Good morning all. Todays news from the antipodes amounts to zilch yet again. Is anyone in the souther hemisphere taking any notice of this thing?
Maybe if there were more news there would be more interest?
I’m tempted to repeat that very stale: No news is….
And life goes on, daily chores, grooming, shopping, checking fluwikie, watching world news: two barnyard cocks strutting around each other in Washington, crowing and clucking.
Heroic moments are far and few between.
Nikolai: did your cd arrive today? If not its sure to be tomorrow
Woodstock:
Will try to check my P O Box tomorrow. I don’t have a car and walking long distances isn’t comfortable. Very keen it be here before I make the trip. Also very keen to see the movie!
After the high tension at recent large cluster in Indonesia, a letdown is natural. Can’t keep tense, expectant endlessly, can we.
Only solution I see, and aiming at by June 10th now, is to complete all of prepping to my set goal of sixteen weeks and be able to simply SIP on five minutes warning.
Sure, if I have a few hours, I will pull in some luxury items, cheeses, fresh bread, more eggs, and so on. But I do NOT require those and will not risk much trying to get them.
Hopefully, please Deity, I can then relax more and just live my life more fully. I simply must buy other things and also pay down credit card debt.
Hopefully this quiet is good news :-) I still hope that my stocks will just become a big camping trip at some point.
No ‘new’ news here, but here’s the link so we can see the Australian media are at least reporting these things (albeit well and truly after the horse has bolted!)
I post occasionally on one or other thread, because that is the topic there and I feel prompted to add my tuppance. I know all of us do the same. So…?
So, should we copy there and paste here if the post is also of general interest to we folk Down-Under? This thought would only be appropriate for the odd thing, not everything!
Does that make any sense? It wouldn’t have to be done by the author, either. I.e. AussieOne could transpose something by Woodstock, for example…? Would want to be relevant to this thread, but.
ANON-YYZ — 03:10 posted on ‘TO CATCH A FALLING KNIFE’ and I responded:
“A vivid and thought provoking post. Thank you. I agree, and feel we must be prepared to ‘lock down’ early even if on a false alarum and then emerge, sheepishly perhaps, in two or three days if the threat has receded.
“The greedy notion of living normally, suddenly doing last minute preps and, perfect timing, just getting into our SIP mode at the last second is a folly that has been killing us throughout recorded history… I did a post paralleling Pompeii just yesterday. Same idea, I believe.”
This is a test of the copy/paste idea. Surprisingly simple. But of perhaps questionable value?
Does it risk diluting the emphasis on sharing local news and tips?
Hillbilly Bill posted some good advice for me yesterday at 08:18 on PRACTICE thread:
“I have brought this up before in previous threads, but I feel it warrants repeating. It is ESSENTIAL to practice what you plan to do. Granted, it is not convenient to go into full SIP mode with no utilities, and that is not necessary to try out your strategies.
“Do you have alternative means of cooking? Try them out to make sure what you have will work. Plan to harvest rainwater? Set up your equipment and give it a try. Are you planning on alternative means of sanitation? Try it out for a weekend.
“Believe me, I have found gaping holes in what I thought were well-planned preparations. How frustrating would it be to realize you need some inexpensive item from the hardware or department store to make your plan work and now you can’t go get it? Planning is the starting point, but we need to make sure we don’t stop there. Practice!”
And on a given weekend we could just try out ONE area that weekend, to not overstress ourselves!
On NEWS MAY 17, Kim posted this at 08:31. I didn’t know whether to laugh or to cry, so I’ll just share it!
And we wonder why we have a hard time getting people to listen about preparing for pandemic flu…
“Despite Hurricane Katrina’s devastation of Louisiana and Mississippi, coastal residents have not taken steps to protect their families if a hurricane were to threaten their homes, according to a poll released Tuesday.
“Sixty percent of those questioned have no disaster plan, 68 percent don’t have a hurricane survival kit and 83 percent have not taken steps to make their homes stronger, the poll said.
“Also, 48 percent of people living within 30 miles of the Atlantic and Gulf coasts said they don’t feel vulnerable to a hurricane, according to the survey by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research Inc.”
Unbelievable, but true. At least I better understand my own experience in trying to carry the word!
oh geez thats scary
With the new Hurricane Season officially commencing on June first? I reckon it is!
Hi from across the ditch. Yep, the local media are not interested in bird flu, particularly if it is in a neighbouring country - has anyone seen any local media cover the fact that the birdflu is in chickens in Bali? And now we have Papua province, then we will no doubt have PNG then …..
Our local newspaper finally covered the Indonesian cluster this morning - what’s a week amongst friends!
General prepping in NZ has been highlighted again with the recent bogus tsunami warning - by bogus, the international media said there was one coming when the Tsunami Warning Centre said there might be a chance of one, then it was cancelled - but the media didn’t pick up on that last bit - oh nooo - much better to have several kiwis rushing around in the dark getting to higher ground!
Then 2 nights ago we had the deep wave effect of a 7.5 earthquake towards Raoul Island shake most of the country.
Can’t get a copy of the “Surviving Bird Flu” book as the last print was sold out through online orders prior to filling bookshop orders.
onwards and upwards - have a great day everyone
There was mention of the (5) Deaths in Indo on the late news of channel 10 last night.
Very heavy analysis on the thread ARE HUMANS… I quote Tom DVM at 15:01
“The short answer to your question is that there have been no asymptomatic H5N1 infections in humans despite a lot of looking and analysis.
“The finding of widespread asymptomatic infections would, in a sense, let regulators and governments off the hook: that the actual mortality rate of H5N1 would be much lower than 50%. Presently, H5N1 has a mortality rate greater than Ebola.
“Epidemiologists used survey questions to conclude there were asymptomatic cases while all known serology (blood samples) have turned up nothing.
“There are two ways that you can look at these results. 1) the virus has not adapted very well to humans or 2) the virus geographically has expanded and has increased rather than decreased it’s mortality rate…and therefore remains the single greatest pathogenic threat to humanity observed in hundreds of years.”
Note the sentences: Presently, H5N1 has a mortality rate greater than Ebola. And finally: the virus geographically has expanded and has increased rather than decreased it’s mortality rate…and therefore remains the single greatest pathogenic threat to humanity observed in hundreds of years.
A central thread, that one. Monotreme, Tom DVD etc are in the top ranks of our technically versed!
Still undecided about this secondary posting of highlights… I guess, as always, we can certainly SKIP = scroll on by.
greater than ebola…oh yay. FYI Amcal pharmacy (at least in Leichhardt) has N95 masks for $4.50 each.
Tonight i am going to see the premier of the Da Vinci Code. With the news coming out today i have decided to go an hour early and grab a few items before the movie starts! Just being away from the news wires and wiki for a few hours is difficult atm with the current issues coming up. I feel so pathetic…but would feel worse if i wasnt vigilant i guess. Its a conundrum
These few days past are the highest level of tension and of anxiety I personally have known on the flu wiki — rivalling only the Turkish sequence, probably.
This MAY not develop to be the efficient and continuing H-2-H we have long feared, but it IS a vivid reminder how rapidly it could develop next month, or whenever…
I promise to watch the unfolding ‘Pandemic Code’ story while you are away! Relax and enjoy.
“Yesterday, three members of the family said they were feeling sick, with symptoms including headache and cough.”
This is the extended family of those who have died recently in Indonesia.
A must watch situation.
Thanks, A-One!
And I take it the time interval precludes common source of infection, but supports fear of H-2-H too?
Will be assessing which things I don’t yet have that could prove crucial SHOULD this thing go to the fans.
Nikolai---Sydney – at 02:36
Yes, I know everyone is focused on HCWs but they dont concern me as much as what happens with neighbors and local citizens who may have casual contact.
HCWs are a reasonable expectation for H2H infection, but I dont believe they are the be all as they have much more acute sense of hygiene practice, disinfectant, masks are used etc.
A-One:
Thanks. I respect your superior technical background and long experience on this topic.
Please share information and insights with us here from time to time as possible. I know and value your posts on another site, where you probably have divined which member name is me, though I do not post….
Here is a bit of news on the animal front The Department of Primary Industries (DPI) says it is unlikely that a suspected botulism outbreak on a dairy farm at Jervois, near Tailem Bend west of Adelaide, was caused by a rare strain of the disease. The most common strains in Australia are C and D. The cows affected by the latest outbreak have been vaccinated against these strains, prompting speculation that they are infected with type B, which has never been found in Australian cows. However, Jack Reddin from the DPI says it is more likely the cows just had a massive dose of the more common toxins. “It’s pretty evident from the literature that the type of symptoms caused by B are somewhat different to what we’re seeing here,” he said. “What these cows are showing are much closer to C and D than they are to B. “I’m reasonably confident that if it is B, it’s going to be a bit of an odd ball one.” http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/woalert_read.php?id=6109&lang=eng
And also from Magyar:
Until recently, Tuvalu’s biggest headache was dis appearing under the sea. Rising seas due to global warming could wipe Tuvalu, one of the world’s smallest and most remote nations, off the map in the next few decades, according to some scientists. The nine tiny islands in the Polynesian coral archipelago are pancake flat, no more than five meters above sea level at their highest point. Then another terrifying menace struck …Rats. Rattus rattus, or black rats, are rampaging through Tuvalu’s atolls and gnawing through the country’s chief export crop — coconuts. Coconuts and copra (dried coconut flesh from which coconut oil is made) are the islanders’ main source of revenue. The rats are particularly fond of young green nuts and very fit. Rattus rattus can leap a meter in the air from a standstill and think nothing of jumping from tree to tree without the aid of lianas. Damage to the green nuts is put at over 60 percent.
Thanks to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, however, Tuvalu’s population of 9,000 can soon begin to relax — about the rats if not about the rising ocean. FAO has stepped in with a US$200,000 ecologically- based pest management project due to downsize the marauding rat packs. As their name indicates their preferred food is coconuts, although — unlike the rats — they normally wait for the fruit to fall from the tree before tucking in. Sometimes, however, they will carry a coconut up a tree and drop it to the ground from up to 13 feet (4 meters) — then climb back down for dinner. The FAO program will use recycled Australian pineapple cans containing suitably tasty baits treated with rodenticide. The cans will be strategically hung from wires to put them out of the reach of the young crabs — though not of the more agile Rattus rattus. Metal bands will be fastened around coconut palm trunks to prevent rats — and crabs — climbing up. Similar projects elsewhere have resulted in production increases of up to 180 percent. Results from the project will be fed to other rat management programs in the region, FAO said.
Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/woalert_read.php?id=6034&lang=eng
Enough…Rattus rattus?
Mr White42:
No end to problems, clearly. It is even possible that our preps could turn out to be vital for some as yet unforeseen challenge!
I will, however, keep my focus on Panflu51 for a while.
Nik loved your comments about two barnyard cocks strutting around each other in Washington, crowing and clucking.! was the best laugh all day now i now this is not a political site but cant help but comment on that one.
From the highly respected journal ‘NATURE’ copied from thread seven on BF in Indonesia, we read
“Indonesia is now promptly reporting suspected and confirmed human cases to the World Health Organization (WHO); however, it is probably not detecting all cases. The mortality rate is also extremely high, with 12 of the 13 cases this year dying. That gives a 92% mortality rate, far higher than the global 56% rate.”
This predates the presently discussed spate of new deaths on Sumatra and Java….
A terrifying beast, this new virus, as some have remarked.
From a link posted on BF CLUSTERS INDONESIA 7, interesting:
“May 18 (Bloomberg) — The lack of any clear cause for bird flu in as many as seven members of an Indonesian family is unnerving authorities who are attempting to rule out the possibility that the virus was transmitted from person to person.
“Without a definitive link between the infected people and any diseased animals, scientists are unable to rule out the possibility that the Indonesians transmitted the virus to each other — a sign that would suggest the virus has undergone genetic changes making it more contagious. Avian flu could spark a pandemic if it spreads easily among people.
“`If the virus has changed, then we need to know, epidemiologist Thomas Grein said in a telephone interview today after visiting Kubu Sembilang, the village where some of the family members lived. `A cluster is always serious. This one by its sheer size and that it has occurred in an area where there have been no confirmed outbreaks is of course of interest.”
This reflects the concern shown throughout this flu wiki.
On May 18 News is link to the latest WHO report on statistics from 2003 to the present date. Interesting is the fact that there are ALREADY more cases this year than in ALL of 2005.
The fatality rate, CFR, is 65% for this year through mid-May. It certainly is not going away just yet!
Anybody out there? I may be just talking to myself! Trying to keep a Down-Under link going…
I’m here Nik. Just woke up :)
Today i will keep an eye on Indonesia, while going through my inventory. I think a big “Spring/Autumn” clean is a good idea. It will keep me busy and the house will be sparkling in case we have to hunker down. I cant bear to think of things getting grimy if we have to seal things up. Must be the latent OCD that the medicine doesnt quite fix!
G’day, Woodstock and all:
Restless night so up late today! Sleep is a wonderful holiday from this oppressive matter. I come to the keyboard with a mix of hope and of dread at what may have broken overnight.
Pandemics cannot be good for our long-term health!
Hi team
I too am very nervous about the Indonesia situation. What we already know is that the first death within the family cluster went un-tested for BF - it wasn’t until others became ill that testing was undertaken. With the prevalence of other diseases etc., how many other BF deaths go untested?
And now we have confirmation of the pigs in the area having H5N1. This has always been seen as a ‘bad step’ in the path to humans. (I actually asked this question yesterday elsewhere on the Wiki - I noted that the woman who died dealt in pork products and the family gathering had also served pork.)
Next we have reports that 57 other people in the area are being tested - some have been ruled negative, others are “undergoing further examination” - sorry, too many alarm bells are ringing.
I am going to spend the weekend checking my inventory at home and moving into ‘final preparation mode’ - it has always been part of my plan.
The worse part is for me personally is I had moved my thinking to “we have another 6 - 12 months before we have to take this too seriously again” - things seemed to be going quiet. This current hiccup is most unnerving.
I’m starting to feel like if/when this starts it will be a slow burn starting to speed up and then an explosion. This is just my guts talking and they have been wrong before (hence my much married status!) Does anyone else feel anything similar?
yes i agree woodstock - annie dont panic yet the pigs are not h5n1 so how much better are we off now ? or is it actually worse if it is not in the pigs? any thoughts out there?
AnnieB:
In my most humble opinion, I suspect that ‘Statistically’ (ha-ha on so few instances) this most likely is indeed a mere hiccup. It will pass and be ‘forgotten’ in the same sense as arrival of the birdflu in Vietnam; in Thailand; in Nigeria; in Europe; the Turkey human cases; Azerbaijan; India birdflu, etc etc.
This thing will surely kill us this way, even if not through lethal respiratory infection!
I feel weaker and more ill daily…
< is that a grin or a grimace, N—? >
On the radio in Australia. So there is some news.
AM - Rate of bird flu deaths in Indonesia causes alarm
[This is the print version of story http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2006/s1642346.htm]
AM - Friday, 19 May , 2006 08:12:00 Reporter: Geoff Thompson TONY EASTLEY: The World Health Organisation says human-to-human transmission of the bird-flu virus cannot be ruled out as the cause of an alarming cluster of human infections in Northern Sumatra.
20 people have now died of the virus in Indonesia this year.
While the Northern Sumatra cluster has not spread widely, bird flu experts are concerned by Indonesia’s inability to contain it.
Geoff Thompson reports from Jakarta.
GEOFF THOMPSON: Five more bird flu deaths have been confirmed in Indonesia this week, meaning that more people are now dying of the virus in Indonesia than in any other country.
That stark truth prompted Indonesia’s President, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, to appeal for international help yesterday, while addressing the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation.
SUSILO BAMBANG YUDHOYNO: The stakes so high that the FAO must never cease reminding the international community to give full financial and technical support in the fight against avian influenza.
GEOFF THOMPSON: Particularly worrying is a cluster of seven mostly fatal human infections in Northern Sumatra.
Sari Setiogi is spokeswoman for the World Health Organisation in Indonesia.
SARI SETIOGI: It is true that what happened in North Sumatra is the largest cluster that we’ve ever had, both in Indonesia and globally. And every time there is a cluster case it will raise the suspicions that human-to-human transmission might have occurred.
However, as of yet, our investigation shows that there’s no evidence of further spread of the virus beyond this family cluster.
GEOFF THOMPSON: A total of 31 people have now died from avian influenza in Indonesia. But what is frustrating health professionals is the fact that not a single source of infection has ever been confirmed for any of those deaths.
Yesterday, Indonesia’s Agriculture Minister Anton Apriyantono reported that 10 pigs had tested positive for bird flu in the same village as the human cluster. Pigs are regarded as mixing vessels in which human and bird flu viruses can swap genes and potentially produce more easily transmissible mutations.
The pig test results need to be confirmed internationally. But an Australian bird flu expert who has worked in Indonesia for eight years, has an even greater concern.
Dr Andrew Jeremijenko says that some of the cluster patients were released back into the community before returning to hospital to die.
ANDREW JEREMIJENKO: This had been a test to see whether Indonesia could control a pandemic virus. Basically they just failed the test.
We now know it was a large cluster, there was possible human-to-human transmission and we have pigs testing positive.
Discharging a patient and then allowing him to come back a few days later when he was very, very sick and died is dangerous.
GEOFF THOMPSON: Bird flu has now also been confirmed in Papua, less than two hundred kilometres from the Australian mainland.
In Jakarta, this is Geoff Thompson for AM.
Woodstock:
Finally made it to the Post Office this afternoon and just as you expected, the CD was there.
I must rest first, but will try to figure out which CD slot it goes in and what programme on XP Windows Professional.
Huge, huge thanks! I am very impressed and indebted.
Woodstock:
Is this thread getting a little long or am I just tired?
You seem the natural one to judge and take us to a new one as you decide. I’m just inquiring.
Nikolai: u should be able to just double click the cd drive in “my computer” and it will start automatically. It was no trouble, and you’re most welcome :)
Papua has lots of cholera outbreaks , now for some weeks BF reported there , once read that we were to watch papua as we would be next. What are your feelings on this ? Also is Australia helping our Papua friends.
Candles: i couldnt tell you. Will try and find out. Now taking us to Australia and New Zealand 14 ( because i’m superstitious, we’ll skip 13 ok? ;)
anonymous — 03:00
Deserves greater emphasis yet! Re-read his above post and especially:
“ANDREW JEREMIJENKO: This had been a test to see whether Indonesia could control a pandemic virus. Basically they just failed the test.
“We now know it was a large cluster, there was possible human-to-human transmission and we have pigs testing positive.
“Discharging a patient and then allowing him to come back a few days later when he was very, very sick and died is dangerous.”
How devastating this, on top of all else. And I (ha-ha) was just speculating this cluster etc was “just another hiccup, soon to be forgotten” was I?
< Crystal ball into rubbish bin. Re-do Course ‘Lurking 101′ >
Woodstock:
Sorry, I was off-line typing above post. Yes to Fourteen
PLEASE EVERYBODY, OVER TO THREAD FOURTEEN PLEASE.
Old thread - Closed to increase Forum speed.