From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Whats Your Tipping Point

18 March 2006

Cache Cow – at 15:09

I hear many people talk about sustained human-to-human transmission as the moment they will begin to self-quarantine. What exactly is that and where will it have to take place for you to put your plans in action? Asia? Africa? Europe? Anywhere?

ricewiki – at 15:15

I’ve been trying to figure this out.

We’re supposed to look for those first “clusters” that seem to show up with no connection to any immediate poultry source. Or clusters in which the people are not related to each other (ie., weren’t living on same farm) but nevertheless get sick in the same location.

But where it is in the world… I think matters less. It will spread just as quickly, from wherever it begins, I would think.

Right now I am just doing a technical analysis of the timeline of increase in human cases and human deaths. I use WHO statistics and make myself a graph. Once I start seeing major jumps, I take more and more action.

Hard to say what the tipping point could be for me. I don’t live alone right now either and it is difficult to get everyone in the house on the same page of “belief” about the gravity of the situation.

Lollipop – at 15:27

I have that problem also. No prepping will happen here until spouse is convinced it is happening or is 100% certain. He is certain I’ve just gone off my rocker.

Lily – at 15:30

My tipping point,nothing rational. Just pure instinct. Like everything I do, might make no rhyme or reason to anyone else. I still prefer to hope. Of course the first h2h case would get me moving, otherwise just check things out. Am no longer all that interested now that spring is arriving. Will be doing other things,even while I’m well aware of the situation and all its ramifications, and down issues. I don’t pay to watch disaster movies, though today am going to see Johnny Depp in the Libertine, as Lord Rochester, a brilliant man who died of V.D.. Don’t recall if he lost his nose too. Every generation has something. We have Aids, and a resurgence of V.D..currently. Of course risky behavior fuels those problems. Risky behavior of a different kind will fuel Bird Flu. I think little by little the public will get the picture. Of course the clock is ticking, ticking, ticking along.Lets hope it isn’t as close as it seems to us, and that we do have, as O’Reilly put it, 10 years to a pandemic. Wouldn’t that be grand.I’m not interested in giving up too much of my time to Bird Flu anymore. I’ll just keep my eyes wide open, and get on with living my life.

Nautical Man – at 15:33

Given how relatively quickly the Pandemic spread in 1918 when folks had to get from country to country by ship, I personally think that we will plan on buttoning up about no more that a few days to one week after the initial reports are confirmed of person to person transmission, anywhere in the world. I am retired, but my spouse is close to it and the plan is for her to retire immediately or work from home. Will hope to use the intervening few days to buy a few last minute things although most of my prepping is done, will see my doctor this week looking for the last prescription meds.

We will all know within a few days of the inital reports whether this is going to be a mild Pandemic, as it was in ‘57 and ‘68, a bad one like 1918, or, God forbid, something even worse. Of course in 1918 the initial wave was fairly mild, the second wave, in the last few months of the year was the big killer. Will have to play it by ear. From what I have read, would think that within just a few weeks it will spread worldwide.

I hope and pray that all our prepping will not be needed.

Cache Cow – at 15:36

If it’s of value to anyone, my wife and I have a one word “codeword” that will draw the other immediately out of work and straight home. If for some reason my wife can’t get me on my cell because I am in a meeting or I can’t get her because she is with patients, either of us can have an “important” message brought in to the other with the codeword as a part of it. We will then meet at home, rush out (if time permits) to top off supplies and then self-quarantine.

Top Cat – at 16:11

I’ve been stressing over this too. Right now my husband is out in California and won’t be home for weeks. I offered to pack some masks and gloves in his luggage just in case something bad happens while he is gone, but he looked at me like I had lost my mind. He has been very tolerant of all my prepping and occasionally asks the status of the bird flu. I suppose if things started to step up, I could overnight him the supplies.

I have a folder with info and web sites etc that will further my preps as things develope. I realize that ordering anything on line once things start moving rapidly probably isn’t going to work, but I live where we can buy just about anything in a day’s time. I’ll just use my preprepared lists so I won’t overlook things.

I have all the food, cleaning and pet supplies, etc for three months. Will need another generator and extra gasoline and last minute things.

I’ve told myself all along that sustained h2h in the U.S would be my signal. That may be too late.

This is a really difficult decision.

anon77 – at 16:32

This is a really good board topic for discussion and a tough one. Like ricewiki, clusters of H2H with no connection to poultry would certainly send off an alarm in my mind and also send me out to the store but fast. I also appreciate Lily paying attention to her “instinct.” (I always enjoy Lily’s posts). A combination of both, I guess. Meanwhile I continue to put supplies away here and there and go on with my life. Pan flu may or may not happen.

Eccles made an interesting point on another thread about just giving up on trying to talk to people because they all look at you like you’re nuts. I have to agree with that position of just dropping the subject. It’s like with cigarette smoking—you put the information out there and then it’s up to people to follow through or not. You can’t force them to. I’m just trying to quietly make some preparations for self and family. I will get very adamant with my 77 year old mother, though, since I feel a different kind of responsibility toward an elderly parent. I will stock her house myself if I have to. Overall, my feeling is that there is a huge resistence to dealing with this issue on the part of the public and it’s going to take pure, unmitigated fear to shake people out of complacency. There’s nothing I can do about that.

Hillbilly Bill – at 16:45

My wife and I both work face-to-face with students in a large public university. We have students from all U.S. states and MANY foreign countries. Once I hear that there is sustained H2H transmission, we plan to take some emergency personal leave. If PF51 fizzles out, we will come back to work, but I figure that while we are off the school will be closed down. We just can’t chance waiting until H2H reaches the U.S. That six degrees of seperation works awfully well for people in our situation.

Satago – at 17:09

It’s a fine line to walk, isn’t it? I mean, we don’t really have any idea how this is all going to PAN out (pardon the pun). Like reading a short description of a story but nothing else, ala TV Guide -“Flu ravages world, who will survive?”. Could be fast, could be slower. Could be waves, but who’s to know? This will be the first time people have really been able to handle this situation, so that will definitely affect its course. Like we’re throwing a rock into the river. We’ve never really seen one coming, and we’ve never had the medical and scientific advances we have today, or the communication.

When I hear about it spreading between people, I’ll spend the last day or two out of quarantine taking care of last minute stuff, but no stores or shopping, and checking on relatives.

NotParanoidButat 17:10

Lollipop i understand about people thinking your are insane but just secretly! prep its amazing where you can stash the stuff!

FW – at 23:02

The problem is, by the time we hear it of it going H2H, it may be a lot closer than people think. After all, first health officials will have to notice a cluster, then they’ll have to test to make sure it’s H5N1 and not something else, then the news will have to filter through various governments and layers of the WHO to the media…

And all the while that’s going on, the virus will be spreading and spreading and spreading.

This may be a case where we get almost no warning before it’s upon us.

Nikolai---Sydney – at 23:57

Wonderful cumulative perspective from each and all of the above posts! I hadn’t given this question any thought—but I certainly will now.

Only one contribution have I: To point up what several have said…on any H2H, DO NOT wait to isolate. Weight the small advantages of those last bags of onions, bags of potatoes, etc, to the dangers of waiting even a few days too long and needing…body bags.

19 March 2006

Prepping Gal – at 00:18

If you’ve read “the Great Influenza” by John Barry you know that he strongly believes the Flu took off in Kansas and spread from there. I think we have to consider the possibility that H2H could begin on this continent. That’s scary.

I’m still reading this book (I can only read maybe 20 to 30 pages a day) because I’m stunned at the ignorance, disregard for civilians, lies to protect oneself and a president (Wilson) that would only focus on the war. Just watch the increase in war talk about Iraq. That will be a clue that the adminstration is trying to redirect attention elsewhere.

It brings me to my next thought and that is--- As you read the headlines and visit various flu related websites have you had a knot in your stomach that it’s about to break. I try to stay calm but the knot is there. Anyone got ideas about how we can sift through the facts and eliminate or downplay speculation. It’s a risk and I haven’t come to terms as to what will be the signal that my plan should be activated.

MaMaat 00:20

FW, you’ve got it exactly right. If H5N1 ever does change enough to go pandemic, it will not wait politely for us to get ourselves in gear to respond. When (if) it goes H-H, by the time it is definitively confirmed it could well be on every continent. No place in the world is much more than an afternoon away from anywhere else. We’ve been watching these viral fevers in Malageon (India). They are suspected to be dengue fever, but they are apparently testing for H5N1 as well, just to be sure. It is likely (and fervently hoped) that it is dengue fever or some other illness. If this was H5N1, if this was efficient H-H, that cluster of 2000 would rapidly become 3000, 5000 and so on. It would be like a wildfire- a spark would be blown to a new area (perhaps a single as yet asymptomatic case) and the fire would grow there too. The more likely scenario is many sparks travelling in different directions. Any illness that causes rapidly increasing infection (both in numbers and geographically) will have my full attention, I don’t believe it’s wise to rely only on official confirmation in order to initiate last minute preps.

Eccles – at 00:28

There are really two considerations to the decision point and what you intend to do when you perceive it. The issue is what happens to announce the arrival of your tipping point, and what is everyone else going to do about it. If you are able to watch the news (remember that it is being controlled by every government in the world to protect their international commerce) and ascertain that something is up, then the normally conservative approach would be to “wait until morning” and reconsider. In the hours you have given yourself, some major news could hit the streets and you find yourself part of the pack trying to sweep up the last sack of potatoes.

Or, you could determine ahead of everyone else that it is time to do your last sweep, only to place yourself into the path of an unannounced and unidentified infection wave that is spreading rapidly.

Those who are depending upon a WHO determination of H5N1 Level 4 or 5 or 19 need to review the behavior in the early stages of this pandemic and decide whether they wish to potentially place their safety and their family’s safety into the hands of this politically controlled body.

A cautionary tale can be seen in the availability of Tamiflu. I have been watching the H5N1 issue for a long time. Tamiflu was discussed in medical and academic circles, and was something that many had scheduled to get a hold of as things developed further. The medicine then went from unknown to unavailable in about 1–2 weeks time. Some missed out literally by a day or two. They are on this Wiki. Ask them.

Whatever you think your timing will be, reconsider placing yourself on the wrong end of someone else’s announcement.

Melanie – at 00:41

Eccles,

I take all of your analysis into my thinking and I don’t have this worked out yet. This is a critical element for me as I have a long list of people who are relying on me to say “Mrs. Peel, it’s time.” I’ve got a boatload of meetings in the next month which will tell me more, I’m a risk communication specialist in this area in my professional life, and I’ll carry back what I learn here. My family is relying on me, too, and the only people in my house who are completely prepped are the cats. Oops, they aren’t people, but they are family and food is easy to store. For me, not so much and I’m dismantling one of my bedrooms for preps.

LoveTexasat 00:57

Melanie I know what you mean about your cats, I have two small dogs and the first thing I did was make sure I had their food. They are set, and I am still working on me. I am not sure at what point I will make the decision to stay home but I have a feeling it will come from info on this site. Thanks again for all you do.

Eccles – at 01:02

Melanie - Just one impertinant question - Do you also wear one of those Mrs. Peel outfits while going down your alert list?

Nautical Man – at 01:05

Prepping Gal

My reaction to John Barry’s book, The Great Influenza, was the same as yours. I read it expecting to learn about how bad the Pandemic was, and I did, but, like you, the stupidity, arrogance, and ignorance that made it so much worse made me angry that so many died because our elected and appointed people in charge disregarded the advice given to them by the best medical people. The collusion of the press in all this was most disheartening. Let us hope that the press will tell the truth if and when TSHTF. There seems to be enough mavericks in the press these days that the government will not be able to stifle them and accuse them of being unpatriotic as they did in 1918 and have done during every war since, including the present day.

This from an old Vietnam vet who sees an echo of those days presently.

Fellow fluwikians will be there to write the truth!

chillindame – at 01:08

The day I see a bird fall out of the sky dead, that will be my personal tipping point absent any other major breaking news. I have been around birds, both wild and domestic, my whole life and have never seen one fall over dead before. The minute that happens I am going home and closing up shop.

NotParanoidButat 06:30

Eccles I enjoy your posts ! you speak a whole lot of sense when I think this whole issue is out of hand your voice of sensible reason comes to the fore thanks again

NW – at 06:46

My tipping point will be when Bush says the current FEMA director R. David Paulison, “Pauli, you’re doing a heck of a job”.

Lily – at 14:11

Thanks NW.Chillingdame, saw a seagull do a kamikazi dive in the road ahead of me. So long seagull. Didn’t stop to pick up the squished bird. This was yesterday. I didn’t hunker down. I once saw a bluejay flying, and he plummeted to earth. When I checked the bird, it had no sign of injury. That was before bird flu was ever mentioned. It can happen. I will check things here and trust it to be measured and debunked if necessary. I will buy a radio and listen once in a while, but I think it will be here on the internet before if gets on the news.Those here will be starting threads right and left. H2H IS HERE THREADS, and if it is a freaking troll I think we will all take great pains to TAR and FEATHER the sick creep.I think we should show a little less tolerance towards this kind of interference. As it seems to be getting closer, false ,misleading and warped postings should be shut down as Quickly as we can.They get less and less tolerable.

Prepping Gal – at 16:34

Except for the obvious (money spent preparing) is there anyone out there that is already in a semi-quarantine state? If you aren’t out preparing do you find yourself trying to stay in doors? Are you changing any of your lifestyle now? Are you going about your normal work day? I’m not doing any of these things but I started thinking that each of us has our own tipping point and it would be nice to know if you have started and what prompted this decision. I think about doing trial runs as others have done for a weekend (i.e. no power etc.) I think about no computer, no TV, no radio. For me I’ve got a couple hundred books to read and I love sketching & I’m stocked up for that. I like being home (in semi rural area) but I think hubby will have a more difficult time not going out- he Irish with the gift of the gab.

Satago – at 17:13

I’ve been in a semi-quarantine state since I was a teenager. Before that I was just antisocial.

Wayne – at 17:22

Satago – at 17:13

:-) at the risk of seeming frivolous - me too. I won’t have any trouble with cabin fever, even if the electicity and phones go out. Books, paper, pen, and my own imagination. As well as all the other problems to solve.

cinda – at 17:26

Husbabnd & I have been discussing this but we get stuck at - What is the trigger?

I think like someone on an earlier post, that it will be news I see here on the wiki.

Then I think you have to take into account- what do you do for work. How many people do you come in contact with during the day? I don’t work with the public per-say, I work in an office in a cubicle. No one else need enter my cube but me. I can put up ribbon to keep the cleaning people out- the only reason they go in is to empty my trash- I can get hold of a roll of bags to keep in my draw and set the full bag outside my cube when it needs to be taken away. I can spay down the entrance edges with disinfectant. I can wear a mask and gloves if I need leave my cube to use the ladies room or the microwave. I can push open any door in the office with an elbow. All well from that perspective. My concern would be- based on some depictions of spread on an airplane that I saw- if a coworker sneezed or coughed ,in any of the cubes adjacent to me- it looks like the “germs” can travel quite some distance. The tops of our cubes are about 2′5 feet higher than the top of our desks. Would the “germs” make it up and over that? Or are the droplets from a sneeze or cough heavy enough not to travel up? I am in a support position for a supermarket chain- I greatly suspect that inside of 3 days after any indication that there is going to be quarentine- I would have nothing left to support. If the store is empty and the trucks aren’t running- there’s no need for me. I think- like many others that the government would step in and take over the warehouses to ration. So- when do I draw the line and stay home?

My husband says “you will come home immediately upon reading anything on your ‘wikithing’ that even sounds like this is happening”

He is self employed- he can do that. I am the one who carries the insurance and has the steady paycheck. I think about this often and and I still have not come to any decision other than to watch the Wiki and go from there. I will keep collecting preps so that I -hopefully- will not have to make a last minute run on my way home.

So I guess I’ll be relying on all of you for my cues. One thing I had thought of- in my position I will be able to see if there are large unplanned allocations of milk, bread water and such all of the sudden. I have not found the right time to speak with my boss about my company’s pandemic plan- if indeed there is one….as it is a food business I suspect they have one. I would post that if I saw anything out of the ordinary.

Melanie, Dem and all- are there any particular things connected with the grocery industry that you can think of that I should watch for other than sudden unplanned allocations? (other than co-workers calling in left and right! (Though I seem to be the only person there who thinks about this- have not heard any talk at all.)

Dr C – at 17:31

Next month I’ll be going to the Governor’s Flu Summit (WA) and Gerberding of the CDC will be there, along with the state and local public health chiefs, business, & other government people. I will be listening closely for what they are considering the tipping points, and what their plans are when those points are reached. I expect there will be phases and corresponding actions. There is also the Clinician’s Alert system from the CDC listserv.

On ABC’s flu focus this week, I think it was on Nightline, there was a computer simulation for pandemic spread. It occurred simultaneously around 10–14 major metropolitan sites, spreading out in concentric circles, and they then followed transportation routes until the whole country turned color(red). I couldn’t find it again on the ABC News site, but there is another(non-motion) model showing the spread in 3 stills, scroll about half way down the page, given a single initial location, nationwide at 110 days, the ABC model with multiple sites showed nationwide at 60–90 days.

http://www.earthfiles.com/news/news.cfm?ID=1063&category=Environment

I’ll let you know what I find out at the summit.

Melanie – at 17:38

Dr. C,

Let us know what you learn. I tried to wangle an invitation to my state’s summit without any luch.

cinda, don’t count on your employer having a plan. I’ve spoken with the giant regional grocery chain in my area and they are completely clueless. Outbreaks will be regional and will hit different areas differently, so pay attention to the news.

Wayne – at 17:40

SARS and the talk of peak oil two years ago was what started me out with first buying a bicycle, and then going much more heavily into gardening and canning. A year ago the sudden increase in deaths in Thailand and Vietnam from avian influenza made me uneasy and that summer I began to screen heirloom garden vegetables for compatibility with our climate, so I could save seeds. That winter I considered and rejected active solar power systems (solar panels cost a good bit; all the accessories triple the cost). In the last six months I’ve acquired a hand-powered food grinder, and I’ve been doing like a lot of folks here - storing up essential hardware and putting food by.

Nothing goes to waste. My compromise with my SO is that anything we buy can be used anyway.

Something, by the way, most people in the world do anyway if they can, and few Americans have done for two generations without feeling like paranoids.

Dr C – at 17:52

PS. There is an excellent interview w/ Dr. Osterhaus on 3/10/06 on that site as well, containing some frank talk and some additional news to me (such as there have been 250 mutations since 1997). And since he is a veterinarian, has a number of insights into what to watch for in animals, that I wouldn’t have thought of.

http://www.earthfiles.com/news/news.cfm?ID=1063&category=Environment

And yes, I’ll keep you posted (no pun etc.) The summit is 4/14.

cinda – at 18:46

Melanie- A bit back there was a big summit that a lot of major companies attended. My chain’s future parent company (they will take over in June, we think) was on the list of comapnies attending. If they went to that should it follow that they are hatching a plan?

salthouse – at 20:02

We’re actually looking at multiple “tipping points”. The first thing we did was to create a set of action plans based on events. The first tipping point has already past. At this point human cases and deaths started to increase in a non-linear way (last fall). We began stocking up on items that would be difficult to get in a short-term situation, mostly bulk freeze-dried items and some medical items. Our second “tipping point” is H2H which will trigger a Costco run and a Cabela’s trip for more items. The final trip-wire for us is loss of containment of the initial H2H outbreak. At this point we load up and leave to ride it out in our cabin in Northern Maine.

3L120 – at 20:25

Part of the problem is most of America is hoping this will go away. We went through the previous flu epidemics and Y2K without disaster and want to assume this will be the same. Who is to say, maybe it will. BUT, if not, there are going to be a lot of disappointed people who head to the local Wal-Mart and find it empty. Most folks idea of a trigger is when ABC says ‘thousands are dying in xxx’.

Me, like most here, I am looking for that first notice of a highly probably h2h death, or a massive increase of deaths anywhere, bird related or not. By then, hopefully, I will have the masks (N95 and gas) and enough food and water to ride it out. Living in a semi-rural area, I can restrict my contact with neighbors and unwelcome outsiders, and believe me, when the food runs short, there will be unwelcome outsiders knocking on the door of anyone who seems to be prepared.

20 March 2006

Ceredwin – at 04:13

Cinda 18:46

The CIDRAP business conference was focused on continuity planning, getting educated about pandemics, how it would impact them, and figuring out how to keep their businesses afloat in a pandemic, such as telecommuting, operating with half a workforce, alternative suppliers and so forth. Some may be working together, but I think each was trying to find solutions for their own company.

Worried in the City – at 12:47

Cinda, Your being able to notice unusual increases in pandemic prep items would be extremely interesting to wikians. So far we want to know - but can only look at the carts around us and speculate.

People I have talked in person to go two routes in preping - canned food and/or dried food.

So I would expect prepers to buy : dried rice and beans canned meals, meats, beans and soups bottled water OTC meds like advil and tylenol.

We would be facinated by your observations!

Snap – at 15:21

I’m also the “Canary in the Coalmine” for my family. I don’t dare call this issue incorrectly, for fear that I will be ignored when it truly counts. I also know that some of my family won’t prep until I confirm to them it is sustained H2H. I would like to eke out every minute possible before the general alarm to give my family as much time as possible to either start or finish their preps.

I will be utilizing the opinions from the members on this site in helping make the decision if or when the time comes. This site consists of well informed people from all walks of life, I think this will be the best alternative to the WHO or CDC who surprisingly, have yet to offer me any of their confidential information (haha).

I know the Flu Wiki is normally free flowing but do the Mods have any plans to highlight (and consolidate if need be) any pertinent information if they feel H5N1 may have gone to the pandemic stage?

ricewiki – at 18:37

Good point, Snap…

Dem, Melanie — any plans to change the homepage or add links if there is suspected H2H? In other words, what will be your tipping points if any, the ones for the fluwiki?

21 March 2006

Preps in the City – at 12:43

Here’s a question. We live in a major city and have two small children. My father owns a house about two hours away in a resort town on a big lake. He recently bought a condo nearby for me and my wife and the kids to use when we go up to visit - as my borther and his wife also have a child and weekends can get cramped there. When we are not using it, he rents it out, so pre-positioning preps there is out of the question.

My wife thinks we should stay in the city as all of our preps are here. I worry about civil unrest, fires, etc. and think that with enough advanced warning (monitoring teh wiki for H2H in another country) I could rent a trailer from Uhaul and load our preps in and head for the condo. I think there would be less to worry about up there, but I don’t know. Anyone have any ideas?

Oremus – at 14:10

Try a local self storage place and pre position your supplies there.

Satago – at 14:18

Preps in the City, you’re right to worry about those things. Even if “civil unrest” doesn’t happen, and even if there aren’t fires with no firefighters and no one to call in an emergency, you’re still going to be in a congested place with a bad sickness going around. I mean, even if everyone in the city had a Nobel Peace Prize, you’ve still got The Bug to deal with. As a former city dweller (and again someday), I speak from experience. There’s a time to be right there in the middle of it all with everyone, and there’s a time to get out.

A self storage place is a good idea, but I wouldn’t keep all your eggs in one basket. Maybe keep your preps in boxes or suitcases that will be easy to move when you start smelling smoke.

Melanie – at 14:21

ricewiki,

That will be one of the questions we’ll be discussing at the Flu WIki summit in June.

Preps in the City – at 14:22

Oremus and Satago - thank you both. I need to find the proverbial “happy” medium. I like having all my preps here with me (in teh city) in case I don’t have time to rent a trailer and get out to the country. The storage unit is a great idea, but I worry about being able to get to it as well.

That’s what’s so darn tricky with this thing. We hope we’ll get a jump on knowing it is on the way in h2h form, but what if we don’t?

Oremus – at 14:42

Preps in the City – at 14:22 wrote:That’s what’s so darn tricky with this thing. We hope we’ll get a jump on knowing it is on the way in h2h form, but what if we don’t?

God grant me the serenity to accept the things I can not change, the courage to change the things I can, and the wisdom to know the difference.

Buzz – at 15:15

I haven’t the time to read all the way through the postings but felt I had to point out the following : http://www.who.int/csr/don/2006_03_21a/en/index.html Note that the article states “Interviews with several surviving family members have failed to uncover a history of direct exposure to dead or diseased poultry for several of the cases.”

It is the nature of epidemiological investigations that the follow-up interviews take a while and frequently the results are not conclusive. But in the meantime IF(big if)a given cluster is going H2H, there will be a delay in the news getting out. No health official wants to be the first one to declare that H2H has begun, and then be found to have over reacted too soon.

I am surprised that no one has pointed out this article in this string yet. We should all be watching these sites more closely. I know I do daily.

Buzz

Preps in the City – at 15:38

Buzz – at 15:15 - you are so right. If anything, we have seen foreign governments holding back information for fear of causing panic, hurting their poultry or tourism industries, etc. I have a very strong feeling that if and when I do finally hear of H2H, the best thing for me to do will be to rush right home and begin to self-quarantine with my family.

Can you imagine being stuck on a highway like those people trying to get away from hurricane Rita?

Buzz – at 15:54

Preps in the City at 15:38 Actually I am not that reactive. H2H may occurr in small clusters many times and still not go pandemic. I look at them as an indication to increase my surveillance of the various media sources I have identified. The WHO site I linked is one. CDC has another. I am always looking for more if anyone has other links to share. Since I am planning to retire in January ‘07 I am almost home free.

My wife and i have told the kids that they should plan to come up to our mountain retreat and weather the event with us. Only 2 have taken us up on it so far. It is their tipping point I am most interested in. I am preparing to have “late comers” isolate themselves here seperated from the rest of us untill they have gone through about 1 week to 10 days to assure they aren’t bringing the virus with them.

Birdie – at 17:42

I feel very sad for my kids when I know that my husband is a first responder and his job to his patients will always be there. No matter what I want to think this kind of thing comes with the territory. I am sure if there is vaccine available he will get it but aside from blowing him away with a hose attached to a bleach bottle what would I do? And if we did get it I would trust him to help us.

KayJayat 20:58

When considering how much time we may have when we do first hear of that ‘case zero’ or first confirmed H2H infection, that we in Canada had barely even heard the acronym SARS before we saw it loose and uncontrolled for months in Toronto and in Vancouver. SARS was not nearly as contagious as was first feared, although it did infect a few health care workers. If the first H2H case happens in say…Hong Kong, we would have maybe a day or two if this is really contagious, in the major cities. If it happens in Africa or rural parts of Asia, then we might have a week or two. Ultimately, who knows! I think we will know what the tipping point is when it happens. At least we are aware and getting ready. I can’t believe that some of my friends, who lived through the SARS episode in Toronto, still think I’m crazy.

KayJayat 21:05

One more thing, I mentioned to my husband, who studied microbiology at university, that there have been some suspected H2H cases already. He said that the virus may have mutated successfully to H2H transmission, in those cases, but not successfully enough to keep going beyond those cases. He said it will keep trying until it gets it right or just peeters out.

26 March 2006

On the fence but leaning… – at 23:25

Has anyone heard of a web site that would/could send out an email to subscribers when certain events happen? For instance, if WHO upgrades, a mail could go out. If a case of B2B shows up in N. America, a message goes out. I signed up for instant updates from CNN and MSNBC and although a few news stories have come up since, their auto mail never showed.

DennisCat 23:40

On the fence,

I use google news alerts. The key is to be specific in your key words. for example you might want to try: WHO phase flu

or something like that.

18 May 2006

a’Akova – at 21:59

re: Dr C – at 17:31

A quicktime movie of the simulation to which you refer can be found here: http://www.lanl.gov/news/images/avianflu.shtml

Interestingly, at 3 months, the map is still largely red indicating symptomatic cases abound.

19 May 2006

anonymous – at 11:24

I don’t know about others but stories like this one from Reuters have me motivated this am (05/19/2006) to go out and get more prep stuff:

Experts urge Indonesia to pin down bird flu source

I can’t say for sure how much of this chaos in Indonesia is incompetence, how much is ignorance and how much is the urge to ‘cover up’ but when you have experts like Guan Yi saying the Indonesian surveillance work is “too slow” and scarier “If it was a pandemic strain, we’d be finished”, well, let’s just say I’m getting my s**t together today and headed out to get more preps I need.

Besides the big key is we don’t know yet whether this is a pandemic strain (what is with Yi saying ‘was’ anyway???) but the reports do not look good.

x – at 11:38

I went out and got more lamp oil for my hurricane lamps and a duel fuel coleman lantern today from Walmart. I am seeing the writing on the wall. Food is good. Had oatmeal today for breakfast, with brown sugar and butter. I forgot how good oatmeal is and how cheap it is. The expiration date was July 2004 and it tasted fresh off the farm.

Janet – at 11:47

I am fairly prepper (probably 4 months worth), but will move into very high gear once I hear of multiple health care workers getting it from patients or if I hear that scores of people (50+) are being admitted to hospitals.

At that time, I will do my final prep of perishables.

nopower – at 15:13

I got kinda burned out on prepping for a while but the Indonesia cluster(s) kicked me into gear.

I’m at my limit for food, I will probably keep building my bottled water supply, and buying gadgets and comfort items as money permits.

The big thing for me will be confirmed sick HCW’s, I will probably do a large stockup on fresh/frozen items and bar the doors. If it turns out to be a false alarm then I can have a neighborhood BBQ. And go back to waiting.

23 May 2006

Rod Australia – at 01:17
ricewiki – at 02:07

Unfortunately i too am currently at a prep limit…. so i hope this (Indonesia/Romania/Iran) doesn’t go into high gear. I don’t think it will quite yet, but things are heating up for sure.

Nikolai---Sydney – at 04:13

I suspect the real secret is to NOT HAVE a ‘tipping point’ at all. That is, eliminate the NEED for a last-minute-flirtation with Death. Have a soft, safe, ‘slide off’ point.

Prep and prep and then trial your hardware, menues, details. Keep a permanent store of small banknotes, large coins. Have a rotated stock of ‘beer and cigarettes and chocolate’ type items. A high-rate turnover list for fresh produce, eggs, milk, breads, etc that you keep up to near maximum storage life for each item.

Next, do daily early morning monitoring, however briefly, of this Forum Page as the essential bare minimum checking. If no alarming new topics have been posted, go on with life for that day. Newspapers or tv news as you usually do.

Finally, arrange to ‘duck and cover’ for a day or two, or a weekend if things look incredibly hot but not fully confirmed. At the near extreme, phone in sick at work. Keep kids home from school. But regard this as precautionary, not panicky.

Then, if it does eventuate, tipping will be as easy and safe as sliding off a sofa.

FrenchieGirlat 06:22

cinda – at 17:26

I posted another post on the thread entitled: “Updates on Supermarket Shortages 2″. Quote: “And it would be interesting if those familiar with company results were to look at the profits made in the last three months by fast-moving-consumer-goods companies were up and up. That would show people are buying more (over and above a seasonal trend).” Unquote.

So, of course, if you see your allocations not just go/change suddenly, but also a gradual upwards shift towards essential food/survival items, that would be interesting. Especially if this is a new trend compared to the last two years. And if your records go back to the SARS period (February 2003 - June 2003), it would be quite interesting to make a comparison.

Or anyone connected with the food business, or suppliers of raw materials for food preparations…

lauraB – at 06:28

My dh runs a small soft drink company. There have been huge issues with getting sugar and the costs have gone way up. It is mostly driven by hurricane damage from last year. But, I have noticed that sugar and flour in my stores is often half empty, which is never the case this time of year. Usually it’s only around the holidays when people are doing their baking. Anyway, he’s got lots of connections to people who “mine” food data sales. I am going to ask him to check it out more. Let’s hope people are starting to get the message.

I agree with Nikolai - it’s tough to have one single “point”. I think it’s more fluid than that and being prepared now as best you can is what is required. One big news story that attracts attention, even if it isn’t really the “shoe dropping” could cause panic.

Jumping Jack Flash – at 07:07

The SARS episode a few years ago didn’t spark panic buying or SIP amongst the populous. I personally don’t think 99% folks will even think about SIP until they turn on the local news and see BF victims dying on the sidewalk outside over crowded lcaol hospitals.

FrenchieGirlat 07:16

JJF — at 07:07 — it didn’t spark panic buying or SIP amongst the populous, but among the educated or aware some of us did some preparations, not in panic but in planning different shopping loads, gardening seeds, etc. In Geneva, Switzerland, it became very difficult to buy gloves, disinfectants, pharmacists were being asked for masks which were unavailable, as well as OTC medicines. I work in an international organisation which has many workers, delegates and visitors, coming and going from the field and we were well aware that we might have to wear masks if SARS came to Switzerland. I was not the only one.

Eccles – at 07:20

Since I’ve never actually gone through a SIP in response to a global pandemic, I really have no idea what the actual onset of such an event might look like. I have no preset “tipping point”, but rather am continuously monitoring conditions and will respond with whatever I consider to be the most appropriate actions at the time.

Otherwise, you just do the equivalent of staring out the living room window waiting for the Boogie Man to come walking up to your door, and all the while he has been sitting on your couch just behind you.

x – at 07:56

One of the main signs I am watching for is the coincidental stock market sell off with an outbreak of H2H. I dont know if this is it, but Russia, Mexico, Brazil, Finland and the US are all seeing sell offs of between 4–15% over the last 9 days. The Russian market fell 8.5% yesterday and had to be closed. Watch the markets. I would move out of stocks into cash for awhile. Personally, I moved my portfolio to silver.

anonymous – at 07:58

lauraB – at 06:28

If you follow agricultural reports, you will hear that since US farmers aren’t making as much money off the price of wheat, they have planted less this year (and less wheat = less wheat for flour). And US farmers who are planting wheat are getting a late start, especially in the ‘corn belt’ part of the country, due to prolonged weather that prevents planting (i.e. too rainy and cold).

Corn prices are also higher in part due to the demand for more ethanol for energy purposes and some of what farmers would be planting this year has switched types - less human edible tasty sweet corn and more field type starchy corn (better for E15 and E85 fuels).

I don’t know about the progress on this year’s sugar crops (which in the USA can come from cane and beets).

lbb – at 11:25

I actually liked NW’s tipping point (“My tipping point will be when Bush says the current FEMA director R. David Paulison, “Pauli, you’re doing a heck of a job”.”). It sounds flippant, but honestly, it’s what Richard Hatch, the author of MASH, referred to as a goofus test: if you have someone (or a collection of someones) who can be relied upon to do the wrong thing or give bad advice or tell you a lie, that’s as good as having someone who’s honest, competent, and clued-in. You just have to read the subtext.

The more I think about it, the more I believe that a “tipping point” is a bad paradigm to use here. I’m a whitewater kayaker, which is an activity involving some risk, and the question arises again and again in the sport about how to recognize a dangerous situation that you need to walk away from. What I’ve learned through hard and painful experience, not just in whitewater kayaking, is that [u]you almost never get a red light[/u]. You almost never get a single, clear, unambiguous sign saying “don’t go here”. What you get instead is a series of yellow lights, none of which signals death all by itself. This becomes very obvious if you read reports of fatal accidents. In so many cases, there was no single clear indicator of fatal danger; instead, there were a series of indicators of added risk. In hindsight it’s relatively easy to add them up, but it takes a bit more imagination to remove the hindsight, place yourself in that situation, and try to see just where the yellows added up to a red.

So, im summary, I don’t have a tipping point; I’m going by yellow lights, and there are too many of them to list — some I don’t even know about yet. The goofus test is definitely one of them. I read the news. But I’m not going to try and create some kind of early warning system. My ability to recognize a yellow light was gained in a hard-knocks school, it’s as much instinctual as analytical, and I think it’s my most reliable guide in this.

Eccles – at 12:24

Increasing Noise and Confusion is itself a Yellow Light

Picking up on lbb’s points. My involvement in aviation provides the same experience with “yellow lights” as lbb describes. In a plane crash, or a spacecraft launch accident, there is often a collection of multiple issues that when taken by themselves are not particularly horrendous, but when combined in the correct order and grouping result in a nasty business.

I have been struggling (as have we all) for the past several days to try to listen through an increasing noise level to try to understand who is being described, how many actual cases, and what about that lady in the UK.

At this point, I think my response is to say that the fact that it is no longer possible to keep all of the victims/localities straight, and it is no longer possible to track what each of the agencies is saying/doing about each of the incidents represents, in and of itself, a valuable piece of input. I believe that I am personally going to shift from trying to undertand the statuses of each individual case, and instead, just monitor the “Noise Level” associated with PF51. The higher the noise level, the more attention it will need to have paid to it.

Since this issue is likely to be “managed” more heavily as things become more serious, I will also be looking for unwarranted sudden decreases in the noise level. This would indicate that information is being blocked, and would itself be another data point that needs to be paid attention to.

DemFromCTat 12:33

close longish thread… open new one.

Hillbilly Bill – at 12:41

No matter what our individual “tipping points” may be, and Eccles is absolutely right in stating that since we have never been through this situation we have no experience to evaluate the data, the important aspect is that we get as ready as we possibly can. Sure, I would like another big run through my favorite discount grocery store, but I can’t count on getting that. Actually, the things I need most right now will not be what frantic shoppers will be after, at least not right away.

Scaredy Cat – at 12:50

One of the “yellow lights” I watch for is the reaction of certain posters here on Flu Wiki. When Monotreme said something last week about “bracing for impact” THAT got my attention. Bracing for impact here. Still living, but alert.

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