Then Hannity asked about chances for a pandemic. Gerberding said it is unpredictible
“chances” are always predictable.
Keeping the CDC predictions secret is irresponsable. This is not a
secret agency. How can they call to prepare for an event when
they can’t predict the chance that it will occur ?
In 1976 after the first swine-flu deaths CDC formed two panels
to independently predict the chances of a swine-flu-pandemic.
One panel came up with 10–25%, the other one with 40%.
President Ford decided to vaccinate the entire US-population.
Let’s call CDC (and others) to form two panels now to predict
the chances for a H5N1-pandemic !
Before the rush with fifty personal responses, please let each consider the boundaries that are necessary to make an answer such as “Thirty-seven percent” somewhat meaningful.
Just from my amateurish standpoint, I see a need to consider: 37% in what time frame? 37% with what lethality (CFR)? 37% with what infectivity, (what R sub-o)? 37% with what degree of vaccination effectiveness? Vaccine supply time line expectations? 37% with what background of antiviral supply and effectiveness?
Just some preliminary thoughts, off the top. Others will be able to improve on my rough guidelines.
Just for the exercise, let me put my own head on the chopping block!
Fifty percent probability within the next 12 months. CFR 40%. R sub-o of 2.3. Ineffective vaccination and negligible supply for first six months after onset; 10% effect second six months, due to mutations, supply and distribution bars. Antivirals little or no effect first six months, partly due to minimal availability. Second six months of pandemic no meaningful effect, 10%, partly due to resistance developing and mutations.
< Nikolai realises his folly not stocking BB’s flu killer >
I fled the internet when I realised the folly of so exposing myself to ridicule in above posts. The consideration shown me in not flaming that impudence is truly touching but I fear may in part be scorn for my obviously developing senility!
Regardless, thanks!
< Be good, Nikolai. Just read quietly or go to bed >
Ah Nikolai! No-one would flame you for voicing your thoughts. They are all valid points.
I don’t know… all I can argue is Mother Nature does her thing and we do ours.
In that line:
Sometimes what may happen - happens with no input from us,
sometimes our actions to avoid something cause that which we are avoiding,
and sometimes we manage to manage a situation enough to avoid it completely.
So…
I offer up 1–99% possibility this flu will be nothing or complete havoc.
Given the uncertainty of nature - it will just come down to who was prepared for the event and who wasn’t. For all we know, the day before the pandemic begins a comet swings in from the Southern sky and obliterates everything. Atleast the fellows on the ISS will have a few weeks to contemplate humanity.
:)
I have followed these boards with intense interest since Turkey, posting only twice. As an intuitive kind of thinker (INFP, for those who know Myers-Briggs)I have depended on the rocky combination of hard science and human intuition that has married here for the purposes of giving us some sense control and knowledge over how this might unfold. It has been a fascinating journey and I thank you all for the wisdom, insight and knowledge that has kept us collectively steady and, at the same time, moving forward in understanding without undue panic.
I have counted on all of you (particularly the more conservative, Melanie :))to help determine my own sense of the nearness of this. I believe Dr. Niman and believe he has been basically right about this all along and have been subject to bouts of panic as a result. I appreciate, in particular, the balance of the threads which help one regain steadiness amidst both dire information and the lack of true knowledge.
That said, my intuition tells me we are close to a revolutionary change in the human condition. As a closet academic and theologian I have learned, of course, how the human response to adversity determines the perspective of God, community and self. As one who lives in the United States, I recognize that our collective sense of entitlement and righteousness has reached appalling levels. One can’t help but imagine a kind of relative “good” that can come out of a “falling apart”.
I can’t do predictions but I can say within the study of human history we witness the fight against essential finiteness and frailty. I see this board as an extention of my existential dread and the struggle to gain some sense of control and determination over and against what will inevitably be or not be.
I appreciate the call to prepare and will continue to do so. If individual intuition counts for anything, I am haunted by the sense that life as we have known it (rich in creature comforts) may soon be suspended and although I cannot consciously imagine it, we will be in a fight for our lives.
Out of this we may find a richer definition of community, although it won’t be nearly as neat and pretty as the one we have now. Freud found us to be driven by our neurotic fear of death. All the manicured structure around us now reflects that truth. We will be left to face our collective neurosis and struggle to find meaning therein. All the food preps in the world won’t prepare us for the internal struggle, should this break out. How not to lose hope, how to find peace in the midst of, how to lose those we love and still believe in the essential goodness of existence….these are what I worry about. Our stockpiles will become an important provision but the rest of what will be needed we can’t possibly prepare for.
I am just grateful to all of you in giving me the chance to begin getting my head around this. We cannot know what this means yet but we can know that there has been a warning shot and we need to begin to “suit up”. We have determinately foiled the element of surprise which decidedly effects the psychological impact of what this may be. That is what makes me most worried about how the WHO is playing this publically. People need that warning shot. I work with folks in traumatic grief and what most hurts and complicates their grief is A. lack of honest information at the time of the loss and B. appeasement on the part of those who accompany them. False hope. Let’s not fear the impact of this on each other and trust our natural resiliance.
Take care, I will be following along beside you….
Hello flufriend
As one who has experienced (within the past year) the kind of ‘traumatic grief’ you probably have helped others with, I thank you for your post. In my case it was the witnessing of a sudden and unexpected and freakish auto accident that lead to the death of my mother and I can definitely say from unwished-for personal experience that the delays in truthfulness and the feelings that one needs to behave in certain ways to accommodate the feelings of others makes grieving tough.
Since I presume you have experience in grief counseling, your thoughts on how we will all cope with something like a pandemic are most eagerly welcomed.
Oh and the only tangible things I can think of from our stockpiles that might begin to help us are extra tissues for the tears and items that divert us and allow us to feel good, simple things like a good book, bubble bath, and the comfort foods and drink of one’s choice. These ‘luxuries’ will be necessities for the soul.
Anon- I extend deep sympathy to you on the death of your mother. You will know as well as anyone who has suffered deep loss what we need to muddle through life and all of its attending pain.
Flufriend
Flufriend, I am like you in that I am a pattern seeker, constantly taking in information, sorting through it, evaluating, and learning every step of the way. I’ve been with the wiki for six months now, and have watched an amazing community form here, which is as important for the emotional and psychological support that it lends as the breaking news, scientific insights, and practical helpfulness that also streams by. From the patterns, I also try to project the ballistic trends of the situation, and I would agree with you that we are headed into an unimaginable time of change, and very possibly an abbreviated human history. I had always hoped for the age of Aquarius, when my hair was long, but now wonder about our brave new world, just ahead. I have felt this coming in my bones for a long time; now the storm is on the horizon. Chances of a pandemic? Any day now, or any month now; those who are connected to their surrounding must feel the electricity in the air, as just before a summer storm. I’m ready. Find your peace in the spark of light in the chickadee’s eye.
Here’s the way I see it.
H5N1 has been around for more than ten years and isn’t going away. This virus continues to spread to more and more species. It also continues to spread in an ever larger geographic area. H5N1 is infecting a growing number of humans at a faster pace. The virus is now being passed from human to human. There are multiple strains of H5N1 infecting more and more species. There’s no way of stopping what’s happening and no sign that the virus’ progress will cease.
So, it’s like watching a very large boulder coming down a mountainside gaining size and speed. Will it stop or change direction? Why should it? No, it’ll continue coming and contiue doing what it has been doing in the past, in my view. And sooner probably rather than latter H5N1 will become a human pandemic. It just seems logical. Don’t like it, but there it is.
Thank you, Brock. Well put. I played with numbers, above, but my heart is with your first paragraph, in particular.
These are useless posts. No one knows.
As far as survivability, I figure nothing is as good as we hope or as bad as we fear.
As far as when/if it’ll happen soon? Well, if you see the guys from the bomb squad running, you should try to keep up. Public health officials are prepping , so I am too.
anonymous — at 12:22 cuts:
“These are useless posts. No one knows.”
Anonymous, life is a useless post. Everyone knows. But you?
<The thread asked for personal opinions, not ultimate truths>
Yes, but don’t miss the positives. It’s typical but unlogical that people
either gather only negatives or only positives.
It has stopped in Vietnam. It needn’t change direction nor stop,
just for a pandemic it has to gain a lot of speed. Only H1,H2,H3 are known
to be able to cause pandemics and these are rare.
Why didn’t a H5N1 pandemic happen earlier ? With that high CFR we would have noticed. Wouldn’t it be a strange coincident if our generation should
be the first to experience this since thousands of years ?
H5N1 didn’t make much progress to infect humans efficiently,
although it had had 9 years of time and many different strains,
none of which succeeded to go h2h efficiently.
When we have some more years, we might learn how to avoid infection
and how to contain it.Research might find better vaccines and antivirals.
On the other hand it did succeed to spread geographically and
gained diversity. It does survive in blood and survives long
in the environment.
But anonymous! Look at the BRIGHT side of my 03:40 post! I said there is a fifty percent chance of NO PANDEMIC in the next twelve months! I estimated sixty percent of those infected would SURVIVE! And so on!
Don’t be so NEGATIVE! As you said in your first sentence: Don’t miss the positives! Well, then…DON’T!
In many sciences, ‘predictions’ are made, or ‘chances’ are computed, by creating, at first, simple models with only a 1 or two variables, and then by ever increasing the complexity of the model until the scientists feel some measure of confidence that they have accounted for the major forcings, with appropriate fudge factors for chaos and random action.
Not being a biologist or epidemioligst myself, i can only hazard a guess that in this situation, there are so many variables to consider, some of which we may not even know are important, that it is impossible for the WHO to come up with a model that can give meaningful ‘chances’ of an epidemic arising, to any level of confidence (pick a sigma, any sigma).
Add to that the sad fact that the general public doesn’t really understand statistics and probability, and I can see why it’s difficult for the WHO, or any official organization, to make a statement like you want. If a scientist or an organization predicts a 50% chance of X happeing this year, and it doesn’t- then people think they were ‘wrong’, actually, they were ‘right’ because they also predicted a 50% chance that it wouldn’t happen. A large portion of the American public doesn’t understand that. Just look at the statistics for San Francisco- apparently only 6% of the city’s population an earthquake preparedness kit or made preparations, and that is a situation where they have published ‘chances’ of earthquakes coming out of their wahzoo. If an elevated risk of a large EQ occurs, when it’s announced, and it doesn’t happen, people see the forecast as having been ‘wrong’ and prediction fatigue sets in.
As I see it, the WHO is between a rock a hard place trying to make meaningful statements that will lead to the desired result, of getting people to be watchful and aware, but not seeing the announcements as just an endless series of ‘crying wolf’
in 1976 the CDC-panels estimated 10–25% and 40%. Each member of the decisive meeting also made a secret estimate. Ranges were from 2%−20%. The predicted pandemic was expected to be of 1957 or 1968-type. That was enough to go for vaccination, and later this was considered a mistake. The members of the committee never discussed their estimates with the other members nor in public. Later they said that this was a serious mistake. Forcing experts to make public statements were one of the best methods to find weaknesses in their arguments… (Neustadt and May, “thinking in time..”,1986,p.152)
Anonymous 1 or 2 or whatever. (Frightened, are you?)
Just an amateur in anything at all sophisticated, but I’d hate to cross a street in busy traffic while the ‘experts’ calculated the complex set of differential equations involved in the cross traffic and my possible timing and path.
I just do it. Same for my inspired post of 03:40. I got over.
Nikolai-Sydney, I appreciate your estimate, but you are not an expert.
Support the idea to force the experts to make estimates and to
discuss the estimates and find weaknesses in other expert’s arguments !
It often helps to split the one big estimate into smaller subproblems.
In the poll among physicians they asked for the chances of a pandemic
within 1,2,3,4 years - so the physicians were forced to check whether
there was enough probability left for the other years :
http://www.hcdhealth.com/ViewPress.cfm?ID=23
but these were only normal physicians, not experts who had
read the papers on the subject and followed the discussion.
anonymous,
what data do you need to make a proper prediction? Guesses from a number of people here won’t do as the data will not be of good enough quality. I am asking because everybody, that includes me btw, would like to have a nice, good and reliable prediction (of course within the limitations of what a prediction / probability number can really tell).
What we are reading here are guesses. The data don’t exist to create a prediction.
Melanie at 13:09,
I know :-)
Hi Anonymous. I’m glad you are back. I was starting to get a little worried about you.
Given the re-emergence at Q. Lake, the ongoing secrecy in China and Guandong in particular and the recent events in Indonesa…I have changed my asessment of the probability of a pandemic to 100% within 5 years, 99.9999% in two years and 99% within one year.
Ask yourself some questions:
Is bird flu picking up speed? Are there more outbreaks? Are more people getting sick? Is it spreading faster and faster?
It’s not fading away and it’s not slowing down. I would love to see it fizzle out but it’s just not doing that right now. It’s on a run and until someone stops it, it’s heading my way.
Tom DVM at 13:30
So, what was your probability assessment before those events you cite?
Tom DVM re: “I have changed my asessment of the probability of a pandemic to 100% within 5 years, 99.9999% in two years and 99% within one year.”
So, don’t hold back; tell us exactly what you think the chances are, no hedging… ;)
My feelings; plan for the worst occur sooner than later, hope for the best.
Grace.
There is something I have wanted to say for a while…so I will insert it here.
I have really enjoyed corresponding with all on flu wiki but to me, there are three that are absolutely essential…Grace RN, Medical Maven and Scaredy Cat. If I am going to hang in here, you three can’t go anywhere.
The reason is your philosophical approach to things…the three of you have a way of bringing all of us, theoretical scientists, back to reality with a few well placed words…when I am getting really, really frustrated your words comfort and refresh…and I don’t think flu wiki would be a very interesting place without you…the three musketeers!!!
anonymous. I like you but I don’t understand your question.
Sorry, anonymous I still like you and I just figured out what you were asking…my problem not yours.
My previous estimates I think were 99% within 10 years…75% within 5 years…and 50 % within two years.
The previous estimate was made in January 2005.
Tom DVM- I am deeply honored to have your trust and to be in the company of such esteemed others. I don’t have a degree-yet- (98.6 on a good day)-old work horse diploma hospital school of nursing grad since 1972. I deeply respect and need the comments/opinions of such well-educated people such as yourself and the others.
Not going anywhere in the foreseeable future. I have become a fluwikie2 junkie of sorts- need it to start and finish each day.
I am a older women of american Indian tribe. I was raised very simple. was taught and leaned to listen to mother earth and God thru Birds, the earth and animals including people. I live very very simple. I feel the earth on my bare feet and listen closely to all the birds and animals during each passing season.. I know the birds and animals in my area. I know who returns to lay her eggs, I know who does not return. I know the animals, I know who makes it or not each follow spring. I watch and I liston to every change. I have lots of time because I don’t work full time. I just work when I need to. I am not lazy by all means. I just don’t need much to live, just basic. I am well educated and do not gain anything from the goverment by being who I am. I am free to live how I choose. The only modern thing I own is this computer that my children set up for me. I was taught that women has a basic deep instinct and even more when she becomes a mother to children. So we women are basicly like mother earth that yeilds us her fruit to eat and live. A mother knows when her children need her, she knows when something is up because of this instinct, she knows when to prepare for her family. There is wisom in motherhood. Mother earth is like us women, she tries to tell us when things are not just right. In a mordern day world filled with people that are concerned with luxuries, we don’t hear nor do we watch as each year passes to understand her language. we soon lose ourselves from the connection we have to the earth and God by our wants. Women have a connection to mother earth and we know when something just isn’t right, we will know by our instinct when to move and when to prepare. I have noticed a anxiety in the last two springs and never before have I stored food other than winter. Something is in the air and I began feeling it two springs ago, something is changing, thru this I have began to store food for my family, at any given time I am prepared to pull my children and grandchildren beneath my wings for protection. To what is ever coming about I give it a 60/40 chance in happening. Women listen to your deep voice of instinct.
anonymous at 12:22 cuts: These are useless posts. No one knows. *
Where have I heard this theme before - Shaw, Wilde, Hemmingway, Yeats…Ovid? ….darn, I’ll think of it. (Thinking through movies….For Whom the Bell Tolls? Casablanca?…it’s just early afternoon, night fever hasn’t kicked in yet.)
I too spend a lot more time here than is apparent. Lots of lurking. I am guessing at 70–80% within 1 year. I am personally prepared about as well as I am going to get. I continue to work on my Hospital. More than one department manager feels that it is important to get our plan out( we have actually started implimentation of parts of it ) before this fall.
The big hang up is medical staff( they see a problem but are too busy to help us ) and administration( we are in the mist of an expansion and they see nothing but construction). But administration has released some funds so we have been moving ahead. I am now on both Bioethics and Diasasters Committees. Disasters( Bioterror ) has some funds! I have recently polled some staff and find some prepping, so it does not look quite as bleak as it did a couple of months ago.
I have no illusions, anything we do will most likely not be enough. That is not good rational not to try. Kelly
This is what I was thinking of!
“Integrity without knowledge is weak and useless, and knowledge without integrity is dangerous and dreadful. “
Samuel Johnson (1709 - 1784)
Tom DVM at15:25
I guess your January 2006 estimates were low in retrospect - I mean China’s secrecy is nothing new - Indonesia isn’t that much different then Turkey is it? Q lake is troubling - but certainly not surprising.
Mind you - I don’t disagree much with your current assessment - I just don’t think much has changed since January.
Melanie,European: you are in contradiction to the members of the 2 CDC-panels and the members of the committee in 1976 who did give estimates. You are in contradiction to the analysis of Neustadt and Fineberg 1983 and Neustadt and May 1986 who concluded as I wrote above and this was also the later agreement of the committee members. You are in contradiction with Webster,Monotreme, the Tuft’s participants, the 656 physicians from the opinion poll and other polls. If these estimates had no base then why were they made ? You see frequent statements by experts and politicians estimating the pandemic risk using unexact words, so there is some data. “The data don’t exist to create a prediction” well, what’s a “prediction” ? Clearly we can make a subjective estimate of the “chances” or probability. This is done frequently with sport events and other events which I consider even less “predictable”. It can be done and it is done. How reliable it is and whether people agree on the estimate is another question. Stop this “chances are unpredictable” - nonsense. It’s just unlogical.
anonymous. the estimate I listed was in January 2005.
GooseBumps If you could, your quote would go well on the H-H-H thread as their is a bit of a debate going on with respect to the ethics and integrity of the WHO.
Did Turkey have witch doctors too?
Thanks Tom DVM, sorry!- Misjudgement on my part. I will post it in H_H-H-.
INDIAN: re: “Something is in the air and I began feeling it two springs ago, something is changing”
Thank you-our senses are the most important guide we will ever have in our lives. I respect yours to the utmost, and your eloquent statements.
Tom DVM
I have changed my asessment of the probability of a pandemic to 100% within 5 years, 99.9999% in two years and 99% within one year’‘
You can’t be serious here. You’d bet $100000 against $1 that it would
happen within 2 years ??
‘’My previous estimates I think were 99% within 10 years75% within
5 yearsand 50 % within two years. ‘’
think again. That would mean, that it’s
50% in 2006–2007 , 50% in 2008–2010 and 96% in 2011–2016
Tom DVM - at 16:23
Whoops my bad - 2005 / 2006 they all blend in….
Just for kicks - what would you have said the probabilities were if asked in January 2006?
The often repeated line attributed to the scientific community “not if, but when” comes to mind in this discussion. We seem to be edging closer to critical mass, the “when” moment speeding up. Between this fall and next spring is my best guess for the efficient transmission level. Maybe we’ll be lucky. Maybe we’ll be lucky and the “when” will be postponed to another time.
Anonymous at 16:20,
I am however in complete agreement with nearly all of the flu scientists in North America. These are guesses. The data don’t exist, period, for anything other than guesses.
INDIAN at 15:39 -
I support what you say. I ahve been the family prepper and fluwikie participant for a long time. My wife has been supportive of my efforts to a point, but didn’t want me obsessing over this Bird Flu stuff. She still doesn’t. But lately, for whatever reason, she has started coming home with major amounts of food during her shoipping expeditions to add to our stockpile, and has been cruising the web and looking at water filters, solar heaters, stoves and power accessories.
She is usually insightful to the point of sometimes being psychic. She is very aware of the nature and birds around us and sometimes has discussions and even arguments with them in their own language.
I am not ignoring the message of what I see there.
pre-HIV: population experts regarded growth estimates for Africa as highly uncertain — but they made estimates! important and meaningful estimates, in context, based primarily on historical population patterns… but they made very clear that these estimates were (again) _highly uncertain_.
well, after the emergence of HIV (w/ particularly catastrophic impact in Africa) it became popular to profess (often very extreme, to both ends of spectrum) population projections with certainty!
But, now there was a new and powerful and largely unknown and unpredictable actor: HIV.
So, before FWians get too much further with tenured armchair professorial predictions of the probability of a pandemic:
maybe take a look at past flu epidemics and pandemics;
hmmm there were 3 pandemics (or 4 if you count 1977) in my grandmothers life time… and there’s been 1 (or 2 if you count 1977) in mine… so maybe there will be two more before I die (if I’m lucky enough to live as long as she).
That’s a prediction (my prediction), based on some evidence — there will be 2–3 more influenza pandemics in the next 60 years.
So, FWians can aso demand that flu experts start talking publicly bout such informed expert opnions/estimates (they can use all kinds of data other than my grandma’s exerpeicen…).
Demand that US (and world) governments act with same energy as 1976 (at least).
1976 panels made public estimates… 1976 they also had a vaccine… 1976 no pandemic happened… 1976 probability of a pandemic was almost certainly < 2006 probability…
even a 1% chnace of a 1918-like pandemic should muster billions and billions more toward vax and antivirals then we currently see.
Its just so hard to say. I thought 50/50 within the next year until the recent outbreaks, now I lean closer to 60/40 in the next year. I base my guess largely on input from friends who know much more than I do; one being an epidemiologist, 2 being docs and several nurses. I completely agree with GraceRN at 15:09, plan for the worst sooner than later and hope for the best. I have definately felt an urge, instinct, spidey-sense, something telling me to get my preps completed.
NYCfluy: I agree completely that fluwikians should demand answers but how to go about the demanding part? letters to our congressman might or might not have much effect. Im at a loss as to what else to do. Ideas?
Maybe we could look at the chances from a slightly different angle:
Do we have any recorded data on any flu virus, that has infected as many people as the H5N1 currently has, of dying off on its own? Is this a possiblity based on past history with a similar virus?
If the answer is no - no virus has ever reached this level that has died off - then I would give the chances of this virus going away on its own a 0%.
To me (no mathmetician here) that would mean that we have a 100% chance of this thing continuing in that there is no chance that it will just go away.
So, that still leaves us with when (anyone’s guess) and how lethal it will be. There is a large chance, from what I understand from experts, that if it went pandemic it could weaken seriously in its ability to kill. I guess the question to this is also: Do we have any data on a virus that has erupted in a pandemic and what was the level of death as it progressed. Did it decrease from the time it was appearing in just smaller clusters, etc?
Viruses are like hurricanes and other natural disasters. There is some reasoning and patterns that should be suggested. So far the only thing I have seen comparable to this virus is the Spanish Flu. If that is the case, and we have never had a flu that has just died down that has reached the current level, then my bet would be to use a computer model to determine where the Spanish Flu was at this point; how long it took to go pandemic and how lethal was it along the way.
I know that information was not readily available in 1918, but God we aren’t talking that many years ago. I would just hope that alot of research is being done on how the Spanish Flu behaved in order to establish some guidelines of what to expect. We all know from Katrina that it could be a lot worse, but can’t they give some indication of how long it takes to go pandemic from the cluster stage (Stage 3 - 6) and what is the mortality rate early into the pandemic and what is it as it moves along.
If this information is already out there, please forgive me. However, I have been following this flu for six months and have never seen a straight-forward chart that compares 1918 to now. Whatever information they could “unearth” would be really helpful. I am sure that the Spanish Flu was researcher in the early days after it hit - it was a major event in the lives of that time. We have to have more information than we currently see. All we see now is, it is a cousin to the Spanish Flu and the Spanish Flu lasted so many months and killed so many people. I want to know how did it unfold…what are the facts and how is this comparing to this flu.
I don’t get to watch to much TV only when I am at someone house that has one. For some reason I began to go to stores in search of canned items that I could not can enough of. I began a storage of items for a family of 15. My husband could not understand this nor neither could I. It seems all the sudden my mind and spirit has no other thoughts of anything but prepare. Prepare for what, I do not know. I was at a friend house and she was watching the news when I noticed words going across the bottom of the news and there it was BIRD FLU. I had never heard of it and ask the eldery lady what it was, she had no idea! I have been storing for about three months before I seen this. I came home and for days wonder this around in my mind. I finally looked it up on the computer and found this sight. This is my first post ever. I try to throw this from my mind by thinking it is unreasonable but I can’t shake the idea that something is about to happen. This is by far one of the prettist spings I have ever seen. As far as the colors of the leaves, flowers and the birds are so deeply colored in my area like never before. Their songs are so clear and beautiful, but there is a uneasy feeling in the air. It is so uneasy that prompt me to began storage of foods for my family. My thoughts of all the stories from the bible of the foolish without the lamp oil, that went to find more and lost out on the wedding. I think about Joesph and his storage of wheat. I can not began to tell you this over concern I have. I keep telling myself that I am getting to old to trust myself with instinct. I am preparing for winter for something to happen. It may be bird flu, it may be something else that I must endure in my life only. But in all my life I have had this uneasy feeling several times and each time I was prepared..
Janet, Thank you for putting that question into words! Has there ever been a virus that reached this level that just faded away. Who knows the answer to this?
I feel the opposite. I think it is stranger than strange. So many people exposed to sick birds, culling them by the millions with no protection, and yet merely a few hundred getting it. It’s seems weird to me. I’m prepping very slowly, have very much a wait and see attitude. I just can’t feel it breathing down my neck quite yet. I’ll be one surprised cookie one of these days, though I take it very seriously. Might be just that I always think that things will work out,and my temperment is fooling with my rational mind.
INDIAN at 15:39
Thank you so much! For about two years I have noticed there has been a calling. Not urgently at first, yet it’s palitable lately. There is starting to be a sense of urgency in the human consciousness. Being the gnostic that I am, I put it to the turn of a new age. This a good time to live. This perhaps the reason we signed up to come down to this earth plane at this time. Our purpose to help in the coming change. I am a dyed in the wool lurker, but your comments touched the spirit in me and I had to echo your call.
(WooWoo Mystic goes back to her lurking)
Melanie, I particularily like this “period” - argument ;-)
You’d better look for scientists in logics,philosophy or mathematics.
The question whether chances are unpredictable is not
flu-specific, you won’t learn it in medical classes.
Flu-scientists are biased here.They don’t _want_ to give numbers
and that’s the only reason why they say it “can’t” be done or
“no one knows” Their numbers would be discussed and disputed,
they don’t like that. Although, once everyone else gives numbers
too this would no longer be a problem.
Rosie,Janet,Tom, you might compare with the poll among
physicians which is the best what we actually have
http://www.hcdhealth.com/ViewPress.cfm?ID=23
less than 20% think that a pandemic within 1 year is likely.
The mood in these forums is generally scary. All the news and speculations.
So people in forums tend to overestimate , compared with experts.
Indian, if you were not afraid of bird-flu, you would never have found us.
So, for us it’s not a surprise that people who are irregular visitors here
are more concerned than average - for whatever reason.
I strongly think it is a genetic anomoly at present. And only some people will get it, and most with the same exposure won’t. When it find its final mutation to fit us all, then I will sit up and feel fearful. I compared it to a jackpot at a slot machine, all the reels falling into the proper sequence. The odds are still in our favor. Its the virus that has to get the right code.I call it the Bird Flu Code in my mind.Of course I am completely ignorant in virology, and my opinion counts as nothing.
Has there ever been a virus that reached this level that just faded away. Who knows the answer to this?
no such virus is known. But it likely happened before in the million years of human evolution.
Another question: if there had had been many H5N1-like victims before
in a pandemic or epidemic or epizootic, could archaeologists find
hints for this ? Where/what should they search ?
I am constantly enthralled by the need (?) for people to have experts tell them the actual chance of this H5N1 going pandemic. Is this part of the “needing some reality around this” thinking or what? (I am sorry, I cannot seem to get the words for this at present, I’ll keep trying.)
We do know that we have influenza pandemics on a reasonably regular basis - 3–4 times per century. We do know we are “due” for one. We have a virus circulating that is of the influenza type to which we humans have no immunity. We have a chance to observe and prepare. What are the odds that H5N1 will be the source of our next pandemic? I don’t know. What are the chances that something else will hit us from left field and be our next pandemic? I don’t know.
What I do know is that I need to be prepared for an influenza pandemic some time in the (near?) future. What I do know is that there are people out there watching for signs of a possible cause so we have a chance to be forewarned (if possible) that pandemic conditions are now prevalent.
Pandemics and tsunamis have a lot in common - in the (not too distant) past we didn’t know they were happening until they actually happened. Now we have a chance to be warned they are happening. It doesn’t stop them happening, it just gives us a chance to prepare and ‘lessen the damage’.
All this aside, I do enjoy the discussion about chances and odds. I see them as curious and incidental ‘chit-chat’ which satisfies my analytical right-side brain.
anonymous at 18:18, Thanks for that link, its reassuring. You’re right that we here will precict higher if only because we think aout it more than others. Ive also noticed that while my family practitioner is not worried at all about it, a friend who is an epidemiologist is MUCH more concerned. Lily at 18:19 The genetic factor seems significant, I hope we find out more regarding this soon. How would that be dealt with? Wouldnt it be nice if it was as simple as something that showed up in a physical trait so we could put our efforts into protecting the few at risk? But I guess the continued mutation would always be a factor. Like you I am completely ignorant in virology and Im just spouting off the top of my head.
anonymous at 18:18,
The scientists don’t want to give guesses because they have no data on which to base such a guess and they know it. On the list of possibilities, as the reveres reminded me on the phone t’other day, is that nothing will happen.
Dr. Bob’s rough actuarial estimates
Here’s Dr. Bob’s commentary:
‘’ We are looking at a process, not an event. And the process will continue until we have a pandemic or the virus disappears of its own accord.
If we have a pandemic—still very much an “if”, and by no means a certainty—the virus will cause through multiple clusters, until it “learns” how to efficiently transmit from human to human. Yes, H5N1 is an influenza virus capable of causing a pandemic, but no we are not here — yet.’‘
These are wise words.
Melanie, Thats the one Im hoping for.
Janet. I would encourage you the read the book, The Great Influenza, by Barry. This book gives alot of information about how the 1918 virus erupted, spread, and how the scientists attempted to learn about and treat the virus. It is a very interesting book and it’s almost like reading about what is happening today. Of course, health care back then was different, but we are more of a global society. If you haven’t read it, please do and let me know what you think about it. Some of it is kind of tedious, but push yourself through it, and some of your questions will be answered.
Indian. It’s funny how you put it. You don’t know where it came from but all of a sudden you prepared. That is what I did. Now that I think of it. I have no idea how I first read about bird flu. I do know that my two brothers started preparing in the seventies. They said be prepared. Be ready to survive. That only the strong will survive. I thought at first this to be strange. But I followed them in their quest. Both have since passed a way and now I feel it is my duty to protect my familys. My sister and her children. My own family. One thing I do know is that I am a decendent of the Pa nobescot Indians in Maine. My father, and two brothers and sister. Use to follow the customs of the Panobscotts. I find that I have a second intution on things. That I see things other don’t see. I am one with the earth. Changes are noticable to me.
My neice was reading a book a indian woman wrote about the changes to come in the future. And I am shocked at the truths in it.
I feel the pandemic is around the corner in the not to far further. This is just my gut feeling. I just came back from buying more supplies. Two more boxes of face mask. And I have the uncontrollable urge to go grocery shopping. But my husband thinks i am nuts. So much of what I am buying is being stored as if I never bought it. I told my mother inlaw that she would be thanking me. Because I am preparing. And those who didnt at least in my family will survive cause of my actions.
My doctor is one of the Infectious Disease Specialists for Mexico who is part of group of Doctors who deal with flu determinations for Mexico. He predicted two years to go pandemic and that was before Indonesia.
Melanie, you just keep repeating this “no data”-nonsense again and again without ever addressing any counter-arguments or doing any specification. That’s no useful discussion. Who do you want to convince this way ? Is there also “no data” in predicting chances for the outcome of a football-match ? Also “no data” in predicting probabilities for weather, elections, cosmic events, scientific theories ? “no data” and flu-scientists still have no problem to make predictions … as long as they are worded unclear enough.
Yes, nothing may happen. Of course. But how likely is it ?
AnnieB, we are not due to another pandemic. That theory had been rejected. Pandemics don’t come in cycles.
I would say there is a 100% chance of a pandemic flu not happening last year.
Everything that can happen will happen. You just can’t know precisely when. Volcanoes, tsunamis, earthquakes, plagues, wars and depressions all occur. Some are shockers, some are mild. We even get hit by asteroids! You all really want to know when and how severe. You can see by the spread of H5N1 that it will be soon and by its Indonesian fatality rate that it will be bad. All you can do is prepare for isolation in the short term and work out a better way to live on this planet for the longer term. And help each other with your great ideas and support. I ‘hope’ we get another 2 years, minimum, before it creates havoc.
NewGuy: you mean the whole thread is nonsense and we could as well talk
about whether 1+1=2 ? Or what ?
RA:not everything that can happen will happen.I have some counterexamples.
You can give your prediction, but don’t you want to see, what the
experts predict ?
I Have no medical degree I do not know how the sequences work, and most of you in here are brighter than I. From the small amount of data I have collected from other sources, I think that TPTB expect this to break by November 2006 with a 40 to 50 percent infection rate in the US and a 25 to 34 percent CFR in those infected. Duration of no more than 6 months first wave a slight break and 5 more months for wave 2 CFR on second wave in the 70′s unclear on wave 3. TPTB are really in full panic mode.
I can make a statistics that it’s i.e. the females who don’t like these probability estimates. There must be a genetic factor.
MajDad,who is TPTB ? Why do you conclude this ? I can’t see it. Can you give a referrence ?
Or the discomforting realization that we are the caretakers. And will be caring for our darlings without the prospect of a vaccine!
anonymous….
Nothing so profound. I just recognize that it is easier to predict the past than to predict the future.
I am predicting there will be no significant BF news in the next four days since my fourteen-year-old son just lectured me on staying off the laptop for the family camping trip. It will ruin the experience he says. He’s right but dang, will I be edgy not being able to get on. Maybe in the middle of the night…
Tom DVM,
Re your 15:20 post, I, I’m absolutely speechless (although perhaps not for long) - blown away, actually. I have the utmost respect for you - for your intelligence, your integrity and your willingness to lay it all out there, to not mince words, to not shrink back from expressing righteous outrage. I am hono(u)red by your words. And here I thought I was just an irritant.
Anyway, I am not going anywhere. As long as H5N1’s a threat, I’ll be following Flu Wiki. God willing, that is (God being God or a metaphor for whatever the mysterious life-giving force). And I hope you don’t go anywhere either.
As far as the thread topic goes, I personally could not give a number (and since I’m no expert, the mathematician formerly known as gs wouldn’t care anyway). Some days, some moments, a pandemic seems too ridiculous to believe. Other times I can see it. I can just see it.
Last week, my very best friend of all time came out for a visit from Indiana. Although she lived in California for a time many years ago, she had never been to Yosemite. (I myself hadn’t been there for almost 10 years, back when a gigantic landslide let loose on top of Happy Isles and missed my family by a day). Well, I took my friend to Yosemite last week. And it was absolutely holy. Maybe holy’s the wrong word; perhaps sacred would be better. I don’t know. But the waterfalls were fuller than I’ve ever seen; the Merced River was nearly overflowing. It was cool, it was warm, it was green, it was misty. It was a time and place of absolute wonder.
We only had 3 days, my friend and I, but in those 3 days we hiked the Mist Trail to the top of Vernal Falls (scarier than hell); we walked to Mirror Lake; we picnicked by the river, at trailside, and even took a couple of meals in the Camp Curry Cafeteria (well, it used to be a cafeteria, now it’s a buffet (thumbs down)), where we had the (temporary) smallness of spirit to bitch about the surly attitude of the staff and the shortage of shuttle bus service in the park; we saw Half Dome at its most magical - in the hour before sunset - and on our last day, on our way out of the park, we visited the Ansel Adams gallery, we watched teeny-tiny mountain climbers dangling from the face of El Capitan, we stopped at Yosemite Falls, and then Bridalveil Falls - where the volume and power of water (and the fact we had left our ponchos in the car) precluded us from getting too close - and we walked through the Mariposa Grove of ancient redwoods.
And I’m not sure why I’m sharing all this, except finally to say - at the risk of sounding melodramatic - that when our visit came to an end, when last Saturday I had to say good-bye to my friend, the parting was particularly painful because I couldn’t help but wonder if I was hugging my dear friend for the very last time. And that’s been on my mind ever since.
anonymous at 18:30 — Recent genetic reseach shows humankind has indeed come close to extinction before, for unknown reasons, about 75,000 years ago. We were down to as few as 1,000 souls. It’s called “The Great Bottleneck” and explains why humans are so genetically similar, much moreso than would be expected. Despite surface differences, we are more genetically similar to the remotest African Bushman than than any two chimpanzees are to each other — within the same troop! Volcanic eruptions causing climate change around the time of the die-off has been suggested as the cause…I’ve always considered that an incomplete answer as other, similar species (such as chimps) did not also die off. Epidemic? It’s possible.
Anonymous at 02:28 I can give no referance nor explain the TPTB. Just that is the way I am reading the tea leaves. I could be so far off that In 6 months you will all have a good laugh at me. Or.
Anonymous,
Unlike you, I put my name and my reputation on my posts. What I mean is that you can’t put odds on a pandemic the same way that you can on a sporting event. Odds are based on the past performance of the teams involved.
You can’t do the same thing with a novel infectious disease virus. We have no information which could guide us in making such a prediction.
Tom DVM: Regarding your “too kind” post-I just engage in random acts of posting. : )
And rather than chop my prediction up I will say what I have before—If a pandemic has not occurred by late Fall 2007 (or the clear runup to one in progresss, Stage 5, etc.) then I will begin to have a little confidence that maybe this virus won’t be the one. But right now, that confidence is skyhigh, and I believe that it could happen anytime. Indonesia has tipped me to sooner rather than later.
Melanie at 08:10: “You cant do the same thing with a novel infectious disease virus. We have no information which could guide us in making such a prediction.” Melanie, I think this gets right to the heart of the matter, at least for me. This H5N1 is not like West Nile virus, smallpox, or whatever the “scare du jour” (as one self-proclaimed “expert” puts it) happens to be. This is new territory. It’s like that old Sesame Street song, “One of these things is not like the other…” H5N1 isn’t, according to everything I’ve read here, like “the others”: it survives in the blood, it jumps from species to species with relative ease, and most importantly, it makes “liars out of the experts”, as oft repeated by our resident vet expert (Tom DVM). Hopefully, it will make a liar out of his prediction that there will be a pandemic within the next 12 months (although he’s been unnervingly correct on almost everything else so far). There is no way we can predict what this virus will do because it is, as you said, a “novel infectious disease virus”. I couldn’t agree with you more. I feel that its unpredictability is what scares everyone the most.
Anonymous at 02:28 Perhaps I do need to clarify what tea leaves that I am reading. Understand that everything is speculation on my part and I can not give any insight that you your self could not find.
First: This has been cooking for a while now. The US is way behind the power curve on this as compared to the EU. What is important to note is that the entire EU is prepared for this and many of those nations (the Swiss and the Danas) do not spend money on something that may or may not happen. The response of the Romanian government appears to be over kill, yet that were not letting up. That they have eased back a bit is a direct reflection of the EU telling them that they are scaring the heck out of the rest of the people. That the disease was able to be contained in Thailand and Vietnam tells me that the strain in Asia is not well developed yet.
This is what IN MY HUMBLE OPINION is happening.
The EU has clearly defined the H5N1 as a threat. That they expect it to infect the swine in Europe (which carries the H1N1) and that it will make the break out in Europe. They will have no warning. (Hence the Romanian response). The original break out in 1918 came from the US off of a remote farming community that most likely would have burned out in Kansas if not for WWI. With the globalization of the world economys, that break out will come from an Eastern European Country and the first wave will be the marriage of the H1N1 and H5N1 during the fall migration of the water fowl. (First Wave)
The second wave will come from Asia and it will be more H5N1 than the European strain. It is not fully cooked yet (many on this site acknowledge that) but the strain from Europe will cause the final leap in Asia and it will be more virulent and as such, more deadly than the first strain.
The unknown factor is what is happening in Africa. (Third wave???) We do not have enough information from that part of the world to know how much of a progression the disease has made there and if it will be the starting point or not. We all need to try and find that data out
Absorbing all the above posts and distilling, my final clear and firm conviction is: There is no way on Earth, absolutely no possibility, of our societies, nations or of individuals adequately preparing for the virulence, universality and long, long duration of this coming catastrophe. This has all the hallmarks of a civilisation-buster.
But, also, no more than that. It’s not the end of humankind. Merely a lapse back into something like the Dark Ages in Europe after the fall of Rome. And only for one or two brief centuries.
Then, the World Rennaisance arising first in … China? In South Asia? And so we go ‘round the mulberry bush.
< I am off to the seaside in the morning, for a few days of relaxation and reflection on the beauty of life today, >
We are still in what I call the limited Brushfire stage of virus spread. We have seen multiple hops in the spread between humans, but outside of close families we don’t see it spreading very well. That is because it is still a deep chest infection. When it gains the gene to be able to replicate in the inside skin tissue of the nose and throat, THEN it will become a pandemic strain.
To do so, it needs to recombine with a flu virus that already has that capacity. The likelyhood of that happening increases with a greater distribution of H3N1 or H1N1 or even H2N2 (if anybody can find it).
It is flu season south of the Equator right now, so if it becomes pandemic soon it will probably do so in southern Africa or South America (There is a far remote chance of Australia or New Zealand because of their low population.). As most of you know, I suspect that post Qinghai H5N1 is already in the Americas so we could see an outbreak in Argentina, Chili or Paraguay in the next few weeks.
I believe the greater likelyhood will be an outbreak contingent with the flu season in the northern hemisphere. In that case, it will probably mutate with greater likelyhood in November or December of this year.
For what it’s worth, I have a contact who said he was briefed that they were expecting something to happen this fall. Personally, I am skeptical of this information because I don’t know how they could possibly forecast that. There are so many unknowns right now. There is a growing sense of inevitability on the wiki and I think we need to step back and analyze why so many are assuming a pandemic is imminent. What data are we using to make this assumption? Are we going on a “gut” feeling? Sure, the worse case scenario could pan out. Or, H5N1 could burn itself out. We just don’t know. Accepting that uncertainity is difficult. However, I think it is more productive if we reign in our fears so we can examine the issue with a clear head. IMHO
The likelyhood of it burning itself out would be the same as the likelyhood of any human flu virus burning itself out. H1N1 is still here. It has been around for four generations now. H2N2 is still around, but is seldom found. H3N2 is coming around every year and is estimated to kill 30,000 Americans every year.
Melanie, attack the arguments rather than the name or reputation
of the poster or the history of his/her behaviour.
You’re still ignoring my points. It can’t depend on the level
of uncertainety. Estimates had been given in similar situations.
What when the football team is a newly formed team ? The virus is old ?
They still give estimates.
Where’s the threshold, since when you can estimate ?
We will see the uncertainety in the distribution (deviation) of the estimates.
When these are continuously distributed then indeed we can’t
say much. But this is not expected. See the distribution from
the 656 physicians, the percentages are not just random numbers.
Some experts do give estimates, just rarely clear numbers instead ranges and
we have to guess a bit on their definitions, but still useful.
If we “had no information which could guide us in making such a prediction”
then such unclear predictions were also impossible and all the statements
and interviews were just nonsense.
dejure:H5N1 being different is not important. We still have data (e.g. we know
it’s different). Experts are not liars, when their estimate is bad. It’s only
an estimate.
majdad, the EU is way behind the US in community and individual
preparing and awareness.
nicolai-sydney:it is possible to prepare and avoid H5N1,
a high-security laboratory is clearly protected. Lower security is still
helpfull but not so safe. Find your level and what you are willing to do.
Okay, H5N1 may simply not ever make the leap into humans in a sustained efficient way or it may evolve into a milder seasonal flu. I’m not saying these two options will occur or that they won’t because there just is no way to know.
Regarding making estimates, I think what we are making here are classified as SWAGs. Sophisticated wild-a** guesses. Nothing wrong with doing that as long as everyone understands that that is what is going on. It is the CERTAINTY of some of the posts which I find troubling. We just don’t have the data available to back up these predictions. TPTB don’t even have this data…Again, I have no problem with speculation but I believe that each of us has a certain responsibility to ensure that it is clear that our posts are speculation. If you have evidence to back up your claims, post it.
I assume that most of us here are rational in nature and do not necessarily need an ‘expert’ to tell us what is going on. While their opinions are influential, about all we can do is watch what goes on in the flu world and, using our own intuition, make our own plans. If no outbreak, what is the worst that happens to us? We have a lot of food and supplies on out hands. In many cases they can be used or consumed anyway. If there is an outbreak, we will be better off than those whose chose not to prepare.
There is no certainty to all this. Probabilities, yes, but they change from day to day. Again, it is up to each individual to decide how that change influences their daily life as regards to preparing for an uncertain future.
banshee at 10:58 re: “For what its worth, I have a contact who said he was briefed that they were expecting something to happen this fall.”
Who is “they”?
Bird flu is picking up speed and spreading faster and faster so I think that is why many feel a pandemic is an inevitability
Anonymous at 11:12: “Experts are not liars, when their estimate is bad. Its only an estimate.” I beg to disagree with you, sir. So-called experts ARE liars when they state with complete confidence that H5N1 will simply burn itself out, or when they say it will never be able to spread efficiently H2H because it has had plenty of time and opportunity and “hasn’t done so yet.” How many people rely on these so-called experts because they have a D-R in front of their name, or because they claim to know someone famous for their research in the medical community? Just take a look at the newspapers and see who the lazy reporters get to contribute to their articles. Their “small group of critics” are always made up of the usual list of suspects, who have no more knowledge about this particular virus than you or I do. Their irresponsible comments allow people who don’t believe they have the time or resources to worry about this to simply dismiss the H5N1 threat out of hand. Their “guestimates” do a disservice to their fellow man. Just how much of a disservice remains to be seen.
I’m getting to the point where I think anyone who uses “anonymous” without a further identifier (such as anon_22) should be automatically deleted. It’s just too confusing. I haven’t a clue as to people’s real names, but handles like Tom DVM or MajDad helps me understand what background they bring to the table. It helps me see thier viewpoint through their lens. When we get two (or more) “anonymous” es on it’s hard to keep straight who is saying what — because if you’ve seen a name on another thread you have an idea of what they already know or don’t know.
Please, people, don’t make all this even more confusing. Call yourself Einstein or Doofus or ANYTHING but Anonymous.
Will second that Olymom. Difficult for me to take someone posting as anonymous seriously and impossible to keep track of.
As a HCW I base my assumptions on the health of mankind—and it’s not so good. Weak host =strong bug. I can’t even go to the grocery store without hearing people coughing and hacking in aisles and its May! Our respiratory systems are weak—at least they seem to be judging from my co-workers and patients. Has anyone else noticed this?
The bottleneck 74,000 was probably caused by the eruption of Toba (Indonesia) BBC article The BBC article makes it sound like it’s a theory advanced by 1 scientist, but it’s propounded by many.
Melanie is right- there isn’t enough information out there to make a meaningful prediction. ‘Predictions are made, or chances are computed, by creating, at first, simple models with only a 1 or two variables, and then by ever increasing the complexity of the model until the scientists feel some measure of confidence that they have accounted for the major forcings, with appropriate fudge factors for chaos and random action.
You can’t compare making odds on a football game with maybe 40 key persons and the weather to account for, with making a rigorous forecast of the evolution of this virus. To try to do something like that for this virus, you’d have so many variables to account for, so many unknowns that just aren’t known, that you’d end up with error bars on the numbers that it would negate the prediction. Like there’s a 50% chance, plus or minus 50%.
Olymom12:25 Thank you form the lurs.
Wasn’t sure where to post this but I suppose this is as good a place as any. Laidback Al over at FluTrackers posted this regarding the progression of clusters. (Laidback Al - hope you don’t mind my re-post.) Interesting way to take another look at the data. My only caveat is I am not sure which data they have based this on.
“So far we have been counting and watching the the number of individuals go up for each cluster. Going back through the cluster data gives the following:
Number of clusters per year
2003….3 2004….5 2005…13 2006…12 (to date through 5/2006, projected up to 30 by year end).
Without doubt we are seeing an increase in clusters.
we are also seeing an increase in the average number of individuals per cluster.
2003 …. 2.3 2004 …. 3.0 2005 …. 2.5 2006 …. 4.3
I don’t think we can predict when it break loose, unless there are some modeling statistics relating to cluster size and inability to contain through isolation and blanketing treatments.”
so if stock prices have risen for the last 10 years, they’ll probably rise for the next 10 years to? BUY BUY BUY if that was the case.
Anon_today, If you read my previous posts you’ll realize that I don’t think that a pandemic is imminent. Possible, yes. I simply think this is another interesting way to look at the data. However, your point is taken and it is a good one.
banshee, call it whatever you are comfortable with - it remains the same.
3L120:the amount of reasonable preparations depends on the probabilities.
That’s why these are important.
dejure:you know that H5N1 will go pandemic, so you conclude those who
don’t think so are liars. But then you also say, it’s unpredictable.
Contradiction.
Olymom: apparantly you want to monitor behaviour rather than content
to come up with your judgement. I can anticipate you referring to previous
posts of the author showing behaviour which you think doesn’t match
your local,religious,political ideals of behaviour and ethics.
Melanie,dejure: what’s with the analysis of Neustadt,Fineberg,May and the
later conclusions of the members of the swine-flu committee ?
Uncertainety in 1976 was as big as now.
CDC has acknowledged their analysis in many papers and included it
into its smallpox planning.
The same CDC whose Gerberding now merely says: “chances can’t be predicted” !
Anon_today at 13:10
Some people do make money in the stock market. And if bird flu was a stock, then people would be buying it right now. It is important to look at the trends and yes trends could and do change.
Anonymous, “…the amount of reasonable preparations depends on the probabilities. Thats why these are important.” I think for many this is the crux of the problem. We all know a pandemic is possible. But, how should we prepare? For 2 weeks, 3 months, 6 months? What would be prudent? If we had a reasonable probability to work with, we could adjust our preparation accordingly. 5% chance this year? Maybe I should put a few things away but I’m not going to get a bleeding ulcer over it. 85% chance? Well, of course I would dedicate all of my available resources to prepare. The problem with probabilities is how do we account for all the variables and unknowns in such a way that we feel comfortable in using the probability as a guide for our preparations? If we guess too low, we leave ourselves exposed. Guess too high, well, for some they could have placed themselves in financial hardship with their preparations or caused themselves some considerable angst and disruption of their personal lives. I think you will continue to see a lack of consensus on this board and you will even see people contradict themselves simply because this is an emerging situation and people will change and refine their views as the information changes.
banshee,
I wish I could say things as well as you do. Thank you for all of your input.
banshee
well put…this is all about allocation of one’s own resources over a given period of time.
By running QA simulation for opportunity cost, varying different probabilities for pandemic, there is no justification for do nothing approach. Adjustment of a life style (preparation) can save money and increase comfort of living in the long run.
The art of war teaches us to rely not on the likelihood of the enemy’s not coming, but on our own readiness to receive him; not on the chance of his not attacking, but rather on the fact that we have made our position unassailable. Sun Tzu
banshee at 13:36
that’s why the experts shall give their estimates and discuss it !
Shall they form two panels now as in 1976 to come up with probability estimates
Their estimates should be better than the one which a normal citizen can make.
As a practicing therapist, I learned that people have an almost unbelievable intuitive ability. Patients would say they did not know if their husband was cheating, their son was an addict, or if they would get the needed raise at work. They would say that they had no way of knowing if their grandmother would die in the next month.
I would ask people to guess (not be right but simply guess) at what was going to happen and found over 25 years as a therapist that people know what is going on in their own life much more often than they think that they do.
I never tried it with a national disease such as AIDS but on an individual basis I found that people had an uncanny ability to know whether they that they had it or not. I have learned to trust others intuition more than they trust it themselves.
In our University cafeteria, there is a sign that states 5/4 people do not understand fractions. That would be probabilities too. Therefore, the heck with the numbers, scientific reports, expert opinion, etc, etc. What is you intuitive perception that within the next year you and your family are in for some very difficult times?
The amount of money, time and effort you have expended is one measure of your intuitive expectation.
In clinical work there is what I call scientific significance ( <.05, .01, .001 etc) then there is clinical significance; when the clinician has a hunch. No two variables reach significance by themselves but they way they go together lead to the conclusion that such and such is going to take place unless we get involved now. That is why it is called the art and the science of medicine.
I would suggest that most of you already know what will happen to you and your family. You already know who is most likely to bring it home, die, and who will survive.
Of course, we could also talk about the people who believe in little green men and their intuitions. However, these groups usually exhibit significantly (that science) more psychopathology than is seen around here.
Is it going to hit? What does your gut tell you? Mine says we are up for some difficult times.
And mine continues to say, watch, wait, watch, keep an ear and eye open, and continue to wait. Something will happen, but it may not be the pandemic. While I watch and wait, I don’t worry.Whatever happens, it is interesting, and I don’t consider it a curse to live in interesting times.
anonymous at 11:12
majdad, the EU is way behind the US in community and individual preparing and awareness.
That may well be true on an individual level but not so on the national level. Remember that most EU countries are no larger that some of the larger State in the US and They as governments have been working this issue for a longer time. Further the EU countries have not just under gone a Katrina where their ability to act was truly tested. They still think that they can handle it on a national level.
Lily, I never cease to amaze at how similarly we view living at this time. I’m not worried…just watchful, expectant although I won’t be surprised if we see something other than a pandemic. There remains that overriding sense that “something” is coming. I don’t pretend to know what, but being with likeminded souls makes the time pass more peacefully. The intellect says pandemic is quite possible, but so are a variety of other situations. I told a friend the other day, it’s like watching a mystery novel write itself. The nuances fascinate and the characters are creating their plots.
Thanks for all the great reads, all. Wish I had more time to play.
if it looks like s**t,and smells like s**t,there is a better then average chance it is s**t.
Pandemics timeline
Major outbreaks of disease through history
Phil Hoad Wednesday April 2, 2003 http://www.guardian.co.uk/medicine/story/0,11381,928203,00.html
JoeW, great post - Thank you!
To answer the question my opinion is that H591 will break out either this year or next and I have planned accordingly. I began my prepping in January as I watched the Turkey clusters unfold and have been steadily planning and purchasing food, survival supplies and medications ever since. During the times where there was no new info regarding bird flu and it seemed to be simmering down I did step back and ask myself if I had gone overboard (basically wondering if I had lost my mind and had gone over the edge), but then as soon as I did that things would take off again. With this last Indonesian cluster I find it very difficult to believe that this virus could/would just up and disappear, especially since everything we have seen to date this year is that it is becoming more established verses less. This is all from a laywoman’s perpsective.
This is off topic, but JoeW, did you ever publish the results of your poll that you took back in March? The Wiki went down around the time you were going to publish and I never have been able to find it to read the results.
Thanks!
Let me elaborate on my original post of 8:24.
The would-be skeptics of the probability of this looming pandemic are ignoring significant, underlying, worldwide trends which have been mentioned in other threads over these many months. I will briefly reiterate them here:
Repeated studies have linked climate change (both warming and the resultant environmental stress) with increased mutation at the cellular level.
The Solar Maximum is approaching. There is a high correlation between the onset of pandemics and the Solar Maxima. Some have attributed the connection to the worldwide warming that Solar Maximas generate. But another recent study also found a connection between the incidences of stroke and Solar Maximas. One of the authors of the study conjectured that the solar magnetic storms affected the earth’s magnetic field which in turn upset electro-chemical mechanisms in the body.
The host levels, man and beast, are at levels much higher than the last time a pandemic occurred in 1968, (more “slot machines” for the virus to play).
Chemical and plastic pollution are at unprecedented levels worldwide. That pollution is working synergistically on our bodies and on ALL living organisms in unforeseen ways. Some of the deleterious effects of the physiological stress are being documented such as immuno-suppressed organisms and again increased cellular mutation.
We have been seeing an acceleration of viral mutation worldwide over the last few years. (It was just confirmed that the recent “crippling disease” outbreak in the Seychelles was much more deadly this time around because the virus had made a significant mutation).
All animals and humans are much more mobile worldwide since our last pandemic in 1968, (so not only more hosts but more vigorous mixing).
Despite statements by the many “odds masters” that frequent this site there has been an historical regularity to pandemics. Mathematics aside, we are OVERDUE.
So you meld all of the above with “what is on the surface”, and what should you reasonably conclude?
To use a less crude saying than “inthehills” used and a little more appropriate to the topic-If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, it probably is a duck.
You skeptics are not seeing, because you do not want to see. There is something inherent in your makeup or situation that cannot allow you to make that last step. It is not SCIENCE, it is STUBBORNNESS.
If it were SCIENCE, you would allow ourselves only a very slight possibility of avoiding this “viral asteroid”.
Medical Maven at 19:15
Thank you for the post.
Isn’t the Solar Maximum six years away? When do you think the pandemic will hit?
I was confused.
Watch Dog: Global warming due to greenhouse gases and due to increased radiance of the Sun, (a 10,000 year peak currently) are already replicating the conditions that a Solar Maxima provides. I look upon the coming Solar Maxima (which by the way will be gearing up late this year or late next year and is forecast to be the strongest since 1957, another pandemic year) as the “fail-safe” mechanism for H5N1 to “make it over the hump”. This virus has so many things going for it. It is entrenched. Its timing is right. It is doing all the right things to get where it needs to go in order to become the next panflu.
I think the pandemic could happen at any time. I think it will certainly happen by late Fall 2007, and, if not, I give us a slight possibility of escaping this catastrophe. But, then again, H5N1 has all of the time in the world and the conditions just keep getting riper.
Hospitals “Full-Up”: The 1918 Influenza Pandemic
Short educational documentary
Medical Maven @19:15 Wow!! no really !!!!!
Medical Maven. It is hard to come up with the words to express just how good that piece of writing is…I guess the best I can do is clear, concise and complete.
JoeW, I’m disappointed. Now you want to decide this by the gut-feeling of the ordinary
people here ? What do we have these experts for ?
Shall they read the papers, analysize the data and discuss the probability
estimates in public.
MedicalMaven, give a link, when you think there is a serious study about this.
As far as I know these theories were discussed and refuted and most experts don’t believe in it.
I think it will certainly happen by late Fall 2007, and, if not,…
so, are you certain or not ?
I see this forum drifting away from statistics, science, like discussing the papers
from medical journals, like analysing and comparing the news from several sources -
towards telling personal stories, superstition, alarmism.
“Arguments” are becoming less logical and more emotional.
Hi anonymous. I know you probably don’t want to hear this but all we have are unknowns. There are no knowns…
…and like you, I am getting damn tired of the so called authorities beating around the bush.
I don’t think Dr. Nabarro and Dr. Webster could be accused of beating around the bush.
I also don’t think Dr. Butcher could be accused of the same.
So there are a few that have stood up but not enough in my opinion.
I don’t think there have been any studies to refute Medical Maven’s text and it seems factual if one looks at the big picture and the big picture is that something is pushing overall mutation rates in all geographical locations around the world…and it is specifically this evolutionary pressure of unknown origin that is going to push H5N1 to a pandemic next fall or early winter in my estimation…so my studies correlate with Medical Maven’s opinion pretty much exactly.
Anonymous - at 22:38
Once upon a time, I was much like you. I required that … everything had to be proven scientifically. You can’t argue with the data…
There truly is nothing wrong with that, but now I look at everything in a different “light” these days.
If 100 people , from all walks of life/careers were to stand up and explain/justify their position on this subject, I would most likely pay the most attention to “INDIAN at 15:39 “…
…Never… ever… ignore your Mother (Earth) when she’s trying to tell you something VERY important…
Live long and prosper… Mr. Spock
TomDVM, I don’t know what you mean with “unknowns”, “beating around the bush”, what’s the referrence ? You first need studies to support a theory, then these can be questioned you can’t refute such a theory per se. When mutations occur more frequently, I can’t see why this should be good for the virus.Its mutation-rate is adapted through evolution and we can expect it is almost optimal. I can’t see an evolutionary pressure of “unknown origin”. Where are “your studies” ? Who else thinks that next fall or winter is particularily likely ? Why is it ? Or is it just another “gut-feeling” ?
TC_in_CT, INDIAN: that’s nonsense. How can the animals in USA predict the mutations in Indonesia ??? And if, why should they be interested in _human_ pandemics ?
What I mean by unknowns is that there is no data upon which to make an indisputable prediction because by definition, a prediction is based on chance - probability.
I have looked at every shred of evidence about as many diseases as I could get my hands on. I have stuffed as many variables as possible into my memory banks…then I have taken twenty-years of experience with animal diseases, analyzed the data subconciously and out pops an answer…which is a pandemic in the next twelve months.
I really think you should consider Mr. Spock instead of anonymous…it’s kind of catchy.
anonymous. I don’t think you understand the term Indian. They are natives or aboriginals…not animals.
you doctors TomDVM,JoeW , please confirm that this INDIAN and MedicalMaven stuff is not accepted science.
TomDVM: INDIAN at 15:39 claims that she can draw concusions concerning the likelyhood of a pandemic from carefully watching the animals in her area.
anonymous The text by Indian is not driven by science but by nature and intuition. It doesn’t hurt anyone to have a little intuition in the discussion. I’ll bet you use intuition as well. Isn’t it what brought you here in the first place.
Medical Mavens text is science. What she said does have a scientific basis. I have known or sunspot activity and viral mutations for twenty-years. I didn’t really believe it until I saw a recurring pattern of viral and bacterial mutation. I originally put it down to global warming but it could just as easily be due to sun spots.
I know it’s morning where you are but I’ve got to go to bed…talk to you again.
TomDVM, what’s your background in virology and epidemiology ? Do you claim we should consider you an expert in pandemic-prediction ?
anonymous. You know exactly what I am and how I’ve described myself. I am a generalist and an intuitive thinker like Indian and Medical Maven. I think this happens when you are a disease fighter for twenty-years…when sometimes nature works with you and sometimes against you…and after a while you realize that nature is the real power.
I am not an expert in virology and epidemiology. What I am is an expert in phentotypic disease expression in nature…in other words what is in the textbook is not what’s in the field. I am an expert in interpreting how confusing text translates in nature.
Tom DVM: Thanks a bunch for your support. I was at a family dinner for the Memorial Day weekend.
anonymous: I hate to haul out another hoary old saying, but this following one certainly has you tagged---You can’t see the forest for the trees.
And that one won’t get through to you either because you arre truly lost in the thicket. You are not a “big picture” guy (or gal).
Medical Maven I’ve never seen you write as much as you did at 19:15. You really should do it more often.
It may not be science but it is knowledge of another kind. Science is only one way of coming to know. If your married, how did you make that decision? I’ll bet it wasn’t science.
Humans are finely tuned patteren recognition devices and I maintain that when they have taken in a great deal of data they often can recognize a pattern before some simple heuristic that in even multivariate studies can consider no more than 7–9 variables with any degree of precision.
Obviously, I would not ask a six year old to predict the likelihood of “bad things,” but an educated adult is a better predicting machine than even the individual thinks.
Ask someone who has been happily married for 50 years how they made the “right” choice. And of course the example also shows that some people are not very good at following their intuition.
It is interesting to note, in my prior work, how after the fact, and in a new marriage, the patient will say, ya know I knew from the start that he and I would probably never make it, but he was so much fun at first.
I would support anonymous’ implied and overt call for critical thinking. And I would support a bit more tolerance and less derisiveness from anonymous posters.
We all are at fault on this thread. We do not know the chances for a pandemic any more now than we did months ago when we had this discussion. We are still fans of ‘hope for the best, prepare for the worst’. For those who are not convinced we are about to see TSHTF (and I am one), we can call for critical thinking without calling the posters on the carpet. For those who are convinced otherwise, cool. State your reasons, proive your links and keep teaching each other.
That’s “teach”, not “convince”. That’s not why we are here.
Deb: search for “Flu Wiki Survey Summary” in the Forum and “Flu Wiki Survey” in the Wiki for the tables and numerical presentation. The results were interesting
Medical Maven/Tom- I would like some legitimate links or professional references for your broad statements that global warming can replicate the effects of the geomagnetic swarms of solar maxima, and for your statements about the effects of the solar maxima on terrestrial viral and bacterial mutation. thank you
The facts ae few and far between. We are long on speculation and short on facts. So what we wind up with is exploratory data analysis of data that are far too contaminated to derive any good hypotheses. In addition, to that we can’t test hypotheses anyway. So what is left — informed speculation and de-constructing every statement made by some politician who has received a summary from those who do the actual work. The whole thing is three times removed yet we seem to derive some pretty good insights in my opinion.
we seem to derive some pretty good insights in my opinion.
I agree. Still, nothing wrng with asking clarifiaction on what’s speculation and what’s not. We (on occasion) fall in the habit of stating/restating speculation as if it were fact because it’s been repeated often enough.
anonymous at 23:13
The Japenese people have a term for “inner harmony” , I don’t know how to how to really spell it, but it’s “ WA “….
A little over a decade ago I was a ‘profession” sailboat racer, yup, I sailed with and against “the big boys”. Our crew rode on thousands of $$$ worth of state of the art equipment. We beat “the best of the best” occasionally. That only happened when we were “one with boat… AND the ocean/wind…
The earth has a “harmony” to itself that can not be scientically explained, but it is real.
Do you live anywhere near Hurricane Alley? If so pay attention to nature 4,3,2 days before a hurricane lands near you… When a storm is a thousand nautical miles away… The animals KNOW it’s coming… and a lot more accurratley then NOAA could ever predict in my life time.
“INDIAN” is using a “science” that is thousands of years old. My trouble with your LOGIC is that you can not comprehend that. When she states that Mmother Nature’s “wa” is not right, I beleive her…
The part of all this that you are neglecting to acknowledge is that Mother Earth has a harmony to herself, and that all of here creatures
anon: I don’t have time for these “vetting” games. The fluwikie archives have most of the links, and if you are as knowledgeable as you seem to be, none of these findings should come as a shock to you. Google the rest. Your specialty must be very demanding and limiting.
I am very careful about what I state as fact. More than several references have fixed those facts in my mind. And I will not be your factotum. I am going to bed.
MM, goodnight, perhaps tomorrow you will provide the reference. If you state that so and so is fact, the onus is on you to back it up. That’s only polite. But it is late, your probably tired and maybe tomorrow ??
Medical Maven at 19:15
Thank you for your input. I thought the Solar Maximum was six years away. The Mayan Calendar ends Dec 2012 and I thought that was a year of solar maximum. Doesn’t this happen every 11 years?
JoeW, make a study to support your theory of “knowledge of another kind”, select a large enough sample and do the statistics. If it is significant, I predict you’ll get the Nobel-price. But I also predict that you will fail. When you only mean, people often have a good feeling about their body and condition often more than the physician who has all the test results and other data - OK, that might be. They have more information about their body which they can hardly all describe and express. But they have _not_ a “gut-feeling” about other areas like pandemic-prediction.
DemFromCT, I disagree.We should say what we think. This is not a coffee-klatsch, or an exercise in politeness behaviour. We are debating about millions of deaths.We do know the (subjective) chances of a pandemic and we do know it better than months ago. “hope for the best, prepare for the worst” is just nonsense. (think about it !) We are not really convinced either way by now. It could happen or not, we are just checking the likelyhood of these two.
this is not like a hurricane or a sailing tour or forecast of local nature events. It’s different. You can’t predict or analyse it with intuition.
anonymous at 00:35
This thread has a lot of value for most of that spend time in this thread. Like you said, we are talking about millions of deaths. So with such an important topic why are you spending your time in a thread that makes no sense to you?
anonymous, I would say there is a 90% chance you were formerly known as gs or Guenter.
at 00:44, ‘this is not like a hurricane or a sailing tour or forecast of local nature events. Its different. You cant predict or analyse it with intuition.’
Maybe not, but you can’t predict or analyze it with the facts either. The experts don’t know enough to know exactly what or when it will happen. Noone does. An excerpt from an article today to illustrate :
How serious is the situation? The outlook is plagued with frustrating uncertainties for decision makers and forecasters alike. The final pre-condition for a pandemic - that the virus already proving lethal in birds mutates into a form that is easily transmitted between humans - has yet to be met. So far, there have been just 208 confirmed human cases and 115 deaths. As Martin Meltzer, an economist at the US Centres for Disease Control, puts it: The crystal ball is not just foggy. its completely pitch black
more http://tinyurl.com/ottdn
We here the same thing from scientists again and again ‘We don’t know….’
In the absence of pure knowledge what else is there to go on other than intuition?
the subject of the thread makes sense. Just some posts are drifting away from the problem, which is that experts refuse to give estimates. So we are on our own to predict the chances and that’s the ground for speculations like the above ones. Ask the experts for estimates ! Write to CDC and politicians to require the CDC-panels to be formed now as in 1976 !
I’m frustrated too! See everyone on Monday, I’m out
MaMa:I’m in close contact with “gs or Guenter” and I agree on his views.
That includes the possibility that I “am” gs or am just forwarding
his posts - I’m not going to tell you.
Argue about the views presented instead about the person behind it.
I’m only asking for probabilities. They do exist.
Don’t ask the virologists, whether probability estimates are possible
or not or chances are predictable.
Ask the logicians,philosophers,mathematicians.Health-experts did it
in 1976 and later analysis showed that they should have intensified on this.
When Meltzer’s crystal ball is completely black, then why does he claim
that his work has any value ? Why do we follow the news and read the statements
and papers at all when they are useless to improve our predictions ?
I don’t think the crystal balls are darker here than on many other
situations where predictions were given and experts didn’t have to
hide behind black crystal-balls.
‘Im in close contact with gs or Guenter and I agree on his views. That includes the possibility that I am gs or am just forwarding his posts - Im not going to tell you. Argue about the views presented instead about the person behind it.’
Who you are doesn’t matter. I was merely stating a probability.
I know you’re asking for probabilities and wouldn’t it be lovely if we could have some idea of what was coming and when? The fact of the matter is that not enough is known about past pandemics and the behavior of this particular virus to have data on which to base the probabilities you’re looking for. We follow the news to have warning as soon as possible of something that cannot be predicted with any degree of accuracy. We follow the news to learn of developments on goverment and business preparedness, vaccine and treatments, etc.The only thing we do know is that it’s coming- not when or how severe. So we watch and prepare and affect positive change wherever we can.
If the numbers exist, whoever knows isn’t telling.
Interesting discussion. One side seems to be arguing for strict scientific facts/data/proofs, while the other is more open to information that might be classified as less tangible and intuitive. I feel like I’m watching a ping-pong game going between these opposites. Well, in My work, we have a saying “The impact of opposites is the same.” To understand this, one must put the emphasis on the word “impact.” The two sides are seemingly not the same, yet their impact is. And that is where the trouble comes in, because as I see it, the answer is not located at the extreme of either pole.
Nature supports this: we live in a dualistic world, male/female, day/night, cold/hot, a complete breath is in AND out, our heart beat and brain waves have both an “up” and a “down” side if they are working correctly. No up AND down and we are probably dead. Its common knowledge that we have two sides to our brain: the left/logical/scientific and the right/artistic/intuitive. So, to me, as I view parts of this discussion it would appear that some want to argue that only one side, or one WAY of gathering information can be correct. To me that compares to arguing for 1/2 of a breath, a brain wave or a heart beat.
There are benefits and strengths in BOTH sides. We need both and are severely weakened if only one side were the correct one. And, if memory serves, I believe there have been several scientific breakthroughs that were credited by the discoverer as being intuitive [wasn’t it the carbon ring that came in a dream?] Einstein was forever making statements that would place him squarly in the “right brained” group as well.
Now, I’ve said before I’m not a scientist, so I guess that puts me in the same “side” as Indian and JoeW [if they’ll have me.] Yet I work with lots of scientific types and I’m happy to have them in my life. You see, I train therapists, physicians and other healers how to use intuition in their work. BTW, I generally find that when they begin to use their intuition, if often feels to them as if the information is coming from their gut! Why? Haven’t a clue, but that is a very common experience. Also listen to very successful CEOs. When questioned about what they did what they did to become successful you’ll often hear them say. “I followed my gut.”
MaMa:suppose, we increase our knowledge, at what point exactly would you say
that “enough” is known to base probabilities on ?
“cannot be predicted with any degree of accuracy” huh ? You mean:
accuracy is low (uncertainety is high) and deviation of expected
expert estimates is high ? But what’s the problem ? We will see
how high the deviation is. And I predict it will be lower
than with typical sport or economy predictions.
Numbers do exist by axiomatic postulate. Everyone has his/her
number for the pandemic-likelyhood. Some are more profound
than others. Experts do withhold their numbers. They are not trying to
discuss them and to discuss other expert’s numbers so to improve
the estimates. Given enough discussion all experts should finally
agree on the same number and deviation would go to zero.
I do encourage to start this process now.
MAinVA, I can’t see how both views can have positives here. The positions are opposite. What you classify as “gut-feeling” , I interpret it as an abbreviation for “it’s too difficult to explain the pros and cons are difficult to express with language, it can be done but it’s a lot of effort”
Well, this anonymous is the smug one. Maybe I can figure out who is saying what by adding my own tag lines in my brain. Yeah, anonymous, I’m not that keen on your behavior. You seem to enjoy throwing out little “gotcha” speedbumps while some of the rest of us are trying to untangle all the bits and pieces of information.
“Given enought discussion all experts should finally agree on the same number” --- don’t think so. We can’t even get experts of the world to use the same measurement systems (such as temperatures in the same scale). Man, NONE of the scientific meetings I’ve ever attended ended with all the experts agreeing (well, maybe that the department should pick up the bar tab . . .)
anon — EXACTLY, the positions are opposite!! Got that right. Yet you seemed to have missed my point: We need both sides. One without the other is only 1/2 of the whole. I believe that the reason that the scientist made their “intuitive breakthroughts” was because they had gone as far as the left logical brain could take them. Yet, it was also in their working to collect data, make studies, etc that they then, in stepping away from the problem, had somehow earned the right to have the answer — the whole — come together in a flash. We have square off opposite each other or we can work together in a way that can move things forward.
When I train the physicians especially I tell them to use all their medical knowledge, do the tests, and if they are still stumped, then to step back and call in the intuition to put the left brained knowledge they have gathered together in a new way so that the answer that is eluding them can come in — generally in a flash of insight! Intuition
anon — EXACTLY, the positions are opposite!! Got that right. Yet you seemed to have missed my point: We need both sides. One without the other is only 1/2 of the whole. I believe that the reason that the scientist made their “intuitive breakthroughts” was because they had gone as far as the left logical brain could take them. Yet, it was also in their working to collect data, make studies, etc that they then, in stepping away from the problem, had somehow earned the right to have the answer — the whole — come together in a flash. We can continue to square off opposite each other or we can work together in a way that can move things forward. Using left brained numbers it would mean 1 + 1 = 100 instead of 1 - 1 = 0
When I train the physicians especially I tell them to use all their medical knowledge, do the tests, and if they are still stumped, then to step back and call in the intuition to put the left brained knowledge they have gathered together in a new way so that the answer that is eluding them can come in — generally in a flash of insight! Intuition
What are probabilities, predictions based on? Facts, numbers, right?
IMO not enough is known about past pandemics to provide a base to work from. Do we have information on the characteristics of pandemic causing influenza viruses from the past? How they behaved and spread in the months or years preceding the onset of pandemic? No. Do we know how many and the characteristics of viruses that have attained the geographical spread and the amount of infection in humans but died out anyway in the past? No. We have never had the technology before to track and learn these things. H5N1 is a unique virus, the world today is different than it was 50 or 100 or 500 years ago in ways too numerous to count.
Anybody can make a prediction, based on what little they know or their ‘feeling’. How accurate is is or isn’t would be known in time. I would like to know the true probabilities too, but wishing and hoping doesn’t change the fact that probabilities based on thin air are really just a guess.
Sorry for the double post — the second is the corrected one.
MAinVA, opposite was not the right word. I mean contrary, mutually
contradicting each other. The question is not which data should be included
or how it should be interpreted. The question is whether expert
probability estimates of a pandemic are useless (“impossible”)or not.
MaMa, even if nothing were known about previous pandemics we could make
estimates. When you say :”do we know..no.”, we know a lot to estimate these
things. We are not 100% certain, but maybe 90%. And even if we knew everything
about past pandemics, you would still find an excuse like the world being different today. You didn’t answer whether there is any situation where
you think that estimates are possible and where you want to put the threshold here. How much info is required for an estimate being possible ?
When we study H5N1 for 10 more years, would that suffice ?
Strangely enough the less informed people _can_ give estimates
and do so in polls but the experts “can’t” (don’t want to).
MaMa at 02:09 has effectively summed up this whole thread. If you want a scientific expert to give you a prediction, or a probability, they will only do so if they feel they can give a number that has some validity. If it is just intuition or guesswork they’ll keep mum, because that is not their job, and don’t fault them for that. There’s a saying about scientific models and programs— garbage in, garbage out—. If there isn’t enough background information (and just how long have been able to study viruses and outbreaks in such detail?) or process knowledge, it would be as MaMa said, basing a probability on this air. I heard a major city official quote a 50% probability in 5 years, but it was in a very informal setting, although still in an official capacity, and I felt he was overstepping his bounds because he was not a virologist and he even admitted he was only basing it on what he could gleam from various publications and webpages.
I think the idea that we’ll get honest predictions is only true up to a point. H5N1 will probably not mutate into a godawful pandemic strain, but the possibility exists. As long as the mortality and infection rates don’t skyrocket, which they probably won’t, we’ll get reasonably honest answers from the powers that be. If the thing does explode, which is kind of what all the fuss is about, the truth will be in short supply. Fictional pandemics like The Stand (King) and Full Circle (Boyle) paint a grim but probably realistic portrait of the coverage such a thing would receive while it’s in progress.
Anon_today at 2:27
and why was it different in 1976 when experts _did_ make probability estimates ?
Why did later analysis recommend that this should even have been done
more extensively by answering hypothetical questions like :”what new data
might make us change our mind” ? And why do people keep ignoring
this point in this thread ? Estimates were being made and are being made.
Just recently not by those who should be considered most competent.
Remo at 02:47:
I won’t rely on reasonably honest answers from TPTB, when the experts
have none. TPTB usually say, what they want you to believe and not
what they really think.
I am still unclear why numerical predications are necessary . Stuff happens. Some of it can be really bad stuff. We can either be prepared to take care of ourselves or we can be victims (or, maybe someone else will bail us out). It helps to have an idea of what particular stuff is on the horizon, but its not necessary. The more we learn, the better chance we have of adapting.
As far as intuition goes- good grief! If we had to stop and look at/verbalize every bit of data that goes into our brains, gets sorted around and comes out as good knowledge, we’d be paralyzed! Some people are better at putting it all together than others. That doesn’t mean we rely on it to decide when/if BF gets here this year or next. It does make me pay attention when things don’t feel right. I pay even MORE attention when a lot of people think things don’t feel right.
kc_quiet at 03:11
numerical predictions are especially important for the communities and
states and nations to base their preparations upon.
Well, that makes sense- thanks. (although it wouldn’t hurt them (us) all to be a little more prepared for a variety of things, at least as far as planning goes. )
Just a reminder: we have no data and everything which is stated here is speculation, guesses. Perhaps informed guesses, but without data, we have no idea how informed.
Dem and I attended a flu conference last fall with all of the leading scientists in the flu fight. We spent an entire session on statistics and probabilities and the one thing that was drilled over and over is that putting a number on this is something that no sane statistician would do because we have no data. Anyone who does is just plucking a number out of the ether.
For those of you who know set theory, let me state it for you in those terms: the set which is relevant for this discussion includes zero% and 100%. Find your way through that.
Melanie, how often have you just repeated this without ever addressing the counterarguments ? That’s not a useful discussion. There is lots of data and it has been done. 656 US-physicians,2 CDC-panels,1 committee,Webster,etc., CDC-recommendation is to intensify assigning probabilities. Many experts assign ranges instead of numbers or give unclear statements giving room for speculating about their numbers. At what point do you think there is enough data ? Give an example. Address my points.
you can’t decide a statistical,logical,philosophical issue by letting flu-scientists vote on it. They are biased. They can give numbers but don’t want to.
anonymous, if you think a prediction can be made then you too must think it can be based on something. What are the relevent data points for a prediction? Should the prediction take into consideration prior probabilities and what would these prior statistics be.
You advocate for a prediction but you do not state on what the prediction should be based.
Hi everyone. anonymous, my friend, I’m sure you are trying to get a point across but I don’t understand the point you are trying to make.
You want everyone to stand up, be counted, and make a prediction. I agree, knowing that there is no evidence other than intuition upon which to make the prediction…but that is exactly what I want. JoeW has a lifetime of experience in psychology…
…believe me, I want to suck the intuition out of his brain like a mosquito…psychology is important and will be especially with the life-altering shock of a pandemic (immediate post traumatic stress for us who have been watching and waiting and warning).
There are a lot of what I would call experts at life on flu wiki. I would like to gather and learn everything I can from them so that my life is richer for it.
I want the opposite to you. I am specifically asking for intuition based on fact…I want what their life-time of experience is telling them will happen.
I spent too many years reading dry information in text-books only to realize that the text-books correlate with little that goes on outside of the university grounds.
So bring it on…everyones opinion on flu wiki is important…you don’t have to have degrees…the best information in fact has not come from people with degrees…let us harness humanity on this forum to benefit humanity and if we fail to prevent things then it will not have been for lack of trying.
In fact, I know that we are leading the field in some of the things that we have been able to extrapolate and predict from the minimal information that has been released.
Mr. Spock, you are an important component in this process.
Remember those old 1960′s movies of the Gods sitting around a table moving “World event chess players” This dreaded event here….this army there…millions of people dead with another move of the player… Well, I feel like I’m in one of those old movies right now!!!
The world has been corrupted and made vulnerable by a “just-in-time” culture. Many here and around the world want a “just-in-time” pandemic so they can adjust their supplies, attitudes, mindsets, and say their goodbyes at the last opportune minute. It doesn’t work like that.
There are no absolute certainties. There are probable certainties.
It is a probable certainty that the sun will rise tomorrow. It is also a probable certainty that we will experience another pandemic.
What are the surface and underlying trends telling you about the timing of the next pandemic, a probable certainty?
Go out and get really drunk, wipe the slate clean with a little temporary oblivion. Then look anew with fresh but bleary eyes at all that has transpired these last few years, like you have just dropped in from Mars. What would your “gut” tell you as to the near-term likelihood of a pandemic?
Many of us have been immersed in this for so long that we are like the frog that is being slowly boiled in the pot, and the frog thinks that everything is okay because the escalation in temperature is only gradual and only mildly discomforting. But soon the boiling point will be reached, and that probable certainty will have arrived.
JoeW at 08:39
the predictions should be based on all available data, of course.
>Tom DVM at 09:16
>Hi everyone. anonymous, my friend, I am sure you are trying to get
>a point across but I do not understand the point you are trying to make.
which of my points exactly did you fail to understand ?
>You want everyone to stand up, be counted, and make a prediction.
not everyone, just the experts and they need not stand up.
>I agree, knowing that there is no evidence other than
>intuition upon which to make the prediction but that
>is exactly what I want.
with whom do you agree here ?
>JoeW has a lifetime of experience in psychology believe me,
>I want to suck the intuition out of his brain like a mosquito
if he does not want to give us his number, we should not
hurt him
>psychology is important and will be especially with the
>life-altering shock of a pandemic (immediate post traumatic
>stress for us who have been watching and waiting and warning).
yes, but that’s another subject
>There are a lot of what I would call experts at life on flu wiki.
>I would like to gather and learn everything I can from them so
>that my life is richer for it. I want the opposite to you.
you don’t want me to gather and learn or you don’t want to gather
and learn with me ?
>I am specifically asking for intuition based on fact I want what
>their life-time of experience is telling them will happen.
name it intuition based on fact (just another expression)
>I spent too many years reading dry information in text-books
>only to realize that the text-books correlate with little
>that goes on outside of the university grounds.
apparantly you read the wrong books
>So bring it on everyones opinion on flu wiki is important
>you do not have to have degrees the best information in fact
>has not come from people with degrees let us harness
>humanity on this forum to benefit humanity and if we fail to
>prevent things then it will not have been for lack of trying.
what exactly do you suggest to try here ?
>In fact, I know that we are leading the field in some of the
>things that we have been able to extrapolate and predict from
>the minimal information that has been released.
>Mr. Spock, you are an important component in this process.
sorry, this is all difficult to understand for me, what you mean.
You did not address the points from my previous posts.
>><<
And who said these threads are all the same?
anonymous. On your first point, there is no evidence other than that from the last ten years. H5N1 is one of those rare occurences where there is no evidence and little history…so spell out for me what exact evidence you think anyone could present.
I agree with you that those asked should make the prediction requested to the best of their ability…
…by the way, I would like to request your predictions…as many as you can present…you can sit down however while you give them!!
As far as JoeW, I will try and leave enough blood for him to live.
You want facts, I am more interested in intuition. I want you to give me your intuition.
I read the required textbooks for my profession and found them largely useless when dealing with the expression of diseases in the field.
I said bring it on because I have found that the key piece of evidence that often decodes the puzzle come from the most unlikely of sources…to hear it you must hear all sources.
I think I did comment on all your points from previous posts.
anonymous, you’re spoiling for a fight, as usual, with those who don’t see the world the way you do. Chill. Most don’t.
If the virologists and epidemiologists don’t agree with you, they’re ‘biased’. If you don’t agree with why you’re not given estimates , you’re getting ‘platitudes’. If you’re asked to tone it down, you claim the right to be rude because ‘millions of lives are at stake’. If you’re paraphrased, you’ll claim to be misquoted.
You’re more than welcome here, (you always have been) and I agree with those who find your POV refreshing and necessary. But respect, more than politeness, to your fellow posters and their disparate opinions is a requirement, and not an optional attitude. Consider that a fair warning.
Joe W, Tom DVM: Both of you, thank you for contributing.I have been very interested in your thoughts. Like both of you, I am keeping a finger to the wind of intuition, both mine and of others. Our collective “sense” of the patterns in the noise may well be all we have to go on. So far as preps go, tuna under the bed is easy but I think the real rubber-meeting-the-road intuition is what we do with our money. In that light, here is where my intuition has led me to stand, as of now:
Have identified assets that can be liquified quickly and lined them up, but have not done so yet.
Have looked at converting assets into rural properties, have toured several, but have not yet purchased.
Other actions in process:
Had until recently, never touched a gun before or considered buying one. Have recently begun researching purchases and have actually gone out to a gun range for a “ladies day” training session. This is HUGE for me. To my surprise, I am a good shot.
Even though my husband and are economical people, we have purchased and expensive All-American (worth it!) canner and have been putting up food. Our children have food issues due to severe food allergy; “survival rations” would probably be fatal for them.
I began prepping seriously since, hmmm, about October — maybe earlier. I have never prepped before and was prepping for months before I found the Fluwiki and discovered, amazed, other people were doing so as well. I am a flu-watcher, have been watching this one since ‘97. My husband considers me *very* intuitive; he was giving me the hairy eyeball about prep food but one very short conversation about it got him on board. It must not have been what I said but how I said it — he just gave me a funny look and he was a convert.
I have mentioned bird flu to few people — friends and family — but almost all have taken me very seriously and are now prepping.
I was coasting for a while, but have now begun stepping up the prepping again with the news out of Indonesia.
So several of my “tipping points” have been passed yet there are others — and I won’t know where they are until I pass them — that have not yet been reached. But I feel they are closer.
OK, now for the pure guesswork: when I ask my intuition “when?” the only answer I get is “cold… cold, so very cold.”
So I am guessing, winter.
TomDVM, you write:
>On your first point, there is no evidence other than that from
>the last ten years.
we can use all archeological data available about possible previous
pandemics as well. We can use all research done ever on flu- or other viruses.
>H5N1 is one of those rare occurences
not so rare. Similar things happen frequently. Just this got our
attention because of the possible dramatic consequences
>where there is no evidence and little history
quite some evidence and long history back to 1918 at least.
>so spell out for me what exact evidence you think anyone could present.
all the data in the fluwiki, in the medical books and papers.
Data about previous pandemics, virus evolution, receptors,
antigens,antivirals,vaccine etc.etc. tons of data.
The more you have read the better your estimate should be.
>I agree with you that those asked should make the prediction
>requested to the best of their ability
good ! And then let’s discuss and compare their estimates
and hope that they will more and more agree upon one value.
>by the way, I would like to request your predictions
>as many as you can present you can sit down however
>while you give them!!
1% probability for a pandemic per month.
>As far as JoeW, I will try and leave enough blood for him to live.
?
>You want facts,
here in this thread I want estimates
>I am more interested in intuition. I want you to give me your intuition.
is it different from what I want ? What do you mean with intuition ?
>I read the required textbooks for my profession and found them
>largely useless when dealing with the expression of diseases
>in the field.
>I said bring it on because I have found that the key piece of
>evidence that often decodes the puzzle come from the most
>unlikely of sources to hear it you must hear all sources.
I have no special sources here but let me repeat the analysis
of Neustadt+Fineberg, Neustadt+May and their suggestions how
to achieve good estimates.
>I think I did comment on all your points from previous posts.
why doesn’t CDC form panels to make probability estimates
as they did in 1976 and according to their own guidelines ?
Why do so many people think this shouldn’t be done
despite the importance of the decisions to be made ?
Why do people ask for chances and don’t insist on answers
(see Gerberding, first post in this thread, many other
examples) ?
Why can physicians and experts in 1976 make estimates
but not experts in 2006 ?
Why should uncertainety be bigger now than it was e.g. in 1976,
although we did lots of research in the meantime ?
Because we know more about what we don’t know. if people don’t think they can make an accurate estimate, they won’t make an estimate.
Why is that such a difficult concept for you to grasp? You’ve been rejecting it for months.
This was a fun thread before it turned into a flame war. :(
anonymous. Your estimate was intriguing. We live in a world of uncertainties at the moment. That may be the best we can do.
I believe that we have covered the issues as completely as possible in the last three months and now it seems we are going over ploughed fields…not that that’s a problem…
…and I think that conclusions reached here have been quite accurate over the time period…and more accurate then most of the supposed experts.
FACT A: Seasonal flu is transmitted by coughing and the resultant hand-to-hand-to mouth/nose/eyes route.
FACT B: Flu transmission by coughing defines “easily” transmissible flu.
FACT C: WHO says that coughing was the likely route for this H5N1 transmission.
So, If A = coughing spreads flu, B = easily transmissible flu and C = H5N1 flu, this is what we know: A=B and A=C.
What we can conclude, then, is B=C. Easy transmissible flu = H5N1 flu.
Help me out: I seem to remember this principle from Algebra I in high school and/or Logic 101 in college. Did everyone at WHO cut class that day?
I think that conclusions reached here have been quite accurate over the time period
One example is Flu Wiki and the other flu blogs and BBs picking up on H2H well before WHO was ready to say so. We went rather quickly from “no comment” to, “well, it’s common ehough and it’s happened before”.
AVanarts at 10:42
My apologies. I should know better. I get torqued at seeing the same argument month after month by the same people.
SoCal at 10:49
That’s the worry, but data doesn’t support that. No one outside the cluster is coming down with it. it is transmissible, but not easily transmissible.
Dem, that comment wasn’t aimed at you, but at the general direction that this thread had taken.
>DemFromCT at 10:14
>anonymous, you are spoiling for a fight, as usual,
not true. It’s relevant discussion. Just that I disagree
with you and others doesn’t mean I’m spoiling for a fight.
Be more specific, if you think I just bring this up
for the sake of arguing or “fighting”. Don’t you agree
that this is important and _should_ be discussed since
apparantly many people here disagree ?
The fact that only gs and me brought this up so far
here is a shame for fluwiki IMO.
>with those who do not see the world the way you do.
it’s not about a general philosophy on how to see the world.
It’s about giving probability estimates for a possibly life-changing
event. It’s one of the main reasons why we are here and following
the news, so I don’t know why you are trying to denigrate it
as a personal problem.
>Chill. Most do not.
I claim that most who have expertise in decision making and
statistics do. Neustadt+Fineberg+May+CDC apparantly do.
It seems just to be some cultural problem with people here.
And maybe some genetic factor with the prevalent females here.
>If the virologists and epidemiologists do not agree with you,
>they are biased.
they are biased because they do not want to give estimates.
They are afraid of their estimates being discussed and possibly
questioned in public. It happened with the early 2–7million deaths
estimate of WHO. Clearly experts avoided to give estimates
since then. See also the well known Webster-estimate and how
he retracted to a “no one knows”-strategy after being critisised.
They avoid the subject. They do not argue why they can’t
give estimates. Why others can give estimates but experts can’t.
>If you do not agree with why you are not given estimates ,
>you are getting platitudes.
other than you, I’m trying to discuss the reasons and figure out
the truth. Give an example, what you mean with platitudes.
>If you are asked to tone it down, you claim the right
>to be rude
give an example where I was rude or where I claim the right to be rude.
I’m trying to avoid it.
>because millions of lives are at stake.
do you disagree here ? I mean, we should be allowed to discuss this
controversy , as BTW. is quite custom in other places in internet.
It’s not useful to avoid important subjects just because there
is disagreement and engaged arguing.
>If you are paraphrased, you will claim to be misquoted.
again, give an example here. BTW. it’s hard to read these posts
when you write them in one piece without the refering
quotes, as I do here and as proved useful in decades of
usenet-debates.
>You are more than welcome here, (you always have been)
>and I agree with those who find your POV refreshing and
>necessary. But respect, more than politeness, to your
>fellow posters and their disparate opinions is a requirement,
you have to question when you disagree, how else can you
start the discussion ? It’s not “respectless” in general
only about the special argument.
>and not an optional attitude. Consider that a fair warning.
I’m missing your desire here to figure out the truth and the
possible implications for panflu-preparing and information.
It’s not just talking about _something_ and figuring out who
is right or who shows what you think is the best behaviour
and ethics.
It’s important to get experts giving estimates
so I tolerate people marking me of bad behaviour or such.
Sorry, I have to continue. You’ll have to ban me if you
think there is reason.
Is this thread serving any useful purpose at this point?
Youll have to ban me if you think there is reason.
You haven’t given me reason, though I suspect it’s happened to you before elsewhere. Look, we are all on the same page about wanting data, but if it’s not there, it’s not there. You’ve tried to obtain it. If you had it, you’d post it.
And obviously, it’s not a universally accepted truth that it’s important to get experts to give estimates. Being expert in a certain field doesn’t make you especially qualified to give accurate estimates in the sense that you mean. That’s one reason why you don’t have what you’re asking for. It’s not a conspiracy to withhold information.
I’ve discussed this with risk managers tasked with telling their employers the risk of a pandemic. They all want the answer we don’t have. They’re as frustrated as you are. The rest of us don’t need a number to proceed.
I will politely and respectfully wait for your response.
Paralegal, our unnamed friend is reflecting frustration that is shared by the ‘numbers’ people, as I mentioned in my post above. I am sympathetic. I do think it’s important to understand and have that POV reflected on the wiki.
In fact, I would love to have anonymous or anyone else get that elsewhere and bring it back here if it exists. It’s not to be found here.
BTW, anyone interested should go here. These are the best numbers we have, albeit a tad dated.
>DemFromCT at 10:36
>Because we know more about what we do not know.
but then we do know, or not ?
>if people do not think they can make an accurate estimate,
what’ an “accurate” estimate anyway ?
>they will not make an estimate.
they will also do this, when they think an estimate is bad for
their career or makes them look silly. I know, that you know
that experts easier do make estimates when they can remain anonymous.
That pretty much proves, that the real reason is not that
they think they can’t make an “accurate” estimate
>Why is that such a difficult concept for you to grasp?
it’s unlogical and just doesn’t make sense.
>You have been rejecting it for months.
I have been disproving it for months. You have been ignoring those
disproofs for months. Noone ever questioned or argued about
these disproofs.
>AVanarts – at 10:42
>This was a fun thread before it turned into a flame war. :(
not a flame war. Just arguing. Goto usenet if you want to
see real flame wars ;-)
>Tom DVM – at 10:43
>anonymous. Your estimate was intriguing. We live in a world
>of uncertainties at the moment. That may be the best we can do.
>I believe that we have covered the issues as completely as
>possible in the last three months
but we don’t yet agree
>and now it seems we are going over ploughed fields not that thats
>a problem and I think that conclusions reached here have been
>quite accurate over the time period and more accurate then most
>of the supposed experts.
which conclusions do you mean ?
>SoCal – at 10:49
>FACT A: Seasonal flu is transmitted by coughing and the
>resultant hand-to-hand-to mouth/nose/eyes route.
>FACT B: Flu transmission by coughing defines “easily”
>transmissible flu.
>FACT C: WHO says that coughing was the likely route for this
>H5N1 transmission.
>So, If A = coughing spreads flu, B = easily transmissible flu
>and C = H5N1 flu, this is what we know: A=B and A=C.
>What we can conclude, then, is B=C. Easy transmissible flu = H5N1 flu.
>Help me out: I seem to remember this principle from Algebra I in
>high school and/or Logic 101 in college. Did everyone at WHO cut
>class that day?
>DemFromCT – at 10:50
>> I think that conclusions reached here have been quite accurate
>> over the time period…
>One example is Flu Wiki and the other flu blogs and BBs picking
>up on H2H well before WHO was ready to say so. We went rather
>quickly from no comment to, well, it is common ehough and it is
>happened before.
>DemFromCT – at 10:53
>AVanarts – at 10:42
>My apologies. I should know better. I get torqued at seeing the
>same argument month after month by the same people.
there is something new here. The reference to 1976 , the CDC-panels,
the committee, the Neustadt+Fineberg+May - analysis.
Noone commented on this yet.
>DemFromCT – at 10:55
>SoCal – at 10:49
>That’s the worry, but data doesn’t support that. No one outside
>the cluster is coming down with it. it is transmissible, but not
>easily transmissible.
>AVanarts – at 11:26
>Dem, that comment wasn’t aimed at you, but at the general direction
>that this thread had taken.
don’t end your posts with a double slash. screws up the formatting. ;-)
anon,
you are running around asking for data that doesn’t really exist. We are dealing with far too many unpredictable and unknown items here. There are no hostorical statisics (not history) that we can use either. The scenario is actually extremely fuzzy in terms of predictablity.
What we know today is that this virus kills and kills very efficiently at that, once it infects a host. We do not even know if the virus will ever develop the capability of infecting easily and uniformly across the human population. There are not enough knowledge around to even make valid guesses about its future capabilities. It continues to surprise us. Even if all available data had been in the public domain I assume we wouldn’t have had much more success in making predictions about its future. I believe this is because it is a biological entity, and we do not know enough about how they evolve to make such predictions.
What we can say on the other hand is that if so and so happens, then we would expect to see the following, etc. In my book that is guesswork, not valid predictions. These guesses are useful for contingency planning, but they do not give me a prediction that I would put my name under. They would be based on a lot of preconditions, most of them unstated, like how much Tamiflu is available, the time to manufacture vaccines, population mobility, population density, the effectiveness of the precaution people take, the length of the pandemic, general availability of food, drugs, and other goods, etc., etc. Basically far too many datapoints to make them useful for anything. They remain guesses and speculations.
When experts answers enquettes about a subject they will most probably tend to answer based on personal outlook and experience. If they on the other hand were asked to write a formal paper on the same subject the answer would be completely different. The data would be backed up by sources and reasoning. The methods they employed to get to their answer would be described etc. Repeatability of the procedure is the important factor. An enquette is nowhere near that. To use data collected by enquettes is a bit like trying to predict the stock market based on registerred stock transactions - very, very difficult ;-).
thread closed for length.
DemFromCT, I am in complete agreement that all points of view should be welcomed. However, a discussion conducted solely for the purpose of being argumentative (not you) seems pointless. I’m probably missing the entire point of the exchange (I can be a little dim sometimes!).
>Paralegal – at 11:32
>Is this thread serving any useful purpose at this point?
the purpose is to get experts to give probability for a pandemic
and expectation values for the number of deaths.
And to discuss whether it’s reasonable to ask them for
estimates or to form panels to give these estimates
as was done in 1976 with the swineflu-pandemic threat.
>DemFromCT – at 11:40
>> You will have to ban me if you think there is reason.
>You have not given me reason, though I suspect it has happened
>to you before elsewhere.
… the thread at curevent was thrown to dungeon although
it had stayed within the site-constitution as the moderator
had admitted.
>Look, we are all on the same page about wanting data,
>but if it is not there, it is not there.
And if it is there, then it is there ;-)
I’m repeating myself, but the data is there in books and medical papers
in libraries and internet.
What particular data do you have in mind ? Sorry to repeat myself
again, but what hypothetical data , if it existed, would make
you change your mind ?
>You have tried to obtain it. If you had it, you’d post it.
>And obviously, it is not a universally accepted truth that
>it is important to get experts to give estimates.
again, it is generally accepted in other branches of science
and economics and betting markets. It was the conclusion
in the NFM analysis after the swine-flu-affair in 1976.
Apparantly it was accepted truth in 1976 and even more
in its aftermath.
>Being expert in a certain field does not make you especially
>qualified to give accurate estimates in the sense that you mean.
I’m wondering what sense you mean, that I mean.
I never used the attribut “accurate”. What’s the purpose
of accurate ? “about 30%” is almost as good as “9*pi” or such.
Since people rarely give accurate estimates apparantly
you imply here that the whole thing is uncommon and useless.
>That is one reason why you do not have what you are asking for.
I think, it’s just a temporary stream of style, which makes
it nonfashionable in 2006 to give estimates.
>It is not a conspiracy to withhold information.
proof it ! I think there is reason to believe that some scientists
did receive directives to not give their estimates estimates to public.
>I have discussed this with risk managers tasked with telling
>their employers the risk of a pandemic. They all want the answer
>we do not have. They are as frustrated as you are.
… and they are all wrong in that they expect such an estimate
could be useful ? Isn’t it more reasonable to assume that scientists
have these estimates but keep them secret ?
You know, that sometimes scientists do give their estimates
in private talks but not in public. This has been mentioned before
and is documented. People here are ignoring it.
>The rest of us do not need a number to proceed.
you can’t speak for the rest. And just wait how many will require these
numbers when the thread is finished. And you yourself did acknowledge
earlier here that getting these estimates would be useful.
“we should push gs” or such were your words…
>I will politely and respectfully wait for your response.
no problem with your politeness. That’s all perfectly OK.
I hope you have no problem with mine.
Only that I disagree.
>DemFromCT – at 11:43
>Paralegal, our unnamed friend is reflecting frustration
>that is shared by the ‘numbers’ people, as I mentioned
>in my post above. I am sympathetic. I do think it’s important
>to understand and have that POV reflected on the wiki.
>In fact, I would love to have anonymous or anyone else get
>that elsewhere and bring it back here if it exists.
>It is not to be found here.
we must ask the experts. We must ask the CDC to form the panels.
We must write letters to the politicians as with the
withholding of sequences and patient-data.
It’s even more important that these estimates are released IMO.
>DemFromCT – at 11:46
>BTW, anyone interested should go here. These are the best
>numbers we have, albeit a tad dated.
see also
here
>><<