Continued from here
Nightowl – at 12:50
Info about nuclear power plants from NRC, April 2006:
“The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has initiated planning to address the potential effects of an avian flu pandemic on its operations and held a workshop yesterday to discuss relevant issues. The NRC is focusing on those critical functions that must be maintained in the event of high absenteeism caused by an avian flu pandemic and the regulatory relief or other actions that may be necessary to maintain the safe operation of nuclear power plants facing similar staff shortages.
Based on federal government planning assumptions, the NRC is determining how to maintain mission-critical functions with absenteeism as high as 40 percent for periods of weeks in the course of a 12- to 18-month period. Other federal government agencies are conducting similar assessments. The nuclear power industry is creating its own business continuity planning and site-specific options, and is discussing its efforts and potential needs with the NRC.
“We need to think creatively and strategically and work together to address this potentially serious issue,” said NRC Commissioner Jeffrey Merrifield, who was asked by Chairman Nils J. Diaz to assume a lead role in the review of the planning effort. “Such a pandemic, should it occur, will be a serious issue for this country, and maintaining the electrical grid while continuing to provide for the safety and security of our communities will be one of the most important tasks this country faces.”
The workshop, closed to the public due to the sensitive nature of much of the discussions, included several panels and drew attendees from other federal agencies, state government and power companies. Discussions included a status of the flu and the availability of vaccines and antiviral medication; steps that might minimize the spread of the disease, including sequestering employees; the status of resident inspectors; the possibility of and process for granting regulatory relief from minimum staffing or work hour requirements; and the possibility of deferring certain activities, such as exercises.
The NRC anticipates continuing discussions with the industry and the possibility of issuing generic guidance or other information in upcoming months.
The agency formed an internal working group in March that is preparing a report, to be finalized in the next few months, outlining what key mission-critical activities the NRC must maintain and how to use teleworking, recent retirees, deferring activities, and other strategies to maintain critical functions. After the report is approved by the Commission, appropriate portions will be made public.”
water goes off frequently down here… sometimes for several days at a time. when this happens, they usually turn it on late at night for a brief period so it will fill the peela’s (cisterns) that sit on the roof and gravity feed water to the house.
moeb. What is with the new tag line on your moniker…CFR6248?
the 48 refers to rate of infection, the backslash disappeared (html thingy)
however it’s really there to say, I believe without doubt we are facing a CFR of 62% with an infection rate of 48%
moeb. Thanks I have a question about that 48%…I will ask you later.
so do you know anyone who wants to sell a good used steam locomotive? I’m thinking of going in the freight business after this is all over (smiles)
pre-emptive answer on the 48%… I used to believe that it was going to be 30% based on historical record. after debating the issue with you in regards to a possible 70% rate of infection, I changed my thinking upwards. when the chips fall and we find out what mother nature has in store for us, I lean toward the 48% being as high as 98.7%
somebody should start a “What We Will Do Different After The Pandemic” thread
98.7%?!? At that rate, you won’t need to buy a locomotive…there’ll be plenty of ‘em in the rail yards…
but getting back to this thread, I now think the train system can be key to saving society and recommend particular attention is given to those stations (repair, etc) that can be saved and revived
now Bill, even if 98.7 percent of the population face getting H5N1, the formula as we know it only says 62% will die, of course the rest may end up sort of spastic the rest of their lives, hopefully this trait won’t pass on to the next generation
Dennis in Colorado – at 10:00
BirdGuano – at 23:49 So without power, and thus irrigation, the production drops like a stone.
Minor point (in the overall scheme of things): most farm irrigation systems with which I am familiar do not rely on power. They only need gravity and someone to open & close the appropriate valves. Here in western Colorado, even when water must be lifted to a higher elevation, it is done hydraulically by running water downhill to spin a turbine and using the secondary impeller of the turbine to lift a lesser amount of water uphill.
Nice for Colorado, but completely not applicable to California agriculture.
We rely on electricity.
California also produces most of the fresh produce and tree nuts for the country.
thinks fresh produce and tree nuts is going to become strictly a local commodity
I swear I’ll quit babbling pretty soon, but this brings up the thread idea of “What We Will Leave Behind”
I am engaged in a bit of work-related research on appropriate PPE for HCW’s and emergency responders.
The literature that I have reviewed suggests that N95 particulate respirators are inadequate to the task of protection from viruses, especially the single-use dust-mask types.
Mind you that this is aimed at HCW’s and responders who may be in close and prolonged proximity to infected individuals.
I am looking for studies and data on the viability of influenza virions in air. I’ll let you all know what I come up with. Meanwhile, I would welcome any cites that you can provide.
Many thanks in advance!
moeb CFR6248 – at 13:45
thinks fresh produce and tree nuts is going to become strictly a local commodity
They are also seasonal, but be aware most of the canned goods sold throughout the country come from California farms and canneries.
So it affects much more than local fresh produce, but also longer term storage food availability for the entire country.
My friend’s family owns a tomato cannery in the San Joaquin valley. They do ONE run when the tomatoes are in, 3 months of non-stop 24/7 processing with huge amounts of transient labor, and all of that is stored in a couple of HUGE warehouses at the end until they get an order, then it’s labeled and shipped by the truckload. They do both consumer size and food service size cans of all kinds of tomato products.
There is VERY little left in the warehouse at the beginning of the new canning season.
Now on to another subject.
What if farmer’s are unable to PLANT the next seasonal crop due to any number of issues. Fuel, seed, etc. ????
there will be a shortage of HCW after the pandemic, I would hope that schools for this are afforded protection and support
now there’s an interesting point BirdGuano, if your friends family not only produces but also processes a food product that has national implications (feeding people) it should get protection and support
in fact this type of operation should be contacted to find out if they are on board with H5N1
so we have trains, farms and food processing. as three key areas to contact locally and nationally to encourage to prepare for H5N1
moeb CFR6248 – at 13:59
now there’s an interesting point BirdGuano, if your friends family not only produces but also processes a food product that has national implications (feeding people) it should get protection and support
in fact this type of operation should be contacted to find out if they are on board with H5N1
They don’t produce tomatoes, that’s contracted out and trucked to the facility. They only process it into final product(s). They even have a couple of USDA contracts.
I’ve already spoken to him about panflu.
The profit margins are so thin, that they have no plans for doing any pandemic prepardeness. He doesn’t figure, in a pandemic, that his transient workforce would show up, and isn’t sure if the farmers would harvest.
So they are prepared to stand-down for up to two full seasons and mothball the plant, which doesn’t bode well for the nationwide food supply.
Granted his is not the only cannery around, but if they all have this same pre-disposition….. Not good.
Basically they can’t afford to prepare was his response.
will there be a need for housing? during or after pandemic.. ie: canvas for tents? source there of?
BirdGuano – at 13:44 Nice for Colorado, but completely not applicable to California agriculture.’‘
Perhaps not applicable in your immediate area but the 500,000 acres irrigated by the Imperial Irrigation District is accomplished through open canals and gravity pipelines flowing from the Imperial Dam on the Colorado River. The 2.7 million acre feet of water that IID delivers each year isn’t pumped.
it would be very good if you would invite your friend to visit here BirdGuano… he might be surprised who would show up to offer help with the harvest
pretty soon this stuff may be the patriotic and moral thing to do
excuse me for inferring he grows the produce as well as processes it
is there any chance a food processor could apply for a grant to say… purchase water storage or a large supply of containers? what kind of grants is the government doing? are they all for vaccine preparation? might they not be open to other avenues of preparing for H5N1?
Dennis in Colorado – at 14:14 --- You’re correct in that Imperial Valley uses quite a bit of gravity-fed irrigation, but in the central and northern San Joaquin Valley, nearly all pumping is done via electricity. Unfortunately, when you Coloradans built the Colorado River, you didn’t extend it up north into California far enough! Lol!! ;-)
Dennis Perhaps not applicable in your immediate area but the 500,000 acres irrigated by the Imperial Irrigation District is accomplished through open canals and gravity pipelines flowing from the Imperial Dam on the Colorado River. The 2.7 million acre feet of water that IID delivers each year isn’t pumped.
The Imperial Valley is a literal drop in the bucket compared to the San Joaquin valley.
From the latest agriculture irrigation survey
“The most common irrigation source was ELECTRICITY, followed a distant second by diesel”
The San Joaquin has MULTIPLE MILLIONS of acres under agriculture.
moeb CFR6248 – at 14:24 --- They wouldn’t be able to store enough water for an entire season. Huge amounts of water go into processing foods…
what about google? I’ve read they are near completion on a large facility that I think is to be self contained (admonishes myself for something you might consider belonging in the rumors section)
anyway we should ask google to fund some grants… think about it. I’m serious.. I think they know things
BirdGuano – at 14:26 --- Yeah, you know how those Coloradans are…. <grin>
moeb CFR6248 – at 14:19
excuse me for inferring he grows the produce as well as processes it
No problem. Most people don’t realize that in the west the food processors do NOT do the growing.
Dennis in Colorado --- only joking with you! :-)
love you all too.. now let’s get back to work
BirdGuano, I admire your regional chauvinism but 5 million acres in the San Juaquin Valley compared to 500,000 acres in the Imperial Valley does not make the Imperial Valley a “drop in the bucket” unless you use a very small bucket or a very large drop. Had you first said that my comments about gravity irrigation were “not completely applicable in California” you would have been correct. Your use, however, of the phrase “completely not applicable” was a falsehood, as I have demonstrated.
My rationale for placing elec below food and water was that we were planning for worst case scnario (eg 50% infecton rate CFR at or near what we are seeing in Indo now). I was merely suggesting that elec could be rationed, so that the available energy could be funnelled to the areas where it was most needed. I’m sure most people would be willing to give up a few hours of elec a day to have the food processors or water treatment plants/pumps up and running, it’s a matter of priority.
Bronco Bill – at 14:30 Dennis in Colorado --- only joking with you!
Careful, or we won’t send ANY water down to the lower river basin :)
To those involved in power production/distribution: Isn’t the concept of rolling brownout/blackouts a fairly labor intensive operation? Are all of the large switches automated, or do power company personnel have to go to various substations and manually change things to have rolling blackouts? If it is a manual process, will that be practical under the scenario of the power companies working at 40–60% staffing levels?
Dennis in Colorado – at 15:41 --- The power company here in CA has it all automated. On every monthly bill, each household is assigned a number, 1–9, and that number is fed into the computers. If the power compnay institutes rolling blackouts/brownouts, the computer does all the work.
Of course, they’re not subject to power blackouts… ;-(
welcomes Thinlina.. may I ask what is your native tongue?
Slightly bended (indecently counted) bnews ased on the story well repeated around the world
“Officials: Pandemic likely --- But in the event of a moderate influenza pandemic, an estimated 3.4 million Michiganians would fall ill, 51,000 (the measure of the hospital beds) would be hospitalized and 2,300,000 would die. In addition, local businesses would lose about 40 or 50 percent of their work force, an authority said. ‘This is serious, and we need to be prepared and work together,’ said the authorities. While seasonal influenza causes between 36,000 and 40,000 deaths annually in the United States, the high-pathogenic H5N1 strain of the bird flu virus is not yet in the United States or the Western Hemisphere despite rapid outbreaks in Asia, the authorities said. But the fear among officials is that infected birds who migrated to Alaska from the East Asian flyway this summer could travel to the U.S. Pacific, Central and Mississippi flyways this fall, authorities said. With the most cases occurring in Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand and China, the mortality rate worldwide is 67 percent this year. The avian flu, which can be transmitted through bird saliva, feces or nasal secretions, is highly virulent to domestic fowl, particularly poultry. Water fowl can be infected but often show no signs of illness. Although the transmission rate from human to human is low, signs of the virus can show up as late as 10 days after a person is affected, while the incubation period for seasonal flu is a mere 48 to 72 hours, the authorities said. ---“
Slightly bended (indecently counted) news based on the story well repeated around the world
“Officials: Pandemic likely --- But in the event of a moderate influenza pandemic, an estimated 3.4 million Michiganians would fall ill, 51,000 (the measure of the hospital beds) would be hospitalized and 2,300,000 would die. In addition, local businesses would lose about 40 or 50 percent of their work force, an authority said. ‘This is serious, and we need to be prepared and work together,’ said the authorities. While seasonal influenza causes between 36,000 and 40,000 deaths annually in the United States, the high-pathogenic H5N1 strain of the bird flu virus is not yet in the United States or the Western Hemisphere despite rapid outbreaks in Asia, the authorities said. But the fear among officials is that infected birds who migrated to Alaska from the East Asian flyway this summer could travel to the U.S. Pacific, Central and Mississippi flyways this fall, authorities said. With the most cases occurring in Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand and China, the mortality rate worldwide is 67 percent this year. The avian flu, which can be transmitted through bird saliva, feces or nasal secretions, is highly virulent to domestic fowl, particularly poultry. Water fowl can be infected but often show no signs of illness. Although the transmission rate from human to human is low, signs of the virus can show up as late as 10 days after a person is affected, while the incubation period for seasonal flu is a mere 48 to 72 hours, the authorities said. ---“
Sorry for double. Why do you ask native languahge? (; Well, it’s Finnish. Like what people in Finland talk.
so as I understand it… you took the above story at 16:29 from an original (report) with a ridiculous low CFR rate and extrapolated the figures mentioned at said post 16:29 with a CFR of 67%?
Finnish is cool, it’s good to know where your perspective is from. I am an American who lives in Mexico, before that (15yrs ago) I was an immigrant to Canada
anyway quite a few of us feel very strongly that the CFR currently shown by the… actual CFR in situ, is it… it’s the most likely we are going to see. that’s what the data says and your body counts probably hold up
moeb CFR6248 – at 16:32 Yes that’s exactly what I did (: Well don’t blame other Finns for what my perspectives are (: Actually in Finland we don’t have much official information other than these 0,44 % CFRs.
you caused a bit of shock with your method, this is because such a way of gather and presenting (especially presenting) is difficult to follow because people get lost in the original story, believing it true.
I mean, they get confused.
then of course some think maybe copyright or such comes to bear.. anyway let’s forget all of that and move on
SO you say that the official line in Finland is that the population faces a CFR of .044%?
OMG I’m not saying that. Wait a minute, I’ll go find the facts. Will come back in a muinute. Wasn’t intending to do any wrong.
if France is 77% powered by nuclear reactors… they’ll have the lights on and of course they already have vaccine product capability
I’d suggest a loooooooong vacation and maybe learn french (I also occasionally lie)
briefly wonders what my posts toggletexted into finnish would look like
makes a mental note to ask the mods to install a universal translator in the next forum software upgrade ;-)
moeb -
The 0.44% figure didn’t come from Thinlina, it came from me. If you read the news article Thinlina linked to, that is how the numbers work out (15,000/3,400,000)
I have repeatedly seen that 0.44% figure used as the worst case scenario for a pandemic outbreak in different areas of planning, in different (US) states. I think it is a crock, and I would like to know where it came from, if anyone knows.
Thanks!
In the first pandemic phase that is thought to last about eight weeks, about 35 % af population will probably be infected. Of them 11 000 - 36 000 will be hospitalized and 3500–9000 will die. In Finland the population is little over five million, so the CFR would be 0,2 - 0,5 % meaning that they are waiting at the most half a percent CFR! To cry or to laugh…?
mmm well are you saying… no you aren’t saying 44% CFR you are saying? I’m sorry I don’t understand the CFR you are quoting The Sarge. Is it extremely minute?
well Thinlina, I used to think 2 in 10 would die from H5N1 (based on 30% getting infected) with the current CFR
moeb CFR6248 – at 17:06 The Sarge’s 0,44% is valid if you believe WHO. In Finland the public prepping is based on WHO’s figures, and they account CFR 0,2–0,5 %. Extremely minute, as you said /:
the real CFR is the CFR, you can count the dead bodies and do the math…. they’ve looked for signs of other individuals who became infected and didn’t die and found pretty much nothing… not a wisp to hang hope on
you don’t have to believe numbers that don’t add up
moeb CFR6248 – at 17:08 That’s about what I think, too. 2 or 3 out of ten. In every Wave, if the Waves are equal in CFR (of course they aren’t).
what is your impression of Fin’s understanding of the threat H5N1 poses? or Scandinavia as a whole?
So, if you have three waves, after the first on, out of ten people 7 or 8 survive. After the second, 5–6 survivors and after the third wave about four survivors. So, after three waves, 60 % of all population would be dead of H5N1. What about the collateral damage: pneumococci, staphylococci, streptococci, no antibiotics, no food, much crime, no electricity…
The Sarge at 17:01: The way I took the article is: that is the number of hospital beds… if they’re all at capacity, that’s the number of people hospitalized. If there is a “usual” number of hospital beds/per x population, that’s where that figure would come from. All beds, at capacity, not the number actually ill enough to require hospitalization.
moeb CFR6248 – at 17:16 Quite many Finn’s seem to think it’s just media hype. Other’s seem to think there’s no use to prepare, because the harm done won’t be able to stop anyway. Some think we’re pulled leg again and they are prepping. Officials write a lot of paper based on WHO figures.
moeb -
The problem is that official plans are being drawn up based on that 0.44% CFR figure. It’s not a matter of whether or not I belive that number (I most assuredly do not!), but that policy is predicated on it.
This then goes to the degree of detail in planning, the preparedness guidance being communicated to the public, and most importantly, the sense of urgency of it all.
assuming all waves were as virulent you still have a growing amount of individuals who survive with immunity (we hope) and also you have a dispersion of population through death or social distancing so the infection rate falls. eventually the pandemic should burn out completely
beyond that you have the effects of retrovirals and vaccines that should have some effect sooner or later
The Sarge – at 17:21 I agree. The plans should be drawn up based realistic CFR, because now the public don’t understand there is any threat at all. 0,44% CFR is less than average seasonal flu CFR in elderly.
as I understand it this thread is an activist thread encouraging you not to accept figures obviously incorrect and to work in any legal manner possible to assist on a community level to save said community
moeb CFR6248 – at 17:23 In 1918 the second wave was the worst one. Retrovirals won’t be useful after the first wave. The virus builds up resistance towards antivirals. What makes you so rsure that the vaccine factories are still running after the first wave (let’s hope so!) and that the delivery system capacity is enough for taking the medication and vaccines (that need refridgerators)to people (let’s hope so!)?
moeb -
Precisely - and starting with calling “B*llSh*t!” to arbitrarily selected (and IMHO ridiculously low) CFR assumptions is a good start.
as mentioned before (smiles) move to france before they close the borders
moeb CFR6248 – at 17:28 Well, whatever. But I don’t see myself as an activist. It’s a thin line between activism, protagonism, democratism…
well I do hope you are a survivalist, we need all the wise we can gather
your chances of dying are great, your chances for heroism is even greater
(now I need to be roughed up a bit) :-)
moeb CFR6248 – at 17:35
(: I like your way.
Others on the forums have indicated that there simply is not enough packaged food or bulk food to prep for all of us for 3 months. Much less than 10% of the population could prep that amount - it isn’t available in warehouses due to JIT inventory management. In addition, the average product at an American grocery store travels 1,400 miles to reach your neighborhood. If that is true it is an excellent reason why public officials and infrastructure management don’t talk about it. It would simply lead to a panic as most of us realize we cannot adequately prep.
Some officials may be animated by responsibility to mankind, but many more are attracted to power so civil disorder is their hot button. It is reasonable to assume they see the risk - the WEF “Global Risks 2006″ that was developed my Merrill Lynch, The Wharton School, Marsh & McLennan, SwissRe and the WEF is a good indication that TPTB (at a high level) see the risk. But they may be prudent in doing whatever preparation is possible without tipping their hand to the public if widespread preparation isn’t possible. Those boys will prep to maintain public order and secure or expand their powers.
On another note, there has been a lot of discussion of whether water or power is more important. Isn’t it fair to say that a community needs power first but a family second. After all, many families ( but not all, I know) have access to water without the power company.
BirdGuano – at 00:09 ”We’ve already been instructed by a county rep. who took a FEMA course to be self-sufficient for 12 weeks and to expect no electrical power after the second week.”
That is a mouthful! Can you expand on that? Does ‘We’ mean the fire company or all the fire fighters too? Did the rep expand on that statement? What does it mean?
Personally, I cannot wrap my head around a worst case scenario. As I work on preaparing plans/presentatons should I be assuming ‘1918′ or Indonesia? and I am sure TPTB face this on a macro scale. What would/do you do?
at this stage you do not tell a lie
sorry a little rush of adrenalin there… I guess you’d mention that the participants may have heard figures based on 1918 for a number of reasons, however they should be aware of what the CFR in Indonesia is saying
if people are going to use that as an excuse to not prep.. so be it.
ssol, I think the point is that if the PTB ramped up their message and increased the length of time to stock supplies for, people would have time to do this slowly if they are not in a state of pandemic panic. IMHO, awareness needs to be developed based on the truth of the situation. If people feel the need to prepare now, there is still time for them to do this without jeapordizing the JIT economy. There is still time for stores to restock their shelves. Problem is an accurate message is not getting out there. Many people remain unconcerned at a community level because they are not aware. In recommending 2 weeks worth of supplies as they do in my state’s plan, they are setting the population up for a panic buying situation where supplies would run out quickly.
Science Teacher – at 18:35 I am in general agreement with you, but keep in mind that for a meaningful percentage of the country to prepare properly “slowly” would mean several years. I am not sure how many but at least 5. If the TPTB - at a very high level (state, federal and transnational corporations) believe, suspect or are afraid the pandemic may occur sooner than that - they’ll just let us muddle through. They will see that a panic prior to a possible pandemic is more likely to affect their power, so let it burn.
I don’t see why it makes sense to base estimates regarding a “worst case” CFR on a virus that struck almost a century ago. It makes more sense to look at the virus we’re actually dealing with, though it hasn’t mutated into a pandemic strain yet, and the CFR may or may not change if/when it does. Calling 1918 the worst case scenario is analogous to saying that a hurricane forming at sea can only be a Category 3 because our coast has never been hit by a Category 4 or 5 storm. We are really preparing for an entire continuum of possibilities, including the CFR we have seen to date. To prepare for less would be naive.
The pandemics of ‘57 and ‘68 were kinder to us, some maybe someone in TPTB is hoping, wishing… Can we really prep for what we are seeing in Indonesia now?
InKy – at 18:59 - You have to start somewhere, right? If you base it Hong Kong flu or Ft. Dix we don’t have to do much of anything.
It is very likely that the CFR is not anywhere near 60% today - but we cannot measure it accurately because our sample pool is so unrepresentative of those that may have really been exposed to H5N1. The flu may not ‘hammer’ everyone that gets it. It may be a mild or moderate case of flu in many, many people. But we do not get accurate samples of them because the do not go to the doctor - especially in countries such as Indonesia that do not have robust medical systems. So we only test the ‘hard cases’. That will skew CFR numbers way, way up. On the other hand, maybe a few hundred people in the world are all that have gotten H5N1 - then a 60% CFR may be accurate and precise. We simply do not know yet so many prepare for a worst case.
Hi Thinlina! good to see a neighbor :) your official Finnland number are the same as Norwegian, Sweden and Denmark.. based on WHO saying.. and lowered because a belif that a healthy nutrition and healthcare (tamiflu, antibioticks etc will help a lot.. dreamthinking that is…
sorry that was me :)
ssol @ 19:o8 — I thought the serological studies — 2 of them, if memory serves — have not supported the idea that there are mild or subclinical human infections of H5N1. Sorry I don’t have a cite handy, I’m just going from memory. Anyone else? If not, a quick search here should turn up the goods. It’s rather daunting. From it I gather the CFR stands as is.
I have not found reference to any mild H5N1 flu cases. The only survivor that we know much about is Jones Ginting from Indonesia. After battling the H5N1 virus for months it affected his central nervous system. When he was released his xrays showed shadows on his lungs as part of the dishabilitating effects of the disease. He won’t be recovering any time soon. The high CFR stands as it is on the cases we know of. Unless new information appears that would change this, we must accept this based on what we know at this point time. There is no proven scientific evidence that states that this rate will go down. More people need to be made aware of this so that they can adjust their preparations accordingly.
The Sarge at 17:01
— I have repeatedly seen that 0.44% figure used as the worst case scenario for a pandemic outbreak in different areas of planning, in different (US) states. I think it is a crock, and I would like to know where it came from, if anyone knows. —
I’ve seen you ask this on a thread or two today Sarge — have you found an answer yet? I’m quite curious as well. Are people saying it is coming from the WHO?
If this is the estimate planners are using, I can see why people would not be approachig the idea of a pandemic as solely a health-care problem and not be thinking about the effects on things like the infrastructure, food supply and so on — as in, get through a few weeks of illness and then get back on with life.
ssol, etc
The few seroprevalence studies suggest there are almost none or very few asymptomatic or mild cases, so the current CFR should be not too far off the mark.
However, much of the biology of flu virus evolution is still unknown. There is no science that says the CFR has to decrease if it becomes a pandemic strain. The best explanation that I came across was from Malik Peiris of Hong Kong who said that if a pandemic strain arises as a result of reassortment with a human strain, then there may be a certain degree of immunity, not enough to prevent infection, but maybe enough to cause milder disease and therefore a lower CFR.
There is also no science that the CFR has to stay high.
We can only say that the pandemics that we do know about in the 20th century did not have such high CFR’s as what we are seeing now. But we don’t know what factors present in previous pandemics might be present in the next one, so it really is all guesswork.
softly sings “I hear the train a comin´ it´s rolling round the bend and I ain´t seen the sunshine since I don´t know when…”
Hi everyone Interesting conversation.
Sarge. The .44% CFR comes from that estimate of 2–7 million trumpeted two years ago.
I did not just wake up one morning in 2004 and decide to be angry with the WHO.
Not long ago, I had a great deal of respect for the WHO but in retrospect, I had a good deal of respect for the WHO when they did not have a serious issue to test their intellectual-analytical-predictive resources like SARS. They bungled it, then they covered it up and then the re-invented history to make themselves look good…we appeased them and so why change things…for the last two years they have followed the exact same strategy with H5N1…downplaying everything…deliberately misleading or worse…
…only this time we got the ‘frankenstein’ ‘freak’ virus of a thousand years to contend with…they gambled it was going away…it didn’t and this probably says more for their incompetence then anything else.
What would I do at this point if I was in a postion of authority?
I would summon the twenty best scientists in the world…Dr’s Webster, Osterholm, Osterhaus, Taununburger, Peires and the others from Hong Kong etc.
I would charge them as you would charge a jury…go in that room…give me a list of pandemic potential viruses…then pick one and give me your consensus as to when…
…now give me the actions that you think are required and the funding required to the best of your ability…I want a written report in five days…
…then I would summon the world’s media and go on television and state that there is good news and bad news…the bad news is that we have a ‘freak of nature’ on our hands…the good news is that we have discussed the situation with our enemies, we are calling a truce and we are going on a war footing against H5N1…
…I can’t promise you that this is not going to be tough going but we are now going to do everything in our power and spare no resources to ensure that your communities are protected…and all other governments we expect will be following suit over the next month.
Good Evening Tom,
I’ve concluded we can bypass the bottleneck, the WHO, CDC and similar government organizations. we go straight to where it can be saved, trains (think steam), farms (where we can) and food processing plants (those likely to have access to water). keep those alive and we survive
Moeb. I agree and like I said when you were chasing ‘you know who’, I want some of whatever your on!!
yer a bad man :-) so didn’t you work in food inspection? as in plants… do you have a method where key plants might be located? or do we just call dal monte?
moeb. No I was a practising farm veterinarian who also was accredited by Agriculture Canada-Health of Animals division to prepare animals for export to other countries of the world and to do other jobs as well.
I became aware in Sept 1998 of a problem of food quality that was so obvious my dog Clover could have figured it out…I went to my colleagues figuring the product would be given the adios from Canada in two years…it is still here 7 years later.
I then learned the realities of the change in mandate from the Agriculture Canada to the Canadian Food Inspection Agency which included a double mandate…promotion of food and inspection of food at the same time…go figure..
…I have not commented on the CDC because it is not in my country…other that to say that they helped save my life in 1981.
…I also chose not to speak about regulatory agencies in my country to other than citizens of my country…but to be honest…I no longer give a damn…they can kiss my…oops!!
kinda thanks Oremus for the latest CFR numbers
Sorry, should have said ‘figuring the product would be given the adios from Canada in two weeks…it is still here 7 years later.
I know what you mean.. I avoid some meat shops here (especially this time of year) they’ve been there forever
shivers a CFR of 66.6666 is creepy, not fit to tag behind a persons handle
Moeb. I understand the 62 but how do you figure that 52 % of the world’s population is going to avoid the equivalent of the common cold which they have absolutely no immunity to?
well ah… this is like wondering if the real strategy behind Iraq isn’t bird flu related, our guys will have tamiflu right?
receives a yellow flag for breach of thread and loses two points for raising the specter of politics
I don’t know, it’s a small hope in hell I guess… historical precedent being the only guideline as it was recently stated that only about 100,000 were going to survive through prepping (a lot of you lurkers must be lying about those trips to the grocery store?)
One thing I forgot to mention was that Agriculture Canada became the Canadian Food Inspection Agency in 1997.
Also we did not only have SARS in 2003 but we had the first BSE cases in North America one month after the SARS outbreak…
…as a result of some minor slip-ups, the Canadian Government and surprisingly enough the Canadian Food Inspection Agency is being sued for nine billion dollars by the farmers of Canada for incompetence leading to this outbreak…
…and as a matter of fact, the farmers of Canda are going to win this case about seven years from now…
…the moral of the story that should be kept in mind with the WHO…is that when they are screwing up one issue that you know about…they are screwing up a multitude of issues that you don’t know about and will never know other than for minor slip-ups like the BSE outbreak.
Closed and continued here.