I have read so much lately and one report hints towards this year and then you read the next news report and they say 5–10 years..but as preppers what do you think? My guess is with all the new information coming out in the MSM, so much being set up, that it will hit in March 2006…Maybe even at bit sooner..and I don,t say this to panic anyone..I would just like to know anyones elses thouths, if they care to share them.
My best guess is between Feb and April of 2006. This is based on what I have read and best estimates from virologists.
here’s a good link from today’s Ny Times… some big names. I know a few who think less than 15% in the next 3 years. Some think never.
Although the predictions are all over the map, the important thing is that this is a low risk but huge impact situation that we’re not prepared for nationally, whatever folks are doing individually.
I expect to hear much much more at the local and state level in the near future. preparation may come in the form of education, or formal programs, like CA’s CERTS using citizens to aid earthquake victims. Whatever it is, preparation is relevant without guessing about when.
Huh?
DemFromCT’s link makes me feel like we’ve all been over-reacting.
10 years? 2025? Maybe I should have held off on getting Tamiflu scips filled. Hmm…
What I’m saying here is, I’m on my way out the door to go to Costco. Quick, someone tell me if I’m spending way too much $$$.
All over the map means all over the map. It’s not likely coming in the next 3 months. But what is coming is the presence of H5N1 in poultry and wild birds. That’ll spread all over the world in 6 months.
Once that happens, several things then get to be issues:
I wish folks would tone down the “when and how many deaths’ stuff. That’s not knowable and that’s why the guesstimates are all over the place. What is knowable is that we need to rebuild our prepredness regardless of when and how many. We have time… panic not. But we also have a hell of a lot of work to do. If yoiu knew it were within 5 years you should be doing the same things as if you didn’t know. Because it might be some other virus, some other thing.
In a way, this is a race… do we develop vaccine capacity and new methods of production before we develop pandemic? What if we lose? What do we do?
reading the above, tamiflu is the least of it. Do whatever you want with it.
Scaredy Cat, the best advice is plan for a local disaster. If in CA think earthquake. If in CT think blizzard. If in KS think tornado. Then plan accordingly. Something might happen, and prerparedness is not a waste of money.
But don’t go to Costco and buy enough water for 6 months unless you can afford, store and need.
www.intrade.com (a trading exchange for Politics, Current Events, Financial Indicators, Weather & other Unique Contracts) has Bird Flu at 40% before next summer.
dem has some good points scaredy cat.
preps wont go to waste, you never know what emergency will come up.
are you spending too much?, i dont know, if you can afford it prep all you can, cause you can always rotate out the stuff.
also there are too many factors on when, if and how bad a coming pandemic would/could be. to me things dont look too good, a pandemic may well indeed be on its way soon, but then again who am i to say, i just observe and digest the info thats out there.
i had an ice storm last year, we couldnt leave the immediate area for days (downed trees and power lines and poles everywhere), so we were basically isolated in the house with no power. It only lasted 4 days, luckily i have a coal/wood stove for heat, and so i cook cook on it too. there was no power to my well water, but i had some stored for drinking but none for cleaning, washing up or toilet. i melted snow for that, which took for ever. but the point is to prepare for anything.
the worse part was the kids, being bored, that is something that needs prepping for too. :-)
Baby Steps, remember, Baby Steps (With apologies to Bill Mutrray and “What about Bob.”)
The foundation for any preparedness is a 72 hour pack,regardless of your locale, with the bare bones minimum you need to ride out a major, life altering event for that length of time. I can’t go into detail as to what should be included,(lots of sites are dedicated to this), but there are plenty of places to order an inexpensive starter kit-Emergency Essentials is a great place, low cost, fast service and educational materials on their site- http://beprepared.com/Default.asp .The Red Cross sells them ,as well. Late to the party but welcome, nonetheless, is the Feds site, Ready.gov- http://beprepared.com/Default.asp . Build it one component at a time (water, food, shelter, etc.) with each trip to your favorite Big Box store. The basics will fit in a daypack when you start, and over time, add to it-comfort items, recreation, items you replace with better quality ones as money allows. I’ve finished one for every member of the family (five) and are now packed in Extra Large Eddie Bauer Duffels at about a hundred pounds each-but its taken years. Customize it to whatever you are woried about-for the purposes of this site, maybe a few N95 masks and a handful of gloves, then add more. Many have an overwhelming sense of dread because they can’t have everything on hand right now. A few masks for each member of the family can give a great sense of comfort, just do it, on whatever level you can. Here’s an Barry Crockett’s excellent book on what can go into it, for the do it yourselfer: http://beprepared.com/product.asp?pn=EB%20K200 . The author has items starred as the basi necessities, and others ‘as time and need allow’. Its a great way to achieve peace of mind in any situation. I live 50 miles from the Yellowstone supervolcano; am I concerned? Nope-I can get across the country with what I have in my pack. Bird Flu? Nope, will use the same masks I’d for the volcano (Now, if both hit, I’m screwed.). The 72 hour pack is a great way to build the preparedness mindset-its quite addictive. Now my relatives get preparedness items-things that can fit in a pack, if they so chose.
If you don’t have N95 masks, use surgical masks. if you don’t have those, use cowboy bandanas (very stylish). Don’t think that if you haven’t got the best masks on the market by Friday, your family is doomed. Bandanas can be washed, N95 can’t be worn for very long.
If you keep poultry, that’s a different story, or if you’re an RN, you might need something different. But maybe the best advice is the above… prepare for 3–4 days of no power, isolation and then go from there.
In a pandemic:
Stay home if you’re sick. learn to treat yourself (see the pandemic guides). Wear a mask if you have to go to the doctor. Practice now, if you want, or just educate yourself for what you would do.
psyche, note your link is that “bird flu will be confirmed in the US”. That’s inevitable. Before 3/06, 40%. Before 12/05, 19%. You win if it’s in birds, but those are NOT the odds for a pandemic H2H, which I can not find on the site. Just a point of information.
WyomingBill RN….After Katrina and the “Thanks, GW for the N.O. fiasco show”, I made up,and distributed, enough backpacks with 72 hrs supplies for every member of my immediate family, including my grandson. Ours include Iosat, as in Southern NJ we are within range of any number of commerical nuclear reactors. (Imagine trying to get out of Jersey, a peninsula, in a hurry- go thru NY? Pa?…..ick) I am still listening to my family make jokes about my impending mental breakdown, etc,….but none do research on any possible scenarios that could occur…Where I live we have no volcanos, earthquakes, tornados, mudslides, etc and could get at most a Cat 3 hurricane, but live in heavily populated areas..imagine life here in a prolonged blackout? severe gasoline/ffod/medication/hospital bed shortages?…the word “riot” wouldn’t come close…so I have told them to engrave it on my gravestone if I die before any pandemic, all I know is that I can sleep better at night knowing they’re a little safer, especially my beloved 5 year old grandson, the love of my life.
Evening, Grace. In my neck of the woods, they say there are three sizes of town. Small towns have a population less than the speed limit. Medium-sized towns have a poulation between the speed limit and the elevation. Large towns have a population greater than the elevation. I live in a large town, I guess, though just barely. We have a Wal-mart supercenter, but to go to a Costco I travel two hours away, with about half of that trip remote enough to be out of cell phone range. Might pass a couple dozen cars on the way. Evacuation can be done in any direction and be accomplished fairly quickly. There are three maps in my 72 hour pack-County, State, and National maps, so at least to get out of the immediate area, I know all the back roads. A 25 year old daughter who lives in Arkansas I’ve kept similarly supplied. While she was in college I made sure she had some vials of Potassium Iodide, as well, as she lived a couple of miles from a nuclear power plant (great mids do thik alike). Am waiting for her to move out of an apartment into her first house before I back up the U-haul with her share of the year’s supply of food.
I’m a dyed in the wool Republican, as are nearly all Wyomingites; voted for GW twice but am disappointed with the dismantling of health care over the fast few years, the emphasis on bioterrorism research (Plague and Tularemia aren’t EVEN on my top ten list of things to worry about) having prevented a pandemic preparedness plan that the world would envy. Now we have a multi-hundred page plan that basically says our plan is to encourage you state and local folk to have a plan. Do they get paid well for this? I have materials from the UK-pandemic brochures for the public, more detailed education stuff for their docs; I asked one of our doc’s here what training/educational materials th’ve recieved from NIH, CDC, HHS-the answer was nothing. Total silence. Britain, Australia, Switzerland, Sweden all have Tamiflu stockpiles for up to 30% of there population and we have enough for two (but more’s on the way-except Roche say its first come/first served and we’re way down the list). But, thankfully we’re safe from Anthrax. And then there’s the fixation with improving everyone’s life with the military (and I’m not talking about Iraq, which I support)-arms confiscation in Lousiana, threatened quarantines, etc. Don’t get me started there… Oh, to stay on topic, I’ll guess, Oh, late spring. Now I can stay on the message board. I’ll be here through Tuesday, enjoy the veal…
As i spoke to a young friend of mine from vietnam. A few things occured to me.Of most importance was how small the world has truely become. Her mother who is a butcher in one of the open markets there,From what i’ve been told does not think that bird flu is any real threat. And becuase of this belief will continue handling chickens as before. This buthers mother who is in her eighties is gravely ill. The entirety of her family is deeply concerned.And many trips from her widely dispursed family members are being considered.To be sure Many members will return to see her.And back to thier new homes. One of which is to the city in which i live in. In consideration of the dire news which was annouced yesterday in vietnam. It gives one puase, At least long enough to marvel at what a small place the world has become.Or at least to question my own wisdom at ever allowing the illusion that it were ever any different.We are all in this together, Both the wise and the foolish, And any who find themselves bracketed in between.
I read that a one year old in Bangkok has recovered from the bird flu. They are saying that he had been playing in an area with sick chickens. The article said he recovered because he had only had a mild case, because he had only been infected with a small amount of the virus. Yeah right! Babies I do know. He was playing in an area of sick chickens…chickens poop everywhere….meaning that baby was probably face first in it. Babies fall, touch everything, eat anything….Could this virus be changing to a less lethal, more contagious strain? They say his grandmother was suspected of having the bird flu as well, but tests showed she had the common flu and has recovered as well. If that is true, how close a call was this? The two flus could have mixed or maybe they did????!!!
WyomingBillRN..sounds nice out there wide open places, you’d get claustrophobic here. As for local planners- got this last night from county health dept-
“In response to your e-mail below I can direct you to the New Jersey State Department of Health and Senior Services (NJDHSS) website for the NJ State Pandemic Flu Plan. http://www.state.nj.us/health/flu/pandemic.shtml As Camden County is under the guidance of the NJDHSS this plan reflects what the local jurisdictions would do in case of a pandemic. We do have local documents with detailed information regarding pandemic response, but they are not available to the public. Thank you for your inquiry. Meghan E. Jones, MSPH Epidemiologist Camden County Department of Health & Human Services Blackwood, NJ 08012″
Trust me the state plan is failry nonspecific re” local community roles.
Fluwiki has nice sample letter to council, list of thingsto review- do have meeting with mayor coming up,….
August,2006
Grace RN - looks like another case of every level of government looking to anothe level to do something. This threat is still not being taken seriously. I do think that you may be able to gain the nformation you seek (if it indeed exists) through a Freedom of Information Act request. There is no reason this information should not be available to the public. My gut feeling is that there is no “detailed” plan.
the detailed plan, otoh, may be hospital or region specific, and competing hospitals may not be anxious to share their plans publicly. The reality is that the plans may not be good enough, but there’s going to have to be public support as well as pressure if you expect your state and local health people to be able to deal with this.
That’s a hard truth. Local public health folks are not thrilled to have to take the lead on this with limited resources and a potentially hostile public.
tjclaw1, my husband and I agree with you re: doubting there even s a plan. I am planning to request the info thru Freedom of Records, will let the wiki know. I’ve asked my sisters in the area to try to get their county’s info, but they think I’m nuts re: avian flu preparation. I hope they’re right, but I am willingto do anything to protect my kids and grandson. Hisotry does repeat itself; until there is a rapidly obtained and distributed vaccine, pandemics will always be a threat.
Hi TJ and Grace!
I think I’ll make a trip to our courthouse too…but I’ll bet this place doesn’t have anything! (However, I’ll need a respirator to go in there, it’s so smoke infested you just want to gag.) The looks I got yesterday in the medical supply store, shopping for masks, were “that lady is sheer crazy!”
TJ, where did you get your 3M filters (for you furnace)? The ones that kill viruses?
Hi, Mom11, Am sending this link as an example for what can be bought from non-medical sources-I buy these when I go to Lowes every couple of weeks. Click the photo on the left-a seperate window will open. Look at the labeling on the extreme bottom left and you’ll see these are Niosh appproved N95 masks-adjustable noseclip, foam seals and very comportable. They’re virtually identical to the N95′s supplied to hospital workers for use with TB an other infectious disease patients, but are from the hardware store. Just over 20 dollars to the box of 20. Don’t expect fit testing from anyone but the infection control department at the local hospital, but unfortunately, they usually do that only for their own people.
http://www.lowes.com/lowes/lkn?action=productDetail&productId=75490-429-99485-10000&lpage=none
They’re available in a two-pack if you just want to try them for fit and feel before buying larger quantities-five bucks, here:
http://www.lowes.com/lowes/lkn?action=productDetail&productId=153354-429-99471-00000&lpage=none
Best to you and yours.
DemFromCt…I’m sure the local PH and OEM people don’t want “last minute newbies” trying to tell them what to do; and have no doubt they have a much better formal education than I do. Perhaps it is best to approach it as supplemental help, when the event is upon us. Is it a “can’t see the forest for the trees thing” at times? Couldn’t outside eyes look at planning from a different angle and perhaps see something they didn’t? For example, there was nothing specific about planning for extra deaths in the NJ state plan, so I am curious (makes me very morbid, I guess) what the concrete,local plans may be for pronouncing, removal, storage, autopsy, preparation and burial of large numbers/surges of deaths. Pronouncement of deaths at home can take a long time, as there are limited medical examiners office staff, especially at night, to go throughout the county to pronounce suspicious deaths, and waiting longer than normal for a funeral director for removal of a body from home or hospital could pose an exposure risk of bodily fluids to family and staff. Not to mention extra morgue space, and heavier use of electricity in the summer. Ick, lousy topic to even think about; rotten realities of life, and death. Remember the problem with AIDS patients years ago, when the funeral directors didn’t want to embalm them? Would like to know if they’ve been brought up to speed on this, although they routinely use far more precautions now than they did pre-AIDS.
Mom11,
I got the 3M furnace filters at Wal-mart. They run about $12–13, but are supposed to last for 3 months. Several other people I know have started using them and are very satisfied. My dad told me about them.
I got my Orek air purifier today. It is supposed to trap and kill bacteria and viruses. I put it upstairs and if I really like it I’ll probably get a second one. I read that they are starting to use them in preschools and finding the kids don’t get sick so much and it is better for those with allergies or asthma.
Here are the masks I ordered for my 4yo - can’t be used for kids under 3 http://www.masksnmore.com/kichfama.html
This is what I got for me and my hubby: http://www.masksnmore.com/3m18mema.html
This company was recommended by 3M and I got my order in just a couple of days. I can’t stand the cone masks. My dad always made me wear one in his autobody shop to protect from paint fumes, and they are extremely uncomfortable, hard to breathe through, and always fog up my glasses. I have a pair of clear safety glasses I used in a college chemestry class that I plan to wear while taking care of any sick family members.
Thanks Wyoming Bill and TJ!
You guys are so much help! I’ve been trying to decide what to add to my stockpile next and sometimes it is overwhelming. My 4 year old bi-polar++ baby is wound tight tonight and I”m so tired! I wish the 4 meds he takes to sleep would kick in. Must be the weather, the hughest storms going through here since I’ve lived in Ky.! Ignoring them and trying to plan for the “Bird Flu Storm.” Isn’t this pathetic…300 gallons of gas and a big, shiny new generator…and if the power goes out, I don’t know how to use it!!! Too busy planting potatoes in my sunroom!
Those Oreck air purifiers, do they need to be a certain size…my house is large. Do you put one on each floor or per room, sleeping areas?
I think I’ll get some of those safety glasses too….the list goes on and on…
Katie, bar the door. Here’s a post from the boxun news service reported in tonight’s Iflu.org (via H5N1) of 310 DEAD in China from bird flu, many H2H.
Now it’s clear why China’s finally letting WHO in.
Mom11, well, my house has 3br upstairs, and kitchen, living, dining downstairs. I think two for my whole house will probably do the trick. You’re not supposed to put it in a bedroom where it will pull “dirty” air over the sleeping person. I have a big open staircase, so I put it at the top of the stairs. I just hooked it up tonight, but already the smell of bacon and eggs (dinner) is gone. I also got a free refrigerator air purifier and an electric cordless vacuum with it. Love the vacuum cleaner because I hate dealing with a cord. It’s pretty cool. I’ve used Orek vacuum cleaners for over a year now and think they get up a lot more dirt than most. Just my 2 cents, but they are very expensive. The air purifiers can be bought cheaper, though, through their outlet as “factory reconditioned.”
Kleenex also makes an antiviral tissue that is sold in bulk at Sam’s Club. I provided some of them along with large hand sanitizer to my daughter’s preschool. I’ve placed hand sanitizer next to each kleenex box in my house. My 4yo thinks it’s neat to use. We’re stressing not sharing drinking glasses, etc., and she’s taking her own drinking bottle to preschool.
I’m also starting to clean a lot more with bleach to try to stay on top of the germs/viruses.
I got the safety glasses at a college bookstore, but they probably have them at Ace Hardware.
I also enjoy sharing our ideas.
Have you ordered anything from Walton’s? I was going to but the shipping was outrageous.
Thanks TJ!
This stupid house is over 5000 sq. ft, too big! Think I might try a purifier at the top of the stairs too. We came out of the docs. today with another new asthma med, another allergy med. and a prescription for 3 Spirometer (sp?) That is something the kids blow in to see how much air they are getting.
Found a Mr. Heater at TSC for $69.
Last year when the flu went through Indiana, my daughter told me some of the schools there had the kids wipe their desks down with the anti-bacterial gel, before and after they changed classes. They did it in schools that had children with immune problems. Sounds like a good idea for all schools.
Do you have Targets? They have been carrying (in their $1 aisle) really nice, colorful 16oz. water bottles. Walmart has them also. We use them everyday. After seeing the boys sharing dirty cups, at the facility my son is in, I bought them each one. They like them, they are catching tadpoles in them! Oh yay! Just can’t win!!!
I haven’t ordered from Walton’s. They have lots I’m plannig to order. I wanted to call a number I wrote down off of the Providence website last night first, but appts. appts. today! It seems Henderson, Tenn. has one of their food storage places. That would be about an hour drive for me and I was wondering what I could get there. I was told that it would be OK to go there. Was wondering if they might have some of the dried foods and storage containers.
Woah, 5,000 sq ft - I think our is about 3,000. You might want to talk to Orek before ordering to see what they recommend. We also struggle with allergies, and I’m sure “Spike” our 20 lb cat doesn’t help. We do have him shaved once a year and that does help.
Love the tadpole story. Caught my 4yo putting ladybugs in the cookie jar this weekend because they needed a “house.” Ugh!
We have Farm & Fleet here with Mr. Heater for about the same price, but I was thinking about getting the bigger one for a little over $100. Sometimes Amazon.com has them on special with free shipping too. Really gotta get into gear with that as the cold weather is upon us and we are more likely to have power outages due to ice. There is a Target near where I work and they have some nice emergency backpacks I’ve thought about getting. The proceeds go to benefit the Red Cross.
I was also thinking about calling the Providence - Church of LDS branch in Naperville, about an hour from here to see if I can get any bulk goods there. I can’t believe that living in the heartland there is no place to buy this stuff bulk.
I ordered 1/2 hog today, processed it will cost about $120 and will get us through the winter.
I did get some dehydrated mushrooms and beef base at Sam’s Club last week. I’ve been stocking up on canned goods at Aldi. Last week I saw a woman there buying cases of rolled oats and canned goods and I was dying to ask her “Bird flu?”
My husband still thinks I’m nuts. Oh well. Even in the event of a bad snow storm or someother unforseen emergency, I want to make sure we have enough supplies to be comfortable.
Have you thought about a “corn” burner to heat your house? My sister’s inlaws just put one in their house for about $4,000 to help with the heating bills. I think it only heats the downstairs of their house comfortably, but I think it would do much better than Mr. Heater. Wish I had a way to put in one of those or at least a wood burner, but my house just isn’t laid out for something like that.
By the way, my guess of when the pandemic may begin, at least in Asia - December 2005. Looking at the timeline and the number of confirmed cases just since fall began, and the fact that the virus seems to thrive in the cold damp weather, I look for things to really start heating up in the next month, through March. Also, looking at the recent actions of the WHO and various governments leads me to think they are trying to prepare the world for a pandemic soon, without creating panic.
TJ!
I’ve looked at the pellet burners at TSC, but don’t know how they would work.
I went into an Aldi’s yesterday and looked around. Have you ever tried their own brands? Are they decent? Sometimes the cheaper canned veggies are bland and don’t have that natural sweetness. I definitley want them to eat what I pack awayespecially the vegs!
I’m going to check into hog prices here, that seems pretty cheap for a lot of meat.
I asked someone the other day where to buy bulk here and they said to go to the health food store. I have to go to the big city (ha)tomorrow and am going to try and check it out. My plan tomorrow is to get 100lbs. of boneless chicken breast bought and packed away. I’m going to try and put some in big pans, cover them with water and bake them, rather then boiling them. Some, I’m just going to slice for stir fry and some I’ll just vacuum seal the way they come.
I’ve used Sams bases too. The kids love the chicken base, added to rice with a small amount of butter, before I cook it.
My husband loves my craziness, he’s tired of my kids therapists (they do a lot of home visits) giving him “funny looks.” It’s clear now who the “nut” is.
Mom11,
The pellet burners may be a problem because I understand they are having a hard time keeping the production up to the demand for the pellets. The corn burners can only burn corn, but we’ve got LOTS of that here.
Ok, I’m a lawyer and make decent money, but I’m also frugal. I shop Aldi every week. The only canned goods I buy there are mushrooms, chicken broth, tomato products, and soups. Their fruits and veggies and tuna are terrible. I’ve never had a problem with anything else. Got my turkeys there this year and their chicken is good. I also buy all my dairy products there - watch the expiration dates on the milk. They stand behind their products, so if you don’t like something, let them know about it. The cereals are good too - in fact, they buy them for my daughter’s preschool. My hubby, who is picky, even admits Aldi has really improved in the quality of their food.
When I give the directions on how I want my pork butchered, I’m going to make sure I get the lard. It makes the BEST pastries! I may also ask for some of the bones so I can make some stock for use in rice and my barley risotto.
I’ve tried the health food stores around here and in Iowa, and they were too expensive.
Are you getting the chicken breasts at Sam’s? I thought they seemed a little high. Aldi chicken breasts are excellent and much cheaper. An even better buy, if your family will eat it, are chicken leg quarters. Try marinating them in Italian dressing and grill - sometimes I throw in a little chipotle tabasco and inject some of the dressing - YUM. Can you tell I like to cook?
You might want to consider a purifier by Ecoquest www.ecoquest.com. I have two covering over 3,000 sq. ft. They are over 8 years old and run 24/7 on very little a.c. All you have to do is clean the plates in them about once a month with windex…takes about 5 minutes. They also have a version for cars and a portable to travel with for hotels or at use when at relatives homes (like if they smoke in their house…yuk!)
Thank you, because with China heating up I’ve got to load up!!!!
I was planning on getting the chicken breasts at Walmart. They have 3lbs. for $6.50 or so. I thought Sams was high as well.
I like to cook as well, which is why my kitchen is 625sq. ft. The rule is we have to have enough space to all sit together at the table(and for the wild things to ride their trikes around). Also, my kitchen is equiped per capita…2 dishwashers (cheap if you do it when you build), 2 fridges, 3 freezers, double conv. ovens, and 2 kitchen aid mixers that I put side by side, mixing away. This is my survival, efficiency! (sometimes!)
I’ll check on pork tomorrow, the kid’s OT just bought one and he raises cows, so he can lead me in the right direction. I want to get some big bags of Sams hugh baking pots. I’m going to do them twice baked, they freeze well that way.
My sunroom is heated,14×22ft. There are nine windows in there and a cathedral ceiling. My citrus trees love it in there, hopefully my new veggie garden will as well. You’ve made me hungrey, think I’ll go eat a cup of Sonic ice with caffeine free diet pepsi on it!!
tj,
I clicked on your links for the masks you ordered for one of your children and for you and your husband, and the page that displayed did not appear to have N-95 rated masks. It said something about >95% bacterial filtration, or something like that, but viruses are smaller, and I don’t think that 95% means N-95, which is minimum recommended for filtering out viruses.
Maybe you ordered different masks from that company, but just in case you didn’t, I thought I’d mention this to be sure you are getting the right thing. Take care.
Hi all, I am so confused. WBill’s post from China seems to say, get with the program to get ready NOW. Then Dem comes along and says no rush, do a little at a time. I am going out of town tomorrow, with list in hand, to really stock up. On the other hand, maybe all I need is just my usual winter stock.(so I don’t have to carry so many groceries through the snow) Mom 11 and others are well into it. I am like SCat, all we all just overreacting? Last year I had never heard of Avian Flu, now it is on every MSM you hear. Why? Even Mike O. says 5 years? I thought he was one of the big red flag raisers. A little, a lot or just forget it??? What to do?
Sivad,
Do what you can. I would rather be ready now, than too late. However, it is hugh task prepping for this many people, so I have to get busy!!
These third world countries hide what is really going on. I don’t know if we will know if something has started to happen, until it is too late to stop it or prepare.
Most of your preps won’t go to waste. If you can afford it, do it now and if not do what you can. Every little bit will help.
WyomingBillRN…the news thread from China is not unexpected, but still disturbing…validates all of us saying to plan, educate yourselves, and others, ..exactly like the nursing process itself…assess, plan, implement and reassess……
Mom11 - Oh your kitchen sounds wonderful! I did get a Bosch dual-fuel convection oven last spring and a new Kitchenaid dishwasher a couple of months ago, but my kitchen is just not big enough. The house was built around the turn of the century and has cabinets that go all the way to the top of the 12′ceiling. I have to use a ladder to reach the top 3 shelves. Love my kitchenaid mixer, but wish it were bigger. One of these days I want to gut my kitchen and put in a professional range with 6 burners and grill with a vented hood. My dream…. I could also use a second refrigerator. I can’t imagine cooking for that many. It would be like making Thanksgiving dinner every day!
I also want to re-do my sun porch one of these days and put in insulated windows and heat.
You might want to check out the price of the chicken at Aldi before you go to Wal-mart. You can also sign up for a weekly e-mail from Aldi.com to see what they’ve got in new and sales. Their butter is $1 off this week.
Scaredy Cat - I know the surgical masks are not N95, but I’m planning to use them in our house if somebody gets sick, and since they are more comfortable, this is what I opted for.
Sivad - nobody knows for sure how soon a pandemic could begin, so it is better to be prepared for sooner rather than later, so long as you only buy what you will use and rotate the stock.
from: http://www.asianews.it/view.php?l=en&art=4626
Indonesia. President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono announced a national anti-bird flu campaign involving teams of volunteers, soldiers and students fanning out to test backyard chickens for bird flu.
Governors, district chiefs and mayors from across the vast archipelago are to meet in Jakarta tomorrow for further talks on the campaign.
The H5N1 virus has been found in 23 out of 33 provinces but the authorities want to avoid mass culling.
the last sentence is chilling.
I am encouraged by the knowledge gained on this forum. I would have no idea what to do to prepare. I am starting with a solid month of meals healthy and shelf stable. Then I will add one of each item in the food line each week I shop, builing up to two months and so on. I will lay in the important masks, gloves, drugs, shortwave radio, oil lamps etc. now. Grace I feel your posts are very informative and you seem to be keeping up with all sides of this problem. I too check all the web sites and chinese and asian papers. Sounds like China has something cooking over there. Stay tuned.. Sivad
Mom11
Your statement “these third world countries” is a little surprising and typical of the attitude towards developing nations that don’t have the money, technolgy or expertise to cope with such devastating situations. Once again the world watches out for its own whilst blaming those unable to help themselves.
And in ‘these third world countries’, people continue to die and lose their only sources of income.
Realist,
A bit off topic, but…
…I’d bet the ranch Mom has China on her mind, and China isn’t a “third world country”. If China IS hiding 300 fatalities, including h2h clusters in seven different provinces, (we see that possibility now as a set of questionable reports), you can be pretty sure that the WHO knows what happened. Thus, again, such hiding as might have happened there wouldn’t have been done by third world countries.
Hope this is not redundant. For the edification of all, Roche Laboratories, Inc. (makers of Tamiflu) have a excellent toy to place on your desktop called Flu Tracker-it provides a map of flu pattern in the continental U.S. with specific info you can put in for various cities, perhaps your own and some loved ones. Two animated characters, Basil and Bug, will keep you entertained for hours. Here’s the site.
http://www.tamiflu.com/consumer_dtflutracker.asp
Sorry, doesn’t cover Alaska, Hawaii, or the land of Doug and Bob Mackenzie (insert bird call here…)
during the SARS epidemic China sure hid the problem, until people crossed into Hong Kong with the illness and their public health dept picked it up.
I think i’ll wait for update, the Tamiflu Bird-Flu tracker instead. ;-)
it will have daffy and foghorn leghorn as the animated characters. (i always liked hoghorn leghorn)
Quite right Grace; an older but excellent article re: the Chicom’s SARS coverup:
http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/002/504jlpnl.asp
Reads like headlines from today’s paper. Deja vu!
WyominBillRn…history sure does repeat itself..your description of home sounds idyllic……what do the LDS know thatwe don’t?
“For the edification of all, Roche Laboratories, Inc. (makers of Tamiflu) have a excellent toy to place on your desktop called Flu Tracker…”
I tried to download it but my computer blocked the download … It thought the program might contain a virus :)LOL
ROFL Rupert.
ROFL?
Rolling On Floor Laughing
Roll On the Floor Laughing.
Flu Tracker looks as though it has the right idea, if not right scale. The national map animation day by day could be good, but the local alert feature looks to be virtually worthless.
Since they (Roche) allow new flu cases to be reported by zip code, they ought to at least map flu cases by zip code…or, even more specifically.
What with large numbers of people shut in, presummably many with time on their hands, there should be plenty of hands to populate and maintain such maps. Also, Mapquest, Yahoo, Google, Maps.com and others have resources that might be pressed into service.
Hi!
I certainly didn’t intend to offend anybody “third world.” However China and most of these Asian countries have large numbers of extremely poor people. I can understand their loss, but if this disease isn’t contained, loss of life and income will be global. I also don’t believe these chicken farmers are keeping anything hidden, but someone knows if there have been hundreds of deaths in that country and if so they have sure kept it quiet. I would say that that is a pretty “underdeveloped mindset, if in fact it is true!
Didn’t China’s silence allow SARS to escape the country?
Mom11…They showed that on the news here last night..about the poor in China and that most of them share close quarters with their chickens..poverty is a fact of life and it is everywhere on the globe, not just in third world countries..
The Olympics, the chinese are protecting themselves as usual, nothing new. I posted on another thread that you all must read, Re:Boxun:Casualty Surpasses 700. When I was in Tinnamin Square a very foolish American photographed a Chinese being arrested. There was a great brou-ha-ha and they tried to hustle her off in an unmarked van. Luckily with much interferance from others they accpted the film from her camera and let her go. She was a very nice woman with a stupid streak. You can’t understand what it is to know that you have no rights. We are a very fortunate and very spoiled country. China is China. Just read the latest on Mao and his callous treatment of his countrymen. The only prosperous farmers are the ones who grow river pearls. They are millionaires. I know I will buy nothing with feathers in it from Turkey or China.
Before you completely condemn the Chinese government, think for a moment about their history. Their government has improved the lot of the average Chinese a huge amount since 1949. There are no democracies on this planet. All countries are run by an individual or a small group of individuals. They make decisions almost always based on the best interest of the ruling elite. That is also true in good ole America. If you think you have civil liberties, think again. You only have them if it is convenient for the government.
My wife and I and several neighbors were out one afternoon in the early sixties taking pictures of a Russian submarine that had surfaced at the mouth of the Columbia River. The government swooped down on us and confiscated all our film and cameras. The used intimidation and bullying. We were told that we were lucky we were not all arrested. They told us that taking pictures of the submarine was akin to treason. Welcome to American democracy. This episode ended any of my school boy naivete about democracy and civil liberties.
Ask the four dead students at Kent State about their civil liberties. Try taking a video of police brutality when the police can see what you are doing. Then see what happens.
Third world or not, the Chinese government has been known to gun down protesting students. I doubt they are beyong the suspected attrocities/cover-up at Qinghai Lake. The fact that they took until now to announce ‘the first’ H5N1 infection, screams BS compared to the human infection/mortality rate in more sparsely populated Vietnam. Why e honest when you can blame it on pneumonia and burn the evidence?
Motive?
“The 2008 Beijing Olympics will begin at 8pm on 8 August….”
That being said, I am not above stopping at JJ Wong’s on the way home to crush some sweat and sour chicken and an egg roll. He is reporting no new infections ;)
Is it true? Olympic will begin 8pm, 8 august/08????
It’s true! Tk’s Fargo!
Boxun news service is covered on the Flu Wiki China page… those articles have been around for months. Please read the explanation. Boxun is an important source, but unverified… please treat as such.
See also Asia ‘not hiding bird flu cases’ to get another angle on this. I do not know any WHO people who say other than ‘it’s hard to know’.
Fargo
As opposed to … starting a war under false pretences, killing thousands of innocent civilians, using white phosphorus as a weapon (chemical warfare?) … shall I say more?
Re Sivad’s comment and others re overreacting vs not, here’s an interesting article here on the topic.
8 sounds similar to “prosper” in Chinese. At least it’s not 666. Then again, I wouldn’t judge another culture which reveres 666.
Yeah, check this out. China knows how important investor’s confidence is now.
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2005-11/18/content_495759.htm
WHO: China containment measures ‘almost textbook’ (AFP) Updated: 2005–11–18 07:12
China was struggling to contain an escalation of the bird flu crisis after reporting at least one person had died from the H5N1 virus, with other human cases suspected and two more outbreaks.
WHO’s China head, Henk Bekedam praised the Chinese government’s containment measures as “almost textbook”.
Some links to new translations (by PeterPan) of recent Boxun reports now up on the China page.
Anon,
Preaching to the choir….
“Human-to-human transmission of the H5N1 avian flu virus is ``not proven and not disproved, Petersen said. `There is only one case published from Thailand where human-to-human transmission is implicated, he said.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000082&sid=aisgMx5XlYGU&refer=canada
I’m not sure about the 3rd one, but the first two sound familiar. Maybe tens of thousands of Iraqi civilians is more accurate. And yes, we have much better chemicals than white phosphorus.
I can understand why the world hates us.
Anon – at 16:34
“Fargo
As opposed to … starting a war under false pretences, killing thousands of innocent civilians, using white phosphorus as a weapon (chemical warfare?) … shall I say more? “
Fargo – at 09:51
“Anon,
Preaching to the choir…. “
There’s nothing new about white phosphorous. It’s been in the arsenals of many countries since the 1920s and was used extensively during WWll
It achieves its effect by combustion, as do gunpowder and every other explosive. If white phosphorous is a chemical weapon, then all explosives are chemical weapons.
Mr. McClellan (aka “Rupert”),
There you go again, minimizing the sins of the Bush administration.
Shame.
C’mon Scaredy Cat.
It’s no use you pretending the Americans don’t want Bush in power. You elected him, didn’t you?
Actually, wasn’t it that Elections Commissioner in Florida that elected him?
A number of people on this forum don’t live in the United States of America. If it’s not _directly_ related to the issue at hand, I would kindly ask you to discuss this elsewhere. Thank you.
Scotty,
Now you’re going to pretend you aren’t an American or at the very least aren’t thrilled that Bush stole two elections? Oh please.
Ruprt, Scaredy Cat, the rest of you note lugon’s request. There are other blogs for political arguments not germane to pandemic flu. This remains a non-partisan site.
Thank you.
Dem,
We nay be looking at performance, candor and accountability issues here that are extremely germane to this site. Government being what it is, we might not get flawless performance in this thing, or even expect it, but accountability still works for me. If the Boxun reports are more than rumor after all, we may have some serious housecleaning to do.
I mean, consider this:
If the Boxun reports are true, and they’ve “out there” for months, what’s the CIA been doing with their thumbs?
Does the question remind you of something else politically topical?
Last night, I noticed a paragraph I’d not seen before in the Wikipedia entry for Avian Flu under the Potential Pandemic subsection:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avian_flu
“(WHO) announced on November, 16, 2005 that an outbreak is most likely to hit the Hong Kong Special Administrative issue by mid-December of this year. ‘If it were to hit in a highly residential area like Tin Hau, it would be sure to spread like wildfire.’ Dr. N Column, Head of Epidemic Prevention announced.”
I’ve been unable to find a reference from reliable news sources or the WHO website to such a statement re: Hong Kong on November 16th. Neither can I locate any references to a Dr. N. Column, or to a WHO job title “Head of Epidemic Prevention.”
That Avian Flu would hit Hong Kong is certainly no surprise, but I’m not accustomed to seeing a specific time frame quoted from WHO. Can anyone confirm or refute this new Wikipedia paragraph?
Dem,
With all due respect to you and lugon, the United States may well be just one country, but it is one country whose leaders, for better or worse, wield enormous worldwide influence. So while I can understand your desire to keep the wiki non-partisan, I believe that politics in general, and American in particular, play a profoundly important role in the potential catastrophe looming in our future, and so therefore, politics, indeed are quite germane to the discussion at hand.
And besides, if someone doesn’t like the way a particular thread is developing, they don’t have to keep reading. That’s a choice I make all the time. Simple solution, really.
Read it. Typical Rumpsfelt. If you contact Dem from CT, he will send you my e-mail address.
duh
Back to the original thread topic:
Timeframes: recently virologists quoted 12–18 months at the Lancet Forum in Asia that anon_22 attended.
My question is: if it is currently taking over 2 weeks for about half of all cases to be reported to the WHO (or for WHO to report to public)… that basically means that we could be in a pandemic situation RIGHT NOW and not know it until the first deaths appear.
By the time the first deaths appear, it will be quite late, since an unestimable # of people will have spread infections without showing any symptoms….
Thoughts on this? Is this not accurate? Seems quite problematic to me.
I would give my paycheck [haha] to know why that particular time frame was chosen. The winter/colder weather always seemed like a worrisome time for me, especially before cell-based vaccine systems are up and functional.
I’m not too knowledgeable about this, but if all the mutations are out there, but just in different strains of H5N1, it might just be that it is thought that 12–18 months are what it takes for the migratory birds to go north, then south, then north again, and pick up what is needed along the way during the mixing that takes place. (Sorry about the run-on sentence. To tired to try to sort it out.)
Okieman. I am not an expert. There are a lot of variables to be considered in determining the probability of onset dates for an H5N1 pandemic. Having looked at it from every concievable angle, I have come to the conclusion it will have an onset date within the next twelve months. I’m surprised that anyone else would come to the same conclusion.
ricewiki. Your thoughts are correct and they appear problematic to me also.
Once again, the WHO is making promises they can’t possibly keep; and are concentrating on illusions rather than concentrating on workable solutions.
‘’ probability of onset dates for an H5N1 pandemic. Having looked at it from every concievable angle, I have come to the conclusion it will have an onset date within the next twelve months’‘
please elaborate ! Is there any expert who shares that view ? It’s the first time I see this.
anonymous — 00:51
Yes. I share that view and that estimate. And I AM an expert. Let me tell you, anon, I have been guessing for just on 78 years now, so I guess I must have guessing pretty well refined, imho.
I guess I, and everyone else, would be fascinated to hear your own guess. Let me guess your guess: “…within the next seventeen months, two weeks, three days, one hour, seventeen minutes and: what is that? Sixty-five seconds?!
Ah, come on, anon, be serious! This isn’t the humour thread, you know!
Nikolai---Sydney – at 06:36
you are saying you want to be serious, but what you write makes me wonder. Can you proof, that you are an expert ?
Age and wisdom win out over youth and inexperience, Nikolai---Sydney ?
Hopefully, the time frame will give us and others more time to prepare.
(But, Hope is Not a Plan.)
anonymous:
Sorry if I was a bit flip. Let me set myself up to be shot-down by you.
My opinion is that there is a 25% probability of a panflu-5–1 emerging, at a lethality and transmission I can’t guess at, in the next six months.
After that initial period, I personally expect about 33% likelihood over the following six months.
From then on, but pending news developments, I have to go for a 50% level per year…
BUT even should my OUIJA board be truthful, without knowing what level of lethality and contagiousness it would have, what antivirals may come through the pipeline, vaccine developments etc, my figures on outbreak time are well nigh USELESS.
From that overall situation, I also regard the predictions of the most respected experts and organisations as little more than amusing and only fit for the Humour Thread…
<Nikolai crawls into his foxhole, appalled at his rashness>
“If you are going to give us guesses, give us easy ones.” John Lennon (?)
game, set and match LOL!
Nikolai, thanks for your estimate. But I doubt you are a fox or an expert. You expect about 5 pandemics in the next 10 years ? About 50% for (at least) a pandemic within 12 months,75% within 2 years, 87% within 3 years. I think, your numbers are not so unexpected and are typical for readers of birdflu-forums. But also, experts usually give smaller numbers. (if they give any). E.g. Webster: <50% that H5N1 goes pandemic (no timeframe)
feel free to modify your estimate
anonymous: this is a numbers game that “gs” plays; are you related? Kelly
Reminder: all of this is pure speculation. Gut instinct or psychic vibes. There is no scientific data to back up any of it and the possibility that nothing will happen is as plausible as a pandemic.
This is futile. It doesnt matter what the percentages are or if its next week or in 20 years. Nobody has a crystal ball. The facts are H5N1 has a good chance of mutating into a strain that can transmit easily from human to human. When if or ever is not a question any human can answer. We need to prepare worldwide to save as many people as possible because there is a chance of a pandemic period. Not to is foolish
Id distrust any expert that claims to know when or if - its unknowable. Plan as if its tommrow. Pray its never
anonymous – at 08:25 --- How’s about giving us all a NAME that we can use to speak with you. You seem to want absolutes and statistics, not guesses or estimates…so quit making us try to guess at your name! After you’ve typed your soliliquy (sp?) scroll just a bit further down and type in your Author name. THEN hit Post…
NP1:I very much like, what gs wrote here !
Melanie:reminder: lots of data, yes speculation but educated speculation
janetn: it matters a lot, millions of deaths ! We should try to estimate
as good as possible.The question is what to prepare with priority and how much.
Every expert has his/her probability. No exact date, neighbor dates
should have almost the same likelyhood.
TomDVM’s prognosis makes me much more uncomfortable than Osterholm’s ,Dem’s,Revere’s,
Monotreme’s,Garcia-Sastre’s,Palese’s,…
There seems to be a hunger for bookmaker odds — but bookies putting odds on a horse race are drawing from tons of previous experience, so they have a very good idea of how a 16 hand filly with a particular pedigree and 3 wins, 2 losses, in Gate 3 on a rainy day will run. We have the 1918 flu plus two smaller pandemics and that isn’t near enough background to do odds.
We know that H5N1 is nasty and virulent. We know it is spreading. We know we don’t have a vaccine (yet) or enough anti-virals (yet) to treat the world. Surely the greatest danger is in the next 24 months (after that, the vaccine and anti-viral picture, hopefully, changes). We may have to keep an eye on H5N1 for years, but the REALLY worried eyes are for the next two years, IMHO.
anonymous,
Sorry, you are just plain wrong. There is NO data. You don’t know what you are talking about.
Sorry about being so harsh…not enough sleep, and nowhere near enough coffee this morning…
BB crawls back under his desk, hoping someone will turn out the lights…
Melanie, the whole fluwiki is full of data. Many experts give predictions just not clearly enough formulated. You have many hints and papers and studies. Weight the positives against the negatives, decide which predictions are most trustworthy and build your own estimate from it.
anonymous,
The whole Flu Wiki is filled with information, not all of which is data relevent to making predictions. I know no scientist who would be willing to engage in such an exercise because there is no relevant data.
A “prediction” is not a fact. The only facts known about H5N1 is that it exists and is deadly, in it’s current form, only to people who have come into close contact with infected birds. There is no H2H transmission at this time. Period.
Predictions? Some experts predict that it will go H2H in the next 12 months, some say 6 months. Then, some experts predict H5N1 will NEVER go H2H…
So, Anonymous, you make a prediction. Are you trolling for answers? Tell us what YOU think….
information,data,predictions … quibbling. When an expert which you respect gives an interview and says “the danger is high” , that is some info which makes you increase your own prediction or estimate. Or when some study is published that Tamiflu-resistence is more likely than previously assumed. So there is data which makes you change your estimate. Just how much, that is difficult to decide. But the fact that data exists which makes you change your estimate already proves that there is relevant data.
Suppose next winter there are an average of 10 dual H5N1 and regular flu infections per country times ?50? countries. That would be 500 dual infections. How dangerous would this be from Dr. Neiman’s perspective?
Okay. So far, the two extremes are it’ll hit in a month, and it’ll hit 5–10 years from now. My guess? Somewhere in between. But that’s just a guess.
IMHO, your best bet is to keep a stash of food, OTC meds, and basic supplies, however much you can store, and rotate them.
“We encounter some very strange people indeed on the internet.”
(At least that’s what anonymous, gs and others are thinking about me!)
<Nikolai clasps his OUIJA board to his chest and heads for foxhole>
It must be the Aussie humour! I get what you are saying but I think you have confused the hell out of the rest! go Nik!
“There is no H2H transmission at this time.” - but there seems to have been some; very limited, H-2-H-stop, fortunately.
(trying to back off the coffee, I cannot pull references this morning)
Any of these events could set off a repeat (or worse) of the Great Depression of the 1930s (and all of your preps will have been validated):
Viral Pandemic-within 10 years
Massive Global Climate Change-within 15 years
Nuke or Biological Attack by Terrorists-anytime
Nuclear War between new members of the Nuclear Club-within 10 years
Chinese Nationalism and its scramble for resources ignites World War-within 15 years
“Banana Republic” economic practices hijack Western Capitalism-within 15 years
The unease fueling our prepartions has many sources, but most of us are only vaguely aware of the urgency of ALL of them. (And you begin to understand why some people just cave and stick their head in the sand).
Our technological pyramid is highly vulnerable to all of these shocks.
Old thread - Closed to increase Forum speed.