Pigs in China - The Hidden Mammalian Reservoir for H5N1?
I’m starting this thread because there have been numerous references to the fact that millions of pigs in China are dying of an undiagnosed disease. Some have speculated that it may be H5N1. I don’t have very much to add on the current outbreak, but thought I’d review some of what we do know for sure.
I have speculated in the past that there must be a hidden mammalian reservoir for H5N1 due to the progressive adaptation of H5N1 to humans here and here. One possibility is that the reservoir is pigs, in China.
The evolution of H5N1 influenza viruses in ducks in southern China
The pathogenicity of avian H5N1 influenza viruses to mammals has been evolving since the mid-1980s. Here, we demonstrate that H5N1 influenza viruses, isolated from apparently healthy domestic ducks in mainland China from 1999 through 2002, were becoming progressively more pathogenic for mammals, and we present a hypothesis explaining the mechanism of this evolutionary direction.
An alternative possibility is involvement of the pig (the postulated intermediate host) in selection. In the region of China where the H5N1 viruses characterized in this study were isolated, pigs and ducks are housed in close proximity, especially in farming villages, where families typically own a small number of pigs and ducks. Our working hypothesis is that H5N1 viruses have gradually acquired the ability to replicate in mammals by means of selection pressure created by possible transmission between pigs and ducks. To date, there are no reports of the isolation of H5N1 viruses from pigs, although pigs have been experimentally infected with H5N1 viruses (33). We have recently obtained preliminary virological and serological evidence of H5N1 virus infection of pigs in Fujian province.
Right now, I would like to know how the pig farmers in China are doing.
Monotreme. You’ve got my attention.
I don’t think that pigs are your hidden ‘furry critter’but the pigs may have picked it up from your ‘furry critter’…and also you have mentioned that disease may have occurred due to bad vaccines…is it possible that they have been playing with vaccines in pig herds that didn’t quite get killed or might they even be dumb enough to attempt to infect pigs with another infuenza strain thought to be harmless that mutated?
So, TomDVM: Are you closer to your own tipping point now?
Tom DVM,
The retracted sequences included sequences that were 100% identical throughout the entire length of a gene that had infected different pigs across 2 years. Dr. Niman saw this as proof that mutations in flu viruses are very rare. I saw it as proof that the virus had been in a freezer, in some form, possibly in a vaccine. Of course, since the sequence was pulled by the submitters, there can be no further official discussion of why the sequences were identical.
Personally, I found that whole episode extremely strange. Seeing those sequences disappear from my BLAST searches was the most chilling thing that I have ever experienced in over a year of H5N1 obsession. I don’t think I can put into words how unusual it is to completely retract sequences with no explanation. I would be only slightly more surprised if pigs started to fly ;-)
Monotreme:
That China Bug/Ebola article from Yale Global is scary. I’ve felt for some time you and Tom DVM had crystal balls. TomDVM’s constant phrase-I worry about the pigs-goes back for months. Then a few months ago that fella Joe Neubarth fairly murdered the Sinchuin Sui theory calling it Sinchuin sheet because of its transparency they were hiding something, and finally the missing Boxun reporters just about sealed the deal. I’m guessing but I think Chinese pig farmers are living through hell on earth. Keep up the good reporting! I hope that article is totally and absolutely wrong.
anon mc. Good Question. Not quite yet.
If these pigs have H5N1 then the World Health Organization would havae to know about it…and if they have this knowledge and haven’t released to the rest of the world then I will personally go over there with my scapel and start doing what I have been trained to do with a few pigs that don’t oink.
If these pigs have H5N1, then it is time to start prepping in a hurry…as fast as our legs can take us to the grocery store…and we have to somehow get the stockpiles of antibiotics etc. released and accelerated production in a hurry.
Here is the thing. I am assuming that the World Health Organization knows that this outbreak is due to strept. suis and there has been confusion in messaging…that is why my friend Dick Thompson will be doing what he does best with the press tomorrow to announce that it is definitely strept. suis.
Therefore, since it is not in pigs yet…the trigger event I have been waiting for hasn’t occured yet in any Asian country but that is not to say that it couldn’t happen tomorrow afternoon at a quarter after four etc.
My money is on those little Darkling Beetles!!! Not furry - but known to carry avian flu virus - allover the barnyard including into the pigsty, or their larva in feeds - I really wish some enterprising scientist would take a closer look at them - but that’s just gut feeling and of course, I am not a scientist!! :-))
Monotreme
They’ve been up to something all summer…I just can’t put my finger on what they are up to…but I think it is big…it may be some other pathogen than H5N1…I’m just not sure yet!!
…but they will trip up…they always do.
TomDVM:
You’re so PC! You don’t trust em, yet you’re still waiting for your buddy to squeal-I mean spill-the beans? PS-Don’t sharpen the scapel.
gharris. Although I believe that high enough viral innoculation could occur this way…you could be entirely correct…someone should definitely take a look at all possibilities.
Real scientists are endlessly inquisitive…reputations could be made over this…Nobels could be won…I don’t understand why they haven’t already done the necessary screening in wild animal populations.
It they would pay our way over, I’ll bet you a hundred flu wikians would line up to go just for the adventure and the interest!!
Sorry, should have read…I don’t believe that high enough viral innoculation could occur this way…
Tom DVM – at 22:46
I agree - with both your statements.
“Oh what a tangled web we weave,
When first we practice to deceive!”
Sir Walter Scott, Marmion
China isn’t expect BF this fall. http://tinyurl.com/nxt9u. Our own media printing this for them.
Here is a link to a news article published today http://tinyurl.com/jkerb about sick pigs being quarantined at a fair in Michagin. Here’s an excerpt from the soevening news: “KINROSS - Pigs, sheep, cattle and goats will have a prolonged stay at the Chippewa County Fairgrounds after several animals exhibited signs of possible illness.”
“It’s mainly the pigs,” said Fair Board President Dave Love describing the symptoms as diarrhea, coughing and high temperature. The remaining animals are being held in quarantine to make sure this unidentified illness is not spread to local farms throughout the community.”
I am not saing this will turn out to be H5N1, but it illustrates how quickly a disease could spread in our country ,as well, and we might never hear of it.
“Swine production in China far exceeds the production of any other country, with more than six times the number of pigs of the second biggest producer, the US. Brazil is the world’s seventh largest pork producer and dominates production in South America, with eight times the production of Chile, which ranks as number two in South America.
China is the world’s largest pork producer, and the fourth largest producer of beef in the world. One out of every two pigs in the world is located within the border of mainland China. When China becomes part of the World Trade Organization (WTO), tariffs for meat will be lowered and allow entry of new imports into the Chinese market.
China represents a growing market for imports of both pork and beef as meat products penetrate secondary cities in China; and the middle class population in urban areas is demanding more consumer-oriented meat products. There were an estimated 454 million pigs in China in 2001 (Figure 1). The world inventory was approximately 928 million head in 2001. The US had an inventory of 61 million head in 2001.
Up to 80% of Chinese production is in small family operations. These family-reared pigs consume scraps or excess crop materials as compared to a grain-based diet that would be utilized elsewhere. Larger size operations with over 100 sows are on the increase in China, but they still represent less than 20% of the total market hog supply. The vast population of China allows the majority of their production to be of the ‘backyard’ type and still keep China the number one producer in the world by a large margin. “ (excerpt)
Tom DVM – at 22:42
firing up chainsaw for Tom
Sometimes the obfuscation could just make me scream!
Monotreme,
The 2 most direct pointers to the possibility of H5N1 circulating in pigs in China come from 2 studies, one is the one that you quoted, ‘The evolution of H5N1 influenza viruses in ducks in southern China’, and the other one is Studies of H5N1 Influenza Virus Infection of Pigs by Using Viruses Isolated in Vietnam and Thailand in 2004, where, back in 2004, they found antibodies to H5N1 in 8 pigs. That may seem like a small number, but this was the first documented instance, I believe.
Then there is this Cocirculation of Avian H9N2 and Contemporary “Human” H3N2 Influenza A Viruses in Pigs in Southeastern China: Potential for Genetic Reassortment?
Even though on the surface this looks like it is about H9N2, some of the circulating H9N2 that have infected humans turn out to have the same 6 internal genes as the HP H5N1, and both of these have been isolated in humans.
If you look at all that, and there’s a lot more, you get the picture of this multiple ‘viral soup’ circulating among birds, pigs, and humans, in China and Vietnam, etc.
Given that this has been happening for several years, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if H5N1 or H9N2 or some variation of the next pandemic virus is now circulating increasingly widely in China and maybe Vietnam as well.
sorry, I meant “circulating increasingly widely in pigs in China and maybe Vietnam as well.”
Has anyone else heard about pigs being H5N1 positive without symptoms?
I remember reading a CIDRAP report about a small group of pigs that appeared to be healthy but were positive. I’ll try to find it tomorrow.
Maybe the pigs caught ‘rabies’ from all the dogs that were culled last month. Yeah, that’s it. And pigs fly.
Back in 1918, were pigs the carriers or did they die off from Spanish Flu? I thought there was a die off of pigs and they discovered that they were sick with the same virus as humans.
Klatu – at 00:16
Thanks for the info on the number of pigs in China. I had no idea it was so many.
These family-reared pigs consume scraps or excess crop materials as compared to a grain-based diet that would be utilized elsewhere.
I think this has been discussed before, but dead chickens might be some of the scraps.
anon_22 – at 00:48
Thanks for the references. Now, why pigs are so rarely tested for H5N1 especially when no infected poultry can be found near infected people is beyond me. There is ample evidence that pigs should be investigated in a systematic way. Wonder why it’s not happening. I also still wonder about the retracted pig sequences. That should have been big news. Pity it wasn’t.
aurora – at 02:26
Yes. Here it is.
Bird Flu Spreads Among Java’s Pigs
Concerns over the presence of a dangerous strain of avian flu virus in Indonesia’s pigs are growing, as government tests confirm the existence of infection. In some areas, the H5N1 virus could be infecting up to half of the pig population, without causing any signs of disease.
The initial discovery was made earlier this year by an independent researcher working outside national and international surveillance systems. Chairul Nidom, a virologist at Airlangga University’s tropical-disease centre in Surabaya, Java, found the H5N1 virus in five of ten pigs tested from Banten in western Java.
Does Banten ring a bell?
So we have a large pig die off in China where bird flu has been around for a while. We have H5N1 in a very large # of pigs ( not dying) in Indonesia where bird flu is an epidemic amoung chickens. Is someone connecting dots? I know you guys are, but what about the media, scientists?
Ruth – at 08:37
Is someone connecting dots? I know you guys are, but what about the media, scientists?
This is what I would like to know as well. When it was first reported that pigs in China were infected with H5N1, it was big news. Later, the Chinese government denied that they were really infected. Then sequences from H5N1 from pigs in China was deposited in GenBank. Then some of these sequences were retracted. The silence by the media on this issue is eerie.
When China’s choice for Director-General of the WHO, Margaret Chan, is officially installed, you can be sure there will be absolutely nothing about H5N1 in pigs in China coming out. Or any criticism of China’s policy of witholding key data. Expect the focus to shift to Indonesia or other countries which don’t have China’s ability to censor information and control the WHO. The blamegame is being set up in the endgame. Tsk, tsk, those Indonesians or those Vietnamese or those…anyone but China.
The basic problem is that public health authorities all over the world, including the US, blindly follow the pronouncements of the WHO. And the WHO is directly controlled by the Chinese government, IMO. So, if China doesn’t want an issue discussed, they relay this to Margaret Chan, the WHO pandemic flu czar, and she makes sure it doesn’t get discussed. She is very popular among many public health authorities and the media in spite of her ghastly performance in Hong Kong during SARS.
To be fair, Julie Hall at the WHO has recently critised China for witholding viral samples. Wonder if that has something to do with the fact the Margaret Chan has to take a leave of absence from the WHO while she is a candidate for the WHO. But I digress.
Monotreme. We have been waiting patiently but eventually individuals within the World Health Organization will have had enough of consistently institutionalized mandated incompetence.
Remember Maria Cheng. I may not have her name exactly right. She was one or the main public relations people along with MY FRIEND DICK…
If you go back to just after the previous head died of the brain aneuryism, Maria Cheng seemed to take the lead for a short period and appeared to me to be pushing things in a more aggressive and activist direction…
…Three weeks later she was out of the World Health Organization and is now a reporter again…maybe we should interview her and ask a few pointed questions.
Julie Hall has to be someone either who has had enough and no longer cares about repercussions or she is a person who is tired of chewing her tongue and is going to say what she has to say as a professional…and doesn’t care about the repercussions…
…which means her time at the World Health Organization will be limited…probably less than a month.
Since flu wiki is widely read by the World Health Organization employees including MY FRIEND DICK THOMPSON…
…I would ask the disgruntled and disappointed to come on flu wiki anonymously or not and simply tell us and the world the truth about H5N1, strept. suis, Foot and Mouth disease and China…
…You may lose your job but you will anyway in the end because like Maria Cheng you will subconciously do yourself in professionaly…
…and remember…when you are getting run out of town…get in front and make it look like a parade. /:0)
Can anyone find out how big is the pork export business in China? And generally how big is the trade in pork/pig products internationally, and give us links to those kinds of info?
As far as China not revealing anything about pigs is concerned, why am I not surprised?
China does not reveal anything about anything, not if she can help it, period.
This is getting very, very, serious.
anon_22 – at 10:44 Can anyone find out how big is the pork export business in China? And generally how big is the trade in pork/pig products internationally, and give us links to those kinds of info?
Excerpted from the USDA Foreign Agriculture Service’s (FAS) Pork 2006 Outlook at http://tinyurl.com/mju2z
“China’s domination grows China now accounts for more than half (53.5 percent) of the production of pork among selected countries. Thus, mall changes in Chinese production and consumption have a significant impact on the total of selected countries. The current forecast increases Chinese pork production by 2 percent from the November 2005 forecast to a record 52 million tons. With this upward revision, China will increase pork production by almost 5 percent from 2005 to 2006 due to a variety of factors including its popularity in the Chinese diet, continued higher disposable incomes, strong profitability in the pork sector, increased investment in swine and pork operations, and increased pork consumption due to AI. However, due to strong domestic demand, the current forecast sharply drops Chinese pork exports from 415,000 tons in the November 2005 forecast to 300,000 tons.”
Excerpted from FASOnline World Pork Trade Overview dated May 2005 seen here: http://tinyurl.com/pdx5g
“China: China is the world’s largest pork producer and consumer. In 2005, Chinese pork production is expected to reach a record 49.7 million tons. China’s pork industry is gradually shifting from backyard farming to commercial production with increased foreign investment and the movement of the rural population to urban areas, which drives consumption. Pork prices have remained high along with consumption and demand is largely filled with domestic production. China is the world’s fifth largest pork exporter with the majority of its products sent to other Asian markets. Exports have increased from 73,000 tons in 2000 to 383,000 tons in 2004, and are forecast to reach 450,000 tons in 2005. “
“mall changes” above should be “small changes”
“Exports have increased from 73,000 tons in 2000 to 383,000 tons in 2004, and are forecast to reach 450,000 tons in 2005.”
A ‘recipe for disaster’ of unprecedented porportions…
From FASOnline report titled “ Rising Global Demand Fuels Growth in Pork Production and Trade” at http://tinyurl.com/nk6bv
“China: Avian influenza has had a significant impact on Chinese pork production and consumption. Lingering concerns over the bird flu epidemic appears to be encouraging pork production in response to rising consumer demand. In 2005, Chinese pork production is expected to reach 47.5 million tons, a slight increase from 2004. Production costs are quickly rising. Despite prices currently reaching historically high levels, rising per capita income should help fuel Chinese consumption in 2005. Pork exports are also expected to grow significantly in 2005. While the Russian quota could limit the export potential from northern provinces like Heilongjiang, China is expected to remain very competitive in Asian markets like Hong Kong, Japan and North Korea. “
Edna. Thanks!!
And what about the USA. The threat to poultry coupled with a threat to pigs. Not good. No wonder no ones talking.
Science Teacher - at 00:16, could you please keep your eye on this? I would appreciate it very much.
Commonground. Thanks to Monotreme and Edna, there is no question where this pandemic is going to originate from…China.
What that means is that you have little to worry about from migrating waterfowl…better watch the migrating humans instead!!
Thanks Tom - I won’t worry about those pigs at the Fair then. If that’s the case, it could happen any moment, any time, anywhere.
Commonground. Yes, theoretically it could happen at a fair in the USA or Canada but this is extremely unlikely with H5N1, H3N8 or H7N7 are also pandemic candidates and they are here in North America, I think H3N8 is only in the USA at this time but I could be wrong.
As far as H5N1 goes, the only way you will have it at a North American fair is that if Chinese pigs are being shown there.
Any small doubt about H5N1 and a pandemic, that I had at the back of my mind, is pretty well gone as of this morning…I had no idea they had increased their production by that much in that short a time.
Also, there is presently a Foot and Mouth endemic epidemic, present in China that has the potential to be exported to the USA in meat products…and if you want to see an instant recession in North America, just introduce Foot and Mouth disease (it cannot infect humans by the way).
We are without a doubt in for big trouble in the near future!!
Thanks Tom - Please just give me time to get into my new home (which I haven’t picked out yet…..) We will know one way or the other if anything is going to happen with our move this Fall/Winter by September 18th. Thanks again for putting everything in plain English for me to comprehend. I won’t ask you why H3N8 & H7N7 are pandemic candidates, unless you mean they could combine with H5N1. Isn’t H3N8 the one that struck the greyhound dogs? Or was it just the dogs in kennels in Florida? Good Grief Charlie Brown.
Commonground. If I was a betting person which I’m not…I would guess December 2006 to March 2007…so you won’t have to worry about the fall.
H7 is a high pathogenic virus like H5N1. It has already caused outbreaks in the Netherlands, the USA and Canada. The strain in Holland was so transmissible it affected not only farm workers but the families of farm workers and killed one veterinarian. Some experts are more worried about this one then H5N1.
H3N8 is also a pandemic candidate not because it has affected humans but because, after several decades of relative stability, it jumped from horses to dogs…and with the contact between children and dogs…it is a real worry to jump to humans.
The chance of H5N1 pandemic starting here are remote. However, the chance of the other two starting in our backyard is less than remote.
Does the U.S. and Canada import chicken and pork from China? I thought we were producing are own and that we were exporting the rest?
“our”
seacoast — I don’t know about pork, but I was surprised last week to find a huge amount of dog food items at Costco (Cadet Brand) that were imported from China. Specifically, there were ten pound bags of dried jerky like sticks of chicken meatand other bags, which I have never seen before, from DUCK breasts. On the back, it said made in China, and made from meat that was “NOT for human consumption.” I was wondering if it came from culled animals. Also, if you look at chewies and other pet snack products made from skin, ears, rawhide, and such, you will find that at least half of them are made in China. Knowing that there are problems with human quality foods from that country (the smuggled chicken and duck intestines of Detroit, cans with lead in them, etc. and so on) I would hesitate to feed my pets foods that they have rejected for human consumption.
Also, what about Bats for the mammalian reservoirs? that is true of Nipah and SARS — why not also flu?
“Not for Human Consumption” doesn’t mean that it has been judged unfit for human consumption, just that it hasn’t been inspected and certified as fit for human consumption.
Still, like Heddiecalifornia, I wouldn’t want to feed my animals anything from China.
The EU does not allow imports of pet food from china, due, in part to AI. The US, however, allows it.
Heddie. I couldn’t disagree with one thing you have said here.
You would think, given recent history (SARS and Nipah) that the first place inquisitive scientists would go to find H5N1 would be the bat populations of Asia.
I’m also suprised they have still ruled out mosquito-borne virus. We’ve read that teh virus survives in lower temperatures now, due to mutation. We also saw that the virus does exist in blood now too. It also exists in digestive tracks.
I just don’t see how they can still be absolutely excluding that vector anymore, i.e. like West Nile.
I’ve had recurring dreams about “looking back” and thinking “I still can’t believe they were so convinced it was the birds, when all along it was so obvious…” -and thinking bugs.
Thank you Edna Mode, etc for your info.
I am less concerned about the export of the virus than about the perceived economic impact. ie powerful commercial interests will stop government openness, and not just in China.
I’m less concerned about the export of the virus because whatever internal problems they have, they are very careful about putting anything in the outside world. It’s a question of ‘face’.
The only exception to that would be if they send out food aid to say N Korea or Africa. I don’t know if they are doing that, but I suspect there is some.
anonymous – at 10:59,
thanks for the link. very useful.
heddiecalifornia – at 13:02
Pet food manufacture would probably follow much lower standards of hygiene, etc. I believe a lot of the stuff is from re-constituted ‘extracted’ proteins. They put whatever parts of chicken or pig that humans won’t eat, with bones and all, into giant vats and spin them at high speed which extracts the tiniest scraps of ‘meat’. I think, although I’m not 100% positive, that this is done at quite high temperatures so most viruses would be killed. The only transmissible disease to worry about in this context would be CJD, really.
If you want a heads-up about whether pigs in China might be infected with avian flu viruses on a big scale, watch what the Hong Kong government does. They import a large percentage of their food from China, and they are extremely careful with pathogens there. The moment there is any question about that, they will stop imports. Just my $0.02.
Good old Ralston Purina is looking better every moment!
Good old Ralston Purina is looking better every moment!
What the ! ? Ebola… out of Africa(on the wing). It’s a nightmare_
TreasureIslandGal. You could be entirely right about bugs being a vector whether flies, mosquitos or the bugs that gharris is talking about.
I believe the consensus is that the potential viral load carried by these bugs is not sufficient to induce infections in animals. I guess my question would be…what if you are infected by twenty mosquitos at the same time?…I have seen horses with hundreds of mosquitos on them at a time.
I’m not sure what the answer is but thanks for raising the point.
TreasureIslandGal – at 13:27
“I’ve had recurring dreams about “looking back” and thinking “I still can’t believe they were so convinced it was the birds, when all along it was so obvious…” -and thinking bugs. “
Thanks. Now I gotta go to Wallyworld and buy all the DEET and bug lights I can find. :-)
anon_22 – at 14:00 Thank you Edna Mode, etc for your info. I am less concerned about the export of the virus than about the perceived economic impact. ie powerful commercial interests will stop government openness, and not just in China.
You’re welcome, and I agree with you fully about the economics of the situation playing a major role. The reports above that I linked to are actually worth a full read (maybe just the 2006 overview, actually). It paints a picture of pork as a major commodity with global implications. Who knew?
Tom DVM – at 22:42 If these pigs have H5N1, then it is time to start prepping in a hurry…as fast as our legs can take us to the grocery store…and we have to somehow get the stockpiles of antibiotics etc. released and accelerated production in a hurry.
Tom, I must confess that I’ve left the sleuthing on the mystery mammalian vector to greater minds as I concentrate on helping more and more people prep, and there’s only so many threads I can keep up with. I haven’t fully digested (pardon the pun) this thread yet, but Tom, can you in a nutshell summarize why H5N1 in pigs is such an important trigger for you?
More from Tom DVM – at 22:42: I am assuming that the World Health Organization knows that this outbreak is due to strept. suis and there has been confusion in messaging…that is why my friend Dick Thompson will be doing what he does best with the press tomorrow to announce that it is definitely strept. suis.
So are you saying that you believe it is NOT H5N1 in pigs, but rather, strept. suis? And is strept. suis. in the US? My sister’s father-in-law caught something horrible last year from his pigs (lives in upstate NY). Was in a coma, almost died, massive rehab when finally recovered. Needless to say, no more pigs for them, and they are dedicated organic farmers.
seacoast – at 12:39 Does the U.S. and Canada import chicken and pork from China? I thought we were producing are own and that we were exporting the rest?
I was told by the president of the National Chicken Council via e-mail that the US is an exporter of poultry products, that the US produces more than enough poultry to meet its needs and exports the rest. I have not read every letter of the 2006 Pork Overview linked to earlier in this thread, but I believe it states that the US is a pork exporter rather than an importer.
What got me into the conversation with the NCC was a bill before Congress last spring to permit the importation of poultry products from China into the US. I believe it died on the vine, but the general idea (as explained by the guy at NCC) was that the US is bound by prior trade agreements to do this, so the US was going to (again, according to the NCC) export domestic poultry to be processed in Chinese plants and then reimported to the US. Course, it’s not like China has separate plants in which to process only US poultry, so the whole thing was another case of politicians and businesspeople employing magical thinking and lining their pockets thanks to the multiple redundancies employed in such a ridiculous scheme.
edna. I believe that it is not H5N1 that is causing the problem with the pigs in China…because the World Health Organization would know very well the implications of one million dead pigs with H5N1. It has to be either stretococcus suis or something else.
Streptococcus suis is in Canada and the USA but does not have the ability to infect humans here…once again, China has provided the world with another of its (don’t know what to put here). The bacteria has gained the unique ability to infect humans in China.
As your sister’s father in law has demonstrated, the general public does not know just how closely related pigs are genetically to humans…so anything that gets them should be a concern to the rest of us…
…and visa versa…as far as I understand it, there was no such thing as Swine Influenza until 1918 when humans gave it to pigs…a zoonosis in reverse…it has been in pig populations ever since.
The production statistics that you listed are a gob smacker. You can’t expand like that without trouble and putting that many pigs in the backyards of historically the biggest pathogen mutation factory in the world is about as bad news as I could get at the moment…but better to be fully informed then ignorant and in the dark…where the Government of China would like to leave us.
edna. H5N1 in pigs is a major trigger for me because they are just a small hop away from us…if it is in pigs there is no escaping it and I would put the time frame in weeks or months and definitely not years.
So I have been watching for a localized unexplained epidemic in pigs that then starts to spread…as a trigger.
However, even worse would be asymptomatic infections in pigs which would allow the virus to mutate at will and then pop out without the farmers and us even knowing about it…the absolute worse case scenario would be maintaining 50 % CFR in humans and 0% CFR in pigs.
OK, Tom. I get it now. Thank you for the crash course. The only question I have at this point, given your undying love for WHO, is why for a second you believe that WHO would come clean if it *were* H5N1 infecting these pigs? I’m guessing you think the implications of such widespread H5N1 in pigs would be so dire that even WHO would be forced to take some public action? I do have sympathy for the WHO folks in the trenches, but I have just about zero tolerance for the placating misinformation campaigns the WHO churns (or Chans) out.
re: Chinese chicken in the US, see this:
In a letter to Agriculture Secretary Michael Johanns, Congresswoman Rosa L. DeLauro (Conn.−3) today questioned the agency’s failure to alert 300 commercial distributors that frozen poultry they received may have been illegally smuggled in from China. Last week, federal and state officials announced that 2,000 pounds of imported poultry from China was illegally smuggled into Michigan. According to Michigan officials, the frozen chicken imports found in a Detroit-area warehouse came from areas affected by bird flu or H5N1. On May 24, a rule went into effect allowing U.S. poultry to be sent to China for processing and then returned to the U.S for sale, despite existing safeguards against products from countries with avian flu.
I don’t mean this to be a political point, but it does summarize our vulnerability to infected meat from China. I’m not sure why the same think couldn’t happend with pork.
Monotreme Trust me. There is all kind of meat from China that finds its way into the USA and Canada every day of the week. There are many ways to do it but a cute one is to ship through a third country.
An Indonesian virologist recently estimated, based on his own investigations that approximately 50% of swine in Indonesia carry H5N1. Connect the dots.
Nature, 27 May 2005
Concerns over the presence of a dangerous strain of avian flu virus in Indonesia’s pigs are growing, as government tests confirm the existence of infection. In some areas, the H5N1 virus could be infecting up to half of the pig population, without causing any signs of disease.
The initial discovery was made earlier this year by an independent researcher working outside national and international surveillance systems. Chairul Nidom, a virologist at Airlangga University’s tropical-disease centre in Surabaya, Java, found the H5N1 virus in five of ten pigs tested from Banten in western Java.
The presence of the virus in pigs is a particular worry because the animals can harbour both bird and human flu viruses, and act as a ‘mixing vessel’ for the emergence of a strain of avian flu that can easily infect humans. There are now signs that the virus could be spreading unchecked through the pig population.”
Tom, NS1, Monotreme:
Does the presence of the H5N1 in pigs signal a change in the virus attachment capablities? That is to say, what attachment sites do pigs have and is it the same kind of temperature and sugars as the human upper respiratory system?
Tom DVM – at 20:12
edna. H5N1 in pigs is a major trigger for me because they are just a small hop away from us…if it is in pigs there is no escaping it and I would put the time frame in weeks or months and definitely not years.
Klatu – at 21:06
Nature, 27 May 2005
Bird Flu Spreads Among Java’s Pigs
Concerns over the presence of a dangerous strain of avian flu virus in Indonesia’s pigs are growing, as government tests confirm the existence of infection. In some areas, the H5N1 virus could be infecting up to half of the pig population, without causing any signs of disease.
Tom: The clock is ticking please prep for yourself and family. I want to be able to meet you after this and knock back a couple of cold ones.
sorry I just couldn’t resist saying: I sure am glad pigs don’t fly.
Anon 451. Thanks for your concern.
As far as the researcher estimating that 50% of the pigs in Indonesia, I believe that Chairul Nidom did not have the data to make the estimate. It is not his fault…as Monotreme has said, we need a determined effort to identify several possible animal species.
I might as well get this out of the way now…I have had an undiagnosed health problem for a year that is steadily getting worse. I am hoping to somehow get it sorted out this fall.
If it happens that I disappear from flu wiki for a while…you will know that this is the reason and if anything else happens my wife will let you know.
With a little luck everything will turn out alright for everyone…and I will start prepping soon!!
Tom, Best of Luck. Bless You!
Tom: take care- you will be missed. I respect most of your viewpoints. If you would only prep…..
Tom Thank you for sharing with us all your thoughts, your nonprepping honesty, and now the personal health issue. Please get the diagnosis and let us know how you are doing. We are all very concerned to hear.
Kim, Dennis and NJ. Thanks for your concern. Life is a contact sport…what can I say.
Anyway, I didn’t want to put a damper on this excellent thread of Monotreme’s, it’s just that Anon 451 gave me an opportunity to get something off my chest.
So lets just carry on like it didn’t happen.
Tom- OK, back to pigs,
Can you give any insight into the role H5H1 in pigs play? How similar are their respiratory systems to ours - temps, sugars, and flu attachment sites? Does the presence of H5N1 in pig signal a mutation to warmer temps and different attachment abilities?
Dennis. I am probably the wrong one to ask about this…but I believe that pigs share both the avian and human receptors and this is the reason that they are a bridge between both species.
All I know is that we must keep it out of pigs at all costs and just look at what China has done…
…”Exports have increased from 73,000 tons in 2000 to 383,000 tons in 2004, and are forecast to reach 450,000 tons in 2005.”
…bottom line…we’re screwed.
Sorry, and by the way, that is just China’s exports and does not account for increased domestic consumption.
Tom DVM,
Don’t worry about this thread. Your health is alot more important. I’m sure you know all our good wishes are going your way.
DennisC – at 21:29
Does the presence of the H5N1 in pigs signal a change in the virus attachment capablities? That is to say, what attachment sites do pigs have and is it the same kind of temperature and sugars as the human upper respiratory system?
H5N1 has been in pigs for some time, probably since at least 2003, so this is not new. However, pigs are bad news for 2 reasons. First, they can serve as mixing vessels for reassortment or recombination or occur because they can host both human and avian flu viruses. Second, avian flu viruses can evolve directly into mammalian flu viruses in pigs. [I need to find the reference for the latter].
Tom: best wishes to you. I am not posting much these days, but I check-in every day to check things out. I wish you the very best of good fortune with your tests and hopefully improved health. April :)
Monotreme,
This may be the one you are looking for
Molecular Basis for the Generation in Pigs of Influenza A Viruses with Pandemic Potential
We have demonstrated that pig trachea contains receptors for both human and avian influenza viruses, providing a milieu conducive to the replication, and hence the genetic reassortment, of these viruses. Moreover, with continued replication in pigs, the avian viruses appear to undergo a shift in their receptor specificity to NeuAca2,6Gal linkages exclusively.
These observations suggest at least two mechanisms, both dependent on HA-receptor interactions, that would permit pigs to serve as intermediate hosts for the generation of pandemic influenza viruses (Fig. 5). In one, avian and human viruses would reassort in classical fashion, giving rise to a hybrid strain with pandemic potential (Fig. 5A). In the other, an avian virus would acquire the ability to bind efficiently to human cell surface receptors so that it could be readily transmitted to a human host without a requirement for genetic recombination (Fig. 5B).
These models may not be mutually exclusive. Quite possibly, an avian virus could combine with a human virus before or after becoming adapted to the NeuAca2,6Gal linkage, resulting in a reassortant with enhanced proliferative capacity.
:-(
anon_22, you got it. My number 1 corresponds to: avian and human viruses would reassort in classical fashion, giving rise to a hybrid strain with pandemic potential and number 2 corresponds to an avian virus would acquire the ability to bind efficiently to human cell surface receptors so that it could be readily transmitted to a human host without a requirement for genetic recombination.
This is why virologists freaked out when the first reports of H5N1 in pigs in China came out. Why they have stopped talking about H5N1 in pigs is a mystery to me. Here are some other non-reassuring references:
Although there is little evidence as to how the child contracted the infection, it appears likely that pigs in southern China were the source of infection. Characteristics shared with the European swine viruses include resistance to the anti-influenza drugs amantadine and rimantadine. Thus not only does this incident once again highlight the potential of pigs as a source of novel human influenza viruses, but also indicates the potential for emergence of amantadine-resistant human viruses.
These results show that the receptor-binding specificity of the HA is altered early after the transmission of an avian virus to humans and pigs and, therefore, may be a prerequisite for the highly effective replication and spread which characterize epidemic strains.
Oh, man. I was worried enough about chickens and now I’m freaking about pigs (and the frozen sausages I got on sale that were manufactured, well, gee, I have no idea, where).
Tom, get well ASAP. Not only do I want you to knock back a cold one with Anon451, I want to BUY you guys a round.
Here’s hoping the REAL cure for H5N1 is something lovely like a plate of red enchaladas.
“This is why virologists freaked out when the first reports of H5N1 in pigs in China came out. Why they have stopped talking about H5N1 in pigs is a mystery to me.”
Monotreme, my friend, you still do not understand the psychology of denial.
Tsk, tsk…
anon_22,
The thing of it is, the virologists I know are not in denial. Their basements are packed to the rafters with canned goods. They go around telling people “You better take this seriously.”
But this is all said in whispers. I wish more would “come out” and tell the public just how serious their concerns are. I don’t think the problem with the virologists is denial so much as it is fear of crossing public health authorities, who are in denial.
None of this explains why mammals aren’t being followed up though. How many papers does Rob Webster have on the evolution of H5N1 in pigs: 10, 20? He has publicly said 50% of the world’s population may be wiped out in a pandemic. He’s not in denial. Why doesn’t he make a big deal about testing mammals, especially pigs?
Tom-I hope your illness is not undiagnosed because you have not been to the doctor. Here on the homefront I’m dealing with a husband who has not had a check-up since he was drafted to go to Vietnam:-)- last time I went to the clinic, my doctor asked how he was doing and then advised just to call the ambulance when he falls over.-I really enjoy your input on this forum and read all your posts-please take care of yourself the same way you are taking care of us. and darn tom-I thought of you as the “not average male” !! (sorry guys)
Tom DVM: Your health news has shocked us all.
You can’t disappear because the “groundswell of fluwiki vets” would then drop to 1 and that would be totally unacceptable!
PLEASE make sure you go to an MD who KNOWS SOMETHING about your profession, potential occupational exposures, etc.
You would be a large animal vet, damn you! If you were a small animal vet I might be less concerned, but large animal vets are pretty stoic and it has probably taken a lot to convince you to look into this.
One of my old vet teachers used to say “Don’t worry…animals tend to survive despite the best veterinary care.”
May that sentiment hold true for you as you enter into the evil world of the MDs. Best of Luck, Good Friend!!!
worrywart. Thanks I would’t want to leave you with a false impression…and you will get a kick out of this one. I in fact have been to three specialists and have made I think four trips to the hospital…
…The first specialist wasn’t sure so he sent me to two other specialists and they decided in their wisdom that it is all in my head…in fact one told me that there are just some minor annoyances that you have to live with…I now know what it is like to be a woman when the doctor said…’now don’t worry dear, it is all in your head’.
You know and I almost believed them…but the ‘tincture of time’ didn’t fix the problem and the minor annoyance has turned into a bit more…so I did actually go to the doctor…
…the prepping thing is just a mental block of sorts.
by the way your husband might get a kick out of this…
…the mans prayer from the Red Green Television Show…PBS I believe in the States.
I’m a man…I can change…If I have to…I guess. /:0)
Tom,
Sorry to hear that you are not well. Hope everything works out. Take care of yourself, and get well soon.
Thanks Many Cats…I’m not going down without a fight.
Tom DVM: I don’t know what you’ve got, but I have heard several stories of LA vets having undiagnosed problems and MDs telling them it was all in their heads and it turned out to be Brucellosis…just a thought.
anon 22. Thanks!!
Many Cats. I did get into a bit of a mess with live brucellosis vaccine about twenty years ago but I’m pretty sure that my problem is cardiovascular in nature and may be more genetic then related to my profession…I actually was quite cautious as a practising veterinarian because partially because of that rare allergy to rabies vaccine.
Tom DVM: If it makes you feel any better, they didn’t tell us about the potential side-effects of rabies vaccines (if youe didn’t read the fine print) until AFTER we got the shots!
By the way, that old vet teacher I quoted above has had 3 sextuple bypasses and is still going strong years later. He said he is going to donate his body to a medical school when he dies. I feel sorry for the 1st year med student who gets his body and thinks that is what a normal heart is supposed to look like!
Keep Fighting!!! (and get a 90-day supply of any meds the MDs prescribe) :)
Tom, “If only the hands that reach could touch”, we would all give you a hug.
Please rely on us all for support.
Many Cats. Actually, they conned our veterinary class to be the first human guineau pigs for the first human diploid rabies vaccine developed in 1981. They said that we would have to have the vaccine in the future and would have to pay 200 dollars for it…or we could recieve the vaccine free this way. The vaccine didn’t go any further due to localized reactions.
I recieved a booster a year later of another human diploid vaccine and ten days later sort of collapsed and then lay on the couch for about ten days without being diagnosed…give it a little time…you will get over it. Well, it looked like someone took a baseball bat too me and eventually it was found to be an allergy not to the vaccine but to the impurities in the carrier.
I did require a booster after that once due to a rabid cow (I live in what used to be the highest rabies area of the world). I was given the vaccine intradermally over several hours prepped for the adrenaline etc.
They contacted the CDC about it and I think I was one of three reported cases worldwide of this delayed reaction.
Now, it seems I am back in the same boat again…Oh Well.
A doctor told me to lay on the couch, I would get over it.
Science Teacher Thanks for your kind words. I think I’ve sort of knocked this thread off the rails.
Tom DVM: I’ll stop now, but as Monotreme said at 22:58, friends are more important than threads. Take Care and keep us informed if it does pry into your private life too much. Even we agnostics will pray for you!!!
Tom,-glad you had it checked out and sorry they give you the run-around:-( Hope you find out what’s going on and get quick treatment. keep us updated- this group will be your motivator, ha!
Ummm… does “not” pry into your private life… OK…stopping now…
Tom, The thread will get over it. Your friends here???? What cardiac tests have been done? Results? All you need is for some MD to tell you it’s due to Male Menopause. We are here for you! gina
Tom DVM, I’m very sorry to hear you’re having health problems. I hope everything works out and you’re well soon. (No doubt whatever it turns out to be you’ll just kick it in the butt and that’ll be the end of it:-)
Whatever your belief I’ll be praying for you.
Thanks everyone. Gina…I take it as a learning experience and a priviledge to have been given that pat on the head twice realtively recently.
Tom DVM — best wishes for a speedy resolution to your health problems. Hey, perhaps you should let the hive mind here attempt a diagnosis! I’m beginning to believe that there’s nothing that this group can’t figure out!
Monotreme - at 00:41
>anon_22,
>The thing of it is, the virologists I know are not in denial.
>Their basements are packed to the rafters with canned goods.
>They go around telling people You better take this seriously.
>But this is all said in whispers. I wish more would
> come out and tell the public just how serious their concerns are.
>I donot think the problem with the virologists is denial so much as
>it is fear of crossing public health authorities, who are in denial.
the problem is, that they refuse to specify the thread
with probability estimates and/or expectation values
and discuss these. So, they _are_ somehow in denial.
Their warnings can be interpreted just how the authorities would like.
>None of this explains why mammals arenot being followed up though.
>How many papers does Rob Webster have on the evolution
>of H5N1 in pigs: 10, 20? He has publicly said 50% of the worlds
>population may be wiped out in a pandemic. Hes not in denial.
he is. He switched to “no one knows” after that interview.
Se his insignificat letter to revere.
He doesnot repeat that 50% statement.
Nor does he deny it, though. Well, so I mean,virologist
are nonspecific, rather than “in denial”.
>Why doesnot he make a big deal about testing mammals, especially pigs?
funding ?
Tom—gotta throw my two cents Canadian (what is that worth in USD? LOL). Stay well, check in on us occasionally to keep us all in line, and I am squirreling away a nice Canadian whiskey for you when this mess is over with.
It’s an overworked phrase, but I like it: Live Strong.
Tom,
Please drop me a note this week at the email in my profile or at the private email that will likely get to you via other means.
Has any one got any more information about the pigs in China The promed article has been out for over 3 days now, yet no explanation for the deaths has been made public that I know of. Has anyone heard anymore?
First thing, Tom - big hugs, group hugs, wiki hugs. Oh the human machine is such a complicated one and we are such demanding owners - especially when things start to go wrong! Be well my friend - and special thoughts to your family too as they work through this with you.
Second thing - why aren’t the virologists making more noise? Who is giving them air time? Even if Webster put out a media release every day what are the chances that 10% of them would see space? Also, if he keeps saying 50% and he gets it wrong - all his credibility is lost - the same reason he says that we don’t know when or even if H5N1 will eventually be the cause - make one slip and you will never get heard again (let alone retain research funding).
Third thing - why isn’t there a big deal about testing mammals - again, unless the media is interested in reporting mammal tests, how do we find out?? The VLA in the UK used to have a web page showing samples they were testing for H5N1 and they (had to / were made to) closed it down! Name one investigative journo who has picked up on any of this, and if they have, has been able to convince their editor it is worth reporting?
And one last thing - pigs and viruses scare the #@*** out of me. And have we as humans really helped the situation by either making them the best food-scraps recycling mammal on earth or, alternatively, creating grain-fed over-antibiotic-fed almost-battery raised export earners?
TomDVM, I’m so sorry you are not well. I’ll be thinking about you and hope you are better soon. Keep in touch with us. Your insights and wisdom will be greatly missed.
Tom -
The very best to you! What you have contributed here on the wiki has been an act of humanity and I am sure that I can say that you will be in our thoughts and prayers…you are one of the best1
TomDVM, I hope you will be feeling better soon, too. If you want me to research anything via computer or at the University of Colorado Medical Library in Denver, please let me know. Dem has my email address.
TomDVM - good thoughts coming your way from this dedicated lurker - I feel that I have benefitted greatly from your insights. Hang in there and let us know how it goes with you. We’re all pulling for you.
Tom DVM - I will be praying for you. You are a greatly valued voice on this forum.
WIT
Tom,
Since you think this is cardiac in nature and nobody seems to know what it is and jsut thought it was all in your head at first, I want to share this with you:
Here in Tampa Bay, about 3 1/2 years ago something very strange happened to me. I started having weird chest pains that I worried were a heart attack. I was rushed to the ER and they did a bunch of tests. A few days later, same thing. I am strong as an ox and these chest pains, including aching arm and back, kept coming and going. Sometimes they would wake me up. I saw 3 doctors over 2 months and nobody could figure out what it was. I had “stress tests” done and received a clean bill of health, but obviously something was wrong. Finally I was at the doctors and had an “attack”. They were immediately able to “see” an irregular, hard pumping beat and I was in obvious distress. Then it just “went away” as it kept doing. But while in the ER that time, the ER Doc told me how they have been getting MANY people in the ER over the last few months with these “unexplained mini-heart attacks” that just would go away. He thought it was very strange!
I worked with troubled teens at the time and a few of them started having these unexplained chest pains too. Same thing… rush to the ER to find nothing.
FINALLY, in a local paper they had a small story about the huge number of people locally being similarly treated. (this was a year later) Supposedly there was a contagious virus going around that was causing a strange infection of the chest lining. It went from the lungs and settled mostly around the heart. There was no treatment and in many people it would just fade away after a few months.
I still get these chest pains now and then, but they usually don’t last as long and are less frequent than they used to be.
It pissed me off that the hospitals weren’t making a bigger “to do” over it at the time since I figured they were milking a lot fo emergency room bill money out of people when they already knew what was going on (especially from young patients). But, they explained to me that if they put out a public notice about this, that many real heart attacks may be dismissed as just this virus.
Supposedly it was just a local issue for about 2 years… but if it was contagious here, I’m sure it could be everywhere by now, with the same “silence” by the medical community. Only ER folks may have a clue about it, because of frequency of seeing it I would think.
You may want to check into this possibility if it sounds familiar. I don’t know where you live, but hopefully this is “all” you have. ;)
TomDVM: Please take NS1 up on his offer. You need a good, science-based alternative look at your situation. The fact that your problem has simmered for such a long time gives me hope that this malady could be tweaked nutritionally/herbally. Maybe not enough for a “cure”, but enough to help the symptoms and the ultimate outcome.
I have had experience with myself and others in using science-based solutions for life-threatening maladies. Quality of life and outcomes were significantly affected. I have read virtually every post that NS1 has made (as have you). He has the “right stuff” with the right balance. He would be sure to do you no harm and maybe some great good. I am a dabbler. He is an expert.
I will say no more of this problem. We all want you well.
TomDVM: Your generous contributions have 1.greatly contributed to my ability to understand the issues and 2.motivated me to obtain the supplies needed.
Please do whatever it takes to return quickly in good health. I thank you for taking the best care of yourself that you can…as you have done for us.
TomDVM,
I am sorry to hear about your situation. I hope you figure this out and get well soon.
Tom, Email me at anon_22 AT hotmail DOT co DOT uk. I have a message for you.
TomDVM: Most people in your situation would withdraw and internalize…thanks for kicking us up a notch, and for being a true humanitarian. Good luck.
Treasure Island Gal: Did they ever give the virus a name or isolate it? Could you cite any articles news or other on it? As I was reading your story I thought it was AFib until you got to the contagious viral segment. Did you have decreased respiratory function? What exactly was the treatment? Time?
Leo, I will try and locate an old article. I was on the very early to come down with it list. I went to the VA (disabled Vet) and was the first case they had. By the time I took my stress test 2 months later, they had had over 60 other patients report to their ER with similar. My primary Doc there is also a Doc at Tampa General and she told me that she had seen and heard of cases showing up there as well.
The new “disease” was a big mystery for a long time. They had a lot of assumptions, but they all started with it being in your head, or “stress” or a form of anxiety attack. I remember the ER telling the kids that I was taking to the hospital that, and rolling my eyes at the time… finally I asked the head ER nurse if I could speak with the attending doc because I knew of a possible cause. Heck, I may have been the carrier that gave it to the kids in retrospect.
It was literally liek 6 months later when my mom saw a short blurb in the newspaper and showed it to me, saying “maybe this is what has been bothering you”. It seemed to be the same symptoms as described in the article.
My partner also got this virus. She had really bad attacks for a few months too. I haven’t seen or heard of her having any in recent months, but I still get maybe one a week. -and it has been 3 years+. I’ll try to locate a link to the old story.
Edna Mode – at 19:16… “I was told by the president of the National Chicken Council via e-mail that the US is an exporter of poultry products, that the US produces more than enough poultry to meet its needs and exports the rest. I have not read every letter of the 2006 Pork Overview linked to earlier in this thread, but I believe it states that the US is a pork exporter rather than an importer.”…. It doesn’t sound like the President of the National Chicken Council actaully answered your question (he didn’t read every line , therefore he can not give an absolute answer). He didn’t say “We do Not Import Poultry or Poultry products”…. He said “he US produces more than enough poultry to meet its needs”…. Change the subject, think Oil. We need all the oil we can get our hands on yet the US continues to Export oil to other nations….. I think he gave you one of those answers that seem reasuring until you look at the wording….Tom DMV…take care, buck up…you will be missed…you have become an important part of this forum.
G, nothing much to say about “Pigs in China”, but at least now I can rationalize why you haven’t been prepping, Thomas…
OK, ya gotta get this problem fixed, because if this SHTF, you will probably find yourself working side by side with the rest of us (human) HCWs.
If you think it’s cardiac: quit drinking that Canadian whiskey! Find yourself some of that good Canadian ice wine - red, of course. Eat some dark chocolate (70% minimum). Lose any extra weight (from eating the dark chocolate). DO NOT smoke. Control your blood sugar and blood pressure. Take your baby ASA, omega-3s, CoQ−10, statins.
Get a cardiac cath and echocardiogram. If this IS cardiac, you can be much healthier AFTER any repair than prior IF you correct any contributing factors. I see it all the time.
Now, it probably will be difficult for you to go see a HUMAN physician. You must actually SPEAK to them. (I realize you are not used to your patients actually verbalizing…what a challege.) Whining like a puppy is usually not tolerated well. Don’t accept mere pats on the head. Get some objective data.
Good luck on your healthcare journey. Take care of yourself.
TomDVM I think you can tell that all of us here at the Wiki have great affection and respect for you. Take the best care of yourself for your real family and your wiki-family. Many, many prayers and good wishes are sent on your behalf.
TomDVM— please accept my sincere wish for the full and timely recovery of your health.
Tom DVM -
Best wishes for a speedy recovery!
TreasureIslandGal: A close friend of mine just yesterday told me he’s been going through the EXACT same thing as you describe — along with finally (at age 52 with no prior history of anxiety) being told it is likely stress. If you can find out any information or past links I would greatly appreciate it.
God bless you Tom! You’re in my prayers!
I had the same problem as mentioned by TreasureIslandGal. They diagnosed it as an infection of the perocardium sac. It comes back once in a while but it’s not as severe as it was about six years ago. Thanks for the info.
Well…(10 second pause)…What can I say?
Yesterday, Anon 451 gave me an opportunity to get something off my chest. I have come to have great respect for my colleagues on flu wiki and had watched everyone get concerned about Nilolai this summer…so I thought I would slip my comment in and if I did have to remove myself for a while, someone would pick up on it and would let everyone know…because I wouldn’t want anyone to think that I just walked off into the dark…its not my style.
I should have known that I couldn’t slip anything past you guys. Anyway, I would like to thank you from the bottom of my heart for your good wishes. I am a very lucky man. I have a wonderful wife and daughter and I have colleagues and friends…both at the same time.
Of course Medical Maven flushed me out and so did Anon YYZ before now so they already knew…you can’t get anything past those two…I think they are both witches /:0)
Also, I would like to thank annon and NS1 for offering to help me out. I really have been at a bit of a loss for a while where to turn next so I’m sure it will help.
Anyway, As I have said before…I came on flu wiki for two reasons 1) to learn from you which I have and 2) to offset the comments that anonymous posted today with perfect timing…check out Calling WHO Dick.
I’m sure I have more to learn from you but I really have completed the mission for which I made my first post I think in late January or early February.
Thanks again everyone…you really didn’t have to say anything…I already knew what a caring group you are and like I said before…if they would let you run things…we wouldn’t be in the spot we are in today.
Always Remember: If you are getting run out of town…Get in front and make it look like a parade. /;0)
anon22 and NS1…I will e mail both of you as soon as I get time.
Tom DVM – at 17:51 Tom, I am speachless, howwever, if “it” does not happen before spring, My spouse and I will take a short vacation to Canada, I truly look forward to meeting you and our spouses can go shopping and talk about the “icky” nuts. We can sit and enjoy the best that mother nature has to offer. I have developed a very high respect for you and I value your insight and opinion.
I will see you in spring
Jerry
Undiagnosed is a problem. I had severe chest pains for some time, which turned out to be reflux. After pills and trial and error I discovered it was caused by the most popular diet drink. Gave that up and was off medication.
I have a “dumb question”. It isn’t exactly about pigs, but is about “Mammalian Reservoir”.
They are giving a lot of Tamiflu out in INDO. Does someone who was exposed to H5N1 and given Tamiflu develop immunity to H5N1? The point is if they do not develop immunity; does that mean that we might expect more cases as soon as the Tamiflu stops? As I understand it the Tamiflu mainly just suppresses the multiplication of the virus and doesn’t really kill it and I have no idea if there is some kind of threshold of virus load to establish immunity.
Can some of you med wizards clear this up for me?
Hi Dennis. I guess it comes down to the two potential uses of Tamiflu.
If you give Tamiflu to someone who is already infected and exhibiting clinical signs then they would have immunity afterward.
However, your intuition becomes important when Tamiflu is used as a preventative of prophylactic. In that case there would be no immunity and you are exactly right in thinking the community coming off Tamiflu would be suceptible to H5N1.
Anon 451. /:0)
Tom DVM – at 23:20
Sounds like we should really watch close about 7 to 10 days after they stop Tamiflu “blanket”.
Dennis. You probably already know that I do not have any faith in Tamiflu or the ‘Tamiflu blanket’.
I’m sure you have had to implement plans that were designed by experts in the Ivory Tower, long and far removed from the ‘real world’.
A large animal farm veterinarian fights this battle on several levels at the same time…all the time.
This Tamiflu blanket thing might work in theory…it ain’t ever going to work in practise.
Remember in Karo last spring…they thought the Tamiflu was causing the disease and waited till the regulators left and threw the pills away…I would like to see them plan for that eventuality.
You are right again…as soon as they are off Tamiflu (if it works in the first place and that has not been determined yet) they will be fully susceptible to H5N1.
I don’t like a drug with neurological side-effects being given to healthcare workers in unbelievably high levels of stress for long periods…in completely off-label and untested situations…they are going to be in enough trouble with out this on top…in my opinion…
…but hey, it’s hard to get around that drug lobby…they are the inventors of spin.
Tom DVM – at 23:41
Remember in Karo last spring…they thought the Tamiflu was causing the disease and waited till the regulators left and threw the pills away…I would like to see them plan for that eventuality.
Indonesia learned a lesson. In Cikelet and other places where they put out the Tamiflu blanket, the patient has to come to the Command Post (or treatment center) and take the pill in front of the HCW every day - at least that’s what I got from the news.
I hold out little hope that Tamiflu will work as well. Once this goes H2H there will not be enough for billions of people- even if it worked and it is unimaginable to me that billions of people could keep taking it until the virus is totally irradicated. Once the virus has gone H2H, I figure it will be with us for years if not forever.
I am asking about it mainly to time my “attention”. I figure if I start seeing a spike up in cases in a week or two, that it will signal that it cannot be contained by “their current plan”.
ANON - YYZ. Thanks. I didn’t know that. I wonder how many are refusing treatment…I’ll bet you it’s a very holey(I have no idea how to spell holy) blanket.
Dennis. There is two ways this might happen.
1) H5N1 has already produced the pandemic virus several times and is going to produce the same mutations required repeatedly…but it has not taken off. What it needs is a confluence of events…remember SARS…everything was contained until the Doctor travelled to Hong Kong, infected and sick, stayed in a five star hotel and got on an elevator with several other people including two from Canada and one from Vietnam…and others. The stars line up and it just goes without anyone knowing about it to a busy airport etc…one day and its around the world.
2) The second way this happens is a ‘slow burn’…they get the H-H and they get the sequences in a few days that show several mutations at once…and they know right then its going…like a brush fire (didn’t you say you worked as a fire safey expert)…
…then what you are going to see is a lot of things happening in the background followed by the activation of army units and then some coordinated television appearances by heads of governments.
I’m pretty good at reading what they are thinking rather than what they are saying publically…and since Karo all the backroom talk will exactly mirror what we have been talking about on flu wiki…same arguments…same everything…scary isn’t it.
They know it’s coming…they just aren’t talking.
It occurs to me that perhaps the Cikelet response was a deliberate dress rehersal: It was perfect for testing the second plan version and figuring out whether the T blanket can be made to work in typical Indo settings. The village was physically isolated, quarrantine was easier than it would be in a more populous area, and they had a better idea how to deliver meds. They also knew pretty early that this wasn’t the real thing, because the growth rate was less than exponential. So they used it as an exercise to find out how effective their current plan would be. Note that the WHO didn’t endorse using the T blanket at Cikelet, because they also knew it wasn’t the real deal, and would fizzle out on its own. I think we are not giving the Indo health authorities enough credit; I think it took a lot of guts to make the decision to try seeing how a quarrantine would work.
The bottom line is that this virus is now producing pandemic ready mutations every day…and is going to continue doing the same thing every day in the future…until it takes off.
I think the odds are 100% because when it jumped out from Q. Lake last year, it passed the ‘tipping point’.
Tom DVM – at 00:13
I’m pretty good at reading what they are thinking rather than what they are saying publically…and since Karo all the backroom talk will exactly mirror what we have been talking about on flu wiki…same arguments…same everything…scary isn’t it.
They know it’s coming…they just aren’t talking
Tom I think you are spot on, and not only are they not talking to the average Joe they are not letting it get down to the worker bee level. If they did they could not stop the leaks and lot of them would show up here IMHO.
Anon 451. I am not the poster boy for ‘whistleblowers’…it is not easy…but with flu wiki they can do it, be anonymous and keep their jobs…seems like the perfect solution to me…
…the truth is however, that no one is going to say anything about bird flu now that is going to surprise anyone here…this group has been ahead of the wave most of the time since I got here in Jan-Feb 2006.
Same thing for the whistleblowers…nothing would be a surprise…we pretty well have it pegged from my many years of experience on all sides of the desk.
Sorry, that last line got lost somewhere in the translation. I meant to say that from my many years on both sides of the desk…I think that flu wikians have it pegged right!!
anonymous – at 00:16
If you read the Indonesian news, the general sense is wide spread panic and knee jerk reaction from officials, and some time despair. I don’t think it was a dress rehearsal. After Karo, they have to pull out all the stops. Indonesians think it could happen any place any time in their country. Cikelet is not the only place given the Tamiflu blanket (2200 people). This was followed by another region (I think it’s Sulawesi or Sumatra) with Tamiflu for 4400 people. There were Command Posts set up in Sibolga, and road blocks set up at Saribudolok etc etc. I see them doing THE containment on Nabarro’s slide, only WHO not endorsing it so politically won’t have to call it desperate and only have to call it bad judgment.
They are in the ‘realization phase’ of a special treatment and training center for bird flu at Tangerang, Banten. They are targeting to be ready by October working with the Japanese a human vaccine. They have committed local manufacturing capacity and licensing for Tamiflu. They have ordered poultry vaccine from China. The Vice President of Indonesia is handling the discussions with the World Bank - how much higher can you go. It is desperate, but cannot be called as such.
Tom DVM In your opinion, what does your gut tell you? How long do you think we have before this thing goes over the charts? I anguish at the thought, I feel we are a degree away from boiling point. Still have a lot of preps to take care of, do I get this done within the week or two? Am I Looney tune or Chicken Little?
Sabrina
Sabrina I guess I’m a crammer…I envy you having most of your preps done…I am still a little paralyzed by it all…kind of like the deer caught in the headlights…so to speak.
How long do we have…well, that is the million dollar question.
If you asked me as a professional I would tell you that I have my own opinions on time but I would have to say that no one knows… could be a day a year or ten years.
As a scientist who collects seemingly unrelated outliers and random dots and turns them into patterns in nature…I would say sometime between Dec. 2006 and Apr. 2007. If you really wanted me to pin point it I would say Feb.- Mar 2007.
If it is in those time periods you will get a hint from the regulators. Don’t just listen to what they say…watch their eyes and their body language…once they know its going for sure you might see a change…or it may have already happened after Karo this spring in Indonesia…not sure!!
Tom DVM — What is it I learn after two days’ absence? You’re unwell? Now then, it must be your heart fluttering because I was so far away (lol)
If there’s anything I learnt from my two husbands’ illnesses is that a doctor only looks for something he knows, and that his knowledge is limited. Not only that, but they only look for the 90% cases, not the 10% which they don’t even have the idea that exists. If the doctors even know about the 10% of rare illnesses, they won’t bother because such 10% illnesses are more expensive to treat than the 90% ordinary illnesses. And they’re too proud to look at science publications, and most of the time they can’t even connect the dots between 5 publications on the same subject and their patient. [No disrespect meant to Fellow FluWikians doctors though who have a greater mind than those I describe]
Therefore, if your gut is telling you something is amiss and even the local specialists, or the seconds-in-charge of the hospital department, do not know what it is and keeps multiplying the tests, then you must go to the very top of the cardiologists in the very biggest hospital of your country (Canada, yes?). If you have something rare, it stands to reason, if only on the basis of demographics, that in the biggest hospital of the country, the top cardiologist will have seen cases such as yours. You’ll recognize ignorance tactics like this:
Mr. X, we’ll do a blood [urine, whatever…] test this afternoon. We’ll have the results on Wednesday. On Thursday, we’ll discuss your case with colleagues. We’ll contact you late Thursday to let you know. Thursday - no call. You call Friday. Embarrassed Dr. says, please come in Monday and we’ll discuss this. You go Monday: well, we couldn’t identify exactly what it is, but we think that to make sure, we’ll make an ultrasound [phones dept. and makes appt. for Wed.]. You go Wednesday. Tough luck, the operator is a youngster and he says he can’t discuss it with you (as he’s actually seeing the flows of the arteries to your heart on the screen]. He’ll have the report drafted in the afternoon, but needs OK from his bosses, so the final report will be Friday [pls phone Friday]. You phone Friday, but Dr. in the Dept is occupied with emergency. And so on, and so on. So on the Monday, you call the doc in charge who tells you, he has a suspicion it’s a bit more complicated, so they’ll do further blood [etc.] tests on Tuesday morning, perhaps propose pushing some tubes inside you on Wednesday, just to make sure that the root cause is not, say, in your clolon [lung, liver, whatever] and of course your case will be discussed on the Department brief on Thursday. So let’s go ahead and do some more examinations and if we don’t have an answer by Friday, we propose to have you in for a few days the week after…
By the time you have an inkling something is bothering them, three weeks have passed in useless examinations (useless because they can’t read the results of the tests). So you go to the internet and start pulling all the medical papers, you read. You use your yellow marker. You find that dot 1 plus dot 2 plus dot 3 plus dot 4 = Illness X or Y. So then you make appt with Dr. and bring the litterature. And Dr. starts getting angry but cannot voice it (you’re the customer after all). So you say you want a second opinion. And you’ve lost another week and made all of them angry because you dared think for yourself and actually show them the pits of their pride and ignorance.
Tell you what:
You take copies of all the files, tests, etc. Then you identify on the Internet the very best specialist in the biggest hospital of the country. If none so outstanding in your country, look to US of A, various European countries too. You fax him, personally, a 2 page letter requesting a second opinion, shortly describing what ails you and the results of the tests that are significant according to your Internet searches. Start your fax with something like “Dear Colleague” and finish with “Best [whatever you say in Canada that is nice and friendly]”. You should get a phone call for an appointment within 2–3 working days, an appointment within a week, and a diagnosis and proposed treatment during your first consultation with the big professor. These Professors usually know very well what happens in local/district hospitals and the number of lives lost because of sheer pride and stupidity. In addition to which, these Professors relish having another unusual case for their publications, so use this weakness!
Don’t forget to go with a full medical file. Have your wife/friend/S.O. type up the chronological history of your medical life, and take this medical history file on diskette, to make the Professor’s job easier when he dictates to his secretary for your new file at that hospital.
How you identify that Professor/his Dept.? Internet, pubmed.com, search cardiology and whatever symptoms ail you. For differentials: emedicine.com.
Take care Tom DVM. Even the b----- Frenchie loves you.
P.S. Better do a little prepping, ‘coz I might make you and your family suffer my lovely cooking after the pandemic when I come visit Canada…
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