Continued from here
I posted to the news thread the 60M case in cikalong (?) on the news thread. Also commented that the onset and severity of symptoms is very rapid if this man’s chickens only died 2 days prior to his admission to hospital …
Dictionary
everyone please add to the list
districts = kabupaten
sub-districts = kecamatan
ayam = chicken
ekor = tails
terjankit = infected
Fatimah = female
TK = Taman kanak-kanak = Kindergarten
Michelle in OK - CE is posting Yana as being released 8/23.
Here’s a list of Released (to keep track in case they come back):
Cikelet, W. Java
##Santi(6)
Tulungagung, E. Java
Lasting Goddess TK Sukowiyono (6)
Kendari, SE Sulawesi
##Siblings hospitalized: Andika (1.5)
mammypoko and AnnieB - I believe the 60(M) named “Pidi” is the same as “Direct” at pugmom’s posting at 20:23 in the prior thread. Both Cikelet, both 10 chickens, both Slamet hospital. If this is incorrect, please discuss further.
AnnieB, Thanks for your news summaries also. They are very helpful (and I admire the color as it is very time consuming).
mammypoko - Your clear summaries in the prior Indonesian threads, along with Milo’s timelines, were fantastic.
From the last Summary, I’m deleting the student TK Sukowinoyo. Based on the discussion in the prior thread, I think that is referring to the Lasting Goddess (6). I think I assigned the location in error. If someone disagrees with this, please let me know.
With all of the suspect cases etc. in Indonesia, I think it is interesting that the WHO this morning has put on their site protocol for definitions of human H5N1..I’m pretty sure that all of the activity in Indonesia is the reason for this. Please read. http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/guidelines/case_definition2006_08_29/en/index.html link
WHO case definitions for human infections with influenza A(H5N1) virus
29 August 2006
Background
Prompt and accurate reporting of H5N1 influenza cases to WHO is the cornerstone for monitoring both the global evolution of this disease and the corresponding risk that a pandemic virus might emerge. In collaboration with several partners, WHO has developed standardized case definitions to facilitate:
1. Reporting and classification of human cases of H5N1 infection by national and international health authorities.
2. Standardization of language for communication purposes.
3. Comparability of data across time and geographical areas.
sorry, screwed the link up…
re: CC 5:03 Isn’t “Fatima” a feminine given name in Islamic countries? I suppose it could have come to mean “a woman” in a given Islamic culture, just a “Shiela” has come to mean a woman in Aussie slang. Maybe Mammypoko can help on this point.
Gary - at 10:00 - you may be right. I had a notation so I put it in there. Funny, you should use the name Sheila as an example. That’s my name.
After re-reading the WHO protocol, it seems to me that they will have to consider many of the suspect cases in Indonesia as probable H5N1 cases now…I imagine that they will post an update of the situation in Indonesia soon. Perhaps they are considering raising the Pandemic level?
Positively Bird Flu, Thousands Of chickens were destroyed in Kediri
Kediri (Antara News) - At Least 1. 700 chickens belonging to Hariyanto, a chicken breeder in the Srikaton Village, the Ringinrejo Subdistrict, the Kediri Regency, East Java, was destroyed after his kept livestock was stated positive was affected by the bird flu virus. “Currently I already did not have the chicken again, because apart from being destroyed, beforehand already many that died,” said Harianto, on Tuesday. Beforehand he had 2. 300 chickens Talk To, but since last week his 730 chickens died suddenly. “When the chicken was still dying 30 tails, one chicken carcass was brought by me to the veterinary surgeon, he said died because of being affected penyakkit the appendix,” he said. However when his chicken death rate has reached 700 tails more, he immediately received the assurance from the Animal Service the Kediri Regency, that his property chicken positive was affected by the bird flu virus. “After that I was ordered to destroy 1.” 700 chickens that still was remaining, he said I will be given the compensation fund that up until now I wait for, he said. He suspected the chicken of discussing his property tertular from the thoroughbred chicken belonging to local villagers that beforehand also many that died. Apart from being promised got the fund of extermination compensation, Harianto got three litre the liquid disenfektan to be sprayed all through his part of the property chicken coop. “In fact in accordance with the rule when the case of bird flu, necessarily happening spraying disinfektan was in the radius one kilometre,” he said added.// (more at site)
Snowhound1 – at 09:33
Under the new protocol, some of the patients in Karo last month tested positive for Influenza A would have been classified as probable instead of simply negative. Likewise with some recent cases in Thailand.
Notables:
Suspected:
d. Close contact with a confirmed H5N1 infected animal other than poultry or wild birds (e.g. cat or pig);
Probable Notify WHO:
b. positive laboratory confirmation of an influenza A infection but insufficient laboratory evidence for H5N1 infection.
Confirmed H5N1 case (notify WHO)
c. A fourfold or greater rise in neutralization antibody titer for H5N1 based on testing of an acute serum specimen (collected 7 days or less after symptom onset) and a convalescent serum specimen. The convalescent neutralizing antibody titer must also be 1:80 or higher;
d. A microneutralization antibody titer for H5N1 of 1:80 or greater in a single serum specimen collected at day 14 or later after symptom onset and a positive result using a different serological assay, for example, a horse red blood cell haemagglutination inhibition titer of 1:160 or greater or an H5-specific western blot positive result.
Does anyone know if Confirmed c. or d. are new?
ANON-YYZ- I really don’t understand what the significance of everything is in the WHO protocol, but I think that it is significant. I posted it on the news thread as well, and was hoping that Monotreme would see it and comment. Maybe if GraceRN is on, or someone else that could comment. I have been trying to figure out if it increases the WHO parameters of upping the threat level, or not. I will be very interested to read the next WHO update from Indonesia, to see if they are putting a positive spin on things there. I think what has been done by WHO is upping the “probable” cases significantly and wonder why they would want to do this. There must be some reasons and ramifications for doing this now. IMHO
Re the name Fatimah. I remember on an earlier thread that a machine translation referred to someone named Fatimah as a “he.” Someone then posted that Fatimah is a woman’s name and I wonder if that would explain Commonground’s notation that Fatimah=woman.
Thoroughbred vs. nonpedigreed chickens - Should that make a difference? I have noticed several times that they mention it. In fact, there was one article on MetroTV (about the prices fetched by chickens on the market) that was very ambiguous about this, I wondered whether the people there seem to make a difference/have been surprised by which chickens get sick and/or customers wanting to buy one sort rather than the other. Can’t put my finger on it. Can anyone here?
I don’t think there *is* a feminine pronoun in Indonesian (or if there is, Toggletext doesn’t know about it). I toggletext’d “She went to her room” and it translated as “Dia pergi ke kamarnya.” I translated back to English: “He went to his room.” No wonder it’s confusing!
FrenchieGirl – at 11:26
For example Thoroughbred (may = Fighting Cock?) is worth a lot more money, and will be hidden from view when the officials come into a village to try to cull all chicken?
Not sure if you’ve got this: Three patients suspect bird flu was since last Monday (28/8)
Three patients suspect bird flu was since last Monday (28/8) treated in special space this illness in the South-East Sulawesi regional Public Hospital (RSUD South-East Sulawesi) in Kendari. The three patients were Mutmaina (1.5 years), Haris Purwanto (5 years), and Sri the Well-being (2 years). They he the citizen Street Saranani, the Korumba Subdistrict, the Kendari City, South-East Sulawesi. According to the hospital side, the three patients were treated in special space the patient’s isolation suspect bird flu because suffered hot high, breathless, and coughs. Everything around their house had the chicken that died suddenly. In the Palu City, Central Sulawesi, one hundred people of the team of the control of bird flu carried out mass spraying. This step was instructed directly by the Palu Mayor, Rusdi Mastura, to prevent the spreading of the bird flu virus in this area. The location of spraying in part in the Palu Subdistrict West that the spreading danger of bird flu. This action was welcomed positive the citizen nsetempat. The case of first bird flu was found in Palu on August 24 ailam. Dozens of the citizen’s livestock in Kamonji, Palu West, was found died suddenly. At this time, the spreading of the bird flu virus arrived at Palu East and Palu South.
fatima was mohammad’s wife,if i remember correctly.it is indeed a popular feminine name in islamic countries.
CG: these (in Kendari, SE Sulawesi) may be 3 new patients (2 of the ages are the same as we have already reported, but the names are different). I am inclined to think these are new. Thanx for the heads-up, I will add them to my list with question marks. Also, name alert. I have been getting confused between Kediri and Kendari. Kediri is a city in East Java and Kendari is a city in SE Sulawesi—maybe someone else has had this confusion. About the WHO criteria: it seems to me they have really lowered the bar, so to speak. Now, all that is needed is exposure + pneumonia to make someone a probable. That really broadens the playing field. Also Michelle: “Pidi” is “Direct”. I saw it in my readings last night. Thanx for the frequent summary updates—it is helping everyone keep their info organized and accurate. Is there any way we, or the moderator, can keep the Indo summary cases at the top of the forum topic list???
Snowhound1 – at 10:15 “After re-reading the WHO protocol, it seems to me that they will have to consider many of the suspect cases in Indonesia as probable H5N1 cases now…I imagine that they will post an update of the situation in Indonesia soon. Perhaps they are considering raising the Pandemic level?”
Not likely, IMHO.
They will raise the pandemic level when it is so undeniable that everyone else on this planet agrees we are at a higher level.
The WHO are followers, not leaders. They budge when everyone else is pushing so hard they can no longer stand on their feet.
This is worrisome. It sounds like the are worried about potentail H2H from close contact with suspected, probable, or confirmed H5N1 cases.
From WHO case definitions for human infections with influenza A(H5N1) virus
29 August 2006
Suspected H5N1 case
A person presenting with unexplained acute lower respiratory illness with fever (>38 ºC ) and cough, shortness of breath or difficulty breathing.
AND
One or more of the following exposures in the 7 days prior to symptom onset:
a. Close contact (within 1 metre) with a person (e.g. caring for, speaking with, or touching) who is a suspected, probable, or confirmed H5N1 case;…………….
ANON-YYZ – at 11:02
Desert Dan – at 13:46
The WHO seems to have broadened the definition of ‘suspected’ cases but not requiring reporting to the WHO, and then added the ‘positive Influenza A’ as a condition for ‘probable’.
It’s also an acknowledgment that some false negatives (tests) may happen, that otherwise satisfies ‘confirmed c or d’.
Cikelet, West Java: Ai Siti Fatimah reported dead. 8–29–06
Liputan6.com, Garut: the Handling of the bird flu illness must as immediately as possible because could increase fast and deadly not less than a week…..
‘’‘In the Ai Siti Fatimah case, the doctor could not at once know the sign of bird flu. The Garut citizen, West Java, this was reconciled to the hospital from the community health centre in the critical condition. His life was not helped.’‘’….
yeah, all you need for a probable is exposure+pneumonia OR exposure+lab confirmed Flu A
pugman at 13:18 and everyone else….Here is a site I went to last night for maps. I zoomed in on my areas, and I printed several out. The closer you zoom, the more villages/sub-districts/regencies, whatever, you get. Now, I feel a little more confident….helps to know these things.
Pugman, when I saw that article I figured I would post it, just in case it didn’t get picked up. I think that site you gave me yesterday is the equivalent to a “News Now” in Indonesia. (the Antara site).
So unless Michelle doesn’t have an update, I only post updated info in the summary, right?
pugmom – at 13:56
The caption next to the Official on TV
“The Health Minister concerned because not all the doctors knew the sign of bird flu. The citizen who suffered flu after having the poultry near the house that died suddenly was appealed to immediately checked to the doctor.”
The time lag between chicken outbreak and reported human cases has shorted to as little as 1 day. If this is not easier B2H, I don’t know what is.
ANON-YYZ – at 14:14
Sorry,
‘shorted’ should be ‘shortened’.
CG—well, Michelle seems to like the updates regularly here on this thread, in bold. She also liked that I put in bold the city/region. If we post all that we find, even other people’s regions, she said she could pick them up easily and we could forego our “summaries.” At least that is how I am reading what she wants. I try to write it with Michelle in mind, ie highlighting items so that she can readily pick things out. It seems to help her alot. She seems to be doing an update every day (yesterday, 2), so I think she wants us to post our updates, or ANY revealing articles, here on this thread. Anon—the article really blamed the doc for not knowing how to daignose BF—seemed to blame him for the poor man’s death. I am sensing panic in all the articles I have read today.
pugmom – at 14:54
Story toggletext below:
Liputan6.com, Garut: the Handling of the bird flu illness must as immediately as possible because could increase fast and deadly not less than a week. However, evidently not all the doctors could at once know the sign of bird flu. Health Minister Siti Fadilah Supari regretted this condition. “It should be that his doctor must know [the sign of bird flu], “ said Siti in Jakarta, on Monday (28/8).
Siti also appealed to the official of livestock breeding and the health of the service during immediately to inform the area that was found had the poultry died suddenly to the doctors in a radius of one kilometre. The community that suffered the sign of flu after having the poultry died suddenly in his territory it was suggested immediately memeriksakan (memeriksa kan – checked for) himself. This could help the doctor during immediately to diagnose the bird flu patient.
In the Ai Siti Fatimah case, the doctor could not at once know the sign of bird flu. The Garut citizen, West Java, this was reconciled to the hospital from the community health centre in the critical condition. His life was not helped.
“It should be that “his doctor must know [the sign of bird flu]”
means:
The doctor must know of the patient to see the sign of the bird flu, IMHO, based on the context of the whole story.
So will the WHO have a chart for probable cases? How many would that be? How would that change the urgency for preparation for a pandemic?
Ruth,
According to WHO guidelines for global surveillance of influenza A/H5
“Only information regarding confirmed cases will be made available in the public domain.”
I have not seen any document that overturned that policy.
The latest document is only giving out disease definition for standardization purposes, which is something that should have been done a long time ago. They added notification for probable cases, but nothing has changed as for disclosure.
Commonground at 14:03… great map! I didn’t realize that SE Sulawesi is about halfway between the West Java area and the Papau New Guinea area Okieman has posted about.
I apologize if this has been posted already (and I wasn’t sure which thread to place it on), but here is an interesting weblog by an individual who is on the ground in Indonesia. He even interviewed Jones Ginting. Hope this works: http://tinyurl.com/kdvlm
So Anon_22…Do you think all of the information from Indonesia about “suspected” cases (which now seem like they would be “probable” according to the new guidelines), those being treated, etc. will “dry” up now or do you foresee a continuance of the current reporting in this regard? I’m still somewhat amazed that there has been no mention of positive or negative results in all of these suspected cases in many days…Any hypothesis you would like to put forth?
Michelle in OK - at 17:26….and I didn’t realize S. Sumutra was so BIG!! Maybe I just zoomed in one too many times……. :-)
Snowhound1
“So Anon_22…Do you think all of the information from Indonesia about “suspected” cases (which now seem like they would be “probable” according to the new guidelines), those being treated, etc. will “dry” up now or do you foresee a continuance of the current reporting in this regard? I’m still somewhat amazed that there has been no mention of positive or negative results in all of these suspected cases in many days…Any hypothesis you would like to put forth?”
What we know of suspected cases we are getting only from the media. WHO does not routinely comment on them. So I don’t expect anything to be different as far as public disclosure from the WHO is concerned. As for positives or negatives, WHO only reports positives that are formally reported to them. If you read all the situation updates, they always start with “the Ministry of Health of such and such country…”. Negatives are announced by governments and reported in the media, if at all.
So our army of volunteers chasing down leads is the only way we can keep any decent tally of suspected cases, IMHO. Hence even more appreciation to everyone doing this.
When I told people how folks on this forum was following the Karo cluster in realtime, I’ve had big-name scientists getting excited about that and saying they were impressed. I assume that the next time they get worried about the news, they will check our forum.
Nobody gets any information unless you are directly in the loop, ie directly working within the country concerned or the reference labs, in which case confidentiality issues prevent you from telling anyone.
So for those who are working on getting accurate news and reporting them here, remember that now there are senior scientists using your information as well as moms and pops. They want to stay current like everyone else, whether or not the information has an immediate bearing on their work.
Another reason why I say:
We are it, folks.
Keep up the good work. We all have a lot to offer, and it’s worth it.
Five sick in Sulawesi… I could not find the original article in the Jakarta Post.
http://ochansangadji.blogspot.com/2006/08/five-sick-as-mayor-orders-bird-cull.html
excerpt:
Five sick as mayor orders bird cull Ruslan Sangadji The Jakarta Post Central, Sulawesi
The mayor of Palu is appealing to bird owners to cull all poultry in the city to prevent a likely epidemic after five suspected human cases of the virus in the area.
However, Rusdy Mastura said the city did not have enough money to compensate farmers for their birds.
Urging all residents in Palu who own poultry to report to the Bird Flu Epidemic Eradication office, Rusdy called for a mass cull of all birds.
“We have asked poultry farmers to destroy their birds voluntarily. We have also informed them that we don’t have the funds to compensate them for all the birds destroyed,” said Rusdy.
Rusdy made the appeal Monday after dozens of chickens died rapidly over three consecutive days in Datu Pamusu, West Palu.
Five people suspected of contracting the virus are being treated at Palu’s Undata Hospital.
“They have not been positively tested as having bird flu, since their blood samples are still being tested,” he said.
excerpt: A week 750 chickens died Mendadak
Banyuwangi
-Circle the NON-GOVERNMENTAL ORGANISATION that was bundled into the Indonesian Earthquake, spread out the campaign anti the spreading of bird flu yesterday. With mengandeng the government of the Village (Pemdes) Blambangan, the Muncar Subdistrict, they held spraying to the chicken coop belonging to the local citizen. Participants in the action also carried the banner and the poster that contained the invitation to live healthy by combatting the bird flu illness, the NON-GOVERNMENTAL ORGANISATION’s activists also spread the brochure for the motor driver and the car in the Blambangan Village highway and in the intersection of the Muncar city. The brochure that was spread contained the danger and the characteristics of the chicken that was attacked by the illness that was caused by the virus Avian influenza (AI) this. “Let’s combat bird flu, for our health together,” exclaimed one of the NON-GOVERNMENTAL ORGANISATION’s members through meghaphone. The village head (Kades) Blambangan, Muncar, H Mohamad Supiyat when being found this newspaper disela-gap the campaign anti this bird flu illness said, his village including the territory that very serious was attacked by the bird flu illness. The “citizen currently many that restless, bird flu increasingly me violent,” he said.
Interesting to me that one sentence translated perfect English, I will let you pick this one apart:)
Excerpt:
LAMONGAN - Spraying disinfektan against chickens that were sent to the Lamongan territory again was increased.This action was carried out following the increase in the spreading of bird flu in several areas, including Surabaya.”This spraying was carried out in the border of the Lamongan territory entrance, the” headword “of the” fisheries” Service, Marine, and Livestock Breeding (PKP) Lamongan Sincere Wise to the Bojonegoro Radar yesterday.According to him, uptil now many sendings of the chicken to Lamongan from various areas, like Blitar, Kediri, and Mojokerto.Chickens that were sent made use of the wheel vehicle four this was worried was affected by the bird flu virus that could spread in the Lamongan territory.
Excerpt:
“Up until today (yesterday, Red) was not yet found by the existence of the case of bird flu in Lamongan.” ‘’‘Therefore, must be done by the anticipation action as early as possible, everything in the other area began to happen the increase in the spreading of bird flu, he explained. Wise also said, this anticipatory action was important because not again old entered the rainy season. “When the rainy season, the spreading of the virus, including the bird flu virus, increasingly will be easy and fast,” obviously him.’‘’ According to Wise, the poultry population could in Lamongan descend drastic after being found by 526 birds puyuh that died suddenly and positive was attacked by bird flu to last March 29.
Excerpt:
He mentioned, for the chicken talked to his population reached 3.5 million tails and the thoroughbred chicken around 1 million tails.
Excerpt:
East Java Need Rp2,3 billion To overcome Surabaya Bird Flu, on August 29:
The East Java Livestock Breeding Service put forward anggara as big as Rp2,3 billion to deal with the spreading of the bird flu virus that currently again attacks several areas in East Java. The budget as big as that was put forward by the East Java Livestock Breeding Service through the Change in the Budget of Acceptance and the regional Expenses (PAPBD) in 2006, that now is discussed in DPRD East Java. “The budget to help several regencies/the city that still was experiencing the lack of equipment.” This budget submission was in accordance with the recommendation from the B Commission, the headword of the livestock breeding Service East Java Sigit Hanggono to the reporter in Surabaya, on Tuesday. The number of budgets that was put forward by the East Java Livestock Breeding Service higher compared with last year that as big as Rp1,1 billion. This rise, said Sigit, in line with increasingly the number of affected livestock the AI virus.
Influentia2--do you happen to know when the official start of the rainy season is in Indo?? I keep reading articles too where they express great concern over the fact that the rains are coming and disease may increase.
Thankyou Sarah for that article. It was dated today, so is worrisome. We have an old list for Sulawesi with as many as 9 cases and I added 3 today from an article. Whether the ones you reported on are addtional or not remains to be seen. Hopefully more will leak out.
Took me literally a half hour to find this place. This maternity hospital has nothing to do with the article. It just verifies the location of Kesehatan. Article Below from PonyGirl @ Flutrakers:
Hospital : Yayasan Pemeliharaan Kesehatan Maternity Hospital Gereja Theresia St. 22 Gondangdia Village, Menteng Central Jakarta City 10350
Six citizens was expected Terindikasi Burung [Central Jakarta City]
Flu (30 Aug 2006, 6 x, printed, Comment) MAROS — [six citizens were neighbours in Street.Dr Ratulangi, behind the District Court’s Maros Office, the Solojirang Environment, the Turikale District, Maros was taken the sample of his blood after being expected terindikasi was attacked by bird flu, on Tuesday August 29 yesterday.[/b]
The six citizens were their respective Jaelani, 36 years, Nursari, 46 years, Saiful, 28 years, Hernan, 21 years, and Dg Sallang, 65 years. The sample of their blood was taken by the official of the Maros Health of the Service with the official of the Aliritengngae Community Health Centre.
The taking of the sample of the blood was based on the report on the wife Jaelani, Kartini, 28 years, to Lance’s survey of the Alritengngae Community Health Centre, A Rasnawati SKM M. Cash was about the flu illness that was suffered by his husband accompanied by the fever, and coughs.
Just was learnt, last Thursday August 24, Jaelani burnt and buried several tails of his chicken that died suddenly behind his house.
Further on Saturday August 26, the wife Jaelani reported to the community health centre. The Aliritengngae community health centre was supported by the Head of Lance’s survey of the local Health Service, Andi Ali Reza immediately inspected the location.
The two medical officials then indicated if the citizen that was sick that was expected terjangkit the bird flu illness so as immediately contacted the Marine fisheries Service and Maros Livestock Breeding.
In the meantime, the Head of the Marine Field and Maros Livestock Breeding of Livestock Breeding of the fisheries Service, Ir A Hafid Amazon that was contacted said took two chickens around the residence of the six citizens. One tail in the situation still was living and an other has died to be researched in the Big Veteriner Hall (BB-Vet).
“We indicated if the chicken that died this was attacked by bird flu.” But, results could be known after results of the inspection of BB-Vet, in time in the next two days went out, he said.
Whereas the Head of Lance’s survey, Andi Ali Reza, said, if the sample of blood of the six citizens was sent to the centre and was waiting for results. “We were waiting for results in a forthcoming week.” Whereas the six citizens, has been given Tamiflu medicine, vitamins B.Com, and antibiotik, he stated.
You will all have to excuse me. Now I can’t find Kesehatan anywhere in the above article. I’m going to go to bed now……Don’t know where this article is from……..
CG—the article states Central Jakarta City. This is the worse news—hitting a huge population center like Jakarta, esp if it isn’t an isolated case. It came out of Cikelet and made a bee-line for Jakarta, everyone’s worse nightmare. I am off to try to find the original article. PS—CG—I love that map!
Regarding Post at 20:0l - It’s in South Sulawesi.
Pugmom - at 20:25, I put “central Jakarta City” in brackets, those were my words. Not the articles words. That is wrong info.
This is the biological hazard alert that RSOE puts out. It is dated 8–27–06. Note areas in bold—they don’t much relate to our summary, but I haven’t studied it in detail yet. http://tinyurl.com/o32ew
DESCRIPTION Indonesia’s Garut district of West Java province will soon conduct poultry depopulation by culling some 2,000 fowls in order to prevent the spread of bird flu in the region. The plan to mass cull fowls was made after the discovery of several chickens which tested positive for the avian influenza virus in the villages of Cigadong and Cijambe, Antara news agency on Saturday quoted local Animal Husbandry Service Head Andi Rachmat as saying. He said that the mass culling of poultry in the district would be conducted on Sunday and Monday. The planned culling of 2,000 fowls would follow the previous ones which involved 3,528 birds, so that the total number of fowls to have been killed would reach 5,528, Andi said. He said the depopulation would be followed by vaccinations of 70,000 fowls with 70,000 doses of vaccine. Plans had been made to provide vaccine for 300,000 fowls in Garut. Scores of humans suspected of being infected with bird flu were discovered in Garut recently. Nine cases were reported last week. Two of them, a 17-year old man identified as U and a girl identified as ASA (9) (died) were said to be positive bird flu virus carriers. Two other patients, I (5) and S (6) were said tested negative but they were still hospitalized at Hasan Sadikin Hospital in Bandung, West Java provincial capital. Four other suspects, a man initialed M (20), a women initialed EL (35), a girl R (13) and a boy S (4) have died before health official were able to take the sample of their blood. Until now a total of 62 bird flu cases have been confirmed in Indonesia and 47 of them had died, but none of the deaths was caused by having been infected with the virus by a fellow human being, officials said.
Hi Pugmom, I wanted to wait for you to come back and make sure everything was o.k. with my post. Regarding the above post at 20:38, I saw it earlier and checked it against our summary. We have all the cases - and much much more.
Here’s a reprint of the original article. It doesn’t say Jakarta. Now we have to find where these places are. http://tinyurl.com/nceus
Six citizens was expected Terindikasi Burung Flu (30 Aug 2006, 12 x, printed, Comment) MAROS — six citizens were neighbours in Street. Dr Ratulangi, behind the District Court’s Maros Office, the Solojirang Environment, the Turikale District, Maros was taken the sample of his blood after being expected terindikasi was attacked by bird flu, on Tuesday August 29 yesterday. The six citizens were their respective Jaelani, 36 years, Nursari, 46 years, Saiful, 28 years, Hernan, 21 years, and Dg Sallang, 65 years. The sample of their blood was taken by the official of the Maros Health of the Service with the official of the Aliritengngae Community Health Centre. The taking of the sample of the blood was based on the report on the wife Jaelani, Kartini, 28 years, to Lance’s survey of the Alritengngae Community Health Centre, A Rasnawati SKM M. Cash was about the flu illness that was suffered by his husband accompanied by the fever, and coughs. Just was learnt, last Thursday August 24, Jaelani burnt and buried several tails of his chicken that died suddenly behind his house. Further on Saturday August 26, the wife Jaelani reported to the community health centre. The Aliritengngae community health centre was supported by the Head of Lance’s survey of the local Health Service, Andi Ali Reza immediately inspected the location. The two medical officials then indicated if the citizen that was sick that was expected terjangkit the bird flu illness so as immediately contacted the Marine fisheries Service and Maros Livestock Breeding. In the meantime, the Head of the Marine Field and Maros Livestock Breeding of Livestock Breeding of the fisheries Service, Ir A Hafid Amazon that was contacted said took two chickens around the residence of the six citizens. One tail in the situation still was living and an other has died to be researched in the Big Veteriner Hall (BB-Vet). “We indicated if the chicken that died this was attacked by bird flu.” But, results could be known after results of the inspection of BB-Vet, in time in the next two days went out, he said. Whereas the Head of Lance’s survey, Andi Ali Reza, said, if the sample of blood of the six citizens was sent to the centre and was waiting for results. “We were waiting for results in a forthcoming week.” Whereas the six citizens, has been given Tamiflu medicine, vitamins B.Com, and
Re: “Six citizens was expected Terindikasi Burung [Central Jakarta City] six citizens were neighbours in Street”
6 suspected cases who are neighbors. Unkown how close-by neighbors are considered here ie 5 feet apart or 5 miles. It sounds like one of the victims wives reported his illness. Becoming more cognizant of potential H5N1 and reacting to it is in itself a good sign.
CG—Well, thank goodness it wasn’t Jakarta—better in South Sulawesi, I guess. So you cross-checked all those names. Boy, are you fast. When I first looked at it, I didn’t think the ages matched. So, if you are right, I can relax a little, but still, not good news out of Sulawesi. (I wonder if it is in a large town in Sulawesi???)
Michelle’s next summary is going to be interesting. I wonder what the new totals will be?
to commonground at 05:33,
sorry if i confused u earlier. Fatimah is the name of a person who’s a female.
perempuan = female laki-laki / lelaki = male RSU(Rumah Sakit Umum) = hospital kesehatan = health batuk = cough 100 ekor ayam = 100 chickens (the ekor is like a pre-noun & not really mean tails) ekor (on its own) = tail
let me know what other words u’d like translated
ok let’s try this again using bulleted points instead.
You folks are something. If we all survive this it will be in not small part to the efforts that Indo Group are putting forth.
I thank you all from the bottom of my heart.
found a web site with Indonesian maps-I’m ordering one to help make sense of this.
mamypoko thank you! what would be the context of using kesehatan?
mammypoko, could you double check the language in the article posted by pugmom at 13:56? We have interpreted the phrase translated as “His life was not helped” to mean that the individual died. Would you verify this before we show another death from Cikelet?
More word translations
Mamypoko: In the translations, they often say, he was hot, breathless, and heavy. Do you have any idea what symptom “heavy” refers to? Is it listlessness, or semi-coma? There seems to be a consistent “triad” of symptoms, before labs and xrays are done.
Michelle in OK at 21:59
means
[She was the Ai Siti Fatimah (9F) from Jojok Hamlet/village, died 8/15, tested + for H5N1.]
Michelle & all, thanks so much for keeping the summary, I know what a daunting task it is, esp. when even the indonesian articles are conflicting & inaccurate at times, let alone u guys having to understand machine translations. Kudos to u all!
Would it be possible to put translations/dictionary on the wiki side so we don’t misplace them as the thread expands?
I’ve just now been able to get on the ‘puter. I’ll scan this thread, the summary, and the news before I start looking for new items about Sulawesi so I don’t repeat anything. Today I bought a map of Indonesia with a semi-decent index, so I might be able to help with places.
To pugmom at 22:19,
Yes i’ve notice the triad of symptoms (high fever, coughs & breathlesness/respiratory distress). I remember reading an article whereby a doctor from a hospital saying they classify suspected cases into 1 of 3 categories, i.e. mild, average or severe(heavy). He went on to explain that:
[Note: this is from my memory, but i clearly remember it is related to lungs condition.]
Does anyone know the city in South Sulawesi for the 6 new patients (articles at 20:01 and 20:46)?
Thanks mamypoko.
I show the current tally of individuals at 72. I wasn’t planning to post the summary every day, but today has been full of news. If someone needs to see it, just let me know.
I think I have seen the 2 and 1.5 in one report and the 21F in another but not both together- so this may be duplicates. notice Kamonji district
JAKARTA, Aug. 25 (Xinhua) — Three residents in the Indonesian province of Central Sulawesi were admitted to hospital Friday for allegedly developing bird flu symptoms.
Two toddlers aged 2 and 1.5 and a 21-year-old housewife got treatment at the Undata Hospital in the provincial capital of Paludue to high fever and respiratory problems.
They live in Kamonji district where authorities recently found dozens of chickens killed by the avian influenza, reported the national Antara news agency.
Earlier in the day, health officials in Palu began to cull hundreds of chickens to prevent an outbreak, reported evening newspaper Sinar Harapan.
At least five residents in Palu have been hospitalized for developing bird flu symptoms.
pugmom – at 13:18
The earlier cases lived on different streets, so these three are new cases. They’re all on the same street — siblings?
Dennie C., I show Mutmaina (1.5 years) and Sri the Well-being (2 years)were hospitalized in , RSUD South-East Sulawesi, but Haris Purwanto (5 years) was included in the report with them.
I do have Elis(21), Farah (5), and Kiki from Palu, Central Sulawesi, but I don’t have any other details regarding them. There is a prior report posted by Sarah at 18:35 which says there are 5 people at the Palu Undata Hospital (the same location as your article).
I tend to think we should keep the South-East Sulawesi and Central Sulawesi cases separate, even though the ages overlap. But I hesitate to show more than 5 total in Central Sulawesi. Does anyone have a different understanding?
Good pick-up dbg—yes, they name one street, then to go on to say everything around “their” house…(Appears to be siblings or relatives.) Thankyou Mamypoko for making the word “heavy” a little clearer to me. It is their way of saying “severe” or critical. That adds alot to the readings, gives one an idea of their status, survivability, etc.
Michelle in OK – at 22:55 I wanted to think you and “the Indo group” for keeping up with things. I just cannot keep them stright. What it all says to me is that there are a lot of cases in a lot of places.
DennisC, yes there are a lot of cases. And to be honest, when I work on the summary at night, I don’t sleep very well. I’m an accountant, so I’m used to counting, but I’m not used to counting sick people. Hats off to all the health care workers who spend the majority of their days focusing on helping sick individuals.
Hats off also to the individuals on the ground who are over there trying to help these people and the rest of us.
Here’s what I have: SE Sulawesi
| Name | EnglishName | Age | City | Street |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Istiwati (Lis) | 17 | Kendari | Ponggoloka | |
| Nurhadayani | The Guidance | 5 | Kendari | Ponggoloka |
| Ahmad Djafar | The Dawn | 1.5 | Kendari | Ponggoloka |
| Andika | 1.5 | Kendari | Sao-Sao | |
| Daffarial | Kendari? | Jati | ||
| Mutmaina | 1.5 | Kendari | Saranani | |
| Haris Purwanto | 5 | Kendari | Saranani | |
| Sri | The Well-being | 2 | Kendari | Saranani |
Central Sulawesi
| Name | EnglishName | Age | City | Street |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmad | 2 | Palu | ||
| greetings | 1.5 | Palu | ||
| Elis | 21 | Palu | Datuk Pamusu | |
| Farah | <5 | Palu | ||
| Kiki | ? | Palu |
The only ones I’ve updated today are the last three on Saranani Street.
I give the data the same interpretation Michelle. Also, on your summary (the latest one from this am), under Cikelet, the 5th entry down: I don’t understand, does that refer to a person we never got a name on? It says 0 symptoms….. Thanx
pugmom at 23:23 - yes, under cikelet summary, the 5th & last entries are the same person.
dbg at 23:17, just to add gender to a few of the names in yr list:
the rest are not obvious to me.
I found a travel site that lists an apartment house in: Gondangdia Village, Menteng Central Jakarta City 10350
pugmom at 23:23… sorry, that was a spreadsheet goof (operator error). It should have said Ai Siti Amanah/Fatimah (9F).
Thanks dbg. The numbers are consistent with what I’ve recorded, but I didn’t have all the names. I’m not sure of the dates for 2yo or the 1.5yo from Palu. One I have as 8/26 an the other as 8/28. Do you know which is which?
Also dbg, I was showing that Andika and Daffarial were siblings. I may have assumed this and will remove the notation since you show the streets were different, unless I can locate an article which says they are related.
pugmon at 20:46 and CG - a google search puts Turikale District on Sulawesi (and an article with a small map seems to show it as southeast) - I think you have got that sussed though.
As to WHO going to ‘probable’ cases as well as confirmed - this was also done with SARS. If you check some of their statistics pages for SARS you will note that probables and confirmed are shown separately. It will interesting to see if they update the BF tsbles to reflect the same breakdown?
Have things slowed down with human cases in Indonesia or have they picked up? I’m sorry, I won’t have time to read the threads in full for a bit. Was hoping someone could just tell me if human (suspected) cases are picking up or leveled off. Many thanks.
anonymous at 23:51… 63 on yesterday’s summary less 2 we’ve decided are duplicates (Ai Fatimah and student TK Sukowiyono) subtracted from the new total of 72 means there were 11 more individuals reported today. That is way too fast.
Further investigation - Maros is in Sulawesi Selatan
The efforts you are all making to bring this information together is very humbling. Thank you so so much
I am stunned at the level of dedication and cooperation that has manifested in this group. Thank you so very much, your work is making it much easier to pass along relevant information to other people that will be making public health decisions. Very impressive work!
mamypoko – at 23:34 Thanks for the genders — I’ve added them to my spreadsheet.
Michelle in OK – at 23:40 I have onset dates for 2yo and the 1.5yo from Palu as 8/25/06, but I don’t remember where I got it.
AnnieB – at 23:43 Maros is not far from Ujung Pandang, which is the capital of South Sulawesi. Approximate population for 7 km radius from this point (Maros): 21910, but according to my map, the population of Ujung Pandang is over 1,000,000.
Michelle in OK, have you already added the six cases to the summary, or would you like me to post the Cliff Notes version?
I wish to add my thanks and admiration to y’all for the hard work you are doing trying to make clear sense out of so many disjointed stories.
Maybe you could take a stab at the tax code? 8^)
Oremus,the tax code should be no problem for this great group. Thankyou from me and my family.
I’m fairly sure these are new:
2 more suspected bird flu patients treated in Indonesia (http://tinyurl.com/jqtcl)
8/29/06 - Ridwan (17M) from hamlet Rancasalak, subdistrict Cikelet taken to Garut hospital
8/29–30/06 - Name? (39M) from hamlet Cigadog, subdistrict Cikelet taken to Garut hospital
Agence France-Presse, Last updated 12:23pm (Mla time) 08/30/2006 JAKARTA — Two more people from a bird flu-hit area in Indonesia’s West Java have been admitted to hospital on suspicion of contracting avian influenza, health officials said. [snip] The first Indonesian patient, a 17-year old, was taken on Tuesday to hospital in Garut, West Java, from the hamlet of Ranca Salak in the subdistrict of Cikelet where three people have already been infected by bird flu, said Iman Firmanullah. Birds in Ranca Salak tested positive of the H5N1 strain of the disease but no information was obtained whether Ridwan had been in contact with them, said Firmanullah, who heads the contagious disease section at Garut’s health office. The Garut general hospital overnight received a 39-year-old man from the nearby hamlet of Cigadog who showed symptoms of bird flu, Firmanullah told Agence France-Presse (AFP). Three other people from Cikelet are also suspected of having been killed by the disease. The district animal husbandry office has culled a total of 4,697 birds, including chicken, ducks, geese and doves in the six villages in Cikelet in the past days, said Dida Kardiana, an official from the office in Garut.
dbg – at 02:12
It’s beginning to look like the Tamiflu blanket not working …
Is it seasonal flu time now in Indoensia?
I ask because if it is, it could explain some of the suspected cases, but would increase the risk due to potential mixing of H5N1 and seasonal flu in a human.
There were alot of changes to the summary yesterday, so I posted a new one in the other thread to help all who are researching have the latest information.
Please let me know if you notice changes to be made. (The note to “delete” about Andika and Daffarial was a note to myself and refers only to the designation as siblings. I haven’t had a chance to backtrack yet._
dbg, How do you make columns (like in your posting at 23:17)? I tried, but couldn’t figure out what code to use. It might make the summary easier to follow, but I’d have to cut out some information or abbreviate more so there would be no line-wraps.
Just another “thanks to all”. I’ve been so busy at home that the only place I have time to check is fluwiki :) Your work is really appriciated!
I went to the sandbox and copied someone else’s work! Use two pipes (shift + \) to separate columns and a ! just in front of the words you want to use for the column headings. I forgot to put in the border and width criteria, and that might make it not quite so HUGE - I’m going to try using “smaller” next time.
I wonder if they would kill every last bird in a 10km radius around Cikelet, if the human infections would stop?? I suspect not.
Here is a breakdown of stats from our latest Summary://
Total (includes people sent home):
8/26 - 50
8/27 - 59
8/28 - 63
8/29 - 74
Tested Positive: 5
Tested Negative: 10
Released: 10
Died: 8
As you can see by the above, there is a lot that we don’t know.
Thanks to all on the team who puts the summaries together. I can see it’s very difficult work. Your dedication and commitment are greatly appreciated.
Comments on negative test results: 29 of the 33 provinces in Indonesia are now infected with AI in the bird populations. That means practically every Tom, Dick and Harry in Indonesia fulfills the WHO criteria for exposure. (Remember the WHO came out and said yesterday that “probable” diagnoses could be rendered based on either: exposure + pneumonia OR exposure + lab positive Flu A). There are several reasons a person that is actually positive could have negative test results. Those being: Tamiflu treatment days before onset of symptoms, improper collection of samples, deterioration of samples, poor lab techniques, not sampling within the needed time frames, etc. Off the top of my head, I would say that maybe as many as 50% of the negatives could actually be inaccurate. At some point we need to look at our summaries and assign numbers to those positive , those negative and those undetermined. (Then mentally I would cut those negatives in about half). We don’t know what methods they are using to determine the positives/negatives, or if advanced labs are confirming their results. Later today I will try to come up with figures from the summaries for the negs/pos/undetermined.
Thanks CG—you have already done the above!
Thanks ANON-YYZ// pugmom - you’re welcome - but I can’t be trusted after 6 pm EST……in fact, after last night’s “episode”, I won’t even post anything after dinner!!!
Simulungun, North Sumatra: update on Rasmitia Lingga 8–30–06
Metrotvnews.com, Medan: the Patient suspect bird flu from the Simalungun Regency, North Sumatra, Rasmita Boru Lingga (34), that was pregnant two months experienced had a miscarriage. At this time, Rasmita was still being treated intensively in Space of the Pilgrim Adam of the Isolation of the central Public Hospital the Owner, Medan. The Rasmita condition up to now is not yet stable because still experienced breathless and feverish. It was hot that his body achieved 39 levels celcius. Doktor Luhur Breakingprep Suroso Professor, Ketua Breakingprep Tim Medis Penanggulangan Breakingprep Flu Burung Rumah Sakit Adam Malik Medan said, the team of the doctor must do terminasi or menguret the embryo that was contained by Rasmita. Professor Beadj Luhur also said, the hospital side on last Tuesday (29/8) accepted information from the Hall of the Department of the Health, Jakarta, of the Health Research that results of the sample of Rasmita blood the bird flu negative. Results of this research, according to Professor Luhur, were different to results of the clinical inspection the team of the doctor Adam’s Hospital the Owner against Rasmita that headed to H5N1. ()
Cikelet, West Java: update on “Direct” or “Pidi” ( has been moved to isolation hospital) 8–30–06 http://tinyurl.com/akr4j
Metrotvnews.com, Garut: one citizen Cikeulet, the Garut Regency, West Java, was put into space Slamet Garut of the isolation of the doctor’s Hospital. This patient was beforehand observed in the Pameungmpeuk Community Health Centre with signs similar to bird flu. The patient this time had a name Direct was 70 years old. The citizen of the Cipicung Village, this Cikeulet Village became the 13th patient who must enter special isolation space the bird flu patient. From the story note of his illness, two years set, Direct suffered the cough and breathless. At that point his property chicken died. According to the wife Direct, in the last 10 days his property chickens also died suddenly. The side of RS Slamet took the sample of blood Direct ascertained the man’s old illness. (DEN)
From the above comments it sounds as if this 70 yo man has had chronic respiratory problems, perhaps congestive heart failure (onset 2 years ago) or emphysema-(just my guess). His chances don’t sound good.
Cikelet, West Java: update on Ridwan and now have a name for the 39yo 8–30–06 http://tinyurl.com/am6wk
The health two patients Suspect Bird Flu in Cikelet entered RS the writer: Sugeng
Bandung — MIOL: two patients suspect bird flu from Cikelet, Ridwan’s smoke, 17, the citizen of the Rancasalak Village, the Cikelet Village, and Maman, 39, the citizen of the Bopong Village, the Cigadog Village, entered RSUD Dr Slamet, Garut. The “smoke entered on Tuesday afternoon and Maman the dawn yesterday (on Wednesday).” After being handled medical, their condition gradually improved, explained the Head of the Medical Service of RSUD Dr Slamet Widjayanti Utojo, on Wednesday. Apart from the two patients, RSUD Dr Slamet also was treating Direct, 60, the citizen of the Cipicung Village, the Cikelet Village. The “sample of blood of the three patients has been sent by us to Jakarta.” If the three of them the negative, then we will treat them until his condition was good, before being permitted to come home, stated Widjayanti. In the meantime, RSHS Bandung, on Wednesday, returned two patients suspect bird flu that has been healthy, namely Tosin, 71 and Herman, 21, both of them the citizen Cikelet. The two patients have also been stated by the negative tertular the bird flu virus. “Since September 2005 till at this time, RSHS Bandung has treated 52 patients suspect bird flu, seven including being positive and five people died.” We were still having Tamiflu supplies was, namely 800 tablets, flat enough the Managing Director RSHS Cissy Rachiana Kartasasmita…….
More on “Direct” Cikelet
Garut: Direct, the citizen of the Cipicung Village, the Cikelet Subdistrict, of Garut, West Java, that it was suspected suffered bird flu, was moved to space Slamet of the isolation of the doctor’s Hospital, on Tuesday night (29/8). This after breathless that was experienced by him increasingly serious. According to Wawan Sumiarsa, the person responsible for RS isolation space the doctor Slamet, at this time the condition for casualties has experienced the increase, but was not yet specific. “Still we observation,” said Wawan. At this time, the sample of blood Direct still in the research to confirm the positive patient suffered bird flu or not. Beforehand, three citizens Cikelet other was stated positive terjangkit the bird flu virus. Two of the positive patients Euslina bird flu and Siti Fatimah had finally died [read: Again, the Bird Flu Patient from Garut died]. As far as this is concerned, the official of Garut Regency Livestock Breeding of the Service destroyed 4. 513 poultries in two villages, that is Cikelet and Cigadog. The extermination will continue to be carried out if still was found the positive poultry was infected by the virus avian sub-type influenza H5N1. In South Sulawesi, the vaccination and spraying of the poultry to prevent the spreading of bird flu terkendala the shortage of the poultry vaccine. Alhasil the vaccination could be only carried out in the area that was identified was attacked by the virus H5N1 like Bone, Sinjai, and Maros. Whereas the area that still was safe from the bird flu virus did not yet get the vaccination. To investigate the shortage of stock of the vaccine, the local side of the Health Service increased bio security, like supervised tight the poultry traffic in South Sulawesi as well as increased spraying disinfektan to livestock breeding centres. In the meantime, the official of Banyumas Regency Livestock Breeding, Central Java, of the Service just recently, gave counselling about the bird flu virus to the teachers and an amount of delegation of the pupil from several schools in Banyumas. Material that was given covered the introduction to the virus kind, the prevention, and the control method of the bird flu illness. Hoped this material could be sent to the pupil through teaching. As for this counselling would the routine was carried out to prevent bird flu spreading to the Banyumas territory
Turikale District, Southeast Sulawesi: update on those 6 cases (being treated at home!) 8–30–06 http://tinyurl.com/am6wk
The health of six citizens Maros Terindikasi was infected by Bird Flu the writer: LiNa HeRLiNa MAKASSAR — MIOL: six citizens of the Maros Regency, South Sulawesi, terindikasi was affected by the virus Avian influenza or more was known with bird flu. Six people were neighbours in Street. Dr Ratulangi, the Solojirang Environment, the Turikale District, the Maros Regency. According to the Section Head Maros Livestock Breeding, A Hafid Amazon, as far as this is concerned was not yet it was known certain whether the six people were infected by bird flu. On Tuesday (29/8), they were taken the sample of his blood to be checked and sent to the centre. “We were waiting for results in a forthcoming week.” Whereas the six citizens have been given Tamiflu medicine, vitamin B complex and antibiotik, he stated. The taking of the sample of the blood was based on the report on the wife from one of the citizens that terindikasi bird flu, Jaelani, 36, that is Kartini, 28. He reported to surveillance the Aliritengngae Community Health Centre, A Rasnawati, about the condition for his husband who it was suspected was infected by bird flu. Was based on information, to last Thursday (24/8), Jaelani burnt and buried several tails of his chicken that died suddenly behind his house. Further was supported by the head surveillance the local Health Service, Andi Ali Reza, immediately inspected the location. The medical official then indicated if the citizen that was sick that was expected terjangkit the bird flu virus so as they immediately contacted the Maros Livestock Breeding Service. Because of this report, the side of the Livestock Breeding Service took two chickens around the residence of the six citizens. One tail in the living situation and an other died to be researched in BB Vet. “We indicated if the chicken that died this was attacked by bird flu.” But, results could be known after results of the inspection of BB-Vet, in waktu
In the next two days went out, said Hafid. The six citizens that was expected terindikasi the bird flu was Jaelani, 36, Nursari, 46, Saiful, 28, Hernan, 21 and Dg Sallang, 65. The sample of their blood was taken by the official of the Maros Health of the Service with the official of the Aliritengngae Community Health Centre. The six people were not treated intensively in the community health centre or the hospital, but continued to get special attention from the Health Service by giving them antibiotik. (LN/OL-03)
‘’Grace RN – at 04:46 Is it seasonal flu time now in Indoensia? I ask because if it is, it could explain some of the suspected cases, but would increase the risk due to potential mixing of H5N1 and seasonal flu in a human.’‘
I was wondering the same thing. It is “winter” in Indonesia right now and I remember hearing about reports of seasonal flu in other southeast Asian countries in the past few months. That might explain some of these cases. Or, the Indonesian gov’t might be reporting anything that seems suspicious - think Thailand recently. However, it still seems to me that there is something amiss in SE Asia right now.
Cikelet, West Java: “Pidi” or “Direct” had contact with Umar! http://tinyurl.com/nwhzh
29/8/2006 10:54 WIB
RSU Dr Slamet Garut Again treated one Patient Suspect Burung Flu The verification - Garut, the Public Hospital (RSU) Dr Slamet Garut again treated one patient suspect bird flu on behalf of Direct (60), the citizen of the Cipicung Village, the Cikelet Village, the Cikelet Subdistrict, Garut West Java. Directed was the patient of the 20 cases suspect bird flu in Cikelet and was the 13th patient who was handled by RSU Dr Slamet Garut. Directed that beforehand once meminun medicine tamiflu that began to be treated in RSU Dr Slamet Garut this night around struck 19. 40 WIB. And was based on results of the temporary inspection through to this afternoon, on Tuesday (29/8), the clinical sign that was experienced Direct that is hot high achieved 37 levels celcius, experienced the cough and breathless with the frequency of breathing 32 times each minute, the pulse 80 times per the minute and blood blood pressure 130 per 90. According to the person responsible for the room of the RSU isolation Dr Slamet Garut, Wawan Sumiarsa, the patient Direct that was expected suspect bird flu beforehand once direct contact with the poultry died but also could remain close with Umar, one of the citizens that beforehand was stated positive bird flu but at this time has recovered. (der
Kendari, SE Sulawesi: new names? 8–25–06--note, this is an old article dated 8–25–06. I know the first 3 names they cite (Ambu Sao’s family) but take a look at the 2 last names. Familiar to anybody?? Could they be Haris and Sri with different names? Yet, they are not siblings, as they live on different streets? http://tinyurl.com/p4c9p
Erna Dwi Lidiawati
Palu–Menyusul the discovery of the bird flu virus that attacked dozens of chickens in Palu, Central Sulawesi (Sulteng), hundreds of chickens in the Kamonji District, Palu West, on Friday morning (25/8), was destroyed by means of being burnt. The extermination was carried out by the official from the Health Service of the Palu City and the Sulteng Province. Principal TK Aisyah, Saritan Puluulawa, on Friday morning (25/8), decided to give approximately 210 pupils the Kindergarten a holiday (TK) Aisyah that was neighbouring with the location of the discovery of the chicken that tertular the bird flu virus in Street Datu Pamusu, the Kamonji District, Palu West, from Saturday (26/8) was given a holiday one week. For two weeks, 22 piece chickens belonging to the citizen in Palu West died suddenly. The Big Veteriner Maros hall, South Sulawesi (South Sulawesi), ascertained this chicken positive was attacked by the virus H5N1. Ba-haruddin, the citizen Street Datu Pamusu No. 12, the Kamonji District, Palu West, claimed to be the shock saw dozens of his chickens died suddenly. “Sore his day, I in fact still was seeing them was healthy. Knew-knew him his morning already mati,” said Baharuddin when being found by SH, on Thursday early afternoon (24/8), in his residence. The similar matter was also complained about by the other chicken breeder. The section head the Health of Agriculture and Perhutanan of the Service local, Lukman, acknowledged if dozens of chickens that died this positive was attacked by the bird flu virus. “Kami immediately did the step in anticipation with biosecurity and the regional isolation that was attacked. In the near future after the sample of the livestock was in several territories checked, it was not impossible that we will carry out the extermination massal,” Lukman words. From Kendari, the South-East Sulawesi Province (South-East Sulawesi), three children in one family that remained at Street Patimura, RT03/RW05 the Punggolaka District, the Kendari City, the South-East Sulawesi Province (South-East Sulawesi), was known as being expected (suspect) bird flu. Ahm (1,6) the youngest child from three related this immediately was reconciled to the regional Public Hospital (RSUD) South-East Sulawesi, because of his condition be apprehensive about. His two older brothers, Nur (5) and Lis (2,7) just entered the hospital, on Friday morning (25/8). In the meantime, two children, Df (5) the citizen of the Teak Path, Street Jati Raya Kendari, and And (1,2), the citizen Street Sao-sao, the patient was expected by bird flu that was treated.
Pugmom at 10:44, taken from the earlier article (20:46): “Further on Saturday August 26, the wife Jaelani reported to the community health centre.” And then this: “We were waiting for results in a forthcoming week”. So apparently Jaelani did report to the community health centre. They sent her home, and focused everything on the fact that he had culled chicken, and are also waiting on the results from the chicken.
Umar developed symptoms on July 26th. Unless the incubation period is a lot longer than we know, Umar probalby did not infect Pidi. May be Pidi petted Umar’s dog ??
Michelle in OK – at 07:39
Just a suggestion: You could pick a color for those currently hospitalized. And maybe capitalized bold red for any case that tested positive but was released.
worrywart – at 11:38, For what it is worth, I just posted on the news thread a report that a dog in Thailand became infected with H5N1 after eating infected ducks.
Eight have died since 7/26?
pugmom – at 11:26 — The streets and name abbreviations match Andika and Daffarial from the chart at 23:17; I’d bet a nickel that’s who these two are (first time I’ve seen an age for Daffarial). Whaddya think?
I am still confused if a blood test taken in the early stages of H5N1 illness, is a reliable indicator of infection. For instance here is a snip from the article pugmom posted at 10:44:
was not yet it was known certain whether the six people were infected by bird flu. On Tuesday (29/8), they were taken the sample of his blood to be checked and sent to the centre.
Obviously antibodies would not be prevalent in early stages of illness. And while virus in blood has been reported in a study, it does not appear that it is yet a reliable method for diagnosis. So, can anyone advise why they are using blood tests for diagnosis, as seems to be stated in numerous Indonesian news articles? Has there been any indication of throat swab tests being used instead of, or in addition to blood tests?
Hi, don’t know if this is of interest to anyone. I looked this up after attempting to read the toggletexts and also wondering about the untranslated words. Someone mentioned they thought there wasn’t any gender distinction in Indonesian language and they were right. Copied this from the site Indonesian language resources.
Grammar
No gender rules. No singular or plural rules. No future or past tenses of verbs, either!
Heads or Tails
In counting their farm stock in English, people refer to “head” of cattle or sheep. Interestingly, Indonesians count the number of a wide range of animals by their “tails”. So instead of saying “John sold three head of cattle”, Indonesians say the literal equivalent of “John sold three tail of cattle”. Although we have not come across any definitive explanation of this difference, it is tempting to speculate on possible different traditional positions when counting animals, either from behind or in front.
Now will try to give you the link: Indonesian Language Resources - Products and Services for Bahasa Indonesia
http://tinyurl.com/plvff hope this works
Thank you so much to everyone who is working so hard on getting this terrific information to the thread, and to us. :)
I have a really dumb question…Do you think we will EVER know for certain whether this group of upwards of 60 “suspected” cases in Indo in the last month will be CONFIRMED Negative or Positive? I realize that there are 5 confirmed, and 10 Negative. But with the false negatives in Thailand, etc., and the inability of different tests (swabs, etc.) to confirm early, and some unable to confirm later in the stages, will we, at any time, get clear-cut results about H5N1 infectivity of the patients still living?
If this “outbreak” should fizzle out (hopefully) I would certainly love to know what, in fact, each case was; were they a combination of H5N1 and Seasonal Flu? Were they mostly H5N1? Or mostly Seasonal? To make a very long question longer:
Will the WHO or others investigate this “outbreak” to completion (testing antibodies later on, etc.) and give results?
Thanks for any thoughts you all may have on this issue. I don’t know what their protocol is for getting to the bottom of each and every case. (Provided it doesn’t grow exponentially)
Thanks, Niah
anonymous – at 14:21
My post above, thanks. :)
Niah - at 14:23, to try and answer your questions, I am not sure WHO is working with the Indonesians. They never mention WHO in their newspaper articles. We may never find out what these people had. And they may very well return, given the fact that we don’t know how long they were sick, before given Tamiflu. All we have are newspaper articles. Which is more than we have from China.
dbg—you are so right. Of course that is who they are—another good pick-up. Well, at least we can assign an age of 5 to Daffarial. I never did find that reference to the streets the two of them lived on.
Commonground – at 14:39
Thank you for replying…I don’t recall see any mention of the WHO in any of the recently translated articles, either.
Sometimes tucked in the back of my occasionally overly vivid imagination I see China with clusters just such as this scattered all over that country. :(
Hopefully not! :)
Asep may be a new one
Two more people from a bird flu-hit area in Indonesia’s West Java have been admitted to hospital on suspicion of contracting avian influenza, health officials said. The first patient, 17-year-old Asep Ridwan, was taken on Tuesday to hospital in Garut, West Java, from the hamlet of Ranca Salak in the subdistrict of Cikelet where three people have already been infected by bird flu, said Iman Firmanullah. Birds in Ranca Salak tested positive of the H5N1 strain of the disease but no information was obtained whether Ridwan had been in contact with them, said Firmanullah, who heads the contagious disease section at Garut’s health office. The Garut general hospital
beehiver—13:45--you and I are struggling with the same questions. It bothers me alot when they say they take blood tests. The CDC wrote a long article on proper testing procedures (been so many articles ago, I doubt I can post links) but their recommendation, if I remember correctly, was the taking of nasopharyngeal swabs in the first several days after symptoms. Then later, around 21 days, it was the taking of blood testing for antibody testing. However, I read several days ago that there is PCR testing done (re-creating the virus using Polymerase chain reaction technique) of blood samples at any stage of the game. (again, sorry I can’t give link). I had the impression this was done only in advanced labs. Can any expert on this forum help us to understand just what they may be doing over there as far as testing?? We all have this same question in our minds. And if any experts do weigh in on this matter, I guess the big question is: do you feel their testing is valid and accurate?
Hi DennisC—we have Ridwan on our summary list, but it is great you are posting articles and trying to help us add names to our ever-growing list.
pugmom – at 15:20
oops, I had just searched the page for Asep….. I will try to be better next time. I am so glad that the INDO group is clearing things up for us.- thanks. There are so many of them these days…….. The question in my mind is will the number increase or decrease in the next week - that will be the important thing for me.
Does anyone really know what’s happening in Indonesia? What would the news articles be saying if it were spreading H2H2H? Could it be happening and not be reported? Do we need to wait until it surfaces elsewhere to decide that it may be the beginning of the pandemic? Any thoughts.
Ruth, that is an exact question that I asked of the WHO in my email and he basically told me that they were very busy at the moment and the answers were on their website. I definately think more is going on in Indonesia than being reported.
Hi there Ruth—you mean, what are the Villagers saying amongst themselves?? Wouldn’t that be interesting to know? I know that there is a ratcheting up of the language in the translated articles over the last few days. They say things like: “great fear over spreading epidemic” etc, etc. I agree with you, I think the world is listening, but is not hearing.
Hi Pugmom, You are doing a great job with all the organizing of data. With all the news lately, there seems to be an increasing # of Bird Flu patients, but I’m not convinced it’s the beginning of the pandemic, but then how would I know if it were. I guess we would really have to wait for sick people showing up in other parts of the world. It’s just frustating because the world needs as much advance notice as possible, but they probably would tell us until they loose control over the situation.
Ruth—have you visited our Indo Case Summary thread? Go take a look, if you haven’t already.
I hope this is not seen as being OT. Just found an article on-line from Nature about another disaster now hitting Indonesia. http://tinyurl.com/hdds4
A quote from the article: “For 3 months a sea of hot mud has been gushing from the ground in Sidoarjo, East Java, 35 kilometres south of Indonesia’s second largest city, Surabaya. The steaming mud pool is growing at an estimated 50,000 cubic metres a day, accompanied by hydrogen sulphide gas, and now reportedly covers more than 25 square kilometres. The flow has not yet been stopped; thousands of people have lost their homes.
<snip>
“The Sidoarjo disaster is an example of a ‘mud volcano’. Mud and gas accumulates when sea sediments are trapped in subduction zones, where one tectonic plate slides under another, and can erupt out of volcanic cones or simply from a crack in the ground.
<snip>
“But the Sidoarjo mud volcano is rather unusual. It’s huge. And, says Sam Rice, a geologist at the University of Cambridge, UK, reports of the mud eruption suggest that it is a hybrid between typical mud volcanoes and hydrothermal vents. The mud is of an unusually high temperature (60 °C) and contains enormously high concentrations of hydrogen sulphide gas. This suggests that some kind of volcanic, hydrothermal activity is going on at the same time.”
Might this be occurring in one of the areas we are watching for BF? Or could the gas be spreading to other areas? This makes me wonder if the gas releases may be the cause of some of the increases seen in respiratory distress?
http://tinyurl.com/h9rk2 Dated August 31
The number Suspect Bird Flu disturbed the Garut Citizen Garut (Antara News) - the News about continued to arrive him the patient that it was suspected was infected by the bird flu virus (avian influenza/AI) from the Cikelet Subdistrict Community Health Centre to RSU Dr Slamet Garut, disturbed the local citizen. The representative of the Garut Regent the Hermawan Memo, on Wednesday, in Garut admitted to understanding the citizen’s unrest towards the bird flu danger, and he promised that the Garut Regional Government went through the related agency will continue to do various efforts to prevent the spreading of this illness. ‘’‘“We were very concerned with the bird flu outbreak in Garut.” Because of that we must increase vigilance, but did not panic, he stated.’‘’ He proposed, the service and the related agency will in Garut tighten the supervision and carried out the isolation for the movement in and out of the poultry in the Cikelet Subdistrict following the existence produced by the Department’s research of Agriculture that mentioned that the virus contagious bird flu in the area came from the area of urban areas. The representative of the Regent also asked the Garut citizen during always to maintain the condition for the body to stay healthy in a competing manner and consume nutritious food as well as maintain the cleanliness himself and his environment masing- masing. “That just very light for example us must cultivate memcuci the hands.” Washed the hands was the trivial matter, but fully did not yet become entrenched in the middle of the community, in fact for the health should when eating and after eating or after doing something preferably washed the hands, he said. ‘’‘Named, since two last weeks were in Garut received by approximately 18 patients suspect bird flu, three positive and two died resulting from bird flu. Suspect bird flu almost every day arrived to RSU Dr Slamet Garut and even several of the him immediately was reconciled to RSHS Bandung. In the meantime RSUD public relations Dr Slemet Garut the Yogi Suprayogi suggested, apart from being contagious in the Cikelet Village and Cigadog in the Subdistrict of Cikelet Garut, bird flu also it was worried about spread to four villages around it, namely the Cijambe Village, Karangsari, Linggamanik and the Pamalayanan Village.’‘’
So I just looked at that wonderful map on Indo case summary thread. Basically, there’s bird flu victims all over indonesia, but it’s not spreading h2h2h2. If these numbers continue to rise on a daily basis, then we have a problem.. Looks like a slow boil to me, scary part is that there is more opportunity for mutation. It would be great to update that map every few days so we might be able to spot any trends that may occur. Seems much worse than 5 months ago when I started obsessing about bird flu.
Not all the names match up in Palu, August 26th
Four Suspect Diperiksa Bird Flu
Excerpt:
Indosiar.com, Palu - four Palu citizens underwent the taking of the sample of blood in the public’s house Undata, Palu. The taking of the sample of blood was carried out after they experienced signs that were caused to resemble bird flu. The assurance produced by the blood test, just could be known several days. To four citizens who experienced the taking of the sample of this blood, two including being children was two years, and one year old more. Like that entered, Selan and Ahmad, at once were done by the taking of the sample of blood. Both of them were still having the neighbour with the Pilgrim Baharudin, relationship the owner of the chicken that was stated terjangkit bird flu. Both of them has experienced hot high since two days, but indirectly diperiksakan to the hospital. ‘’‘In the meantime, Elis 21 years, one of the housewives also underwent the taking test of the sample of blood. Elis claimed, experienced hot high already since the last three days. Signs of bird flu in part as having phlegm and the cough was also experienced by Elize. Now other including being not known by his identity, because after the taking of the sample at once came home.’‘’
It not yet there are those that was stated positive bird flu till at this time. In the meantime, still in Palu, after dozens of chickens were found died suddenly in Street Datuk Lamusu, the Palu subdistrict West, the official again found hundreds of tails of the chicken that died suddenly in the Bongka River road, the Mojuna District, of Palu West. Hundreds of tails of the chicken that died suddenly, have been thrown away to the river. (again see other posts Banyuwangi-my comment) Whereas 20 tails that just died, continue to was kept in the pen. The official from the hall of animal quarantine took the sample of the livestock animal to be done by the laboratory test. Chickens that has died this afterwards was destroyed by means of being burnt. Whereas chickens that still was living, most were handed willingly over by his owner to be destroyed. The previous day, 20 chickens belonging to the pilgrim Baharudin also died suddenly. From results of the laboratory test in Maros, South Sulawesi, was ascertained as a result of being attacked by the flu virus…
In the meantime, Elis 21 years, one of the housewives also underwent the taking test of the sample of blood. Elis claimed, experienced hot high already since the last three days. Signs of bird flu in part as having phlegm and the cough was also experienced by Elize. Now other including being not known by his identity, because after the taking of the sample at once came home.
Try this again:)
So what are the chances of WHO declaring level 4?
Influentia2, thank you. I’ve noted that Elis is at home, not in the hospital. The article at 18:00 clears up some of the confusion around the patients in Palu. I believe Ahmad to be the (2M) we’re showing and Selan must be the “Greetings (1.5)” which dgb listed. This article clears up some of the mystery about 5 patients in Palu.
There is an article you posted on the Indonesia Outbreak II thread regarding the 7/22 patients as follows: “According to him, the sample of blood of the two casualties was sent to Surabaya to last July 16. And up until now his side does not yet get results of the test of the laboratory. “We did not yet know whether positive or negative was affected by AI?” Because results of the laboratory up until now do not yet come. Usually results of the lab come four to one weeks.
I think this was the link “http://tinyurl.com/ggj4k”
mammypoko, can you translate and see whether the article states that the patients died? They are referred to as casualties. Thank you.
News
Three more suspect cases. This is from a Bandung newspaper online. I think at least two of these cases have been reported here on the FluWiki forum. I apologize if this is simply “old” news.
Toggletext translation:
Three Again ”Suspect” entered RSU Garut Garut, (HOMEWORK).
- RSU Dr. Slamet Garut again treated three patients suspect bird flu from Kec.
Cikelet.
They were Ridwan’s smoke (17), the citizen of the Village Rancasalak the Cikelet Village, Maman (39), the citizen Kp. Bopong the Cigadog Village, as well as Direct (6), the citizen of the Village Cipicung the Cikelet Village. The three of them entered isolation space because of experiencing the sign like suspect beforehand.
According to Kasubag Information RSU of the Customer’s Service Dr. Slamet Garut Yogie Prayogi, on last Wednesday, the smoke arrived in isolation space on Tuesday night (29/8) with the condition was not too serious. Whereas the other patient, especially Maman, when entering RS his situation was serious enough. However after getting the intensive maintenance, the Maman condition and Direct gradually improved.
The “condition for the smoke has improved.” His blood pressure revolved 120/80, respiration 20 times per the minute with the temperature of the body 35.7 Celsius levels. Maman his blood pressure 90/60, respiration 22 times per the minute with the temperature of the body 36.3 levels celcius, said Yogie, on Wednesday (30/8). Whereas Tosin (61) and Herman (21), two suspect that was treated in RSHS Bandung, on last Wednesday has been returned. After being stated by the negative, the Tosin condition (61) and Herman (21), suspect bird flu from Kec. Cikelet Kab.
Garut, continued to improve and to have been stated healthy. Both of them were the 51st and 52nd patient who was handled Handsome Sadikin space of the isolation of the Hospital Poinciana Tree (RSHS) Bandung. Poinciana Tree space was special space to treat the bird flu patient and the patient who were expected (suspect) was attacked by the virus H5N1. “Both of them have been official the bird flu negative, and was diagnosed suffered ISPA and pneumonia that not was resulted in by the Avian virus influenza,” said the Managing Director of RSHS Bandung, Prof. Dr. Dr. Cissy B. Kartasasmita, Sp. A (K). , M. Sc.
Already stabil
The person responsible for isolation space of RSU Garut Wawan Sumiarsa explained, his side not yet will reconcile the two patients to RSHS Bandung. Because, Maman and the smoke gradually improved and his condition again was stable.
“In general his body heat already under 37 Celsius levels with respiration 24 times per the minute.” We only were kept being waiting for results of his blood inspection. Hopefully the negative, said Wawan. The Dunia bank The world bank believed, the Indonesian government did still not work well in handling bird flu. However, Indonesia then ask for in order to have the balance and the community’s international support, to handle the case of bird flu in Indonesia.
That came to the forefront in the meeting of the Head of Delegation of the world Bank in Indonesia, Andrew Steer with Vice President Jusuf Kalla, in the Office Vice President Jakarta, on Tuesday (30/8). Steer said, RI Vice President asked the need of the balance and the community’s international support to handle the case of bird flu. However, not many funds that was distributed to Indonesia for the handling of bird flu because of not having the clarity of the allocation of his channelling.
According to Steer, the handling of bird flu in Indonesia needed 250 million dollar AS. in 2006, the government budget for more 50 million dollar AS. Help of the international community 40 million dollar AS. 2007, the international community will give 60 million dollar AS. But was regretted, the budget of the handling of government bird flu precisely descended to 45 million US dollar.
Last week totalling 2.500 livestock of the piece chicken belonging to Harianto, villagers Srikaton, the Ringinrejo Subdistrict was burnt and buried because of being infected by the deadly virus. ‘’‘Now for the last 4 months one citizen of the Kediri Regency namely Anang Prasetyo, 17, villagers Doko, the Gampingrejo Subdistrict was treated in special space of AI RS Dr Soetomo, Surabaya as suspect bird flu. However Anang was stated by the AI negative after getting the maintenance two weeks in the AI reconciliation hospital in East Java.’‘’
I didn’t see this name above http://tinyurl.com/qqpvv
Some statistics:
The case of bird flu in Central Java cleared in 16 regencies/the city to this August 2006. This far more a little if compared to in 2005 that achieved 20 regencies/the city and 28 areas in 2004 then, he said in the Movement activity of the ‘Control of Bird Flu in’ Central Java that took place in Gradika the Jurisdiction service, on Wednesday (30/8). In this activity, was launched also the ‘Movement’ directory ‘of the Control of the Spread of Bird Flu in’ Central Java by Governor Mardiyanto that was represented by Sekda Mardjijono SH. Kusmaningsih said, Central Java occupied the fourth place, after the Special Capital District of Jakarta, Banten, and West Java. As many as two Central Javan citizens died resulting from bird flu from 3 sufferers who have had data collected on it. Children In The Meantime, Senior Programme Officer UNICEF Indonesia Marcoluigi Corsi suggested, from 62 cases of bird flu that was identified, more than 40% was children. They ‘needed our protection and indeed were our responsibility together to confirm that foundlings bertumbuhkembang in the healthy environment and safe’, said he in the meeting. According to him, there were thirteen risky areas high towards the spread of bird flu namely Wonogiri, Sukoharjo, Karanganyar, Sragen, Surakarta, Boyolali, Klaten, Grobogan, Magelang, Tegal, Banyumas, the Semarang City, and the Semarang Regency. Director RS Penyakit Infeksi Prof Dr Sulianti Saroso, Jakarta Dr Santoso Soeroso said, more than 500 cases suspect that was researched produced 62 positive cases and 47 including dying.
Influentia2 at 19:27
I am confused by the mention of 500 cases suspect/62 positive in the article above — do you think they are talking about cumulative cases of bird flu overall? In Indonesia? Or just now? Seems way too high… what am I not understanding?
I think it is 500 suspect cases from the beginning. I think the 62 positive and 47 deaths are close to WHO, on their sie it is 60 and 46 total since 2005. So I don’t think the 500 is from now.
http://tinyurl.com/k83qz Link to WHO cumulative table.
I know I am seeing more suspected cases in print than I ever have. I have been translating for awhile. I think the suspect cases are just being reported now where they weren’t as much before. If this is true I think the chart might get really long.
JMO though.
Average Concerned Mom at 20:39
Link to WHO defintions of H5N1 cases, I read this and thought maybe this is why there is more reporting of suspected cases. Just another one of my theories though.
Person under investigation: A person whom public health authorities are investigating for possible H5N1 infection.
Suspected H5N1 case: A patient who has unexplained acute lower respiratory illness with a fever greater than 38°C (100.4°F) and cough, shortness of breath, breathing difficulty, and one or more of the following exposures 7 days before symptom onset:
Close contact within 1 meter (eg, caring for, speaking with, or touching) with a person who is a suspected, probable, or confirmed H5N1 case Exposure to (eg, handling, slaughtering, defeathering, butchering, or preparing for consumption) poultry or wild birds, their remains, or their feces where H5N1 infections in animals or humans have been suspected or confirmed in the last month Consumption of raw or undercooked poultry where H5N1 infections in animals or humans have been suspected or confirmed in the last month Close contact with a confirmed H5N1-infected animal other than poultry or wild birds (eg, cat or pig) Handling human or animal samples suspected of containing the H5N1 virus in a laboratory or other setting.
Karina – at 18:26
When we get to level 6, the WHO’s chance of declaring level 4 is about 50–50.
Comment
We may just be seeing an increase in surveillance rather than a genuine increase in cases. I would vote for dropping cases that were reported negative and recovered. These are unlikely to be H5N1 cases, IMO. Including these may increase the noise so high that we can’t see meaningful patterns.
There are some very large cities in close proximity to some of the reported clusters. I would expect huge numbers of cases in in these cities if R0 was greater than 1.
Let me add my thanks to the many people working on this thread and chasing down cases. You all are doing a terrific job.
As promised I spent a couple of hours today re-reading the old posts to figure out how to do this. I agreed to track Jakarta infections. I feel more lost now than ever. I saved ten news sites to my favorites to check. I am assuming that I am not missing something, like a central news source you are already using. My next goal is to check out the formatting page. Sorry for the delay, had the day off due to storm. I’m not normally intimidated by this type of research project, just don’t want to look stupid to people I’ve come to respect so much. Which translator have you been using? The one I use for a Korean student doesn’t translate into Indonesian. Could use a little help.
Orlandopreppie – at 21:32 I use toggle text for my indo translations.
But there may be better ones.
oh yes, for others I like to go to:
http://www.humanitas-international.org/newstran/more-trans.htm
it has a bunch of different translators on one page. hope that helps.
Thank you DennisC, I’ve got it saved. Looks user friendly.
just to put it in perspective, untill recently i worked at a liberal arts college in vermont. theres a ton and a half of asian students flying ina dn out at least four times a year between breaks and whatnot. if you dont think that could be just one in a series of ground zero’s for a bird flu drop off then your lip diddleing.,,,,, blblblblblblllleeeellbbll. .
Orlandopreppie—don’t worry too much about being completely “on top” of the Jakarta stories. As it has worked out, we are all posting articles we think will further the whole story, even if they are not from our area. Michelle is reading the thread and picks up on all of them. It is good you are zeroing in on Jakarta, you might see more detail than the rest of us. If you want more links, let us know, we are all happy to share our links with you.
Please go to this link and look at the picture of what they call an isolation unit.
Monotreme,
What is your assessment of this up to now? I haven’t followed in enough detail to be sure, but it doesn’t look like it is getting worse, am I right?
And anyone else’s impression/opinion is welcome. Thanks.
annon 22. The virus is ‘creeping ever closer’ but is not there yet…expect more clusters in the future that will really wake up the naysayers and those responsible who gambled they would be retired before it hits…they guessed wrong…in my opinion.
anon_22 – at 23:14
A quick comment. The tamiflu being distributed is affecting cases to some degree I believe. It seems to help folks stay alive, but I think it also seems to muddy the water concerning identification of positives or negatives. Just an opinion, no data to back it up.
News
The pregnant woman suspected with bird flu has miscarried.
Toggletext translation:
Metrotvnews.com, Medan: the Patient suspect bird flu from the Simalungun Regency, North Sumatra, Rasmita Boru Lingga (34), that was pregnant two months experienced had a miscarriage. At this time, Rasmita was still being treated intensively in Space of the Pilgrim Adam of the Isolation of the central Public Hospital the Owner, Medan. The Rasmita condition up to now is not yet stable because still experienced breathless and feverish. It was hot that his body achieved 39 levels celcius. Doktor Luhur Breakingprep Suroso Professor, Ketua Breakingprep Tim Medis Penanggulangan Breakingprep Flu Burung Rumah Sakit Adam Malik Medan said, the team of the doctor must do terminasi or menguret the embryo that was contained by Rasmita. Professor Beadj Luhur also said, the hospital side on last Tuesday (29/8) accepted information from the Hall of the Department of the Health, Jakarta, of the Health Research that results of the sample of Rasmita blood the bird flu negative. Results of this research, according to Professor Luhur, were different to results of the clinical inspection the team of the doctor Adam’s Hospital the Owner against Rasmita that headed to H5N1. ()
anon_22 – at 23:14,
I have been watching with concern, like everyone else. But, I don’t think it’s started. This reminds of Thailand when I first started following their cases. There were lots of suspected cases. But most turned out not to be H5N1. After a while I could tell which of the suspected cases would be H5N1. If the patient died, it was almost always H5N1, especially if they were young. If they were on a ventiliator, probably H5N1. Relative of a confirmed case? H5N1. Close proximity to birds? Irrelevant. Symptoms mild and released after brief exam? Not H5N1.
My hunch is that something has finally scared the authorities in Indonesia to start proper surveillance. As a result, many worried well and people with other respiratory diseases are being investigated. That’s a good thing. Better to have too many suspecteds than miss a real case. Just wish that could do PCR on the spot and then release the results promptly. Our collective blood pressure might improve.
To me, someone with the sniffles who was near a dead bird does not equal a likely case of H5N1. But if a 14 year old dies of a respiratory disease and then his mother gets sick and is on a ventilator -that’s a likely H5N1 cluster. And I don’t care whether there were any birds near either one of them.
We have pretty well determined by now that given recent history there is going to be news…the question is where is the news going to be made.
I’m betting on China and that is the country I will be watching in the near future…and of course those countries that we do not see any reports from.
China is where most of the evolution and adaption has been occuring…it’s just that since they refuse to report cases, the new cases occur in Vietnam, Thailand etc. too make it look like it occured elsewhere.
The next significant breakout will probably be in China…whether we will ever know about it is another matter.
The wide spread nature of this outbreak says that unless the reporting has changed, then the virus has changed in many places of this country over a short period of time, to become better adapted to go b-h. We have no data beyond the excellent stats to prove it. There is an increase in rate of new cases. I think they are doing a better job of looking for them and are looking for money as part of it. I know they really need money too. I am not a complete cynic. I still think we are looking at an event at any time or a gradual change over a year or so to a pandemic. Reporting cases that show up is not nearly good enough, we must prevent these cases in humans and do wider testing or OUR goose is cooked. We have no time and we have some time…lets use it wisely. There still is a positive bump (in cases) in my predicted road ahead come the fall and winter.
I was just over at the case summaries and looked at the figure DemFromCT put up. He now has positives and deaths marked. I count deaths same as positives.
So, I may have to re-visit my opinion expressed at 00:05. Cikelet, Garut and Bekasi are all close together. If you add up deaths plus positives from these three regions you get 13. That’s alot. I think we’re going to need another week to exclude the possibility that the pandemic has already started.
Bandung has a population of 2.5 million. It is close to the three cities listed above. If there are reports of large numbers of seriously ill or dying people in Bandung, watch out.
Sure do wish they’d get on the stick with those PCRs.
Article written by a physician from Sulawesi outlining the methods they are using to diagnose H5N1.
On Thursday, August 31 2006 Bird Flu, was responded to Not Ditakuti
By: Abdullah SOME TIME BEFORE, a friend asked, was Sulawesi having an opportunity the bird flu illness, this Question I answered by saying that for Central Sulawesi, --- consisted of 1 city and 9 regency-question him not “Whether” but “When” bird flu was contagious in Central Sulawesi. Why must this question be overturned? He replied, if speaking or discussing the problem of bird flu, then might be said did not have the area that might claim himself as the free area of bird flu, remembered and saw the fact empirik in the field, the condition for the infrastructure and the management of poultry livestock breeding (Read: the Chicken) we were very serious towards the entry of the virus of H5 N1 -Avian Virus influenza ---…….
Firstly, the “case suspek” was someone who suffered the acute respiratory tract infection (ISPA) with the sign of the fever (the temperature > 38 °), the cough and orK was sick the throat and orK had a runny nose as well as with one of the situations: A. For the last week visited livestock breeding that was contagious KLB bird flu. B. Contact with the case of confirmation of bird flu in the spread period. C. Work to one laboratory that was processing the human specimen or the animal that it was suspected suffered bird flu. Secondly, the “case probable” was the case suspek was accompanied by one of the situations: A. Limited laboratory proof that headed to the A influenza virus (H5N1), for example: the HI test that made use of antigens H5N1. B. In a short time continued to peneumonia/failed breathing/died. C. Proven was not gotten by the other cause. ‘’‘Thirdly, the “case of confirmation”, was the case suspek or “probable was” supported” by one of the results of the laboratory inspection; A. Culture of the influenza virus H5N1 positive. B. PCR influenza (H5) positive C. The increase titer antibody H5 of 4 times……..’‘’ And definitely for the safety of humankind was needed surveilans active to humankind. May Allah always give the blessing and his guidance to all of us, wallahu nature. ) Dr Abdul -lah, DHSM, M. Cash, was the Section Head the Sulteng Health.
pugmom – at 23:11 - This is a picture of a normal hospital room with two patients suspected of bird flu lying in their beds. And this is in one of the designated hospitals to treat bird flu. Sigh. It’s obvious their meaning of isolation is not the same as ours. What a wonderful way to spread the disease. If all patients transit in such rooms, it’s no wonder we’re seeing cluster bubbles spurting everywhere. That does not bode well for the rest of the planet. Following is the articleCikelet, 2 more suspects or http://tinyurl.com/nxs5j
31/08/2006 08:22 - RSU isolation space the doctor Slamet, Garut, of West Java, again received two patients suspect bird flu from the Cikelet Village, the Cikelet Subdistrict.
Ridwan’s smoke and Maman entered the hospital after suffering the sign of bird flu.
Liputan6.com, Garut: After empty several times, space Slamet, Garut, of the isolation of the doctor’s Public Hospital of West Java, again received two patients. Almost simultaneously, Ridwan’s smoke and Maman entered this room because of experiencing the sign that was similar to bird flu, on Wednesday (30/8). By chance the area of the residence both of them in the Cikelet Village, Garut, had the story of many poultries died. As far as this is concerned the family of the two patients hoped the government immediately checked the poultry in their village. His article many kept poultries the citizen that died suddenly. The citizen also asked that Tamiflu medicine was immediately distributed free. (ORS/Budi’s Loyal Echo)
There are MANY articles about culling and spraying BEFORE the next monsoon season. The coming monsoon is considered a very urgent matter there. I have posted several that say the virus spreads very quickly during the monsoon season, and how very urgent it is for people to cooperate getting birds culled/sprayed, officials seem on the verge of desperation and are very concerned. This monsoon season is what I am waiting to see, but that is just my opinion.
Monotreme – at 01:44
So, I may have to re-visit my opinion expressed at 00:05. Cikelet, Garut and Bekasi are all close together. If you add up deaths plus positives from these three regions you get 13. That’s alot. I think we’re going to need another week to exclude the possibility that the pandemic has already started.
If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, and swims like a duck, it might be a duck. We are not going to doge bullets forever but one more time could be usefull :-).
The patient suspect bird flu from the Simalungun Regency, North Sumatra, Rasmita Boru Lingga (34), that was pregnant two months experienced had a miscarriage. At this time, Rasmita was still being treated intensively in Space of the Pilgrim Adam of the Isolation of the central Public Hospital the Owner, Medan. The Rasmita condition up to now is not yet stable because still experienced breathless and feverish. It was hot that his body achieved 39 levels celcius. Doktor Luhur Breakingprep Suroso Professor, Ketua Breakingprep Tim Medis Penanggulangan Breakingprep Flu Burung Rumah Sakit Adam Malik Medan said, the team of the doctor must do terminasi or menguret the embryo that was contained by Rasmita. Professor Beadj Luhur also said, the hospital side on last Tuesday (29/8) accepted information from the Hall of the Department of the Health, Jakarta, of the Health Research that results of the sample of Rasmita blood the bird flu negative. Results of this research, according to Professor Luhur, were different to results of the clinical inspection the team of the doctor Adam’s Hospital the Owner against Rasmita that headed to H5N1
Monotreme – at 01:44
I made the map Dem posted. The numbers in the labels (white font) include all cases reported, whether suspect, positive, later called negative, dead or living. The number the deaths (red) and the number that tested positive for H5N1 (light blue) has been added to give the reader some additional info concerning those included in the overall cases (white font). Michelle and I have talked about it and we know that at some point the negatives need to be removed or somehow addressed in the reporting. Right now though, with some false negatives (see Aug 30 - 23:55 post up above) or the tamiflu possilby affecting case identification, the test results are suspect in and of themselves. What does the FluWiki community suggest concerning how to address cases reported as negative.
Okieman - at 07:29, Good Morning. I feel we need to have a running tab probably posted and updated periodically of the cases that have been reported Negative. This is extremely important to me, as they may be returning. It should be in Michelle’s Summary Page but at the bottom seperately from the list. Maybe Michelle can post them negative, and then after a week, remove them and add them to the Negative List.
Another thought. Michelle emailed me the excel spreadsheet she is using to post the summary. She has recorded a tremendous amount of information about each of the cases gleened from the articles posted here on the fluwiki forum. She has relationship data (husband, wife, sister…etc), hospitals where each case is being treated, whether tamiflu is being administer, positives, negatives,…et. If Michelle is willing, that info could be uploaded into the ftp site Dude set up for the wiki. Then anyone could go through it and decide for themselves what the data indicates.
As I was writing this I got on the phone and discussed this with Michelle and she said she would be more than willing for the spreadsheet be put on the ftp site. She will email one of the mods in the next few days (times are busy right now) and work out the process. This way the summary on the forum can be an abreaviated version for a quick “looksee” and the detailed spreadsheet on the ftp site for a more in-depth view of the data gathered.
Commonground – at 07:59
Yes, I think the negatives need to be addressed in some way. I will wait and Michelle can address your suggestion since she is doing the spreadsheet.
Just be careful when uploading spreadsheets that might contain personal information (username) in hidden places. So I suggest either plain text (with separators so others can rebuild the spreadsheet) or carefully scrutinized files. Or maybe PDF will do?
Thread is really long, so closed and continued here
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