Forum: A Current Threat Assessment VII

Discussion continued from here

TreasureIslandGal – at 13:39 anonymous, the reports I have read said that one of the main reasons more americans lived was that we had a primarily agrarian society at that time. the virus hit america right at harvest time. most americans had pantries then and did canning. most of the “least affected communites” in america were rural and enacted quarantines and restrictions on public gatherings and school, for at least 3 weeks, and up to 6 months. cities were hit worse than countryside.-just as they would be today. very few people anywhere had access to antibiotics at the height of the pandemic.

3rd world predominently hit worse during 2nd wave due to timing of localized crops, not due to medical advances. in fact, it was proven that many “3rd world” treatments faired far better than the “modern” treatments of the time. Also, some races faired better than others and it was thought due to genetics, not location.

“waiting until it starts” is way too late to try and think about how your population is going to get clean water. You can only do without water for a few days, and even your papers are talking weeks to months of supplies needed.

True, SIP and bold leadership to enforce it were successsful -the only things that really worked. That is exactly what we are advocating here. BUT the only way SIP will work is if people don’t have to leave from their homes to provide food and water. A SIP is a planned event. Food and water was not an issue in successful places because they were able to SIP and have those things. It was in areas that couldn’t SIP that there were problems… like many cities. And why couldn’t they SIP? -because people had to leave their homes to get food and water…and TPTB were not ruthless enough to stop them from doing that. (PLUS, remember that in older USA, water and food availability was the main reasons for population in certain areas. If there wasn’t water nearby, people didn’t live there. If food couldn’t be produced or transported readily to an area, people didn’t live there. Today, we live in these hot, cold, elevated, dry areas now with the “conveniences” of pumped irrigation and AC and Heat.)

Bottom line is that we agree that SIP is the answer to thwart death from the disease itself. We disagree on how that should/would be accomplished by the individual.

TreasureIslandGal – at 13:45

I’m glad anonymous is posting. He represents all those folks that have a lot of questions and faith in the powers that be. He brings up the issues that s/he is aware of. Maybe we are bringin more issues to light that were not previously thought of. In any case, it is from the back and forth debates that the many observers and lurkers build their own opinions and do their own risk assessment. If all we ever did is agree 100% on this site, it would do little to broaden the minds of any of us involved with this. Ultimately, knowledge is power.

Tom DVM – at 13:48

TreasureIslandGal. Well said!! /:0)

Eduk8or – at 13:51

Anonymous @ 13:02 No, my community isn’t doing anything. I expect this problem would be solved when a pandemic starts.

By whom?? the government at both federal and state levels have repeatedly said “you’re on your own” we can’t and won’t prep for community or individual needs in a pandemic…

Most communities leaders have chosen to ignore this and are still waiting to be told what to do… From your comment about your community not doing anything I’d say you are in the same boat.

Your assumption that all the communities in the country are going to stockpile the necessary water, food and medications for their citizens within this 50 day window and that our JIT delivery system will manage to produce & deliver them is erroroneous IMHO. If you’re comfortable basing your decisions on that assumption, great..

I’m not. I have other assumptions about how community preparations are being or would be handled and have made the decision to take care of my own preparations. You’re welcome to my share of whatever your community preps.

The UN & Red Cross at the SafeAmerica conference have told us to quit playing tabletop games and start implementing your plan (if you have one) NOW…

Back to the topic of the thread.. my PPF just went from a 5–6 to a 7–8.

Carrey in VA – at 13:55

The last place I’d want to be, just before the blow up of a pandemic is in line at a grocery store. I’d much rather be snug here at home catching up on laundry, and running the vacuum.

Friends, The title of this thread is ‘Current Threat Assessment’- not ‘Let’s Try to Convince Someone Who Obviously Wants to Bullsh** and Waste Our Time and Thread Length’. I’m surprised you’re willing to let this thread be hijacked. I just read a thread where the posters just skipped right over and around this nonsense. I don’t need a “devil’s advocate”. This used to be a good discussion thread…… Don’t bother to flame me, I’m off this thread.

KimT – at 10:32 It takes STRONG personal MORAL responsibilty to do the RIGHT thing even in the face of naysayers, bean counters and whatnot

hmm seems silly to abandon things at this point, please though anonymous, address the issue of the current CFR? not the 1918 data

Ocean - on one hand, I do agree that trying to convince anon is like trying to convinve an alcoholic he/she has a problem. You can talk and talk until you’re blue in the face, but until that person “hits rock bottom” they are unwilling to accept the problem and the role they play in it. Anon’s rock bottom will be when the we are in full crisis mode, hospitals are exploding with dead and dying and there’s no food on the shelves.

On the other hand, one of the main benefits of the wiki is the diversity of opinion and knowledge. As (I think) BB siad, anon has “moxy.” I didn’t have time to read all the posts but I didn’t see any glaring peronal insults, etc. that have plagued other hijacked threads. In time, he’ll tire of the game and/or wikians will tire of trying to convince a non-believer.

Friends, I take back what I said about staying off this thread. I DO think it’s a good thread- if we stay on topic. Anyway, flame away if you care to- I’m getting tougher!

KimT- I wanted to add that your quote was appropriate here and would be good for the Great Quotes Thread, but I got “ítchy post finger’. :-)

Personally, my PPF has not raised as to whether or not this will happen, but the timing of within the next year, vs. 3 years has. Plus, it is higher because I am amazed at how few people take it seriously still and fear that the whole USA may be looking like the New Orleans population after 5 days… desperate and waiting. -but in this case, there won’t be anyone coming to the rescue.

I’m at a 10 that it will occur within 3 years. A 7 that it will be in the next year. A 4 that it will be in the next 6 months.

I will be very happy if it doesn’t ever happen…or is stopped in its tracks. But, if not this, it will be something eventually in my lifetime.

So it doesn’t get lost in the din

Bird Guano – at 14:06

Dennis in Colorado – at 08:49

Bird Guano – at 02:06 … many grocery distributors already have pandemic distribution plans, with trigger points. Their plan is to hold the food at the distribution warehouses, not in the stores. There are also written plans for rationing on items from the get-go.

Do you have a citation for this? Not doubting you — I’d just like to see the source documents so I can build my own arguments for prepping.

Thanks in advance,

Yes but I’m not near that computer, and won’t be for some time.

I posted the link here in a discussion about a month back.

It’s a pdf white paper from a major grocery distribution company.

I also posted a link to an extensive discussion I had on it at curevents last year.

I downloaded that PDF it was encouraging

LauraB – at 14:27

Ocean - on one hand, I do agree that trying to convince anon is like trying to convinve an alcoholic he/she has a problem. You can talk and talk until you’re blue in the face, but until that person “hits rock bottom” they are unwilling to accept the problem and the role they play in it. Anon’s rock bottom will be when the we are in full crisis mode, hospitals are exploding with dead and dying and there’s no food on the shelves.

I don’t attempt to convince anyone.

The facts are in evidence. The interpretation of those facts are the only thing in question.

However, they are not in question for me.

For anon and his defenders of irrationality, the only thing I ask as a public safety professional is to leave identification with the body when the time comes.

until I saw that it too was based on the 1918 CFR

these days if someone starts quoting 1918… I pretty much know they’re dealing in bad data

A Current Threat Assessment

Demographics of influenza A/H5N1 in humans

http://tinyurl.com/h2l9a

If you look at the chart above, last year from November to May, there were big jumps in cases.

I can’t help but wonder what we are in store for this year? Should a threat assessment take these months into consideration?

(oops, my last post was cut off by the thread change, so I am posting it here)

anonymous, you have a right to question our beliefs but I do not believe that you have shaken them. Thousands of hours have been spent at this site and elsewhere researching the effects of an H5N1 pandemic. We have many experts here. I have been studying this disease for 2 years. In the beginning of my adjustment reaction, I asked questions like yours. I read extensively on the 1918 pandemic. I tried to tell myself that this one would be no different in its effects. As my knowledge grew I came to realize that this will not be like the 1918 pandemic. At this point in time, H5N1 is a much more powerful virus with devastating capabilities. The CFR is currently very high in places like Indonesia. I expect our economy to come to a standstill when we our hit by the pandemic. JIT supplies may very likely become unavailable. I do believe that truck drivers and HCW will be either home sick or afraid to work in many, many cases. No amount of money will change or prevent this from happening. Our police, fire, EMS and military will become sick also. I don’t believe that utilities will continue to function over a long period of time. Our world is mostly run with computers, unlike 1918. What will happen when there is no power to run these?

I hope that through learning more about the issues involved you will modify your current beliefs in time to help prepare your self and those you love. Please consider SIP as an insurance policy.

We are all in this together and I wish you luck.

Hmm… This thread reminds me of a conversation that I just had this morning with one of my best friends. She has 2 children, and she is not in any way preparing. She actually brought up BirdFlu this morning. She had the exact same arguments as anonymous, except of course, that she added in the fact that the CDC is still at level 3 and that there is no EMPIRICAL evidence of H2H transmission.

On the surface, she is right, but today she wanted a little more convincing than normal. Today, there was a little bit of fear there, and we were at a ‘teachable moment.’ We searched for a few articles on line, and I lost her.

After the third official source said to prepare for 2 weeks, she was no longer interested. She looked at me and said, ‘Well, I’m good. I’ve got that much food.’ The subject was closed. In her defense, I will say that she does keep a ton of food on hand, but she woulnd’t get off of the MSM websites to hear the message that she needed to be prepared for longer.

I just felt like crying. My own current threat assessment has increased here lately with news of the infected pigs in Java and in China. What little news trickles out of Indonesia is disturbing. Knowing China, S Korea and N Korea experienced HEAVY flooding last month only increases my concerns.

Anonymous - I admire your moxie. No one has a crystal ball here. We can argue about the when or the if of a pandemic forever, but our past and our history will not change, and we don’t need a crystal ball to learn from those. This planet has about 3 pandemics every 100 years. Our planet reacts to climatic changes with violent weather and with viruses. IMHO, we had a chance to dodge the bullet, but we lost it when the mega-tsunami hit more than 5,000 miles of coastline in 2004. We keep losing it with every cyclone that hits China and with every landslide that hits N Korea.

Pandemics have shaped our past and will continue to shape our future. When the disaster strikes, the time for planning and preparation have passed…

anonymous, from your last post on the last thread…

Look at all the case documents for the 2nd wave in America and the “locations that did best”. I looked at them and all of them had “start times” of Sep/Oct for the 2nd (worst) wave in America. In America, that is harvest time, in fact, just after it. So farmers were able to bring in the crops just before it hit here. -just common sense, not from a specific paper.

Supposedly the virus took about 5 months to travel the world back then. A 5-month shift in either direction puts the disease outside of major crop time for the african or asian countries at that time, who supposedly suffered the most. Collateral deaths could have been also caused by starvation, or the loss of the main food providers (healthiest ages) within a family, thus unabel to provide for young children and elderly needs.

TG, I never heard about that crops-argument in 1918. Do you have a referrence ? You seem to be right about the rural areas. I found it here with referrence to Rice1988,Johnson2000,Aman1990,Mamelund1998. Although Barry writes that western countries did better _because_ of their urban population which had gained some immunity through extended previous exposure. I can’t imagine problems with water, where I live. You could SIP and get goods delivered to your place by people with protective equipment.Not so cheap, probably, though. Or get preotective cloths by yourself.

ST, you should at least, remotely, consider the possibility that I could be right and you wrong. I was correct with all the disputed issues here so far, as I can see. (50 days,desinfect water,3rd world in 1918,..) I provided some links to recommendations by scientists. I still wait for a link to that study which recommends individual stockpiling of water or food now. Of course, it can’t hurt a lot but is it necessary ? Does it deserve that much attention that flubies assign to it here ? Other things look more important to me and in the expert papers I have seen.

Spok at 14:41 “If you look at the chart above, last year from November to May, there were big jumps in cases. I can’t help but wonder what we are in store for this year? Should a threat assessment take these months into consideration?”

Yes we should take this and many other things into consideration in developing our personal threat assessment. H5N1 in the media lately seems to have gone a bit ‘under the radar’. The more sources of information and critical assessments we can find, the better informed our risk assessment will be. This wiki does an excellent job in giving us all an expanded version of what is happening.

anonymous – at 14:57 How do you see the possible pandemic effects, what will happen, what needs to be done and why do you believe this?

stifles a snicker

such elegant prose would suggest intelligence behind the words, yet you play games with the truth. I have to wonder why

anonymous,

I have considered that you may be right.

I just don’t agree with it.

Just out of curiousity, on a scale of 1 to 10, what is your personal risk assessment?

anonymous

This is a Kung Flu Rope-A-Dope. I expect to see more of this.

1918 was a different world. Not only did many people grow most of their food, be it veggies,grains or meat, but the water was usually safe to drink.

Not so in today`s industrialized world. Collective we have so polluted our water sources that here at FW, we have devoted many threads on how to make something that we can safely consume.

I`m a lucky one, I have a well, with safe non treated water.How long it will remain safe? I dunno. I have bleach, and could probably rig up a solar still, if necessary.I don`t think that the County, who currently runs tests when I ask will be doing that after TSHTF.

Food is the easy part.

Anonymous,

lucky you that you have water where you live. that is my achilles heel. the only fresh water within 40 miles of me is brought by pumped city water. I tried to find any fresh water springs or streams in my area and there aren’t any. lots of water, but its all salt water. :(

if you could look back at Red Cross issuances… even just a year ago, they suggested having a 3-day emergency supply on hand. then, after Katrina, it was raised to 1-week. This is still what they say to prepare for in the event fo a hurricane. Now over the last few months, they have said to store 2 weeks. -that is probably still the “official suggestion” from TPTB.

You have to ask notables in their respective fields to get additional supply suggestions. Many folks come up to their own conclusions based on where they live and what they think will be available. Depending on whether you feel that distribution will be disrupted (and for how long) you come up with different numbers. When someone like Dr. Webster says “3-months” is what he has prepped for, I have to respect that. When someone like Leavitt says that a lot of infrastructure coudl be disrupted for WEEKS or even months, you have to respect that. How many weeks, how many months? -no official word can be given because we don’t yet know the CFR. Leavitt and TPTB all base their “worst case scenarios” on 1918-like predictions. They tell us to plan at least for that.

BUT if this turns into a CFR more like the Black Death (70–80% as it is currently), then life as we know it will really change, not for weeks, but months.

Okay, that was my last rant. :)

how many blocks would you walk, to stand in line (mingling with others), for a couple of five gallon containers of water?

My 2¢ worth…

anonymous presents some very pensive alternative versions of what may develop in the face of a panflu. I see no threat from their comments to how or what I plan for myself or my family. Each to their own. I have heard these responses from others, especially from my Canadian/European colleagues. It seems to be more of a socialized culture type response (present company excluded). In the US, many just don’t believe it at all.

Last nite, I watched a documentary on the end of easily available oil supplies. Seems by the year 2016, with China and India intent on expanding their middle class, our global supplies will be gone. Some of the consequences, which would be pertinent to a pandemic, included: (of course) EXPENSIVE gasoline, heating oil…(if you can find it), EXPENSIVE food products, absent food products. It said that all the food that we import from other countries (fruit/veggies, out of season) would cease. All that cheap merchandise we get from China and other developing countries would cease (the price would become prohibitive to transport). Trucking companies would go out of business or at least downsize substantially.

2016 is not so far away. Few are preparing for an energy crisis either.

Seems we have a few high level threat assesments to choose from. Perhaps I’ll alternate among a few of them to avoid burn-out. Egads…

TreasureIslandGal, I think you have to hope, like I… that enough of a government structure will operate so that water trucks will circulate through neighborhoods, I would recommend water containers with wide mouth openings.

moeb,

Well, I hope that if it does hit us in America, that it hits in June or July. That is rainy season. I live in a condo, but my partner has the keys to the roof. I plan on putting a bunch of water collectors up there if it comes to that. Also, we have a lot of snow birds. If they are not here when it hits, I fully expect to take advantage of every 55 gal water heater’s water that is not being used.

finds anonymous’s rose colored glasses laying on the floor and puts them on… hmmmm yer right I feel better now

moeb, when we get a pandemic with a high CFR , then all these measures become even more important. I predict : the higher the CFR the lower the infection rate, because people would be more careful and research would be increased. That could be very expensive, though, and some countries would go bankrupt. In theory you could equip everyone with high level security cloths, desinfect carefully etc. but in practice many errors will be made because it’s just too tedious. Also we would have almost no doctors for normal diseases, no care for old people homes, orphan asylum, prisons, hospitals, etc. We would go back decades in living standard and life expectancy. And that’s only for the “normal” problems. Despite all caution people would still get infected and die from the virus. But I don’t see that collapse of civilization in USA. Even when we go back 100 years with a standard corresponding to a life expectancy of 50 instead of 80, that’s no “collapse of civilization” yet. but we still

Here’s a way to think how much to prepare for a disaster (for people who like formulas)….

(The likelihood of a disaster event ) X (The impact of the disaster event)

So an unlikely, low impact event isn’t worth a lot of investment, but a likely, high impact event is worth extensive planning. Some events, like a direct nuclear bomb hit are too extreme to prep for.

Most things fall in-between. We can’t afford to ward off all disaster events, and we do live day to day with risk. (We can’t drive cars, use sharp knives, barbeque or fly airplanes without risk.)

So looking more carefully… Category A:

I’m not qualified to speculate on the likelihood or timing of a pandemic, but it seems a likely event to me in the next 10 years. (?)

Category B:

Is part science (CFR) & part socio-economics. I’m not qualified to speculate on the severity of an H5NI pandemic…hope it will be mild :)…

The socio-economic part is where preppers differ from most. I believe that a severe pandemic could spark a global depression and I am personally more worried about the economics than the flu.

Now, the idea of the Flu causing a economic, and therefore social crisis may seem radical to some people - for instance, my father thinks I’m wrong on this one. He simply can’t believe that a pandemic flu would impact utilities or food production. Especially because of all the hype, he believes that if there is a crisis, it will be due to oil, terrorism or something else we don’t see coming. Who knows, maybe he’s right(?)

However, a flu pandemic would attack our social/people infrastructure. Our social infrastructure is just as important as our physical infrastructure. Plus, all of our infrastructure is more fragile than we think.

For example: How many Americans does it take to change a light bulb? Say, a light bulb goes out in a street light - how many people are involved in getting it changed…

Well, firstly you would have to call the City and let them know its out (1), and a telephone attendant would log your comment (2). She/he would send the info to engineering department where a clerical worker would group several street lighting requests together (3) and hand the info to one of the techs (4) who would verify that indeed the light bulb is out, and record the exact location. The tech would then prepare a work order and give it to the City’s contracting electrician, via fax. The clerical aid at the Contractor’s office (5), would then put it in a box for the proper electrician (6). The contracting electrician and his aide (7), then would collect the proper light bulb, drive out into the field and change the bulb. When the electrician gets back, he places the completed work-order into the ‘accounts payable’ box, where the accounting aide prepares a bill for the City (8). The accounting aid faxes it back to the city where, the previously mentioned administrative aide, would see that the proper inspector (9) is given the completed ‘work order”. After the inspector has verified that the new light bulb works correctly, and logs the information into the proper database, she/he passes the work order to the ‘accounts payable’ department at the city. The accounts payable aide (10) prepares a payable document for inspection by the office head (11), and cuts a check to the Contractor, for the Commissioner’s signature (12) and sends it via USPS (#).

We didn’t include all the folks involved with preparing the contract for the electrician (lawyers, accountants, grants writers, engineers) or all the folks that were needed to manufacture, wholesale and transport the light bulb. Nor did I include the fact that the State would reimburse the City for some portion of the light bulb, so a financial report to the State DOT would need to be prepared, reviewed and send to the state, who would review the document as well. Nor all the people involved in the proper disposal of the old light bulb.

OK, so it takes lots of Americans, and probably lots of Chinese people to change a light bulb. But you say, a light bulb isn’t important. So it doesn’t matter. Send them home.

But do you pay all these people for work they aren’t doing? How will they pay the mortgage, and rent and food bills? Its fine for a few days, but months? How do you retrain them in the middle of a pandemic to do something more important?

What will happen to the construction industry when no one is buying houses? What about all those people who work in movie theaters and in the sports industry?

What about more important industries like railroads and the financial sector?

nsthesia: haha!

Yeah, like we don’t have enough to worry about already! -like lack of social security when I get there! No kids to take care of us when we get old either. Not expecting any inheritance from my fun-loving folks.

I live at the beach, so global warming will probably kick me out within 20 years (only 4ft above sea level at the most). My folks own in this building too, thus no inheritance! haha

Something else I thought of…

If a panflu DOES start out in Indonesia, China, etc., thereby disrupting THEIR supply chains and human resources, it will be only a short time before all of the cheap merchandise that is exported across the OTHER great pond will dwindle and then cease.

That alone will impact any last minute prepping. Seems it is only a matter of a couple of weeks before we would see this impact at home. So that means smaller distributors with less efficient distribution chains would have to fill the needs of the masses. I am all for Mom and Pop stores, but think of the difficulty they would have trying to meet demand.

I am sure they would die happy trying to do so. Hopefully, that is not a literal comment.

nthesia. As I was reading your post something came to mind…Life as we have known it has to change…whether it is as a result of a pandemic, global warming, new crop disease which also happen regularly or some other force of nature…

…and that’s my point really…since the 1950′s we have believed that we had mastered nature…tammed it…harnessed it to work for us instead of itself…WRONG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

noooOOOOO you can’t equip everyone or even a mentionable number of people with full biological safety suits. (whatever they call them) my thinking is that there is a mental barrier to accepting the thought of American Society as we know it… collapsing. I know I don’t accept that it will.

Unfortunately going back a hundred years doesn’t seem to give us any usable analogy (other than bits and pieces of 1918). It’s more probable that we have to go back to the years of the black plague in Europe in order to really grasp what is out there

yes… that does mean you will get used to seeing heaps of dead bodies being carted away

as to people being more careful with a high CFR.. you can bet the farm on it.. but unfortunately it won’t make much difference other that supporting the reduction of a wave as it sweeps through killing people.. some will flee, some will carry the virus

anonymous… ahhhh, now I see a big part of your argument. You are talking about prepping (or lack of) for a short term problem that communities could handle (hopefully) or else a complete, more permanent melt down that would disrupt civilization from then on. That is your “either or” as I understand it.

Most of us here are not at all insinuating that society as a whole will suffer a permanent melt down. We will emerge once this passes. -less in population, but the technology has already been established. We won’t go backwards permanently. We will just be inconvenienced during the pandemic and immediately afterwards until people can start going back to work and getting the cogs moving again. We generally feel here that the timetable for this “inconvenience period” will be longer than the period of supplies encouraged by TPTB will accommodate.

We are advocating that everyone research for themselves and determine (as most of us have) that the 3 days to 2 weeks amount of supplies, currently touted by TPTB, are simply inadequate if you look at what the repercussions of a 1918-like flu (or worse) could really do to our daily way of life in the western world. TPTB have repeatedly said…you are on your own, at least do this… -and they advise communities to take the lead to prepare to handle infrastructure locally.

on the fifth day after the water goes off you will hear a group of people methodically breaking into apartments in your building, unless of course you’ve organized the building into a tribe.. then again the place may be empty because the smell of the backed up bathrooms will have become worse than the fresh but scary air outside

moeb… unless this happens during a red tide. then the outside air is pretty bad too!

our condo complex will be a tribe. ;) we won’t have to break in to condos. we have keys.

heck you’ll probably be in the group doing the b and e’s

Tom DVM --- harnessed it to work for us instead of itself

We HAVE harnassed nature. But it’s like riding a wild bull---we haven’t tamed it…we’ve only learned how to hang for the ride of our lives…

good post about ATSHTF TreasureIslandGal.. what are you going to do about the bathroom thing? and how high up in the condo are you? do you have a dolly? (no not the kind you play dress up with)

Bronco Bill – at 15:38 “riding a wild bull” are you sure you picked Bronco for your car?….. where is a rodeo clown when you need one :)

DennisC – at 15:42 --- I’ve been told many times that I was born about 150 years too late! You should see me at annual ECV gatherings…

and I predict the higher the CFR the quicker Walmart’s of the world are cleaned out

TG, I don’t believe in that crops-argument. Coincidence.
nsthesia, in 2016 we will have alternative fuel. It will be more expensive, though. Bush suggested Alcohol earlier this year.
KimT, I think, we need now plans for bold pandemic leadership, plans to enforce quarantine, locations where to put the sick, other locations for the suspicious, separate them from their families and the other healthy. Plans for handling pandemic jobs and joblosses and how to finance this. We need more money for research and public measures. That means extra taxes, yes. My thread-assessment is : 10% probability for a pandemic per year, 10 million deaths worldwide expectation value per year. For the next 3 years. Bad enough to be concerned and to take action.
moeb at 15:10, 3 blocks. (but that depends…)

senses 1918 math (boo hiss)

anonymous you’re sneaky!!

mixes TreasureIslandGal’s vision with anonymous’s.. tosses in a high CFR a finds a world of hurt but civilization doesn’t collapse

I’m still trying to get which anonymous is which.

Too confusing.

We need some way to tag them like sheep.

ROTFLMAO.

Alcohol fuel sounds good to me, I use ethenol blend now. Will still need away to grow, process and ship with a reduced population.

There is no way on earth someone will seperate me from my daughter if she is sick, I will be with her every moment and I doubt that it will be possible to seperate familys, because the first thing that would happen should that be annouced is that no one would tell anyone else that there was a sick person in the house and I don’t think there will be enough people available to inforce that anyway.

You have some good ideas but we need to flesh them out abit. If the pandemic happens within the next year, a lot of things will not happen but give us 10 years and TPTB work on this non stop…maybe.

I actually have to agree with GS’s, er, I mean, “anonymouses” response to moeb at 15:10. 3 blocks. Maximum. A couple of 5-gallon jugs of water is gonna weigh about 80 pounds, and I wouldn’t want to have to carry that any farther than I’d have to…

anonymous – at 14:57 ST, you should at least, remotely, consider the possibility that I could be right and you wrong.

~~~~~~~~~~

So we consider that your right, and that we have 50 days, or hell even 100 days, for everyone in the world to stock up on food and water to ride out a pandemic. If your right, I have only saved hundreds of dollars buying food now, instead of paying extrodinary prices when the demand goes sky high.

What are the consequences if your wrong?

I’m prepared to be wrong, are you?

Re: family separation.

Many people learned from Katrina.

Family members were sometimes separated by complete STATES or multiples of states.

That won’t happen again. People learned from the media. So did rescue personnel.

We have enough problem in the fire service trying to get people to evacuate for wildfires, and not wanting to leave their PETS… much less a family member.

You don’t have enough National Guard in all of the United States to deal with the civil disturbance issues that will be created by forced separations for disease.

All of these plans sound interesting on paper, but as Murphy says, no plan survives first contact with the enemy.

On water: Water is HEAVY.

Get a little red kid’s wagon to pull your water home from the military water buffalo that will be parked at the corner of town.

anonymous is John Lennon:

Well I tell them there’s no problem, only solutions …

Watching The Wheels John Lennon

People say I’m crazy doing what I’m doing

Well they give me all kinds of warnings to save me from ruin

When I say that I’m o.k. well they look at me kind of strange

Surely you’re not happy now you no longer play the game

People say I’m lazy dreaming my life away

Well they give me all kinds of advice designed to enlighten me

When I tell them that I’m doing fine watching shadows on the wall

Don’t you miss the big time boy you’re no longer on the ball

I’m just sitting here watching the wheels go round and round

I really love to watch them roll

No longer riding on the merry-go-round

I just had to let it go

Ah, people asking questions lost in confusion

Well I tell them there’s no problem, only solutions

Well they shake their heads and they look at me as if I’ve lost my mind

I tell them there’s no hurry

I’m just sitting here doing time

I’m just sitting here watching the wheels go round and round

I really love to watch them roll

No longer riding on the merry-go-round

hippy :)

(home from work now)

Moeb: I live on the 9th floor, so the backed up toilets won’t be an issue for me. Also, we are at sea level and apparently the toilets on our island go right out to sea, not back to town, so they won’t back up. They can also be shut off at our building so no backflow issues. (They shut down sewers locally during hurricanes)

anonymous: “coincidence” should not be discounted in that case. The timing of the pandemic could have made much of the difference between life and death by collateral situations.

i.e. if the flu hits during the winter here for me, that would be best. -drought season, but enough water in the building to last until rainy season. And at least it would be cooler. Plus no red tide, so fishing is assured. Also, we get winter oranges/grapefruits locally then. Hopefully the snow birds won’t be here due to fear and wanting to be with families instead of here.

Get a little red kid’s wagon to pull your water home from the military water buffalo that will be parked at the corner of town.

Problem with that is 1) There aren’t enough “water buffaloes” for all towns, 2) if the water trucks ARE there, there will literally be thousands of people lined up to get water, meaning it will be rationed to last, and 3) whomever behind you in line that didn’t get water will very likely follow you home to take yours.

Bronco Bill – at 16:59

Not to mention thats only if you live in a city. We live in the sticks, no chance of a water truck here.

Carrey in VA – at 17:08 --- But Carry…can’t you just walk to town with your water jugs in tow, then walk back after standing in line for 9 hours to get your 1-quart bottle of Crysal Geyser water? ;-)

the concept of “no water” is not an “I can’t do that” thing… if you have to walk 9 miles with two five gallon buckets you will. Period

although a pistol and that little red wagon sure would be handy

Bronco Bill – at 17:17

LMFAO

moeb – at 17:28

2–5gallon containers wouldn’t last us 2 days.

No thanks those 2 liter bottles of water under the guest room bed, is looking better all the time.

actually my plan is to bribe the water truck guy with a can of coffee each time I need to fill my containers.. hopefully this will get me timely service

Bronco Bill – at 17:17

It is 5 miles to a “village” (no military truck will be there) and 25+ miles to a city and the return trip would be going up 5000+ feet in elevation. Not much chance of anyone here going after water “in town”- you either have it or don’t. And we will likely be the last to get our utilities back on.

There will be no one to help here except “we the people”.

Since this is Threat assessment- the real “threat” here is that some city folks will try to come to the mountains without any preparation and over burden the system. There will be no “water buffalos” here, no food deliveries, no utilities, no public restrooms and no way to get the bodies to the city for embalming.

The other threat is the speed of onset of the pandemic. I know the Los Alamos calculations are months, but I am afraid it will be much faster than that since transportation system are very interconnected and fast. One sick hot dog vender at a football game or a travel agent sneezing on tickets and……

So for me the real “threat” is stupidity, lack of planing by others, R0 and CFR, and violence

moeb – at 17:40

I don’t drink coffee. :)

I have told my “close” neighbors they can leave bottles at a set location and I will fill them for them. I have suggested they have two sets of bottles with there names on them so they can leave empties and pick up the filled. Water is one thing I have that is rare around here (NM).

anonymous (NO FEAR!): I have been out working and just came in a while ago. You are either being disingenuous, or God forbid, you really don’t get it. After months and years of studying all aspects of this overdue phenomenon (Panflu) I have come the disturbing conclusion that even with a 1957 level of pandemic very bad things could happen. The more I look at the probable knock-off effects from a severe pandemic (High CFR) I see no reason why they should not occur to some extent with a milder pandemic. From your repeated posts I believe you are making two critical mistakes:

It has not really sunk in for you how radically leveraged we are worldwide, economically and technologically, since the last nasty, (but not catastrophic) panflu in 1957.

And you ignore the fact that worldwide population has skyrocketed since 1957, and it has demographically shifted to the coastal megacities from the countryside.

Your calculations should dispense with how many trucks (or carts) are needed to carry away the dead, and plug in the migratory pathways for vultures worldwide and determine if their populations could keep up with the carrion. (We might have better luck with the coyotes and wild dogs).

Blue Ridge Mountain Mum at 14:47 (I know that was ages ago on this thread but still worth a response I think)

Please have another try talking with your friend. (I have effectively applied the following logic conversation with people and they have commenced prepping.)

Yes, tell her 2 weeks is enough, if she wants to have food etc available just while she is sick. Then, talk about she won’t be the only one sick in the community and shops might close - how about another 2 weeks food to cover shop closures. Talk about it taking as long as 4–6 weeks (maybe) for the wave of sickness to make its way through an entire community and for things to even begin to start up again - how about some extra food for that time.

Then talk about where food stocks and other supplies come from for your local stores etc. If they come from out-of-town, where they most likely do, will the wave of illness hit those supply areas at the same time as your community? If it is earlier or later, supplies won’t be getting to you, so you need to cover off another couple of weeks.

Now, if you think she is ready for it, ask her to think about protecting her family from getting sick by isolating herself - how about another 2–4 weeks food for that?

As you can see, these little 2 weeks add up, and, even ignoring the want/need to isolate, the need to store supplies for 2–3 months minimum can be demonstrated through a logical extension of people just being sick and not being able to work and the impact on trade, transportation and industry. And remind her that sick leave cannot be staggered to meet demand like annual leave can.

Now, you want her to start now - talk about how much food etc is available at the local stores - how many days of food for the entire community does the store hold? (In most places, this is about one and a half days under the JIT model.) What happens when everyone starts panic buying? - both to supplies and costs? Have her get just a few items extra each time she shops.

Also, don’t overwhelm people with the ideas of alternative water, heating and lighting sources etc., when they are still not convinced about food basics. That realisation will come with time and as they follow the logic chain further …

I hope this helps.

Woah, people---you are ALL scaring me!

I just got in from work and took a look at this site and it’s going to be like reading the equivalent of “War and Peace” to make it through what you have all written in less than 24hrs! It makes me wonder how much there is going to be when we think TS has hit TF. It will be interesting to see (in a macabre way) if there is a flurry of activity or just silence when we see the wiki swan do a swan dive…

I’m workin’: In my brief look through the previous threads, my eye rather egotistically landed on my name as you responded to a post (now TWO threads back) about the big corporations going to the conference Goju attended. I did not mean to imply that we will now be hearing lots of H5N1 information on their websites. That they are concerned enough to go was my major point. They could be going for 2 reasons. One is to potentially raise awareness (as per the Motorola example I quoted), but this is where you would have to fend off arguments that the corporations are only “concerned for us” and doing PSAs because they want to sell us something. The second reason is the one we should focus on and that is that they may be planning to create ways whereby their companies will continue to operate during a pandemic. If that is the case, it would mean that they are taking H5N1 seriously for themselves as corporate entities. Whether they care about us is irrelevant. If they are making internal plans (and I apologize for not yet having gone through all of the presentations Goju provided a link to so I could find this out) that means that big business, not “fluwiki loons” are taking this seriously enough to prepare THEMSELVES. And if THEY are preparing, so should we. Does that make sense?

P.S. Thanks for your understanding about my hesitation regarding posting on the pet med thread. If it makes you feel any better, you could tell that family member of yours that you are definitely NOT A LOON because if you WERE, then as a veterinarian, I COULD give you advice! :)

Re those who refuse to consider a serious pandemic-

“Never argue with a pig. It frustrates you and annoys the pig.” -RAH

All I can do for my friends and family is present the evidence, present the possible consequences, emphasize that govt has already said they can do nothing and are not planning to do anything, and tell them that I am NOT preparing for them, that they have to do this themselves.

As regards the current threat assessment, I am concerned about the recent news that seroprevalence studies do not show a significant number of mild cases. That bumps my concern up another notch. If H5N1 goes pandemic and is highly infectious, while retaining it’s present CFR, hospitals will be overrun in no more than a couple of days. There will be screaming wholesale panic. If the power grid goes down, we are screwed.

LMW. What does the RAH at the end of the quote stand for.

I agree completely with your assessment of the situation.

Robert A. Heinlein

AnnieB - 20:07

Thank you for your encouragement! I will keep trying, but even I recognize a ‘brick wall’ like what she threw up when I see one…

On the other hand, I’m a mite bit stubborn, so I’ll keep beating my head against that brick wall until I can make out the patterns in the blood.

We live in the south, so there’s nothing like the mob at the grocery store when the weatherman says, snow! The bread and milk disappear like magic…

To be honest, we live in a small town community where there are a handful of us who are the ‘emergency’ brigade. She’s probably half-way right that someone will offer a small bit of help. It’s just that her kids are school age, and we have too many people in our community who commute to Atlanta every day. Since Atlanta’s airport is a prime entry point, it has my spider sense tingling.

She still expects the US Cavalry to ride up on white horses with John Wayne leading the charge. It doesn’t matter that they can’t. The 1918 data that TPTB spew is just not helping matters. Also, she thinks that we will hear about it before it happens. I just can’t convince her that everyone else will be trying to survival loot wallyworld at the same time. Of course, if she goes across the street to shoot one of the neighbor’s cows, she’ll be able to get a lot more supplies than at wallyworld.

…I dissolve into hysterical laughter at the mental image of my 100 pound friend with a Hereford slung over her shoulder… I realize that I’m having an adjustment reaction. China is causing my PPF and blood pressure to soar…

MM, you present as fact what is to be debated. Not very credible. Me disingenious ? No, but maybe not very skilled to express myself to others. “don’t get it” ? Get what ? We’re still in the process of arguing. Please be more specific and/or present sources, when you disagree with something I wrote. “1957 panflu” ? It was as bad as 3 normal flu- seasons. Is that very bad ? I wouldn’t be here if that were the whole problem. “population skyrocketed ?” In USA 60% increase since then. Worldwide 160%, but we were talking here about US-preparation and US-consequences. “how many trucks” , I assume the number of trucks in USA has increased by more than 60% since 1957, couldn’t find it easily.

and Dennis C just said : “transportation system are very interconnected and fast” So people here are using it either way to paint a black picture.


good transportation : bad, since panflu spreads faster.
bad transportation : bad, since you can’t deliver food and carry away the dead
Now I’m asking myself why do people here have an interest to paint black pictures ? Why are you here keeping silent about the positives and frequently mention the negatives only ? And why are people like Osterholm etc. trying to manipulate the wording (“not if but when”) to trick the audience into believing the threat is more severe than it is ?

Anonymous You give a very good arguement and can back an awful lot up with proof and facts that you find.I have to admire your determination to prove what you want everyone else to feel and usually if someone says something i disagree with i find it easier to leave it and say nothing.But i cannot help but wonder do you have personal memory of the 1957 flu based on the three times as bad idea.or do you know personally or have known a reliable source that you feel you trust.On many occasions we hear of arguements that are political so i feel it not right to go into hear of a denial that something in history is so bad the answer is it did not happen when they know it did.or something is so nasty history books reflect something not quite the truth.From my point of view if you prepare for the worst yo hopefully will get a nice surprise but if not prepared a nasty one.I would rather be prepared

anonymous – at 04:02

anonymous – at 04:13

Actually, you haven’t really ‘won’ any argument. You have simply been more persistent than most posters. You are making predictions that society will function as before and people will behave the way that you prefer which you then use as the basis of your arguments that preparations are not necessary until it’s confirmed to be a pandemic in North America or at least outside of East Asia. The most you could argue is that it is still possible that you have enough time to prepare or supplies are available after a pandemic has been known to have started. Your projections of what might happen as the pandemic becomes public knowledge are based on societal behavior in normal times. Last night, your end argument was if nothing is available, a black market is available to you. I argued that if you are willing to accept the personal safety risks of dealing with shady people, I will have no need to convince you otherwise. Your view of the world appears to be based on probability. I will argue that in the event of a pandemic you will have to deal with a black market for your supplies and the end game is you are probably dead.

As for Osterholm et al’s ‘not if but when’ argument, I would say using your probabilistic view of the world, you have no argument against it other than rant. Since you like to use history to predict the future, you ought to know that history has recorded periodic pandemics, not very precisely predictable, but probably going to happen, though no one knows when. If you argue against this point, you are stating that it CANNOT happen, which you don’t really know.

If you are not in denial, who is? Why spend so much time on flu boards? Most people would ignore the flu boards if they believe pandemic cannot happen.

If people don’t argue with your points any more, it’s not because you have convinced anyone. It’s because they have acknowledged your different point of view, and sometimes even admire you for your persistence.

BE, yes, often people don’t say when they disagree, because it could be considered impolite. I hope we are not to this here, because it’s important to figure out the truth with H5N1. So, this is not to be considered as personal critics but more as a stimulation for engaged discussion and search for sources.
For the 1957 data I just typed some keywords in a searchengine, don’t remember which, but can search for it again if required or if the number is being questioned. Overpreparing and underpreparing are both disadvantageous - you might tend to ignore other threats in the former case.

I found the 1957 data now here 70000 dead in USA, 34000 dead in USA from the 1968 pandemic. Normal flu causes 35000 deaths per year, so adjusting for the population increase a 1957-like pandemic would be as severe as 3 years of normal flu.

yyz, you are not quoting me correctly.I didn’t say what you said I said. It’s exaggerated. Let’s say, there will probably be disruption but not as bad as commonly perceived here. Flu-deaths would still overwhelm starvation/dehydration deaths, or deaths from human violence. In the endgame I would not be probably dead, since less than 50% would probably die. Even from the unprepared (I’m more prepared than average).
“not if but when” Osterholm and others know that the audience will project this to H5N1 while they mean any flu and without timelimit. That’s misleading. If this remark is a rant for you, that’s your definition of rant but not the one of my dictionary. As I said before, I do consider the pandemic threat big enough, that we should intensify measures. I even gave probability estimates above. So, I don’t understand why you think I’m in “denial” or that I shouldn’t spend time here.

Anonymous. Yes i see i was not casting doubt on the facts you put up i have no doubt as you are spot on.I was just meaning if you could recall it or knew someone who did as during times of illness like it was people off sick the reality is infact empty shelves.I quite clearly remember our miners strike in 1972 we had power blackouts for several hours about 4 nights a week.scarce petrol meaning food supplies could not get throgh the main items of shortage were toilet rolls bread and sugar.there was none all i was meaning was you cannot infact be sure china is giving the right statistics on what is happening in relation to everything.If you could be sure then it would be a different situation i am all for informed discussion and that is why i am always leary of how gov and who are so sure we are all safe enough.A picture of the 3 years normal flu at once will be enough to produce shortages if at most caused by panic buying at the time another problem will be those workers staying at home for fear of catching it.I just feel you rely on statistics and while i am sure you are good at collecting those in you are Foris en Fido or strong in faith they are correct i prefare my old guides motto Always be Prepared

Anonymous has convinced himself, and few others, that he/she has no immediate need of prepping. Fine. The 2006 CFR is 67%. Strange pig diseases are breaking out in China nad one study suggests half the pigs in Java have asymptomatic H5N1. Dr. Nabarro is clearly worried and thinks we may have little time left and says we should use it to prepare. Big business is clearly beginning to take a severe pandemic seriously with 1/3 to 1/2 of its staff out. The flu season is fast approaching. Can we get back on the real topic?

anonymous at 4:13

I guess you are saying “good transportation” means having a lot of efficient transportation available; “bad transportation” means having very limited transportation available? If so:

Good transportation is bad at the start of a pandemic becuase the flu will spread more easliy with more transportation. We don’t have horses and carts anymore — which only go slowly from town to town.

Bad transportation is bad during a pandemic because whatever people are healthy won’t be able to help get food and fuel to keep the country up and running. We don’t have horses and carts anymore which can just eat grass, available everywhere.

Sorry, INFOMASS, you are right — time to get back on topic.

ANON-YYZ – at 05:51 Anonymous, Actually, you haven’t really ‘won’ any argument. You have simply been more persistent than most posters.

Yes. And that’s because most posters realize the futility in playing footsies with a devil’s advocate. There is work to be done here. Can we please get on with it? This person is wasting many good people’s time and energy.

anonymous – at 06:37 I respect your opinion on the threat, and sincerely hope you are right. A lot of people here are preparing for a “worst case scenario,” which we hope doesn’t happen. Everyone’s level of preparedness comfort level is different, depending on their life circumstances and perceived threat. This is a place for people who share a common concern to express and debate various points of view (hopefully without attacking one another). I hope everyone will remember that we all have a right to our opinions and keep our comments to healthy debate. Too often I see threads evolve into a sort of verbal “war” where the ultimate point being argued doesn’t matter a hill of beans in the grand scheme of things. We are so passionate about the potential for panflu because of the possible implications for our families. In my view, regardless of what the CFR death rate is, based on the simple definition of “pandemic,” we will all be affected in some way. Even if the death rate is low, the number of people out sick from work, potential for school closings, and those needing medical treatment will still have a huge impact that could overwhelm our healthcare system and have an impact on services. Many of us with young children are scared to death of the possibility of watching our children die while we can do nothing for them. Prepping helps aleviate that anxiety by making us feel that we have some control over something that, obviously, we have little control over.

Time to go change a diaper and get a cup of coffee :)

Anonymous – at 04:13

Your argument is not logical. The point is the present speed of transportation would increase the initial spread and onset of disease. That is different from the conditions that may exist after a pandemic hits where the transportation system my fail due to supply and illness of workers.

Again you should pick a “handle” other than anonymous. Anonymous has posted spam, insulted my friends and me and otherwise caused a lot of problem on the site. Now you may not be the same anonymous, but it is sad that you seek to be identified with those that do and cause others to spend their time trying to figure out which anonymous goes with which post. If you look objectively, you will find this site to be more concerned with caring for others. You should first try to understand the “culture” of a site before you attack.

Anonymous – use the name Hi or the Letter T or G so we recognize you. This discussion has been going on a while now, I was home sick yesterday so I had a chance to particpate. I like tjclaw1 thoughts – at 09:30

In a nutshell we are doing what we can to protect our families and if some of it is overboard so be it. I would be the first to say that I had disbelief that we would lose power still not 100% sure that we will, but we get really cold here in Iowa and I’m not going to risk my kids freezing. So I do what I do.

No one can prep for “worst case”. Even mild will tax everyone. You are not alone when you are alone. there will be people at your door best to act now and extend your personal protection shield further out away from your home - read- your neighbors and their neighbors.

It is the final and most important prep.

Goju – at 12:17 I have tried and will continue to inform my neighbors. As most of us know its not an eay calling. I was re-reading the Great Influenza last night. I think I will loan it to one of my neighbors, she likes to gossip she will either tell everyone I am nuts and prepping or start helping to spread the word. Sigh

Realize what my be “extreme preps” for one my just convience to another. For example I have a 500 gallon water tank. But that was put in long before people talked about BF. My water pump, solar array, and so on are because of where I live and the the local power and water outages that are common here. The same with buying bulk long life food. It is much more convienent than going 50 miles to the store every week or two… and so on. When a snow storm hits, it is much easier to sit and wait till the road is clear than to have to dig the driveway and venture out in a storm. My “buried supplies” are because I like to hike and camp in my “back yard”. I did it long before I heard of BF. Be careful of trying to judge others by one single standard. Instead try to understand others and their conditions and see how you can help.

kim - i tried for a year to imform my neighbors and relatives and friends - i have given up the one on one appraoch. You need the local community to do it - the message i got from the conference is that we will have the support of National gov and biz. It will be more visible so your job may be easier - talk to your town leaders. Have a plan for them to help inform the residents - more to come.

A federal risk assessment matrix

More on threat assessment:

The prototype Vulnerability Assessment Model (VAM) is a systematic, risk- based approach in which risk is a function of the severity of consequences of an undesired event, the likelihood of adversary attack, and the likelihood of adversary success in causing the undesired event. For the purpose of the VAM analyses:

Risk is a function of S, LA, and LAS.

S= severity of consequences of an event.

L*A= likelihood of adversary attack.

L*S= likelihood of adversary attack and severity of consequences of an event.

L*A*S= likelihood of adversary success in causing a catastrophic event.

anonymous – at 04:02

In that this is the current threat assessment, I will say that with the ongoing cases in Indo, the possible cases in Thailand, Vietnam and Cambodia and the new possible cases in Egypt coupled with the pig problem in China and the lack of any news there, the treat is climbing the hill and I set hold for this fall.;

To anonymous, I will only say this once. You and people like you are the primary reason that TPTB have not and will not move forward on any real PanFlu preparation. The nay sayers bring out all of the data that they have on 68, 57 and what little they have on 18 and point to that information as being the proof that H5N1 will do nothing more than that. While that is the norm in science, nature does what it wants to do. Science demands that you prove your theories in such a way as to be reproduced by others. You then write your papers and publish your findings and once properly peer reviewed becomes fact. Those who do this with H5N1 (I include you in this) are no more knowledgeable than I am on what this bug is going to do. None of us, and I include the best scientific minds in the world, know what this bug is going to do. It has defied all normal process, it is more virulent and deadly then any other flu bug and still we do not know if it will go effective H2H. To say that it will act like all other Flu virus’ is to not look at what little data there is available. Thailand, defeated it last year, it’s back. Vietnam, was the most aggressive in it’s approach to keep it out, it’s back. Indo flat does not know what to do and we are waiting to see what happens when they lift the Tamiflu blanket. China is in total denial about everything.

You have in fact caused a very good debate on the Wikie about facts and reasons for not preparing. For that I do respect you as you have shown many here what the arguments against PanFlu are. Hopefully they will understand that when the “scientist” use those arguments against administrators in Government the administrator must back up and bow to them. That is why you see islands of countries preparing while others are sitting on their hands. The sad part is that the “experts” do not know any more about what they are dealing with then the average Joe on the street. Anon_22 and Melinae have often bashed me about the head and shoulders with one phase, “There is insufficient data to support your arguments” and they are always correct.

I am personnel prepared for six months, if goes beyond that I do have other plans, If I am wrong about this, the worst that will happen is that I will be able to eat for 5 months with no additional cost and be prepared for all hazards for one month. If you are wrong you are dead.

As to the speed of infection. I will know bow to Anon_22 and Melinae, there is no data to support how fast or how slow the virus will spread. I have run my own models as part of my job, once I saw what they told me I went from nothing to fully prepared in less than 4 months. No I will not post my models as they belong to my employer. If you want good models talk to Tray 75. He saw the same thing.

In short you base your arguments on what has happened in the past. The DOT and FAA said that no one would hijack and airplane and fly it into a building because it had never been done before. Get out of the box and think on your feet.

anonymous – at 06:37

you are not quoting me correctly.I didn’t say what you said I said. It’s exaggerated. Let’s say, there will probably be disruption but not as bad as commonly perceived here. Flu-deaths would still overwhelm starvation/dehydration deaths, or deaths from human violence.

Every one has a different notion of projected possible disruption and I would not call it ‘commonly perceived’. I didn’t see anonymous last night stating possible ‘overwhelm starvation/dehydration deaths, or deaths from human violence’. The picture anonymous painted was one of ‘there should be enough time to buy preps after it’s known to be pandemic, of society improvisations being able to deal with the problems, of easily finding drivers, making new products etc.

In the endgame I would not be probably dead, since less than 50% would probably die. Even from the unprepared (I’m more prepared than average).

I was addressing your reference to dealing with black market in buying preps. I surmised that would increase probability of getting killed by a few percent. For example, if CFR based on the virus is 2%, then I think the ‘collateral damage’ of having to deal with the black market and shady people during a pandemic will at least double that. I am not even talking about 49%. Your chance of being hit by being murdered by bad people in normal times is much less than that 0.1%.

not if but when Osterholm and others know that the audience will project this to H5N1 while they mean any flu and without timelimit. That’s misleading. If this remark is a rant for you, that’s your definition of rant but not the one of my dictionary.

IMHO, it is logically and statistically correct. It is certainly much less misleading than your arguments that ‘drivers are easy to find’, ‘you will be able to find supplies’, ‘even if you want it delivered’, ‘someone will make the supplies, even if the price is higher’ etc etc.

As I said before, I do consider the pandemic threat big enough, that we should intensify measures. I even gave probability estimates above.

Your argument on this thread was one of we don’t have to prepare until it is publicly announced to be a pandemic, that there will be enough supplies and drivers, transportation and manufacturing capacity. You are advising people not to prepare. I didn’t see you saying ‘the pandemic threat is big enough’, at least big enough to require some preparation before pandemic arrival. How many weeks of food and water do you recommend before pandemic is confirmed? So far, your advice seems to be “zero”.

So, I don’t understand why you think I’m in “denial” or that I shouldn’t spend time here.

You are certainly welcome to spend time here or any where you choose. I am not clear in my mind how you can paint a picture of enough time to prepare after pandemic arrival. I think that is denial #3 “when it hits, its not going to be too bad”.

It’s been discussed before, and I list here for easier understanding. There are 4 flavors of denial of the threats of pandemic:

1. it won’t happen

2. it won’t happen to me

3. if it happens, it’s not going to be a big enough problem to have to prepare

4. if it’s so bad, there is nothing we can do about it, so let’s not do any thing.

And if it does happen and happen at a level you haven’t prepared for, the result is the same.

DEAD

I am not as well prepped as many of you, but I am prepped with alot of critical supplies to last about a month. My response to those who don’t want to prep or who are in denile is why wouldn’t you? I assume you have homeowners or apartment insurance, car insurance etc. We hope we never have to use that. Here’s a situation that may also never come to be, but, you may loose electicity for water in your home for a week, I bet you’d be happy that you had all those batteries on hand, or the bottled water. I rotate my preps and eat them, will donate others before the expiration date to a food pantry. There are way too many people in way too many countries talking about this emergency for us to ignore. Each person preps for what they really think they may need. But in the end, nature is greater than all of us, but we were given minds to think and make decisions which could save our life. I’ve decided that this is serious and I have taken action.

BirdGuano – at 13:30

Since the govt. is implementing and not just planning (purchasing tamiflu, outlaying money to hospitals, etc.), the risk rating interpretation says they are at red.

It’s not only our government (U.S.) Scientists and medical professionals from all over the world are very concerned. It’s scary to read what they say.

Oremus – at 14:45

BirdGuano – at 13:30

Since the govt. is implementing and not just planning (purchasing tamiflu, outlaying money to hospitals, etc.), the risk rating interpretation says they are at red.

BINGO, we have a WINNER.

Watch what they DO, not what they SAY.

We have moved from “High Impact, Low Probaility” to “High Impact, Moderate Probability”

Bird Guano – at 15:19

We have moved from “High Impact, Low Probaility” to “High Impact, Moderate Probability”

I agree.

Even with the spelling errors from my fat fingers, some get it.

LOL

denile=denial I wish I could edit my posts.

Da Nile is a deep river we must be strong enough to swim out of.

I almost forgot to answer this one.

lugon at 04:44 :

>… cause more trouble, worldwide and locally,

 >than we have seen in the past 40 years. 

…

>I honestly do not know about probabilities. I find it difficult >to assess probabilities in a highly complex […] >situation. The probability of a soon and ugly pandemic >is larger than zero. Large enough if you ask me.

Lugon, you still don’t get it. Everyone has a subjective probability estimate of any future event. Some are more comfortable to call it a guess. Well, OK , if that helps them. You can have an estimate about the outcome of a chess game by looking at the actual position on the board even when you know little about chess and you know that others can analyze the position much better and make a much more profound estimate than you. Now, suppose someone of these asks you for your estimate. You may assume, that they already have a much more profound estimate. So your estimate might be challenged or even ridiculed about. So you say : I don’t know. (meaning: others know better) Although, of course, you _do_ have an estimate. And that estimate is more profound (less probable to change when new information comes in) than the estimate of your little sister, who knows nothing about chess.

That’s where we are with pandemic prediction and risk-communication. Except, that the experts don’t know whether the other surrounding experts are better at predicting or not. So, they just refuse to give their estimates and refuse to discuss about them. This way they are not in danger to be ridiculed by better experts.

But they still want to warn about the threat just not being too specific so they could be nailed on it. So they are deliberately unclear and use formulations like: “not if but when” “pandemics happen” “the virus is mutating” “Indonesian helthcare is a mess” “just in time delivery” But, when you ask : “so, how likely is it ?” They will say: “no one knows” or such. This leads to nothing. This is inconsistent.

So it’s our task to translate these unclear statements back into out individual probability estimate. And I don’t think, that people here and elsewhere are very good with that.

Now, you cannot reasonably say that you have no clue about your subjectively preceived probability while OTOH claiming that it is larger than zero or even big enough (whatever that means for you)

That is already admitting that such a number does exist. You could run some random-number generator on your computer and pick the first number in [0,1] other than zero as your probability.

…

>Both planning >and acceptance need the communication of risk, and such a >risk needs to be communicated BEFORE the events.

and it needs to be specified (and discussed) before it can be communicated. Or people would not really believe you.

mous~ obviously the people here are far better at “it” than you are.

on the other hand, TPTB while moving forward on this, continue to have their hands tied by the uncertainty of nature.

many of us have a pretty good idea of what’s coming, we may not be able to tell you the day, the hour and the minute of your pending demise… but we definitely see it coming

Moeb that was put very well but it may be some people are not just unwilling to prep but lack the financial means or education to prep and for those people i hope when the pending demise does happen we may be able to advise some charity orgs that can help perhaps soup kitchens will be set up for these people.

gs, I tried the random number thing: let the computer give me a number and see if I feel “comfortable” with it (meaning it resonates with the empty guitar I have between my ears). Honestly, none of the 5 numbers that popped up feels more (or less) comfortable than the others. But others might try that to see how they feel.

Well let’s see—you got the viral asteroid, the viral tsunami, the viral tornado, and the viral “tempest in a teapot”. Only with the last scenario can the slackers feel somewhat safe, and they MAY just get by. Monotreme’s logically sound conjectures late last night (based on recent study findings) have me betting on an “asteroid” hitting in the China Sea with a swelling “tsunami” radiating out, engulfing the world.

Even after the people before Hurricane Katrina were wrong in their extremes of thinking (both of which meant they didn’t have to prepare);

“either the hurricane will miss us or not be a big deal”, or, “If God takes me, my time’s up”, found out there were lots of shades of gray inbetween, and found dying from the impacts of a hurricane weren’t instantaneous, (days, weeks, months, years?)

I still see the same flaw with pandemic influenza; locals either think it won’t occur/be a big deal, or, “It will be so bad there is nothing we can do about it.”

Not true.

Nothing we can do to *stop* a hurricane, volcano, pandemic, or tsunami, true, but if good scientists have been warning and recommending what we should do to mitigate impact of devasting expected events, we can certainly do those things.

If nothing happens, be grateful, if something happens, at least you tried to prepare, and it could have been worse.

We wear seatbelts because there’s a lot more consequences that can happen to us or our families/communities/health care systems, than having a nice day, or, being instantly killed. We’d like to avoid some of those consequences.

What choices people make and what actions they take based on their knowledge helps make the differences between not only life and death, but how much suffering, economic problems, infrastructure loss, even who ends up holding actual or political power after a devastating natural disaster, including plagues/pandemics.

Lugon my comments were meant for anonymous.I thought that was clear.In view of what was said to me yesterday i think i should find a forum with a common aim of preparing for Pandemic Flu and Other emergencies as the upset of anonymous remarks have made me feel i should move away Best wishes to those who have the mutual aim of preparing

As posted in another thread, I found out yesterday that my company has moved from “planning” to “actionable items”. For a year they have talked about it and had a few very sketchy travel advisories put out, but now they have invested major time and effort into creating, and making public, plans and communications documents. These documents are things that affect not only vendro and customer relationships, but also puts things in writing for HR and employees. that’s serious. that’s real.

Everything is in “budget crunch” mode here at the end of the year (like most companies), yet they have seen it necessary to continue this expenditure on an international basis, expanding it even. This shows me that the PPF for the company as a whole has risen substantially since just a few months ago.

The company has been around through the 1890′s, 1918, 1957 & 1968 pandemics. It managed to survive. Luckily, this experience is being put to very good se in solid plans to persevere through any pandemic-caused disruption again. (I’m glad I work here!)

My PPF leaped to a “definitive will happen within 3 years max” since seeing this within the company. Maybe even as soon as this flu season. Maybe next. I will be ready in case this flu season.

-if I’m wrong… at least I am ready for a hurricane! -that is a real threat too of causing major disruption for me. And nobody laughs at my “hurricane preps” now after they saw how bad Katrina was for the survivors even after a few months.

My current threat assessment is that the government thinks that H5N1 is going pandemic in Asia. Like the Juggernaut, it is now not possible to stop. My personal estimate of the situation is that we have weeks to maybe 3 months to get ready for this.

Beatrice Elizabeth - don’t go away on the account of any poster.

The site is for everyone. If you don’t like what someone is saying, don’t let that make you think that everyone else here can’t get something out of your posts. Stay for the rest of us. Ignore those that irk you. ;)

OnandAnon - You’ve expressed exactly where I am at this moment as well. In my mind, the three months would be a gift!

Beatrice Elizabeth I have learned to just ignore all post by anonymous. Now I know they are not all the same person, but under the name of anonymous there have been insults, spam, trolling, starting bad arguements and confussion. You should avoid all comments by people that insist they be identified with such postings. A person posting under under anonymous often will know that it bothers people but just does not care about others and enjoys the confussion they cause. That should tell you something.

Please continue to post and just ignore “anonymous”. We want to hear from people that care and that try. It is people like you that makes a good site.

It is ironic that each and every years millions of people purchase health and property insurance (just in case); has an annual physical (just in case); has their children vaccinated for a number of diseases (just in case); yet when we talk about storing up vital items to survive on their own for more than a couple of days, it is called “paranoia” instead of being smart.

As I said a few days ago, we have more important things to do than read and respond to anonymous postings. If you let them run you off that is a real shame. Why do you people read their emails????

We had all better develop a thicker skin…and try to focus on our survival skills.

crfullmoon @ 9:42,

“Even after the people before Hurricane Katrina were wrong in their extremes of thinking (both of which meant they didn’t have to prepare);

“either the hurricane will miss us or not be a big deal”, or, “If God takes me, my time’s up”, found out there were lots of shades of gray inbetween, and found dying from the impacts of a hurricane weren’t instantaneous, (days, weeks, months, years?)”

FINALLY, you have verbalized what I have been trying to tell friends/family for years! Preparedness is NOT an all or nothing situation. There is a LOT of gray in between.

Every time I hear the fatalistic comment, “We all have to die from something”, I want to throw up my hands and shout, “But you don’t understand…the odds of you just immediately dying are low!” Often, the dying is the EASY part. It is the long, drawn out, seemingly never-ending, slow demise, that is HARD!

Even my DH thinks people just die! Sure, some do have a “pleasant” sudden death experience, but more often than not, we instead experience a slow deterioration, followed by our death. Hopefully, by having some good genetics and good lifestyle choices (+ a dose of good luck), that deterioration can be delayed until the very end.

Preparedness for any disaster is analogous to the above comments. One likely does not immediately die when a disaster occurs. <altho a panflu just might be the closest thing we can find to actually DO that> So, there are day, weeks and even months to years to get thru. It makes me think of the old quote, “If I knew I was going to live this long, I would have taken better care of myself.” <G!>

I found a comment on a blog that really grasped my attention re: this issue. It stated: We civilians are often presented with “preparedness” as an end in itself. Strap your water heater to the wall, write down your out-of-state contact number, and make up a 72-hour kit in a backpack. Then you are “prepared.”

But if you read an Emergency Operations Plan from a city or county, you notice that everything tends toward “recovery” as the stated goal. One learns that there are five steps in planning for disaster: Hazard Identification and Vulnerability Assessment (HIVA), Mitigation (making hazards less hazardous), Preparedness, Response, and Recovery. All the steps are aimed at getting back to business as soon as possible after the disaster takes you down.”

Makes you realize…we aren’t really prepping just to survive the initial incident, we are prepping in order to RECOVER! Preparing is not an end to itself, it is just the means to an end, which is to return to a new sense of normalcy.

Not understanding this basic fact, is IMHO, the greatest threat to our well-being.

nsthesia at 11:30-And just to add to your very good post. Those who are “informed” and who have the means to prep, BUT DON’T, are irresponsible, selfish, childish, and content to take somebodyelse down with them. Almost as bad as downing a half-bottle of Jack Daniels and deciding to hit the road.

There are more and larger clusters of the bf. This means that the virus is getting more infectous. That cluster of 30 or so people in indonesia was an outlier. When the bf goes pandemic it will start as an outlier. 32 is 5 doubles. When wil it reach sustainability? 6 doubles? 7 doubles? People, the end is Now!

nsthesia – at 11:30 That was the best post I’ve read all day. kudos. You hit the nail on the head.

For good or ill I’ve been away from the computer for the most part for several days with on again, off again computer problems. It did do me some good in a certain respect to get away from the puter for a while … but now that I’m back on I feel like I’m recovering from a partial deafness.

Trying to read all the posts that have gone on in the last couple of days isn’t a possibility … too much stuff, not enough time. <grin> However if anyone were to ask me about my opinion of a current threat assessment I would have to say that its going up … perhaps not exponentially, but it is definitely going up.

With the increase in cases last year at this time I expect the number of infections to really increase this year during the same time period because of the geographical expansion of H5N1. We’ll just have to see … I’m neither a scientist nor a risk manager, but I’ve got the “itchies” to get flesh out my preps a little more.

nsthesia….couldn’t agree more with you and to Medical Maven…if I ever did down a half bottle of Jack Daniels, I would definitley hit the road, with my face. >;)

Very long thread, needs to be closed. Continued here

On the subject of High Impact, Moderate Probability. Here is a table from the World Economic Forum Global Risk Report 2006 on a scale of 0 to 4. The last item “several recombinations appear” refers to the risk of multiple lineages, as in multiple pandemic strains appearing repeatedly over a number of years, as discussed in this paper Establishment of multiple subleages of H5N1: implications for pandemic control