This is the 2nd part of this thread
In response to many excellent comments, I have a few thoughts.
On the topic of communication, the problem with telling it like it is, is that we have no hard evidence to suggest exactly what the ‘it’ might be. We know too little about how flu viruses evolve, much of what we think is at best educated guesses.
Communicating something that is hard to accept or where there are lots of naysayers is like fighting guerrilla warfare or fighting terroritsts its asymmetric warfare. Whereas the guerrillas or terrorists only have to win occasionally to win, governments or proper armies have to win every time to not lose. In the same way, you only need to be proven wrong once, and your credibility is shot.
When there are good reasons to challenge established thinking, I dont have a problem saying it, eg that there is no solid science that shows the CFR will always drop significantly.
The other point is about preparing for the worst case scenario. Personally, I dont think you can really prepare for it, at least not in a specific way with targeted outcomes. This is because when things are too far from our normal reality, our extrapolations wont work. What we imagine now would likely be entirely inaccurate cos we don’t have any real experience to draw on.
In addition, consequences will interact with other consequences to produce further ones, so that the end results can be tremendously complex and unpredictable. Like what you get when you shake up a kaleidoscope the same number of pieces of color paper produces different patterns every time, and the variations are huge.
I do think also that after a certain point, it becomes a case of diminishing returns.
For quite a few years now I have felt that a great chastisement was soon to occur upon this earth. The Old Testament was written in part to serve as a tutor. To teach us a number of things, not least being how God deals with a people that turns from him. He is merciful and patient (remember Jonah and the City of Nineveh that was spared when they repented), but also a just God, and ultimately must mete out justice (remember Sodom and Gomorrah). Many times God’s justice serves as a chastisement for the survivors, to turn them back to Him (remember the Israelites in the wilderness, and many times afterwards).
I believe a chastisement is likely coming our way. What should be the worst case scenario adjustment reaction? To turn back to Him.
As far as physical preparation goes for this thing coming toward us, I believe our government is trying its best to prepare. But it will do no good, the task is too large. Just as the government has warned time and again, it will be every community on its own. Few listen and prepare (remember Noah).
I believe that there will be a greater than 50% infection rate and a 90%+ CFR. People will be unable to avoid each other (50% infected) and the health care system will collapse (no ventilators + no tamiflu = 90% CFR in my opinion) Civilization will not survive intact. Something different will come out the other side.
I have been reading and posting on this site for quiet some time now. I know the rules. Sometimes though, one must say what needs to be said.
Maybe I am wrong about all this coming soon. Maybe in God’s merciful patience it will all be forstalled for some time into the future. But heed this warning, change what needs changing, hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
Okieman at 00:07 My DW’s brother lives in New York. He does not want to hear anything about AI and has told her so over 6 months ago. Today as they were talking on the phone he mentioned that all of the people around him are starting to take on the winter blah’s and it is not even Labor day. He says that it feels like people are getting ready for a long hard winter and does not understand it. I did not talk to him, yet I understand it. With all of the news on the War’s, the threats to avaiton and rise in prices due to fuel, it has created a general feeling of unease. AI has been talked about and people do know that it exist but it is just one more thing which fuels the unease. They do not know why they feel this way just that they do. It could be the survival mode starting to set in just before the SHTF, in may very humble opinion.
Well while the conscious denies, perhaps the subconscious is acutely aware of what’s coming… thus the malaise reaction.
I have to admit it myself.
I’ve had the impending felling of an “early winter” since July.
Make that FEELING
Time for bed.
And of course worst case scenarios are just that, worst case scenarios, belonging to the extreme outer end of possibilities. Meaning that the chance of any of these scenarios happening is low not high.
Yep.
High Probability, High impact Low Probability, High impact
This worst case scenario is currently low probability, VERY high impact.
And with Indonesia clusters, I’d rate it as medium probability, high impact.
anon_22 at 23:45
“On the topic of communication, the problem with telling it like it is, is that we have no hard evidence to suggest exactly what the it might be. We know too little about how flu viruses evolve, much of what we think is at best educated guesses.”
We are not just guided by the science of the sequences. If a virologist could tell me exactly what changes are necessary for a pandemic version of a virus and could also tell me what configuration is necessary for the high lethality factor, then we are at a starting point (but they can’t). Even then, we don’t know how the evolution will proceed. So I agree with you. The problem for me comes with the fact that we also have a large amount of inferential data in the form of the epidemiology of this virus. What is the current CFR? We know that pretty much (not exact). Did we get that from the science of the sequences? no. After the fact we look at the sequences and say maybe it was this or that. Can the science of the sequences tell us if this virus will mitigate it’s virulence if efficient H-H is obtained? no. Can it tell us it will not? no. So, what does the real life experiences tell us then? If anything, it is getting more virulent than it was once. So, given the only information I can count on, I speak of the current situation when I communicate the risks, but I also inform them of the issues.
“Communicating something that is hard to accept or where there are lots of naysayers is like fighting guerrilla warfare or fighting terrorists its asymmetric warfare. Whereas the guerrillas or terrorists only have to win occasionally to win, governments or proper armies have to win every time to not lose. In the same way, you only need to be proven wrong once, and your credibility is shot.”
I agree. But (I am so predictable -grin)I would rather state what is now happening than an obvious lie that is repeated by the Governments that have an agenda that I don’t agree with. A CFR of .2% or 1% or 2% etc. fly in the face of what we see right now. It is not credible to state such figures…how can I be proven wrong by telling it like is? There is no argument if I use the WHO figures - it is somewhat higher if I use the best guess analysis, but it is bad enough news with just the WHO data. So I don’t see why you think a worse case projection based on real information could shoot your credibility.
“The other point is about preparing for the worst case scenario. Personally, I dont think you can really prepare for it, at least not in a specific way with targeted outcomes. This is because when things are too far from our normal reality, our extrapolations wont work. What we imagine now would likely be entirely inaccurate cos we dont have any real experience to draw on.”
In the sort term you can plan for the worst case, shelter in place. After that you are on the money. In all following circumstances, be flexible and keep your options open…have backup plans…plan for what you can see. I play chess and I can predict many potential plans and come up with the best fit and revise as needed. The “experience” will be only one factor. You can learn, adjust, build new relationships etc. You are a really intelligent person who I admire and I think you will do much better than you are predicting for yourself and us. I also think it will be entirely out of the realm of our experience, but there has not been a stage in my life where that has NOT been true. I have seen the time of no computers and now I am a computer consultant. I have seen childhood friends come down with polio and now that has changed.
The thing that does give me great concern is the persistence of this bug in the environment even after a “wave” passes. The animal reservoirs, the grass, the water, the door knobs and it’s long life. Were going to need more masks and gloves and bleach than I can imagine. Was that (persistence) taken into account in the models that you presented?
This wikie is amazing in that it has changed prepping focus from short term survival to long term. I’m thinking more along the lines of how much fishing line, garden seeds, abd shot gun shells will I need for the rest of my life (rather than how much peanut butter will I need for 18 months)
I also have given worst case extensive thought and changed my prep goal from 18 months back to about 6 months. Reason being I think it will be over rather quickly - many times more deaths from collateral damage than flu.
As I posted once before on a previous thread, I believe it is very odd that the Govt and EVERY emergency prepareness organization would recommend that everybody nationwide should have 2 weeks worth of WATER stored up.
Other than a Katrina - like disaster does anybody know of any happening in the US where the people were without water for 2 week? If just my neihborhood was without water for a day there would be a potable water truck parked on the corner. Do they know the BIG ONE along the San Andreas fault is imminent or something? Are they using BF as an excuse to prepare for something else?
If just for PDF, I can see saying have 2–3 days of water and 2 weeks of food - who wants to be going to the grocery store with PBF raging. From a protocol perspective it would also break containment but advising to have 2 weeks of water? It doesn’t add up.
By its very nature, telling people to store 2 weeks of water nationwide implies that there is no electricity. What could cause that? A 30% infection and 2% death rate wouldn’t. Maybe terrorists simultaneously taking out a few key links in the electrical grid? In any event, forget 2 weeks. If widespread areas are without water and electricity for 3–4 days there are going to be some serious ramifications that the Govt will not be able to cope with.
My BF scenarios are posted in my BF Report at http://www.arielco.us/page3.html and include the current H5N1 death rate. As I report on another tab on the same site, I believe Tamiflu is nothing more than CYA - “Sorry the Tamiflu didn’t work and you died but at least we tried.”
The very fact that the Feds and every state (that I know of anyway) are using the 2% death rate of the Spanish Flu and projecting it as thier “worst case” scenario for PBF when BF is currently killing at a much greater rate, is proof positive of the denial.
And there is something fishy about the water recommendation.
Jumping Jack Flash at 00:47 That was why I stopped at 6 months as well. If this is mid case (which is what is suspect) then the lights and water may go off for short periods 2=3 weeks and food will be a bear to get; HOWEVER, it will not all fall apart. If it is worse case, then what I have will get me to the other side and as another member has said, improvise, adapt, overcome.
Okieman at 00:07
Thanks for the brave advice. I’m with you, and I think time for contemplating these important matters is shorter than it appears to many. There seems to be three options regarding H5N1:
1.) It somehow does a 180 and fizzles into strains far less virulent. (sure isn’t heading in that direction as we speak, though. Notice how many strains there are now, and none seem to have become LESS virulent - very disturbing. And as long it is so endemic in so many places now, I really don’t see how it’s apparent desire to also infect humans will cease, either.)
2.) It fizzles into strains SOMEWHAT less virulent, leading to the more conservative 1–2 % CFR’s. Still, this is a hideous prospect.
3.) It doesn’t change much at all from from where it is right now regarding CFR, and becomes the terror that you just can’t wrap your brain around.
Well, if there was a 33–1/3% chance for either one of these outcomes, then I’d say we have a 66–2/3% chance of some really bad s@*# hitting the fan. The big question, as always, is when?
pfwag at 00:53
It is odd, isn’t it? I’ll be happy when August 22nd rolls around and some middle east country that begins with an “I” doesn’t explode some EMP over us for their response to the nuclear issue that we have been told we have to wait until the 22nd to find out. ;( O.K., maybe I’m being a little sarcastic, but I do think the government has levels of concerns that they haven’t quite specified, but would like us to be prepared for. (Does that make sense?) :) Anyway, do you know how many ad spots on the radio I hear for Getready.Gov. (or something similar) to tell us to be prepared for any eventuality, and to make sure your children understand and know where to go in an emergency? Too many to count. And I live in one of the safest cities. (regarding natural disasters, that is…3rd safest, to be exact). Before this past year, I have never in my life heard these public service ads. Go figure…something, or more than one thing, seems to be cooking.
IMHO, debating how much higher than 2% the CFR will be is really not worth debating. Reason being a 2% CFR would be enough to cripple all infrastructure. Without infrastructure at least 90% of the population will simply perish. Think about it - - - - WHAT will people eat and drink with no delivery infrastructure???
Okieman at 00:07
Ultimately, for me, my greatest solution to any of these what-if scenarios comes down to turning to Him. When governments world wide start talking about preparing for weeks or months or whatever for a pandemic, etc, I am taking notice. Prophecy is throughout the Bible, and the coming true of it is worth attention. At some point, perilous days are coming. “Having done all… stand.” That seems to be my rudder.
first one to fall asleep?
Jumping Jack Flash at 01:49
Good point. Even a temporary disruption in infrastructure would be inescapably grim. We can’t live with out water. /:(
And I can’t spell… (without) :)
Jumping Jack Flash.
I agree that CFR may not be quite as important a figure as it would have been in 1918 because there is no way to estimate the collateral damage for the just in time society with no safety net that our generation is responsible for concieving of and developing.
For what its worth, my estimates have been 10% CFR and 10% collateral deaths due to infrastructure lossbut I have little other than intuition to base my conclusions on.
Up until last week, I had not read any books on the 1918 outbreak because 1)Im not sure I wanted to read how bad it actually was and 2) I didnt want to cloud or prejudice my observations and conclusions by being influenced by the book.
Anyway, I found myself in a Chapters bookstore and bought it (John Barry) last week. I have been surprised how hard it is to read but came to a surprising conclusion about CFR tonight while reading.
It seems (I havent seen all the data) that influenza pandemics come in three waves (may or may not be true). If one of those waves is the killer than it can come at the start, middle or the end
In 1918, the killer wave came in the middle and it was a good thing or the CFR and death losses would have been far greaterthe first wave affected approx. thirty percent of the population of the world which meant this group would have significant though probably not complete immunity to the second wave strain. If the killer wave had been the first then the field would be full of immunologic virgins and the death losses would have been far greater.
So even though I agree with your premis about the collateral damage from infrastructure lossCFR really comes down to which wave has the most virulent mutations.
A second unrelated observation I made from reading the book I might as well throw in here tooit appears that the same mutation was occuring in many distinct geographical locations at the same time in 1918therefore it is not about controlling one mutation and preventing a pandemicbecause given the 1918 historical data, if you put the fire out in one location, the same mutation will produce the same pandemic virus in another location
therefore, like every other decision they have made and every statement they have made to the publicthe WHO does not understand the principles of science and science plays no role in their decision makingit appears that their only precept is political and in my mind they are nothing more than a political organization equivalent to a political party with the same prejudice.
Tom DVM at 02:20
“For what its worth, my estimates have been 10% CFR and 10% collateral deaths due to infrastructure lossbut I have little other than intuition to base my conclusions on”
I think anyone on this wikie readily admits that any CRF or mortality figure speculated is nothing but a pure wild ass GUESS based solely on a hunch.
My grim estimate of 90% population loss is not just a hunch. It is based on the fact that advanced civilizations have risen, fallen, and disappeared in the past (Romans, Egyptians, Mayans). Our FRAGILE, electrically powered, JIT society is in a far more precarious position than those civilazations.
Pandemics have happened many times before and I we agree they will happen again. Civilizations have risen and fallen before, and they will rise and fall again. The more time I dawdle on this wikie, the more confident I am that we are going to witness it.
I want to re-iterate my points:
and add a new one:
Note, I’m not saying I know for sure that the CFR will be that high, we don’t know what it will be for sure. I’m just stating what the obvious worse case scenario is. Obvious to me, obvious to you, but apparently not obvious to the WHO and the CDC.
By failing to warn the world what the worst case scenario really is, the WHO is responsible for the consequences if the CFR is higher than 2%. The epidemiologist who said: “It can’t be worse than 1918″ at the WHO is responsible. Nations all over the world have planned based on this assurance. People at the WHO should think very carefully about this.
By failing to warn the world what the worst case scenario really is, the CDC is responsible for the consequences if the CFR is higher than 2%. The epidemiologist who said: “It can’t be worse than 1918″ at the CDC is responsible. The federal government and the states have planned based on this assurance. People at the CDC should think very carefully about this.
Many here are fatalistic about the outcome. I am not. The Federal government has enormous resources. The US is fantastically wealthy. We could easily afford to stockpile enough food for everyone in the country. We could easily afford to buy PPE for essential workers. We could easily provide communications equipment and planning for law enforcement. If this things do not happen, it is because the federal government has chosen not to do them.
For practicing Christians, I remind them of the following (Matthew 25:31):
“But when the Son of Man comes in His glory, and all the angels with Him, then He will sit on His glorious throne. “All the nations will be gathered before Him; and He will separate them from one another, as the shepherd separates the sheep from the goats; and He will put the sheep on His right, and the goats on the left. “Then the King will say to those on His right, Come, you who are blessed of My Father, inherit the kingdom prepared for you from the foundation of the world.For I was hungry, and you gave Me something to eat; I was thirsty, and you gave Me something to drink; I was a stranger, and you invited Me in; naked, and you clothed Me; I was sick, and you visited Me; I was in prison, and you came to Me.’ “Then the righteous will answer Him, Lord, when did we see You hungry, and feed You, or thirsty, and give You something to drink? And when did we see You a stranger, and invite You in, or naked, and clothe You? When did we see You sick, or in prison, and come to You?’ “The King will answer and say to them, Truly I say to you, to the extent that you did it to one of these brothers of Mine, even the least of them, you did it to Me.’
I don’t provide a link as I think people for whom this is relevant probably have a Bible.
Let us not forget the least of our brothers. It is our responsibility to make sure everyone gets fed, everyone has water to drink. And it is not our place to judge who deserves to die and who does not.
Monotreme.
“Let us not forget the least of our brothers. It is our responsibility to make sure everyone gets fed, everyone has water to drink. And it is not our place to judge who deserves to die and who does not.”
It is my responsibility to notify / warn our brothers. It is THERE responsibility to GET OFF THEIR ASS and prep, NOT my responsibility to prep for them!!!
Sheesh!!!
Jumping Jack Flash at 05:14
They don’t know. No-one has told the people in New York City that a pandemic flu with a high CFR is even a remote possibility. It is not in the newspapers, it is not on the TV. [This is different from other areas of the country, like Florida, where it is on the news frequently]. The very few stories that do appear in the NYC media are almost all negative: “Don’t worry, it’s not gonna happen and if it does, it won’t be that bad.”
No-one has told them that they should prep for more than a few days.
The most authoritiative sources, the WHO and the CDC have told everyone that a 2% CFR is the absolute worst case scenario. No-one has told them it could be higher.
Should we condemn everyone who doesn’t come to Flu Wiki to death?
Consider this. Supppose you live in New York City and you, and ten other people, prep. And the other 8 million don’t. And a pandemic with a high CFR occurs. Would you honestly expect to survive?
Monotreme at 05:01
Jumping Jack Flash at 05:14
“Let us not forget…”. Sometimes I agree with one, sometimes with the other. Maybe you will both be proved right, but at different times.
Somehow or other, before, during, after, the pandemic, we will just have to look after the least of our brothers.
If we start discussing CFR worst case scenario along biblical lines, then maybe it is not for us to discuss what we may not know, etc. etc. etc. and this is not the right place for this kind of debate! Monotreme, Jumping Jack Flash, I appreciate your bursts of conviction for your opinions, but please, let’s do what we can, to the best of our abilities and beliefs, that’s already a lot, without risking turning away those that need more time to adjust.
(“There is a time for everything, and a season for every activity under heaven: a time to be born and a time to die, a time to plant and a time to uproot, a time to kill and a time to heal, a time to tear down and a time to build, …….” Ecclesiaste 3–1:22. I’m sure you know it, if not go there Eccl.3). Okies?
FrenchieGirl at 05:44,
I agree, religion should not be discussed at Flu Wiki. My quotation from the bible was in response to Okieman at at 00:07 and some other comments.
As far as giving people time to adjust, How much time do we have? If it’s this fall/winter, we (especially the WHO and the CDC) better start telling people the truth about the worst case scenario or there is no way we will be ready in time.
Yes, I should also have mentioned Okieman at 00:07. Okieman, please consider yourself included in my post :-).
Monotreme, Maybe we don’t have much time, the thing is fate is fate, and there is little we can do except our best. I am not sure that telling the worst case scenario is the best strategy (denial). We may achieve less by being taken for a bunch of freaks and doomsday witches than if we slowly coast the TBTB along with a “reasonable” scenario. If TPTB were to prepare for something at least, even if based on a best case scenario, it would be better than nothing.
Have to go for my WHO lunch now… I don’t yet know which poultry and wine will be on the menu…
Not being a film student I’ve always wondered if the “War oftheWorlds” by Orson Welles was some type of a response to 1918. In 1918, in the real world a virus decimated humans. In the ‘War of the worlds’ it was a virus that saved us.
FrenchieGirl at 05:44
It was not my intention for anyone to infer that the CFR I stated is based upon any scripture.
For those who are interested: The Pagan Christ by Tom Harpur
I just put this post on the CFR thread but think it applies here also
Thanks.
INFOMASS. I do not believe the three wave theory. Ifm sure of the many pandemics in the past 200 years there have been some with three waves, some with more waves and most with either one or two waves.
It should also be kept in mind that H5N1 can mutate directly or recombine etc. with other viruses and both could happen at the same time during a pandemiccautomatically in a sense lowering CFR.
H5N1 has given us nine years of data to work with in respect to whether it turns left or right as far as virulence goes. All of the experts nine years ago figured it had burnt itself out in Hong Kong. All experts felt it would trade virulence for transmissibilityc
cWell if we look at H5N1s task as climbing a mountain, it has made it almost all the way to the top without lowering CFR and rather in fact increasing virulencec
cThe reason Monotreme has been so insistent in the argument about CFR is because it now looks like this virus is goiing pandemic with significntly higher CFR then in 1918.
I have a hunchcnothing morecthat the world is about to get a wake-up call. Unfortunately, the break that saved us in 1918, the mild first wave, I donft think is going to happen this timecI think it is more or less going to be one reasonably short wave of about twelve monthsc
cOf course, there will be aftershocks similar to 1918 and in addition, I donft want to be pessimistic, but we have a lot of other potential pandemic viruses in the pipe-line at the same time and therefore I expect two or three pandemics in the next two decades which does have historical precedents in the literature.
Thanks for the question and once again, I hope I am completely wrong. I am very good at and would be more than willing to eat some crow in the near future.
Tom-I would love to cook that crow for you-but I have a gut feeling that you are right, and we’ll all be eating our rice and beans instead.
I hope it wouldn’t be too much off thread/ inappropriate or whatever to ask you about “The Pagan Christ you mentioned earlier. I want to comply with Forum rules, but that sounds too intriging for me to resist.
Green Mom. There have been a few books in my life that have been a mind-bender (I am too young to be a hippy) as there have been a few comments on flu wiki that have been the same over the last six months.
The Pagan Christ, forget the Pagan in the name…means nothing, was written by a life-long, very well educated (Rhodes Scholar etc) former religion professor and newspaper religion editor named Tom Harpur.
For those with an open and curious mind who want to consider all angles to an issue…this book will be a wonderful read…but prepared to be a little shocked and the first one hundred pages is difficult to get through.
My personal faith is that God is a woman…Mother Nature. I have a fairly large church congregation and attend regularly.
I always knew intuitively that the women had all the power!! /:0)
Tom DVM at 08:39
I did a quick search of the critiques and reviews of the book you mention by Tom Harpur. Think I will pass.
Okieman.
I thought I would mention it but I agree with you that for many, it might not be the best idea to read it. I just thought given the circumstances, it should be mentioned.
I have great respect for everyone on this site.
Grace RN at 07:22 “Not being a film student Ive always wondered if the War oftheWorlds by Orson Welles was some type of a response to 1918. In 1918, in the real world a virus decimated humans. In the War of the worlds it was a virus that saved us.”
Grace RN. You’d be surprised to know that the Orson Welles adaptation of “War of the Worlds” was a radio broadcast in the 1930′s. You’d probably be even more surprised to learn that the story “War of the Worlds” was written by H.G. Wells and first published in 1898! The sceanarios and story line being quite fantastical for pre-flying machines and pre-pandemic viruses.
ColoradoTom at 09:12
Corrections: should have written scenarios… Clarification: pre-pandemic viruses was in reference to the 1918 H1N1.
Ok, back on topic.
Monotreme at 05:01 “Many here are fatalistic about the outcome. I am not. The Federal government has enormous resources. The US is fantastically wealthy. We could easily afford to stockpile enough food for everyone in the country. We could easily afford to buy PPE for essential workers. We could easily provide communications equipment and planning for law enforcement. If this things do not happen, it is because the federal government has chosen not to do them.”
I do not understand why you keep stating that the US does not have food stockpiled. We have a huge, and I mean huge amount of food in bins and silos across the midwest. Now the resultant product from them will not be the most palatable food. Ground corn, wheat flour, ground soybeans, rice (in southern US), milo (which is an animal feed here in the US but can be consumed by humans if prepared correctly)…etc will not be the greatest tasting stuff unless you know how to cook, but it will hold body and soul together. The point is, the food is stockpiled. It will simply be a matter of trucking it to where it is needed. I suspect the military will be very active in this role.
Why should the government stockpile food in warehouses and it sit there for no telling how long, when it can simply seize all available processed and unprocessed foods and distribute them where needed when its needed. To me, this food issue is a non-issue as long as the farmers in this country are capable of doing their job. It is then just a logistical matter, and out military is the best in the world when it comes to that. Yes, we will have some military sick/dying like the rest of the population, but if proper care is take then there will be plenty of manpower for movement of priority goods such as food, ppe…etc.
It is not the food issue that is important, it is the disease infectivity and CFR. Ultimately, civilization will sustain too many casualties to continue functioning as it has been up till now, hence my posts earlier on this thread concerning civilization folding and something different emerging. It will not be the food issue. Water, maybe, depending upon the grid. If the grid folds, Humpty Dumpty falls of the wall and the pieces will not be put back together for years, and it definitely will not resemble the original Humpty Dumpty.
To summarize, we have a huge amount of food on hand. It is already stockpiled, and we will have the manpower to move it. If the disease is one of high infectivity and high CFR then in a matter of a few months there will be a lot less mouths to feed, unfortunately. The food supply is not the issue. Electricity and water is the issue. Water is very much a localized thing. It must be addressed locally. But the electricity that makes the water available to us is the deciding factor as to whether our society holds together. This is the area with which I am most concerned and am the most pessimistic. It fails, the water fails, the food fails, Humpty crashes to the ground. This is why I have prepared for 19th century living.
If you are going to pick an issue to crusade, pick redundancy and stability of the electric grid. After the direct health effects of a pandemic, that is where the real and present danger lies.
Okieman: Ditto. Only one caveat. IF the grid folds and water availability is reduced to swimming pools, lakes, ponds, mudholes, and rivers and streams, then it won’t be months but weeks to a markedly reduced population. The Southwest United States will crater in two weeks. Elsewhere, waterborne diseases will complete what thirst elsewhere has already done.
That is why I emphasize time and again that we need to quickly gage what the CFR is from news reports. If it looks to be a “viral asteroid”, just pull the covers over your head and lie low, very low, so low that it looks like you have gone on vacation and will never be back. In two to six weeks, depending on your location, things will have sorted themselves out. You can then emerge with the canny and likeminded survivors and try to put something together that makes sense for your area.
The nearterm key to survival will be avoiding the desperation of your fellow man. And the megacities are not where you want to be as many on this site have noted.
I think even without a pandemic the electic grid is an incredably serious problem. I think its very unstable and I know people are dependant on it-most folks don’t know how to do ANYTHING without power.
Thanks Tom DVM for info on the book, and to Nimbus for the link.
Okieman@8/21@00:07: The Grrrreat Chastisement! Heck yes, let’s turn this forum into a big ole discussion about how bird flu is god’s revenge on the human race for the sins of feminism, homosexuality, California and New York City, short skirts and rock and roll. That’s the ticket! Repent, or the bird flu will getcha! I guess we’re all miserable sinners who deserve what we get, or is that just the view from Oklahoma and Texas?
And please explain what exactly the topic “The Worst Case Scenario Denial as an Adjustment Reaction” means? Because it looks like you’re implying that anyone who disagrees with you— that the absolute WORST case scenario is going to befall us all— is simply in pathological denial. That seems a tad presumptuous. Can people who have different opinions contribute to this site, or do we just toss the phrase “adjustment reaction” around whenever we don’t like what someone writes?
I see less and less tolerance for diversity on this site. You’re either a fundamentalist dooms-dayer or you have “an adjustment reaction.”
smith. Okieman is extremely knowledgable and helpful in terms of bird flu and the perspective from the country…
…Last night he felt compelled to comment from his religous perspective. I am not on this flu wiki to have professional conversations with other colleagues because, frankly, they are downright boring and narrow visioned…if you know what I mean.
I am not on flu wiki to be bored and we have had many interesting discussion all of which relate to H5N1…religous faith plays a role in our response as well…
…I was intrigued and had to think about Okieman’s comments and I personally would welcome comments from all other world religions as well to understand other perspectives…Okieman wasn’t pushy and didn’t insult anyone so it was not a problem in my mind.
I have a different approach to spirituality but thats what makes us interesting…as I said before if everyone was the same, I wouldn’t waste my time here…
…I haven’t seen your posts before and you are obviously highly articulate and intelligent and we could always use more…so thanks for jumping in…I appreciate your opinion too and I hope you stay because…
…you are wrong about your last statement. Thanks again.
smith: Okieman did get off-topic, but in a VERY “non-judgemental” way. His template for interpreting these ominous events are different from yours. So go back to lurking and think a while before you come out flaming one of the very productive and thoughtful members of this site.
You should have noted that when most people do get off-topic on this site they do so very gingerly and from the fact that they have earned their spurs by having gained the confidence of most of the regulars here. You could have made comments about what Okieman said without the acid tongue.
And by the way, we all “bite our tongues” from time to time on this site when somebody of a totally diffferent mindset crosses the boundary that the rules of this forum set.
Give your counterview in a calm and reasoned manner. That is communication, if that is your purpose.
‘treme-
with the utmost respect, I suggest that even if we trumpeted the news from every rooftop that there is no chance of preparing the general population for a pandemic starting this fall and winter, regardless of the infection rate or CFR. If this thing goes pandemic with even a 10% CFR this winter, we are in BIG trouble.
What would be great is if we could all move to an isolated back-of beyond place, elect TomDVM the Mayor and pass various strict isolation ordinances! <grin> Ah, it was a nice fantasy for the moment it lasted……
welcomes “smith” to the discussion. as you read more and follow more you’ll see that most points of view are tolerated and discussed. you are to be forgiven for jumping the gun a bit. also normally we avoid politics, religion and points of view that degenerate into name calling, blaming and or intense gun power.
you might note that the individual who started this thread has for some time been considered far more of a conservative person with an excellent scientific grasp of the issues. his decision to stand firmly behind reality can only be taken by those that follow his postings, as ominous indeed.
many of us can no longer accept the lie that is represented by the CFR rate of H5N1 as being based on the pandemic of 1918 and not upon the dead bodies of those who have become infected.
speculation is rampant as to why the PTB do not tell the world what is really going on… but again, to repeat the 1918 CFR as representative of the current H5N1 CFR is a lie, it’s ridiculous to expect intelligent people to accept this lie and it will no doubt cost thousands of lives by repeating and or accepting it as true.
I would also like to note that this “worst case scenario” is really more of a “most likely scenario” what they are peddling as the “rosy scenario is a fantasy
to me worst case scenario is something related to what happens to a flock of chickens when H5N1 comes calling
“There are four stages of denial,” says Eric Holdeman, director of emergency management for Seattle’s King County, which faces a significant earthquake threat. “One is, it won’t happen. Two is, if it does happen, it won’t happen to me. Three: if it does happen to me, it won’t be that bad. And four: if it happens to me and it’s bad, there’s nothing I can do to stop it anyway.”
This was quoted from CNN.com, at the bottom from the TIME article.
I think that about sums it up.
smith - 12:09 Welcome!
When TSHTF, we will all stand together… or we will not stand. It starts with your immediate family, your immediate community, and then it spreads outward from there. Hmmm.. kind of like a virus.;)
Denial is a tried and true method for dealing with disasters. Just take a peak at the Gulf Coasts, and you’ll know what I mean.
You can only wrap your brain around so many bad figures before you go into sensory overload. We do what we can. Please feel free to go back and read the first parts of this thread.
To me, what stands out is most of the people’s acceptance to the situation and their determination to make a difference for themselves and their families. I guess most people would see doomsdayers here, but I find hope here.
Sufficient unto the day is the trouble therein…
smith at 12:09
“Can people who have different opinions contribute to this site?”
Yes, and I would skip answering the rhetorical part of the question, which clearly established your meta-judgment. We can use your contribution to this forum, in critical thinking and analysis, and in offering diverse points of views, just as Okieman has done so frequently here. Please show us what you got. Thank you.
my inept search of the wiki did not turn up a contacts page, I’d like to suggest a “Who To Contact” page that would list politicians email address and or perhaps phone for various locations around the world.
in an attempt at becoming proactive on a global, country or state/province/etc level, I would like to be able to send a ranting email to someone (to each their own)
a few letters to the MSM wouldn’t hurt either
In reading this thread, the negative side that is being discussed of the Avian Flu is much more serious than even I had given consideration. Even though I have enough supplies and water to last at least two years, what most are discussing here, is a much worse situation than what occurred in 1918 and more in line with what occurred during the 13–1400′s. I even have given a thought, that this may be what the Bible had said, something about 1/3 of mankind dieing from a pestilence (although I have even trouble giving that a consideration). Too bad none of us has a crystal ball to see when or even if this will happen, and if it does how serious the situation will actually be. Certainly does give one a deep thinking process to look at all the ramifications though.
smith at 12:09 - Welcome.
I am a perfect example of someone who has vastly different opinions to many, and also a way of expressing myself which is not always to the taste of everyone. In addition, I sometimes also have fluctuating opinions. Plus a different culture to the vast majority of posters. I also have a weird sense of humour. My intelligence does not work well all the time, I have been known to ask stupid questions too.
I was made to feel welcome here. I’m sure even Okieman does not bear me a grudge for having belatedly included him in my post. I looked elsewhere, but here is a nice place. This community is very human, and humane. True enough, there have been times where some of us were on edge and perhaps not always the most respectful, courteous or tolerant. However, we also made amends where warranted.
It is true also that FluWiki is not immune to group dynamics, to peer pressure, to majority conformity, and the truth is, most of us here do believe that a pandemic is looming on the horizon, there are few who don’t and therefore the phenomenon of preaching to the convinced does happen. So, because of this, there are some who might feel the FluWiki takes the road of this consensus. Note carefully however, that we do try to encourage people to speak so that we try not to fall in that trap continuously. On the whole, FluWiki has dealt fairly well with some bitter moments, I think.
I welcome people with strong articulate opinions which are capable of stirring me from my usual lethargy and bounce me into the active mode. Be with us so United We Stand against this looming pandemic.
Else, if you are of the view that we are all going to have our noses coated with shhhuuuuggggarrr, then be with us also to show us why we are mistaken in some or all respects of our pandemic flu belief, in all courtesy. It will make for lively discussions and we can learn more and more from these encounters. Any learning can be put to good use at some point. The day we stop learning is the day we die.
Now, that’s mostly all for tonight, I have dinner to prepare… Will come back if I manage to finish all household duties before bedtime!
Gary in Death Valley and others please give me your opinions
I have read the entire tread as it was being posted, and it has caused me to rethink my survival plan for my family.
As long as the water is flowing, and the lights are on, business as normal. I will stand in line for what little food would be available and will do what I can to look and act likes everyone else.
It the water goes off and the lights stay on, I will watch the news and respond as every one else does and go to get water if the local PTB have tankers. I will not need it.
If the lights go off and the water stays on, I will use my alternate power sources to light my house with and watch the news for changes.
Here is where it will get tricky. If the lights go off and then the water. Dependent upon what news I get I will take the house dark with no movement out side and no lights at night. (I have some of the solar path way lights that would not shine through the curtains. I have already tested that) I think I would want to look like we are no longer in the house or are all dead. I would not poke my head out for at least 3 to 4 weeks. (Remember to get a calendar to mark the days) Winter will be a though time as we would have to let the fire out and not restart it until it was some what safe the smoke and smell would give us away. Cooking would be minimal, and at that try to keep smell down to as much as possible.
I would expect the TV stations to go dark about a week after the power goes dark (not enough fuel to keep the backup generators running and I would expect the radio stations to go down about a week later. The only announcements after that would be from the Government if they are still running.
Dark days, very dark days. I so do hope this does not happen. (Note to self NEED to get some heirloom seeds.)
ANON 451. 1) I am a realist(or pessimist) and it won’t be that bad…I promise.
2) Think musical instrument…everyone has had a secret wish to play the ….., you fill in the blank…by the time you learn to play it, the pandemic will be over.
Anon 451 on the contrary.
If there is no power or water, the need for perimeter security would increase 10 fold.
So instead of sequestering in the house and hope that nobody breaks in, we would have light discipline and regular armed patrols at night.
well, dang. I thought the rule was talk about it “only if” it helps you/others deal with and prepare for it. Which is what Okieman did. Whatever the conviction, whoever is right/wrong, time will tell. Bottom line: what do you do to prepare yourself, family, community, nation, and world for the possibility of such an impending threat? I start where I can, and always try to figure out how to extend beyond myself. AND… coping skills are going to be extremely important “for me”, as well as others. My hope and faith are grounded, yet may well be challenged in facing a predicament such as a pandemic. I imagine there will be a very realistic probability that many others will also face dire challenges in the future. Sharing what works or helps is diverse.
Tom DVM at 08:39
I find it interesting you don’t buy into the 3-wave theory. I found that especially convincing in the book. Another book I started reading, Contagion (by Robin Cook), discusses the digging up of 1918 flu victim corpses (in Alaska) (by an oil company) and conspiracy by big pharmaceutical and medical companies to “make a profit killing” in managed healthcare. It is a fictional story, but very interesting… especially since the copyrigth was in 1995. The ultimate storyline (I’m not through reading the book) is at risk populations who have become dependant upon real time delivery and managed healthcare after these corpses are dug up and the pandemic spreads again.
Anon_451 at 15:16 Actually, I have not really gone to the point to consider if the worst case scenario happens in the real world, with a CFR or over 3% (1918 type), to well over 25% that is happening in Southeast Asia now (actually around 60%+). It does boggle the mind to even think that is a real possibility, although I will assume that it is a possibility. I have my preps in line, and in order, but that is what I have done for years, being in the fire service and teaching classes on preparations for emergencies, and if the situation deteriorates into a mad max type, I could survive that also.
My only thought is, will it go that far? Not having a crystal ball, I at least will say that it “could”, given the high death rate that is so far being produced even with hospitalization of the individuals concerned and the lack of overall lack of ever being exposed to this type of virus and thereby having no immunity to it. I even consider the fact, that the percentage thrown out that the population will be sick 40% is too low, as NOONE has immunity to this virus and the close living conditions that most of our cities have will make the situation much worse than it was in 1918.
As far as the pillars of our society “the electrical grid”, “just in time delivery”, “modern society itself”, if the avian flu has a death rate of 10% or more of those that catch the diease (from 40% “governments figure” and up to 90% my figure), the food distribution system will be one of the first things that collapse and with it riots all over the place of those still healthy enough to move a leg. As with you I agree not long after that is that the electrical grid will beginning to fall apart, not all at once, and not everywhere at once, but continues disintegrating across the country and very spotty. I do think the most important aspect of this is how society itself reacts to the lessening of food, the enormous amount of deceased victims, and the increasing amount of dieased people both at their residence and in public emergency rooms etc.
A very bleak time is ahead if indeed Avian Flu goes pandemic, and inflicts on the world at large a higher amount of death rate than 1918 and a higher amount of sickness rate than 1918. In that case, it will be ugly in more ways than we can even visulize.
EnoughAlready. Generally speaking, unless a pandemic virus was reactivated several hundred or years later…there would be latent immune memory that would provide partial protection.
If we use H1N1 as an example, the remenants or small after-shocks of this pathological earthquake are still circulating. Therefore, you and I, although borne long after the emergence and pandemic, still carry immunologic memory to a pandemic we did not experience…therefore, innate immunity.
Now, think of H5N1 as a wolf turned out among a herd of rabbits…the virus is going to run until it kills off all of its hosts or its hosts have recovered from infection and are now protected by immune memory. If it manages to mutate along the way then concievably it could re-infect those who have recovered but it would be very unlikely for it to be very virulent…ie deaths.
There is a conspiracy here but it is natural and biological. That doesn’t mean that parasites won’t try to make money off it and incompetence will make the end result far worse than it need to be if money and intelligence were well spent!!
By the way, its nice to see you back!!
Hi I don’t know if this is the place to put this, but does anyone else remember the Foxfire books? Haven’t thought about them in years, but they probably would have a lot of skills that might be needed again. Mentioning them sure gives my age away! Think they were compiled in the early 70′s.
Trying to come up with a name, I am not new to reading, just to posting. Ahhhh, ok, Weaver. I used to weave. Am going to see if I can find those books on Amazon.
Okieman at 09:36 -
I am in no disagreement with what you are saying about food stockpiles. I am, however, LOL at the notion of plopping a bucket or bag of ground soybeans or milo in front of my 21-yo daughter and telling her “Here’s you some food.” On second thought, it’s not funny at all. She’s not alone. Many (most?) people in this country wouldn’t have a clue what to do with such things.
I grew up on a farm. My father grew soybeans; still does. My mother occasionally cooked them and I think I could do the same (and eat them too). Fields of milo are part of my childhood memories and I think I could make something palatable from it if I had to.
I know almost no one (my age) who had similar life experiences growing up. Most of their meals came from a drive-in/cafe/restaurant or out of a box or freezer bag.
Hi Weaver. Welcome. Jump in anytime.
Weaver -
I have a couple of those foxfire books - I love them! The wisdom of Appalachia!
All -
I can tell you from personal observation that all systems fail when we exceed anything more than about a 2% CFR with an attack rate of 30% (6 in 1,000 dead - six tenths of one percent overall mortality rate). That doesn’t seem so bad, does it? Well…
In a mid-size city of say, 500,000, that’s 3,000 deceased - in a matter of weeks. Right away we can’t even handle the bodies in a dignified way. Let’s ramp that up to 10% CFR, same attack rate. This is 15 THOUSAND dead - directly as a result of the disease, not even accounting for ‘collateral’ damage. We need go no farther to see that is a crushing burden.
The bottom line is that there are numbers, and they are fairly low, at which it is not possible for TPTB to plan or conceive of managing the crisis and we (individuals) revert to strict survival mode.
Tom DVM at 15:53
I understand, and agree with latent/innate immunity. (And hope I have inherited whatever kept my relatives from getting the previous flu’s.) However, about the waves… 2 questions. First, isn’t it possible to have waves of attack at various degrees something like on a bell curve, where intensity is greater at some point? (Where numbers of people infected vary in intensity, nmbers.) Second, are you saying there wouldn’t be periods of “hiding” or mutating or whatever is/might be happening? I guess I can see initial periods of low impact and retreat to regroup/strengthen, followed by a WHAM, and then another lower leveled attack… which would have to do with virulence of the “agent.” My intrique is that you “see” something else and “I” am not following what that is! I clearly saw what Barry saw… 3 waves… well, actually more than that because this thing didn’t really fizzle out as the book stated. But the major impact, I saw 3 waves. what am I missing? (Sorry to be so slow!)
BTW, I have been here. Not as much, and with breaks due to vacation, etc. Mostly lurking, ie- reading, or trying to help with the night time “bump” sessions. Also, I have been rabbit-hole-chasing info on threads to other stuff on other sites. And… been canning and dehydrating a bunch!
Never mind, TomDVM--- you really explained yourself (those waves) in the Let’s Talk CFR thread. Thanks!
Closed and Continued here
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