Hi fellow down-unders. I thought I would start us a September thread - the other one was getting longish anyway - and thought the actual month was better than just a number ….
The old thread is here
ATTENTION
I have noted from the Indonesia outbreak thread that there is a suspect case of human BF in Bali - a baby. As this is a popular holiday destination for Aussies and Kiwis alike, if you know of people going there you might want to ‘spread the word’ - they had 2 severe outbreaks in chickens last month.
Thanks Annie and hello again! I’ve been away from the wiki for a while…it was all getting a bit overwhelming. Now my head is out of the sand again!!
Welcome back Woodstock - you have been missed here I can assure you. I hope you have been able to catch up with what’s been going on - particularly in Indonesia. Have you had any communication with Nikolai - I often think of you both and wonder how things are.
A related disaster waiting in the wings to trap Western Man is the coming shortage of oil based products, either as a result of Peak Oil or war. A while ago I predicted that people will be riding bikes and horses again. Other replacement technologies can’t meet the huge demand our society has for petroleum based products. I give us 5 - 10 years more of driving cars, trucks and boats. Of if there was a pandemic with bad results for humanity we’d be lucky to have petrol/diesel from then on. My first solution was to buy mountain bikes and get fit riding them. That worked, except for one fall which was totally my own stupidity and still hurts a bit. I’ve now motorised them with kit engines which gets us up to 50kmh at less than 2 litres/100k. I’m now working on getting even stronger bikes and engines as we’re used to these fun machines now and could do with a little more low speed hauling power. I’ve still got a V8 car and a big bike but this will all change as time goes on and our whole plan rolls out. Just something to think about.
I think we have to be very careful to distinguish between B-H and H-H - there are still alot of B-H cases but H-H has not happened in any sustainable way and seems unlikely to happen.
I agree. In risk industry terms we have a low probability event with possible catastrophic outcome. Therefore we need to be some way along a planning timeline. We also should be having a happy life, fun times and without too much stress. That’s why most people use this site - being prepared reduces worry, even if it’s only for three months survival.
cmo111;
Glad to hear sustainable H2H is unlikely to happen. Very glad indeed. Can I ask what information leads you to that conclusion?
It now appears that there have been several human to human events besides the well known Karo cluster (Maria Chang from WHO said a “half dozen”) but they have not been sustainable or on-going, it is true, thankfully. But what is the science that indicates that sustained H2H transmission is unlikely?
Nothing more on the case in Bali - will keep an eye on the news from that region and point you to other posts if we hear more
I’ve not been able to find out anything further on Bali either. My husband just returned from the US and i can finally face the papers again. Was so afraid something might break while he was away!! Just shows you how jumpy i am i guess. The forecast for Sydney this weekend is very icky so i think it might be a good time to do inventory. Its so easy to just turn away from it all when you’re avoiding the newspapers!!!
Keep the prepping going - winter in Nth Hemisphere should let us know one way or the other if H2H in more countries is likely.
Just a note for AnnieB; Thanks for yuor efforts. Cheers.
This was not widely reported? GRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR. Should we just accept this from our local media(Perth, Western Australia, From my point of view). I’m writing a letter to the editor…thanx for the heads up.
Blue
If you watch for news from our local media, we seem to get news of vaccine programmes and testing of plans but not a lot on outbreaks - an NZ paper just noted that Cambodia has another outbreak in birds - not a whisper about Indonesia, Vietnam or Thailand! I begin to suspect that it only got into the news because they had a spare 2 inches on page 23 ….
figures. the whole avian flu thing seems to have fallen off the medias radar it seems
Things seem a lot worse now folks, don’t know if it’s real, maybe I read too much. The big die off of pigs in China and all the real worries in USA which Goju reported on raise my concern a bit more. Don’t rely on the media radar, just see the prepping websites and what they are saying. Remember that we only need a bit of change in the bug and someone with that change to get on a plane and you will be living off your supplies and wishing for the things you once could have got. Made some major directional changes in investments recently which was scary to do but I think necessary.
It really bugs me that an incident has happpend in Bali and the Australian general public doesn’t know about it. That would seem totally negligent to me.
Maybe some hacker/computer dude should be crashing media empire computer’s with a pseudo comPuterbirdflu virus to wake ‘em up…ANYONE;ANYONE
This is a real worry!
Oh yeh_ what happened in Bali in the end? Maybe it was a false report or_?
Anon at 01:56 - I haven’t checked all the details coming out of the Indonesia outbreak thread but I know the case is still ‘on their books’ so to speak
With reference the possible human infection in Bali, I have checked the spreadsheet kept by our magnificent sleuths and it reports “did not head to bird flu” as the current outcome for the case (8 month old with fever). There have been at least 3 outbreaks in poultry in Bali that I have been aware of though ….
Bali’s tourism trade does not need/deserve it!
Well buying gold turned out to be a s..t investment! However, I stocked up on more pharmacy supplies for treating flu symptoms. Also have a small petrol reserve. That’s it for now, have a good weekend.
At the moment I think there are only about 6 people from Oz and NZ who are posting to this site. It would be good to know if there are others who are ‘just looking’ so we (I) can get a feel for how many people in this part of the world are actively interested in what is going on.
If you are a browser only, perhaps you might like to post here just the once - perhaps use your province or state as your author tag if that is all you want to do to show you are there. It would be nice to know that we have more than 0.0002% of the population looking at this seriously :-)
just a quick hello - to say i read from time to time but i have now been posting semi-reg. finding it hard to get the time to see what the latest news is etc. prepps wise have the tamiflu for the kids, some meds and limited food and water
Hi all-been lurking about 1 1/2yrs on the BF forums and although I’m in NY I’ve an 18 year old daughter at a University in NZ. Your posts are important to me -so thank you. I’m not sure what will happen if the SHTF- how or if I’ll be able to get her home? NZ seems more prepared than US so maybe she’s better off. She has meds with her but certainly no preps in the dorm. So I keep watching. She’ll thankfully be home in November-February when the outbreaks usually peak.
Hi. I have followed the bird flu situation since the Hong Kong outbreak. The potential for a pandemic appears to have increased, not decreased. Last year or so I have seriously lobbied and informed Council, State and Federal local members in Nth Queensland on bird flu awareness with some success. My major defence for my young family is isolation with adequate supplies in a lightly populated food producing area, plus heaps of cheap bulk food for unprepared relatives, neighbours and friends. A friend of mine who is more internet savy runs a website for me. www.bird-flu-influenza.com Cheers
Hi I’m in NZ. Well prepped and waiting for the kick off, but think it will be a little while yet. Plan on getting out of the population centre early and getting well isolated.
Call of the Wild – at 21:35
We also picked up new Mountian Bikes but I could use some tips on what to do to motorize them. Thanks
I’m still about but not as frequently. I’ve levelled off at 3 months worth of foodstuffs etc and mainly concentrating on more general items especially with summer approaching - I live in a bushfire prone area.
Did hear our CEO the other day say “well if there is a pandemic we’ll just have to close” which made me grin :-)
I’m still lobbying our local officials to adopt a community based awareness and preparation program. Most are relying on whatever the Dep’t of Health proclaims….which is not very much at this point. The lack of discussion and information is truly hard to understand….so I remain pessimistic that any meaningful preparation IS being done, or that any WILL be done before the pandemic hits.
Recognising that you can lead a horse to water but you can’t force it to drink, our plans are shifting to how we can evacuate ourselves from the city at short notice to a pre-prepared location.
Sailor, I got the engines we use from Golden Eagle in USA. They seem to be the best around. Just Google them and order on line once you decide which model suits you. You have to follow some instructions, but it’s all easy. We intend to use them on our travels later but we use them once a week now as it is great fun.
Australia is holding a major pandemic flu exercise in October that involves the federal and all state governments….Now lets just hope that the flu waits for it to be completed.
Keep this thread going folks! I got a thermometer today and am trying to figure out an approach to getting Tamiflu. Got most other things a while ago and that made me feel better. I miss the defence threads wHich were popular a few months ago. I think I read too much because when I don’t I get a bit more relaxed about this thing ever happening.
These exercises remind me of the emergency/terrorist ones we do once in a while. We all strategise and rush about so that experts can then bill us for telling us what we did wrong and that we need ever more procedures.
Hi there CotW. I don’t know what the situation regarding tamiflu in Oz is but in NZ it is being ‘advertised’ at local pharmacies - just get your doctor’s prescription and you are in with a $75 charge. It seems that the Drs will prescribe as well .. will confirm next week when I organise mine :-)
Been reading the threads for sometime, trying to form an opinion. Like most here in OZ who are aware of H5N1’s steady progress, the lack of obvious local concern is disturbing. Though I have been advised through a friend fairly high in a vetinary drug company that on the animal side there has been a fair bit of activity/concern. (There company has had a supply of Tamiflu for staff for some time) Our govt opposite approach (as compared to our neighbour NZ) to public awareness is puzzling though… Personally, prepping a bit and talking to fiends abit
NZ has just released the latest version of the Influenza Pandemic Action Plan - makes for good reading - very comprehensive at first glance.
The link is
http://www.moh.govt.nz/moh.nsf/indexmh/nz-influenza-pandemic-action-plan-2006
Call of the Wild – at 00:51
Thank you for the info on the Bike Motors and happy bikeing.
AnnieB;
Thanks for posting that link. It certainly looks better than the Australian plan.
However…..see page 16 on Potential scale of a pandemic, paragraph 2, first sentence. “The model assumes a total Case Fatality Rate of 2%…..”
These folks have obviously done their homework in other areas of the plan. I am, as always, concerned that this unrealistically low CFR will negate all the good planning that is going on. This plan stresses that they are basing the planning on the worst case scenario in order to be responsible, and they to their credit have taken the 1918 pandemic as their guide. But H5N1 is a helluva lot worse than H1N1 in 1918 unless it attenuates down to 2% CFR from it’s present 80% CFR in Indonesia, 60% CFR overall. That is a huge reduction in virulence, and recent commentary on EffectMeasure discusses this issue in some detail and comes to the conclusion that such a dramatic drop is very unlikely.
Anyway, I’m raving again, sorry. I know I’m preaching to the converted here. I would really like to speak to someone who was involved in putting this plan together, and specifically the people who came up with the CFR estimate, to see why they adopted the 2%. Is there any way you could find a contact for me who I could call?
Hi fellow preppers - I have been following this site for around 12 months now with only an occassional posting. I have preps for approx 3 months and have found myself less inclined to worry when I don’t visit the discussion threads. I must say…..after reading this thread and spending a couple of hours surfing the site I am back to the panic mode that once got me prepping. How easy it is to become complacent wen one gets bogged down with every day life. I will be making a committment to visit at least once a week to keep my awareness on track! Fellow Aussies……do make a post and let us know that you are also out there and prepping.
RobT at 01:37 - yes, I thought the rate was a bit low - I first read the “1.6 million people could become ill at this time” on page 16 (while giving the document a quick glance as I created a printed copy for closer scrutiny). I immediately thought “wow - that brings it home” but that is in fact 40% of the population. However, the next sentence about 1.3 million people being sick at the same time is very powerful.
Informally I know that the ‘believers’ in a higher attack rate and CFR were eventually ‘wound down’ by the system and concentrated on getting other significant factors into the document and into subsidiary plans at agency level. I believe they took the attitude that the planning and preparation was more important than the numbers being right at this stage - fair enough too.
The bottom line is that this plan is based in the reality that the current health infrastructure etc cannot cope with that many people sick at the same time and that there are consequences across the ‘whole of government’. This particular plan could not include all the information etc contained in the various legislations and other agencies but these are referred to in those relevant sections.
There is a request for feedback in the document (page iv) or via the website.
Thanks AnnieB. I didn’t see the feedback bit, so I’ll send off a request for info.
Yes, they got the attack rate right I think which is good, but planning for mortuary services for 2% CFR is alot easier than for say 50% CFR. Also the collateral impacts are completely different, as would be the basic strategy of social distancing. By that I mean, at some point if the CFR is perceived as being really dangerous, like 50%, you can forget about trying to get people to keep going to work. Consider the support infrastructure and business processes that allow society to function. My fear is that if this hits like a bomb in the first wave, there will be no effective plan to support effects of a CFR of that magnitude.
I’ve spoken to several planning people here in Oz who have said to me, “It couldn’t be worse than 1918!” to which my reply is “ Says who? Where is the science that supports that viewpoint?”
I havn’t had a response yet that had any substance, IMHO.
Well RobT, given that Sydney has the same population base as all of NZ, talk about 1.3 million Sydney-siders being sick at the same time and see if that evokes a response! If that fails, the house over the street from me has just gone on the market - I could do some negotiating for you :-)
RobT…What would you say are the three most important aspects of making sure that a future pandemic does not reach the giddy height’s of 1918(that if were not done well would spell catastrophe).
I’ll go first.(only 3)
1) Closing of border’s.
2) Ban on all social gathering’s.(including church services)
3) Effective PPE to be available for purchase and made mandatory when in public.
Anon, Oz did close its borders in 1918 but they were open again by the time the 3rd wave went through (March 1919) and suffered losses then. Oz was virtually unaffected when NZ was going through its ‘Black November’.
In NZ, the ban on social gatherings was seen to be effective in lowering the infection rate when comparisons were made across communities. Unfortunately, the Armistice Day parades were hekld just as the ‘flu was breaking so this got it off to a bad start …
I would put very high on that list - alongside number 2 - close the schools
AnnieB,
O.K. I forgot school’s. Very important.
So,
1) Closing of border’s. 2) Ban on all social gathering’s.(including church services and school) 3) Effective PPE to be available for purchase and made mandatory when in public.
It would be nice to ban work too- but I’m just not going to go. (I wish the cricket would be on tho!!)
My vote is for the cricket - and the golf - just watching the Ryder Cup as we speak ;-)
As to closing places of work - I think once schools close then many workplaces would too. As parents will be required to remain home to care for their children, the workforce will be diminished anyway - and many may take this as the ‘signal’ to limit their interaction with others.
Should there be curfew’s? Should people be banned from being on the street’s during a pandemic, unless they are going to or from work? I think it should be enforced somehow, but with less patrol’s going on it may be difficult.
I don’t think there will be a need for curfews - they will be self-imposed once people know that keeping clear of others is the best way to protect themselves. the only exception could be if looting starts…
While doing the News Summary today, I was delighted to see Australia featured again (get very precious about our Australasia bit - must get that description changed one day soon too ..) but I was amused by the type of news that comes out of Oz - as RobT is so often frustrated by, none of the ‘we are doing this to prepare’ (or similar) but a real meaty research story today.
I couldn’t believe that story about Relenza!
But still no prep’s.
Won’t the need for curfew’s(?!?) be present, because people need to be given clear directions otherwise they assume that it’s business as usual. It has to be official.
There has to be a communication. A clearly legible communication.
Anonymous;
Sorry mate, I’m not ignoring your question. I answered and posted the response but it disappeared into the ether! Then the next morning…you guessed it I’ve caught the flu going around Sydney for the last few weeks. Weird symptoms, the worst being persistant headache, so I’ve stayed away from the keyboard over the weekend.
Anyway, to answer your question, I belive in planning for the worst, especially when it is life threatening. I believe Monotreme’s thread assesment is considered, and accurate. We should be planning for a severe pandemic, probably worse than the 1918.
The main thing to accomplish is to NOT GET INFECTED IN THE FIRST PLACE. Everything else is secondary. The best result would be for the majority of the population to SIP with the proper resources and support to be able to do this. So my top 3 priorities are:
1) education to the public about the real threat & how to prepare. 2) prepare essential services to continue functioning. This covers a myriad of things; water, food, power, gas, petrol, police,healthcare, mortuary, communications etc. Generally, this is not being done well from what I can discover. There are exceptions eg. the business continuity planning of Sydney Water. 3) more of number 2.
It is a huge job to adequately prepare all these industries, and sadly it appears to be a case of too little, too late. I truly hope I’m wrong.
Post pandemic I can just hear the excuses from TPTB, “But no-one could have predicted it would be that bad. Our best advice was that it would be much milder, so that is what we planned for. We spent $$$$ & yada yada yada…”
The new ad for Holden cars showing the decrepit city scene is what the place will look like if Monotreme is right. Wouldn’t want to be there!
Hello again all. Would you believe i’ve been sick with this wretched flu going around Sydney? How ironic that it has kept me away from this forum!!
Well Woodstock, how come you didn’t get your flu jabs, hey?
For Rob T:
1. I’m hoping to only get a mild dose of flu or to still be untouched after it’s burnt its way through the population
2. Do my bit at work if this ever gets going, only while CFR is low
3. Survive any civil unrest
4. In the medium term, move to a more self sufficient lifestyle in an area more remote than our current semi-rural one.
Call ot Wild;
I had my flu jab, and still got it. But not as bad as those without the vax, some of my friends were really ill, one was hospitalized.
Hope your feeling better Woodstock!
Re your plan, hmmmm. Not sure how you can plan on getting a mild dose of H5N1? There may be circulating several clades, or sub-types, some less virulent than others, but it really would be best not to get infected AT ALL. As they said after Katrina, HOPE IS NOT A PLAN.
When you sit down quietly and think through what it will take to not get infected, the enormity of the situation unfolds. If you plan on interacting with the “outside” world, and then coming back to your home, how will you prevent infecting others at home? Any children there? Decontaminating for a virus like H5N1 is not to be considered lightly IMHO, and certainly demands careful planning and investment in decon gear and procedures like sterilized clean room (UVC?), sealed transition room, proper PPE with scupulous donning & doffing procedures with subsequent laundry facilities etc etc etc. Not easy stuff.
I still think of things I’ve overlooked or not planned well enough for, even after about a year of setting out on the prep journey. Thank God this virus has held off from going pandemic for this long……but that is only luck. Our luck will run out soon I fear.
Call of the wild: i DID get my flu jabs!
This from the news just a minute ago: http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/suspected-bird-flu-case-in-sydney/2006/09/27/1159036580965.html
some more about the Sydney item - flight number and so on.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200609/s1749808.htm
A man who became unconscious on a flight arriving in Sydney this morning from Vietnam is being treated at St George Hospital.
The man, believed to be about 40-years-old, was aboard Vietnam Airlines flight 783, arriving just before 8.30am AEST.
Ambulance workers went to Sydney International Airport to assess the man’s condition before taking him to hospital.
A Health Department spokeswoman says the man has been isolated in hospital in case he has bird flu.
She says tests are being carried out because he comes from a region where cases of bird flu have been recorded.
Guys, I had the flu and the pneumovax jabs and use drink to keep my immune level down a bit (-: Plus I’m in the 50+ age group now and hope it’s only mild, IF, I get pan flu. How can you prep for a severe case? Apart fron getting your will up to date.
My kids left home and Aus a while ago.
I reckon that Sydney airport case is exactly how it’s going to unfold. How do we know this isn’t the tipping point?
I was talking to a colleague at work who studied the arrival and spread of bubonic plague in NZ and he got a cold chill when I emailed out the story about possible BF on the flight to Sydney. I added that, since none of the other passengers were quarantined, what were the chances some of them were on a connecting flight to NZ. He informed me that the bubonic plague came via the trade routes through Sydney to NZ.
oh now there’s a cheery thought Annie! LOL
What is also being watched (and noted) here in NZ is the spread of TB from one ‘active case’ in a school student who went on a school trip to an inter-schools competition and how many people they are now having to check and monitor. This has been a timely reminder of how easily disease can spread.
i’ve been really slapdash of late keeping on top of what i have available in my *bomb shelter* (which is how the kids describe the tiny room i use for preps! Todays news is maybe a wake-up call to make a wander to the supermarket a priority.
Timely indeed!
I wonder if the man in Sydney at all caused a stir just to raise alarm levels. It was needed.
If that was the case(and even if it wasn’t it’s had the same effect), then it has raised the tremendously important point of what the ##@% were the authorities thinking in not quarantining.
Very important issues have been raised.
I mean…how do you go about quarantining:1) How many people with flu symptoms should you quarantine..i.e. How many plane loads of people should you quarantine (and crew 2) What about the fact that people who don’t show symptoms are also contagious.
Surely these would be easier decisions to make if the traffic was less.
Restrictions on air travel should already be in placen in regards to infected countries!
I almost choose to believe this was a setup to raise awareness and lower apathy.
If it wasn’t, someone should have done it long ago.
Cheer’s mate!
If someone were to say…”but it hasn’t been declared as H2H yet”…it could also be said that a lot of thing’s have not been declared.
Anon - as always I shake my head at the fact that people are permitted to board planes when they are unwell - we screen them at the end of their journey - not the start!
if there is any risk at all of this being BF then why were the other passengers not quarantined i’d like to know!!
What is going on…?
AnnieB-at 3:13
Would it be cynical of me to suggest that people aren’t screened before they get on the plane in order not to turn them around and therefore have to refund the ticket!!?!
(I don’t know if this is true or not_I’m just brainstorming.)
Was this man indeed sick as suggested by anon@3:01, because there are problem’s with implementation of a supposed system. (I assume there is a system of dealing with….)
I am staggered/concerned/flabbergasted/annoyed…no: make that MAD!
Latest news - no BF - questioned now a drug carrier - I wondered that about 3 hours ago when the police were introduced to the case …
Good.
Ah well, I got a bit heated there. Maybe my PPF is more like a 5!
Here’s hoping that system is in place!
None-the-less, this was a good wake-up call for all involved. Hopefully some lessons will come from this all round? And, hopefully it will bring it home to the naysayers that this is how quickly it can happen…
It was a weird report, the fact it was not elaborated on in further new’s bulletins.
You would expect a confirmed case to never be off the air!
I think i’m the only one here that has a boss with a brain
Hey folks, don’t forget that H5N1 is asymptomatic for 2 to 5 days. So the guy is on the plane, he is shedding virus to everyone on the plane, he gets off & takes the train into the city, changes at Town Hall station & takes the train to Chatswood where he meets his friends who he stays with that evening, after going out to dinner at a restaurant. By now there are several hundred people infected, and spreading out to many destinations. Each infectedperson is spreading it to several others each, with some being super spreaders as they are in crowds. A couple of days later he is really sick and goes to the doctor. Maybe the local doc makes a good diagnosis, maybe he/she doesn’t.
It doesn’t matter much at this point, the Genie is out of the bottle, and people are already getting a fever in several countries.
Were you sitting beside one of his contacts on the bus this morning?
OK, I think this is whats going on - the silence from government is deafening - it looks and feels like they’ve got D-notices on all the media not to cover bird flu in Australia. (D-notices are mythical beasts from the 1960′s whereby the government could ‘request’ Rupert’s dad and his mate Kerry not to cover a particular story, and that was that you see; it’s believed that D-notices are brought back to life in ancient arcane rituals carried out in the basement of Kirribili House by the Masonic brethren that represent the core of Liberal party values in Oz! Necromancy is a required course for wanna be members of the House of Representatives)
The problem is that -when we go to stage 4 - commerce is going to grind to a halt - well that’s what they’re afraid of anyway - so they’re putting it off for as long as possible. Which, of course, means that the pandemic will probably, ‘officially’ start in Nebraska or Manly or anywhere in between.
The Indonesians appear to be only reporting deaths - probably because they’re pretty stretched at the moment. By the way did you hear the one about the Oz Aid package to Indonesia to help prevent bird flu that got scuttled by the Papuan refugee debacle. That will play well in 12 months time I suspect.
I don’t think that this is going to come on suddenly, straight away. It’s worth remembering the story about the algae covering the polluted lake, it takes 100 days to cover half the lake and, if the doubling time is ten days, it only takes only ten to cover the rest. We’ll get little scares, followed by big scares followed by bigger scares, with gaps of weeks or months in between until it reaches it’s peak, whenever that might be. It will only be then that we will get a handle on the true mortality rate.
There are lots of if’s and but’s in between, unlike 1919, we’ve got air travel, which means that not just the virus but also immunity can spread just as quickly. Remember that immunity really means survivability in this context. Vaccines are a folorn hope.
Survivability means surviving the infection. Which means controlling the inflammatory response. Elsewhere the potential usefulness of steroids such as prednisolone has been suggested. It’s value has apparently been demonstrated in birds. Prednisolone sprays are widely used to control asthma in Australia. If I was an asthmatic I’d be making sure I had ample supplies, if I used it regularly.
From a home nursing point of view, asthmatic medicines in general are worth hanging on to and may help. Ventolin can be administered safely in large doses via a nebulizer which can be improvised. Although Ventolin’s effectiveness may be short lived and inconsequential. Terpenoid oils(eucalyptus, ti-tree, wintergreen) are spretty toxic to micro-organisms and can be used in nebulizers with some effect.
Effectively you have to remember the ABC of emergency nursing. Maintaining the air way - keeping the lungs open and controlling the breathing is the primary task. Maintaining the circulation, that is keeping the fluids up is the secondary task. Dehydration is a constant threat with fevers, especially in the young or elderly. If oral fluids can’t be maintained the timely insertion of an IV is what matters.
Controlling a rampant fever using, panadol (in children) or aspirin has some limitations. Critically, it is important with both drugs not to go beyond the prescribed maximum dose in 24 hours, no matter what the temperature of the patient. Taking too much panadol in 24 hours for your weight will kill your liver, and you painfully and slowly. Taking too much aspirin and you run the risk of your blood not clotting and bleeding to death.
Despite this both drugs are safe within the prescribed dose and clear the body quickly(within 12–24 hours) and controlling a fever is the key to keeping someone alive. Having a thermometer is important. Remember that chills can occur, which drive the body’s temperature up, but nevertheless have to be dealt with by warming up the patient(until the stop shivering). Responsiveness is the issue here.
It looks likely that most deaths will occur relatively quickly following the onset of disease as a result of the ‘cytokine storm’. Therefore access and viability of medical services is going to be a real issue…
Woodstock- if your Boss had brains he would not have waited until next week to start working from home.
Do they really care.
It’s good he is thinking. But this is Pandemic Flu. It’s only Tuesday, and he want’s to wait a week.!?!
Lucky it was a falsey!
Are We Batteries ?
Indeed. There need’s to be some explanation for this lax in what would have been expected to occur in such a SCARY-ASS announcement.
We’ll see in the paper’s tomorrow.
(I wonder how much a pandemic would effect the media?)
Well actually, do we really know it is a falsey? Did they go ahead and test anyway? Or did they see it as a ‘burst bag in the gut’ case and ignore anything else that “oh by the way, he might also have this illness”.
About the only true statement the health dept person in Oz made yesterday was that ‘infections from poultry are rare’ - because we cannot guarantee what the source of infection is!
So, you are saying that it should have been treated as infectious BF.
Travel restriction’s should be on…testing should be in place for passengers BEFORE they get on the plane.
The trouble of course is, a quick test!?
Bloody scary, isn’t it!!
Thank god for dope dealer’s!?!(It may have allowed us to fine tune a terrible system! Just in time to avert a devastating pandemic!!) Sheesh!;}
Kyangadac;
Can you expand on your thought about rapid plane travel also spreads immunity, as well as the virus (5th paragraph)? I didn’t follow that one.
I hear what you’re saying about home care, but these kids in Vietnam & Indonesia are dying despite IV, and ventilators and IC.
What realistic hope do we have at home to save lives?
I have spoken to a specialist respiratory medico about ARDS, and he doesn’t see any way that an ARDS patient is going to survive at home. Hell, they don’t survive in the best of care hospitals.
Are we reduced to just HOPING for a (relatively) low path clade to be the pandemic strain? That seems like a recipe for disaster to me.
Isn’t it better to focus our attention and efforts are not getting infected in the first place? Don’t bring it back home. Get the kids out of school at the first hint of infection in whatever country you are in?
Let me ask a question base on the assumption of one possible worst case scenario ie 50% CAR and 50% CFR. How many here think we’ll be able to still go to work, assuming good PPE are available, and NOT get infected or bring the virus home?
How many think that we should pretty much just shut down normal activities (with essential services excepted of course) for the duration of the first wave, say 10 weeks?
I’d appreciate your thoughts on the SIP strategy, because out of that single decision there are so many dependant decisions on actions to prevent excessive deaths.
The stomach flu that is goign around Sydney i find is a good training stop for being concious of where your hands go. I have a horror of stomach virus’s so have become much more vigilant about germs because of it
FYI- follow up on the airport BF guy
“A man who sparked a bird flu scare when he became ill on a flight to Sydney from Vietnam may have been a drug courier whose illness was caused by a heroin-filled condom bursting in his stomach…”
RobT- You are talking about 25 % of people dying.
If that happen’s…then you aren’t going to be doing anything like going to work.
You won’t even be letting your best friend in if his house burns down.
You will park the cars in the garage_board up the windows and do nothing but watch tv or listen to the radio. Hopefully you will have food and water!
I can count 56 cases on a chart where it appears most likely the person caught the bird flu from another person. Yet the media reports that there are no cases or just a couple.
Cool?!
How do you figure that!?
I like charts!
Blue;
Your math is good. (LOL) Yep, that’s what I mean, SIP will rule once everyone realises it is really bad. Trouble is, it will not be clear that the CFR is severe until a few weeks go by, and by then, depending on the transmissibility factor, the pandemic could be so well entrenched that there really won’t be any hope of avoiding panic buying, social disorder, exodus out of the cities,etc.
So the trick will be to have people prepared ahead of time, just in case. What a concept!
RobT, I think it is time you moved back over the ditch - at least here the major plans are for closures of schools and places of work are expected to follow on. To SIP at home is just part of the logic and anyone I talk to who has considered the situation has no doubts at all that they are hunkered down for the duration. As to whether they will be fully prepared to achieve that - who knows …
The main point is, you will be considered quite normal here if you intend to SIP, and official moves to do so will occur quite quickly.
Hi AnnieB;
As I’ve said before, going to NZ is a very attractive idea. It’s the timing that is our issue. Just tell me when the pandemic is about a month away and I’ll be in touch.
Seriously, what I’m trying to do here is start with our local council to get the right sort of preps going at the local level. Then we can move onto the bigger picture of Sydney. I’m getting my ducks in a row re information so that when I get a shot at the people who can make a difference, we can get some community preps in order quickly. I am proposing that the council make arrangements for the distribution of food on a street by street basis, and organise the volunteers that will be necessary (equipped with proper PPE, of course) to carry out various tasks in supporting the community during the waves. Wish me luck!
“Quarantine efforts did not prevent the disease from spreading globally, except possibly to delay its introduction into Australia. Due to its isolation, Australia remained unaffected until 1919. By the time the virus reached Australia, the flu strain was not as virulent (serious) but may have remained active for a longer period.”
Klatu at 09:19
Australia immediately imposed restrictions on ship movements into there when the 1918 broke. Of course what was probably not known then, and is now, is the wave pattern of pandemics. It was the 3rd wave that Aussie got in March 1919. I, therefore, question the idea of quarantine only delayed the arrival - I think it was a lack of knowledge about waves.
Klatu;
Nice find, and I just listened to the talk by Dr John Oxford re the 1918 pandemic and it’s relevance to H5N1 and why he is so concerned. As he says, H5N1 is at the top of the Richter scale of pandemics.
I encourage everyone to follow the link in Klatu’s post and listen to Oxfords talk. A couple of interesting points 1) Oxford maintains the pandemic started in the huge army camp Etaple in northern France, not in the USA as per John Barry’s analysis and 2) Oxford is stating that H5N1 will attenuate from it’s present CFR down to something like the 1918 pandemic. He did not give any reasons for this diminishing of the CFR other than, I gather, it has never been so high before ie historical precedent. This is at add odds with Monotreme’s analysis. 3) the spread of the pandemic will come out of SE Asia and be very rapid due to air travel, ie days.
I believe Australia will not be able to keep it out by closing inbound air traffic, even if they try.
RobT: “I believe Australia will not be able to keep it out by closing inbound air traffic, even if they try.”
why do u think so? Surely if nothing is coming in…we’re a bit safer from infection?
Woodstock;
Firstly, I believe they won’t close all inbound air traffic early enough, while asymptomatic cases are spreading it in the first week. The only way this would work is if the Human to human breaks out in a remote region with no travel to metro centres with international air routes. A very unlikely scenario given what we’ve seen in Indonesia already with infrcted patients walking out of hospitals.
Secondly, besides planes, Austalia’s huge coastline allows pandemic refugees from Indonesia to get here by boat and provide the infection nucleus.
I havn’t heard anyone credible state that a pandemic can be kept out, even with the best of intentions.
Woodstock-
Would restricting travel now help? Possibly, even, save the day!?
RobT - I’m assuming 50% CFR is unlikely. We’re seeing that sort of CFR because nearly all the cases being reported are BTH.(Yeah I’ve been reading here about clusters for months). What I’m getting at though is that chickens are an effective reservoir still. Once the disease gets established as HTH then chickens are no longer a reservoir and the rules of the game change. It’s difficult for me to imagine a 50% CFR occuring without a secondary reservoir because of the problem of the disease burning it, as does outbreaks of dire diseases like Ebola - essentially a 50% CFR would cause the virus to burn out as people put up the barricades.
It follows from this that HTH disease will have mild as well as severe forms - therefore case management at home will be a consideration - especially given the likely numbers and the need for triage.
I don’t think that quarantine will work anywhere once the disease is established. Therefore, the critical issue is local hospital response and planning. Having attempted to discuss this with medical and public health staff here in Albany, I’m pessimistic. “head in the sand’ is the most polite way I can describe the attitude. My own GP said that “he’s heading for the hills”, the local head of public health said that we are at Level 3 and she is taking orders from Canberra - end of story.
I cannot tell you too much, suffice to say I am preparing a speech for a colleague to present at a conference in Oz mid October. I have included the map off the Indonesia Case Summary thread and we have increased the size of the text labelling Australia - this is being deliberately done to give the attendees a bit of a jolt. We are aware that several of the prospective attendees believe that their current BCP planning will cover a pandemic as well … sorry guys, we are going to give you a big welcome to the real world!
Please don’t ask any questions on this one - I will tell you more once the conference is over.
AnnieB;
Interesting, please keep us posted as apprpriate. The conference is closed, is it? No chance of attending?
Kyangadac;
I was impressed by Monotremes anaysis of the factors of virulence and CFR based on genetic sequence of the H & N. His conclusion that virulence does not need to drop seems sound to me. Also the arguement that virulence drops due to evolutionary pressure, ie that lower path clades are selected so that the virus doesn’t run out of hosts, is probably valid over a longer timescale. But that is small comfort if huge mortality is experienced in the first and second waves. The virus accomplishes it’s reproductive goal before the host dies, so I don’t see why the virulence would drop until there are are so few humans left that less virulent clades out compete the virulent ones. Note the virulence in chickens has not dropped over time (since 1997). If anything, H5N1 has increased in virulence. But I gather if H5N1 reassorts with a human flu virus, then lower virulence MAY result, as well as partial immunity.
At any rate, I think there is enough doubt about what will happen with the virulence of the pandemic strain, that hoping for a lower CFR is nuts, especially considering the implications if lower CFR doesn’t happen. Planning needs to be ffor theworst case scenario, and that may well be considerably worse than 1918.
Hi RobT - yes the conference is for a specific business community with closed membership.
As to virulence, how do we know a stove is hot until we put our hand on it? How does a virus know it has ‘over-cooked’ until its host dies?
I have started us a new thread for October. It is here
Closed to maintain Forum speed.