From part IV
Medical Maven – at 17:36
Monotreme: The beef cattle out on the range would disappear overnight, rustlers and poachers would eliminate generations of breeding in a few weeks. Lots of primeval-like gorging would be going on and very little would get to the jerky stage.
Farmers should go with wheat. “Wheat is a weed” as the old saying goes. It has nine lives and rarely is “shut out”. It generally does not need the “tender care” and pampering that today’s corn crop needs, and it is harvested at the time of the year when it will dry down in the field so it can be binned without gas dryers or electric dryers. All you have to do is to make sure that the rodents can’t get at it and to treat the bins with malathion beforehand to forestall any bug problems. Milling and transport (or transport and milling) is all that is left to get it to the consumer in a digestible form.
farm girl – at 18:13
Well, Okieman covered most of the “hidden” labor aspects of grain farming for me while I was away. Thank you Okieman! You were very thorough, and it’s saving me a lot of typing.
How can we guarantee that seed, diesel, and chemicals will be available to farmers in the event of a pandemic? All of those products are produced by big business. How much labor does it take to grow, bag, and ship the hybridized grain, make diesel fuel, and produce, package, and ship the fertilizers and herbicides that we use just in the U.S. each year? Can the “average” farmer today make do without this stuff, or can they make it themselves? That’s my big concern. Then you start thinking of the manufacturers who make the packaging materials, equipment parts, the metal/rubber/plastic industries who supply the packaging materials manufacturers, farm equipment dealerships, mechanics…
We are small farmers, and thanks to my ancestors throughout the past 130+ years, we have a variety of “low-tech” equipment hanging around that could be used in the event of an interruption of goods and/or services, but this isn’t the case for many. The problem with our primitive equipment is that it would make farming even our small acreage nearly impossible without hiring farm hands. What took a weekend would take weeks without additional help. That’s why we store 800 gallons of diesel, 600–900 gallons of gasoline, and will have 1200 gallons of propane hopefully next week. But we are aware of the possibility of pandemic, lots aren’t. Given the prices of fuel of all varieties, how can we convince farmers living on the margin that they should stock up for something that may or may not happen?
BTW Monotreme, turning our cows into hamburger is EXACTLY what we plan to do if there is a pandemic, but we’ll keep them on hay (definitely not a people food) until our town is getting hungry. That way the carcasses will do some good. Any lactating animals will be giving us milk instead of the calves. It won’t go far with the small number of critters we keep, but something is always better than nothing as far as I can tell.
Medical Maven – at 17:36,
I’m suggesting that the conversion of beef cattle to beef jerky occur before things get too bad,ie, the second the government is sure that the pandemic has started. The jerky would be rationed to the public on a per capita basis, with the exception that essential workers would be first in line.
The federal government would compensate cattle ranchers and promise to help them get back into business after the pandemic was over. Breeder stock would be kept in a secure location.
My question is, how long would it take to liquidate most of the beef cattle and turn them into jerky? What would have to happen now to prepare for such a massive process?
farm girl – at 18:13
I agree with you and Okieman that large-scale farming is an energy-intensive business and that fuel, spare parts and fertilizer will be needed. However, I don’t see why we couldn’t stockpile fuel, spare parts and fertilizer, right now. This is where leadership and proactive planning come in. The federal government should pay for the stockpiling, not individual farmers. Preventing mass starvation is a national security issue, not a business continuity issue. I would also suggest that the federal government start buying food from farmers for stockpiling right now. The current policy of paying farmers not to grow food seems insane to me given the situation.
We need to anticipate the problems and take the necessary steps towards a solution before a pandemic occurs. I agree that if we wait until the pandemic has started, there would be massive problems with keeping large-scale farming going. And again, I’m not against home gardens or small-scale farming, I intend to pursue the former myself, I just don’t think we can hope to feed the people in the mega-cities without large-scale farming.
The only thing that I can count on in my garden is tomatoes. When I try to grow something from seed it gets moldy. My flowers are great, but I can’t eat them.
Hmm, this requires a lot of thought, and all I’m stuck on is the food. I think part of the problem with the solution you are suggesting is fairly simple: Where are we going to store all the food, fuel, and fertilizer? How can we ramp up production? And who is going to pay for it?
Storage is a huge issue, for obvious reasons. Labor and materials cost, personnel, land, etc.
Production, particularly of fuel, is one of the biggies on my list of worries. Most of our refineries are functioning at or near peak production levels. If you take X number of gallons out of the system, won’t that drive up the price of fuel even higher than it is now, providing there isn’t a corresponding drop in demand? Preparing for the long term might well cause great harm to people in the short term. How are you going to convince our gas-guzzling world to consume less? Right now, the cost of metals and plastics are high as well, as are labor costs, but I won’t go there.
Now the problem of who will pay for it. It’s really easy to put off this part of the problem of the government, but in the U.S. we ARE the government. Should we cut education spending, social security payments, or just tax the citizen a bit more? Everything’s a trade-off, but will people be willing to trade road quality for food security, especially given the uncertainty of the situation?
As for the government paying farmer’s not to grow food, plans like CRP and the like have obvious value during certain times. Without this type of setup, during periods of high importation, bumper crops, or low market values, a whole lot more farmers would be in a different line of work. Unfortunately, because the government is so freakishly large, it is unable to move quickly, so we don’t have the luxury of adapting to change on an as-needed basis.
I think that the feeding of the world is probably best left in the hands of the people who are doing it now. Make the government responsible and you’re almost sure to screw things up even more than they are now. There has to be a solution here somewhere, but I can’t for the life of me figure out what it is. All I know is what we (and a few neighbors) plan to do for our smallish (10,000 people or so) community.
farm girl – at 22:11
All well said. And might I add, with a great degree of tact and diplomacy. Food production and its attendant issues are a lot more complicated than most folks realize. For the majority of people, if you ask them where their food comes from, they will say “the supermarket”. Like clean drinking water, abundant food is taken for granted in much of the US.
Monotreme at 20:51: I reviewed LMWATTBULLRUN’s Salt thread. A salt brine medium for the storage and shipment of beef that would be safe to eat for “weeks to months” would be a better way to go. The British Navy of old took it to sea with them in barrels. The shelf-life of “salt beef” is better than dried jerky and the processing would be more expeditious. And out here on the Plains there is a convenient nexus in the middle of cattle country for this process, and it is near major cross-country rail intersections that could ship the beef East and West. (I did some googling).
Hutchinson, Kansas has one of the largest working salt mines in the world. It has 67 miles of large vaulted rooms with ceilings 10 to 17 feet high and a constant temperature of 68 degrees. The mine lies 650 feet below the surface, and is also used for the storage of valuables from all over the world. Very salty layers of water underly the whole area”s geologic structure.
I could imagine cattle drives like they used to have coming into Kansas from a four to five state area. In fact, communities throughout the area could access fresh beef through barter as the herds moved through. Winter would not be favorable, but any other time of year would be as long as the cattle could get water and some roughage as they moved along. They don’t have to be prime or fat for our purposes.
The mechanics of getting that area ready for such an operation are beyond me, but I believe it would be simpler than drying and more energy efficient.
Well, that is my brainstorm. And it would work if you had a workforce to crudely process the beef and a working railroad system.
And I am sure the cowboys (and yes, they still have horses) would be game, if their country and livelihood were at stake.
farm girl – at 22:11,
When difficult decisions need to be made, leadership is required. How much fuel do we really need to keep combines going for 2 years? I don’t know if buying this much diesel would drive the price up, but if it does, I’m OK with that. Food security = National security. Any government that fails in that fundamental duty has failed its citizens. Any citizenry that isn’t prepared to make sacrifices to gurantee security will reap death and destruction. A good leader knows how to explain things so that citizens will support the right choices. I’m thinking of FDR during WWII.
As far as what cuts need to be made, let me point out that the budget for homeland security is $35.6 billion. I am OK with some of my taxes going to provide food security. I think most other people would as well. There are other things that could be cut from the budget than the ones you list, but I won’t go there ;-).
I’m not debating the merits of CRP in general, that is beyond the scope of the Wiki. What I’m arguing is that we are facing a clear and present danger, right now. We have known about this danger for 2 years. And still we do nothing about food security. Don’t you think it’s time to use the money that pays farmers not to grow food to, instead, grow food for a stockpile?
I think that the feeding of the world is probably best left in the hands of the people who are doing it now.
Well, I don’t know how to respond to this. Do you really think if we do nothing now that farmers will be able to feed everyone in the mega-cities? There have been many, many comments on this thread suggesting that that will defintely *not* happen without advance planning. Please outline your scenario for how the farmers will feed everyone during a severe pandemic without any advance planning or assistance from the federal government.
All I know is what we (and a few neighbors) plan to do for our smallish (10,000 people or so) community.
Again, I’m all for small communities planning to take care of themselves. But, just for a moment, imagine that you and eveyone you care about would have to live in an apartment in Manhattan for the duration of a pandemic. Would you feel the same way about leaving the federal government out of food security?
The government does some things quite well and other things quite poorly. During WWII, there was very extensive government control over food distribution, energy and many other things. All in all, they did a pretty good job allocating scarce resources. When the crisis was over, we went back to rampant consumerism, which is OK too. In general, I prefer free markets to goverment control. However, in a time of all-out war, which is the best analogy for what a severe pandemic will be like, central planning is essential.
Without it, expect a thousand Katrinas.
Medical Maven – at 22:33
I like your salt brine/beef idea.
Monotreme – at 22:41
I’m sure farm girl can answer for her self, so this is not to try to cut her off in any way. I would like to hear her take on this.
But the need to stockpile fuel is a non-starter for me. The reason? When a pandemic decends upon this nation the majority of non-essential travel will come to an end. There will be a wild flurry at the beginning, but then a deafening quiet will likely occur on the nations highways.
Your statement- “Do you really think if we do nothing now that farmers will be able to feed everyone in the mega-cities? There have been many, many comments on this thread suggesting that that will defintely *not* happen without advance planning. Please outline your scenario for how the farmers will feed everyone during a severe pandemic without any advance planning or assistance from the federal government.”
With all due respect, most folks making the “many, many comments” probably have no idea what is involved in production agriculture and are speaking out of a certain degree of ignorance. The scenario for how farmers will feed everyone during a severe pandemic? Enable them to keep doing what they have been doing year in and year out, producing the food this nation consumes. If anything, during a severe pandemic there will be less of a need for all the food the farmers can produce because there will be less mouths to feed due to people dying of the panflu.
As long as the farmers of this nation are given tools they need they can produce more food than this nation can consume. It has been this way for years. The food issue is a non-issue. It is the electrical grid that is THE ISSUE.
Okieman – at 22:59
When a pandemic decends upon this nation the majority of non-essential travel will come to an end.
Agree. But don’t you think *someone* has to be in charge of making sure the fuel gets to the farmers that need it? As you mentioned, timeliness is key. Why not plan the logisitics ahead of time? My thinking is that the military could help with this. Also, there is the issue of fertilizer and spare parts. If we don’t stockpile them now, where will we get them in the middle of a severe pandemic?
Enable them to keep doing what they have been doing year in and year out, producing the food this nation consumes.
That’s what I want too. The question is, what’s the best way to make sure this happens.
It is the electrical grid that is THE ISSUE.
I agree this is the top issue. Any ideas on how to keep it up?
Okieman, thanks for your comments and for “respectfully disagreeing”. P.S. I lost my “she who must be obeyed hat” years ago, so disagreements are safe. Now you have made me worried about the onset of dementia as I am positive that I saw read an article recently regarding US wheat farming and I thought I remembered that the jist of the article talked about large scale agricultural companies buying out the farmers, so that there was a reduction in farmers, single crop production by the larger businesses and . . .and . ..something else. I actually saved it because it was interesting, so if I can dig it up, I will try to tap into your experience and knowledge to see if you agree or disagree.
And, perhaps you can answer this for me. When the US delivers food to other countries, like Countries in Africa, during times of starvation, don’t they deliver rice? Why rice? Why not something with more nutrition?
Medical Maven – at 22:33
<snip>
“There were 97.1 million total head of cattle in the U.S. as of Jan. 1, 2006, Feuz said. That is a 1.78 percent increase from 2005 cattle numbers and a 2.33 percent increase from 2004.
The total number of beef cows that have calved is at 33.3 million head, an increase of 1 percent over 2005. Beef replacement heifers were at 5.9 million head, a 4 percent increase over the prior year.”
<snip>
http://ianrnews.unl.edu/static/0605012.shtml
I lived a thirty minute drive north of Hutchinson, Kansas for 3 1/2 years. I am very familiar with the area. The bulk of the slaughter/processing facilities in this country are in the Dodge City, Garden City and Liberal, Kansas areas. That said, 97.1 million head of cattle (or even half that number) is an incredible number to discuss slaughtering and storing in brine.
No, the thing to do is to ramp up production to process all cattle in the “loop” and store and distribute normally until the pandemic makes it impracticle. All other cattle should remain on pasture until needed locally. What you are suggesting is not doable, whether you are talking jerky or brine solution. Making jerky is a time consumeing and costly process. In Kansas you have all the salt you could ever need, but what are you going to put the meat and brine solution in for storage? Are you going to put 40 million cattle in barrels of brine?
I’m sorry, but during a severe pandemic large scale meat processing will simply stop until it is past. In my opinion, what you are suggesting are not viable options.
Monotreme-
Rabbit Jerky recipe:backwoodsboundDOTcom/zrabb1DOThtml(I tried that tiny URL thing but could not get it to work.) They also have a “cajun Squirrel” recipe there and recipes for all sorts of animals who might be interested in your garden. Don’t forget reptiles. Perhaps, a “Snakes in a Stew on a Plane” might sound appetizing in a pandemic. ;-)
Also, I thought Michael Olsterholm played a part with food security for the US through CIDRAP (Okieman may have to check my memory on that one ;-). I wonder what he has to say about the larger picture or he has any part in recommendations for food during a pandemic.
Also, has anyone contacted the grain farmers to see if a pandemic prep is on their grid yet? Might be interesting to see what their opinion might be.
Ange D: The big corporations have tried farming. And they gave up. There are fewer farmers, but the farmers still surviving are still the third or fourth generation “family farmers”. They farm more acres with bigger machinery, year-round hired help, and seasonal equipment hire. And they are going broke, and where the next generation of farmers is coming from I have no idea. Just add it to the rest of our crises.
Okieman – at 23:19
I’m sorry, but during a severe pandemic large scale meat processing will simply stop until it is past. In my opinion, what you are suggesting are not viable options.
Well it was worth a shot. I realize that it would be impossible to do once the pandemic had gotten to the US, but maybe it’s just not doable.
Ange D – at 23:22
Thanks for the rabbit jerky recipe, looks like I’ll be needing it.
Also, has anyone contacted the grain farmers to see if a pandemic prep is on their grid yet? Might be interesting to see what their opinion might be.
I would like to know this as well.
Okieman at 23:19: Yes, that was a bit of a “pie-in-the-sky” hair-brained idea. (Sometimes you can get too creative). : )
But my first try at it saw the same scenario you put forth. In other words, “game over”.
hmmmm . . .I am thinking that there must be an organiation of grain farmers somewhere out in the mid-west. Does anyone have any contacts with anyone out there to get their opinions? I know someone out in the upper mid-west who is a large scale grain grower, but I think the majority viewpoint would be better than just one grower.
Does anyone know if there is sufficient grain NOW to feed the US? Things in Indonesia are looking ominous and it’s only August.
Also, suppose a pandemic loomed late in the winter. Does ANYONE have a clue as to who in the government is in charge of organizing food or relief? Having a bunch of grain stored in silos is still an unmanageable task is there is no one to grind the grain or process it into a useable food item. It’s going to take electricity and water to process for food as well as gas and manpower to distribute. At the rate that the government organizes things, there is not enough time to organize this picture, but less enact it.
The whole picture looks dismal.
Monotreme – at 23:09 “But don’t you think *someone* has to be in charge of making sure the fuel gets to the farmers that need it? As you mentioned, timeliness is key. Why not plan the logisitics ahead of time? My thinking is that the military could help with this.”
I strongly suspect that there are plans addressing this issue already. They are just not trotting them out for all of us to see. We have strategic oil reserves. If I am not mistaken, they were first established to provide fuel for essential needs (such as agriculture) during long term emergencies. Any more they are used as political pawns by one party or the other to try to drive fuel prices down. That was not their original purpose.
As far as spare parts is concerned, if a part was not available then a neighbors equipment would likely do the job. Also there are many new tractors, combines and other farm implements sitting on dealers lots. I believe we would be okay for a few years before it would significantly affect the overall production.
To be honest, I can not address the fertilizer question. I need to do additional research (later) on stocks, imports…etc of fertilizer and other ag. chemicals. This is one area where we need someone with Ag. Economics education and real world experience.
How to keep the grid up? Build more plants. Have contingency plans to start rolling blackouts if needed. Contingency plans to cut off (shut down) parts of the grid that threaten to pull the rest of the grid down. If an arm has gangrene that cannot be healed, it must be cut off before it kills the rest of the body. Brutal, but essential for survival.
Ange D – at 23:11
Yes, large corporate farming is attempting to move into grain production. But it is still very much the minority when it comes to acreage. Give them a few more years though, and the small family wheat farmer will go the way of the small family poultry and swine farmer.
I believe rice is used because it stores well, and does not require grinding or milling before use. You just add water, bring to a boil, let it simmer a while and eat. As long as one has a pot, an ignition source to build a fire and wood for fuel then you have something to eat. I wouldn’t want to go for months on this diet though.
Okieman: As long as the farmers of this nation are given tools they need they can produce more food than this nation can consume. It has been this way for years. The food issue is a non-issue. It is the electrical grid that is THE ISSUE.
That’s the entire point I’ve been trying to make in this thread.
Electricity is now the life blood of this nation.
Let me repeat.
Without electricity, as the western world is now configured, EVERYTHING will come to a screaching stop.
PERIOD.
It should be at the TOP of the planning and priority list, because without it, food, water, transportation, medicine as we know it will NOT exist.
It is a matter of National Security.
Ah, if I were dictator for a day, the Executive Orders would be flying right and left. And they could hang me the next day, if only they would implement them.
Monotreme, I am simply not smart enough to keep up with you. I honestly don’t have any answers to offer, much beyond my town and my own experience is outside of my range of knowledge. I’m just trying to point out a that NOTHING is simple or easy when it comes to food production, be it grains, or fruits, or nuts.
The government is very good at some things, otherwise it wouldn’t be around. But there is a huge difference between a war that is occurring and a pandemic that may occur. How much planning and rationing of commodities happened BEFORE WWII? Right now, we are BEFORE a war with pandemic H5N1 if I am not mistaken. Anyhow, how many people do you suppose are out there that are just barely scraping by already, whether by misfortune or stupidity? Will they be willing or able to pay $1/gallon more today just in case there is a pandemic tomorrow?
I know that there are many areas of government spending that could be cut, but who decides which ones are important and which aren’t? I’d bet that for every single government expenditure there is a group of people who think it is one of the most useful ways to spend government dollars. If you happen to be retired, or have retired family/friends, Social Security is a must-have, but if you have small children then education is important. There are a lot of programs I think are just plain stupid, but somebody obviously likes them, and how can I complain? They have just as much right to an opinion as I do.
There is one obvious benefit to CRP that you might not know about: We don’t have anywhere to put more grain. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve seen farms with huge piles of corn laying out on the ground. We don’t personally benefit from CRP, so as far as I care you could dump the program tomorrow, but you’d better have some storage built and some purchasers lined up first or we’ll be having a bigger farm crisis than in the 80′s. If there was a shortage of things like corn, prices would be up over $2/bushel. The whole point of CRP is to save the land a little wear and tear while we don’t need the production level so high and to keep the prices steadier so stupid folk like me can keep doing something that hasn’t been profitable in decades.
I’m going to try to be very nice on this next point. We ARE feeding the megacities right now. If you would like us to keep feeding them, then EVERYBODY has to do their job. The whole idea of an “essential” worker becomes pointless because we are all essential workers (or could be) in the global marketplace. If you want my combine running, the person who makes bushings better be at his machine. The people who refine my diesel better be at work. The guys who make the bags to hold the seed should show up to work. The guy who hauls our harvest in better come get it. If he drops dead, I hope to G-d the lady who sells candles can learn to drive a truck real quick because I’ll be busy with the harvest. Rather than shutting down the world, which would be a first as far as I can tell, maybe we should focus on encouraging people to do what needs to be done. As you said, “Any citizenry that isn’t prepared to make sacrifices to gurantee security will reap death and destruction.”
Now, please everybody, give me a minute to duck before you start firing.
Et all:
I can’t believe how long this thread has stretched.
Monotreme-Sadly, we have no FDR, and no hope of one.
MM-I think that was a great idea about the salt mine at the rail intersection. It would of course depend on the ranchers being supportive. And yes, must be done prior to pandemic.
I talked to some National Guard yesterday back from Iraq service. These people are stressed and there families are stressed. The comment about another caine churning the Gulf and the first comment was, “please, we’re too tired.” The point I’m making is if keeping the grid up and functining and is dependent on the military, these people are stretched and stretched and stretched. These five officers all said, “if there isn’t a draft soon, all they will be good for is war, not manning the home front.”
Still, I believe this type of brainstorming is good, and I’ve learned alot!
Too bad we can’t all contribute some funds to have billboards placed strategically across the country at the busiest interstates to push the message. That would generate talk radio, TV and newspaper discussion. Does anyone here work in the billboard industry?
Okieman – at 23:41
I strongly suspect that there are plans addressing this issue already. They are just not trotting them out for all of us to see.
I wish I could believe this, but I don’t. I don’t think the problem is being addressed in a realistic way. I think there are meetings scheduled to discuss the schedule for meetings to address the possibility of a 2% CFR, maybe, possibly, in the very remote future. Because this is what they are being told by the CDC and WHO. See yesterday’s news thread for more details.
Also, our Fluwikian sources suggest that many powerplants are making *no* plans to seriously to address the issue. See Jumping Jack Flash’s posts. If no-one in Energy is working on THE GRID, what makes you think anyone in Agriculture is working on Food Security? I guaranatee you, the number one bird flu concern at Agriculture is to make sure people continue to buy chicken after the first report of high-path H5N1 in birds in the US. If you were to talk to them about our planning scenario, they would say: “But the CDC says what you are talking about is impossible. 2% is the worst case scenario and even that probably won’t happen.”
I wish we could get JJF back here to comment on your plan for rolling blackouts. I agree with Bird Guano that the Grid is a national security issue. Advance planning is needed now.
farm girl – at 00:03,
We don’t disagree nearly as much as you think. And you are plenty smart enough to keep up with me :-). I am *not* a content expert on Agriculture. I probably know the least about this subject of anyone who posts on this thread. I’m just trying to figure things out.
You’re right that it took Pearl Harbor before we got our act together. But we learned from that mistake. During the Cold War, very elaborate plans and expenditures were made for a war that never happened. And the war may not have happened precisely because of our planning. I think we can sell people on this with the right leadership.
We ARE feeding the megacities right now. If you would like us to keep feeding them, then EVERYBODY has to do their job.
I agree. We should all pitch in as much as possible. I’ve got no problem with helping my local farmers, if I can be of use. I agree we may all be needed to do tasks that we weren’t trained for. Just like WWII when women who had never worked outside the home were making fighter planes in short order. What we need to do, and this is difficult, is define what is truly essential and work out plans to keep this going. My argument is that it is better to do this now than after a pandemic starts.
Monotreme, trust me, I’m honestly not all that smart. I was just going to catch a nap before I go to work and thought of something. In my rather limited educational endeavors I’ve come across two writers who have influenced my worldview. One is Hannah Arendt (a philosopher) and the other is Bruno Latour (I don’t know how to classify him), but both have written about human relationships as a sort of “web.” If you poke at the web at any old point, it sends reverbations throughout the whole structure. This is how I’ve come to envision the world.
This causes a huge problem for me when I’m trying to think of what is an “essential” worker and what is not. Just focusing on food for a moment - Who needs to show up to work to keep the food system working? Well, I imagine the captain of the oil tanker that brings oil to the U.S. is pretty essential to me. But he probably depends on a bunch of people too, so they are also essential in my chain. The person who makes the plastic that lines seed sacks or the barrels that hold herbicide are pretty important, but how about the people who formulate the plastic, the QC people who check the barrels, or the guy who drives the forklift around unloading trucks filled with raw materials? We’ll be needing them too, and they’ll be needing people in payroll and management. Will some of them need daycare for the kids? I’ll be needing the guys at the electric plants to work, and they’ll be needing me to feed them. The people who make cereal for their breakfast will also be pretty high on their list as well. Which parts of my web are unnecessary, and are they necessary for someone else’s segment?
How about hairdressers? Are they essential? To me they sure are, I’d look like Cousin It without them. The last time I cut my own hair I was probably 4 years old, and let me assure you it did not turn out well. But even if they are eventually determined to be unnecessary, wouldn’t it be reasonable to assume that they would seek out other employment if the rest of society is still functioning? I’m sure that not all hairdressers are independently wealthy, so they would have to find other work to pay their bills. Granted, required work experience may become a thing of the past, but is that really so bad? The market could take care of what you believe needs to be planned in advance. It’s amazing what you can learn when you need a paycheck.
I run a business. This business survives and prospers not because we have one big cash flow, but because we do many things that are much smaller streams. The problem I see on this thread is that you are talking past each other. All of you are correct in the tings you want to do. You just have a problem of scale at which your reality will work. We can’t turn all of the cattle to jerky, but someone somewhere does this job now. So, you get the government to place a large order for beef jerky with then and let the market do what the market does best…adjust the production without a major hand being placed on the control. The amount that gets done will be the amount that gets done. The point is to find a way to stimulate all the things that need to be set in motion. If the Feds simply put out contracts that say we want food with a shelf life of “x” months and a nutrition value of “A-K” and we will pay 25% (example) above market for it, then you don’t need to plan it all out. It will happen. We just need to get the locals on board who get the state on board who get the feds on board. Maybe the stupid people (they are children pretending to be adults) who do news now should be given a good whack on their bottoms and told to grow up and do their job instead of talking about murders all day long! That would help too.
After reading my post, let me correct: you are not all taking past each other, just some ideas are not the black and white of the logic being applied to them…that is what I mean. I sure do not mean to insult anyone here - you are all my hope.
Thread is getting too long.
Time to close it and open another one to continue the discussion.
Dude, I think you were right the first time, we are talking past each other a bit. I’m sure that no one is argumentative, we’re just struggling to understand each other and the issues involved. The issues might just be too big, or we may not have the experience required to understand them. I know I don’t. The electrical grid? I don’t even understand how electricity works.
BirdGuano, I started thinking about your (and Okieman’s) concern with the electrical grid, and I think you are right. But this makes me wonder; if the electrical grid is so darn important to our lives, why is it so shaky right now? Forget possible pandemics and every other hypothetical or possible threat, why aren’t we doing something about it now, or for that matter, why didn’t we do something about it 10 years ago? Shouldn’t we be building more power plants in the U.S. just to keep up with the increasing population? Is it a money issue? There must be some reason that something so important could be neglected, but I don’t understand what that reason is.
Okieman @ 2341 posts:
“Have contingency plans to start rolling blackouts if needed. Contingency plans to cut off (shut down) parts of the grid that threaten to pull the rest of the grid down. If an arm has gangrene that cannot be healed, it must be cut off before it kills the rest of the body. Brutal, but essential for survival.”
Okieman, you are correct. In fact, BF or not, the power grid is continuosly monitored with a tool refered to as “contingency analysis”. Because all power system facilities are subject to random failure at any time, it is essential that the power system is continuously positioned to withstand the loss of any facility without subjecting remaining facilities to exceed emergency or stability limits, which could lead to a cascading outage. This principle often requires that generating plants be brought on line out of economic merit order. It is not unusual to see generation on line that is close to a load center costing twice as much generation off line that is further from that same load.
In more extreme circumstances, the ability to immediately disconnect load is readily available so that a large portion or even the entire power system does not collapse.
farm girl – at 09:34 The whole issue here is money. Let me explain. Back in the Late 60′s, after being hit with a Hurrican a year, the people in Florida were demanding that all electrical lines be buried under ground. In many communittees that happened but the electric companys cried that it was costing to much and they could not make a profit. Net result, the right thing to do stopped and today when they have a storm electric goes out.
Private industry can not see beyond this quarter. If they do not make a bigger profit this year than last the CEO could get fired. Cut cost increase profits. Net result the system will fail and the CEO in charge at the time will get fired.
Understand, I do not disagree with reasonable profits. But doing things just for the sake of profits when you know that you are truly hurting your bussiness it wrong.
We were the largest car maker in the world, because we built quality at a fair price. We first lost the quality war by “planned obolescence” then the price war due to greed on all sides (Management and labor) and still the auto companies can not figure out what they have done wrong. The Power Grid is no different. If the chinese could figure a way to sell us electric, most of the big power companies would be out of business in a week.
Just my .02 Cents.
Farm Girl,
To help you understand, load growth in the United States has increased by at least 2% per year for the last 20 years. Enough power plants have been built to serve that load. However, little or almost no improvements have been made to the transmission system (the wires that move power from plants to users) Therefore, with a 2% load growth the extra margin of reliability in the transmission system delines by 2% per year.
Also, before electric deregulation, each utlity generated whatever power it’s customers used. The cost to generate one kilowatt for one hour (kwh) can vary from say $.02 for hydro or nuclear to $.20 for natural gas turbines. Naturally, generation is brought on line based on economic merit. If a particular region of the country has low power usage due to mild temperatures, the cost of electricity may be around $.05/kwh. If another region has high power usage due to extreme temperature or forced generation outage the cost of electricity might be $.09/kwh. These 2 regions get together and make a deal where the low cost region generates extra power and the high cost region generates less power than it uses. The excess power flows over the grid long distances from region to region.
This is the reason no investment has been in the transmission system. If you were a utility in say perhaps Indiania, would you invest in a transmission line so that the utility in Illonois could sell power to the utility in New York?
Dude, I am all for the feds just ordering up a bunch of beef jerky, MREs, bags of corn mush or whatever and letting businesses figure out how to make it happen. The question is: how do we get the Feds to take Food Security seriously?
farm girl, not everyone will be essential during a pandemic. I won’t. A hairdresser won’t. All we will be able to do is support the truly essential workers. We may need to be retrained to do that, but that’s OK. The economy of the US during WWII was very different from before or after. They didn’t have a problem identifying eseential workers. I don’t see why we couldn’t. Not to imply that it will be easy.
JJF, thanks for your input on Okieman’s idea. Could I convince the two of you to write a summary of what should be done to keep the Grid up? You could put on the Flu Wiki Opinion page for now. When we think we’ve worked everthing out and we’ve gotten comments on it from everyone with expertise in this area, we can move it to the Energy section of the Wiki. I’ll be happy to help with pmwiki if either want it.
Anon_451 and JJF, It sounds to me that it’s the Feds who are responsible for the perilous state of the Grid. This is truly a interstate and National Security issue. They need to provide the money to improve the transmission system. No-one else can really do this.
JJF who can we lobby for upgrades to the transmission system. Would this be the Secretary of Energy?
Can a series of generators owned by a municipality be configured so that they can keep the water flowing? And this would have to include the megacities too.
And how much strategic reserves of fuel would they need to accomplish this task for a month?
Monotreme,
Let me clarify. I can’t say for certain that no one in the industry is addressing the pandemic issue. I can say I am not aware of any preparations being made. I have seen nothing other than a couple memos and a presentation made on it. i.e.; a limited amount of lip service. I am not aware of one drop of water, a morsel of food, or a lump of extra coal that has been stock piled in preparation for a pandemic. I’m not saying for absolute certain preparation has not or is not being done, but if it is I’m not aware of it. I’ve heard talk of preparing for this for several months, but I don’t see any action. I do know that a committee has been formed to make a plan. wow we.
I think most utilities are patterning their pandemic flu plans after the NERC Electricity Sector Influenza Pandemic Planning, Preparation, and Response Reference Guide ftp://www.nerc.com/pub/sys/all_updl/cip/Influenza%20Pandemic%20Reference%20Guide.pdf
The overall thinking seems to be, well, if it comes and it gets bad enough, then we can quarantine.
I don’t think I’ll have a difficult time convincing Monotreme that waiting to see how bad it gets before considering quarantine is NOT the think man’s way.
What I would like to see the utilities do is what I have done, and most fluwikians have done or are doing, for themselves and their families. i.e.; obtain a stock pile of food, water, and fuel.
I want to see semi trucks stuffed with MRE’s, water, and cots at the power plants and control centers. And I want to see them right effing now. Utilities should tell employees what they are doing and why they are doing it. They should convey to employees that the possibility for quarantine lasting several months exists. I’ve seen two stinking emails on this. That’s it. I want to ride by the power plants and see MOUNTAINS of coal. They have 2 weeks worth.
I don’t see any of this. But they have a committee that’s making a plan. Whippty shit.
The 1,500 mile Alaska highway was built in 8 months during WWII. It takes a committee nowadays 8 months to make a GD “plan”, not to mention enact the plan. Sorry for getting on a rant.
The supplies should include enough for the workers families. I will not, and I believe most other workers will not, be willing to leave my family alone to defend themselves against possible anarchy. Sorry folks, but my loyalty is to my little girls and DW.
I, personally, would much rather ride out a multi month pandemic at a secure power facility than my house. Or any house. Even the White House. Many of the control centers in use today were constructed during the cold war and, believe me, are very very stout and secure. Nuclear power plants are constructed to with stand the direct impact of a 747. What better place could one be in a pandemic?
If I were a PTB, I would ask for volunteers ready and willing to report to a quarantined work place at a moments notice. I’m thinking maximum 2 hours from notification to get family and report to work, for an indefinite amount of time. I have no idea what percentage of the work force would be willing to do that. These guys gripe if they get relieved 15 minutes late. I can’t imagine what they would do if they got stuck at work for 6 months. I’d be happy to be stuck there.
However, when I place myself in TPTB’s shoes, I contemplate how idiotic I’ll look if this never happens, and the unprecedented controversy and anxiety a plan like this will create in the work force. The HR issues alone would likely scare most executives from even thinking about a pandemic. All for something that may or may not occur.
Utility P’sTB aren’t stupid. My guess is they are thinking exactly what I’m saying, that is quarantine at first sign of H2H. An executive contemplating ordering his company pre pandemic to spend vast amount of $$$ on preparing, and causing an up roar in the work force, likely has visions of the unemployment line. I therefore believe it will take a government or executive directive to mandate utilities to prepare for lock down at first sign of H2H. What politician who has any aspiration of getting re-elected is going to do that?
I have posted that the power industry is dependent on many vendors to operate. Replacement parts, railroad, coal mining, telephone communications, internet etc. Plants will go off line and stay off line for lack of a part, and eventually, over time, all plants will be down if needed repair parts cannot be obtained. As more plants become disabled more load will have to be disconnected. The good news is that critical load (water, sewage, food distrution etc) only amounts to maybe 1% of present day generating capacity (that’s a guess).
If my plan (lock down no shit quarantine at first sign of H2H) were implemented, I’d give critical infrastructure a 99% chance of remaining with power.
If the present plan (gawk at the situation with our mouth open and teeth sticking out) remains, I suggest you do what I’ve done. Prepare what you can.
Medical Maven – at 10:33
Can a series of generators owned by a municipality be configured so that they can keep the water flowing? And this would have to include the megacities too.
And how much strategic reserves of fuel would they need to accomplish this task for a month?
For a suburb or rural area this may be feasible IF they only use local groundwater sources.
For a mega-city like Los Angeles this would be impossible because the power demands are not local.
Some of the water sources are 400 miles distant.
Same for San Francisco and the 9 county San Francisco Bay Area served by the Hetch Hetchy water system near Yosemite National Park. About 150 miles distant.
ALL rely on massive amounts of electricity to power pumps over a very wide geographical area. More than municipal generators can provide.
Here is a good website with background on the water needs of ONE city in Los Angeles County, of only 30K people: http://tinyurl.com/jrdd3
“about 4,226,112 gallons of water are used daily by the residents of Temple City.”
“water is imported from the Colorado River, the Owens Valley, and northern California by an aqueduct system.”
“As expected for any suburb of Los Angeles, the amount of water consumed exceeds the amount of annual rainfall. “
BirdGuano – at 10:54 ,
This is why the Romans, being smarter than us, built their aquaduct system such that gravity, not electric power, caused water to flow.
Monotreme – at 10:22
Could I convince the two of you to write a summary of what should be done to keep the Grid up? You could put on the Flu Wiki Opinion page for now.
Monotreme,
I don’t know what else I can say other than what Ive already said: Quarantine power facilities a first sign of H2H. Then evaluate if quarantine is actually needed. It wasn’t needed during the last two pandemics.
JJF, your rant at – at 10:47 would make a terrific Opinion piece. It’s both impassioned and informative. Would you add it to the Opinion page or allow me to do so (indicating that you are the author of course)?
I don’t know how to add to opinion page. Feel free to do so.
JJF here it is. Thanks for letting me put it up. Let me know if you want to edit it.
Okay, I’ve been reading all this with interest, so now here I am with even more questions. I’m assuming from the above posts that keeping the grid up and running will probably take something more than just having people to monitor the system. Coal will need to be brought in, wires and other parts need replacement or repair, etc. Do the power companies who make our electricity have the space available to store a year’s worth of necessary items, or will storage limitations mean that more will have to be brought in regularly? Do they have the space to house however many employees are necessary? Would additional facilities have to be built to do all this, or more land purchased, or are we good to go but for the actual products to be stored?
I’m beginning to believe that we’ve screwed ourselves into a corner with JIT production practices. How can we possibly overcome today’s business philosophy with talk of a hypothetical pandemic? We can talk about 50% CFRs until we’re blue in the face, but until people start dying, will anyone with the power to do something listen? What is the incentive to change? Obviously it’s not saving money, because in all of our discussions, everything comes back to spending more of it. Plus there is the added fear that a pandemic WON’T happen and politicians and CEO-types will be embarassed about their planning activities. Is this a fairly accurate assessment, or am I missing something (a strong humanitarian drive?) that will motivate change?
Closed and continued here.
Farm Girl — The largest well run corporations have strategic planning departments at high levels that actually are charged with planning ‘what if’ scenarios in order to understand their supply and market situations in the event of any number of given catastophes.
The best corporate leaders are highly competitive people who understand that their job, in all circumstances, is to return value to their stockholders; a great way to do that is to survive catastrophes and remain in business and ‘take over’ the markets of less savvy companies. (Of course, there are some exceptions — crony management has been a problem in some companies, but hopefully the great ones will survive).
I worked for a company that had large streams of product and parts coming from a variety of global suppliers via ocean and air. One project I had involved working with Strategic Planning to identify all current sources and routes of product and material, and design models of financial impacts of certain countries’ plants, warehouses, distribution networks and so forth being disturbed or shut down by any number of problems — hurricanes, earthquakes, civil unrest, transportation strikes, revolutions, any number of situations. Plans were in place, and insurance coverage was obtained, to cover any number of eventualities. Budgets of all expected shut down and start up costs (from salary variations to local wages to tax advantage/cost implicatons were considered, and budgets were actually prepared to be used in planning for possible reconfigurations of production/supplies/markets.
The strategic planners worked with Mega-sized insurance and re-insurance companies and the financial planning advisors of our multinational CPA firm to set up plans that would be instituted by management in any number of eventualities in order to continue business at a pretty high level.
I’m pretty sure that that is happening right now; Tom DVM noted elsewhere that he was aware a large accounting firm was involved with planning, so it no doubt will filter down to large companies (hopefully pretty quickly). No doubt planning software packages are being sold, and consultants are offering services right now, so that businesses can assess their ‘exposure’ to bird flu losses.
One thing in business is that if one company does something, they all tend to follow the pack in order not to be thought lacking. It’s not humanitarian interest so much, but the competitive drive to be tops in earnings and market share. What better way than to be one of the few after a catastrophe?