From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Community Preps for the Worst Case Scenario VI

27 August 2006

Monotreme – at 15:21

Part I Part II Part III Part IV Part V

Monotreme – at 15:23

farm girl – at 15:00

Okay, I’ve been reading all this with interest, so now here I am with even more questions. I’m assuming from the above posts that keeping the grid up and running will probably take something more than just having people to monitor the system. Coal will need to be brought in, wires and other parts need replacement or repair, etc. Do the power companies who make our electricity have the space available to store a year’s worth of necessary items, or will storage limitations mean that more will have to be brought in regularly? Do they have the space to house however many employees are necessary? Would additional facilities have to be built to do all this, or more land purchased, or are we good to go but for the actual products to be stored?

I’m beginning to believe that we’ve screwed ourselves into a corner with JIT production practices. How can we possibly overcome today’s business philosophy with talk of a hypothetical pandemic? We can talk about 50% CFRs until we’re blue in the face, but until people start dying, will anyone with the power to do something listen? What is the incentive to change? Obviously it’s not saving money, because in all of our discussions, everything comes back to spending more of it. Plus there is the added fear that a pandemic WON’T happen and politicians and CEO-types will be embarassed about their planning activities. Is this a fairly accurate assessment, or am I missing something (a strong humanitarian drive?) that will motivate change?

Monotreme – at 15:26

farm girl, JJF and Okieman can answer your questions about what else is needed to keep the Grid up, but remember we will only need to do this for a year or two.

The WHO and the CDC are shirking their responsibility. They know, or should know, that a 2% CFR is not the worst case scenario. If they said this loudly, this would provide cover for the politicians to allocate the necessary resources.

Monotreme – at 20:12

From Part V

heddiecalifornia – at 15:34

Farm Girl — The largest well run corporations have strategic planning departments at high levels that actually are charged with planning ‘what if’ scenarios in order to understand their supply and market situations in the event of any number of given catastophes.

The best corporate leaders are highly competitive people who understand that their job, in all circumstances, is to return value to their stockholders; a great way to do that is to survive catastrophes and remain in business and ‘take over’ the markets of less savvy companies. (Of course, there are some exceptions — crony management has been a problem in some companies, but hopefully the great ones will survive).

I worked for a company that had large streams of product and parts coming from a variety of global suppliers via ocean and air. One project I had involved working with Strategic Planning to identify all current sources and routes of product and material, and design models of financial impacts of certain countries’ plants, warehouses, distribution networks and so forth being disturbed or shut down by any number of problems — hurricanes, earthquakes, civil unrest, transportation strikes, revolutions, any number of situations. Plans were in place, and insurance coverage was obtained, to cover any number of eventualities. Budgets of all expected shut down and start up costs (from salary variations to local wages to tax advantage/cost implicatons were considered, and budgets were actually prepared to be used in planning for possible reconfigurations of production/supplies/markets.

The strategic planners worked with Mega-sized insurance and re-insurance companies and the financial planning advisors of our multinational CPA firm to set up plans that would be instituted by management in any number of eventualities in order to continue business at a pretty high level.

I’m pretty sure that that is happening right now; Tom DVM noted elsewhere that he was aware a large accounting firm was involved with planning, so it no doubt will filter down to large companies (hopefully pretty quickly). No doubt planning software packages are being sold, and consultants are offering services right now, so that businesses can assess their ‘exposure’ to bird flu losses.

One thing in business is that if one company does something, they all tend to follow the pack in order not to be thought lacking. It’s not humanitarian interest so much, but the competitive drive to be tops in earnings and market share. What better way than to be one of the few after a catastrophe?

Okieman – at 22:05

Monotreme – at 15:26

Just for clarification, my work experience and education is environmental science (water quality) and agriculture. I am not qualified to say any more than what I have already stated earlier in the thread concerning the electric grid. I have a good friend in Kansas that works at a municipal electric plant with substantial generation capability so I have a place to go with questions, but that is about it.

Public drinking water and agriculture issues, I know enough to speak out. Electric generation and transfer, no. JJF is the man for that. I just wish he had more cheerful news to give us.

Medical Maven – at 22:24

My prediction (short of absolute disaster): We will get by with a little preparation (by default), a little ingenuity (by necessity), and a LOT of luck (by God’s grace).

Monotreme – at 22:53

Okieman – at 22:05,

What makes this difficult is that everything is interrelated. Science, international politics, national politics, engineering, human psychology; all these things influence our level of preparedness. This why I think a multipronged approach is best.

Medical Maven, I think some of us will get by, but not all of us. I guess all we can do is try to save as many as we can.

Science Teacher – at 23:03

Monotreme, keep up the good work. Your work is already saving lives.

28 August 2006

Monotreme – at 08:23

Thanks, Science Teacher.

btw, I really like your Red Ribbon Pandemic Awareness Campaign is a great idea. Awareness of the problem is the first step in getting people to work on solutions.

Petticoat Junction – at 10:22

I’m not sure if this would fit better here with all the talk of being aware of farm resources or in the thread that discussed possible gov’t seizure of private resources (esp food)…or perhaps both…but I just heard this on NPR and thought it was interesting.

Apparently the gov’t is putting a lot of time and money into creating a computerized map that shows the location of every single farm in the US (and what crops the farmer promised to grow/is growing). They are doing it via overhead survelliance. It’s ostensibly to track subsidies, but it sure seems like it would have a more practical use in the light of our current discussions.

Gov’t Crop Cops

banshee – at 11:45

I was speaking with a gentleman yesterday from the Upper Midwest yesterday. The topic was power generation. Apparently, the city he is from generates most of its electricity from coal. At the present time, their coal deliveries are JIT. However, he said that within the next month or so they will begin to stockpile coal for the winter. Why? Most of the coal is delivered by ship via the Great Lakes and some of the important waterways have a tendency to freeze over thus making coal deliveries spotty. Thus, they stockpile certain things like coal as well as road salt for the winter. I have not been able to verify this info independently. However, if a panflu were to strike in the winter, perhaps some areas would have the resources available to generate power locally - just by pure dumb luck.

Ange D – at 11:47

Petticoat Junction – at 10:22-

all I can say is “what is the world coming to . . .” I imagine this program has cost us millions of dollars. Farmers are some of the most honest and hard-working people there are out there.

To me, it amounts to government spy programs. Why don’t they utilize those financial resources to go after drug dealers or shore up the levees in New Orleans?

Or even better, put that money into ensuring power, food, water and meds in a pandemic?

Back to coffee pot for sustenance . . . .

Petticoat Junction – at 11:54

Ange D – at 11:47 …To me, it amounts to government spy programs.

Oh, that’s exactly what it is, no doubt.

….Or even better, put that money into ensuring power, food, water and meds in a pandemic?

I have a feeling that may be exactly what they are doing (ensuring food, on a nat’l level)

farm girl – at 12:14

Banshee - If you want to remind me, I can drive by the coal-fired plant in my area sometime next month. I don’t know if they stockpile it there or not, but I know that all winter long trains hauling coal are a regular sight up there. I always thought it came from somewhere down south or out west, not through Lake Superior, but if I’m wrong it wouldn’t be the first time.

I can verify that my state (Minnesota) stockpiles huge quantities of road salt though.

Dennis in Colorado – at 12:26

RE: Crop Cops story on NPR:

I oppose any “spying” on any regular citizen, but I don’t see the above program in that light. It is simply using technology to replace (or enhance) the same sort of efforts that are made by individuals involved in USDA’s insurance and subsidy programs. Example: as a Certified Loss Adjuster in the crop insurance industry, it was my responsibility to check the accuracy of statements made by insured growers (all crop insurance is re-insured by USDA, so all programs are under federal aegis). If a grower submitted a claim for “prevented planting” in his wheat or dry beans field, it was my job to check his seed receipts to see that he had purchased sufficient seed to plant the acreage that he claimed was lost due to weather-related prevented planting. I conducted “growing season inspections” to assure that a normal bloom of peach or apple blossoms was present before the grower submitted a claim for frost damage. I pulled archived Ag Extension temperature records to verify that a frost in the grower’s area had, indeed, taken place.

These aerial inspections are just another tool in that armamentarium. To the extent that they will only be used by the USDA in its various insurance and subsidy programs is not of concern to me. I know some growers who refuse to participate in crop insurance programs because of the loss of privacy they must endure in order to participate. Knowing that aerial inspections are now being used may well cause additional farmers to decline insurance and/or subsidies. In addition to being (generally) honest, farmers tend to be (generally) people who value their privacy.

Certainly, such aerial records could be used for purposes other than insurance and subsidies. That is equally true of the records I generated as a loss adjustor. The only difference I see is that some of these aerial records will be compiled for individuals who choose not to participate in federal crop programs, but will have images stored of their farms anyway.

BirdGuanoat 19:25

We’re straying a bit off topic aren’t we ??

Monotreme – at 21:18

Just for the record, I don’t think the government has any plans to go after our preps or farmers crops. I don’t think they have any plans at all regarding food during a pandemic.

Monotreme – at 21:30

Perhaps we have exhausted Food and the Grid.

Maybe now it’s time to move on to Transportation and Security.

There’s an interesting thread over at Current Events called Bird Flu = New Orleans. In the first post, Temp Man indicates that the director of the Port of New Orleans has been told nothing about planning for pandemic flu.

“It’s not on our radar screen. Should it be?” He new only what he had picked up in the popular press. They’ve done nothing. No meetings, no brainstorming, no discussions, period. No gentle directions from FEMA (who is up their butts every day), no suggestions from Washington, or the Coast Guard. Granted, they have been a little preoccupied for the last 12 months, but I at least hoped it had been a discussion point. The Mississippi is a major transportation corridor for food outgo and in-go for the US. Not having a plan to keep it going does not bode well for us.

OK, so we have to lobby the Department of Transportation to get all the ports up to speed? Our work is never done. Sigh.

Looks like the FAA has started to prepare: Technical Center Pandemic Influenza Preparations.

There are a number of webpages at the DOT site indicating that meetings are being held. Pity they haven’t thought to invite the Directors of the Ports.

Bronco Bill – at 22:04

Monotreme – at 21:30 --- Another place to lobby is USCBP. They control all ports of entry into and out of the US. Once shipments clear customs at the ports, they’re handed off to USDOT.

US Customs and Border Protection

This is their website regarding Avian Influenza: Bird Flu

I especially found this un-nerving as it portends that entire communities will change after a panflu outbreak:
→ Recovery: Coordination of federal efforts to restore services and rebuild communities after an outbreak of influenza

in the U.S. This will include a coherent set of actions and security measures to restore essential/critical services
and normal operations within government.
Bronco Bill – at 22:07

Sorry---the link to US Customs and Border Protection should be this one CBP Homepage

Monotreme – at 22:55

Thanks BB, I’ll take a look at it.

amt – at 23:13

On the topic of transportation, just a little FYI, many types of traffic signals must be manually reset after a power outage. They don’t typically have a back-up power source. So if the electricity cycles on and off, it throws the signals into confusion in relation to each other (the offset), and causes traffic delays. (After the blackout in 2003, there were many a signal timing technician/engineers out resetting the signals in urban areas.) Not that there would be massive traffic, but urban transportation systems are dependant on electricity to properly function.

amt – at 23:23

Oh yes, and its good to lobby states to require gasoline stations to have the wiring necessary to power from generators (or at least the diesel pumps). Nothing like not being able to pump fuel for three states.

I was quizzing a facilities manager for nursing homes, and while they have big ol’ generators, they won’t work without diesel shipments, and they can’t keep large amounts of fuel on-site. I imagine there are hospitals in the same boat, so diesel is important for both trucking and generators.

29 August 2006

Ange D – at 00:14

Here is the official opinion on raw milk and dairy products containing raw milk. The disease I was thinking of was encephalitis from drinking raw milk.

“Unpasteurized milk and dairy products may contain harmful pathogens and are not safe to eat, drink, or use in making foods, according to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA).”

For more information, see the FDA website at http://www.cfsan.fda.gov/~dms/fttmilk DOT html and http://www.fda.gov/fdac/features/2004/504_milk DOT html

(take out the DOT and put in the period instead. I have not mastered tiny url yet and am in a hurry to get the latest updates read)

Monotreme – at 09:05

Here some information on the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) usually refers to an emergency petroleum store maintained by the United States Department of Energy, although in recent years several other countries have created their own SPR: See global strategic petroleum reserves. The US SPR is either the largest or second largest emergency supply in the world with the current capacity to hold up to 727 million barrels (116 million m³) of crude oil. According to the Department of Energy, as of August 4, 2006, the current inventory is 687.8 million barrels (273.6 million barrels of Sweet crude oil and 414.3 million barrels of Sour crude oil. The current inventory is available on the SPR’s website. According to the World Factbook, the United States consumes about 20 million barrels of oil a day; therefore, at maximum capacity, the SPR holds the equivalent of about 36 days of normal consumption.

The reserve is stored at four sites on the Gulf of Mexico, each located near a major center of petrochemical refining and processing. Each site contains a number of artificial caverns created in salt domes below the surface.

I would imagine during a severe pandemic that very few cars would be using fuel. Most businesses would be shut down. It seems to me that there might be enough in the strategic petroleum stockpile to operate farm machinery and provide fuel for generators.

amt – at 13:26

As we think about Ports, and how they operate - we should keep in mind that many of the containers go straight onto the rails without being unpacked. Perhaps the railroads deserve a little attention too.

Fortunately, rail is a fuel and labor efficient means of freight transportation (which is also commonly diesel powered). The big problems seems to be that skilled rail workers are limited and that system relies on electricity.

Currently, the signals, and other control equipment on the rails are electronic. (Not to mention the Rail Road crossing gates, etc.) I have no idea how their back-up systems work. There are probably ways to resort to pre-electronic ways of signaling, etc, but from what I understand the new systems greatly enhance the efficiency of rail freight. I am not sure it would be easy to go backwards.

The only thing I found regarding pandemic flu and the rails was this press release last November.

And this except from a White House Document.

“Rail: Any movement in the United States by rail carrier (including commuter rail but excluding urban rapid transit not connected to the general system of rail transportation) may be stopped, redirected, or limited by the authority of the Surface Transportation Board (STB) or the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA), or both, irrespective of the commodity involved. FRA may issue an emergency order imposing any restrictions or prohibitions necessary to abate what FRA determines is an emergency situation involving a hazard of death or personal injury caused by unsafe conditions or practices. “

I’m not in the industry, so I would bet (hope) that they have been doing some more serious contingency planning than this.

31 August 2006

Monotreme – at 21:06

bump for lugon’s attention

cactus – at 23:08

Am I missing the point?

“The US SPR is either the largest or second largest emergency supply in the world with the current capacity to hold up to 727 million barrels (116 million m³) of crude oil. “

Crude oil. Doesn`t that mean that the refineries need to have power to make that reserve into something we can use ?

Monotreme – at 23:49

cactus – at 23:08

Crude oil. Doesn`t that mean that the refineries need to have power to make that reserve into something we can use ?

You are correct. The refineries would have to be operational to produce usable petroleum products.

01 September 2006

cactus – at 00:02

Just keeps getting better, doesn`t it ? ;-P

Time to hit the stores,again.

Monotreme – at 00:07

As we have concluded many times, for many issues, the GRID must stay up, no matter what.

NJ. Preppie – at 15:05

From the recent CIDRAP Pandemic Overview

“Even with the best planning efforts, there is no way to adequately prepare for a pandemic given the currently available resources.

If the next pandemic strain is highly virulent (such as the 1918 strain) the global death toll could be dramatic. The current plans generally do not address the social, political, or economic issues that would likely be associated with an ongoing influenza pandemic. It is very possible that substantial disruption of basic services (such as healthcare, food, clothing, provision of utilities [eg, water, electricity], and transportation) will occur. Furthermore, international trade will likely be impacted, which could have serious global economic and societal consequences.”

03 September 2006

BUMP – at 06:58

05 September 2006

bump – at 00:50

bump

17 September 2006

Nightowl – at 00:49

ANON-YYZ -

I thought this thread would be a good place to continue the discussion we barely got into. Preceding discussions on this thread are so valuable, and I think it could fit in, though I’m going to do a topic change and go back to food since the thread has not been posted on for a couple weeks. I hope that is okay.

You and I had our lightbulbs going off in response to each other’s comments on getting a food drive going to help prep citizens with low incomes. I was looking at a food drive very narrowly and how to get that started, and you were seeing the big picture.

To quote you: I think prep drive should start with the soup kitchen i.e. bottom-up, not top-down . Every city got some activists, volunteers, people with good hearts. If they realize what this pandemic threat really is, then they will make a lot of noise out there e.g. start thanksgiving food drive earlier, asking for donation of non-perishables etc. If they start prepping, it will get the attention of people with more resources i.e. the donors.

I am interested in hearing about your further views on this, as well as the other things you mentioned about a food drive having a ripple effect on other first responders. Your comments have really got me thinking, too. Thank you.

ANON-YYZ – at 01:58

Nightowl – at 00:49

Thank you.

TPTB knows the pandemic threat is real, but cannot guarantee if and when it would happen. Therefore it is hard to commit real resources to prepare without unwanted side effects, and to deal with objections from special interest groups such as businesses that may become affected e.g. tourism and government services that need more funding e.g. cancer research, welfare services etc. Anyone can attack this as fear mongering and bring attention to their cause.

When a pandemic hits, it doesn’t hit TPTB directly in Capital City, it hits the local town, county, municipal government.

If we start from the lowest common denonminator of the humanity scale, we would find the under privileged and food bank users will also be hit by the pandemic, and in many ways harder than the rest of society. If you talk about how a pandemic might make life even more unbearable than it is now for the poor, it would be much harder for special interest groups to object and bring forward their pet peeves. It is also easier to find local politician to support a food drive for one city than national politician to support a programme for an entire nation.

Yesterday, there was news from Toronto that a councillor started speaking out about how slow the preparation was. If this call came from the federal level, there would have been political repercussions.

I think it is customary for fire fighters, paramedics, police to support food drives for the poor. If they support a panflu food drive, it is politically very hard for special interest groups to object. During a pandemic, the first responders will be at high risks. They would have a desire to help the community stay less infected. Once the first responders support such a programme, the rest of the community would see a pandemic as a legitimate threat, not fear mongering. Hopefully, the Mayor will move over to the good side to support this (who wouldn’t want to support a good cause?) knowing that political opponents cannot attack such a programme.

People with more resources will take notice and would want to ‘out-prepare’ the homeless. It would be ‘uncool’ not to prepare. The tide would have changed.

Nightowl – at 02:38

ANON-YYZ at 01:58 - You have really got my lightbulb shining brightly. My view of just trying to motivate food pantry workers was just too narrow. You are brilliant. I can see how this could tie in with the red ribbon campaign, too.

My uncle was a firefighter. Really big heart. I think that I could take the ribbons and cards to the fire houses. I know some things about fire fighting, and I am comfortable talking with firefighters. I could take info specific for them. I could tell them I will check back, and that I would like their views about sponsoring a food drive after they have had a chance to check out the sites. If I could get them on board, then I could go to the food pantry workers and from there to corporations all while dropping off red ribbon campaign info. What do you think about this?

I just really see your point about the ripple effect and the bottom-up approach. In fact, it is one of the most inspiring ideas I have seen, and I really see a tie-in to the ohter idea that is so inspiring to me, Science Teacher’s Red Ribbon Campaign. I think I will be going around to the police department, too. So, I’ll look forward to hearing what you think.

Nightowl – at 03:03

ANON-YYZ - Are you thinking about launching this in your community, too?

Nightowl – at 03:32

ANON-YYZ - I really wish I could sit down and have a conversation with you. Your analysis of the political situation is just so astute. My posts above are focused on the practical points of your analysis, but your theoretical points about how to get everyone else on board just made so many pieces of the puzzle fit together. You are so right. How can anyone object to a food drive, and in the process, everyone gets informed. The first responders are key, as you pointed out. Then how can everyone ignore the first responders and so up the ladder. I truly understand what you are saying about your theoretical and practical analysis of a bottom-up approach. It is such a big idea, and you wrote it so coherently. Profoundly insightful. Sorry about the three posts - thoughts are just flying about your analysis.

Nightowl – at 05:00

Monotreme -

The above discussion between ANON-YYZ and myself reflect another prong of your “multiprong” strategy. No one prong (approach) should be seen as best or pursued thinking other approaches won’t work or are not important. As you do, I believe we need many approaches going on at the same time: top-down and bottom-up. Many people here at Flu Wiki are working at the grassroots level. ANON-YYZ has seen a way to perhaps make things happen in a broad, community-wide way and perhaps faster way than group by group because, as ANON-YYZ has pointed out, it has the potential to get so many people on board in a non-threatening way.

Is it okay that we are on this thread, or should we be somewhere else? Thanks.

BUMP – at 06:42

Great comments!

If you do a search for food banks it will bring up a list of sites for individual states with links and phone numbers to the food bank net works. Perhaps we could start by asking them through Email or phonecall what their plans are for a pandemic. I called the Regional Food Bank closest to where I live about a month ago. I asked about their pandemic plan and the person was really surprised by the question. His reply was “ we don’t have a specific plan, we’ll just do what the state and county tell us to do..” Public awareness is soo low!

Science Teacher – at 06:57

Sorry, that was me at 6:42.

ST

Nightowl – at 08:36

Wow, Science Teacher. Thanks. Great resource because our towns just sort of merge into one big metro area. You have just made it easy to find the information.

Average Concerned Mom – at 09:52

Night Owl — you guys should be on a new thread in my opinion, just so this awesome idea doesn’t get missed.

Average Concerned Mom – at 09:56

I’ll tell you, this idea ties in with my realization a few days ago that babies who are dependent on infant formula (including statistically a greater number of babies low-income/working moms who do not or cannot breastfeed)will be at a very serious risk if the supply chain is interrupted in any way. Formula cannot be improvised in a way that, say, corn flakes can be substituted with oatmeal for older children.

The poorest people cannot easily afford formula and food for their children in the best of times and are very unlikely to be able to afford to stockpile food.

ANON-YYZ – at 10:37

Nightowl – at 03:03

I am quite stretched for time and I won’t be able to start a programme like this. Some one may already have the contacts with the volunteer organizations and likely will achieve more than I would.

During a pandemic, some children may be orphaned, others who live paycheck to paycheck may end up at the food bank because of unemployment, or the single bread earner gets sick etc etc. The point is there will be greater demand. If one were to ask the donors to increase their donation this year by 10% of non-perishables and some cash for water, water filters, sanitation supplies etc, and more if the donors can afford, which will be set aside for pandemic relief, then it will mitigate some of the problems.

Another organization is the Red Cross, which usually starts a drive after a disaster. During a pandemic, a fund raising drive would be quite meaningless. The phones may not work, postal service may not work, and there may not be supplies available to purchase. It may be approapriate (as a a separate or follow-on project) for the Red Cross to start a fund raising campaign with the promise that the money will be used to actually stock pile pandemic supplies.

Please feel free to start a new thread and copy anything you need. Thank you.

Bird Guano – at 12:07

The Red Cross is a HUGE fan of Just In Time.

They no longer accept donations of goods or clothing after disasters, preferring cash, and then purchasing what they need in the open market.

In a pandemic there won’t BE anything to purchase after the disaster in the open market, and very few that will have cash to give or a method to give it.

Do NOT count on NGO relief agencies.

History Lover – at 13:09

Nightowl & Anon-YYZ - I was so thrilled to read your comments today. A few weeks ago, I tried to bring up the idea of prep donations for low income people, and unfortunately the idea degenerated into a discussion/condemnation of people for being poor. Since then I have seen a change in attitude, and more people are supporting the idea that we can’t just help ourselves, we must help our community (big kudos to Science Teacher and Awareness Campaign). I wonder if Public Service Announcements (sorry if it’s already been mentioned) would be a good resource both to teach people to prep and also to encourage prep donations. Perhaps people could start with their local public radio and television stations. They are usually more open-minded about controversial/eclectic topics.

Monotreme – at 18:31

Nightowl and ANON-YYZ, fantastic discussion!

These are just the sort of positive planning and activism I hoped would be sparked by this thread. Please continue. I couldn’t be more happy as to how the discussion of community preps is going.

Both of you are brilliant!

Science Teacher – at 19:01

Here’s an idea. What about speaking with your local food banks and ask them to set aside an area of their warehouse just for pandemic preps? Donations can be placed in labeled boxes in grocery stores along with pandemic information. We can teach the people who donate as well. (and of course hang a red ribbon on the box : ) )

18 September 2006

Local Pandemic Food Drive/Bottom-Up Planning – at 22:38

For those reading from the bottom up, the main thrust of the current discussion begins with ANON-YYZ at 01:58 (17 September). Please add your thoughts.

An excellent thread started by Average Concerned Mom about infant formula needs (see her post at 09:56) is here

Monotreme, thanks. Science Teacher, History Lover - great ideas. Average Concerned Mom - I’m following your thread on Infant Formula. Well done! Excellent points being made. Stay in touch as I’m sure you have more thoughts. Bird Guano - You are right, things have to happen before the pandemic hits.

ANON-YYZ, keep those ideas coming. Ideas save lives because someone will translate them to action. Also appreciate the points you are making. Thanks again.

Nightowl

22 September 2006

Gary Near Death Valley – at 22:31

Dont know if this is the place or not, but just orderd a new book out called “The Last Town On Earth’. The Last Town on Earth centers on the inhabitants of a small logging town in Washington and what happens when they take drastic measures (quarantine) to try and protect themselves from the virulent and deadly flu epidemic of 1918. When a deserting WWI soldier demands sanctuary, events are set in motion that change the town forever.

Might get some ideas from the book.

Monotreme – at 22:41

Here’s a powerpoint I just came accross on the Florida summit site: Pandemic Flu Preparedness – The DHS Preparedness Role.

It covers alot of the critical infrastructure issues we have been discussing.

Dude – at 23:19

I would say that it glosses over a lot of the stuff we have been discussing…I need details. I still believe that the economy will shut down during a pandemic. Certainly, if you sell cosmetics at the Walymart, you can safely say that the GDP will go down with all nonessential service workers such as yourself not reporting for work, but I would rather have these people alive. You can bill me for the GDP. Until some vaccine is available I am not going to go out. I plan on nothing being available from the infrastructure. That is the only safe assumption to make. If there is we will all do better for some period of time. I think the real case situation will be interrupted services at any time for any length of time and this will vary by area.

Monotreme – at 23:29

Dude – at 23:19

I wish we had details too. I’m afraid we don’t have them because they don’t exist. I wish DOE would get cracking on the GRID. AFAIK, they’ve done nothing significant to ensure that essential workers and their families are protected and supplied within the Plants during a severe pandemic.

If the GRID holds, I think at least some communities will survive, even with a very severe pandemic.

Ange D – at 23:49

In a disaster, if the grid fails, most of the food that is consumed by people in need is refrigerated. Therefore, within 24 hours, most people will have lost all of their food to spoilage. Those in need often find that there is no money to stockpile. Grid failures often cause food banks to close because there is no electricity to operate in the buildings. Most food pantries or food closets do not carry surplus and do not have extensive storage. Usually, in times of need or disaster, it is the churches who rally round and individuals are called by love to serve God by helping others. The largest population who might help you with preparing for a worst case scenario would be those who are part of church families. They are often the ones who fund local food banks and pantries and keep them stocked in disasters.

That being said. Food collections now are needed to feed families in need. Food that could be used should not just sit in pantries and food banks. That is more of a hoarding behavior, especially when there is a need now for it to be used.

Communities should have someone who can network with the churches to promote a plan and an organized means of acquiring food and storing it in the event of a disaster. Those people should be responsible for rotating the food and making sure it is available if the need should arise.

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Page last modified on August 07, 2007, at 12:53 PM