I’m starting this thread because I’m afraid I may have contributed to thread drift on the Social Distancing thread.
I have two points:
We often characterize adjustment reactions as frantic prepping, melting down or other evidence of emotional turmoil. I believe there is another adjustment reaction that is worse: denial. Some people when faced with a truly awful possibility, and a virus that kills 25% of the world’s population would certainly qualify, respond, not by panicing, but reorganizing their thought processes to exclude this horrendous possibility from the realm of possibility, even if all the evidence suggests otherwise.
This happened in New Orleans before Katrina in spite of repeated warnings from respected scientists and engineers. It is happening again with H5N1, IMO.
As Katrina showed, we ignore reality at our own peril.
I am taking my head out of the hole in the sand where I have purposefully chilled all summer for the more part to say “I agree with you”. The worst case scenario is NOT being presented to people. The evidence is rather dreadful as this virus is so lethal, especially with children and youth.
I also think that if this turns in to a pandemic our food chain will be affected (vegetarian aspects as well an animal population but for different reasons) and cause other serious problems. Also, has →anyone← in the affected countries who has contracted AI survived without extensive medical treatment? That’s what concerns me is that extraordinary medical help has been needed to barely keep people alive. It is not going to be available in a pandemic.
But, on another thought would it truly be a denial of reality or just the inability to imagine something or a scenario that defies anything we could possibly even have nightmares about?
Katrina and the tsunamies would be nothing compared to a pandemic with a kill rate of over 50%.
Back to sand hole and book on things to cook when you have electricity and butter. . .
Panflus with a high CFR are a psychological nonstarter for those who have reached the pinnacles of power. If they don’t get stripped of their life or health, surely someone in their family will. And even if they are amazingly lucky and survive unscathed, they are still likely to lose their position of power and most of their possessions. The whole pecking order gets overturned. And you don’t get to the top of your profession (and that includes politicians and bureaucrats) without an oversized ego that believes it can tackle anything with a large degree of success. And when something comes along that tends to challenge that worldview in a serious way you tend to shrink from it.
And face it, politicians shrink from most difficult tasks. They would rather just redistribute tax monies, and kick the difficult issues down the road.
So that powerful person and everything that he has ever worked for is “on the line”. It is just too devastating to accept. It is worse than personal death. Even his family and all his “good works” may not survive him.
It is a nihilistic “black hole”, and there is no light escaping from it.
There is something very special (or deviant) about us fluwikians in that we are able to look this “black beast” in the face and against very long odds decide to prepare.
Hi, y’all, my DH is in total denial about the bird flu. He’s more worried about how he will commute almost 50 miles to work and who will be around to go to work for. He gets extremely uncomfortable even talking about the bird flu. He believes that the sick people will go to hospitals, and the doctors will make everyone better. Yet, he has let me prepare for the last six months with only once telling me that I was crazy. He has been out with the tiller expanding the winter garden these past two weeks because I have been ‘restless’ and heartily intent upon planting more veggies to dehydrate and can.
He sat and watched a History Channel program on the Black Plague with me last month, and we finally talked about the bird flu. He said that he just couldn’t conceive of an event that horrific, and it put him into full frozen panic mode when he did think about it. He said that he did feel better about the bird flu because of the end segment on the show which showed how overcrowding was better and how the lives and even the diets of the common people improved due to high death rates. It showed that they picked up and moved on with their lives because, ultimately, what else can you do? At the end of our conversation, he looked at me and said that he was letting me worry enough for both of us since I would do that anyway. :) He could keep going about his daily routine as long as he knew that I was keeping us prepared….
None of my friends want to talk about the bird flu or even prepare. I’ve been working on my winter garden here for the past month. As the news increases it’s swirling motion, I add more rows and wait. I’ve been waiting for the inevitable ever since the tsunami in 12/2004 hit Sumatra. My friends think I’m crazy, but they’ve been badgered into 2 weeks of ‘bad weather’ rations.
They are in firm denial that it will be that bad in this our civilized country. They don’t seem to remember the looting that occurs after EVERY major hurricane. However, they cannot function as part of this our ‘consuming’ economy if they worry about ‘everything that could happen next month, or next year.’ Denial keeps them going.
Sorry to ramble so long…
I suspect even amongst we members of the Wikie, there is a subtle denial and failure to prepare. In my own case, my own adjustment reaction has been to overprep in certain directions. But not in those directions which assume that the world has been permanently disrupted, society has re-assembled itself differently, and my current existence has been completely and inexorably taken from me.
To prepare for that eventuality would mean essentially packing up a Conestoga Wagon ready to tek cross-country and homestead with nothing except what is on board.
So I too, prepper par-excellence as I might be, still exhibits some amount of adjustment reaction in the face of 50, 60, 70% CFR. As a planner and engineer I can certainly draft up the plans, and I can certainly purchase lots of stuff and supplies. But I still personally can’t wrap my brains around 200 million dead in the US alone.
I think the power people, or experts in the know, have their resources for survival. There a big gap in awareness between what the masses and what the top brass understand. They know what the best minds in think tanks have come up with as likely consequences for a bad pandemic event. They know they have resources for their families, but they don’t care that many people will be caught in this crisis unprepared. It’s too embarrassing for them to sound alarmist. It’s not just the levees in New Orleans that get a “Case sera, sera” attitude. They know that eventually New York City will get a storm surge that happens at once a century. The hurricane in 1828 covered the lower part of Manhattan, making the Hudson River and East River merge together into one body of water up to Canal St. However, there were not subways then. Now, there are 660 miles of tunnels with the whole power grid of the city underground, these interconnected tunnels would fill up with corrosive salt water. The city would be uninhabitable for years until the whole power system could be rebuilt. They also ‘Know’ that 8 million residents plus 4 million on Long Island, can not evacuate in two days over a few bridges and tunnels. They “know from the geological record the many layers of storm surges every century. Like the pandemic flu, they say it’s a matter of when not if. And they know it will be a holy sh-t disaster. But the population doesn’t know. They should be prepared to survive with food and water stocked. What a difference it would make to individual families. But the “Case sera sera” attitude prevails, they want to keep attracting as much business into the Big Apple as possible. But back to the flu- how often the worst case scenario has been referred to as something close to the 1918 pandemic. That would be a rough shake to go through, but I would consider that a medium scenario and so much better than the much worse possibilities. A 10% CFR would be 5 times worse than 1918. That is shocking to think of, especially now with our hugely inflated population density. It’s one thing in the past to scrounge for food with a few people per square mile, but what are thousands per square mile going to do? We simply need all people to always stockpile food, and I would never have thought of this a year ago. I can understand why people don’t know.
Holy Smokes! I started looking into it and the years 1821 (not 1828, sorry NJ Prepper) and 1938 show just how almost any American city could become another NOLA under the right circumstances.
So preping for those eventualities alone would be prudent. If anything like those were combined with a pandemic, well, then we again have hit my denial as adjustment reaction response.
The 1938 hurricane went east of New York City, close call, but hit Providence, Rhode Island. The storm surge put the town under 12 ft of water. The V shape of the New York harbor would magnify a tidal surge worse than the NJ coast. A category 3 Hurricane hitting Manhattan would be many times worse than Katrina. In 1788, a there was a 10 ft storm surge also. There are layers of storm surges recorded in boring samples. Two giant storm surges occurred in the 13th cent. and the 6th cent that carried a lot of sand many miles inland.
The point is that there are people whose job is to know these things and calculate what will happen. And that’s what gets me - that they know about this, -they know it IS going to happen, anytime, any year. We are entering a period of steering currents that are doubling the odds of a Northeast- tracking hurricane.
I believe, like Monotreme that they do decide to write off New York City. It’s hopeless so don’t say anything that might hurt the current economic condition. However, I think it’s extremely unfair for the people to not be warned to prepare. I looked at the NYC pandemic flu plan, and there’s no mention of food shortage or power failure considerations or social disruption. Do you really believe that the disaster preparation experts did not think of that? They saw no way to deal with it.
I had coffee with the fire chief in my town who is in charge of emergency, including pandemic, planning. He said that “getting your arms around this is like getting your arms around a ghost.” They are working with the local hospital and power/water/police/etc. for continuity planning but know that something really bad would be beyond any likely capacity to cope. What makes it so difficult is that we do not know if a pandemic will happen in the next year. Or, if it did, how bad it would be. I think even the better prepared are planning for the twenty or fifty year flood, not the hundred or five year flood (using the NY analogy)- what per cent have more than three months of food stored? How many living in urban or even suburban homes could live very long without electricity? We can try to do what we can with self-quarantine, social distancing and stockpiling. But I suspect it will be communities that function well that survive more than individual families.
Ange D – at 15:00
But, on another thought would it truly be a denial of reality or just the inability to imagine something or a scenario that defies anything we could possibly even have nightmares about?
Yes, to a certain extent I think that’s true. 9/11 is a good example of a failure of imagination (although Tom Clancy did imagine it).
Eccles – at 15:44
I suspect even amongst we members of the Wikie, there is a subtle denial and failure to prepare.
Yes, and I’m sure I have been guilty of this. I think we all imagine scenarios where our preps save the day for us, although the rest of the world may go to hell in a handbasket. If our communities do not hold, we are doomed. It’s that simple. That’s why I think the failure to warn New Yorkers or make serious plans for that city are criminal.
NJ. Preppie – at 18:02
I looked at the NYC pandemic flu plan, and there’s no mention of food shortage or power failure considerations or social disruption. Do you really believe that the disaster preparation experts did not think of that? They saw no way to deal with it.
This is what I think as well. What’s criminal is that they don’t tell New Yorkers this. The real plan of TPTB is to make as much money as possible and then bail out.
You can’t social distance in NYC> I just returned from there. If a flu pandemic hit NYC, a lot of people would be sick and many would die. It would be nightmare. I was in Times Square on a Friday Night, wall to wall people for blocks and blocks. It was an incredible experience, and as I walked by people from all over, I tried to imagine a pandemic. I don’t think there’s much that could be done, really, and this is true for most big cities. It’s an unimaginable thought…You can’t adjust and prepare, you just have to be in denial that this could happen.
Well….I agree with everyone posted above!! Glad I came to this thread. Deep sigh.
Aug. 25, 2004 12:00 AM
In her 1969 book, On Death and Dying, Swiss-born psychiatrist Elizabeth Kubler-Ross outlined the five stages of grief of someone who is dying:
[b] Denial and isolation:[/b] “This is not happening to me.”
[b]Anger: [/b]”How dare God do this to me.”
[b]Bargaining:[/b]” “Just let me live to see my son graduate.”
[b]Depression:[/b]” “I can’t bear to face going through this, putting my family through this.”
[b]Acceptance: [/b]”“I’m ready, I don’t want to struggle anymore.”
The list was praised and criticized by grief experts. Some said the stages got people expressing their emotions; others said the stages were too rigid.
sorry for the typos
Those are accepted stages of death, dying and grieving. We learned them in our psych classes.
I think I’ll make DH till up another patch of garden later on today as my own personal form of denial over how bad it could get…
Monotreme – at 19:15 My DD and I were talking about this very subject not more than an hour ago. As I said to her, I can not prepare for the worst case as it is beyond my ability to do. I can prepare for a 2 year run with 4 periods of 6 weeks each when it all goes to crap. But to prepare for a 50 to 75 percent infection rate with at 50% CFR is beyond anything I can do. I have done the best I can for my family and only hope that it is good enough. If you were to tell the average people what the worst case could be I don’t think TPTB would be able to hold it together for very long at all and it would end up being even worse then we could dream of (90 to 95 percent overall death rate).
This seems a confession booth for flu wikians. As such, I come with my own items.
I have spent most of my life imagining the unimaginable, the things that I have been hammered about as being “realistic or uncontrollable” fears.
People would not believe that it could happen to them. None of this stopped people from building houses, having babies, or raising families.
About 3 years ago I gave up worrying, maybe because I had a family, I had lost everything I ever worked for, and felt I had nothing left to loose. Maybe I just got so tired of being afraid I didn’t want to fight any more. Denial has it’s place in working through any of the high stress events humans endure.
I had a really strong adjustment reaction a couple of months ago, realizing that in my present state my family and I have little if any chance to survive a pandemic. I never bought a CFR of 2%, I thought it would be more in a 16% to 25% range because of all the “collateral damage” - even if the virus itself was like 1918. We have hashed over figures and models and scenarios and statistics for months, hung on every scrap of news some days, and bemoaned the inaction or futility of government and industry actions, and wondered about the lack of consideration and planning of “ordinary” people. But to me it has just come down to this one simple question - Do I want to live through a pandemic of the horror-story proportion we are coming to expect?
I’m not sure I know how to answer that for myself, and I surely cannot answer it for others. Is this a form of denial, or acceptance?
My decisions will effect 2 small children and a wife who has come to think of me as a borderline invalid or psycho for my focus on this subject. I honestly don’t blame her any more. Will I really feel any satisfaction if my wife comes to me when the stench of death fills the air and says “I wish I had listened to you earlier”? If I live my last days in fear and frantic, but useless, efforts to live through something that will leave the world that survives in a quasi-Middle Ages / post-Apocalypse nightmare, do I really want to do it? Do I want to leave my kids to live out their lives in that sort of world? Faced with that day in and day out, denial doesn’t sound so bad.
Survival seems to be a matter of luck and timing. I could prep until I could save an army for a year, but be so consumed by it I step in front of a bus while going over what I missed in a list, or shot dead for the money I’m paying for preps with by a psychotic drug addict.
Nothing is guaranteed, nowhere is entirely safe, but the real item I wonder about is am I so worried about dying I am forgetting to live, and harming those most important to me by fixating on what ifs? Is that attitude denial, or acceptance?
Tray, as always, you are spot on, and state the case more clearly than I ever could.
TRay75 – at 00:50
I know how you feel, I think I do anyway. I consider myself a survivor but I know there is a good chance I won’t this time. A part of me is tired of fighting. I’m tired of fighting alone. I really wish something would come easy for me; for a change. If it wasn’t for the like minded people here, I’m almost sure I would have gone nuts or just quit.
But there is a stubborn side of me, a voice that whispers…keep fighting, knock that birdie out.
I had that last dream of me cooking over a sterno stove, if it would come true, I makes it at least that far…So my mind focuses on the good thing, sort of. At least we’re still alive to cook over the sterno <:/
I know I am going thru an emotional reaction now, but that voice keeps whispering to me not to give up. I think the people that survive will have electricity, gas, and everything we have now within a short time after its over. Just a much different reality then now for what we/they have gone thru.
Off to bed, busy day tomorrow. Nite everyone.
This has been precisly my line of thinking for several months now, and also the primary reason I stopped posting. “Don’t frighten the newbies.” was one message. Hell, a true worst case scenario frightens me and I think it would frighten any sane person.
I started a thread back about May entitled, “After 3 months what?” in an effort to get people to think constructively about long term survival planning. In my mind if society goes down for three months then you and whoever is in your immediate area will truly be on your own.
I have read everything I could find on an influenza pandemic for several years beforfe I came to the FluWiki site. It seems obvious that TPTB are primarily concerned with keeping natioinal economies going. There is no way any country can realistically prepare for a worse case scenario of say the proportions predicted by the Rocky Mountain BioSecurity Lab personnel in Hamilton, MT in conjunction with Ravalli County Emergency preparedness coordinator.
This is the link to the November 18, 2005 article on their pandemic briefing. http://tinyurl.com/qkhqh
In part it says that this rural Montana County would expect to have an illness rate of 40% to 50%, and a case fatality rate of 50% to 60%. They said to expect 8000 of the 40,000 residents to die. This actually is a worst case scenario, not the .2% to 2% the federal government is suggesting.
The low end of their range is one in five of the general population dies from the flu. The high end of their range is a little under one in three dies from the flu. If you factor in collateral damage it begins to sound like the March 14, 2006 Robert Webster quote, “Society just can’t accept the idea that 50 percent of the population could die. And I think we have to facew that possibility. I’m sorry if I’m making people a little frightened, but I feel that it’s my role.”
Who can imagine such a scenario and how do you prepare for it? Many can’t do either, that is why this is such a difficult subject to write about responsibly.
My family preparations began with the basics of survival in the wilderness books and equipment. My philosopy was to prepare for the worst and if the lights stay on all the better. I as yet have no land in a wilderness area, but if it gets that bad the game wardens won’t be around to tell me to get off public property.
At this point though I plan to weather the first wave in our home and expect we will hav eto relocate hopefully to a more remote area where we have like minded friends. No one family is going to do this on their own.
One of the most precious commodities will be non-hybird seeds. Even as I write this I HOPE AND PRAY THAT i AM WRONG. Yet, this is my truth that I stopped writing about as it is so hard to imagine happening in a good way.
You can’t dictate human nature. People are what they are, for whatever reason. I don’t like it when religious fanatics try to “save my soul” and neither do bird flu deniers like it when we try to get them to prep.
We are told to prep - with food. That’s the easy part (for us here anyway). But we need to prepare our mental attitudes, our emotions, our fortitude, we need to determine how we will adjust, how we will get through it, how we will react to different situations, how we will get strength, we need to develop our survival abilities and our problem solving strengths. Most of all we need to accept it in our souls that this is going to happen. The government is not telling people to do that, much less how to do that. I think that’s the frustration we feel about what the government is doing to prepare us for the pandemic. I’m not sure they can.
So if you were the government, what would you do? I can see a dictatorship might order us, but in our free society, we can’t force anyone to prep.
When TSHTF, the world will change. Either we adapt or we will probably die. This whole world will be grief stricken.
Accept that you are special and have been given foresight and insight. See yourselves as pillars of strength. For everyone else, “There will be an answer, let it be, let it be.”
This is literally hard to write about clearly. What I was trying to say above was I expect society to hold together through the first wave. Then we plan to relocate to a more remote area before the second wave hits.
As they say in chess, “Any plan is better than no plan.”
Of interest may be the The World Economic Forum Annual Meeting of January 26, 2006 where they held an Influenza Pandemic Simulation. http://tinyurl.com/qbnac
The final paragraph reads, “Participants urged all sectors to develop contingency plans today that go beyond the typical disaster response to focus on how to respond when the entire fabric of society and the economy falls apart.”
Food for thought.
jbl – at 02:34: The final paragraph reads, “Participants urged all sectors to develop contingency plans today that go beyond the typical disaster response to focus on how to respond when the entire fabric of society and the economy falls apart.”
Did they say how to do that?
Monotreme,
Thank you for raising this point. You and I were probably one of the first on this forum to openly dispute whether the CFR was likely to come down from 55%.
However,
require different approaches.
For what it’s worth, here’s a summary of my current thinking if we have a pandemic caused by H5N1 in the next 3 years, . This is assuming the awareness and preparedness of governments continue on the current slow (for the US and Canada) or glacial (UK and most European countries) pace.
I’m putting everything on a 5 point scale as follows
1) Overall infection rate of 80% over the whole course of a first or second wave, whichever one is the more severe - I would give a score of 4 for cities with population over 1 million, #3 for suburban areas, and #2 for rural areas
2) Proportion of infected people with symptoms ie clinical cases - 50% or more #5, 70% or more #4, 85% or more #3 (this is because of the severity of current H5N1 infections and the apparent absence of asymptomatic cases)
3) CFR of <1% #1, 5% or less #2, 10–20% #4, 50% or more #1
(Current CFR of 55% is unlikely to be maintained even if virus factors do not alter substantially, as host factors are likely to become more prominent when those who are currently not susceptible also become infected. It is likely that whatever factors make them less vulnerable now may have a role in causing them to have less severe disease. Or it could just be wishful thinking.)
BUT, (you knew I would have a ‘but’) particularly since the likely scenarios are so scary (let alone the low probability ones), and the gap between what might happen and current awareness is so big, that in communicating risk, we may need to think carefully how to approach this.
(I have made this argument before, not very successfully, a while back with clark, on the issue of the 1918 CFR. )
Let me use an analogy, something physicians encounter all the time.
A patient is first diganosed with a particular form of cancer, a disease which has a moderately good overall 5-year survival rate of say 70%. However, as a clinician, from the history and clinical signs, you are pretty sure that this patient has more advanced disease than others, such that they are very likely to belong to the 30% who won’t make it.
What do you tell the patient? Remember this is the first consultation, or the first time that he is going to hear the diagnosis. For most people, they don’t hear much beyond the C word, any complex or nuanced explanation is tuned out, at this first consultation. But they will always ask what are their chances.
Also, remember that even though you are pretty sure, you don’t have 100% confirmation. And in any case, even patients with advanced disease still occasionally survive.
If you tell them the ‘truth’, that chances are even with the best treatment they might not make it, it is very likely that they will abreact very badly right there. What’s more, there’s a fairly good chance that they may go to someone else, often anyone else, including quacks and charlatans, who will tell them that you are wrong and there is a good chance of survival, “you just have to do this that and the other” (usually involving handing over $$$$ to be treated by this person).
A patient who consults two doctors, one telling them they have an 80% of chance of survival with treatment and the other telling them doom and gloom “but we’ll try our best”, will, irrespective of objective evaluation of the competence of these 2 doctors, almost invariably believe in and go with what the first doctor has to offer. They will also interpret the second doctor’s judgment as that of someone who doesn’t know the latest bestest most amazing drugs or treatments, despite all evidence to the contrary.
Whenever you tell someone their life is going to change, the bigger the change, the more chance of them not believing you. And scenarios like what we are talking about, involving major population die-off, is so far off of people’s reality and their understanding of ‘history’, that for us to shout worst case scenarios will very probably result in our losing whatever influence we might have, whatever we CAN bring to the table.
That’s why for the purpose of overcoming resistance and getting something done, I use the most conservative of my estimates, ie 50% infection with 25% clinical cases, 2% CFR to start. These are also the kind of figures that are least likely to be rebutted by naysayers.
This scenario is already bad enough to blow people out. NO ONE society is prepared for that, now or any time in the next few years. We need to get people STARTED. To do that, they need to be frightened, but not too frightened such that they will do anything to find someone else who will say you are wrong - and there are plenty who will do that.
Once people start prepping, invariably they will want to learn more. And, for some, this will gradually lead them further into your ‘real’ worst case scenario.
At this stage when 99% of people on this planet have no clue, it may be more important to retain credibility and therefore influence than to express your ‘real’ thinking publicly, IMHO.
anon_22 You are so very correct in your statements and as such it makes perfect since for the Governments of the world to give the briefings that they have. They will raise the “worse case” a little each time as more and more people come on board. (I think we are seeing some of this in the MSM reports) However, you will always have the quacks and naysayers which will deny that this is even a problem and as such restrict the amount of preperation that the Governments can do. I have also noticed that the “Hope” aspect (any new drug or vaccine) is widely released yet the clusters are normal played down as “unimportant”. What is your take on that.
Thanks ANON 22, you have once again scared the living (&%^%&^( out of me.
I don’t think I’m in denial, I’m just optimistic that it wont get “that bad”. I am far more scared of the collateral damage than the bug itself.
The biggest reason I feel this way is, to be honest, because there is only so much one can do to prepare. When everyone is in denial and you’re the only one preparing, then…well….it’s not good. For this reason, I prepare, every day a little more, quietly, patiently…but the truth is that I really don’t want to think about worst case scenario.
The fact is that what ever will happen will….If I worry myself sick and make other around me ill as well, it will not change the outcome. I choose to worry about things I have control over, like supplies and the fact that my next Au Pair, here in two weeks is a Polish RN. I prep because it gives me security. I can’t worry about this thing, life goes on, I can only prep, learn to bake bread, grow vegetables and in the process, become closer to nature. The way I see it, even if BF never happens, my family is still better off for prepping.
Anon-22 at 4:38,
At this stage when 99% of people on this planet have no clue, it may be more important to retain credibility and therefore influence than to express your ‘real’ thinking publicly, IMHO
This resonates perfectly with my experience with the first announcements in early 1984 of AIDS/HIV. We were informed in cleart terms that it would become a pandemic, how through unprotected sex many people could die, and that the importance of using condoms and latex gloves during all stages of sex play, or choosing celibacy without repressing initmacy, were inestimable to avoid spreading this disease. Did I hear it from my doctor, a scientist, a medical researcher? No, in the early days no TPTB would dare to say the truth- for fear of ridicule and because the facts were so shocking. It was truly awful to contemplate; the photographs of emaciated victims shocking. I was living in the Oregon commune ( yes, that one) and my information came from an enlightened mystic, Osho. All around us, in America, people sneered. Pure denial. It was certainly a lot to accept- and coming from such a controversial figure! The PTB in those days chose not to listen and ignored his advice, as well as the experiences of courageous scientists and HCW who were dealing daily with the reality. The AIDS spectacle began. Today many in my circle of aquaintances are still alive because he courageouly spoke out. And of course, people are being urged to use condoms and abstinance to restrict the spread of HIV. It has become very bad. How many have died because they didn’t use their intelligence? My point is, with or without credibility, facts and figures,
*ONLY A VERY FEW PEOPLE WILL LISTEN.*
I see many parallels between informing people then, and now with BF. However, then I could accept, adjust and change my behavior. Now, I have the time to reach out to inform people close to me and I can SIP. That’s about it. But options for informing AND CONVINCING large numbers of people are far more limited, the stakes are higher, and people world-wide are more than ever burdened with disasters. So, how can people who don’t listen to ANY estimates, low or high, even educated people, be helped to accept this, when it seems so obvious to us that the issue is so urgent and time is so short? I applaud you for your ideas in trying to reach as many people as possible. I really love reading your posts, your heart is of pure gold and you bring a voice of clarity to many readers of these threads which you start. How do people in your circle respond to BF? I’m not giving up reaching TPTB here but I’m ot very optimistic that we can sway enough people in time.
Thank you anon_22 – at 04:38 — you explained this very well, and I think it’s so true. Many of those who posted on this thread have put a lot of thought into this and are looking at the situation realistically. It is hard to imagine such a situation so we sail off to that isle of denial where it’s much more pleasant. Thank you all for sharing.
Thanks to everyone who has posted here. I’ve read alot of good comments.
Howevever, I may have a different reaction to the fact that a high CFR pandemic may occur. And people are not being warned. It is anger.
Anger that the resources available to the federal government are not being used.
We can’t make our neighbors prepare. But the federal government could stockpile food for them. It hasn’t.
We can’t force our Utilities to prepare by buying PPE, tamiflu for workers, backup generators, all necessary supplies to operate independently, etc. But the federal government could mandate this. It hasn’t.
We can’t give orders to the National Guard or the US military insisting that they co-ordinate with local law enforcement to develop detailed security plans for a severe pandemic. But the federal government could. It hasn’t.
This is not a partisan comment. All the repubulicans control most of the federal government, the democrats could be demanding these steps be taken. They aren’t.
I don’t want people to dispair. I want them to get angry and contact their representatives and demand action be taken.
I think I lost the “denial” function of my personality on 9/11. Since then I tend to review situations with a much more critical (or analytical?) eye. With that thought in mind, though, instead of giving in to the gnawing anxiety, I tried to focus that energy on personal preparations. Now that I have pretty much finished with that, I have begun attempting community education, but let me tell ya, it ain’t easy. Either I get scorn and ridicule, or the person (who clearly understands the risks involved) shrugs their shoulders with the understanding that there is “nothing I can do”. Sadly, I think we will see a more active involvement on a community and government level when the survivors are forced to figure out ways to dispose of the dead.
Monotreme, we need everything, including your anger if it works.
I am beyond anger. Ocean2 asked how people in my circle respond? The answer is badly. I live in the UK. I have temporarily given up trying to convince anyone simply because the resistance is so big. There’s only 1 of me and I needed to decide how best to spend my very limited time. I chose to spend time here in the hope of kick-starting things that won’t start in other ways. And if I post here, and I’m not around, folks can still read it.
Mono, I know it is no comfort but I know for a fact that the US administration, as opposed to the UK, has already gone past the ‘let’s pretend it’s not gonna happen’ stage. So just do whatever you can do, and hope the effects will get translated into results for other parts of the world too.
I’m not angry. I’m numb…
Jefiner: One Boston-area university was asked by a small city in which it resides if they could use their hockey rink to store the dead in the event of a pandemic. Who says there is not planning? I fear the last part of your 10:25 post is all too correct.
I think I’ll just go back to bed and pull the covers over my head.
anon_22, you’re right that the US government is doing alot more than most other governments. I should acknowledge that. But it could do so much more.
Stockpiling food for the entire US population was considered a no-brainer during the Cold War. Both Democrats and Republicans recognized the obvious importance of this. Do we live in less dangerous times now? Whether you think a severe pandemic or terrorism is the bigger threat, it seems obvious that we should stockpile enough food to feed everyone in case of emergency.
Mandating realistic emergency plans on the part of utilities, coupled with generous grants for necessary supplies and training, is another obvious step we should take. If this isn’t a National Security issue, what is?
Security during a national emergency is critical for National Security. Why on earth aren’t law enforcement departments being given the tools and training they need to support this important function? They need to know who their military contacts will be in an emergency and how they will coordinate their efforts.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m a strong advocate for personal prepping. But government prepping is also critical. In this case, 1 out of 2 is bad.
I may be wrong, but I think strong pressure from the blogoshere and a few key media outlets helped liberate many H5N1 sequences. Maybe it’s time to mount a similar campaign to stimulate the governments of the world to do their jobs: Protect their Citizens.
Monotreme – at 11:22
I may be wrong but even during the height of the cold war there was VERY little storage of food for consumption of the entire nation. There were some bomb shelters here and there but nowhere near enough food for everyone. I don’t even think it would be possible. I remember reading in several different places over the years there is about two weeks of food available to feed everyone. Think of the storage issues. It is much better to have people prep for themselves, as we saw during Katrina the folks who relied on the government were pretty much scr______!
Monotreme – at 10:12 anon_22 – at 10:33 Jefiner – at 10:25
I think what you are going to see are islands of sanity. I know for a fact that the City of West Palm Beach and Palm Beach County and moving forward very fast. They understand the social problem as opposed to the Medical Problem. They have an aggresive plan and supplies in place to keep the lights on and the water flowing. What their biggest concern is the counties that are to the south namely Brevard and Broward (Ft Lauderdale and Miami) If they do it right and the southern counties do not, the influx from the south will overburden their system. With the way roads work in that part of the state, they will not be able to stop the stream north even if all of their officers were available, and they know that the National Guard will not support them as the Governor has to help the whole state. Catch 22. We prepped and planned, others did not and we are going to pay for the failure.
Monotreme you are right that the Feds could order it. However we then go back to the denial problem that Anon_22 was trying to explain (very will I might add). The naysayers and quacks will scream that this is all a fake and the government is just wasting money or if they would just buy my majic necklace all would be right with the world. So we are back to catch-22 again. Those that are in the position to make the right choices do not because of the heat from those that do not know what day it is.
Anon_22 is so very correct when she says that we need strong leaders that will take this on, however, I have seen none yet that are high enough up in the food chain to make the differance that is needed.
Thanks for all of the great comments here! I have to agree with Monotreme that anger will take us further than despair or numbness. It is daunting to try to comprehend a 50% CFR…. but the human race has been faced with situation before. We’ve survived this in the past, and we will survive it now if it comes down to this. Being human beings, we will also find a way to rise above even this and still flourish on the other side.
I have watched a really good friend battle breast cancer and ovarian cancer in the past 2 years. I never doubted that she would survive. Her righteous anger that her life was her own and she would not succumb was awe inspiring to behold. She’s conquered both, and she is the type of person who will survive the bird flu simply to spit in its eye.
Everyone talks a lot about how we are not as hardy as our 1918 ancestors and about how we will not be able to cope with the death rates. I don’t agree!! I think that we will all surprise each other with how well we raise above the ashes.
Perhaps it is because I live in the poorest area of the US that I believe this. Through out the years, I have watched a lot of people survive things I would not have thought it possible to survive. Not only do they survive, they find ways to flourish.
I do not know how bad the bird flu will be. I do not know how many modern conveniences I will no longer have. I shudder to look around a room and imagine half of the people gone. What if my 2 yr old daughter is among them? I am luckier than most as I already live in the country. I used to live in the big city, but I didn’t want my daughter there. I have a lot of unused land to plant in and hope for the best.
I also realize one other important fact that keeps me going. If I can keep my family together and going, I will emerge from the bird flu triumphant! I am fully committed to making sure that we have the basics to survive, and I pray that we begin to flourish. My anger to survive and make sure that my daughter survives will fuel my fight against the odds. And, if the worst happens and my daughter doesn’t survive, it will be my duty to ensure that someone else’s daughter survives. No one will be able to stop me. Maybe you have not been fortunate enough to stand shoulder to shoulder with your neighbors in a time of crisis, but I have. We will all find something inside to keep ourselves going. We will be ordinary people accomplishing extraordinary things in impossible times. We will succeed here.
There is no mega disaster that the human race has not weathered and overcome. We will proceed with gallows humor and with denial. There will be some people who will sacrifice everything to ensure that others make it. One of my friends always responds about bird flu and global warning the same way. ‘Global warming allows viruses to try and wipe us from the planet. The bird flu will decrease global warming with a high death rate. We will rebuild, and global warming will continue. You seeing the pattern here, too?’ Maybe she is right. Who knows? Either way, perhaps we can reshape our world on the other side into a better paradigm this time…..
I personally have no faith in the government whatsoever-and this is not a political rant-it dosn’t matter who is in office. I come from deep Appalachia. At the turn of the centuary It was a self sufficent place-even thriving in many parts-yeah, yeah, I know ALL the sterotypes. Compaired to other parts of the country, Appalachia was “material Goods” poor-but people grew their own food, and stored it through the winter, Produced much of what they needed at home, traded for the rest, had little or no debt, had the highest percentage of home ownership in the country (still do-very few renters here) Families were solid, and community support was at a level that we can not even imagine today. Oh yes there were problems, there are problems everywhere, but there was an incredable spirit of independance. this was destroyed. The Government turned self sufficent productive people off their lands to build parks for the rest of the country, for mineral ore and timber for the rest of the country, a power supply (TVA) for the rest of the country, a massive, highly dangerous top secret nuclear Facility (y-12 at Oak Ridge) yes to win the war, but its still there, a National Lab-for the rest of the country) a major highway system, so the rest of the country could zip through this area as quickly as they can. The people were mocked, humiliated, demorilized, villified. The govenment tossed in a few bucks for “aid”-to a proud people who would rather starve than accept a handout and for “development” to a self contained thriving independant culture.
These are people who nursed their sick and buried their dead through round after round after round of disease-influenza, tuberculosis, cholorea, you name it. I once walked through the remains of a farmstead where one day a traveling salesman came across the entire family, dead in their beds-and one on the floor- of (we’re quessing) typhoid fever. The community came in, took away the animals, buried the dead, burned down the house, (to prevent further contagion) and left the blackened remains as a reminder.
These folks knew had to prepare-without electricty- for a SIP that lasted not two weeks but the entire winter, and knew how to keep going year after year after year. And dispite the grimness of it all, managed to produce lively distinctive music, exquisite crafts, awesome satisfing food, deep faith and still, when their country needed them to fight its wars, even up to this riduculous conflict we are now engaged in, the men turn out in record numbers, volunteering to do what needs to be done.
yeah it will be grim-but I think we’ll come out allright on the other side.
You can look at history in two ways. The negative aspects are that human fatality rates exceeding 50% have pretty much wiped some civilizations off the map-they did NOT survive. Examples are several island societies cited in the book “Collapse” as well as the SW US Indians, and the Incas, Aztecs, and Mayans. Once exposed to illnesses for which they had no immunity their societies disintegrated and effectively disappeared. The positive is that Europe lost 25% of its population during the Bubonic Plague around 1350, but a century later Europe was doing fairly well and civilzation survived and actually got better (probably due to less pollution and a scarcity of labor improving incomes). So, I don’t think it is true that “there is no mega disaster that the human race has not weathered and overcome.” Some times we have and some times we have not.
Monotreme – at 10:12
“We can’t make our neighbors prepare. But the federal government could stockpile food for them. It hasn’t.”
The federal government can and will take all available food stocks (raw or processed) if a severe pandemic occurs. Why stockpile what you can take control of under emergency orders? Payment will take place after the emergency is past. There is a large amount of grains in silos and bins in the midwest. Quiet feeding corn to farm animals and you immediately have a huge amount available for people. Stockpiling by the government is not needed. They will just take what is needed when it is needed, and truck it to where it is needed. Problem solved.
“We can’t force our Utilities to prepare by buying PPE, tamiflu for workers, backup generators, all necessary supplies to operate independently, etc. But the federal government could mandate this. It hasn’t.”
Again, the government will seize what is available and distribute according to need. Pay later. Problem solved.
“We can’t give orders to the National Guard or the US military insisting that they co-ordinate with local law enforcement to develop detailed security plans for a severe pandemic. But the federal government could. It hasn’t.”
I suspect the plans have already been drawn up (remember the National Guard on the US/Mexico border) and are continuously being modified adapted to circumstances as they develop. Much of the protocal probably has been drawn up concerning National Guard coordination with state and local law enforcement. This is not something they are going to publicize though. Problem probably already solved, but they just ain’t telling us.
Moral of the story is why purchase and stockpile certain goods when you can seize them utilizing emergency powers, then reimburse the owners later? If I am correct, then all that needs to be done right now is to have the process on paper and the pertinent data concerning locations and amounts of goods/equipment established. I should also say they likely are putting together the pertinent data concerning essential personel, but that one spooks me a bit, so let’s pretend I didn’t say that part.
Really, either we believe that the government is jumping through hoops trying to get a handle on the situation and prepare, or we believe that they can’t and won’t do anything. I personally believe they are jumping throught hoops. The Katrina fiasco was a heads up and pointed out where the weakness are located. State and local governments screwed up big time, and then a federal agency FEMA topped them by screwing up even worse. I think the lessons learned from that event has caused changes to occur within the Department of Homeland Security, the military, and the government emergency response process overall.
The majority of the news media are totally focused on the insane story of Jon Bonnett. Have you noticed that it is all that is talked about? And then to consider the possiblity that it is a purposeful false distraction? Given the state of the world on so very very many challenging fronts, it is such a sad commentary of our societies that the masses are so easily occupied. Forget the concept of anything that has to do with living real life. So many people are unhappy with the life they lead that any distraction is greedily grasped onto. The prospect that their life could get even worse is beyond even a glimmer of acknowledgement, let alone thinking about preparing to weather the storm. A Shift is coming, and many have no clue as to what it will bring, let alone how to imagine living through it, so they just simply do not do either. The greatest pain I fear is for us who are able to focus on such a bigger picture, but will not be able to help all that we wish we could. The “I told you so” will be too too painfully thought for years to come. Here’s to a brighter more living filled future, after.
Green Mom - Sounds like you and I are from the same area!
Since the human race is still here and thriving, I think that it’s safe to say that no mega disaster has wiped us out yet…. There is always a first time. 99% of all species ever to walk the earth are dead. Why would you think that we are any different?
Hi everyone. While reading the interesting comments, I was wondering if there was another way around this mountain…
…and I came to the conclusion that it is very difficult to ignore cold hard logic…or at least you can ignore it but it hurts in the glare of the headlights.
The closest analogy to the situation we unfortunately find ourselves in with respect to H5N1 is the Asian Tsunami of Dec. 2004…
…The last major tsunami in the region was in 1830…last two significant flu pandmeics, 1918 and 1830. The 1830 pandemic was relatively as bad or worse than 1918…Dr. Osterholm…
…the death toll in 1830 was thought to be 25,000–50,000 persons…
…The answer of the experts in response to questions about the lack of a tsunami warning system in the Indian Ocean was that the 1830 tsunami was a one-off, never to be repeated…
…somewhere there must be a written assessment from the 1990′s or later, downplaying the risk from a tsunami because I know that one Canadian scientist hounded them for more than twenty-years on the need for the installation of a system…
…If we could find such writings we could put this all in context and release it to the world as ‘The Concerned Members of Flu Wiki’…like a press release…similar to what Corn did earlier this year.
Pretty hard to argue with the facts and the similarities.
Just a thought to consider…Thanks.
Blue Ridge MM - “I also realize one other important fact that keeps me going. If I can keep my family together and going, I will emerge from the bird flu triumphant! I am fully committed to making sure that we have the basics to survive, and I pray that we begin to flourish. My anger to survive and make sure that my daughter survives will fuel my fight against the odds. “
bravo! that is exactly how I feel - there are so many untapped resources within ourselves, and we are intellegent and, dare I say, angry, enough to prevail ultimately! That is what I hold on to.
Sorry, the death toll from the tsunami in 1830 was 25–50,000 people…I read the death toll from the 1830 pandemic but I can’t remember it…it is in Dr. Osterholms May 2005 article in the New England Journal or Medicine article…I think.
Green Mom – at 11:56
Well said.
The same could be said for much of the country folk around the country. Here in Oklahoma, country people were capable at the turn of the century of providing the bulk of their needs without any outside assistance. With the farm policy of the government over the past 50 years or so, small farmers are almost a thing of the past. Cheap food for the cities has been the watch word, and the farmers just better get bigger or get out. Now it is going towards cheap food from abroad (think Brazil) and farmers better compete or get out so we can build more subdivisions. It has not gotten to that extreme yet, we still produce a huge amount of our own food (see previous post) but in another 25 or 50 years (barring a severe catastrophe like panflu) we will have outsourced our ability to provide for ourselves.
Southern Appalacian folk and country folk in general have been held in derision for way to long. In this day and time, I have begun to think that coutry folk are the only normal ones and the rest of the country has gone insane. Throughout history, the country way of life has been the norm until very recently. Now all of the sudden the megacities seem to dictate what is “normal” and all others that disagree must be ignorant conservative rubes.
I am afraid the “old normal” is about to return with a vengence. We all better prepare.
That rant has been sitting in me for some time and your post seemed to just set it off. I don’t mean to offend. It’s just that I can see the lack of wisdom in the direction our society is heading, but can do nothing about it. What will happen, will happen. The country folk will deal with it, survive, and move on. Always have, and always will.
Okieman. I am from Canada. I would have added to your “rant” but I couldn’t…you have said it better than I could and left nothing of my frustration out.
Their are many agriculturists around the world that would agree with you, Green Mom and Blue Ridge Mountain Mom.
By the way, you might find it slightly amusing or perplexing that we in Canada greatly admire the levels of support the US Government gives to their farmers in comparison with the Canadian Government that unilaterally removed farm subsidies in the early 1990′s…stating in saving significant funds that the rest of the world would follow their example…they didn’t!!!.
Agriculture areas have little significance because due to shrinking numbers they have lost political power…Governments get re-elected in the short-term by cutting funding to ‘whining farmers’…unfortunately, their comeupance isn’t far away.
Monotreme, Anon 22, Tom DVM, Okieman, and many others, who have posted here over the past day,
The US government is indeed preparing, but nothing to the scale needed. Already, stocks of N95 masks are becoming harder for individuals to procure - as well as latex gloves, and other PPE - because suppliers are diverting production to dedicated government and large corporate orders instead of retail. Some of the major utility companies are in the second of several phases of preparing sustaining operations for high absentee rates and providing extra security (see several of the items added to Wiki starting in July about Con Ed and others - it was interesting reading during the forum outage the other day).
But the issues of food and health care are discouraging. No doubt heroic efforts will be made, and some areas will be blessed with local and municipal planners who were ahead of the curve that can save lives by being better prepared. We see this time and again in earthquakes and hurricanes and blizzards, but this will be the exception, not the rule.
Society would be better prepared to hear and accept that an asteroid had been discovered hurtling toward us, and bank our hopes on blowing it out of the sky with nukes. This is the damnable part of this threat, no one has made movies about it for 30 years to prepare us, the end of the Cold War and triumph of Capitalism over Communism has turned the world into “mini-Americas” in pursuit of a better bottom line.
Less than 20% of the machining operations needed to make or repair equipment in the US or Britain are done in those countries - labor cost were reduced by sending those operations to developing nations. With that went the skills and knowledge, so we are hanging our hopes on “redundant spares” in critical machinery to keep infrastructure functioning. Now, the folly of this mindset may be clear, but there isn’t time to change the systems before it is likely that H5N1 will adapt to sustain H2H2H.
Personal preparation will save many from the horror and virus without a doubt - initially. I read some of Mr. Sandman’s writings on risk communications and realize that much of what MSM and official sources are doing is following his textbook. Our present leaders are in many ways just like President Wilson in 1918, trying to turn all focus to winning a war of humanity - rather than a war against humanity. But who will be there to lead after it is over? Will survivors want to follow a President or Prime Minister who did not properly prepare the populace or speak truthfully when confronted by a pandemic?
As Jenifer and Ocean2 and Crazy American Lady in the Village indicated, on a personal level it becomes too much to wrap the mind around and produces fear beyond the ability to find a way to act proportionately - without seeming an alarmist or extremist or just plain insane. That is what has knocked the wind from my sails of preparation. Add this to the need to find work adequate to afford increased preparations while living day-to-day and moving out to an area I feel safer in - this is more than my support network can handle. My wife also just found out her company is being sold off and her job “may” be transferred a buyer, but the benefits she had holding her to it end when the doors close in January.
I really am on my own, as are all of us. I don’t think I’m really in denial. I think I am far too aware of reality, and aware of my own capacities in light of this reality. The problem daunting me is how to do anything beyond the day-to-day until some of the events required to accomplish getting re-employed (a full-time job in and of itself) are completed - knowing each day it takes is a day closer to the true outbreak. If I had not already known the threat coming, I’d be better off in denial.
I’ve wrapped my mind aroung the Avian Flu and what can happen. Talking to people its Iran and the fanatical,suicidal zeal of the radical terrorists which are its main concern. They are here, there and everywhere. My conversations tend to be what interests the person I am conversing with, and that is what is on a lot of people minds. That, and personal concerns. Avian flu is at the bottom of their lists of concerns.
I am thinking that we tend to come full circle - at first when we suddenly understand how frightening this BF can be, we worry and start to prep and try to warn others - live in a constant state of alert - like the deer in my woods, startle at the rustle of a leaf - but in the end 50 % of them die as a result of a hunter’s bullet or a stealthy wolf that they just didnt have time to react to - the bottom line is that all life will end - there is absolutely nothing we can do to prevent that as much as we might wish otherwise - yes we can maybe forestall death temporarily, through good medicine or a cellar full of preps, but in the END, all we have is the END - much of what we do, struggling to survive, only holds off the inevitable for a short while - I think we should be focussing on getting the most out of LIFE for the remaining time we have on this earth, being reasonably prudent for day to day dangers, love one another and try to be brave!
I am originally from Appalachia.
I just you to know that we now have an official name. “Appalachian Americans”
Psychologically I feel myself totallly preped. I will never prep more than this. It is definatly my time to detatch myself from all of this for a time, and simply fully enjoy what is here and now. The more I read that the world will be changed completely, the more I remove myself from it. Its time to decompress for me, like the old time divers who came up slowly from the depths of the sea. Time to remove Avian flu from my day to day life completely.
I find my brain going in two different directions: #1 as horrible as the 1918 pandemic flu was, it barely made the history books — folks moved on to the Great Depression, WWII and other events. Lots of folks survived.
H5N1 is a bigger tease than Gypsy Rose. We can guess what is behind the peeks we get but we just don’t know for sure — our imagination gets hot and bothered long before we know what parts are real.
Okieman – at 12:16,
I agree with your (and others) comments about the sapping of independence by many well-intentioned but poorly thought out government programs. I grew up South of the Mason-Dixon line and I understand some of the bitterness expressed by rural folks regarding the patronizing and unhelpful role some from other regions have assumed. Again, I fully support individual/family prepping. Further, I support those with means to acquire goods that will allow them to help their community. I can’t feed everyone in my neighborhood, but I can buy some bottles of children’s vitamins to hand out to those who are living on government rations.
But I think you are wrong when you argue that the government can do everything at the last minute. That is not going to work, IMO. Once the pandemic starts, people start dying very fast. This will include the military, national guard and law enforcement, if they aren’t prepared. And in NYC, I guarantee you, they aren’t. How will they be able to co-ordinate their efforts in the middle of a chaotic meltdown, with bodies piling up on the street? Remember the confusion during 9/11? During Katrina? No-one knew who was in charge. They couldn’t even communicate with each other. This has not improved. It needs to. For pandemic flu, for terrorism, for natural disasters, etc.
Same argument for food. Who is going to package and deliver it? Unprotected farmers and truck drivers? Suppose they are too scared? Should they be forced to endanger their lives and their families lives at gunpoint? Just because it was too much trouble to package everything up ahead of time?
TRay75 is right about the PPE. There isn’t enough. I can tell you for a fact that last year at this time factories that produce PPE were not functioning at full capacity. Now they are, but it may be too late. And the orders for the US are not nearly enough. During a pandemic, how on earth are we going to whip N-100′s and PPAR at the last minute? Not gonna happen.
If the pandemic occurs this fall/winter, I’m sure the government will seize whatever it can get, but that won’t be enough for everyone. So, they will pick certain areas to save. I think you and I are in agreement as to what those areas are. But I’m not prepared to write off the 8 million people of New York City because the Feds can’t be bothered to plan ahead.
New York City may not be able to be saved, but New Yorkers can be. And should be.
Monotreme. If the Government leaves NYC with no support, what happens to the inhabitants? They aren’t going to roll over and die…does that not mean that the surrounding countryside is in fact written off and becomes collateral damage as well.
Seems me it could produce a ‘snowball effect’.
For a look at food storage during the Cold War:
The great lesson I learned in preparing for Y2K was; don’t do anything that you will regret if nothing happens. Some of the most troubling issues of guns and bullets I resolved for myself bacd in 1998. That was when I began my focus on being able to have the knowledge and equipment to hunt, fish, trap, forage and grow what would be needed for survival. Building the right library of skills is important. Those who survive will come together in small communities. different poeple will bring different skills and abilities. Life will go on and this challenge will bring out the best in many people.
Prepare for the worst and if it is less severe then all the better. I too went through the phase of putting forth great effort to alert others to the need to prepare, to little or no avail. So I let go and focussed my energies back on my family preparations.
I have a clear sense of what I am preparing for and need to stay away from this site for a week at a time so I can focus on what I can do. As the old saying goes, “Stop lliving in the problem and start living in the solution.” The very real heart wrenching drama of of many of these threads is both addictive and depressing for me at times. I have to practice self discipline to stay focuessd on what I can do and to enjoy the moment as much as possible.
Even with the worst case scenario as a possibility, those who prepare and use common sense will most likely, barring the unforseen be in the upper half who survive. the real challenge is to do so with honor, integrity and to the degree possible compassion.
Tom DVM – at 15:32
If the Government leaves NYC with no support, what happens to the inhabitants? They aren’t going to roll over and die…does that not mean that the surrounding countryside is in fact written off and becomes collateral damage as well.
Seems me it could produce a ‘snowball effect’.
Yep. The roads may be blocked, which will prevent large numbers of people driving out, but there is no way to stop people from walking out. My rule of thumb is that the area within 200 miles of a megacity is doomed if the megacity goes down.
btw, I like your idea about a letter Fluwikians can send to their represenatives. Let’s see where this thread takes us, but I feel another Opinion coming on.
Anon_22 You and I have taken exception to respectfully disagree on the point of risk communication. I look the monster in the face (as you do) and I tell it like it is with no lies, no distortion, no shouting, and as clearly as I can. Here is why I do that…When raising my child I said to her, if you want to know the answer to a question - just ask. If you don’t want to know the answer to a question - don’t ask. But you should know this, “I will always tell you the truth.” If you think you are ready to hear the answers, then let us talk about it. This has been one of the things I have come to treasure in my relationship with this very special person (grin) i.e. My child trusts me to tell the truth. I never lie. We have a relationship built on trust and respect and love. Now, look at this wiki, if we all follow the text on risk communication, where does it lead us. We first say, “.5CFR” and finally we say “25%CFR.” I ask you, what has this done to our credibility? As a nation we practice through corporate control of our media a dumbing down of our democracy and political, scientific, and sociological discourse. This has not been a positive thing for our country. When I was younger I lived in a college town that was undergoing rapid growth that threatened the Towns water, schools, and farm land…it was a special place to live and everyone wanted in. Of course that would destroy exactly what folks were seeking. So, (and here is one idea for the wiki community) I went to Town Hall and took out nomination papers and ran for Office. I ran not to win, but to shape the debate, by ignoring the questions I was asked and talking about what the residents needed to hear. I lost, but the Town was saved by my initiative. Zoning and water regulations were passed that restricted the size of the developments etc. Don’t lament the present situation, do something about it.
Monotreme.
Unless they are building a fence at 200 miles, I don’t see this ending there…once the domino’s start falling, it seems to me that it could run a long way before it stopped…
…I honestly don’t like thinking about it and in my worst case scenario the CFR would be ten percent with another ten percent dead due to collateral damage…infrastructure, healthcare collapse, no medications etc…ten million dead in the USA and 1 million in Canada.
…two years ago when I first made this prediction, I was a laughing stock…now it is closer to a best case scenario then a worst.
I wasn’t talking about sending a letter to representatives…I was talking about making an irrefutable logical scientific and philosophical argument that the regulatory authorities and Governments couldn’t spin…put it in a neat package with a bow and then shove it down their throats.
/:0)
I deeply appreciate this site and those who contribute to it so well. This has been an immesuable help in so many specific ways.
I deeply agree with Dude at 16:50. For sevral years I found it very disconcerting for some expert to say it could be 50% infection rate with 5% CFR or it could be nothing. To me it is much more helpful for someone to say my best estimate is in this range xyz. Then I am responsible to integrate that estimate into my own understanding. The above rates quoted were Michael Osterholm in the July/August 2005 issue of Foreign Affairs. Or Laurie Garrett’s estimate of a 30% attack rate and a CFR of 20% in the same issue. These are just a few of those who are saying something beyond the party line. I feel this has the high potential for a break down in society. So that is my personal focus of preparation. I am not trying to convince anyone else, but presenting the best scintific evidence available that a true worst case scenarioi is possible if not probable.
Is is interesting to me that I have now twice posted the link to the Ravalli County estimates (02:07) and even here not one person has indicated that they have read it and ageed or disagreed with the prediction of the infectiious disease experts at the rocky Mountain BioSecurity Lab. That is why I agreed with the premises of “Denial as an adjustment reaction.”
I can’t think about it so I will ignore it. I had the same experience back in May with a professor at the local college specialing in infectious disease planning. She was working on her doctorate and was happy to talk via emial until I sent her that article and asked for her opinion.
This thread reminds me of something discussed on TV a while ago-how some people are more ‘survival’ oriented ie they check out the fire exits, listen to the airline attendants giving safety lectures, plan escape routes. The report said those people tended to be the ones who survived-I think it’s because they were open to the possibilty of a problem occuring and gave a few minutes to preparing a simple escape plan.
How would we be any different? If we flew together we could be the ones listening. I’ve always checked out where the fire exits and fire extinguishers are, and if traveling, where my hotel room is in relation to the fire steps.
We may not be as carefree as we’d like, but then again, perhaps we’ve inherited a certain survivor gene or tendency that makes us who we are. Perhaps this tendency saved one of our ancestor’s butt 200 or 2000 years ago, and so has lent itself to making us more aware? And by preparing, we increase the likelihood of survival for our future generations just a little..
Grace at 17:51
I perhaps am one of the few who actually took the time to acquaint myself with the exact location of emergency exits on planes, including counting rows and alternate exits in the opposite direction. As a licensed pilot, every time I climbed into my seat on an airliner (and that was hundreds of times) I did so with the asumption of my role as “orderly cargo”. In the event of an order to evacuate, I felt prepared to carry out whatever life-saving duties were required of me both to save myself and possibly others.
This exercise differs from that one in one essential quality. In the event of an aviation accident requiring my action, there was a beginning and an end to the exercise. After I had executed the necessary actions, things would return to normal, or I would be dead.
In the event of a pandemic, I am preparing to execute a series of never-ending steps until, What? When does it end. How do I know I have successfully completed the test and can relax?
That is whay I am tending to plan just a graspable number of steps oout, and then “Who the hell Knows”. What happens when the manual page reads “Congratulations on making it this far. Unfortunately, we don’t know what to tell you to do beyond this point. Good Luck..And above all, Dont Panic!”
Monotreme at 19:15 -
“The real plan of TPTB is to make as much money as possible and then bail out.”
So stinkin’ true, IMO.
Eccles. Are you sure you weren’t a philosophy major…that was really well said!!
OKbirdwatcher. When I read such an article as that which follows, I’d tend to agree with you: Public-private debate hijacks agenda at doctors’ meeting in P.E.I. “CHARLOTTETOWN (CP) - Like a virus that is resistant to cure, the issue of public-private health care in Canada is once again infecting the annual meeting of the Canadian Medical Association, underway in Prince Edward Island. […] Although the health of children is supposed to be the dominant theme for the four-day gathering of Canadian physicians, a dispute over who should become the next president-elect of the influential organization is overshadowing the agenda. […] “There are forces within our profession that stand to gain from private insurance and from private payment for medically necessary services,” says Martin, a Toronto physician and a staunch supporter of public health care.” Martin says the endless discussions are distracting doctors from moving forward on issues that really matter to patients, such as childhood health and the looming flu pandemic.
If this is a standard of what happens in modern countries, how in hell can we criticize what happens in “sub-standard” countries?
Denial? Which denial? Did you say denial? There’s no denial when it comes to money. Perhaps one way of increasing awareness of these _____ (fill the blanks) would be to make them to stand to gain money by preparing the world to the looming flu pandemic! So much bounty for each life saved!
Tom DVM – at 16:56
Unless they are building a fence at 200 miles, I don’t see this ending there
I picked that number because I don’t think people are likely to walk much further. And frankly, most people will die long before they get that far. Sorry to be so grim.
Grace RN and Eccles,
I am also one of those people who listens attentively to instructions on an airplane. I am careful to find the emergency exits. I suspect alot of Fluwikians are that sort of person as well.
My point on this thread is that our lives are also dependent on the “pilot”, ie, federal government. I want to make sure that guy goes through his checklist as well. The plane has not taken off yet, so now is the time to make sure he does.
Look at the issue from the viewpoint of TPTB.
If they announce a pandemic and one doesn’t happen, they are screwed.
If they don’t, if they are prepared and one happens, they survive, others don’t and they don’t get blamed. That’s a win for them……
Grace RN - Agreed. If this pandemic unfolds, natural selection will favor certain kinds of people, among them the people on Flu Wiki. Laurence Gonzales has written a fascinating book entitled Deep Survival about the qualities that help people survive in dangerous situations.
Here’s what survivors do, according to Gonzales:
1. Perceive, believe - Survivors perceive everything there is to know about their situation and move quickly past denial, anger, and depression to accept realities. They look inward for the resources they need to handle the situation, knowing their own response is the single factor they can control.
2. Stay calm. They use fear rather than succumbing to it. That’s what we are doing when we prep. They use humor when they need to.
3. Think/analyze/plan - They organize, set up routines, institute discipline. “They push away thoughts that their situation is hopeless.”
4. Take correct/decisive action - “They deal with what is within their power from moment to moment, hour to hour, day to day. They leave the rest behind.”
5. Celebrate successes (even the smallest ones) - In so doing, they maintain motivation and avoid hopelessness.
6. Count blessings - They are grateful to be alive, and they keep going, often, by caring for others.
7. Play (sing, play games, read, dance, recite poetry) - They keep minds active and occupied with positive tasks. They make meaning out of small rituals.
8. See beauty - They are attuned to wonder, beauty. They never stop seeing it where it can be found, even in the smallest things.
9. Believe that you will succeed - Survivors hold to the belief that they can prevail if they keep their wits about them and don’t give up.
10. Surrender - They accept discomforts without giving up to despair. “Put away the pain.”
11. Do whatever is necessary - They believe anything is possible and do it. “They are coldly rational about using the world, obtaining what they need, doing what they have to do.”
12. Never give up - Survivors are not discouraged by setbacks. They pick themselves up and start again. “There is always one more thing you can do.”
I figure if we go out having done all these things, we will have lived pretty darned heroically and will have nothing to regret about the way we met the life that was given to us on this incredibly beautiful planet.
Inky at 19:45: Great Post! Survivors view life as an adventure, not as some cookie-cutter, set-in-stone, and-they-lived-happily-everafter banality.
It is important how we die, how we conduct ourselves up to that point. We in the West have put so much emphasis on living because it was a never-ending candy store of choices. But the hard choices at the extremes will be the ones that survive you.
Monotreme – at 19:35
“My point on this thread is that our lives are also dependent on the “pilot”, ie, federal government. I want to make sure that guy goes through his checklist as well. The plane has not taken off yet, so now is the time to make sure he does.”
You speak as if you actually believe any national government has the best interest of the people at heart. I find very little evidence to support that assumption and quite a bit of evidence to indicate that government officals the world over have only their and their rich friends interest at heart.
Those in a place of knowledge and power have their own extensive plans and preparations already set up for themselves and thier families you can be assured. Imagine a couple of thousand acre ranch in Wyoming or Texas with everything money can buy stocked on it.
Or if one was bit more cynical he or she might think that TPTB may well see this as an opportuntiy in the USA for instance to doo away with the pesky congress and Supreme Court. It could be seen by some as a very real chance to be king with military rule to back it up.
On a more generous note, LMWatBullRun – at 19:35 said “Look at the issue from the viewpoint of TPTB. If they announce a pandemic and one doesn’t happen, they are screwed. “
I still people I have spoken to totally discredit any poassible of a pandemic because of the US vaccination effort made in reponse to the Fort Dix, NJ incident some years ago.
By the way has Mike Leavitt dropped off the radar screen since the end of May or is it just me.
InKy – at 19:45:I have for many years consitered myself a survivalist. In 1999 I started running. Just a little at first. In 2003 I ran my first marathon(26.2 miles)I came face to face with many of the things that Gonzales describes, both in training and in the actual race. The will to keep going after mile 20–21 and four hours on my feet gets flakey. I have now completed 3 marathons and am scheduled for another Sept 17th. It has proven to be a serious survival tool, showing me what my physical, mental and spritual limits are. I am slow, at least be marathoner standards. I have yet to finish in less than 5 hours, but I do cross that finish line! Kelly
jbl – at 20:11
You speak as if you actually believe any national government has the best interest of the people at heart.
Not at all. But we have our best interests at heart and now is the time for us to force the TPTB to prepare. We can do this by sending letters, emails, asking awkward questions at meetings, etc. As with the sequence issue, we need allies in the MSM. We need pundits to start asking hard questions in primetime.
So, Secretary Leavitt, how long are you prepared to hole up for? A year? Then why aren’t you recommending that to the American people?
So, Mayor Bloomberg, do you have stockpiles of food for New Yorkers in case of an emergency like a severe pandemic flu? Do you have a plan of action for security? Why aren’t health care workers in NYC being told to watch for patients from Asia with bird flu symptoms?
So, Director Gerberding, the CDC is using a 2% kill rate as the worst case scenario for a pandemic. Yet you know the current kill rate of H5N1 is over 50%, even in the large clusters. Why do you think it will drop to 2%? Go ahead, be technical, molecular biologists and virologists are watching and will whisper in my ear if you trot out some BS.
If we could get MSM on board, we could really apply pressure to these jokers.
jbl: By the way has Mike Leavitt dropped off the radar screen since the end of May or is it just me.
I noticed this as well. My interpretation: He doesn’t want to lie and he isn’t allowed to tell the truth, so he hides from the media. He has also had some ethics problems, but I don’t think they should affect his role in pandemic preparation.
Np1-Best wishes on your Sept marathon. I admire anyone who has put in all the time and effort to achieve a goal like that!
Inky Thanks so much for your post-I think I’m going to print it and put it on my refridgerator!
Inky -thank you! I’m going to get that book.
I didn’t think it was a coincidence that like-minded people ended up on fluwiki-and were willing and able to look past the sheer horror of panflu to start planning-planning to cope, planning to survive and planning to thrive post panflu.
Monotreme re:
“That is why I am tending to plan just a graspable number of steps out, and then “Who the hell Knows”. What happens when the manual page reads “Congratulations on making it this far. Unfortunately, we don’t know what to tell you to do beyond this point.”
IMO, this is a point too many of us are missing. There is only so much prepping anyone can do. We are all limited by the amount of money, space, time, strength, diligence and opportunity we have available to implement our prepping. When is enough enough? When we run out of any one critical thing we have available to us to work with.
And after that, we’ll just have to wing it.
Those of us who are best able to deal with CHANGE and recognize opportunities when we see them will likely be the most successful.
Will it keep us or our families from dying? Maybe, maybe not. The Spanish Flu found its way into even the most remote areas and so will the next pandemic. But we’ve overlooked the fact that every day will be different during the pandemic - just like it is today.
As long as we are alive, and actively thinking our way thru the problems (and joys) we face, we will have the best chance of STAYING that way.
gharris – at 13:53 WROTE the bottom line is that all life will end - there is absolutely nothing we can do to prevent that as much as we might wish otherwise - yes we can maybe forestall death temporarily, through good medicine or a cellar full of preps, but in the END, all we have is the END - much of what we do, struggling to survive, only holds off the inevitable for a short while - I think we should be focussing on getting the most out of LIFE for the remaining time we have on this earth, being reasonably prudent for day to day dangers, love one another and try to be brave!
SCW AZ REPLIES: Well said and how true.
Saddle Tramp
re: “And after that, we’ll just have to wing it….”
Very good point. can’t cover all the possiblities here. there are some we’ll never be able to think of!
When I was doing homecare/visitng nursing I developed-err stole-my motto. (Hope the Marines don’t mind)
Improvise. Adapt. Overcome.
Bottom line-overcome.
NP-1 I so admire you. I’d feel proud just to walk 26.2 miles! Good luck with your race and with every challenge we may face.
Grace RN - It’s a riveting book, and it’s relevant no matter what life we’re living.
Green Mom - Posting Gonzales’ list on the fridge sounds like a good “survivor” thing to do :-).
Speaking as a person who raised this question, (what is the worst possible case?)upon my arrival here, which question has been repeatedly debated both before and after my arrival on this site, My experience is that most folks have a hard time wrapping their minds around a really horrific event. For those who watch the nightly news and read the WSJ, thinking about a major disaster quaggles them.
I agree with Eccles, too, in that once things get to a certain point there are no additional preparations to make. For example, I have read serious studies that tell me that the odds that I will die prematurely as a result of asteroidal impact are 1 in 20,000. That is a comparatively large risk, but there is no point in making a lot of special preparations for that eventuality other than being aware of the risk (and staying in shape!)
Similarly, for H5N1, I have made preparations but if this goes pandemic with 50% infection and 50% CFR, the world as we know it will come to an end. Civilization as we know will come to an end as the result of a lesser event, ala 1918. I have made some preparations for that event, too, but since I am not Bill Gates, the material prep I can do is limited.
The bottom line is that being prepared is first and foremost a MENTAL thing. The simple awareness that the status quo is subject to drastic change on short notice makes a huge difference in your ability to respond quickly.
Inky, Thank you. It gave me a chill when I read it. It resonates with my personality. I also have hand tools and seeds for use when I just can’t see any further into the future (failed to pay the electric bill on my crystal ball) and at that time I really hope there will be some way to talk with the members of this community. We may need each others skills to make use of an infrastructure that requires many hands….or maybe we will just decide that there are other ways to live your life. I would love to see the sky blue, the air clean, the ocean alive, and our days not spent in endless pursuit of the excess dollar. We need not dominate all of nature, but we must learn to live in harmony with our ecosystems and take/do only what does not upset the balance. We can’t populate at will. I have one child because that is what all of us must do for generations to sustain our existence on our planet. Reproductive freedom as we practice it is eventual suicide. It is one of the root causes of our current plight. Nature abhors a monoculture and will use whatever tools that are at hand (H5N1) to bring us into balance…and we mammalians are in her cross hairs. Hey, but I am a shifty guy and still have that opposing thumb…hmmmm.
Here’s some charming news that’s escaping notice-
“In response to findings by Chulalongkorn University scientists that a new form [i.e. strain] of the virus had been detected in Nakhon Phanom, Paijit said this strain had yet to infect humans. The virus was found in poultry and it would probably be more virulent than the old one, he said.”
Promed Snip from the fouth report on page,- this is in regards to a new H5N1 poultry strain in Thailand. Why do they think it will be more virulent? This can’t happening, my adjustment reaction can’t take anymore.
I do wish WHO, etc. would change the CFR estimate from 2–7 million. It’s not impressive enough; more people die than that every year anyway, so why should the public get that concerned. They may be realizing soon that they have made a “grave” mistake
Monotreme:
We are a country who elects officials to represent us without asking for one or two examples to prove they are basic humanitarians or care about the suffering of others. And no, perfect church attendance doesn’t count. If we vote for representatives who haven’t shared a circumstance where they risked their own health and safety for another why would we expect them to care or share resources with the people who elected them? People have the power to make politicians do a 360 and we rarely exercise it. We could start this election and demand to ask the candidate to share something they’ve done to prove to us they are caring, concerned people. (Working summers as a candy stripper). And no, their mom’s opinion doesn’t count. It is one way, to make sure our representatives think about and support legistation that actually helps us during emergiencies like pandemic flu.
I can’t be angry or numb when we are getting exactly what we voted for—PR magic, wizardery, and good ole fashioned lying.
I suspect you’re right about pushing the sequences through blogs. I didn’t believe it would work and was happy when it did. I suspect the move is to late to change outcome at this point. I’m glad “this concept” is finally a thread. Even here, people tend to quote history etc instead of just saying things like—the southern gulf coast states will be in a hell of a fix if the bodies aren’t buried proomptly and appropriately. Ever seen high heat and high humidity effects on a dead body? Typhus will pay a visit and then malaria, yellow fever, encephalitis. If local govt breaks down here and the chemical skeeter blanket fails—that’s what we’ll see in the worst case scenario. We will have to help bury the bodies or die of deadly disease if we don’t. Everyone matters or no one does.
Closed and continued here