Continued from here
Bird Guano – at 01:27
Anonymous, all I can say is you have a LOT of reading to catch up on to form an educated opinion on the subject matter.
Your faith in politicians (WHO is driven by politics) is sadly misplaced.
I have the latest Los Alamos after action report on my other computer.
When I get back to it, I will post EXACTLY their 92 hour assumption.
It was NOT for individual infections. It was exponential infection of the entire airline hub network.
The comparison to SARS is a continuing straw man I see used in a lot of discussions to downplay the threat.
SARS was symptomatic. All of the pandemic flu canidates are Asymptomatic for up to a week.
HUGE difference.
the “airline hub network” being infected is still no danger for the economy to change and to prepare for stockpiling essentials. No danger for individuals running to stores or pharmacies. The asymptomatic spread is rarer, usually we have 4–5 days differences of onset dates in these clusters.
(copied from the old thread)
I have no links to the computer simulations ATM, also, I can’t locate and read the Goju paper and follow this thread simultaneously… Some MIDAS-simulations, Ferguson et.al, maybe. Take e.g. infection period of 4 days and R_0 of 2, then after 40 days you have 1000 infections, still no danger for me and no reason to isolate. Or start with 100 people on day 0, 2 days of infection, R_0=3, hmm., 2–3 weeks only until it starts to become dangerous - but these were extreme assumptions. Air-travel will probably be reduced in a pandemic and other measures can slow the spread. Quarantine,isolation,antivirals,contact-tracing. I still think, that probably the first 2 months average people in USA are safe.
You’re betting your life on that assumption if it ever comes to pass.
I’m not willing to do that.
As for air travel being reduced. Nope.
When you can get access to the Goju documents, read up on how many nations are NOT going to restrict air travel at pandemic onset. France being one I remember off the top of my head.
The Los Alamos study was 92 hours for every airline hub CITY, not just the airline network. The cities connected to those hubs.
Asymptomatic infection has been less than rare with the documented H5N1 clusters thus far in Asia.
Even if it wasn’t. Do you REALLY think that 5 days difference between onset is enough time for the “economy to change and to prepare stockpiling essentials”
Take Tokyo for example. 22 million people in the metro Tokyo area. Major airline hub city.
Do you think a week, two weeks is enough time to stockpile essentials ?
I don’t hold that opinion.
Not even close.
anonymous – at 01:44
the “airline hub network” being infected is still no danger for the economy to change and to prepare for stockpiling essentials. No danger for individuals running to stores or pharmacies. The asymptomatic spread is rarer, usually we have 4–5 days differences of onset dates in these clusters.
As pandemic hits, the government will be more and more reluctant to announce it until it is absolutely confirmed, and even then only when security arrangements are set in motion to control the crowds. I expect rationing at the stores. Due to Just-in-time supply chain, the stores will be emptied within hours, then truck drivers start walking off the job to get home in a hurry as they hear the news on the radio.
By the time the government announces confirmed pandemic case in a city, many more will have been infected by the index case, and in public places, contact tracing will not find every one infected. The containment will fail. Knowing this, the public will panic, just as the public is in denial now - same irrationality. Attempts by governments to calm the public will also fail.
Once confidence is breached, the only tool left is martial law and rationing on a diminishing resupply - you won’t be able to buy your preps.
Just-in-time prepping is an oft repeated fallacy.
Not going to happen, and here is why:
First, unless you have cash, the automatic credit/debit card merchant software will kick in and kill your card for unusual activity. Good luck calling a call center in India to get your card re-activated.
Second, many grocery distributors already have pandemic distribution plans, with trigger points.
Their plan is to hold the food at the distribution warehouses, not in the stores.
There are also written plans for rationing on items from the get-go. No chance to stock up.
Just-in-time prepping is a complete and utter FANTASY.
some weeks, months to change the economy, politics, laws. Supply chains with essential workers in protective cloths will(should) be established. Non-essential business will be closed or changed to telefone-internet. Priorities will change, prices too. It will be uncomfortable, costly but main problem is health, of course. I don’t see “collapse of civilization” or such. Trains with food and essentials will still go. Much better than e.g. siege of cities in war. And it’s only 6–8 weeks for one wave.
That’s for a severe pandemic. More likely seems a non-severe one.
‘’You’re betting your life on that assumption if it ever comes to pass.
I’m not willing to do that. As for air travel being reduced. Nope. ‘’
you’re betting your life in city-traffic each day. The first weeks of
a pandemic in your country present no larger risk IMO.
Of course air-traffic will be reduced and surveilled to/from critical areas.
See SARS. See the pandemic plans.
Just how much, that’s the question. It depends on the situation.
anonymous – at 02:08
More likely seems a non-severe one.
Wish is not a plan. No one knows.
some weeks, months to change the economy, politics, laws. Supply chains with essential workers in protective cloths will(should) be established.
Some essential workers will die or get sick during the weeks, months to change to the new pandemic environment. There won’t be enough workers to put into protective clothes even if you have these PPE. You also need international cooperation. Our suppliers e.g. China will not ship product they need for themselves and if their own supply chain from other countriesd is in trouble, and their factory workers get sick, and their electricity fails, and …. you get the picture. It will be AFTER the pandemic when the world start picking up the pieces.
The bottom line is if you start preparing after a pandemic case is announced, you won’t find the products you need. And if cannot shelter in place, you will risk infection. You will become part of the problem.
yyz, martial law etc. are _in favour_ for a longer preparation period.
Truck drivers are easy to find.
When you can’t go shopping, then get your needs delivered.
Just a question of pricing. Maybe you can improve your financials
by occasional truck driving.
BG, I assume priorities will change once the pandemic starts.
Your credit card won’t be cancelled just because an epidemic
starts in Asia.
I don’t think food will be a major problem in a pandemic.
None of the panelists would hazard a guess as to when a human outbreak would occur, but they were all certain it will happen.
yyz, you will still find the products you need when panflu starts. They won’t vanish. Just more expensive. Whether it’s cheaper to stockpile them now and accept the stockpiling costs than to pay the increased prices when panflu starts, that’s the question. Your job, house, car, education etc. will still be probably more important (expensive) than your food. As it is now.
Oremus, forget this “not if but when” nonsense. It gives no timeline and refers to any pandemic, not only H5N1. So, it could be in 100 years and it could be mild.
anonymous – at 02:12
‘Of course air-traffic will be reduced and surveilled to/from critical areas. See SARS. See the pandemic plans.’‘
SARS is symptomatic within 24 hours so you can monitor at airports etc once it’s known.
Pandemic influenza can be asymptomatic for 2 to 8 days, during which one air traveller can infect hundreds. By the time the governments decide to monitor at airports, pandemic will have already spread out of control. That’s why most countries won’t close the borders, other than for a short time (to reduce hysteria).
The first weeks of a pandemic in your country present no larger risk IMO.
Even if true (risk of infection by the index case or initial local cluster), it’s irrelevant because if it’s not announced you won’t have started preparing, and once it’s announced, there won’t be enough supplies for you. At this point, no one knows how high is R0, but public knows pandemic has arrived. Suddenly, public starts thinking worst case which leads to panic and compounds the problem of not enough supplies.
… and even that is uncertain with the efforts for a all-flu-vaccine and improved antivirals and advances in genetics. There is some (small?) chance that we will never see a pandemic again.
Bird Guano, Is this the Los Alamos simulation you need?
It’s why I think prepping for less than 5 months is insane.
anonymous – at 02:31
OK, forgotten. Boy do I feel better. 8^)
Had to leave for a few hours, this has been a lively debate. At least I have the affirmation that my read on the curent threat assessment is not a singular opinion.
anonymous – at 02:22
martial law etc. are _in favour_ for a longer preparation period. Truck drivers are easy to find. When you can’t go shopping, then get your needs delivered. Just a question of pricing.
You are relying on ‘the greater fool’ theory. You assume that other people will be dumber than you and let you buy off all the supplies you need before they realize what’s happening. A hint of price increase will result in a mad dash to the stores. I am talking about interstate drivers. You won’t be able to ‘suddenly’ find willing and able to replace those who decide to go home to join their families. I don’t want deliveries once pandemic starts.
Oremus, that link shows <0.1% of the population infected after 50 days. So there would be little risk (1:1000) for you in the first 50 days.
anonymous – at 02:28
you will still find the products you need when panflu starts. They won’t vanish. Just more expensive.
How do you know for certain? You are betting again on ‘the greater fool theory’.
yyz, new supplies will be produced and transported. Just a question of pricing. As for the drivers, just redouble their salary and you’ll get more than you need. OK, the delivering prices might redouble too, but supplies are still available. Maybe not affordable, though. However I dare to prognose that in USA death from starving would be much lower than death from ARDS in a pandemic.
Wonders if anonymous and Dick Thompson are one and the same….
anyone has a link to that Himberger file BTW. ?
anonymous – at 02:45
It’s the 90 day mark that concerns me most.
But say days 30 to 50 I only have a 1 in a thousand chance per day of catching it. roll that thousand sided die twenty times and my odds go to 1 in 50 if I’m out there daily.
yes, I’m betting. But there is some evidence. This happened in other crisises.
Oremus, not 1:1000 per day, but 1:1000 in total. It’s exponential. Yes, the 90-day mark is worrisome, but my point was that you still would have 1–2 months to prepare without much danger for your health.
anonymous – at 02:34
the efforts for a all-flu-vaccine and improved antivirals and advances in genetics.
Efforts do not equal results, within the time frame that matters. It’s been widely discussed in various threads even with announced vaccines or anti-virals that have commenced human trials, they won’t be available within the next year. While these ‘magic solutions’ are developed, more strains and variations of HxNx are threatening us. There is no evidence that any of these marketing promises will turn to reality.
I am not counting on a ‘magic solution’ and am preparing for a pandemic. If I am wrong, I will simply use the supplies over a longer period of time.
You are betting some one finds a ‘magic solution’ before it turns pandemic. If you are wrong, you are dead. What is the price of being dead?
I’ve had a year to prepare and I’m still not done. 1–2 months, PLEASE!?! And that with everyone else wanting to prep at the same time.
anonymous – at 02:52
new supplies will be produced and transported. Just a question of pricing. As for the drivers, just redouble their salary and you’ll get more than you need. OK, the delivering prices might redouble too, but supplies are still available. Maybe not affordable, though. However I dare to prognose that in USA death from starving would be much lower than death from ARDS in a pandemic.
At least in Canada, emergency legislation have already been passed that will forbid price increases once pandemic is announced. That means you won’t be able to just buy what you need if you are able to pay, which also means the sellers can’t afford higher salaries to move the goods, and you will have a lot of competition to buy the limited supplies. That means mad dash first come first served and very quickly rationing.
You must be very afraid, because the biggest deniers are the ones who are scared stiff and can only fantasize the perfect outcome to keep themselves sane.
anonymous – at 02:45
You’re also assuming that I won’t be at ground zero or it’s immediate surroundings.
anonymous – at 02:54
yes, I’m betting. But there is some evidence. This happened in other crisises.
Other crises, be it famine, war, earthquakes etc are localized. The rest of the world comes to the rescue or at worst charge more money and bring in supplies e.g. war zone in Iraq.
With a pandemic, even your neighbor town will not be able to save you. They will save themselves first.
You are on your own.
ANON-YYZ – at 03:07
anonymous – at 02:52
As a supplementary to my comments, the only attractive currency that’s accepted are supplies. Forget paper money, and forget your credit card.
If you and I are on a deserted island, and I have food and you have gold, I won’t sell you the food if you pay me gold of the same weight. Because when you starve to death, I will inherit your gold, and your house, your fine art, and your other worldly possessions.
Good night.
yyz, I see a small chance, but I do see it. 5% or such, but still
contradictiong this “not if but when” - nonsense.
Oremus, maybe you want too much luxury in a pandemic, when you need so long
to prepare ?
yyz, there will always be a black market. You can’t avoid that.
Does the government want to stop trading, when sellers _refuse_ to
sell at that government-price ?
More likely that this silly law will be rejected or that the government
will change.
yyz, you have the infrastructure in USA, which is still intact.
Much easier to transport goods on existing railways or streets
with high-level security and desinfection than to have no working
railroads and streets at all.
anonymous – at 03:34
Not everyone can afford to outlay money quickly to prep in a short time. Some of us have to wait for the cash to free up.
anonymous – at 03:34
You can always do your black market deal in a dark alley. Some one will loot and the sell. How do you know the black marketeer is going to honor his end of the bargain. Better bring your firearm - did someone say prep for a firearm?
You love living on the edge?
ANON-YYZ – at 03:24
That adds new meaning to, “A horse! A horse! My kingdom for a horse!”
ANON-YYZ – at 03:49
Are you implying that a black marketeer might be of questionable character? I’m shocked!
Anyway, where would he dispose of the body, other than the mound of flu corpses on the corner, that is.
Someone, print this thread out for posterity. Truth is still stranger than fiction.
I remember why I wasn’t turning the computer on when I couldn’t sleep… Rather go look at the full moon just now. Ta ta for now.
At Four Quadrants for Planning things are oversimplified like this: there will be a next pandemic and it could be “soon and ugly” or any of the other 3 possibilities (“not so soon, not so bad” etc).
“Soon” means “sooner than we can prepare for it”. This lenght of time is anyone’s guess, but it could be 3 years. Maybe, in 3 years, technology will be able to produce vaccines in a few days and for zillions of people. Maybe, in that time, we’ll know enough about statins or whatever. Maybe, we’ll have useful plans for simple masks everywhere. Maybe there’ll be a tide for self-reliance and how-tos on how to grow your own food and plans dealing with shortages of drivers and so on. Maybe. And part of that will happen anyway, but part of it will happen because we are acting on it (think Y2K, and think “acting”, not talking or discussing or disecting), and part of it will not happen widely or quickly enough.
“Ugly” means “ugly enough to cause more trouble, worldwide and locally, than we’ve seen in the past 40 years”. This is also a continuous variable and disecting two distinct categories is not realistic at all, but I believe it helps us map this whole thing. A pandemic can be “ugly” without being “very deadly”.
I honestly don’t know about probabilities. I find it difficult to assess probabilities in a highly “complex” (not simple like child’s board-games, not complicated like chess, but complex like “chess with neurotic pawns, and queens with their own shaky agendas”) situation. The probability of a “soon and ugly” pandemic is larger than zero. Large enough if you ask me. And it might be growing, because there are more countries, and more less-controlled countries, and the number of human cases doesn’t stop growing, and there’s evidence that “human to human” is more likely now than “bird to human”, and there’s evidence that the viruses are not the same everywhere, and flu in general has this nasty tendency to change.
And here we’re all trying to wrap our minds around two different sets of things: how the virus will evolve, and how humankind will react. We can fight each other to death about both, but I think we don’t need to do that at all. We must act on our individual assessment of how things are now, and on our hunches of how the virus will evolve and how we will react. We can bring in pieces of (historic) evidence by the tons, and still we don’t know what will happen exactly. We react to our view of the future. I think this is the only thing we always do.
Regarding “wanting too much luxury in a pandemic”, I agree to a certain extent. Many of us, certainly those of us with the luxury of connecting to the internet (a proxy for food, water, shelter and basic medication), could do with less than we have now. But not all: what about diabetics and those on other important drugs? My personal assessment is that those in “luxury” are also into “fragility”. Things need not be civilization busters to be worth planning and preparing for. I certainly believe the pendulum should turn into the direction of less fragility, not more.
And there’s also the matter of “scale” (hospitals are ready to cope with what they cope with now, etc) and “interaction” (try running a hospital with health-care workers unwilling or unable to go to work, in a moment when you need more and not less workers).
5%? High enough! Transporting goods on existing railways? That needs two things: planning, and acceptance of those plans as the best possible course of action. Both planning and acceptance need the communication of risk, and such a risk needs to be communicated BEFORE the events.
Yes: we’re doing all this BECAUSE there’s no pandemic at this time. Someone wrote that we want to turn a huge disaster into a “normal” one. My suggestion would be: just look at the whole thing, see where you can contribute, and start doing stuff.
Sorry about the long rant. How can we make fluwikie (and the whole constelation of allies that fluwikie is part of) the best contribution ever?
Friends, this is where the old adage comes into play “ You can lead a horse to water, but cannot make it drink”. Obiously, anonymous has his mind made up, and who are we to change it? Remeber, advocate the cause, do not crusade, and DO NOT let anonymous know where you live, for he will be the first in line to commandeer your preps when TSHTF :o), having said that Keep prepping, time is running out.
anonymous, you have never had to prep for a hurricane, have you? You wouldn’t believe how fast a well stocked store becomes skeletonized by the masses. There will be a “hurricane” in every city and town world wide for about a year and a half. The only flaw in this analogy is that there will be no property damage on a large scale. The toll, however, will be far more devastating.
Once the pandemic is established and the awareness dawns on the general public, there will be chaos. Speaking as a (former) distribution expert, believe me when I tell you, JIT inventories and deliveries, coupled with heavy dependancy on imports will bring this country to it’s knees in no time flat. More specifically, in about a week. The supply chains will be disrupted, aborted and otherwise diverted and replinishment may or may not happen in a timely manner.
You are right. You probably won’t get the flu by day 50, but what a hollow victory for you if you can’t get what you need to live.
So we’re not just preparing for panflu, are we?
This is important, I think. It means we can offer this scenario (“offer” as in “bring a horse to water”, yes): “if panflu, then disruption”. Others will be able to say: “if peakoil, then disruption”. And yet others will be able to say other things. So we may be able to join forces around the “then disruption” part. This would be more palatable to more people, maybe?
And others will be more willing to think of all this in terms of “positives”: not “running away from disruption”, but “moving forward to building reliance”.
Whatever works.
In any case, I think it’s wisest to go for simple, effective things in a global scale. Things that can be applied locally. The wiki is a perfect example of global help for local action.
panflu is different from hurricanes. Viruses don’t attack cars, houses,…
country to its knees in a week
no. Even after years of a Webster-like pandemic USA would still be better
off than -say- today’s Indonesia.
When there is no disruption until day 50, then why shouldn’t I get
what I need ? Demand will increase, but production will increase too.
Reduce on luxury like cars,meat,clothing,big houses. Rice and beans
would do. They will be expensive but still affordable. Probably cheaper
than storing costs for years of Tuna under your bed or water in
your pool.
Lugon, why should I prep for hurricanes, when I live in a non-hurricane zone ?
(your other post will be answered later)
YOU MUST BEGIN NOW. PERIOD - you have NO arguement. You will not have time - Even Nabarro said it - when the first case of effecient H2H appears, it will happen like - BOOM. FAST.
First mention of Pandemic has started will send the public into a panioc buying mode. Shelves will empty. People will stay home out of fear. the breakdown will begin and be rapid. This was THE message of the Conference.
To wait is to risk Your life, Your families, Your neighbors - dont even think of knocking on your neighbors door - they will be just as scared as you are and may be armed.
If you do not understand what is being said….. or you choose not to head the warnings… nothing anyone says will change your mind now… you may very well die because of your inaction and may also cause the death of others.
BEGIN YOUR PREP NOW.
Many Cats, I love your posts & understand the position you’re in when you answer questions regarding vet meds for humans. But I’m questioning this from an earlier link to this thread that you had said in answer to my question about what, if anything was new about the report from Goju : Many Cats – at 01:15 said: “I’m-workin’: I have a family full of folks who think this is “no big deal.” Anything some of us can get to show others that these corporations are serioulsy looking into AI, whether for their own internal purposes or to help alert the public, lends more legitimacy to our urgings to prepare. I would rather not see my family caught short as regards preps and hope that this may help.”
I have the same problem — just this week my family finally decided to settle on the term “crazy as a loon” for my prep attempts. But the impact of the first part of this thread was that an important meeting had led to important results that could be considered a big step in us being able to have PROOF for doubting family that big names were supporting the prepping. ACM and I both expressed concern that we were missing something and asked for clarification about that because we just didn’t see any difference in the news from what we already had.
So this AM I went to the Walgreen’s and the Campbell’s sites & have to report that I found nothing. If I were to stress to family that these two companies were ‘serious’ about Bird Flu, my family would laugh me out of town, or just lock me up because there’s no ‘generalized’ information on either site about preparation for ANYthing, there’s not even a mention of Bird Flu anywhere.
So just because they were invited to a meeting and actually showed up, any comments they may have made that were for OUR case or even any indication that they are leaning toward taking this seriously, are still not available anywhere on their websites (yet) and it seems that if they were serious, they would have SOMEthing there. But there is no inkling that they are serious about anything other than how to make money selling the things we’re buying so I don’t see them as being any help to me for “proof”.
So I have to disagree that there was anything positive or different coming from the meeting. I know this is NOT the news thread, but I’d hoped that because several folks were getting excited, I could be shown why this meeting was so important, but no one’s come up with anything tangible, only that we should all ‘feel good’ that reps from these companies attended this meeting.
Please understand that I’ve been prepping for years & ridicule of me is part of the process, and it’s unlikely that anything I show family will turn them around. I’m NOT like anonymous and his comments were downright scary, but I can’t help but hope there’s something that would attract some family member’s eye and would have loved sending a family member (she who officially named me “loon”) something from Walgreens, since she works in the regional office of a large food chain in the SE.
At this point, what you said next in your earlier post seems to be the most reliable statement that has been made about the meeting: ‘Granted the next argument to overcome will be “Well 3M sells masks and Campbell’s soup is a prep. item, so these companies are only looking to increase their bottom lines” but it is something that some of these groups are making plans for their own infrastructure.’
So I’m anyone who has the answer, who said they were making plans for anything other than higher targeted sales? What did they say? Where is it printed so I can show my family?
Your last sentence read “Every little bit helps when you have to try to convince others of the real threat that H5N1 poses.” is very true & that’s what I’m asking for — us common folk are looking for something concrete to show besides the feel-good gov’t websites, etc. Several folks on this thread got all excited about something new happening. I’m so frustrated that no one has been able to show me WHERE the big companies have expressed any approach, much less a new one. We have Goju’s notes on things and I agree with his stand that time is running out, but what else is there?
What am I still missing this morning to show that these companies are taking this seriously?
NoFluingAround at 05:18
‘’and DO NOT let anonymous know where you live, for he will be the
first in line to commandeer your preps when TSHTF :o)’‘
or she might cheat you by bartering what you wrote you need.
Or send you spam.Yuk!
The companies present at the conference had One agenda - to keep their comapnies running under pandemic conditions.
These compnaies do not care if you live or die - except to take your money for their products or services so dont expect them to be posting on their websites - they are not in the business of prep - they are in biz to make money.
I used to have H5N1 pandemic prep info links in my email signature - i lost clients so i took it off. I am not in the biz of preparing anyone other than me and mine. I am in biz to take your money.
Goju I can understand that you lost clients — it’s a sore subject for most people-we’re losing friends and family members’ respect every day because we try to approach them with this info. And I appreciate you taking the time to clarify that the companies represented had no interest in Bird Flu, other than to make money.
That’s NOT what I want to tell my family members so I don’t guess there was anything that was unusually new from your report of this meeting other than the fact that BECAUSE these companies seem to care less we should care more — it continued to confirmed that we’re ‘on our own’. Hope I’ve got it right now. Nothing new or helpful from the companies themselves, just gut reaction from seeing them go through motions without real interest other than profit….except for the Red Cross lady you described.
I appreciate you taking the whole day for this meeting, it must have been exceedingly frustrating for you, knowing what you do, to listen & ask sensible questions and get pretty much just canned answers.
Thanks for your effort!
Goju, I do prep. Just food is not first priority. Convincing friends is important or getting medicaments, planning for quarantine or isolation. Although my government does not tell me to prep. My neighbors ? Most people here are farmers, they would presumably be happy when they can sell their pigs and chicken BEFORE panflu starts. If the US-government recommends storing food to individuals, then why don’t they buy and store it publically as strategic reserve ?
anonymous-Please choose a handle. May I suggest one? Like “NO FEAR!”. : )
Bird Guano – at 02:06 … many grocery distributors already have pandemic distribution plans, with trigger points. Their plan is to hold the food at the distribution warehouses, not in the stores. There are also written plans for rationing on items from the get-go.
Do you have a citation for this? Not doubting you — I’d just like to see the source documents so I can build my own arguments for prepping.
Thanks in advance,
First the companies are in biz to make money - if their employees get sick and stay home, they have to learn HOW to make money - in this case “stay in biz” during a pandemic.
This is the first step for many of them. They too like you are unprepared and are beginning to understand the consequences for being so. They will first take care of themselves….. once they can do that they may take care of you and me - remember - we are all grownups now and they are not our mommy and daddy.
Anon- Right on food not being first priority - it is WATER then food, then meds, then everything else.
I cannot say it enough - START NOW.
anonymous – at 08:01: panflu is different from hurricanes. Viruses don’t attack cars, houses …
I was of exactly the same opinion. If you look at this pandemic wave in a spreadsheet, and do something similar in your own computer, you’ll see that at any one point in time, only a small percentage of the population fall ill.
Each row in the spreadsheet is a week.
Now, we could also add a few columns to this spreadsheet:
That’s why, at least in my mind, the future is not simple (a few elements, straight-forward relationships) and it’s not even complicated (many elements, straight-forward relationships), but it is complex (many elements, twisted relationships).
A complex system displays a behaviour that is difficult to predict in detail. We’re on our own regarding accurate prediction. My feeling, after looking at (part of the) many elements involved, is that things have the potential to become really ugly even if the case fatality rate is not too high. I do hope I’m wrong. And I’m acting on the elements at hand so that the “complex equation” will be move in a beneficial direction.
My suggestion? Look at the whole picture. Break things a little here and a little there. Assume a 1% “panic” and a 5% “fear” and a 70% “concern” very soon. Those with “concern” may fear those with “panic”. A couple with a baby may not rush to buy diapers today, but they may do so if they go to the store and find there are no diapers for two days.
I say “may”, and hope it will not happen, but that’s the possibility we’re planning for.
And no, I don’t say “prep for hurricanes”. The things I mentioned are all global thingies: panflu, peakoil, and not many more. Come to think of it, you may want to include hurricanes if in your mind they are linked to global warming. It’s always your choice. I don’t know what the future will bring.
Its time to stop preping for peakoil, global warming, terrorism, supervolcanoes and hurricanes.
Prep for the worst pandemic ever seen in modern times. And do it NOW
Also, look at what happened with USA and UK (and is still happening) and terrorism threats. A cascade of effects on tourist industry and a few other things. Multiply by whichever factor you’re easy with.
My puter broke down 5 or 6 days ago,and I just got back on this morning.I am having alot of trouble coming up with a current threat assesment here.It seems things have slowed down in Indo.Am I reading this right?News from yesterday and today seem to say things haven’t exploded over there.I read on Dr. Bobs site he seems less worried.I am trying to decide on my church and school volunteer schedules and just not sure what to do.
read my thread about the safe America meeting. Indo is a reporting mess - not even the UN and WHO knows whats going on there. Nigeria and Egypt worry the UN the most China is not giving out info latest study in Cambodia shows NO H5N1 antibodies in poultry farmers - meaning NO mild infections - meaning H5N1 is a deadly killer.
Keep on course … this monster is knocking on our door and will soon pick the lock and find your sofa in your living room. Ya wanna get cozy with it?
anonymous (NO FEAR!)-And finally, regard the perilous state of the National and World economies and how leveraged (indebted) and unbalanced they are, both on the “macro” as well as the “micro” level. This topic has been discussed at length through many threads over many months. Even a “garden variety” pandemic could trigger a global depression when you consider the disruption to “consumption” which powers one-half to two-thirds of most nations’ GDP. That knock-off effect alone could create some serious disruption in supplies (and civil disorder).
I ain’t preaching Hell and Damnation, all I am saying is that we are living in a fool’s paradise (and it was lovely while it lasted).
Goju, why shouldn’t it be possible to get water in a pandemic ?
(except you live in a desert)
Why shouldn’t it be possible to get water when the pandemic
breaks out in Asia but hasn’t reached your town yet ?
Lugon, we do have experience with previous desasters.
Food and water usually is not the main problem.
At least not in 1st world countries.
Malachi, no dramatic changes in the last 6 days.
…although…what’s with the Chinese pigs ?
Wiki flashback- Didn’t a previous thread mention that as TS gets closer to HTF we may see posts here that falsely minimize the threat? Posts that distract for the purpose of getting the conversation off topic? Possible posts from TPTB?
Anonymous- I do respect your right to express your opinion. I wonder who you are and what your motivation is for your posts. Then again, I may not be able to handle the truth.
Go ahead, call me crazy for prepping, if it makes you feel good. I’ve been called crazy for less pedestrian acts. Now I need to go adjust my tin foil hat.
Your preaching to the chior here Goju.I will keep on course and the only ones I want to cozy up on the couch with is my dear family.I did read your thread and wow…Thanks for that great work and info.The part about H5N1 spreading thru the schools is actually my worst fear and the reason I am compelled to read this site daily.I feel very much like I need to be ahead of this thing to get my kids out in time.That has pretty much become my new job.
I’ve been watching this virus for 3 years. After seeing what has been happening for the past 5 months the debate on if a pandemic is going to happen is over. IMHO.
We need to be looking at the repercussions. The biggest threat that I see from all of this is the collapse of the electrical grids.
No organization / company can function when 30% to 40% of its people aren’t there, and the remaining ones are under extreme duress. The greatest blackout in North American history occurred on August 14th 2003. The investigation ultimately found that one utility “had inadequate staff”.
The result: More than 508 generating units at 265 power plants shut down. Including 22 nuclear plants. 50,000,000 people without power.
“Some essential services remained in operation in most of these areas, although backup generation in some cities was not up to the task. The phone systems remained operational in most areas; however, the increased demand by people phoning home left many circuits overloaded. Water systems in several cities lost pressure forcing boil water advisory. Cellular telephones experienced significant service disruptions as cellular transmission towers were overloaded with the sudden increase in volume of calls. Major cellular providers continued to operate on standby generator power. Television and radio stations mostly remained on the air with the help of backup generators which remained online throughout the blackout.”
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_North_America_blackout
It takes a lot of coordination within the industry to get everything back up and running again. i.e. A nuclear power plant isn’t self starting. It requires quite a bit of outside power to get it functional again.
So don’t yell at the kids for leaving a light on. You will soon miss that little annoyance.
anonymous at 9:26: Most water plants have a week or so of chlorine and have to get frequent deliveries to make the water safe to drink. (Chlorine is dangerous to keep around and doesn’t store well.) If chlorine supplies get interrupted, you might have water, but it would be unsafe to use unless boiled or otherwise disinfected, assuming you do not get it from your own well. (If you have your own well, then the question shifts to electricity supply.) In general, I would approach the question of preps like Pascal’s wager. Several hundred years ago the French math whiz and philospher asked himself if he should believe in God. He figured, if there is a God and I do not believe, I face everlasting torment. If there is not a God and I believe, then I am “good for nothing.” Figure the losses either way and decide.
To All: Based on his/her question about water shortage, Anonymous does not have the knowledge that we have. Maybe he/she is new here, maybe a is a shill or intended distratcion, or maybe simply someone who will someday gather all the data and decide to take this seriously. We are not wackos or survivalists on this thread. We are concerned citizens of the world who see a serious threat that is likely to happen at some point and are trying tobe ready to handle it. While I read his posts, I do not think he has the knowledge to make many of the statements he/she makes. So do not take your eye of the ball unless some harder facts are presented
Back to prepping.
Infomass, I have enough chlorine to disinfect 1000 gallons of water.
NJ Jeeper, so you have some secret knowledge about water and don’t
share it with us ? That’s irresponsable.
anonymous (NO FEAR!)-The smooth, seamless, surface impressions of civilization such as they are in Western industrialized countries can be quite seductive. We live high up in the stratosphere perched on the peak of a technological pyramid. The view is breathtaking, but God forbid that a few key blocks become misplaced. And that is what Panflu threatens to do, no ifs, ands, or buts.
You might want to check out this document The Biological Threat to U.S. Water Supplies: Toward a National Water Security Policy
Maybe I’m to trusting, but I don’t think a “real” TPTB would be here to disuade us from prepping and informing others.
We have had some successes and yes we are on the radar but in the scheme of things were just one more cog; perhaps an annoyance when we push for answers that they don’t have and probably never will have. Mainly because there are no hard and fast answers for this. We can think scenerios all we want and what we will do to overcome, but we all need to be able to think on our feet and quickly make changes as the situatio warrents.
They and we know from experiance that the sheeple will not pay attention but later-lay blame for others not taking care of them and preparing more. It takes STRONG personal MORAL responsibilty to do the RIGHT thing even in the face of naysayers, bean counters and whatnot.
Doubts and other frame of references are welcome because it helps us to dig deeper to come up with better answers.
We need to remember to tell/show newbies where they can get the basic information for more understanding of why water may not be available, other then chlorine, there are of course Elecritity issues, worker shortages, transpertation issues ( I read earlier that someone said no shortages of truck drivers. I work in the recruitment industry…MAJOR shortages of truck drivers abound!) I suppose in the case of a major pandemic the laws and rules would relax on licensing for transport but not everyone can just jump in a semi and start driving, or a train those take certian talents and in the learning curve how many drivers will get lost, dump the load due to accidents not to mention the risks involved with getting sick and hijacked by desperate hungry people or those that intend to sell items on the black market.
My happy thoughts for the day : )
…plus the lack of fuel available to run the trucks and trains… and the workers to load the trucks and trains on either end… and the farmers to grow the stuff to put in them since there is no fuel for their farm equipment and all the spare parts to keep that equipment going are made in Japan or China… if they or their family members aren’t sick for a while
prepperbabe – at 09:33
“Wiki flashback- Didn’t a previous thread mention that as TS gets closer to HTF we may see posts here that falsely minimize the threat? Posts that distract for the purpose of getting the conversation off topic? Possible posts from TPTB?”
“Anonymous- I do respect your right to express your opinion. I wonder who you are and what your motivation is for your posts. Then again, I may not be able to handle the truth.”
IMO, anonymous sounds suspiciously like “gs”.
The transportation and utility systems in nearly every region of the world, including the good ole USA are brittle. They are completely interlaced and a failure in one sector can start a cascade of failures in others. No electricty = no pumps for petroleum. No petroleum = no transport of coal to power plants. No drivers, pilots, tug captains and railroad engineers = no nothing.
People have no idea how close we come to disaster on a regular basis. Katrina gave us just a little taste of the bitter herb when she knocked out the oil platforms, refineries and pumping stations in the Gulf region. Next thing you know, there are empty gas stations in New Jersey. The railroads and water transportation systems are maxxed out. Every over-the-road truck I see has a big sign on the back advertising for new drivers. A railroad problem in the Midwest limited the amount of coal that flowed from the open-pit mines to power plants in the east, and supplies got tight.
Combine a panflu outbreak with any widespread severe weather event, like an ice storm, blizzard or hurricane and it will get real interesting. It took a month or more for some folks to get their light back on in New England after a big ice storm a few years back. Imagine if there are 40% or more fewer utility people how long it would take. California is under constant threat of brownouts and rolling blackouts due to electricity shortages.
The point is, Pollyannish rose-colored glasses approaches to personal preparation (or a lack thereof) for disaster emergencies, be it from weather, pandemics, technological disasters or acts of war is IMHO the height of irresponsibility.
well said Sarge.
Also, referring to the Indonesians… they will probably be better off than us in the western world if there is a pandemic. They have villages already nearly shut off from tohers due to terrain. They do not rely on “outside help” like we do. each village has its own water and food supplies. they are much more self sufficient than many westerners. we have modern medical assistance in our favor, but for how long before the system gets overrun? the west will see far more “collateral deaths” than 3rd world countries. all over the world, the same % of deaths will occur depending on which strain of virus hits a community, but the other deaths from starvation, cold, thirst, etc. will be more in the west than in these more primitive communites.
TreasureIslandGal at 11:14-Yes, you are absolutely correct. This “dog” (the poor, downtrodden, primitive) will have his day. Once the dying is done, their highly cohesive society will quickly reformulate and live off what is at hand. And there will be plenty because of the high mortality. Actually, many of those societies, medium to longterm, may fare much better than they would have otherwise. But it will be at a high cost.
the Sarge, now compare that with the transportation system of 1918… Compare it with the problem of millions of people dying from the virus itself. These are all minor problems compared with the direct health issue. Yes, there will be all sorts of logistic problems. But we will still be much better organized than people were in 1918.
Treas…,MM, they won’t be better off. They can’t afford all these life-saving things like drugs, isolation-rooms, telefones etc. They are less informed than we are. Look at the figures from 1918.
If you are talking about systemic collapse and stuff, let me cross-post some links from the Questions For Dr Inglesby page. Systemic Collapse: Medical Care in the Aftermath of Hurricane Katrina
Also check out Dark Winter Atlantic Storm and the paper from World Economic Forum Pandemic Simulation
Sarge. do you believe it? He is serious.
anonymous, whatever you are ingesting tell me what it is. I want some of it for the third and fourth month of the pandemic.
I appreciate Anonymous’s posts because s/he is giving the kind of responses that many “nonbeleivers” have given me when I talked to them about bird flu. Whether or not it is A’s intention, it is good to have a Devils Advocate to practice with. Unfortantly, I can get plenty of that sort of practice off line. Still, by thinking through his/her answers, I can better counter others objections.
Anonymous is getting too much attention here. Let’s move on. We have better things to do. Let him / her catch up if they want, but they are just denying what we have found out without providing any facts. I think maybe he is not a shill, but surely needs to spend sometime reading the old threads and posts. I have patience with newbies who really want to know and ask quesions, but no patience for this. Even lazy newbies, but not argumentative newbies. I will no longer read or respond to his threads.
anonymous… yes…look at the figures from 1918. Those in the countryside faired far better than city dwellers. “afford all the life-saving things???” -what life saving things do you think will be available? It si the availability, not the affordability that is the issue. The villager has the availability. we in cities will not. unless you are a farmer and the disease occurs during harvest time, you are out of luck to find enough food to last for even 2 months. “less informed” -these people are hearing and seeing more on a daily basis than most westerners are. they are the “target audience”. in fact, these villagers, since they are the “early stricken” are getting immediate care in many cases and still have a high death rate. look at the stats regarding the number of hospital beds and rspirators there are at one time in any hospital…now imagine a pandemic sweeps through your own county and say only 25% of the population gets sick…and needs a respirator within 48 hours of illness onset. -can your local hopsital provide the services needed for all the sick people at once? Will all teh doctors and nurses who know how to use that equipment be available to work themselves?
our biggest weakness is that we are so cocky to think that we are so much better off and more informed. TPTB are telling us to prepare NOW. That every american should have 2 weeks of supplies… this is our forewarning now that IF we were all adhering to, we woul dbe better off than them.-but we are not listening. We aren’t listening, not because of being scared of the gov’t or thinking this virus has something to do with witchcraft, no, the majority of westerners are not adhering because they don’t want to believe the message. They don’t want to think about it. They assume that they will have plenty of notice and can run out to the stores before anyone else to go shopping (and will have the cash on hand at the time). The only problem, is that the other 300 million americans are also thinking the exact same thing.
Prepping is your own decision to undertake or not. Those that prep, right or wrong, would only suffer having extra food on hand if nothing happens. Those that don’t, may die or suffer greatly and unnecessarily.
WOW! Great news… I just did a quick check at my county’s Health Department web site, and boy has it changed in teh last few weeks!!! Her eis the address: http://www.pinellashealth.com/index.asp
Before, not a peep about H5N1. -now, it is front page news and very good information too! I would like to have them indicate how many days/weeks/months of preps to have, but they instead pointed more towards having “more extensive hurricane preps”, and gave lots of realistic examples of what to expect within our county!
This is a huge change in stance for the local gov’t and provides extensive links to the state site, which is also much mor eupdated now than last time I checked back in June!
The site also gives lots of checklists for different groups and businesses to prepare for a pandemic.
Horray Pinellas County and Florida! -finally on board!
see here what sort of prepping helped in 1918.
see here what is recommended
as preparation for the next pandemic.
Food-,water- and masks- storage, gardening, batteries,… is not on the
list of most recommended measures.
It’s a bit of modern hobby of survivalists and flubies
to generate some sort of religion and social team-spirit here.
I’m afraid, we/you are prepping for the wrong things.
NJ Jeeper – at 11:57
I just ignore most of the anonymous posts. It is just too confusing for this old guy to try to keep all the anonymous posters separated. Some anonymous posters are good and caring but I just don’t have the time to figure out who is who. They all look the same to me. If they don’t want to be lumped together with all the other anonymous posters that have given us problems over the years, then they will take a handle – if for no other reason than to help others like me.
Didn’t someone suggest he/she may be a WHO/PTB plant? Looks like it to me.
anonymous – at 11:29
How can you say “But we will still be much better organized than people were in 1918.”
compare the people then, their lifstyle to the people of today.
The big difference is today we have technology, makes life faster, more pleasurable, easy, very easy. Now take the technology away from everyone at pretty much the same time.
Anon, close your eyes and visulize what the AVERAGE persons life is like on a daily basis. Walk in their shoes for the moment.
The alarm goes off, you hit snooze once or twice, flip on the light and head to the bathroom, do your business, flush…brush your teeth, shave, shower, floss..get dressed and primp in front of the mirror (does my butt look big in these pants.) You go to the kitchen and throw in a breakfast sandwich in the microwave or if your lucky you have someone fix you a nice breakfast or you hit the local fast food joint for a sausage biscuit and coffee. The first hour of thier day changes. No lights, No heat, no alarm clock, no water for flushing, shower or teeth..your electric razor doesn’t work, neither does the microwave, oven or drive thru resturant. instead if you planned well you sit on your toliet bucket with kitty litter and garbage bag or run out side to the trench that you made to potty in. You get a bucket of water to wash up in and brush your teeth…if you stored any. You cook on your grill/camping stove or wood burner---if you had the foresite to stock up on charcoal, propane, wood…matches.
This is just the first hour of the day.
1918 people did things differently, we can become more self sufficiant but most people are not there yet.
anonymous…did you read those links yourself???!!! Here is a quick snippit from your own link:
“Although such analyses are beyond the scope of this work, the likelihood of maintaining uninterrupted key societal services (such as law enforcement, food distribution, and utility provision) may improve substantially across this range of reduction in infection incidence. Therefore, the potential massive adverse economic implications of a temporary breakdown may justify extending the expected period of disruption.
We have focused on measures to increase social distance that will consume substantial resources and for which detailed planning is required. To allow quarantined individuals to remain at home, provision must be made for food, water, and medicines to be delivered. This may be achieved through a central system or a neighborhood assistance scheme. For isolation, careful planning and investment would be required so that large facilities can be made operational in time to reduce transmission in the early stages of the epidemic. For anti-virals to be provided efficiently, a dedicated distribution system may be required. A recent review [23] suggests that household quarantine was not successfully implemented on any significant scale during the 1918 city-level epidemics upon which estimates of transmissibility are based [2,4].”
This states that in order for their “plan” to work, people have to SIP for long periods of time, requiring a lot of planning and supplies. This “plan” jsut says that “others” will have to provide those individual items for those in SIP. -that’s why they think the individual doesn’t have to prep those things, their plan thinks that the community will do it for all the individuals. -So, is your own community stockpiling for all of its residents so they can SIP yet?
And your report says that social disruptions will occur (“Therefore, the potential massive adverse economic implications of a temporary breakdown may justify extending the expected period of disruption.”) -in fact, that if you go by their plan, these massive disruptions should last a much longer time in order to keep what limited services there are, somewhat functioning at all and to redue the infection/death rates overall.
the other report really didn’t prove any point you were trying to make…in fact, it just bolsters or side more. what were you trying to gain for your argument by posting that?
dave in Cal- Yep-that’s what I thought-it’s probably gs !(teleFone??):-)
I agree with Dennis C: If anonymous does not even want an alias, ignore him/her. He/she appears not to want to think about all of the obvious holes in his scenarios, and is either cynical or in denial. At worst, we eat some stale food or donate to the food banks. At worst, he starves to death or dies going out when he should stay indoors. Maybe he is right. Probably not. Spend energy on those willing to listen and think. The others are on their own.
RE ignoring Anonymous: Think of all the lurkers who have objections similar to his/hers, who are following this thread and maybe getting their minds expanded…
The problem seems to be that we fear widespread systemic disruptions from a pandemic, and Anonmyous either doesn’t or is convinced there will be time to prepare for the worst before it starts. As has been noted, that’s a very high stakes gamble, in which if you draw the wrong card you can lose more than just a game. Prudence, pure and simple, demands prior preparation.
Bit of back of the napkin sociology:
Agragrian and primitive cultures may ultimately be more resilient in some sense against technological disasters. However, these primitive systems can only support a limited amount of population. The explosion of population worldwide is in no small part the reult of technological and industrial advances. The portion of the population of industrialized countries that is engaged in agriculture - the basic sustainment mechanism, is smaller than at any point in the history of human civilization since we moved out of the hunter-gatherer phase. Therefore, it must follow that without these systems, such a population cannot maintain itself. We cannot turn on a dime and live like the Amish or sustain ourselves for long on victory gardens and canned goods. This is particularly so for the residents of apartment blocks in dense urban cores. Provide a sufficiently prolonged disruption to any of a combination of supporting systems, utilities, transportation, etc., there will be ‘collateral’ deaths. Most immediate is loss of potable water, since many will die of dehyudration or disease in short order. Although most of the contemporary news reports coming out the the New orleans Superdome were later found to be VASTLY overblown, the situation there was still quite grim, and another 48 hours could have meant death for hundreds due primarily to dehydration or by drinking polluted flood water. Ironic, isn’t it, to die for lack of water when you are up to your waste in it?
I’m not sure how much better a primitive culture will survive since many of these are frequently on the knife edge of starvation or disease as routine. In some cases though, their normal isolation and self-sufficiency may save them. This will not apply to large, urbanized and industrialized populations.
So, IMO, the strategy to prolong, or more accurately, delay and ‘flatten out’ a pandemic, spread the effects over time and fight like hell to get an effective treatment, may be the only option, but it’s going to be an extremely bumpy ride.
TG, the countryside was also hit badly in 1918. 3rd world was much worse
than USA: more than 2% of people died worldwide, but only 0.6% in USA.
life-saving things = normal healthcare and drugs. E.g. antibiotics in
a pandemic.
KimT, you question that we are better organized as in 1918 but then
you argue in favour of it. Transporting of food, communication,
equipment will be much better as in 1918, despite all the expected
disruptions. Yes, we will lose some luxury, but we won’t die from that.
TG, the PLOG-paper concentrates on quarantine,isolation,antivirals and contact-tracing. I can’t find that quote now, but food etc. is not the main issue.
Yes, there are disruptions and food-distribution should be organized.
No, my community isn’t doing anything. I expect this problem would be solved when a pandemic starts.
the 1918-report recommends protective sequestration, bold leadership,
while other measures weren’t proven successful. Little water/food problems
in 1918 in USA.
Best of luck anon! I hope that you are right and that other people will prepare and take care of you and all the neccessities of life for you.
Yes today as we live we are better organized. But that is what this is about.The way we have organized our society is dependent on a lot of other things. I was hoping that you could see the big picture in detail and follow the path to where it could lead if one or more essential services were brought down. But I see that you have tremendous faith in TPTB to solve all the problems just in the nick of time, a white knight to save the day. That would be so awesome if that were to be true but at my age I’ve learned not to expect others to save me or have all the answers.
Good Luck with you and yours.
annonymous = troll
anonymous I like you…you’ve got moxy…
…I would even like you more if you would pick a handle so we could follow your trend of thought and debate the issues with you…
…rather than have your posts go into the disjointed bin with all the other anonymouses comments.
Thanks…keep on questioning…that’s science after all!!
anonymous, the reports I have read said that one of the main reasons more americans lived was that we had a primarily agrarian society at that time. the virus hit america right at harvest time. most americans had pantries then and did canning. most of the “least affected communites” in america were rural and enacted quarantines and restrictions on public gatherings and school, for at least 3 weeks, and up to 6 months. cities were hit worse than countryside.-just as they would be today. very few people anywhere had access to antibiotics at the height of the pandemic.
3rd world predominently hit worse during 2nd wave due to timing of localized crops, not due to medical advances. in fact, it was proven that many “3rd world” treatments faired far better than the “modern” treatments of the time. Also, some races faired better than others and it was thought due to genetics, not location.
“waiting until it starts” is way too late to try and think about how your population is going to get clean water. You can only do without water for a few days, and even your papers are talking weeks to months of supplies needed.
True, SIP and bold leadership to enforce it were successsful -the only things that really worked. That is exactly what we are advocating here. BUT the only way SIP will work is if people don’t have to leave from their homes to provide food and water. A SIP is a planned event. Food and water was not an issue in successful places because they were able to SIP and have those things. It was in areas that couldn’t SIP that there were problems… like many cities. And why couldn’t they SIP? -because people had to leave their homes to get food and water…and TPTB were not ruthless enough to stop them from doing that. (PLUS, remember that in older USA, water and food availability was the main reasons for population in certain areas. If there wasn’t water nearby, people didn’t live there. If food couldn’t be produced or transported readily to an area, people didn’t live there. Today, we live in these hot, cold, elevated, dry areas now with the “conveniences” of pumped irrigation and AC and Heat.)
Bottom line is that we agree that SIP is the answer to thwart death from the disease itself. We disagree on how that should/would be accomplished by the individual.
I’m glad anonymous is posting. He represents all those folks that have a lot of questions and faith in the powers that be. He brings up the issues that s/he is aware of. Maybe we are bringin more issues to light that were not previously thought of. In any case, it is from the back and forth debates that the many observers and lurkers build their own opinions and do their own risk assessment. If all we ever did is agree 100% on this site, it would do little to broaden the minds of any of us involved with this. Ultimately, knowledge is power.
TreasureIslandGal. Well said!! /:0)
Anonymous @ 13:02 No, my community isn’t doing anything. I expect this problem would be solved when a pandemic starts.
By whom?? the government at both federal and state levels have repeatedly said “you’re on your own” we can’t and won’t prep for community or individual needs in a pandemic…
Most communities leaders have chosen to ignore this and are still waiting to be told what to do… From your comment about your community not doing anything I’d say you are in the same boat.
Your assumption that all the communities in the country are going to stockpile the necessary water, food and medications for their citizens within this 50 day window and that our JIT delivery system will manage to produce & deliver them is erroroneous IMHO. If you’re comfortable basing your decisions on that assumption, great..
I’m not. I have other assumptions about how community preparations are being or would be handled and have made the decision to take care of my own preparations. You’re welcome to my share of whatever your community preps.
The UN & Red Cross at the SafeAmerica conference have told us to quit playing tabletop games and start implementing your plan (if you have one) NOW…
Back to the topic of the thread.. my PPF just went from a 5–6 to a 7–8.
TreasureIslandGal – at 13:45
You are right. Sometimes I lose patience. My apologies anonymous.
The last place I’d want to be, just before the blow up of a pandemic is in line at a grocery store. I’d much rather be snug here at home catching up on laundry, and running the vacuum.
Long thread, needs to be continued here
Last relevant posts copied to new thread
Knowledge is power, but wisdom is needed for survival. Part of wisdom is knowing what we cannot know. To bet one’s life and the lives of one’s family on an optimistic scenario is as foolish as being certain that an awful future awaits us. Simple prudence would dictate that we be modest about our ability to know the future and take reasonable provisions against plausible outcomes. We have discussed in FW if the infection rate will be 25% or 75%, if the CFR will be 5% or 50%. Reasonable people can argue for any of those numbers. Given that range of uncertainty, does it make sense to hope for the best and prepare for nothing? I respect anonymous’s right to post but not Tom DVM’s equanimity about the productivity of it.
Dennis in Colorado – at 08:49
Bird Guano – at 02:06 … many grocery distributors already have pandemic distribution plans, with trigger points. Their plan is to hold the food at the distribution warehouses, not in the stores. There are also written plans for rationing on items from the get-go.
Do you have a citation for this? Not doubting you — I’d just like to see the source documents so I can build my own arguments for prepping.
Thanks in advance,
Yes but I’m not near that computer, and won’t be for some time.
I posted the link here in a discussion about a month back.
It’s a pdf white paper from a major grocery distribution company.
I also posted a link to an extensive discussion I had on it at curevents last year.
anonymous, you have a right to question our beliefs but I do not believe that you have shaken them. Thousands of hours have been spent at this site and elsewhere researching the effects of an H5N1 pandemic. We have many experts here. I have been studying this disease for 2 years. In the beginning of my adjustment reaction, I asked questions like yours. I read extensively on the 1918 pandemic. I tried to tell myself that this one would be no different in its effects. As my knowledge grew I came to realize that this will not be like the 1918 pandemic. At this point in time, H5N1 is a much more powerful virus with devastating capabilities. The CFR is currently very high in places like Indonesia. I expect our economy to come to a standstill when we our hit by the pandemic. JIT supplies may very likely become unavailable. I do believe that truck drivers and HCW will be either home sick or afraid to work in many, many cases. No amount of money will change or prevent this from happening. Our police, fire, EMS and military will become sick also. I don’t believe that utilities will continue to function over a long period of time. Our world is mostly run with computers, unlike 1918. What will happen when there is no power to run these?
I hope that through learning more about the issues involved you will modify your current beliefs in time to help prepare your self and those you love. Please consider SIP as an insurance policy.
We are all in this together and I wish you luck.
Friends, The title of this thread is ‘Current Threat Assessment’- not ‘Let’s Try to Convince Someone Who Obviously Wants to Bullsh** and Waste Our Time and Thread Length’. I’m surprised you’re willing to let this thread be hijacked. I just read a thread where the posters just skipped right over and around this nonsense. I don’t need a “devil’s advocate”. This used to be a good discussion thread…… Don’t bother to flame me, I’m off this thread
KimT – at 10:32 “It takes STRONG personal MORAL responsibilty to do the RIGHT thing even in the face of naysayers, bean counters and whatnot”. Thanks. One for the “Great Quotes Thread”.
TG, I never heard about that crops-argument in 1918. Do you have a referrence ? You seem to be right about the rural areas. I found it here with referrence to Rice1988,Johnson2000,Aman1990,Mamelund1998. Although Barry writes that western countries did better _because_ of their urban population which had gained some immunity through extended previous exposure. I can’t imagine problems with water, where I live. You could SIP and get goods delivered to your place by people with protective equipment.Not so cheap, probably, though. Or get preotective cloths by yourself.