Continued from here
FrenchieGirl ¨C at 10:08
With reference to my post at the top of the thread FrenchieGirl ¨C at 13:23 I was in London (UK) during a winter in the early nineties when a particular bad seasonal flu hit the population¡.
Eurosurveillance has just published (October 2006) a report entitled: ¡°Surveillance of influenza-like illness in England and Wales during 1966¨C2006¡å which confirms what I was saying above: the winter flu season 1989¨C1990 was particularly bad then, with the worst peak in infuenza-like-illness (ILI) in the previous 13 seasons. In the discussion part of this report, I quote the following:
blam ¨C at 13:58
Reconscout¡.That info is contained in this article:<p><a href=http://citypages.com/databank/27/1320/article14219.asp> This Thing Just Continues To March</a>
Frenchiegirl refers to http://www.eurosurveillance.org/em/v11n10/1110-224.asp
This should be “readable” by public health officers, no?
Lugon --- pardon my toes. I guess I stepped on you when I closed the previous thread ;-)
about Monotreme’s city (from previous thread # X)
It is nice to think of a save city or to SIP safely at home. But right now I am watching a movie, Poe’s “Mask of the Red Death”. It might be an interesting read for those that have not done so. They party as the plague is all around the castle. They shot those that would enter. But in the end……. It is typical Edger Allen Poe, but it might be an interesting read for fluwikians - at least on Halloween.
Monotreme:
You know you’ve reached icon status on the fluwicki when you gently suggested a ban on cats as part of your fantasy prevention plan. I expected you to get harpooned by the cat lovers, but not a word. Heck, not even an arrow. I want to thank you for the US state review. I fired off an e-mail here and there but my state is in re-election turmoil. I’m hoping some answers will pop up after the vote.
Clusters - Non Index Cases summarizes what we’ve been discussing recently.
So far it’s just a collection of notes. Please work there to improve the page cooperatively. Thanks!
Wanted to bump this thread up to get people’s input on where they see the current threat level.
I know a lot of our regulars are over playing on the Beta version of the new site and I want to make sure we’re not missing anything going on around the world.
Ahhhh, Mondays.
: )
Thank you. I would love to know what everyones thinking.
We have H5N1 that is able to easily swap human flu material. We have many birds and mammals infected in many countries. We have the onset of flu season. We have the hadj and holiday travel in November to February (Thanksgiving, Xmas, New Year, Lunar New Year) with lots of travel and large groups moving back and forth. I think this increases the probability of H5N1 “learning” to infect more people. Nothing inevitable or definite, but definitely not good. No way to calculate the odds, but my internal estimator (NOT calculator) puts the odds of some sort of pandemic at 1/3 to 1/2 in the next five months. “Some sort” does not mean 50% or more mortality necessarily, but it could be. Likewise, it is hard to know if the infection rate will be 20–30% or much higher. Or if there will be waves with different strains. Too many unknown unknowns.
Am a noob and infrequent poster on FW, been lurking and reading this and CE for a year and a half. The last couple of weeks been reading for hours a day.
I agree with INFOMASS.
I get a bad feeling, been alerting friends and relatives, and delving into much more serious prepping.
BeWell @ 13;40 Same here, I have been visiting these forums same ammount of time as you. I too have been seriously planning within the past 3 weeks. From what I have read in these forum rooms, I feel a much more urgent need to prepare here at home. It seems more real a threat to me now, especially after my Dr. would not give me tamiflu prescription the other day, due to Govt. stockpiling, and an order not to give any to anyone. It made BF very real to me, and scared me to be honest. I also find it really strange, that ‘seasonal flu “ is not even on the map in Mass. right now. This is usually very active time for seasonal flu here. There are just too many strange thngs going on.
BeWell and snow lover - keep prepping, it’s always good to prepare for any type of emergency. Glad to hear you are watching Massachusetts, snow lover. We need all the eyes and ears we can drum up. This flu, according to what we’ve had down south, sounds like a nasty strain. Not one I want. BeWell, you have been reading up on this longer than I. Thanks to both of you for keeping us informed.
I will be getting my own website up and running soon. It’s from my own perspective from years of “roughing it”, years of using natural home remedies, Ayurvedic study of nutrition and herbs, years of aromatherapy practice too. Also years of practicing and teaching meditation. Also, I might add, years of dire financial straits! Anyone who wants the url when it’s done, email me: MayAllBeWell at gmail dot com.
“Prepping” has been a way of life for a long time; not for any specific emergency but I have known for a long time that life always brings challenges and obstacles, and it’s better to be safe than sorry! I have always cooked from scratch, and bought basic ingredients in bulk - cheaper that way, and less time shopping (which I hate).
My website will have a lot of Ayurvedic basic information on detoxifying the body so as to have more strength to withstand illness, basic survival nutrition, herbs for the immune system and healing, and stuff like that (as well as all kinds of natural home remedies that I have used and researched).
BeWell: Great idea to put stuff up on the web! I hope you do not forget Vitamin D, which seems to boost the immune system at dosages well above the RDA, but still safe for most people - say 1000 to 2000IU/day for adults. If anything can boost inherent rather than acquired immunity, it might be vitamins, herbs and such.
Are we there yet: I’ve been wondering where everyone has been playing.
I’ve been checking more flu sites lately and everyone seems to be on edge. I am way behind on my news reading. What’s the latest assessment and WHY? It’s always just a little trickle here and there. Why have these last 7 day’s trickles been so worrisome to some? Maybe I need a smack in the head with a board but I am having a hard time putting it all together. help
I found some interesting things on a DOD site today. I will share later tonight when I get home from work.
On the fence and leaning – at 17:25
When the news dried up in Indo a couple of weeks ago, we saw a big spike on the rumors thread. Now, it just seems quiet. No news may just be that, no news. I can’t tell righth now, so I reached out for a group temp reading.
Are some jumping at shadows?
On the fence and leaning – at 17:25
Why have these last 7 day’s trickles been so worrisome to some
You don’t need a smack in the head.
I think it’s anticipation of flu season, thanksgiving i.e. traveling uncertainties, some news from Egypt.
On the fence and leaning – at 17:45
Are some jumping at shadows?
Yes and No. Personally, I find the emergence of a dominant strain in China most worrisome, but not in the immediate or near term.
Some worry about the report in Nature of receptor binding mutations, here at 23:15, whereas I’m not as worried, (at least not enough to increase my short term threat assessment) as I explained on that thread, at 17:38.
We are also tracking a possible cluster in Egypt, although there is not much news on that either.
Hijack-
Infomass- at least 2,000 IU, that was what one Dr. perscribed his patients in 1918 and the avoided succumbing to the flu even though neighboring patients were falling ill from it.
But remember that you can get 20,000 IU of Vitamin D from 20 minutes full body exposure on a sunny day. The best way to get your vitamin D.
Also don’t forget Vitamin A for the immune system.
BeWell - I have been eagerly awaiting you new site.
If you’d like, go over and read the thread New Cluster in Egypt for my current threat assessment.
One caution on Vit D. Do not take more than 2,000 iu if you have normal kidneys, and it can cause stones in people with poorly functioning kidneys. For non-pandemic flu seasons (ie now) take 1000 iu if you are a healthy adult. I have a Registered Dietician friend who has researched this extensively. All patients that can take the vit D are doing so on our ward, and we have a very low incidence of colds so far…..
Jody: That is a very good point about kidney stones. In general, if you are going to take several times the RDA of non-water soluble vitamins, it is better to be conservative if we are in a watchful rather than pandemic mode. I believe that less than 2000 IU a day is not likely to cause problems for most people though pregnant women may also want to check. I suggested 1000 IU because many people take a multivitamin with 400 IU of D and also get some through the diet. Those who live in sunny/warmer climes can produce a lot, but the body adjusts to what it needs so there is no danger of overdose from sunlight. Those with a tendency to kidney stones need to drink orange juice and adequate fluids. You do not want to have a kidney stone “attack” in the middle of a pandemic! On the ppf, I wonder if anon_22 is a bit too reassuring. Niman’s latest posts add to the likelihood (as I understand it) that we are getting very close to the “right” strain. But you can go crazy worrying too.
INFOMASS – at 22:00
On the ppf, I wonder if anon_22 is a bit too reassuring. Niman’s latest posts add to the likelihood (as I understand it) that we are getting very close to the “right” strain. But you can go crazy worrying too.
If you interpret the science differently, you can come to very different conclusions. ;-)
The day after tomorrow -
This week I will be feverishly working on my website. Unfortunately, having spent much of my life a luddites, I know nothing about how to get it on the site; I am depending on a fellow I don’t know well (husband of a friend) who is - shall I say - not the easiest person to work with. But that’s what I have. I will post links here and on CE, and anyone who wants me to alert them, just email me.