That’s Just Ducky! – at 14:16
Most of the public, even if they have heard of the bird flu, have no idea what the CFR could be. Most have never heard of the 1918–1919 pandemic, and if they have, they probably have no idea how bad it was. So when the pandemic starts, if the CFR is low enough, there won’t be mass panic. People will continue to go to work, etc. at least for some period of time. If the CFR is high enough, the majority of people will stop going to work fairly immediately and there will be mass panic. So when we talk about case attack rate and case infection rate, what we are really talking about, in this context is worker absentism for whatever reason. Illness, themselves and/or loved ones, fear, transportation or child care issues, whatever the reason is that they aren’t at work.
There is a supply chain for keeping the power plants operational. If there are enough workers missing from their jobs, a breakdown at any point on that supply chain Will likely occur. A breakdown at any point along that supply chain will probably result in a failure of the Grid. For example, fuel is needed to convert energy into electricity. The fuel has to be transported to the power plant. There are multiple supply chains for that to occur. Any breakdown of those supply chains… and so on. In a nutshell, if the supply chain breaks down for a period that lasts longer than the supply of fuel for the power plants lasts, there is no way on God’s green earth that the Grid will stay up. And, as I’m sure we all realize, if the Grid goes down, it all goes down.
I would like to hope that in this scenario the Department of Defense is prepared to mobilize the military soon enough, in sufficient numbers and for a long enough period of time (which would be dependant on the CFR) to supply enough food and water in sufficient quantities fast enough to avert or at least minimize to some sufficient degree the mass panic and anarchy that would result in a critical mass of collateral damage in at least some cities. There would not be enough resources to accomplish this in all, or even most cities. The rural areas will be completely on their own. At some point the demand for resources would equalize with the supply of resources. The period of time for that to occur would probably depend largely dependant on how high the CFR is.
No matter how I look at it, even if the Department of Defense were able to properly plan and execute a plan for mobilization, I don’t see how there would be enough resources to be sufficiently successful in this endeavor if the CFR is high enough, to prevent a complete breakdown of law and order. How would you define high enough? 5%, 10%? I don’t know, but I’m sure scientists have run simulations and have a pretty good idea. This is an extremely complex issue.
If the Grid goes down, it all goes down.
MamaBird,
I think your scenario is entirely possible, but you still haven’t answered my question re: fleeing the megacities. If people have no access to electricity, water and food, do you think they will stay or go? Do you think they will have any of those things if the CFR is 50% and the city has not conducted very serious preparations? At what CFR do you think the Grid will fail, if any?
Same questions for Skeptic.
LMWatBullRun – at 15:05
TJD-
You have independently arrived at the same conclusion many of us have regarding the grid; if it goes down, it all goes down.
I am not aware of whether there are any good detailed failure mode models for electrical power, but I doubt it. The question before us is whether or not there is anything that can be done, over the near term, to prevent a severe pandemic from knocking out the power system and causing massive colllateral damage.
My thinking is that the military will not be able to significantly affect the outcome over the near term, as electrical linesmen have to be trained, the grid infrastructure rebuilt, and the political drivers which have placed us in this situation changed. This takes not only trained people, which the military does not have, it also takes a LOT of material, which the military also does not have. In short, this is not a mission for an organization designed to kill people and break things.
This is a task which will likely take several years and billions of dollars to accomplish best case, and absent an actual pandemic there is no justification in the minds of TPTB for making any such change.
See Pournelle’s Iron Law of Bureaucracy.
My overall assessment is that in the event of a severe pandemic the grid will go down and there will be severe collateral damage. I see no way to prevent this. It is possible that Monotreme is right and that certain regions will fare much better than others, but in my judgement there has been so much centralization of production in the name of maximizing efficiency and cutting costs, that there will be essential component manufacture located in some area that collapses, and that even those localities that avoid immediate collapse will collapse in the longer term.
for example, how many processes depend on microelectronics? How many microelectronic production facilities are located in the so-called A zones?
LMWatBullRun – at 15:05
I’m assuming that a vaccine will be available at some point, hopefully before the second wave. I’m also assuming a fairly large region survives the first wave, ie, the Northwest, Midwest or the Southeast. Obviously, the larger the region that remains intact, the faster the reboot will be.
I heard a story on NPR about getting power plants back on line in NOLA. The engineers could not get the parts they needed fast enough, so they completely rebuilt something with whatever was available. They had to be creative and work with whatever was at hand. By all accounts, they were able to get these power plants operational quickly and cheaply without much from the outside. Truly amazing.
We should not discount adaptability or resourcefullness. After all, it is precisely the people with these characteristics who are most likely to survive.
Gee, Monotreme, does mean that “Yankee Ingenuity” works in the south too? LOL
meant “does that mean that…”
Monotreme – at 15:15
We should not discount adaptability or resourcefullness. After all, it is precisely the people with these characteristics who are most likely to survive.
Yes. It will probably be on a level of resourcefullness that the Apollo 13 engineers had.
AVanarts – at 22:05
Well, now I might be careful about the use of the word “Yankee”, but I do think there are some excellent engineers down south.
Oremus – at 22:24
Agreed. I think these sorts of people will rise to the occasion.
AVanarts – at 22:05 “I say son you need to save those Confederate dollars as the South shall rise again.”
Unfortunately they are mostly transplanted Yankees and all of us southerners are having to move up north to get away from all them carpet baggers.
Here’s an interesting page:
How Your Plant Can Weather a Hurricane
Some excerpts:
What Plants Have Learned
Manufacturers can try to weather severe storms—and help save lives—by planning and preparing for them. Planning helps plant managers know when and how to shut down operations and start them up again. Being prepared helps to speed evacuations and minimize downtime, property losses, and damage to assets.
The Louisiana Chemical Association has been coordinating with member companies in the Gulf region to document and share the lessons they learned in 2005. For example, to keep lines of communication open, many companies are establishing in-plant or mobile emergency operations centers and keeping important contact information up to date. Many others have purchased satellite phones and set up toll-free numbers outside the region for all employees to use. Some have installed satellite dishes to maintain Internet connections during emergencies.
To house employees and keep critical operations going, companies are stocking up on portable generators, cots, tents, water, nonperishable food, and first aid items. One plant installed showers in some bathrooms and purchased a washer and dryer for its administration building. Another plant plans to stock emergency supplies at the beginning of each hurricane season. And some plants that set up emergency housing in 2005 are keeping electricity and water connections in place even after returning the borrowed trailers, just in case.
Companies are also hiring employees skilled in making electrical and other repairs. And they are creating checklists needed to restart key equipment in case trained staff are not available. They are also stocking as much inventory and as many spare parts as possible and coordinating with key suppliers on emergency plans.
Comment
If every power plant and refinery did this, I’d be alot more confident that the grid would stay up.
If there is a pandemic and the grid goes down, as it likely will, where will the production facilities that are working to produce a vaccine in significant amounts get the power to continue to function uninterrupted?
Mosaic – at 23:02
I not ready to assume that the entire grid will go down. I think there are regions where it is possible that it will stay up. Conventional vaccines will be of little use during a very severe pandemic. I am hoping that a DNA vaccine is created that works in humans. If it does, this can easily be made in any standard molecular biology lab, of which there are many thousands scattered throughout the US.
Monotreme at 23:07 So, I read the link on Vical, but I did not see that they had a DNA vaccine…? Are you saying that this is one such vaccine and could be produced in many standard molecular biology labs? That would be good news indeed.
Mosaic – at 23:02
I’d be willing to bet that the military will truck in generators and everything else necessary to keep those complexes running.
Dude – at 23:31
Here’s there press release:
Single Injection of Vical’s Avian Flu DNA Vaccine Provides 100% Protection in Ferrets
Here’s a description of their Core Technology.
I’m sure there’s alot of work in designing the vector, but after that it’s just a matter of standard plasmid biolgy. Any lab that can do Maxipreps can make tons of the necessary DNA. The only issue I’m not sure about is purifying the DNA for human injection. Usually we don’t do that with plasmids ;-). They also have a proprietary adjuvant which would have to be distributed.
OK… What am I missing? H5N1 is a RNA virus….
could this be the magic bullet?
Monotreme – at 23:07 “I am hoping that a DNA vaccine is created that works in humans. If it does, this can easily be made in any standard molecular biology lab, of which there are many thousands scattered throughout the US.” Assuming they come up with an acceptable pandemic vaccine in a timely manner, and there are problems with power here and there, how can ‘they’ possibly co-ordinate production for 300 million Americans in a timely manner in ‘thousands of labs’ scattered about. I know its a different method, but they have a difficult enough time producing seasonal flu vaccines during times with no power/fuel disruptions, no significant worker absenteeism, and no civil unrest (if that happens). What about the other 5–6 billion humans elsewhere? (I’m depressing myself.)
Have people seen this conference, coming up in December in Memphis Tenn.?
https://www.euci.com/conferences/december-06/1206-pandemic-influenza.php
Co-organized by Memphis Light, Gas and Water and EUCI, Pandemic Influenza: Utility and Infrastructure Preparedness is going to be the “can’t miss” Pandemic Planning conference of 2006. If you attended an earlier pandemic conference you’ll still want to start 2007 with the information that will be disseminated at Pandemic Influenza: Maintaining Utility Operations and Business Continuity.
OVERVIEW: The moment when a natural occurrence, usually of low probability, becomes a disaster is based on the degree of preparedness for the specific event. We know that there will in fact be influenza pandemic such as we saw in 1918 and again in the middle of the twentieth century. The question is when and how infectious. Currently, the existing strains of H5N1 that are causing the most alarm have a long way to go regarding generations of mutation before they really pose a viable threat to humanity, especially in developed nations with sanitation and public health infrastructure. However, virus mutations are unpredictable and the influenza strain that ultimately leads to a pandemic may be closer to infectious stage than H5N1. The reason that utilities and all businesses need to have a pandemic preparedness plan is that pandemic flu could immobilize as much as 40 percent of the work force across all industry. This includes the water and power utility industry. Water is the backbone of our public health system and with an unsecured supply of infected water the virus will quickly spread. Our water supply can not be secured and treated without adequate electric power supply. Most, if not all, businesses require electricity for day to day business continuity. Without a pandemic influenza preparedness plan, utility companies will not be able to provide power to our public health or economic infrastructures.
Pandemic Influenza: Maintaining Utility Operations and Business Continuity will discuss in-depth what the issues are regarding human resources and utility business continuity, what the biggest barriers to success may be, perceived best practices for ameliorating the impact of a decreased workforce and lessons learned from previous drills and cases in which workforce was immobilized.
WHO SHOULD ATTEND:
Co-organized by Memphis Light, Gas and Water and EUCI, Pandemic Influenza: Utility and Infrastructure Preparedness is going to be the “can’t miss” Pandemic Planning conference of 2006. If you attended an earlier pandemic conference you’ll still want to start 2007 with the information that will be disseminated at Pandemic Influenza: Maintaining Utility Operations and Business Continuity.
FloridaGirl, Spirit in the Wind, and Mosaic, I’m going to start a thread on DNA vaccines later tonight.
Average Concerned Mom – at 13:23
Thanks for posting that. Hope the pandemic waits until after the conference.
Mosaic’s question is the core of the matter. And ALL of the pieces are essential to making things work. The vaccine plants need EVERYTHING to successfully manufacture. Discussing the Pandemic issue with a hospital maintenance manager, he mentioned that he sure hoped Home Depot would stay open if they were trying to quadruple up patients in rooms with support equipment - even if they could find equipment, he was now allowed a total stock of 5 6-outlet power strips (because of budget economies)for a 400 bed hospital, of which many hundreds would be required to add much of anything to the fairly busy outlets in existing rooms. Whose planning list would that be on? You can always just pop to the store to get some, right? Wrong.
Re: The conference in Memphis—good agenda and very knowledgeable speakers. The registration cost is $1395 (!) but you can get the proceedings for $295 + $50 shipping. That cost will likely make attendance difficult for the many community-based organizations and agencies that need to involved. Disappointing for the locals.
Fiddlerdave – at 15:43 He really should not worry about the extra powerer strips. There will be no power to run through them any way.
And where were their “quadruple” the health care and support staff, and supplies, going to come from, Fiddlerdave? (Ask him how the hospital’s fatalities are going to be managed. Have the local funeral directors and cemeteries been let in on things yet?)
Pournelle’s Iron Law of Bureaucracy. Yug. (About on par with MRSA ?)
They should tell the hopeful conference attendees to get staff and plants stocking up now…the “biggest barrier to success may be” talking and writing planning papers until the pandemic flies home.
Well, HIS point (and mine) is the idea that when your broader infrastucture is down, minor items can stop you, or really slow you down! And it’s so hard to plan for a situation where many different items may not be available. We stockpiled ventilators and fuel oil, but not extension cords. We have power backup for the vaccine plant, but there’s no hydrogen peroxide to disinfect the vats (the plant is in India!) Many preppers talk about realizing late something little they’ll need to survice (aluminum foil, salt). We can replace the power plant burners, but there’s no 1/4 inch nuts to replace the ones that break because the plant was off for 3 weeks (unusual situation). Just In Time has changed even little stockpiles! Katrina repairs were like doing a project 200 miles out in the country. Pandemic infrastucture breakdown repairs will be like doing a project on the moon!
Fiddlerdave – at 21:12
Just In Time has changed even little stockpiles! Katrina repairs were like doing a project 200 miles out in the country. Pandemic infrastucture breakdown repairs will be like doing a project on the moon!
That’s always been my argument.
Each one of us will either become a statistic, or a witness to one of the most sudden collapses in history.
Fiddlerdave at 21:12-That has to be one of our best quotes. I was going to get it on the “great quotes” site, but Bird Guano beat me to the punch.
And JWB has a good one at 8:57. Besides just plain surviving, I do want to “witness” it, history buff that I am. It will be like colonizing a New World. If fate gives you lemons, you might as well make lemonade out of it.
Here is an email I received in response to my inquiry to the DOE a few months ago:
Thank you for your email correspondence to Secretary Bodman dated August 24, 2006 regarding plans for safeguarding the electric grid in the event of a pandemic. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has done much work in this area since the federal government realizes the consequences that such a pandemic could have on the American public as well as the nation’s workforce and economy. DOE is working with DHS, HHS, and utility associations, such as EEI, NERC, NRECA, and APPA, to be better prepared in the event of such a pandemic. Mr. Jim Caverly, DHS, recently made a presentation at our Winter Fuels Conference in Washington, DC on October 10, 2006. Attached is his presentation. Note the presentation contains links to Pandemicflu.gov and avianflu.gov. Two web sites dedicated to this issue.
Hope this information is useful.
Regards, Alice
Alice Lippert Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability U.S. Dept. of Energy 202–586–9600 (O) 240–997–6348 © 202–586- 1472(F)
Pretty slides, but doesn`t really tell us anything does it ?
cactus – at 12:07
Ditto.
cactus – at 12:07
Mamabird – at 12:09
Not was I was hoping for by a long shot. Can we all agree that in the event of a severe pandemic we are well and truly screwed?
Well, they’ve done all that anyone could ever ask, the pretty slides have been prepared, suitable for presentation in front of Cabinet leve and Congressional committee members. Now that the hard stuff is finished, it should be easy to just execute on their lofty planning bullets.
Hillbilly Bill – at 12:17
“Can we all agree that in the event of a severe pandemic we are well and truly screwed?”
Not sure exactly what it is meant by “severe”. I know that a lot of folks have been concerned with an H5N1 pandemic with very high case fatality rates. I suspect that even if we have a 1918 Spanish Flu type pandemic, things may get pretty inky (ie, 2 million deaths). For that matter, if it is an H5N1 outbreak with high attack rates, but very, very low fatality rates, critical infrastructure entities are likely to have their hands full if substantial numbers of folks SIP for the duration of the pandemic wave(s).
It really is a simple formula:
JIT X H5N1 = TSHTF
JIT x pandemicX = WE R SKRUED
JIT x pandemicX = WE R SKRUED (squared)
people living in towns away from nature + trust in things = TSHTF
somewhat off topic, but maybe not-
It has long been a personal goal to assemble a team of people and the needed equipment to put together a limited manufacturing capability for almost everything, that is, the ability to manipulate metal, wood and plastics, as well as other simple processes with a view towards being able to supply simple 19th century industrial technology. I have the team and we are acquiring the equipment. For metal, my list is a lathe, a milling machine, a drill press, a simple foundry setup, and a blacksmithing shop. For wood, the list includes a sawmill, table saw, band saw, and a number of other tools.
That way, I should be able to make the tools and other things I need even if the grid goes down and the chinese aren’t shipping bolts anymore.
Find some current or ex-navy machinists to help. When my ship was at sea, our machinists could manufacture just about anything.
Oremus-
GMTA! Yes, one of my team members is an ex machinist’s mate from the nuclear sub program.
LMWatBullRun – at 09:28
Don’t forget welding.
stick and torch and forge, yes indeed. Don’t do MIG and TIG yet, but one of the team does.
LMWatBullRun, have you read the 1632 series of novels and short stories by Eric Flint and Dave Weber and others? They struggle to carry on after being transported to an earlier time (their whole West Virginia town shifts back to 1632 Germany). Their long-standing cohesiveness in a miners’ union has a lot to do with their success (as do their coal mine and power plant!) But the people still have to use their ingenuity to adapt. (I particularly enjoyed the teenagers and sewing machines story.)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assiti_Shards_series
Another inspirational series is by Jack Whyte, starting with The Skystone, in which retired Roman centurians adapt to the crumbling of the Roman empire by establishing an independent compound fortified against local marauders and the thuggish remnants of the former government. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Whyte
Having a cohesive group beforehand is a common element in these stories, as well as in Dies the Fire. I am hoping it’s possible to develop a sense of cooperation after the fact, in case there isn’t much time before TSHTF.
In 15th century Iceland, they weren’t even able to keep journals, let alone keep electricity grids operating.
Journal of Medieval History, Vol. 22, No, 3, pp, 263–284, 1996
Plague without rats: the case of fifteenth-century Iceland Gunnar Karlsson
Iceland was visited by two severe epidemics, in 1402–04 and in 1494–95. Both in popular tradition and by most scholars, these have been identified as being the same disease as caused the Black Death in Europe. In Icelandic they are usually called pldgur (sing. pldga), the first and the second, when we need to distinguish between them. As it has been generally agreed that Iceland was not colonized by rats until centuries later, alternative solutions have been sought for the plague epidemics.
In 1965, an Icelandic biologist, Om61fur Thorlacius, proposed in a radio lecture the theory of a different disease. About a decade later the physician and medical historian J6n Steffensen argued for a primary pneumonic plague. 9 A Norwegian physician, Per Oeding, has suggested that the plague in Iceland resulted from infection through the human flea, Pulex wrttans. Finally the present author and his fellow historian, Helgi Sk61i Kjartansson, have recently made the fifteenth-century epidemics in Iceland the object of a thorough study and argued for a higher mortality rate than most previous authors, estimating the death of some 50–60% of the population in the first epidemic and 30–50% in the second. On the nature and form of the disease we did not pretend to be qualified to pass a definite judgement. Nevertheless, judging by the pieces of evidence that historians can evaluate, nothing seemed more likely than J6n Steffensen’s theory of primary pneumonic plague. ~ J The present article can be seen as a defence of the late J6n Steffensen against Benedictow’s critique of his conclusions. At the same time it is a presentation of those conclusions of Kjartansson and myself which seem relevant to the general history of the plague, although with some additional material which has a bearing upon the argument. It would be tedious here to repeat all the arguments and reservations concerning our use of Icelandic sources, let alone all the references to sources and literature that only people who read Icelandic could use. On a number of points of that kind a sceptical reader must be referred to our original text. In order to substantiate my thesis of a severe epidemic without the presence of rats, I must prove two things that led up to it, firstly that the epidemics in Iceland really were something like the Black Death in Europe in their mortality rates, and secondly that there were no rats in Iceland at the time of the epidemics. I shall attempt to do so, when I have established the course taken by the two epidemics. Finally, I shall add a few words in support of the theory of primary pneumonic plague.
The course of the epidemics Unfortunately, the fifteenth century is the only century in the history of Iceland about which we have no extensive written narratives. The course of the first epidemic is mainly known from the so-called New Annal (N~ji ann6ll). ~2 It was probably written in the 1430s, in the vernacular like most Icelandic annals, but preserved only in a rather imperfect sixteenth-century manuscript. A few important pieces of evidence about the epidemic are to be found in a small fragment of an annal covering about thirteen years around 1400. The fragment is preserved in a seventeenth-century manuscript, but it contains details which must have been written down in the fifteenth century.
According to New Annal the plague arrived in a ship in 1402. It does not say where the ship landed, but the fragment adds the point, which fits well with our knowledge of the spread of the epidemic, that it came to the harbour of Hvalfj6r6ur in the south- western part of the country. 14 By Christmas the plague reached the Bishop’s See at Skfilholt, in the central South. Two documents containing vows of atonement in the hope of protection from approaching plague are preserved from the North, one written on Christmas Day 1402 in GrenjaOarstaOur in 19ingeyjars22sla, the other on 16 January 1403 in Munk@ver~i in Eyjafj6rOur. These documents record that the epidemic had reached Skagafj6r0ur in the central North before Christmas. 15 The following year, 1403, New Annal calls the year of great mortality and mentions by name some people who died, presumably from the plague, both in the far West (Ntipur in D~rafj6r6ur) and in the far East (EiOar in Flj6tsdalsh6ra6).
With respect, Clark, I’m not a northern barbarian. I tend more toward the Roman model. <grin> I may not know all there is to know about influenza, but I do know a lot of things that are useful, and my friends know more.
Jane, I have read Flint and company and enjoyed them. My wife reminds me of Julie; she hits golf balls. At 100 yards. I also liked Verne’s “mysterious Island”, as well as Heinlein’s young adult novels.
Wow! I’ve been quoted?! Other than in derision? My week has been made! Thank you! This issue, as I have thought about it has really come to the forefront of my concerns. I have been a journeyman Boilermaker, and spent years building and repairing parts of large coal and nuclear power plants and I have to say, thinking about dealing with those tasks in a post-pandemic world just dismays me. I have watched the three 100-car coal trains a day that arrive to feed one. The 3000 men on a project for years to build one. The minor mistakes even trained operators can make to blow the walls off of one. I imagine all the components of the infrastructure is to feed these monsters, and distribute the power. In “Lucifers Hammer”, there is a speech about what electrical power does for civilization (it makes it possible!) which really says it all! Of what makes our days so productive and EVERY other industry work. I have concluded there are any number of defense systems we could lose before we would be affected like the loss of power would, and am now convinced its design and maintenance be moved to a #1 defense and national priority to supplant the rickety “Tower of Babel” grid we have now. In whatever way that needs to be accomplished. Now!
LMWatBullRun – at 09:28 Don’t forget some solar-powered calculators with trigonmetric functions even for a low-level foundry and machinist’s shop. It will save a lot of time and pencils and paper. I remember paying $495 (a very good 2-week’s pay in those days) for a calculator with those functions, and being thrilled I could get even get this NEW AMAZING TECHNOLOGY and was AMAZED how fast I could get calculations done. plus a slide rule for just-in-case.
One Just-in-Case being an EMP bomb.
I know a guy that will be selling slide rules in a post-EMP world.
LMWatBullRun
I own a small manufacturing company. We manufacture farm equipment accessories, augers, and cotton harvesting equipment.
I have a mills, lathes, stick and wire welders, iorn workers, drill presses, threading machines, torches, CNC plasma torch, hydraulic presses, a knuckle press, verticle presses, shears, band saws, draw saws, etc. And I can tell you that we will not be able to function without power and a dependable supply chain.
All of these machines require power to operate, each and every one need some type of consumable to keep going.
The mill and lathe need cutting tips which must be replaced much more often than one would think. They need coolants and oil. The threaders need coolants, oil and dies. We sharpen our own dies, but can only do this if the powers up to operate the surface grinder.
The saws consume blades very regularly. The band saws cut much better, but the draw saw doesn’t use as many blades. Both require oil and coolants.
The wire welders go through contacts like a house afire: no contacts, no welder. The welding rod used in stick welders must be stored very carefully or it will asorb moisture and not be of any use.
Our newest piece of equipment, the CNC plasma torch need an assortment of consumables and air. Therefore you must have an air compressor with a dependable, steady pressure and a good supply chain for consumables. Power surges will wipe out our computerized arm.
Standard gas torches need gas: gases, oxygen, CO2 and map.
The forges that we use in production are gas fueled. No gas, no forge. About once a year we have to rebrick them. Again dependent on a supply chain.
We have an ancient trip hammer, but even it needs a power source. Years ago, when we first got the trip hammer everyone wanted to play with. Some of the men tried to work using coal to heat the forge. It’s not easy to get coal around here. The only place that I know of to get blacksmith supplies is Century Forge. No coal, no forge; not power, no trip hammer.
I don’t expect to be able to use this equipment for very long unless the grid stays up or we have good generators with good supply of fuel to power the generators. If we have a civilization busted, then I don’t expect to be able to utilize this equipment.
But, there are a few pieces of equipment that we could use without power: pipe bender and chain hoist. I’m sure there are other items, but I can’t think of them right now.
Fiddlerdave – at 00:43
I have concluded there are any number of defense systems we could lose before we would be affected like the loss of power would, and am now convinced its design and maintenance be moved to a #1 defense and national priority to supplant the rickety “Tower of Babel” grid we have now. In whatever way that needs to be accomplished. Now!
I agree completely. Now, how can we make this an issue that politicians and the MSM pay attention to?
I don’t think it is possible with the current political and business climate. The citizens here won’t feel like its a priority until they personally see what it is like without them, a very expensive lesson.
Fiddlerdave – at 16:01
In the 70′s the, there were a whole bunch of disaster movies. Maybe we need Hollywood to make a “good” disaster movie called “The Grid”. It wouldn’t necessarily have to be about a pandemic, but it would illustrate very graphically what would happen if our grid were to go down for an extended period of time. Truly more scary than any zombie movie. At the end of a zombie movie, you can always reassure yourself the central premise is biologically impossible. Collapse of the grid is all too plausible.
Monotreme – at 11:15
Now, how can we make this an issue that politicians and the MSM pay attention to?
It will take an *event* before the rickety power grid issue is brought to light. Clearly, it will take a bigger event than the 08–14–03 northeast blackout.
That last northeast blackout should have been 12–14-?? in the middle of a continent-wide, cyclonic blizzard. And to get action hundreds (or thousands) would have to die from freezing.
Maybe a repeat of the 1888 blizzard, (now that was a doozey!). It wiped out herds of cattle from Texas to Canada and moved east and paralyzed New York City.
Not necessarily a BIGGER event.
Just a more lasting one.
A point I haven’t seen raised here is the fact that utility sub stations have shifted to using circuit breakers with SF6 insulating gas. They must be kept heated or it will change from gaseous to liquid state, rendering the circuit breaker inoperable. Guess how they are kept warm? With electricity!!! If there is a complete blackout, particularily during a cold freeze, many circuit breakers will quickly become inoperable. The restoration time for the northeast blackout would have been significantly longer had it occurred in Janurary as opposed to August. I would also be concerned about steam power plants, which comprise 75% of all generation, incurring damage due to frozen pipes during an extended outage.
Jumping Jack Flash – at 20:19
Does Hydro have any of these problems?
I’ve also been wondering if it would make sense to have an alternative source of energy like wind or solar and a massive battery bank to store limited amounts of energy for use by electrical and water treatment plants. It seems to me that your backup energy source should not be dependent on the grid.
IF it rains (key word IF), hydro is the best resource. There is no supply chain for fuel delivery. Hydro resources are located in areas of significant geographic elevation relief. That leaves Florida and the plain states out of luck. Hydro comprises less than 10% of all generation, and it requires rain. Brazil, which relies almost entirely on hydro, was recently limited to less than 1/2 capacity because of a draught, resulting in large scale rotating blackouts.
Hydro plants generally have small black start generators so that they can start indepently of the power grid. Utlities with hydro resources typically rely on hydro plants to provide power to restart all the steam plants. Steam (coal and nuclear) plants generally don’t have the ability to start independently. Steam plants themselves require vast amounts of power. A nuclear plant typically consumes 50 megawatts of power and produces 1200 megawatts.
Hydro plants are much more resilient to system disturbances due to the mass per megawatt ratio compared to steam plants. Hydro has 12X as much mass per MW as steam. There were isolated pockets in NY and Canada that remained energized because of the Niagra and St Lawrence Hydro Power Projects.
Yes, substations do have large battery banks that are generally designed to keep power on for 8 hours at the substation. That should do OK for immediately restarting after a blackout. Key word immediately. An extended blackout is another story. Especially if it’s cold out.
Looks like us fluwikians have another compelling reason to prep-a grid meltdown coinciding with a once-in-a-century blizzard event. From what JJF relates above it could get pretty dicey.
And in addition to what JJF detailed you could add immobilization of utility workers due to extreme cold and drifts.
The Pacific Northwest is looking better and better.
“Monotreme – at 21:44 The Pacific Northwest is looking better and better. “
Home, sweet, home. You just have to be able to live with about 9 months of rain each year.
Actually, we enjoy a pretty mild climate in addition to all of the rain and hydro power. A long grey, cool, rainy season and a short warm, dry, sunny season. Not too many really cold days in the winter or too many really hot days in the summer.
Oh, yeah, forest fires too.
I’m thinking the preferred areas, in order, Southern Appalacian Mtns, Hoover Dam, Pacific Northwest, Niagara Falls, St Lawrence. Reason for this order is southern climate has longer growing season.
Monotreme-“The Pacific Northwest is looking better and better”
The Seattle region is due to have another tremendous quake and liquefying event immediately followed by a monstrous tsunami. The geological investigations of the last few years revealed destruction that makes the San Andreas Fault possibilities in southern California look like a tempest in a teapot.
Just like panflu these events in the Northwest have a recurring pattern. The last big one was in the 1700s I believe. And it is due.
As I have said before this country has been running an incredible string of luck. It will run out. And we had better be prepped, body and soul.
For what it is worth, the New York Times has been running a series the past 2 weeks on what’s wrong with our electrical grid.
“Power Play — Winners and Losers — Articles in this series will examine the decade-long effort to overhaul the nation’s electricity system.”
The first one is here: http://tinyurl.com/yy78vg
The second: http://tinyurl.com/y3lgsr
and there’s more to come….
Medical Maven – at 21:58
Always looking on the bright side aren’t you? ;-)
Plot for an O’ Henry story:
A. Prepper is convinced by Monotreme to move to the Pacific Northwest as the best place to be during a severe pandemic. The pandemic never occurs but Seattle is destroyed by a combination Tsunami/Volcano.
Monotreme at 22:15-Lucky Louie Strikes Out? : )
Average Concerned Mom – at 22:01
“For what it is worth, the New York Times has been running a series the past 2 weeks on what’s wrong with our electrical grid.”
Thanks ACM for the headsup on this news commentary. Very timely.
I realize we all have been discussing “the grid” and the potential for it going down, but the articles sited, while factually incorrect as to the financial numbers, are right on target as to the concern. Competition has caused considerable disruption in the integrity of our electrical system, but…
It’s the power plants, not so much the wire that carries the power to the homes. Focus on those plants and how the power must flow from one area to another. Prior to deregulation, integrated utilities could control those flows, now the market and the regional control organizations must attempt to watch the grid. So…
Follow those plants and how they’re dispatched, that’s the key to stability.
Wicked windy around here today, but at least our power is still up (knock on wood)
Jumping Jack Flash – at 20:56
Many cities originated on fall lines. Not only could the riverboats go no further (so it was a point of disembarking), hydro-mechanical power was quite useful.
Ok; only had a very temporary power outtage today, despite about 72mph wind gusts.
Jumping Jack Flash – at 20:19, I’m flabbergasted at how precariously things are arranged. The more I learn how things work, the more amazing it is that we’ve been as lucky as long as we have.
oremus. I think most if not all settlements originated near a grist mill. i maintain that once the smoke clears after the pandemic, civilization will be restarted near hydro resources. cities without hydro will be abandoned. completely.
Hydro and geothermal.
A lot of cities were also built on the latter.
tidal?
New “city triage” based on current hydro, wind, geothermal, or tidal electricity generation? Solar? - don’t most of these methods still have that whole “I Pencil” problem? (As far as spare parts, ect go?)
anonymous – at 19:21 - “tidal?”
Not completely sure what the question is, but if you are asking if human settlement patterns were influenced by the availability of tidal power, similar to hydropower, I would say ‘no’. The first tidal electrical power station was the Rance tidal power plant built over a period of 6 years from 1960 to 1966 at La Rance, France. It has 240MW installed capacity. Tidal basins were frequently a means to harvest various types of food sources, so that may be the answer you were looking for.
Location of early cities on rivers was based on 4 things-
-Easy transportation of food especially on rivers;
- more assured crops available in river valleys;
-availability of water power.
-ability of the river system to bring fresh water in and carry wastewater away.
It is interesting to look at what happened to Rome after the sack and destruction of the aqueducts, which many historians often pay sparse attention to. At one point, Rome’s population had dropped well below 50,000 people, because of the lack of water supply and food. Large population crashes are common in human history. The differences between past such events and today is that our technology gives us the ability to propogate deadly disease worldwide in the span of a few days, instead of taking months or years, and ensuring complete coverage of the entire globe.
Our technology also provides the means to cope with these threats, but the social and political structures we have developed do not appear to be up to this challenge, at least not yet.
The combination of rapid evolution in technology and little evolution in political organization results in an environment in which a flu virus does not have to evolve to as infectious a strain in order to become pandemic.
With regard to keeping the grid up, our present system of power distribution has not evolved during a period of pestilence, and is understandably not designed to meet that threat. Just as the coastal communities in the US were developed during a lull in the cycle of hurricanes, so the grid system developed before the advent of the swift spread of airplane borne diseases.
While it is well to continue to attempt to educate those involved as to the issues we see with keeping the grid up, the more potentially useful thing I see coming out of these discussions is the “planting of seeds”; if there is a grid collapse and a partial or total collapse of civilization, the dissemination of knowledge regarding this threat, and how we failed to meet it will be very useful for future generations.
Large parts of Europe are presently experiencing a blackout.
I’ld expect some blackout stricken Fluwikians to soon came back with I’m glad I was prepped but….
I’ve posted on other threads about this issue. When “IT” happens (and it will), plan on the grid going down. Plan on it. Yes, you can be a Daniel Boone, Davy Crockett or Jim Bridger type - roughing in the woods sitting around a campfire for heat - but is that what you want? Short answer: Have a back up source of power available.
Could future recovery use tidal or micro-hydro, or wind, or solar, if places that could use such electric sources started changing now? There are even solar streetlights…
(Yes, but tptb won’t see the need to do, or will not want to justify it to the public; nevermind. So then; how are the bodies going to be managed? If we’re lucky, the public may eventually see the need to prepare for that before they learn the hard way that the “plans” were only the local limited-disaster plans with “Pandemic” pasted in…)
lmw
It generall takes an *event* to bring about change. Airport security would not be at the level it is if not for 911. Electric reliability standards would be at a lesser level if not for the Northeast 08–14–06 blackout. Hurricanes are taken much more seriously because of Katrina. At a personal level, many of us tend to push our luck with speeding until getting a ticket or two or even a wreck.
But until the *event* occurs, it is human nature to not take a threat seriously, and to not design the physical infrastructure or political and social systyems to withstand that threat.
(writhing around because it is not my nature to not design against future impacts, and people like me and you haven’t been in charge of the world, and don’t ever look to be)
LMWatBullRun – at 09:00
It is interesting to look at what happened to Rome after the sack and destruction of the aqueducts, which many historians often pay sparse attention to.
What a profound example of a “just-in-time” critical infrastructure delivery system weakness.
Jumping Jack Flash – at 09:44
But until the *event* occurs, it is human nature to not take a threat seriously, and to not design the physical infrastructure or political and social systyems to withstand that threat.
Oh yeah - truer words were never said.
JJF-
I agree that many are shortsighted. At present. THis is largely due to the benefits of large scale industrialized society, which so far has increased the “return period” of disasters having a local impact. It has also created another niche which H5N1 appears to be headed to exploit.
There is hope, however.
“Fools may learn from their mistakes. I prefer to learn from the mistakes of others.” -Otto von Bismark
If we can learn from the mistakes that others have made in the past, and make changes, we have a chance. The liklihood of this happening is low, which is why I spend most of my effort in planning for a severe change in my lifestyle, and also in planning to explain what happened to my shocked and angry neighbors. There are some very good things to be conserved, too, and that is also a task worth doing.
Pralines and cream, for example….. Mint juleps……
As if to add an underscore to the discussion:
Now imagine this scenario with 40–50% of the workers out sick or dead.
(11–05) 05:06 PST BERLIN, Germany (AP) —
A power shortage in Germany triggered a cascade of blackouts across Europe, a German electricity said Sunday, halting trains, trapping people in elevators and plunging millions of homes into darkness.
Germany and France were badly hit by the cuts late Saturday. Austria, Belgium, Italy and Spain were also affected, though supplies to most regions were quickly restored. No injuries were reported.
A private Germany company, E.On AG, said the problems began in northwestern Germany, where its network became overloaded, possibly because it shut down a high-voltage transmission line over the Ems River to let a ship pass safely.
E.On said it had shut down transmission lines in the past without causing problems, and that it was still trying to discover what happened this time.
Well that was me forgetting to change the handle as usual.
Just for a talking point: Europe blackout leaves millions in dark
“ German electric company said Sunday a high-voltage transmission line it shut down over a river to let a ship pass could have caused the chain-reaction power outages that left about 10 million people in the dark across Europe.
The blackouts Saturday night briefly halted trains in Germany and trapped dozens of people in elevators in France and Italy. Austria, Belgium and Spain were also affected, though supplies to most regions were quickly restored. No injuries were reported.
The outages raised fresh questions about the reliability of Europe’s interconnected power grids and drew an immediate call for stronger coordination.”
For those interested, there is a http://www.dhs.gov/xinfoshare/programs/editorial_0542.shtm? available online. Note that it is open source, so basically all the serious events don’t get reported here, though it can open one eyes to the sorts of things that happen all the time.
Will – at 14:05
Thanks,
However,that link went to a password protected FW page. here is the tinyurl for it: http://tinyurl.com/td29b
I’ve been meaning to post this for a while…
Back on October 11, Minnesota held a pandemic summit focused on business continuity. The second speaker was Cindi Lesher, president and CEO of Northern States Power. Here is a link to the Minnesota Public Radio page which has the audio:
http://minnesota.publicradio.org/events/2006/10/pandemic/
I found Ms. Lesher to be informed and her remarks interesting. I’ve been meaning to prepare a summary, but I haven’t found the time. Here are some things that stuck in my mind:
NSP is anticipating that there will be no vaccine, no magic cure that will make everything ok. (This was in response to the governor’s chief of staff, who had talked a bit about getting the vaccine to everyone as soon as possible after the pandemic starts. He seemed to be under the delusion there was a vaccine ready to go).
NSP has made plans for key people and their families to shelter at their place of work.
Although NSP is a private corporation, they feel that in this situation their responsibility would be more like a government agency. It would go beyond the normal company-customer relationship.
Also, the opening remarks by the governor’s chief of staff were so uninformed that it was hard to stop laughing in derision, crying in fear and feeling totally sick. I can’t go through that again, even on fast forward. Get this - he thinks the pandemic will arrive in birds from the north!
(then save a shovel for that chief of staff and tell him he’s on Mortuary Reserve Corps duty for the pandemic year)
How are key people and their families going to feel about abandoning their homes for months and staying onsite?? Where is there room to prep all the things families would need? and how would they know they hadn’t brought pandemic in with them?)(If they hadn’t, how will they all get along together for stressful months?)
:-/