From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Indonesia Outbreak II

25 August 2006

Bronco Bill – at 15:21

Continued from here


Snowhound1 – at 14:43

Despite all of the confusion of suspected cases, new cases, etc. What is the actual count of COMFIRMED cases since this all began, beginning from the first confirmed case in Cikelet? What is the actual number of positive tests which have been returned? I realize that there are probably some of the early deaths in Cikelet, which may have been positive but never tested, but then again they could have died from Dengue fever or a host of other horrible diseases that are prevalent in the area….the point is, we will never know. I have been aware for some months that they have been testing thousands for “possible” bird flu cases, but in fact few have actually been positive. I guess my point is, that I am not going to be too concerned about the increase in “suspect” cases as there have been many, since the beginning of this year. I’m waiting for the positive results to start showing up or for deaths due to “suspected bird flu” to increase drastically before I am going to really get concerned. As Medical Maven pointed out the other day, Bird Flu is so thick in Indonesia you could cut it with a knife. There will continue to be human cases of B2H or poassibly another mammalian source there as long as it is endemic. I’m not so interested in bird flu, and that passing to man, but am trying to gauge when panflu begins to occur.


Desert Dan – at 15:07

I think they making a school holiday in that on area becasue they think or know it is going H2H.

I doubt the kids would be getting AI from birds at school?

pine ridge – at 15:33

Snowhound1, you said “There will continue to be human cases of B2H or poassibly another mammalian source there as long as it is endemic. I’m not so interested in bird flu, and that passing to man, but am trying to gauge when panflu begins to occur.”

I think we are all trying to find the *moment* a pandemic starts, we all want the heads up to top things off, sound the alarm for our families & friends, etc. But that means watching when/where/how and why humans are catching bird flu.

I treat every suspect case as positive. They have to prove to me that they patients are negative. I do not trust the testing, at least not what is done right away. If the patient recovers much too quickly for AI, then I assume they really were negative. If they are still in the hospital over a week, even with a negative test, I assume they have it. I know it’s not right, but it makes sense to me :)

pugmom – at 15:55

http://tinyurl.com/fqgxz dated 8–25–06 more news out of Sulawesi

Terkini two patients Suspect Bird Flu was in Kendari permitted to come home two patients the South-East Sulawesi regional Public Hospital that was expected suspect bird flu, on Friday early afternoon (25/8), was permitted to come home. After undergoing the maintenance for three days, they were returned because his condition has improved.

Two patients, Andika (one year 6 months), the Citizen Street Sao-Sao, the Bende District, the Baruga Subdistrict, the Kendari City. Another, Daffarial, the citizen Street Jati, the District of Wua-Wua, the Baruga Subdistrict.

Rumah Sakit Umum Provinsi Sulawesi Tenggara Director, Zamrud, said was based on the diagnosis, two patients suspect negative bird flu, but the hospital side continued to be waiting for results of the blood inspection that was sent to Jakarta. They diporbolehkan came home by the doctor, because hot his body descended, breathless was lost and coughs also recovered. Although returning to the house, the hospital side continued to monitor the health both of them.

In the meantime, the emerald named one family in the Punggalaka District, the Mandonga Subdistrict, that was expected suspect bird flu, this Friday also underwent the inspection in the South-East Sulawesi regional Public Hospital. Two from three children Ambo Sao, namely Ahmad Djafar (1 year 6 months) and Nurhidayani, 5, still was checked in the Intensive Care Unit. They were not yet put into special space the bird flu patient because not yet terindikasi bird flu.

The emerald added although the Ambo Sao family did not have the cost for the maintenance cost, the hospital side will continue to monitor the development of their health, that it was suspected was infected by the deadly virus. Ambo Sao said his three children, Istiati, 17, Nurhdayani, and Ahmad Djafar, was not put into the hospital because of not having the cost. They chose to take medicine in the house than must enter the hospital. Ambo Sao that worked as the taxi driver had had the experience when his child was brought to the hospital took medicine, the cost very big. The Indonesian media, 25/08/2006

Commonground – at 16:12

Oh! This is great!!! From pugmon - at 15:55:

“Ambo Sao said his three children, Istiati, 17, Nurhdayani, and Ahmad Djafar, was not put into the hospital because of not having the cost. They chose to take medicine in the house than must enter the hospital.”

Just wonderful.

pugmom – at 16:19

http://www.mediaindo.co.id/ dated 8–25–06

In the meantime in Cikelet, from observation in the field, on Friday, was seen not many poultries roamed about. Moreover, in the Rancasalak Village and Jojok, was not seen even one poultries, both that roamed about and in the pen. In the Cipicung Village, the Cikelet Village, that be at a distance around 500 metre from Rancasalak, still many poultries roamed about, both the chicken and the goose and the duck. Several citizens who were met stated, his poultry had been vaccinated by the official several days ago. “But, we in fact the fear tertular the bird flu virus.” We were waiting for the guidance of the official, if indeed must be destroyed, we nurut, explained the Trick, 40, the citizen of the Cipicung Village. The awareness of the community checked his health also began to grow in Cikelet.

As being revealed by the Head of the Cikelet Community Health Centre, Heri Winarto, since the last week, the number of medicating citizens to the community health centre increased drastic. Before bird flu spread, every day only around 20 people until 30 medicating people. For the last week, always more than 45 citizens that came to take medicine, and most with the hot as well as breathless complaint. For this complaint, apart from doing the inspection, each citizen was also given by Tamiflu. However, not even one the citizen that was required treated inap, because their condition was not heavy. Up until Friday, maintenance space in the Cikelet Community Health Centre in the empty situation. There was not again the patient was treated there. In RSHS Bandung, remained at two patients who were treated in space suspect bird flu. A patient, Tosin, 61, the citizen of the Cimangke Village, the Cijambe Village, of Cikelet has been stated by the bird flu negative, and in several days in the future could have come home. “We were still being waiting for results of Herman’s blood inspection, 21, the citizen Cikelet.” The Tosin condition continued to improve, the temperature of the body and the breath have begun to be normal, explained the Chairman Tim the Handling of Bird Flu of RSHS Bandung, Hadi Jusuf.

(maybe, finally, the letting up of bad news. What do you suppose the symptom of “heavy” refers to?)

Commonground – at 16:27

pugmom at 16:19, so they are saying they were getting 20–30 people every day, and for the last week, they were getting 45 a day. they came to take medicine, had a fever and labored breathing. I don’t understand “However, not even one the citizen that was required treated inap”? What’s inap? Unless they mean their condition was not so bad that they had to be admitted? and that the Community Health Centre was empty.

So I guess they poor people are walking around with fever and breathlessness, and are sent home. Oh boy. I feel for these people.

pugmom – at 17:15

(update on pregnant lady from Simalungun, North Sumatra) (dated 8–25–06)http://tinyurl.com/s3zsu

25 Aug 06 16:46 WIB was pregnant two months, Suspect Bird Flu continued to be given Tamiflu Although being known was pregnant two months, RSUP H, Adam the Owner continued to give Tamiflu medicine and anti biotik other to the patient suspect bird flu.

The “life of the patient more became the priority to be rescued,” said Deputy Director Pelayanan Medis RSUP H Adam the Owner Dr. M. Nur Rasyid, SpB, on Thursday (24/8).

According to him, RSUP H Adam the Owner at this time still was carrying out the further research concerning the effect from consuming bird flu medicines for the content of the patient suspect bird flu, RL, 34, the Simalungun citizen.

Now the condition for the patient at this time, Rasyid said did not yet have the significant change. Only temperatures of the body that has descended after beforehand the patient could experience the high fever, pilek, the cough and breathless. “Now has not been again feverish,” he said.

The patient suspect the bird flu was at this time being treated intensively in the room of the Longing of A RSUP H Adam the Medan Owner. The team of the doctor was waiting for results sample blood, the nose liquid and the throat from the patient yag was sent to the Jakarta health laboratory to confirm he was negative or positive sebagi the bird flu sufferer. As being reported sebelumya, the patient suspect the bird flu was reconciled from the Saribu Dolok Public Hospital, Simalungun, on Tuesday (22/8) struck 17:00, after being treated since August 15 2006, resulting from the temperature of his body high reached reached 39,5 derjat Celcius that was accompanied by the cough.

Apart from kodisi his health that was similar to the sign of the bird flu sufferer, casualties were expected terjangkit the bird flu virus because before experiencing the high fever, around casualties’s house was found by the poultry of the chicken kind died suddenly.

pugmom – at 17:18

Commonground—yes, I think that is what they are saying. The ill people didn’t require to be put in the clinic as they were only hot and breathless, but not heavy. I wonder if “heavy” means semi-comatose??

Commonground – at 18:07

It’s really a shame that they would have to be semi-comatose to be able to get a bed in the Health Center. That particular post really disturbed me on a number of fronts. 45 people a day, truging to the clinic to get their med’s w/fever and labored breathing. 45 a day. How many are not making the trip? That’s quite a few people.

pugmom – at 18:20

Commonground-18:07 Yes, and I posted an article on the “real skinny” about Ciketlet about 2 days ago, and in that, it said that people had to walk 20km up a steep mountain road to get to the nearest clinic. Hopefully, they have erected a closer “med” clinic.

ANON-YYZ – at 18:47

pugmom – at 18:20

I think they have about 5 ‘command posts’ or treatment centers near Cikelet to distribute daily Tamiflu, so that getting there won’t be too hard.

Influentia2 – at 19:12

The Simalungun Regional Government destroyed the Poultry in 14 Medan villages, on August 26: the Government of the Simalungun Regency, North Sumatra again destroyed the poultry in 13 villages and one district, in the Subdistrict of Silima Kuta, on Friday (25/8).This extermination did not reach the target because of the weather hindrance.Apart from because of rain, also many citizens that did not yet want to give his poultry to be destroyed.From the target 15.000 poultries, only 5.000 tails that succeeded in being destroyed.This the extermination of the stage Ii, after beforehand totalling 18.273 poultries were burnt.The total poultry that was destroyed in the Subdistrict of Silima Kuta 23.273 tails.Kordinator the Extermination of the Poultry of the Simalungun Regional Government, Jum Sadi Damanik, said the extermination of the stage Ii this more was difficult to be done because the official must comb all the subdistrict to destroy the poultry.Jum Sadi added, after being done by the extermination, his side will take the sample of the poultry in the Subdistrict of Silima Kuta to be checked again.To know results of the end, has the subdistrict been free the bird flu virus or not yet.In the meantime, in Street Jati Pasar 4 Sei Mencirim villages, the Sunggal Subdistrict, the Deli Serdang Regency, was found hundreds of poultries died with the characteristics was infected by the bird flu virus.The property poultry a chicken breeder, Wawan died with the anus became dark, the mouth issued saliva and all the nail turned blue.According to, the Official of subdistrict counselling, Wisler Sihombing, the official of Sunggal Livestock Breeding of the Service has taken the specimen and already memeriksakan him to the laboratory, only did not yet have results.(miol/broto)

http://tinyurl.com/js6e8

Influentia2 – at 19:38

Dipasok 5000 Tablet Tamiflu

On Thursday, 24 Agt 2006 was supplied 5000 Tamiflu Tablets

Will be spread all over the Banyuwangi-concern Community Health Centre the Banyuwangi community towards the spread of the bird flu virus from the poultry to humankind, currently seldom is reduced. That after the Health Service (Diskes) Banyuwangi accepted supplies 5000 tablets tamiflu from Diskes the Centre, yesterday. The medicine eventually diminumkan to the person who it was suspected was infected by the bird flu virus. Medicine that has been prepared diskes was medicine tamiflu took the form of the coloured capsule white and yellow. “We just received Tamiflu medicine today (yesterday, Red) from Diskes the Centre totalling 5000 tablets or 1350 stripes,” said Winanto, the program manager survelen epidemologi Diskes Banyuwangi, yesterday. For his channelling, diskes will allocate medicine tamiflu to all the community health centre in Banyuwangi. Especially for the community health centre that his area the bird flu danger, like Muncar, Rogojampi, and ferns, the Banyuwangi City or other. “Respectively the community health centre will be given 10 stripes and will be given free to the community,” obviously him. However, added he, the official of the community health centre will monitor before, whatever that appropriate was given tamiflu. When having someone that it was suspected suffered bird flu, the first action that must be carried out was gave tamiflu as the prevention. Because of the sign to same humankind like normal flu, namely the fever sufferer with the temperature of the body approximately 38 levels celcius, coughs, tengorokan was sick, the limp body, the nose had a runny nose, stiff, had a headache, and the inflammation of the cornea. “Immediately checked and that most important the prevention breakingprep early,” he appealed. Explained, the spread of the bird flu virus could happen when humankind bersinggunggan direct with the poultry that was sick or was infected by bird flu. The “method of preventing him by guarding the cleanliness of the environment, maintained body resistance, ate nutritious food, and the rest that were enough,” he suggested. (lla) http://tinyurl.com/h8c6w

I tried to read the whole thread(long)if this is a repeat I apologise.

Influentia2 – at 20:03

Tulungagung

http://tinyurl.com/egl8g

The child was suspected Terjangkit AI is Currently treated in Isolasi TULUNGAGUNG Space- the Virus Avian influenza (AI) that attacked the Karangrejo Subdistrict, it was indicated Claimed casualties. The Lasting goddess, 6, villagers Sukowiyono, the Karengrejo Subdistrict, were expected terjangkit the virus H5NI (the other AI name). He is currently treated in the room of the isolation of orchid space of RSUD Dr Iskak Tulungagung. The student TK Sukowiyono was brought to the hospital on Thursday early afternoon, in the last two days, around struck 10.00. When being brought to the hospital, the condition for the daughter of the Sugianto couple with Masriah this was very weak. Moreover in the condition did not make himself aware when arriving at the hospital. “When coming in the hospital yesterday (in the last two days, red), casualties did not make themselves aware.” His condition was weak and feverish high, said RSUD public relations Dr Iskak Tulungagung, Tri Widyo Agus Basuki yesterday. Okky -was like this Tri Widyo Agus Basuki was often greeted- acknowledged if the Lasting Goddess was treated in the room of the isolation.

Excerpt:

Fertile explained, in the last three days in his house was hajatan. He cooked four chickens that were bought from tetanga. And at that time, his grandchild also took part in eating this chicken. Then during the day, the Goddess’s Lasting body suddenly cramps. “Because frightened, okay then I immediately brought to the community health centre,” pungkas him. Now, the Section Head the Tulungagung Health Dr Rukmi admitted to knowing the existence of the citizen Sukowiyono that was suspected by bird flu. Moreover himself has seen directly the condition for casualties. The “big possibility, that not bird flu.” Because in this last inspection the temperature of his body has descended, said Rukmi when being found in his office yesterday. Rukmi acknowledged, so far indeed did not yet take the sample of the inhabitants’s blood around the location that was attacked by bird flu.

And then this Tulungagung:

Excerpt:

The man that his house was adjacent to the child’s house that was expected terinveksi the Goddess’s Lasting bird flu, that claimed to be his chicken coop was not yet scolded.In fact his property chicken many that died suddenly.”If the house of Mr Subur was indeed sprayed after being learnt his grandchild was sick,” said the blessing.Sir three children said if himself had 30 nonpedigreed chickens.However the 30 chickens died in the period three days.According to him, these chickens died inappropriately. “Usually in the afternoon was seen tired, continued the following morning to have died.” That I Taku this chicken died with the condition for his head that turned blue. Precisely as the characteristics of the chicken that was affected by bird flu, said the man were 47 years old. According to the blessing, the same incident was experienced by his neighbours. His neighbouring chickens also many that died suddenly. He also said that that has been reported to village equipment. However until this did not yet have spraying. “We already lapor repeatedly, but yes not had been responded to,” he accused. The same thing was also said by Jainah, one of the citizens Sukowiyono that other. According to him, his property chicken numbering belasan also was all gone because of dying suddenly. However up until now, had never had spraying in his pen. “I in fact frightened, but how again,” said Jainah.

http://tinyurl.com/jkatt

Influentia2 – at 20:29

Do these areas look familiar? Ponorogo and Magetan? Sounds more like 7 suspect cases total?

EXCERPT:

On Friday, 25 Agt 2006 continued to guard against Burung Flu 2006, 5 citizens Ponorogo Suspect the Virus H5N1 Madiun — Vigilance towards bird flu, again was sounded. As you know, till at this time, the virus was still becoming the spectre or the threat for humankind. The section head the Health of the Madiun City drg the Artist stressed, the main door to the spread of the bird flu virus or H5N1, was through the poultry. “So, that very incessant necessary disosialisasikan was in the sector of livestock breeding.” Because the main door to the spread of the bird flu virus was through the poultry, firm the Artist, yesterday. Added, as the step in anticipation, must have the thorough supervision especially the poultry that entered the Madiun City territory.

EXCERPT:

The vigilance warning towards the spread of the bird flu virus apparently was justified enough. The data that was released Java the Post yesterday was based on the data of the East Java Province of the Health Service, several areas in Eks Karesidenan Madiun entered in 10 big the endemic area. Among them, the Ponorogo Regency and Magetan. In two areas, was found by the patient suspect bird flu. That is, 5 people and 2 people suspect in Ponorogo and Magetan.

http://tinyurl.com/nk8z6

Influentia2 – at 20:43

Excerpt: This is disgusting.

SANDEN (KR) - was suspected of because of the bird flu virus, hundreds of nonpedigreed chickens and the duck belonging to the citizen of candlenuts(translated) and the Gadingsari Sanden Tray, dying suddenly since half of the previous month.The poultry that died this by the citizen partly was thrown away to the river and the rest were burnt because frightened the bird flu virus will spread.While the citizen from the village admits to up to now not yet having spraying disinfektan from the related service, although several months ago had been done.

Excerpt:

Whereas the characteristics of the chicken that died suddenly this, according to NY Sarjiyem among them the coloured cock’s comb blue, from the beak went out the liquid, and near the eyes also emerged the bluish colour.Whereas the chicken carcass that died, according to him was only thrown away to the irrigation channel that passed by in the territory so as to be worried by the virus will spread. NY Sarjiyem also claimed could menyembelih his property chicken that suddenly fell from the pen, but after being cooked evidently still not was consumed.

EXCERPT:

The citizen asked that the related service immediately carried out the action of anticipating matters of the negative that possibly could be caused. At least was done by spraying like the last six months as the preventive step.

http://tinyurl.com/ry366

ANON-YYZ – at 20:48

Influentia2 – at 19:38 – at 20:03 – at 20:29

Maps of Banyuwangi, Tulungagung, Madiun:

http://tinyurl.com/gfkxw

http://tinyurl.com/no4ea

http://tinyurl.com/qynwp

Influentia2 – at 20:58

“This not the Indonesian problem, but the problem of the world, so world responsibility.”

http://tinyurl.com/jf4pc

Anon_451 – at 21:04

Influentia2 – at 20:58 Your are correct in that statement, Indo is out of control. 30 to 45 new cases every day of B2H. The Tamiflu blanket will only hold so long. 240 Million people in Indo, is there enough Tamiflu in the world to treat that many people? How long would you have to keep the treatment up?

Just my very humble opinion.

Influentia2 – at 21:11

Thank you Anon-YYZ for the maps. Tulungagung I am familiar with. I have cases from July that I found on one of my searches where only the negative cases were reported (they survived), but there were 2 deaths (children) and their results I have never found anywhere. I still have those articles in my files.

Found it, EXCERPT:

On Saturday, July 22 2006 two pre-schoolers was suspected Be Hit By AISampel Blood in Send to the Lab Hongkong TULUNGAGUNG-Community must continue to be on the alert against the plague of the virus avian influenza (AI) or bird flu. That followed two pre-schoolers terbaring was sick that it was suspected was affected by this deadly virus. Two unlucky children had the initials DA, was 5 years old, and NA, was 5 months old. Both of them came from the Bandung Subdistrict. Both of them were taken his blood to ascertain this assumption. The sample of blood was brought to the Hall of the Health Laboratory (BLK) Surabaya and the Laboratory in Hong Kong. That was revealed Kasubdin the Prevention and the Eradication of infectious diseases (P2PM) Dinkes Tulungagung, Bahrudin Budi Santoso yesterday. According to him, the sample of blood of the two casualties was sent to Surabaya to last July 16. And up until now his side does not yet get results of the test of the laboratory. “We did not yet know whether positive or negative was affected by AI?” Because results of the laboratory up until now do not yet come. Usually results of the lab come four to one weeks.

http://tinyurl.com/ggj4k

ANON-YYZ – at 21:12

Influentia2 – at 20:58

The Vice President of Indonesia, MUHAMMAD JUSUF KALLA, speaking.

toggletext

“This not the Indonesian problem, but the problem of the world, so world responsibility.” And the world has promised in Beijing last year to gather the international fund for the control of bird flu, said Kalla. But, he added the international promise that was not implemented.

So, he added not the Indonesian fund that descended but the international fund that was not realised. That was needed by Indonesia from the international community, added Kalla, was the fund support and the expert to handle this bird flu.

Profile of the Vice President:

http://tinyurl.com/zg7ke

ANON-YYZ – at 21:15

Influentia2

Thank you for bringing us very useful news.

Okieman – at 21:16

Just want to make a comment to provide a bit of perspective.

I have been at a conference and away from the internet since Tuesday, Aug. 22. During that time it appears that a very significant expansion of the locations of suspected cases of bird flu in humans has occured. A tamiflu blanket in the Cikelet region has been laid down, and there are fairly large numbers of people reporting flu-like symptoms. (If you take Tamiflu early enough do you just get regular flu-like symptoms versus life threatening symptoms? Just wondering.) With the perspective of being away for a few days, it sure seems that something very very different is going on compared to previous “high alert” times we have experienced on the FluWiki. This one is not dying down. It also appears to be expanding to other areas while possibly continueing to smolder in the Cikelet area.

I’m not suggesting that the time to SIP has occured, but judging from the “atmosphere” here at the Fluwiki forum, there has been an adjustment to a new normal. One can stay at high alert just so long, so it is probably to be expected, but I wanted to point out the fact.

My PPF has now gone from a 6 to a 7. My numbers are not a reflection upon my preparation, but rather upon my feeling that a pandemic is imminent.

Okieman – at 21:18

Would the possible with holding of funds be an indication some have decided that it is already a lost cause?

ANON-YYZ – at 21:24

Okieman – at 21:18

It may be the opening bid of a negotiation cycle. You can also call it posturing or driving a hard bagain.

pugmom – at 21:29

partial article dated 8–26–06 giving more info on Palu infections. Notice they look for disease in the eyes, conjunctivitis must be one of the cardinal signs. http://tinyurl.com/zx9yf

Liputan6.com, Palu: bird flu Terrorism did not yet stop. This time the deadly virus haunted the Palu citizen, Central Sulawesi. Hundreds of tails of the chicken died suddenly and three citizens namely Elis and the child under the age five years, Farah as well as Kiki must be treated because of being expected terjangkit bird flu.

Was like this results of SCTV observation from Palu, recently. The assumption of the indication of the existence of the virus “attack” avian infuenza the sub-type H5N1 this started from the complaint of three citizens to the post of the plague of the bird flu virus of the control co-ordination in Palu West. The three citizens Street Datuk Pamusu, this Kamonji District then was brought to the Undata Public Hospital, Pali to be checked.

Elis claimed, since the last three days the high fever was accompanied by the cough. The woman aged 21 this was frightened terjangkit the virus H5N1 because of his house exact was faced with the Baharuddin residence that dozens of his chickens died suddenly. Results of the inspection mentioned, Elis was it was suspected infected by bird flu.

Currently Elis must be treated in RSU Undata isolation space. The concern about the bird flu virus caused hundreds of kindergarten pupils in Kamonji that his location was adjacent to the pen of the chicken livestock was given a holiday a week.

However before being given a holiday, hundreds of pupils were examined his health by the doctor and the medical team local. Only, the team did not find the affected pupil the sign of bird flu.

Influentia2 – at 21:34

You are welcome Anon-YYZ at 21:15

I am not posting this to alarm anyone, only to inform you. I am always hesitant to post, but I feel we should learn as much as we can. Sometimes, I don’t want to know anymore.

I have a question though.

I have read that the virus can survive for 35 days in water. So if these chickens are thrown into the river, then should I consider the possiblity of all mammals, etc. that drink from this river as maybe becoming infected somehow?

What about the possibilty that this river comes out at some tourist spot near a beach or something? Say you are vacationing on one of these beaches, could there be a danger there you cannot see?

I wonder about this Anon-YYZ.

ANON-YYZ – at 21:39

Influentia2 – at 21:34

Some one else will answer this question better than me.

I do recall a post that during 1918, rivers did play a clear role in transmission.

I also suspect the probability of transmission may correlate with the concentration of hte virus or the load that is actually passed on to a bird, human or animal.

Influentia2 – at 21:40

Anon-451 at 21:04

I am not in the medical profession, so this is jmho, but I would guess Tamiflu would just become ineffective from misuse/overuse. So in the long run it wouldn’t matter how much Tamiflu you have.

Anyone in the medical profession can set me straight on this.

Grace RN – at 21:44

Okieman – at 21:16

“re: This one is not dying down. It also appears to be expanding to other areas while possibly continueing to smolder in the Cikelet area….my feeling that a pandemic is imminent.”

I agree with you 200+%;doubt there have been this many suspected cases in one place in such a short period of time. I can’t shake the feeling that this “flare-up” could indeed be the start of panflu. It would be reassuring to get test results more quickly, or if pigs are sick/dying, but….

Medical Maven – at 22:11

Sounds pretty chaotic over there. This is “the blitz” part of H5N1’s onslaught.

Hurricane Alley RN – at 22:16

Poor Indonesia appears to be fighting an uphill battle with h5n1. Why is this virus spreading so far so fast. Is it just comming from chickens or is there a mammalian host with the ability to move about helping this situation grow? This outbreak started when two young men fed dead or dying chickens to dogs. Have dogs been tested for h5n1? Have dogs died recently? Would this even be considered news worthy. We all know dogs will roam. Of course, this would also mean they could be spresding this virus not only to other dogs. but humans as well. JMHO. Any takers? gina

Michelle in OK – at 22:23

The list below is my first try at a chronological sequence of suspected cases. I have not eliminated suspects if the results were negative. I used Milo and mammypoko’s previous summaries as starting places. Groups of relatives (estimated from discussions) have been shown in like colors. A red + indicates the individual tested positive for H5N1. The first identified day of symptoms has been labeled DAY 1.

Day 1 26-Jul Cumul= 2 Misbah (20M), cousin Umar (17M)+ symptoms
Day 2 27-Jul Cumul= 3 Santi (6F) symptoms
Day 6 31-Jul Cumul= 4 Sardi (4M) died
Day 7 1-Aug Cumul= 6 Ai (9F)
+ symptoms, Rubiah (13F) died
Day 11 5-Aug Cumul= 6
Misbah (20M) died
Day 20 14-Aug Cumul= 7
(? Exact date) Meggy (perhaps Suawardi’s wife & Nursifah’s mother)
Day 21 15-Aug Cumul= 9 Ai (9F) died, Ismawati (5F) symptoms, RL (34F) symptoms
Day 22 16-Aug Cumul=11
Dea (9) died , Risma (4F) symptoms
Day 23 17-Aug Cumul=13
Euis Lina (35F)+ died, Eti (35F) hospital
Day 24 18-Aug Cumul=17
Kuraisen (32F) symptoms, MASS TAMIFLU, Nursifah (6F) + hospital
Day 25 19-Aug Cumul=20 Ayi (10F) hospital, Memen (60M) hospital, Yana (50) hospital
Day 25 19-Aug Cumul=21
Sibling of Rubiah & Misabah - Risman (5) hospital
Day 26 20-Aug Cumul=23 Gilang (14) hospital, Tosim (61M) symptoms
Day 27 21-Aug Cumul=26
Dadan and 2 children symptoms (family of Euis Lina)
Day 27 21-Aug Cumul=29
Osin (36M) symptoms (husband of Kuraisen)
Day 27 21-Aug Cumul=29 Siblings in hospital: Putri Wira Maharani (8F) , Putra Wira Aditya (3.5 month M)
Day 29 23-Aug Cumul=30 Herrman (21M) hospital
Day 29 23-Aug Cumul=32 Siblings in hospital: Andika (1.5) and Daffarial
Day 29 23-Aug Cumul=35 3 of family in hospital: Istiwati (17), Nurhadayani (5), Ahmad Djafan (1.5)

Day 31 25-Aug Cumul=38 3 of family hospitalized: (21F), (2) (1.5)

If anyone identifies mistakes to be corrected or additional information to include, please feel free to add comments. I ran out of colors that would work, so suggestions are welcome… very time consuming.

Also, the summary was done before postings in this thread (I’ve been formatting in the sandbox for a while)… Add 2 suspects from July 22: DA (5) and NA (.5)

Day 32 26-Aug Cumul=41 ‘’Elis(21), Farah (5), Kiki

41 + 2 = Cumulative 43 Suspected Infections

Okieman – at 22:35

Thanks Michelle. The cumulative count helps has helped me get a handle on what has occured while I was away.

One thing that seems to stand out is the fact that there are now more family cases in just the past few days.

DennisCat 22:41

Michelle in OK – at 22:23 Great work- thank you.

Tom DVM – at 22:49

Hi gina. I haven’t said this in the past two years but it appears that there is no way to tell what the hell is going on in Indonesia.

Maybe its time for the World Health Organization ot activate that ten million dollar television studio they built (I wonder how many hospitals ten million dollars would build in Indonesia) and start telling us what is actually going on.

I think they have already found that dogs can get H5N1 and die…I don’t think they have demonstrated that they can spread it, but as you know allowing this ‘freak’ to circulate in any animal is a ‘fools game’…they’ve been playing it in China for ten years and we are about to pay the price…it looks like…unfortunately.

pugmom – at 22:54

Thankyou so much Michelle for your timeline. When you see the chain of infections, laid out in black and white, you get a much better feeling for how much trouble we are in.

Monotreme – at 22:57

Okieman and Grace RN, I share your concern.

Michelle in OK – at 22:23, thanks so much for what you have done. It’s very important.

It re-inforces my impression that there is now a continous stream of cases in Indonesia. Only the sequences can tell us for sure that this is H2H. We have all been conditioned to look for a sudden surge in cases, but I think if the R0 is just slightly above 1 and/or most contacts are taking Tamiflu, we may not see that surge until the virus escapes the Tamiflu blanket and reaches a densely populated area.

IMO, this is a more dangerous situation than Karo. It may not be the start of the pandemic, but it’s getting harder and harder to argue for optimism.

Michelle in OK – at 23:00

Can I try to be an optimist? Please notice that there are only 4 + on the chart. And, the last reported death was Aug-17.

With that being said, if my optimist side was winning, I would’t have done the chart. Okieman, Dennis C., and pugmom, I’m glad it was helpful.

Michelle in OK – at 23:02

Monotreme, I’m glad it was helpful to you as well. The optimist thing was quite an idea to get crossed in the wires.

Monotreme – at 23:06

Michelle in OK – at 23:02

LOL!

Good luck to your optimist side.

Influentia2 – at 23:07

Tom DVM at 22:49

There is a mention of pigs in one from Medan I found tonight.

Excerpt from The Medan citizen was appealed to to guard against the Bird Flu Illness:

Maksum Sitorus also reminded the citizen in order to ban the poultry breeder and the pig in roaming about to mengantasipasi the occurrence of the mutation of the virus H5NI to type that crueller. http://tinyurl.com/gtx9l

blackbird – at 23:12

My thanks as well, Michelle. Other observations:

People have recovered (or are recovering) from this batch, I believe. It was a lot scarier when the whole Karo cluster was either dead or seriously incapacitated over the long haul/

No more + after the mass tamiflu

blackbird – at 23:12

My thanks as well, Michelle. Other observations:

People have recovered (or are recovering) from this batch, I believe. It was a lot scarier when the whole Karo cluster was either dead or seriously incapacitated over the long haul/

No more + after the mass tamiflu

Tom DVM – at 23:15

Monotreme. If they are now releasing sequences, how come we haven’t got any from this particular cluster.

Influentia2. Thanks a lot…unfortunately what I need are some serious serological studies and it appears they don’t want to see the results of such a study or at least being put in a postion of having to disclose it.

Michelle in OK. I’m sure you didn’t mean it that way but thanks…that was my chuckle for the day /:0)

I think this thing could ‘pop goes the weasel or chicken or cat or dog or us’ at any time but I think it is going to happen either in China or in a country bordering China…and there are a lot of ‘silent’ countries out there that we are hearing nothing from…I thought that was what the World Health Organization was about.

It doesn’t look good and I think the ten year and five year timeframes are now out of the picture. Everything else is still up in the air.

Tom DVM – at 23:16

I still think it will be this winter but I can’t put my finger on exactly why I believe and have believed it was imminent all along…a subconcious analysis I guess.

Tom DVM – at 23:22

Monotreme. How long would it take from the time the person got sick to resonably producing consistent and conclusive sequencing data?

If I really needed the sequence and we really wanted to do everything possible to get the sequence quickly…could we speed up the time-frame?

ANON-YYZ – at 23:27

Michelle in OK

My thanks as well.

I guess we have to wait/watch for 10+ days after the Tamiflu blanket and see where this takes us. There was a report of spreading to a place 100 Km north of Cikelet. Hope the movement of either chicken or human took place before the Tamiflu blanket. Was this case included, and if so, who is the patient?

Monotreme – at 23:29

blackbird,

Tamiflu works, if it’s given in time, preferably before symptoms occur. That’s why it’s useful as a prophylactic or when given quickly to contacts but will not be of much use treating patients during a severe pandemic. Its very sad that the government never decided to produce it in bulk using the new, cheaper manufactering technology pioneered by several scientists.

Tom DVM, the CDC has had plenty of time to analyze the sequences and comment on whether it’s H2H and make the sequences public. The haven’t updated their Current situation page since August 9. The silence is deafening.

Is it any wonder reporters rely on flu blogs and boards rather than the CDC for information?

Monotreme – at 23:31

Tom DVM – at 23:22

The CDC has the sequences. They know the answer. They just aren’t telling us.

Tom DVM – at 23:31

Monotreme. Thanks. If you and I had a patient in front of us with what we thought had H5N1, how long would it take to get sequencing data?

Hurricane Alley RN – at 23:38

Back at ya - Hi Tom, Hope you’re doing well! My way of thinking is a mutation here a mutation there can open this virus to all kinds of possibilities. Including dogs. But who’s looking?

Just a bit of wishful thinking, but maybe they can still turn their new television studio into a hospital (na). They are going to need it sooner than later.

All I know is that my gut is telling me something not nice is going to blow up in October. I’m hoping it will just be a hurricane. That I can handle. Honestly, I don’t think that’s it.

BF no longer stands for Bird Flu for me. It’s now stands for Bad F$#&@R. Anyhow, I think you get the drift. I don’t normally cuss, but the way things are going, I’m going to have to adopt a new resolution before New Year.

Try this site for Waterfowl Flyways. -gina

Tom DVM – at 23:45

Gina I am trying to reform…but I think I say Grace today using the ***-*** button. I like your approach though…a little more artistic.

I was just chuckling about something which is a good thing cause I haven’t been doing it a lot lately since gs left and he and Bronco Bill are not jousting anymore.

It seems to me that we have quite a collection of psychics on flu wiki…you know what I mean…You don’t suppose that we are all a ‘flock of witches’ that just kind of came down to land on top of flu wiki…we all seem to have the same feelings at approx the same time without completely being able to explain it…Now I think I will hop on my broom and go to bed…see you later.

Monotreme – at 23:49

Tom DVM – at 23:31

If you and I had a patient in front of us with what we thought had H5N1, how long would it take to get sequencing data?

Assuming we got a good sample, a week at most. 72 hours under most condtions. If we were in a real hurry - 1 long day. And we would be in a hurry.

See this paper:

Influenza A H5N1 Detection

Our data prove that the assay is specific for H5 subtype and capable of detecting and quantifying H5 RNA in clinical samples from patients obtained during different outbreaks (1997, 2003, and 2004). Unlike nested RT-PCR, the real-time assay not only reduces the risk for contamination but also reduces turnaround time to 1–2 hours, 3 times faster than the nested RT-PCR. In conclusion, our study demonstrates that our real-time RT-PCR assay is rapid, specific, and relatively sensitive for directly detecting influenza A subtype H5 virus and may be useful in routine diagnostic testing.

This paper relates to detection, so you can see there is no reason for long lag times for confirmation of cases. Sequencing is another step, but can be done in a long day.

Hurricane Alley RN – at 23:50

Tom - I’s the Panflu site setup by the CDC. gina

Tom DVM – at 23:52

My broom stalled out so I am still on the ground…Thanks Monotreme…I should have concentrated more in the broom flying course. /:0)

26 August 2006

anon_22 – at 00:45

Whether the use of tamiflu ‘blanket’ will result in resistance strain causing a pandemic depends on many factors:

  1. R0 of emerging native strain
  2. percentage of population given tamiflu
  3. transmission fitness of resistant strain
  4. specific mutation conferring resistance

In general, NA inhibitors tend to have a lower rate of resistance than M2 inhibitors. However this low rate may be due to the low usage up to now. M2 inhibitors had low resistance until recent years, and then the resistance rate shot up very rapidly.

Secondly, viruses acquiring resistance to M2 inhibitors do not seem to have any transmission fitness trade-offs, whereas those resistant to NA inhibitors do tend to have marked trade-offs in transmission fitness.

There is, however, some evidence that transmission fitness trade-off depends on the specific mutation(s) conferring resistance. The mutations R292K and H274Y appear to result in substantially impaired growth and transmission, whereas there is some evidence in ferrets that E119V does not have the same effect.

I tend to think that the risk of resistance is low unless they are really able to give tamiflu to 100% (or close to 100%) of the population, since an emerging pandemic virus would spread very easily among susceptible subjects, and anybody who did not receive tamiflu would still be susceptible to the native emerging strain.

We need only to worry about tamiflu resistance arising directly out of containment IF containment is successful, ie there are no more susceptible individuals who are not protected by tamiflu to be infected by the original strain, and there are only those who are taking tamiflu to be infected by the resistant strain. Plus the resistant strain needs to have enough transmission fitness to give R0 >1.

In other words, there needs to be a combination, in the same location, of the following:

  1. an emerging pandemic virus
  2. 100% successful containment
  3. emergence of resistant strain
  4. resistant strain has R0>1

Here is the paper in Science on tamiflu resistance:

Emergence of Drug-Resistant Influenza Virus: Population Dynamical Considerations which was also summarized here

pugmom – at 00:50

Michelle—I am trying to corroborate your timeline. I have gone back and re-read all the posts (on all the forums). I think it is possible you missed some cases. However, right now, my eyes are crossed and my head is spinning, so I may have some redundancies here as well. Take a look. (Some names are added, where you had just initials.) Add or subtract to your timeline as you see fit. Thanx so much again.

Jakarta — MIOL: The Employee of the BCA Bank the branch of Pluit, Jakarta North (North Jakarta), Marliana, 32, was expected (suspect) was infected by the bird flu virus. ( Aug 13 Jakarta)

confirmed that Nursiva positive terjangkit avian influenza.() Nursiva, the girl was six years old three months ( Aug 18 from Bekasi )

K (32F) - Sawah Bera village - (Osin - husband) has had fever for last 3 days - house 100 m from Ai Siti’s and Ismawati’s houses - only several houses away from Santi’s - not confirmed - in hospital (Aug 18 Cikelet)

Suwardi, for example. He claimed to be his wife died with the sign similar to bird flu, every few the day before Nursifa fell ill. Apart from Nursifa, RSPI Sulianti Saroso treated a bird flu patient in this month. However the patient that also from Bekasi finally had died. Mega Saputra blew out the last breath after could undergo the maintenance in ICU space for three days The above translation describes another suspect H5N1 bird flu fatality in Bekasi (Aug 13 Bekasi)

pregnant lady from Simalungun, North Sumatra) (dated 8–25–06)http://tinyurl.com/s3zsu (initials RL age 34 N. Sumatra Aug 25)

Terkini two patients Suspect Bird Flu was in Kendari permitted to come home two patients the South-East Sulawesi regional Public Hospital that was expected suspect bird flu, on Friday early afternoon (25/8), was permitted to come home. After undergoing the maintenance for three days, they were returned because his condition has improved. The 2 patients were: Andika (one year 6 months), the Citizen Street Sao-Sao, the Bende District, the Baruga Subdistrict, the Kendari City. Another, Daffarial, the citizen Street Jati, the District of Wua-Wua, the Baruga Subdistrict. (Aug 25 Sulawesi)

Hundreds of tails of the chicken died suddenly and three citizens namely Elis and the child under the age five years, Farah as well as Kiki ((Aug 25 (3 people Palu))

pugmom – at 00:54

Note to Michelle—I need to check on that Marliana, the early one from Jakarta, she was possibley ruled out.

pugmom – at 01:36

Michelle—we should leave Marliana off the list—some references later on to her being depressed only.

pugmom – at 01:52

Anon_YYZ—23:27 Thankyou for reminding about the patient from Banyongbong, so Michelle can add it to her timeline.

(Bayongbong, over 100 km from Cikelet, now has a suspect BF victim, a 14 y.o.)http://tinyurl.com/l69mh dated 8–25–06) Suspect AI emerged in Bayongbong Garut the bird flu VIRUS from the Subdistrict Cikelet the Garut Regency (14 yo Bangongbong, Garut Aug 25)

treyfish – at 06:37

bumper

Commonground – at 06:43

http://tinyurl.com/gxxha

The Nursiva condition (6 years), the positive patient bird flu, that was treated in the Infection Hospital (RSPI) Sulianti Saroso, currently increasingly improves. Moreover, according to the Chairman Tim the Extraordinary Incident RSPI Sulianti Saroso Doctor Sardikin Giri Putro, Nursiva that beforehand was stated positive bird flu, from results of the inspection third blood was precisely stated by the bird flu negative. However, Nursiva was not yet permitted to come home/because still had few disturbances to his lungs. As being reported beforehand, Nursiva gradually his condition improved. Therefore, from Tuesday (22/8), he was moved from Intensive Maintenance Space to RSPI Sulianti Saroso Isolation Space. Nursiva that positive contracted bird flu beforehand was treated intensive in space ICCU. according to the team’s information of the doctor that handled, Nursiva experienced the infection in the left and right lungs. The doctor also added Nursiva did not have contact with the chicken. The bird flu illness that was experienced by Nursiva was classed in the level of the two bird flu from four available bird flu groups. The four groups that is first the virus infection H5N1, the two pneumonias without the inflammation of the lungs, the three pneumonias in an inflamed manner the lungs as well as finally pneumonia with damage of the body member that was disrupted. __________________

ANON-YYZ – at 07:21

Commonground – at 06:43

The doctor also added Nursiva did not have contact with the chicken.

According to Michelle in OK:

Day 20 14-Aug Cumul= 7 (? Exact date) Meggy (perhaps Suawardi’s wife & Nursifah’s mother)

No easier B2H, then will they say this is H2H?

Who got it from whom?

Commonground – at 08:20

ANON-YYZ -at 07:21 - good point!

Influentia2 – at 09:12

Excerpt:

The HAMMER, Kompas - totalling 215 students the Aisyiyah Kindergarten, Palu, on Friday (25/8), began to be checked by Tim Medical the Control Command Post of the Plague of Palu City Bird Flu.The inspection was carried out to confirm that 215 students TK Aisyiyah not terjangkit the bird flu virus (avian influenza) considering in the TK building was found by 22 positive chickens terjangkit the bird flu virus.

http://kompas.com/

Hospital Trends?

Medan, was on the alert Online

Excerpt:

Facilities RSUP H Adam the Owner as the centre of handling reconciliation of bird flu in North Sumatra did not yet fill the standard. Because that was planned in this year will be built the building as well as the increase in facilities, especially to handle bird flu. “Moreover later will be built the laboratory to analyse the sample of blood suspect bird flu to know whether positive or negative as the sufferer,” said Director RSUP H. Adam the Owner, Armand P. Daulay, on Friday (25/8). Explained by Armand, in handling the case of bird flu, RSUP H Adam the Owner was at this time hindered with facilities that an existence. Whereas from the aspect of the medical staff in RSUP in fact has sufficed. Therefore, he said, with help from Pemprovsu that originated in APBD North Sumatra, will be built a special building to handle the problem of bird flu. Whereas for the increase in facilities would ditanggungjawabi by the Department of the Health (the Department of Health). Explained, his plan the building will be built totalling 12 rooms and it was estimated will spend the fund around Rp.1 billion. “However that most necessary immediately at this time was the increase in facilities, like the monitor, the ventilator (respiratory aids) and the laboratory implement,” he said. He explained, the increase in facilities must be immediately carried out because the spreading of bird flu has in North Sumatra been increasingly wide.

http://tinyurl.com/e8xyk

Excerpt:

West Java - Banten West Java prepared 10 hospitals to KLB Bird Flu the writer: Eriez M. Rizal

Bandung — MIOL: the West Javanese Health Service (West Java) prepared 10 special hospitals the maintenance of the patient was infected by the bird flu virus in several cities and the regency. Among them the regional Public Hospital (RSUD) Dr Slamet Kabupaten Garut, was equipped the special laboratory. The increase in the number of hospitals was decided after West Javanese Governor Danny Setiawan, on Tuesday (22/8), determined the case of bird flu in his territory including the category of the extraordinary incident (KLB). The section head West Javanese Sanitation of the Environment of the Health Service, Fatimah Resmiati, on Wednesday (23/8), said although to 10 hospitals was not as complete as the Handsome Sadikin Hospital (RSHS) Bandung. However, at least the affected patient the virus avian influenza (AI) could be handled fast.

http://tinyurl.com/ezv48

Dennis in Colorado – at 09:22

I also note the description of classification system mentioned in Commonground at 06:43′s article:
# H5N1 infection

  1. Pneuomonia without pulmonary inflammation
  2. Pneumonia with pulmonary inflammation
  3. Pneumonia with pulmonary inflammation AND damage of the body member that was disrupted (discoloration of extremities? DIC?)

The doctor also added Nursiva did not have contact with the chicken may be the most important sentence in the whole article.

Dennis in Colorado – at 09:23

Let’s try that list again:

I also note the description of classification system mentioned in Commonground at 06:43Śs article:

  1. H5N1 infection
  2. Pneuomonia without pulmonary inflammation
  3. Pneumonia with pulmonary inflammation
  4. Pneumonia with pulmonary inflammation AND damage of the body member that was disrupted (discoloration of extremities? DIC?)
Tom DVM – at 09:50

annon 22. I agree with everything you said at 00:45 and I know that you have spent a lot more time then me studying Tamiflu and its pharmacokinetics…

…but and there is always a but isn’t there, I would like to make a comment to bring the discussion down to my simple way of thinking.

Every anti-pathogen drug including antivirals and antibiotics and antiparasites, antifungal…and pesticides and herbicides for than manner have all had problem with resistance developing…

…this resistance did not have any effect on the overall lethality of these pathogens…if anything the mutated and resistant pathogen was stronger.

So once again I rely on nature’s pattern and history to say that Tamiflu will be no different…if used as a blanket or in other words ‘thrown at the wall hoping some will stick’…we will have a pandemic resistant strain from the get-go…

…The World Health Organization just isn’t collectively smart enough to use these stockpiles wisely!!

Influentia2 – at 09:52

The Bird Flu inspection in the Laboratory of Disnak JatimSurabaya - the Surabaya Citizen could seldom sigh in relief.For the time being, Surabaya was stated safe from bird flu.Results of the blood inspection of 12 chickens belonging to the citizen of the Mortar Fishpond, Sukomanunggal, in the Health Laboratory of the Animal Dinkes the Province was stated by the negative.However, to confirm, these results still must dikomparasikan with results of the waste inspection as well as mucus that were carried out in the Big Veteriner Wates Hall, Jogjakarta.Results of the inspection in Jogjakarta just could be known around two weeks more.

Excerpt:

Breeding, Agriculture, and Forestry (DPKPPK) the Municipal Government took the sample of blood 12 chickens that still was living to know the level of his immunity towards the virus H5N1 (the bird flu virus).”Results, the level of immunity (titer antibodies, Red) 12 chickens were high enough,” revealed drh Yetty Rizal, the head DPKPPK Surabaya, yesterday. Results of this test also showed that the level of immunity towards the Newcastle virus disease (ND) very high.Meaning that, according to Yetty, there was the indication that beforehand in this area was also spread the virus.”So, the temporary assumption, dozens of chickens that died some time before that was caused by ND or Newcastle disease,” he explained.This assumption was based that beforehand the poultry in the Mortar Fishpond already divaksin bird flu.”So, the possibility was affected of the virus H5N1 very small.”On the other hand, the poultry could there be affected by ND because not yet divaksin this virus, he revealed.

Excerpt:

The official also sprayed disinfektan in several markets in Surabaya.That is, the Wonokromo Market, Pucang, Gubeng, and Krampung Cotton.The Wonokromo market was regarded as the place of the trade in the biggest poultry in Surabaya.”Daily had the rotation 40–50 thousand poultries in the Wonokromo Market,” said the alumnus this FK Unair.

Excerpt:

In the meantime, several buyers in the Market Pucang Young claimed not restless on the existence of rumours of bird flu. They continue to mengonsumsi the chicken as usual. “Not worried affected how come.” We continue to mengonsumsi as usual, stressed Heni, one of the routine customers mengonsumsi the chicken. (kit/cie)

http://tinyurl.com/rr83a

Michelle in OK – at 11:10

26/08/2006 19:02 - Nusantara/Headline News

Metrotvnews.com, Tebing Tinggi: the Tebing Tinggi Public Hospital, North Sumatra, treated a patient suspect bird flu. This patient was named Fatimah, the citizen of the Bulian District, Tebing Tinggi. He was run off with to the hospital because of experiencing the high and breathless fever after dozens of his poultry died.

Until at this time Fatimah was not yet ascertained terjangkit bird flu. However, he was treated as a patient suspect bird flu. This was the case of bird flu to first humankind that was found in Tebing Tinggi…

banshee – at 11:26

I’ve been off the wiki for most of the week and I am trying to catch up on this thing. Not easy! Looking at the post by Michelle in OK at 22:23 I was wondering if the majority of those individuals are being tested for H5N1. I noticed just 4 of the 38 suspected had tested postive. (I know we will not get results on all of them.) Some possibilities: something else is also circulating in Indonesia and causing flu like symptoms, panic on the part of villagers (I don’t blame them for that!), panic on the part of the Indonesian government, mis-reporting or double-reporting by the media, mis-reporting by the Indonesian gov’t to get more funding, etc. With that said, I think it is safe to say that there is definitely something going on in Indonesia right now and that at least a good portion of the H5N1 suspected cases are indeed H5N1. I also think we may have some issues with false negatives on the tests. But, I don’t think that every suspected case in Indonesia right now is in fact H5N1. Just my opinion. I do think we are coming close to the point where the waters become so muddied that it is impossible to figure out what is really going on. I think it might be better to start moving from the micro level to the macro level view of things.

RPh – at 11:37

Is it just me, or does the WHO seem to be firing with pea-shooters?

It’s just that I believe a pandemic is inevitable at some point and there is nothing that will prevent it coming. The actions of the WHO (i.e. blanket Tamiflu prophylaxis) will only succeed in delaying the emergence of an even more pathogenic strain for which we will have NO weapon.

Couldn’t the money (and the Tamiflu for that matter) be better allocated than to this front line measure? I say let nature take its course as it undoubtedly will and deal with what may come. If people start monkeying around with what they think is “controlling” the virus, they are in for a big - and nasty - surprise.

Jefiner – at 11:52

bump

Okieman – at 12:00

RPh – at 11:37

I think there is value in slowing this monster down where ever possible. For each day that it is slowed down, it means an additional day to try to figure out how to stop it or how to deal with the consequences when it reaches our shores. As I heard somewhere, it is better to use your spit to try to put out the match, rather than saving it to try to put out the forest fire.

Edna Mode – at 12:20

Comment!!!

ANON-YYZ – at 21:24 It may be the opening bid of a negotiation cycle. You can also call it posturing or driving a hard bagain.

How about we call it what it is, in plain language? H5N1 rolling out or, as the business wonks are famous for saying, “ramping up” for pandemic.

All the time I have been following this (which, granted, isn’t as long as some here), I have gathered info from as many credible sources as possible—including some of it unverified but authentic-sounding reports on this site as well as others. For nearly a year now, my gut feelings have pretty much exclusively been validated as accurate within two to three weeks of me arriving at a conclusion. While it feels “good” to be proven right, it also feels very bad. I really want to be wrong about this.

Unfortunately, my gut is telling me that if the pace of news continues as it has in recent weeks, my family will probably begin SIP by November or December, if not sooner. I have no medical or scientific degree. I have no inside information (well, other than my gut feeling!). But this is the conclusion I arrive at when I quiet my mind and let all the info sift gently into place like a sugar snow in March.

I hope those who are not fully prepped have an opportunity to at least finish laying in the essentials in the next month or two. Those who are fully prepped, IMHO, would do well to begin the top-off process.

If anyone disagrees or thinks I’m totally nuts, please do tell. I would love to latch on to something hopeful—or even delusional at this point!

Edna Mode – at 12:21

Sorry about the three exclamations after the word Comment above. Not intended. Guess I mucked up the formatting.

Michelle in OK – at 12:25

Thanks to all who have offered input. I’m not sure a continued summary will be possible, but I’ll make the following changes in my records:

Does anyone have a handle on whether the 3 family members from Aug 25 and Aug 26 are actually the same. I only have 3 names: Ellis (21F), Farah (2 or under 5), Kikki (1.5 or ?. Not entirely certain the 3 are family. Perhaps 2 siblings and (21F) unrelated.

Thanks for everyone’s help. I actually have an Excel spreadsheet set up with the details. Is there any way to post this instead of retyping manually? Then I could include the locations as well.

pugmom – at 12:29

Michelle---I am mentally trying to add to your timeline to keep it going and accurate. I think we need to add 3 more since posting last night. First of all Fatima from North Sumatra that you picked up on today. Then influentia2 picked up on 2 last evening that I didn’t even see till this am. Here are her references:

Influentia2 – at 20:03 Tulungagung (new case on 8–25–06, southern Java) http://tinyurl.com/egl8g

The child was suspected Terjangkit AI is Currently treated in Isolasi TULUNGAGUNG Space- the Virus Avian influenza (AI) that attacked the Karangrejo Subdistrict, it was indicated Claimed casualties. The Lasting goddess, 6, villagers Sukowiyono, the Karengrejo Subdistrict, were expected terjangkit the virus H5NI (the other AI name). He is currently treated in the room of the isolation of orchid space of RSUD Dr Iskak Tulungagung. The student TK Sukowiyono was brought to the hospital on Thursday early afternoon, in the last two days…. and: Influentia2 – at 19:12 (Indo article dated 8–26–06) The Simalungun……The property poultry a chicken breeder, Wawan died with the anus became dark, the mouth issued saliva and all the nail turned blue.According to, the Official of subdistrict counselling, Wisler Sihombing, the official of

Comment: this article above is a hard one to read. Are they talking about a man dying or describing a chicken breeding property?? Until we rule him out, I believe they are describing a human death. Also, I tried to help with the timeline myself, but my posts were pretty late last night. Did you see them?

Anon_451 – at 12:35

banshee – at 11:26 That was the same thing that was being said in 1918. Indeed it may well have been true that some of the cases may not have been the Flu, however the flu still happened.

Edna Mode – at 12:20 If we all remember John Barrys Book, that the flu was bubbling in Kansas in late 1917 and early 1918 and had those young soldiers stayed at home it MAY have died out, however they did not and the first wave was started. With 240 million people in Indo, no way they are going to be able to stop the boil.

RPh – at 11:37 Yes they are firing with pea shooters, but have to remember that is all that they have. Okieman – at 12:00 is correct, they are buying some time whit there actions. The real problem is that the world has decided to go to a party instead of staying home to study so they can Ace the exam that is coming.

I do hope that we that are studing for the exam aill not have our pencils broken and paper taken away from us by those that stayed late at the party.

As for my preps. completed and topped off. I am as ready as I can be.

ANON-YYZ – at 12:35

Michelle in OK – at 11:10

Location of Tebing Tinggi, North Sumatra on Map shows it’s about 60 miles north of Medan, which in turn is about 60 miles north of Pematansiantar (another area of outbreak).

It seems the Karo cluster (near Medan) was spreading north and south along the high way at similar rates.

Map:

http://tinyurl.com/eo72s

pugmom – at 12:45

Michelle—at some point the timeline thing is just going to get too burdensome for all of us to do/keep up with. Maybe that point has already arrived. I have been wracking my brain to try to think of a method whereby we could keep track of patients without all the labor and painful hard work, but for the life of me, I can’t of any other way to do it. Since they mention the same person over and over in different articles, and when they rule them in or out, there doesn’t seem to be any other way to keep track of them other than listing them. At some point I am just going to sit back and go “wow, another one” when I find them in the translations and not bother with listing them. When you read the same names over and over every day, a new name pops out at you. What do you think and where is your end-point??

DennisCat 13:01

Anon_451 – at 12:35 “bubbling in Kansas in late 1917″ and remember that it was bubbling in Tibet for a year or two earlier. It reminds me of the Indo events. I think it will mutate there and then “explode over here”. We may not be moving troops to spread it around but airlines move a lot of people now.

RPh – at 13:03
Commonground – at 13:05

pugmom - at 12:45, I have actually come up with a way to handle this. Take 2 people per district. To tackle the updates. Somehow the 2 people could have eachother’s e-mail address’ and talk between eachother to get the stories straight, and then post them here. That way, one person would not get burned out trying to cover it all.

RPh – at 13:11

Okieman, the forest fire has already started. H5N1 is endemic on the largest continent in the world. When very large wildfires strike here, it is common to strike down good forest to isolate the blaze, evacuate homes and install sprinklers in the hopes to save property. A much more effective use of resources. I think using Tamiflu PROPHYLACTICALLY is akin to a bucket brigade on a 60,000 hectare fire.

If they used those same buckets just on the buildings(i.e. treating only known cases of infected persons), perhaps some good could come of it. That’s all I’m saying. To even consider us capable of containing something like this is laughable.

pugmom – at 13:17

Pretty good idea Commonground. We could have one person do Sumatra, one person do Java, one person do Sulawesi, for example. (I need to take a crash course in Indonedian geography). We need to float the idea out there. I would be willing. I already email Influentia2 to compare notes and stories, so I know she would be amenable. May simplify things, but would require a certain degree of coordination, and of course, would come the feeling of obligation and the feeling of “Oh, no, I can’t be away from my computer today as I am duty-bound to hold up my end,” etc. It may be easier to just list numerically, say, for instance I would take Sumatra, and just list numerically (without all the details and ages, etc.) my totals of new patients for the day. (I would be keeping my own list, so would know it is accurate, but when I would give Michelle the totals for that day, I would say “Add 3 new cases for the day of 8–26–06 to Sumatra.” Just an example. Anyone else want to give feedback on this?

Okieman – at 13:26

RPh – at 13:11

The forest fire in humans has not started yet in my opinion. It has in poultry, yes. But in humans, there are spot fires flaring up here and there. At some point in time, I am afraid one of these spot fires will really catch the right combination of wind and fuel and take off.

I agree, ultimately it is not containable. But right now I think there is some value in the tamiflu blanket. In my opinion, it is buying us some time. How much time it will buy us, or how long the blanket should be continued to be utilized, is anyones guess right now. At some point we will run out of time or tamiflu.

I appreciate your frustration, but I am afraid they are using the only tools they have available. The moment of opportunity to stamp it out in poultry has long come and gone. This is a disaster in slow motion.

Lurker – at 13:34

I have a question about mutations. I have read in several places (including JV’s q&a posted yesterday) that SOME experts think there is a small chance when the BF becomes H2H, it may lose some of it’s punch and become less deadly. Why on earth would anyone think that could even happen? It did not happen in 1918, did it? Or DID it? I know no one should count on that as a possibility, I am just wondering why any expert may think that given it did not happen before with the 1918 pandemic.

RPh – at 13:37

True, there is no significant viral activity in humans yet. I just think that given the finite number of doses of Tamiflu that are not only available now, but because of manufacturing constraints will be available in the near future, that those doses could be put to better use.

The willy-nilly use of antibiotics have proven time again that resistance emerges, and actually quite quickly. I say willy-nilly because the doses are being given to healthy individuals with no outward symptoms, and no serological evidence of exposure.

For every person to receive a two week prophylactic course, 2 people could receive treatment post-exposure.

I agree that more should be done to help slow the spread so more preparation can be done, I just disagree that prophylactic use of antivirals is the appropriate course, and may ironically worsen our fate.

DennisCat 13:46

I think the main function of the tamiflu is just to slow down the spread and possibly buy time. They cannot go on giving tamiflu to people month after month as it hits the same region over and over again.

janetn – at 13:57

Lurker short answer The virus has to becaome an upper resp. disease to transmit effectivly. As of now it has been a lower resp disease, which = harder to treat, and high mortality. An URI is easier to treat, and also easier to spread

Michelle in OK – at 13:57

pugmom, I did see your comments from last night and tried to incorporate changes as discussed above. I picked up AT(14) and changed the date of Mega from Aug-14 to Aug-13 (She was in yellow and hard to see before, so I’ll drop that color. I’ve also included the names Elis, Farah, and Kiki, but am unsure if they are different that the 3 which were on Aug-25.

The following things I did not change, becuase I think they are already included: K(32) I believe to be Kuraisen. Nursiva I believe to be Nursifa (which was already included but in yellow so hard to see). Meggy (changed to Mega Saputra) was shown as Suwardi’s husband (possibly Nursifa’s mother?) The pregnant lady RL(34) you show as in hospital Aug-25, I read an article showing she had sypmtoms on Aug-15, so that’s where I included her. I captured Andika and Daffarial going to hospital on Aug-23. Because of space limitations, I did not try to capture dates of when people were released.

Again, thank you so much for helping to keep track.

Milo – at 14:16

As far as keeping track of all this, would it help if there was a separate wiki-page, like the cases charts, rather than or in addition to posting it on threads. (Or would that cause an ethical problem, since the names of actual people would be posted on the more permanent wiki side of the site?)

Grace RN – at 14:22

banshee at 1126:

re:”I think it might be better to start moving from the micro level to the macro level view of things.”

I agree with that-my concern is that if we keep looking at each case with the redundant, difficult reporting we could could miss the panflu for the viruses..If this situ in Indonesia is not the beginning of “IT”, then we’ve just expended a little more adrenalin than usual. <sigh> And it’s not even Sept yet….

Commonground – at 14:27

I typed a post but it never showed up? For all I know I hit the reset button instead? Left the house right afterward. Anyway, I thought if those of us who were interested could send our e-mail addresses and the websites that we are comfortable using to a Moderator, or a person willing to post their e-mail here. The coordinator would then set up 2-person teams and compose a list of all teams with e-mail addresses. The coordinator could divide us up into 2 person teams. If we are away, busy, whatever, so what? What do we have now? It’s really getting to the point where the few people we do have are going to throw their hands up into the air - soon. I would be willing to participate. And as far as geography goes, I have no knowlege of these areas. That’s why I thought if we were set up for Districts, and someone could tell us all the villages/hamlets/whatever within that area, I would scour the few sites I look at, and detect them by the area. Which would certainly make it easier for me.

pugmom – at 14:33

To Anon_YYZ, Commonground, Michelle, and Influentia2: I have been thinking more about Commongrounds very good idea to share the tracking responsibiities (see my post 13:17). To eliminate the horrible feeling of having to turn in a “term paper” every day, we could post our cumulatives, say, every 3 days or so. Yet, we would still keep posting our translated articles to the folks on Fluwiki for interest and information. If we are gone or off the computer for several days, it is pretty easy to catch up with our assigned areas, as you can backtrack on the newspaper articles very easily. 3 people would probably work, 4–5 people would be nicer. If we find articles relating to another person’s “assigned area”, we could copy and email it to them for their heads-up. Anon has a very good grasp of Indo geography—I was wondering, if we take on this shared-responsibilities venture, would you be willing to take a look at the Indo geography, and where the cases have popped up, and be willing to give us the areas of assignment? Of course, it would depend on how many people we have. It would probalby entail assigning 3–5 areas. Which brings me to next question: I am new here—is it legal and proper protocol to share email addresses here? It would pretty be hard to do this task without emails to each other. (However, not impossible.) I just know all the rules here. I don’t know about where to post it all—I will leave that up to you. We could still keep posting our articles on the Indo thread, as we have been doing, as all we would present to the forum every 3–5 days would be the cumulative numbers (no names,etc.)

pugmom – at 14:36

Commonground—we really think alike!

pugmom – at 14:39

Correction: I meant to say, I don’t know all the rules here.

Grace RN – at 14:42

Edna Mode at 1220

It takes courage to stand up and say “I think this will ocur in such and such a timeline..” Tom DVM and myself also feel that this fall/winter will bring panflu (Tom-like the “witch” analogy. My broom is fine, thank you).

Hopefully, next year this time we can tease each other about being wrong. It would be interestingto see if there is a road or waterway directly connecting these affected areas, and then follow the outbreaks with an eye at other villages/towns/hamlets along those roads.

Does anyone know what “terjangkit” and “mengonsumsi” mean? It might be helpful to get a few key words in Indonesian translated to help with the machine translations…

Commonground – at 14:43

Yes pumom we do. We or let’s say “I” don’t want to put my e-mail address here. I’ll send it to a Mod. But I don’t even know how to get their e-mail address!!!

pugmom – at 14:47

Commonground—I wonder how many takers we will get. If we get enough, it would be nice, as you suggested, to have 2 people per assigned area. Also, you talk about a moderator—do you think they would be willing to take on this task to help us?? I, for one, have no compunctions about posting my own email address here. Any way you would want to do it would be fine with me.

FrenchieGirlat 14:50

Grace RN – at 14:42 - It would be interestingto see if there is a road or waterway directly connecting these affected areas.

ANON-YYZ – at 12:35 said It seems the Karo cluster (near Medan) was spreading north and south along the high way at similar rates.

As an aside, I seem to remember that for China, someone remarked that a number of early BF outbreaks happened along a railway line. At first, I thought, hoho, humans are carrying the sick birds by train or truck, but someone better versed in ornithology than I told me that actually, birds do follow roads and railway tracks as well rivers!

pugmom – at 14:51

Grace—I don’t know what those words mean. Toggletext won’t translate them. Maybe Mamypoko knows.

pugmom – at 14:55

Commonground—all we would need is for one person to post their email (as myself) then everyone could email me and then I would put you all in touch with each other. Wow, isn’t the internet an amazing thing!

ANON-YYZ – at 15:04

pugmom and Commonground,

I am not good at tracking names, ages, dates etc.

Consider the alternative of a protocol of modified voluntary ad hoc contribution. What if a new Indonesian Summary Tracking thread is started, with the initial summary that Michele created, but at the end of each post list the last posting name/date/time included, and then list the number of “Tracks” that need volunteer contributors. Tracks could be Java, Sumatra, Suluwesi. When a volunteer has time, S/he will announce via a post “I got Java”, and proceed to work on updating, then post a new summary, including the previous one, and always the last thread/poster/date/time included etc.

This way, no emails, no mods, and anyone can hop in when there’s a bit of time.

What do you think?

Commonground – at 15:04

O.K. That’s fine. Set up a new thread with our plan….or maybe you want to write it out here for lower profile? And we’ll give it the weekend to see how many sign up. Remember to have them state which websites they like to use to gather their information. this will help in your determination of the teams.

pugmom – at 15:05

Grace, in my readings I assumed terjangkit meant “to come done with” or “acquired the symptoms of” flu burung. But that is just a guess.

Commonground – at 15:11

ANON-YYZ - we will probably end up stumbling over eachother statistics. Especially if we are only including “suspected” “confirmed” “etc.”. No names, just numbers. You are very good at maps though, I’ve noticed :-)

ANON-YYZ – at 15:19

Commonground – at 15:11

I could only do the easiest maps. I search them while I read the news thread in order to help understanding, so might as well post them to save every one some time.

There’s a few people on this forum who really know GIS, Google Earth etc.

pugmom – at 15:22

Anon, Commonground—I REALLY like this new idea. Takes pressure off too. With this new plan, do we really need teams?? Seems like one person could just volunteer for Java, (for example) etc.?? (I think I could find all the info on Java in about an hour or two, for example.) Also, Commonground, could you explain to me why we would need to list our websites?? Is it just to create teams? And why would it do this?? I just don’t understand very well. Thanx Anon for being so creative. I hope Michelle weighs in on this. Influentia2 won’t be back at computer till later this afternoon. PS—my computer skills, such as formatting, creating documents, are pretty abysmal, actually non-existent.

Commonground – at 15:39

pugmom - at 15:22:

I thought if we listed the websites we prefer, when we make up the team, hopefully, we will get more different sources of information. If we can do it individually, that’s o.k. too. My main concern at least for myself, is being able to locate the right area. Take Garut for instance. There were so many many hamlets. But we could keep it more general. Garot period. Java period. I also like that idea. I like that idea a lot!!! What we could start out with is printing up the latest summary by Michele, and working from there. We could keep our own tally’s on paper (with notations of the website/time of post/date) and then just update the figures daily. It also makes it easier to not use names. I know this sounds impersonal. But I think our main objective in this whole effort, is to keep us all informed of outbreaks and if they are expanding or not. That’s the bottom line.

Commonground – at 15:42

ANON-YYZ - there are other areas to keep track of also. Some people have mentioned air travel. And watching that for changes. I’ve not a clue how to go about that. Then there is the travel warnings, CDC updates (not!), ProMed articles, Commentarys by EffectMeasure, Mortality/Morbidity counts for US, and other countries, lots of stuff, that if we all broke into teams, could be covered so much more efficiently.

Michelle in OK – at 15:43

I’ve been reorganizing the list above to separate by region, based on the comments above. Since I already have a comprehensive Excel spreadsheet started, I’ll likely try to incorporate everyone’s ongoing suspects into it.

I’ll be glad to post a revised by region list this evening to help everyone have a starting place. But, I’ll need a little guidance. My headings so far are as follows

I have no idea where to put the following: Bayongbong, Tulungagung, Ponorogo, Magetan. Can anyone help with the location?

Also, there was a student of TK Sukowiyono. Does anyone know where this is? Thanks.

Commonground – at 15:47

I think we should get organized and we shall start a thread once we know what we are doing, and our “assignments”. Our thread should be called…ready?…….FLUBUSTERS! Who ya gonna call? FLUBUSTERS! LOL!

Commonground – at 15:56

as an example from Influentia2 at 20:29. Here is the article. But where is this place? The article just says Madiun City. Where’s that? Java? Sumatra? Sulawesi? We will need a breakdown, so we know what to look for. Someone said Anon_22 has a good grasp of the region. Here’s the article:

Do these areas look familiar? Ponorogo and Magetan? Sounds more like 7 suspect cases total? EXCERPT: On Friday, 25 Agt 2006 continued to guard against Burung Flu 2006, 5 citizens Ponorogo Suspect the Virus H5N1 Madiun — Vigilance towards bird flu, again was sounded. As you know, till at this time, the virus was still becoming the spectre or the threat for humankind. The section head the Health of the Madiun City drg the Artist stressed, the main door to the spread of the bird flu virus or H5N1, was through the poultry. “So, that very incessant necessary disosialisasikan was in the sector of livestock breeding.” Because the main door to the spread of the bird flu virus was through the poultry, firm the Artist, yesterday. Added, as the step in anticipation, must have the thorough supervision especially the poultry that entered the Madiun City territory.

pugmom – at 16:15

Michelle, Bayongbong is in Garut, west Java. Ponorogo is East Java. magetan is East Java. Tulungagung is East Java.

Michelle in OK – at 16:18

Unless there are objections, I’m going to call Ponorogo and Magetan “Madiun City” which is in E. Java.

Michelle in OK – at 16:26

Wikipedia has great info over Indonesia. Here is a pretty clear map labeling the regions. You can also search by names of cities or regions to get additional info.

Link to Wikipedia

ANON-YYZ – at 16:30

I think Indonesia Outbreak Summary Only would be easiest to understand so people don’t post news and make it too hard to track.

Also, even the toggletext takes a bit of time to do (to be posted in discussion or news thread), so its good to post newspaper or web sources at the start of the “Indonesia Outbreak Summary Only” and invite people to go to news sources and toggletext. So we have division of labor.

I found this list of Indonesian newspapers:

http://tinyurl.com/qnzmz

ANON-YYZ – at 16:33

ANON-YYZ – at 16:30

Sorry, to clarify, I mean divide the toggletext labor but post only to News or Discussion thread (like this one), not to Summary Only thread (to be created).

Michelle in OK – at 16:35

Thanks for the above locations, pugmom.

I searched Yahoo for Sukowiyono. In every article, Sukowiyono was a coach in Bandung. I think I’ll label that suspect as Bandung, W. Java.

Commonground – at 16:43

ANON-YYZ - at 16:33 - Thanks for those newspaper sites. Could have used that a month ago. So, if I understand you correctly, while we have the article toggletexted, we might as well post it in the News thread, and take our statistics from it and use those for our Summary Only thread. that sounds fine to me.

Michelle in OK – at 17:24

Here is an updated list, chronological within city. Individuals who have tested positive are labeled with a +. Each individual is only intended to be listed once, at the date symptoms are first mentioned. The numbering starts over within each region. The cumulative total for all regions is 50 with symptoms of H5N1.

Cikelet, W. Java

  1. 26-Jul Misbah (20M) symptoms, died Aug-5
  2. 26-Jul cousin Umar (17M) + symptoms
  3. 27-Jul Santi (6F) symptoms
  4. 31-Jul Sardi (4M) died
  5. 1-Aug Ai (9F) + symptoms, died Aug-15
  6. 1-Aug Rubiah (13F) died
  7. 15-Aug Ismawati (5F) symptoms
  8. 15-Aug RL (34F) symptoms, to hospital Aug-25
  9. 16-Aug Dea (9) died
  10. 16-Aug Risma (4F) symptoms
  11. 17-Aug Euis Lina (35F) + died
  12. 17-Aug Eti (35F) hospital
  13. 18-Aug Kuraisen (32F) symptoms
  14. 18-Aug MASS TAMIFLU DISTRIBUTION
  15. 19-Aug Ayi (10F) hospital
  16. 19-Aug Memen (60M) hospital
  17. 19-Aug Risman (5) hospital - Sibling of Rubiah & Misabah
  18. 19-Aug Yana (50) hospital
  19. 20-Aug Gilang (14) hospital
  20. 20-Aug Risma (4) hospital
  21. 20-Aug Tosim (61M) symptoms
  22. 21-Aug Dadan and 2 children symptoms (family of Euis Lina)
  23. 21-Aug Osin (36M) symptoms (husband of Kuraisen)
  24. 23-Aug Herman (21M) hospital

Bekasi, W. Java

  1. 13-Aug Meggy or Mega Saputra (possibly Nursifah’s mother) died
  2. 18-Aug Nursifah (6F) + hospital

Bandung, W. Java

  1. 24-Aug student TK Sukowiyono to hospital

Bayongbong, W. Java

  1. 25-Aug AT (14) hospitalized

Tulungagung, E. Java

  1. 22-Jul DA (5)
  2. 22-Jul NA (.5)
  3. 25-Aug Lasting Goddess (6) hospital

Madiun City, E. Java

  1. 25-Aug 5 suspects in Ponorogo
  2. 25-Aug 2 suspects in Magetan

Kendari, SE Sulawesi

  1. 23-Aug Siblings hospitalized: Andika (1.5) - released Aug-25
  2. 23-Aug Siblings hospitalized: Daffarial - released Aug-25
  3. 23-Aug 3 of Ambu Sao’s family hospitalized: Istiwati (17)
  4. 23-Aug 3 of Ambu Sao’s family hospitalized: Nurhadayani (5)
  5. 23-Aug 3 of Ambu Sao’s family hospitalized: Ahmad Djafan (1.5)

Palu, Central Sulawesi

  1. 26-Aug Elis(21)
  2. 26-Aug Farah (5)
  3. 26-Aug Kiki

Palembang, S. Sumatra

  1. 21-Aug Siblings hospitalized: Putri Wira Maharani (8F)
  2. 21-Aug Siblings hospitalized: Putra Wira Aditya (3.5 month M)

Tebing Tinggi, North Sumatra

  1. 26-Aug Fatimah (elderly M)

Please let me know if I’ve assigned someone to the wrong area or if other changes/additions are needed.

Thanks for all the input. I’ll be out until late tonight.

Commonground – at 17:43

I’ve printed up the list. Should I take Sumatra? Or do you want to break it down between North and South?

Sarah – at 17:50

From http://www.mediaindo.co.id/berita.asp?id=109538

Monitored kondisi

Tim Department of Health was also monitoring tightly the condition for the health of four citizens Cikelet, namely Rangga, 6 months, Aris, 10, Pipit, 6 and Burhan, 35. The four citizens were ascertained as suspect bird flu, because experienced hot and sick.

“We were observing them in the field and continued to carry out the tight monitoring by giving medical treatment.” If his condition worsened, the four of them were immediately reconciled to RSUD Dr Slamet, Garut or RSHS Bandung, stated Fatimah.

In the meantime, results of the blood inspection of five casualties suspect bird flu that was treated in RSUD Dr Slamet and RSHS Bandung, has gone out and results of the negative. They were Yana and Gilang that beforehand were treated in RSUD Dr Slamet, as well as Osin, Kuraesin and Tosin, that were treated in RSHS Bandung.

pugmom – at 17:58

Boy do I like this new way of doing things. Your format with it broken down into regions is just great Michelle. So we are up to 50! I remember seeing 45 yesterday—see, it has already grown. How should we make the regions. How about 1. Sumatra 2.Sulawesi 3. East Java 4. West Java 5. Cikelet (all on its own, for awhile, anyway) 6. Jakarta or OTHER (such as any new islands.) Another question just to clarify: can we still go on posting for ALL the areas on the Indo thread when and if we run across articles?? (ie, not just of our own particular “assigned area.”? I think we ought to be able to do that. Then we can read the news first on the Indo thread, when we are doing our “homework” and possibly get a headstart and see some stuff that applies to our areas. Also, probably more interesting to the readers and allows all of us to take a break from the computer. (We wouldn’t fell obligated to spend all day looking for our areas, as we would know other people are fulfilling that task as well.) Also, if we set restrictions on people and only allow them to post certain things, it can get boring for the poster. What do you think?? When do you do your spreadsheet Michelle? I imagine most of the people will pick an area in the am when they log in. Myself, I am a night-owl and do most of my stuff late at night. Quick tip: When there is a town that I don’t know where it is, I google it in both English and Indo (use the preferences to the right of the google bar). You can usually see which province/island it is from the headline sites that come up. Thanx for the map, I will go study it.

Commonground – at 18:01

Michele in OK at 16:26 posted a link to a great map. North and South Sumatra won’t work. Pugmom, let me know how you want to divide this up.

ANON-YYZ – at 18:05

Commonground – at 17:43 & Michelle in OK,

I remember the following names of places:

Saribudolok (near Pematangsiantar), Silboga, Lubuklinggau on Sumatra island, in addition to the latest report about Tebing Tinggi.

Palembang is capital city of South Sumatra, and those patients may be from Lubuklinggau.

pugmom – at 18:08

Michelle, if you make a small chart at the bottom of the summary which EACH one of us could copy, paste in a post, then sign up for our chosen area, and then repost, then we have a moveable sign-up sheet. For example: (I think I am thinking straight.

                                                      will this work??)

1. Sumatra _________________

2. Sulawesi _________________

3. East Java _________________

4. West Java _________________

5. Cikelet _________________

6. Jakarta __________________

    (and other)
DennisCat 18:10

Michelle in OK – at 17:24 Great job ! Just what I needed to help understand the situation- the only problem is that the numbers are scary now that I see them.

pugmom – at 18:19

Also another tip. The first thing I do when I go pecking and hunting is to pick the Indo language thru Google preferences (as talked about above). Then I type in Flu Burung Cikelet or Flu Burung Palu or whatever region you are looking for, and up pops some of the news articles you many need. Google keeps all of them in its memory. If you have Flu Burung Cikelet typed in, erase the Cikelet, and all the other Flu Burung regions you have ever used pop up and you can visit every one of them without straining your brain. I found all this out by accident. And the Indo newspapers site has been my number one site I go to too.

Commonground – at 18:25

pugmom - at 18:08, a couple things come to mind. If you go to the map michelle posted and click on for ex. South Sumatra, I’m hoping it will list all the towns within. Don’t know. Have to try it. Also, I think we should post every article that pertains to our individual assignment into the News thread. Any way we wish, but include of course the link. Maybe in our Summary Thread next to a changed statistic, we could indicate the post time and date in the News Thread. For example:

N. Sumatra

Suspected:

2 (post # ? - 8/25)

Deceased:

Do we want to get into specifics as to “at home” “hospitalized” “gone home”. I don’t. :-( Michelle won’t be back until real late tonight. Everyone should just continue to post what they want, and we can read the posts for pick up on new information for our assignments. Just let things remain the same, but we will have our own mission. Put me down for Sumatra (I will list North and South seperately though, because of the distance between each - see map) I’m going to try now to click on each area and see if it comes up with hamlets/towns, and also try to print map.

Commonground – at 18:28

google bar? I’ve got a Mac. oh boy, here we go…..preferences for google?? I hate this stuff.

Commonground – at 18:34

Here is a list of provinces of Indonesia, grouped by island(s) region (Please note: region is not a subdivision of Indonesia). Name in Indonesian language is shown on italics.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Provinces_of_Indonesia

Commonground – at 18:37

We really should break this up into Provinces. That’s the easiest.

ANON-YYZ – at 18:41

Commonground – at 18:34

Thanks. If you follow the link down the bottom of the page, you will see the 349 Regencies and 92 Cities.

Lurker – at 19:11

janetn – at 13:57

Well the 1918 pandemic turned upper respiratory, right? And it did not get less lethal, am I correct?

Commonground – at 19:14

So, I’ve copied out my map, Provinces, Cities & Regencies for North and South Sumatra. I guess this is what I will type:

S. Sumatra - Suspected (2)

N. Sumatra - Suspected (1)

Or we could do something like this:

S. Sumatra - Suspected (2)

Siblings hospitalized 8/21. 8 (F) & 3.5 month (M)

N. Sumatra - Suspected (1)

8/26 - (elderly M)

If I make 2 back slashes at the end of typing something, will that break the line up? I’d rather do that than double space.

pugmom – at 19:29

Commonground—do you really think breaking it up into provinces is easier? There are so many of them. There are only 7 regions though. Of course, all the outbreaks so far have been in only about 3 regions. I agree about the posting and keeping it simple. Just go on posting about anything you want in the regular thread, but pick a region to do your own homework/tallying on. I like your second example of tallying, the one with a little more info. The list may get so complicated eventually that we have to go to just straight numbers. We will play it by ear. Also, to take some of the pressure off Michelle and the rest of us, maybe we should only try to update the giant tally/spreadsheet every 3 days or so. So if we sign up for a region, we would follow that on our own for the 3 days. I know how peoples’ interest wanes and pretty soon lose interest and we may not have anyone signing up at all. Don’t know how it will work. Won’t know till will try.

pugmom – at 19:37

signup for Aug 27, 28, and 29

1. Sumatra __commonground

2. Sulawesi__

3. East Java _________________

4. West Java _________________

5. Cikelet ____pugmom

6. Jakarta __________________ (and other)

This is just an example. You can change the regions/provinces whatever. Copying and reposting seems to work for sign-up sheet, if you like it. PS—I will take Cikelet for the next 3 days.

Commonground – at 19:39

You are right pugmon, I got it mixed up. It’s 7 Regions. Break it up in Regions. Yes, I agree, every 3 days to update. And just copy and paste the same list in the update with any changes in a different color. That way people know that specific person is new or now gone home. And we would just post it as usual under the thread that ANON-YYZ suggested. Right? And keep Ciklete seperate, right?

ANON-YYZ – at 20:00

NEWS

http://tinyurl.com/opwrv

Outbreak of killer virus ‘ignored’

If statistics are anything to go by, Umar bin Aup should be dead. Seven weeks ago in his village, Rancasalak on the south-western coast of Java, dozens of hens including some of his family’s 14 birds started dying for reasons no one could explain. Then, in early August, after hundreds of fowl had succumbed and at least three people in the area had died in mysterious circumstances, Umar, 16, came down with a fever.

That it took at least six weeks as well as the deaths of hundreds of hens and probably three people for the authorities to become aware of a massive bird flu outbreak in their midst demonstrates just how poorly the sprawling archipelago is coping with containing the disease, let alone stamping it out.

Influentia2 – at 20:10

Commonground, Pugmom, others,

I will take East Java if you like. Let me know here or Pugmom can let me know as we already communicate.

AnnieBat 20:11

Can we take the summaries we already have above and post them to a separate thread - perhaps called “indonesia outbreak case summaries” and ask people not to use it as a commentary thread - just to post further summaries as we move forward.

ANON-YYZ – at 20:14

AnnieB – at 20:11

Call it “Indonesia Outbreak Summaries No Comments”?

NJ. Preppie – at 20:21

You guys are doing a great job, just checking in and saw this article which may have new suspect names: Hendra 21, Gilang 9.

Korean news

“Cities in Indonesia are falling like dominos to bird flu: Garut in West Java, then Kendari in Southeast Sulawesi, then Dairi, Serang, and finally Simalungun in North Sumatra.

…Hendra, 21, and Gilang, 9, were the latest victims to test positive for the bird flu virus. They received medical treatment at Dr. Slamet Hospital in Garut. Four others are under observation in their homes by Health Ministry teams. If their conditions worsen, the teams will bring them to the hospital.”

“In Kendari, Southeast Sulawesi, more than 1,300 chickens in seven sub districts were slaughtered after testing positive for the bird flu virus. …Simalungun was hit this week. More than 15,000 chickens were culled, …Serang also reported the bird flu virus last week after about 300 chickens suddenly died.”

Surabaya, Indonesia’s second largest city, is still unaffected, but the cause of the recent deaths of 40 chickens there has yet to be determined. Other areas have not yet reported outbreaks but it may just be a matter of time before they too fall to bird flu.

In Garut, the virus first appeared in the villages of Cikelet and Cigadog, but it has since spread to other villages. The number of suspected bird flu victims continues to rise each day.

ANON-YYZ – at 20:43

A new thread is created to update the summaries and tell every one who’s working on summarising which province.

http://tinyurl.com/f5uyo

This is similar to the concept of Grid Computing

http://tinyurl.com/rh6fd

or Bit Torrent

http://tinyurl.com/a4mlh


In anticipation of more and more cases in multiple locations or even countries, we can borrow the methods such as grid computing or bit torrent to redistribute the time consuming work load to many volunteers. Thanks for all who work so hard to put this together.

Influentia2 – at 20:52

http://tinyurl.com/h53g2

More info on the suspect case the Lasting Goddess:

Excerpt:

On Sunday, 27 Agt 2006 should not be closed the AI

TULUNGAGUNG Matter- the Section Head Tulungagung Danduk Sudarham Livestock Breeding that apparently covered the case of bird flu received the criticism of the council’s circle. Every time that related the safety of the public, must him should be not covered up. The community could be on the alert or be on the alert so as to be not fell casualties. This criticism was revealed by the Chairman of the B DPRD Tulungagung Suprapto Commission. According to him, the Livestock Breeding Service ought to learn from the case that happened in the Bandung Subdistrict. The community was made sensational because of having the case of bird flu that knew-knew his casualties died. He also hoped that this case was not repeated again. “Was thought by me the case in Bandung the day time could be made the lesson.”

Excerpt: Apart from the attitude that was closed, politicians from PDIP this also regretted spraying of bird flu that was not yet equitable.According to Suprapto, the handling of this bird flu must be carried out comprehensively, don’t half of the-half of the.”As spraying of disinfectant should be not only carried out in casualties’s house or certain houses, but must be total all through the citizen.”So as to not cause the unrest in the community, he explained.As is known, in the Sukowiyono Village, the Karangrejo Subdistrict, was found by the chicken died.After being investigated, the chickens died because of the virus H5N1 or bird flu.Moreover a child was expected terjangkit the deadly virus.Currently, the child was named the Lasting Goddess got the maintenance of the medical RSUD team Dr Iskak. Now, the Section Head Danduk Sudarham Livestock Breeding denied it it was said covered the case of bird flu up.

Excerpt:

Concerning spraying of disinfectant, Danduk also stressed that that has been done maximally. According to him, spraying has been carried out comprehensively. “Because of every time was finished the spraying will have his report.” So if being said was not yet equitable that was untrue, he added. (yog

ANON-YYZ – at 21:21

Influentia2 – at 20:52 & Michelle in OK

As is known, in the Sukowiyono Village, the Karangrejo Subdistrict, was found by the chicken died.

Based on map of Karangrejo near Tulungagung, Sukowiyono is not in Bandung, West Java.

http://tinyurl.com/kqqle

worrywart – at 21:31

From the korean article 20:21 Hendri (21) and Gilang (9) were the lastest victims to test positive for the virus”.. the names sound familiar but we have not heard about anybody testing positive for a while??

LauraBat 21:54

I have to second Annie’s comment on having a summary - I have been away for two weeks and this post is tough to follow. But I do appreciate all the work you guys have put in tacking this. So much for still being relaxed from my vacation!

Okieman – at 22:32

News

Here is another long article from a Bandung Newspaper. Some addional tidbits of info if you care to wade through the toggletext translation.

The chicken from Cikelet Diselundupkan Garut, (HOMEWORK).- the government

Determination of the Garut Regency to stem expanded him penyakin Avian influenza (AI) could fail. The virus H5N1 from Cikelet was worried will spread to the other subdistrict and increased the row of casualties of the bird flu virus.

Apart from still many wandering poultries in Cikelet, also still was the smuggling of the poultry from Cikelet outside. As proof, on Friday night (25/8), the official from the Handling Command Post of headquartered Bird Flu in Kec. Cikelet succeeded in thwarting smuggling efforts at least 27 chickens from Cikelet that will be brought went out Cikelet. The official then succeeded in catching two perpetrator of the smuggling namely Ramdan (52) and Syaiful (45). Both of them the inhabitants of the Village Cibolang the Simpang Kec Village. Cisurupan, Garut.

According to the Sub-district Head Cikelet Drs. Jujun Juhana, on Saturday (26/8), after succeeding in being pacified, this poultry was at once destroyed in the page of the Kec office. Cikelet. “His two perpetrators were given by the briefing that during at this time the chicken could not from Cikelet go out, like that also was the reverse,” he said. Was lucky, the official so thorough supervised each vehicle that went out entered Cikelet. If careless, AI could increasingly spread. The basin car was open brought the chicken from the Gambir Sand Village, the Cigadog Village, Kec Cikelet. When passing by, the official of the command post could stop. However the car continued to progress. The official then contacted police so as to be able to be pacified.

The chickens will be brought to the Garut City. “The two people claimed to be the port.” They also did not know the chicken was from Cikelet isolated, said the sub-district head. However that had made Jujun startled, since the Garut Regent of H. Agus Supriadi isolated the chicken from Cikelet, the two ports succeeded in selling the poultry from Cikelet to several markets in several places in Garut. In fact, beforehand, the Garut Regent said that the poultry from the Kec territory. Cikelet till several months in the future might not be brought went out. Received by information in several villages in Kec. Cikelet evidently still many poultries roamed about. The fact startling because of being instructed to be destroyed. “I knew, many citizens who hid his poultry when having the official came to ask his chicken to be destroyed,” said the Blessing,

The pessimist dikendalikan

The government determination controlled the forum for bird flu in Indonesia during 2008, was difficult to be reached. That, according to Pelaksana Harian Breakingprep Komisi Nasional Pengendalian Breakingprep Flu Burung Vice Chairman and Preparedness of the influenza Pandemic, Dr. Tri Satya the Daughter Naipospos, because from the aspect of the budget and the program direction as well as the policy of politics that unclear. According to Tri, the nonexistence of the holder’s seriousness of the policy, made the difficulty overcome bird flu in Indonesia.

The government, according to Tri, was seen just so-so faced this threat. ”Presiden Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono had not suggested firmly to the community what happened from the case of the flu attack burung,” he said. After control discussions of bird flu in Jakarta, on Saturday (26/8), Tri said, we must prepare SOUP (standard operating procedure) faced this pandemic. “Don’t happened as in the case of the case of the tsunami, we were not ready.” Supposing that like the tsunami, bird flu attacked widely and the arrival suddenly like the tsunami, we were not ready, all of them were destroyed, said he. From the aspect of the budget that was prepared in 2007 of Rp 108 billion to handle bird flu, according to Tri, that was too small.

Moreover, the budget was not focussed overcame bird flu, but all the kinds of the animal illness. The insignificance of the budget increasingly increased the problem of the control of bird flu. That more worrying, said Tri, uptil now his action plan not yet clear, the mapping was not yet complete, the government political will also not all that.

Tri Satya also appealed to various national companies and the multinational that were touching with the livestock business and the poultry, to be responsible overcame this plague. The food company was ready saji must have the social response by taking part in helping the handling of bird flu. The National commission the Control of Bird Flu will take them by the hand, so that they show his social responsibility towards the plague of bird flu.

”Jangan wanted to look for the profit, the problem of bird flu must be also paid attention to. They must count how many of their losses, if bird flu spread and ungas-poultry must be destroyed and the community was banned mengonsumsi or frightened mengonsumsi meat ayam,” Tri’s words.

The Her

condition The condition for the patient Her (21) that still was treated in RSHS Bandung, on last Saturday, continued to improve. The chairman Tim the Control of Bird Flu of RSHS Bandung, Dr. Hadi Jusuf, Sp. P. D-KPTI said, results of the PCR testing (polymerase chain reaction) first Her showed the bird flu negative. “But we must be still being waiting produced by PCR second and third.” So, the patient still could not be stated by the negative. The possibility of results tomorrow (the day this-red), he said, on Saturday (26/8). If these results were negative, he hoped the patient Tosin and Her could be returned with Tuesday (29/8) came. However, his assurance was still being waiting for the further condition. Tosin and Her was two from six patients suspect bird flu from Kab. Garut that was reconciled to RSHS Bandung.

Four other patients namely Santi (8), Isma (5), Kuraesin (32) and Osin has been stated by the bird flu negative and was returned. The Garut regency was the territory in West Java with the assumption of the case of bird flu enough namely 18 people. This case happened in the Cikelet Village and the Cigadog Kec Village. Cikelet.

From 18 cases, 5 people died. Three people were stated positive (Umar, Ai Siti the message and Euis Lina) including two people who died. From these cases, 3 including dying without could be taken the sample (the Nun, the Lamp, and Sardi). Six other was reconciled to RSHS. Now six other could be treated in RSU Dr. Slamet Garut.

http://www.pikiran-rakyat.com/cetak/2006/082006/27/0104.htm

pugmom – at 22:42

Commonground and Anon_YYZ and Influentia2: Commonground, I don’t know how to post in colors. Is it hard on this forum? Anon, thanx for your ideas and smarts and for keeping us straight on our geography. Influentia2, I went ahead and signed you up for east Java (see the sign-up sheet I made on the new thread.) Now we need a few more takers. If no takers, I can also sign up for the other areas—no problem. But I will wait to see if anyone wants to take them. Commonground, how did the preferences work for you on Google? I see what you mean about needing to doublespace, Commonground, or our writing all sticks together in a ball!

Michelle in OK – at 23:04

I’m back, although lightning just blinked my computer off.

If anyone has extra information on an individual, such as “tested negative”, I can easily add that. I’m not retyping the lists each time. I just sort my Excel database by location, delete unwanted columns, and paste in the information it contains. Once the information is there, no extra work is involved.

I’ve added the negatives I found. (Will include Herman and Tosin from the article posted by Okieman even though testing further.) I’ve also picked up Kuraisen, Osin, Ismawati, Santi, Yana, and Gilang (14) as negative. If I’ve missed any, please let me know.

The only restriction is if we type too much on one person, the line-wrap makes the summary difficult to comprehend.

Anon-YYZ at 21:21, I will leave Lasting Goddess (6) as Tulungagung, E. Java since “Karangregjo” shows up in four different locations on this MapQuest. (I’m trying to copy your methodology, so if I need to change something, just let me know.)

Michelle in OK – at 23:20

The tally is now 56 total after adding the following: Rangga (6 months), Aris (10), Pipit (6), Burhan (38), Hendra (21), and Gilang (9) from subsequently posted articles. I’m not sure exactly where the last two are, so I’ve labeled them simply Garut, W. Java (which is I think in common with Cikelet.)

pugmom – at 23:23

Michelle—your spreadsheet you did at 17:24 is perfect. I think we should all follow it exactly when we add to it, as it really simplifies the data. We each can post our 2 cents using the same format. Do you think we will get 5 contributors??? Let us know if you come up with any simpler ideas or ways of doing things. (Also, once we have posted our info, will you then be able to re-insert it easily on your spreadsheet, without typing, and then repost it? I think that is what you were saying.) I don’t want this turning into a huge nightmare for you.

Michelle in OK – at 23:38

pugmom, Yes, I simply copy names and locations into my spreadsheet and then repost it sorted. The spreadsheet is actually maintained by dates. Color is the only thing that takes a significant amount of time, so I may need to drop the red highlights if I post it very often.

Please be aware that the line “MASS TAMIFLU DISTRIBUTION” distorts the individual count for Cikelet. I can either leave it or remove it based on preferences. Also, if I group suspects, the counts by location are distorted. However, the overall # I post takes these things into consideration.

pugmom – at 23:46

Michelle—I vote to ditch the Tamiflu reference. We should operate on the KISS principle.

Orlandopreppie – at 23:48

I have been reading all of the posts with great interest. I’ve had my concentration split recently as school has been in session for a month down here and I’m a teacher, but I’m getting it together now. I’d be interested in helping if you need an extra hand. I’ll go back and re-read all posts to catch up on procedures and can work whatever region you need help with.

pugmom – at 23:53

Orlandopreppie—wonderful news for all of us. Go to the new Indo summary topic, go to sign-up sheet and pick which area you would like. So glad to have your help!

27 August 2006

Orlandopreppie – at 00:01

I’ll head there now. By the way, how does a 3 month old baby get BF if it’s NOT human to human? I doubt they let chickens walk over a baby, even in Indonesia.

Influentia2 – at 00:26

Orlandopreppie

I saw you are taking Jakarta?

There is a link for Indo papers at 16:30. I have been using it for awhile. Not all of them work. I also have other links that I have found. I will post them if someone else would like to see them. You will need the translator too if you don’t already have one. Not all of them are in English.

I will help anyone if I can, been doing this for awhile.

Warning though my geography needs improvement.

Prepping Gal – at 00:37

Oh how I wish I could understand these posts.Its probably my own fault because I don’t have the patience. Sorry about that but can someone please summarize “very briefly” what is happening right now in Indonesia. I can’t make any sense of it all. Sorry again.

Dude – at 00:49

If you want to use the FTP site to upload/download a copy of the excel spreadsheet summary (then anyone can download the file or you can send it to others for input etc.) or need an email box to communicate with one another, just let me know on the thread and I will create a box for you with your handle. The initial password will be wiki123 and then you change it to keep it confidential. dudeatsingtomeohmuse.com Hope this helps in some way you can think of. Great work and thank you all! We currently have six projects in the works ahead of this: I am now talking with about setting up an SQL database with the parameters that matter. It will, when done, have an input page and anyone can add or correct data and do sorts, lists etc. This will take some time because we have to know what fields to create, setup relationships, write the code, and design the front end. But we have made a commitment to do this. Just give us time. I hope we catch a break in this slide off a cliff and have some time. I will keep you all posted. It is nice to have a family member who is a DBMS programmer! Another designs web sites! And we host them…grin. I just wish we did not have to work to pay the bills right now. I would love to tell them to put this to the top of the list. This is not going to replace what you do, but give us a way to make connections and analyze this data.

Oremus – at 00:50

Continue in new thread:

Indonesia Outbreak III

pugmom – at 00:55

hi PreppingGal!--We are now trying to do complete summaries every 3 days and we are going to be sharing the research. For the latest update on the cumulatives go to the thread “Indonesia Outbreak Summaries”. The briefest thing we can all say about Indonesia is that there are over 50 suspected or confirmed cases in over 5 different areas spread all over Indonesia. Some are members within families. Most occurred in a village called Cikelet. Most of us think these fit the definition of “clusters” although the WHO is protesting the use of that word. In a nutshell, there has been a rapid increase in both chicken deaths and human infections. Whether it will be confirmed H2H or not, well, that is a hot potato. Good luck catching up!

Closed and Continued - Bronco Bill – at 00:57

Closed and continued [[http://www.fluwikie2.com/pmwiki.php?n=Forum.IndonesiaOutbreakIII|here

Closed and Continued - Bronco Bill – at 00:57

Closed and continued here

Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.IndonesiaOutbreakII
Page last modified on August 16, 2007, at 03:07 PM