Forum: Systematic Preparations

In a previous posting, I touched on the concept of staged preparation for a pandemic flu or any other potential disaster. By defining a series of planning levels, each successively more challenging than the last, and then fully preparing for each one as a foundation for the ones above it, it is possible to quickly and efficiently make preparations without wasting either effort or monetary resources. I think some of members of this forum might find some of these ideas useful in their own planning and preparation efforts.

The basic approach to this system is to define a series of possible levels of pandemic impact, and then determine what preparations you need to make for each. If you start with the lowest one and fully prepare for it first, then the next level up adds additional preparations, etc. Thus, as you prepare, you are fully “covered” for at least the lower levels, and then need only to add additional supplies or plans for the next higher levels.

In my personal case, I have defined 6 planning levels. In this and subsequent postings I will define what I consider the definition of each of the levels and what needs to be done to prepare for them (this is an ongoing effort, controlled to a great extent by the feedback and acceptance I see here in the forum)

The levels I use are: 0) No Pandemic 1) Pandemic impact about the same as a very bad seasonal flu outbreak 2) Pandemic impact worse than a severe seasonal flu outbreak 3) Impact approximates 1918 pandemic 4) Impact exceeds 1918 pandemic 5) Impact approaches pandemic plague

Once you have ranked the impact levels, you can prepare from bottom up. So for instance, what would one do in the case of a severe seasonal flu outbreak? One would stock sufficient supplies to treat the entire family down with the flu at once. Stock sufficient food and other supplies to accomodate the kinds of shortages that would be seen under those conditions.

And so on, up the tree until you you either feel the severity will not reach that level, or else you are unable (unwilling) to contemplate the conditions you will be facing. I will start with a discussion of Level 0 - No Pandemic.

This level represents the basic emergency preparations that any person should make in anticipation of adverse events occuring. Thus such potential hazards as Hurricane, Earthquake, Flood, Blizzard, Major Trucking Strike, Serious personal or family illness all carry with them the possibility that you may need to provide for your own needs for a limited period of time. Such needs may include backup lighting, water, medicines and food for a period of several days. If you live in a cold climate, emergency means of heating may also apply.

For a level 0 preparation, you should assume a period of at least 3 days in which you will be on your own, and provision accordingly. In a level 0 situation, you can also assume that normal societal support structures will resume after a few days of emergency.

Lets start from here. If folks would like me to go up the preparation ladder step-by-step, I will be happy to do so.

Sorry about the appearance. I guess I didn’t apply the editing correctly

I’m good to go at level 0.

By the way, since I’m good to go, I have time to lobby politicians, bureaucrats and PR managers to weigh more into the problem.

After weeks of feverish activity, I think I am up to speed on level 0. (Should have been there long ago, since I live 1/4 mile from a Big Bear fault line. Oh well.)

I vote for you to continue and I hope you’ll offer specifics.

I was very intrigued by your discussion of the staged preparation and planning levels. Please continue.

Honestly, I think this is the only way to get many people preparing at all. It is way too much for me to consider prepping for a year of supplies. However, I CAN focus on 2 weeks, and using that success to motivate me further, do a month, etc.

PeggyS

Continuing the Level 0 Discussion -

From my previous posting, it should be obvious that while level 0 denotes no pandemic flu is present, it does not mean one should not prepare. The preparations which one should undertake for level 0 are those that would be needed to make it through any reasonable emergency situation. The supplies and provisions one sets aside must be tailored to their individual circumstances and means.

The areas of planning one needs to visit include Food and Water, maintenance medicines, family communications plans (how do you get in touch with spouse, children, parents, etc in the event things happen quickly), shelter, warmth and cooling, and any special needs one may have.

Basically, one should sit down and examine their daily life and determine everything they need on a normal day to function normally, and then provide themselves with a reserve supply sufficient for at least 3 days. (I personally prefer a week, but 3 days is adequate as a starting point). This includes items such as prescription medicines, a battery TV or radio, flashlight and batteries, toiletries, changes of clothing…….

With the exception of extra water and some of the other pieces of hardware, this level should not oblige you to purchase, stock or carry anything more than you would otherwise already have, unless you are living so close to the edge that you need to re-examine your lifestyle anyway.

Next time - Level 1 description and basic planning.

Just before you bring in more text, please let me give it a try to reformatting (not adding anything new) so it’s more readable - I just hope I succeed!

While I’m at it, would you consider putting your postings in the public domain so we may “steal” them. I would want to use them for http://www.globalvillages.info - Thanks for giving it some thought. :)

In a previous posting, I touched on the concept of staged preparation for a pandemic flu or any other potential disaster. By defining a series of planning levels, each successively more challenging than the last, and then fully preparing for each one as a foundation for the ones above it, it is possible to quickly and efficiently make preparations without wasting either effort or monetary resources. I think some of members of this forum might find some of these ideas useful in their own planning and preparation efforts.

The basic approach to this system is to define a series of possible levels of pandemic impact, and then determine what preparations you need to make for each. If you start with the lowest one and fully prepare for it first, then the next level up adds additional preparations, etc. Thus, as you prepare, you are fully “covered” for at least the lower levels, and then need only to add additional supplies or plans for the next higher levels.

In my personal case, I have defined 6 planning levels. In this and subsequent postings I will define what I consider the definition of each of the levels and what needs to be done to prepare for them (this is an ongoing effort, controlled to a great extent by the feedback and acceptance I see here in the forum).

The levels I use are:

• 0) No Pandemic
• 1) Pandemic impact about the same as a very bad seasonal flu outbreak
• 2) Pandemic impact worse than a severe seasonal flu outbreak
• 3) Impact approximates 1918 pandemic^
• 4) Impact exceeds 1918 pandemic
• 5) Impact approaches pandemic plague

Once you have ranked the impact levels, you can prepare from bottom up. So for instance, what would one do in the case of a severe seasonal flu outbreak? One would stock sufficient supplies to treat the entire family down with the flu at once. Stock sufficient food and other supplies to accomodate the kinds of shortages that would be seen under those conditions.

And so on, up the tree until you you either feel the severity will not reach that level, or else you are unable (unwilling) to contemplate the conditions you will be facing.

I will start with a discussion of Level 0 - No Pandemic.

This level represents the basic emergency preparations that any person should make in anticipation of adverse events occuring. Thus such potential hazards as Hurricane, Earthquake, Flood, Blizzard, Major Trucking Strike, Serious personal or family illness all carry with them the possibility that you may need to provide for your own needs for a limited period of time. Such needs may include backup lighting, water, medicines and food for a period of several days. If you live in a cold climate, emergency means of heating may also apply.

For a level 0 preparation, you should assume a period of at least 3 days in which you will be on your own, and provision accordingly. In a level 0 situation, you can also assume that normal societal support structures will resume after a few days of emergency.

Lets start from here. If folks would like me to go up the preparation ladder step-by-step, I will be happy to do so.

(Re-inserted for continuity with Lugon’s fix-up of the botched first posting)

Continuing the Level 0 Discussion -

From my previous posting, it should be obvious that while level 0 denotes no pandemic flu is present, it does not mean one should not prepare. The preparations which one should undertake for level 0 are those that would be needed to make it through any reasonable emergency situation. The supplies and provisions one sets aside must be tailored to their individual circumstances and means.

The areas of planning one needs to visit include Food and Water, maintenance medicines, family communications plans (how do you get in touch with spouse, children, parents, etc in the event things happen quickly), shelter, warmth and cooling, and any special needs one may have.

Basically, one should sit down and examine their daily life and determine everything they need on a normal day to function normally, and then provide themselves with a reserve supply sufficient for at least 3 days. (I personally prefer a week, but 3 days is adequate as a starting point). This includes items such as prescription medicines, a battery TV or radio, flashlight and batteries, toiletries, changes of clothing…….

With the exception of extra water and some of the other pieces of hardware, this level should not oblige you to purchase, stock or carry anything more than you would otherwise already have, unless you are living so close to the edge that you need to re-examine your lifestyle anyway.

Next time - Level 1 description and basic planning.

Lugon, thanks for the help in fixing up the readability. I had left the initial posting alone because I didn’t want to fixate on the subject if there was little interest. But this makes it much better.

As for “stealing” the posting…I thought it WAS in public domain. By my posting the information here on an open Wikie, I pretty much figured that it was openly readable and reproducible by the entire world. If you think my opinions are of value to others elsewhere, you have my permission to repost wherever it would be of benefit in helping give people improved health and safety.

Level 1 - Description of Conditions and Basic Planning criteria

At this point, we take the planning tree in the specific direction of influenza preparations. This does not preclude making additional plans for possible hazards specific to your own situation and planning for them as well. There will usually be much overlap between them. A good example of a situation specific plan would be those folks in New Orleans who survived the rapidly rising flood waters which chased and trapped them into the attics of their homes because they had previously experienced bad flooding and had stored an axe in the attic. They used the axe to cut through the roof and escape. Others, unfortunately were trapped and drowned in their attics.

The conditions I am using for planning at Level 1 is that there is a pandemic flu circulating around the world. It is moderately contagious, and of low to moderate virulence. Those people who take sick with it experience a bad case (perhaps the worst of their lives) of flu, but except for those who are candidates for trouble with seasonal flu, they eventually recover without further problems.

Although there will be some slowdowns in stores or service related businesses due to high absentee rates, in general, things continue to function much as they normally do. Some spot shortages may occur locally in stores where demand for sickroom supplies such as Tylenol or tissues exceeds the supply, but this will be a local issue, not a national or international one. Pharmacies these days don’t seem to run excess shelf stock, and can run short of some medicines on even normal days, depending on next morning delivery to fill holes. Be aware that you may need to be familiar with more than one pharmacy in your area, or else be prepared to be given a short fill on some flu related prescriptions and then come back in a day or two for the rest.

Doctor’s offices and hospitals (in the US, I don’t know about the rest of the world) will be stressed, and some spot issues with hospital emergency rooms going to bypass status will develop, but in general medical support, advice by phone and emergency treatment for those who become seriously ill should still be available. (Digression for a hint: The hospital in my area is a major trauma center which catches medivac helicopters, ambulances and walk-ins to the ER. The basic priority structure is the same - helicopter, ambulance, walk-in. If you or someone in your family is in need of ER care, it is better to call for an ambulance. They will be seen and treated HOURS sooner).

In planning for this level, I feel it would be prudent to assume that all of the members of your household are down with the flu simultaneously. Thus, one who is planning for this level will need to determine what supplies it will take to get through such a situation.

In my next posting, I’ll discuss what I view as reasonable preparation for the Level 1 condition.

Observation while preparing to post next section -

I have noted that today, the day known as “Black Friday” in the US (the largest consumer sales day of the year), was accompanied by numerous reports of shoving, assault and other antisocial behaviors in stores by shoppers competing to get their hands on low priced goods offered as special sale items.

Imagine that instead of just holiday shoppers, these people were struggling to get medicine or food in an emergency instead. Hence, planning ahead and acquiring ahead is a prudent policy. (Or perhaps just OCD. Whatever.)

Thanks, all.

Let me add another piece. Superimposed on the above staging, I use 3 assumptions to guide me in a more systematic way:

1. what do I need to prepare to stay in COMPLETELY for (..fill in period of time). For the first wave of a pandemic, it would be about 3 months, but for a hurricane, for example, it might just be a few days.

2. what do I need to prepare if I assume ZERO medical support

3. what do I need to prepare if there are intermittent utilities and/or law-and-order failures

So for every stage, I would make sure I have covered all these categories before moving to the next stage. Apart from making sure you didn’t miss anything, if you were to build your preparations over a period of time, you will already have familiarized yourself with the issues involved in earlier planning stages. Paradoxically, it takes a lot more work to prepare for the early stages simply because of the effort involved initially in researching how best to cover a scenario and setting it up. After that, it’s just adding to the pile and building on what you already know.

Thanks for the focus, Anon_22. I agree with you almost completely. The one place where I would differ from you is that in my world view, as one goes to higher and higher levels, the focus of the provisioning changes. Thus in levels 0 and 1, there is an assumption that some sort of medical care or support ARE in fact available. As one goes much above that, then one must provide not only for one’s survival, but also for one’s own medical care.

Similarly, at lower levels, one can assume utilities and law/order are being held together and kept online, At some point in the higher levels, no such assumption can be made. Thus, the preparations made for lower levels require more concentration in some aspects (food,maintenance medicines) while preparations for higher levels may require more stockpiling (hoarding?) of critical goods including trade-goods, fuel and independant heat sources.

Thus the question of supporting you completely for X period of time is not linearly scalable, but rather a changing structure. Actually, that’s one reason I am taking a while to post each step, if it was just a matter of saying “Get you a big tub and fill it full of flour…” this would be easy. Then for the next level it would just be “Get you two big tubs…”

But you are spot on in that the mental preparations for lower levels is more work than for the higher levels simply because you must first learn to think about the problem in a manner supportive of self (and family) preservation.

Reasonable Preparations for Level 1

As stated previously, in Level 1 planning, we assume that the impact of the pandemic wave is roughly equivalent to that of a very bad seasonal flu outbreak. Since we have experienced these conditions many tmes before, the following conditions can be expected to occur:

1) Doctor’s offices and hospitals will saturate with walk-ins and phone calls seeking treatment guidance.

2) Hospitals will fill to capacity with patients who are experiencing serious impact from the flu and are in need of professional supportive care.

3) Pharmacies may experience spot shortages of the most frequently prescribed medicines

4) Supermarkets and other outlets may experience spot shortages of a wide variety of over-the-counter medicines and sick room supplies, including the basic remedies such as Tylenol, Expectorant cough medicines, decongestants, tissues and many, many others

5) Some businesses will experience slowdowns or operational problems due to high absentee rates

6) Doctor’s offices, hospitals, drug stores and supermarkets may be places at which you experience a higher than usual probability of being exposed to the influenza which is circulating.

7) Utilities (water,gas, electricity and telephone) may be reasonably expected to continue in normal operation, or at worst experience minor disturbances in service which will be corrected quickly.

Thus, the goal of Level 1 preparation will be to insure that you and your family have all of the supplies on-hand that you can anticipate needing in the event of such conditions. As I stated previously, my planning criterion for this level is the entire family is down with the flu simultaneously. Provisioning for this level is intended to cover this contingency, plus one additional outside problem, such as a severe winter storm.

While each individual doing the planning must determine his own requirements, the common areas to plan for are:

Food: There should be sufficient food in stock at all times to allow for proper feeding of the entire family for a period of at least two weeks, also assuming illness is rampant within the house. Thus, one should stock not only sufficient quantities of the normal day-to-day foods that the family would eat when healthy, but also sufficient foods to deal with possible major influenza as well. Thus, one should make sure to stock easy to prepare and easy to digest foods such as cream of wheat or rice cereals, dehydrated soup mixes, soft drinks, oral rehydration concoctions and anything else you or your Doctor normally recommend for an ill individual who may be nauseous, have diarrhea, or just be almost non-functional.

Medicines: Within this category fall both maintenance medicines and flu medicines. One should make sure that they have on hand, at all times, their normal maintenance medicines, plus an additional 2 week reserve that they never tap into, except to rotate it with fresh stock when they refill their prescriptions. I know that these days, it is hard to build a reserve supply of medicines when HMO’s literally monitor usage to the nearest pill, but there are still strategies with which one can accumulate a reserve (starting with purchasing the meds for cash,if possible). Then one should make sure to have whatever additional medicines could be anticipated to be needed on-hand in the event of serious illness (i.e a diabetic may need additional insulin to cover glycemic stresses due to flu, or may need additional oral meds to prevent HHNS [hyperglycemic-hyperosmolic nonketotic syndrome - very common in type II diabt]etics under severe illness conditions]). You should enlist the assistance of your Doctor in planning out what to have on-hand for this situation. It will be alot easier for the Doctor to speak to you by phone and tell you how to take a medicine which you have pre-positioned in your reserves than to have you visit his office or even call a prescription into a pharmacy for you to pick up.

Water: In a Level 1 situation, I would stock water out to fill the requirements of the entire family for the duration of the 2 week illness window. While I don’t anticipate losing water as part of any widespread failure of utilities, it is always possible that a local, or even household plumbing problem can shut down the supply till everyone is sufficiently well enough to tackle the repair.

Fuel for heat, Cooking, etc. - Here again, I don’t think that elaborate preparations in this regard are required for Level 1. Just enough to keep things running and livable in case of bad weather or some other possible hardware or localized system failure. You should already have provided for this in your Level 0 stock.

Batteries and Flashlights: Same as for fuel and heating supplies.

Information Resources: This would be a good time to compile a series of quick guides on what to do for anticipated health situatons, both flu in general, and the specific needs of any household members in particular. While the Web may still be fully available to you, how efficiently do you think you will be in looking up some critical care information for children or the elderly while you yourself are barely functional (I’ve had to do this once. It is really not what you want to be doing at that time). Pulling all of the information together into an easy to read and execute plan is something you should do now. It will also make sure that the first time you see the material is not during a crisis.

This represents an outline of what I view Level 1 planning to look like. Any additional views or contributions from the other forum members is encouraged.

Level 2 - Description of Conditions and Basic Planning criteria

The conditions I am using for planning at Level 2 is that there is a pandemic flu circulating around the world. It is moderately to very contagious, and of moderate virulence. Those people who take sick with it experience a severe case of flu. Many more patients will experience serious issues and complications arising from the infection, and a substantially larger than normal number of fatalities will occur among those groups normally affected adversely by the flu, and now some from those groups normally less affected. For my own planning purposes, I am assuming a death rate from the flu of 1–2 per thousand of population.

In my planning model for Level 2, the flu is beginning to have a substantially greater impact than is usually seen during a normal seasonal flu wave. Substantial numbers of people suffer bouts of the illness ranging from somewhat mild to those who proceed to life threatening severity, and those who while making it through the flu itself develop secondary respiratory (bacterial) infections.

The impact on daily life will be much more noticeable than at Level 1. At this level, whole businesses may close for a period of time due to some combination of excessive absenteeism due to illness, stay-at-homes who do not wish to expose themselves to potentially sick coworkers and the occasional death of key individuals within the business making it difficult to resume normal operations. Schools may close for some period during the height of the wave in any given area.

As in Level 1, there will be local shortages of prescription and over-the-counter medications and other supplies. Stores may have some difficulty in obtaining prompt resupply due to disruptions in staffing either in store personnel or in the delivery crews. As a result, there may be some localized shortages of a number of staple items at supermarkets, but not as a general shortage, just swaths of shelves here and there which are empty due to heavy demand and slow resupply.

Since the US depends heavily on “just in time” resupply, it is not clear to me whether there will be sufficient surge capacity to meet some demands for some products.

Doctor’s offices and hospitals will be substantially impacted. Not only will the demand for treatment exceed any normal or heavy flu season, but the trend over the past decade to reduce the equipment and staffing levels down from “peak” capable to “average” capable will mean that there are insufficient beds, staff and supplies to meet a quickly spreading flu wave of a nastier than usual flu. This coupled with illness among medical Care personnel will mean serious gaps in the ability of some to obtain timely and appropriate treatment.

As in the planning for Level 1, I personally feel it is prudent to assume that all of the members of your household will be down with this flu simultaneously. Since we already provided for this situation substantially in our Level 1 plan, we will now need to determine what additional supplies and preparations are required to get us safely through the Level 2 scenario.

In my next posting I’ll discuss what I consider to be appropriate preparation for the Level 2 condition.

Dear Eccles, I’m following your plan and figuring how to introduce it to my family who are still in LaLa Land. Please continue! Lorelle

Thanks for the encouragement! I was beginning to wonder whether anyone besides myself was actually reading this thread.

You should try to make a customized version of the plan as much as possible. What I am presenting is a general outline, but there is much personalization that you should do. Everyone has a different family situation, a different medical situation and a different environmental situation. In my case, for instance, there are specific medical supplies and plans that I need to have in position for a family member that would be of no benefit to the general population. I live in the snow belt and severe winters are the rule rather than the exception. Every year, we experience 1–2 major losses of power extending for about a day.

Also, it would be helpful to get your family “on-board” with the prearatons, if you can. While the need to plan and prepare is real, we need to realize that no human pandemic has yet “taken of” so there is still a bit of time to organize yourself to do this fficiently and calmly, rather than in “crash dive” mode.

That may come, but having an organized plan is the first step to effective preparation.

Eccles,

You are making an incredible contribution here. My family is “on board” with the flu and I’m sending them here to help them plan.

Eccles, you’re actively being read and thanked - in silence. :)

Stages of preparation: when do you do what?

Eccles,

I had another look at your staging and I would suggest that it may be better to use the EXTENT of the outbreak (similar to WHO pandemic staging or as mapped by Niman) rather than the IMPACT. This is because an outbreak’s impact on a particular society is a late result of the pandemic, not a leading indicator.

(For the benefit of a varied audience, my explanations may be a bit long. So feel free to skip ahead.)

This is similar to using unemployment figures as a leading indicator for inflation and therefore interest rates which in turn affect house prices, etc. In this example, the amount and speed by which house prices rise or fall would indicate how severe the impact is. If you use house prices as a guide for action, which incidentally is what most people do, you will likely end up buying high and selling low. This is because house prices represent EFFECT, which has a time-lag from the cause, and when an effect is apparent, the circumstances that caused that effect may already have changed. That’s why Wall Street holds its breath every time the unemployment number is going to come out, and that’s how they make their big bucks more frequently than you or I.

Back to the virus. One might say so okay I will look at the impact on other countries which already has the outbreak as a guide to my preparation. While this has some predictive value, the problem is that the impact on any single society is mitigated by many local variables such as poverty, lifestyle & diet, openness or competence of government, availability of health care, education level, etc. One needs to be able to make these adjustments to be able to say how the impact is likely to be where you live. If you have more than one country already affected, as in the present case, the whole thing becomes even harder. In contrast, it’s a lot easier for ordinary people to figure out the meaning of 5 people having died in China for example as opposed to 300+ dead. And despite the difficulty in getting accurate information, it is still far easier for us to obtain these numbers than to find out let’s say whether there is panic buying (impact) or whether hospitals are swarmed (another impact).

Put in another way, let’s take ‘impact approximates 1918 pandemic’ as a guide to switching from stage 2 to 3 preparations. Well, much of what we know about 1918 come from stories of army barracks with rows upon rows of dying soldiers unable to get a drink of water because nurses are overwhelmed or sick or dead. Or people dying at home with no one to bury them. Or official data that varies by many millions. I don’t know about you but I for one find it impossible to determine when I will know that this current problem is going to approximate 1918, and to be able to do that before we are all sick and dying, like 1918.

We all want our crystal ball. Alas, it doesn’t exist. One can only try our best; and our best consists of nothing more than a collection of good educated guesses.

Hence the need for the Flu Wiki…

(to be continued in next post..)

Anon_22

While I understand the reasoning behind your comments, I must respectfully disagree with your basic premise, and that is that the approaching Pandemic is the event which triggers an individual to implement a program of preparation and provisioning. Rather, the premise behind the planning levels which I am describing is to provide a methodology for an individual of finite means to set a series of targets they can meet so that they can prepare and provision in the quickest time with the least expenditure of effort and money. And then get on with the rest of their lives.

By working through each of the planning and provisioning levels the individual is not only better prepared from a logistical perspective, but also from a mental perspective.

In this regard, the geographic extent of an outbreak is less important than the immediate expression of that outbreak on ones own circumstances. While an outbreak may have spread extensively through Asia, from a narrow logistical perspective, from the standpoint of personal planning, the only two factors that concern me are (1) is it here yet and do I need to isolate, and (2) how does this effect the availability of food, shelter, warmth and all of the other supplies I and my family need to live on.

I am assuming that very few of the readers of this thread are capable of the financial, logistical and emotional investment that will come with level 5, which is what I term Pandemic Plague. That would essentially be a modern re-enactment of the Black Death. I personally believe that there is a very low (nearly zero) probability that we will see that eventuality. But if we do, those who have planned to deal with that level of impact will be as well equipped as they can make themselves, limited only by their financial means and their imaginations. Those of us whose planning falls short of that level will have done so because we made a conscious decision that we were not going to plan to deal with those conditions.

While governments, policy makers and strategic planners may need to concern themselves with the details of geographic distribution and spread, from an individual planning standpoint, the question really comes down to “Do I have enough propane to get through this situation”, “do I have enough food so that we don’t have to go out and about at the peak of a wave as it passes through this area”, “Do I have the Tamiflu/Amoxicillin/Unobtanium to carry us through a shortage because the local medical system has been swamped”.

By describing staged planning methods and illustrating how they can be applied to the pandemic situation, I hope to show my friends on this Wiki that preparation does not have to be a choice between inaction and a full survivalist makeover.

So in my world view, I actually feel the immediate effect and my ability to carry on through it is of much greater concern to me than the extent of the disease on an international scale.

Please, please continue, Eccles! I’m waiting with baited breath for the next level!

Hi Eccles and Annon!

Thank you for all your hard work!

Eccles, thanks for your thoughful words several days ago, on another thread. I tried to write you back, but my computer went off-line and I gave up.

Annon, I tried to talk to doc. the other day about switching my children to an inhaler with spacer. He gave me a box of Nasonex. I think we weren’t on the same page. I tried to talk to him about BF, but these docs here aren’t interested. Do either of you know where I could get Probenecid, without a prescription, online? I found a place, but it didn’t give the origin. Do you feel it is safe to order from Mexico. Also, what antibiotics would you recommend keeping on hand for strep, ear infections, respiratory, just general infections. What would be recommended for pneumonia, especially caused by flu? I have 90 (250 mg. tabs of amoxicill and 10 cefdinir capsules (300 mg.) I have insurance, but one doc says she’s ready to meet her maker and another told me he isn’t worried about BF, because he never catches anything. Well I’m worried, my chicks aren’t ready to meet their maker and they catch everything! I’m trying to get all my failies medical needs ready for “plague pandemic.” These kids have so many needs and I don’t want them to go without their meds and I don’t want to have to take them out of here for something not life threatening. They are on 26 maintenace meds, so this part of my plan is actually harder than putting six months of food etc. away.

I worry everyday, about my grown children and their families. They will not even discuss this me. They think I’m crazy. The thing is, I have never done anything like this before, never! I just can’t prepare for all of them, states away, physically or mentally. The only thing I can do for them is keep trying to educate them. I know if this flu mutates, even if I can protect these 6 here, I’m surely going to have a lot of heartbreak!

I so appreciate all of your help, the time away from your own families, your own lives to help moms, such as me, protect our own!

Tucks - thanks for the encouragement. The next installment will have to wait till tomorrow. It’s too late to do the next pieces correctly. My brain has just gone to STANDBY.

Mom11 - I have been reading of your complex needs and very real concerns about the health and safety of your flock. Not being an MD (I’m just a propeller-head), I can’t in good conscience begin to advise you on what particular medicines you should stock. My own reaction to the questions about mail ordering meds from Mexico is “Bad Idea”. I have no factual information about the safety of meds from mexico, I ust wouldn’t do it for myself or my family. You must reach your own conclusions.

Mom11, as I have said in other threads, I am absolutely amazed at the energy and determination with which you have attacked your preparations. I know that your family has the best protector I have ever met on their side. As I get the rest of this thread put together, I hope you’ll be able to post some of your experiences with preparing for higher levels as a counter balance to my pontificating. I’m sure the rest of the community can benefit from your hands-on experiences as you’ve stockpiles against the higher levels.

Eccles!

Thanks for your kind words! I figured you all thought…Mom11…Kook

I know my plan is extreme, but it is the only thing I can think off, that will ptotect my children. Having Dad go in and out of an automotive manufacturing work environment, stopping for daily coffee, packs of cigs., frequent library visits…isn’t going to work. Taking these kids out and risking the virus coming back home,, maybe infecting them all..isn’t going to work…trying to isolate a sick child and keeping the others way…isn’t going to work….especially with my 12 year old, who is all over the place. Bringing this virus into these doors isn’t going to work, not with kids with rotten lungs, kidney problems, immune system problems and severe mental illness ( and more!) Yes! My plan is a 5!

I’d be glad to write about my 5 plans. You can e-mail me if you want and let me know what info you would want. I’m sure a lot of my junk is emotional and boring!

Took my son back today. Long trip and I’m worn out! Now I have to start stressing about getting him home for Christmas!

Mom11 - I’m a bit away from getting into what my views of preparations for Level 5 conditions are. Since you are actively running at full speed, let me just suggest that you start thinking about long-term survival. Renewable fuel sources/solar energy, and how you will grow your own food. Under severe enough conditions, the availability of manufactured products may be very limited for some time to come.

I’m still finishing the Level 2 planning summary, so I’ll be a while yet getting into Level 5. In this type of planning structure, that means that any advice I give beyond this point would, of necessity, be incomplete. As a first exercise, you should sit down calmly for a few minutes and reflect upon what the econoic and social conditions might be at each of the successive levels from 2 up to 5 to gain a head start in the planning process.

Also, reflect upon the possibility, as suggested by history, that isolation in the face of a severe viral wave may only delay, but not prevent, exposure and subsequent illness.

Reasonable Preparations for Level 2

As stated previously, the assumed impact of the Pandemic wave is that of a severe influenza wave more severe than even the worst of seasonal flu years.

As we begin to anticipate the conditions associated with higher planning levels, it becomes more difficult to accurately predict just what will actually be occuring. Thus, our plans should include sufficient lattitude to allow for things going differently than we had thought. This usually means over stocking rather than under stocking. It would be better to be surprised by the fact that things were not as bad as you had planned for, rather than discovering that things were worse than you had provisioned for. Also, since this is a planning exercise, I am electing to state the worst case conditions below. This is not a prediction of how things will actually be during a Level 2 wave, just an attempt to cover all bases…..

From this level upward, it is important that each planner take into account the individual circumstances of their own situation as a major planning point. Thus, where you live, what size town you live in or near, extended family who may need help or shelter all come into play. It is not possible for me to advise you about your own situation, you need to sit down and consider fully what may occur during a flu wave.

I anticipate the following conditions to occur:

1) Doctor’s offices will become unreliable as a source of care. Individual offices may have insufficient staff available to remain open, or will be so overworked that access will be very limited.

2) Hospitals will be overtaxed by the caseload that is presented to them. Along with staff shortages due to illness, there will most probably be shortages of some of the basic supplies and medicines that are needed to continue full operation. Patients may well be triaged such that only the most critically ill will be admitted (or even seen).

3) Local pharmacies will probably be out of stock of many of the medicines needed for flu treatment. Since their supply chain may be overloaded and under staffed, the “just in time” delivery scheme may no longer work for all items at all times.

4) Supermarkets and other outlets may experience shortages of some items, such as experienced in our Level 1 planning. In this case, those shortages will probably be wider (more items), deeper (shortages more acute) and linger than we had planned for in Level 1. In some cases, the shelves may be cleared of some items in response to either actual need, or panic needs. Which items will be affected is not accurately predictable.

5) Businesses will experience high absenteeism. Some employees will be out due to illness, some due to fear of coming out, and here and there due to death either of themselves or of a close family member.

6) Going out in public represents a very real risk of exposure and infection. Visits to stores or other public accomodations will need to be done with the full understanding of the risks involved. Proper protective measures and hygiene are mandatory.

7) Utilities will continue to operate, but if staffing shortages develop, there may be some failures in localized settings. If the sytems are challenged by a major external event such as a winter storm, it may take a substantial time before full services are restored to all. If a catastrophic event ocurs, it is possible that outages could take weeks to months before services are fully restored.

As in the previous planning levels, your goal is to insure that you have whatever supplies can be anticipated to be needed by your family during this condition. From this level on up, it is also prudent to determine in advance what you would do if faced with certain contingencies. (Examples: Old Aunt Tillie from the City calls and asks if she can come out and live with you as things are cold hungry and scary where she lives. Or some member of your family takes seriously ill to the extent that a hospital is the only alternative. Who goes with, who stays home? Who returns home from the hospital which will be a focus point of infection. If not, where do they go? What if they were turned away at the door?)

As in previous planning levels, we will start with the assumption that you are building upon a base of a full complement of supplies for the previous level. Your individual planning will depend to a great degree on your own circumstances and values. Do you intend to go into isolation while the rest of the world faces the influenza. Will you remain out in your community? Will you volunteer to help others? All of these will create different planning situations. How you proceed is strictly up to you. Some basic guidelines:

Food: Build up from the two week supply you laid away for Level 1. At this point, at a minimum, you should be able to go without any outside supplies of any sort for at least 4–6 weeks. You need to look at shelf stable items such as ultrapasteurized milk to fill in some of the normally fresh foods you buy frequently. Bread can either be replaced by rice or pasta, or else you might acquire a bread machine and start using it now, so you are fully comfortable with it and the bread it produces. Sufficient flour and other ingredients to turn out enough bread to go that long would then become a stocking item.

At this point don’t forget comfort foods. The situation will probably be stressful and depressing to you and your family. A supply of whatever foods you find soothing and comforting will be a valuable addition to your stock.

Medicines: Building on top of your Level 1 preparations, you should now increase your reserves of your maintenance medicines to last for 6 weeks. If you are on maintenance meds, it makes little sense to provide for food and water if you also don’t have a supply of the meds you need to keep you healthy and functioning. As in Level 1, you should endeavor to work with your Doctor to preposition those medicines which he thinks will be needed in the event of a severe influenza outbreak. As in Level 1, you should plan to work with your Doctor to understand when and how he would want those reserves used.

Toiletries - You should remember to include sufficient toothpaste, toothbrushes, toilet paper and anything else you will find you need to maintain a comfortable and familiar lifestyle. You use it anyway, so it can easily be rotated out of a standing stock as needed during “normal” times.

Clothing and Laundry products - Remember that during an extended period, you will need sufficient clothing to maintain a healthy and sanitary existence. This is especially true if you have ill family members. Bedding and bedclothes may need to be cleaned multiple times during such an illness. Even without power, I have managed to wash some simple things in a sink using detergent and warm water. Be prepared to improvise if need be. Make sure you have enough clothing so that if you need to go out, you can change into fresh apparel on the way in so you can disinfect your outdoor clothes. A plentiful supply of bleach and white vinegar would be a good idea.

Water: I still don’t personally think you need to worry about substantial stocks of water. A two week supply should be adequate except for situations in which you derive your water from an electrically pumped well. Then if you do not have a backup generator such that you can pump water into storage after the loss of power, you should prepare a supply sufficient to last for the 6 weeks of this planning period. I would still not maintain this large of a stock during “normal” times, but would rather wait until it is obvious that an illness wave is a real probability. Then I would fill my stock. It would therefore be prudent to acquire sufficient acceptable storage containers for the purpose now, and stroe them until needed. For planning purposes, assume that you will need to have at least 1 gallon perperson per day as a minimum. Don’t forget that a water heater tank holds 30–60 gallons, and so can be counted into the stock for planning purposes.

Backup Lighting and Heating (Cooling) - At this point, your planning should begin to take into account the possible need to operate for some periods of time without utilities. As I noted above, it is anticipatble that due to absenteeism, the utilities may be hard pressed to keep things up, and may have great difficulty fixing things when they break. I do not, however anticipate that the utilities will be off, as a general rule, at this level.

Depending on your life style, there are many (and some very expensive) things you can do to support your comfort during extended outages. In my case, I have a generator large enough to run and heat the house. Unfortunately, to do this full time, I would require about 15–20 gallons of gasoline per day. Obviously this won’t be how things can go for weeks at a time. So think about how you would retreat into a more manageable “survival module” within your home, allowing portions of the house to run cold and dark. You will therefore require far less energy. Solar cookers, solar battery chargers and the sun coming into a Sotuh facing window are all areas to look into.

To keep things habitable, I have on hand auxiliary propane heaters which can operate far more economically than a whole-house generator. You need to plan this kind of appliance with care. Carbon monoxide and fire are always dangers with these devices, so you must have appropriate CO monitors and extinguishers at hand to support your use of the heater.

Battery consumption of lighting devices is a very important but manageable issue. Incandescent flashlights are about the worst consumers of battery power. Flashlights which use LEDs and area lights which use compact fluorescent lamps are far more energy efficient. As an example, I have a fluorescent area light which runs for 20 or more hours on 4 D cells. I have a bunch of LED flashlights which will run 40–50 hours on 3 AA batteries. if you will be depending on batteries for light for any period, then you will need to look into more modern devices than the old fashioned flashlight.

Radio - I personally have a hand cranked radio that runs for about an hour on 100 turns of a crank. It never requires batteries. Or you can insert rechargeables and run for hours on an extended period of cranking.

Information resources: Same message as before. Do your research now. before you are in a stressful, or dangerous situation.

Again, this is a planning exercise first and foremost. Sit down and ask yourself “What will I be doing during such a situation?” then based on what you determine, you need to plan out how you will deal with normal and abnormal situations and what supplies you will need on hand to deal with them. Once you have made a detailed list of the required supplies, you can figure out how you are going to acquire and store them.

I am not able to provide you with specific instructions on provisioning your family, just planning recommendations and general guidelines. You will need to take over from here.

Next time - Level 3, where anyone’s imagination will be challenged

Mom11, don’t feel alone. I’ve always been the “crazy mom” on our block. When the other moms were getting their hair and nails done, I was spending money on herbs and making soap. I always felt like the things we take so for granted will one day dissolve (like patroleum) and I wish we were more focused on basics, like food production. We have a great network of sustainable businesses including local farmers, who are trying to keep connected on a local level. If trucking breaks down, we will depend on the Amish farmer to haul veggies in his horse buggy. So we better start supporting him now so he can stay in business.

Back to the subject, thank you Eccles for the thoughtful organized writing. I plan to talk to our block captain and see what we can do as a block, like have some provisions stored at several homes for community cooking, so the house that isn’t hit by flu could cook something to send out on paper plates to unprepared and elderly folks. Better than doing nothing. The worst I can imagine is people giving up while all hell breaks loose. We have to do the best we can. thanks again, looking for the next level of planning.

I agree with Mom11, nice work Eccles. I too wait with baited breath.

I believe the next level of preparedness is community preparedness.

Perhaps “we the people” can organize that the basic stuff does travel?

Just a thought.

Lugon -

I agree that community preparedness is perhaps the key to a good outcome to a pandemic. I however, am just a small voice on a Wiki, while there isa sea of cynical, politically motivated voices calling the shots for us all. So the best I can do for now is to keep presenting my ideas about how to plan for individual preparedness. Anyone who would like to expand these thoughts into ideas for a community based preparation is certainly a welcome addition. As we get into planning for higher levels, it will become very lonely and depressing indeed.

If I succeed in getting any kind of united thought on this subject from my neighborhood, I’ll let you-all know how it goes.

Thanks Eccles for your contributions. When I first began planning for a potential pandemic, I felt overwhelmed (sometimes still do) but I’m getting there. I feel I’m pretty well prepared for levels 0 and 1, but still building on it, and beginning to think about level 2. Your method of preparing helps break the planning down into more digestible pieces without giving me heartburn!

Keep up the great work.

That’s the point to using this methodology, which I have adapted from the kind of engineering program management analysis I do for a living. Instead of dispairing of how do you build a whole city, do it a piece at a time, from the bottom up. It is easier to get your arms around that way. It also lets you find the spots you can bypass for now and get back and solve later.

Eccles, you must be very sucessful at your job! I use a similar process for my job researching and writing on very complex legal issues. However, these preparations could mean the difference between life and death for my children, and trying to balance the fear (panic) with logical preparations is a daunting task. It is also a fine line between rational preparations for a potential pandemic and spending lots of money on items (masks, tamiflu, etc., that we may never need). I guess it all goes with our level of comfort for the risk. Personally, although I’ve bought medical supplies and some masks (no tamiflu), so far I’ve only purchased items I could reasonably use in any other emergency situation (snow storm, etc.) I like the concept you’ve developed of preparing in steps. Thanks again.

Water is going to be a big problem, particularly at the upper stages. This is most notably true when it comes to cleaning bedding and clothes of the sick. This is a big task and will require lots of water. Three things that would need to be answered, provided you have an adequate water supply. How are you going to heat the water? Where are you going to hold that water? How are you going to dry the wash? These may seem like simple questions but if you have no power, where does the heat come from? If you are washing multiple times a day, what are you heating the water in and who is doing that? Do you have an outdoor clothes line? Clothes pins? What if it’s raining? What if its not safe to go outside?

Certainly in large cities a fundamental problem, if we experience a large percentage of sick and dying, is who is going to run the infrastructure. Do you know how to keep a water treatment plant going?

What about volunteering to keep a city or town functional? Can you? Will you?

PeterR, you bring up some good points. First of all, I was not planning to heat water for laundry. I read somewhere that hot water causes bleach to be less effective. I think that simply washing in cold water, soap, and bleach will be sufficient. I already line-dry a lot of items in my basement and would probably set up a clothes line outside in the summer.

I can’t imagine that it will be unsafe to go outside. If that’s the case, one could not even cook outside. I think it would be impractical to think you could completely seal your house from outside air. You need some air circulation in the winter to run many heaters, and in the summer it would be completely unbearable if you couldn’t open the windows.

As far as volunteering to keep a city or town functional, being an attorney, I would feel a professional responsibility to my community to step up to the plate to help keep our city government running if there was a problem. No, I don’t know how to keep a water treatment plant going, but I’d be willing to learn and coordinate like-minded community members willing to pitch in. That’s what a community is all about, right? (Maybe I could take over as mayor - just kidding, but definitely would do it if needed). Ultimately, keeping our community services running will be beneficial to my family, so sure, I would do it.

As PeterR rightly points out, water becomes an increasing problem at the upper levels. One strategy that we should keep in mind is that under normal circumstances the advice would be to save the wash water to re-use as flush water. (For those who don’t know, you can flush a toilet with nothing more than a bucket of water). Under these circumstances, where the wash water may itself be infectious, then would it be prudent to save it for that purpose. How about if strongly bleached? And then, what would that do to the septic systems many of us are using to dispose of sewage. Would all that bleach kill the bacterial activity in a septic system if that was all we sent down there?

Mom11, Here’s a link to a supplier of vet meds.

You will have to do some research to see which meds are equivalent to human meds.

Stocking them now while they are available might make sense.

http://lambriarvet.com/sbsite.php

There are others sold by Lambriar beside the ones on the above page, search their website or call them, for your fish, of course.

Eccles, please consider a very small and quiet generator like the Honda 1000EU, about 800 watts continuous output.

You can can charge 2 golf cart batteries at a 40 amp charge rate in a few hours and with little fuel using the appropriate Vector brand charger [some Walmarts, (don’t buy the Schumaker brand, I’ve had trouble w/ them)].

Add a medium sized inverter about 800 watts peak output, and you have an excellent general purpose power source for smaller loads.

Imagination, creativity, and an understanding of novel application of available items to provide practical solutions to everyday problems will be necessary if this issue goes beyond your stage 2.

Mom11, I briefly read about some of the health problems in your family and I think your family would benefit from taking IP6 rice bran extract. For more info go to www.knowledgeofhealth.com Stay away from aspertame and especially MSG!(top ramen),fastfood,ect also check out www.internationalhealth.com and read the raw truth section. Very good info that may help your family.

Expy -

That’s a very good suggestion. I actually have planned a bit differently, but with the same end. I just picked up 2 150 watt inverters from WOOT on one of their sales. At the 150W level, and using compact fluorescent lights (which we use anyway), One can do a nice job of illuminating most of the house from the ciggy lighter outlet in one of the cars. Or from the tractor starter battery (small 18HP garden tractor, but it can charge itself or other storage batteries quickly). I already have a 17 AH Lead/Calcium battery from an old AT&T surplus lot that I use for emergency backup with some radio equipment. The neat thing about a car is that it has its own charger and can run fairly quietly.

The question is what I could run better if I went up to the Golf Cart batteries, the larger inverter and the Honda generator. The big issue is that the biggest single need here is for power to run the well pump. The little Honda won’t do that (my 5KW Honda does it just fine), nor will the mid-sized inverter. The big generator also runs refrigeration and baseboard heaters. I’m not sure whether the 800W inverter can run a fridge or freezer. If it could, then maybe I should add them to the equipment roster.

But as you point out, imagination and a willingness to improvise will be an essential survival skill at the higher levels. Its just such inputs as yours that can help our friends learn novel ways to help themselves and their families.

(By the way, a possible other suitable battery type would be a Deep Discharge marine battery. For those who are interested in using a similar suggestion to Expy37AT’s, an old car battery is not very suitable for this job because of its internal design. A car battery is intended primarily to start a car. If one slowly and deeply discharges it, and then recharges it, one will quickly end up destroying the thin inner plates that create the power that it delivers. This structure allows the battery to deliver the incredibly high currents needed for a few seconds during starting. Golf cart batteries and trolling motor batteries are built differently and are designed to deliver low to medium current, but for a long time, and then fully recharge afterwards with no degradation. If you have ever destroyed a car battery by leaving your headlights on one single time, you will appreciate the difference.)

Eccles,

I hadn’t had time to follow up with part 2 of what I was going to write. I guess the main thing is that the more suggestions we put here on the wikie, the more likely each individual can put together a plan based on a composite of different ideas.

So Making Plans on Limited Resources:

Making plans based on what you can afford and making plans based on the worst case scenario don’t have to be mutually exclusive. It depends on the kind of emergency you are planning for. Since this forum is about H5N1, my discussions are purely about that and not any other emergencies.

My suggestion would be do a lot of research upfront and, pretending for a moment that you have unlimited resources, write up a list of everything that you would need to survive a pandemic. Review that thoroughly and with other people to make sure you haven’t missed anything. Call this your Master List.

THEN start figuring out what are the critical stuff that you MUST have. You will see that those will include a lot that are not expensive at all, like water or making backup communication plans with your family. That can become let’s say List #1, things that you will do immediately.

Then there are the things that are essential such as food or disinfectants, or tylenol. These become List #2. Figure out how much money you can spare right now and spread that money to cover as many items on list 2 as possible, even though the quantity of each may be small. So the 5th box of breakfast cereal is less important than your first bottle of bleach. You can see that you won’t know to do that unless you have already got a complete list of everything that you need.

List #3 would be things that would improve your quality of life but not essential. For example my sister asked me whether she should get spirulina because someone told her they are good for flu. Given that she hadn’t started on food yet and with a tight budget, I said if a bottle of spirulina costs the same as 2 weeks worth of basic foods, go for the food first. Same goes for tylenol or bleach.

So a generator would fall into #3, whereas your first 5 gallons of gas should probably on #1, the next 5 gallon belong to #2, depending on where you live.

(BTW I just learnt from a different post that your car can be your generator if you get a DC/AC inverter, remembering of course to run it in open air only. That’s why this forum is so useful)

The plan would be to start now to do all of list 1 and spread out your spending to cover a bit of almost everything on list 2. Once that’s all done, you can build on the rest over time as more money becomes available. Remember to review your Master List from time to time, keeping in mind that the Master List is for the worst case scenario. As the situation evolves, you will find yourself adding or deleting stuff from it.

Sorry, I didn’t make myself clear. Master List is what you need to survive the worst case scenario kind of pandemic, like bodies piling up or social unrest.

Anon_22 -

The prioritized list approach is an excellent suggestion. Especially, as you point out, in that it allows you to see which expenditures are the most valuable for your provisions at any given time. Thus, as you said, 2 weeks of food would certainly come before 1 bottle of Spirulina.

We use a similar technique in industry to apportion scarce equipment money when we get it. We make a list of everything we need and want (i.e. requirements and desirements) with the most critical and necessary items at the top, and then in priority order downward. We then go down the list until the money we have been allocated is fully spoken for. Hence the phraseology that an item is “above the line” or “below the line”.

Your approach allows an individual to allocate their own scarce resources and come out with a clear idea of which items are above or below the line for the present time.

People dealing with lists, and lists of lists, may want to look into outliners, also called outline editors.

I tend to use http://www.vimoutliner.org which is both open source and multiplatform, but not necessarily easy to use for newbies. A good thing about it is that the data format is plain text so files can be shared easily.

While we’re at it, folks may want to look at “Getting things done” by David Allen http://www.davidco.com The chart of “actionable stuff” is good: each thing that comes into your inbox gets sorted into “I can do it in two minutes or less” (so you just do it), “I will do it at this time and date” (postponed), etc. This may be useful for some of us, not for others. The trick is to keep it simple, of course, as we really want to “get things done”.

Just keeping a “flu prep” notebook will be more than enough for most of us. Or a paper file with all the lists + a couple of pencils + a sharpener.

Eccles, when do you think it will be most useful to print this whole page out? I mean, two more postings of yours, ten more, how many? Thanks!

Of course, if you want to print this page, the best thing is to use the “print” text-button at the top-right corner of the page. This reformats the page so you don’t have to cut too many trees.

Eccles,

My goal when using a generator is to charge the batteries as quickly as practical while using the least amount of fuel. That dictates a small generator like the one I described above that sips fuel while charging up the batts. [2 golf cart batts and 40 amps charge current].

Running an automobile engine to charge its internal battery or external ones isn’t fuel efficient.

I agree that for high load items such as your pump, it might be best to use the 5kw genny for brief periods.

“I’m not sure whether the 800W inverter can run a fridge or freezer…”

It won’t be practical to run a fridge or freezer off of a small battery bank and 800w inverter.

If the BF goes H2H, there may very well be an abundance of gasoline and diesel for some time. On the other hand there may not.

Baseboard heat, appliances, etc, will be viable with a sufficiently large generator if plentful supplies of fuel exist.

If fuel becomes critical, forget fridges, freezers and switch to food supplies that require no refrigeration.

Same with heating and food prep, be prepared to go with kerosene or propane or both backing each other up.

My comments are based around worst case fuel conditions when every quart of fuel usage is critical.

Golf cart batts are the best bang for the buck for an expedient backup power system that provides limited power over long periods of time. I’m talking for powering energy efficient TV’s, satellite receivers, radios, computers [again choose the components for least current draw].

[Preppers might want to subscribe to satellite radio and sat TV in case local media is off the air, for comfort time relaxing as well as the best news available.]

[XM is very portable and can be carried in a bugout bag.]

These batteries cost about $44 each at Sams Club. Can’t be beat.

Charging them w/ solar, if you have it, and next in line, a small genny, is best.

I’ve used both deep discharge marine and golf cart batts in this ap and I can assure you the golf’s are superior.

We can get real deep into this subject, and I’d be happy to contribute ideas.

One final suggestion for someone who is going to depend on the sort of system described above is a good means to evaluate battery condition.

Hydrometers work fairly well, however I just became aquanted with handheld refractometers.

Wonderful and amazing devices that are so much more accurate and easy to use than hydrometers!

Search Battery Refractometer on eBay, you’ll see them for about $35 and up.

They are also available to check urine specific gravity for the Tamiflu reuse procedure that’s been described.

Lugon - Since this page is a living document with constant inputs and comments, it will never be “finished”. In terms of my own planned inputs, there are still 4 or 5 additional long postings yet to go. I’m just finding that my job really cuts into my day and so things are not moving as quickly as I would like.

OUTLINING TOOLS Don’t forget the most available tools out there for outlining, and those are the ones built into your word processor or presentation software. Both the Microsoft Office suite of programs (i.e. WORD and POWERPOINT) and the OpenOffice suite as well have outline processors built right into the programs. I suspect most of the folks on this Wiki have those tools right on their desktop.

If not, OpenOffice (from www.openoffice.org) is a full featured office suite that is available in many,mnay languages for many platforms.

Whether you use one of these programs, a PDA or a ratty old notebook, the main idea is to organize your thoughts into a plan, write it down somwewhere in some form, and then execute it. One of the great things about the electronic method is you can keep rearranging the prioritized list so the most important items bubble to the top. But a pencil and paper do nearly as well if you keep at it.

Newbie here, I’ve been lurking for a couple weeks. Love this thread and relieved to see I’m not to far off on my preps. One thing I’ve noticed that hasn’t been mentioned is the use of Tylenol suppositories. Although I’m a nurse, I haven’t practiced since my kids were born, I know how invaluable that med is when dealing with an extremely ill pt who is either too sick to swallow or having intense nausea and vomitting and can’t keep anything down. Many times the flu has intense GI upsets associated with it.

Besides stocking up on reg Acetamenophen I also have enough suppositories in the proper dosage for each kid and my husband and I for at least 5 days round the clock dosing. This isn’t normally found on the shelves here in the US, but behind the counter. Which is odd since it’s an OTC drug. Even then I had to have the pharmacist special order it since they only had two boxes on hand.

Like I said I’ve been lurking for awhile and may have missed it on other sites. If so then ignore this.

tcfromva,

I’m not a specialist (not medically qualified at all.)

Tylenol (AFAIR) could cause renal and liver problems.

Consider the case of a patient who is dehydrated (vomiting, nausea, excessiver sweating) do you want to give that patient tylenol per rectum?

If you’re really concerned about the temperature of your patient, then may I suggest the following?

Strip the patient. Put patient between cotton sheets. Soak top sheet with water. Provide a constant (strong) flow of air.

Sounds harsh? - It is. I had a temp of 105 going up. The doctor said ‘If we don’t cool you, you die.’ Outside temp about 27, so they opened a window and put a fan on me.

It was unpleasant. If the patient gets really hot, make him really cold - don’t piss about with meds which ‘might help’ - there isn’t time.

Rupert,

You’re right that an extremely ill and seriously debilitated pt who has become severly dehydrated may suffer toxic effects from overdosing with tylenol.

But from what I understand of this virus, a percentage will become so ill so fast that little can be done for them now, let alone when the health care system becomes crippled and supplies and equipment are nonexistant.

Another percentage could survive if given all the high tech care and meds that are available right now. But in the middle of a pandemic that won’t be happening either.

But the third category will be the largest, and most can and will be cared for at home. These pts. will also have the high fever for several days, and yes dehydration will be your constant worry as the care giver. So you will need to keep the fever down with tylenol or ibuprophen, and give 24/7 supportive care mainly in the form of fluids.

At the worst stage this will mean just drops at a time. This can keep a pt who is fairly healthy without other underlying health problems going. Children and infants are harder to keep hydrated but it’s possible with more creative effort. (Again this becomes way more complicated for anyone with chronic or acute health problems. And these pts likely will be admitted to the hospital for care.) Everyone else who has family members who are fairly healthy and not suffering from the more debilitating forms of the virus will surely be told to care for their loved ones at home as they’ll have no room in the inn.

Eventually the drops will increase to sips. You can use your pt’s urine output as a indicator of how dry they are. If they are putting out even just small amounts during their worst hours your on the right track and using tylenol at it’s appropriate dosage will be safe.

If your pt goes down the tubes and there’s no urine, high fever, no oral intake going on or staying down then I would get ahold of a health care provider and get advice. The advice might very well be give and antiemetic for the nausea (suppository again) and tylenol suppository for the ferver. If you don’t already have these things during the pandemic, believe me you won’t find them Every one will already be scooped up by the hospitals.

And yes, as you mentioned there will most likely be spikes in temp that will need short term fast cooling with cool air or tepid water baths. But I caution anyone not to use cold water and freezing air etc. without talking with a doc. This can be very stressful for an already stressed pt. Yes, I have had to cool pts with 105 degree temps (including my own children) and you sit and sponge them with tepid water or better yet in a tepid bath for what seems like forever, but it works. This is not a method to use for the duration of the illness, you can’t treat a 103 degree fever for 3 days with cold air. But if you keep round the clock dosing of tylenol or ibuprophen, again with the proper dosage, give as much fluids as you can humanely pour down their throats the vast majority will get through this.

Of course I’m assuming you don’t have strong feelings against meds for religious reasons. But if this is the case, then of course do as you think right.

I don’t have any problems with meds for religious reasons (and I’m not prepared to get into arguments with peope who do - if you have such problems, keep thewm out of my face.)

When a patient’s temperature begins to rise uncontrollably, the clinical imperative is to reduce the temperature. NSAIDS are the usual means.

When I was 21 (pretty good immune system) I ‘fought off’ an illness. Typical kid. We were due to have our New Year Ball (serious major event) I was a newly commissioned officer and I sure as hell wasn’t going to pass up on a party.

On new year’s eve I woke up. Just. I crawled to my car. I couldn’t walk. Got to the hospital amd Jenny (my doc) put me into bed.

I’ll remember that as long as I live.

Jenny was quite attractive; I was 21 (loads of hormones)

She stripped me and said - I’m quite impressed Rupert - but that won’t last!

She pulled a sheet over me, poured water on it and opened the window. It was about 27 outside and the wind was blowing in.

I had pneumonia. My temp was 105 +. NSAIDS might’ve helped. but IMO, Jenny got it right. By all means use chemicals *if they*re necessary* but first of all, why not try basic remedies?

Jenny ‘fixed’ me with cold water. It was extremely unpleasant, but it did allow her to use other drugs (and I’m allergic to penicillin) to cure the pneumonia.

Life can be hard at times - but then you die ;).

Eccles, hello! Thank you so much for putting so many of the jumbled thoughts I have been struggling with, into such a comprehensive model. It will help tremendously. I think I’ve gotten past the initial panic stage and moving toward clear-headed decision making (thanks, too, to lugon for the link regarding outliners. That’s my preferred method of organizing info. I would remind you (very gently, of course) that many many people are living “close to the edge” financially these days…particularly in my neck of the woods, which is hard-hit Mississippi, still reeling from Katrina devastation. I don’t think any of us can imagine how difficult it will be for survivors of that storm to try to focus their minds and energy on preparing for another disaster. Talk about being on the edge….so many folks with no home to stockpile food in, no paycheck to use for purchasing anything they can anticipate needing…that list can go on and on. I fear for them.

Of particular concern to me….the many elderly citizens who depend so heavily on non-family member caregivers for all of their needs. Meals on Wheels volunteers, home care nurses and aides, physical therapists, housekeeping people who come in for a few hours a week to do grocery buying and general housework….the elderly are barely able to remain in their homes, even with all this assistance; if those caregivers fail to appear due to illness or fear, what will become of these helpless ones? It will be impossible to find care for them in nursing facilities on short notice. I sincerely hope Eccles will continue to focus his/her? considerable organizational skills on community issues like this one. We need you.

I wonder if any of you are like me….anticipating the morning when I click on CNN for a weather report, only to find Breaking News, accompanied by orchestrated theme music and scary headline title such as “Bird Flu: The Terror Begins”. Then we get the news that Homeland Security is urgently trying to contact 150 passengers who arrived in New York two or three days ago, all of whom were exposed to the virus carried by an asymptomatic traveler on their flight. I don’t know how many of you have dealt with big disasters like Katrina, but I can tell you from personal experience that you will not believe how quickly things like Tylenol and bread and chicken soup, etc., will disappear from grocery store shelves. As the panic sets in, no one cares about anyone other than their loved ones. Once they feel fairly secure that they can feed and treat their illnesses to some degree of comfort, many will begin to reach out to neighbors and community. But they will have hoarded the necessities they believe they need first. Rumors spread like wildfire, particularly on issues like food/water/gas shortages and you will be in a competition with others to see who can be first in line to purchase these things when they become available. Fear will have you buying more than you need, just in case. Someone will not get the provisions his family needs because of it. You won’t care, as long as you are able to provide care to your family. Feeling guilty will begin after the crisis has ended and you learn of those who did not manage as well as yours did.

To Mom11: Your focus is amazing and I wish you well with all your preparations. You’ve taught me so much about how to go about the food storage issue. Thank you. I think you must help yourself in one area: the grown children who do not live with you cannot be a high priority on your list of things to worry about. Arrange some kind of meeting with them to discuss 1)your need to make these preparations, 2)your understanding that they will make the decisions on how to prepare their families for the pandemic, whatever those decisions may be, 3)how you will handle urgent requests for assistance from any or all of them when the pandemic begins. Have them prepare their lists of necessities for each of their family members, and you prepare a list of food/other care items that you will require to supplement your stored provisions if they want to join you for the duration. Pre-planning will be key for a joint venture like this to work. They may choose to ride everything out on their own, but I will be surprised to find that the panic around them, egged on by the media, doesn’t convince them they want their Mom. Good luck to you. Please continue to share your goals, achievements with us….it’s very helpful to those of us who have never had to prepare for such a nightmarish scenario.

Children’s Tylenol

Tcfromva. Thanks for the tip on Tylenol suppositories. I had never heard of them, but they sound like a necessary ingredient of the flu toolkit. Another intermediate approach that some may not have tought of is the use of Children’s Tylenol in liquid form for very ill adults. About 20 years ago my wife had a particularly nasty flu. She was feverish, not particularly responsive, and I called our Doctor’s office to see whether they thought I needed to have her transported to hospital. The nurse there suggested first trying to give her sips of Children’s Tylenol liquid, as she was in no shape to actually swallow pills. I did as she suggested, and within an hour or two, she was at least aware and vaguely human.

Swann - Thanks for the encouragement. I still have more to post, but my day job keeps getting in the way of the important stuff. I truly understand the difficulty that some may have in stockpiling materials. But even there, just sitting down and planning what you will do with what you have is a vast improvement over what the rest of the general public will be doing.

I have seen the stripping of stores up here every time a severe winter storm is forecast to approach. Always the same pattern. A near riot at the gas pumps of the local convenience store as people strive not only to fill up their cars, but also filling gas cans for snow blowers, generators and kerosene for heaters. At the supermarket, the shelves are stripped of bread, eggs and milk. (This means, of course, that the best survival food for a blizzrd must be French Toast, based on the ingredients they are running for). This is for a situation that people are very familiar with and the fear of the unknown is not driving them. My wife and I, ages ago, figured out that if we keep our cars filled at 3/4 or above during winter, and run some extra food stock, we need not join the fray. It has always amazed me that we seem to be the only 2 people in the state who have figured that one out.

Trying to approach this from a flexible response approach (wait until things progressively get worse before provisioning for the next level) could invite wild shopping sprees and empty shelves. While I’m not sure that’s the intent above, we’ve chosen to approach this from a Level 3 perspective right off the bat, without causing undue financial burden;

Planning

This website is a general disaster planning website, which one can tailor to the flu pandemic; http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/9/9/161748/9747 “Preparing to deal with a disaster is like going off of a ski jump. If you put off your planning until things start happening, it’s far too late to make much of a difference. Once you’re headed down that ski jump, the time for planning and preparation is over.”

So make a plan and determine where you want to ride out the pandemic, with whom, and how and when you will acquire and store provisions. If you are in a city or even the suburbs, consider a rural retreat, as mentioned in Dr. Grattan Woodson’s paper; http://www.fluwikie.com/annex/woodsonmonograph.htm If you plan to shift to a rural retreat, consider the need to preposition supplies, and have a handy suitcase set packed with everything you need, including supplies that will last you a minimum of three days, in case you run into trouble (i.e., congestion, no gas, civil disorder, alternate routing) on the road.

Don’t plan on your own, think on a wider scale. Get your neighbors involved; when the pandemic hits, you don’t want desperate people right in the neighborhood. Read http://fluwikie.com/index.php?n=Consequences.CommunityPreparedness

Continuing to think on wider scale, strongly encourage your town/city/county to plan, prepare, and take actions at appropriate times to mitigate risks to infection, food/water disruption, and civil disorder. Again, see http://www.fluwikie.com/index.php?n=Consequences.CommunityPreparedness

Food

We’ve decided to buy bulk foods that we will eat anyway on a rotational basis; buying in bulk is actually less expensive by far over the long run (i.e. 3 bushels of wheat from a local farmer for $24, 3 bushels of soybeans for $21). The best way we found to plan to to identify the nutritional requirements for each family member per month, and then set a target for how many months of food we would store. To avoid the confusion of “How much do we really have now?”, and “What should I be trying to acquire in what quantities?”, we found the Ultimate Food Storage Spreadsheet to be a big help, though walk through the instructions first; http://www.eng.utah.edu/~bartholo/FoodStorage/

Everytime we take something out of storage, we mark it of the inventory printout, so that we know exactly how long our food will last, and what we need to shop for on the next grocery run (or online bulk order).

Food for stockpiling should be dry-store, as electricity cannot be counted on to remain operational throughout the duration of a multiplewave, 12–18 month pandemic (if it is that long). One good information source is;

 http://www.survival-center.com/foodfaq/ff1-toc.htm#contents

MRE-like food (i.e., Army rations) is available, though expensive. Bulk foods are much cheaper in quantity, and can be stored to last for years. Some percentage of ready to eat meals will come in handy, though.

There are many places to acquire bulk foods (google for [“bulk foods” grains beans]), so access now is not too bad, though we have one supplier who is getting bogged down. Spread your orders over more than one supplier to avoid your eggs in one basket.

Set aside an area to store the food; shelving is very important, and it helps to keep the food as cool as possible.

If one thinks in terms of 3 or more months, then consider using methods that will keep the food preserved for at least 1 year. We stored food in High Density Poly Ethylene (HDPE) buckets from Home Depot, sealing the food in mylar bags with oxygen absorbers, which reduce spoilage and prevent insect infestation. Storage life in such containers for many grains/legumes approaches 8 years, so one doesn’t have to constantly rotate these stocks; http://www.usaemergencysupply.com/equipment/storage.htm (check other suppliers as this one is getting bogged down)

Tips on sealing food in mylar bags; http://www.survivalunlimited.com/foodstorage/mylarsealing.htm

Don’t forget you need to cook! If your oven/range/microwave is not operational due to outages, there are other means; http://solarcooking.org/plans.htm Also consider regular or backpacking campstoves, remembering to buy enough fuel canisters.

Get a cookbook geared to stored bulk foods, and make sure to stock up on lots of herbs, seasonings, etc. http://waltonfeed.com/bookindex.html

Avoid the seven major mistakes people make in food storage; http://www.waltonfeed.com/self/seven.html

- to be continued on the subject of Water -

Thanks, skye. Great links. Keep going.

Skye - There seems to be some misunderstanding. I never meant that you should wait for level 1 before provisioning for level 2, etc. But rather, you should begin by provisioning from bottom up as you go, to prepare for coming events. This is intended as a means of first, figuring out just what and how much you should stock, and second, provisioning it in a way that won’t waste time, money or effort to get the basic supplies that you need in.

Also, the danger of reading too many survivalistic sites for planning guidance is they tend to assume that you never know when the Martians will land in the middle of town, so have a complete jump kit on your person at all times. In the event of a Pandemic, I anticipate at least days or perhaps weeks to achieve final position and button up. The supplies will be gone from the stores very quickly, but my window for safe retreat will last somewhat longer.

Water

USDA Assistant Secretary for Food Safety, Richard Raymond;

individual citizens must also take steps to prepare for a pandemic with water, with food that doesn’t necessarily need refrigeration for any naturally occurring disaster such as a blizzard, a hurricane, a tornado or even avian influenza that may upset the infrastructure, and warns, “Perhaps the grocery stores won’t be open. Perhaps someone won’t be able to run the water treatment plant. So, Americans should have enough in their homes to sustain themselves for at least a week.” http://www.voanews.com/english/AmericanLife/2005-11-04-voa51.cfm

One can store many containers, but just one week’s supply for a family of four is 28 gallons. http://extension.usu.edu/publica/foodpubs/watersto.htm

Rainwater capture is an approach that many are taking (unless you can dig a well, and provide a means to extract water without electricity). Some people are putting their rainbarrels within an enclosure that they are also using for trashcans, so that they are not in obvious sight. Rainbarrels can be joined together to multiply water storage. http://waltonfeed.com/self/ws.html http://www.cleanairgardening.com/80gararaba.html http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B0007VSMES/102-0142392-5636967?v=glance&n=284507 http://www.usaemergencysupply.com/equipment/waterbarrels.htm

The collection of water must be supplemented by actions to keep the water clean and drinkable; http://www.pep-c.org/waterpurification/ http://www.node707.com/archives/004961.shtml

We will have at least four 5 gallon water jugs that we will have on hand on a rotating basis (pull water from rain barrel and start the disinfection process in 2 of the jugs, while the 2 jugs previously filled are being depleted).

We also have a well, and backup power, but I’ll address power later.

To supplement my previous post, start a garden, or if you have one, consider expanding it. Plan for year around gardening, so that you can have frest vegetables during any season. Learn how to can or dehydrate your summer harvest; http://tinyurl.com/cva8s

Power

Because power may not be available frequently, it would be helpful to have some solar-rechargeable radios, flashlights, etc, Include a solar powered battery charger and rechargeable batteries for many other items, such as LED lanterns. http://www.bereadyinc.com/s.nl/sc.2/category.49/it.A/id.16/.f

Assume that you will not be able to run your refrigerator on a regular basis due to power outages. If you must have power for keeping medicine cool or for some other necessity (and TV/Gameboy/Hairdryer/etc are not necessities), then consider one of two main approaches;

• Solar power generation: Acquire and have an electrician install a modest solar power system. Cabin power systems are about the right size, but make sure to get one with a grid-tie/standby capable inverter. That way, when the power goes off, it will switch over automatically; all other times, it can spin your meter backwards in those states where netmetering is allowed. http://www.eere.energy.gov/greenpower/markets/netmetering.shtml . Be stingy about what power you really need, because that determines how many panels and batteries you need, and the size/cost of the inverter. http://www.homepower.com/files/loadcalc.pdf http://www.homepower.com/files/loadcalc.xls Work with an electrician on overall feasibility and cost before you buy.
• Backup generator: Do the same load calculations as above, then select a generator with proven reliability that you will used sparingly (e.g., for refrigerated medicines, turn on generator every 4 hours for 1/2 hour). Store plenty of fuel with fuel stabilizers.

Heat

In some parts of the world, flu waves may strike in winter. If power goes out, then there are some options to staying warm;

• Camping stoves: Make sure you buy plenty of fuel canisters
• Woodstoves: For suburban/rural homeowners, this may prove to be a better option
• Passive Solar Windowbox: If you have southfacing windows, you can supplement your heat with solar collectors that connect into your window sash; you can also use it as a solar food dryer for your garden harvest http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic11754.html+window+heater

the danger of reading too many survivalistic sites for planning guidance is they tend to assume that you never know when the Martians will land in the middle of town, so have a complete jump kit on your person at all times. In the event of a Pandemic, I anticipate at least days or perhaps weeks to achieve final position and button up.

The use of the term “Martians” is demeaning to those who dedicate their lives to disaster preparedness. The Red Cross encourages people to have supplies ready to go at a moment’s notice, whether from work OR home. Just because you might have a few days to scramble around assembling your disaster package for the flu doesn’t mean that will be the case for a hurricane, flood, earthquake, volcano, terrorist attack, etc.

Indeed, the Red Cross sells such supplies, to keep people from being confused and discouraged when the time comes to rush out the door. They also have a detailed planning process has daily goals; http://www.redcross-pdx.org/Prepare%20Oregon/daily_preparedness_tips.shtml One Person Deluxe Fanny Pack Kit Under the Table - Workstation Safety Kit

So don’t denigrate those who are trying to help. And while a stepwise approach to acquiring supplies can be helpful, don’t expect piecemeal approaches to be very effective; one needs to plan with a view of a Level 3, and make a plan to acquire supplies in bulk to reduce confusion over how many individuals cans of what are spread throughout different storage areas.

And if you are concerned about appearing like a survivalist, then remember that appearances will matter very little when you can’t bathe, much less feed your family.

Don’t forget about the wealth of information that’s available on this site;

http://www.fluwikie.com/index.php?n=Consequences.PandemicPreparednessGuides

Skye - For some reason, you keep reading inintended interpretations into my statements, so I’ll try to clarify for you.

First ‘I do not espouse running around at the last minute to assemble your supplies’

As I have tried to communicate to you, I am trying to promote structured and orderly planning so people can assemble their supplies efficiently. I am not espousing piecemeal solutions, but rather planning for the particular conditions you anticipate facing, and then provisioning for them, without extraneous purchases or baggage cluttering up your efforts.

My use of the term “Martians” is intended to reflect the unreasoned fear of unknown, unnamed and unknowable threats that some survival junkies seem to reflect. In this case, in this thread, I am only interested in calmly and effectively planning for exposure to Pandemic flu. I am not interested in teaching how to build a “bail out” kit for any and all eventualities. I am interested in helping families to plan what they need to do to provision themselves against a PAndemic which may or may not be coming.

I do not demean those dedicated to disaster preparedness. In my life I have been a member of Civil Defense, an emergency radio network control officer in a CD affiliated AREC/RACES unit. I have been a Civil Air Patrol search and rescue flight crew member with Mission Certification. The crew I belonged to all worked at the same place, and we could go from alert to wheels up in about 40 minutes. So please calm down, and rather read what I am saying instead of what you are imagining I am saying.

Please show me where in any of my postings, in any of the threads of this Wiki I have suggested scrambling around at the last minute to pull together supplies.

I am not in the least, as you suggest, concerned with appearing like a survivalist. I am, however rather down on the idea of ACTING like a survivalist. One need only understand the contingencies one will face, determine the supplies required, lay them in, and then get on with one’s life.

A stepwise approach to acquiring and storing provisions is the most efficient approach unless you are in a crash-dive situation. We are not at that point now.

We are both on the same side. I don’t understand the vitriol you seem to be bringing to the table.

….”A rugged, three zipper fanny pack that contains a 72 hour supply of food and water, thermal blanket, duct tape, hand warmers, radio with batteries, first aid reference guide and kit, dust masks, leather-palm gloves, poncho, light sticks, playing cards, flashlight with batteries, whistle and hygiene pack”….

From Red Cross survival kit for sale. What “playing cards” have to do in that kit? I don’t think you have idea to play cards in disaster period! Did peoples played cards in New Orlean?

Is there somewhere I can buy food, I mean food expressly for desaster period? Like food in metallic wrapping, cooked, who just have to be warm?

Eccles

I want to again tell you how invaluable your site is to myself and others prepping for this thing. This is especially true of anyone just starting out.

My husband has been watching the progress of the bird flu for several years and I vaguely remember him mentioning it off and on. But for the most part I didn’t pay much attention. Then in late Sept. I caught Leavitt on CNN and he mentioned how he doesn’t sleep well at night with this hanging over our heads. Well that got my attention. Then I caught the Undersecretary of Health and Human Resouces saying that after the crisis in the health care system her next immediate concern would be how to feed the American people. That really made me sit up and listen. With Katrina so fresh in my mind, no way was I interested in waiting around for the gov. to come up with a plan to provide food and water in an emergency.

All that to say this. I was then totally overwhelmed with the idea of how to prep for such a huge and long event. But I sat down with my husband and did just as you explain here. We have prepped up to what you call level three and are working to get that finished. Taken in chunks it’s manageable both monetarily and psychologically.

The important thing is to take action, but to continue to live a normal life. We are spending very little on things we wouldn’t use anyway. The kids have asked about the extra supplies and why all the new shelving. We have told them that after watching the Katrina disaster we want to have a few extra things on hand and not get caught in a bind. They accepted that and moved on. We never ever discuss our thoughts and fears infront of them. I want them to have a normal happy childhood free of worries that are beyond their control.

When my kids were first born my husband and I were in our 30′s. When the reality of living with their demanding feeding schedules, how much harder it was to go places, especially packing for trips hit us I can remember telling my wise and wonderful mother that we were going to just wait it out until the kids were a little older to do all the things we wanted to do. But she told me something that changed my mind. She said this is your life right now. Live it. Don’t wait to live it when you think things will be easier. Just pack them up and go. There will always be something looming or happening that will make you think you should wait to “live” until things are better or change. But that time you use waiting is actually your life you are living.

So prep, watch the news, but also live.

tcfromva brought up a good point about bringing down a high temp. Bringing a high temp. down too quickly, and allowing temp to keep going up and down, rather than keeping on meds to keep it down can cause seizures, especially in children. I learned this last year from our pediatrician after our infant was sick with a very high fever.

> Skye - For some reason, you keep reading inintended interpretations into my statements, so I’ll try to clarify for you.

> First ‘I do not espouse running around at the last minute to assemble your supplies’

And I did not use those terms myself. Don’t keep reading unintended interpretations into my statements.

> As I have tried to communicate to you, I am trying to promote structured and orderly planning so people can assemble their supplies efficiently. I am not espousing piecemeal solutions, but rather planning for the particular conditions you anticipate facing, and then provisioning for them

Buying a little at a time can be helpful, but seeing the big picture first is my point. If one buys to satisfy Level 0, then later Level 1, then later Level 2, etc, then that is a piecemeal approach, IMO. That may not be what you espouse, but it was hard to tell.

> without extraneous purchases or baggage cluttering up your efforts.

I don’t think anyone is suggesting that one purchase excessive supplies. Almost all of the items we have purchased will be used regardless, and will in fact save us money.

>I am not in the least, as you suggest, concerned with appearing like a survivalist. I am, however rather down on the idea of ACTING like a survivalist.

When an emergency strikes, they are one and the same, unless you continue to use the term in a pejorative fashion.

> One need only understand the contingencies one will face, determine the supplies required, lay them in, and then get on with one’s life.

Which is why I agree with the Red Cross and FEMA on the need for an Emergency Kit for those who will choose to travel to another site to ride out a pandemic. You may choose to disagree, but I have no problem with that.

> My use of the term “Martians” is intended to reflect the unreasoned fear of unknown, unnamed and unknowable threats that some survival junkies seem to reflect.

It’s use in this thread was (and is) pejorative in nature. Speak to the Red Cross and FEMA about what their recommendations “seem to reflect”. And the primary focus of this site is the potential for a influenza pandemic, so “unknown, unnamed” have no place here. The “unknowable” is when, what mortality rate, how many waves, and how long.

> I don’t understand the vitriol you seem to be bringing to the table.

Look no further than your assumption of ‘unreasoned fear’ and ‘Martians’ for what you term vitriol.

> We are both on the same side.

So stop denigrating the input of others.

> In this case, in this thread, I am only interested in calmly and effectively planning for exposure to Pandemic flu.

Show me where my planning suggestions are not calm and effective. Oh, I forgot, I’m thinking the Martians are coming…

>I am not interested in teaching how to build a “bail out” kit for any and all eventualities. I am interested in helping families to plan what they need to do to provision themselves against a PAndemic which may or may not be coming.

Then you are assuming they are staying put at their home. Or else you simply decided to leave that planning step out. As long as people understand those assumptions, there is no issue.

> A stepwise approach to acquiring and storing provisions is the most efficient approach unless you are in a crash-dive situation. We are not at that point now.

The “Stepwise approach” is fine, though again, can end up being piecemeal IMO if one doesn’t plan for the big picture first. There’s a huge difference between the supplies and approach one needs for Levels 0, 1, or 2, and and those needed for Levels 3, 4, or 5. My food storage would work for Levels 2 and above, without any transition confusion. Just my opinion, though.

Skye -

My final reply to you will be in the form of a quote lifted from the Thread “Financial Survival Plan”. In the final analysis, in my world, the folks on this planning thread and survivalists are not one and the same. This is what someone who calls himself a survivalist says….

…In a worst-case scenario nothing will matter except pure survival. Its us or them at that point, no landlord is evicting anyone when 60% of the population is dead on the street, “sure come get the rent I am just not feeling real well”. “People” will not be willing to put up with crap from anyone its going to be mad max at that point. Bills will be the last thing everyone will worry about its going to be food, water, heat, fuel, security, and keeping what you have away from the people that don’t have it. Sorry it may seem cold but I have a survivalist mentality and its not like there has not been warning….

Eccles, I appreciate your efforts, please keep up the thread.

Planning for emergencies is prudent, and I am looking at those emergencies that realistically might face my family (tornadoes, floods, snow storms, etc.), but I’m not ready to put a bomb shelter in my back yard or prepare to live like Rambo. I know exactly what you are talking about with some of the “survivalist” sites. I saw one where several families got together to build “fallout shelters” in small spaces or ditches and put boards across chairs for beds. That’s not what I come to this forum for.

Obviously, everyone has their own comfort level for emergency planning, and some may tilt more in the direction of “survivalist” planning. I respect both views, but this is a “flu wiki” and pandemic influenza preparation should be the focus.

With regard to that preparation, it involves both individual preparation (which this thread is devoted to) and community preparation (which we need to maintain our society). I plan to work with and help my neighbors, not maintain an us-against-them mentality.

Eccles,

In my final reply to you, I’m only going to say that if you associate everyone planning to make it through Level 3 or above as a survivalist in the worse sense of the term (i.e., the context of your quote above), then you are the one with the ‘us versus them’ attitude. My input included working closely with neighbors, community, and local government in a joint effort. How you distorted that to become associated to the quote above is beyond me.

LL,

> What “playing cards” have to do in that kit? I don’t think you have idea to play cards in disaster period! Did peoples played cards in New Orlean?

Games help to take people’s mind off of constant fretting about the situation they are in. Plus, it’s a quick and easy boredom relief tool.

> Is there somewhere I can buy food, I mean food expressly for desaster period? Like food in metallic wrapping, cooked, who just have to be warm?

There are many such sites, as long as you don’t mind looking at places associated with ‘survivalists’.

http://www.usaemergencysupply.com/food/mre.htm http://www.theepicenter.com/mre_military_meal_ready_to_eat.html http://campingsurvival.com/mreskits.html and simply google “MRES” and “price” for more. I’ve only used the first supplier, and they are starting to get bogged down with orders.

The Eccles approach of stepwise planning and preparation is probably what will work well for most people. Not that there is anything wrong with the skye approach of amassing everything one needs to be at level three right away; it’s just that most people can’t afford to do that. So we can start at the bottom and work up. (Many people can’t even afford that.) Take it one step at a time.

In any event, I really appreciate everything that Eccles and skye are doing to contribute here. Different approaches and different values, perhaps. But both are very very helpful.

Hello Skye: Thanks for the links….I love it when I don’t have to reinvent wheels, especially when I know there are some out there, turning and burning.

LL: Just imagine the Superdome filled with thousands of heart-sick adults, surrounded by thousands of screaming children. Anything that entertains and quietens is a blessing.

Ya… o.k…. playing cards can be something who help peoples change their mind, I am agree (depends on which kind of disaster).

Sites about emergency foods are really interesting Skye…tk’s, but I will have to do search to find something in Canada.

Level 3 Planning - Description of Conditions and Basic Planning Criteria

OK folks, this is where we need to fasten our seatbelts, place our tray tables in their full upright and locked positions and hold on tight. The ride gets very bumpy from this point forward.

The reason for the above disclaimer is simply that Level 3 encompasses a pandemic situation with an extent similar to that of the 1918 pandemic. At this point, individual imaginations and individual circumstances must prevail when planning for these conditions. We have only seen anything like this once before, nearly a century ago. Back then the nature of the pandemic and its results differed even between cities and towns within the US. Times have changed, medicine has changed and most important, H5N1 circa 2006 is not H1N1 circa 1918. Even so, we can begin to determine both our expectations and the unknowns.

We can expect that we will see fatality rates of approximately 1–2% of the population. We do not know for sure, but if cytokine storm is the primary kill mechanism, then the young will be a disproportionate share of the fatalities. The bacterial pneumonia kill mechanism may be somewhat blunted this time around due to the availability of Pneumovax, sparing some of the older population who might otherwsie have made it through the viral episode but succumbed to the bacterial secondary.

We do not know, but can assume that the flu wave will rise quickly in any given locale, peak and then subside in some period of weeks to perhaps a couple of months. We do not know, but can assume that there will be more than one wave of infections. We do not know whether illness during the first wave will confer immunity during the second or subsequent waves. We do not know whether it is better to get it in the first wave and have done wih it, or shelter in an attempt to avoid any contact with the virus. We do not know whether isolation will in fact shield us from exposure to the virus. We do not know how much advanced warning we will have that the virus is running, and how much time we will have to implement isolation or contingency plans.

And most important - we do not know that things will ever reach up to a Level 3

If we assume for planning purposes that things will be on the bad side, then you must take some time to pursue what the pessimistic implications of Level 3 actually are. My personal assumptions for planning at Level 3 are:

1) Traditional medical care outlets will quickly be swamped, overloaded and become unavailable. This includes both your Doctor’s office and the hospital. Given the lack of surge capacity in the US medical system, one should not count on any medical care being there when needed. This may be overly pessimistic, but that is the planning point I am using. I suspect the local pharmacies will be equally impacted by such an onslaught.

2) Supermarkets may experience a great deal of panic buying as word of impending flu spreads. Before the actual onset of flu in the US, resupply will be able to backfill some of the holes. Once the Pandemic strikes at any major locales, the Interstate system may well have blockages in areas, and there may be attempts either by National or State or Local governments to embargo movement of trucks or trains through their areas. Shortages of commodities will become more the rule than the exception.

3) Businesses will encounter rising absenteeism rates due to illness, death or fear of the above. It will be hard to buy things or to get things done.

4) Utilities should be considered undependable. It is not clear whether utilities are currently planning for such a situation, and as such they may run out of skilled staff to keep things running. Further, once things go down, they may be off for a long time.

5) Going out in public will involve a very real risk of exposure and infection. One should assume that public gathering places will be closed (restaurants, churches, schools, etc.) venturing out from ones place of safety should only attempted with appropriate protective clothing, and full hygiene afterwards, and then only for the most serious of needs.

6) Public safety agencies (i.e. police and fire) will be hard pressed to keep “boots on the ground”. Assistance may or may not be available if you call, assuming that cell or landline phone systems are working at that time.

7) Banks and other financial institutions will probably be closed for normal transactions. Money may be hard to come by, even if you have accounts with cash in them.

8) For those who live away from cities, you may well have family or acquaintances who have fled the conditions within the cities show up on your doorstep seeking shelter. You will need to decide in advance what you will do when this occurs.

9) The depths of these conditions will be short lived. As seen in 1918, after the wave passes, there will be a period, perhaps extended during which illness rates drop precipitously. There will be a return to some degree of normalcy for some period of time. Services and utilities will get back online. Some commodities will again be available for purchase.

As in the previous planning levels, your goal is to insure that you have whatever supplies can be anticipated to be needed by your family for the duration of this situation. As before, we will start with the assumption that you are building upon a base of a full complement of supplies for the previous level. Your individual planning will depend to a great degree on your own circumstances and values. Do you intend to go into isolation while the rest of the world faces the influenza. Will you emerge between waves for resupply? Will you remain out in your community? Will you volunteer to help others? All of these will create different planning situations. How you proceed is strictly up to you.

In my next posting, I will attempt to explore the kind of supply situation and social conditions you will need to plan for under these conditions. Again, many of the details are unknowable except for the actual planner. There is too much unknown about what the pandemic will be like and too much which individuates you from anyone else to offer a “one plan fits all” approach.

http://www.survivalpro.com/catalog/

For those living in Canada I found a link where to buy food, etc… Tk’s again Skye for those links about food, etc…but it will be easier, faster for me to order from here.

…”We do not know, but can assume that the flu wave will rise quickly in any given locale, peak and then subside in some period of weeks to perhaps a couple of months. We do not know, but can assume that there will be more than one wave of infections”…

In a book I read, they wrote first wave begin in March but was nothing to compare the second wave in October (6 months later, October was the worst one. But we cannot assume of course if we have a pandemic, the pattern will be the same).

>Is there somewhere I can buy food, I mean food expressly for desaster period? Like food in metallic wrapping, cooked, who just have to be warm?

Almost a textbook defination of MREs, the Meals Ready to Eat rations the Army gives its troops these days. If you get ones with the little chemical heating unit inside, they’ll even warm themselves up when you want to eat them. And they are available, commerically. But. They’re rather an expensive way to go, per meal. The low fiber, highly processed food inside gives some people gastric upset and/or constipation (hence one of their nicknames: Meals Refusing to Exit). And while they’re certainly edible, nutritious, and a solid source of calories (as well as almost indestructible until opened and eaten), the taste sometimes leaves lots to be desired. Especially in the earlier ones, which were also nicknamed Meals Refused by Ethiopians, Starving…

You can make your own MREs. Beef jerky, hardtack, power bars, dehydrated fruit chips, granola, hard candy, cereals (especially grapenuts): Put in a plastic bag (and maybe vacumn sealed), anything that won’t spoil easily can be used to cheaply make up emergency rations that can be eaten without having to use water to prepare. They may not be hot meals, but you can make them as many and as varied as you have materials for.

Camping stores will have freeze dried and dehyrated meals in bags, too, that can be stored for long periods and used when needed…

FW,

http://www.tastybite.com/ This company sells packaged foods that are cost effective and very good. This is a mail order operation. More information here.

Thanks Melanie, I’m new here and this looks like great info.

This link is to a supplier of superior non-electric products for just about everything, located in Amish country. I have ordered from them and everything is top shelf. Especially the 400 Watt Petromax lamps used for house lighting which run on kerosene and are nearly indestructable. I’ve used them off and on over a year without replacing the mantles. LP refrigerators and freezers, ect. Everything one needs to live well without electricity.

http://www.lehmans.com/

Hi guys- Words are not the thing! When I say “tree” and you hear “tree”- we will both be imagining completely different trees- I could be imagining a redwood tree, you could be imagining an apple tree. No point in arguing over what words mean to each of us- every word rings different bells for all of us.

I want to tell you about “Hobo stoves” from my childhood- also called “vagabond stoves” journeytoforever.org/edu_hobostove.html I make mine out of #10 fruit cans. They will boil water faster than a gas stove and use handfulls of tree bark, wood chips or anysort pf burnable stuff- bits of cardboard are fine. I make mine for free. You are not dependant on anything- and they are incredibly efficient. This link is not the only design-

http://sjc.utah.gov/publicsafety/em-vagabondstove.asp Is the sort of stove I use.

A real handy fuel for the stove is made by taking ordinary corrugated box cardboard and cutting it into 2″x2″ squares (size is only approximate, no need to use a ruler!) and then soak the pieces in melted candle wax. As Clarky says this kind of stove can provide amazing amounts of heat. My wife and I both carried one in our emergency kits for winter when we left way out in the Great Plains.

Another possible stove is a soda-can alcohol stove. That one burns liquid alcohol as fuel (Gasline dryer in the yellow bottle is almost pure methanol, the ideal fuel). I’ll have to post a link later. But just as the Vagabond stove, this one can be made with some old soda cans.

One word of warning - these things are not very safe for indoor use due to fire hazard, smoke hazard and carbon monoxide hazard. Be careful using any flame producing device

There. having said that, this is a good illustration that preparations need not involve large expenditures of cash, as long as you have planned on what you will need, how you satisfy that need and then provision against that need.

OK.

Here is a link to a site which provides details on how to construct an alcohol stove from some old beer cans and a penny. As always, use your own best judgement. I haven’t personally built or used one of these cheap little wonders, so you need to make your own judgements.

http://www.csun.edu/~mjurey/penny.html

Reasonable Preparations for Level 3

Just looking at the title of this section, I am not sure that it isn’t an oxymoron. It is at Level 3 where the expectation is that things are going to become decidedly unreasonable. As I pointed out in my section on anticipated conditions, this is the level where ones imagination may provide as good a guide as anything else for preparation. At this point, I have to step aside and let you take complete control of your planning, because only you know what you will need, and what conditions you think you will be facing. But let’s begin.

Since we are assuming that at Level 3, we encounter conditions which are equivalent to the pandemic of 1918, we are assuming a fatality rate of between 1 and 2% for our planning. From this number alone, we are assuming that it is dangerous to be out and around a whole lot, that normal services and commerce will be disrupted to a lesser or greater extent, and that there may be little to no reasonable expectation of medical, public safety or support services. Thus, we need to approach the provisioning with an eye toward being totally dependent upon our own resources for some period of time.

The first question you will need to sort out is whether you are intending on taking the path of total isolation. From the postings of many of the people on this Wiki, I feel that for most of you, the answer will be in fact, planning on total isolation. That being the case, the very next question you will need to answer is the period of time you expect to have to isolate yourself and your family. this is important not only from the standpoint of how much stuff you will need to acquire and store, but what kinds of stuff you will need, and the relative quantities. In areas such as mine, where winter weather is a big factor in comfort or even survival, you will also need to establish, up front, what the timing of the Pandemic might be, relative to the calendar.

As an example, suppose my own family’s Level 3 plan assumes sheltering during two waves of influenza with a total duration of 5 months. Whether we thought that 5 month period began in May or October would dictate very different stockpiles. In winter, a substantial stock of heating fuel would be required. In summer, none. In winter, food storage may be assisted by cold outdoor temperatures, so preparation of a few days worth of meals at once could be accomplished to save cooking fuel. in summer, that would not be possible. In winter, we could derive water from snow if need be. In summer not. In summer, we could gather edible weeds and berries from our property as a food adjunct. In winter, not at all.

I can’t tell you what your plan will look like, I can only teach you what to consider. In my own case, given the way things look now, I am planning to deal with a pandemic which starts with a wave in late winter, runs for a couple of months, eases, and then has a second wave in the fall. Your own plans will differ.

The next question you will have to sort out for yourself is what will be happening around your region during such an event. A city dweller can expect that conditions will be different from what us rural folks experience. Other threads have discussed the possibility of violent behavior. I am not planning on a great deal of that going on around here. Some, but not a great deal. What will the local and federal government be doing. Will populations be forceably shifted. Forceably isolated? Will equipment or supplies be commandeered?

I can’t answer any of the above questions. All I can do is give you the guidance to sit down and write down an outline of what you expect will be going on. Will there be fuel deliveries to your town. Could you buy gasoline if you wore gloves and mask? Would you want to? What about trash pickups. Do you want to put trash out by the road that provides clues that you still have fresh supplies?

Having gone through the lecture, now lets look at the provisioning aspects.

Food: You will need to plan out just how many meals you will need to be able to provide for the period you are planning for. Thus if you are assuming 3 months of isolation for 4 people, that means having to provide about 1000 meals. Have you considered what you can store that will do that? I suppose 1000 Power Bars is one approach, but a combination of canned and dry goods is what I would be looking at. For instance, how many meals can one get from a 25 pound sack of rice. Dried beans are another of the key commodities. Canned meats, Canned juices. How will you cook your food. How much fuel will you need per meal. this is the time to consider how you will achieve your goal. Is there a possibility of safely going out for resupply some time during the period?

How about in the Spring. Can you grow some of your own food? Have you ever tried to do it before now? Do you even have a few garden tools on hand? If birds and mammals can carry the virus, is it safe to do this?

Water: What is your water supply. How will you provide a safe supply of drinking and washing water during the planning period. Again, with 4 people going for 3 months of isolation, you will require a minimum of 360 gallons of water as a bare minimum. Do you plan on storing all of that at once? How will you insure its security against leaks, contamination or theft? If you are counting on a municipal supply, how much backup supply will you have on hand against possible interrruptions?

Medicine: This is easy. You will need a full supply of all maintenance medicines for all family members for the entire period. Or longer if you think things will not be back to full normal operation when you emerge. Or are you planning on having your local pharmacy be available during the period. How will you dress and what protective clothing/equipment will you use when visiting the pharmacy? Besides maintenance medicines, you will already have a stock of medicines needed to deal with influenza in your home. But what other medicines might you need if your Doctor and pharmacy were not available for a while. Now would be a good time to have this discussion with you family doctor and see whether he would be comfortable in prescribing some medicines against anticipatable illnesses. Even if he gives phone direction for actual use, you will at least have the supplies. Even if he can recommend OTC things to have on hand.

Clothing: Do you have enough clothing to deal with an interruption in supply of new clothing. Do you have sufficient to deal with a reduction of washing capabilities? How much do you have now, and how much will you need to stock. Is it capable of seasonal weather changes?

Energy Supplies: How do you intend to deal with basic heating, cooking and lighting requirements. Once you are self sufficient for the long term, you can no longer count on consumable supplies such as gasoline, kerosene, propane and batteries for your entire energy supply. In my own case, our house has alot of South facing windows, is well insulated, and even in mid-winter, can generate sufficient heat from solar energy to stay warm during daylight hours. Have you looked into such simple techniques as opening and closing blinds for heat control. Are your lighting devices capable of being run on rechargeable batteries. Have you considered getting solar battery chargers, solar cookers and solar water sterilizers? Does your house have a fireplace? Can it actually operate as your sole source of heat? Have you tried that? Where is your long-term source of fuel for it? How much fuel will you actually need. Do you have it or can you get it? What is your cooking method. How much fuel per meal does it consume? Is it even safe to store as much fuel as you will need?

Fire Fighting: If you are going to be using candles, kerosene or propane heaters or fireplaces, have you considered you may need to have fire extinguishers around to deal with the problems that could arise from their use?

Communication: How will you stay in touch with the rest of the world. What if cell systems are down but landline systems are still working. What if the only communication is the local (or distant) radio station. Or just the TV station. Do you have battery or crank operated radios or TV’s? How about walkie-talkies if you have family members out and about your property.

Addictive Habits: What stuff can you possitively not do without. Cigarettes? Coffee? Alcohol? Cookies? Consider now how much you will need to prevent having to go cold turkey in the middle of otherwise trying circumstances.

Money: You will need to consider how much cash to keep around. Katrina taught us that in a disaster, a povket full of money can make all the difference in personal comfort and safety. Assume that price gouging and profiteering will be the norm.

Cash: Did I say you’d need cash on had? You will

Self Defense: What are the civil order or disorder conditions you will encounter. How will you deal with what is going on? (And don’t just think Gun.)

OK. There is a great deal to consider and incorporate into your plan before you just run around willy-nilly and buy a bunch of stuff. As in the previous planning levels, the goal is to understand just what your needs for supplies will be, and then stock up your provisions to meet those needs. By definition, you will already have a good start on both the planning process and the provisioning process from the lower levels. You just need to move forward to the concept of longer duration and sparser conditions. If you are seriously considering that conditions will reach a 1918 magnitude pandemic, and that normal supply systems will be compromised, you need to take the time to consider all of your activities and what you will need to put away now so that you can continue to function during the period you anticipate.

it would be very usefull to you to actually plan out on a sheeet of paper all of the things you will need, and how much you will need. If you then discuss it with another family member, they may see either gaps or overages in your plan. Once you work it out between you, at least you will have mutual support that you are doing the right thing.

Also, this discussion has been primarily a guide to planning, not the nuts and bolts of hardware, provisions and survival techniques. Once we have finished with the basic planning discuiions, if people want me to, I can begin to discuss real-world solutions to long term issues (such as cooking on an alcohol stove using only a few ounce of alcohol per day).

In a future installment, I will try to deal with Levels 4 and 5.

That penny stove looks like a good idea. Is it regular rubbing alcohol from the drug store that you use or something else?

Excuse me, but all of this is because we fear a 1–2% of all people would die? So 1 or 2 in 100 people die in one year? Many people go through much more than that when they have serious surgical procedures done on them! (And of course 98 or 99 survive in this case. Most will have lost a number of relatives or friends. But doesn’t that happen all the time anyway?) Many people are in much worse conditions in different parts of the world.

You know, we people do die. In a 1 million people stable population, if 5 thousand are born each year, then 5 thousand die each year. That’s a 5 in 1000 or 0.5% chance of dieing. So what if it’s twice or four times as much in a given year, three times each century?

Just because we can put numbers to it doesn’t mean we can (or should) control it! Do we really aim for zero chance of getting the flu? You know, we might die of starvation, loneliness, stress induced heart-attacks. Just like caged chicken in industrial poultry farms.

There’s a cost in these preparation procedures. If we draw a decision tree, are you sure we still want to take this path? Or do we rather keep society working and wear masks when on public transport, not because they are perfect, but because they are better than doing nothing, and they help us to cope and get through, make it as a society?

Of course, a 50% attack rate plus a 50% case-fatality rate would mean 1 in 4 die and most things would crumble. But even then we may need to keep things from crumbling, as there would be no place to go back to after this really bad pandemic passes.

And, surely, a 90% attack rate plus a 90% case-fatality rate means 81% of all people die, those that are left kill each other or just go crazy, and maybe there’s a 1% of survivers: those with the right combination of lucky place (including mutual support), lucky skills and lucky inmune system.

There must be a better way to prepare than pile stuff up for myself - stuff that will be stolen in no time. I mean, practically speaking.

Yes, you are quite right. However, none of us have been able to figure out the better way; all of this can be overwhelming and Eccles is trying his very best to help us take small, progressive steps. I find that I feel better, mentally, after each small accomplishment. I know in my heart that I cannot afford to build the stockpile of things necessary to keep my family alive, in total isolation, but I can acquire some things that might keep us in some kind of comfort for awhile. Maybe it will be long enough. If you are reading this forum, you are concerned; try to build a stock of a few necessities and I think you will find some comfort in that.

Hi Eccles and all

Keep this thread up. It’s read all over the world. Eccles, perhaps a more concentrated summary for a practical “what should I do now” situation could be posted at some stage.

Keep up the good work. Eshed Jerusalem

Considering the loss of lung capacity even in people that survive, Home Oxygen Therapy could provide an important survial margin.

http://www.cchs.net/health/health-info/docs/2400/2412.asp?index=8707

Eshed - I agree that a concentrated practical is also needed. I would like to finish the planning thread first so that the folks reading this can understand what they need to do to target their efforts to achieve the best results for their own situations. Any practical topics will most likely help some people while leaving others out.

prep_esceptic -

The problem isn’t that 1–2% die in one year. It’s that 1–2% additional die in a period of days or weeks, as well as the normal 1–2% that die over the course of that year. And unlike the normal mixture of young folks due to accidents and older folks like myself due to the illnesses of age, it is substantially those in the prime of life and their children. Or possibly, just their children.

And there is no guarantee that the number will either be limited to the 1–2% level, or will ever reach that high. So we must discuss preparations to deal with whatever contingency actually shows up.

Hi all- the best metaphor for the present situation, I can think of is, the AIDS epidemic. After 20 years there is no vacine, no cure and the virus is progresively infecting more and more people. Think of the flu as a fast acting AIDS virus and treat it the same. AIDS is out there, but we are mostly not in a panic about it because we know how it is transmitted and we avoid dangerous activities and practices and teach the same to our kids. We stay out iof the AID virus’ way. It is like learning how to cross a busy street.

My intention is to understand this H5N1 bug and avoid it. I know it is dangerous and I want to stay out of its path- like not stepping in front of a fully ladden log truck. I think avoiding contact with the virus is the obvious road to take. In 1918, does anyone know how the virus was transmitted to remote communities? Will isolation work? Will the virus come blowing through our windows or drop out of the sky in bird poop?

clarky90 brings up an interesting question. Can the wind carry the virus and how far or does someone have to sneeze in our face? I’m not sure I’d be too worried about bird poop but might be concerned about the ventilation system where I work. Bout 1,000 folks there.

Much is unknown about the efficacy of non-pharmaceutical measures, as is being discussed in http://www.fluwikie.com/index.php?n=Forum.NewInfoOnMasksFromWHO with help from WHO - their “writing group” has collected the available evidence and there’s not much that’s solid.

Personally, my focus would be preparation for 1–2 weeks of staying at home while ill, and also helping many others to do the same. This is something that can potentially be done by a greater number of us, while hiding out in the forest is something only a small number of human beings will be able to do; I imagine if this hits hard then at least part of those in the woods will be found, reached and, well, disturbed.

It’s not an either-or thing.

So I’m thankful that Eccles is doing all this work, and I’ll personally stay at one of the lower stages in the “preparedness ladder”, and help spread that out. There’s more at:

• http://www.fluwikie.com/index.php?n=Consequences.CommunityPreparedness
• http://www.fluwikie.com/index.php?n=Forum.CommunityPreparedness
• http://www.fluwikie.com/index.php?n=Forum.HowCanANeighborhoodHelpEachOther
• http://www.fluwikie.com/index.php?n=Forum.NeighborhoodPreparednessBlog

In fact, I think we need a bit of focus ;)

Hi Lugon- thanks for those for the great links. There is so much here, tucked away in nooks and crannies. Everyone’s level of preparedness will be fluid. It is like driving a car- you keep your eye on the road, move with the flow of traffic and are always aware that the situation can change quickly- might have to use the brakes or the accelerator. If the situation changes one way or the other, you will probably find that your preparedness changes as well. My feeling is that quarentining worked during the middle ages and probably is the best way to go now. Keep the sick away from the well. Keep the well away from the sick. Allowing ourselves to get sick does two unhelpful things- we become another point of infection spread, usually to the people who love us the most. So not only are we risking our own lives by getting sick- but we could ultimately infect our family, friends and neighbors and so on- If we want to help, firstly, we must not get sick!!!! Also, if we get sick, we are a huge drain of time and attention on those around us.

Also, I don’t remember reading about civil unrest during the 1918 flu. Pandemics sound as if they are fairly quiet events. Thank you everyone for all the knowledge and insight into a very tricky and uncertain situation. Oh yes, and for amazing forebearance- the wiki has not ever turned into a slanging match- a very tolerant place- very much appreciated when we all come from such different places.

>clarky90 brings up an interesting question. Can the wind carry the virus and how far or does someone have to sneeze in our face? I’m not sure I’d be too worried about bird poop but might be concerned about the ventilation system where I work. Bout 1,000 folks there.

Viruses have a rough time of it outside of a living organism. Sunlight, warmth, chemicals, all these can destroy them fairly quickly. Then, too, when they’re expelled from a host it’s usually in water droplets (as from a sneeze) or feces, and those tend to settle downward fast. I think the rule of thumb is that viruses seldom travel more than three feet on their own, so if you stay that far away from a sick person you reduce your chances of catching anything.

Of course, when birds defecate while flying that changes things, as the droppings can fall for hundreds of feet and hit and splatter like bombs. Adds new meaning to the phrase “Blowing in the wind”! ^__^

But unless an infected person sneezes into a ventilation intake, or some source of infection gets into the vent system itself, building air systems shouldn’t be a major source of problems…

The killer that fell from the skies

The above is interesting (from research about 1918 pandemic - hope the link works). If true, there really is nowhere to hide - here is part of the article:

“”The lethal second wave, which started at Ford Devens in Ayer, Massachusetts, on September 12, 1918, involved almost the entire world over a very short time. Its epidemiologic behaviour was most unusual. Although person-to-person spread occurred in local areas, the disease appeared on the same day in widely separated parts of the world on the one hand, but on the other took days to weeks to spread relatively short distances.

“It was detected in Boston and Bombay on the same day, but took three weeks before it reached New York City, despite the fact that there was considerable travel between the two cities. It was present for the first time in Joliet in the State of Illinois four weeks after it was first detected in Chicago, the distance between those areas being only 38 miles.”

The lethal second wave also provided striking evidence of local patchiness from one American city to another. Death rates from respiratory disease recorded in the late months of 1918 varied dramatically between different cities.

The only reasonable inference to be drawn is that the virus was airborne with an incidence at ground level that was temporally erratic and spatially very patchy. It would be unwise to dismiss the historical evidence that leads to this conclusion as being flawed and inadmissible.

An external reservoir of the virus in the high atmosphere, amplified by the exudations of billions of high-flying migratory birds, cannot be ignored, no matter how unlikely it might sound. Winter downdrafts could bring down the amplified virus as nuclei of mist that can directly enter the respiratory tracts of susceptible humans. A heavy fallout in any location could give a semblance of high infectivity which would then be an illusion.”

As this is a thread devoted to systematic planning for possible future contingency, I am not sure just why you have placed this interesting piece here. However, let’s pursue the logical planning outcome of your posting. If the hypothesis posited by the article is true, then one of three possible plans would be applicable:

1) Stay indoors to achieve as complete isolation as possible.

2) Construct a hermetic underground shelter with complete UV treatment of breathing air before it is allowed in through the ventilation system

or

3) Sit our on the front lawn in a Chaise Lounge with a mint julep in hand and enjoy the view of the sky.

If the hypothesis is true, then remaining indoors , ala nuclear fallout, would be the only sane alternative. But this is just a hypothesis, and unproved. As such, I will not allow it to distort my personal planning in any meaningful way.

Possible

From CNN today: From the documentation of La. governor on her attempt to get help before,

 and after Katrina struck-

“…On August 30, after the failures of three levees left most of New Orleans and its surrounding parishes under water Blanco told Bush that “the situation is extremely grave.” Five days after one request from the governor for federal help, a presidential aide told Blanco in a memo that Bush never got her letter. The aide told Blanco, “We found it on the governor’s Web site, but we need ‘an original’ for our staff secretary to formally process the requests.” Sunday evening, Blanco’s aides told CNN that the governor personally handed the same letter to the president when he visited New Orleans on September 2.”

Hmm…Katrina response =pandemic flu response. Let’s each prepare a formal request for help from the US government for assistance during the pandemic and then fax, email, mail, call it in NOW. We could say that based on their track record, we’d figure we’d need a head start. Reminds me of a poster popular during the Cold War of what to do during an air raid drill, with the final step lean over and kiss your *** goodbye.

Grace -

Keeping with the premise of this thread, if in your assessment of conditions that are reasonably anticipatable to occur, then you should attempt to make whatever provison you can such that if the Feds leave you flat, you’ll still be able to keep on keeping on. Plus stockpile much much paper and pen to send out multiple copies of your request for assistance.

Bush declared the area a disaster before the storm hit. The govenor already had troops waiting. Maybe they need the original document as well.

There is a great deal of “blaming” going on here. The local and state governments there are soooo corrupt that there was no way any help could be mobilized. The same thing happened in big cities during the 1918 flu. Lining of pockets was the only working government program. The Mayor of NO left before getting the buses to p/u his less fortunate citizens. The very people that used the same buses to get to polls on election day to vote him into office. He organized on voting day, but not in front of a Cat 5. Prior to the storm, no one would tax the citizens, or visitors, to rebuild the levees. Too expensive. Now they want the rest of the country to pay for it. That is all good and well, but I will guarantee that the “poor” sections will not be rebuilt as low-cost affordable housing. There is no plan for rebuilding the slums, nor does the State of LA have any plans for housing any returning “less-fortunates”. When you hear about the post-Katrina clean up, think about the 3,000 or so convicted sex offenders NO no longer has to worry about.

I edited a couple of posts. Just fixing the links up to reduce the sidescroll. I really can’t help myself. Carry on.

Eccles- don’t let our forays into side issues put you off your stride- The topic is so huge- it is difficult to stay focused. I am really valuing what you have to say.

Clarky90 -

Believe me, I am endeavoring to remain focused on the issue at hand. In one sense, having now come up through Level 3, the basic principles are out for all to use. Beyond this point is where we will need to expand our viewpoint, as we look not only at the higher levels, but refining how we think about all of our preparations. Every time I think I might want to slacken the pace a bit, some new information surfaces on another thread that scares the beejabbers out of me and rekindles the impetus.

Regarding the killer that fell from the skies

I personally don’t like “Deux ex machina” theories introduced which seem to only describe one single event. Having thought about this for 10 minutes yielded, for myslef anyway, an equally plausible explanation:

The second wave was actually a different virus than the first wave. The second wave virus may have had a longer incubation period, on the order of a couple weeks. The virus spread as one of the theories for the Black Death posits. Then when the long incubation period began to expire, it had already spread h2H over the previous weeks. With the wartime mobilizations and personnel movements, it would have lots of opportunites to get to lots of places simultaneously

Disgusting developing, and totally preventable if the West would fund the prevention of pandemics at the sources, from the WSJ today. Imagine potentially infected birds just let turned loose…

“9:30 a.m.: Vietnamese poultry farmers may be forced into bankruptcy by bird flu, an official said. The virus is causing some US$44 million in losses each month to the poultry industry because products can’t be marketed, said Tran Cong Xuan, president of the Vietnam Poultry Farmers Association. Many farmers with flocks larger than 100 have released their birds into the rice fields because they can no longer afford to feed them, he said, which could cause the disease to spread further. He placed blame on “excessive misinformation” in state-controlled media, which advised people not to consume poultry products. Banks have agreed to allow poultry farmers to postpone paying their debts for one year.” http://tinyurl.com/brkqd paying the affected farmers decently for their chickens ia lot cheaper than treating and recovering from a pandemic.

Regarding the killer that fell from the skies

“An external reservoir of the virus in the high atmosphere, amplified by the exudations of billions of high-flying migratory birds, cannot be ignored, no matter how unlikely it might sound. Winter downdrafts could bring down the amplified virus as nuclei of mist that can directly enter the respiratory tracts of susceptible humans. A heavy fallout in any location could give a semblance of high infectivity which would then be an illusion.”

Eccles ,

While your description of the second wave is IMO highly plausible, I have to wonder how plausible Sir Fred Hoyle and Chandra Wickramasinghe’s scenario might be… 50/50?

Eccles, sorry, I was just being a smart alec. I expect less than zero help from my government, they have proven their ineptness, much to the demise of many in N.O. My family is prepared for disaster, in any form it should take. The calls/letters/emails I sent during Katrina fell on deaf ears- everyone was on their summer vacation!

Eccles, I like you prep postings, have copied them all for my home folder.

re the “offical notification” thing for N.O. it’s a he said-said thing..bottom line- no one did anything until the media made it a headline…and then did precious little. (Remember the nightline interview with “Brownie”!)

Grace - Glad you’re able to make use of my natterings. It has been my hope to help people understand the approach they need to take when attempting a potentially massive project such as preparing for a Pandemic.

I’m still trying to come to grips with exactly what to say about Levels 4 and 5. If I say it one way, it will scare the bejabbers out of everyone and they’ll freeze up instead of thinking it through. If I understate it, they won’t take it seriously enough. Your inputs on other threads have fed my thinking for this one. I guess that’s how a Wiki works.

Eccles,

That’s exactly the point: no one of us will think of everything but working together we can cover all the important bases.

Eccles,

There’s also the timeframe issue. Maybe preparing for Levels 4 and 5 can’t be done in a few weeks. Maybe it can’t be done by individuals. Maybe, this is what I am suggesting, preparation for Levels 4 and 5 *need* cooperation and developement of things we currently don’t have now. Things like growing food near home, even if it takes creating local currencies for motivation to “stay local”, or imaginative aproaches like http://www.rooftopgardens.ca Things like self reliance for basic energy; yes, I’m all for getting luxury energy from abroad if that’s cheaper; but basic energy is a personal security thing. (Not to talk about national security etc.) http://groups.yahoo.com/group/oil_from_algae

So maybe we might want to change the focus for Levels 4 and 5, and think along these lines: we have to restructure this and that, these are the priorities, this is what we should do first, and this is the way to do it. What would we do if we had 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, 1 year, 3 years? Of course, I understand preparation for Levels 1 to 3 are part of what’s needed in Levels 4 and 5, so that part is already done (written)!

This is the path that has been started, admittedly with very feeble and shy first steps, at http://www.globalvillages.info/index.php/TheEmergencyToolshed/Pandemic (public domain).

Could we perhaps look at what we *do* have, and build from there, in a sort of “appreciative inquiry” (AI, not to be confused with the “other” AI ;)) or “assets based community developement” (ABCD) aproach?

What could be a next step in our cooperative thinking?

Eccles, thank you!

Lugon - I certainly agree that a community solution is a potentially better approach to making it through a Level 4 or 5 Pandemic. The problem I have been facing in writing about preparation for these levels is that they begin to require the planner to look at sustainability in the long term, not just running from stored supplies. Thus your suggestion of energy self reliance is a good one.

As one gets to the higher levels, the concept of collective efforts to insure everyone’s survival and well being becomes more and more attractive. The one problem I can see with that here in the US is that individuals do not usually think along those lines (myself included). Thus, my thought would be that these are the levels we will need to try to educate and stimulate planning and preparation on the community, town or regional level. As we have seen from Katrina, such planning on the National level cannot be counted on.

Eccles,its grass roots stuff. I figure if we can get together for a party we should be able to get together to make a pot of soup. Remember the old fable about the stone soup? A walled city was under siege and the people were running out of food. An old woman built a fire under a pot of water,put in a stone, and when hungry curious people came up and asked what she was cooking she told them “stone soup”. Then she would ask them if they have just one onion or carrot left hiding in their cupboard that they might contribute to the soup. Eventually there were plenty of vegetables in the pot, and everyone went away fed. It takes one brave soul to start with what they have. I also appreciate your efforts, and they will not be wasted.

Oh, I did try to talk to some neighbors, but we were planning a Christmas dinner and it wasn’t a good time. It’s my fault, I wasn’t confident enough to break in. But tonight we have a larger meeting, and I will try to read the letter (from this site) inviting people to sit and discuss preparations for possible pandemic. Wish me luck. The letter is so humble and unpretentious, I think they will hear it.

Lorelle - Lots of luck. I wish you success because even if a Pandemic never happens, it is always good when one can pull a neighborhood closer together. It also can change the way people think about their situation.

To digress a little to provide a story to demonstrate how mindset can be very damaging.. A few years ago, I was sitting in the outplacement center of a large corporation, having recently been “disemployed”. Prior to this, I was a fairly senior staff member and had been trained for 2 years to assume a position at a high corporate level (before they closed my division). While sitting there and looking at all of the talent wandering around trying to find new jobs, it struck me that we had an entire new company sitting there.

All I, or someone would have to do is stand up and say “You, engineers - start developing our new product. You purchasing guys - find us a building to set up in. You - marketing guys - work with me to find venture funding. You - production manager - start planning a manufacturing facility. I discussed this idea with some others. The general philosophy was “GET BENT. I need a job. Not starting up some bogus new company.” No one saw that it was one and the same, differing only by whether it was everyone for himself, or a community effort to get everyone jobs together.

Lorelle, I hope your neighbors can see the value of planning together. Especially in the possible problems one faces in a flu Pandemic, it would sure be nice to have everyone there to help care for those who need it and provide a common support system.

Eccles, maybe we are “starting up some bogus new civilization (aka “way to live”)”?

Lorelle, are you using “letter to neighbours”? The letter I wrote building on what others had previously written? Please tell us of your success!

And you may not want to “sit” but rather gather around pieces of paper, writing down key issues (a word in capitals at the center of the page, perhaps) and then adding to common work - a “paper wiki” so to speak. (I think that’s what they use at “world cafe”.)

OK, we had the block meeting, and after an hour of discussing the noemal drugs and shootings in the area with police, they left and other business taken care of, I spoke up. It’s a small group, and mostly tired and elderly, so getting to the point quickly without much detail was important. I loosly followed the theme from a sample letter to neighbors, it might have been yours lugon, not sure. But I rattled on a little bit until they seemed to be following, and several agreed when I said “ we might not find any good answers, but it needs to be discussed.” Maybe I can get a few to gather at my house later. Step by step. Meanwhile I called city hall to find out who might know what is being done, and the lady didn’t have a clue what pandemic meant, and when I said bird flu she forwarded my call to the bird person who looks for West Nile Virus crows etc. No answer yet, but may I can stir up some talk. Thanks invisible thinkers for the encouragement! I feel your presence.

Oh, another thing I said is that if we can get together to plan a holiday party, maybe we can get together to plan for an emergency as well.

Lorelle -

..I called city hall to find out who might know what is being done, and the lady didn’t have a clue what pandemic meant, and when I said bird flu she forwarded my call to the bird person who looks for West Nile Virus crows etc…

This account of yours is an incredibly valuable input to your (and everyone else’s) planning. It shows that, as we have been seeing in place after place, at the local level, the basic reaction to Pandemic preparation is:

Huh?

This makes a great deal of sense from an organizational level. Most large organizations, including governments are designed with functions cellularized. That is, particular tasks are done by particular individuals or particular offices. They get a budget to perform these tasks, and are evaluated based on how well they accomplish the task within the budget and operating constraints of their organization.

The problem that we all face is that in Local, County, or City governments is there isn’t anyone whatsoever whose title and job description contain the word “Pandemic”. The closest we could come is the local Health Department. Their job is not to plan for support and supply. Their job is to inspect facilities that either dispense health care or food and make sure they are operating normally. I don’t believe anyone could point to the Office or Individual charged with Pandemic Preparation and who has the budget to be doing what needs to be done right now.

At the State and Federal levels, right now, from all of the accounts we are seeing is that the few people who are tasked with Pandemic Planning, are in the stage of:

Determining the best approach to use to develop the plan that will describe how the local people will plan, and then plan how to communicate the planning guidelines to the local planners.

Especially after the Congressional budget fiasco, we can now rest assured that no one, no organization, no where has any budget or mandate to worry about how they will get medical care, supplies or police and fire protection to you in the event of a serious Pandemic. They are not at this moment purchasing any supplies to get them through surge conditions. Therefore, we can use this information in developing our own personal plans.

Recall that the premise I have used thus far in trying to guide folks along the path to a systematic plan is that you must first anticipate the conditions or events you will encounter, next determine how you will deal with those conditions, and then stock provisions accordingly.

From that one phone call, you have pretty much confirmed that if we experienced a major Pandemic, your community will be disorganized, unsupplied and probably chaotic.

That’s just my interpretation. If anyone reading this thread wishes to differ, I would love to hear a different viewpoint.

(As a side point, one of the pieces of evidence I use to watch the Pandemic Privisioning process as opposed to the Planning process,is to watch the web sites of standard suppliers to the big outfits, like labsafety.com. When they start showing “Out-of-Stock” flags on numerous glove and mask items on their site, I’ll know that there is some real surge supply effort going on. Just like everything else in the US, I’ll assume that they and their suppliers do not have sufficient stock on hand to cover surge conditions. When supplies get scarce, I’ll assume that something is going on. Right now, I anticipate you’ll see the scarcity only when the first actual news of sustained H2H is heard. Then it will be too late to get any of this stuff anymore.)

If you make it just as fun, then maybe the job will get done! Just like puppies: they play but they are also getting ready to fight like adults … (Yes, we need to get into the “flu sim” game making.)

Thanks for sharing!

sorry “lugon - at 11:43″ was a reply to “Lorelle - at 08:24″

And yes, Eccles, we might want to work a little deeper on how to get that part of the job done. How to make community preparation a fact. The million dollar question, I guess.

Level 4 and 5 - Planning Criteria and Reasonable Preparations

Continuing the discussion of the conditions we can expect to encounter and what the reasonable planning criteria are each level, we now get to Levels 4 and 5, which are the most difficult to plan for. The reason for this difficulty is that both of these levels represent events that are unprecedented in the history of industrial society, and so in some degree anything I or anyone else say is purely conjecture.

But having made that introduction, and resuming my role as planning helper, we can begin to look at just what we;re up against. In my original planning criteria, Level 4 was stated to be a Pandemic situation worse than 1918. For the purpose of this discussion, I’ll place an estimated fatality level at 5%, with many other people suffering long-term debilitation from their encounter with the virus. Similarly Level 5 was stated simply to be Pandemic Plague. Now, as I am not a medical practitioner, I do not claim to be using those terms correctly. What I intended to suggest with that label was a highly virulent illness, spreading H2H and with a fatality rate in excess of 10% of the population. Similar to the plagues of the past.

In our planing for previous levels, we have become used to stockpiling those materials whose supply we feel will become interrupted for a while, such as medicines, foodstuffs, water and fuel. At this point, the guidance becomes much less precise and yet more urgent:

You will need to provide a supply of everything you anticipate needing for an extended period. It may be months or even years before some of the things you have grown to depend on will again be available. If ever.

I am lumping Levels 4 and 5 together for two reasons; first, I don’t view them as distinctly different planning problems, and second, if we experience a Pandemic at either of these levels, the world we live in and the social and economic conditions in your local area will be drastically different from what they are today. So what general guidlines can I offer for planing;

1) Medicines - You will need to stockpile a year’s worth of maintenance medicines simply because, as Michael Osterholm pointed out in his testimony before Congress, the production of medicines in this and other countries will be disrupted due to supply chain failures. You will need to be self reliant for a good long while. If there is a substance whose availability is a matter of life and death, you will need enough to insure a steady supply in the face of major disruption. You should also be looking at what, if any, alternatives you may have in front of you for maintenance without those, or any meds. Some may face the sudden unavailability of life saving therapies such as dialysis.

2) Doctors and Hospitals - There may be very little emergency treatment available for injuries or acute disease. You should be prepared with sufficient first aid materials and learning to be able to treat all but the most severe injuries yourself. It may be a long wait before you can obtain professional medical treatment.

3) Personal Supplies and Toiletries - What do you use? How much do you plan to stock? Do you really need it? What will you do either as an alternative or without it?

4) Food and Water - How much can you really store? What is your plan for an ongoing supply past what is on your shelves? Do you have, or can you get to open ground to grow some of your own food? Can you catch rain or dig a well if you need to? Did you include seeds and tools in your stockpile?

5) Light and Heat. What is the climate where you live? What renewable source of energy will you use for light and heat, as normal utilities will most certainly be disrupted, and however much fuel you store will eventually run out. Think of needs for heating, cooking, lighting and cooling.

6) Personal Safety - This is the point where the discussions in the “Post Pandemic Violence” thread become applicable

the list goes on for quite a while. I think you get the idea. Once we get to these higher levels, you also need to consider one additional concept..

Returning to the lower levels

Now that I have given a view of Levels 4 and 5, I personally would like to turn my attention again to Levels 2 and 3, which is where I personally think the maximum likely event would fall. If folks would like, I would like to start discussing filling the holes in your plans that you didn’t realize were there. One example is what you intend to eat your food off of during the emergency. Paper plates? Do you have enough? Where will you discard them. Will you instead use permanent dishes? How much water do you need to wash them?

Please consider issues like these, and we can move deeper into planning details (and there are many) as this thread matures.

Levels 4 and 5 are indeed challenging to prepare for. Your overall assessment at these levels is in line with some of the more recent estimates by the National Health Security Policy Center and the CBO for a severe flu (which are based on a 1918-like flu).

When you said you believe that we will likely only see a level 2 or level 3, will the level three include impacts as noted above? Or are you counting the above scenarios in levels 4 or 5?

My own personal view is that a 1918 strength bug is the maximum I will see. (Note - I am not a virologist or medical expert, but rather an engineer. Your own mileage may very). I anticipate that in the event of a 1918 strength flu (Level 3), things will be grim, and supplies will be scarce for some period of time, but things will eventually resume a semblance of normalcy, although shifted in many directions from the current status quo.

But those are my views, and the basis for my own plans. Everyone must asses the situation based on his/her own analysis, and then plan and provision to provide for themselves at the level of problem they expect to face.

It is better to over expect than to under expect, but if you pan and prepare at all, you are far ahead of most everyone else.

I’ve just read this entire thread — long but interesting — thanks to Eccles and all other contributors (who didn’t always agree but I found all perspectives equally useful).

On the need for preparation:

• Re the suggestion that it’s no use worrying for 1% flu fatalities. This misses the point entirely. We’re actually preparing for the supply chain disruption & health system breakdown that would be expected due to panic and/or absenteeism—not for 1% fatalities.
• That the 1918 flu seemed a relatively quiet event. This ignores the radical change represented by globalization and just-in-time supply chains. Most people got most of what they needed locally or regionally. During wars, etc. they might run out of cocoa, tea etc that came from far away, but they had most of the basics. Not so today. This also ignores the vulnerability of a society entirely reliant on a reliable supply of electricity, energy, etc. E.g. In a pinch, those in cold climates could go out and chop wood (or furniture) to stoke fires for warmth and cooking — that’s hardly feasible in a downtown highrise.
• If the virus “falls from the sky”, all the more reason to have a plan to do what you can to nurse sick family members, because we won’t be able to count on healthcare systems.
• The more we can take care of ourselves, the less strain we’ll place on those systems. We may even be able to pitch in and help others.
• Uncertainty and/or enormity are no reason to throw your hands in the air. If it’s that bad, some us will do everything possible and still fail. Others will succeed.
• I agree with the suggestion that longer-term catastrophic consequences would require community collaboration and a completely different approach. Stocking up and being self-sufficient makes much sense for the short term but it’s simply not practical over a certain point.

Some additional suggestions re phased preparation:

• Scout out stores (and alternatives) close by where you can stock up in a hurry. (E.g., I’ve found a nearby tool rental store that sells N95 masks. I don’t want to spend $$ in advance for something I may never need and I know Home Depot will run out quick, so this is where I’ll be going.
• Keep a shopping list (items and sources) so that you can move wuickly if you have to.
• For most people, complete isolation will prove to be impractical (even for those who plan to go that route) so your planning should bear that in mind (masks, gas for the car, etc). I don’t want to end up in the soup lines (where many would end up!) but I certainly wouldn’t want to lock myself away. However, we’d need to wait to see how the actual pandemic is playing out to set our personal risk boundaries and of course, those would differ for everybody. Keep in mind that it would be extremely difficult to keep kids locked up at home for weeks or months, so you might have to come up with some compromises (e.g. small closed loops of contacts that would minimise transmission risks)
• National grocery chains might be especially vulnerable to interrupted supply chains. Consider where you might find local supplies of food. This also relates to movements to preserve family farms, initiatives like 100-Mile Diet & Farm Folk/City Folk, farmers markets, etc. We need to support local producers in the good times if we want them to be there when we need them.
• Not a lot of attention has been paid to financial aspects: including liquidity, investment strategies, etc. We’ve all been encouraged to max out our credit lines, to put all our savings into revenue generating investments like stock market or real estate and to go shopping to support our economy. This approach is the exact opposite of what you’d need in a disastrous situation. I’m not saying to sell off your stocks and put the cash under the mattress, but a more balanced approach may need to be considered.

…and, finally, a request for info:

• I’m not mechanically minded, so the debate about inverters, etc totally lost me. I also don’t want to go out and buy stuff I may never need. I do have basic camping gear (camp stove and a few bottles of camping gas, battery flashlight and FM radio), and a gas BBQ in the backyard, but I’m wondering what would make most sense, with the most limited investment, in terms of backup cooking, light and heat supply. (We live on the rainy west coast, urban setting, no fireplace, but wood fuel would be free & plentiful if needed.)

Top posting this since many newcomers to the wiki could benefit from this thread greatly.

Hi Nemo,

To answer your question about staged preparation, we decided at the outset that while this thing may be about to let loose, it could also be 10 years away, and we couldn’t afford to invest in anything major that we weren’t sure we would use. So we’ve done a staged prep approach, like many others.

Stage 1 (Fall 05 to present):

• Research & planning: Thinking through what we might need, researching sites like Flu Wiki, asking questions etc. Reviewed what was already in our 3-day earthquake kit and what useful role existing supplies might play: camping supplies, gas BBQ, a rain barrell for watering garden in summer droughts etc. Also considering our particular regional risks and assets (Pacific NW so lots of rain except in summer & lots of firewood growing out back if need be (though no fireplace, alas!)
• Starting to slowly build up a food/household supplies pantry. This is all stuff we will use anyway. We’re buying in bulk — toilet paper in the giant 40-roll bag vs the usual 8-roll whenever we find things on special, etc. We set up some shelves downstairs for the extra stocks and have started rotating. Anytime something comes up, it goes on the grocery list to be replaced. Trained family to get with the program.
• We’re also slowly buying extra suplies that we may never eat otherwise (canned hams etc) but we’ll rotate those out to the food bank every six months if we don’t use them.
• Scouting out where we can quickly buy stuff that we’re not yet ready to invest in: spare propane tank for BBQ, more N95 masks (we have just one box so far), backup heating & lighting apart from basic camping lamps & flashlights etc
• Closely monitoring news and gradually trying to learn more about the threat from various sources and prep wisdom from the folks here.
• Training family to practice good flu hygiene.

Stage 2 As soon as it’s clear this is most likely imminent as opposed to something that may happen next year or a couple years from now. Possibly now, though still holding off.

• Buy the heavier bulk supplies (bags of rice, etc) and any basics that we haven’t accummulated yet or that need replacing in the pantry.
• Buy more masks, drinking water, propane cylinder, OTC flu meds, etc (i.e the stuff most likely to run out quickly when others start panicking)
• Re-check supplies more carefully to ensure our quantities make sense for at least 3 - 4 weeks self-isolation if necessary.
• Try to get neighbours & friends to take action before stuff starts running short. Help them out with planning templates etc (this isn’t as unselfish as it may sound)

Stage 3:

• Full pandemic. Unlikely to be here yet but days to weeks away. We’d have a clearer picture re how serious the virus is and what exactly to prepare for.
• Re-assess our situation and if we feel we need to really batten down, we’d get hold of whatever is available to stretch out our basic supplies and back-up systems.
• Talk to family doc re anything extra to get for possible home care.
• Re-assess finances, possibly cash in some investments to have quick assess to cash if needed.
• Discuss the tough choices — who will take kid if we’re sick.
• Reassess decision to stay in city (we could pack up and head to a very isolated rural retreat with close relatives if it’s looking really bad). It’s off the grid and very self-sufficient and one is an MD.

There it is. Since we each have our own unique circumstances and risk threshholds, read what everyone else is doing and then sit down and discuss with yr family re what’ll work best for you. Good luck!

Oops forgot to mention something important for Stage 1 was stocking up on giant size supplies of regular OTC medicines — No-name acetominaphen (Tylenol) etc — as well as a thermometer, bleach, Kleenex, babywipes, etc. This stuff may also run out early, so if you’ll make use of it anyway, get it now.

A big heartfelt thank you to those of you who are working so hard at this. Nothing like a few cases in Istanbul to focus the mind on what we need to do.

Name, Thanks so much for taking the time to put that all down for us here. It is very helpful to see how others are organizing their prep steps, and where in the chain of events they feel they need to get certain things accomplished. It is very very helpful.

The only comment I might make on your prep steps at this time, is that I order masks at least 6 weeks ago. I had a hard time finding any IN STOCK. Apparently, 3M has been working 24 shifts/7 days a week to try to get caught up. Don’t know if they have yet. I did find some, but was very glad I ordered when I did. That is one area the medical community does seem to be paying attention too and the very large orders from hospitals has really been extensive. You might want to consider doing a search and seeing if you can still get the masks in bulk (way cheaper if you get them, say, 20 or more at a time)still. Some of the companies took my order online, then a couple days later I would get an email saying backordered. Some said it would be x number of weeks, some did not know. I know the average med supply place only keeps about 40 in stock at any given time. Those won’t go far.

Thanks again for your input. Hope others will add their Prep Steps to this thread for others to learn from.

We found them by the box of 20 a block away at a tool rental store when we took a ladder out a few weeks back (I figured not too many prepaholics would be looking there!). Thanks for the heads-up, will check again this afternoon when I pass by and maybe get an extra box or two.

You can suggest to others to also check places where construction people shop, since they use them for demolitions and other nasty jobs, etc.

Thanks for all of the detailed plans and advice!

I just wanted to offer a couple of nuggets of info for any newcomers who have not had an emergency kit before.

I have two very large coolers with wheels that I bought on sale years ago to serve as my “emergency kit”. Instead of cardboard boxes or plastic totes, I chose coolers so that they would be readily available to store stuff from the freezer/fridge if power goes out. They have wheels so I can easily move them if need be. Twice a year (once in the summer before hurricane season and again in the early winter before any chance of an ice storm), I go through the coolers and check dates, take inventory, and rotate batteries and medicines if necessary. Throughout the year, I occasionally notice something at the store that would be helpful for the kit and I just buy it and toss it in. I keep the coolers handy and accessible in a back room. In recent months I’ve added the upgraded masks, but I’ve had some sort of mask or other in there since 9/11. Anytime I find a good readiness plan — whether from the Red Cross or the government or this wiki — I add the print-out to my emergency kit so in future inventory sessions I can make sure I have what I’ll need.

Several years ago after a hurricane, we were without electricity for days (for some people it was weeks). We had the battery-powered radio which was helpful. However, many radios were simulcasting with sister TV stations. We would be listening to the local tv report on the radio. It was very frustrating to hear them say that important info was on the bottom of the screen or when they showed maps on the screen and we radio listeners could not see, of course. After that, I bought a tiny battery-powered TV. You can get them very cheaply, especially when they are on sale. There might be crankable ones…not sure about that.

I’m sorry if this is common sense to you pro-preppers out there.

Dear Eccles Great plan. I was thinking somewhat like that only I was talking about triggering events that would cause me to go to the next stage (mainly expenditure) of preparation and I started at Level 3 because that seems to be where we are now. I have gotten my family involved and committed to come to our farm as their “rural retreat” and we are in the middle of stockpiling and safely storing the right amount of food and other supplies for 6 + 3 little ones. It is complicated but we are treating it like a hobby—and virtually all our spending is for things that are useful and wise to have even if there never is a flu pandemic.

I would be interested in hearing from a variety of people about what they think would be the absolute cheapest foods they could stockpile for a 6 month isolation and still be reasonably healthy. How much quantity for one person and what would be the lowest cost assuming buying at a Sams or Costco or something similar. I am thinking beans, rice, sprouts plus ???? Any ideas what else is needed for good health?

I mention this because so many people are talking about problems being able to afford stockpiling and it would be good to know the absolute minimum per person for 6 months and then anything beyond that is up to the individuals’ choice to make life better. That way we could also know what we as a society would have to spend to give basic food security to people that simply can’t afford anything. Relatives and churches could use it to provide for their family or their parishiners.

I’m not the expert but hear lots of people talking about beans and rice as staples. Don’t forget vitamin supplements, as you’re unlikley to be getting the greatest diet if nothing’s fresh. Things like dehydrated onions & soup veg from bulk bins. Powdered milk. Tang (instead of OJ). But buy small amounts first and try these things—you don’t want to find yourself facing 6 months of something you can’t stand. Look out for favourite comfort foods on special (pasta & sauce, pancake mix, dry cereals for the kids). If you have to live off your own cooking for six months, it’s going to get very dreary anyway (most of us are so spoiled by restaurants!) so you could get real miserable living off rice & beans unless you really love it.

Don’t forget to stock the medicine cabinet too.

25# bags of beans, brown rice, split peas, barley, steel cut oats…any health food store or coop will have good quality product and it’s not expensive (25# bag of hulled barley cost me $12/rice cost $18/etc.) Canned tuna. Right now walgreens has large chicken of the sea pink salmon for one dollar a can. Health food stores have great dried veggies for soups…not expensive. If you just stock up on cheap empty calories like pasta, etc, you’re not getting a lot of bang for the buck as far as nutrition.

Oh, and you can get sprouting seeds in bulk, too, from health food stores or coops. Easy, cheap, and loaded with nutrition. Dried fruit & nuts, too.

An alternate comfort food to something like mac and cheese is short grain brown rice and cheese, spice with a little onion powder and tamari. Its just loaded with fiber and vitamins.

I guess what I’m trying to say is that if space and money is limited I’d opt for the most nutritious foods I could get. They really don’t have to be any more dull or boring than the SAD (standard American diet) is.

does anyone have an idea about what to do when in isolation about the pets? We have a dog. Should I let him in and out to go to the bathroom? How would we deccontaminate him? We live by the ocean and there are a lot of sea birds pooing everywhere. I can’t imagine isolating our pooch in the garage and just letting him in and out but with no company. life not worth living according to our dog who loves humans. but i will do it if it means not exposing the kids. am i over thinking this?

cel - What I have decided to do is to keep our dog and cat indoors through all the waves of infection. If a dog or cat goes outside, it may encounter an infected bird, dead or alive, or walk in infected bird feces. Either way, the result is to bring the virus back in the house. My cat and dog can both use a litter box. Granted, a large dog would require a large litter box, but I have no other solution. I have bought a large amount of litter for both of them.

Thanks our dog is small-medium and highly trainable, maybe paper? How to dipose of it all though? Maybe litter is a better idea. less stink. maybe throw it all on the compost far away from the house. Should I purchase lime for both household and animal waste? Thanks for any info.

Yesterday I made rice pudding. It took forever because I used brown rice and it takes longer to cook. A lesson learned just in time.

Nestle makes a table cream (sour cream) that stores in cans. Mix it with the dried veggie mix from any health food store and it makes a great dip (wait a few hours). Put it with cheddar over refried beans, and it makes a great dip. Pour over chicken and bake with onion powder. I have at least a dozen cans in my storage. Very useful. JMHO

Ordered two 5# bags of beef bits from Survival Acres. About $9 a bag. Butter powder and whole dried eggs are on sale. I bought the 1 lb mylar bags. They tuck away easy, and the smaller quantity promotes better storage life after opening.

1 Can of Spam - slice 1/4″ thick 1 Can Crushed Pineapple 1 Can White, New Potatoes 1 Can Yams 1 Tbsp. Butter 1 Cup Dark Brown Sugar

Directions: In a large, double piece of heavy duty foil (shiny side in), place the Spam slices. Cover it with the potatoes and yams. Layer it with 1/2 a cup of the brown sugar and the pineapples. Layer again with the other 1/2 cup of brown sugar and the butter. Fold the foil from the top until it is tight around the contents of the packet. Do the same with the ends of the foil. Place on hot coals, and cook it for 10 minutes. Turn it over, and cook it again for another 10 minutes. It’s quick, and very tasty! You can also prepare this beforehand and keep in a large baggie, kept in a cooler, until it’s ready to be cooked.

I know a man who trained his dog (who despised going out in the rain) to use a shower stall in his home’s second bathroom. He said it was easy to keep clean; he simply kept a soapy water/bleach solution handy.

Just a thought here: shades of N.O. check with local/county OEM’s re: management of jailed prisoners, prisoners in halfway houses and registered sex offenders. Horrible thought.

I’m just popping this one up so that new folks just getting into preps can get some ideas which may help.

Ganygirl Where did you find the powdered sour cream from Nestle?

Bump

I’ve noticed a number of people asking for ideas on how to get started. This site helped me see I was on the right track.

Grace, Regarding the sex offenders. Most states now have websites listing sex offenders so people can look up the ones in their area. A good prep for any disaster would be to look up those in your area and print of the info on each. If THSHF I might keep the info on those living closest to me handy so if they show up at my door I can take appropriate action. Flu or not it is a good idea to know what those living nearest where you live, work, shop or play look like for your own safety. Then re-check the listings at least every month or two for any changes.

Try www.mapsexoffenders.com

giraffe – at 12:48 Ganygirl Where did you find the powdered sour cream from Nestle?

The sour cream is just the way you find it in the tubs at the store. Ready to eat. You open the can the way you would a can of tomato paste.

Sourcream powder is available from survival acres or emergency essentials, etc..

Have not tried it yet, but in a baked potato, who is going to notice?

http://www.fluwikie.com/index.php?n=Forum.SystematicPreparationForCommunities

Just bumping this thread up so it could potentially benefit the new visitors

April earlier made mention of the usefulness of a small battery-powered TV for use in emergencies. Since I’m no technophile, can someone explain to me whether these will still be able to pick up a signal in a few years when everything is required to be broadcast digitally?

A TV designed for the current system will not be able to work with the digital signals. There has been some discussion whether the conversion date can be met by the industry, but in the worst case, the little TV will need to be replaced by a different product.

Thanks Eccles. I know that they are supposed to be coming out with (or maybe already have) some kind of digital converter box to hook to an “old” tv. Any idea how much extra electricity one of these boxes will consume, what the price of them will be, or even if they’ll work (ie, is there any place to plug in) with one of the digital converter boxes?

Kim - Since they haven’t actually come out with one yet, all things concerning them are as yet unknown.

If I’ve learned anything in the past six months it’s that this threat is unpredictable — it gets everyone all worked up into a sense that all hell is about to break loose and then it backs off, and then turns around and does something totally unexpected.

This really supports the staged approach to prepping that Eccles and others advocate:

1) Think about prepping as a long-term, ongoing thing — don’t put everything into trying to do it all at once, only to find out that the expected outbreak doesn’t happen or that H5N1 does something completely different. Focus on getting stuff that lasts, or that you expect to disappear at the first sign of trouble or that will meet a variety of needs.

2) Keep you prep plans flexible so that you can adapt as the situation changes. This also supports a staged approach; keeping informed and regularly reviewing your prep plans to ensure that they make sense to you.

3) We can all learn from each other, but do your own thing. We all have unique needs and differing risk threshholds. For some, 6 weeks of living on rice and beans may be a worse hell than the flu itself, so take away the principles and adapt them to suit your own needs.

4) There’s a lot more to prepping that stocking up the pantry. Thinking through the full implications of lifestyle adjustments due to self-isolation, closed schools, being unable to go to work, getting sick, etc; hygiene/medical care needs; financial considerations—work, investments, cash flow; links outside the immediate family—relatives, neighbours and communities. Also learning to understand the threats, to filter out what’s accurate and relevant from what’s hype, and to keep it all in perspective and remember to enjoy life.

We’ve all got a lot to learn and part of it has to do with looking at a much bigger picture than H5N1. But my panic level has gone way down after all the effort I’ve put into this in the past several months.

Nicely said Name.

I find that I can now resolve that there were two seperate areas of concern for me, one of which has calmed way down, and the other not at all.

The one area of concern which covered whether I had sufficient material on hand to make it through several months of shortages has quieted considerably. While you never feel that you have enough STUFF, the fact of the matter is that we now have enough stuff on hand to make it through almost any reasonably anticipatable emergency in which our house is still structurally intact, and “The Night of the Living Dead” isn’t bashing down our door. I still feel the need to acquire tertiary and quaternary backups to the backups, but those can rationally be defered until the far future.

The other area of concern is the H5N1 itself. There is no amount of planning, and no amount of provisioning that can truly prepare you for what may (or may never) come along. I know how to keep things working in my house. I don’t know how to treat an illness with a 60% fatality rate, especially if I am all on my own. The experts can’t even agree yet on the true vectors by which it travels and whether it is even safe to step outside the building. I don’t know whether after 16 years of isolation you emerge and immediately are struck by it anyway. So there is one area where my concern has not abated.

But by systematically identifying the supply and operating needs of the family, and provisioning accordingly, I have put myself into the best position to handle shortages. that will have to do for now.

Eccles Ive been reading your posts for quite some time now. Dammit…..you are one sensible chap and if there was anyone who deserved to make it through I think you would be in the running.

I salute your common sense and effort here on this wikki.

Thank you, but I think I’m not nearly the clever chap some make me out to be (Just ask my wife). In one sense, I feel that THIS is my community service in the face of H5N1, as I won’t have the freedom to be out and helping when the balloon goes up. I always wonder if I am actually helping anybody, so thanks for the feedback.

Stop wondering, Eccles, you have helped many already, and new folks are logging in all the time. BTW my radio plays loud and clear from 300 turns (not cranky) a morning. :)

I’ll betcha that if you put 300 turns on it every morning, you can probably skip a day now and then and it will still play just fine. I’ll bet you’ve gotten ahead of it a little. (And the internal batteries thank you a bunch for feeding them the right way).

You might be amused that my wife and son will sometimes yell downstairs at me to stop cranking that thing already! When I am doing some experiment or other and they find the sound annoying. Especially my son. He has ears like a bat that one does.

spamm

[spam removed]