I attended a community information night on pandemic influenza tonight. The speakers ranged from very good to rather awful. What heartened me the most was our county public health official who says she is working to have it be the policy that schools throughout Washington state will close when (and if) there is a single confirmed case of pandemic influenza.
This is not the official policy yet, but I think it is an excellent one. We see so many negative postings about TPTB and yet here is another one who is reading the tea leaves carefully and planning appropriately.
Hurrah - the message is getting through. Closing ‘places of public gathering’ is logical - it won’t stop the spread completely but if it gives a few people a chance of not getting (severely) infected then it has to be good for the community ongoing.
Good for your county public health official - I hope she gets the message heard up and down.
That is gold.
Fantastic news….I hope it spreads and of course it will.
What a change in attitude-finally a big, big win for logic and common sense.
I’m gonna go and have myself one of those cola drinks that Britney prefers!
(If no one has heard of Washington State, they soon will. This decison will put ‘em on the map I tells ya)
“I wanna be like Washington State.”
Washington State-with Seattle leading seems to be doing the most in terms of flu info/planning. I wish other states would pay attention…..
Olymom,
If you live near Seattle, maybe you can consider going to the Public Engagement Project On Community Control Measures. It’s tomorrow, though, so I don’t know if that is enough notice. :-)
I’m sure they can do with your help or support.
I think what we need to do in KY as soon as we hear of any pan-flu, is to announce U.K. and U of L will play each other in a basketball tournament-but there will be no stadium tickets, you can only watch it on tv. That would close all the schools-and most everything else.
Olymom – at 01:03 …. county public health official who says she is working to have it be the policy that schools throughout Washington state will close when (and if) there is a single confirmed case of pandemic influenza….
Did she specify what she meant by single confirmed case of pandemic influenza?
in the world? in the US? in Washington?
anon_22 and others -
To go the forum in Seattle tomorrow, unfortunately you must be a resident of King County. It would be great if others could come!
They are letting me in and I live in a county north of ‘em. I even told the truth on the application.
:-D
anon_22 -
I want to go over what the experts are stating as to the latest a TLC program could be instituted.
In Neil Ferguson’s presentaion at IOM, he stated that to achieve a low (total) local attack rate of <4%, the TLC must be implemented (and complied with) before the local attack rate reaches 1%.
So does that mean for a city of 500,000, for the attack rate to end up <4%, the TLC must start before the attack rate reaches 5,000 (1% of 500,000)? This does seem awfully late to wait for 5,000 people to come down with symptoms (and be diagnosed). But this would then mean that if TLC started (in a city of 500,000) before 5,000 people became ill with H5N1, then the total number to become ill would not exceed 20,000 (4% of 500,000). I completely understand that the TLC would have to be quickly put in place, and adhered to fairly well.
I keep reading 1% used as the standard, so that the TLC must start before that attack rate. However, I believe I have also read 3%, which seems way too high.
Also, are there any others who suggest that a lower AR must/should be used to start the TLC. Obvioulsy, this would be better, but do any others actually state that?
Sorry if you have gone over this completely, but I want to nail this concept down for the forum tomorrow. I personally would vote for one person to be diagnosed with H5N1 to start the TLC, but I have to use what the experts have been stating.
anonymous -
I bet that is because they (at least at first) did not have many signing up. See you there!
G, Olymom,
I truly hope Washington State can achieve that goal of school closings. It IS quite a progressive state in many areas.
But hoping is not doing. I am sure there will be many obstacles in the way. Perhaps with a show of informed supporters as above, change can occur. And I agree that a momentum to have schools close early will encourage others to do so also. Being armed with anon’s data is a significant asset.
Good luck, flu warriors!
anon_22 -
I reposted my above question (at 10:44) to the “IMO Workshop Medeling…” thread. I should have placed it there.
I can’t do the Public Engagement meeting — too bad, because I’d like to.
Barn owl at 9:35 The official is hoping for a policy that would be enacted when there was one confirmed case in the state of Washington. Fortunately, she is an experienced and well regarded public health official. I think what she says has some weight in the state. I sure hope so.
Just the fact that closing with only one case shows that they are considering the possiblities and how awful it could be. Washington state and Seattle are way ahead of the prep curve vs so many other parts of the country.
hmm, one case, that is not a pandamic. If you wait until the number of confimed cases is high enough that it could be a pandamic, then it would be too late.
This should be a no brainer. Anon 22 I am gratful that their are people like you who will go to all the time and effort preparing such a airtight straightfoward case. But you shouldnt have to. TPTB should have figured this out a long time ago. That some officials are still debating or even planning on keeping schools open infuriates me. The fact that you any many others are having to waste your time and expertise on this is a shame. Im sure your talents and time [as well as others] could have been spent on many other things. If we have to fight TPTB this hard over something as obvious as closing schools I wonder what hope there really is.
I applaud Washington State, glad to see that in at least a few areas government isnt totally disconnected from common sense
Doug Baker,
the argument for closing schools after 1 confirmed case is because of the rapid, no, explosive spread of a pandemic flu virus. This is discussed with figures on the IOM thread from 14:17 for the next 10 posts approximately. I know its long, but it does take a lot of explanation to fully understand the whole thing.
“If we have to fight TPTB this hard over something as obvious as closing schools I wonder what hope there really is.”
janetn, I wonder too. If we get enough information out to enough people, maybe some lives will be saved that wouldn’t have been. As a species, maybe that’s all we can achieve.