From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Australia and New Zealand 21

31 July 2006

AnnieBat 17:39

Here is the link to the previous thread

Aust and NZ 20

AnnieBat 17:42

Phew - that was a relief - I have not tried the pmwiki markup before and didn’t want to embarrass myself by getting it all wrong - happy dance going on here.

Agree with comments made so many times before that the BF will get us down under via the big silver birds that migrate several times daily around the world.

Reading the news threads, the situation in Nepal, where there is no indication that testing is being done, even as a precautionary measure, is of concern. The Thailand situation - getting the balance between openess and accuracy can be such an issue.

happy August everyone.

ozgirl – at 20:53

Ok I have an idea for cooking without electricty, bare with me you guys may think this is silly but we ate fondue last night and as i was staring at the pot it hit me right between the eyes what a great way to cook food, it only requires a match and a little lighter fluid (a lot easier to store than the big bulky gas tanks etc) and you can cook it indoors so noone outside is aware of your yummy food, it would be great for heating baked beans, spaghetti and soup etc the pot got quite hot and was starting to boil the cheese, any thoughts this was just one of my crazy ideas cheers!

Dennis in Colorado – at 21:22

oxgirl: I’ve seen fondue pots for cheese that use Sterno-type fuel, and fondue pots for oil that are electric. Do you have a brand name in mind for an alcohol-fueled pot that might be suitable for cooking beans/rice/pasta?

Dennis in Colorado – at 21:23

<sigh> obvsiously, that was supposed to be addressed to “ozgirl” and not “oxgirl.” I sure hope the next iteration of the software for this wiki has the ability to edit one’s own posts.

AnnieBat 22:04

Hi Ozgirl

I too use fondue pots for cooking when the electricity is not available and we use the ‘tea candle’ varieties. The pots do get really hot and it is not long before the food inside is warmed through. Kids love it as a picnic style dessert - fruit and marshmallows dipped in a warm caramel or chocolate sauce.

Dennis in Colorado. Fondue pots have made a ‘comeback’ in NZ at least - virtually every homestore / kitchen shop has them - they are the in thing for wedding gifts again. There are a variety of models but I haven’t seen an all electric one - not as a fondue anyway - as a bain marie.

01 August 2006

ozgirl – at 03:30

Hi Dennie in Colorado and Annie B I have a fondue pot that uses lighter fluid for your lighter and then you just light it with a match, I have never seen an electric one I would love a tealight candle one as that is the first prep item i brought 200 tea light candles (dont ask because i dont know why!) so that would be even better than a lighter fluid one, but i figured it would be great rather than storing all those gas bottles etc as a little lighter fluid goes a long way and the bottle of it is so small cheers

ozgirl – at 03:31

Hi Dennis I have the same problem I obviously meant Dennis not Dennie what is wrong with me oh thats right the kids are home!!

AnnieBat 16:10

In today’s local paper, our leading virologist is saying that Indonesia is not releasing its flu sequence data and this can have serious consequences for countries like ourselves who are trying to ward off a flu pandemic.

Lance Jennings is a consultant to WHO and the article quotes him about the impact of the data blackout. Also talks about the caveats other countries place on their data - limiting access.

here is the link http://tinyurl.com/jc2vd

What stands out to me is that Lance Jennings doesn’t ‘initiate’ press statements - normally he waits to be asked. I don’t know which way around this one has started but to suddenly have a story like this appear in our local press has me going “why now?”

02 August 2006

MaMaat 00:26

bump

kyangadac – at 11:11

Exercise Eleusis was the federal government exercise held in Dec last year to test preparedness for an outbreak of avian influnza amongst wild birds affecting the chicken industry. The final reportof the exercise evaluation makes for sobering if opaque reading.

Amidst the bizzard of acronyms the follwing gems can be gleaned .

“Although over 200 personnel have been trained in crisis communications there is currently no protocol for their activation and deployment.”

“In agricultural agencies there was a tendency to assume that resources would be ‘found’ for response activities endorsed by CCEAD. This assumption was challenged by the control team during the exercise. However, it was evident that thorough planning for resource demands over the potential magnitude and length of the response was lacking.”

“Inconsistencies between agriculture and health policies and between jurisdictions on OHS[Occ.Health &Safety] and prophylaxis measures served to create uncertainty during Exercise Eleusis ’05.”

“Industry experienced difficulty in fully and effectively contributing to decision processes during Exercise Eleusis ’05. This was, in part, due to a lack of available, experienced industry personnel as identified above. Greater influence should have led to more beneficial industry outcomes, such as a better balance between disease control and industry continuity. It is imperative that industry representatives are released from other commitments so they can be fully engaged for the duration of an EAD[emergency animal disease] response.”

AnnieBat 22:18

I am not sure if NZ has a strictly bird response planned but there are exercises planned for a pandemic response for people. I would suspect a bird outbreak will be managed the same as any other suspected outbreak - like foot and mouth, tuberculosis etc. We have a well practised response to those things.

03 August 2006

Bronco Bill – at 01:05

bump

anonymous – at 06:35

kyang can you put in a link for that govt report it is not currently working thanks!

kyangadac – at 12:54

Exerices Eleusis report here - http://www.affa.gov.au/content/output.cfm?ObjectID=2818913A-DEBA-4683-B514D312C5682DA6

AnnieBat 16:36

I have found this on the NZ MAF website about their response to any suspected avian influenza http://tinyurl.com/gt3xt

06 August 2006

anonymous – at 07:08

THANKS Kyang much appreciated ps does anyone know how nikolai is these days is he ok?

AnnieBat 16:32

Welcome to a new working week - I try to ignore the BF over the weekends - maintaining sanity I guess! This is where the Wiki comes into its own though for getting a quick catch-up on the weekend’s events.

Well done Aussie with the rugby against SA - what can I say though ….. this could be your year to have all the saucers ;0)

07 August 2006

AnnieBat 17:35

Has the rest of down-under disappeared??

I am becoming concerned that there are so many fresh outbreaks in Thailand etc. More chickens died in Bali, more human cases in Indonesia. As Bali is such a popular tourist destination, particularly for Aussies, carrying it back to our countries is a real high risk area.

On the news thread today, I have posted an article from the Bangkok paper, which says that the latest person quarantined with BF was in contact with pigeons. Having pigeons as carriers of the virus has always been a real fear for me - the rats of the sky are everywhere.

ozgirl – at 20:16

Hi AnnieB I am checking in occasionaly here but the format of this site really bugs me i find www.avianflutalk.com easier to navigate you dont have to scroll down the whole jumbled list, I still am cognizant of the facts and am prepping hard for SIP, most people on this site seem to think that SIP is either unrealistic or irresponsible ( ie need to get out and help community) I have two small kids and am in the age category for being most at risk so i am prepping hard to SIP completely, I too am worried about Bali having been a visitor there many times myself I wont be going back cheers and goodluck

08 August 2006

Call of the Wild – at 01:58

On Dr Bob’s website he says the recent Asian cases are negative for BF. A couple of weeks ago things had calmed down with no cases anywhere and I think that is the case right now. Experts are worried about Northern Hemisphere winter flu season so places like Turkey and Russia could be a problem again. I’m starting to think it’s going away but I’ll never be in the position of being unprepared to SIP for 3 months again. I’m in Qld but will be going to Tas next year.

AnnieBat 03:22

I think we have been fortunate down here that we were not detecting BF in birds as we headed into winter and surveillance to date shows that situation remains. I am not sure how the flu season is going in Oz but there have not been reports of any major outbreaks here in NZ. I do know that the number of people getting vaccines this year was higher than usual. The workplace seeme quiet as well, but we still have a few months to go before we are over the season.

RobTat 03:59

Hi Call Of the Wild. I’m curious about your statement that “A couple of weeks ago things had calmed down with no cases anywhere and I think that is the case right now.”

Are you saying that as of right now you believe there are no human H5N1 cases?? This is clearly not the case at all, there are deaths in both Thailand and Indonesia as of last week and this week. What’s more, it looks like the source of these human infections is NOT birds, but some unknown mammalian vector. Which is not good news by any means.

Stay vigilent! We are all looking for good news in this slow motion train wreck, Lord knows we need some meaningful good news, BUT beware of the media grabbing onto any “feel good” information and spinning it to sell the message that there is a reduced danger. There sounds like there is progress being made in vaccine technology and the news about Indonesia releasing the genetic sequences to open scientific scrutiny is very good news. But we are a long way from preventing the train wreck yet, I would have thought.

AnnieBat 16:07

Call of the Wild, to back what RobT has said, watch your media sources closely and see if you get a ‘balance’ of reporting. The newspapers that published that the virus cannot easily ‘mutate’ - did they also publish the latest deaths in Thailand and/or Indonesia? Have they published the storks and swans and cats in Europe etc?

I would love to clutch onto the ‘feel good’ stories too but I have learned to temper these - in fact more than temper these, with the reports we are constantly getting of outbreaks. For every ‘good news’ story, there seems to be 10 bad news stories.

I would so love that this doesn’t happen. I would so love that we don’t have earthquakes and droughts and floods. I am prepped and vigilant on all these fronts now.

AnnieBat 17:56

I have just received notification of the link to our Ministry of Education website with information on pandemic planning. There are guides for schools as well as their own stuff.

I haven’t taken a look at it yet so cannot comment

Link http://tinyurl.com/qkb22

MODS: I do not know how to load this to the Wiki under NZ links etc - can you help?

Thanks

RobTat 21:04

Thanks AnnieB;

These look like good documents, I’ve only scanned them at this point. As you may recall, I’ve been asking the NSW Dept of Education where they are at in their planning for NSW schools. They are certainly way behind you Kiwi’s, so congrats to your Ministry for taking it a bit more seriously.

As an aside, I’m finding there seems to be a common attitude here is Oz (from admittedly a very small sample of people I speak to about the pandemic) that it won’t come here. They seem to believe, which is based more on hope than anything else, that the authorities will be able to shut out the virus and prevent it spreading if it did get here.

So what do us Aussie fluwikians think?

Under what scenario would this be a realistic goal, and under what circumstances would it be an impossibility?

09 August 2006

AnnieBat 00:21

Hi RobT

yes, it seems ironic doesn’t it that, particularly in Sydney where there are 4 million people, they are not ‘concerned’ about a pandemic event. We have that many people spread over our entire country and we are concerned! How many big silver birds make their way into Sydney every day? I think it would take 7–15 days at the most for Sydney to be brought to its knees should 2 or 3 planes come in from overseas with even 1 infected person on each flight. And 4 million people cannot just suddenly ‘go bush’.

You would also think that Oz, like NZ, being so dependent on primary produce, and having so many biosecurity measures in place, would have heightened awareness of anything that could affect our exports and tourism trade.

Do you think some of this non-visibility of planning is brought about by the federal/state set-up? Perhaps that is where NZ has the advantage with centralised ministries that will not run up against local state/district regulations. Nor can we have state leaving it for federal to do and vice-versa.

As a non-Aussie, but a very concerned next-door neighbour, given the high mobility of people, and that the contagious period begins before symptoms show, the chances of stopping it within a major metropolitan area are reasonably limited.

Woodstock – at 01:29

every time i go to sydney airport and see the planes arriving from all over the world…my blood runs cold

AnnieBat 02:35

Woodstock - have you ever experienced Heathrow - that gives me chills too

RobTat 02:56

AnnieB, to answer your question as to why the pandemic discussion is so low key here > no, I don’t think it has anything to do with any jurisdiction issues or anything like that. I’m beginning to think that the information is carefully “managed” here. I think they are way behind in the big planning issues, and don’t want any “squeaky wheels” to highlight the deficiencies. I’m prepared to be proved wrong, and I hope I am. But if we ARE prepared, as a society, let’s hear about it. The stuff I’ve heard from TPTB to date has been fluff. There are some HUGE issues to confront and plan for, so the silence on these is deafening.

And the media are not switched on yet, I was told by an editor that it was not topical enough yet! (sigh) They are followers, not leaders.

As to whether the pandemic will be kept out when it goes H2H, I’ll put my 2 cents in on the question I asked. I believe the ONLY way that will happen is if we are LUCKY enough to get enough advance warning from overseas, and the Chief Medical Officer has the courage to close ALL in and out traffic, with very stringent quarantine procedures in place. Do I think that this is likely? Not from what I see and hear, no.

Woodstock – at 04:22

AnnieB: i remember that old 70′s tv series “Survivors” Was living in NZ at the time…i keep remembering that

AnnieBat 05:49

South Australia is doing something …

Just picked up this news item

“The South Australian Government is spending extra money in preparation for any possible bird flu outbreak.

The risk of bird flu reaching Australia has not changed but the State Government is spending $1.7 million on special masks, gowns and diagnostic equipment in the event that it does.”

There is more at this link http://tinyurl.com/hguwu

(I have just started checking fluwiki and news at home - I am beginning to wonder if its such a good idea - I can see my evenings disappearing!)

RobTat 19:54

AnnieB;

Thanks for that link to the ABC story. Yes there are things happening behind the scenes, they just arn’t communicating much about what is happening, this story is a welcome exception.

Now if they would just tell us how the store shelves will be restocked…I’ll be happy.

10 August 2006

AnnieBat 00:29

RobT

I do not hesitate to email the contact on a government dept website and ask questions about what they are doing. This started in response to questions I have been asked via the wiki. Without exception, the people at the other end have been most helpful.

You might want to start asking questions or suggesting they load info to their website to raise awareness of what they are doing.

Hurricane Alley RN – at 01:00

bump

AnnieBat 01:55

bumpity bump

RobTat 03:32

Thanks AnnieB:

I have tried to get some info from the regular channels, not much success. I’ve received a well rehearsed response to questions that are difficult like “What is the plan to keep the food supply chain operating?” that goes something like this; “According to the best information we have at this time, we are advised that that (issue) will not be a problem.”

OK, whatever you say….

FYI, here is the url to the Dept Health pandemic webpages. If you havn’t seen it the download film on PPE is worth seeing, IMO.

http://tinyurl.com/r9cmn

AnnieBat 04:15

Thanks RobT.

Do you have an equivalent agency to our Civil Defence and Emergency Management? The food supply chain is one of their ‘lifeline infrastructures’ and planning is done with (major) suppliers for any emergency situation - similar lifeline to power supply, emergency services, health services, telecommunications etc etc If you want, I can dig out the relevant policies and legislation that brings this about.

RobTat 21:28

Thank you AnnieB;

Our Pandemic response in Australia as I understand it, is controlled by the Health departments headed by the Chief Medical officer. I have seen an organisation chart in one of the plans, I’ll have another look to see who’s who in the zoo. I don’t know who is controlling Emergency response at the Federal level,but I have a call into the District Emergency Management to discuss just this question re the food supply chain at the local level, which is where it will matter.

Have you seen any statement as to what is planned for food distribution in NZ?

RobTat 21:28

Thank you AnnieB;

Our Pandemic response in Australia as I understand it, is controlled by the Health departments headed by the Chief Medical officer. I have seen an organisation chart in one of the plans, I’ll have another look to see who’s who in the zoo. I don’t know who is controlling Emergency response at the Federal level,but I have a call into the District Emergency Management to discuss just this question re the food supply chain at the local level, which is where it will matter.

Have you seen any statement as to what is planned for food distribution in NZ?

AnnieBat 23:05

RobT

The food chain distribution is not specifically mentioned as a ‘separate entity’ with its own controlling authority etc - does that make sense?

As mentioned, under the Emergency Management Act and its related policies and legislation, food distribution has ‘lifeline’ status and those responsible for managing such events have regular meetings with key suppliers and distributors to ensure ‘all is well in that world’.

Perhaps if you need more specific information I can get info to you direct? I have various bits of info I can pull together and send to you.

11 August 2006

RobTat 04:31

Thanks AnnieB,

Specifically what I am looking for is an analysis of the food supply and distribution factors that would be impacted by the absenteeism caused by a moderate to severe pandemic. How would farmers be impacted? How would transport be impacted? How would local distribution be impacted? How would local store functions be impacted? Are there adequate and sufficient PPE being provided to each of these crucial links in the food supply chain?

Are they expecting people to go to shops, or are they going to drop off food? How can the logistics of that be accomplished? How long can any alternate mechanisms be maintained?

When I ask these questions in Australia, there’s not much information that makes me think these have been planned for. If they havn’t been planned for, then I have to assume that TSWHTF > the s**t WILL hit the fan.

Keep prepping, people.

12 August 2006

AnnieBat 23:18

Bumpity bump to get us through the weekend :-)

13 August 2006

AnnieBat 06:54

I learned recently that a person who was in Bali when the chickens were dying from BF (10–14 days ago)heard nothing locally about it. No surprise I guess - don’t want to alarm tourists. They did comment that they didn’t see chickens anywhere that they went - which I would suggest was not far from the main tourist spots.

I have mentioned before that it does concern me that Bali is a popular holiday spot and so few people consider the BF issue when going there - in fact some don’t even seem to realise it is part of Indonesia!

AnnieBat 15:47

See the main news thread for today about the APEC meeting this week about managing BF in the region. Did anyone know about the exercise that was held in Oz in June?

14 August 2006

AnnieBat 01:59

Bumping

anonymous – at 15:45

I am getting more and more concerned about the asian corridor of infection.

15 August 2006

AnnieBat 04:18

bump

16 August 2006

AnnieBat 19:41

Is everyone in Australia on leave or has this thread lost its value?

17 August 2006

RobTat 03:15

AnnieB;

There aren’t many participants at the best of times, I feel. Maybe it has no value? I would be curious to find out how many fluwikians there are in OZ & NZ. But there really is very little going on here in Oz to comment on. Which is worthy of comment on it’s own, isn’t it?

The big story in Australia is that there is no story in Australia. How are Australian businesses preparing, if at all?

I tried a couple of times to suggest that it would be worthwhile for those preparing to get together and discuss what we’re all doing, and share specific information that each of us might contribute. I think that would be worthwhile, especially for those that may be considering prepping, but need some info, or motivation or whatever. But only a couple put their hand up. Fair enuf. The offer is still open, while we have the time.

AnnieBat 05:12

Hi RobT, yes I think our downunder numbers can be counted on one hand. There was another Kiwi but I haven’t seen any other posts from here for quite a few months. And since Nikolai lost his computer services it has not really been the same.

perhaps one of the reasons I partake of the wiki is so that I don’t feel so isolated in my concerns about BF and prepping. BF isn’t even discussed at parties any more - it was 6 months ago…

I thought at least the APEC meeting would have got more media coverage than it has - that would have helped our ‘cause’ ..

As I write this I shrug my shoulders and think well at least I have taken care of this household, I cannot be responsible for the world.

Do keep in touch

18 August 2006

RobTat 04:34

I know how you feel, I’ve had the same thoughts. Keep your chin up, you can only do so much.

With this pandemic, I think each of us will be accountable to a large degree for what happens to us. It would be MUCH better for everyone if we had a significant proportion of our local community prepared, but if that doesn’t happen, maybe the best strategy for those of us who live in large cities is to have a “bug out” plan in place, if the worst happens. This has ben well discussed on other threads here on the wiki, and we have certainly given it serious consideration and planned what we’d need to do in such circumstances. It’s a tough call though, that’s for sure.

AnnieBat 07:20

Hi RobT. I wanted to post that other info for you today but the wiki forum was down. I will look out some links for you and get them posted over the weekend.

21 August 2006

doldrums – at 07:22

Annie - I think people have been distracted by fuel prices and Anita’s husband being kidnapped in Palestine. And I’ve simply been busy with seasonal flu in the household.

22 August 2006

Call of the Wild – at 01:56

I was off getting married and having a honeymoon folks. I used to be very worried and so did all my prepping for 3 months SIP a few months ago, including defence and training. This made me feel heaps better and so when things were a bit quiet it was great timing for our little holiday and relaxation. I see now there are a few isolated cases in Asia but not enough to panic about, if you are prepped. This BF could take quite a while to get transmissible and out of control so I’m not rushing the next stage of moving to rural Tas. There’s a lot of drought about in NSW and Qld, everywhere we went - I think that’s worth prepping for too. I’m selling up as soon as I get a buyer, then rent, finish work and get going.

AnnieBat 02:30

Hi doldrums and Call of the Wild - nice to have some others back with us. I hope the worst of the flu is over for you doldrums. At last a big decrease in fuel prices - unexpected I must say!

I do get concerned about the lack of information people have when they go to Indonesia and Thailand for holidays - popular destinations from this part of the world. More importantly, when they return home are they thinking seriously about any implications should they become ill.

AnnieBat 17:37

As posted on today’s news thread, NZ, Australia and Hong Kong have been praised (in Lancet magazine) for our pandemic planning. So, for those in Oz who feel nothing is ‘obvious’ there must be some good stuff there somewhere or such a mention would not have been made …

anonymous – at 18:12

The reason I’m not posting is because I’m getting my boat ready for the sailing season. If TSHTF, my preps go into the boat and I will cruise uninhabited areas until such time as a vaccine is available.

There is an Australian pandemic plan and it is available on the web. It’s “problem” is I guess the same as all other pandemic plans - it assumes a case fatality rate of something no worse than 1918. I don’t believe they could plan for anything higher without alarming the general population.

Visiting the website suggests that the main, but unstated, objective is to maintain public order and avoid panic. Its all sugary and nice, but if H5N1 behaves as it is doing in Indonesia but with efficient H to H transfer, I don’t think the plan will suffice.

People will panic. Those that can will head for the hills. Society and infrastructure will break down, hence my boat.

RobTat 20:33

Anonymous;

I agree completely. The plans as I read them do NOT address the significant issues that will be faced by each family. But they are good “paper” plans. As you point out, they do not address the real possibility of significantly higher CFR than the Dept of Health has forecasted, which is based on the very lowest CFR of the 1968 pandemic. Read Monotremes threads on CFR. So I think it’s fair to say the plans are, by definition, inadequate to say the least. Probably compared to the non-existant plans of some other countries, they undoubtedly look good, which is why they are “praised”. But I hope that we lot here, with the excellent information that we have available to us, can see through the gloss of paper plans. This is our lives we’re talking about.

I like your bug out plan of cruising. If I had an adequate yacht, it would be my first choice as well. Hope you have a good watermaker with lots of spares.

Call of the Wild – at 21:18

Yachts are a great idea as no one can get really close to you unless you allow them. The downside will be fuel, water and food which need some reprovisioning. Another is that even in fairly quiet anchorages other people see your mast and assume you need company. That’s my experience anyway. As a pandemic coordinator at work, I’ve made great progress in getting PPE and cleaning supplies stockpiled. Our plan is to keep going to work in the face of flu, until staff numbers/input resources prevent production.

23 August 2006

RobTat 20:50

AnnieB;

I just read your excellent post in the other thread where you are relating info from the book “Black November” about pandemic in NZ. Thanks for that summary, and I’ll look for it over here.

Call of the Wild;

If the CFR is much worse than is being generally planned for, that is instead of 2% mortality we actually have anywhere between 10% and 50%, have you discussed this in your planning efforts for business continuity? At what point do you believe your business will be unable to function, and why? Something I have been investigating is the Occ Health & Safety responsibilities for duty of care for employees, and if there is a lethal contagion, what are the reasonable actions for an employer to take to prevent the death of their employees? Can people work for 8 hours with masks & or respirators? Will donning & doffing procedures work with untrained staff? If people get sick and die from going to work, what are the duty of care ramifications for an employer?

As a pandemic co-ordinator, it would be great to hear your thoughts on this.

AnnieBat 21:16

RobT

The book talks about Australia immediately stopping the movement of ships into its ports when news was received that the flu was breaking out elsewhere.

When I finish the book, or find anything more of note, I will post it here

Call of the Wild – at 22:31

We are a power station so there is a feeling that we should move heaven and earth to keep power going to consumers. Social distancing, masks, alcohol wipes and lots of extra cleaning will be the main precautions as well as advice for the family and home. If things get even slightly worse I will be advising staff to prep. All the normal HR leave policies will apply but we will probably allow people to debit future leave if we have the money to hand. We want people to make the choice to come to work by preventing the entry of flu to the workplace, so personal thermometers and symptom checklists will be provided. I’m also considering a system of collecting people from their homes if fuel is limited. An increase in CFR will change all this for everybody, as we know on this wiki.

AnnieBat 22:45

Call of the Wild and RobT

I was recently at a presentation from a major power supplier here and their pandemic preps have been tested. They include ghost shifts, personal covers for keyboards etc as well as what you already mention. A major concern for all our lifeline utilities is ongoing fuel supplies to allow maintenance in the field.

Of note, all lifts, stairwells and doors will have wipes and bags on both sides/ends so that a wipe can be used for opening/closing doors, pushing buttons etc and then immediately disposed of.

24 August 2006

RobTat 00:20

Call of the Wild & AnnieB;

Thank you both.

AnnieBat 02:23

bump

AnnieBat 18:38

More from the book “Black November” (unless you suffer from insomnia, it is a very dry read). I mentioned about Oz immediately stopping ships into ports. It appears that all that did was delay the arrival of the virus - NZ hit most badly in November 1918, Oz hit hard in Jan/Feb 1919.

Also, there was an outbreak of flu in Sept/Oct in NZ which was assumed to be just seasonal flu but that is now thought to be the ‘first wave’. Communities that did not experience that outbreak suffered most in the 2nd wave in Nov - CFR very high. It was the 2nd wave that had the high incidence of pneumonia, nose bleeds, and the black bodies.

There is also some (interesting) discussion regarding mutation versus recombination .. and the way the virus spread - although Auckland was seen as the main entry site, the pattern of spread cannot be easily explained - it did not ‘radiate’ out but instead popped up in several locations almost simultaneously. Train and shipping movements cannot explain it all.

Those living in cramped or crowded conditions combined with poor nutrition had high CFR. Those crowded but with good nutrition had a high attack rate but lower CFR.

As it occurred during the main dairy milking season, rural areas that were in dairy farming had a high incidence. Cows just had to be milked and the milk delivered to the factories. Farmers were working when they were still sick and the CFR went up. The number of able bodies available to assist with milking had to come from within the community and the ‘communal’ nature of going to the factories probably helped the spread.

(If you think that I negated my first statement with this info - it took about 30 pages to get this amount of info ..smiling .. It does include an amazing collection of personal experiences.)

25 August 2006

RobTat 01:33

AnnieB;

Thanks for that. That phenomenon where there are outbreaks happening far apart almost simultaneously was mentioned in Barry’s book as well. It is strange.

I thought you would get a kick out of this. There are 2 news reports today by TVNZ on www.newsnow.co.uk that are issued one after the other. One says there was no h2h in the Karo cluster, acccording to “experts”, the piece immediately following the first one says it was h2h. I thought that was a pretty funny example of how the media just cannot do it’s job and report accurately! No wonder people are confused. Sane topic, same day, same time,same media organisation…and completely opposite reporting. Why don’t you call them up and ask, “What the ….?”

RobTat 01:37

Sorry, the correct link to the section of Newsnow on birdflu to see the abovementioned news reports is

http://www.newsnow.co.uk/newsfeed/?name=Bird+Flu

anonymous – at 07:04

Hi glad to see the Aus site up and running again i feel like it is hard to keep the momentum. I know i am eating thru my supplies - I was better stocked 5 mths ago - shit!

AnnieBat 07:38

RobT at 01:33

yes I was somewhat taken aback at the reports you mention but the dates on the actual reports are late July and early August - why they have just been scanned and picked up by NewsNow I have no idea! Unless TVNZ has only just posted them to their site?

26 August 2006

Bump it up – at 20:15

29 August 2006

AnnieBat 05:01

More commentary from the book “Black November” .. one of the other ‘outcomes’ for those that were so sick was that they lost all their hair - I haven’t heard of that before.

Anon at 07:04 the other day … I have found it too easy to get replacement stock from the storage cupboard when I run out in the main pantry and I have not been good at replacing stolen stocks - I will make a concerted effort this weekend to rectify the situation.

I am also getting seed boxes ready to start the spring vege garden - I have done a bit over the last few years more for the ‘novelty’ value but this spring it will be in earnest - want to form good vege gardening habits if for no other reason.

RobTat 18:34

AnnieB;

I hadn’t heard that either, about the hair loss. Of course, it would be the least of your worries if you got infected.

We’re guilty of using up the prepstock as well, usually the coconut milk for curries and the tomatoe paste. Been through two cycles of restocking it, so I guessas long as we do that we’ll be OK. Spoke to the manager of our local Campbells Cash & Carry about his ability to restock in case of panflu, there was some discussion of it there but no concrete plans as such.

I have been eyeing our lawn area at the back of the house lately. Thinking that a couple of loads of topsoil, and we’d have a sustainable vegetable garden. Hmmmm. I hope it goes better than our pathetic results so far. The corn was a real disappointment. Lots to learn..

DemFromCTat 20:43

i thought I’d pop in and thank AnnieB for the news thread summaries.

30 August 2006

anonymous – at 09:18

Hi everyone thanks for comments about restocking its a challenge isnt it!

Rob you mentioned campbells cash and carry i thought about signing up with them as I am eligible have you found it worthwhile? thanks

anonymous – at 09:24

Article re SA Respiratory illness increase http://www.avianflutalk.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=11910 BF? not likely but interesting chart

RobTat 21:02

AnnieB;

I second DemFromCT thanks re the work you are doing on those threads. Much appreciated.

Anonymous;

Definitely yes on the Campbells. When they put something on special the prices are very good. But comparitive shop for the specials the main retailers have as well. Plus with Campbells there are no crowds & everything is in cartons so storing is easier. It also helps in not using your prep stock cuz you have to physically break open the carton, and that messes up your nice stack of cartons! So you’re more aware of depleting prep stock.

Campbells also have access to way more than they stock and will get it in for you no worries. I was after bulk brown rice and they got it quickly.

Now if I could only persuade them to drop ship to homes during a pandemic, we’d have the food distribution problem solved.(…he sighed wistfully.)

BTW, I spoke to the Pandemic Planning task force manager for NSW Food Authority about the food distribution issue. There is nothing currently in place to handle the surge capacity issue, however it sounds like it IS on planners radar, and multiple organisations are addressing the issue. That is good news. The bad news is that when I asked about a stockpiling strategy I was told (home) stockpiling was rejected because “the lower socio-economic demographic would refuse to comply”.

Doh! Assuming that is true (and faced with the alternative of standing beside someone in line at Coles who just sneezed and gave you a lethal disease, it probably isn’t a valid objection) it still doesn’t mean many, many families would not stockpile enough supplies if they were educated on why it is a good idea and what to get.

Sometimes the thinking of these planners just eludes me.

31 August 2006

Call of the Wild – at 01:18

Some of the things I’ve done, as well as raiding what my wife calls the bird flu cupboard, like some of you others: Stored food and medical supplies for 3 months Cleaned out my full 5,000 gal tank and dosed it Bought and run in a new rifle Stacked away enough cash Got flu and pneumovax jabs Properly stored fuels for transport, light and cooking Obtained some masks Stockpiled cleaning stuff Provisioned for pets Listed medical treatments Got supplies for my mother Bought seeds, solar panel etc and pushbikes Rejigged investments Got married. Now we’re starting to sell off unnecessary stuff. Guess I’ll restock the BF cupboard and buy some books in the light of Indo cases spreading a bit.

AnnieBat 02:25

Thanks DemfromCT and RobT for your thanks - just doing my little bit for the virtual community … seems to be easier than trying to move things along in the terra firma community!

Hey Call of the Wild - congrats on the wedding - happy news is always welcome.

I have one of my cats sitting on my knee trying to help me type this - I think she is really reminding me that they do not intend to diet during any crisis and could I please re-check the inventory on their supply cupboard ;-) Here’s hoping I do not have to make any hard choices about them in the event they may become vectors - not worth thinking about at present.

I still need to get a portable propane cooker for indoor cooking, and a spare gas bottle for the BBQ - outdoor cooking.

Our spring equinox winds are already heralding the commencement of spring tomorrow and within a few weeks we will all be driven gaga (insane) by them so I had better finish the preps while I can still apply some common sense to them.

anonymous – at 06:46

Hi Rob and thanks for the Campbells CashCarry Info I will certainly now investigate further. I like the idea of not ripping into them as well as that has been my biggest problem in prepping. Interesting to hear that

Thanks also rob for letting us know about the food distribution (or lack of) - it doesnt seem to be getting much better at all.

On the preps side I have medicines, tamiflu for the kids and working on getting enough for adults, masks but probably not enough tho, I have my script for the pneumovax - just need a sec to get the shot, scripts for variety of antibiotics - for secondary infections, storage containers for water, thats about it my main problem is now stocking up my food again - its expensive so that holds me back a bit.

I also have a list to grab when the SHTF and one for my partner, medical info in one place re treating it and re water.

Thanks Call of the Wild for your list it made me reconsider what I have and what i dont.

02 September 2006

Closed and Continued - Bronco Bill – at 23:56

Closed and continued here

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