Continued from here
In the past thread, the initials “CAR” was used together with “CFR”. I looked at the Science.Glosary and could not find what CAR is supposed to mean. Any help?
I believe it is the case attack rate, which refers to the number (percentage or ratio) of people within the population that become infected.
ok, thanks!
Exec202 – at 23:02 What is your threat assessment?
perhaps….. it’s who has to buy lunch?
My threat assessment has elevated over the last few days. Between the New York conference info and my own workplace moves, I have been made more wary than ever. I have been having a lot of weird dreams lately too and I can tell that my stress level has gone up considerably lately. I managed to let the BF drift back from my daily life over the last few month, and just caught news bits avery few days, but for some reason, I now find myself getting re-obsessed with this again and teetering between wanting to mobilize my town against it, and wanting to be anonymous so as not to be either ridiculed or else a target when TSHTF.
I’d like the press to pick up on the fact that the 80.4% CFR in Indonesia for 2006, puts it on par with ebola (80–90% CFR).
How would they like easily spreadable Ebola in every city at the same time?
Pray H5N1 does not become easily spreadable.
Oremus – at 13:16
I’d like the press to pick up on the fact that the 80.4% CFR in Indonesia for 2006, puts it on par with ebola (80–90% CFR).
How would they like easily spreadable Ebola in every city at the same time?
Pray H5N1 does not become easily spreadable.
---
Hope (and/or prayer) is not a PLAN.
Bird Guano – at 13:22
Never said it was, but it can be effective.
My comment wasn’t directed to you directly Oremus, but rather to public officials that rely ONLY on hope or prayer.
Something’s got the local PTB spooked, they’ve gone from ostiches to eagles in less than a week. We used to beg people to take this seriously, now every other call and email is someone requesting information/presentations/exercises. This is good, but I wonder (does anyone konw) who is breathing down their necks and why?
Enza - 00:43
Just a guess, September is National Emergency Preparedness Month.
Of course, if you’re chief virologist is telling you that H2H is being seen in Indonesia, and, that it is of utmost concern, maybe the PTB are getting on the ball. LOL!!
Check out Annoyed Max’s thread. The PTB are still way behind the 8 Ball on this one. Heck, they’re not even playing on the same plane of existence.
I think the current threat is slowly tightning to a higher degree
It seems that we are getting more serious warnings from the WHO and the United Nations, and World Bank. Today was particularly more dire that in past weeks. I’m actually thinking about working on some of the last minutes preps.
TreasureIslandGal – at 09:26 I now find myself getting re-obsessed with this again and teetering between wanting to mobilize my town against it, and wanting to be anonymous so as not to be either ridiculed or else a target when TSHTF.
I can relate to that feeling. Who do you help and when do you say I can’t. My grandson 20 we raised and he lives w/ us is always dragging people home. If I help one of his friends what about the rest. I am a pushover by nature but how do i say no?
I was involved in the Y2K preps for my community,,,,,and although the town itself did do some planning (on paper anyway),,,only about 40 people out of 30 thosand would attent the weekly prep meetings I put on at the local fire house. In the current situation, I would think the same would happen,,,very little prep by most and that is why I am keeping quiet this time. This time it will be much much much worse.
Gary Near Death Valley – at 18:44
I have just finished reading Mike Davis book “The Monster at the Door”. I helped me understand the problems and possible causes of what we are facing. More importantly I know fully understand Dr Nabarro’s statement at the meeting Goju attended, “We have God’s time left” Many of the top people are tring to figure out why H5N1 has not already gone pandemic.
After reading the book, looking at what has been happening in the past 6 months, watching what TPTB in the US are doing and more importantly what the business community is trying to do (Safe America . Org) My PERSONAL feeling is
Very High Impact Very High Probilitity
Mother nature has been shooting Pandemic bullets at us for the past 5 years. We will not be able to side step them much longer.
Anon_451 – at 19:35 Yes I totally agree with you on that. I had read both “The Monster at the Door” and “The Great Influenza” last year, and have racked up the preps since then. This is entirely different than Y2K, different than hurricane Katrina,,,,,,,,,closer to what Europe experienced during World War II, but this one is going to come to everyones doorstep, a step at a time, sneaking up and yelling BOO, unless one studies, pays attentions, becomes news oriented, and have prepped as best as they can. I have no idea how long it will be till this goes pandemic but I also see the various PTB, getting a higher voice as time goes on, like someone with some body parts in a vice. Soon I expect, the shrill will become a scream,,,,,,,,
Gary Near Death Valley – at 22:22 I have just started to read “Collapse” by Jared Diamond. So far the thoughs put forth in his book dove tails into the “Monster at the Door”. The growth of the Agro Business in Asia, supported by Agro Business in the US are bring together viri with a huge population where it can mutate and change at will. The cull of chickens will have little effect unless they also cull the large Agro farms and that is not going to happen as they provide to much money and food for the governments in question. The H5N1 is out of control, we have become so interdepent on each other that no government wants to tell another that they are putting the world at risk and as such this thing is going to happen and there is no way to stop it.
If the CFR drops to half of it’s current rate it will still be a civilization buster. I once though that the Third World would be better off then the first world. I was wrong, the slums and sweat shops set up by the first world will do to them what the Army Camps in WWI did to the soldiers on both sides.
We, the world, have set up the perfect storm. All that is left is just the right events to come together and our house of cards will come crashing down.
I finished reading the same book yesterday. The title should not be “The Monster At Our Door” but “The Time Bomb Under Our Carpet”.
We need to focus on “really bad and really soon”. It worries me that I have not seen the usual “keep cool” comments from Dem. :-/
Oremus 13:16: It has infact earned the nickname “Bird Ebola”.
But that is, of course, not a nickname to be proud of.
Uh-Oh.
The book I have been reading say’s that an epidemic is usually signalled by a lowering of the CFR. This is because it can spread to more people this way and in the end kill many more than would be possible if it killed immediately.
So it could be a good sign!!?
(but what do I know!)
lugon at 3:59-
How much Tamiflu does your book say is available?
I need a mask that can stop a virus that is 0.1 micron in size…HELP.
I’m officially sending out an S.O.S.
“If we cannot organise a sufficient mask/respirator…then who cares if we can put man on the moon!”
anonymous - please select a “handle, nickname, username” - thanks. You seem to be new on this board - welcome. I suggest you use some time (put yourself a limit!) to read http://www.fluwikie.com - and maybe come back here with, say, 10 questions. Some of those questions may seem silly or unimportant, but if you’re really “a newbie” :-) then how you approach this huge subject really matters to us: we want to make it easy for new comers to jump on board quickly and as easily and productively as possible. So thanks!
Tamiflu and masks and respirators - all scarce or very scarce or non existant, depending on where on Earth you live. People will presumably fight over them, adding to the mess. I believe we need to focus on simple masks and on other things.
any commercial mask is going to become scarce as hen’s teeth (yea I say dumb stuff like that all the time) meanwhile mous~, an overlooked source for masks can be hardware stores and garden centers. good luck, welcome aboard
newsnow is full of dire warnings today. The new press release from the WHO has some very strong statements as well. It reads closer to what you’d see on this board rather than their usual canned statements.
I have a question. I have several boxes of N-95 masks. My SO has a beard. Seems to me that that will be an issue with how well the mask will fit. Easy solution is to shave, but I was wondering if there were any other ideas?
well.. he could catch H5N1, infect all those close to him and then die… followed of course by all those unlucky associates/family members. I suppose that’s another idea if he really want’s to keep his beard. Otherwise it’s one of those full face mask things
Re Beards-
Had one. Loved it. It’s gone now, and won’t be back.
spiritinthewind, you can’t get a good seal on a mask, any mask, with a beard. Not even with the respirators(full face mask and tanks of air). My hubby is a firefighter, they are all required to keep their faces well-shaven.
Prep LOTS of razors:-)
moeb at 11:29 ‘well.. he could catch H5N1, infect all those close to him and then die… followed of course by all those unlucky associates/family members.’
whoa, that was meant to indicate humor
no idea what happened there…
“you can’t get a good seal on a mask, any mask, with a beard. Not even with the respirators(full face mask and tanks of air). “
Ever see a commercial pilot with a beard?
NawtyBits – at 13:11
That’s why they did away with beards in the military. Also in a fight beards can give your opponent something to grab onto.
Pandemic?
Could happen any day but probably not within the next 60 days
Could kill 77% of those infected, probably not below 50%
Could infect 98% of the population but probably closer to 30%
Current expectations are 4 in 10 die and governments in many countries will disappear but not in 1st world nations
NawtyBits, yup.
It’s still not a good idea (did your mom ever ask if your friends jumped over a cliff, would you? -:) But don’t take my word for it, check these links out…
Transport Canada- Civil Aviation Advisory ‘The Effect of Beards or Long Hair on the Efficiency of Demand Type, Continuous Flow Oxygen Masks, or Smoke Hoods’
excerpt …”Some years ago and following several reports of possible problems with oxygen mask efficiency when used by persons with beards, the Civil Aeromedical Institute (CAMI) at the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration’s Protection and Survival Laboratory investigated the effects of beards on oxygen mask performance.
Demand type mask
The CAMI research involved testing of three popular Technical Standard Orders (TSO) approved crew member oxygen masks equipped with mask mounted regulators, each of which is widely used in civil aviation operations.
The test data indicated that a decrease in performance does occur when facial hair is present along the sealing surface of the crew oxygen masks. The decrease in efficiency is proportional to the amount of facial hair present, the type of mask worn, the suspension system associated with the mask, and the exercise level to which the individual is subjected. The study, like studies conducted previously by oxygen equipment manufacturers and the U.S. military, concluded that respirator/oxygen (sometimes referred to as “demand type”) masks cannot be donned rapidly and do not seal over beards or heavy facial hair. This lack of a seal could result in a reduction in the amount of oxygen in the mask and the entry of smoke or toxic fumes that could reduce the capability and performance of the crew member…”
http://www.tc.gc.ca/CivilAviation/commerce/circulars/AC0185.htm
or how about the OSHA- ‘APHIS Respirator Fact Sheet
Approved Types, OSHA Regulations, and Fit-Test Protocols’
excerpt- “9. The test shall not be conducted if there is any hair growth between the skin and the face piece
sealing surface, such as stubble beard growth, beard, mustache or sideburns which cross the
respirator sealing surface.”
http://tinyurl.com/zcqd2
or U.S. Department of Labor-Occupational Safety & Health Administration ‘Inquiry on beards, respirator use, and fit testing of repirators’
excerpt- “[(1) Facepiece seal protection.
(i) The employer shall not permit respirators with tight-fitting facepieces to be worn by employees who have: (A) Facial hair that comes between the sealing surface of the facepiece and the face or that interferes with valve function; or (B) Any condition that interferes with the face-to-facepiece seal or valve function.]
This requirement applies to both negative or positive pressure respiratory protective devices that rely on the principle of forming a face to facepiece seal.
Beard growth at points where the seal with the face and respirator occurs is a condition that has been shown by numerous studies to prevent a good face seal. Copies of relevant articles documenting this have been enclosed. Thus an employer using a respirator to protect an employee with a growth of beard where the seal is compromised by the beard growth is violating [29 CFR 1910.134(g)(1)(i)(A)]. The OSHA standard does allow beards with the use of respirators that do not rely on a tight facepiece seal between the respirator inlet covering and the underlying skin (i.e., both loose fitting helmets and hoods are acceptable in this regard)…”
http://tinyurl.com/qav8s
If oxygen can escape from an improper seal at a rate enough to impair an individuals’s ability to function, then virus can certailnly get in. So, if you are serious about not wanting to breath in viri, serious enough to go to the trouble to wear a mask- why potentially sabatoge the effort over a beard?
At what price vanity?
I have been following this discussion for over a year now and have a few questions that I have not found answered yet concerning the virus life expectancy. How long does it live on: Open surfaces at 70 degrees or higher in the sun Open surfaces in the shade In the dark and in cold areas Can it survive in a mailed envelope and for how long When someone dies, how long does it live in the body of an adult and then in a child Once someone dies in a home, how long after before it is safe to enter Does the vius live on dead birds and for how long Thankyou anyone for your answers, and I believe without this form we would be in the same situation and in 1918 with the MSM and PTB not admitting to the existance of this danger until it was at out doors.
Yep, that’s what I thought. The beard has got to go then. Off to BJ’s for the mother load of razors.
moeb at 11:29 ‘well.. he could catch H5N1, infect all those close to him and then die… followed of course by all those unlucky associates/family members.’
Bahahahaha! Yeah, so much for that thought. The beard goes, or HE does!
Back in June/July, when I was working on my new home in VA, we had a mold removal team there to repair a wall. Part of the discussion I had with them was the effectiveness of masks with beards, as both of the guys working in full PPE gear had goatees. I do too. The project manager showed how the lower part (under the chin) needs to be shaved off, so that the goatee only goes to the bottom of the chin. He fits all the masks for their employees, so I have to assume he knows what he’s talking about.
If you have to have a goatee, it has to be shaved narrower at the bottom, sort of like a “V” shape and kept trimmed to no more than about 1/8 inch in length. Mine? It’ll be coming off. It’s time for a change, anyway….
Since we are on the subject of respirators, I would like to point out that the NIOSH-95 is not really the way to go. It may be fine for routine carpentry or other dusty work, but not as a line of defense against a deadly biological hazard. You see, the number “95″ refers to the percentage of particles larger than 5 microns that it can filter out. For a higher level of filtering, invest in NIOSH-100 masks and be sure they are equipped with pressure relief valves. Although these can be really costly online, you can get them for less than $10 each through a local industrial supply store.
I might be one of the few that can SIP for a long time, and the reason I will grow a beard, as it makes one looks “more scuffy and tattered”. I for one do not want to be seen as healthy, clean shaven, etc, but from my neighbors view, will look hagard, unshaved, and looking hungry. If for some reason, I would have to leave the property, lets say the wife falls and breaks a leg or something, then I would shave so I would have a clean fit on the N95 mask that we have, but staying in the “COMPOUND”, would not have to be clean shaven. I was in the fire service for about 30 years, and know how difficult it is to fit any face masks even with clean shaved face.
moeb at 14:11: I don’t follow your calculations. If four in ten are expected to die with a 40% attack/infection rate, then all those infected would die. You said the attack rate would be closer to 30%. Surely, we can (as you say) expect a CFR of 50% to 60%? That is the global average I think. So, I think your assumptions lead to maybe one in four dying, which is still horrific, but not the same as two in five. Maybe quibbling about the apocolypse?
As you know the CAR (Clinical Attack Ratio/quantity of those getting infected),is the great unknown… the original assessment was based on a 30% CAR and a 55% CFR. That worked out to be 2 in 10 dying. It was pointed out to me that this did not include collateral deaths. With the current CFR in Indonesia hovering above 77% and no real data to support the idea of a low CAR… I feel the 4 in 10 guesstimate on probable mortality to be closer to accurate.
excuse me.. I mean “case attack ratio”
It’s interesting to think of the odds “2 in 10″, this infers that you have an 80% chance of survival if you do nothing.. nada. no prepping, no worrying, no discussing. Just go about your life in bliss and H5N1 Pandemic won’t kill you.
I’m not sure those things can be trusted.. do you?
I’ve asked this question before, but is it 30% of infection for the total pandemic? I always thought it would be 30% infected during each wave, with the possibility of several waves. Then the fatality rate would be dependent on if it was a mild wave or a severe wave. So it would infect maybe 20–30%, from 3–5 waves until everyone had the immunity, didn’t get it for some reason, or the virus just dies out.
Or we come up with a vaccine.
Moeb: I took the 4 in 10 to be directly from pandemic disease, not the total due to all causes. There is considerable uncertainty about the meltdown scenario and plausible guesses range from excess mortality of accident victims and chronically sick due to the health care overflow to utility and food shortages that could last years. In that case, 4 in 10 seems very low. The length of time over which the pandemic plays out could also be important. Ruth, I cannot speak for the modern models, but in the 1918 Navy records about 1/3 of all Navy personnel were infected over a period of 9 months, starting with the first wave. Overall, about 1% of all Navy personnel died in that pandemic. I do not suggest that these data are predictive for H5N1, but I suppose the 30% infection rates used reflect that experience.
A thought occurred to me this morning, could the mild first wave in the spring of 1918 have been just a regular flu season? This would go along with the mixing of the two viruses theory. This could have resulted in the new H2H pandemic flu of 1918 which then hit the world. The newly created virus then hit with a severe second wave. Just a thought, and now I’m worried about next summer and fall. Maybe this would give us more time to prepare.
Hi. Ruth. No. They were able to prove that the first wave was in fact H1N1 in 1918 because the mild first wave initiated protective immunity for the second wave…they both were due to H1N1.
I believe Dr. Taunburgher determined that H1N1 was pure avian virus and therefore there would have been no reassortment or recombination with a human virus in the spring that caused the increase in virulence in the fall. It would have mutated to increase virulence in the same way that H5N1 is mutating to produce several unique circulating strains.
Ok, thanks, I feel like I learn more and more every day.
Ok, thanks. Always learning.
Hi Ruth. This is fun…I have never given anyone homework before.
Just kidding!!
I have been reading a book called the Great Influenza by John M. Barry…I am finding it very difficult to read, it is probably my problem rather than John Barry’s.
Anyway, even if you skim the book there are many tidbits of information that you will pick up related to the issues you raised…and hopefully we will discuss some on flu wiki at some point.
Hi Tom. Speaking of books, my local bookstore called and left a message that the book that you recommended to me a week or so ago is in. I am presently having a stupid attack and can’t remember the name of the book. Thanks again. JWB
Hey JWB, it’ll be like Christmas! You made my day — I forget stuff all the time. Haven’t left a kid stranded in the rain with a science project yet, but it’s probably just a matter of time. . . I can literally hide my own Easter Eggs : )
Olymom – at 11:40
Yesterday I picked my granddaughter up from school and took her to my workplace because she had a practice after school. So I wouldn’t forget, I wrote a big note and taped it onto the edge of my monitor. When she saw the note she said:
“You wouldn’t really forget me would you?”
I said of course not, but the truth is, without the note, it’s a distinct possibility!
As discussed elsewhere, I think the tipping point for significant collateral damage will be more related to how many people get sick at a given time. If 25% of the people in this country became ill in a couple of weeks, almost regardless of the CFR, I think that might be enough to set off a cascading system failure.
Dr Dave – at 14:37
Since we are on the subject of respirators, I would like to point out that the NIOSH-95 is not really the way to go. It may be fine for routine carpentry or other dusty work, but not as a line of defense against a deadly biological hazard. You see, the number “95″ refers to the percentage of particles larger than 5 microns that it can filter out. For a higher level of filtering, invest in NIOSH-100 masks and be sure they are equipped with pressure relief valves. Although these can be really costly online, you can get them for less than $10 each through a local industrial supply store.
P100 rated filters in a fit-tested respirator are best.
They provide the 100 NIOSH rating, along with the oil/moisture resistance of the P rating.
LMWatBullRun: Do we have any analogous experience in which large fractions of the work force were unable to come to work in the past fifty years? I am not arguing with your 25% cascade point so much as wondering if there are data points to support it. I suppose areas with bad storm damage might be local (though imperfect) examples, though usually that gets cleaned up in a week or two. Maybe, going outside of the US, we can point to cases to see if (say) half of the labor force can keep minimum services running or not? It is clear that we would have power outages, spot shortages of food/fuel, etc. but that is short of collapse and it might be useful to try to understand more precisely what levels of damage do prove irreversible. My concern is more with the health system than with other things, but I could easily be wrong.
It’s a good day when you have to bump the “Current Threat Assessment” thread.
Bump!
LMWatBullRun – at 13:38 — As discussed elsewhere, I think the tipping point for significant collateral damage will be more related to how many people get sick at a given time. If 25% of the people in this country became ill in a couple of weeks, almost regardless of the CFR, I think that might be enough to set off a cascading system failure.’
INFOMASS – at 14:03 — LMWatBullRun: Do we have any analogous experience in which large fractions of the work force were unable to come to work in the past fifty years?
I was in London (UK) during a winter in the early nineties when a particular bad seasonal flu hit the population. It was said that 40% of the workforce was sick. In Greenwich District Hospital (South-East London), in my area, they did not have enough staff, were putting ill people in corridors. I had some difficulty in getting my normal shopping as deliveries weren’t regular and a number of shelves were bare for days. However what was missing in some shops was generally to be had, sometimes with another label, at another. I remember queuing for a while at petrol stations because some had run out. I do not remember any power cut, save trains were late or cancelled (which would have happened with British Rail anyway for a number of reasons other than this). I did not use the bus, only car, train, tube. I do not recall anything special with the tube, save the usual bomb alerts. This state of things lasted about 10–15 days, after which everything came back to normal. However, I never forgot. You may want to ask Anon_22 if she remembers when it was exactly.
If you look at some of the hospital stays of bird flu survivors (sometimes 30 to 40 days), the number of people sick at any one time will be high.
Olymom – at 11:40 (yesterday) You can hide your own Easter eggs! I like that one!
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