to drive to the first pick-up place, backtrack halfway back up the interstate, turn right & head for Georgia, then backtrack again to get back home!! We’ll be driving in one big triangle! I’ve got people watching the house since I’ll be gone so long & we have our alarm system, etc. You’d think I was going away on a cruise, but I haven’t left my 4 little guys for more than probably 3 hours at a time, since my last little boy-cat died in September. So I’m apprehensive & overly protecting the house & the cats probably, but I’m also looking forward to the adventure.

Good for you for paying in cash this year!!! I’m shooting for that next year! I’ll take a look at your sandbox over there & see what you’re cooking up for the new year!

Now my enter code is the prefix of my phone number!!! This is getting spooky — the forum is talking to me!!!!

cottontop?13 December 2006, 13:15

IWOI LOL!!! Don’t ask what number is going come up next! The Forum will show you> ooo weee ooo

I’m-workin’-on-it13 December 2006, 13:20

It’s like a magic 8 ball isn’t it!!!???

Here’s what I wrote for you over at the new site:

I’ve been thinking that if you’re planning to SIP before danger approaches, then planning ahead for food, water and the space to store it where it can be used effectively is very important, maybe even more so than medicines since you’re planning on SIP while you’re still healthy, so if money is an issue, stock the regular OTC stuff & don’t splurge on the Tamiflu and stuff like that till you have other things in place!

And you can spend time making those lists now — I’m always seeing something on TV that triggers me remembering something that I want to get or do to plan ahead for our survival. I keep a little spiral notepad in each room with it’s own pen so I can write the stuff down without having to leave the room. Then when we’re traveling in the car or I’m watching tv or something, I’ll gather them up and add all the little ideas to one big main list.

Also, make a list of phone numbers to keep one in the car and one in the house for contractor repairs, medical help, boarding kennels, hotels nearby that are taking proactive precuations to protect guests (should you need to leave your house or have family coming in that need to stay somewhere), camping grounds contact numbers should you need to abandon your home, etc.

You’ve got a good handle on what you’re planning to accomplish! I pray that you’ll maintain the energy to get it all done!

Rose

cottontop?13 December 2006, 13:47

IWOI- Great tips. You know, I seem to have a flood of ideas come to me when I’m driving. Writing and driving is not recomended ;-) I found a small hand held tape recorder at a garage sale this past spring, and it’s been a godsend. I only paid 3 bucks for it, and it works like a charm. The list of phone numbers is an excellant idea. Hubby and I have discussed “bugging out”. It’s still on open discussion for us, but phone numbers are invalueable no matter what. Thanks for your input. We have one chance to prepare, because when it hits, there is no more prepping. This quietness is a little eerie, and looking at other blogs, it seems that people are thinking it has disappeared. And that makes me very nervous. You know how people are when they think something is no longer a threat. I’m very thankful for having found this place, and learning that the threat is still very real. With you good folks here to encourage me when my energy (mentally and physically) gets low, I’ll get it done. I have to.

I’m-workin’-on-it13 December 2006, 13:54

You will get it done! Every day that we’re not either bombed with viruses or Avian Flu or martians is a great day!

You just have to pick a category to work on and work on it a little, then move to the next,etc., to make certain you don’t get prep-fatigue. It’s easy to get bogged down, so just don’t fall into the habit of saying “I can’t do this until I do that…” because there’s always another area where you can make progress if one slows down!

cottontop?13 December 2006, 14:02

yes, your right. I have a bad habit of staying with one area of prep, then I get frustrated because I haven’t even began on the next area. I try to pick one thing from each catagory to add to my list when I get groceries. Small items, like a box of bandaids, a extra bag of rice, a roll of tape, ect.

I’m-workin’-on-it13 December 2006, 14:23

I know what you mean — this is the FIRST time that my ADHD has worked FOR me so totally! I can ‘flit’ from one thing to another, rather than focus on one thing till it’s finished. Go figure!

Little Kahuna?13 December 2006, 14:37

Bird flu remains a grave threat, expert warns 12:00 AM CST on Tuesday, December 12, 2006 JIM LANDERS GLOBAL BEAT MANILA, Philippines – Dr. Takeshi Kasai is a lean, graying and worried flu hunter. He’s got news about his adversary, and it’s not good. “I am personally very scared,” he said. “No, wait. I am translating that directly from the Japanese word. Let me say I am personally very concerned.” The bird flu virus is still killing, still spreading, and still mutating. In recent weeks, it’s reappeared in Korea and flared in Somalia, Cote d’Ivoire, Ukraine and Russia. The death toll among birds, both those infected and those killed to avoid the spread of the disease, exceeds half a billion. Deaths among humans are at 154, with nearly half of those occurring this year. Yet “bird flu fatigue” has set in among the media and government health ministries, said Dr. Kasai, a Japanese disease tracker who is an adviser to the World Health Organization’s Western Pacific office here. There are plans drafted for containing any human-to-human outbreak. There are stockpiles of antivirals in many countries. “What we need to do is more or less clear. But whether people are preparing is another question,” he said. National response plans and a global plan for trying to isolate the first outbreak are written. Some have already been tested. The weakness Dr. Kasai sees is the lack of adequate preparation for a mutation of the H5N1 bird flu virus that the WHO says could spread across the world in a matter of weeks, infecting as many as 2 billion people and killing anywhere from a few million to 100 million people. “If the disease spreads everywhere, governments are more and more limited,” he said. “In a pandemic, you will get no help from your neighbors.” And this is a truly wicked disease. It can sear the lungs like poison gas and cause massive bleeding from the mouth, eyes and other orifices. OK. We’ve been scared by this prospect before. Bird flu might never mutate into a form that threatens widespread human illness. And we’ve been preparing. President Bush unveiled a national response plan in May. The Dallas County Department of Health and Human Services has a plan, Southern Methodist University has a plan, and lots of other institutions and companies have plans. Dr. Kasai wonders how many households have stocks of food and water that you would want on hand in the event of a natural disaster or major homeland security threat. And what about the hospitals? “When SARS broke out, it was the medical facilities that were the venue for infection,” he said. “They have to be able to maintain the ability to serve the sick without spreading the disease. But if everyone crowds into the hospitals, it will be very difficult.” It’s not just complacency that worries Dr. Kasai. The virus is changing. This fall, the disease spread from one person to another in an Indonesian family of eight. The first member of the family sickened had contact with infected birds, but the rest caught the disease from each other. When bird flu first started killing people, about 80 percent of those infected died. The lethality has dropped to about 60 percent. Cases reported outside of Indonesia have a better than 50 percent chance of survival. Normally, that’s good news. But bird flu needs a living host to undergo the genetic mutations that can spread it from one person to the next. The host also needs to be well enough to circulate, coughing and sneezing and touching, to ignite a pandemic. So the less lethal the virus, paradoxically, the more dangerous it becomes. The Spanish flu epidemic of 1918 killed just 2 percent of those infected, but that death toll was estimated at 50 million or more. Dr. Kasai is concerned about vaccine developments as well. The strain of H5N1 virus that infected people in Turkey, Iraq and much of Asia this year has been susceptible to the experimental vaccine developed by U.S. and other scientists. But with six other subtypes, most of them appearing in Indonesia, the vaccine doesn’t seem to be effective. There are lots more supplies of the antivirals Tamiflu and Relenza than there were at the beginning of the year, but that’s still far short of what would be needed to treat most of those who could be infected. “It’s not realistic to think we could secure antivirals for everyone,” Dr. Kasai said. “But there are many other things we could be doing – secure medical, fire and police services, food and water stocks, company disaster plans. “We have to continue to move forward. The bird flu situation has not changed.” E-mail jlanders@dallasnews.com

I’m-workin’-on-it13 December 2006, 14:51

….”But bird flu needs a living host to undergo the genetic mutations that can spread it from one person to the next. The host also needs to be well enough to circulate, coughing and sneezing and touching, to ignite a pandemic. So the less lethal the virus, paradoxically, the more dangerous it becomes.”…..

That quote from the article that Little Kahuna posted above is exactly the problem & if the media understood that, we’d hear a LOT more about this whole issue all the time.

cottontop?13 December 2006, 15:31

You know, I keep think that after 9/11, people would start stocking, and after SARS, and the Antrax scare we had here in NY, and the ice storm of ‘98 we went throught, and the blackout we had here a few years back. I mean, when are people going to get it, that there will come a time, that you are going to have to take care of yourself/family? I know people who don’t keep any stock because they honestly believe others will help them out and they will be taken care of. I have a client, that is one of those minded people. I used others emergency situations to stress my point, but she is convienced they have enough friends who will help her family out.

DC?13 December 2006, 16:09

yes its very quiet but a search on google news for avian flu- shows its not that quiet, daily tons of BF stories being released

Green Mom?13 December 2006, 18:29

The quiet is eerie but I’m glad of it. I admit to feeling some “flu fatigue” and have really shifted into low gear as far as prepping goes this month. We’ve either done hand-made gifts or bought small things for folks-no nasty bills rolling in January for us! But I’ve had the feeling all along that it would probably be a little later- Febuary is my “Target Month”

Cottontop, I agree with you about you would think people would stock up after the disasters. I allways have kept supplies, but for me it was Kartrina that really brought home how much we will have to rely on ourselves in an emegency.

I also get my best ideas driving. Fortuanatly, I tend to have a child in the car to jot down things in a notebook I keep on my dashboard-next to the hand sanitizer!

cottontop?13 December 2006, 19:16

Green Mom- I’d hate to translate my 4 year old’s handwiting! My 13 year old’s is bad enough. Whatever happen to pride in penmanship?

MILT-ADIRONDACKS?13 December 2006, 20:08

COTTONTOP-MAYBE YOUR 13 YR OLD COULD GO TO MED SCHOOL. PENMANSHIP IS NOT A REQUIREMENT. FYI, I LIVE NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN

cottontop?13 December 2006, 20:17

hey there milt. I’m near clayton, and we are snowless(yea!) and in the mid 40′s (yea!) how about you? have you been to the new forum yet?

MILT-ADIRONDACKS?13 December 2006, 21:06

COTTONTOP-JUST A LITTLE WHITE LAST WEEK. PONDS ARE FROZEN BUT NOT LAKES. BEEN TO NEW FORUM-USED TO OLD ONE AND AM MORE COMFY WITH IT. REGARDING QUIET-ONE DAY AT A TIME. HAVE MADE ACQUAITANCE WITH OUR COUNTY NURSE. SHOULD BE INTERESTING. WILL POST IF ANYTHING WORTHWHILE.

Green Mom?13 December 2006, 21:55

Cottontop- I looked for your “tasks list” on the new forum but couldn’t find it.

cottontop?13 December 2006, 21:59

milt- I’m using the quiet time to make my preps list, essential lists for SIP, and catching up on some forum reading. Just take it one day as you said.

Crazy lady14 December 2006, 15:14

My husband just came in — saw me reading the fluwilie board — told me something---and I am furious!!! He told me that a friend of his that is a policeman went to some seminar??????, they told the officers that they do not expect the avian flu to be a problem for at least 5 years. That it had to go through x many mutations and it would take at least 5 years before it would be able to spread to humans. CAN YOU BELIEVE THIS JUNK THESE SO CALLED EXPERTS FROM HELL ARE SPEWING OUT!!! They are the crazy ones not me (us). I tried to explain to my husband how it could not and does not work that way but he shrugged and said he didn’t know. I am going to make it my business to find out what seminar this man attended and who is to BLAME for the misinformation!!! AND THEN!!!!!!

cottontop?14 December 2006, 15:52

crazy lady- It would be great if TPTB knew BF would not hit for 5 years. Hell, I’d be prepped to the hilt for years by then. But, that’s not the way, nature happens. It could possibly be 5 weeks, 5 days, 5 years, or two years or never. NOBODY knows, not even the officers informant. You are right to be upset, and if you find out who’s feeding these people this stuff, please let us know. An injustice has been done to the public. This is not my idea of giving an informative seminar.Go get’em!

Green Mom?14 December 2006, 17:54

I have just had the opposite thing happen to me- I was reading the wiki and saw the info about the Idaho ducks and showed it to my dh. For the first time I saw a little flicker of fear in his eyes- a “Oh my God this is really going to happen” look. really scary. I had not been doing much prepping this month- I have a feeling that after the kids go to bed tonight there will be an intense discusion and the prepping will ramp up.

I WISH BF would hold off another 5 years! Like Cottontop, I’d also be prepped to the hilt. I have a bad feeling though that we don’t have five years….

Anon?14 December 2006, 20:24

Crazy lady? — 14 December 2006, 15:14 My husband just came in — saw me reading the fluwilie board — told me something---and I am furious!!! He told me that a friend of his that is a policeman went to some seminar??????, they told the officers that they do not expect the avian flu to be a problem for at least 5 years. That it had to go through x many mutations and it would take at least 5 years before it would be able to spread to humans. CAN YOU BELIEVE THIS JUNK THESE SO CALLED EXPERTS FROM HELL ARE SPEWING OUT!!!


Nice except for the fact that H5N1 has been undergoing those mutations since 1997.

A little fact left out of the discussion I imagine.

Sailor14 December 2006, 23:01

As far as It being to Quite I love it, the longer that it stays quite the better I like it. If it stayed quite for the next five years and then five more years past that, I would be the happiest preper in Canada.

cottontop?14 December 2006, 23:04

Amen Sailor.

lohrewok15 December 2006, 09:08

Looks like Indo is heating up again.

Newsie15 December 2006, 09:32

Crazy lady, don’t bee too quick to judge what happened in that meeting since you were not there. Your husband’s pal could have heard a piece of information incorrectly, i.e. “While it’s looking less and less like avian influenza will mutate into a pandemic strain this year, it could be up to 5 years before we see even a mild pandemic happen,” or some such thing.

cottontop?15 December 2006, 10:02

Newsie- Even if you are right about the pal getting it wrong, he still needs to be made aware that he got it wrong. Otherwise he’ll continue to not take it take it with a grain of salt.

Newsie15 December 2006, 14:03

Cottontop, agrred but to refer to the people who gave the seminar (in all caps BTW) as “experts from hell” and the “junk they are spewing” out is just too much. She wasn’t even at the seminar.

cottontop?15 December 2006, 14:21

Newsie- Well, yes, true. Some just get alittle more “passionate” about things. I’m sure she ment no harm, and didn’t realize just how upset she was. Frustration is something we all battle here, and from time to time it shows.

janetn?17 December 2006, 00:24

Well its not so quiet now .Indo is getting quite buzy. Tis the season, according to WHO graphs were entering into the buzy season for H5

JWB?17 December 2006, 01:47

Quiet Time is Over.

It is time for a 2 day, stage 3, factor 8, meltdown.

We now return to our regular scheduled programming…….

INFOMASS17 December 2006, 07:40

Assuming that things stay quiet rember that the “realist” critics who say that Panflu is no big deal will usually be right. These things happen at all only once every few decades and in a VERY bad way maybe once every century. What they leave out is the costs of preps vs the costs of being stuck in the “unlikely” event. If the dikes had been properly built a little stronger in New Orleans, Katrina would have been a nuisance, not a tragedy. And how likely was a major hurricane to hit the city? I myself think the odds are worse (i.e. more likely) that a bad panflu will develop sooner now, maybe 10% a year. If correct, investing in better vaccine technology and production and antivirals, as well as prepping, is smart. Deriding such activities is folly.

Kathy in FL17 December 2006, 07:48

To be honest, I’m thankful for “quiet” for a while. Christmas has taken our prep money even though some of the gifts might be considered prep type things.

You probably will only see me around once and a while for the next few weeks. I really have too much on my plate. Bad time of year in the property management business … we’ve already have had 3 break ins and the kids weren’t even out of school yet; and, numerous plumbing and electrical issues as family comes in town and people overload with Christmas decorations.

I’m still just not comfortable over at the new forum though I’m not having any problem posting … it just feels too impersonal for me to get hyper involved like I can here.

So … quiet is a good thing for now.

crfullmoon?17 December 2006, 08:12

“Crazy” lady, can he show his friend who should show the other officers - perhaps outside of the workplace- some better information?

(If there is a blizzard/hurricane/tornado watch - do these police only rely on memos from their boss- whose job may now be to keep officers calm and showing up to work for as long as possible?- to keep informed and their families safe? Bet they look at the tv and internet, weather alert radio and whatever other sources themselves.)

They could print and look at this: [[http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/BJA/pdf/role_law_enforce.pdf|The Role of Law Enforcement in Public Health Emergencies: Special Considerations for an All-Hazards Approach]] pdf

html version …”outlines key concerns that law enforcement officials must address in preparation for a virus-caused pandemic…(1) preparing the department (e.g., maintaining operational continuity), (2) protecting the officers (e.g., educating them about transmission, vaccination, and treatment), and (3) protecting the community (e.g., maintaining public order).”…

Oct 2005: were they shown this, last year?World Health Organization; ten things you need to know about pandemic influenza (need to explain why the first 9 are scientific, and the last one fell by the political wayside a month later?)

(Also from a WHO fact sheet: …In patients infected with the H5N1 virus, clinical deterioration is rapid. In Thailand, the time between onset of illness to the development of acute respiratory distress was around six days, with a range of four to 13 days. In severe cases in Turkey, clinicians have observed respiratory failure three to five days after symptom onset. Another common feature is multiorgan dysfunction. Common laboratory abnormalities, include leukopenia (mainly lymphopenia), mild-to-moderate thrombocytopenia, elevated aminotransferases, and with some instances of disseminated intravascular coagulation.” ( - what if they had just said “some turn purple and black as they die”? )

This WHO timeline only goes from 1996 to May 2006, but, looks good enough I may print it out myself; to show a few people who haven’t heard all the countries and species and don’t think things have gotten any more concerning:

H5N1 Timeline

Crazy lady, I also like the Gartner Fellow interview from Dec 2005 with Dr.Nabarro, but

I was reminded of that recent tv bit on NOVA - was it NOVA?; the one explaining virus Hs and Ns as keys and swords that made such a good explanation- where’s that? -

(off for more coffee - but if someone finds that, that was a pretty good segment )

Crazy lady - I also forget what part of the world you’re in; we all can try and find you some region-specific stuff your police might find of interest.

I’m-workin’-on-it17 December 2006, 09:05

good work crfullmoon! Hope that helps!

Kathy, I know you’re busy, and I understand your comment about the new forum very well. I hope you’ll stick with it because to lose you in the shuffle would be a tragedy of great proportion. You are such a great contributor, and big issues have been made when Tom or M disappeared from here and there probably won’t be that same issue made here now because a lot of people are gone from here, but please know your loss would rank as high as the loss of the other big names from here!

The new forum will need you equally as much & your contributions there will help to warm up the environmnet over there!

Wolf?17 December 2006, 10:10

crfullmoon? — 17 December 2006, 08:12

The WHO timeline is an excellent resource, especially given the reticence of that organization to be forthcoming. Thanks.

OKbirdwatcher17 December 2006, 10:57

I refuse to have any kind of meltdown over Indo developments until after Christmas!!!

(My mantra for the next week:-)

Mary in Hawaii?17 December 2006, 14:12

INFOMASS: you said the odds were maybe 10% a year that a bad pan flu will develop now. However, what are the odds when you factor in all the various prerequisites for pandemic that have been falling into place the past few years with H5N1…the virus’ mutations, which now include changes in those key sites which make it able to attach to the upper respiratory tract of both birds and humans, the increasing global spread of b2b H5N1, the increasing spread to mammals, the endemic nature of the virus in many if not most asian countries, particularly those which are crowded, impoverished and have poor health care and hygeine. As each of those factors falls into place, IMO the odds of a pandemic occuring increase. I don’t think we should be looking at how many years since there’s been a pandemic, and how often historically they’ve occured. I think we should be looking at what all the factors are that need to be in place before a pandemic can occur, and how many of these are in place now. Calculate the odds from there. (I personally go with 50/50)

INFOMASS17 December 2006, 14:50

Mary in Hawaii: You could be right. My point was that even if the chance is as low as 10%, preps and accelerated medical research is necessary. (A lot of experts say it will hit in 5–10 years, but I do not think that anyone knows for sure.) If we knew more about viral evolution, we might have a real idea of the odds. As it is, the odds seem high enough to both of us to try to do something unusual, and urge others to as well.

crfullmoon?18 December 2006, 09:12

I’m not willing to risk millions of lives on the say-so of experts - I see no reality-base for the “years” bit.

(And bureaucrats will want to just procrastinate for another five years if they heard that. The virus is in so many places and species it can’t even be monitored. Humans are doing too many things outside the laws -or even outside common sense- that help spread virus vectors.)

Forget complacency now.

INFOMASS18 December 2006, 15:29

crfullmoon: Again, you could well be right that the chances of a bad pandemic outbreak are higher than what some experts opine. (I put it higher myself.) On the other hand, if we say again and again that a tragedy is about to happen and it doesn’t for several years, who will believe us when there IS finally a real danger? And don’t some of us risk getting burned out ourselves with being hyperalert? Since most people buy insurance for small probability events, it is not hard to argue that we should prep and urge more medical investments now for a possible panflu. That way, we do not look like fools if nothing happens. After all, most folks don’t HOPE to cash in on the full value of health insurance! I still think one reason many experts are cautious is because of the 1976 swine flu pandemic that did not happen. I just wish we had President Ford type people in charge instead of the current group.

Bronco Bill18 December 2006, 15:44

Kathy in FL — 17 December 2006, 07:48 ---

Sorry to hear about the break-ins…hope you’re covered.

About the new site—I think one of the things you’ll find really cool is the fact that you can continue to add to any diary you create just by clicking on the Edit function of that diary…and also click on Post A Comment to add to the original conversation that you started.

It really does add quite a bit to the experience…

History Lover?18 December 2006, 17:49

So this public official says we have five years before a pandemic. Well, that’s just great. I can breathe easier and:

1. Take an EMT Course. 2. Buy a gun and learn to shoot. 3. Learn how to can and preserve all the fruit from our fruit trees. 4. Increase our preps from 3–6 months. 5. Secure our property fences. 6. Get another and larger watch dog. 7. Stock the pantry with RWFK.

Of course if he’s wrong . . . Nah, these guys are never wrong, right?

cottontop?18 December 2006, 22:46

History Love- Nope. There never wrong.;-( In the meantime, do you know how many natural disasters/emergecies/power outages, we could have by then? Keep prepping.

History Lover?19 December 2006, 11:08

Cottontop - Will do!

crfullmoon?19 December 2006, 13:01

INFOMASS, “who will believe us when there IS finally a real danger?”

-they won’t have to scramble to act when there is a real danger, if they listen and start prepping now.

Explain things better; don’t let them say Y2K was nothing, SARS was nothing, ect. Explain the difference between the 1 location, 1 soldier Swine Flu and the H5N1 timeline,

list of species, continents, current H5N1 CFR possible, young and healthy; like 1918 but worse because of those alive because of imports and modern medical care, lack of home food production and pantries, ect.

The other things in the wings like untreatable TB, MRSA, mosquito-bourne diseases, what’s in our food, ect; nothing to go on our mindless public way about.

If you aren’t comfortable telling the public to prepare for a known risk the scope of pandemic influenza - what do you want?

‘’‘By the time officials are certain an influenza pandemic year is occurring, it is, by definition, too late to prepare against one.’‘’

It takes a very long time to get prepared for a pandemic influenza year.

Our levels of education, common sense about safety and infection control and critical thinking need work,

our health care infrastructure is already not enough; only people doing well are CEO’s and VIPs.

(I was already hyperalert before 9/11; and since I can’t be blissfully ignorant, I’d rather be a little crispy around the edges than “so out of luck”.)

I don’t call a 10% chance -and that was a while ago- if we knew all the sequences out there today, (impossible to know) I’m sure the odds are even more in pandemic’s favor- an acceptable risk of such a high-impact event. No reason to play russian roulette.

“Accelerated medical research” will still not feed people and keep the power grid up and keep order and put out fires and respond to weather-disasters, so, the basic household/community level is the most useful and important piece and should be going now. Not letting people and govts get into debt over the wrong priorities, because they are failing to learn from History.

Households should be taught to be pround of learning to take better care of themselves and their neighborhoods and not needing to make last-minute rushes in the teeth of storms because they won’t be able to cope at home.

Communities should aim for

zero accidental CO poisonings and fires and unattended elders dying and such during power outtages. Get back some local production capacity for Rx meds, vaccines, and the means to administer them. Get back local food production and local manufacturing jobs.

Just because the media or the governments are quiet means little, unfortunately.

INFOMASS20 December 2006, 12:56

crfullmoon: I was referring to being insistent on timing of the pandemic, not the desirability of urging and personally engaging in preps NOW. I agree that you fix the hole in the roof when it isn’t raining, not when it is. We are dealing with a virus that might take days or years to strike. If we keep on emphasizing ONLY the “days” part, we will lose most people. What I want is a risk message that will get people prepping but not one that will collapse if nothing happens next month. (At what point do we become like the bearded and gowned people with boards saying “the end is nigh”? I mean, eventually they will be right - but when?) If we get a surge capacity in vaccines so that billions of doses of any antigen could be produced in 90 days, that would be a good thing. Or if we got antivirals that were more effective and safer and easier to produce. But hope is not a policy and prepping is a damn good idea, like you say, for many reasons. Peace?

crfullmoon?20 December 2006, 16:17

Yup. Happy Solstice. I started with your name (and sure wish MA citizens were getting better info) because I wasn’t referring to the other posts. I get too frustrated, (and drift to the soapbox made out of two-by-fours).

Don’t see how anything could “collapse” if pandemic doesn’t happen next month; people need the preps anyway - but, I do see how pandemic <i>could</i> break out next month and some have not even been given the courtesy of information in MA; telling them what a pandemic influenza year is, what H5N1 is up to, and to prepare.

Not sure tptb will <i>ever</i> find a way to get around to saying so, and over a year is <i>inexcusably procrastinated</i>.

Waiting to tell the public until we have vaxes ready is not the course Osterholm, Nabarro, Webster, Leavitt, nor others said would save the most lives and help economy and govt recover best.

(The past and future Governors here are too quiet on the subject for our own good, too.)

Natural disasters always come; Ready or not!

crfullmoon?20 December 2006, 16:19

(ha! too many new forums; I can’t remember which salad fork to use where anymore!)

Anonn too?20 December 2006, 23:08

Wife snuck in and viewed my browser history - she said I should be “taken away” by the men in white coats!

Ha - good thing she just looked at one of my browsers! LOL

Maid in Michigan?21 December 2006, 05:55

Two things today, check out Africa and remember to rotate your food supplies. I really like and have become use to my supplies, When will this disaster come ?like a tornado, hurricane, war, snow storm or any other disaster it is allready here, it just has not gained enough strength to make the six oclock news.

crfullmoon?22 December 2006, 12:06

“Mrs. Anonn too” seems to have missed the Nov 2005 whitehouse memo so, give this to her, with my holiday wishes. (I know the men in the white coats don’t seem to be making the rounds anymore - can you believe these quotes went into the record and away from public radar?) (my bolding:)…” It will require the active participation of the American people.” (Oh the irony -ignore the source and check out the info, Ms.A. - you’re lucky to have Mr.Annon_too.)

… “ In the event of a pandemic, this antiquated process would take many, many months to produce a vaccine, and it would not allow us to produce enough vaccine for every American in time.”…

“ A pandemic is unlike other natural disasters; outbreaks can happen simultaneously in hundreds, or even thousands, of locations at the same time. And unlike storms or floods, which strike in an instant and then recede,

a pandemic can continue spreading destruction in repeated waves that can last for a year or more. (That’d make a good YouTube looped clip!)

“To respond to a pandemic, we must have emergency plans in place in all 50 states and every local community. We must ensure that all levels of government are ready to act to contain an outbreak. We must be able to deliver vaccines and other treatments to frontline responders and at-risk populations.”…

To respond to a pandemic, the American people need to have information to protect themselves and others. In a pandemic, an infection carried by one person can be transmitted to many other people, and so every American must take personal responsibility for stopping the spread of the virus”…

“Because a pandemic could strike at any time, we can’t waste time in preparing.” …”Leaders at every level of government have a responsibility to confront dangers before they appear, and engage the American people on the best course of action. It is vital that our nation discuss and address the threat of pandemic flu now. There is no pandemic flu in our country or in the world at this time — but if we wait for a pandemic to appear, it will be too late to prepare, and one day many lives could be needlessly lost because we failed to act today”…

;-)

I’m-workin’-on-it29 December 2006, 10:39

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I’m-workin’-on-it29 December 2006, 21:56

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I’m-workin’-on-it03 January 2007, 10:46

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I’m-workin’-on-it04 January 2007, 15:04

.

diana?04 January 2007, 16:57

If you hear of a volcano errupting in New Jersey it will be me. I just opened my mail and it seems a meddlesome neighbor left me a note, after opening my mail. Claims it was in her mailbox. Could be ,as our boxes ajoin.One thing opened and I can see a mistake. Opened more than one, my Credit card bills and other mail, Bleh!!!! I will smile when I see her next. Good thing I didn’t know it when I saw her at the bank, I might have said something extremely undiplomatic. The perils of small town life. Once someone said I was” such a beautiful woman” in front of her, and she practically exploded, sputtering I wasn’t beautiful. I’m not, but you keep your mouth shut, if you don’t agree with a compliment, however unwarrented it might be. It’s enough to make me change my address and get a post office box for privacy, if she, (accidently of course) opens more of my mail. She behaves badly in a superior manner. Fashionably bony, so she wouldn’t need any neighborly cans of tuna and rice…. I have always kept my cool in our little clashes. Nothing like a nosy, uppity, interfering neighbor. The perils of living in a small town..I won’t quarrel though I think her impossibly rude and I think she enjoys being outrageous..One of our neighborhood Lady Bountifuls..Moon was full last nite, I was wondering what was in store in the aggravating way today. now I know..But a neighbor is a neighbor and she could be worse.

History Lover?04 January 2007, 17:08

Diana - bless your heart. I am simultaneously laughing and sympathizing with you at this outrageous lady. She’s probably jealous of you for whatever reason. I’ve known people like her and there is absolutely no figuring them. Maybe they become human during a full moon.

diana?04 January 2007, 17:09

My neighbor commented in her note that I should get some new hobbies, might be that she is right. I seem to be the last hold out on Old Yeller. It is getting lonely here.

diana?04 January 2007, 17:13

Yes I know she is jealous and disaproving and really thinks she is helpful in her weird way. I am not like anyone else, a bit of a one of a kind. I do my own thing, go my own way. Don’t hurt anyone, but I have always been a maverick, and she is stuck.I on the other hand am a free spirit.Ariel…. She is stuck in a traditional role.

diana?04 January 2007, 18:36

I checked it out. Her comments on a note to me make it clear she didn’t just open one and realize from the first peice of mail that it wasn’t hers. It is illegal. She was curious and nosy. Just another irritant. A pebble in my shoe. Another hassle I don’t need. Agathe Christie would have a field day with a few of my neighbors.

michigan mom?04 January 2007, 18:41

diana, if you are on this site and sharing with others I know you are beautiful, no mater what youe neighbor says.

Holly Hobby?04 January 2007, 19:07

Just a couple questions and a not so nice idea. Q#1 Ok, does she know your prepping ? Q#2 Have you missed any mail before? And maybe I am being mean but I think I would create something to get her interest, and just give her enough info. to just drive her nuts wondering what is going on. Or send her some info. on the topic of mail fraud-specifically opening others mail! She is just insecure. Oh and don’t forget to follow- up on those credit cards in case somehow your info. was shared with others.

diana?04 January 2007, 19:15

No, she is honest. She is just a bit mean spirited. I think I drive her a little nuts sometimes, though I avoid her. I am a bit of a bohemian, and not to her liking. We aren’t kindred spirits. Even our dogs, at least her first who thought he was king of the hill, and mine who was as alpha as they make them didn’t care for each other.I am not mad, just annoyed by her note. The contents of my mail are none of her business. I’m annoyed today, tomorrow I’ll be involved with something else.I just needed to vent a little. Thanks for the suggestions.

I’m-workin’-on-it05 January 2007, 05:21

Diana, don’t feel like you’re here alone! Several of us are still plugging along here & although it’s not like it used to be, we’re all still of one mind & can enjoy a good laugh or experience a good cry with each other.

I’m amazed that this woman was so casual about her “mistake”. Good golly, what was she thinking??

I know you’ll have blown it off by morning, but do be diligent to remember what she’s done & if you haven ANY type of identification theft problems, be sure to report the incident to whomever is investigating your case. Meanspirited is one thing, but breaking the law is breaking the law!

History Lover?05 January 2007, 10:17

Diana - IWOT is right. If she opens your mail “by accident” again, this is no coincidence. She may be doing this to others as well.

diana?05 January 2007, 10:30

This neighbor is right out of Pride and Prejudice. A contemporary Jane Austen would love her. Lady Catherine de burgh as a fading beauty with a few face lifts.I threw away her note, and when I got to the place where I had thrown it away, it had been tossed into a large paper sack, and I wasn’t about to root through the trash like a manic Jack Russell digging for a kill. What I am considering doing is having my mail held at the post office for a week or so while I mull over the situation. I can change my mail box site by changing the town address and putting up a new box, or getting a post office box which are at a premium. This is more trouble than I want to go to. I will make sure not to talk with her until I have simmered down completly, as I can be guite witty, and wit is often cruel, so I generally bite my tongue and restrain myself. I don’t want to feud with anyone living so near to me. We don’t like each other, and that is enough. I might mark my mailbox with name and number which I had a while back, before a car knocked over the mail and displaced the identification. The woman is very high handed and I have told her so ,in an oblique fashion, though not passive aggressively, a few times when she has been impossible and wildly outrageous.She is a former belle, pretty enough, who is living among people who are infinatly higher on the social and economic ladder than she is.People like this want to be important. I think she thinks of herself as a Christian woman, someone who does her duty. Yet is a tiny fish in a big pond, though this is a very small town. I am not the only one to say she has a lot of gall.Right now I’m eyeing the deer turds on the lawn, they are no where near as tiresome, you just have to watch where you step. Need I say more.

Kathy in FL05 January 2007, 10:45

Hey Diana, you may want to call your local post office and tender a complaint. Whether they like it or not, the postal carriers are responsible for where they put the mail.

We have terrible mail service in our area. The place is a busy suburbia run like an old rural route system. Never the same mail person two days in a row … and they are all independent contractors who come and go as they get fed up with the office, or if they are good they transfer to someplace better managed. <shrug> Its caused us more than a few cases of heart burn I can tell you … both with our personal mail and our business mail.

Make a mention that due to the carriers mistake (or incompetence depending on your brutal honesty), your private information which is protected by law was made accessible … and accessed … by the neighbor in question. If they get defensive, tell them they really do not want to become part of an existing problem so they had better be more careful.

Postal carriers have a “duty to perform” clause and this also covers issues of right to privacy and other applicable legal issues. Alot of them don’t realize this, but if you talk to some of the muckety-mucks in the post office and with the feds you find this out. Trust me … I’ve complained to some very high offices about our service. LOL!

sidescroll alert cottontop?05 January 2007, 10:58

diana- might I make a suggest? since she is “a former belle”, why not invite her over for tea, and in an unknowning way, offer her a truce? Lighthearted conversation, some tea and little sandwiches, ect. She’ll see (if she accepts), that this is really nonsense, and your not such a bad person, but one with good intentions, and trying to survive just like her. One little invite could solve your problems with her, hopefully.

sidescroll alert cottontop?05 January 2007, 10:59

Because it seems to me that you don’t know her, and she doesn’t know you, and that’s where the problem is. If she got to know you, she wouldn’t do these things.

cottontop?05 January 2007, 11:01

disreguard sidescroll alert. I forgot to change my name back.

diana?05 January 2007, 11:12

I’ll talk to the post mistress. While I have the law noted which prohibits this sort of situation, I should find out exactly what is what. Making an end run around someone who is behaving badly and finessing them is my preference. At times, like the silly , “She isn’t beautiful, just well put together “incident I am astonished and also very amused by her tactlessness. This time it is something a little more serious.I don’t want to be paranoid but we all need to pull out weeds before they seed. The snow drops are up and blooming, noticed a bunch of them this morning. Time to sign up for the Philly Flower Show.

diana?05 January 2007, 11:22

Thank you cottontop, I know her all too well. Thirty years. Have had lunch with her. I don’t think her a bad person, just self important and tactless to the nth degree. She smarting right now from a divorce and scandle in the family.I can sympathise. Life is difficult, people have problems and marriages disintergrate. Any pretense of friendship is out of the question. She has made gestures in the past, but she wants satellites and minions, not friends. Would you trust Paris Hilton?

cottontop?05 January 2007, 11:30

diana- ah well, guess it sounds hopeless then. Some people are just going to be difficult no matter how much you bend for them, or try to please them. I no longer waste my time on these people, but rather invest in the ones who are appreciative. It’s sad to here of your plight with this woman. She’s missing out on a chance to have a good friendship. Shame, and what a waste of one’s life. I would trust Paris Hilton about as much as I would trust Charles Mansion!

diana?05 January 2007, 11:39

The family scandle is sad, and big, it tore apart a church congregation. I think she has fastened on me as a diversion. I am friendly with my immediate new next door neighbor, who is also friendly with this woman, so I have at least one buffer between me and her.I think she believes herself a tactful and wonderful woman. I can have a different opinion and leave her to heaven. She possibly means well, but mean spirited is mean spirited.

cottontop?05 January 2007, 12:05

That must be some scandle, to tear apart a congregation. I’ve learned in life that mean spirited people always think they mean well. Guess that’s how they live with their misery. But they didn’t get mean spirited for no reason. Something happened to them, along life’s way, and left them like this, although they choose to let it defeat them in this way.

diana?05 January 2007, 12:20

What was it that Joe E. Lewis as a wacky millionaire in Some Like It Hot say’s as he and Jack Lemon zip off on a motorboat…. “Nobody’s perfect.”…… Some people just think they are.

Greenmom?06 January 2007, 09:54

I love your reference to Jane Austin-I’m a huge fan. As I read her books I keep thinking of contemporary examples, people I know. Your neighbor also sounds like a charector out of a Southern Gothic Novel. Id be really upset though if someone else was looking through my mail.

Our postman is fantastic. Although its a rural route, and technically he wouldn’t need to get out of his truck, he will take mail up to the doors of Elderly people if their steps are icy.

JWB?06 January 2007, 10:48

Diana,

Just for fun, have a friend send you in an unsealed envelope, confirmation that yes, you will indeed inherit Uncle Joe’s 12 million dollar estate.

JWB?06 January 2007, 11:03

…and if she inquires about it, just tell her you have already decided to give it all to your favorite charity…GFTETOP.

(Group For The Ethical Treatment Of Protozoa)

diana?06 January 2007, 11:25

Lol. I am being too hard on the lady. Last nite I dreamed that she was fixing George Clooney a cup of Earl Grey tea, and I saw them leave with his paw on her shoulder. Well… I asked her “how did it go?” and she answered. “The fool wants to become president of the U.S.” Now I have a friend who is sailing around the world and is at present in Sydney for a three week music and art festival. His two friends are going on the New Zealand while he remains on land. He has been writing me what I guess, you could term Love letters.(He is having a great time with the ladies where he is.) I would hate her opening one of those. As it is what she opened was a shut off notice for electricity,(already paid, I pay late always.) and a very long list of purchases on credit card bill that is maxxed out. I think I will pay that off completely. She made certain inferences and had the gall to speculate and give me unsolicited advice. So ,I exploded. Yesterday another neighbor asked me how things were going and I said her name. Sara said, “well what has she done now.” I told her. When I used the B…..word the people who were listening smiled. But I am overreacting. Today is a dazzling day and I’m going off to see “Perfume” the story of a murderer. The lady in question is actuallly a devout christian lady. Very competent, very organized. My scatter brained ways( I have excellent credit in spite of it)must seem the height of insanity. I am very much a free spirit, and she is a conventional southern belle. Water and oil don’t mix well.When I thought things over this morning I decided to let it all sink into oblivion, unless she does it again. She is reliably honest. Lets, say we could never be friends, though I must admit she has tried in her rather condensending way to be friendly.I have shied away as I know that I would regret it. I’m going to think of her good qualities, and hold my tongue if she brings this up. Lets say she would be a poor diplomat, though she has traveled, by her dead husbands position, in rarified circles. So have I. So what? is how I look at it. The president of a steel company helped us with sleeves rolled up to move our furniture when we moved into this neighborhoos. I’ve dickered with Jackie Kennedy over buying her old BMW. Because of my husband, and only that, I’ve known people at the very top, probably more than she has. So what, outside of name dropping, is that worth?: That and 1.50 will get you a ride on the New York subway.The lady has some sterling qualities, I just happen to appreciate them. Her southern charms elude me.I’m a yankee.

diana?06 January 2007, 11:41

All southerners are charming, don’t you know. Its the accent.

cottontop?06 January 2007, 12:19

Diana- Being a southern,(from Texas) I take great pride in my “southern charm.” Having lived in N.Y. for 19 years, I know the “yankee’s charm. I’ll take the southern way, any day. LOL

diana?06 January 2007, 12:25

I was in London once, at the British Museam. The Brit guard was melting over a plump southern girl, getting her to talk. He was absolutly enthralled by her accent, and her comfortably chubby build.He would have scooped her up and taken her home to mum if he could have charmed her. She wasn’t having any of it and cast a cold eye at him.I like the accent, just don’t like a knife in my back if that goes along with it.

cottontop?06 January 2007, 13:18

diana- London. How I would love to see London. Your a lucky woman. Bet you had a great time. Please don’t judge every southern like that. We’re not all like that. Although it would seem to be the case. I have a hard time not judging every yankee for being yankee. I have met some wonderful people here, and the bottom line is, southern or northern, doesn’t matter. People are kind, rude, warm, cold, no matter where you go.

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