Continued from here
Monotreme – at 10:06
Reader – at 03:12
You’re right that not everyone who disobeys orders to SIP will all die of H5N1, even in a worst case scenario. I should have said, many will die. My hope is that martial law will be imposed in the worst case scenario and that law enforcement will have back-up from National Guard and the regular military, if needed. I am assuming that they will have PPE to decrease their risk but we all know that may not be true. Neighborhoods could create their own security patrols, if necessary.
I am hoping that we will have effective vaccines for the later waves, but I’m not sure about this. We will need to work as hard as possible in between waves to brace for subsequent waves. Eventually, I expect that H5N1 will become a mild flu virus after it has infected enough people. The reason is that once that happens, selective pressure to evade the immune system usually results in a strain that causes less pathology. Certainly this was true of the 1918 strain. Also, the longer you delay exposure, the better. Australians tried to keep H1N1 out in 1918. Ultimately they failed, but, because they delayed its appearance in their country, their mortality rate was lower than elsewhere because virus had weakened by the time it got in.
I was reading again Osterholm’s congressional testimony (December 7, 2005) on the wiki side and went to the U.S. government’s website to look at the congressional testimony list. Osterholm’s is not listed, though other’s on the same day are. Incompetence or deliberate?
Or both?????
Having been around public fire information and emergency information during my fire service career, I would say it was a deliberate choice to leave off Osterholm’s testimony. When it comes to government reporting, one thing they do not want is a too much of a negative information going out to the masses and will coat it over as much as possible. One example is the news conference that President Bush gave, with FEMA Brown, during Katrina, stating that the federal goverment was doing a great job (when those within FEMA including Brown, was stating ! is hitting the fan on response.
By not using Osterholm more in the public view (must give Oprah Winfrey Kudo’s for having him twice on her program), he is left to do as much as he can in spreading the word any way he can. What many would consider the END as we know it (does not mean the END of the world, just the END as we know it), that information is not told. I have a friend that is very high up in the federal public health area, and that person states that when the pandemic happens it will be very very bad, and has been told that he/she will be locked down in Washington DC in a secure building. He/she stated just a matter of time,,,,not an if.
Thank you Gary Near Death Valley. It is also instructive to look at the rest of the news section of the government site. Well, I said instructive when maybe I should have said frightening. It supports what you are saying. Take a look at the Pandemic Pre-Event Message Maps. “Individuals should stay informed about pandemic influenza and prepare as they would for any emergency” is repeated over and over again (not to mention the 6th grade level).
On another thread, long ago, I said we should be looking at risk communication and its influence on TPTB. The consultants and their theory are behind a lot of what is coming out of the WHO, CDC, U.S. administration, and MSM. Also, other published authors on the topic. It is tricky to discuss this as some of the consultants are friends of the mods. It would be extremely important that we debate the message and not slay the messengers.
Personally, I have a bad feeling about how TPTB are handling this. I think they are hoping the problem goes away. If it doesn’t, they have decided to write off large chunks of the American poplulace. Expect to hear “Sacrifices had to be made. Too bad about the East Coast. Too bad about Los Angeles. Too bad about Detroit.” etc,
If there is too many convincing warnings before the disaster, that will make them look worse in the post-pandemic period.
As a number of people have suggested, the WHO and CDC are being set up as the fall guys for the blame game. “They didn’t say it would be that bad. They told us 2% would be the worst it could be.”, etc. I can hear it now. Note, this does not let the WHO or the CDC off the hook. Sometimes the sacrificial goat really is stupid.
Nightowl – at 18:50
Our posts crossed. Oops.
Monotreme - TPTB and risk communicators have had quite awhile now to see if the public is getting the message. Ninety-nine percent are not prepared. I can only conclude that you are right.
Let’s not forget that the PTB will be first in line to get Tamiflu or other antivirals and first in line for a vaccine. Their silence on this issue in terms of real statements from people like Osterholm has been loudly quiet.
So true, Science Teacher. Your “loudly quiet” really says it all.
Hospitals, financially, can do next to nothing to prepare for any abnormal death rate. I found that my local hospital has 3 ventilators, that are kept busy already. Private enterprise can not meet the vaccine production demand for a once in a century pandemic. Governments should build vaccine facilities using their military bases and work force. Other than that, pandemic plans are fantasy plans. Most of the preparation needs to be done by individuals for themselves. Of course this is where the greatest failure is happening.
Webster caused a flap by saying we need to try to imagine a 50% CFR. He was not predicting a 50% CFR, just that it could be a possibility. That should not be so controversial to say. That message needs to be communicated more, just to stir up the media and get the attention of the public. Obviously, predicting a .44% rate has not worked well. Not everyone can or would prepare for a high death rate, but we have here, many Fluwiki posters, who have prepared for a lot, from 3 months to 18 months of self-sufficiency. It is possible for many more people to do so, if they had the word from experts and the media. I have found that people generally do not have a clue about this pandemic danger.
The normal world death rate is .883%. That would be one death per 113 people last year, or 56 million total for the world last year. 4 billion died in the last century (no one gets out of here alive). 4.5% of the last century’s deaths were by “man’s hand” which would be 185 million homocide/genocides (off topic but interesting).
2–7 million extra deaths are too much for institutions to prepare for anyway, and yet generates a ho-hum reaction for journalists and readers. If a 50% death rate were mentioned in the range of possibilities by the official organizations, then people would have a “HOLY SH-T!!” reaction, and there would be more questioning, more backlash, but more PR and risk communication, which would make grassroots organization more acceptable.
I keep asking who will be the government officials also known as TPTB who are the first in line for vaccines and antivirals. No official numbers but it’s staggerring when you project from the feds, military, then state and local and regional officials.
Folks, I’m starting to get a really bad feeling. Unless the vaccine Anon 22 mentions is power jumped into circulation in the next couple of weeks there won’t be anything left for the millions of essential workers also known as emergency worker patsy’s, I mean citizens. I can’t help thinking we will be persuaded to man our stations by placebo vaccines and antivirals. Now before you folks want to fight with me, please recheck the name of this thread.
Listen, Tamiflu, was so expensive in the beginning just because the star anise was grown only in a limited area and not available year round. Now we’re suppossed to believe it’s growing like dandelions? No, I can be persuaded, but not without proof.
I’ve seen the dummy drugs in action. They are made right down to the same color, same inscriptions and are even scored. Frankly, we would never know till afterwards assuming we saved a dose for analysis. And I won’t be persuaded when a vaccine miraculously appears either unless I’ve seen a ramp up and actually building of facilities. It’s been established flu vaccines have been faked as well.
So, the alternative is becoming more clear. It takes time to make the vaccines and antivirals for everyone and I see no signs this is a committed decision by TPTB. If this bug does jump out in late 06 or early 07, there won’t be enough of these meds to filter down to even essential workers. We are on our own, entirely. Gather antibiotics, oral hydration and SIP as long as possible.
I have read and re-read Professor Osterhoms testimony before the House Committee On International Relations,,,,(just read it from Nightowl – at 18:16 and for the life of me, the information he provides should be in every newspaper, and on every television EVERY NIGHT till it is drilled into the minds of the mindless public that seems to be around the world. I guess really though, when a person says (even of Professor Osterhoms background etc), that, “…the borders will close, the global economy will shut down, pharmaceutical supplies, including drugs….vaccines will be in extreme short supply, healthcare systems will be overwhelmed and panic will reign”, most people will not pay attention.
I did tape the Oprah Winfrey show and now have on a DVD, and I pass it around to as many females as I can (not too many men watch Oprah), and they are amazed how dire the information is on her program. And most of the people that view it, begin to give some thought (whether they prep or not is another question), to the reality of this. But I do not hold any thought as to federal, state, or local governments doing any meaningful preparations at all,,,,as it is too overwelming. They may make written plans as mandated by OSHA, but in reality most will be totally unprepared in the real world when it happens. The best that I hope for, that individuals pay more attention, from this site, handouts, Oprah TV show, and that is where the battles will be won.
I taught preparations when in the Fire Marshals Office and emergency procedures,,,,,and very few people ever do much of anything. It seems only the ones that have had some situation that they actually already encountered such as fire, earthquake, hurricane, etc, otherwise they join the masses at the local Home Depot arguing over the last sheet of plywood.
Hi everyone. I haven’t commented on this thread but thought I would throw someting into the discussion.
It has been my experience with similar viruses and the cytokine storm in animals that there is a certain percentage of animals (humans) that will not be saved no matter what heroic attempts are made…usually 5% of those affected.
I have no solutions for this group…I have tried in animals to no avail…they die in a short time period (a few days) no matter what I did.
Therefore, I am interested in the next tier of those affected that will die without broad spectrum antibiotics oral electrolye powders etc. They can be saved but they will not be saved with vaccines or antivirals ( I agree completely with Leo 7′s post above and his conclusions are perfectly reasonable in a tough situation…and there is no tougher situation then the one we are discussing)…
So I have a question for my friends at the WHO. If you want to restrict the damage to a 1918 like pandemic then you have to supply medical care workers with all the tools required including mountains of secondary infection pharmaceuticals and mountains of N95 masks etc.
If you don’t give me the required supplies which will far outweigh current production, I am not only going to lose that first 5% but I am going to lose an additional ten percent of preventable deaths…
…so please wake up and give me the supplies I need. The reality however, if things don’t change very soon, is the one Leo 7 is explaining.
I did read a couple of months back, that the surgical mask industry had let Washington DC know, that in an event of a pandemic, that they would be out of supplies fairly fast. That is one thing to think about (which is why I have a supply now).
Another thing, is that I do not expect much will be done for those people that get the flu and head to the nearest medical clinic, emergency room, or hospital. Again lack of supplies very fast, lack of personnel very fast, lack of space very fast and just because of those, the death rate will increase dramatically. The mountains of “tools” needed for a flu pandemic will not be there and it will actually be up to “mother nature” on how this plays out I suspect. Not a great answer but a realistic one,,,,which is why I suggest to everyone I know, to get as much preparations in place to sit this one out if they can for as long as they can.
Gary Near Death Valley. I agree with you but the problem is that doctors will not dispense the antibiotics etc. now so that there will be a deliberate stockpile before the event starts…by restricting or preventing purchases now, they ensure a shortage later…
…this could put us back to 1830 when the second last serious pandemic occured…not 1918 as they did have pharmaceuticals.
Gary,
Do you think you can email me a copy of Oprah DVD? And whatever else you’ve got that’s from American TV? Cos I can’t get any of that and I would like to see them at some point. Please email me at anon_22 AT hotmail DOT co DOT uk if that’s ok. Thanks.
TomDVM - What you just posted at 00:57 has been one of my great frustrations.
Leo7 - I wouldn’t be surprised.
The WHO, CDC, U.S. government (even my own state and local government) - all lack credibility as far as I’m concerned. I submit again that we have been able to see the impact these many months of their less than truthful messages. We are so unprepared.
Leo7,
“Unless the vaccine Anon 22 mentions is power jumped into circulation”
I haven’t had time to research more on the haemagglutinin vaccine but if Fedson’s numbers are right then we (ie those of you who are Americans) need to get started on lobbying. I have a feeling that a small/new company like Protein Sciences would find formidable opposition at Capitol hill against established lobbists working for Novartis, GSK, or Sanoffi Aventis. Getting committed orders from big countries like the US would change the dynamics of panflu vaccine development, and would probably benefit the whole world.
(DISCLAIMER: I have no connection with the company (Protein Sciences) and my only contact with Fedson is strictly as a retired scientist volunteering on panflu mitigation as I am, although of course at quite a different level of expertise! I don’t know if he has any financial interest but since he is ex-Aventis I suspect not. In any case, his views are publicly known, and the science itself should be the most important deciding point IMHO.)
Tom,
The more I think about it, the more I think the role for statins to make a difference is potentially huge. I have seen a list of scientists of formidable stature whose expertise together would help solve this question, hopefully in the not too distant future.
anon_22 – at 01:03 I do not know how to send that as an email but I did send a note to the TV show asking how a copy of the program with Dr. Osterholm can be obtained. www.oprah.com is the site and if you do a search of “osterholm” on her site, much information will come up.
Apologies if the above posts are off topic. I’ve been extremely busy and haven’t had time to follow everything, and just wanted to catch the attention of some of you here. Thanks!
Gary, I didn’t mean send it as an email. But email me so I can give you an address to post to. :-) thanks
anon_22 – at 01:28 yes after I posted it I slapped myself then as I knew what you meant. Anyway let me wait to see what the TV show sends me with information.
annon 22. I know you believe in vaccines and antivirals but I while hoping you are right, believe they are going to be pretty much useless.
Which leaves us with no effective treatments or preventatives.
Therefore, I sincerely hope that statins work and thanks because we would not have known about them without you chasing the story for us.
I know if we get a pandemic that the ones at the top end whether it is .5% or 5% or 10% we are going to lose no matter what we do.
I want the pharmaceuticals stockpiled so that I do not observe young parents at home with mortallity ill children and no healthcare and no medical advice and no antibiotics…
…the only thing that will bump up production of a variety of drugs is a ‘war footing’…
…so how about it Dick Thompson…would it kill you to make a comment on behalf of those young parents with children who are going to be helpless?
Tom,
Both the statins and protein vaccine thing will need a lot of public pressure to cause those with vested interests to change or widen their focus.
I hope more people on this forum will read the references in the paper quoted on the Statins Revisited thread and ask questions wherever they get a chance to give it the publicity that it needs.
I/we need more help than we are getting at the moment. I’m rather swarmed, as I’ve been saying.
anon 22.
We can’t do their jobs for them.
You can lead a horse to water but you can’t make him drink.
Now, if they would like to hire us to do the job for them, I can thing of twenty to thirty good scientists that will leave no stone unturned in having the world fully protected!! /:0)
I agree fully with Tom’s earlier assesment - while some effort should be given to antivirals, etc. there is so much more that can be done RIGHT NOW to better prpepare for this - masks, medicines (including ones for non-H5N1 conditions from which many others will die). That can be done and we know it could make a big difference. Maybe someone will come up with a miracle cure, but for now I’d rather see gov’ts, hospitals and citizens stockpiling more “known” entities. I’ve heard so many people say “oh they’ll have a vaccine for that” when I try to talk about BF it is frightening. I feel like the mom in the movie Moontruck when she slaps the other character who is in love and says “Snap out of it!”
Anon 22 Here is the site that you can click on Oprah Windrey television show, and also you can order the actual transcript of the program that the Dr. Osterholm was on. Hope this is the information that you wanted. It was a powerful program with much surprises for the audience and television world I am sure. But in reality not much is being done in this country except on an individual basis,,,,,just like normal.
Anon sorry forgot to post the address: http://www.oprah.com/tows/pastshows/200601/tows_past_20060124.jhtml
Tom at 00:35
Is there any way to distinguish who is part of the 5%? If not, don’t you need to expend whatever resources you have, in case the patient is part of the next tier?
I hope this makes sense!
a lot of important info on this thread… bump.
social distancing should be no less important than vaccine or antivirals. But it has to be organized and prepared. I can’t see this being done.
What’s the current price to save one expected life in USA in the case of a severe pandemic ? I guess, it’s just a few hundred dollars currently.
Too bad, we have spent $350 billion for the military in the past couple of years on a specific war, so there’s no money left to save lives. This is not meant to be a political statement, just an observation. We give panflu lip service, we give everything else to the war on terror. The real terror will hit us when TSHTF, watching your family and friends die. Our priorities are all screwed up.
terror is somehow more of a subject than disease.
People are (politically) more interested and frightened by
victims of human force than by victims of disease.
Terror is (still) overhyped while panflu is underhyped.
A terroristic nuclear bomb in some US-city is generally considered
almost equally likely as a pandemic.
However, a H-bomb seems much less likely than a 1918-like pandemic.
People are naturally more concerned over ‘threats’ that they feel they have no control over - hence the fear of terrorist type events. Somehow people seem to think they have some form of control over things done by mother nature - perhaps because we have the mechanisms in place to give some warning that these will occur (except for earthquakes of course)? And even when we get the warnings, we still get to make choices about what we do - ranging from nothing to everything. Oh what a fickle form of life we can be …
isn’t it the other way round ? We can’t control disease, that’s fate. Terrorists - we can use surveillance, police control, threaten with retaliation, use psychology. Although, in this case the disease isn’t there yet and we _can_ prepare.
Hi everyone. A lot of interesting and astute comments…I am learning to expect that from my colleagues at flu wiki.
Reader. Yes, what we need is a ‘war footing’ and I think that’s what may reasonably happen in the next say 2–5 months when the eventualities become apparent to governments…they are being ‘spun’ too.
That is the problem when you decide that the ‘masses’ can’t handle the truth and the news needs to be ‘filtered’…a bad habit to get into…when do you turn off the tap?
anonymous. Social distancing is as important as all other things…but if you don’t remove infectivity bottlenecks ie escalator handles and door handles on public toliets…then all the social distancing in the world isn’t going to make a difference…the hand to mouth eyes etc. is probably a more effective means of spread then social contacts.
by the way…please take a moment and pick a name so that I can separate you from the twenty or so anonymooses that we have on flu wiki.
dd.I was reading about the subcutaneous emphysema in John Barry’s book last night and have seen the same many times in treating animals…that was one of my measures of survivability.
You are right, there is no way to tell the 5% we can’t save from the 10% we could save if we have the drugs to treat them.
However, the course of this infection will be very rapid…12–24 hours…so yes, if I am in the 5 %, I will get treatments but it will quickly become apparent that my chances of survival are slim to none. We will have to face the fact that some will have to be comforted and the efforts will have to be placed elsewhere…unforunately.
But if they don’t soon realize the gravity of the situation, we are going to face the pandemic with no drugs at all…
…this will mean the 5% we couldn’t save will die, the 15% we could have saved if we had the drugs will die and the other 10–15% will live with live limiting chronic after-effects simply because the drugs weren’t avaliable.
Some resource should be spent on vaccines and antivirals but the bottom line is ‘some’. I haven’t heard a word about the other needs…and we are quickly running out of time.
Reader – at 03:22
BS, That’s entirely meant to be a political statement.
Let’s cool anything that has the ‘p’ word, please. :-)
“I/we need more help than we are getting at the moment.”
Tom DVM – at 19:15 anon 22.
“We can’t do their jobs for them. You can lead a horse to water but you can’t make him drink.”
I meant us here, Fluwikians. We can do a lot more on specifics than generalities. Remember this site is read. If we make a lot of noise that includes specific alternatives that TPTB are not looking at, it will help those who are trying to get those things through the door.
I must be in a very pessimistic mood,,,as I do not expect much help from government when Avian begins to go pandemic out of Asia and into the world at large. I believe that the United States federal government already knows how dire the situation will be, and they are hopeing for the best but expecting the worst, but in hope that it holds off for a LONG time. I feel in my psyche that I need to top off some of my supplies at this time, and not wait till the dead of winter, as when this “snow storm” begins,,,,it will be the storm of the century and a good percentage of the population will be overcome,,,,just like New Orleans. Those that had a plan, and time to implement it, escaped most of the hell, and those that did not plan (they had been told before of the danger of a Cat 3 or 4 hurricane on the dikes etc and so many died needlessly in attics without no way to get out. Having an axe,,,,,even a hatchet would of made a world of difference, and a few bottles of water, food.
And did you see so many in Florida at this time, scrambling to get supplies, plywood, water, food, before Ernesto comes on land. Seems people no matter what wait till the last moment to do anything. People it is time to gather your wagons together and get ready to defend your turf, your family, and your very existence. Does any feel the same way,,,or is it the Death Valley sun out there baking me far too much???
annon 22. How do WE get them to stockpile antibiotics and oral electrolytes?
Doctors won’t even dispense them so an…in effect stockpile will be created.
The sun is not so hot here today and yes I feel the same as Gary Near Death Valley.
Have never been the paranoid type before -but this time I am. Checking multiple news sites and FluWiki daily.
Keep going over and over prep list. Feel this sense of urgency- got dental appts bumped up to this week- eye doc and new glasses (with extras) next week. Realized I have plenty of guns/ ammunition but need a holster for when I need to go outside and have my hands free. Will get holster this week. If needed this house could close down tomorrow, but am shooting for being as prepared as possible - within next 2 weeks.
Keep thinking of odd items that might need to be replaced - and not being able to go out. Keep running up the credit cards and hanging on to cash.
Tom DVM – at 18:07 “annon 22. How do WE get them to stockpile antibiotics and oral electrolytes?”
I see the whole pandemic prep problem as multi-faceted but connected. Whichever piece you want to start with, any public pressure on any issue raises the awareness for everything else.
For example, parents asking school boards questions about pandemic prep will push school administrators to look things up. Like here. :-) And they won’t stop with just looking up school stuff, cos those won’t make sense unless they understand more about pandemic flu. In order to answer the question of when they should tell kids to stay home and for how long, some of them will get to learn about R0, the 3 waves, CFR, age profile, etc. Some will want to know what happened in 1918. The school nurse will definitely want to know the clinical symptoms and when to send a kid to hospital. THAT will certainly pitch them into awareness about ARDS, CFR and all that mess.
Since they are human (duh!) all these people will start to think about implications for themselves and their families.
When you tell people to stockpile food cos of the possibility of a pandemic, if they don’t ignore you and actually start, they will invariably start to have questions about everything else. What about schooling? What about prescription meds? What about my welfare benefits? What if my kid catches the virus? How much tamiflu do we have? No tamiflu? Well, what DO we have?
A general public demand for pandemic preparedness will push everything else. So my suggestion is to take whatever is the easiest or point of least resistance from where you are, and start from there.
If you don’t have an opening to pressurize TPTB about antibiotics, but you know something about the just-in-time food distribution, then talk about food distribution. Pick something that you have some knowledge about or you have contacts that you can influence, and start there. It will snowball if enough people keep doing that, IMHO.
I have not had luck with my contacts. You would think other humans would see the implications as I did. My jaw dropped when I read about pandemics and H5N1, like nothing I ever read about before did. I wrote emails to friends, relatives, officials, the newspapers, etc. I spoke in person to those I knew in the water dept., power co., the hospital, town officials, pharmacist, school board. I could write a satire of the responses. A friend, who is the head of the Intensive Care Unit, said, they have no money to stock up on masks or anything. She knew of no planning. A school board member of both the grade school and high school didn’t know what the bird flu was. I said I thought the state was telling the school boards to make pandemic plans, but she just looked puzzeled. I said maybe you will yet be hearing about it. There were no plans in the town, water co. or power co. as far as my contacts in the business knew. None of my friends or relatives are interested to talk about the subject with me. I find it so strange to have no one to talk to about it, except my husband, who has no choice. I need more help from the authority figures and through the media;- it’s just not in the local news at all.
From an editorial in the Lancet: “We talk of strategies and protocols, stockpiles and fire blankets. We convey the impression that we can detect an epidemic at its source and rapidly execute a well-planned containment response. Neither assumption is true….Avian influenza is not a challenge. It is a predicament of extraordinary proportions. Doctors must say this loudly and repeatedly. Presently, we are largely silent. As the Lancet wrote after the 1918 influenza pandemic, ‘if only we had acted earlier with a collective health conscience’, many millions of lives could have been saved. Today, we are repeating the same mistake of a century ago.”
NJ, Sad, but true; very true. There is a big gap out there between what we know here and what is known in the general public. I think it more frightening to read some of the different State’s Health Department sites that refer you to a link for emergency preparedness (for all emergencies, they say). Here you will find “stock supplies for 3 days, have a working flashlight”.
I can’t tell you how many teachers that I have spoken to that have only vaguest idea of a pandemic and do not even know the term H5N1. We need to spread Pandemic Awareness wherever we can even if may feel a bit uncomfortable to us.
N.J. Preppie
As the Lancet wrote after the 1918 influenza pandemic, ‘if only we had acted earlier with a collective health conscience’, many millions of lives could have been saved. Today, we are repeating the same mistake of a century ago.”
You post was excellent and Thanks for the quote…I had forgotten about it.
NJ. Preppie – at 19:31 I understand your frustration but I also understand the different governmental agencies not prepping as they should. Oh I think some might be making some bird flu plans as directed by OSHA etc, but out here in Nye County (3rd largest county in the United States, home of the nuclear test site, and wannbe storage for the nations radioactive nuclear material, I have not read much at all about any plans. Last year I gave some information to a local school bus transportation director, that has the whole county to bus to school, and as far as I know naught of anything.
I was in the public sector also when in the fire service, and although the fire service does pretty well on most things, it still has a large problem with an area wide diaster like an earthquake, hurricane Katrina and New Oreleans, or the avian flu. The International Association of Fire Fighters, does have recommendations for fire departments in keeping their members safer etc, but I would say that most governmental agencies (all of them) cannot put their arms around this thing, or do an adequate job of preparation as the cost is too much. What I fault is the lack of at least telling the population of the ramifications when this does explode,,,,,very few tell like it most likely will be and keep the fantasy of the 2% 1918 style Spanish flu going, when in fact the death rate is over 50% and no signs of dropping.
NJ Preppie,
I just wrote a long piece that touches on how come people do not respond. Just my own hypothsis. :-) Its on the social distancing thread
Oremus – at 11:55,
“BS, That’s entirely meant to be a political statement.”
Really now, don’t you think that not admitting a higher CFR rate has a lot to do with not wanting to spend more money on it? It’s not political, it’s ethical. I’m just saying that TPTB are in denial of the worst case because if they admit it could be worse, it would cost a lot more to prepare and they have “better” things to do with our money (snide remark, sorta political, sorta sad, sorta true - sorry anon_22, couldn’t help it, I’ll not do it again, I really do believe in your public pressure idea, it’s basically what Monotreme is saying too).
Monotreme, thank you for your answer to my waves question. I hope you are right.
Do you think that maybe, and this is far fetched, but just maybe, the low CFR is so that they can gradually keep raising it to avoid shock (and panic) to the system? They are really not doing that, but I wonder if it is in someone’s plans. We were shocked after Katrina with the gas prices, so they lowered the prices and then gradually raised them back up. Sorta like that?
Reader,
I think the low CFR is because that is the limit of what they think they can deal with, without going into the more difficult questions like triage. The kind of triage where people have to be not too sick to get a hospital bed, and everyone else gets told to go home to die.
The kind of triage that I talked about here
Or whether HCWs are likely to turn up for work.
anon_22,
If the worst case happens, I am not going to let anyone in my family go to a hospital because if they didn’t have it before they go, they will most certainly have it after they go. I don’t believe there will be any medicine there to help them anyway and I can’t stand the thought of them lying on a cot or floor dying and no one being there to even comfort them. At least at home they will die in comfort with their loved ones with them. And who knows, maybe tender loving care is an anti-viral.
Reader. That was beautifully put and accurate…I completely agree and Thanks…the humanity in your post is obvious.
Now tell me how you are going to avoid others who are sick requiring your assistance?
I am in the older age group, I’m hoping the odds are with me. I won’t avoid my family if they are sick. Of course, I would love to be around long enough to get a Dick Tracy video phone I can wear on my wrist, but I’m not afraid to die, they are too young to die.
Reader,
Yes, I am with you. But we were talking about policy, and speculating on why TPTB use such a low CFR. What you said may give an insight as to the difficulties of being the policymaker, not the private citizen.
Tom DVM aT 0035 8/28
RE:”If you don’t give me the required supplies [antibiotics etc] which will far outweigh current production, I am not only going to lose that first 5% but I am going to lose an additional ten percent of preventable deaths…”
did you include the population who don’t get panflu, but die because there were no supplies to treat their diverticulitis, UTI’s, CF-pneumonias, nosocomial infections, trauma, complications for childbirth, emergent surgery etc etc etc….
A predicted 2% CFR would be more likely to persuade essential workers to remain at their posts than a prediction of 50% CFR.
dd:
Key govt figures are listed before paramedics and policeman on the current level of who gets vaccine. These essential people aren’t stupid and the grapevine will be way ahead of any 2% BS. But you are right-they will be lured-I mean lulled by placebo vaccines and antivirals to man their stations unless the money starts to rain down and as some have stated “get on a flu war footing.” Otherwise—all stations will be playing the don’t worry be happy song.
when the Chinese and others are starting to produce vaccine, do you think they will keep it for their citizens ? When they get enough money for it, they will sell it.
“But you are right-they will be lured-I mean lulled by placebo vaccines and antivirals to man their stations unless the money starts to rain down and as some have stated “get on a flu war footing.”
Leo, ;lacebo’s by result by design or intention…or unintentionally wby delivering pharmaceuticals that you think work but don’t.
Please continue the fight here…it is an honourable one and you are exactly correct in this…won’t matter to my family because WE WON’T BE TAKING EITHER OF THEIR ‘MAGIC PILLS’.
I am also very afraid of a human vaccine out of China which will make things worse rather than making them better or leaving them the same…thanks.
Sorry, It should have read…Leo, placebo’s may result by design and intention…or unintentionally by delivering pharmaceuticals that are supposed to work but don’t.
Closed and continued here.
Tom, ineffective or outright harmful pharmaceuticals are a big concern. Unless I hear from someone I would trust (certainly no one in government, or affiliated with the pharmaceutical companies), I won’t be taking any magic pills either. I guess I’d consider it, only if someone like you (who’s skeptical like me, but scientifically more knowlegable) endorsed them!