Continued from here
Monotreme – at 00:33
Tom DVM,
Like everyone else, I’m concerned about the fall and winter, although I’m not sure that’s entirely logical. It’s flu season somewhere on earth almost all year. There seem to be more H5N1 cases in Jan-March, so I expect that will be true again this year. Will the pandemic begin then? I don’t know, but I do plan to have all my preps done by then. And I don’t just mean beans and rice.
Monotreme,
It boils down to a statistical issue. The majority of wild birds (I believe), humans, and poultry farms are in the northern hemisphere. The fall is when the wild birds have flown south for the winter and thus increase their interactions with poultry farms and humans. Hence, the fall and winter is when there is the greatest chance of an H2H2H→ variant of BF being picked up by a human.
That said, of course, the “greatest chance” doesn’t mean “only chance.” Clearly, the pot is boiling in Indonesia and it could go pandemic from there.
P.S. I should have said “flown south for the winter from Siberia.” The statistical issue doesn’t concern birds that live in temperate climates and fly to the equitorial regions for the winter. The issue is when all those birds who spend their summer swapping genes in Siberia fly to areas populated by people.
How does this relate to the present human incubation experiment being carried out in tropical and subtropical Asia?
It would appear that wildfowl migration is a secondary concern, no?
Craig – at 12:54
LMWatBUllRun – at 13:29
With all the activities in Asia, H5N1 hasn’t turned pandemic. What happens if the missing component is not found in any species in Asia?
For brain storming only, is it possible that the last key needed to unlock Pandora’s box is in North America ?
That is, H5N1 mutates many many times and finally infects an asymptomatic bird carrier in Asia which comes to America and infects a human/mammal/bird mixing vessel that turns it pandemic capable.
We don’t want to forget the back door while watching the front door.
ANON-YYZ at 14:46: Putting aside Dr. Niman’s theory that recombination is a primary means of viral evolution rather than just a sideshow, he was dead-on with predicting the migratory spread of the Quing Hai strain of H5N1. That is why I am so certain that H5N1 will eventually transform into a panflu. Another flu virus may beat it to the punch, (wouldn’t that be ironic), but with over half of the world not yet endemic and with nobody getting any information out of Africa, H5N1 has a “pat hand”. Dr. Niman is convinced AND has said so, and so are many others, but they are keeping their mouth shut, (a suspicion on my part).
And as anon_22 often emphasizes it is what we don’t know that is likely to rear up and complete this thing. We (inlcuding the experts) make predictions based on a science (virology) that is truly in its infancy. You can not sugarcoat it. Our knowledge in these quarters is abysmal. But it doesn’t take an Einstien to see the storm clouds of “data, timing, and momentum”. The old sailors knew when to head for port without the benefit of modern meteorology.
OK I’m a bit confused. I see that there are 164 suspected human cases in Thailand, but that doesn’t really seem to be focus of any of these discussions nor is it the focal point of the new items. Am I missing something? Is it a different, less lethal strain or something? I would think that if there really were 164 cases in a cluster in Thailand that it would be all that we would be talking about.
Felicia, No 164 cases of BF. Thailand, IMHO tests everyone who presents with flu symptoms. Better safe than sorry. Thailand has had only 2 deaths from BF. The possible cluster being discussed is in Endonesia. gina
Felicia – at 16:39 “OK I’m a bit confused. I see that there are 164 suspected human cases in Thailand, but that doesn’t really seem to be focus of any of these discussions nor is it the focal point of the new items. Am I missing something? Is it a different, less lethal strain or something? I would think that if there really were 164 cases in a cluster in Thailand that it would be all that we would be talking about.”
It has to be with a higher level of confidence in the Thai government, trusting that these numbers are only a reflection of much more stringent monitoring than a large number of suspected cases. This is similar to what happened a couple of months ago, when there was a case in Shenzhen, across the border from Hong Kong, and the Hong Kong government promptly required reporting of all pneumonia cases. We then saw large numbers being reported in the press but in the end none of them were infected.
The situation with Indonesia is very different. The current cluster of suspected and confirmed cases is happening in a underdeveloped area with poor resources and minimal local understanding of the perils of BF. And Indonesia has a very poor track record of managing both human and poultry outbreaks. For example, it has not undertaken any large scale culling of poultry in outbreak areas, even now. Contrast this with Thailand which during their very severe outbreak the previous year, the government recruited 1 million volunteers to go house-to-house all over the country to find all sick poultry for culling and to educate the villagers.
Ah….I see. But there isn’t a cluster in Indonesia currently is there? I see news reports of a case here and a case there, but nothing like the family cluster a while ago (in Karo, was it?)
Sorry Venkmann. I’m terrified beyond the capacity for rational thought.
ESpengler - just don’t think of the Sta-Puft Marshmallow Man
Felicia @ 17:53, I guess that comes down to how you define the word “cluster,” since you need to check out the new Indonesia thread about the 9–11 cases in a villege/hamlet /small town. The Indonesians say it isn’t a cluster since their narrow definition says it has to be the same family or on the same street, however these are people who live very near to one another. IMO it is a cluster, but I’m not a scientist.
That would be Chickelet, Indonesia thread which is now in two parts.
Felicia – at 17:53 “Ah….I see. But there isn’t a cluster in Indonesia currently is there? I see news reports of a case here and a case there, but nothing like the family cluster a while ago (in Karo, was it?)”
Well, we’re kinda keeping an eye on a developing situation on this thread.
The problem with clusters is that information is always going to be sketchy and confusing for quite a bit before we know one way or the other. It may not lead to anything, but we don’t know till we know. That’s just the nature of this thing, really.
To put this in perspective, clusters have been gradually and steadily occurring for the past year at least. The science of flu evolution is still pretty sketchy so one can’t say how big a cluster has to be before it might become a pandemic. And clusters don’t necessarily mean its all h2h2h2h, cos it is theoretically possible for a virus to be very efficient in b2h transmission and thus more people in that local area get infected.
Given that the virus is endemic in so many countries, it is unfortunately likely that we will have repeated emotional rollercoasters every time a possible cluster appears.
In view of that, it may be important to keep track of your emotional wellbeing, for those of you who are newer to this. It’s like remembering after 911 that not all flights ended up in the World Trade Center, and that flying for most people is still extremely safe.
BTW notice that the ‘old hands’ don’t freak out any more. At least not as much. It’s not that we don’t worry, but it IS possible to get yourself to accept some level of uncertainty and just wait for a bit. And most times, everything turns out OK.
My cluster “freakout” was the family members who became ill and died in Iraq-I really had myself convinced that was “IT”. I do get more concerned with clusters, but have learned-more or less-to keep myself under control. Because when TSHTF, I know I’ll need that nervous energy.
Whatever cluster happened in February is the one that got me. Lets just say that for a LONG time I will be eating canned goods that are marked 2/06 on the top of the can.
I can’t say that carrying canned goods was the sole cause, but I had to have the rear struts on my Subaru replaced this spring.
There is no doubt that the current outbreak of H5N1 in humans in Indonesia (Cikelet sub-district) is a cause for real concern. Although poultry culling has commenced, we have not heard anything about deaths in livestock there since the original report of over 100 chickens that the cousins fed to dogs.
The Karo cluster was experienced by blood relatives only. The current cases are across several families in different hamlets. However, when a mother and daughter succumbed, I immediately wanted to know more about symptom onset dates etc to determine if this is H2H or same source of infection.
And in Thailand, it is commendable that rigorous surveillance and testing is being undertaken, thus giving such a high number of suspect cases (182 on 17 Aug), and (thankfully) test results are showing negative results, but I am concerned that the high incidence of pneumonia being expereinced there cannot be explained.
Every cluster is another opportunity for a pandemic to begin because serial passage of virus in humans gives the virus more chances to adapt. For me, every H2H2H cluster is cause for sounding the alarms. I’m not sure that that is what is happening now, but if so I would move from yellow to orange.
Is it possible that we will observe much more really bad cases of “regular” flu (at least it tests non H5N1) because the viruses are mixing so much that the tests do not catch what is happening? Should we not, if that were the case, be looking at total flu cases and fatality and be less focused on the H5N1 alone? We might get some “false positives” (of approaching panflu) with that approach, in the sense that it might just be regular flu after all. But if five or ten times as many people get sick this flu season and there is a higher CFR, we will still have a nasty time, though it would be far short of the worst case. Ideas and comments welcome - this is not my area.
Is it possible that we will observe much more really bad cases of “regular” flu (at least it tests non H5N1) because the viruses are mixing so much that the tests do not catch what is happening? Should we not, if that were the case, be looking at total flu cases and fatality and be less focused on the H5N1 alone? We might get some “false positives” (of approaching panflu) with that approach, in the sense that it might just be regular flu after all. But if five or ten times as many people get sick this flu season and there is a higher CFR, we will still have a nasty time, though it would be far short of the worst case. Ideas and comments welcome - this is not my area.
Infomass,
Reassortment between regular flu, H3N2, and H5N1 should be easy to detect. I think this is what you are referring to.
I think the false negatives are because H5N1 has mutated. The primers which are used for PCR, which is used to detect H5N1, will fail if they don’t match the nucleotides of the virus they are being used with.
Monotreme, isn’t there a primer available that would detect all (high path) H5N1, without picking up other types such as H3N2? If the primer would have to change every time the H5N1 changes to greater (or lesser?) degree, what kind of trust can the medical people have in truthfulness of H5N1 PCR test over the long term? I suppose that would also apply to other low path influenza viruses also when they go through changes?
Hmmm. Medical Maven’s comment about the science of virology being in its infancy, just hit home quite a bit harder.
Monotreme, How will we know if it has mutated? Are they looking for this? Should this not be done on a regular bases since this is to be expected of this virus for it to go h2h2h2h… gina
LMWatBUllRun – at 13:29
“How does this relate to the present human incubation experiment being carried out in tropical and subtropical Asia? It would appear that wildfowl migration is a secondary concern, no?”
I agree with ANON-YYZ’s comment at 14:46 that we need to watch all the doors and not concentrate on just watching one. Yes, the pot is boiling in southeast Asia, but since this is a race to see when a “correct” viral swarm first meets a sociable person, we have no way of knowing if the winner (biologically speaking while continuing the race theme) will be in southeast Asia or not. I hate to bring a BF discussion down to the level of a childhood story, but this could turn out to be a race between the tortoise (avian-human interactions in the rest of the world) and the hare (southeast Asia). It would not be prudent to presume that the hare is going to win and put all the focus there. Thus, I still consider the northern hemispheric migrations this fall to be a serious concern given all the flyways, including some from southeast Asia, I believe, that merge in the summertime Great Siberian Gene Swap (GSGS ;-).
beehiver at 22:19,
isn’t there a primer available that would detect all (high path) H5N1, without picking up other types such as H3N2?
In a word, no. Mutations can occur in all 8 genomic segments. There are some segments that are more conserved than others, but the HA and N segments are actually under positive selection to evolve, to evade the immune system. And you need to look at HA and N to determine if you have H5N1 or H3N2. There are other ways to get sequence, but they are slower.
You are now seeing why I have been pulling my hair out regarding the sequences. Without prompt deposit of sequences, it is not possible to design good primers for rapidly detecting evolving H5N1 strains. Everyone who hinders sequence deposits is committing a crime against humanity, as Tom DVM says.
Hurricane Alley RN – at 22:20
How will we know if it has mutated?
By sequencing the virus.
Are they looking for this?
I sure as heck hope so.
Should this not be done on a regular bases since this is to be expected of this virus for it to go h2h2h2h…
You bet it should!
Monotreme, Thanks. Did you pick up the sequence that was released yesterday? This was on Flu-trackers. I was in a hurry, so I didn’t go to the site listed and write it down. Of course, now I wish I had. Now I’m left wondering. gina
Hurricane Alley RN,
There have been alot of sequences released lately, which is a good thing. Dude and I are working on organizing them with respect to epidemiology. But that will take some time.
Monotreme, Has any shown mutations lately? As you put it a couple of days ago…”Something wicked this way come.” Just wish I knew more about genetics. However, I feel time is running out and I’m to old. gina
Hurricane Alley RN – at 00:13
Has any shown mutations lately?
There were mutations in Karo, but it’s not clear how significant they were. We don’t have any sequence data from Cikelet yet. I think those will be very important to look at.
Craig – at 23:20 I hate to bring a BF discussion down to the level of a childhood story, but this could turn out to be a race between the tortoise (avian-human interactions in the rest of the world) and the hare (southeast Asia).
Please, to all of the learned and experienced scientific/medical minds here: do not underestimate the power of analogies when trying to explain something or answer questions. Of course, all analogies show some weakness when pushed to the extreme — but they are powerful teaching tools. Take a situation that many people do understand, and show the applicability to the situation they (we) do not yet understand. Craig, don’t apologize for using the tortise/hare analogy. It is a good one.
I think there is more “teaching” going on here than many people realize.
Monotreme – at 23:59
“There have been alot of sequences released lately, which is a good thing. Dude and I are working on organizing them with respect to epidemiology.”
If you have geographic data associated with the sequence data (ie-town/province name) I can query/map the data using GIS. Dude set me up with a email box some time ago. If I can help in anyway I would be happy to do so.
http://www.nwhc.usgs.gov/disease_information/avian_influenza/avian_influenza_map.jsp
Map with cases and location, links to news reports.
Z – at 12:40
I was thinking of mapping locations of a certain viral sequence X as it relates to the geographical locations of viral sequence Y. And then, where does viral sequence XY show up indicating a mixing of genetic material.
I know I have grossly simplified the process, and possibly used the wrong terminology, but you get the idea. This sort of thing is not going to be found on the internet, at least not in the immediate near future. Someone correct me if I am wrong.
Dennis in Colorado – at 10:36
“I think there is more “teaching” going on here than many people realize.”
You are so right. I have learned from this site that fear and panic is the worst thing that can happen. With what is going on, I am pushing the computer away and trying to keep all of the events in their proper light. We can only wait and watch.
Okieman. Never, never, never apologize for over-simplification…that is the basis of all good science!!
The map is 90% of the way there. All you have to do is cross reference the viral sequences.
usda.gov http://tinyurl.com/kc23e
“USDA, in partnership with the Department of Health and Human Services, Department of the Interior, and Department of Homeland Security, have developed three scenarios in the event of a detection and/or outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza in the United States. Each of these scenarios contains a series of key questions and answers about animal health, guidance for the public, as well as a summary of the actions USDA would take in the event of a highly pathogenic avian influenza detection in the United States.”
http://www.usda.gov/documents/AI_Scenario2.pdf
USDA Key Messages for Avian Influenza Scenario 2: Highly Pathogenic H5N1 Avian Influenza Detection in Wild Birds
“USDA and DOI would expand the interagency bird monitoring and testing. Expanded sampling would continue to occur in the area of the detection. And experts would follow the infected bird species’ flight routes based upon historical migration patterns.”
In the event of an HPAI H5N1 detection in wild birds, who would be in charge?
“DOI, in partnership with USDA, would lead on the wild bird response with support from other federal agencies, as well as state and local officials. Because initial sample test results could indicate an H5N1 avian influenza virus, the USDA lab in Ames, Iowa will confirm the diagnosis and pathogenicity of the virus. However, the confirmatory virus isolation testing would take 7–10 days to complete. And, while a detection of HPAI H5N1 in wild birds would NOT signal the start of a human flu pandemic, HHS leads the federal response and preparation activities that relate to public health.
HHS works closely with state and local public health experts. Every citizen has a role in preparing for the possibility for any human pandemic. More information is available at www.pandemicflu.gov.”
INFOMASS – at 21:26 re: “Is it possible that we will observe much more really bad cases of “regular” flu (at least it tests non H5N1) because the viruses are mixing so much that the tests do not catch what is happening?”
You have stated our greatest fears-that the 2 viruses meet in one place, be it in a pig or a human. This classic “mixed bowl” has the potential to create a pandemic strain of flu-one with the contagiouness of seasonal flu, and the deadly killing pwer of H5N1.
The more mixing bowls, the greater the chance the “recipe for disaster” gets perfected…….
The way things are shaping up on mixing bowls and H5N1, it could just as easily be a house cat or a dog.
…or a Brant goose in Canada…
Okieman – at 12:17
If you have geographic data associated with the sequence data (ie-town/province name) I can query/map the data using GIS. Dude set me up with a email box some time ago. If I can help in anyway I would be happy to do so.
Thanks! I planned for one of the fields to be longitude/latitude as the virus doesn’t care about political boundaries. I think your offer could be very helpful. When we’re a little further along, we’ll be sure to ask for your help.
With the on going issues in INDO and Thialand, Vietnam et al. Though this would be good to raise back to the top.
Reaching behind me and pulling this out of my back pocket, I now think we only have 30 to 60 days left. May be more may be less just a Wild A@@ guess.
Interested in one of the translated commentaries on the news thread today that one person recovering in Indonesia from H5N1 had only got the infection in the upper respiratory area. I am hoping this is an ‘issue’ with the translation - meaning deep seated pneumonia didn’t develop, and not that the virus is now capable of infecting the upper respiratory tract.
Anon451 - why couldn’t you just say “soon” - giving a time range is very disconcerting, even though we know it will happen, we still want to avoid the “this is it” signs - reality signals get too mind numbing (smiling)
AnnieB,
I think what they meant was this person did not get pneumonia.
I think its going to be a long stressful fall and winter.
bump
From a duplicate thread:
birdwatcher – at 20:53 I have not been on for most of the summer. Could I please have and update on where we stand in propective to the pandemic. Has the situation gotten worse oversea? And is there any idea when it might come to United States. I was following this closely. But like i said have been away for the summer. Now it seems to be the time as fall and winter approaches to keep a sharp eye on things.
What?!! You’re not in your bunker!!!! I told ya to leave a number that we could reach ya with.
Actually birdwatcher, The suspected cases in Indonesia continues to rise. As there doesn’t seem to be a large number of deaths with it, it appears that a lot of the suspected cases are not HP H5N1. Of course that could change, or maybe it’s gotten less lethal.
Indonesia had their first confirmed birdflu case on July 27 of last year and it took til September 16th for them to have their second. So if this thing is showing seasonality, then we are in for quite a ride.
Thanks for your reply Oremus… I just got a bit nervous and wanted to know what was going on recently.. I’m not letting my guard down. Ill be right back on the track of reading the flu wiki daily.
I’m quite concerned about recent events in Indonesia, the lack of information about what is going on in China, and, as always, the near complete absence of any data about Africa.
I’m a tad anxious.
Just a tad?
The 2 statements from the Safe America Conference that most concern me:
“Don’t do tabletop exercises – just do *Make a continuity plan – any plan but institute NOW tweek as you go”
“UN asked WHO to go to level 4 months ago – they refused –”
I need to think about this…
anon-22 Do you know why they said don’t do ttx?
enza – at 21:03 Having been in the public sector, I would take that as meaning. Put you plans in place, brief your staff and get ready you will be running the real thing in short order and you will not have time for Table Tops. You will have to fix your plans on run, as your “test” will be real world.
I hope that statement is wrong.
Oh dear… Ok here goes (hope I’m not outing myself): I do training/workshops/exercises/presentations on bf, after reading GOJU’s notes I wonder if it’s time to turn up the volume. And how loud? I could use some wiki hivemind feedback on this. It’s a tightrope walk trying to raise awareness and yet overcome ‘disaster fatigue’ or not create a panic. Of course there is always the usual question “Why is this not in the news”? or “I don’t see any of this in the news.”
enza – at 21:48 I know the feeling. I do not question anything that Goju has written, however; I have to say that the news here today is tremondus and yet not a peep on any of the MSM channels about the conference or what was said. May as well not of happened. I know that with out an offical transcript of the conference, I can not take Goju’s remarks to my bosses, they will want confermation and where do I send them???
anon-22 @ 1833 -
“Just a tad” is just an exercise in understatement. Those same two points jumped out at me with a vengeance, and then I go back to them telling people to prep for two weeks - there seems a great disconnect somewhere along the line.
The tidbits about China and Indonesia were also quite alarming, as the apparent brief mention of conditions elsewhere, with no elaboration. Iceberg, indeed.
I’m not sure they really have a clue about what is actually happening now - although they certainly do seem to have at least some notion of what may happen in the future.
I don’t think they have a clue how to deal with the enormity of the potential problems.
“Problems” - understatement, again.
The way Goju’s notes were written, the comments about “don’t do table top exercises, just do” seem to have come as part of the business continuity presentation…. by someone representing Walgreens, and also someone from what sounded like a consultant firm, maybe?
Also on that panel were representatives from the Red Cross and someone from Homeland Security.
The context of a recommendation like “Get a plan in place, you can fine tune it later, but do it NOW” is meaningful. If I am correct about where it was coming from, it sounds like REALLY GOOD ADVICE from people in business who know how businesses operate. They are saying, “Don’t sit and think for three years and come up with a plan, make this a priority.”
But it doesn’t necessarily mean to me that they have some insider knowledge that we have say X weeks left before time runs out. I think they are just giving really good advice, exactly the advice most here on Fluwikie would (and do) give our friends and family. “Don’t put this off — at least get started now, you can finetune things later, but just get started.”
The tidbits re: China,Indonesia, Nigeria ect. are giving me the chills too. Its one thing to assume things are a mess its another to see it confifmed.
Im begining to think we will be darn lucky to avoid a pandemic this year. Ive never felt that we were on the brink before. Im not liking the feeling. I hope we all use our God given time well.
you are right - do it now - it came form a biz consultant.
they do not have any more info than we do. I know we have more - they also videotaped the conference.
write Safe America…
len.pagano@safeamerica.org
he is the CEO. he will get you what you need.
janetn – at 22:22 The tidbits re: China,Indonesia, Nigeria ect. are giving me the chills too.
In brief, can someone tell me what this means? The Current Confirmed Cases list on the main page of fluwikie hasn’t changed a bit that I can see, so what can be going on that’s so ominous? I try to read the news threads but it’s so hard for me to understand — ya’ll are way over my head on those assessment threads!
What has changed other than more of basically nothing going on? Is there REALLY something today going on or stuff from last week or last month, etc.? I don’t get it. Sorry.
Average Concerned Mom – at 22:21 The way Goju’s notes were written, the comments about “don’t do table top exercises, just do” seem to have come as part of the business continuity presentation…. by someone representing Walgreens, and also someone from what sounded like a consultant firm, maybe?
ACM, my experience in the finance, health care, and business sectors tells me that Anon_451 has it closer to right. I think these businesses were being told to sh*t or get off the pot, cuz pandemic is going to be bearing down on us in short order. I don’t think the speakers necessarily have a specific number of weeks or months in mind from some inside track. I do think they understand that it will likely take at least a couple to few months for large organizations to implement even basic change. With that in mind, I believe these business people were being told that their time for handwringing is over and that they need to move to action immediately.
The report from Booze-Allen-Hamilton that Goju uploaded is extremely convincing. If it’s OK to distribute that, I would recommend disseminating it to anyone you want to take planning seriously.
After reading it, I am very concerned. If we have a severe or very severe pandemic this year, we are going to see a collapse of civilization in many areas. There is no longer any doubt whatsoever in my mind about this. TPTB are not ready. They do not have a secret plan to take care of the megacities. Even people in high priority cities will be lucky if they survive.
i hate to ask but i have not even had a chance to look at the material i uploaded from the DVD Safe America handed out - which file is this report?
With the greatest of respect to you, Momotreme & to Goju’s report, I still don’t get it….how was this report any different than what we’ve been hearing since the beginning? It appears from everyone’s posts that you picked up on something more ‘urgent’ than before. All I read boiled down to no matter who we talk to, unless they are a handful of important people we know take this seriously, then all we’ll hear is ‘don’t worry’ kind of stuff. That’s aggrevating, but not ‘new’ news is it? What is so special about this report?? I’m sorry I’m not catching on to what’s different now from where we were yesterday.
I agree, Monotreme. After reading Goju’s report, my stress level has risen considerablly. We need to focus on what you have been saying for weeks. We need to get out the word about the impact of a high CFR. Everyday folks no longer have time for a planning excercise either. The clock has begun.
Goju - The one presented by Himberger (VP of Booze-Allen-Hamilton)
I’m also not getting something.
It seems like there were two comments that Goju mentioned that seemed particularly alarming — the “Get the plan done NOW” comment and also the “UN asked the WHO to go to Level 4″.
I read those and I think “oh my gosh, we are being kept in the dark, they know something we don’t know…”
But both comments can be seen in a different context. They know exactly what we know — something bad is coming our way — probably — but we don’t know how long from now — etc.
None of this seems like new information; just more people being brought up to speed, perhaps.
It is great advice to tell businesspeople, “Don’t make plans, just do it”, no doubt, but it doesn’t sound like alarming news to me. Not if Walgreens is telling it to some businesspeople at a conference. I’m not minimizing this, I just don’t see how it is different news from how things stood yesterday. Who exactly do you think is informing Walgreens that they had better get ready NOW? And why can’t they just tell businesspeople themselves to start planning?
As for the WHO being asked to move to 4 by the UN — didn’t they make the right decision not to move? The pandemic didn’t start back in the spring. If they had moved to 4, wouldn’t they have had to move back to a 3 by now? They only get one chance to move to a 4 right? Or do they get to go back and forth?
I’m-workin’-on-it – at 22:55 For the average person here on FluWikie, nothing has changed. However; it appears that the TPTB are starting to wake up and the monster in the closet is out and scaring the pants off of them. It’s one of those, “Oh now we see what those flu nuts have been talking about. Wow we got to get moving or we are going to lose our behinds” Or something to that effect. Please remember that this is just my opinion.
ACM, thank God I’m not crazy. I thought it was just me and I was having bouts of brain denseness….I’m impressed as heck with Goju’s work on this, and the more meetings there are, the better for all of us, so everyone can at least hear about the pending dangers, etc.
It seems to me that we’re not any more threatened today than we were before, just a few more people may take personal action from their experiences with this conference and that’s good.
I still don’t get the references to ‘tidbits’ RE China,Indonesia, Nigeria — I must have missed them but there haven’t been several glaring threads expounding on them, so I have to assume nothing much must have changed with them either. Someone please let me know if I’m wrong.
Anon_451 – at 23:07 I value your opinion, may I ask, from Goju’s report, which powers that be do you think are more on board than they were? I must not have picked up on that.
i got from nabarro when he talked about indonesia that it is as we see - one big mess - the reports are sporadic and unclear - too many to keep track of - if this is what we are seeing - what are THEY seeing? He doesnt know - thats why he is going there next week.
Nothing has changed except another day H5N1 has to mutate and spread. and another day to prep some more
Goju, the Booze-Allen-Hamilton report is labeled “Doug Himberger.pdf”. It is a simulation that was done in collaboration with The World Economic Forum. If you and the Mods agree, I think it would be great to put it on the Wiki side.
Some excerpts from a box called “Ten things I learned” by David Nabarro:
Quite likely by Day 28 all systems will have fallen apart…
Martial law is not an end but a means…
Military must be involved in the response to help keep the peace and deliver essential goods and services.
Monotreme — I just read that report. January 2006. Isn’t it the same one that was reporeted in the Maine Stream Meadi (quietly) — the Booze Allen study that showed the internet would likely crash by about the 4th day of a pandemic? And martial law would be declared? Wasn’t it based in Europe?
But it is September now, and when you are talking about the Powers that Be having no secret plan to take care of the megacities — how do you get that from this report — from 9 months ago? Why would Booze-Allen-Hamilton — working in Euprope — have any knowledge in January of a USA secret plan to help cities?
I very much respect your opinion, I’m just wondering what about this report seems new to you.
If we have a severe or very severe pandemic this year, we are going to see a collapse of civilization in many areas. There is no longer any doubt whatsoever in my mind about this
how can you be so sure, when anyone else is full of doubt
and experts are contradicting each other ?
A 1918-like pandemic is probably considered “very severe” in most
people’s language. They were much less prepared than we are today.
Yet there was no “collapse of civilization”. Not even many political
changes or consequences. Let alone war, revolution, or such.
The same holds for other (local) natural desasters.
Our knowledge about technology and civilization cannot be destroyed.
So, what exactly do you mean with “collapse of civilization” ?
Is there any expert who shares your opinion ?
Average Concerned Mom,
You’re right that this report was from 9 months ago, but this is the first time I read it. You also need to read it in the context of all the powerpoints and the other reports. For example, read the Issac Weisfuse file which describes Pandemic Influenza Planning NYC. It’s clear that TPTB in NYC are in La-La land. They have no idea what to do. Have they read the Booze-Allen-Hamilton report? Hard to believe they have. Recall also that Dr. Frieden, the Health comissioner for NYC, said a flu pandemic was unlikely. He said this last week. Does this jive with the conference? The information Goju brought back, in it’s entirety, confirms my suspicion that NYC has been written off, and they don’t know it.
The Soothers have been beating the Realists, IMO. Even if the Realists start winning, if a severe pandemic happens this year, it is too late to do what is necessary. The Realists need to start winning and we have to have at least another year to get ready.
why is it too late then ? When the pandemic starts in East-Asia, we still have some months to prepare.
anonymous – at 23:37
Look at all the material Goju uploaded, then see if you have the same opinion. Very severe would mean 50% CFR.
I don’t think all knowledge would be lost. I think there might be communities that escape the brunt of the pandemic. But I think some regions will regress to a very primitive state.
no
Goju,
No to what?
Monotreme,
please do put it on the wiki. Thanks.
no to - no time to prep - as they kept saying - DO IT NOW.
anonymous, look through this thread and you’ll get more reasons as to why I am so pessimistic:
For all those who don’t think things have changed with the information presented by Goju, they have and perhaps for the better. It is one thing for individual “flu wackos” to say prepare while you can, it is another to see that BIG corporations are taking this seriously, such as the mention of Motorola wanting to do PSAs, albeit for 2 weeks of preps. You can now wave Walgreens, Campbell Soup, 3M and Deloitte and Touche in people’s faces and, with luck, they will take notice that some of the “big boys” think this is something to take seriously. MAYBE we will get the attention of the disbelievers more easily now…maybe…
Way to go, Goju!!!
Edna Mode at 22:36 I think these businesses were being told to sh*t or get off the pot, cuz pandemic is going to be bearing down on us in short order. I don’t think the speakers necessarily have a specific number of weeks or months in mind from some inside track.
This is basically what we are being told privately in public safety.
I believe you are correct in your assessment Edna
We were told specifically by public health to:
Prepare ASAP, do not wait. Do it NOW ! with emphasis.
Prepare for 12 weeks of self sufficiency. Food, water treatment, meds, PPE for each of us and our family members.
Prepare to backfill for regular pub safety in the major metro area we interface, also a need to be self-contained. (we’re a rural-urban interface volunteer department)
anonymous – at 23:47
When the pandemic starts in East-Asia, we still have some months to prepare.
When the pandemic starts in East-Asia, it takes only one sick person on a plane to America to infect lots of people while travelling. This person may not show any symptoms for 2 to 8 days, so there is no way to prevent this from happening. Others have posted or quoted table-top excercises at Los Alamos that it only takes 92 hours for a pandemic strain to spread to every single major city in the world.
You won’t have months. You won’t even have hours. When you hear it on the news, it’s because thousands are dying in Asia, hundreds will alreay be dying in your city, at which time there will be panic in the stores.
Many Cats – at 00:09 You can now wave Walgreens, Campbell Soup, 3M and Deloitte and Touche in people’s faces and, with luck, they will take notice that some of the “big boys” think this is something to take seriously.
Anybody else find it interesting today that CVS pharmacies announced (on Bloomberg) the impending rollout of on-site minor medical clinics at most of it’s pharmacies.
To be staffed with Nurse Practitioners and Physician Assistants who can write Rx.
They purchased a clinic chain just for that purpose.
I find the timing interesting.
Los Alamos:
92 hours to infect EVERY major airline hub city worldwide.
Two weeks ot infect every airline spoke city
28 days for worldwide infection.
I swear, sometimes I want to throw this laptop out the window.
that’s two weeks TO infect
Bird Guano:
At 00:19 Agreed!
At 00:24 We are in the shadow of the axe.
BG: Great handle, by the way… :)
Here are a few more nuggets from the Booze-Allen-Hamilton simulation for those who haven’t read it:
anonymous. ANON YYZ knows what he/she is talking about. He/she is from Canada and when the World Health Organization (Good old Dick) finally got around to announcing that an atypical infection had escaped and we might want to keep an eye out for it…SARS had been circulating in Toronto Ontario Canada emergency departments and hospitals for more than a week already.
The World Health Organization closed the barn door after the horses were out of the barn, down the lane, and in the next county.
In the nineteenth century there were two bad ones and one mild one. The 1830 pandemic was as bad as 1918…and they said the 1890 pandemic was far worse than 1918…
…for all we know…1918 might be the median instead of an outlier.
OK, I missed it, where is the info posted by Goju that you are all talking about? Thread and time, or link please.
Monotreme at 23:47, I don’t know, where to find it. How long does it take to read it ?
As I understood, this is old material, known since long.
Experts are aware of it, yet they don’t share your alarmism.
Why should I believe that you are better informed or more rational than they are ?
Monotreme at 00:03, that thread is too long. I’m happy when I can follow this one for now.
yyz at 00:15, the pandemic won’t be everywhere at once. Statistics from old pandemics
as well as computer-simulations for a H5N1-pandemic show that it takes months
to spread. That 92 hours probably means single cases in some towns, no need
to stop prepping then. I somehow remember a simulation which said 40 or 50 days to
spread through USA. Once it is there.
When there is an outbreak of efficient h2h in -say- Indonesia, I estimate
it will probably take months until there are the first cases in USA.
But I’m not sure. I would like to see some studies or expert opinions or such.
We know, what happened with SARS, but we were not prepared to see that
outbreak. Now WHO got billion $ to prevent early spread and awareness is bigger.
Oremus It is all in the Goju’s notes threads…conference in NYC.
Oremus: Go to the Goju’s Thought and Notes Thread.
Hi, Tom DVM! GET BETTER!!!!!!!! :)
anonymous. Hang in there with us…because you are sadly mistaken!!
Thanks, haven’t read that one.
Oremus – at 00:48,
Sorry. The thread is: Gojus Notes and Thoughts-Safe America Conference NYC, first post by Gojua t 12:11. He has a link to an upload of all the files from conference.
The document I am quoting is from a file called “Doug Himberger.pdf” from the PNS handout directory.
Many Cats /:0). I will. I promise.
Tom DVM: :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :)!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (I’d do more but I hear repeats tend to screw up the wiki pages) :) :)!!!
Many Cats – at 00:09 You can now wave Walgreens, Campbell Soup, 3M and Deloitte and Touche in people’s faces and, with luck, they will take notice that some of the “big boys” think this is something to take seriously.
Ok, so the what we should see as the ‘difference’ should be that NOW we should be able to go to the websites of these companies (today or very soon) & find their ‘take’ on BF with recommendations of what do to to prep and the urgency to hurry, how long to prep for, etc. where that info wasn’t there before?? Am I on the right track?
The direct link to Goju’s file is here….look about halfway down (it’s in alphabetical order) to the SafeAmerica link; click on individual links within the file to see the upload in its entirety. His report from yesterday has taken my PPF up as well, to say the least.
I find it interesting that Walgreens was at the conference. I was just telling my husband that I’d noticed an emergency prep section in all of the recent Walgreens ads (crank emergency radios, LED lights…clearly marked as emergency prep) and noticed that all such items on their website are offered with free shipping.
Bird Guano – at 00:19
Anybody else find it interesting today that CVS pharmacies announced (on Bloomberg) the impending rollout of on-site minor medical clinics at most of it’s pharmacies. To be staffed with Nurse Practitioners and Physician Assistants who can write Rx…..
The HEB grocery chain (one of the major ones in Texas) has just begun doing the same thing in the pharmacy section of several of its larger stores and are in expansion mode to include more stores soon. I had the same thought about the ‘timing’ of it as you did.
anonymous – at 00:51
the pandemic won’t be everywhere at once
True, but it will progress fairly rapidly. However, you should NOT count on your city being the lucky one.
Statistics from old pandemics as well as computer-simulations for a H5N1-pandemic show that it takes months to spread.
Old pandemics didn’t have to deal with air travel. Jakarta International Airport, for example, is only 100 miles from Cikelet, which also happens to be an exotic tourist spot (white water rafting). Indonesia is also very close to Singapore and Malaysia. Singapore Changi International Airport is well known air hub - for Australia, Europe and Japan.
From Wikipedia (Straits of Malacca):
“At Phillips Channel near Singapore, the 805 km (500 mile) channel is only 1.5 nautical miles (2.8 km) wide at its narrowest point. This creates one of the world’s most significant traffic bottlenecks [1].”
Which simulation says it take months to spread? A pandemic doesn’t have to spread COMPLETELY for panic to set in. It just has to do enough for the whole world to realize a pandemic strain has spread beyond it’s initial outbreak location. When every one wants to prep, there won’t be enough supplies any where.
I’m-workin’: I have a family full of folks who think this is “no big deal.” Anything some of us can get to show others that these corporations are serioulsy looking into AI, whether for their own internal purposes or to help alert the public, lends more legitimacy to our urgings to prepare. I would rather not see my family caught short as regards preps and hope that this may help. Granted the next argument to overcome will be “Well 3M sells masks and Campbell’s soup is a prep. item, so these companies are only looking to increase their bottom lines” but it is something that some of these groups are making plans for their own infrastructure. Every little bit helps when you have to try to convince others of the real threat that H5N1 poses.
Anonymous, all I can say is you have a LOT of reading to catch up on to form an educated opinion on the subject matter.
Your faith in politicians (WHO is driven by politics) is sadly misplaced.
I have the latest Los Alamos after action report on my other computer.
When I get back to it, I will post EXACTLY their 92 hour assumption.
It was NOT for individual infections. It was exponential infection of the entire airline hub network.
The comparison to SARS is a continuing straw man I see used in a lot of discussions to downplay the threat.
SARS was symptomatic. All of the pandemic flu canidates are Asymptomatic for up to a week.
HUGE difference.
Sorry to break in, but this thread’s on my target list. It’s getting long and slowing down, so I’m going to close it and continue the discussion here
Last relevant post copied to new thread
I have no links to the computer simulations ATM, also, I can’t locate and read the Goju paper and follow this thread simultaneously… Some MIDAS-simulations, Ferguson et.al, maybe. Take e.g. infection period of 4 days and R_0 of 2, then after 40 days you have 1000 infections, still no danger for me and no reason to isolate. Or start with 100 people on day 0, 2 days of infection, R_0=3, hmm., 2–3 weeks only until it starts to become dangerous - but these were extreme assumptions. Air-travel will probably be reduced in a pandemic and other measures can slow the spread. Quarantine,isolation,antivirals,contact-tracing. I still think, that probably the first 2 months average people in USA are safe.