The government can’t be trusted. WHO can’t be trusted. Places like Africa and India are boiling pots where the Flu may be simmering. Monitoring in some of these places is non-existent. A person can be asymptomatic for 2–4 days and could get off a plane from God knows where as a carrier.
At some unknown point, a person will choose to isolate their family. So my question is how does a family make this decision?
My initial guess is that when the news reports indicate that some large number of people (200+) anywhere in the world have been hospitalized with suspected flu, it is time to isolate the family for those who choose this option. Is there a better way to decide?
You will not be informed of truly efficient h2h for at least a few days, even if the authorities are certain that it is occurring. So what we have to look for are increasing clusters prior to that efficiency. (And hope that is the way it evolves).
So I would look for a sudden news blackout accompanied by a “rumor” such as we saw a few days back from Indonesia, but worse this time. Then you hole in. There may be a couple false starts using this method, but that way you can try out your “system”.
JoeW: It depends on where you live. If in Asia, you’re going to have to rely on rumors (unfortunately) because by the time any official information is available, it will be too late. In the US, there will be a little more time, probably. Personally, I’m looking for signs that a hospital closes down because of too many cases of respiratory disease, whether identified as H5N1 or not. Hospitals are likely to amplify spread of efficiently transmitted H5N1.
Everyone would love to get that decision correct.
Fear of getting it wrong keeps me from my sleep. It might not be that large a cluster as you describe, but suddenly smaller confirmed clusters including a plane’s passengers’ destinations.
Schools who aren’t ready to let students study at home may be a problem. Peoples’ finances and work will be a problem. Catching the virus is a bigger problem.
We’ll have to try and use our best judgement, use the time we have, and meanwhile start brushing up on our better hygiene.
in america look at hospitals an schools
http://drbobgleeson.typepad.com/bird_flu/
I watch this site each and every day. Dr. Gleeson really seems to have a calm, cool head and promises to “wave the flag” if he registers anything and everything as this disease continues to progress. I have found myself trusting in his analysis. When he raises his current yellow signal to the next stage, which is a flashing yellow signal, I know to increase my preparations.
Take a look at the site, if you have not already. Let me know what you think. Again, he seems to be a calming and logical voice during this time of rumors and non-transparency.
P.S. I also look to Dr. Niman, but I think he has a particular “slant” - one that I hope is wrong in that he is convinced that this virus is already mutating and recombining and that is could be well on its way towards a pandemic. I listen and absorb everything he is saying, but it is very technical and I tend to panic after reading his accounts. I then go to Dr. Gleason’s site and he seems to make a little more sense of it and gives me the security that we will, more than likely, have a four week “heads-up” before the virus hits the US.
I like the rumor idea and the hospital closing idea. They seem like good signs to me. Flu Wiki and its rumor pages might be a good place to keep track of what is going on. Perhaps it deserves more attention as we get closer to some possible pandemic.
Montotreme make a good point re where you are. I have some family near Wash DC and its airports. I think this is a very “hot spot” and would want the kids out of there the most quickly. We live in Ohio far from the international airport (yeah we have em) so we have more time.
Thinking from a community perspective, I wonder if there is some way to get a knowledgeable, competent person to track rumors and post on FluWiki. With the recent (well deserved) press attention I bet there are (or will be) many more people accessing page.
Is there a competent person who could post something on the top right re “professional assessment of rumors” (is there such a thing)? Not trying to change things here, just thinking aloud. I suspect that rumors are going to be the trigger and someone to put them down as well as verify (to the extent possible) may be an important aspect of saving some lives, the more competent in virology, epidemiology the better.
BTW while I am on it, I used to write software and it seems that the author of the flu wiki software could be contacted to make Dem job a lot easier. A short subroutine could be added that would have a default word wrap for full screen presentation. Might help with the tiny url prob. Just trying to make your job a little ea
Gleeson site is a nice site. However, I prefer those who specialize in this topic such as Effect Measures http://tinyurl.com/alrkv (I have no investment in FlueWicki) so I can advertise – right. For recent news I use NewNow http://tinyurl.com/92prv and Ifu.org http://tinyurl.com/g3uey are also front runners in my book. I know these sites are locted other places on the Wiki but sometimes its nice to have them right in front of you to check them out. Anybody have better sites?
JoeW- I have found it is helpful to check out the goverment sites, if available, and also major news sources of the particular country. These vary, of course, depending on what country you are looking for info for. Sometimes you can find reports from these sources that don’t make it to the news aggregators.
Is there a way for us to determine which hospitals are full and not taking any more patients?
I feel that we are in almost on “information overload” state versus not getting enough information. The trick seems to be what is factual and what is rumor. With updates coming every 5 minutes on alot of the above mentioned sites, the news is coming in fast and furious. Again, my problem is not that I don’t receive information but rather that I don’t react to reports of multitudes of people being tested, hospitalized, presumed dead…..alot of which turn out to be rumors.
I honestly feel that we will see the pandemic “unfold” before our eyes (as long as we have them opened). I don’t think it will be overnight, but will be over several months with tons of rumors and false alarms mixed in with some very valid, important movements in the disease (validated multiple clusters, validated scores sick and hospitalized, etc, etc). We will have warning and those of us who have prepped will be grateful that we have the time to “top off” what we need versus starting from scratch.
This is the beauty of the Internet…we know things as they are happening. I do believe that there is not full disclosure at this point from many countries (China, India), but they won’t be able to hide things much longer. The truth will become very “visual” and “measurable”. So, Peej, I would recommend spending your time watching the news, continuing to prep, and not worry about needing to do our own investigating. Fortunately or unfortunately, the Internet will bring the bad news right to our doorsteps.
I think the first sign will be a rumor, but if you post a rumor on this site, unless you post it with supporting documentation your report will probably be dismissed as wild speculation.
So we’ll need to wait until the mainstream press reports something the next day. Of course the initial mainstream reports we’ll get the next day will include the following official statement — “Authorities stress that there is nothing to be concerned about. We can confirm that a number of sick people are showing up to emergency rooms this week. However we have absolutely NO indication that there is any bird flu or anything else to be concerned about in the US at this time. In fact initial tests have found that the few patients that have been tested do NOT have the bird flu.”
So we’ll need to wait until there are several hospitals full of patients. We might find out it has started a week after the fact. With any luck only a small fraction of the population will have been exposed by that time.
Dr. Michael Ryan of WHO:
“What we haven’t seen is sustained efficient human to human transmission. We have not seen chains of infection. And of that we’re sure. And that’s what we need to look out for,” says Dr. Ryan.
“We won’t have time, possibly, at the beginning of a pandemic even to get laboratory confirmation. It may take days to get laboratory confirmation,” says Dr. Ryan. “We may have to make this judgment on the basis of the existence of a cluster that’s spreading quickly. And that signal will be very strong. You’ll see the disease extend very quickly from two to four to ten. To 20. To 30, 50, and beyond number of… And when you start to see that mini explosion of cases, we’re going to have a very, very short time in which to do something about that. Very short.”
W David Stephenson – at 17:51
Boston Globe article today on the WHO avian flu lab contains quote from Director Michael Ryan, MD that when H5N1 mutates to cross animal-to-human barrier, “We’re not going to have much warning … One day, two days, maybe three, if we are extremely lucky. Once contagious among humans, the virus will spread like a tsunami. There will be the flash point — probably in Asia, perhaps somewhere else — followed by waves of infection that would hurtle around the world.”
So the nature of Dr. Ryan’s “flash point” is increasingly well-known and watched for. If and when the first flash point is observed, it will be only slightly less sensational news-wise than a nuclear bomb having been detonated on a Western city.
After that, the world will be on high alert to evidence of spreading contagion. I’d expect a sudden outbreak of flu tracking maps in newspapers, on television and on the internet. The maps will necessarily lag real events to some extent, but they (could) be good general indicators. How good they turn out to be will depend on the efficiency of reporting and recording mechanisms. WHO has already mentioned a system of global reporting and tracking that they might administer from their “bunker” in Geneva.
People with “public” lives will disappear prior to the acquisition of knowledge by the public of what is happening. Watch what happens to the Senate and House in the US and also state government officials. Many will head to government bunkers in the US like Raven Rock.
The government has already said, time and time again, that we will be ‘on our own’. Stated, in fact, to the Mayor’s conference in DC as a ‘general disclaimer’. #1 rule in Gov’t today is always cover the “L” word.
Liability.
Problem with the flash point idea is the incubation period, which may be as long as 7 days. Seven days is an eternity when it come to global travel. Once that flash point has been identified, the virus may already have spread two or three rings of individuals beyond. If any one of those individuals was a global traveller, we can forget about any possibility of slowing it down.
I completely, but respectfully, disagree with Idle Thoughts-18:57. People in public life think their bullet-proof. They’ll die or get sick like the rest of the unprepared. And that wouldn’t be a very helpful method anyway, unless you lived across the street from a senator and happened to notice his beemer in his drive when the Senate should be in session.
Watch the news. When the reporters think they have the story of the decade, no one will be able to hold them back from reporting on sick people and people dying!
Everyone on this list will probably have our own “flash point” depending on what our finances dictate, where our families are geographically, what our jobs are, how “exposed” we will be both at work and socially.
I hope we are able to maintain internet contact here on the wiki and report to each other when we are going “red alert” or even for that matter, when we start our last minute preps- our “yellow alert” so to speak. Don’t forget when things get hinky, to take that couple of minutes to alert your friends, and fellow preppers here on the wiki of what you have heard and why you are upping your alert level. We’re all in this together boys and girls!
The bird flu has already jumped the species barrier. It has been reported that it can infect every human organ including the brain. What it dosn’t have is the ability of sustainable transmission. Yet.
Yes, those “public” people may think their “bullet-proof” but I’d be willing to wager that some of them already have their “instructions”. And, with respect also —Nemo at 19:43-- and trepidation, PanFlu will be strongly in motion by the time we see mainstream reports of sickness and dying.
NEMO,
People in public life have been through about the same amount of pain as the rest of us. My congressman went through a very public and very ugly divorce a few years ago and he was plainly hurting.
The proximity to power usually changes people, but they still bleed.
I check this site every day, “Last 50 changes” and I scan the threads knowing that someone with their finger to the pulse will post a new thread entitled “This is it!” or something like that. I’m counting on the participants on this site to reach a more or less consensus that it’s time to batten down the hatches.
I will not count on anyone with this but my gut feeling triggered with a few facts or only one fact from a trustworthy source. That excludes a lot of the internet rumor mills as well as most the associated internet figures with tunnel vision and personal agenda. But I do my best to further spin my web of information channels around the globe to get any fact or observation as early as possible. Most boards like this would be very helpful in theory but not the way they stand at the moment, they are not representative and too few active professionals in any of them. That could change over time. If we have enough time.
So when you do get the news, what are you really going to do? Stop going to work? Stop dealing with the public. Until it’s a ALL out pandemic, you can’t do anything but hope it doesn’t effect you. It’s kinda like the Boogie Man. Are you going to hide under your bed so he won’t find you ( put your so called life on TOTAL hold )? The world is at much unrest now a days and Mankind may be headed for the route of the Dinosaurs ( have you seen any of those lately )? So we can all prepare but at the same time, what are you preparing for. We are all going to die and No one knows how or when. Live,Love and be Happy the best you can, until the End!!!
Bullet take a deep breath….let’s not go there. We have a lot of smart people working on this. Mankind made it thru in 1918 and we’ll make it this time as well….(all said with love)
Im not taking ANY chances with my family….
It think when it hits…the internet is going to get real popular real fast.
Gov. said, “you will be on your own”…so does this means all bets are off as far as laws…meaning specifically, are we to arm ourselves to protect ourselves….they are saying stock up on food and water…but how about stocking up on weapons to protect ourselves…don’t get me wrong, I don’t want to get “trigger happy”…and I would venture to say almost all those coming to this site aren’t either…but think back to Katrina how hoolums took to the street and created havoc…people couldn’t be rescued at times because of them…so, the question to our gov. officials is …will there at least be policing by law enforcement…or will this turn into the “wild, wild west” where each men protects his own property?
When does a pandemic begin?. When ignorance is choosen as a viable alterative to responding to the reality of a situation. Pandemics occur. We are not immune to them. We are not immune to the collective effects of our ignorance. We forget to remember we are as human as those before us. And those after us. Who will judge our actions of this time differently than we allow ourselves to judge them.
For Nanita, “The Horseman on the Roof” is an intense but beautiful movie taking place during a cholera epidemic. It gives one insight to how a vicious crowd can act. I think the best thing to do is to hunker down and make one’s domicile look unattractive (Beware of Dog or “We have dying birds here, please stay out” signs) — drawn curtains, locked front door, stinky stuff (skunk scent?) sprinkled up the front walk — all of these things can redirect a gang to go further down the road without you having to shoot some hungry ten year old.
Some people may think they are ready to die since we’re all going to die someday anyway, rather than prepare against a disaster, but, many of them seem to change their minds when it’s too late.
(Dinosaurs are still here; some evolved into birds.)
Any influenza pandemic will become “all-out pandemic” in a matter of days, given the travel “web” hourly, and H5N1 does not sound like a way anyone would want themselves or their family to go.
I think unless it starts in / gets to your area the very first day or two, you’ll probably be able to get some sort of heads-up that seems alarming enough, before the probably-late official pronouncement.
watch the wiki
What are everyone’s main sources for bird flu info right now?
All I do is google “bird flu” on google news to see the updates. I just discovered this site this week.
Maybe we could start a list of bird flu info sources and do an informal ranking amongst ourselves to get our readers all up to speed, on the same page.
ricewiki - my main source of news is the flu wiki News threads (fabulous folks track down loads of information and then post it). This site is by far the best that I have found in my quest for updated information, as well as some great sharing of information about prepping, good jokes, nice people and a few heated debates.
I am on a listserv for a CDC Alert system for clinicians, and there is an international infectious disease reporting system, but the data can be pretty raw: http://www.promedmail.org/pls/promed/f?p=2400:1000
There are also some international sites for veterinarians:
World Organisation for Animal Health http://www.oie.int/eng/en_index.htm
FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS http://www.fao.org/ag/againfo/subjects/en/health/diseases-cards/avian_cats.html
I think it’s important to try to get multiple points of view, and assess credibility. If there is a consensus of credible sources, it’s definitely time to pay attention.
Look for illness developing in HCW’s and their families.
I too google bird flu news and also check in regularly with WHO site for updates and govt updates as well - I agree multiple sites and updates are a must
What I would do (which is also what I am doing) is to study in detail the new and subsequent drafts of the WHO pandemic containment protocol and pay attention to their triggers, what is it that causes them to move massively into all-out containment.
I started a thread partly for that WHO draft March 17
Glad to have finally found some kindred spirits. Here’s an article that has triggered me to move into the next stage of preparations. What do you folk think about it?
http://www.birdflubeacon.com/BirdFluThreatensAmericanTroopsInIraq.htm
Welcome, but, old news? It was detected in Iraq two months or so ago.
It is still going to be tricky to pay attention and know when to start avoiding contagion if pandemic hasn’t been recognized and announced overseas, but arrives here via a few ariflights and begins to break out here too.
The compilation on that link was constructed sometime after March 7, 2006.
The key statement
Here is the real cause for concern: There were no infected poultry found to cause the deaths. While a World Health Organization representative, Dr. Naeema al-Gasseer, has officially denied that human-to- human transmission has occurred, she has acknowledged that to date the confirmed human infections have not been tracked to infected poultry. There have been reports of confirmed or suspected infections in three widely separated areas of the country: Northern and Southern Iraq, and area both outside and inside Baghdad. Infected poultry were not reported in Northern or Southern Iraq, but were found outside Baghdad in Daraya.
Any update on these facts?
Note the recent mumps scare. It took only days to travel hundres of miles. My guess is that maybe some of our troops in Iraq may bring the BF home with them. Can the military take blood tests as part of a debriefing before sending them home? That might help contain spreading as well as serve to notify us. I agree that gov officials, especially elected ones and their top campaign contributors will “disappear” without notice. A press blackout will be notice. Of course we don’t know when or how the National Guard may be called out, but seeing as how our president said that he thinks quarantine will work, large movements of Guard troops, or Guard members being called up and not knowing why will be a local signal. Non-essential personnel at government offices and hospitals will probably be sent home, maybe without being told why. Watch for things like this, they are good indicators that something is up.
Yes, I am thinking about the recent mumps spread myself. I have not been a documented case (but the symptoms were classic), and bet there are a bunch of people that haven’t been documented in my area. Most tend to tough it out at home instead of going to the doctor. I was infected and didn’t know it for quite some time. I thought it was a weird very bad flu until I saw a report on TV about it and put two and two together.
My only idea of when it may have happened was when we were in a store and I remember hearing a child coughing in a way that told me that child should have been home instead of being in a WalMart supercenter. The poor child was coughing so bad that I remarked on it at the time to my husband.
We have decided not to go to town anymore on a Friday afternoon/evening when the place is packed.
Good points as to how to tell. I’m thinking that we live out in the country, and are so out of touch, that we might only realize it when we notice there are not very many people in town when we go in. I will check in here often, just in case it is mentioned here first.
When HCWs get sick and start dropping like flys is one of the WHO criteria
To put people at ease. I attend the police crime prevention meetings monthly in my area. I am aware that they have suits and bio masks to wear. There will be law in order. As long as they don’t get sick at home. But they are protected at work that i know. I saw the suits…..
One of the signs may be a pull-out of the U.S. army in Iraq unexpectedly, or ahead of time etc…
“One of the signs may be a pull-out of the U.S. army in Iraq unexpectedly, or ahead of time etc… “
Um…does this count?
Very interesting… published today, too. Says by end of this year they are pulling out over half the troops there,…. that’s significant, I’d think.
mountainlady – at 04:13
We will likely have the most telling compendium of terrain changing reports here if the internet remains viable. With all the sentinels scanning constantly, I’d expect to see many of the early signs and trends listed on this wiki.
Where are you located?
NS1 – at 06:16
In NW Arkansas, in the middle of the mountains. We get into town only once or twice a month, since we only go in for supplies, and work at home.
ricewiki, “half of the troops by end of the year” is hardly a
significant statement concerning a possible pandemic.
Remember: “no one knows the time, when it starts”
>ricewiki, “half of the troops by end of the year” is hardly a significant statement concerning a possible pandemic. Remember: “no one knows the time, when it starts”
Yup. “Half the troops by the end of the year” is more closely associated with the GOP being wiped out by mid-terms than it is with the human race being wiped out by a pandemic :-)
bump
Old thread - Closed to increase Forum speed.