Discussion continued from here
Grace RN – at 07:01
To the Thai/Indonesians-Where is the pig/cat/dog testing? We KNOW it’s endemic in birds, look elsewhere-think out of the box!! Ask the FAO for help!
I thought in 1918 they found that pigs were carriers. It’s so frustating that the “experts” are not looking in other places. Unless they are and they are not telling us. Could you imagine if they now need to slaughter pigs, or cats? They might no do it.
They are looking at pigs. Its just that samples are hard to get without the co-operation of governments.
There had been rumours of avian samples being taken out of countries to be sequenced. It would be hard to imagine taking pig samples serreptitiously!
“Its just that samples are hard to get without the co-operation of governments.”
It’s also difficult to get samples without the cooperation of the pig.
Hillbilly Bill – at 09:22
and the owner of the pig.
ANON-YYZ – at 09:26
It’s hard enough to explain bird flu and get the population to cooperate. It’s harder to explain why pig has anything to do with bird flu.
ANON - YYZ One way to explain it might be that at the moment many mammalian species including domestic animals such as pigs and small mammals such as cats, big and small and dogs act as intermediary hosts for H5N1…
…These animals represent atypical infections (H5N1 in a new host it is unacclimatized to). There function, at the moment, is to present a template for further mutation and evolution for H5N1…
…it also should be said that there is relatively strong suspicions of one unknown mammalian host that may be key to further adaption…the host may be a rat, mouse, bat, shoreline mammal etc.
It is very likely that H5N1 may fully acclimatize into one of these intermediary hosts before it fully acclimatized to humans and therefore…
…the closer eye that we can keep on population patterns and deaths in these other animals, the better as they will be our ‘Early Warning System’…if we are observant enough to notice.
I know from experience that it is easier to write off dead and dying chickens as opposed to a sick pig. To expect a family that is borderline starvation to give up that much food is unrealistic. I don’t see anyway to get accurate data from the field in many situations.
Hillbilly Bill – at 09:40
I was thinking along the same lines. If you start collecting pig samples, the reaction would be ‘not over my dead body’. The suspicion is if you don’t like the test results, are you now going to start culling pigs? This is a tough one.
As for other mamamals, where do you find the money to do that work?
anon_22, thank you for the additional information about Tamiflu availability and dosing on the previous page of this thread. Your continued contributions of hard-core, useful information is much appreciated.
Hillbilly Bill. Thanks. I had another point to make that slipped my mind…’brain cramp’…that you reminded me of.
Some of these animal populations are essential to our existence on the earth. Cats and dogs were domesticated to assist with rat populations etc. Farm animals were domesticated to provide an easy source of food.
We shouldn’t underestimate that fact that H5N1 is evolving in a many-front war and if it is successful in any one of these other species, world food shortages and cascading effects could result…
…there is nothing we could do to underestimate the consequences of this virus!!
Tom DVM – at 09:46
“H5N1 is evolving in a many-front war and if it is successful in any one of these other species, world food shortages and cascading effects could result…”
That point should be explained to developing countries with limited resources and therefore only willing and barely able to fight one battle at a time.
ANON -YYZ.
Most developing countries have food production centralized in the backyard.
The developed world has food production centralized on ‘factory farms’ of every increasing size and decreasing numbers. In the western world we have lost the ability to produce our own food (In 1918 97% of world populations lived on the farm and were using techniques passed down over thousands of years).
It seems that full acclimatization to pigs etc. may have a far greater effect on us then them.
Tom DVM – at 09:46
I also now see FAO is more important than the WHO, because FAO works at the upstream. I wish the press realizes this, so FAO get more funding to do the jobs.
The notion ‘World Food Supply being affected by H5N1’ needs to be in the public subconscious.
Tom DVM – at 09:57
I had failed to follow the thought process through to the logical conclusion. It seems there is more than one way to die from H5N1. This is a truly scary thought.
Hillbilly Bill
Thanks for the prompt. I’m sorry if I am scaring people. I just think H5N1 is being grossly under-estimated…it has a broad spectrum of potential consequences for the human race…few of which have been really considered…
…and there are enough other things going on (middle east war) to allow those in authority to go to sleep again, probably for the last time before it hits…in my opinion of course with hopes I am completely wrong…and would like nothing better than to ‘eat crowe’ on flu wiki.
ANONYYZ I agree. I guess from my point of view and experience…it depends on how efficiently the money is spent…and 5–10 million dollars spent on a TV facility to send out ‘flu-casts’ is a good example of an agency with to much money on their hands.
sometimes too much money in these agencies is worse for the population than too little!!
The end result is often less work done less efficiently than more.
In the hands of the right person, however, a lot can be done. This hasn’t happened often in the history of science, however.
Reading your discussion about possible carriers and intermediate hosts brought to my mind the fly (likely common in all backyard farm settings).
I went to Yahoo and did a search on “fly” and “disease.” This is one of the articles which popped up. Link
I wonder if anyone has tested flies as carriers of H5N1? They’ve likely been on lots of infected chicken poop.
Just a thought. I wasn’t sure which thread to put it on.
Hi Michelle in OK. Regarding your comment on flies…the influenza virus does not live very long once it is outside its host…and infection with influenza is dose related (fly can’t carry a large infecting dose)…but it will play a role in transferance, just probably not a huge role.
You brought up manure so I would like to make a few comments. I think this is a ‘red herring’. Anyone knows that manure heats in a short time period after it is put in any sort of heap or pile…and the temperatures created would almost be hot enough to cook on…so to speak. No virus would survive these temperatures…
…so like flies, manure may play a role for workers who work in proximity to chickens on the farm…
…it is very unlikely that anyone would catch the virus from manure stored for as little as two days.
Thanks Tom DVM. I figured a thread with a vet was a good place to bring up a question like this. My dad was in the dairy business for years.
ANON-YYZ – at 09:28 --- It’s harder to explain why pig has anything to do with bird flu.
Especially when so many folks remember the swine flu fiasco here in the states!
Tom DVM – at 10:43 “ …the influenza virus does not live very long once it is outside its host…”
I would like to know how long the virus can survive on surfaces such as desks in the workplace, door handles, telephone hand sets, etc.
Also, can the virsu survive in water (i.e. drinking water reservoirs)?
Thanks for any answers.
Power Grid Guy. I don’t have exact answers for this and neither will anyone else even if they pretend that they do…so I can only speak in generalities…hope that is OK.
I would expect that viruses on inanimate objects, under normal conditions, would survive for far less than one hour and probably less than thirty minutes…the problem with this is that if we continue to have doors in public washrooms that have to be opened each time…after we have washed our hands…then a few minutes is enough viability to do all the transmission that H5N1 will require.
Water sources I believe are a ‘red herring’ also because infection with any bug including influenza is dose related…
…just because the virus may survive for relatively extended periods in water, does not mean the influenza can reproduce and without reproducing, the concentration in water would not be high enough to do anything…other than ensuring that complete eradication would be difficult…there would be no effects on the population…
…which brings us back to where we began…the only real threat of transmission is from live animals, of various types, that we may come into direct contact with…and who can distribute large enough concentrations of pathogen to make us sick…
…hope that helps.
Tom DVM – at 11:10
Yes that helps quite a lot, thanks!
Here is a note I made concerning H5N1 survival in the environment. I forget the exact sources, but I am pretty sure one was a WHO document.
35 days at 39.2 degrees F in fecal matter
6 days at 98.6 degrees F in fecal matter
30 days at 32 degrees f in water
4 days at 71.6 degrees F in water
I will try to find my sources for this data
Okieman – at 11:17
I remember those same figures and I thought it was posted on the wiki side.
Okieman. Thanks.
The one I would be interested in knowing the answer for would be how long will influenza virus survive in animals (chickens) ‘flash-frozen’ post slaughter.
I assume it is indefinitely but have not seen any data on it. That would provide high enough concentrations in food handlers and those who eat raw meat to be significant.
Tom DVM: I remember Okieman’s figures as being correct, and also you are correct in regards to the virus surviving indefinitely in ice. I saw data on it somewhere.
Below is a link to what I think is the most recent update on this issue (H5N1 in water and fecal material). The numbers I quoted were from an earlier WHO source (2004), this should be much more accurate, but they raise a number of questions that they say needs additional data and research to answer.
http://www.who.int/water_sanitation_health/emerging/h5n1background.pdf
Medical Maven. Thanks.
These are valuable figures to know…although we don’t know the methods by which they were attained.
I have been frustrated for years by the inability of laboratory findings to be translated in the field…so this is not new to me…so I will give one example of how theoretical findings may not be relevant even though correct.
Manure and specifically chicken manure with its high nitrogen content provides the perfect material for composting…composting requires heating…and manure put in a pile will start composting ‘heating’ very quickly…
…so it will last 35 and 6 days respectively but most manure including manure stored in piles in the winter would exceed both these temperatures by a lot…
…so the bottom line is how long will the virus live if subjected to normal methods of storage on the farms in question.
Tom DVM, MM and Okieman
Thanks to all for your helpful links and reference info. The reason for my question about the time frame the virus can live on surfaces had to do with protecting employees from contracting the virus in the work environment. Your answers certainly help put it in context … although there is obvious ambiguity. :-)
Thanks!
Okieman’s link reconfirms my fears for the Fall hunting season (assuming h2h H5N1 doesn’t arrive by plane first). The Prince Edward Island incident has decided me against waterfowl hunting. But pheasant hunting may be dicey, too. The playa lakes around here harbor high concentrations of waterfowl during the Fall. And with the drought that we now have in the Plains area those same lakes will probably be the primary water source for the pheasant populations. I have seen that they have used them as a water source in the past.
Tom DVM:
Thanks for pushing the envelope on the domestic animals. It was time to hear it and it works better coming from a vet. I find the idea of infected cats disturbing. Cat people let their pets cuddle up around their neck, they stay in the house more on average than dogs. Children tend to chase and cuddle them. When outside they run for their cousins while dogs go through more of a meet and greet. Every neighborhood deals with stray or wild cats after owners move or kittens are birthed. Would you think certain breeds of cats or dogs would infect more easily or would they all be the same?
I mention this because this morning I watched my neighbors cat leap ten feet in the air and bring down a cardinal. Even when I protested that cat dragged that bird back into the bushes to munch it. Cats and birds are like moths to a flame.
It seems that the recent confirmed human cases in Indonesia and Thailand have unusally high CFR. Either it is higher CFR or there is under reporting - only critical cases reported. Any one knows?
I think that all along, there have been many unreported ilnesses and death from H5N1; unreported for a myriad of reason….
ASIA BRACING (I was thinking about title for a new thread, but let’s see where this takes us)
1. Indonesia rushing human bird flu vaccine ready by November 2006
2. Thailand to build negative pressure rooms for 100 hospitals, now quarantining hundreds
3. Hongkong seeking public debate about home quarantine and neighborhood depots, paper rush published
Are they anticipating this to get ugly this fall, before November?
This feels like sitting on an airplane with defective landing gear circling the airport waiting for the fuel to burn out so that we could crash land.
ANON-YYZ – at 10:57
As for myself, yes, I expect panflu to start this fall/winter. And I hope that I am sooo very wrong….
before November? Maybe. Certainly some red flags are up faster than I expected. I think things are very much out of control in Asia.
libbyalex at 11:19: Yes, sort of a frenzy going on. And the Fall migration mixing and colder temperatures have not even arrived yet. I can’t quite put my finger on it, why this has me more disturbed than “Karo”. Maybe I have subconsciously calculated the odds of how many times we can go this route and still not get burned. That and the scientific data and governmental moves that have come to light recently.
I wish someone could put Niman’s commentary that I posted today, in laymens terms so I could understand. He has lots of “cause for concern”…which really drives me crazy!!! He explains it, but I can’t understand what he’s saying!!!
Commonground – at 11:45
With sequences released, he’s supposed to have clear answers within a week. Just wait a few more days. You should have your straight answers.
Thank you ANON-YYZ.
“Of the 56 cases confirmed to date in Indonesia, 44 have been fatal.”
I pulled that sentence from the WHO website AI update today. The fatality rate is troubling. Most of the individuals I work with, including myself, have been assuming (hoping) that the fatality rate would lower over time. If this is not to be the case, do we not have an ethical obligation to adjust our reccomended prepping to a minimum of 3 months? Vs the standard recomended 2 wks.
enza – at 13:48
me thinks there’s lots of unreported…and undetected, especially in the last two weeks.
So that would lower the fatality rate then? ( I’m hoping)
ANON-YYZ – at 13:50 WRITES
enza – at 13:48 me thinks there’s lots of unreported…and undetected, especially in the last two weeks.
SCW AZ Kind of a double edged sword. The more that are unreported, the lower the FR. The more that means that, well, it’s out there even more than we know. . . Ahhhhhhhhhhh P.S. I’m above 3 months. . .
enza – at 13:55
Hope so too, but hard to figure out. It will have to go down a lot to be non-threatening.
The higher the number of infected cases, the greater the opportunity for the virus to mutate, not to say it only mutates inside a human.
The more important number is H2H tramissibility or R0. The chances of discovering the right combination is increasing with more outbreaks.
If (a big if) the Indonesian authorities has a good grasp of the situation, then their actions, not their words, betray what they think.
that’s okay, commonground, experienced expert scientists have difficulty understanding Nimans’ stuff. It’s not you. In anything, checking the credibility and credentials of source is important. Posting on the internet does not an expert make, in any field.
Anon YYZ:
I agree with you to watch what they do, not what they say. I try not to delve into conspiracy theories but heck the best movies are based on them. Anyway, remember the money given to Haliburton for detention centers? Maybe that’s the US version of emergency isolation rooms—and if true-TPTB have known for over a year now what was flying our way. I for one don’t find this idea comforting. Any discussion?
Leo7 – at 14:13
“remember the money given to Haliburton for detention centers?”
Sorry, what was that for?
I’d rather be DOA then end up in one of Dick’s “detention centers’…
anonymous @ 14:12 - Thanks! :-)
ANON-YYZ – at 14:07
enza – at 13:55
Just to add. The bigger threat now is undetection. Recent Thai and Indonesian deaths can be attributed to failed test or late detection.
Anon-YYZ:
Millions to Haliburton for detention centers as stated in the super duper Patriot Act 2. They declined to describe them any other way. Theories were-for illegeal immigrants or potential terrorists. But the expenditure didn’t make much sense in light of open borders. It does make sense for emergency isolation wards, at least to me. Read here: http://tinyurl.com/db9jj
“Of the 56 cases confirmed to date in Indonesia, 44 have been fatal.” I pulled that sentence from the WHO website AI update today. The fatality rate is troubling. Most of the individuals I work with, including myself, have been assuming (hoping) that the fatality rate would lower over time. If this is not to be the case, do we not have an ethical obligation to adjust our reccomended prepping to a minimum of 3 months? Vs the standard recomended 2 wks
In private FEMA is telling emergency workers just that.
3 months MINIMUM to survive one wave without assistance.
This was communicated to us in a meeting with the Emergency Management Agency Director at a mandatory Weapons of Mass Destruction class we all had to take.
Part of that class was a discussion about avian flu, where the comment was made we better ALL have a personal cache of 3 months food/water/medicine/sanitation and get it together ASAP.
The two weeks at ready.gov is really a dis-service to the public.
Leo7 – at 14:25
Thanks. Read it. Notice “emergency management”, not “law enforcement” in last sentence:
“it builds on our extremely strong track record in the arena of emergency management support.”
If things get really bad, it make sense to have at least a 2 tiered quarantine camp - the infected and the families. The sick - that’s obvious. The family - who will be shunned by the community. Otherwise, you have to quarantine an entire city at a time.
Hongkong just started opening the public discussion on home quarantine with neighborhood drop off depots for supplies to the sick and suspected. The rest of society supposed to continue functioning.
>>In private FEMA is telling emergency workers just that.
Enza, your quote:
3 months MINIMUM to survive one wave without assistance.
This was communicated to us in a meeting with the Emergency Management Agency Director at a mandatory Weapons of Mass Destruction class we all had to take.
Part of that class was a discussion about avian flu, where the comment was made we better ALL have a personal cache of 3 months food/water/medicine/sanitation and get it together ASAP.
The two weeks at ready.gov is really a dis-service to the public.<<
Enza, is this from your personal experience or is this from another list? I’m not criticizing, just curious… if you’re the source, that’s some powerful validation to use with my spouse.
BGuano:
Has FEMA built rebuilt or is it about to be eulogized?
Anon-YYZ: HK as a society functions differently than America, plus they had a dry run with SARS. I see Monotreme’s triage by city and the camps used to house the one’s who break through the lines. Or set up in cities beside hospitals to augment isolation beds. Again, as HCW’s learn more about virus and if not given appropriate PPE for case fatality rate, I don’t see them being anything more than temporary morgues.
BirdGuano – at 14:34
re: “Part of that class was a discussion about avian flu, where the comment was made we better ALL have a personal cache of 3 months food/water/medicine/sanitation and get it together ASAP.”
did they elaborate why the asap part?
BirdGuano – at 14:34
I hope I am not quoting you out of context:
“at a mandatory Weapons of Mass Destruction class … was a discussion about avian flu”
Why is avian flu part of the class of WMD? If you can’t answer, I understand, and we will have to draw our own conclusions.
BirdGuano – at 14:34
If you look at the Los Alamos computer simulation. The pandemic would be peaking at 3 months, and burning out at six. Granted that that is a national exposure. Local waves would be of shorter duration.
Since it can be spread without symptoms do you really want to go out and resuppy when it’s peaking.
I’m prepping for six months (not there yet), and then I’ll probably move on to 1 maybe even 2 years prep. (since I don’t expect the stores to have anything to prepare for the 2nd and 3rd waves after the first has passed).
Just some food for thought here. Last night it was reported on the national news that the Chinese government has ordered its local officials to kill all dogs on all farms and homes. TPTB clammed that it was to stop the spread of rabies. It seamed suspicious to me because killing dogs only is not the most effective method to control rabies.
Just a thought.
lurkerMartha – at 15:17
There were extensive discussions a few days ago in the news thread.
I think it’s just rabies. For more, please check the last few days.
I got my last few online orders placed last night.
I simply cannot shake the feeling that time is growing short, and BG’s postings in this thread just make me all the more certain that I should stop trying to shake the feeling and pay attention to trying to figure out if there’s anything else I should be doing.
I too would like to know what H5N1 is doing in a discussion of WMD - but if nobody says otherwise, I suspect I can figure out why it was there. I don’t like the implications, but I can see what they are.
The only other thing I knew to do hit me upside the head this week, but had more to do with the Alaskan oil pipeline than H5N1 - we traded our Camry in on a Toyota Prius hybrid - 50–60 mpg. If H5N1 doesn’t go pandemic, we’ll be glad we did. If it does, hopefully sooner or later it will be possible to buy gasoline after it’s safe to come out of the house.
When the last of my orders come in next week, we’ll be solidly set with food for three for a minimum of a year, three months of bottled water+an Aquarain, 10 months of TP. The dogs are good to go for a year, still need about 50 pounds of cat food. One last order I just realized I have to place - heartworm and flea medicine for the dogs. It’s always something. Makes me wonder what else I’m forgetting.
It may just be me, but having spent some time away from the wiki, I find my anxiety has dropped a lot. I keep in touch and check in a few times a day, but Im not as glued to it as I was before.
Anyone else feel this way?
If you look at the Los Alamos computer simulation. The pandemic would be peaking at 3 months, and burning out at six. Granted that that is a national exposure. Local waves would be of shorter duration.
Since it can be spread without symptoms do you really want to go out and resuppy when it’s peaking.
I’m prepping for six months (not there yet), and then I’ll probably move on to 1 maybe even 2 years prep. (since I don’t expect the stores to have anything to prepare for the 2nd and 3rd waves after the first has passed) ////// Personally I’m prepared for 18 months of full SIP with a goal of 24 months.
I have the resources.
Not the 3 months that was suggested in class, but that WAS an eye opener to a lot of people there.
Virus discussion was part of the WMD class, so avian flu came up as a module.
No he wouldn’t talk about why to prep asap, just DO IT and DO IT NOW and he can’t talk about it.
Specific mention of not enough TamiFlu and no hope of vaccine for a MINIMUM of 6 months was discussed.
US Fire Academy was stuck under FEMA, so for now we are stuck with them.
Clawdia with all the world events now is definitely NOT a time to be complacent about preparation.
BirdGuano,
Who taught the class?
BirdGuano - WHEN exactly was the class held that you attended, please?
In regards to BirdGuano’s interesting comments, if one of us where to get some info from a gov’t, law enforcement, or business contact that was of a shall we say “sensitive” nature (strictly related to BF, or course), what happens if we post it? If we frame it as a “rumour” does that make a difference? Personally, I would never want to compromise anyone who did me the favor of tipping me off yet at the same time what is our responsibility to share information? Also, if someone chooses to post something anonymously, does the wiki have any protocols in place to protect the whistleblower?
banshee,
People post anonymously all the time. Usually if you make a vague attribution, that will be enough to protect your source. We use Chatham House Rule here all the time.
There were pictures in the news of the chinese clubbing stray dog to death in the streets. I believe that a lot of people have died of rabies in China. Not at all to do with Avian Flu, for those concerned in earlier posts. They simply haven’t controled the stray dog population, and they are now reacting, the dogs haven’t been vaccinated.
Melanie – at 17:19 , thanks.
Regarding bird guano’s comments about being told to prep for at least 3 months at a bare minimu, I’d like to point out that I read the National Governor’s association Primer (located on the Wiki home page) and they said to expect 8 to 12 weeks of disruption. I was wondering about that as previously I had been hearing 6 weeks. They weren’t saying to prep for that long, I’m just pointing it out.
thanks Average Concerned Mom @ 18:11. I’ve never heard of the National Governor’s association.
BirdGuano – at 16:08
That would make sence. Avian Flu would in effect be like setting off many WMD’s in many places all at the same time. Mother Nature can be far more cruel than man and can do it in such a way that we never see it coming.
Northstar at 14:45 — I pasted it directly from the WHO site, It was part of an AI update dated today 8/9
Thanks everyone for your input I am going to revise all our plans and public awareness/education material to say 3 months. Someone has to take a stand against this ‘2 week’ nonsense. If the S does not HTF they can give to food to food banks. I am thinking I want to err on the side of saving lives
enza – at 22:58
In the pandemic plan I put together (for a small non-profit) I used the 3 month time frame. It was approved by the board week before last, so at least it made sense to them.
Class was held about a month ago.
Instructor was from the Public Health Department.
I’ll leave it at that as I don’t want to get too specific on details.
Banshee: In regards to BirdGuano’s interesting comments, if one of us where to get some info from a gov’t, law enforcement, or business contact that was of a shall we say “sensitive” nature (strictly related to BF, or course), what happens if we post it? If we frame it as a “rumour” does that make a difference? Personally, I would never want to compromise anyone who did me the favor of tipping me off yet at the same time what is our responsibility to share information? Also, if someone chooses to post something anonymously, does the wiki have any protocols in place to protect the whistleblower? ////
Keep it general and not specific as to time and location. Use chained proxy servers, IP addresses are logged by the wiki Nobody is whistleblowing, it was relaying the contents of a general conversation
Also forgot to add the discussion was extra-curricular and therefore not part of the non-disclosure rules for the class.
I think some of the ‘2 weeks’ plan is because a mad rush on supplies would ensure there just wouldn’t be enough - most supermarkets do not hold sufficient to feed their surrounding population for more than a few days.
Many of our local sites are now saying ‘2 weeks for when you are personally ill, up to 3 months if you want to maintain isolation or to avoid supply shortages as the illness progresses throughout the population’. People seem to accept that more readily.
I have gone for the 3 months minimum - and rapidly running out of storage space!
AnnieB — Can I ask what do you mean by “local sites”?
Average Concerned Mum at 06:37, I am refering to our websites offering ‘advice’ to locals or media sites covering developments and interviewing local health or emergency experts - here in NZ.
How are we all feeling in light of the news over the past few days? Me? as long as wikiswan’s head is still above water I’ll just keep prepping away. Also, I’m now revising all materials I prepare to say a minimum of 3 months worth of food and water; I sleep better at night (that ‘2 week scenario’ was really bothering me).
That was me, temporary computer.
Melanie at 17:59 We use the Chatham House rules. That’s cool but I seriously doubt the Patriot Act would follow such a thing. If TPTB felt so inclined, they could exert some pressure on this site, or just hack it, to find out the address of the poster. My advice, actually my PLEA, to anyone who may be in a position to know something is to go to your local internet cafe or library and post it as anonymous.
Cache Cow – at 16:06 It may just be me, but having spent some time away from the wiki, I find my anxiety has dropped a lot. I keep in touch and check in a few times a day, but Im not as glued to it as I was before. Anyone else feel this way?
Kinda, sorta. The theme that “time is growing short” has been echoed on many, many threads these days. It has me wondering if perhaps we aren’t feeding each others angst. Lots of people saying, “Nothing solid. Just my gut.” I can tell you that, while I find much helpful here on the wiki, it doesn’t sooth or calm me. I am looking forward to going camping this weekend and taking a break from all technology (but I’ll be testing out some preps while we’re camping!)
BirdGuano – at 02:39: Use chained proxy servers….
Can someone please explain this concept to me. Or point me to a resource so I can read about it? Thanks.
I think the best protection for everyone is to assume that anyone who posts here are doing so within the confines of the laws of whatever country or jurisdiction that they live in, and to offer no encouragement to anyone to break the law.
Other than that, it is also useful to remember that everyone is a free agent, in charge of his or her own decisions, and only he or she is able to tell whether a particular action will bring consequences.
In addition, mods will take action when there are suspicions of illegal activity, such as deleting posts, closing threads or banning posters.
AnnieB – at 02:49 I think some of the ‘2 weeks’ plan is because a mad rush on supplies would ensure there just wouldn’t be enough
As soon as “the machine” figures out that there’s loads of money to be made on selling goods and services to preppers, there will be plenty in the pipeline. That’s assuming, of course, they figure it out BEFORE TSHTF.
Prepping for panflu could bolster the US economy on a major scale. Kind of like the, “Don’t stop traveling, or the terrorists have won,” mantra. Just need the talking heads to embrace it and spin it to its full commercial potential.
Can you imagine a world in which it was a status symbol to be prepping?
Can you imagine a world in which it was a status symbol to be prepping?
Nope. It would mean that you are actually preparing to be a LOSER?
There is a popular (unspoken) myth that successful people never worry about or plan for losing in whatever they do… Boy, are they wrong!
The law gets a little fuzzy with leakers and whistleblowers. There is the argument between the greater good and public policy/law. I would hope that someone who gets a heads up first would side with the greater good and let us know.
anon_22 at 21:16: It takes character (and an independent turn of mind) to logically assess one’s prospects and “to turn on a dime” and to adopt the current culture’s definition of “loser”. We won’t be laughing, but we will be vindicated sometime in the next ten years.
We who are labeled doomsayers, hoarders, chicken littles, etc., (you name it), will be sorrowfully and sadly vindicated. Now whether we or Lucky Louie meet the grim reaper first……. “Fate” gets last laugh, always does.
As a threat assessment. I am begining to understand somewhat the reason that TPTB are not sounding the alarm. We are seeing more and more cases show up and yet the substanted H2H does not appear to be happening indeed limited H2H does not appear to be happening. The host countrys are also declaring that the cases are not H5N1 rather the normal flu. The members of the medical communittee are divided over the threat More and more talking heads are saying Y2K and AI are the same BS. Then in the battle will grow tougher. I am all but convinced that it will happen sooner rather than later and that too many are going to be caught with their knickers around their knees. Tom DVM I so hope we are wrong.
Anon 451. I am afraid that H5N1 is first going to lull us to sleep, make all the required changes at once in Monotreme’s tertiary mammal, pop-up and say surprise, I did it.
I hope we’re wrong to because if would be really embarassing if my timing is off and I am one of the ones caught with my ‘knickers’ around my knees.
There have been alot of comments about people feeling somethings up, but most admit they don’t have a logical basis for those feelings. IMO, if H5N1 is truly under selection in a mammal, a pandemic, probably a severe one, is inevitable (as Tom DVM notes). We don’t know for sure that this is the case, but there is enough circumstantial evidence, which is growing, to fear this outcome. OTOH, we have not had a Karo size cluster since Karo. So objectively, there is no particular reason to be concerned this week. I fully expect many, many more isolated H5N1 cases in countries all over the world before the pandemic begins. Although tragic for those involved, they don’t necessarily bring us any closer to pandemic onset.
What has got me spooked isn’t the recent cases, it’s how TPTB are acting. There’s something different about how they are talking about the possibility of a pandemic. I think they are more concerned than they were. Much more concerned. Maybe it’s because they know something we don’t or maybe it’s because they’ve been reading too much Fluwiki ;-), but I sense a big change in attitude. This is also a gut feeling, supported by the occasional odd statement and odd observation, so it may be my imagination.
But I do share the feeling that something wicked this way comes.
I have recently moved to another company for one main reason. This new company has some plans to stay in business, even if disrupted. We have another location to produce and support our products. They seem to be concerned about some type of event. I did post an email from a very large semiconductor company that stated all equipment suppliers need to be prepared for a pandemic. I talked with our security and they seem to be on alert for something as well. So yes something is up, what know one knows for sure. They seem to be prepared and are very quiet about what they seem to be doing. The semiconductor industry is critical these days and just maybe the government is putting pressure on US companies to be able to survive and to re-build infrastructure.
Monotreme. I have reached the same conclusion about our friends behaviour. Two years ago, I could not believe that anyone could look at the history and the data and come up with the ridiculous statements they were making at the time. In March 2006 when they all started back-pedalling, I could not see any reason for their new found bravado that it wasn’t going to happen.
The evidence has been there since 2003. It was objective…it was clear…it was absolutely conclusive…we were screwed then…we are screwed now. It is only a question of when and how bad.
When you look back we have had significant statements to that effect from Dr’s Webster, Osterholm and Nabarro and many statements that insinuated the same thing from many others (Taunburgher Osterhaus) leaving only a few downplaying things.
Your intuition has been ‘dead on’ and each time you have brought these things up, you have been a few months ahead of the rest of the pack.
So you have a track record which leads to the next question.
How do you see this thing breaking down over the next twelve months?
Gut feelings are really strange things. Like Monotreme, I wonder why there is heightened awareness amongst TPTB or is it that they are finally getting the media to report that they have concerns?
Monotreme at 23.35 - you mention we have not had another Karo size cluster - can I correct that to “we have not had another reported Karo size cluster”. When the indonesian authorities are freely admitting that many suspected cases may go untested (particularly deaths) and we hear more and more about the fear of hospitals in indonesian communities, and the repercussions when ‘victims’ return to their villages, what are the chances of us ever getting a true picture of the extent of infection?
Tonight on the evening news, there was a clip about Jackie Chan making a health advertisement for Asian children warning them to avoid sick or ill chickens. Pretty quick, but it was on during prime newstime. They mentioned how many people had died from it in Asia.
I have had a similar feeling about something ‘big’ and something ‘bad’ happening, ever since midsummer. I have a vague feeling that it’s going to be in the Northwest, and have a big impact.
Since I have been reading about flu, I’ve also noticed that there are a number of other warnings about other exotic illnesses among people and animals that could easily go pandemic — it’s not just flu. And living right here next to the Hayward Fault, it makes sense to have at least a couple of month’s worth of supplies.
I wonder if there is any news about bioweapons that might be loosed upon us? I’ve been watching a political blog about the increased military and servailence(sp?) powers that the current congress is putting into spending bills, and it seems that they want to tighten up security greatly; like something MUCH worse than 9/11 might be on the horizon.
Does anyone know if there are any experts out there that do NOT think h5n1 will be the next pandemic? Or does it seem all are convinced?
Long thread continued here