From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Alternatives to Full Scale School Closures

26 October 2006

Average Concerned Mom – at 14:24

I’ve thought these ideas for a while but didn’t post, because I believe the best choice for children’s health (and to control spread of the flu) would be to close schools early, especially elementary schools and younger, as older children can usually be left alone at home if need be.

But I’m reading that there are some circle/schools of thought that say closing schools will create severe economic hardship and difficulty maintaining critical infrastructure ares (es. utilities, food supply production/distribution/etc.) which if left to fail, will cause more hardship and even death. So I am presenting my ideas for consideration!

I’d rather see schools close early in a pandemic (a la Seattle’s plan) and would choose to remove my own children from school early, but I understand that is not an option for everyone. So what interim measures could be put in effect, for that period of time between the beginning of a pandemic and the absolute certainty that schools must be closed (if only because no one is willing to come in to work anymore? This may be a week or two, up to a month, depending on how fast the disease is spreading into the school district and what other measures are being taken.

My ideas (thinking of elementary school)in random order:

“Bottom Line’‘’: It is not practical to keep young children 3 feet away from each other, nor possible in crowded classrooms. However, we can try to prevent mingling as much as possible. All children arriving on one bus will stay in one class — therefore if infection starts in one apartment complex, it MIGHT be lmiited in spread to the kids on that one bus, and in that one classroom (and that one teacher) and NOT to the rest of the school. (I’m assuming the school would at that point be closed, but of course that depends.)

Average Concerned Mom – at 14:40

two more things — on the bus — hand washing as they get on and off; and masks if possible, would be good ideas. Wouldn’t work for the littlest kids, probably. Bus driver would wear a mask, and have window open….

Sniffles – at 14:43

Average Concerned Mom – at 14:24 A very well thought out plan with one major fatal flaw: staff and children will have to go to the bathroom. Even if the children were brought by their parents to the school (family car and not a bus), the teachers showed up to work, teachers and students stayed in one room and ate in that room, all came in one at a time to their rooms through the hallways so they would not congregate, and then left their homeroom to immediately go into their family car (all of this would be difficult, if not impossible, to do), the issue of them going to the bathroom and sharing germs there would be a problem. One infected classroom would be able to infect the others via use of the bathroom. Other potential problems would be lack of supplies (soap, toilet paper, food) and utility issues (heat, lights, water).

Average Concerned Mom – at 14:48

bathroom — ack — you are right!

in the elementary classrooms I taught in, each classroom had its own bathroom, so not an issue.

But many schools have “gang” bathrooms (sorry, I know it is a bad term). Good point.

I wouldn’t expect this interim plan to last long enough to have problems with supply shortages, and obviously if there are no utilities, there would be no school!

libbyalex – at 14:55

The bathroom is the worst! The preschool/kindergarten wing of my son’s school is awful in terms of bathrooms (though probably typical). The bathrooms don’t stay clean very long, there is one large and very deep sink that operates with a foot pedal (not a bad idea, that) and no soap. The only thing that would help is this:

A child has to go to the bathroom.

There is an adult present to escort child.

Child and adult wear masks and gloves (or if no gloves, then uses handsanitizer upon entering and leaving the bathroom). One child at a time might cut down on the germ issue. Especially if toilet seat or other touchable items were wiped down w/ a lysol wipe or better yet, sprayed. However, this requires large quantities of cleaning products and hand sanitizer. Not to mention, an extra adult.

Poke holes in this plan please.

Sniffles – at 14:58

In our school district (and in most that I have seen in my state for both elementary and upper level schools), bathrooms are not in classrooms - they are in the hallways and are shared by everyone in the building. I do not know how these could be effectively disinfected after each user so that viruses would not spread from person to person.

Another issue of concern would be contamination of common door knobs/handles. In the spring/fall, these doors could be kept open, but in the winter (especially in the northern states) these doors would need to be kept closed and each child/teacher would be opening them to come into or leave the building.

As far as the utilities, I agree with you - schools will need to chose if utilities are out. I also do not know if schools work on JIT supply storage for items like all other businesses do - food, toilet paper and soap being the first ones that came to mind. If there are pandemic flu cases in the country and people make runs on grocery stores, etc. I didn’t know if these supplies would still be available to the schools.

Ruth – at 15:00

I am a substitute teacher. During the winter months it is hard for our district to find subs for the classroom because: There are alot more sick teachers, more of the teacher’s own kids are sick, the substitute’s kids are sick, or the substitute is sick..Remember, during a pandemic, all the other viruses continue to circulate too. If we had 30% of the teachers out, the school would probably have to close. Why would I go into the germ factory if I didn’t have to. I would probably stay home.

Oremus – at 15:05

Close the schools. They make the best overflow/triage centers during a pandemic (now if they can staff them with volunteers is another question).

Most have cafeterias to feed the volunteers and patients and showers for any volunteers that decide to live on site. Stack the desks outside and fill the rooms and gym with cots.

libbyalex – at 15:13

One other thing about schools: It’s really, really hard to get kids to comply with what we’ve suggested above. The young ones don’t understand. And then from 1st grade on up, kids sometimes think it’s funny to do the exact opposite of what is safe. (OK, often.) I can just see it now — some kid purposely sneezing or coughing on some other poor kid. (Or on the teacher or bus driver.) How would we get the kids to take this seriously?

InKyat 15:22

I don’t believe that keeping schools open is anything other than a death sentence for children, their families, and staff.

Sniffles – at 15:24

libbyalex – at 15:13 Even much older children/teens will not take this seriously until people they know start to get ill or die. Kids think they are invulnerable - nothing bad will happen to them and will be more likely to do risky things. (Sometimes, adults have this frame of mind too……..)

Ruth – at 15:36

I think all parents with school age children should have a back up plan if and when the schools close. It’s as important as prepping. Most parents need to go to work because they need the income, and we need to keep our services running. If the parents are healthy, they need to go to work. The parents are our first responders, our utility repair people, our truck drivers, our medical personal, sanitation people, etc. all vital services in our communities. Of course, less than 5% of the people are taking this seriously, so we are all in real trouble.

Mountain Man – at 15:41

You guys have posted some very well thought out ideas.It seems that if the pandemic starts this flu season and the disease is a highly virilent one with a high mortality rate then the schools and colleges will need to close before students and staff start fallig ill.It is hard to see how any public gathering could be safe after the infection is in the midst of the people as a whole. It seems the only safe thing to do is a self quarantine immediately upon hearing that the infection is in our country….or in our state.To be successful food ,water,meds,all manner of supplies must be accumulated now!!!The “on demand inventory system” will not effectively operate in a serious pandemic.There will be almost nothing to purchase in any grocery store once it starts. Since most Americans live in cities this plan will be exceptionally hard to follow.But I see no other alternative. What do youall think???

Bronco Bill – at 15:42

Where I am, at this time, it’s a moot point. TPTB have just recently stated (this past Monday) that there is no way they’re going to close public schools. Period. End of story. InKy - at 15;22 --- I absolutely, completely agree with you 100%!!

Sniffles – at 15:43

Ruth – at 15:36 The only problem with daycare backups is that these childcare providers may not want to take these children into their homes if their parents are going out into the community and potentially contaminating themselves. This would put the childcare providers and their families at risk. I have talked with a couple of people (one who did childcare in her home and another who worked at a daycare) and both would stop doing this line of work - they stated it would put them and their families at high risk and they do not make enough money to compensate them for that risk. I think the whole situation will be a big problem.

I also mentioned on another thread awhile back that our state Department of Public Instruction has not even addressed any of these issues and is thinking about looking at it sometime in late November. It is not seen as an important issue to them. Without the state working on these issues, the individual school districts are not addressing them either because “if it was really important, the state would be working on them to give us some guidance”. It is frustrating…..

Bird Guano – at 15:46

Sorry, but not even REMOTELY workable.

I’m not even going to verify a CFR before I pull my kids out of school and implement home schooling.

First sign of sustained H2H2H They are gone.

Schools are huge petri dishes.

History Lover – at 16:01

I agree that schools should close as soon as possible. My son is in a self-contained classroom where the only people touching him are teachers and paraprofessionals, and he still gets every virus that hits the school. Even adults have a hard time avoiding contact with germs.

I’ve already told my son’s school principal that as soon as there is notice of a pandemic, I’m taking my son out of school regardless of whether or not it has reached the U.S. Unfortunately for many parents who work, especially single parents or first responders, this may not be an option. Of course many of them may find that their workplace has closed so they may have no choice but to remain at home.

I also agree with you, Ruth, that first responders will be vital in a pandemic, and we can only hope that they will be able to perform their duties. So what would be some of the alternatives for parents who are needed for critical services? As Oremus suggested, could the schools be used for some sort of triage/shelter for first responders? Would other families accept responsibility for the children of these emergency workers while they are fulfilling their duties?

In other words, how can we keep all our children safe? That is probably the most pertinent issue here. Has anyone seen a plan for that?

LMWatBullRunat 16:18

Regardless of what TPTB decide, any child for which I am responsible is out of school at even the suggestion of a pandemic. Of all the things I have ever heard, this insistence on putting our children in harm’s way for political correctness’ sake and for political expediency makes my blood boil.

I’d rather take a couple weeks worth of unpaid time off, or even start looking for another job, before I’d risk my child’s life. I’d like to ask those pusillanimous pissants who made the decision not to close the schools if they’d keep their children in school if they thought that there was a 1 in 50 chance that their kid would be shot dead within a year?

Somebody in that jursidiction ought to write a really pointed letter to the editor pointing out the idiocy inherent in such a policy. And then get a rope.

Annoyed Max- Not mad yet – at 16:21

The whole idea of keeping the schools open is so retarded I don’t have the words. Here is why I am frustrated. I used to work for GSK and we used this cancer causing wicked toxic chemical in the DNA labs. Now the people that work with this chemical know its danger and are highly trained, not to mention they are wearing gloves all the time. Someone came up with the bright idea to test the doorknobs for contamination and guess what EVERY door in the whole building had it on there. Now replace that with flu virus. And you think kids are going to stay sanitary and sterile, wow I’m just glad I don’t have kids.

Average Concerned Mom – at 16:31

No plan will be perfect, but I think mitigation is important.

I agree that schools should be closed at the start of a pandemic or before. Yay! Great idea!!! (Is it happening in your town??? Not in mine!)

And I agree that kids should be pulled out of school, if their schools aren’t closed, by their concerned and loving parents, which is what I’m telling all my friends and family. Yes, another fabulous idea! Do it early and have a plan for it, especially if you have 2 parents with essential jobs, and you don’t see your employers making plans for you to SIP there with the kiddos. Or if you need money on a day to day basis. Be sure you have good backup care for those kids, in such a case, I’m sure everyone on the Flu Wiki does already.

But — I am asking people to look at the schools that do not close. Because right now, that’s the plan in a lot of areas. If that can’t be changed — what CAN be changed?

Small things? Big things? For even 2 weeks? No, nothing will be pefect. (Ask the health care workers if the plans for their hospitals will work and prevent infection.)

Plan for SOMETHING for schools. Along the lines of plans for hospitals even though it is obvious after 2 weeks they will be worthless.

Here’s why I think such planning is important.

They would be much more likely (in my opinion) to not close schools outright, but to implement “interim measures” — inform parents of their optins, let parents decide what they feel is best — and provide care for at least a few weeks until the situation becomes impossible to ignore (or the CFR does not prove to be very high). Even notifying parents of “interim measures” would have the effect of reducing the numbers of students in school by a certain percentage which in itself ought to reduce infection rate (or so I believe.) This is a mitigation in and of itself.

Bird Guano and everyone else — I am not talking about YOUR children. You obviously have other options for care for them. Me, too. Yay, us! But what about everyone else in the country — especially the kids of poor, single moms and dads who don’t speak English?

If authorities are willing to close the schools and close them super early, YAY!!!!!

But what if they aren’t? Are they going to have business as usual? Absolutely noting different in the schools until 10%, 20%, 30% to 40% of the school is sick?

My measures wouldn’t solve any problem permanently but I believe they would mitigate, and sometimes, that’s the best we can hope for. Well, we can hope for perfect, but we can only PLAN to mitigate.

Bird Guano – at 16:36

Average Concerned Mom – at 16:31 No plan will be perfect, but I think mitigation is important.


The ONLY viable mitigation method for a pandemic flu virus with a substantial case fatality rate is Protective Sequestration.

NOTHING ELSE is going to cut it.

You only have to screw up ONCE and you and/or your kids are DEAD.

Hope is not a plan.

Bird Guano – at 16:37

BTW I think the layoff fallout from a major pandemic is going to render the single-parent-caring-for-child point mute.

They won’t have jobs to worry about going to.

History Lover – at 16:55

Average Concerned Mom - I applaud your compassion and wish I had more answers for you. As you said, there are those such as you and I who have the option and the luxury of keeping our children out of harm’s way. Others will lack the resources and knowledge to adequately prepare for a pandemic or to protect their families and children. I guess all we can do is to keep trying to spread the word to others before something happens. And thanks for mentioning the non-English speaking parents. I live in an area where non-English speakers are a sizable portion of the population, and they are less likely to receive vital news. That is why I am working with my son’s principal and hope that it has some effect.

Ruth – at 16:58

They will have to close the schools, no choice if they don’t have staff. Remember, 30% of the staff will be sick. (I guess we will also have 30% of the kids out too, so we could combine classrooms.) However, schools get state funding for attendance, when it drops below a certain amount, they can’t afford to keep them open. Who is going to run the schools? I suppose we could put all the kids in a room and show a movie, but that’s not really a good idea. Trying to make up the work of all those sick kids would be another large hassle. Every kid missing different lessons. Just random thoughts, sorry….

LMWatBullRunat 17:11

ACM-

I am sorry to be blunt, but I think I must.

The only alternative to closing the schools early is for TPTB to stock up on body bags. Lots and lots of them. Small ones.

DennisCat 17:19

I doubt there will be fuel for the buses, power for the school and so on. My guess is that fuel will be rationed and used only for essential services. Using limited fuels and supplies to transport possibly asymptomatic children to spread it to the healthy ones is not a good plan. After all you could not test all the kids every day before they enter the school. One asymptomatic child and they would all be doomed. At what CFR would a loving parent send their child to a viral mixing room- 1% chance of death, 2%, 67%….. No I will keep my child (an exchange student) home and limit contact with others as much as possible, at least until a vaccine is available and shown to be effective.

Average Concerned Mom – at 17:45

Ruth — I am talking about early — before 30% of the school is sick. No, I am not assuming that 30% of the staff is sick yet. No children are sick yet, well, not with suspected pandemic flu.

When you first hear that someone somewhere perhaps in your country, is ill with pandemic flu. Someone was on a plane. Now suspicious cases are coming down all over the country. In Chicago, in DC, In Tampa Bay. Is it regular flu? Pandemic flu? Hmmmmm… not sure yet. Might take a week or two to be sure….

At that point, most major school districts are not yet planning to close the schools. Maybe with a few years time to plan, they might come to that decision — but from what I’ve been reading on other threads, there is serious opposition to that idea, and perhaps even rightly so, depending on how severe the CFR is, or at least is believed to be.

Many schools districts, if they even have a plan, say we will close when some %age of our kids are sick with suspected pandemic flu. (Like they will be able to know that.)

LMWatson — to be equally frank, I believe that many children — especially the poorest in my area — will be exposed, and possibly die, whether schools are closed or not. If you don’t send them to school, they will be exposed to the virus some other way. Their parents do not have the ability to SIP for a significantly important period of time anyhow; and they tend to have the most critical jobs; their young children will have to be cared for by someone, and this in itself will be a significant source of spread of infection. Even with prior notice, the parents won’t be able to have enough food, and they live in cities and apartment houses, and will have difficulties of course if we lose utilities. And so on.

As to body bags — any parents who have a choice will remove their child from school; if they are given notice in time to do so. With my plan, it would be EASIER for authorities to close schools — so the notice should be given SOONER (to those who aren’t alert and in tune like us on the Flu Wiki). I am concerned that schools and governments will be unwilling to make the call early enough to make a difference.

IF I assume that this will not change, what CAN BE CHANGED? Can we change how schools operate from that point in time when SOME parents will say, I want my kids home with me no matter what, to protect the kids who are going to school? Because until the schools close, they will go to school. I am so glad that people are being blunt, but I think everyone WON’T be closing the schools, regardless of what you say here on the Wiki. Assuming they won’t close the schools, is there not a point in trying to at least mitigate the consequences? I think yes.

I still say:

BEST CHOICE — close schools early (whatever that means. If it means when the first case of confirmed pandemic flu is in the country, it could mean school is out for ---- 18 months, or more right? )

IF YOU WON’T DO THAT for political/economic reasons:

For God’s sake at least have a plan! And let parents know what that plan is!

BAD PLAN: “flu as usual” We will stay open because the school environment is important. Ooops… 30% of our staff is out and 50% of our kids let’s regroup the kids around to cover bases — Oooops, some kids are DYING. A few teachers dead too — uh oh — YIKES — let’s close, who knew this would happen? — out for 6 weeks at least.

MY IDEA OF A BETTER PLAN:

If schools would all organize and agree that there is a good plan for closing early and informing parents so they have a chance to arrange good back-up child care — I’m all for that! I am just not hopeful that that is going to happen.

Blue – at 19:17

There is no alternative to closing schools, apart from the parents just taking their kids home without permission.

The parents need a note-ha!

If enough parents just take their kids home.the schoold will have to shut, won’t they?

All we need is for the general public to overwhelmingly take their children home at the confirmation of a human to human form of H5N1 and this wish will be granted. The Internet would be the best way of ensuring that this does in fact happpen.

THE POWER OF THE INTERNET!! It must be used to effect desired change, should it not?

Are we all just going to die because our kids caught it from school because we are being told that kids must go to school during a pandemic?-BOLLOCKS TO THAT, I SAY!

Blue – at 19:27

Should the government be made aware that most parents will be taking their kids home from school when the time comes?

Bird Guano – at 20:09

The government is already aware in the pandemic model assumptions.

The school districts are the ones stuck in the 50′s mode of thinking. Business as usual. Save the ADA money.

Urdar-Norway – at 20:48

Average coenserned: you are absolutly right. we have to realise the situation many families are in.

with a strickt hand hygien, and mandatory usage of clothmasks that is washable it should be posible to lover the damage. If no one is able to cough out those visues into the air, the airborne infections will be lovered, the rest is aboust washing hands and everything else, all the time.. And hand desinfectants are not needed (but surly helps. Hot water, soap in 20 secunds is adekvate. The problem with these dsicusions is that people dont acsept the facts that it will be losses. A 100% safe situation is imposible. Dont stop any plan that is not bullet proof.

But people have to be informed, and they should be able to choose for them self as you say. Many poor work in services like cafes etc, I would like to see all public gatherings closed, that means no job, you can take care of children at home. BUT the state has to give people the money needed, or put a one year freeze on any depht and bills.

Bronco Bill – at 21:11
On the fence and leaning – at 22:26

If they close, they will have to be closed for a long time. Depending on how things, they may not open again. That could be the biggest tragedy of a pandemic because of the ripple down effect it could have on future generations.

27 October 2006

Olymom – at 01:30

I’m working on getting our neighborhood thinking about two weeks preps (not enough, I know, but it’s a start). The schools will have to close — and people will adjust — we had a back hoe cut a power line at 9 a.m and the decision was immediately handed down that school was closed. Parents were called, kids were picked up. By the end of the day all the kids were gone and the message was check the school website to see if there would be school the next day. People coped. It wasn’t pretty, but we don’t have working toilets without power to the water system and that was that.

A lot of people who THINK they have to work will find themselves at home with their offspring. Probably the biggest hammer will be the teachers unions. There is NO WAY schools will be open if teaching is the equivalent of a death sentance. People can shed a virus 3 days before they show symptoms — that’s just too much of a window to try and figure out if Susie is healthy enough to be in class or not.

janetn – at 02:17

Bronco Bill Where are you? We should all be warned not to move to your neighborhood. But of coursse your is not the only school board that is moronic.

First off no way your going to stop the flu from spreading in any group of kids unless you drug them into unconciousnes. Essential workers are not going to send their kids off to a germ factory aka school and risk the death of their child so they can go to work. Simple choice, child or job. What would you choose? Do you think a essential worker is going to risk his/her child because society has deemed them indespenable. I dont think so. Even people who are in dire straights financially are not going to sacrifice their kids by sending them to school. Ive talked to parents who have not prepared with so much as a can of soup, but ask them if they will keep their kids in school during a panedmic and you will hear a resounding no way.

TPTB may choose to keep schools open to encourage people to work, so that the blessed economy doesnt suffer needlessly. Quess what they are in complete denial the economy is screwed no matter what. List just the non essential businesses that will go under and that in and of itself is enough of a hit to the economy to ring in a depression.

anonymous – at 02:36
 Does anyone know anyone that is prepared to leave their kids in school?

 What will happen to the people that have kids but are essential workers?
anonymous – at 02:38
 What is going to happen with Universities? 

 Ideally people wouldn’t be congregating there either!
lugon – at 04:39

Average Concerned Mom – at 17:45

I’m glad this thread was started. The issue came up at the very beginning of fluwikie threads - I’m not spending time to look that far back :)

I think it’s not a “yes/no” decision, but a “design” process. If we do it now we can be part of the design process. If not, it will design itself and the results will probably be worse. That’s why we’re here.

So, what do we do to design anything - anything from a new chair to a new anything? We look at aims, factors, who is involved and their points of view, alternatives, concepts … We draft plans, mix things, start again … We take our time. I’d love to have 8 of us in a room with a full available afternoon (you may want to try - if so, please write to me - lugon at singtomeohmuse dot com). Not having that, let’s do it here in the open, explicitly and s-l-o-w-l-y. If you hate it, just skip this enty and go for high-gear emotions. But as that (high-gear emotions) we will have later anyway, I’d go for the cool and slow at this stage.

Be warned: this design process may get us nowhere. But some perceptions, ideas or concepts may be useful later. It looks like we have at least half an hour before the next pandemic, right? Maybe even a week or two. And this could save lives, so I would like to at least give it a try.


Aims (in no particular order yet):

Factors (as many as we can, and again in no particular order yet):

Alternatives:

Concepts:


ACM - thanks so much for starting this. Moms rule!

lugon – at 05:11

It looks like what we’re doing here is historically relevant. See this other thread.

We’re already ahead of the curve in some aspects. The whole world is a hive mind.

Average Concerned Mom – at 07:35

lugon — I am so incredible frustrated with this thread, I just want to chuck my whole computer out the window.

I think the ideas I stared with are valuable and worth considering, tweaking, altering — in any situation during an infectious deadly pandemic in which we have to somehow care for young children but can’t quite manage the “total protective sequestration” thingy, which I don’t think we can — not for many.

Even if you take a bunch of kids of essential workers and THINK you have them in protective sequestration — you should still use the concept of keeping small groups from mingling with other groups, in CASE something happens and you accidentally let someone get exposed.

I am so frustrated with people on this list at times — it seems unless you propose “Death Sentence! It’s a Death Sentence! Stay at home everyone for 24 months and do it right NOOOOOOOOOOOW” (And don’t forget you will have absolutely no gas, no food, no nothing, you’re doomed I tell you!”) you get absolutely no support for even THINKING of alternatives.

crfullmoon – at 07:54

(Mountain Man – at 15:41 I agree,)

Getting people who think their jobs depend on not doing as we say to change their minds -fuggeddaboudit-

Since we have the internet, phones, handout flyers, access to (some) official plans, ect, keep getting the word out to families any way you can. Some of the non-english speaking parents, their kids can translate.

ACM, and if you were to stand up and say, “Death Sentence! It’s a Death Sentence! Stay at home everyone for 24 months and do it right NOOOOOOOOOOOW” (And don’t forget you will have absolutely no gas, no food, no nothing, you’re doomed I tell you!)” you get absolutely no support for even THINKING of alternatives - because you must be insane; the media and the politicians, and our officials, and our school district wouldn’t be going around as if everything was normal and not mentioning this if it were true!

Ruth – at 07:59

The problem is that this is no good solution. People have to and will go to work. Kids will get sick. I believe many parents will keep their kids home, but many will want to send them. If kids are beginning to get really sick at school, or horror, dying at school, the schools will close. No choice. People in the U.S. will not sit home for weeks on end. They just won’t. It will be an individual decision. I can stay home, my husband can’t. Without too much detail, his “business” must stay open. People will get sick and recover and go back to work, while the next group gets sick. Most people won’t die. We have to remember that. (I know it’s hard when it’s someone close to us.) Again this is basically a loose, loose situation, answers, many good suggestions and thoughts……

crfullmoon – at 07:59

Oh- and that’s where having something printed out to hand them may help;

the official guidelines on closing the schools because the panflu patients will be cared for in them,

what the Medical Reserve Corps guidelines say,

the government assumptions of how long pandemics last, just about any plans Assumptions are worse than what the public has heard.

Sometime just seeing the Red Cross has a home care for pandemic flu flyer gets them to look into it themselves later, instead of choosing to believe the authorities and not even go check the websites some kook hands them, (that would have given them scary news they weren’t ready to hear).

Average Concerned Mom – at 08:21

so crfullmoon — if it is impossible to get people to think about closing schools (and I know they are NOT thinking about it in my town) — what do you do if you care about the kids who will be going there?

Here’s my plan: attend a town meeting where they announce “We will keep schools open as usual”. I ask “What infection control procedures will you have in place to keep kids safe?” They say, “Hand washing and kids will be told to cover their sneeze please — we have flyers.”

I say “Death Sentence, Death Sentence to all Kids!!!!”

They ignore me and send me on my merry way.

OR (alternative here) I say — what about THESE infection control measures? COuld you do THESE? Have kids eat in classrooms? Cut out regrouping for math/reading instruction? Designate one bathroom per classroom? Other measures more extreme than handwashing hygiene but less extreme than closing the schools?

I think they’d be more likely to listen and feel this was something they could consider.

Would the unions go for this? No. But if the unions are so strong, they’ll ge tthe schools closed anyhow. I’m talking about places where the schools AREN’T going to close, at least not until everyone is infected. I do believe the plans in at least some ares are — the schools will not close — not until everyone is sick and they have to. I want to get people in THOSE schools thinking about this.

History Lover – at 08:38

ACM - Start e-mailing the news threads and this particular thread to every school official you can. I’ve been doing this and it has more effect sometimes than trying to convince people there’s a problem. I particularly look for news stories where an agency or official states that a pandemic is going to happen sometime in the future and that it will result in a high fatality rate. And the schools should have been told by now that it is more than a possibility. I’ve heard from more than one employee at my son’s school that the latest word from administrators is “not if, but when.”

lugon – at 08:43

ACM,

A great rant! LOL

You seem to feel cooperative thinkers in “death-sentence” mode are not helpful at this stage. I quite agree!

I think we need to remind ourselves of a few very simple things:

Do I freak out at times? You bet. But I guess readers on this forum are fortunate: when I freak out I cannot even type because I shake so badly! (Kidding.)

So I understand your frustration. But each boat owner needs to hold on to their own rudder, and even tie ourselves to it in case we fall asleep. Such control is not everything, but I believe it’s an important part of what we have.

As I suggested above, we need only a small group (maybe 8 people or less) to produce a few ideas. That will possibly help a bit.

There’s many of us, no?

Thanks for setting up this thread!!!

treyfish – at 09:00

my kid is home for a couple of days for defending himself.when i went to pick him up,i had a long talk with the gc and an assistant principal.they were basically cluless but concerned.mentioned about some plans.the gc knew more than i thought.she is the one that got the note i sent a few weeks ago.she may come here i hope.she knew schools would have to close ,but was surprised when i said school would be used as clinics ,morgues or triage areas.the kids will be out when I say so,not them.she says we should be getting something in the mail soon,and didnt know about the webcast last week.that confirmed for me that we control our childrens health and destiny as far as panflu goes.when it goes off anywhere my kids will be at home.right then.that day.and will still pass their grade. you see ,all schools ,everywhere will shut down.i will just have mine at home before they tell them to.the gc was an older woman of experience,the ap was a young guy.he looked a little scared to have to hear the info i was talking,she had a clue.im with INKY!

Bronco Bill – at 09:08

Blue – at 19:27 --- Should the government be made aware that most parents will be taking their kids home from school when the time comes?

I seriously doubt that “most” parents are even aware of the ramifications of leaving their kids in school in a PanFlu situation at this point.


janetn – at 02:17 --- Bronco Bill Where are you? We should all be warned not to move to your neighborhood.

It’s not just my neighborhood! I’m in Virginia, and that was a state-level decision based on the recent 2-day Pandemic Preparedness excercise.

Malachi – at 09:30

In my county all of the classrooms were given bucket toilets filled with some supplies several years ago.This was given to them by local emergency planning groups for any emergency.In my kids school there are two bathrooms for each boys and girls,and two classrooms with single bathrooms in them.If the school attendence was reduced by 1/2 each remaining class could be assigned use of only a certian bathroom.Maybe that would help.Also they could set up curtians around the bucket toilets to further reduce the numbers of kids using the same toilet.Teachers maybe get their own in a different room?My school has quite a stock of bulk hand sanitizer,They could move any dispensers into used classroom from unused rooms.

Just a side note,and sorry if this seems fatalistic,but I will not send my kids to school even if there are plans like the above in place.If I end up losing my house due to failure to pay my bills,Then I have some abandoned houses scoped out that we will try to inhabit,and if that doesn’t work we will live in our new (used) army kitchen tent in some secluded woods areas that are also predetermined. I will take in kids as needed,and try my hardest to help as many as I can,but no job or credit rating is worth my families life.My hubby and I are not essential workers,If we were I guess I would need to plan accordingly.

LMWatBullRunat 09:52

ACM-

Don’t mean to frustrate anybody, nor do I intend to deflect your urge to action, as I understand the need to do something.

However, effective solutions need to recognize the constraints under which they will be implemented, or they won’t work. ( I am going with the thought you want your solutions to work.) I am not knocking your motivation, just your means to the end. Let’s break this out and discuss it.

The situation as I see it is this-

TPTB have decided that schools will not close during a pandemic. What this really means is that schools will not close until the pandemic has proven to be severe, if it does. (i.e.- many have died and many more infected not symptomatic yet, with still many more severely ill)

What you are looking for are strategies to reduce the impact of the pandemic before the severity is known, yes?

The problem is that TPTB refuse to admit that the pandemic could be as bad as a 1918. If the pandemic will only be mild, then your precautions are not needed anyhow, or at least they are not worth the trouble they’d cause. Your precautions make sense only if the pandemic will be severe or worse. And TPTB have already said it won’t be severe, right? SO what will happen according to the Iron Law is that in those locales where the pandemic has been determined in advance to be a mild one, your suggestions will never be implemented. The key to breaking this logjam is to change the threat assessment, as has already been discussed.

Start to see why I think you may have a problem implementing your suggestions?

This refusal to look at the data is what killed a lot of people during 1918, and it may very well kill a great many more during the next pandemic, whenever that happens.

I think a more fruitful approach is to make a plan for what you’ll do for your own, then explain to your friends and neighbors what you are planning and why. If you start a grass-roots movement TPTB may decide to ‘take another look’ at their plan, especially once they talk to the local health department, which as has been pointed out already, likly has other plans for the schools anyway.

I will also point out that a child home alone is WAY better off than a child with H5N1. Folks in apartments can trade off keeping an eye on the kids if needs be; during a pandemic most employers are going to be so desperate for workers that they’ll likely be thrilled to have somebody for 3 or 4 days instead of 5, or for someone that is willing to work half-days. It’s not an “either-or”; there is more flex than you are allowing for.

LauraBat 10:02

I people start dying, especially children, I think most who are able to pull their kids out will, no matter what the school board says. Most parents will not take the risk if they are able to stay home.

The problem lies with those who can not. There are 2 groups within this category 1) those who are threatened by job loss or simply can not survive financially without being paid 2) those wher are deemed “essential workers”. Clearly arranging childcare for critical workers would be the first priority - here I’m thinking only HCW, Emergency 1st responders, utilities, food/water/gasoline/heating supply/distribution. In an ideal world their employers would plan ahead for such contingencies. In reality, most are not.

As for the first group, I suspect that initially their employers will think they can continue on business as usual, but as things get worse so many non-essential businesses will temporarily close. There should be emergency provisions stating that as long as an employer re-opens the employee is guaranteed his/her job back. The problem then is how do those people survive financially until things start to stabalize and businesses re-open.

I’m getting a headache just thinking about it all…

kc_quiet – at 10:19

I thought it was up to each individual district. Now when illness reaches a certain amount, schools here automatically close for ‘x’ number of days.

Maybe there’s an alternative to school/no school.First off, the pandemic is going to end someday, so why not pay schools now for promised extra attendance later? Then those kids affected will lose out on extended vacations for the rest of their pre- college years.And it will end up costing us more as a society, so we’d eventually have to figure ways to redistribute funds in the budget.

Also, why not use some of the older kids to watch some of the younger ones whose parents are working or dead? What would it take to do that safely?

LauraBat 11:30

KC - currently it would be up to each local area. But the state and/or eds may state that schools have to stay open or close. I think the main reason disctricts are not planning on closing is they really don’t get how bad it could be PLUS they are worried about attendance money PLUS teacher contracts(which are extremelly sepcific and laid out for years as to what days thy have off, when, etc.) Push comes to shove, if the schools have to close for 6+ weeks then “too bad teacher contracts” - you’ll have to teach in the summer and sorry kids, your summer vacation will be shorter. No one will be happy, but too bad. In the long run it will save lives.

Average Concerned Mom – at 14:12

I have plenty to say but an epidose of real life has occurred and I have to be away from my computer for a time! (-: Do not worry, I’m coming back!

Sunny – at 14:44

Well, I have to comment. I am a junior high teacher. My district closed all schools for 2 weeks due to a natural disaster.

People found a way to get their kids taken care of - some parents didn’t go to work - some stayed with relatives, etc.

The schools had to close. Period. Parents had to cope. Teachers had to cope.

Now, I know a Pandemic would be more than 2 weeks but, the same principle - no choice - everyone has to cope.

From “inside” experience, schools must close.

DennisCat 15:44

One “alternative” is to close the school building but keep the school teaching going via the internet. Now not all students (estimated that 35% of the US households have access to the internet) have access but it would be better than closure with no teaching of anyone. That would keep the teachers teaching and most children still learning and safe at home. But I am somewhat bias since all my teaching these days is for a university and totally over the net. I will admit it is not as good as “live classes” but it is an alternative. But it also assumes the power grid and the net remains up for a large portion of the people.

DennisCat 15:51

Just got back from getting my flu shot. My wife teaches middle school and the school, the insurance company, and a college pharmacy department worked out a deal. All the teachers and their families can get free flu shots (also, tetanus, ppv, hep A B C). The school nurse was quite helpful in getting it all here for us.

My wife and I were able to “slip in” hand sanitizer on the school supply list this year. The school here now has most teachers listing school assignment on line for students. The school is slowly becoming a little more prepared. But I was so happy to see the free flu shots for all personnel and families. Not great but OK for a start in a town of 600. Not exactly alternative to closure but might help a little. But again, if TSHTF my exchange student will be pulled from the school and if the net is up I will enroll her in some high school/college courses (oncurrent enrollment) on line. She is already taking some AP classes on line at school.

Olymom – at 19:20

I just went to a county pandemic preparedness meeting last night. It is likely that some schools will be used as “PODS” — or flu clinics — the idea is to set up cots and treat flu patients in various neighborhood locations (such as schools) and keep the hospitals influenza free so that the hospitals can deal with accidents/strokes/births and all the other things that will continue to occur. It makes sense — and schools have bathrooms and kitchens.

ACM, I’m sorry, I just don’t see your scenario as workable. If the flu is mild to moderate, then school systems will handle things the usual way — with some extra handwashing and reaching further down the substitute list thrown in — but if the flu is severe or severe/deadly, then you really can’t expect teachers to be teachers and public health officers AND deal with their own families needs. I’m not being a naysayer — but just picture what happens in your scenario when kids have been together on Monday and Tuesday and on Wednesday one of the kids calls in sick. Very likely, the whole group has been exposed. If not, can you, in good conscience, hold class on Thursday, knowing that some surfaces are likely contaminated? Is the teacher supposed to stay extra hours and disinfect everything?

Planning time is limited. Planning on-line curriculum or “take home” kits are steps that could be used in the event of an earthquake or coming storm or other disruptions. Your plan could work if a small community or neighborhood took the “Gunnison Colorado” approach. Apparently, in 1918 that village said “anybody can leave but anybody coming into the community has to sit 3 days in quarantine” — With no one coming into the “child zone” without a 3 day quarantine, I could then see some modified class gatherings happening. Maybe possible on a military base? I really can’t see our schools being open if part of the building is a flu treatment clinic. . .

anon_22 – at 19:34

LMWatBullRun – at 09:52

TPTB have decided that schools will not close during a pandemic.

No, they haven’t made up their minds. That was the purpose of the IOM meeting, to evaluate evidence and come up with recommendations. That’s why that meeting was so important. Read this thread for details

The problem is that TPTB refuse to admit that the pandemic could be as bad as a 1918.

That is also not correct. It was admitted (Martin Cetron, CDC) during that meeting that of the 3 pandemics that we know about, the 1918 one was the most severe. It was also admitted that there is no science that says that is the worst case scenario. However, for the purpose of policymaking, one needs to have some assumptions. So the 1918 scenario was adopted as a reference point, acknowledging that it may not be worst case scenario.

I spoke privately to some of the committee members, and that is their working assumption.

And TPTB have already said it won’t be severe, right?

Ditto with my explanation.

This is a very important point. That TPTB have NOT made up their minds, and therefore, this is the time to influence those decisions.

Kathy in FL – at 19:35

At the risk of sounding completely cynical, schools will not be willingly closed until the top administrative level begin to see themselves or their own kids getting sick with pandemic flu.

Unfortunately, many of the top-level administrators in our county do not have or have never had children of their own. They are out of touch. They are managers … for financial and risk … as opposed to facilitators and educators. If more educators survived into the top administrative levels, then our school system would be totally different from what it currently is.

That fact reflects on every emergency plan our school district creates. Its $$$ and not children at stake.

ColdClimatePrepperat 20:32

It is totally unrealistic (IMO) to keep schools open.

Viruses spread readily by aerosols in the air. People are expelling aerosols before they have symptoms. All the handwashing and bathroom routines in the world won’t help.

Keep the kids home. Schools are the petri dishes of society: the greatest spreader of disease in a community. I’m a teacher and speak from experience.

InKyat 20:57

As a teacher, I do not plan to participate in the tragical fiasco that keeping schools open during a pandemic would turn out to be, even if I lose my job. I would feel like an accessory to murder by stupidity. I am not a childcare provider; I am an educator, and I can’t educate children who don’t survive.

I think schools will close early. The decision will be handed down from above rather than left to school districts. As we all declare daily, people need to be warned in time to plan and prepare.

DennisCat 21:00

States do things differently. Here the funding for NEXT year is based on the enrollment THIS year on the 40th day of classes. So closing the school would not effect the funding for this year. Even a closure now (we are passed the 40th day) would not effect next’s years funding. So some schools would very well close. You may want to check your state’s funding of school before you jump to conclusions about your local area.

InKyat 21:10

If legislators and leaders would think this through, they would declare students “homebound” en masse in a pandemic, a status which means that the school system is still serving them though they cannot attend. Lessons might be printed, televised, or posted to the Internet. I’d like to see states prepare grade-level appropriate lessons ahead of time (if there is time). It wouldn’t hurt if some of these lessons were relevant to the challenges at hand.

DennisCat 21:28

DennisC – at 21:00 “It wouldn’t hurt if some of these lessons were relevant to the challenges at hand.”

Now if we just found someone to fund such an effort. I have been teaching on line courses (college) now for 8 years and would love to set up some relevant classes. I am sure we could get others to do the same. However it would take someone - org -company - grant welling to pay for something like a “Blackboard” course server – get volunteers to create the course materials and then offer the service for free.

DennisCat 21:30

oops, I don’t know how I did that it should have been InKy – at 21:10 above and not myself. It is not cool to talk to yourself. that’s right.

Kathy in FL – at 22:12

Most of the curriculum currently in use … at least in my state … is what is called “scripted.” What that means in effect that anyone should be able to read the “script” and teach the subject. When some of these curriculums first came out monitors would actually sit in the back of the classroom and critique the teacher. The teacher would lose points from varying from the script in any way.

That’s not teaching in my opinion. However, if the school district does consider that adequate teaching in my opinion then anyone should be able to read these lessons out … either into audio or video format depending on the subject … and it should be dessiminated to the students at home.

Whether this is actually feasible to implement if the student is in a household with illness or is dealing with grief is just another question up for grabs.

28 October 2006

InKyat 08:20

Dennis C -

I’d love to see something like that happen. Online learning would be an alternative in Internet-connected households, but perhaps only for a little while, so whatever is provided should be available in print form, too. PDFs could be duplicated, or booklets could be ordered. Half my students don’t have computers and Internet access in the first place.

There is no sense in maintaining the fantasy that the usual school curriculum can be taught in the usual manner when people are falling ill and dying, fuel and food are hard or impossible to get, and so forth. Have you ever been with a room full of students when there’s a bomb threat or a tornado warning or drug search? They aren’t going to be focused on lessons unless those lessons are relevant to their situation, perhaps even potentially life-saving.

Schools will close one way or another, folks - the only question will be whether that happens in time to save lives. Buses must have fuel and drivers. What school district has batches of substitute bus drivers? When the cafeteria doesn’t have food to serve, when the lights go out, and the heat doesn’t work, schools will not stay open. They could probably manage to stay open just long enough to ensure that fatalities double, but that’s about it.

Average Concerned Mom – at 08:42

Of course schools must close.

Of course schools will close when there are no teachers, no bus drivers, no fuel.

The question is how early will schools close?

And for those schools that don’t close super early — before any illnesses anywhere in 100 km — what will they do in the interim? Absolutely nothing different?

InKyat 08:56

We’re getting ready to install hand sanitizer stations in every classroom, near the doors. That’s great until somebody coughs. Most classrooms are crowded. Social distancing is impossible.

LMWatBullRunat 09:11

Respectfully, Anon_22, in at least one US state, Virginia, that evaluation and decision has evidently been made, and my discussion was about dealing with that decision, and others like it. Those locales which are using a more rational process are not as big a problem, and I wasn’t referring to those areas. I’m not saying that’s happening everywhere on earth.

Once you acknowledge the potential threat, most things flow logically from that, and the solutions become logistical problems for the most part. Not saying those aren’t formidable challenges, but once the right policy is in place the rest is cranking through the details.

InKY and Kathy- your comments regarding the flaws in our public education system, or the difficulty teachers will face in a pandemic miss the core problem; public schools are not designed to teach knowledge. The Prussian state-funded state directed mandatory public school system was designed to teach obedience to authority and social conformity, to maintain social control. John Dewey said so explicitly when he campaigned for the Prussian system at the start of the 20th century, and that enforcement of social conformity is why those in charge agreed to adopt the system.

Expecting public schools to teach knowledge is like expecting a bulldozer to weave through traffic at 70 miles an hour down a highway. A bulldower is not designed for precise, quick responses in highway conditions, it’s designed to smash, crush and level things to a flat, uniform appearance. Cut down the high places and fill in the low ones. And so are public schools. I realize that this may be heresy to most here, but read John Taylor Gatto and see what you think. You can get to town in a bulldozer, and you can learn something in public schools, but in neither case are you picking the best method to accomplish your goal.

With respect to the flu and schools, it is completely consistent to see TPTB adopting the attitude that they evidently have, at least in Virginia, because it’s not about what’s best for the students, it never was. The public schools are all about CONTROL, and keeping the students in school and the peons working and paying taxes keeps things under control. Any education that would occur is secondary.

This is yet another example of the Iron Law of Bureaucracy at work. The school system is not being run to impart knowledge, it is being run to perpetuate public schooling.

Knowledge of this reality is CRITICAL to understanding how to get rational policies in place to protect our children against an influenza pandemic. Arguments such as InKY’s and Kathy’s above will not get far. The points that need to be made are those which address how proper prevention enhances the reputation the School Board, how reducing sickness will help preserve the tax base and the local economy, etc. etc. You have to (delicately) point out how their failure to act is threatening the system. That WILL get a response.

Effecting change efficiently requires a detailed knowledge of the system you are trying to change.

Mamabird – at 10:29

LMWatBullRun – at 09:11

“Respectfully, Anon_22, in at least one US state, Virginia, that evaluation and decision has evidently been made, and my discussion was about dealing with that decision, and others like it.”

If there are “others like it”, we probably would be doing everyone a great service by naming them so that specific discussions can be initiated with those states. What I have found in working with numerous states and school systems is that the local public health authorities are the ones that make the decision to close schools. School boards have no authority to keep schools open under such orders.

These local health authorities work for the mayors and county judges of the state (all of whom are elected officials and very politically astute). Their stated game plan is that as soon as there is even a hint of a pandemic reaching their state, schools will be shut down, and only the governor can over ride those decisions, which is highly unlikely because they are elected as well. With any possibility for the death of a child due to calling for closure late in the event, no political animal with any sense will likely attempt to keep schools open.

So if Virginia and “others” have ulterier motives, let us know of them. After all, elections are just around the corner.

InKyat 12:48

LMWatBullRun – at 09:11

Thanks, LMWatBullRun, for enlightening me as to the nature of a profession I’ve been engaged in for 20 years. Couldn’t have understood it without you ;→.

Good teachers lead students to knowlede regardless of the impediments they must navigate. If it were not so, I’d find something else to do. You are right in suggesting that it’s an uphill battle, but children are worth the fight.

As for how to approach one’s audience, you are right in that you have to figure out what makes the people you are talking to tick. It doesn’t take long to figure out who’s a bot and who thinks and cares. I think the best approach is one that appeals to both the interests of the system and the humanity of those who work within it. People are not to be oversimplified.

Olymom – at 16:01

We’ve got two teens in high school and they have had some AWESOME teachers — so LMWatBullrun, I’m kinda thinking maybe you don’t have a family member currently enrolled in a decent public school (and there are lots). The other night I was at a meeting and three teens gave reasoned, insightful statements regarding a local issue. They clearly had learned somewhere how to analzye and prioritize.

As to school closures, I went to a meeting recently where our county health officer made it clear that it would be a public health decision (ie, not a school board decision) when to close schools, and it would likely be a coordinated, statewide decision. I live in Washington, with a smart lady as governor (who can be quite decisive at times), so I am hopeful that our state will act nimbly.

Average Concerned Mom – at 19:29

What’s going through my mind is the alternate scenarios. Anon_22 seems to be talking about some other possibilities — not just closing schools outright, early and for 6 months — but an early closure immediately, say for 2 weeks? a month? Then, a reassessment to see what’s happened — and then … maybe opening schools again? (Or maybe that’s Dude talking about that). Repeating that scenario over and over — mopping up outbreak so to speak — probably over several years time.

This is one possibility of how things could be managed. Obviously, it is not the only possibility. Obviously, anyone with any option would seroiusly look into keeping their kids home for a good three years (or whatever length) and homeschooling as necessary, or starting a bunch of neighborhood Dame Schools — much smaller in size than the typical schools, usually. (You know, like the early settlers had.)

My goal for this thread was to look at what happens — when for whatever scenario — schools ARE trying to be open, to fulful frankly one of their most important economic purposes, which is child care for essential workers. It’s not meant to start a discussion about whether schools actually teach or are useful in other ways or should be abolished; or whatever. I’m just looking at the kids who ARE under some kind of institutional care (this includes kids in day cares) during a pandemic perios — say the entire 2 to 3 year period. I assume plenty of closures, but there will likely be times during that period when one suspects there are no more outbreaks (for a while) and people will be attempting to gather children again so their parents can go back to work. This assumes that we have not collapsed into the Mad Max scenario of course. I still have to see that movie.

I realize I’m thinking ahead of public officials here. If they are still wondering whether to close schools, they aren’t yet thinking about the culture changes that will be necessary or desired after the first wave (if there is one) has passed. We as a culture aren’t used to worrying about controlling infectious diseases among otherwise healthy children. So our only response is — we must close the schools.

But if we have to live with waves and waves, for several years, of hopefully decreasing-in-severity influenza? Prior generations had more experince with this than we did.

As to the questions people had about “How can we possibly keep kids from infecting each other?” I do not expect we can. My suggestions for consideration were entirely passive and do not rely on children doing anything, little grimy germ-spreaders than they be. I suggest things like:

etc.

Again I repeat for emphasis — I am not talking about using any of these measures during an outbreak instead of closing entirely. (People keep misunderstanding that) I am talking about using them for schools that are staying open during the early part of a pandemic anyhow. If schools are just going to close completely for 2 years or more (I guess that is a possibility??) I am going to stop writing on the fluwikie and start writing homeschool curriculum because I smell a market. (It’ll be Waldorf so no electricity needed or desired….!)

After all, someone on this list said, we should care for our children at least as well as we do our chickens. Aren’t they essentially “segregated” from other flocks in inductrial poultry farms?

I wonder if those of you on this list who don’t have elementary education experience know how much kids are mixed up in most schools — I mean how much they are mingled up — moved here and there for this pull-out and that pull-out extra help or instruction; regrouped; put in PreCare and AfterCare — no wonder one kid with one infection will spread it to 50 others in the course of a week.

And AGAIN ONE LAST TIME — I am not talking about YOUR KIDS and YOUR GRANDKIDS. I get that no one on this list will ever put their kids into school once a pandemic starts, not until it is all over 2 or 3 years later! I get that! (Just want to be sure.)

But maybe some one will have to start using schools again?

29 October 2006

fredness – at 06:19

You may want to contact the National Association of School Nurses, state, and local school nurses. Also state and local departments of public health. Tell them how you feel. Provide them with facts. Invite them all to participate here. I usually include some of the text from about the FluWiki to provide some background.

anon_22 – at 06:39

I think school closure will need to be a lot longer than 2 weeks to make a difference! The key is to maintain that level of vigilance until the peak of the local epidemic is past or when 25% of people have been infected, so you have enough herd immunity to prevent big outbreaks starting again.

There will be lots of difficult problems to work through, no doubt about that. Just that if you look at the mortality figures, then its hard to argue other alternatives. The way to deal with the problems is to start now, engage in dialogues with communities, to figure out alternative childcare plans. The Harvard Public Health survey showed that the vast majority of people are able to call on family members to help, but this I suspect is contigent on us giving everybody a lot of notice. Last minute childcare is always going to be difficult, but having that as part of pandemic prep eg when neighbours or friends arrange childcare arrangements ahead of time, will foster the co-operative thinking needed to get us through.

I myself think it may be possible to open say 1 or 2 classes per school for children of essential workers and single parents. But even that will be logistically and legally far more difficult than outright closure and using other community support to cushion the effects.

anon_22 – at 06:49

These 2 slides illustrate why schools are such fertile grounds for transmission. The first slide shows the normal household density, the second one, the no of people you need to invite to your house to duplicate the density in schools.

Average Concerned Mom – at 06:56

anon_22 exactly!

And d) I know you (and I ) expect schools will need to be closed for way more than 2 weeks. But are you thinking that schools will officially have to close for 2 to 3 years? Or do you think, once this pandemic hits, and until it is no longer lethal, kids may have to go to school or be cared for in groups again?

prepmaniac – at 07:11

Essential workers and single parents are capable of figuring what is best for themselves. Some will team up with co-workers to watch kids on different shifts. A lot have family that can help. Others have friends. Other departments need to set up their on day care. These people can figure it out themselves. Just like I can for myself and you can for yourself. If I was a first responder, I would be isulted by people trying to figure out what is best for me. I would like to do it myself. I don’t want the government making those plans for me. That is scary. They might stick my kids on a bus. Who knows. Leave the plans to the parents, Please. Now for the kids who have sick parents, we need temporary shelter in the community for those children. Mabe use the school as a last resort. I think most children in the burbs and rural communities will have a place to go. The large cities are the only place I think you will have people who have no one to help individuals. If I was a first responder, I would make any arrangement besides a groupe setting for kids, or I would stay home. Any arrangement I could make would without a doubt be better than any government local or not could make for me and my children.

anon_22 – at 07:30

Average Concerned Mom – at 06:56

But are you thinking that schools will officially have to close for 2 to 3 years? Or do you think, once this pandemic hits, and until it is no longer lethal, kids may have to go to school or be cared for in groups again?

No, I suspect it will be more like 3 months, max 6 months. After that, it will depend on how it plays out in individual communities, and whether vaccines are available.

lugon – at 07:39

ACM - many of the measures you suggest could be used in other environments! Time to start a “what to do if you can’t do anything else” page? I was thinking about alternatives to buses - maybe cars with add-ons so that people can cling to cars on the outside?

Average Concerned Mom – at 07:57

prepmaniac — If parents have options then of course they can and will use them. If parents have plenty of lead time then they will have time to make plans, as well. However don’t forget that the best laid plans go astray. An essential worker (nurse) might make plans to have the kids move to grandma’s house for the duration, and then grandma has a heart attack. She might work out with her neighbor to watch her kids for her; and the neighbor agrees, until the full implications of a pandemic hits her, and the neighbor is no longer willing to risk infection for her family; or the neighbor didn’t realize she was volunteering to watch a 3 children full-time, live in, for 3 to 6 months. Or the neighbor decides to move out of the city to stay with her own family out on the farm.

Average Concerned Mom – at 08:02

lugon — thanks, I think they would be useful ideas for our society, too.

But I can see they are a distraction to the central issue right now, which is the need to get everyone on board with the idea of closing schools early. No possible infection-control measures will be useful as a replacement for that decision.

prepmaniac – at 08:35

Average Concerned Mom @ 7:57

You are right about the best laid plans. That goes ten fold for government plans. If my no 1 plan falls through, I will then look for my own no 2 plan. I would not want the government to decide for me even if I am on my no 5 plan. I will always be better off deciding for my self and being more self relient. I will never fold to the idea that I need the government to look out for me and mine. Or that the government will. Look at all the people that the government is looking out for now. Look at the difference for the people who are helping themselves. It might be tough, but people need to be more self relient and not say help me because my grandma had a heart attact and now she can;t help me. Go to your own plan B. Then C. Quit trying to get the government involved in all your problems, or mine. I am better off taking care of myself and mine. I feel strongly about this because my DH and my son are essiential workers. I don’t want guidelines and procedures drawn up to help my essintial worker family. Some how a lot of good intended ideas get put into print and become someones nightmare. Remember the people force from their homes against their will after Katrina. Remeber the people -able bodied- angry because the gov did not help them fast enough. I am sorry, but if down on my luck and had to shelter in the super dome…I would have started walking as soon as the storm was over. I would have stopped at every restaurant or grocery store, would have worked for food. Cleaned rooms for a place to stay. I would not have been one of the ones sitting there waiting for a bus to another city. Looking for someone to help me. I would have helped myself. Wha tis wrong with people. Essential workers are not handicapped, elderly, indegent. They don’t need help from the gov. Please don’t convince them that they do. Convince them to make their own plans for their children and then some back up plans. IMHO

Average Concerned Mom – at 09:20

prepmaniac:

“Quit trying to get the government involved in all your problems, or mine.”

I don’t understand where you are coming from here. Perhaps you are misunderstanding me.

I’m looking for ways that public, private, and parochial schools and daycare centers can help keep groups of children together more hygenically, in the event that the schools are open and parents choose to send their children there.

These centers or schools are run based on state government health laws, so of course the government will have to be involved if these laws are to change.

DennisCat 09:29

What about transfers? What about all those “new kids” that have fled the big city in to the country? How know if you have an asymptomatic child or when it takes a week or two for symptoms to appear even in “normal children”. How can you build enough bathrooms for each class? Who will teach the children if there is an expected 40% absentee rate among teachers and even those that recover take a month or two to recover? You may have perfect procedures at school but what about a child that brings a coat or backpack that “mom” sneezed on at home? You many think you have “herd immunity” but what if there is a second wave for which there is no immunity and even with “herd immunity” some will still get sick and die- will it be your child?

I just don’t think it would be a good idea to keep the school open in their present state. Again, I feel it would be better to use “distant learning” methods - even if you had to set up small home classrooms of just several children each.

Wolf – at 09:30

Average Concerned Mom – at 09:20

I have had many heated arguments regarding role of government vs. role of individuals.

We can do only so much as self-reliant as we may hope to be. The decisions made by government entities directly affects our individual preparedness.

prepmaniac, I agree with you wholeheartedly, and not waiting for the cavalry here. Still, anything we can do to influence decisions made at gov’t levels can only enhance - not detract from - our own self reliance.

At least I hope so.

prepmaniac – at 09:43

Average Concerned Mom @ 9:20

I was responding to your post @ 7:57

Where you were concerned about the plans of individuals falling apart. I think people can go to plan B. I don’t think they will use the school to keep their children any way. Look at the condition of the Super Dome after 24 hours as a shelter. Essential workers are not the indigent population that sheltered in the super dome. They can and will -if allowed -fend for themselves. They will not want their children in a super dome situation. The schools need to be closed. If they are not, I don’t think it will make any difference, because the soccer moms, essential worker families, ect. are not going to send their kids any way.

nsthesia – at 10:09

Dear ACM:

I gotta say this for you…ya got PERSISTENCE! :)

I truly hope most here on this forum understand what you are trying to say. I think I do understand. School closure does appear to be the most logical intervention for a panflu. (My child WILL be removed at my discretion.)

But, as we all know, the norm for bureaucracies tends to be the opposite of what is logical. THAT is why your attempt to mitigate the consequences of continued school openings is at least realistic, IMO. At the very least, I would anticipate that the schools will remain open for far too long before making that major decision to close.

We only have to see what happens during seasonal flu outbreaks to see the lack of response regarding the protection of these children. All the teachers I know in various states and districts, when questioned about this topic, state there is no plan for a panflu in their school as of yet. Remember the meeting I attended 2 weeks ago? The comment from TPTB at that time stated they were planning on a response, it just had not yet been formulated. (They were planning to plan.) <sigh>

ACM, at least you are thinking along the lines of mitigation. Because, like you, I also believe that every attempt will continue to keep kids in some form of schooling, just to meet daycare needs. “It’s all about the economy, stupid”… And, I expect that there will be intermittent times of high acuity, with weeks of high infectivity and weeks with a lull. People will be eager to restore a sense of normalcy. <scary>

So, even if we do have some closures, there will be times of re-entry between waves or even after. If this follows like the 1918 scenario, it may still be a couple of years before a herd immunity builds enough or vaccine levels build high enough and we stop seeing significant mortality/morbidity. Schools will surely reopen before we achieve either one.

Good brainstorming, ACM. Remember folks, to have a good brainstorming session, all suggestions are acceptable. And all are welcome. One feeds off the other until a solution is derived. We have to think outside of the box for a problem that none of us has ever encountered. Now THAT is a major undertaking.

Average Concerned Mom – at 12:33

nsthesia —

“So, even if we do have some closures, there will be times of re-entry between waves or even after. If this follows like the 1918 scenario, it may still be a couple of years before a herd immunity builds enough or vaccine levels build high enough and we stop seeing significant mortality/morbidity. Schools will surely reopen before we achieve either one.”

Thank you for getting my point (and explaining it better than I did)!

I think my mistakes were a) a poor choice of thread title and b) bad timing — coming up with these idea just as the “absolutely no choice but to close schools early” idea is gaining speed.

yay – at 12:44

but, but, but … (scared face) … we do gain something if we close schools early, don’t we? … i mean … you are suggesting we close schools early AND some other things?

anon_22 – at 12:57

I dug up some data from my notes that might be useful here. This is from Household Survey Data 2006

Households with Children <18

The US workforce is approximately 141 million. The only households where someone has to quit work if we close schools are the ones where all members of the household with children under the age of 18 are employed, ie 22 million. Since only 1 person needs to stop work, this means a potential increase of absenteeism of 22/141 = 16% of the workforce.

If the cut-off age for children being able to take care of themselves is lowered to 15 instead of 18, it is possible that percentage could be 10–11% only.

Also, of the 12 million single parent households, 5 million have another adult present who may be able to help take care of the children.

Since the potential increase of absenteeism and its effect on infrastructure is being vigorously touted as the reason to not close schools, these figures are important to bear in mind.

anon_22 – at 13:07

yay – at 12:44

but, but, but … (scared face) … we do gain something if we close schools early, don’t we?

Here’s what you might gain, looking at the comparison between Washington DC and Seattle in 1918

… i mean … you are suggesting we close schools early AND some other things?

As I said on the IOM thread at 21:10 multiple interventions instituted early appear to make the biggest difference. The most effective are closure of schools, theatres, churches etc.

anon_22 – at 13:10

Average Concerned Mom – at 12:33

I think my mistakes were a) a poor choice of thread title and b) bad timing — coming up with these idea just as the “absolutely no choice but to close schools early” idea is gaining speed.

No, I think you are right in putting up these ideas. There will be times when all the alternative suggestions will be necessary. Keep it up. We need everything in the toolbox, then people can figure out what works best when.

anon_22 – at 13:12

InKy – at 20:57

As a teacher, I do not plan to participate in the tragical fiasco that keeping schools open during a pandemic would turn out to be, even if I lose my job. I would feel like an accessory to murder by stupidity. I am not a childcare provider; I am an educator, and I can’t educate children who don’t survive.

Hear! Hear!

anon_22 – at 13:29

This slide shows potential absenteeism from households with all working adults and children <12 years.

Working couple and single working parent with children <12 make up 13 million. That is 13/141 = 9.2% of the workforce.

Jane – at 13:47

Should there be phases for schools to consider? Phase one, when there is pandemic somewhere else in the world: ACM’s ideas of very little mixing of children. Phase two, when pandemic reaches US: stay home. TPTB have to hear “contagious before symptoms” over and over until they get it. The TLC thread with the slides are very educational - mixing kills.

anon_22 – at 13:57

Jane – at 13:47 Should there be phases for schools to consider? Phase one, when there is pandemic somewhere else in the world: ACM’s ideas of very little mixing of children. Phase two, when pandemic reaches US: stay home.

I don’t think the decision has been taken yet. The key is to find that critical interval where you can get the maximum benefit with the least cost. I suspect for the US as a country as a whole, there is not enough reason to justify closing schools when there is pandemic somewhere else in the world.

TPTB have to hear “contagious before symptoms” over and over until they get it. The TLC thread with the slides are very educational - mixing kills

For once, this information and the slides are coming out of TPTB, or at least those working with them It is refreshing, and let’s hope they put their money where their mouth is.

lugon – at 14:32

Interesting to count how many single parents etc.

We all have to check the numbers locally, don’t we?

What other “consequences” are “not that bad”?

Science Teacher – at 14:40

ACM, Thanks for your input and for starting this thread. Many of the measures you have suggested to help keep schools healthier would be good to lobby your schools for now. Try using your PTA to get parents onboard). Some of these would be useful in regular flu season.

My concern is that school staff are not trained in disinfection or infection control. Many staff members know very little about pandemics and even less about H5N1. Very little PPE has been stocked. The school nurse has a few gloves, that’s it.

I know a lot of teachers and did an informal survey (20 teachers) on whether or not they would continue to work once a pandemic began. Most said that they would not. All had families and they said they did not want to bring ‘something’ home. Most felt they had no training to deal with infection concerns adequately. All felt they were hired to educate and not to run a daycare center.

My personal belief is that schools will close early when staff call in sick early on.

I think your ideas would be a better fit for working on the establishment of county run and funded, small daycare centers (with staff supervision by RN’s, for those parents that can present a documented need to use them.

Just my 2 cents.

Average Concerned Mom – at 15:36

Thanks everyone!

I am giving up.

The only people who have understood my point seem to be anon_22, lugon and nsthesia.

I will try again in a week, leaving out the “schools” word.

(And I’m going to research industrial chicken farming.)

Average Concerned Mom – at 15:39

and — to those teachers who do not plan to work during a pandemic — and of course that is right — are you not planning to work for 2 years? Or do you mean, not work during a “wave”?

i.e. the “spanish flu” epidemic is said to have run from 1918 to 1920….?

Or do you plan to work a bit in between?

nsthesia – at 15:56

anon_22:

Thanks for the data. Nothing like having a few “visuals” to slap you in the face.

Re: the pie chart for labor status of parents… This is where I see a problem in thinking the age of a child changes much regarding parental work status. While true that small kids present a logistical problem regarding physical care/safety, it is the teen and young adult age group that has the greatest potential for causing infection/contamination due to their poorly developed judgment and their natural need for rebellion and independence. These kids will sneak out if left alone for long.

So, all those poor parents in the remaining categories (78%) are left with a handful if they have to work and leave unschooled teens at home. Talk about a disaster waiting to happen. These “kids” are still in a high risk category for mortality, at least as things currently stand. I would not trust my stepchildren to remain indoors without supervision and they are in university. I hope someone is thinking of this older age group also.

After hearing the Harvard report, it seems quite a large percentage of the population needs to work to survive and/or their employers are not knowledgeable enough to realize they should stay home if sick. I remember reading that a good number of our population is one paycheck away from losing their homes. The majority have no retirement money to speak of. Any disruption in income earning could be disasterous for these people.

That’s why I believe alternatives to school closings will occur until absolutely necessary. <then it will be too late> I just hope we have time to work out some viable plans.

prepperbabe – at 16:13

ACM- I appreciate you generating possible scenarios. I think this is one of hardest areas to face regarding PF because it involves money and children, two very emotional topics for most people, including me.

I am a school-based administrator and I have come to blows with some staff members this past week on the subject of PF. (For me, that means I excused myself to handle an imaginary task before I got emotional back at them.) After we duked it out, I think they did some research because they came and wanted to talk in a much more open manner.

As I have stated before, I have no intention of contributing to the illness of my kids. I’m guessing it may be possible to work between waves, but who knows?

Bottom line- schools can’t stay open without fuel, food, and electricity. The danger lies in not closing soon enough. But once schoolsvare closed because people are dying, reopening them will be viewed in another light.

prepperbabe – at 16:23

InKy- I’m with you on not contributing to the madness if we stay open. We’ve agreed on this before, but it’s good to speak with somebody else who sees things the same way.

LMWatBullRun @ 9:11- I’m saddened to say that IMHO, you speak the truth. In fact, there is research to support your position. When I was a young pup, I had a mentor who taught me such and also taught that schools must be buffered from systemic madness as much as posible. That’s what principals are supposed to do. But it doesn’t always work out. :-) But to get TPTB we have to see the issues through their eyes, unpleasant as that may be.

I just have to say.. I love you guys. In a non-physical, sans sexual harrassment, gender unspecific way. Group hug.

Walrus – at 17:44

This is a great thread, and thanks for starting it ACM. I believe I can see that you are attempting to minimize the dislocation a pandemic will cause to everyone’s lives.

However, with the greatest of respect, I’m afraid that if a major pandemic arrives with the current Indonesian CFR then our lives and routines are going to have to change drastically and immmediately - or else. There is going to be absolutely no possibility, or virtue, in trying to maintain a ‘business as usual” lifestyle.

I think from reading the TLC thread, that for school closures to be effective in slowing the spread of the virus, research suggests that they must be done before the infection rate in the general population gets above 3%.

My own opinion is that there is simply nothing more infectious in the known universe then grubby under ten year olds. I do not believe it is remotely possible to enact “interim” measures because the mere act of sitting in a classroom with an asymptomatic infected child is enough to infect the entire class - and they will then take the disease home to infect their parents, brothers and sisters. The schools are perfect and efficient ways of transmitting the disease among the general population and they must close for the good of the entire community.

As for child care for working parents - tough. You have a choice, you can send them to school, in which case they get the disease and you stop working to look after them (since the hospitals will be overloaded) or you can stay home and home school them.

For those with no alternative but to work, one alternative you might like to consider is simply scaring the beejeesus out of your kids about whats outside and locking them in the house. Alternatively, start training them right now how to manage simple tasks so that they can start looking after themselves. OK I’m being flippant, but there have to be alternatives.

By the way, the Australian plan is for schools to close. Timing will be a function of medical, not political, advice.

anon_22 – at 18:58

The thing about the TLC model is that it gives businesses a sense of what is going to happen, so they can figure out ahead of time who among their staff is going to have childcare obligations, and factor that into their business continuity planning. I understand that that is beginning to happen.

Science Teacher – at 19:09

ACM, Sorry if I ruffled your feathers with my comment about teachers staying home during a pandemic. By the way, I am retired so thank God I will not have to make this choice.

I think the amount of fear that a pandemic will generate will cause many folks to walk away from jobs and stay home with their kids (and not just teachers) and fear will determine when they return.

30 October 2006

lugon – at 04:46

anon_22 – at 18:58 The thing about the TLC model is that it gives businesses a sense of what is going to happen, so they can figure out ahead of time who among their staff is going to have childcare obligations, and factor that into their business continuity planning.

And community planning too.

And family response for those who can’t or won’t SIP - or, if you’re determined and able to SIP, then to the recomendations you can make to those in your network who won’t SIP. Frame it like this: if you can’t think of SIPping, then this will be your scenario …. Sometimes people like choices.

DennisCat 12:21

Here is an interesting alternative: Use of public access cable channels for education. Local areas could combine internet and public access to deliver some classes.

It seems the best I can come up with right now. It just might work for a many students.

nsthesia – at 12:39

Walrus @ 17:44 wrote:

“By the way, the Australian plan is for schools to close. Timing will be a function of medical, not political, advice.”

IMHO, I don’t see the US schools closing because of medical advice. It will be due to a political decision. Heck, a patient can’t even get admitted, discharged or tested just because it is deemed necessary by their healthcare provider anymore. Medicine today IS politics.

If I remember from Barry’s book, politics ruled that pandemic also, not medical dictums. ‘Tis always so…

Come to think of it, where has the Surgeon General been when it comes to this pandemic planning scenario?

Science Teacher – at 12:55

nsthesia, Last I heard there is an ‘acting’ SG in place. Does anyone know if a new one is in place? The last one seemed to me to be pretty ‘muzzled’.

Here is the address if you would like to followup:

The Surgeon General Office of the Surgeon General 5600 Fishers Lane Room 18–66 Rockville, MD 20857

NauticalManat 13:17

nsthesia – at 12:39 “where has the Surgeon General been when it comes to this pandemic planning scenario?”

Don’t know, and the scary part is that for the first time in many years I do not know who the SG is. Googled and it said Dr. Richard Carmody?. That was back in June. Is that still valid? Don’t think the SG has much pull in D.C. these days.

In any case, whoever said above that the Medical decisions will be made by political types is probably correct unfortunately. That was the case in 1918 according to Barry’s book, in most cases to the detriment of the population. If my recall is correct, the Chief Medical Officer of the Army, Army Surgeon General?, begged TPTB not to put troops on ships unless they were quarentined first. He was ignored by President Wilson and they became death ships. Amazing how little changes.

Jane – at 13:33

It’s still an Acting Surgeon General— Rear Admiral Kenneth P. Moritsugu, M.D., M.P.H., Acting Surgeon General. His main page has nothing on panflu. Pandemic flu in the search window led to many links. Followed a link to a kids’ page-it said have a minimum of 2 weeks’ worth of food.

 http://www.niehs.nih.gov/kids/pandemic.htm

31 October 2006

anon_22 – at 08:29
seacoast – at 18:15

bump

Olymom – at 19:16

The University of Michigan identified 8 communities that kept flu rates way down in 1918. Interestingly, three of them were schools (Princeton, Bryn Mawr, and a Pittsburgh school for the blind) — but it seems that the key was to keep the students on campus (ie, they did not go home to families at night). ACM’s plan might actually work for colleges — but I still don’t see it happening at the elementary level.

Here’s the link:

http://www.med.umich.edu/medschool/chm/influenza/index.htm.

I hope that’s not too long a URL. (Slithers back into non-techie corner)

LMWatBullRunat 20:16

ACM-

I respect your motive and your intent in bringing up this topic.

I agree that it’s always a good idea to have a backup plan, and sometimes layers of backup plans.

And I do understand exactly what you are driving at.

I regret that I cannot agree with your proposed course of action.

With the greatest of respect, and not meaning this in any sort of derogatory way, I simply do not see how one can mitigate the impact of a pandemic on US schoolchildren. In order to effect change in the policies in place, we have to convince TPTB to accept the threat as real and to act. If they accept the threat as real, they’ll close the schools, and your plan won’t be needed.

If they don’t accept the threat as real, then not only won’t they close the schools early, but they won’t implement your plans.

I understand that you are looking for a third way, but I do not see any sort of viable third option. This is one case where it’s pretty starkly “either or” Some problems are more loosely bounded, but this one is bound by whether or not TPTB accept the threat. Perhaps I am wrong in my assessment, and if so I hope somebody will point it out to me, because the thought of millions of children dying as a result of political expediency upsets me to the point of nausea every time I have to think about it. However, that is my best “estimate of the situation” at this time.

Saying that things ought to be different will not affect the result. We have to cope with the situation as it exists.

01 November 2006

Goju – at 14:01

My employee’s mom (a teacher) is going to a Panflu conference in Worcester, MA concerning dealing with the Pandemic.

Details to come… anyone know about this?

Average Concerned Mom – at 14:33

LMWatBullRun-

I really think you are not understanding me.

I’m looking at the long term. What do we do if we have to live with this pandemic — and more perhaps besides — for 10 years?

How can we eventually change our culture to learn to live with the virus? We can only shut down and hide away for so long.

That might not be what I wrote at the start of this thread but that is what I ended up writing about.

I realized in the meantime that I have huge issues about closing the schools and its lack of effect on the poorest kids I know. I’ll try to write about that next.

Average Concerned Mom – at 15:00

OK, everyone already has ripped into me for seeming to say schools ought to stay open during a pandemic. No, I did not say that. I never said or felt or believed that.

But even so, part of me is very skeptical about the effect it will have (even though it will save some kids lives) and here are my thoughts. By all means correct me if I am wrong.

From what I understand, there’s some reason to believe that when about 30% - 40% of a population is infected with a virus, then that population will have developed “herd immunity” and a pandemic will slow down and eventually stop spreading.

So the idea of closing schools and TLC is to slow down the spread as much as possible (so hospitals and health care workers can keep up with the cases?) until that 30 to 40% infection has been reached.

This of course assumes that health care workers and hospitals will be able to handle the workload — if all cases happen in a 4 to 6 week period, obviously they can’t, but even if you spread that same number of cases out to 3 months - I’m not sure there will be enough medicine and ventilators and so on to really make a difference, but of course I see it is better to spread cases out over time than to have everything happen at once.

Still — shutting schools removes children from being vectors of infection and slows the spread. OK. All the kids with options — children of the rich, and of the well-prepared middle classes and well-prepared working classes — go home, presumably to houses and apartments with some food, some protective parents — some hope. In cities, the well - prepared, informed send their kids out to the suburbs, to Grandma in the country — the white collar workers get sent to home to telecommute — so they don’t have to go out and risk infecting their kids, and so on. The workers who have options figure something out, even if it is very difficult.

The poor — the legal immigrant who illegally sublets a living room in a countyman’s 2 bedroom apartment, housing a total of 3 families — (4 people in each bedroom and three in the living room — so very high density there in that apartment by the way)-- have fewer options. The menatlly ill, the retarded parents, the overwhelmed parents, the sick parents, the ones on dialysis, the teen moms; the seriously asthmatic, just holding it together parents — they just have fewer options.

OK, so it sucks to be poor, to be ill. This is no big news. But I know plenty of families — families of my students — who live just like I descibed, and yes, if given time and knowledge they will try to prepare, but no, very likely they cannot stockpile more than 4 weeks of food, very likely they will not all 10 of them, crammed into a 600 sq. foot apartment, be able to just stay home, stay sequestered like that for long — and very likely the brunt of the pandemic will be borne by them.

(And by the way they can’t get decent health care on a good day; I can’t imagine that during the 6th week of a pandemic they will be any better off when coming down with PanFlu because they didn’t get sick earlier.)

And the longer the infectious period is “spread out” from a quick, sudden severe 6 weeks to a more drawn out 3 months period, or whatever — I just see a race starting, between the well-off (or better informed) and the poor — or at least the worst-off of the poor, the serious underclass — who just can’t hold out that long.

It reminds me of that joke: Two hikers meet an aggressive bear in the woods. One hiker sits down and put on his running shoes. The other says “Are you crazy? You can’t outrun a bear!” The first hiker says “Don’t have to outrun him. I have to outrun YOU.”

I am just getting this feeling — I’m sorry that I can’t be more scientific about it, quoting economics studies and epidemiology studies — that with advance notice, and planning — a pandemic will go from being an equal opportunity killer to one that overwhelmingly attacks those who are at the bottom of the economic totem-pole.

So excuse me if I can’t get all excited about closing the schools, which I AGREE will slow the spread and I AGREE will save children’s lives; I just don’t necessarily agree it will save the lives of the children of the underclasses. The 30 to 40% population that needs to be infected before the wave is over has to come from somewhere — and I fear it will come overwhelmingly from the poor.

And please please please — do not misunderstand me. I am not saying it is in anyway wrong for anyone to try to protect their children, as of course I plan to do my own and every child I know and care about. I am thinking overall implications here. I fully expect to be flamed for writing this. But it has been rattling around in my brain for a long time, so I have to put it somewhere.

And no, before you ask me, I have no idea how to fix this problem. I am very depressed about it.

DennisCat 15:28

Average Concerned Mom – at 15:00 “herd immunity” - mostly from the poor.

The 30% or so many not come from the poor more than the rich. It might come from the urban areas more than the rural areas and regrettably from the young more than the adult.

lugon – at 15:39

No reason to be depressed if we’ve hit a wall and we know it. Ok, it’s your nose that hurts, so thank you, ACM! :-)

As things are now, all children (except those homeshooled) spend many hours each day in crowded conditions. Closing schools would place part of the children in less crowded conditions, leaving some in unchangedly crowded conditions. So it looks to me that we could locally have a two-speed pandemic. Maybe the local wave would behave like having two counties on top of each other, with reintroduction of infection … yet another reason why the rich should think about the poor.

It looks like, schools or no schools, we do need to focus on the poor (no money to SIP) and crowded (high density living). Look into how many, how they live, what would be the options. The options ACM has outlined and maybe some other options. Maybe we can think about how people live in other parts of the world to see if that brings us some ideas. This is a job that needs to be done. We at Flu Wiki can at least give it some thought.

Also, I’m not sure 30–40% cummulative infections in the poor will help the rich. I think each “network” (the superimposed “counties”, if they really behave as such) needs its own 30–40%. Herd immunity would work for each herd, no?

Homesteader – at 15:39

ACM,

your scenario: Still — shutting schools removes children from being vectors of infection and slows the spread. OK. All the kids with options — children of the rich, and of the well-prepared middle classes and well-prepared working classes — go home, presumably to houses and apartments with some food, some protective parents — some hope. In cities, the well - prepared, informed send their kids out to the suburbs, to Grandma in the country — the white collar workers get sent to home to telecommute — so they don’t have to go out and risk infecting their kids, and so on. The workers who have options figure something out, even if it is very difficult.

What are you basing that scenario on that the rest of us are missing? I hope you are right and we are wrong. Most of the rest of us are operating out of the scenario that essentially no one will be prepped except us and some survivalist types, so the majority of people will suddenly find themselves with no food, no heat, no medical care, no utilities, no resupply, no government coming to save the day, martial law, quarrantines imposed, etc. . etc. . etc. . .

lugon – at 15:50

As usual, we’re trying to push the “close schools” meme into the mainstream but we’re more advanced, looking at further problems.

Let us start again: How do we slow a pandemic down? We want to diminish the number of un-necessary respiratory contacts (URC), and do so with more energy in the younger population (our fast-spreaders). Specifically, we are seeking to avoid child-to-child respiratory contacts, right? If a child has, on average, 30 URC, we want to make that go down to, say, 5.

Can that be done? How?

DennisCat 15:53

All this depends heavily on the R0 of the virus. If it is high enough it will “rip through” society so quickly that it will not matter if the schools are closed or not. The majority of all people regardless of social status could be exposed before the first person in “the herd” shows symptoms.

If you read some of the 1918 stories, some people where fine getting on a bus but died by the time the trip was over. In Nepal now, (unknow illness perhaps malaria or Kalaazar) some reports are that people drop in the fields within the day.

Remember if you wait until the first child shows symptoms, he/she has been spreading it for about a week or perhaps two.

I see few options for the poor, except faith based systems that would be prepared before hand.

lugon – at 15:56

Homesteader – at 15:39

Agreed - I too think most people won’t SIP. Ok, maybe if we talk about closing schools more than zero people will SIP. My current guess is “not many”, but how can I know.

We need to look at each specific strategy on its own. I think closing schools will significantly reduce URC in many children, but likely not for all children.

I can’t see further. Yelp!

lugon – at 15:58

DennisC – at 15:53

When we talk about closing schools, we try to mean “closing schools early”. Proactively rather than reactively. Before there are (many) cases.

DennisCat 16:05

lugon – at 15:58

My worry is that the entire country children, adults and all will be exposed before we even know it has entered the country. I just don’t know what the “signal” would be for closure. After all we cannot even agree to when and what signals the mods will give fluwikians.

lugon – at 16:16

if we’ve thought about it, it will be “as fast as possible” - we can’t do more than that :-/

lugon – at 16:20

Anon_22 has just finished writing Forum.TheCaseForEarlySchoolClosure. Let’s think about this other “poor” ideas here in “Alternatives”.

anon_22 – at 16:20

DennisC – at 16:05

My worry is that the entire country children, adults and all will be exposed before we even know it has entered the country. I just don’t know what the “signal” would be for closure. After all we cannot even agree to when and what signals the mods will give fluwikians.

You are mixing 2 totally different issues. One is public health policy: someone who holds the appropriate job will have to make a decision. It won’t be a perfect one, but it will have to do, otherwise there is no way to implement policy. The other is personal responsibility: whether mods (or myself specifically) are willing to pick up the responsibility for what is essentially a personal judgement that each individual will have to make.

Average Concerned Mom – at 16:22

Homesteader at 15:39 Yes you are correct — I was making an assumption along the lines of — pandemic doesn’t hit for at least another year or two, giving society enough time to get more people on board with the idea of closing schools early and being prepared to stay at home, telecommute and so on — and that by getting that message, those with resources would be able to be better prepared to stay at home.

and, a big apology to Flu Wiki — I wrote that I expected to be flamed — but that really was not fair. In about 8 months on the Flu Wiki I can’t say that I have seen ANY flames. I just meant, I expected I could be in for some intense responses.

Homesteader – at 16:23

I posted this on another thread, but will repeat some of it here.

I’m a high school biology teacher. My wife is an ESL teacher. Our kids are middle school aged. They have been homeschooled in the past. They have been raised to be thinking, self-reliant kids. We don’t have Television and they wouldn’t know Nintendo if it bit them in the butt. They have computer skills and use our computer regularly. They will be taken out of school at the first verifiable sustained H2H2H2. . .anywhere in the world. I will continue to go to work until the first case arrives in North America, or possibly goes from one continent to another. But it will be sooner, not later. Then we will SIP to the best of our abilities with our goats, rabbits, preps, etc. . .behind the gate at the front of our longer than average driveway.

Average Concerned Mom – at 16:30

Awesome Homesteader! Good for you! Great for your kids.

My kids don’t watch TV either — that’s why I can’t get on the computer for very long.

nsthesia – at 17:19

ACM,

Unless we have enough time <how much IS enough?> for this possibility to sink in, I don’t have much hope that either the public in general, or TPTB will shut down the schools proactively.

I base that comment on my lifelong experience with hurricane preparation. The statistics are dismal, even for those living along the coastlines. Until recently, most shelters, (often consisting of public schools) did not even meet basic criteria for withstanding anything greater than a thunderstorm.

Individuals often do NOTHING until storm WARNINGS are announcing an imminent hit. Humans have lived with these disasters for eons. Yet usually nothing is done until a few hours before…and then it is inadequate.

Now to be faced with a scenario (panflu) that has not been witnessed in generations, and do I expect any different response? Not this skeptic. Especially when it comes to kids as being a highly vulnerable group. We give lots of lip service to our value of children, but we all know the statistics on the monies spent on kids (low funding for teachers, schools, lunches, healthcare). Heck, I’d have more confidence if the threat was viewed as being more likely to kill FOOTBALL PLAYERS! At least, THEN, someone would pay attention and it would be funded prior to the next football season!

Additionally, academia is one of those bureaucracies that takes forever to change…just like medicine. Look how long it has taken for the schools and hospitals/clinics to become computerized. In general, these systems are decades behind. And if they have started updating, these systems are often fragmented and archaic because it takes a committee to make a decision! It’s always management by consensus! THAT is why nothing gets done.

So, here we are, waiting for a panflu to exhibit it’s antigenic SHIFT, while we in academia and medicine are exhibiting our bureaucratic DRIFT! And being proud that we are at least DRIFTING! Uuuuuuuuuuggggggggggghhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!! <deep breath>

Ya know, it all boils down to the fact that it is a pain-stakingly slow situation to change any paradigm. There HAS to be an exception for crises! Any sociologists on this forum?

DennisCat 17:22

anon_22 – at 16:20 No I don’t think I am mixing two things. My point is that in the US there is no one person/group that could close all the schools. No one anywhere wants to take the responsibility for others. At the very best school closure might be able to be handled at the state level (but only for public state funded schools) but there is no national authority over schools. Due to political inertia, I doubt that all the schools would be closed early. Where in NM the funding locally is based on last year’s attendance so local schools may want to close early but it would be an individual school board choice. I don’t think that nationally the ten’s of thousands of schools would agree on a single signal to close all schools. The bottom line is that a lot of children will die before some schools would close- the same with the opening of the schools after a pandemic. Some will be fast but many will be slow in closing.

My approach is basically about like Homesteader – at 16:23 child (foreign exchange student) out at first large clusters and my wife (who teaches) out at first sign of any continued spread into the country. I too will close my gate. But we have looked at alternative “distance learning” methods through online colleges.

Homesteader – at 17:30

For as long as the power grid stays up we will be utilizing the online resources as well, like we did when homeschooling.

Average Concerned Mom – at 19:39

nsthesia at 17:19

Well, whether people would prepare or not is up in the air. My opinion is, many would prepare, if they believed a pandemic really was going to happen, and if they had a sense of urgency about it, from sources of authority they believed. (Not under current circumstances, obviously, being told “There is no pandemic now, and we don’t know if or when one will occur.”)

My reason for thinking this is just personal. I’ve never prepared for hurricanes or blizzards, figuring we could muddle through somehow. (And indeed we do). And if it was really bad, some other area could help us out. (before Katrina — and rmember I live in Maryland!) But as soon as I realized what a pandemic could do — I started prepping, and all my family members are now too — and none of them have ever really prepped (beyond some extra toilet paper, maybe) for natural disasters.

There’s something about “infectious disease” I think that can capture the imagination a bit more than a natural disaster. But that’s just my opinion.

In addition, there’s the idea that you don’t have to prep for any certain length of time (6 weeks, 8 weeks) you need to prep longer than 40% of the population. Once about 30 to 40% of the populatin is exposed to the virus, herd immunity will set in and the pandemic will stop. (Note: I have no idea if I am correct in saything that.)

If that idea ever sinks in to the general public, then I forsee a vast arms-race of prepping. Competition is something that most people respond to — especially competition over survival.

As for a diecion to close schools — once people understand that it will save lives, I can’t see any state, or district, wanting to be the one to NOT close schools on the early side.

I don’t have the optimism some have that we will actually *know* when a pandemic has started, but that’s an enirely other question. I think it may very well be unclear, or there may be several false alarms.

02 November 2006

anon_22 – at 03:00

DennisC,

It may be true that there is no one authority to close schools, but recommendations to do so coming out of the highest and most respected scientific circles like the IOM should carry a lot of weight (assuming that is what the IOM report will say, which hasn’t happened yet). Local officials ignore that to their peril, IMO>

Average Concerned Mom – at 15:40

any idea when the IOM report will come out?

DennisCat 16:13

Average Concerned Mom – at 19:39 “don’t have to prep for any certain length of time …you need to prep longer than 40% of the population”

interesting view. I need to think about that. If true- I wonder if that extends to the Macro view: a country only needs to be better prepared than 40 % of the world’s population to come out ahead of other nations?????? Switzerland is looking good although they do have some nasty virus genes in some of their swine (S227N and G228S) that H5N1 could use to go pandemic.

crfullmoon – at 16:41

Governments are going to lose too many educated skilled brains and hands to run a modern economy post-pandemic at this rate of public unpreparedness /unprotectedness. They are gambling we can’t have a depopulating event?

Just keeping the workers going to work isn’t going to keep the infrastructure up; it is not absenteeism per se that is the opponent but death by a virulent virus, and all the cascade collateral effects and casualties of disruptions in imports, emergency care, mutual aid, ect.

No matter what we do, we aren’t going to be able to prevent all impacts/deaths -but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t try and be proactive. Just have to get more information out now. People will be less trusting of what they are told once pandemic starts, I think.

03 November 2006

OnandAnonat 13:43

If the loss of talent is proportional to the overall population loss, some might think that acceptable. I do not agree, but that may be the source of the complacency.

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