From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Australia and New Zealand 18

06 June 2006

Woodstock – at 19:48

And here we are. Has anyone else had probelms staying focused? I seem to be having another “flat spot”. Any scare tactics are welcome :)

07 June 2006

Nikolai---Sydney – at 00:54

Woodstock:

“Any scare tactics are welcome :)” you say?

As that old saying goes, be careful what you wish for. You might just GET it.

Read the new thread ‘Leavitt Says Pandemic … to 18 Months’.

We, and dr Kockosh et al, bemoan the level of awareness and of action hereabouts. The rich, involved, well-informed US is abysmally unprepared at individual levels in the WSJ poll cited there. After all that has developed in recent months!

IF, IF this thing should turn out to be truly nasty, it is going to be a lonely, lonely world for the survivors, I fear. There won’t be all that many of us. “A chicken in every pot, a chariot in every cave!”

Albert – at 11:02

Hello Nikolai ! This is your honorary cousin from Bangladesh :) Things seem to have quieted down a bit on the BF front I think. I worry more about my blood pressure than H5N1 :)

I got my hand on a couple of cases Foster’s bottles and drink one every evening. Gives me that Aussie feeling !

Good night !

Nikolai---Sydney – at 13:19

Albert: Greeting and good wishes to you and yours!

Yes, it waxes and wanes, doesn’t it. Reminds me of the story of the African village that began hearing about more lions in the distant surrounding areas. Then seeing occasional beasts and evidence of their wild kills not too distant. As time went by, they saw lions closer and heard of a few people who had been attacked and even killed in neighbouring villages…

It is a gradual tightening of the noose, Albert, I fear. I never hear of major retreats by the virus, only of new areas infected and new human cases and more clusters and deaths.

We become accustomed to the present day situation and if ‘the lions’ are not advancing on us today we feel, as you put it, “things seem to have quieted down a bit…”

I went back to September and October of 2005 and read some of the threads of that time, and oh my! was that a shock. How much of the wildest speculation and fear touched on then has far more than come to pass today!

We humans can’t cope with vast, slow moving things. To us a glacier is an unmoving mass of ice… But moving it is, I fear.

You take care and maintain your alertness and preparations!

Cheers

Woodstock – at 18:55

Its so hard to know whats actually going on. We are told that the WHO couldn’t find their own ***es with 2 hands and a flashlight, then we are told that there may be many more clusters unreported. Then a new wave of “ordinary” flu in Indonesia nice and ready to mix in with H5N1. I just dont know what to think at the moment

Woodstock – at 19:07

I have 6 kilos of coffee beans and 3 kilos of instant coffee. I would like a vote: do i need more?

NS1 – at 20:28

Did you get any Kopi Luwak?

RobTat 21:10

Woodstock, no you don’t NEED any more coffee, there will be plenty of time to chill out when you are quarantined at home. If your preps are complete (are they?…really?) then maybe focus on comfort food/entertainment. Can’t have enough chocolate.

BTW, were you at the gig last night at Sydney Uni? I didn’t catch up with any of the other fluwikians, unfortunately, had to leave straight after. For those that went, what did you think of the comments by Dr. Bill Rawlinson? I thought the comment by the epidemiologist was a bit lame to my question about why the estimates of the mortality rate in Australia are so low. It is VERY dependant on having enough Tamiflu, so let’s hope there isn’t a Tamiflu resistant strain that breaks out.

I HATE relying on hope….

Woodstock – at 21:44

RobT: Sadly i was unwell and didnt make it last night. And as for my preps…no not ready at all! I keep falling off the perch and then using stuff. Best i get back on the prepping wagon quick smart i think!

RobTat 22:07

Woodstock: Yes I know what you mean. I used the last can of coconut cream from our prep stock in a curry on the weekend, must replace them!

Re prepping. Would anyone (Sydney based) be interested in getting together to discuss prepping and the related issues surrounding possible pandemic scenarios? It seems to me we probably all have very valuable information that we have researched, and can share ideas in more detail than online. Any takers for a session some weekend?

Woodstock – at 22:39

hell yes! Count me in.

RobTat 23:52

OK good. Please if anyone else would like to join in, could you signal your interest in this thread, and then we can work out where and when to meet that would suit the majority. By all means suggest a place that would be good to meet. I’m in Lane Cove and would be happy to host it here, or we can find somewhere more central. The purpose could be to exchange information on what we’ve learned to do re preps. For instance I’ve spent quite some time finding out about using UV for decontamination and treating water if it comes to that. Others may have knowledge in other areas that some of us havn’t got to yet. It may not only shortcut the process of prepping for us, but form the basis of a prep document we could then circulate more widely. Who’s in?

08 June 2006

Nikolai---Sydney – at 02:16

For those who can travel, wonderful idea! By all means! And so good for morale and motivation!

I am not very able-bodied and have no private transport, so a physical meeting is very difficult for me from here in the far west of Sydney. Perhaps some of the main points touched on and advice could be posted here afterwards?

I do also wonder, though, if we could post on this thread, in point form initially, some few of our own hottest tips on bargains, discoveries and availabilities? Strictly locally oriented.

Responses?

Woodstock – at 02:45

another thought is (for those with broadband at least) how about webcams?

RobTat 03:52

OK let’s see how many responses there are, and then we can choose what’s appropriate. If there are very few takers, then we could do something different than if there are say 10 or more.

I’ve had bad luck with webcams. Tried it with skype a few times and keeps dropping out. Depends how many are involved I’d say.

Woodstock – at 05:17

absolutely right RobT. I havent had much luck either but would hate for anyone to be left out who’d like to join …if at all possible

anonymous – at 06:08

RobT - I was the one alerting wikians to the Syd Uni BF night but couldnt make it! can you elaborate: numbers in audience? types of people academic or just citizens? the feeling on the night? questions asked? whatever you have. as you can tell I would have liked to have been there….

anonymous – at 06:09

RobT - I am also in. Perhaps a park? we could bring some of our least liked supplies for a picnic!

Woodstock – at 07:05

Spam spam spam spam!! I hate that sh*t but i have a heap of it ;)

anonymous – at 07:56

Remember the key rule for prepping - only buy what you normally eat! I try to do that No spam in this household

Woodstock – at 08:12

yeah i know..but it was on special andi thought “if i get hungry enough….” also i figure i could put it in chilli with enough tabasco…who’d care?! ;)

RobTat 20:36

Anonymous: The evening with the movie/briefing was good. It was not as extensive a discussion as I would have liked of course, by the time the 2 hour movie was over,there wasn’t alot of time for questions but…

The 2 professionals were Dr Bill Rawlinson, a virologist running the negative pressure lab/clinic that gets all the suspected virus infections coming in from Sydney airport & who was involved with SARS. The other was Dr Mary-Louise McLaws, an epidemiologist who was in China when SARS brokeout. So both very experienced frontline people.

There were about 100 in the audience, not sure of the composition really. The movie was a hoot, an early 1950′s black and white starring Richard Widmark and Jack Palances first movie,about pneumonic plague epidemic in New Orleans with a murder plot, and both speakers commented on mistakes that were evident in the movie. Both speakers spoke about their general experiences re SARS pandemic and then took a few questions. I asked about why the estimates of mortality in Australia were so low and Dr McLaws commented that we had Tamiflu stocks and would get them to infected persons quickly, unlike Indonesia where people were treated too late with antivirals. I asked about whether it was reasonable to expect H5N1 to decrease in virulence as many have speculated, given that it has maintained it’s lethality in chikens for many years now. Dr Rawlinson commented that the concentration of chickens in commercial farms lets H5N1 spread easily and thus presumably maintain it’s genotype. ( I would have further questions on both the above points, but that’s another more detailed discussion…there was no time.) Somebody asked about the animal origins of SARS(answer: Civet cats kept in animal markets, but the origins are debatable). There were some other general questions on panflu that were commented on by Dr rawlinson re $135 Million Tamiflu stocks in Canberra etc. There was not any questions or comments on preparations specifically for social distancing or home quarantine. As I said, it would have been great to have more time on the Q&A session with these knowledgable people. There are so many issues I would have liked to get comment on and discuss a bit deeper. Hopefully there will be opportunities for presentations in the future that go into more depth.

Nikolai---Sydney – at 23:45

RobT: Thank you so much for sharing! I read all your posts with the greatest interest.

09 June 2006

AnnieBat 00:02

Hi fellow preppers

I am restricted in my typing ability at present as I have my left arm in plaster - I don’t want to talk about it! It also means no golf - aaaggghhhh!

As to my supplies - I need to start ‘cycling through’ them to ensure the stocks are ‘fresh’. This means a couple of weeks of putting the supermarket purchases in store and the existing stock in the pantry.

Here is something you might find helpful - I used it to establish a wine cellar a few years ago (which is a real treat now!). Foe each ‘thing’ you purchase to use, buy two more to put away.

Keep up the good work

Love you all

Nikolai---Sydney – at 00:16

AnnieB: Gee, be careful of that stuff for the liquor store! I DO understand you, don’t I?

“Here is something you might find helpful - I used it to establish a wine cellar a few years ago (which is a real treat now!). For each ‘thing’ you purchase to use, buy two more to put away.”

So, I ‘put away’ a six pack last night and threw six cans in the recycle bin this morning. Should I have followed your advice and purchased THREE six-packs and drunk all of them?

Confused, even before following your lead!

< Grin at possibilities tonight! >

Woodstock – at 01:46

AnnieB: i’ve been told that a bottle of wine will fix a broken arm u know!

anonymous – at 02:06

thanks Rob for the update on the Syd Uni night much appreciated.

Question for you Annie B- believe you are a NZer - how is your govt going explaining bf to the public?

anonymous – at 02:17

Article http://www.antara.co.id/en/seenws/?id=14071 about Asian test run Aus NZ etc

anonymous – at 02:22

another resource http://www.pandemicweekly.com/wpm/ someones making good money out of BF the annual subscription fee could be seen as a waste if you don’t make it that long!

Nikolai---Sydney – at 05:06

Yes! Pay insurance, etc, quarterly and increase food stocks correspondingly! Then, in future, rotate the food and house- hold supplies. Great idea!

Woodstock – at 19:12

Good Morning Campers!

RobTat 20:42

Hi all. OK so aside from Woodstock and anonymous, are there any others in Sydney who would want to participate in a prepping workshop? The other topic I am passionate about is getting your local community educated and prepared. Imagine being the only one in your neighbourhood with enough food? Imagine the consequences? So what is the best way to avoid that situation?…yep, that’s right, we need to try and get others to wake up and put away some bags of cheap rice. This can happen at the local council level to try and leverage their communication channels,or on a more household to household basis. And are we going to wait for “the authorities” to get the word out? Do we have a moral responsibility to try and help others? Aside from the ethical issue of being a responsible citizen, you can always take the somewhat selfish viewpoint. It will be ALOT easier to weather the waves of a pandemic with your neighbourbors working co=operatively with you, than banging on your door wanting you to share your supplies.

 So another idea is that we share ideas on how to awaken awareness inour own local communities, and micro communities.

Again, all who are interested are welcome to contribute. I believe this will become vitally important. Students of history can point to examples of what happened in various sieges when starvation caused desperate people to do desperate things (eg Lennigrad, Ampsterdam in WW2 etc). Not pretty.

Woodstock – at 21:49

RobT: do u live in a high density populated area as i do? I confess the problems associated with such, leave me like a rabbit in headlights. I just dont know where or how to even begin addressing the problems. So far approach to the council has met with blank stares. “What flu?”

10 June 2006

Aziraphale – at 01:47

Unfortunately I’m in WA - don’t think there are any other sandgropers on here (speak up if I’m wrong!)

RobTat 03:25

Woodstock: Well Sydney is pretty high density all over. I’ve been researching the food distribution issues with a pandemic, and I think it will be utter chaos during the transition phase, at least. If it is a severe pandemic (highly transmissible + highly virulent)I just don’t see how food distribution is going to takeplace at all. Perhaps the army will be used to get food stocks to shops…I doubt it though. That may happen after the transition phase. I have spoken to Sydney Water about their business continuity planning, and it seems pretty good, but I am no expert. FYI our local council will be proactive. Our council was apparently the first to request information from NSW Dept of Health & we had a presentation from the Dept. All it took was a call from me to the Mayor to discuss the issues. I think there is a vacuum of information for many folks, they don’t get much info beyond the MSM. That doesn’t mean they are not interested however.

11 June 2006

AnnieBat 17:29

Ah Nikolai, you are a breath of fresh air - I always look for your comments, knowing they will give me a laugh! My arm will be 3 months in the healing and the red wine sounds like perfect medication!

The BF news has gone quiet - again!

Anonymous - you asked about how our NZ govt is explaining BF to the public. There is a concerted campaign here - radio, tv, and a brochure mailing to every house. Here is the link to the Ministry of Health site for the info we are all getting. (Link http://tinyurl.com/h797m )

The government set up a special sub-committee just for pandemic preparedness involving all government agencies that will need to respond or take some sort of action.

We have a new campaign just started about preparing for emergencies in general - again, radio and tv. Our yellow pages (phone book for advertising businesses) has 4 pages devoted to civil defence and emergency preparedness. This phonebook is delivered to every household and business annually. The latest release includes pandemics as an event type to prepare for.

12 June 2006

Aziraphale – at 06:58

From a conference in Perth - “Hygiene is better than drugs in bird flu fight”

http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200606/s1661185.htm

AnnieBat 20:28

bumping us as we are sliding too far “down under” :-)

Woodstock – at 22:08

reckon! i’ve been lurking not posting too!!

13 June 2006

RobTat 00:21

Hey Sydneyside Fluwikians, still looking for more who would be interested in a prepping workshop to share ideas on all aspects of preparing. So far it sounds like only Woodstock and anonymous have their hand up. Any others?

There’s a very good thread about having a powerpoint resource built here on Fluwiki to educate others about the pandemic (Title: Thank you Fluwiki). As per my last post I was suggesting we get something together here in Oz to do the same thing, together with a strategy of how to get the info to the public.

If the info pack is happening as a Fluwiki initiative, that’s a very good thing, and overdue.

Woodstock – at 01:22

My daughter just phoned to say that Ashfield Council is putting on a Bird Flu awareness talk!! She’s going and will report back. Its on the 28th i think. Will confirm if anyone else is interested

RobTat 03:17

Woodstock: That’s excellent news! And thanks for the heads up. It’s on Wed June 28th at 6 pm at the Ashfield Town Hall. I’ve never been there but the Ashfield Council’s number is (02)9716 1800. There is a Professor (of what??) speaking and a rep from SW Area Health.

This is the sort of thing that needs to be happening all over the place. I’ll be interested to hear what the current NSW Health Plan is, the one on their website is a year out of date. I spoke to someone on the NSW Gov’t Pandemic Planning task force about when there will be updates to the plan, but no news yet. They do have a section on food distribution, so I’d love to see what the plan is to distribute food to 3 million people in Sydney over a 12 week period!!! The last I heard proposed, there would be central collection centres of “basic goods”. I hope they have considered that the stated social distancing strategy would mitigate AGAINST collecting people in the same place at the same time, to avoid cross infection.

Woodstock – at 03:22

RobT: are you going? I will if i’m mobile that day…

RobTat 04:53

Woodstock: You betcha! I still have lots of questions to some core issues, issues that affect how extensive preparations need to be. And yes, despite all of my seeking information to date (I’m both curious and persistent),I still don’t have enough answers or at least considered opinion. One of my main questions is “How will people eat? Will it be a problem?”

Don’t know who the speakers are yet though. I have spoken to some “experts” who I found to be not very well briefed on some fundamental points, so I hope this is not just another “happy talk” session.

Woodstock – at 05:03

RobT: my local doctor (leichhardt) says there are plans to cordon off each suburb in the same manner that Cronulla was cordoned off when those idiots were rioting. Have you any information like that? I have been unable to verify this

RobTat 07:26

Woodstock: I know that the Chief Medical officer has complete authority under the Quarantine Act to do pretty much whatever he/she deems necessary to prevent the spread of infectious diseases. So yes, that seems likely. However, it won’t work. This is flu we’re talking about. That has about as much chance of working as the ill conceived plan to close the airports.

anonymous – at 07:45

Thanks RobT might go along to the Ashfield night

anonymous – at 07:54

More info on the Ashfield BF night it is at The Green Room a Public Meeting to discuss bird flu Ashfield Council will hold a public meeting on Wednesday, 28 June 2006to discuss the potential implications of abird flu pandemic. Guest speakers will include Dr Leena Gupta from the Sydney South West Area Health Service and Professor Richard Benn from the Royal Prince Alfred Hospital. The meeting will commence at 6pm in the Ashfield Town Hall, 260 Liverpool Road,Ashfield

16 June 2006

Aziraphale – at 08:40

Another piece from Australian news site - Indonesian boy dies of bird flu (note - he is said to have caught it from sick poultry)

http://www.news.com.au/story/0,10117,19494186-23109,00.html

22 June 2006

RobTat 00:39

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/AK0606/S00246.htm

Could any of our NZ Fluwikians attend this talk and report back to us, please?. Sounds interesting.

“How concerned should we be about Avian Influenza in New Zealand?

Find out at the next Science in the City lecture on Wednesday 28 June, 1.10pm −1.50pm at Our City O-Tautahi, cnr Worcester Boulevard and Oxford Terrace. Renowned clinical virologist Dr Lance Jennings will speak about new developments in the knowledge of influenza and how to plan and prepare for a pandemic.

Dr Jennings, who is spokesman for the National Influenza Strategy Group, works as a virologist for the Canterbury District Health Board and is a senior clinical lecturer for the Christchurch School of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Otago.”

Woodstock – at 02:40

dont forget the docos on next week on Foxtel

RobTat 19:54

Woodstock: I missed the notice on those. Do you know when they are on & what channel, please?

Also, there was no response to the idea of a prepping workshop in Sydney besides yourself and anonymous, so what shall we do? Drop the idea or just the three of us proceed? What are your thoughts?

Woodstock – at 20:24

Hmmm. Maybe we should wait a few weeks then raise the idea again. Then if its still just us, go ahead anyway?

Re Foxtel documentaries: Monday 10.30 pm and Tuesday 10.30 pm next week on Discovery channel. :)

RobTat 20:38

That’s great, thanks for the heads up. Havn’t been watching TV much except for the new series of 24 and of course the Socceroos.

OK we’ll leave the prepping seminar idea in limbo, I’ve got a few more things to sort out anyway. Takes some time , this prepping. Those who have prepped properly will appreciate the dilemma caused by those who will leave it to the last minute. There WILL NOT be enough time when it goes H2H, of that I am certain.

Melanie – at 20:46

Take what you can use from the Large File Communications Project and then add your own slide shows when you have them built. We want to be like Sherwin Williams, an American paint company, whose motto is “We cover the world.”

27 June 2006

RobTat 01:52

Reminder: Panflu shows on Australia Foxtel, Discovery Channel 19 tonight (Tuesday) and tomorrow night (Wednesday) 10:30pm.

The show last night was good. It was about surveying the migratory birds in Siberia for H5N1. Also statements by Dr Robert Webster on how serious this virus was. Also the work on decoding the sequences of the H1N1 1918 virus.This show was a laymans history of the H5N1 with related info.

Tonights show looks like it is focused on the pandemic scenarios of H5N1 showing the spread and extent of a pandemic. I’ll be taping these to use as a resource to show some “borderline believers”.

Also did anyone see the piece on NewsNow about the economic impact of a “medium” level pandemic in Australia? It is taken from the ABARE report which can be found here:

http://tinyurl.com/gnq88

I spoke to the journalist who reported the contents of the ABARE report, he was just regurgitating the same old nonsense, and didn’t seem interested in exploring the issue of underestimated mortality any further. So much for journalistic integrity.

If you read the footnotes in the ABARE report you’ll see that the estimates they give are derived from a “medium” severity pandemic that has 0.2% of developed world deaths, and 1.4% of the population of underdeveloped world deaths. And we’re basing our planning for H5N1 on this? Oh boy.

I wonder why with H5N1 currently at 75% case fatality levels, they would focus on a “medium” pandemic?? One answer might be wishful thinking, the other might be media management. I recently spoke to a senior manager of NSW Dept. Education re their pandemic plan and distance education….you don’t want to know! The NSW Govt Task Force on Pandemic Preparation is due to report to Cabinet soon if not already, and it will be facinating to see if the(unedited)report is released to the public.

Woodstock – at 01:58

RobT: “I recently spoke to a senior manager of NSW Dept. Education re their pandemic plan and distance education….you don’t want to know!”

Yes i do!! What did you find out??

RobTat 02:14

Hi Woodstock. It was a long conversation, I’ll give you the short version. He is on the task force that is charged with submitting DETAILED pandemic plans and reporting to the NSW Govt. I have been chasing them for over a month to find out what plans they have for the kiddies when the schools close, like classes over the Internet etc etc.

They have been briefed by senior virologists, and the message was there is high probability of a pandemic, don’t know exactly when. The bottom line? “They are working on it.”

There is also a task force group working on a food distribution plan. Now THAT’S the one I really want to see.

Of course, with “only” 40,000 deaths in Australia expected by the “experts” in the Dept of Health,(remember? Only 0.2% of the Australian population) why are we worrying about all this?

(It’s a rhetorical question!!)

Woodstock – at 02:17

crikey!! Thanks Rob!

RobTat 02:22

Hey, any luck tracking down Nikolai?

Nikolai, say hello. Let us know UR OK.

Woodstock – at 02:28

no..no luck. Might post him a note…

RobTat 02:59

That would be good, thanks. He (she?) is usually fairly active in these Aus/NZ threads.

Oh BTW, there was an interesting comment from the Dept Education guy about our NZ cousins. Seems there was alot of (accurate)communication over there to the public on how bad the panflu could be. Then there were teachers who were so concerned they were going to go home when kids came to school with a fever, cough or sniffles in case the kid had bird flu!!! Big problem for the Education dept over there I gathered. He cited it as an example of irrational and inappropriate fear caused by providing real information without the corresponding plan to reassure people. So there is & will be a media management strategy until such time as they figure out how to tell the sheeple “It’s gunna be bad, but we have a PLAN”

Now let’s see, ah hum, “OK people, we all have to stay indoors for say, oh, about 2 months now unless you want to get sick and die. No, sir, I’m sorry, there are no masks left and the fever clinics are all booked up so it really would be better if you didn’t get sick in the first place. But hey, the good news is we have figured out a way to get food to you and all the other 3 million residents of Sydney (honest!!!), so please don’t rush out to Coles and Woolies because there will be sick people in line right behind you. Just stay home, we’ll be there as soon as we can. Honest we will!!!”

anonymous – at 07:36

RobT thanks for all your insights over past few days re Educat Dept etc Some months ago I raised it at my local school and the Headmaster looked at me very stunned! will be interesting to see how it all pans out. Thanks again

AnnieBat 18:58

Hi guys and gals

I am getting better at the keyboard skills even with my arm still in plaster - the fingers have been ‘released’ so it is easier.

Where oh where can our Nikolai be?

RobT, your comment about the NZ teachers thing - the Education Dept has a comprehensive plan for a pandemic and each school is supposed to lodge their plan with them - that is my understanding anyway. I know of many schools that have done this. I suspect that, as usual, the media want the hype stories and not the “yes we are ready” stories! The ‘big’ issue is around payment of salaries etc etc when schools (and many other agencies) are closed by order.

Have a great day everyone.

RobTat 19:23

Hi AnnieB: Thanks for your info re the NZ plans re education. Do you know if they have set up distance education mechanisms, and what they would be?

Woodstock – at 19:45

Am putting a note in the mail to Nikolai today. Will keep everyone posted

AnnieBat 22:13

RobT

I am not sure what the details fo the plans are but I can find out for you. We have a comprehensive correspondence school system here but it depends on mail systems and teachers to work. There is some distance learning available on-line. As a child, we had the Broadcast to Schools programmes via radio each week .. perhaps we may need to bring that back. I do know a lot of effort has gone into detailing teaching plans such that children (intermediate - high school level) can do self-directed learning.

If you want more detail to assist with information sharing over there, let me know and I will activate my contacts.

Cheers

28 June 2006

RobTat 00:49

Thanks for your kind offer AnnieB. I’ll wait and see what feedback I get from the Department in the near future. I was told that their IT Department was working on it so we’ll see what their strategy is. There are two issues, one is the infrastructure (website/servers etc) to deliver the content, and the second issue is the content itself and how they would convert the existing paper based syllabus to web delivery.

If it is Internet based, let’s just hope the Internet stays up during the pandemic.

bumping for bill – at 02:28

20 August 2006

Closed - Bronco Bill – at 00:38

Closed to maintain Forum speed.

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