Continued from here
Tom DVM,
Like everyone else, I’m concerned about the fall and winter, although I’m not sure that’s entirely logical. It’s flu season somewhere on earth almost all year. There seem to be more H5N1 cases in Jan-March, so I expect that will be true again this year. Will the pandemic begin then? I don’t know, but I do plan to have all my preps done by then. And I don’t just mean beans and rice.
I was just browsing through “Influenza News Sites and Resources and came to the one from UK, NEWSNOW. Just posted about 15 minutes ago was a blurb from the Charleston, North Carolina subsidiary of CBS about a report from a business meeting way LAST JANUARY in Davos, Switzerland, where executives thought that the biggest challenge they would face this year was BIRD FLU.
Study: Bird Flu Biggest Current Worry Thursday January 26, 2006 6:29pm DAVOS, Switzerland (AP) - The global threat that most preoccupies the world’s business leaders is the deadly H5N1 bird flu virus, according to a study released Thursday at the World Economic Forum.
Strange that they would put this out now!!
NewsNow is notorious for technical glitches putting “breaking” stuff up where it’s months old.
Hi BG — Yes, but this is important — The Davos conference is like a meeting of all the industrialists and world bankers and politicians (T international PTB) so that they can send each other messages about how to cooperate on world issues and corner their respective markets. Anyhow, here is a link: http://tinyurl.com/gkweh
Somebody above, maybe Monotreme or TOM DVM mentioned that they thought the climate was changing. Well, six months ago they DID recognize it as a problem to worry about. They are thinking it will be this year.
I think TPTB are also worried about a big hit from terrorists. Two members who investigated 9/11 said it is not if we get hit, but when…the same stuff we are hearing about BF. Overall, we are experiencing uncertain times and everyone seems to be getting jumpy. This reminds me of when I was a child and had to learn to hide under my desk at school and cover my head waiting for the world to blow up. The adults talked in whispers (which is always a “heads up” for a child) and then changed the subject when the kids came in the room. We also had our “bomb shelter food” in the basement which was just a huge cabinet filled with canned foods and water. Well, thank God nothing happened and many starving college friends lived off that stash of food years later and I hope something similar will happen to my stash of food.
Yes, and they did note that terrorism was right up there, too. I’m sure that the prepping will pay off one way or another; in any event, it is cheaper to buy food now than in six months or a year, as the prices are only going to go up further with fuel costs. ----
The Davos report has been out and known for a while. But its a good source to quote if you want credibility.
Make sure you read page 9 of their Global Risk 2006 report under “A conflation scenario for H5N1” and page 22, top short and long term risks with the highest severity ranking. Notice how pandemic appears in both short and long term categories.
Wow! Thanks anon_22 - at 07:16 for those recommendations on the Global Risk report. Charts on page 22 were very enlightening. My future “electrical engineer” son, had me save the document to the desktop and open it to make the report run more smoothly.
they consider other risks more important, though
Yes they do. Interesting about the HIV and Hep. Puts everything in the right perspective. I like that.
I have several times brought up the “data, timing, momentum” factor amplifying our nearterm and midterm risks for panflu. But you could apply that same “amplifying factor” to geopolitical threats, terroristic threats, and climatological threats. Modern technology coupled with worldwide demographic trends have fueled all of these threats, including panflu. They are all interconnected phenomena.
We have to think holistically in order to confront our future. And I believe that this site is the perfect brainstorming tool to do just that.
It may be beyond human reckoning to successfully confront our future, but, at least, we are trying, and I do believe that we and our families will have some undetermined advantage.
MM-re: “I do believe that we and our families will have some undetermined advantage”
Very well said, as always.
I think that’s why many if not most of us are here-learning, teaching, banging our heads against the wall sometimes trying to get the word out. We want to give our loved ones an edge,even a tiny one, in an extremely uncertain world.
Thanks anon_22, very informative
wind-blown trash:
This isn’t really a threat assessment but it doesn’t merit its own thread so I thought it would fit here as well as anyplace. I just went outside for a quick break and it appears a storm is about to blow thru. I work in a downtown area and the wind is blowing pretty fiercely. Dust and fine grit were being kicked uup in abundance. Dust in the eyes led to the unpleasant thought of conjunctively transmitted virus. This is not a worry at this time but it just reinforced the idea to me that, no matter how educated we all are, or how much we prepare, we just may not be able to avoid coming into contact with this stuff. I’m very nearly resigned to it although don’t intend to take any silly chances. I just have to hope my age and general health will see me through.
Does anyone know if the dose of virus one gets is important in how sick we get? If we get very low doses, does that allow our immune systems time to create effective countermeasures, or if it is a new virus does it just replicate unchecked until it is a huge problem? (This is a follow-on to 2Beans, and a bit off-topic. Sorry.)
Monotreme at 00:33
This may see far fetched but ever since the mute swans were discovered, it’s like we went mute. Mom Cares on CureEvent started a thread about why she distrusted the USDA and put it on a timeline. The outcome of NJ where market was shut down, beasts culled, and no result. Transition to Michigan with the smuggled meat-raided 3 times and meat not tested, mute swans also in Michigan, dead chickens in a house in Ohio no results posted. I think our unconscious hive mind evaluated all this, combined with the ratched up PTB announcements, and that’s why we’re mute. I wonder if they’ve started taken flu bets in Nevada yet?
The undiscovered mammal…why do you suppose there has been such a lack luster effort to find it? Of all the things I just can’t get over, this is the on the top three worst.
I can’t help asking about your preps that aren’t just rice and beans. Are you going to bug out of the Big Apple? My personal preps include mostly big bottles of Pace Picante sauce and Tostidos, RWFK, and good bourbon.
When I saw a pre=school crocodile of children walking diagonally through the grass in the town park, I did a double take. I guess they had taken a detour to visit with the swans. But goose doo is on the paths as well as the grass, so I thought well, we don’t have a problem yet, they’ll be just fine. I don’t feel as strongly as I once did about the geese and the poo. Perhaps I am getting too familiar and comfortable with the entire subject. I am not working at it, just accumulated a stock of food and water when the mood hit, never much at one time, only when on sale. I see no point in worrying myself until I know for sure there is a risk. So I go about my daily life and log in to keep current with things, but otherwise never think about it.
Goose poo contact = bleach dip before any shoes get near the house.
That’s been my house rule since early summer.
BG_ the bleach dip is a good idea. Ive been trying to get my family to take their shoes off before they come in the house.
I’ve been removing my outdoor shoes at the door since I first learned about Avian flu. Never was thrilled with the stuff. I shudder when I would see people spreading a blanket and eating a picnic at town concerts during the summer evenings. I always sat on the stone embankments or a park bench.The pre-schoolers usually have their morning walk in a crocodile on the sidewalk.
Lily at 18:53 “The pre-schoolers usually have their morning walk in a crocodile on the sidewalk.”
What, my dear lady, is a “crocodile on the sidewalk”? Down in Georgia they have ‘gaters in the park, but hopefully this isn’t the same thing. ;)
Its a file of children. I call it a crocodile, and I think others might call it that. They walk in two rows with a rope linking them together, only in that they hold onto it. If a teacher sees a missing peice in the rope its easy to realize a child has wandered off. I don’t know how pre-schools handle it. I really get a kick out of seeing them in the morning just before 10. Healthy, pink cheeked, and on Halloween dressed in the most charming of costumes.
Does anyone here have any information on the view that the Indonesian virus did mutate more than we are being told?
Dr Chris – at 19:53 “Does anyone here have any information on the view that the Indonesian virus did mutate more than we are being told?”
Do you have any specifics, about this view, I mean? Is this a new development and do you have links? Thanks!
Leo7 – at 15:51 “I wonder if they’ve started taken flu bets in Nevada yet?”
Here’s the link to place a bet, if you’d like to http://tinyurl.com/o7yzh
Leo7,
I watched the USDA presentation. I basically agree with PathForward’s analysis on another thread. It was about reassurance more than anything else. I suspect the scripts for various scenarios have already been written: 1. low path H5N1 - done 2. 2. high path H5N1 in birds - ready to go. 3. H5N1 in isolated case in the US - ready to go. 4. Low to moderate pandemic onset - ready to go. 5. 1918 style pandemic -ready to go. 6. 50% CFR at pandemic onset - classified, eyes only.
The USDA is an arm of the agricultural interests. Their job is to promote American agriculture, period. They have nothing to do with food safety. Neither does the FDA. This gap has often been commented upon.
I don’t know why mammals are not being tested. I’m pretty sure a number of the flu experts understand that this should be done.
I no longer live in Big Apple. The city I currently live in has certain advantages. But then again, I may be rationalizing. If I decide that the social structure will not hold here, I do have plans to evacuate to a very remote location, but this is not my first choice.
As I have indicated previously, I think where we choose to live is the most important prep of all. I understand that people can’t just pick up and move to the wilderness because a severe pandemic might occur, but in general, I think that cities that are preparing for a pandemic have a better social structure than those that aren’t. Panflu prep is a civic test. If a city fails this test, who would want to live there anyways - pandemic or no pandemic?
Monotreme, pardon the “Southern-ness”, but “Amen to that, Brother!”
How many times in history or fiction have I read the line “…some, either by design or circumstance, were in protected areas…”. Best of luck on your planning and accuracy of research.
I suspect any urban area of 1,000,000 or more in less than 300 square miles will be pretty undesirable WTSHTF. I only hope my “escape plans” can come to fruition before the 3rd of your announcements.
Monotreme, I love reading your posts. Wanted to comment, my sister is an FDA investigator and food safety is on her list of responsibilities at the factory level (they also have to take food tampering reports). She personally spends more time in hospitals and other biologic’s, has a background from FDA Headquarters in Vaccine’s. I remember a story she told me from a couple of years ago where she was “hunting” down a man who was told the fish he was importing was not fit for human consumption, he tried 13 other ports but she’s pretty relentless and tracked him everywhere. Finally the food was not even suitable for pet food and after a further week of shopping for a buyer he sold it overseas. She’s the kind of person you wish the Government had a zillion of, dedicated, capable and tenacious. Amazing. She also has a low threshold for incompetence.
A few years back some studies came out pondering the fact that the idea of “happiness” was historically a fairly recent human construct. If this proves to be a “viral asteroid”, the sooner we dispense with the notion of happinesss, the better. It will have to be survival for survival’s sake. And if you can’t wrap your mind around that, then you won’t make it. “Satisfaction” at having beat the odds each day will have to supplant it.
Here in the industrialized West, the “Dream Machine” is on the verge of running out of gas.
MM, well said and accurate.
Orlandopreppie – at 21:58,
Thanks for the clarification of the FDAs role. The FDA will launch an investigation if they suspect that a particular food has been tampered with or is otherwise unsafe. See Center for Food Safety & Applied Nutrition. In general, I think the FDA is dedicated to doing what it can to protect the public health. However, their budget is insufficient to make much of a dent in guaranteeing the safety of the American food supply.
My comment should have been more specific: There is no agency whose job it is inspect food for safety. For example, only a tiny fraction of the cattle in the US have been inspected for mad cow. It is actually illegal for cattle ranchers to test their own cattle for prions. Fish sold in stores often have very high levels of toxins (mercury, etc.). To my knowledge, most fish are not tested by anyone. Salomnella is very common in chickens. Again, most chickens are not tested for this by anyone.
Many people think this is the USDA or the FDAs job. To my knowledge, it’s not.
Many people think this is the USDA or the FDAs job. To my knowledge, it’s not.
I believe it’s only their job to set the standards and rules. Most testing is done by private contractors, unless there is a specified, focused threat.
Blackbird: Thanks. When I typed the question I almost went searching first, then decided it probably wasn’t on the radar yet. Ok folks if they’re betting on it, it’s real.
Monotreme: I’m glad you got out of NYC. The line about where we choose to live sunk in. You’re right if they’re not planning why am I living here? I will have to evaluate a little more, I do have options. It’s just taking that first step to thinking in the proactive manner, is painful. So in some ways I’m having an adjustment reaction as Melanie would say.
I don’t see or hear about any spending of funds for investigational study into “alternative” means of fighting flu, such as hyperbaric oxygen treatments, IV Ozone, UV etc, etc.
I don’t see augmentation of existing hospital facilities by setting up infectious disease centers for use in any infectious disease. What I am seeing is panic and fear - and stupidity - being spread in the media and by our politicians.
A logical common sense approach needs to be implemented. Education of the public as to what bird flu really is at this point - and what it might become - is almost totally absent. People who are thoroughly educated will approach the subject with understanding and not fear.
We in the US, at one time, were a fearless society. We were able to come together and fight our enemies, whether human, or viral/ bacterial.
When the US population came together as one almost anything was possible. Now we appear to be a sniveling, scared, fragmented societal flock of sheep. We demand security at the loss of our own God-given personal rights and freedoms. I, for one, will not allow the Bush administration to scare me into making the Rumsfeld’s of the world richer than they already are.
Vaccine for an H5N1 pandemic strain?
As for vaccine, I repeat: we do not have a pandemic strain. How can one have an effective vaccine when there is no pandemic strain? H5N1 has not recombined into that pandemic strain yet, therefore the current vaccine being researched won’t work!
Tamiflu doses by the millions?
Scaring the public into self-medicating with tamiflu or any other antiviral will probably lead to tamiflu or antiviral-resistant strains. This is basic clinical science.
Each day I get emails from people who want to know if they should begin tamiflu treatment?
“DON’T!” is my response. Of course, if we don’t use tamiflu, and don’t take whatever vaccine is being touted as the ‘bird flu vaccine’, we won’t make the Bush pharma/vaccine industry rich.
People can do much to prevent infection simply by common sense procedures like washing poultry and eggs with soapy water and washing hands thoroughly before and after poultry preparation.
Also, eating healthy food, taking vitamin and herb supplements and anything that will support their immune system is very important. Obviously.
We also need to remember that the US is not an agricultural society any longer. Most of us live in cities or suburbs. We are not living, as they do in Asia and parts of Europe, in close proximity to the animals they raise and eat.
Also, using common sense such as not handling sick or dying birds will help keep people from contacting bird flu.
I have to laugh when I hear overweight, obese, 2 pack a day cigarette smokers worrying about bird flu.
Most of us need to worry about our lifestyles…and some of these lifestyle choices are more infinitely more frightening than bird flu.
Again, I fear the government response plan to bird flu more than I fear bird flu. I do not want to negate the world risk of a possible pandemic strain emerging, however, fear and panic will not make a pandemic go away. Only common sense protocols will.
Armed with knowledge of the current bird flu as provided by myself and Dr. Henry Niman will help people make intelligent choices.
Together, an educated US population can come together and, with each person doing their part, we can try to prevent or eradicate the current animal bird flu outbreak. Nowhere in our vocabulary in our great Country should be the word “fear” be found. — Patricia Doyle
States Have Their Own Plans For Bird Flu
Some Ready Quarantine Sites While Most Are Preparing For Drug Shortages
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9925755/page/2/
WASHINGTON - States have their own ideas for dealing with an outbreak of bird flu or other super-flu strain - readying possible quarantine sites and talking about closing schools and businesses.
State officials may tell hospitals they may have to evict all but the most critically ill. Several states will ask residents to stay home and take a “snow day” if a pandemic strikes.
The Stakes Are Enormous.
Texas, alone, estimates as many as a quarter-million of its people might die.
These details and more are spelled out in the pandemic preparedness plans that state governments have prepared in recent years. The Bush administration updated the federal blueprint for a pandemic response just this week.
Many states aren’t sure yet how their plan would mesh with what the federal government expects of them. However, they already have concerns about whether state and local governments have the resources to meet the Bush administration’s goals.
For example, the Bush plan calls for states to spend $510 million for anti-flu drugs, which can reduce the severity of the flu.
“The plan is useful, and the planning process is useful, but what isn’t occurring is any analysis to see whether the staffing required to do the plans is actually there,” said Dr. Rex Archer, president of the National Association of County and City Health Officials. “That’s the weakness with all of this. I’m afraid that probably 90 percent of the staffing at the state and local level is not there to carry out the plans.”
The Bush plan does call for $100 million for state preparedness and planning, but Sen. Tom Harkin, D-Iowa, complained that the president’s budget for this fiscal year proposed to cut $120 million from state public health agencies.
Global Threat
Bird flu has killed at least 62 people since it surfaced in 2003, all in Southeast Asia, according to the World Health Organization. Most had contact with sick poultry. But health experts have warned that the virus could mutate into a form that can be easily transmitted between humans and trigger a global pandemic.
States have planned for a potential pandemic for several years, and they’ve taken cues from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the World Health Organization in forming those plans. However, their work has taken on greater urgency in recent months, said Patrick McConnon, executive director of the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists. Several states have submitted new plans to his association in recent weeks. Most plans are labeled as drafts.
In June 2004, 29 of 50 states had plans in place for a potential pandemic. Since then, the remaining states have at least completed drafts of a plan, he said.
Most states plan for shortages of medicine, and they realize they will have to make some tough decisions. Most also have been inexact when saying who would be the first in line to get medicine. For example, Kansas states that it will listen to recommendations made at the national level. Its current priority list starts with hospital and health department staff, as well as their family members. Next in line are emergency medical workers, police officers and firefighters. Last on the list are members of the “general public.”
Georgia says the state’s health director may choose a committee to help decide who would get drugs first. The committee would include health officials as well as experts on ethics. Some protest from the public should be expected, it hints.
“Educating the public on these priority groups will be key,” said the Georgia plan.
The Bush plan says the first to be treated for pandemic flu should be patients admitted to the hospital and the highest-risk outpatients, including pregnant women and people whose immune systems have been compromised, such as cancer patients undergoing chemotherapy, as well as health workers sickened by caring for them. It says the first who should be given medicine to prevent contracting the disease are health workers.
Another key aspect of the state plans is surveillance. North Carolina said that in the case of a novel virus alert, officials should monitor persons traveling from geographic areas where the strain has been isolated, they should monitor poultry and swine workers, and military personnel.
In the event of a pandemic alert, officials should consider monitoring schools and daycare centers as a means of measuring the community’s overall health.
Kansas addresses the issue of quarantines by stating that the governor may choose to utilize snow days as a way to encourage non-emergency workers to stay home.
McConnon said states will adjust their plans once the Bush administration has finalized details on the amount of vaccine and antivirals that would be available.
“I would not be surprised if most of the states pull their plan down as soon as the federal plan comes out, so that they can revise it,” McConnon said. “We know, for example, there will be some new details related to drug distribution. They’ll also need to look at the issue of quarantine and how they’re handling it.”
William Raub, who oversees health emergency preparedness at HHS, said the agency will work with state and local officials in coming months to incorporate the federal government’s advice into their own plans. He described state plans as “uneven” in places, such as when to close schools or to discourage public gatherings.
“Some have addressed it quite thoroughly,” he said. “Others have more work to do.”
Texas’ draft plan, released last week, assumes at least two waves of pandemic influenza will occur. It tells health care officials they may have to consider “non-standard approaches” to meet demand, including:
Dr. Tom Betz, acting state epidemiologist for Texas, said the national plan validated much of the work his state has done over the past three years.
“Our approach just mirrors what’s in the national plan,” Betz said. “To me, what was nice about the national plan was that it was not a sky-is-falling approach. It really stressed the need for vaccine as one our primary tools in fighting any strain of influenza.”
The completion of 50 state plans for a flu pandemic is a top priority of the federal government, because as one top Bush administration official said, a battle against a pandemic will be fought on 5,000 different fronts.
“The federal government can deliver stockpiles of medication and supplies to a city in the U.S. in a matter of hours, but it is distribution at the state and local level that defines victory,” said Health and Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt.
A review of several state plans shows they have taken stock of the potential toll. The projections for some of the worst-case scenarios are ominous. Texas cites the potential for up to 250,000 deaths if 25 percent of the population were infected. Georgia says up to 6,210 people could die. Kansas predicts the potential for up to 2,500 deaths.
Stringent quality control for fisheries industry. Random unannounced testing with strict, immediate, and expensive non-compliance penalties.
The ultimate responsibility for enforcing the Seafood HACCP Regulation rests with FDA. Some inspections performed by State agencies under contract with FDA.
HACCP REGULATION FOR FISH AND FISHERY PRODUCTS
On December 18, 1995, The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) published as a final rule 21 CFR 123, “Procedures for the Safe and Sanitary Processing and Importing of Fish and Fishery Products” that requires processors of fish and fishery products to develop and implement Hazard Analysis Critical Control Point (HACCP) systems for their operations. The regulation became effective December 18, 1997.
The United States Department of Commerce (USDC)/National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) - voluntary seafood HACCP program, including quality and economic fraud (ie, labeling farmed fish as “wild alaska salmon”). Inspection programs.
http://www.fda.gov/foi/warning_letters/g4493d.htm
http://www.oceansalive.org/eat.cfm?subnav=fishpage&group=salmon
anonymous – at 01:28
The United States Department of Commerce (USDC)/National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) - voluntary seafood HACCP program, including quality and economic fraud (ie, labeling farmed fish as “wild alaska salmon”). Inspection programs.
There are many standards and voluntary programs, but little enforcement. I don’t want to go into this into much detail as it is off-topic, but it will be interesting to find out what guarantees will be made with respect to poultry once high path H5N1 is found in the US.
A concerned citizen – at 01:13 --- As liberal as a lot of people on this board are, the FluWiki is not a soapbox for you to spout your personal feelings about the current, or any, political administration.
A concerned citizen, well I’m certainly glad you got that rant out… I was following along until your affiliations caused me to lose faith in your possible sincerity. Regardless it was quite the rant and I do hope you feel better.
Bronco Bill – at 08:45
Thanks BB.
I don’t really understand “A concerned citizens” rant. They seem to be some sort of alternative medicine guru who also invokes Dr. Niman’s name. I suspect they will be selling herbal remedies at some point.
at this point in our involvement with discussion of H5N1, don’t we all kind of rant? they say all stories have been told and anything new is merely in the telling from a new perspective. these days it feels like it’s all been said about H5N1… over and over and over again
Monotreme – at 09:10
It’s not a rant. It is positioning as self described expert. Wouldn’t be surprised if promotional pieces show up here. “Witch Doctors Fortune Tellers Alchemists”
Monotreme – at 09:10 --- Gotta say I got the same feeling. On top of the fact, there is one glaring, quite eronious statement about agriculture. California is still the 4th largest ag exporter in the world, from beef to veggies, to cotton
(not to mention that, until a few years ago, the US was the largest exporter of Naugahyde, until all the Naugas became extinct!)
“Witch Doctors Fortune Tellers Alchemists” --- Coulda sworn we had a thread or two on that ;-)
Weren’t the naugahs cute lil critters? just don’t try to sit on them in hot weather…
If you google part of Concerned Citizen’s post, you will find it on rense. ‘nuff said.
BB and Grace RN re: Naugas, LOL. I think I contributed to their extinction.
Lauralou, you’re right. If it’s on rense, ‘nuff said.
Uh, what is rense?
From Fluwiki: “Suspect News Sites” in Influenza News Sites and Resources
“Rense is a garbage site, prone to conspiracy theory and outrageous stories. It occasionally carries legit stuff, but plays it up way out of proportion.”
Where is gs when we need him!!
Thanks, Lauralou. Good to know.
moeb @ 9:15- I am afraid that we are starting to say a few new things and they are not good, based on today’s news thread. It’s like the tree is falling in the forest, but nobody sees it but us. Just taking advantage of the free therapy here. Send me the bill.
Must go find a happy place.
moeb- I like your style.
There was information in Concerned Citizen’s post, no? Texas may discharge all but the critically ill. Their families will be stunned and unprepared skillwise and lacking in supplies too. The federal plan has a long list of whom to treat for flu but not much on who should receive preventative treatment, ie. HCW should be followed by police, firefighters and utility workers.
Jane – at 10:40
And what will Texas do if/when the families refuse to pick up and/or take care of their hastily-discharged family member?
I think that poor beast from Maine pictured on the Drudge Report this a.m. is a Nauga??? http://tinyurl.com/5x7
(time to take meds now - be kind!!)
Friends, I don’t usually post my gut feelings. I usually analyze it to death :-)
But I think its time to get mentally ready for Wack-A-Mole and not panic on clusters all over the place, and stay calm while the masses start taking this seriously. My hope is this period of Wack-A-Mole is long enough to get the masses to start preparing.
a little tune plays in my head “Pop goes the cluster, they all fall down” of course I’ve noticed not all forum participants enjoy my comments.. of course they can go to (somewhere else) anyway, yep it may be a cluster in Indonesia, yes if it goes pandemic it will kill 2 out of 10 (per a fighter pilot I agree with and the original start of this thread) and yes I think the chances of it becoming pandemic via recombinetics is nil nada.. a bad fantasy… and I think reassortment is nada.. won’t happen (looks for flying kaakaa) that leaves us with mutation. and it’ll do that. but it might also peter out.
ANON-YYZ @ 11:01 You are so right. Will not break training again. Head hung in shame.
Are the CDC Phases: 1, 2, 3, Wack-A-Mole, 4, 5, 6?
Location is important, but economics also curtail peoples finding a safer location for their families. I feel comfortable where I am, for how long only fate will decide. I noticed yesterday that N.J. housing prices have fallen over 16%. A hugh drop if you intend selling. Most likely it will drop further as prices were ridiculous, but the taxes went up with re=evaluation. A person alone renting, can pull up stakes. They usually can find a job elsewhere. With a family the situation becomes far more problematic.
moeb – at 11:04
re: “if it goes pandemic it will kill 2 out of 10…and yes I think the chances of it becoming pandemic via recombinetics is nil nada.. a bad fantasy… and I think reassortment is nada.. won’t happen (looks for flying kaakaa) that leaves us with mutation. and it’ll do that…
I think-correct me if I’m wrong-that the CFR is higher for a panflu derived by mutation than reassortment….which adds to the overall ka ka factor
much much much higher Grace as you know reassortment tests showed a very weak H5N1 strain emerging when that event occurs(smiles) and of course the 2 in 10 who die is derived from a cfr of 50% with an infection rate of only 30% (A Current Threat Assessment)
Moeb. What happens to the other 70%?
Sorry, I should have said why do the other 70% not get sick?
prepperbabe – at 11:10
I think the CDC Phases are now : 1, 2, 3, Wack-A-Mole, Run-Like-*#%&!
Okieman. I went to the short-form page and could not find “*#%&!”.
chuckles.. hey Tom, if I remember correctly you believe that more than 50% even up to 70% could become infected and I concede you are correct. As we discussed… history points to 30%, but who says this thing has to follow historical precedent (shrugs) You are perhaps alluding to collateral deaths which we can speculate the amount of and how they come about, til the cows come home
at the moment my concern about the threat level has subsided, how about you? and do you have a particular take on reassortment?
I mis-typed it Wack-A-Moeb, but corrected it.
Sorry, moeb… just kidding.
But seriously, we will also have the “Moeb’s” popping up telling us not to worry. It’s part of the emotional adjustment. So please don’t beat them up. They are just trying to cope, like you and me.
CDC phases
1,2,3 (sweat at neckline)
4.pop ativan into coffee mug;book extended rental of mountain cabin
5. confirm rental, add valium to mug, skip coffee
6. get the &%$(*_ outta Dodge; make like a banana and split!
the wack-a-mole is the best, tho….
You guys are making me laugh…..that’s a very good thing :-) ka ka factor!!!
the United States Government has set itself on a path to spend billions fighting H5N1. some will argue that it’s fine for that to take place because a pandemic will come sooner or later even if it’s not H5N1. After the CDC’s recent assessment that Bird Flu is less likely to happen because it was found that reassortment did not necessarily lead to a pandemic strain (the exact opposite was shown in those tests done)… I wonder if those who voted for that money are having second thoughts. (I must state I see no indication they are)
this is just a thought for discussion
Hey - I am not a medical type and can’t get my grasp on the concept so can someone explain to me in “BF for dummies mode” - if no one has immunity, how DO only 30 % get it? And if we are hiding in our homes for 3 months till it all passes won’t we get it when we finally emerge - some little residual germ somewhere? ( I know someone is going to give me to a 20 page discussion somewhere on flueikie - was just hoping someone can put it in a 3–4 line cliffnotes version…) :-)
Moeb.
The experts tell us that 30% of the population was infected in 1918 while they got their mortality rates out by approx. 90 million people.
No one in the world will have immunity to this virus so I am asking the experts, instead of asking me to take their statement at face value (they spent all of their credibility capital with me in Jan 2005)…what prevents that other 70% from getting sick…a simple understandable scientific explanation that we can all understand will suffice…
…otherwise my misguided friends should stop shooting their mouths off if they can’t back it up scientifically.
There are three groups here. deaths, chronic sequalae and collateral damage…my prediction was ten million in the USA and one million deaths in Canada directly and from collateral damage.
The chronic sequelae will probably be equal to the number of direct H5N1 deaths…
…but this is just an estimate from my experience with animals in localized epidemics of infectious viral diseases.
and by the way…if they don’t get off the vaccine and antiviral bandwagon and start stockpiling broad spectrum antibiotics, oral electrolyte powders etc. and protect FOOD SUPPLIES…the losses could be far worse.
avoids the “sky is falling” nuts while trying to figure out how to slip a vet question in.
so I have this bird flu guard dog.. ten years old, a boxer mix. she’s got a bad hindquarter and she’s turning white with a bit of difficulty with her mobility…. should I accept natures path and do what needs to be done or is she savable as a bird flu guard dog?
whew! (it’s tough to stay on topic sometimes)
Moeb. Jump in any time…you have knocked off a few in the last two months /:0)
by the way… just so there is no confusion…”my misguided friends” are in the WHO, Health Canada, the Public Health Agency of Canada, the Canadian Food Inspection Agency and the Government of Canada.
Actually, I wish you and gs and Bronco Bill would get together…but I would need some warning to get the towels ready!!
as to that 30% versus the other 70%… speaking strictly about bird flu infection rate. a point worth noting is that people are going to be avoiding contact with people like they… well like they have the plague
Moeb. 11:54. Sounds like a perfect candidate to work for several regulatory agencies I know and love.
you’d make a fair drinking buddy I’m sure….
meanwhile I keep waiting for someone to give amak the short run down on a long question
From Grace RN, 6. get the &%$(*_ outta Dodge; make like a banana and split!
Or make like a tree and leaf?
Moeb, you are right, it’s hard to stay OT :)
Tom DVM, if you want your friends to stop shooting off their mouths, give them this example….
There are three people in a room, one of them is going to die, would they want to be in that room? 30% is great odds for he lottery, not great when it’s life or death.
From Grace RN, 6. get the &%$(*_ outta Dodge; make like a banana and split!
Or make like a tree and leaf?
Moeb, you are right, it’s hard to stay OT :)
Tom DVM, if you want your friends to stop shooting off their mouths, give them this example….
There are three people in a room, one of them is going to die, would they want to be in that room? 30% is great odds for the lottery, not great when it’s life or death.
Moeb. I agree…
…so maybe the ratio should be 70% infected,30% escape or 85% infected 15% escape.
amak. You are exactly right in your question. Supposedly, there were waves of epidemics in the 1920′s with quite high mortalities from the after-effects of H1N1…
…If you have no immunity then given the virus becomes endemic, every person will in the end be infected.
reasons it may only be 30%
historical record people will avoid people the virus may dumb down (I mean viral down) a vaccine will be produced our medical response is better than 1918
and then there’s people like me… I have two days to do three hours of work which I’ll probably put off til 6:30 am, Saturday prior to my 9:30 meeting. other wise you may find me here isolated from the world at large
The bottom line is…if their explanations don’t make sense to you it is because they don’t make sense.
I don’t want anyone to think this can’t be handled with infrastructure protection, N95 masks, gloves, removing infection bottlenecks in public facilities (door handles in washrooms etc) etc.
We cannot hide from this virus…SIP. vaccines and antivirals won’t work.
We can live with this virus through social distancing etc. and then amak we will get sick when the virus naturally attenuates (weakens) which will happen eventually.
ANON-YYZ – at 11:40
You will also see posts from people who work for the government to try to calm us down, some times by changing the subject every 5 minutes, to divert attention. Those discussions usually go no where - they are not supposed to. We are supposed to respond like kids, to forget about the worries.
Watch what they do, not what they say.
yep it’s really hard to tell who the nuts are.. I mean those with nefarious underhanded designs on those who come here.. well except unless they continually refer you to their own private site… (chides myself for beating a dead horse)
ANON-YYZ Thanks I’ve been wondering about that…
…look…what we want is for representatives from these agencies… Dick Thompson (WHO) are you listening…to come on to flu wiki have an open scientific debate…
…we are here to learn…we are and have not given anyone a hard time just for the fun of it…it is not fun…
…for me something else that is really not fun is when I see scientific bull-shit presented by people who should no better…who know it isn’t true but try and pass it off anyway!!
Most of the people on this forum have been labeled a ‘nutcase’ at one time or another. It is however a grossly simplified deflection. In reality, it takes a good deal of courage and sensibility to cut through this uphill battle called preparation. See “Deniers are the Chicken Little”.
as the only one in the neighborhood with a new pit toilet… I qualify as a nut (til water quits running that is)
Tom DVM @ 12:17
what does chronic sequelae mean? thanks :)
Tom DVM – at 12:10 We cannot hide from this virus…SIP. vaccines and antivirals won’t work.
Tom DVM, I think I basically agree with you. I attended a presentation on Pandemic 101 a few months back, and I asked the question about what happens when we emerge from SIP. The answer was that you either get vaccinated or get sick. If the CFR weren’t so high, my preference would be to get sick and be done with it.
However, don’t you think keeping yourself healthy by SIP/social distancing during the peaks improves your odds overall? If you are sick during a peak, your chances of receiving appropriate care is slim. If you are sick during off-peak, they improve somewhat, don’t you think?
lohrewok,
Like a movie “sequel,” sequelae (plural) are problems caused by a disease that come after a patient is “cured.” With H5N1 it appears the sequelae may be chronic, i.e. long lasting, perhaps even permanent.
lohrework. Sorry, you are quite right…I should not have used the term but it does do a very good job of explaining things.
sequelae = sequel…ae…the sequels to the infection.
The sequel of an infection is permanent damage that affects the quality of life after the pandemic or infection…permanent lung, kidney, heart, liver, brain damage etc.
I have observed the sequelae or chronic after-effects of viral infections in Cattle…direct viral damage can knock out enough lung tissue to result in COPD (Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease) or emphysema or chronic bowel disease…etc.
My observations have been in animal models that the number of chronic infections equal the number of deaths.
If you have noticed pictures or video of those who have been released from hospital, you will see what I mean.
Edna I agree completely with you…I just don’t think one in a thousand persons will be able to maintain SIP for any length of time…so you have to have a back-up plan…masks, gloves etc.
As far as vaccines and antivirals go, I just ask everyone to collect the studies that have been done on the effectiveness of both in the much milder seasonal influenza’s…the data is clear in my mind…they flat out don’t work.
I agree with you that strategic SIP for a short period of time is a good thing…I would suggest in the first wave while we see how bad the infrastructure hit is going to be…but no one should expect a vaccine to be waiting at the end…even if there was it would take a vaccine with booster ten days later and then another ten days before you would be protected…and by then, you would have had ample opportunity to be infected before the vaccine could take effect.
these are complex issues…and we deserve a full explanation from those whose wages (and health insurance) our hard earned money pays for!!
So Dick Thompson, when are you coming on flu wiki for a little talk.
anonymous. 12:46.
You explained it far better than I could.
Do you think I could talk you into choosing a name: we could surely use the help!!
Thanks Tom & anonymous. Completely understand the implications of such now. (DH has pulmonary fibrosis).
Had a bit of nervous energy this AM (wonder why?) and did some more prepping.
I’m not an expert about anything. I have always been suspicous of these figures about what percent will become infected and what percent will die, etc.
I am more optimistic about a relatively low infection rate than I am about a low fatality rate. The reason is because in any given year, a low percentage of people actually catch the flu — even among unvaccinated people. Some people are more careful than I am and they wash their hand a lot and don’t rub their eyes/nose and don’t have a kid enrolled at a germ factory. So unless the H5N1 is proven that it will be either more or less transmissable than the garden variety flus (once it goes H2H2H), I can accept estimates that the experts release about infection rates (if they are consistent with recent seasonal flu). I think society today is too different from 1918 to base infection rate projections for today on what went on then.
However, I have not seen anything that convinces me that there will be a reduction in the fatality rate. They can base estimates on history if they want to, but this vaccine is not a historical virus. The statistics that we have about this particular virus are scary. I think that is just wishful thinking that we’ll have a single digit fatality rate. I hope I’m wrong.
I don’t believe anything I hear released from the government anymore. When the Egyptian students disappeared, what was the first thing TPTB felt they had to tell us? “We have no reason to believe they have anything to do with terrorism.” Oh yeah? If 20 Egyptian students come into the country under false pretenses and they’re missing and you don’t know where they are and why, then you also don’t know for a fact that they are not terrorists. I’m supposed to not be concerned just because you told me not to worry? It drives me nuts when they do that. OK end of off-topic rant.
Just finding out what did in my house finches made me realize more fully what a complex problem it all is. A contagious occular problem. Can’t see, can’t eat…dead finches. Until this last October I thought all the old plagues and infectious diseases were past problems, and that modern technology would be so much more effective in controling the spread of anything. Of course there was SARS, but they controlled it. Now I can’t help feeling we won’t be any better off than someone in the 1600′s who had no access to modern technology.I had house finches in my pines for over thirty years, and now not one… I wonder if the Avian flu will stop the terrorism situation, nothing else would.
well there would be less air travel, fewer planes to use for terrorist plots. I don’t know if Iran is stockpiling anti-virals. Is Iraq? what happens when and if pandemic does come and the locals think the U.S. is holding supplies for U.S. troops?
I don’t think Iraq is a terrorist situation (in a certain light) but I see continual chaos with significant further loss of life from bird flu and ethnic fighting. It’s interesting to ponder how much of a back burner some world issues would become.
I don’t put a lot of credence in bird flu being weaponized… although it could happen
would the french give iran vaccine?
Tom DVM – at 12:10
“when the virus naturally attenuates (weakens) which will happen eventually”
Pure conjecture.
backed by a fair bit of historical precedent
Moeb. exactly…the same history that indicates we are not going to be able to avoid H5N1 and the same history that indicates it is likely we will have 2 or 3 pandemics in the next few decades.
I have been wondering whether the Karo mutation originated in Monotreme’s tertiary mammalian host, was around for some time before Karo and now is showing up, from the same unknown source, at great distance from Karo…not a very good sign if that in fact happened.
How fast could they sequence this new strain?
Tom DVM, I think you’ve got exactly the right idea. The sequence will tell us alot about the virus. We will know if it is different from the Karo sequence, where it came from, whether the virus has changed in a significant way and whether it is going H2H. Once again, it is imperative that they sample mammals in the region to see if they match better than the birds. However, I am starting to wonder if the mammals that need to be sampled are in China. There appear to be mulitple introductions of different strains of H5N1 into Thailand and Vietnam directly from China. Indonesia was infected directly from China, which if you look at a map, is a little surprising.
Sequencing is easy and would not take more than 48 hours. What make take more time is preparing cDNA for sequencing. However, they have almost certainly got PCR product they could sequence, so I suspect they already have sequence. Supposedly, the Indonesian government has given the go-ahead to deposit the sequences, so we are just waiting for the CDC to deposit the sequences and for GenBank to process them.
We should not have to wait very long.
Monotreme. Thanks.
I would really like to see some blood samples from pigs!!
Well if the flu fairy is granting wishes I wish this whole thing wasn’t happening. IMHO that’s about as likely as hoping the WHO will do the right thing and not something only politically motivated.
It’s atarting to look to me like this whole thing is coming to a boil. A month ago I’d have given a pandemic this winter somewhere between 1 in 3 and 1 in 2. Now, I’m thinking more like 3 in 4, especially with Osterholm’s interview today.
moeb – at 08:50 backed by a fair bit of historical precedent
As well as established statistical principles such as “regression toward the mean.”
If the mean (as in “average”) behavior of a virus is to infect birds but not humans, and we see a mutation one year in which allows it to infect many humans, regression toward the mean dictates that the next mutation will see the virus behaving more closely to its mean state than its “spike” state.
Unless the interviewer took Osterholm out of contrext with the “imminent” comment, it only confirms my deepest fears, that this fall/winter could be the coldest, darkest ever-and I am not talking about the weather…..
reaches out and catches a chunk of falling sky
anonymous – at 13:35
“I am more optimistic about a relatively low infection rate than I am about a low fatality rate. The reason is because in any given year, a low percentage of people actually catch the flu — even among unvaccinated people. Some people are more careful than I am and they wash their hand a lot and don’t rub their eyes/nose and don’t have a kid enrolled at a germ factory. So unless the H5N1 is proven that it will be either more or less transmissable than the garden variety flus (once it goes H2H2H), I can accept estimates that the experts release about infection rates (if they are consistent with recent seasonal flu). I think society today is too different from 1918 to base infection rate projections for today on what went on then.”
The infection rate will be determined by many factors, but a completely novel subtype with zero herd immunity will have a very high population attack rate. This is because the antigenic variations in seasonal flu is only between different mutated versions of the same subtype, and prior broad immunity to that subtype is still present for most people. With a completely new subtype like H5, those kinds of immunity will not be available to protect people from infection.
Apart from intrinsic qualities of the virus and host immunity, the clinical attack rate also depends on population density and mobility, both of which are far higher than in 1918.
Estimates of 50% attack rate with half of them being symptomatic (ie 25% clinical attack rate) are based mostly on seasonal flu and now recognized as gross underestimates. Even Ferguson, whose data I am discussing on another thread Efficacy Of Social Distancing Measures concedes that 68% is a more likely figure, with half 34% showing symptoms, in a high transmission scenario.
I will save the rest of the discussion on this and related issues for the other thread.
anon_22-I await your evaluation of probable clinical attack rates and CFR. And, your feeling about the Osterholm interview today.
Grace, let’s take this to the other thread.
CFR and Attack Rate for H5N1 in a pandemic scenario ?
Bad, very, very, very BAD.
Long thread closed and continued here.
Opening post from Monotreme copied to new thread.