From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Pandemic and No Internet

28 April 2006

Dr C – at 01:57

A new study shows the Internet is likely to crash within days of a pandemic, and discusses the need to prioritize access to the Internet for essential services/individuals such as healthcare, public health, researchers, govt etc, and notes that telecommuting is not feasible.

“…Influenza Pandemic Simulation Reveals Challenges in Delivering Essential Services During Widespread Outbreak

Exercise by the World Economic Forum and Booz Allen finds potential strains on healthcare and telecommunications infrastructure.

Advance planning and public-private partnerships needed for effective response

NEW YORK, April 27, 2006 – A simulated influenza pandemic conducted by the World Economic Forum and Booz Allen Hamilton found that a widespread outbreak of avian flu would severely challenge governments and the private sector to manage essential services, limit the spread of the pandemic and communicate essential information.

SNIP

“…The simulation examined the impact of a hypothetical influenza pandemic in Germany that originated in Eastern Europe. Given the numerous incidences of avian influenza infections today, there is growing consensus among health experts that the global community is increasingly at risk of a deadly influenza pandemic. In the simulation, the pandemic rapidly spreads across the region, and Germany, along with much of the continent, experiences an almost complete halt in everyday life.

“Governments and business organizations need to work together to improve their ability to manage a possible avian flu pandemic,” said Heather Burns, Senior Vice President of Booz Allen. “The time to start preparing is now.”

Key insights from the simulation participants include:

The world will shift from “one of equals” to “not all equal,” as essential workers in health care and other industries need to be vaccinated so they can keep working.

Essential services and employees need to be prioritized – before an influenza attack – to maintain continuity.

Non-essential services must be shut down in an orderly manner.

Telecommunications will likely be overwhelmed early in the pandemic. Some experts speculated that the Internet could shut down within two to four days of the outbreak. This implies that government and businesses must coordinate and plan for the use of alternative communications channels—and telecommuting will not be a viable option. A method of prioritizing Internet access would be needed to allow key organizations and individuals to access information and communicate necessary actions.

Governments will likely direct the general population to stay in their homes, and to minimize social contact.

As a result, the government may need to assume national control, as in wartime, of critical infrastructure and resources including food, fuel, and healthcare. In addition, governments will need to assume responsibility for the “last mile” in delivery of food and other critical supplies to the populace…”

SNIP

“ Additional findings from the simulation include:

Governments will need to establish and communicate guidelines to the public for seeking healthcare—as well as priorities for application of prevention and treatment by the healthcare sector. Rules will need to be made for the consideration of the critically ill versus others. Alternate facilities, such as schools and churches, will need to become hospitals.

The recovered will need to fill vacant essential jobs; conscription of the recovered (now in effect vaccinated) will likely be necessary to fill vacant essential jobs. These individuals will probably require a minimal level of training to perform the critical functions.

Media can play an important role in communicating critical information from the government and businesses to the public and employees. People will want to know what is happening—and “flu-casters” can help calm and assure the public that progress is being made.

SNIP

Here is a link to the full report:

http://tinyurl.com/qbnac

An interesting read from people who forecast for businesses.

Nikolai---Sydney – at 02:49

Yes, interesting. And though not fresh (January 26, 2006) it is very very pertinent. Little seems to have changed in the areas that concern this study. Thank you for posting, Dr C.

This report also appeared in Australia today, in the ‘Daily Telegraph’ and I am sure in many other media, though merely in highlight summary forms.

lauraB – at 08:35

I think the wiki being down just on a limited basis recently demonstrates how vulnerable the net is overall. Many assume they will be holed up at home chatting on email to friends and family and this may not be the case. Like so many other things in our modern lives we have become very dependent on technologies that rely on other technologies, etc. I watched an interesting program on Discovery Channel last night about a hypothetical severe ice storm hitting Montreal and taking out all the pwer lines. Very eye opening, and that “strom” only lasted a week. It’s part of a series - I wonder if they’ll do BF too.

Nikolai---Sydney – at 09:12

With every new problem that arises, we look back in time to see how it was handled in the 1800′s or such. Always there are answers.

Are really serious preppers now going to have to acquire and train homing pigeons, I wonder? Smoke signalling would only be good over short distances… Drums possible in the city? The heliograph, was it, to flash reflected sunlight signals a la Morse code? Could we rig telegraph lines from home?

We must find new answers to this old problem. Otherwise, tough prospects for effective telecommuting, I fear. And grim indeed, for contacting this vitalmost wiki just when we need it most…

Medical Maven – at 09:20

I have saved many fluwiki threads as files and plan on reviewing them when the next pandemic occurs. If it is H5N1, I don’t expect the net to stay up. I have never been under that illusion.

Make sure you have alternate sources of power for your computer or laptop.

As an aside, how are the authorities going to “conscript” you unless you volunteer? And are they going to test you for H5N1 antibodies to make sure that you truly contracted the panflu? You could have been sick from another flu or had a severe case of bronchitis.

gs – at 09:22

uhh, and you invited us to Australia. No, we are civilized in Europe ;-) We have radio and TV and telefone.

moeb – at 09:28

wasn’t there a thread somewhere that mentioned the “net” was first created as a stable military communication method. prior to being turned over to scientists from different countries to use as a “stable” means of communication? and doesn’t power stay on to your phones even though city power is off? I don’t know about you but I was able to surf the web with my portable a few weeks ago even though the power was off in the area.

Nikolai---Sydney – at 09:29

gs

Congratulations, mate! Just don’t misplace your electricity. Perhaps tie a string on it or tag it with its name and its address like we sometimes do very young children.

But whatever you do, don’t lose your electricity. Though I really can’t imagine truly civilised European people being so downright careless, as I think about it.

Keep smiling, gs.

Janet – at 09:44

If the government declared a “state of emergency” and people were not compelled to work from home via the Internet, it may help. Emergency alerts should be broadcasted on the TV and radio that only critical use of the Internet is suggested. When the pandemic hits, parents should be asked to keep their kids off of the Internet. Internet should be used for necessary communication only (communication with hospitals, medical help, etc). This would apply during the peak crisis only - it is not realistic to think that people won’t use the Internet for up to 18 months, but I think we are talking about crashing the system during the worst of it.

Now, we all know that there will still be those who go up on the Internet because they can’t live without it. Look at all of the non-medical personnel that are on the roads during a snowstorm in which a state of emergency has been declared. For whatever reason, who the hell knows! It would take a huge load off of the Internet system if employers simply closed their offices, during the peak crisis, and did not require that non-essential employees telecommute. This, of course, is not practical in the long run but could help during those crisis peaks. These peaks may be only for a week or so over the course of each wave. Better to go to a state of emergency with restrictions than to end up with an Internet that has crashed, at which point we will be, literally, in a state of emergency with no ways to communicate.

I think the same things will happen with banks. Better to close them for a state of emergency for specific periods of time than to have everyone panic and have a run on the banks and crash the system. Same thing goes for the stock market. If people know that the government is closing them down for a short, specific period of time during the peak periods, Maybe, just maybe, we won’t crash these systems in our public panic.

Maybe this is too simplistic….but we have to do something so that we all don’t hurt ourselves more through panic than through the actual virus. We need to “ration” ourselves so that we are not all going to the “well” at the same time. They did this during the World Wars - we can do it. We may have to.

Medical Maven – at 09:51

Moeb: The server centers will eventually go down if they can’t be powered. And the net being overwhelmed with traffic is unrelated to power.

flourbug – at 09:53

“The simulation examined the impact of a hypothetical influenza pandemic in Germany”

Maybe so in Germany, but it would take massive, multiple failures of both infrastructure AND human resources for the internet to go down across the US. It might SLOW down from heavy traffic, there may be isolated problems (as there are even today) but go down completely? No way.

Spend a few hours reading the story of a centrally located New Orleans ISP that stayed up and running right through Katrina. I’m going to send you back about 320 entries, to the day the people of New Orleans first heard Katrina was headed their way. Click HERE and then just keep clicking on ‘previous 20 entries’ to read Interdictor’s story of survival and how dedicated staff kept DirectNIC up and running through the worst disaster in US history.

FW – at 09:57

moeb – at 09:28: Yes, one of the stories of how the Internet came about was that it started as an unbreakable communication system for the military. And yes, during most power outages your telephone, being part of a completely different system, will continue to funtion. However. The Internet has now grown to be a massive, complicated, and interconnected system dependant on hundreds of computers, switching stations, servers, etc, etc and which can be dramatically affected by events. You can see this when someone launches one of those ‘denial of service’ attacks on Google or Amazon and the whole net slows down because of the greatly increased traffic. The fear is that a pandemic, becuase it will lead people to stay home and on their computers in huge numbers, combined with power outages knocking major computers out, and computer and phone system failures caused by essential workers being out sick or absent, will lead the whole thing to crash or at least be slowed down to the point of uselessness.

Snowhound1 – at 10:06

I definitely can see “them” using the pandemic or simply the threat of a pandemic to start charging for e-mails and other “traffic” on the Internet as a preventive measure. There has been a lot of talk that they have been wanting to do this anyway and this may give them the reason they need to implement it. I wonder if we were all charged say, .10 a post, if we would be so “chatty”. >;)

Medical Maven – at 10:12

Snowhound1: What, me worry? It could soon be all “monopoly money”. : )

moeb – at 10:17

frankly I find the whole idea of this thread as a bit of sheer speculation.. sorry but that’s the thing that bubbles to the surface, (carry on)

Snowhound1 – at 10:20

Moeb-Isn’t even the idea of H5N1 going H2H “sheer speculation” albeit an educated speculation? ;)

Medical Maven – at 10:24

moeb: Do you have your rose-colored glasses on? Even in the best of times (now) cable service can be out for significant periods of time. If key people are missing in action for whatever reason, service will be haphazard at best. I can guarantee you that. FW nailed it.

Janet – at 10:32

Moeb has a point in that this might not be something we have control over so there is no way to speculate or prepare for the possibility. Hopefully, Internet providers are paying attention to what is going on and are “shoring up” for the storm. Alot was done prior to the Y2K threat. Not sure that the “average Joe” can do squat about it.

More frightening to me is the loss of phones and power. Back up power is something we can prepare for. A family plan in the event that communication is shut down is the only thing we can do. All we can hope is that our loved ones, who are not within walking or driving distance of us, have prepped and will be O.K. on their own.

In preparation of the Internet crashing, all we can do is make sure that all of the information we are going to need from the FluWiki and others forum, we have in printed form stashed away with our supplies. I plan on having extra copies of everything that I can share with neighbors and friends should the power be out and we can’t rely on the Internet and/or TV for news and health information.

moeb – at 10:57

don’t mind me.. i’ve been coasting along for the last three weeks on low profile mode (as to BF) strange how even though people kept getting infected and spreading continued (locally) news articles kept trickling out… it all seemed to be a bit distant. today yer all going nuts over this european report. (yes I read it and yes it’d cause that) now perhaps I’m in denial but somehow I have faith that the net will be there.. if not tomorrow then the next day.

BroncoBillat 11:23

FW – at 09:57 --- To put it in much simpler terms, the majority of people now connect with high-speed broadband, whether DSL or cable. These requires modems in the home that require AC electricity. No power, no high-speed connection. Also, a large portion of internet users have NEVER had to actually use a telepone to dial in to their ISP. It’s so foreign to them that they can’t even conceive of the notion. “Ya mean, plug my laptop into the TELEPHONE line?!?” This is the response I often get when I’m training users how to access their network files from a hotel room or from home if they don’t have HSIA (High Speed Internet Access).

As for what the internet was originated for: you’re right. The Dept. of Defense designed it during the cold war so a nuke attack on the US would not disrupt important lines of communications. That was simply “The Internet”. I’m not sure of the origins of the World Wide Web, but that is simply the graphical interface you see ridiig on the back of the Internet.

flourbug – at 09:53 --- Maybe so in Germany, but it would take massive, multiple failures of both infrastructure AND human resources for the internet to go down across the US.

Not really. The internet as we know it today is extremely fragile. 3 years ago, when the power station in Ohio shut down the entire Northeast region’s power, the ONLY internet access we could think of was through dial-up. What we found was that even though the telephones use a different power system, the phone companies themselves were shut down and could not supply DATA communications to work-at-home employees. In the NOLA case you stated, phone power and access was able to come into DirectNIC from a short distance north on the grid. But is a large area of the electrical grid goes down, then those ISPs that are directly connected to it will also go down.

Germany Population: 82,515,988, Internet Users: 48,721,997 = 59% having Internet access;

Unites State Population: 299,093,237 Internet Users: 203,824,428 = 68.1% having Internet access.

Germany is not that far behind the US in connected users…

Albert – at 11:41

I wonder how much of worldwide bandwidth is used for music, movies and email spam. My trust in mankind has dwindled in that I believe people will not stop using the internet for those purposes, even during emergencies. Is it technically feasible or legally conceivable to shut down these bandwidth wasters in times of necessity ?

BroncoBillat 12:01

Yep. By government order. They would prob’ly order those things be blocked from distribution for a short time so the Internet could get back on it’s feet.

Eccles – at 12:06

What many seem to be missing is that during a “Shelter in Place” event, the need for communication is rather assymetrrical. There is a far, far greater need to maintain incoming information than to have the ability to provide outgoing information.

If you look at the MINIMUM information communication need for a survival situation, the only true requirement is to be able to ascertain the situation both locally (in case there is bad weather coming or the dam is breaking) and at a distance (the pandemic is spreading or has ended). The only true outgoing REQUIREMENT that people would need is to summon emergency halp, assuming such help were available.

Thus, lacking the internet, the progression of information instruments which an individual would need to use would be telephone, then TV if the phones are out, then FM radio for local broadcasts, then AM radio if local stations were out but distant stations were still on, the Shortwave radio in case someone, somewhere werestill broadcasting. Additionally, police/fire/aircraft scanners would be valuable to allow someone to piece together what is going on if all other sources of information were lacking.

Thus, instead of freezing up worrying about the internet, we should all make sure to have multiple battery radios of the types mentioned above, plus a means of recharging the batteries over the long term. Such means could be as simple as a solar yard lamp which runs on NiCad batteries which it can recharge during daylight and then you remove them. Exttremely low cost, but very effective.

Plus, as has been said many, many time before, if there is something on the Wikie you think you will need to refer to during bad times, print it out now and put it in a binder. They work without power.

anon 58 – at 12:14

Washington Post Staff Writer Sunday, April 16, 2006; Page A01 President Bush is expected to approve soon a national pandemic influenza response plan that identifies more than 300 specific tasks for federal agencies, including determining which frontline workers should be the first vaccinated and expanding Internet capacity to handle what would probably be a flood of people working from their home computers.

http://tinyurl.com/mlxmr

flourbug – at 12:14

BroncoBill, ah, for the good old days when everyone on the internet knew what they were doing. There’s a HUGE knowledge and resource gap that will keep many people offline if there are even slight problems (ie, a power failure that knocks out their cable and then they have no clue how to reset the modem once it comes back on) but in actuality would have a minimal effect on the worldwide internet. Read more about DirectNIC - they ran off of diesel generators and satellite connections. When the Ohio station shut down, most area ISPs were fully functional - otherwise, your dialup connection wouldn’t have worked, would it? My husband works for Verizon. They have massive backup generating facilities and dozens of satellite dishes that insure the internet will be available to their customers. He and I worked for AT&T for years. Their systems will be up. EV1 is the largest web provider on earth. They have redundant systems. I don’t know a major provider that DOESN’T have redundant backups for power generation and connectivity. You know the internet architecture - its like a highway. If you hit a roadblock or the road is washed out, you don’t park your car and cry. You take another route. Ditto for the internet. Sh*t happens. Things go down. Packets are automatically routed and rerouted all over the place every day and yet we rarely feel a thing.

But *people* - all those people who will leave their offices and their system administrators and the ‘computer guy’ behind - have to have the knowledge, and resources, to get online and stay online - and THAT is where it will fail, unless we prepare, create redundancy, and test our systems, prior to quarantine.

With that, I am off to do some shopping. :) toodles till later.

BroncoBillat 12:14

BB unplugs his 3″ thick Wiki binder…pondering the wonder of being mobile again

Eccles – at 12:22

Eccles wanders off to incorporate as Eccles Friendly Help Desk- $600 Per Minute- Cash Only, Inc.

Prepper272 – at 12:57

I called my ISP (who also happens to be my cable company and VoIP telephone provider - all my eggs are in the same basket) and they said that, in the event of a power failure, their generators would power their telephone service first. Internet and cable are a distant priority. Of course, with VoIP, if my power is out, it won’t work. This could be a serious roadblock for us.

On another matter, I have bought a battery-operated tiny television in case I have no power but the local channels are still broadcasting.

I have a question about shortwave radios. Can anyone recommend something that is not too expensive? I’ve been looking at the Grundig FR-250. It works on batteries or hand crank. It can also recharge cell phones. It sells for $69 CAD.

BroncoBillat 13:00

Eccles – at 12:22 --- $600 Per Minute Price gouger…I only charge $400/minute! LOL!

Melanie – at 13:03

Prepper272,

The Grundig is a spledid little machine.

Ceredwin – at 13:04

This being a scenario gamed and played from a business perspective, their views don’t surprise me, but it does show how they think, which is what seems to get the emotional reaction (people as usable resources or problems). And given that the revolving door between govt and business, this is likely how many political appointees/leadership think (not civil service necessarily.)

However, despite how they define the problem and what ever recommendations/solutions they make, their analysis of how things will break down from a business point of view is useful. I have often feared breakdown of the internet. That along with media control and martial law from this administration makes the paranoia bells ring…

Prepper272 – at 13:22

Thanks Melanie. Much appreciated. I’ll get it then.

I wish there were a way for Fluwikians to correspond, or simply check in with others, or report on local events, or seek advice, or to say “I’m here but I don’t have electricity,” or “My Internet is down.” I was thinking about some kind of telephone central, but I don’t see how it could be feasible. People would have to give up their anonymity and it could create a whole host of other problems.

moeb – at 13:33

what we need here is a fluwiki email address (hint hint.. ie; registration etc etc)

BroncoBillat 13:40

moeb – at 13:33 --- It would take a lot of work and administration, but your email address could be “anonymized” (?) so that your “real” address would be changed on the Wiki to show as “anonymousxxx.xxx@fluwikie.com”. Craigslist does this when you post something for sale there.

But as I said, it would take a lot of resources to make that happen, and I don’t think the Mods have that kind of time…it IS a full-time job. Besides, if the ‘net does go down, email will be kinda useless.

BB adds Postage Stamps, Envelopes, and writing paper to his preps…

moeb – at 13:45

could be bill.. yet I have email packages for my web sites.. and free yahoo, hotmail or otherwise, sources abound. even a directory might be useful. as to the web going down for extended periods.. I just don’t buy it. sure I’ll have radio back up but hey.. expect an email from me (smiles)

AlabamaPrepperat 14:17

Two items I bought years ago; a small, hand sized battery powered TV, and a digital shortwave radio. Both from Radio Shack.

The TV comes in handy when the weather gets tornado-y. (I don’t have any regular TV…cut the cord literally long ago.)

What will happen to emergency TV broadcasts when they are required to go HD? Many folks have battery powered TVs just for storms and such, and depend on them. Has anyone in the FCC thought about this? (Foolish question, I guess.)

The shortwave radio is single side band, whatever that means.

I know I can input a frequency on it and it will search and find a broadcast on that frequency. If you know a number for something, like FEMA, you put it in and can listen to them.

It will also listen in on ham broadcasts, CB’s, aircraft, emergency, lots more than just shortwave.

Depending on how a situation develops, I can imagine a suited up LEO or military personnel driving through neighborhoods making announcements over a loudspeaker. No interaction with anyone, just relaying info or instructions.

Our county wide tornado sirens/warning system is loud enough, and has locations covering the whole county. It may be possible that announcements can be made over it and will be broadcast throughout the county.

Information is vital. That’s why I love the internet. I want to know what is going on, where, why, and how.

It will be miserable to lose it.

BroncoBillat 14:37

AlabamaPrepper – at 14:17 --- I have a silly question, one I’ve not seen here: if power goes out for long periods, and that time happens to be during tornado season, how will the sirens run? I imagine that they have generators, but someone, somewhere has to send some sort of signal to the sirens themselves to go off.

DennisCat 14:46

Prepper272 – at 12:57

$69 for a Grundig is a bit high- they are nice radios (I have one in my homeland defense box) and the crank is the “only way to go”. Try here: http://tinyurl.com/nac7u That will save you 30 for more rice.

When you look for things like that try a Google search with Grundig crank and price in yur search fields. If you use “price” it often shows you the various prices.

The key to this and any shortwave radio is to have a good antenna.

AlabamaPrepperat 14:52

BroncoBill - Don’t have an answer. The county E-911 building is about a mile and a fraction from my house. They have a whole lot of ‘stuff’ there and enough antennas to bring in Mars.

What they will do personnel wise, I have no idea.

Someone in planning needs to designate some people to shelter in, lock the doors, and try to run things as best they can for as long as they can. I guess.

I’ve only been in the building one time. Its the dispatch center for the police and fire/emergency, plus all the other stuff E-911 has charge of now.

I also have a police scanner, and would highly recommend everyone that can go get one. Make sure when you get one that it will allow “trunking” so that you can follow the on air conversation. The new digital comms used by police move from place to place on frequency, and the older analog units won’t pick up but one end of the conversation.

There is so much to think about and try to plan around.

Everything we have ever planned for in the way of handling emergencies has assumed the presence of personnel. We may not have that when this pandemic happens.

Back to Basics – at 15:19

Oh no! We don’t have internet. Where will we get our porn?

Give me a break.

Janet – at 15:55

BAck to Basics:

Give us a break and a little credit for being professional, intelligent, resourceful and caring adults! Not perverts. I think most of us were more worried about being able to communicate with loved ones via e-mails; get and share vital information; and stay employed!

If you think the Internet is only about porn, you are missing out on alot. There is a whole world on the Internet that is literally at your fingertips. Many of us have wonderful, well-paid jobs that are made possible by the Internet our organizations are global in nature - but, I am not sure you “get” this!

What do you do for living? Obviously, you don’t telecommute. If your paycheck was dependent on the Internet, you would realize how ridiculous your comment is.

BroncoBillat 16:26

Back to Basics – at 15:19 --- Obviously, you still prefer USMail subscriptions.

BB goes back to his computer to look up the word “porn” on Wikipoedia

Jane – at 17:00

About the Grundig radio, I saw one at Restoration Hardware this morning for $49. It had an outlet for charging a cell phone and the light was LED, I think. So there may be different generations of this radio.

moeb – at 17:05

applauds Jane (but heck I would miss my…. never mind) meanwhile there are lot’s of grundig’s on ebay

Back to Basics – at 17:12

Clearly you miss my intention and decide to bash me instead. My point is this. Ten years ago the internet was little more than a smattering of sites offering limited resources. Mankind survived, thrived, and committed to business acts. All the technology that existed then exists today.

Pick up the GD phone. Write a letter. Hell, send a telegraph. The world doesn’t end when your inbox does.

Will your transaction take longer? Sure, but if you’re so concerned about the internet “crashing” what makes you think that anyone wants to do business that way anyhow?

My heart beats independently of the keyboard thank you very much.

Woodstock – at 17:29

i work in the telecommunications industry. I can assure you that phones be disrupted if there is a break in internet service. Many of the functions used to maintain our phone lines are now done over the internet. Mail is also directed and processed using the web. It will make for some difficulties

DennisCat 17:53

Back to Basics – at 17:12 ---Ten years ago the internet was little more

It has been around longer than that. Remember the arpa net and having the computers call you back and putting your phone in the “craddle”. Not to mention the user net. I can still connect directly to the phone line if needed - but if the phone is not there, it would really put a cramp in my style. (I teach on-line with students around the world).

Most of these “just in time” supply lines rely on the net. That is how Walmart works- you check out and one computer connects to another and they ship more ?? to replace what you just bought.

And no you cannot send a telegram anymore. After 150 years the last one sent by Western Union was back in Feb of this year. And the problem is here is that the net relies on the phone lines and the phone lines rely on the net. You won’t be able to use the phone. - no phone, no net, and telegrams are no longer. I don’t think you really understand the problem here.

janetn – at 17:56

Didnt society exist before the net? Didnt commerce exist, jobs ect.? This is the least of our worries.People will lose jobs, but humans are adaptable.

Melanie – at 18:05

I’ve been doing a boatload of research on business continuity planning for a pandemic. Many are planning to rely on web-based communication and in-house websites to disseminate information to employees. They are going to be in for a rude shock, and here is another chink in the supply chain armor.

We will be in a world of hurt, dears.

Sahara – at 18:32

I’m curious as to how many people here could actually telecommute and get anything done, or would have anything to do.

My husband works at home. He technically has a company that he works for, but it is about 1000 miles away. He worked for 10 years to put himself into a niche where he can be a consultant and work from home. He has all his files at home (believe me, I can barely move in his office!), two computers, fax, high speed cable modem, 2-line phone, reference library etc. Even so, during a pandemic if the chemical plants and power plants he provides consulting services for have reduced staff, they aren’t going to be planning expansions or alterations and won’t need his services. His business could drastically decline.

I am a designer and I do 100% of my production on my laptop, but I am hard-pressed to work from home because I don’t have my files, product library, and sample library to consult. Half the time when I bring work home I am unable to do it because a critical piece of information is at the office. I also provide a “non-essential” service, i.e. people don’t really NEED to build that summer home or remodel that kitchen. Whenever the economy is uncertain, people get conservative and save their money. I would not have a job during a pandemic.

Is there anyone out there who 1. could realistically telecommute and 2. would have something productive to do? I am curious about who all these hard working people are who will be overwhelming the internet - I may change careers ;-)

Woodstock – at 19:16

i manage a datbase that routes mobile phone numbers between the big telcos. All my work is online so it will be very easy to work from home.

Sahara – at 19:59

Well Woodstock, I guess you’ll be the only one working. Or maybe you and I are the only ones working late on this Friday night.

Woodstock – at 20:02

heheh! actually its 10am on a saturday here (Australia)The database i manage also handles all the emergency numbers so i suspect i’ll still be in work if TSHTF.

lugon – at 20:09

Are satellite phones dependant on the internet too?

Woodstock – at 20:19

i dont think so but i dont know for sure

Prepper272 – at 20:45

DennisC at 14:46,

Thanks for your concern about the price. Unfortunately, $69 is the price here in Canadian funds at The Source (which is owned by Circuit City).

I checked EBay but all the sellers are from the U.S. It would be more expensive than buying it up here.

I went to the Eton/Grundig site. I have the choice between two models: 250 and 300 for the same price.

The 250 has shortwave and the 300 has TV bands and NOAA. I’m guessing that shortwave would be more useful.

Does anyone have any advice about that?

29 April 2006

Janet – at 08:14

My husband works for the Federal Reserve Bank and could telecommute. They have already had several practice drills of all trying to log on to their central system at the same time.

I work for a financial organization and we do a lot of writing and editing. Yes, I could continue to work. Work production would definitely be affected in both of our jobs, but could muddle through.

These jobs, as many, could go “on hold” for a short amount of time. They are non-essentional in the scheme of things in that they are not going to save lives. I am more concerned about doctors, pharmacies, etc. Anyone who thinks that they don’t require the Internet to function fully during a pandemic is out of step with the times. When we talk about losing the Internet, we are saying it is because of the loss of power. Suggestions to “reach out” and pick up a phone or turn on a TV go down with the whole crash.

It takes “social distancing” down a whole other level. Alot of us are hoping to social distance within our homes but still be able to work and/or communicate. That was all this conversation was about. Some took offense and took it to the level that we appeared “superficial” in that we could not do our e-mails. Unfair. We all need to feed our families and these are legitimate concerns = not inconveniences.

FW – at 10:43

Prepper272 – at 20:45

RE the FR-250 vs. the FR-300: As a shortwave listener, I can tell you that listening to broadcasts from other places is a blast. You can get music, news, and points of view you won’t get from the U.S. Main Stream Media (Radio Habana from Cuba will tell you everything bad the U.S. is doing, in excruciatingly detail, over and over. There’s also domestic shortwavers, who focus on religion, money advice, and theories and beliefs so far out they’ll have you staring at the radio open-mouthed in disbelief). So if you already have ways to receive TV and NOAA broadcasts, I’d go for the FR-250 for the entertainment value if nothing else. But from a purely survival point of view, in a crisis it’s information (especially about local conditions) that is of primary importance, and being able to listen to what nearby TV stations and the NOAA are saying about your area might trump entertainment.

Hope this helps.

Craig – at 11:05

If the net starts to get overwhelmed, filtering out all the non-text “extras” will knock out most of the traffic. On many pages, the bits needed to support the eye candy and logos are more than the bits used for information. For example, the fluwiki picture in the upper left of the screens is around 8K bytes. Granted, this will have been cached for subsequent accesses but if someone is scrambling all over the net looking at information, all those eye candies that have to be downloaded from sites they’ve never visited before really add up.

Mathematician – at 11:52

Sahara 18:32: I do research, and could telecommute - except that with the toddler at home it’d be hard! My husband is the same, and I have thought about schemes in which we both work at night when toddler is asleep and then take it in turns to catch up on sleep during the day, while one person looks after toddler. That way, we could in theory both still do a full working day.

Rhetor – at 12:30

Mathematician — I teach rhetoric and writing at a public university. I assume I can move to web-based instruction at any point in my course, although whether or not we will have internet access or any students who want to follow through and complete their coursework during a pandemic is unknown.

My husband is an engineer, and could telecommute if he has the option to do so. (Power, internet, phone lines.) Since he works for the state, however, he more than likely will be required to provide essential services of some sort during an emergency.

Prepper272 – at 13:00

FW at 10:43,

Thanks! I think I’ll go with the 250 since I will have that small battery-operated TV for the local TV channels and it turns out NOAA doesn’t cover me since I live in Canada.

We have a local radio station that airs a paranormal/alien abduction/conspiracy theory show during the night. I know what you mean about being “open-mouthed in disbelief”!

Melanie – at 13:05

I’m a writer/editor for a disaster mitigation and recovery website. I will continue to work from home.

DennisCat 13:09

Rhetor – at 12:30 I assume I can move to web-based instruction

I teach 100% on line these days. Our university uses Blackboard. It is really not bad. It of course depends on your personal teaching methods but teaching on line is possible. You might talk to the Univ. about Blackboard or something like it for your class. Even “live” classes can benefit. For Astronomy, I put in links for NASA, and so on. And for the writing (forgive me) I use Turnitin and smartinking. The Turnitin is nice because it checks the papers (stops a lot of plagiarism) and the Smartinking has live people to help them with writing the papers.

The point is you might want to position yourself by having some of the class already on line so the conversion is easy.

DennisCat 13:11

Melanie – at 13:05 “I will continue to work from home. “

Me too, if the net is up, there should be no effect on my work - except the little guy down in the basement back at the main campus that keep the school’s server working. (???)

Ruth – at 13:17

Remember, after a week or so, the people who have recoved from the flu can now return to work. They should have immunity from the flu. They can now take over for the ones who get hit during the second wave.

Melanie – at 13:21

Ruth,

You are making a bunch of assumptions that probably aren’t true. Pandemic flu is not like regular flu. People will get much sicker and stay sick longer. Whether or not first illness will confer immunity to subsequent waves is a controversial subject; some viral geneticists think that continuing mutation will render the second wave genotype so different that it will be a substantially novel virus.

Ruth – at 13:30

So everyone could get sick more than once??? I didn’t realize that.

Tom DVM – at 13:35

Ruth. Like everything else with respect to H5N1…we don’t know…but there is a very good chance of at least some partial immunity.

FW – at 13:42

Ruth – at 13:30: Yes, if the virus mutates enough between waves, or if different strains of pandemic flu start making the rounds overlapping each other, then having the flu once might not prevent you from having it again.

Also, while some of those who survived the 1918 flu got back on their feet suprisingly quickly, others were flattened for long periods of time. It is hard to guess what the recovery time might be for any new pandemic that emerges.

Woodstock – at 19:25

Ruth: Sadly it will also take a lot more than a week or so to recover if u do get infected.

Janet – at 19:32

Could you also be a carrier of the flu if you have already had it and someone else in your family is coming down with it? You could be dragging it back to the office on your shoes, clothes, etc., I would guess. I would assume it would only be safe after your family has been “flu-free” for an extended period of time … at least 2 weeks. Anyone with solid facts on this?

10 May 2006

ricewiki – at 20:22

Returning to the topic of the thread….

Blackberries: I don’t have one, but am wondering if these will still operate? My understanding is they are just wireless plug-ins to the internet. So, if the net is “up” or local providers are up, blackberries should be okay, right?

I ask because the U.S. military uses blackberries.

lauraB – at 20:55

Ooh! I never thought of that. DH has a Trio that has access also. Maybe I need to ask for one for mother’s Day - that way at least if our power is out (taking the cable modem with it) I’d be able to get on, plus if bugged out, etc. Good thinking, but does anyone know for certain? It makes sense but I’m fairly illiterate on tech things.

11 May 2006

Eccles – at 11:10

Example of what we may face during an outage of personnel.

I just had an outage of my DSL service. It went down last night after Tech-support closed up shop (11 PM). I left a voice mail for them. This morning, still no service and no reply to the voice mail. Called back (squeaky wheel principle). After they went through some things, they discovered a failed Line-Card at their end. they did a replace/rebuild, but still no service. Then the help desk guy started running me thorugh hoops to unwire routers and modems because there must still be a problem on my end, as they showed everything good at my end. I didn’t like that since the original failure was at their end, why must I do cable unweaving and reweaving at my setup here?

Anyhow, long story short, after he wanted to send someone out. (Not with preps out everywhere I wouldn’t), he tried the Central Office a third time, and they “deterined” that there was something additional they needed to do to restore service. I saw it come back online before the help desk guy called me back.

Bottom line of the story- If this is what we face with the normal complement of the normal people, imagine what the workd will work like when the “Good Guys” are home or incapacitated.

Asume you will lose service early and not get it back.

Melanie – at 11:14

Eccles,

My cable broadband provider has been pretty good, but I have had similar helpline problems when things have gone wrong.

Hillbilly Bill – at 11:16

Which will make staying at home all of the time even more fun…..

European – at 11:23

Always have a standard modem setup as backup with the necessary settings / ids and so on. That would be as reliable as the phone network, and more reliable than ADSL/DSL networks.

Eccles – at 11:24

Melanie-

The fact is that help desk people, as well meaining as they are, are not top-of-the-line experts in the field. For the most part, they go down a scripted checklist. Since the average consumer takes the position of “OH. I’m so stupid about computers, I must have done something wrong.” this works out OK.

What the help desk person lacks is the critical thinking process about what must be going on “In the machine”. In this case, for example, it is a logical progression for me that since they found a failed component at their end, and since changing it got signals going back and forth between our locations, but no connection was established, it was still at their end. Why would there be a problem with my cabling when they had already located the root cause at their Central Office.

What I have always said is: If these guys were rocket scientists, they would have been working for me building rockets.

Eccles – at 11:25

European- I do indeed have a standard modem, and another account with a different ISP. But it is a pain to haul it out, hok things up, and then run at 56K. This morning, my time was occupied helping these guys work through their problems in their own system.

Np1 – at 11:27

Earthlink will be a pain in the butt. When I call them about possible satellite uplink problems I am never convinced that they are not putting me on. One minute things are working fine,next my satellite modum is sending but not recieving.5–10 minutes later the internet comes back up. “ no sir no problems here” I can see that 15–20 minute wait for tech help turning into 3–4 days. Kelly

ricewiki – at 12:51

Anyone know if blackberries will still work?

lauraB – at 21:03

Bumping - will Blackberreies, Trio, etc. work, assuming ISP works but perhaps your modem is out?

Thanks

12 May 2006

Greenhammer – at 11:53

The forward-looking result of the WEF simulation is that private-sector business planning is key. That kind of planning must be coordinated by government at the highest level. See my article at Greenhammer.

Today, the feds are moaning about the fact that their agencies can’t do telework, not just because the central Internet will fail, but because they don’t have the right software and the agency bosses don’t care. See Reuters.

The DHS is supposed to start helping businesses in the next 6 months, but I don’t know if the money comes from their existing budget, or if it’s part of a new pandemic appropriation.

lauraB – at 17:21

Bumping - will Blackberreies, Trio, etc. work, assuming ISP works but perhaps your modem is out?

Thanks

13 May 2006

Fredness – at 16:39

I can put my site on a cd for any who wants one. It has many important pdfs predownloaded and linked. Most require no internet connection. Treatment. Infection Control. Food Storage. Water. Etc.

Pandemic Reference Guides

crfullmoon – at 18:22

BTW, “Eccles & BB’s Friendly Help Desk- $600 Per Minute- Cash Only, Inc.” gave me a much-needed chuckle, today.

14 May 2006

Timber – at 00:57

Dear people —

Our quest for efficiency has created a complex of highly interdependent, very brittle networks. Speaking as a student of technology for half a century, I see very little of the resilience that characterized our systems when my 103 yr old grandma was born:

— Diesel back-up generators are great for hospitals, telcos and ISP’s, but very few of them have more that a week’s fuel stored.

— Those cute grasshoppers that pump our oil to the surface run on electricity.

— The coal-fired generating plants rely on several trainloads of coal every day, trains which consume vast amounts of diesel and are precisely scheduled.

— The oil/gasoline/diesel refineries rely on the electricity from the grid. So do water purification systems and irrigation pumps (and telcos and ISP’s).

— The electrical grid is highly tuned to operate with a narrow range, with significant adjustments in capacity taking weeks, if not months, to achieve. If we have a couple 1000 or 2000 megawatt facilities fail because 1) a few key maintenance people can’t make it to work, or 2)train scheduling gets messed up, or 3)??? , then the effects have in the past cascaded across large areas of the country. They are REALLY hard to restart, especially if we find ourselves short of personnel and parts to solve the problem. If a dozen fail within a few weeks…

So it ain’t just the internet that might fail. Prepping is a REALLY good idea. Humans are pretty darn clever, but my grandad used to say, “Maybe this time we’ve been too clever by half…”

From an engineering standpoint, we can actually tolerate very little in the way of widespread disruptions. The “house of cards” analogy is a little too appropriate. If we dodge the birdshot, let’s hope we have enough sense to re-examine Just-In-Time inventory, interconnected delivery grids, sole source suppliers and the like. If we don’t dodge this bullet, I suspect very few systems will be easily restarted. Then we (or they) will face a very different world.

Kinda reminds me of Joseph and Pharaoh, with the wiki playing the part of Joseph, and no Pharaoh with the wisdom to listen and lead.

“Think globally, act locally.”

G’nite, friends.

BroncoBillat 02:02

Timber – at 00:57 --- If we have a couple 1000 or 2000 megawatt facilities fail

See: http://www.cnn.com/2003/US/08/14/power.outage/

or

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_North_America_blackout

All it takes is one generating plant shutting down to affect an entire region! I think I like yer Grand-dad!

NS1 – at 03:53

Consider the rolling blackouts in the state of California in 2000–2001 that were due to plants reducing output during peak periods (all due to gaming of the deregulation rules). Very few plants were actually taken offline during peak periods.

All plants require fuel. Those that require the least fuel interchanges (nuclear), require a significant and skilled workforce for safe operation. Those that are more automated require more frequent fuel interchange.

The network is excessively brittle as Timber has noted.

NIdahoat 03:57

I have a backup system sort of dedicated to my Sat systems both TV and Internet. It works great! Nothing lasts forever so unless we stay in the dark ages Im set.

Medical Maven – at 11:39

Timber at 00:57: That is an excellent synopsis of the difficulties that we will encounter in confronting any major shock to our system. And many have described the fragility of our technological pyramid over the last couple of years, but I doubt any will ever do it as well as you did with that brief, condensed post.

Sailor – at 15:56

Prepper272 – at 13:00

“it turns out NOAA doesn’t cover me since I live in Canada.”

Actually the statement above is not entirely true as the Canadian weather service brodcasts weather alerts on the same frequencies used in the US. and you will be able to receive them on the Eton/Grundig 300 model if you are in range of one of their brodcast towers.

lauraB – at 19:47

Asked this earlier with no response. Will PDA’s and Blackberries work assuimg ISP is up but your home has no power?

Timber – at 21:07

LauraB

You could possibly set up a solar charger for your Treo or Blackberry, or charge them off you car charger. That’s the good news.

The truth is that the ISP’s have limited ability to sustain service in the face of extended power outages. So the simple answer is yes, you can make your Treo work — AS LONG AS the cellular services’ emergency generators, along with those of the ISP’s, get the fuel they need from refineries which also depend on power from the electrical grid. A battery-powered laptop with a hardwire modem connection thru the phone lines would also work for a little while.

Again, we can probably get most of the individual links of the network to function. Your Blackberry will work for several hours, as will the cell phone system, if we are lucky, and the ISP’s. Over days or weeks, tho, EVERYTHING must continue to work, from the coal mines to the power plants to the oil refineries to the server networks, in order for you to get service.

Minor, short-term outages, we will be fine. Widespread or extended outages will turn my Treo into a cute paperweight.

Take care — Timber

15 May 2006

Timber – at 00:49

OK, Medical Maven, MaMa, and several other charititable souls —

This is a warm and caring community. I am incredulous at the dedication shown by so many FluWikians. Maybe the trolls are around to help us appreciate what a fascinating mix of minds and hearts gather here (OK, like, we get it already!).

Thanks, people. I sincerely hope the archives of this effort survive to be studied by our grandkids.

I’d like to tell you I dropped out ‘cuz I was kidnapped by gene-switching aliens who not only gave me Elvis’s voice and Robert Redford’s looks, but also a BF cure.

Nope. They just left me sitting on my front lawn with a blue tatoo on my forehead: “Unsuitable for consumption or experimentation.”

In my pajamas.

I hate it when they do that!

Truth is I have a daughter with PPH at Johns Hopkins and it was time for a visit. I confess I’m more than a bit touched that you missed me.

All my best — and to those in the Western Hemisphere: GO TO BED! (That includes you, too, MaMa!)

Timber

31 May 2006

Marc in CO – at 02:07

I like the “house of cards” analogy. It doesn’t take much of a bump to see how really fragile this society of our is. We have had several incidents in the last decade to see what happens when a single piece of our infrastructure goes on the blink for even a brief period of time.

I think the approach I’m taking is that IF TSHTF I am not counting on ANYTHING working! And the closer the connection to the government the sooner I am planning on losing that resource. The internet will be great, albiet scary as things develop…..until things go dark. It will be an interesting moment for us humans. The threat comes from each other. The only sure survival technique may be complete isolation. No human contact no H2H H5N1! self suficiency= self preservation. Like I said-scary!

TRay75at 02:53

Too darned late tonight to educate everyone on the official “black start” procedure that has existed since the 1960′s for the US power and telecom grid, but let’s just say that the system is there to drop the whole thing if needed, then come back up sequentually with a true skeleton crew and get the lights and lines back on. And most of us old guys that don’t do it for a living anymore would be the ones to step up and get the lights on and the fiber relit. We may go down for a couple of days at worse in large segments, but not all of it will fall.

In 1978 during the “Great Northeast Blackout” a rigorous field frequency relay calibration program by Carolina Power and Light stopped the blackout at it’s substations tying to what was at that time VEPCO, forcing the blackout to got west into TVA. The Carolinas became an isolated grid that ultimateley fed power back north to jump start the plants and get the lights back on - all because calibration techs had done their jobs and no one paniced or hesitated to flip the disconnects when the time came.

Today, with so many personal generators, it would actually be easier because the surge load would be lees of a precentage of the restart 28 years ago. The plants will fail safe, and if just one restarts, then the others will be able to restart if 1/3 of the crews are available. Just expect it to be like hurricane recovery: esential services first, then the largest feeds next, but maybe weeks to get to the individual drops to every home.

Take time to learn how the power grid works. It will be the one thing we have to get back up after TSHTF if we are going to survive waves 2, 3, or 4. No power and no Internet or fiber communication equals no vaccine production or distribution, no water supply filtration or sewage pumping, and no fuel refinement or distribution.

lauraB – at 06:28

Tray-thanks for the insights. I live in the NE currently and was amazed how quickly we got power back on a few summers ago given how extensive the blackout was. It must have been due in part to this system you are referring to.

But a question - would it really be easier today than many years ago? Not that many people have generators and virtually all have AC. If it were summer and the power magically reappeared I think so many would rush to turn on ac units, fridges, run washing machines, etc.(all huge power drains) because they were afraid it might go off again. Granted, if businesses, schools, malls, etc. were closed then the need would be far less than on an average day. Face it, most humans are selfish. Even if you could get the word out to not use these items until the system is stronger, many will think to themselves “I’m just one person. It’s okay.”

03 June 2006

Closed - BroncoBillat 01:01

This thread (Part 1) is getting long, and is now continued here.

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