I know this has been discussed previously, but I think this subject is ever evolving and worthy of revisiting.
What is your personal trigger point for SIP/quarantine with your family? Is it based on WHO or gov’t recommendations, number of cases, location of cases or something else?
Is your personal plan in graduated steps, or does it move from normal to SIP in one grand leap?
Personally, I am having a difficult time determining what should be the trigger point for my family…maybe it is one of those “you’ll know when it is time” things?
The only thing I am sure of is that it won’t be WHO based. It looks like they won’t move to 4 until we are experiencing full blown panflu!
I’m not paying attention to the “stage 3/4/5″ thing. I agree. That designation will come too late.
I am paying attention to the reported numbers mostly. I have made a graph that compares the number of humancases against deaths in each new area over time. It has sharply risen in the last three months, as we all know. So, I guess once I see an even sharper rise, that’s the first real warning sign, because it could really break out from there.
Definitely don’t rely on tv/radio news media. Unh-unh. Internet news aggregators far more efficient. Internet in general more accurate/up-to-date/allows other alternative news sources in, too. More sources=more objectivity. Plus, get news from all countries at once - the ones in time zones ahead of us.
Don’t wait for the 6pm local news, is what I’m saying.
My own personal sense is that something is brewing behind the scenes in Eastern Europe/Africa right now that we are not aware of — and perhaps that any officials are not aware of, except a few —
there has been a certain quiet in the news aggregators in the last week and a half.
But this could be misplaced instinct, hard to tell.
When H2H moves beyond people who handle poultry, hopefully in another country, we will top off our supplies locally, do a final internet order stock up, and then baton down the hatches here.
I think it is hard to say for certain until we are actually in a certain situation. There are so many variables and scenarios. I think it is good to play a few possiblities in your head and try to figure out what you might do should it occur. I’d rather have two plans then just one. My HOPE is that I can:
- stock pantry first with all bits of equipment, everyday meds (but lots of extras), water and long-term shelf life items now while CLOSELY monitoring the situation. This wold give us plenty of survival food but I’d like other items as well.
- if things are heating up elsewhere (maybe not necessiarly H2H but huges leaps in BF in birds - wish I could say for certain but I think it will be gut insticnt) then I stockpile items with shorter shelf life like crackers, cereals, powdered milk plus fill the freezer with meats, frozen juice., etc.
- if I can stay one-step ahead of the rest of my state before TSHTF - and who says we will be able too - by even a day then I fill my fridge with as many perishables (dairy, fruit, veg) as we can consume before going bad. plus gas in the cars, and lots of cash. For me that would be H2H in Europe and/or here. SARS moved to Canada in frightening speed and eventhough it didn’t kill that many (relatively) it caused huge disruptions to business and medical care. BF has been on mnay people’s minds for so long that even if the threat isn’t 100% there I think some people will panic and that’s when I want to be out of the way!
Infected health care workers and/or 7 cases, next day 40 cases, next day 150 cases, next day 1000 cases, etc…
I don’t expect to ‘trigger’ all at once. I’m almost to the point of social distancing now-I think infected HCW will be a biggie for me
lauraB – at 16:27 - “…I think some people will panic and that’s when I want to be out of the way!” Well said, the last thing we want to be is part of the masses fighting their way through Costco. I forgot who said it hear, but it was brilliant - “I plan on being home organizing my suppliles.”
good post LauraB
My tipping point is when the SECOND h2h cluster of 20+ individuals shows up…
lets not hope the first is in hong kong airport and the second is in los angeles
Personally, I intend not to self-quarantine unless it is absolutely necessary. I still need to earn money to pay the bills.
When H2H bird flu is discovered in the U.S., anywhere, even if it’s Alaska, I will get the last of my supplies. I’ve got 2 months worth of food now, which I plan to rotate. When H2H is officially found in birds in the US, I’ll stock up on bottled water and other beverages, some baking supplies, etc. Because when they admit that publically, there will be some panic buying, but most people will be buying supplies for the short term.
But I’m not going to isolate myself unless it is H2H in my home city.
Also…Ricewiki, you’re not the only one thinking it’s been too quiet lately. It almost seems like the calm before the storm.
My personal trigger will be when Melanie says the wolf is at the door or something similar. She is my canary. OK I know I shouldn’t put so much weight on any one person’s opinion, but it seems to me she’s got the best tuned radar of anyone around here.
So, that, or when WHO says we’re at level 6 ;-)
ricewiki, I’m with you. Something is not right. My sleeping patterns have changed. Which has always been an alarm for me. It’s almost like the officials are trying to delay so they can catch up. Tom Thumb comes to mind. Yep, Tom Thumb. That’s it.
Roman, my sleeping patterns have really changed too in the last two weeks! (plus that dream I had…) I’ve been attributing it to stress in another area of my life…but.. I wonder if it has something to do with being tuned in through the fluwiki somehow…
I just don’t know. I made a mistake in my last post. It’s the Little Dutch Boy. You know the one who tries to stop the leak with his thumb. The leaks start out as little and begin to grow. If you look at a map of the BF’s current locations, it looks like a pretty good metaphor of the dam in the story. I’m not a scientist, so I do see this situation in images and symbols. Using current information as my guide. It is a story unfolding. Frankly, it feels like the climax is coming. It’s unnerving.
EmilyH if you wait till it’s in your city you are taking one heck of a gamble IMHO.How many will have been expossed, infected and spread to others before first local person becomes sick?
I’ve been following the HPAI H5N1 “story” (loosely) for six months, and discovered this great site about 4 weeks ago. Around that time, the events in Turkey has just gone by. I read many postings, stating that the authors were concerned that the WHO website had stopped (wish i had better words for this…) listing the chronological information of infections (date, age, etc… I never saw them so what they contained was a guess). Anyway, recently the “cummulative cases page” ( http://tinyurl.com/fpm6x ) hadn’t been updated for over a week. Thought to myself, uh oh… they’re to busy to do this… is this “it”?… (when azerbaijan was really kicking in)…
I think that’ll be a clue. Meaning when we get “nothing” it’ll actually mean that there is “more”.(Guessing here)… Nothing… more nothing… then bamm LEVEL 6. OTOH my known pitiful ability to speculate on anything, is why i stay away from the stock market.
EmilyH – at 20:10 “Also…Ricewiki, you’re not the only one thinking it’s been too quiet lately. It almost seems like the calm before the storm.”
I was actually going to start a thread entitled, “The Calm Before The Storm?” but decided against it.
It really seems to have been much too quiet on the Western front recently.
Anyone else sensing this?
Okay - now I’m really freaked out. Anyone see this?
“No evidence that bird flu death woman in Shanghai had contact with poultry”
Shanghai. January 27. INTERFAX-CHINA - No evidence has been found suggesting that a migrant worker who died in Shanghai from bird flu on March 21 had any direct contact with poultry, city authorities told Interfax today.
That just sucks
I looked at it (posted to news thread). Notice that the date Jan 17 is wrong it should be today (in china) or Mar 27. You can tell because it talks about the worker dead from the flu on Mar 21.
So Roman – at 23:17 is right - it just sucks?
Following the ABC movie, I’ve been getting the idea that my personal trigger is going to be at the first I hear of any explicit and spectacular human-to-human anywhere. That very day I’m quarantining, unless I can find reason somehow to do it beforehand.
Problems: by the time we hear of it explicitly, it has taken WHO at least 5 days or whatever to mull and test and deliberate before reporting. Add to that the 4 days (at least) the virus was shed with no symptoms. Even without a WHO delay, this 4-day period enables the virus to basically go everywhere in the world.
Point: we have to somehow “sense” the breaking point before it happens if we hope to have any real amount of time to do last-minute things. Argue if you want that psychism isn’t possible, but the military effectively uses remote viewers ALL THE TIME for recon and consulting. I think we need to develop some of this. Seriously!
Even if not outright psychism, a kind of modified psychic intuition that bases itself on the facts available and a monitoring of patterns, etc. Many of us are already doing this. Hunches are often wrong but often they can help notice things that would otherwise go unnoticed.
No need to debate pseudo-science here - the U.S. military depends on this stuff, so can we! (of course, they use highly trained remote viewers - it’s not something just ANYONE is able to do.) It’s one possible solution to trying to “close the door after all the horses have already run out.”
What do you think? Am I just crazy? I don’t think so.
I think we already do some of this, as I said. Banshee’s consolidating the Indonesian thread is part of this. It’s not about coming up with wacky ideas or jumping to unlikely conclusions, but using what data we have — and sometimes that data comes from unusual channels.
Otherwise, the pandemic could be going around now, and we wouldn’t know for another 5 days or so — and by then, it’s in Paris Texas or wherever.
Disclaimer: if this is too weird, just ignore me… it’s okay:)… in fact though… I bet the mil is already using RV to check out the BF
I’d like to know if anyone is focused on a trigger point right now….like the report of clusters.
I’m watching it closely too Watch Dog, and have been since I saw a machine translation of this news yesterday on crofsblog. To riewiki’s point, and from a perspective enriched by specific training in both intuition and remote viewing (i’ve had a varried life and am a curious guy, what can i say) I’m feeling like I’m in Limbo for the last two days…not sleeping well, not sure why. Intuition or middle aged insomnia? Dunno, but I’m keeping my eyes on concensus reality data and my gut on metapatterns.
Watch Dog, gotta tell you this is the most nervous at this moment that I’ve been so far with the reports of the large cluster in Indonesia and the report of the confirmed case in Djibouti. If they confirm anymore cases in the area of the Indonesia cluster, especially with health care workers, I’m going out immediately for my last prep trip and that will be that.
My own trigger point for isolation is flexible right now.
I’m waiting to see CFR before I decide for certain what to do (yeah, I know thats risky, and only useful if we get some news on it starting elsewhere, not in my country.
Clusters of H2H are definitely my trigger for finalizing whats on my last minute “To Do” list. Guaging an approximae CFR from that is what Ive planned my personal response on.
If the CFR is equivalent to 10% or below, then I’ll likely go with a modified isolation- avoid anything but work. When PPE at the hospital runs out- thats my trigger point for “seeya!”. If the CFR stays what it is- I say it right away.
Ive had ARDS before, I dont want it again.
AdirondackMountainMan
Please do tell us if you “see” anything unusual… I appreciate whatever abilities you may have. We need whatever help we can get with this. Metapatterns are definitely an aid.
AdirondackMountainMan – at 16:08 --- Very transparent trigger point! ;-)
BB- Don’t forget the glass-bottomed tankard so you can see the trigger point coming through the Red Wine Flu Killer
I think he was trying to get something across telepathically:)
BroncoBill…ya got me laughing out loud! All day today, I keep accidentaly trying to click back to the main page via “post” sheesh. it’s getting embarrasing!
or…
Yes, young jedi…If you see nothing at 16:08, then you have nothing to worry about!
Truthfully though, my inutition will function primarily to cause me to increase vigilance, as I’ve done today. I doubt I’d get so strong a hit that I’d be willing to post “it’s happening” without substantive data. I have a woo-woo edge, but I’m a science guy first.
It brings me great joy to know that I have brought some humor to your day, even if I am the humorous thing… :-)
AdirondackMountainMan --- :-) LOL!!!
BB I saw a couple of people mention you and red wine before. Can you point me to the thread that has the info on red wine?
Watch Dog --- This site was linked to by PFWAG some time back in January. Here’s the forum thread:
I just sorta picked up on it, since the article “claims” that Red Wine is somewhat anti-viral. And, I just happen to like a good Cabernet with dinner. Or a somewhat good box of Merlot after dinner ;-)
I offer no guarantees!
Kewl! My experience in the sandbox sorta paid off!!!
We are ready to SIP when we hear of large clusters, unless they are in the USA. If not in USA we will implement our hot list (final preps) over the course of a couple of days. I know this could be dangerous as the spread may be fast, but we would attempt to limit contact with other as much as possible. (gloves and masks, decontamination at home.) I am hopeful that we will have a short time to tie everything up and head out. If not, we could make it with what we have(maybe) and liveing off local game. Going to get a load of red wine flu killer tonight.HEHEEHE.
BroncoBill – at 17:15
“Or a somewhat good box of Merlot after dinner ;-) “
A whole frickin box? You are my ideal!
LOL
BB,
Congrats on your successful sandbox experience. See, that wasn’t so hard, was it?
EOD --- ;-) 1 box = 5 litres. Costs about the same as 5 litres of gasoline here in the states…and tastes a helluva lot better!
Melanie --- Tweren’t bad atall! Looks like a got my edumacation today!
BB
Thank you,
So I wonder how much red wine I should drink per day as an anti-viral? My wife loves red wine so we have serval bottles. I don’t mind using every trick in the bag. Is there a list of other anti-virals? Red wine and vitamin C?
Here is the Complementary and Alternative Medicine pages. Lots of information there.
Resveratrol is the “medicine” in Red Wine Flu Killer! ;-) Thanks Melanie…I knew it was here somewhere…
I now have wine with either lunch or dinner. Vit C, Vit D is good too.I had no trigger point. I just became interested in October and feel compelled to watch it on its journey around the world. I have prepped minimally, have tried to suggest it wouldn’t be a bad idea to prep at least minimally to others. I approach it in a very low key way, and always hope it is further off than we imagine. Not fearful, we will be facing a lot of problems beside this in the future. Its one of many things that I consider, yet don’t allow to overwhelm me, or stop me from day to day enjoyments and diversions. I can understand how anyone with children dependent on them must feel, and am suprised when people I talk to really aren’t ready to even prep minimally. I say a few sentences, suggest putting a few items like water and baby items aside would make sense, but I think people don’t want to think about it. Life is good, it shouldn’t be difficult. At lunch someone commented that a teacher told her, two parents confronted her and said “Noone says no to my child. My child doesn’t know the word no.” Well it seems people don’t want to know the words pandemic bird flu. It will alter their lives, and they don’t want to know.
Lily, I envy your equanimity. Perhaps it is the legacy of my caveman forebears, but my reponse to the threat posed by this virus, as defender of my little clan, is to select the “Nuclear Option”, and to arm myself as well as I can to face down this modern day version of the Saber-toothed tiger.
As for the child no says “No” to, she is due for a rude shock at some point in her life when suddenly reality smacks her a good one upside the head, and Mommy and Daddt won’t be able to intervene.
Continue enjoying life. I am trying to do likewise.
My trigger is kinda flexible too. Because of where I work, I am very very concerned that if it does go H2H I could get exposed early and not even know it. -so I am paying close attention to any news out fo Indonesia and Asia.
I would isolate other than work, until I could try and establish “work from home” if they’ll let me. If they tell folks to stay home though, I doubt I would be allowed to stay on the rosters for long. I think they just give us all an extended unpaid holiday.
Hopefully this doesn’t go H2H until at least September. By then I can have a few paychecks in savings to get through bill-paying if I can’t work.
Only a few more prep items needed/desired: A salt-water purifier (hand-pump style). A 50 gallon collapseable water container. Extra bicycle gear (extra tires, fix a flat, etc). More fishing gear. More canned fruits and veggies. Probably more plastic plates too. Oh yeah, and one of those sun-showers.
We are fortunate to be in early retirement, so when there are rumors of cases in the US we will stay home. I hope also depend on my former coworkers in the local ER to alert me. There are still things I need to purchase, but I have a pretty good stockpile.
Haven’t posted in a while and frankly have become less convinced the BF will ever go h2h seriously but am keeping my radar up anyway simply because if it does the consequences may be fairly dire. I’m watching for HUNDREDS sick and most dying in the same geographical area of confirmed BF before I ratchet up my efforts again. Am moderately prepared for “whatever” at the moment but would probably aquire more essentials if that happened. Went throught the constant worry phase of this thing and come out the other end of that. Visit the Wiki and other sites still for anything “breaking” to keep an eye on but overall life is back to “normal” for me. Try not to worry too much :)
Well I would love to prep to the level some of you have, but lack the funds and when prepping now would not be needed if this thing starts in 12 months, 18 months, never, ? Or next week. That is the problem. So I am taking a just in time approach to prepping. That is plan everything for mild i.e. closing public functions, some supply disruption, etc. to sever where utilites are gone and I need to be completly self sufficient for months. A plan takes time, but costs nothing, the key would be when to act. I agree waiting until major newsstory would be too late. I figure with a great forum like this, I will know when to act before the general public knows and panic buying starts. So I watch the news here and try to get real information about the treat. I am also nervous about new clusters and agree it may mean nothing until more is reported. I do remember a story about a frog that was put into a pan of water and the heat slowly raised, the frog cooked. Another frog is placed in a pan of very hot water, the frog jumps out and is saved. So is this just slow heating until.. it it too late to jump. I am not an expert, but does anyone know in 1918 what time of year was the first wave? Summer? Winter? Perhaps the quiet time is just the change of seasons and virus activity slows, at least where it is getting hotter in Northern hemisphere.
doug,
Here is a graph of the 1918 flu waves in the UK: http://tinyurl.com/p7mzz
doug baker – at 00:31
SARS was like frog in very hot water and jumped and modern society survived. Pan-flu is like … frog in water with heat slowly raised. Many preppers are feeling burned out. If this lasts another year and nothing happens, there will be so much political pressure to ‘stop wasting time and money’ that no money will be available for research in vaccines, antivirals etc. Already, there is an argument that the bird flu has been around since 1997, and still hasn’t mutated to H2H, maybe it never will. The moment 2007 i.e. 10 year milestone hits, and still no H2H (I do hope it never arrives), the deniers will gain momentum by doing nothing, the scientists will get exhausted by working so hard.
doug,
Here is another graph which shows the 1918 & 1919 death rates in individual cities (New York, London, Paris, Berlin): http://tinyurl.com/ek2vn
See our friends Peter Sandman and Jody Lanard on Worst Cast Scenarios, Bird Flu and Risk Perception, an important essay.
Melanie, that is a good article….
rice,
Peter and Jody think the long thoughts so that we don’t have to.
I know I’m new to the discussion forum, and sorry to have to ask an obvious question, but would some one please explain what SIP stands for?
Shelter In Place
Shelter in Place
My trigger point is non-specific. Partly I will be “listening” to the chatter here on fluwiki, part will be watching the internet news, part will be mother’s instinct … and partly will be if I have enough “stuff” yet. I keep thinking I do and then find out I’ve completely forgotten something simple or need an additional back up for something simple.
And doubly frankly … and selfishly … if this has to happen at all, please let it be after my house in fixed. <sigh>
http://www.weather.com/maps/activity/coldandflu/index_large.html Found this today. Sorry if it is a rerun for those who have been here longer.
I almost had mine a minute ago because of that scary post. HeHe
Personally I think we have time and that it might linger a lot longer as is. I feel that the genetic picture that the japanese researcher is persuing. (sorry I have forgotten his name or the link) will prove out, and that it will be a smaller subgroup who have genetic linkups with the virus as is who are being affected. Perhaps this is because of my particular character. I have always found it better to sit back and wait until matters fall into place. Nature has sudden surges, and so far it seems to be circling the globe slowly enough. One day I’ll wake up go through my routines, amble off to the library, sit down, log in, and it will be staring at me and no one else. I’ll say as much on as many threads as possible, say why, and then make one last sweep for water and what all. Go home call my kids and wait. I haven’t reached anywhere near that point just yet.
“I almost had mine a minute ago because of that scary post. HeHe” Me too, even though I should know by now not to believe thread titles.
“Last” shopping trip signal for me: a dozen simultaneous small clusters in diverse places, or several HCW getting it.
“This is it, hunker down” signal? A family cluster followed by neighbors getting sick the next week and then more each day.
I’m looking for spread beyond any family cluster, beyond any possible common source point. If this thing remains hard to get and affecting rare single households, I don’t see that it’s any worse than lots of other diseases in the world, except for the economic devastation of the chicken industry and of families dependent on chickens for income or protein. This virus is having a real harsh effects right now on poor people all over the world.
Trigger point? When the surgeon general makes a prime time announcement, or there are people in the street with hazmat uniforms, or my children show up at my door needing to stay, or government issues statements that says there is nothing to worry about, or someone I knows dies from it, or a neighbor calls for help, or the county asks to place an orphan - which ever comes first. But then I work at home, have an independent water supply, solar energy, food preps, hidden food preps, and am mostly watching from a distant “remote site”…..
But then again- the real question is triggered to do what? Shoot to kill, or help others, share your last box of rice, and take water jugs to neighbors,….. I guess I am an old softy, but I remember a line from the movie “Curly Sue” (I think that is where I heard it) - love is when there is not enough food and you let the other person eat first.
EmilyH
Thank you for mentioning work! I don’t post too often, but I was wondering if I am the only person who has to go to work. Now I’m not trying to be obnoxious, but I am truely curious about other peoples expectations. Given the head-in-the-sand attitude of most media and governments, what makes everyone think they can go into hiding before it hits? Are you all planning on giving up your jobs Or do you think your bosses will be willing to admit there is a problem?
I’d like to think I’ll share my last box of rice…but then I think of my two sons, aged five…Hope I do the right thing.
I finally got an answer from my boss if BF goes pandemic. We will close. There is no job worth your life.
kgb – at 19:55 I bet you would give your sons the rice first before you eat. I have no children here- mine are all gone with “families” of their own. But If they showed up at my door- I would hope they would bring their own box of rice, but they could have what ever I have.
i’ve badgered all my children into prepping. I also prep for my daughter and the baby she has as well, just in case…
My boss runs a city and when I sent an email asking if we had a pandemic plan my answer was silence. I am sorry to think it, but I expect most bosses will respond in similar fashion.
During the 1918 pandemic “public officials” stated that there was no flu problem. The press published obituaries that omitted the person died of influenza and anything about flu was put in the back pages of newspapers. Don’t you expect it will be the same this time?
MLBIT – at 19:51 Exactly! I’ll be nervous about going to work before my company has a clue there is a problem. I’m afraid I’ll use up my vacation time with false alerts and then end up being exposed when it actually hits.
Yeah, but we gotta try anyway. (I don’t know how some of them can stand themselves; not trying to mitigate a foreseen disaster)
Dark Influence
You hit the nail right on the head. I can’t afford to give up my job each time I think it might be it, and I think that is what it would come down to… I don’t expect to really know what is going on.
I keep thinking of the jews in the concentration camps in WWII going to the “showers”. As I understand it, most of them went willingly hoping they would really just get a shower. When things become too horrible, I think people just ignore reality and think what they want (or what is safe).
It seems like it will come down to taking a chance with losing a job or run the risk of becoming infected before I know there is a problem.
Medical Librarian Back In Texas MLBIT – at 20:57
See if you can postion yourself to get a “at home” on line job.- it worked for me.
MLBT,
Ask about your institution’s continuity plan. We have a boatload of them here on the wiki and new ones are arriving every day.
I’m a library director, so that isn’t realistic. I don’t think it is realistic for most people really. I guess the best most of us can do is be prepared, keep watch and hope for the best.
As I read this series I was reminded of our equivalent residents in the thriving towns of Pompeii and Herculaneum, on the sunny flanks of Mount Vesuvius in that vintage year of 79 AD. Ah, the glory of Rome. And oh business was good! Everyone’s making money, buying more slaves!
Trus, that mountain was acting up a bit, Vulcan at work at his forge, making golden armour for Jupiter, if one truly believed that sort of rubbish. Just smoke and mirrors, starting, stopping, waxing, waning. Nothing to do with making clay pots, sewing tunics, selling fish, playing politics, enjoying life!
Now, IF it were to get truly dangerous, if the Gods feel neglected in our sacrifices, IF…well, I’ll just keep half and eye on it and IF need be, turn things over to my slave supervisor and take my family to Rome for a holiday and shopping….
Just take a couple of days to wrap up details here. I’ll have plenty of warning. The astrologers will tip me off before the mob panics. No need to seek shelter now….
< Been there. Done that. >
MLBIT - I work in a library also, look after the online services for one in Australia. I have no idea if they’re likely to approve a work from home situation, I would hope so as assuming the infrastructure is still there, it’s all possible.
Nikolai, very funny post :-) And you might well be talking about the Indonesians living near Mount Merapi at the moment…
Azi — 05:27
Yes, does apply doesn’t it. But actually, I was talking about you, and myself and all we fluwikians…and the mass of our fellow citizens.
< Been there. Done that. Died. >
Nikolai—Sydney: We chide the young for the risks they take, for thinking that they are immortal. But here with this situation we have a World of Adults thinking that their societies are immortal. We are no different than our youth. It is just a different scale. And yet, it is even worse.
They are careless with just their lives. We are careless not only for ourselves, but for all future generations.
Nikolai---Sydney – at 05:15 Speaking as one of the slaves being bought and sold, I’m a little nervous about Vulcan. I can’t leave my job because I need to feed the wife and kids. Besides, these chains are pretty tight.
I’m aftraid Dark Influence speakss for many out in the world,who work for their families daily bread. You know we can’t all do the ideal for an actual pandemic, and volcanos do rumble now and then, but don’t errupt. Everyone simply must do what their circumstances dictate. We all wear chains of some sort. Possessions are chains, just as loved ones can be. Some are free, but not many. It would be very lonely out there on Robinson Crusoes desert island having only ones self, even if fed and watered as livestock are. We are social animals, the wiki proves that. Some of us are blind to the threat, and noone will change their minds. They are in denial. Like the Pizza maker (a really macho man) who ticked off his wife. She poisoned him, tried to do away with him multiple times. He never beleived it. The avian flu is doing away with people, multiple times, but as my neighbor told me. “Noone is dying of The Bird Flu, nowhere, not in China, not in Indonesia.” She is a very worthwhile, intelligent woman, and knows her facts. I said what had to be said, and dropped the subject. As she said, “We all have to take care of ourselves.” So be it.
I am fixing up one of my prep baskets, just for her. She is a good neighbor, and a very worthwhile human being.
A big basket, after reading the Indonesian news. I thought I’d take off for a while, but It starts getting a little tense whenever I do. Don’t think this is quite it. Oral fecal transmission h2h. But people are sloppy, food handlers are sloppy. I wouldn’t want to be a tourist in that neck of the woods right now.Listening to Gerald Finsey composition on WQXR and thinking of an Australian aquaintance of my husbands, was it Ian. I wonder if he is out there in the Wiki world. Suddenly I wonder about a lot of auld aquaintences who have been forgot.
Nikolai---Sydney – at 05:15
Happy Apocalypse!
Chide the slave owner if you like and take yourself off to Rome too, but we slaves are stuck in Pompeii. We have to wait to make sure the volcano’s rumble is more than a rumble before we can run off to Rome.
I hope the slave owners wealth holds out through what might turn out to be a lot of false starts. Those trips to Rome can be mighty expensive and you might just find yourself being sold into bondage just like the rest of us.
Some in Romania have reached their “trigger point”
Romania Hysterical Over Bird Flu
“Bucharest. A real hysterics wave took over Romania because of the bird flu, Bucharest newspaper Libertatea reads today. In half of the Romanian districts vets, sanitary inspectors and Mayors are going around looking for the H5 virus that was “let out” from the farm in Codlea because no one knows where exactly the suspicious meat from the farm has ended, the newspaper read”
Endless potential triggers:
Reports of H5N1 in birds and people along the Somali boarder. http://www.voanews.com/english/2006-05-12-voa50.cfm
I think the idea of preps is so you don’t have to be at the shops and trying to get all the other essentials at the same time as a mob. Therefore I SIP when the mob starts. Bad news will motivate the mob when the time comes.
Rod Australia: my sentiments exactly
Every week I’m prepping but I will still try to get that last trip in. Thanks to fluwiki I bet I’ll get a two hour head start before panic sets in.
That last trip is for stocking the fridge and freezer, and for short shelf life items. I am not counting on the fridge or freezer, but if the power grid stays up, then bonus.
Might be interesting to see if Brangelina and party pick up and leave Africa. She’s the darling of the WHO afterall. That would definetely get my attention to make the last minute run. MMMMmm maybe release a story about something disconcerting in an exam requiring a US hospital assessment for mom and baby?
A possibly useful point to again mention: the very word “trigger” has powerful connotations of the mechanism firing a revolver or rifle. A deed of relatively decisive finality.
I urge us to feel able to go to shelter, to lock-down, at such signals or warnings as may seem to dictate that --- BUT to realise we can even yet come out again after a day or two, a weekend or so. Few of us will be welding iron bars across our doors and windows.
It is not vital we aim to self-isolate just on the bell and therefore risk getting caught. We can go in a bit earlier…. If TOO much too early, come out again, at least partially/temporarily.
Make any sense?
Nikolai: the news that there are 3 more people from the 8 person cluster now with symptoms i find troubling me more than the initial cluster. I am now on a “hair-trigger”
Woodstock:
So, what about my post, just above at 02:02? Should you do a tentative, trial ‘lock-down’ this weekend? If nothing else, it will wounderously clarify which of the many ‘desirables’ we don’t have are really ‘vital’ to us.
Forgive me if i’m being dense, but a lot of my preparation is centred around my daughter and her son who dont live with me. I dont know how i’d do a trial lock-down without really putting her and the baby out. It seems mean to take him out of a routine that he really depends on unless we really need to.
Well, lady, YOU said it. “…unless we really need to.”
That’s the question always, isn’t it. For me, too. Should I run my credit card up to the maximum, putting my finances and security at risk? Should I put off other needful-seeming purchases?> Should I purchase excess perishables and risk losing them? Should I commit my precious EGO to an almost explicit statement that ‘this is it’? ETC.
I sympathise. Maybe you should do a practice just on sewage failure or electricity interruption? That would be worthwhile, perhaps also relieving pressure to prepare further?
good idea! I knew bolsheviks were a good bunch of blokes ;)
Leo7 – at 01:06 “Might be interesting to see if Brangelina and party pick up and leave Africa.”
Very interesting thought. I agree.
Woodstock,
where’s the news about the 3 new infects from that Ginting cluster? Do you have a link I can read?
I just read a Niman post on number seven thread. Is that it?
Here is the full report.
World Health Organization Expands Team Probing Bird Flu Cluster May 18 (Bloomberg)
— The World Health Organization sent two officials to Indonesia’s North Sumatra province to investigate the largest cluster of human bird flu cases, as a government official said sick animals may have been involved.
Medical epidemiologists Thomas Grein and Timothy Uyeki joined an investigative team in the province today, said Sari Setiogi, a WHO spokeswoman in Jakarta. The H5N1 avian influenza strain infected as many as eight members of a family in the past month. It may also have been in farm animals near their homes, Agriculture Minister Anton Apriantono said today.
`Hopefully the two people heading to North Sumatra today can contribute and identify the source,’‘ Setiogi said.
Infected animals increase the risk of human infection and create opportunities for the virus to mutate into a pandemic form. Fatalities from H5N1 this year have surpassed 2005 levels as the virus spread to more than 30 countries on three continents.
Pigs, chickens and ducks are raised by about half the 400 households in the North Sumatran village of Kubu Sembilang, where some of the infected people lived. Waterfowl are the natural hosts of avian influenza. Pigs are susceptible to both human and avian strains and are considered a potential ``mixing bowl’‘ of flu viruses.
Ten of 11 pigs in the district where the infected people lived were found to have avian flu antibodies in their blood, Apriantono told reporters in Jakarta today.
The presence of antibodies is an indication of an existing or previous infection. Antibodies were also found in chickens and ducks by a national laboratory in Bogor, and confirmatory tests on the animal samples are underway, Apriantono said.
`As soon as we know it’s positive, these animals should be culled,’‘ he said.
Major Concern’
`If the virus is in pigs, that would be a major concern,’‘ Ton Schat, a professor of virology and immunology at Cornell University, said in an interview today.
Previous testing on farm animals surrounding the patients’ homes had shown no evidence of avian flu, raising concern that the virus may have been passed from one person to another.
At this stage, the possibility of human-to-human transmission cannot be ruled out, the WHO’s Setiogi said.
Human-to-human transmission would suggest the virus had undergone genetic changes making it more contagious to people. Avian flu has the potential of sparking a pandemic if it spreads easily among people.
`It is certainly alarming, said Dick Thompson, a WHO spokesman in Geneva. `This is the largest H5N1 cluster we have seen. There are obviously important questions that we need answered. But right now it is too early in the investigation to say anything definitive.
Yesterday, three members of the family said they were feeling sick, with symptoms including headache and cough.
At least 115 of the 208 people known to be infected with the bird flu have died, the WHO said on its Web site May 12. The tally doesn’t include six cases, five of which were fatal, in North Sumatra and an unrelated fatality in East Java confirmed by the WHO yesterday.
ricewiki – at 02:39
World Health Organization Expands Team Probing Bird Flu Cluster
`It is certainly alarming, said Dick Thompson, a WHO spokesman in Geneva. `This is the largest H5N1 cluster we have seen. There are obviously important questions that we need answered. But right now it is too early in the investigation to say anything definitive.
Yesterday, three members of the family said they were feeling sick, with symptoms including headache and cough.
So, what are you going to do about it?
Yes, we’re falling into NEWS and other digressions, rather than hitting the core idea of ‘Personal Trigger Point’ as the Moderator reminds us.
My personal trigger point:
IF - IF - IF - in the next few days I read “The three members of the family who said they were feeling sick, with symptoms including headache and cough have been admitted to ICU….” Then that would be a shot across my bow.
(Disclaimer: Big “IF” )
anonymous – at 09:07
IF - yes, IF. Especially if they did not attend the BBQ. The timing of this third group is consistant with H2H.
I will go into my two for one mode - getting two cans of beans for each can I normally buy.
also, get two boxes of ammo for everyone you practice with.
I will continue buying slowly each week, until we hear about bird to bird BF here in the USA. I will then buy all major items fast. My trigger point will be when the first case of H2H is found in this country (USA). Any later and you may be too late to take cover. Any sooner and you may need up with no supplies left.
I live in a normal 75 home development in the country about 15 miles from a city. I expect no problems once I go under cover. Unless the BF time frame is longer or that people die at a higher percentage then the 50% now.
>time and distance<
My trigger point will be when we start to see exponential H2H cases anywhere in the world. If in Indonesia, there had been hundreds of new cases at the end of the hot week, then I would assume that this thing was off and running.
Felicia is right…while we are concerned about the first case in the USA or wherever the wikimember is, it might not show up until some time after there is a rapid escalation in case numbers in Indonesia or another part of the world. IMO, that would be a better indicator of trouble. This is not to say that a case in Des Moines is to be ignored…just that our expectations of where our ‘tipping point’ indicator rings a bell may be out there, elsewhere. Maybe riding the coat-tails of a volcanic eruption or earthquake, or???
DW supports me in prepping. She does rib me a bit about the quantity of TP stored, but, heck, I had a multi-month supply BEFORE I started prepping. Daily she asks me what’s new on the fluwiki and I’ll tell her of new outbreaks, clusters, etc.
This week my responses have been mostly, “Good news, it’s pretty quiet”.
Now I have an eerie feeling that this could be the quiet before the storm. If I were female, I’d be more concerned. Female intuition always seems to be better than that of a male.
Hmmm. Must have lost my cookie. anonymous – at 23:56 was me.
Not sure I like the word trigger, what happened to “tipping point”. I was working well with the visual of me “tipping” off a bar stool. Its a process. It happens in stages..
Anyway, being pretty much prepped at this point I would say my “T” point would start with the first human case here in the US. At that point I would probably start avoiding larger public situations and keep the fresh groceries near capacity.
The first H2H confirmed cases in the US would probably keep me pretty close to home. Probably one last trip to Wally World for freshies at that point.
Any larger clusters or multiple clusters would probably put the lock on the front gate. I am very rural here so I feel like I should have a little more safety margin. But after all this precaution, a week or two of preemptive SIP would be worth the peace of mind. The one thing I AM counting on from our system is the pre “event” survelance and the response to the first cases. I’m fairly sure the CDC will be all over that.
Closed due to length. Conversation is continued here.