Continued from here
Opening post on last thread:
Monotreme – at 22:20
Pigs in China - The Hidden Mammalian Reservoir for H5N1?
I’m starting this thread because there have been numerous references to the fact that millions of pigs in China are dying of an undiagnosed disease. Some have speculated that it may be H5N1. I don’t have very much to add on the current outbreak, but thought I’d review some of what we do know for sure.
[snip]
I have speculated in the past that there must be a hidden mammalian reservoir for H5N1 due to the progressive adaptation of H5N1 to humans here and here. One possibility is that the reservoir is pigs, in China.
Sorry I’m not following along as closely as I should, but with millions of dead pigs on their hands they still can’t come up with a diagnosis of what it is that is killing them? We are supposed to believe that? How often do massive pig die-offs occur for no discernible reason? I know China has not always been that forthright with sharing info. Based on past experience, how long do we typically need to wait before we find out the real facts?
Based on past experience, how long do we typically need to wait before we find out the real facts?
From China? Maybe a year or more…although they have been a little bit more open lately.
Just a thought — NewsNow has a report that China is the first to have a real working vaccine for bird flu. Is it possible that the pig disorders could be a spin off from rapid careless testing of less than prime and pure strains of virus for vaccines or genetic engineering? Would explain why they wouldn’t share tests/samples for testing etc. with anyone else on record.
I was reading about a guy that was working for plant GMO companies in the U.S. , and heard how they were doing as many gene splicing expiraments as possible to come up with product for sale. Anyhow, they used quick and dirty methods to insert genes into plant DNA, and as a result, they often had bits and pieces of RNA and DNA and protein fragments getting stuffed into the DNA chain at odd places, or hanging off to one side or another. (Can you tell I am not a professional on this.) He said that it was really easy for these bits and non-functional pieces to cause havoc in unforseen ways, such as acting like prions or viruses, or creating plants with really undesirable traits. More problems even downstream when the plants could wind pollenate with others — anything could come if it, theoretically.
Made me think of Morgellons disease, where odd fibers start growing out of peoples skin.
But anyway, China probably has even fewer controls on people working on government/business oriented projects like vaccine development than we in the west have on our hypercompetitive GMO companies.
It always looks worse to us when China does it, but golly, same things are going on in our backyard and it’s been impossible to deal with them here. Current anthrax vaccines have one company paying over 2.5 million dollars to lobbyists to hobble its competitors’ contracts for a new vaccine.
heddiecalifornia – at 17:44
I’ve also been watching that situation develop with similar ideas (unplanned genetic modification). I’m waiting for the genetic sequences on the fibers.
There are a couple of items in the News Thread for today about China saying there is a ‘small problem’ with some pigs dying and a new edict that all epidemics must be reported within 2 hours …
AnnieB – at 20:31
I read that as 2 hour reporting for human epidemic. Did I miss something?
From ProMed
UNDIAGNOSED DISEASE, PORCINE - CHINA (02): REQUEST FOR INFORMATION
Given the reports of over a million dead pigs, many of which appear to be in village settings, the disease is clearly widespread. Secondly, death is reported to occur in over 40 percent of pigs, definitely making this a high-mortality event.
The big question is what disease is causing such widespread mortality in swine? Clearly, “high fever” or “blue ear” disease is not a diagnosis, rather they are signs of an undiagnosed and seemingly systemic disease. “Blue ear” was used by Europeans as a slang name early on for the recently emerged Porcine Respiratory and Reproductive Disease, but this does not generally cause such widespread mortality among all age groups. Discoloration of the skin can be seen in several swine diseases including erysipelas and salmonellosis.
Such high mortality and the widespread nature of this outbreak — as well as the control measures instituted — prompts one to think of epidemic swine diseases such as Hog Cholera (as known as Classical Swine Fever) or African Swine Fever. However, I hope that the Chinese authorities are carefully considering the possibility of Swine Influenza usually caused by H1N1, H1N2, or H3N2 in Asia. Although Swine Influenza does not normally cause very high mortality (i.e. only 2–3 percent die when the disease is endemic), ‘’‘a new influenza strain could cause high mortality in swine, just as it would in humans. Therefore, it is important we find out exactly what is causing this undefined, undiagnosed disease over large areas of China’‘’. - Mod.PC]
Moderator PC is right to express concern.
Text I meant to highlight:
…a new influenza strain could cause high mortality in swine, just as it would in humans. Therefore, it is important we find out exactly what is causing this undefined, undiagnosed disease over large areas of China
Posted in the Promed story above:
Date: 5 Sep 2006
From: Dan Silver
Source: Suizhou Daily News [translated by sender, edited]
Yesterday, the provincial government held an urgent, province-wide videoteleconference [the province in question is Hubei; see URL for map below] on prevention and control of serious animal diseases, demanding fast action from all parts of the province, paying special attention to prevention and control work against the unknown pig high fever illness, to ensure increased agricultural efficacy and increased farmer receipts.
Since the middle of July 2006, an unknown pig disease has occurred in the neighboring provinces of Anhui, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Hunan and Henan, and other areas. Already 40 percent of pigs have died from infection. As of mid-August this disease had already spread to parts of Hubei. Conditions are relatively serious. According to reports, the pig disease is characterized by high fever, sudden onset, rapid transmission, and high mortality rate.
This may not be H5N1, but this is a very serious disease, whatever it is. Failure to diagnose such a widespread swine disease with such a high mortality rate raises questions. Presumably they have already ruled out the usual suspects or we would have a diagnosis. Have they tested for H5N1?
Another point, for anyone who thinks a contagious disease cannot have a high CFR in mammals, talk to the pig farmers in China. What magical power protects humsns from a similar fate?
Monotreme. I don’t have time to read the whole story right now but this makes no bloody sense…they could rule H5N1 in or out in short order and same goes for strept suis.
You know what…this is starting to look like H5N1…they may be hiding it or are afraid to diagnose it for fear it is H5N1.
This is not good.
Where is the World Health Organization…do they not understand there are sensitivities here and that this needs to be cleared up one way or another pronto.
This might be what was up in the summer. Forty percent of pigs is a lot of pigs…probably killing every pig in the barns it infects and it is just missing some to account for the ones who live.
You might be right…this may all have been a large scale inadvertent release…once in 1996 and because they didn’t fix the problem…now in pigs.
From a veterinary perspective…this makes no sense…this issue could have been cleared up long ago…I don’t like it …something is seriously amiss here with China and the WHO.
Now pigs……when it comes to H5Ni Murphys Law seems too optomistic; more akin to trying to to grsp hold of a nucleur reaction…..God help us.
Tom DVM – at 22:25
You mentioned WHO. There’s no human infected, I hope. Did you mean FAO, OIE?
ANON YYZ. This thing is so blurred between animals and humans that the WHO is the lead agency for both now…commenting on both animals and humans.
They have to clear this up…it is their job to clear this up…and they had better not be covering an H5N1 outbreak in pigs up in collusion with China.
The FAO and OIE generally stay in the background with any zoonosis.
econ101: “…trying to grasp hold of a nuclear reaction…” What a great visual of the impossible merging with the unthinkable. Excellent!
Tom DVM,
Moderator PC at Promed is clearly concerned. Perhaps alarmed.
I thought the Vets might find this story a bit odd. I think this should be a big story, whatever it is. What I also find strange as that Chinese authorities are even listing a range of possibilities for a differential diagnosis. Referring to the disease by it’s symptoms may be a politically correct way to refer to a Disease That Must Not Be Named.
Should read: “strange that Chinese authorities are *not* even listing a range of possibilities…”
5 face jail for slaughtering sick swine
The Tainan District Prosecutor’s Office yesterday indicted five private pig slaughters and dealers on charges of their alleged illegal sales of finished and semi-finished pork products processed with sick and dead pigs.
Prosecutors made the indictment following a year of investigations into a scam in which Wang Chia-yu, Lin Shih-ping and Chen Hua allegedly purchased sick pigs or dead pigs with diseases from pig farmers in southern Taiwan, illegally slaughtered the pigs and then sold the porks to two downstream processors Tang Fen-nan and Cheng Chin-long.
Tang and Cheng processed the pork products into sausages for sales to consumers, with a monthly sales volume of 1,000 kilograms.
Do you know where your sausage comes from?
should read grab not grsp…..sorry but I’m blind
Would you really be surprised if they insisted on calling it PHFI (pig high fever illness)and hemmed and hawed about the real cause until somebody broke the silence that it was in fact a strain of H5N1?
You have no idea how frustrating this is for me…If we were talking in person you would know because the string of expletives would last for probably a minute.
Honestly Monotreme, they have to be covering something up…I could do this in a week and come up with an answer…from my veterinary truck…you have no idea how unusual and perplexing this is.
We knew they were screwing around big time this summer and playing games…but I never would have thought this is what they were screwing around with…
…If this is H5N1 in those pigs the pandemic is on…no doubt about it.
Many Cats – at 23:15
No, I wouldn’t. But I also think that if it is H5N1 they will be under tremendous pressure to conceal it as long as possible. I wonder how long they could can get away with PHFI? There is no MSM pressure, absolutely none. No pressure from OIE or FAO or WHO. Just Promed and us flubies.
and with no downward trend in CFR to work with…I think we are looking at the 1890 or worse…we’ve got to see some kind of downward trend in CFR before this thing breaks…or it will break us…no doubt about it…and no antibiotics…great!!
Many Cats. What do you think of this? I certainly don’t get it!!
Come now, Monotreme. It’s just another new animal disease. That’s been happening a lot recently. Nothing to worry about. Move along, now…
Tom DVM – at 23:17
I feel your pain. I felt the same way when WHO and CDC officials lied over and over again about why we had no sequences.
If this is H5N1 in those pigs the pandemic is on…no doubt about it.
I agree. Also, if it is H5N1, note how high the CFR is. Which is why this should be a big story. C’mon MSM, let’s get on this.
Monotreme. Don’t hold me to this but I think Porcine Respiratory and Reproductive Disease is a chronic wasting disease rather than a disease that causes sudden death from infection.
Many Cats, Tom DVM, Monotreme,
I agree this could be very serious, even if it’s something other than H5N1. If you ignore the (bad) history of Chinese coverups, and only think hard about the symptoms reported, how likely is this PHFI a strain of H5N1? Is it the exception rather than the norm that pigs die from H5N1?
Tom DVM: They should have SOMETHING on this disease by now. We both know that! If it were here there would be every diagnostic lab and a good number of research institutions working on this around the clock saying “It’s this or that pathogen. We have found this or that new class or virus or whatever. At the very least we would have a flurry of data saying we have ruled out cause A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H……alpha, beta…..omeaga…..blah, blah, blah.” We would likely have invited top researchers form around the world to examine samples, etc. etc. etc. We would not have stoney silence with the attitude of “Dead pigs? What dead pigs? Happens all the time!” They know the cat is out of the bag with the pigs dying and they are desperately trying to hold off on providing the WHY to the rest of the world. It cannot stand as other nations will start to get real edgy about imports if it cannot be proven that whatever it is is not inactivated by processing, etc. so there have to be other considerations. The vaccine-gone-awry scenario is looking more and more plausible, IMHO, for what it’s worth.
Before we entirely panic, one thought I have is that they’ve got something in those pigs that woudl lead to immediate export bans if word got out. They may know, and not want to make it official, because of the financial impact.
Though at this point — I bet countries are banning Chinese pork left and right anyway. One would hope.
Tom — can you give a breakdown of diseases OTHER than H5N1 that might cause this high of a CFR? I don’t know much about pigs. Poultry and goats are my thing.
ANON-YYZ – at 23:28
Two things would be unusual for H5N1 in pigs
Of course, it could be a new strain of H5N1. If so, it would already have the features of a worst case scenario, in pigs. If that were true, a worst case scenario in humans would be imminent, IMO.
We have to find out what this is.
I can’t find the link, but didn’t China just make a rule requiring notification of human bird flu cases within 2 hours of detection?
Gojus Notes and Thoughts-Safe America Conference NYC
Goju – at 12:11
Break – I turn and see Dr Nabarro (UN) sitting by himself in the front row.
When I mentioned Qinhai – his eyes lit up and muttered “you know about that?”
Many Cats Tom DVM Monotreme IMHO I think you are right, China has done something very bad and now do not know what to do about it. Just my personal opinion I have no proof or inside information to support it.
Anon_451 – at 23:40
As you know I have been leading the tin-foil brigade re: China’s hand in the evolution of H5N1. Too many weird things. They are known to be sloppy with their vaccines. And when they make a mistake they don’t admit it and clean it up, they cover it up and hope it goes away. Worse, they may be still be using bad vaccines. And selling them to unsuspecting countries, like Indonesia.
Monotreme – at 23:32
I am trying not to panic. If the outbreak started in July, its been two months. With over a million chances to mutate further, wouldn’t it have caused a human pandemic already?
I would second Cygnet – at 23:32 , other than H5N1, what are possible explanations. If all other known diseases in pigs are more improbable than H5N1, then we have something to stand on.
Thanks Blue Ridge Mountain Mom.
That came out today! Of course, it could be yet another coincidence.
BEIJING — Doctors and grass-roots health organizations in China are required to report epidemics within two hours of their discovery, according to a newly revised regulation released by the Ministry of Health (MOH).
The revised regulation states that medical organizations at county level, including private clinics, are responsible for reporting epidemics to the local health department.
The infectious diseases listed in the regulation include SARS, poliomyelitis and human bird flu.
The report must be sent out as quickly as possible, via internet, fax or phone calls. The health department should then send reports to the local governments and higher health departments, the regulation stipulates.
ANON-YYZ - 23:32
The first province mentioned in this article was hit by cyclones in August… Now imagine getting disease news out of that area and couple that with the worst cyclone season that China has seen in over 60 years.
Makes me start to wonder about the numbers of the dead people killed by the storms….
TomDVM: I’m no LA vet, but in Pathology of Domestic Animals by Jubb,Kennedy and Palmer, it says regarding PRRS “…pulmonary signs may be minimal in older pigs. The peak age for the respiratory disease is 4–10 weeks, in the range of 2–16 weeks.” This does not rule out some new “super-strain” of any non-H5N1 pathogen, but again I would think we would have heard more about them narrowing it down to a specific pathogen class by now…
Sighs.. hangs head. That would have been 23:45…
ANON-YYZ – at 23:45
If the outbreak started in July, its been two months. With over a million chances to mutate further, wouldn’t it have caused a human pandemic already?
Not necessarily. Two things have to happen at the same time. A mutation favoring H2H spread in the pigs, and close proximity to humans. We may have been lucky so far and both may not have happened at the same time. However, as we have all noted, we won’t see the early stages of a human pandemic if it starts in a village in China. If the culling of the Tibetans in Qinghai really happened, you can expect similar “clean-up” teams to go into action if a pandemic strain evolves in China.
Come to think of it, the Boxun reports referred to H5N1 as “Birds and Beasts flu” because it killed livestock as well as people.
Even if it’s H5N1, the pandemic is on, only when _humans_ become infected. It’s still only in pigs. Although lots of pigs. And China did hide it for months. Diagnosing of H5N1 in pigs should be easy and routine. Did you notice, how they mention H1N1,H1N2,H3N2 but leave out the most natural H5N1 ? With this mortality H5N1 should be the first idea. However this was not a Chinese source but “Mod PC”, whoever that is. Let’s hope that he just had a silly moment and is not trying to hide something.
For anyone who hasn’t read the Boxun Reports, they are required reading. You can find links, here.
Boxun broke the SARS story. IMO, they are honest about what they can confirm and what they cannot confirm.
anonymous – at 23:54
MOD PC was probably trying not to start a panic. I’m not as responsible ;-)
is there no discussion on promed ? Can’t we ask the “Mod PC” questions ? Can’t we invite Dan Silver or others to post here ? Someone please help to figure this out.
here is a guide to diagnose pig diseases. http://www.the pigsite.com/diseaseinfo/ Right on the homepage, top left-you can also advertise in Chinese:-). great!!
TomDVM: Do you anything about the types of pigs they are raising over there in China? Any chance of them being genetically predisposed to porcine stress syndrome? Even if they do have it, don’t you think that they would have looked into that possibility by now?
They have been fighting a limited strept suis problem I believe in that area for years…but strept suis kills humans and I notice there is no mention of deaths in humans…
…somebody was mentioning that they had cracked down on the press recently and thrown reporters in jail…old habits die hard don’t they.
We have a PRRS outbreak in Canada now and it is not that…mostly a wasting disease, a chronic condition causing death.
Cygnet I was mostly a cattle, sheep and goat veterinarian but 95% cattle. I did a little pigs but not much.
Many Cats Would you have a differential diagnosis for an Asian country for pigs with high fevers and sudden deaths. I can’t think of many diseases that would do that off-hand.
We mustn’t forget that nice little Foot and Mouth epidemic that they have also been covering up for years while exporting it all over the world to and including the Middle East and England a while ago.
Many Cats. I don’t think it would cause that number of deaths but I really am not a pig expert.
It seems we have some veterinarians who are lurkers…so if you have a differential diagnosis for these pigs…we would really appreciate it if you would jump in…this is really important. Thanks.
there is also discussion at curevents and flutrackers. I wished, we could join the discussions and concentrate on one forum.
Thanks Tom DVM and Many Cats…
I’m not a vet for sure, but here is a webpage on PRRSV (porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus)aka “blue ear disease”…and unless some new strain of this has broken out, it doesn’t sound like it matches the clinical description we have (at this stage) about the pigs in China.
Snipped from http://www.multiplex-eu.org/prrsv.php
“The reproductive failure is characterised by abortions, stillbirths, and the birth of weak piglets that often die soon after birth of respiratory disease and secondary infections. Older pigs may demonstrate mild signs of respiratory disease, sometimes complicated by secondary infections.”
Another more extensive source of information about this virus is here
TomDVM: Stress syndrome can have a pretty high kill rate if all the pigs are genetically simialr. The high core temperature these animals reach could be potentially be confused with fever and the high respiratory rate could potentially be confused with respiratory disease. I would doubt that it is the case since trained personnel should be on the scene by now who could distinguish between these conditions, but I don’t know of any other diseases with that kind of kiill rate unless there is a foreign animal disease with which we are unfamiliar or unless they have wickedly bad animal husbandry practices. But I am in no way shape or form a pig expert in any way. There may be an obvious explanation, but it eludes me.
I didn’t think foot and mouth had that high of a CFR — I thought it was mostly an economic issue. (Less production/profit from affected animals.)
Though foot and mouth with a high CFR would certainly be something they’d want to hide. And, *puts tin foil hat on*, something they could have developed as a bioweapon, if one was stretching for an explanation.
but is there any pig-disease with these symptoms _and_ which is hard to diagnose ? Or are you sure meanwhile that they do have the diagnosis and are just covering it up for whatever reason ?
What about hog-cholera etc. , can they be hard to diagnose ?
Many cats. Funny thing is that I read last night that only twenty percent of the pigs are in herds of more than a hundred…which probably means there are a lot of small farms…which makes these types of losses even worse and potentially more dangerous as a zoonosis.
I wonder what the kill rate was for the new strep suis that was also killing people.
so it seems that either:
* this is a completely new disease
* they are hiding the diagnosis
(( * they are trying hard, but really can’t find it ?? ))
Cygnet. Sorry, you are right about Foot and Mouth…I didn’t mean to say that it could cause this problem because it couldn’t.
I’m not sure of many diseases that could cause these kinds of losses but hog cholera probably could if it mutated…they would probably have some natural resistance to these types of disease lowering the kill rate far below this…Nope…this almost has to be an exotic or newly mutated bug.
anonymous: We can only hope.
TomDVM: As the Chinese would say, we are living in interesting times…
lmonty at flutrackers:
dehydration, fever, and blood problems can cause peripheral discoloration which in animals often shows in the thinner skin of the ears. So I think its entirely possbile that it can be a sign assosicated with several serious diseases.
labored breathing means youre working hard- its difficult breathing often assosciated with upper respiratopry infection or more serious pneumonias, and some biochemical abnormalities.
speaking of pneumonia there doesnt seem to be any mention of it in the reports. I would anticipate the possiblity of pneumonias if it was flu (unless its killing so quick there isnt time for it to be noticed) speculative thought on my part-thoughts?
I would also anticipate that if this was a well known classical swine disease- the chinese would have known that and tested for it and found it quickly. it does make me wonder that it may well be a flu or perhaps even strep suis- though they certainly have had their share of that lately and should be able to ID it quickly.
way too many new diseases these days, arent there?
if it is H5N1, could it have mutated/reassorted so much that they can’t diagnose it ?
As I said before:
It’s just another new animal disease. That’s been happening a lot recently. Nothing to worry about. Move along, now…
THey mentioned coughing and blue ears, which would tend to indicate to me that there’s a respiratory component. For what it’s worth. Like I said above, I’m not very knowledgeable about pigs at all, but if I’ve got a goat or other critter which has blue mucous membranes and is coughing I assume pneumonia unless there’s reason to suspect something else.
If this was a bacterial problem, couldn’t they control it by dumping antiobiotics into the drinking water for the pigs?
that’s not what the other people say
(TomDVM,DanSilver,…)
and even if it’s just another new animal disease, it’s rather severe,
isn’t it ?
Any example with such many dead mammals in such short time with undiagnosed disease ?
Cygnet, if it were pneumonia, how could they miss it ?
Anonymous: If you had seen the previous remark, you would know it was meant as sarcasm/facetiousness. Cygnet: Blue tissues are usually associated with hypoxia which can be caused by more than pneumonia, although that would be my first choice, also. But as anonymous points out at 01:06, there does not appear to be an immediately identifiable pathogen that they are associating with the pneumonia and from what I have seen in the above posts, there is no gross anatomical description or histopathology reports that provide any indication of what the lung tissue looks like. Some disease have very characteristic patterns of lesions and nothing appears to be forthcoming that would let other investigators have a clue or provide input into the situation. Just a bit problematic (again said with great sarcasm/facetiousness).
Many Cats,
Please email me at the address in my profile. I need your expertise on a problem.
http://health.dailynewscentral.com/content/view/1385/62
According to the report, Sichuan Province has documented 163 cases of swine streptococcus suis, among them 112 confirmed cases and 51 suspected ones. Eleven people have been discharged from hospital and 24 others are in critical condition.
The World Health Organization (WHO) has said the death toll in Sichuan Province is unusually high, as the normal fatality rate is under 10 percent. According to WHO, it is the biggest outbreak relating to the bacteria in history. Beijing notified WHO about the outbreak last week.
All the patients, mainly from two cities in Sichuan Province, Ziyang and Neijing, had direct contact with sick or dead animals before developing symptoms, which include high fever, fatigue, nausea, vomiting and bruising. Some patients have even become comatose.
More than 450 pigs have died in the outbreak.
Don’t know if this adds to the discussion or not.
Sorry---old report. Dang foreign search engines.
many cats, why do you use sarcasm to express yourself ? It’s ambiguous. I sent email to Dan Silver, posted to alt.sci.veterinary and the-pig-site-forum also flutrackers,curevents. If someone knows of other suitable places, please post.
Mikala at curevents:
I did a quick check of pig deaths on ProMed back a few years and this looks unprecedented. Strep. Suis they can reportedly confirm within 4 hours.
My initial knee-jerk reaction was “whatever”, but upon further reading and thought this is a potential red flag. A million IS a lot. I wonder how many are in that area to begin with? I have no idea what pigs are susceptible to and I checked out OIE but could not come up with anything easily.
sidescroll now. Should we start a new thread ?
Anonymous: It provides a little release in a tense situation. Some of us prefer pandemic-lite to a consistently crushing reality.
P.S.: Since we are on a tear, why do you prefer anonymity when a handle is not that much more revealing?
All work and no play make Geoff Serious a dull boy.
ManyCats, I think you don’t really want to know that. We had frequent and lengthy discussion already. Basically it’s to concentrate on (scientific) content and not on personal things. Well, it doesn’t seem to work - now I have to discuss about anonymity instead of personal things, sigh.
BTW. are you specialized in Cats-veterinary ? Tom says he’s no expert for pigs either.
here are the threads at curevent and flutrackers :
http://www.curevents.com/vb/showthread.php?p=538692#post538692
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=9923&page=2
America falls asleep now…
Anonymous: My life is lead in an ivory tower, so I do not practice on much besides rats and they usually aren’t breathing by the time I get to work with them. I teach and do research. The many cats are my own. If you are who I think you are, your command of the language has improved considerably. Better to stay safe in your anonymity—Bronco Bill is usually on the wiki around this time.
Correction: “led” not “lead” —wouldn’t want to confuse anyone with “lead” and “ivory”--sounds like an alchemy experiment.
I don’t want to get personal, just your expertise with pig-diseases. Thanks.
Historical perspective: China
This is from a CIDRAP article dated August 24,2004. It highlights why we do not trust China to provide full disclosure of H5N1 in pigs.
Excerpt: “Confusion began when a prominent Chinese avian influenza expert, Chen Hualan, an author of the two studies, said in a presentation at an international meeting late last week that the H5N1 virus had been found in pigs in China in both 2003 and 2004, to the surprise of WHO and FAO officials who were not aware of this. A New York Times story says a press official of the Chinese health ministry was likewise surprised when told later of the expert’s comments and that he said his office had no information on the subject. It is unclear whether Chen’s remarks had been officially authorized.
The state-run Beijing Times ran a story today saying that Chen, after several days of silence, called the amount of avian flu virus in the pigs “extremely small,” with the probability of isolating H5N1 from the animals “less than one in a thousand,” according to an AFP story. The story also stated that an unnamed spokesperson for the ministry of agriculture said “some experts’ remarks” were at odds with the government’s view of events.”
Several days after this, CIDRAP reported that the official newspaper ran a piece stating that there was no H5N1 in pigs.
I hope this time that the government will provide the truth about what is happening in China. I hope but I don’t really expect it to. Someone should have the answers over there by now. This is a very serious situation and bears watching.
I guess/hope with million dead pigs,undiagnosed, they can’t really refuse to share samples. I wonder how they succeeded to keep it silent since mid of July. Was there nothing in the Chinese news, or were our “spies” not watching Chinese news ?
also, did this “keeping silent” give them an economical advantage ? What did they export in the meantime ? It can’t be worth the loss in credibility and the threat for all the other pigs in China and elsewhere. Had they shared samples earlier, we might have a diagnosis by now.
anonymous. If they shared their samples last week we would have a diagnosis.
They know what is causing this problem…they have 450,000 metric tonnes of reasons why they know what is causing this disease and that is just the exports…they may also have 450,000 metric tons of reasons domestically why they would have known this disease some time ago…
…remember they are going to try and sell the rest of the world vaccine to prove their technological expertise…do you really think they want to admit that they don’t know what this disease is…
…they would be the laughing stock of every business related scientist in the world and nobody would touch their biologics or start joint-ventures etc.
If you want to know my opinion, I think the lightening might have struck Monotreme, right between the eyes, and he has been right from the start.
h5N1 manmade…inadvertently
this pig disease…another manmade event…another inadvertent release because the problem wasn’t fixed the first time…
…if you want a working hypothesis…they found H5N1 in big numbers in pigs…decided to secretly start vaccinating or at least testing vaccines… infected rather than vaccinated…H5N1 mutated in the infected pigs and it then took off…they have been in big damage control all summer…removing the evidence (sequences), grabbing inquisitive reporters etc. etc. etc.
Like the resport said…you have no idea how unprecedented and unbelievable everything in the past nine years has been for me…not just this exact situation but many animal-human health situations in many different areas around the world.
“The story also stated that an unnamed spokesperson for the ministry of agriculture said “some experts’ remarks” were at odds with the government’s view of events.” Kind of says it all doesn’t it…
Tom DVM, ManyCats, Cygnet and any other FluWikian Vets out there, would you feel comfortable contacting any of your Swine Vet colleagues and asking them to look at the ProMed article and getting their opinion? If they agree this is serious, maybe we could start a lobbying effort to get more information out of China on this issue.
Here is the ProMed link.
Monotreme. Unfortunately, I don’ have any colleagues that I know of who know any more about pigs then me…not that we can’t extrapolate a lot while being generalists…
….I also don’t have any colleagues who know any more about humans than me./:0)
If we have a veterinarian lurking that does know (Sasky DVM)…it might be a good time to jump in…we could use your help and input at what may turn out to be a turning point in this whole thing.
TomDVM, are you sure, that the diagnosis is easy ?
Dan Silver, ModPCChinese experts, Flutracker,Curevents seem to disagree
that it must be easy. That’s how I interpret their posts.
By now, they must know that it can’t be hidden. So why
say to the press that they have no clue ? In some weeks
we will know it anyway.
manmade H5N1 ? They could have been experimenting with pigs
to test the pandemic potental of certain strains…Now they would know.
But, no humans infected ? And although they were prepared
they couldn’t contain it ? Not even in pigs ?
depressing perspectives.
There are two organizations we can ask about this:
The FAO and the OIE (email: oie@oie.int). Any Vets want to give it a shot? At least it would let them know some professionals are watching and wondering why no reports have been filed. If this did turn out to be H5N1 or another serious infectious disease, people might ask why these two agencies didn’t think millions of pigs dying in China should have been reported.
where do the Vets meet in internet ? There must be some mailing list or such
I sent email to Dan Silver and ModPC, no answer yet.
anonymous – at 11:06
I think you are misinterpreting the comments. It is not easy to diagnose without access to the pigs or samples from the pigs. It should be easy to exclude most of the obvious suspects if access was available. No comments have been made by the Chinese Vets on any possibilities being excluded. They should have been able to do this by now.
This situation smells.
H5N1 - Manmade!
I have been sitting here for 15 minutes stunned, I had missed Monotreme’s idea in past threads but I always knew we did not know where it came from, but this is too horrible for me get my head around.
Tom DVM: If you are right it is just another example (like nuclear technology—”We’re scientists, we know what we’re doing” and Holy Wars---“MY way is the ONLY way”) of man’s hubris leading to his downfall. Kind of ironic to think we are the “flower” on the evolutionary tree. Gary Larsen had a cartoon of a bunch of aliens happily watching the “fireworks show” as the Earth destroyed itself in a mass of nuclear mushroom clouds. Our penchant for self-destruction is an amazing thing. I guess that is what happens when you are the apex predator and no longer have any real enemies. You become a danger to your own kind.
This is a link to The American Association of Swine Veterinarians. They have members from around the world. They have also posted the promed information. Contact information is listed if any of our Vets would be interested.
Monotreme: I know one vet doing research on PRRS. I will e-mail him, but like many lab-types, he is socked away 20 hrs a day in his lab and is likely to say “Pigs dying in China? I haven’t heard about that.” We shall see.
mono, that African disease was excluded. Yes, with the samples. They are going to share samples now and let the WHO in, aren’t they ?
I’m not a vet. Just keep goats and poultry — and try to be well informed.
ManyPigs, we were talking about PRRS at flutrackers with Mingus.
Where is Mingus ? He should have contacts. He posted yesterday,
and should have seen the promed report
Sorry I have been looking for the 1 million pig deaths link can’t seem to find it. Could someone post it when they have a chance. Thanks in advance.
August 2004 Source: BBC Online
“Bird flu virus belonging to the H5N1 strain has been found in pigs on several farms in China. It has not yet been confirmed whether the pigs are infected or have merely come into contact with the disease.
The H5N1 strain is highly infectious in poultry and can spread from birds to humans, although for now this remains a rare event. Scientists fear that if the pigs are infected by both bird and human flu viruses the two strains could combine to create a strain easily capable of infecting people.
Chinese scientists announced the finding on Friday (20 August). However, the World Health Organisation is treating the news with caution, insisting that more information is needed before an accurate risk assessment can be made. Pigs can carry flu viruses in their snouts without necessarily becoming infected and developing the disease.
April 12, 2006
“In Jiangsu Province’s Zhenjiang City recently there were a series of sudden large-scale deaths of pigs, posing a serious threat to the environment. The relevant authorities are investigating the incident and trying to repair the damage.
Beginning on March 13th, large groups of pig carcasses began appearing. Some were wrapped in garbage bags and left on the side of the road, while others were discovered floating in rivers. Many of the carcasses had already begun to rot, polluting water sources.
Reportedly the carcasses come from pig farms in Anhui, where they were raised on wastewater and garbage. Authorities are investigating.”
“Swine production in China far exceeds the production of any other country, with more than six times the number of pigs of the second biggest producer, the US. Brazil is the world’s seventh largest pork producer and dominates production in South America, with eight times the production of Chile, which ranks as number two in South America.
China is the world’s largest pork producer, and the fourth largest producer of beef in the world. One out of every two pigs in the world is located within the border of mainland China. When China becomes part of the World Trade Organization (WTO), tariffs for meat will be lowered and allow entry of new imports into the Chinese market.
China represents a growing market for imports of both pork and beef as meat products penetrate secondary cities in China; and the middle class population in urban areas is demanding more consumer-oriented meat products. There were an estimated 454 million pigs in China in 2001 (Figure 1). The world inventory was approximately 928 million head in 2001. The US had an inventory of 61 million head in 2001.
Up to 80% of Chinese production is in small family operations. These family-reared pigs consume scraps or excess crop materials as compared to a grain-based diet that would be utilized elsewhere. Larger size operations with over 100 sows are on the increase in China, but they still represent less than 20% of the total market hog supply. The vast population of China allows the majority of their production to be of the ‘backyard’ type and still keep China the number one producer in the world by a large margin. “ (excerpt)
More pork is consumed than any other meat in the world. In 1998 it represented 39% of the world’s total meat consumption compared to 26.5% for beef and 28% for poultry (Pig International, 1999).
Pogge, is fluwikie being checked by Chinese addresses today ?
Well, I somehow can’t believe that it’s H5N1 and life around everywhere
is being normal. Nothing in the news, no Boxun, not even niman
takes it serious. Gold down to 611, Sinovac low volume
promed people don’t seem really concerned
Klatu Thanks a lot…I have been doing the same thing…looking for that information you posted the other day about The Chinese and pigs and production numbers and differentials between 2001 and today…it was really good…I should have saved it…
…So you know where you put it and could you re-enter it here…Thanks and keep up the excellent work…
…its a lot easier to make the argument with your excellent references….really!!
Pigfluenza http://tinyurl.com/ebz4k
I found the information. It was on part 1 of this thread. Edna had posted it…Thanks Edna and Klatu…it is really nice to have the data to back-up intuition especially when we are so much in the dark here and so have to speculate much of the time. Thanks again.
anon_22 – at 10:44 Can anyone find out how big is the pork export business in China? And generally how big is the trade in pork/pig products internationally, and give us links to those kinds of info?
Excerpted from the USDA Foreign Agriculture Service’s (FAS) Pork 2006 Outlook at http://tinyurl.com/mju2z
“China’s domination grows China now accounts for more than half (53.5 percent) of the production of pork among selected countries. Thus, mall changes in Chinese production and consumption have a significant impact on the total of selected countries. The current forecast increases Chinese pork production by 2 percent from the November 2005 forecast to a record 52 million tons. With this upward revision, China will increase pork production by almost 5 percent from 2005 to 2006 due to a variety of factors including its popularity in the Chinese diet, continued higher disposable incomes, strong profitability in the pork sector, increased investment in swine and pork operations, and increased pork consumption due to AI. However, due to strong domestic demand, the current forecast sharply drops Chinese pork exports from 415,000 tons in the November 2005 forecast to 300,000 tons.”
Excerpted from FASOnline World Pork Trade Overview dated May 2005 seen here: http://tinyurl.com/pdx5g
“China: China is the world’s largest pork producer and consumer. In 2005, Chinese pork production is expected to reach a record 49.7 million tons. China’s pork industry is gradually shifting from backyard farming to commercial production with increased foreign investment and the movement of the rural population to urban areas, which drives consumption. Pork prices have remained high along with consumption and demand is largely filled with domestic production. China is the world’s fifth largest pork exporter with the majority of its products sent to other Asian markets. Exports have increased from 73,000 tons in 2000 to 383,000 tons in 2004, and are forecast to reach 450,000 tons in 2005. “
The last paragraph above is the important one and especially note the changes in the last five years…a relatively short period of time…from a disease risk perspective.
Now add one additional piece of information…I couldn’t re-ccess Klatu’s reference again but I believe that it stated that 50% of the worlds pork supply is consumed within the borders of China…
…so add the data above the line with the additional production to supply 50% of world production which is separte from the above numbers…
…now add one last piece of information…most of these pigs rather than being in big factory farms like chickens are actually in small in essence backyard small herds…
…bottom line…a lot of pigs with a lot of human contact and probably a lot of contact with specifically children.
Tom DVM: Let us assume the worst. That the pigs are dying from H5N1. Even with the thoroughness and ruthlessness of the Chinese in dealing with these outbreaks could we make it to next Spring without h2h2h2h2h2h2h2h2h…………?
Sorry. Just in case I wasn’t clear…this is a rather pivotal point.
…The exports of pork from China have increased 6.5 fold, from 73,000 tons to 450,000 tons in 5 years. However, in pig numbers required, these numbers do not include dometic consumption. Citizens of China obviously have more money than in 2000…therefore the per capita consumption would have increased significantly…and Klatu’s reference stated I think that domestic consumption is 50% of the world’s total production of pork.
That my friends is a lot of pork and a lot of pigs and most importantly this represents a huge unmanageable expansion of pig farming in concentrated geographical areas of China since 2000…
…and lastly, the data indicates that these pigs are on small family, essentially backyard farms…
an explosion of pig population density in concert with increased human population in concentrated geographical areas combined with a Foot and Mouth outbreak, a SARS outbreak, a H5N1 outbreak and a Streptococcus suis outbreak…and now this outbreak of unknown or undisclosed etiology etc. etc. etc.
Hope that helps to put things in perspective.
Medical Maven. Oh……….you have provided me with a great temptation when considering the difference between one species of animal in China with another…I had better not go there.
I thought I had China pegged but there are now two things that have utterly flabergasted me in the last eight years.
1) that any country or person in the world would use formaldehyde (embalming fluid) as a food preservative and I am talking about a coordinated usage across a multitude of farms in geographically distinct area…direct Chinese Government involvment?…I guess I’m not going to get any invitations to visit.
2) That they would be dumb enough after SARS, to think they could hide anything and particularly a Foot and Mouth epidemic and the strept suis outbreak…and now this…
…an broad geographical epidemic with an explosion of cases that is several months later being covered up…
…I don’t think this bunch is quite as smart as we give them credit for…
…and as a result they are going to take us down with them!!
Tom DVM at 12:44
You mean they use formaldehyde to preserve pork? That is known to cause cataracts - among other things.
“formaldehyde (embalming fluid) as a food preservative “
Puts Pickled Pigs Feet in a whole other light.;-) China………..that`s where I`ve always felt this monster would really get going.
formaldehyde???
DennisC. No they didn’t use formaldehyde to preserve pork…that I identified anyway.
The Chinese know that all biologics, meat and animal tissue have very small concentrations of formaldehyde as a natural preservative of sorts. Once you know that you can evade survelliance if you have a food regulatory system that consists of an old, deaf and blind gaurd dog that has recently lost its bark as well.
If the citizens walk past the hen house, they are comforted by the dog laying there looking officious…but the hens are not comforted because they know the gaurd dog is only there for appearances.
So if you are sending perishable food from the farm…to the port without developed transport structures…delays at port…ten day voyage or less depending…delay at american port…clearing customs…shipped across the USA by truck to say Pennsylvania…where it stays in the wholesalers warehouse for an indeterminate period of time…back on a truck to Canada…to the Wholesaler in Canada where again it sits for an indeterminate period of time…then to the Toronto Food terminal where it sits for an inderterminate period of time…back in the truck to the grocery store for an indeterminate period of time…purchased by you the consumer and sits in your fridge for an indeterminate period of time and then you either cook it and consume it or worse you eat it raw.
But I digress from H5N1.
FrenchieGirl. I just happened to catch your post at the end of the thread the other night. Thank you for your kind and excellent advice as always.
It is beginning to look like we will have to have the reunion in Canada after the pandemic or even better if it doesn’ happen at all or maybe even before it happens…who knows?
We will just think of it like Woodstock 111.
Sorry, one last thing about the route I gave you above…In about 2001–2002 the route changed…now it comes to Canada and then is shipped to the USA…in the exact same manner.
Sorry, one last thing. That product when you buy it in the grocery store is labelled ‘fresh product of Canada’ or even maybe ‘fresh product of the USA’ because for example, Canada has this wonderful little rule that once an importer value adds a product…ie: increases the price…it becomes a product of that country rather than the product of the exporting country…
…very cute if you are a regulatory that never wants to have to get up, have a good stretch…and then maybe do a little food regulating for a while.
The part about “Fresh….product of Canada”…I’m not sure about the fresh…I guess it looks…what the hell…no problem…we’ll let you call it fresh after a couple of months.
Tom DVM – at 13:00 ;-D
Heh. Thom, I WAS eating a bacon and egg sandwich for breakfast until I read that. My dog thanks you for half a bacon and egg sandwich.
On a more serious note, I’m guessing that they probably freeze the pork in transit. I don’t care what you preserve it with — it’s either going to smell off or it’s going to smell like chemicals on arrival if it’s been in transit unfrozen for months. Thaw it out and sell it as “fresh” later. However, given the average food handling skills of the average American, it’s a disturbing thought that CHinese pork might be out there in America.
I will not be at all surprised if the pigs have H5N1, but I’d like to see proof before I panic. Back yard farmers are also going to have chickens. And they ARE going to feed the pigs the usual detritus from raising chickens — offal from butchering them, bones, dead birds, cracked/rotten eggs, dud eggs from the incubator or from under hens, and culled chicks, etc. etc. Plus, probably, manure from the chicken pens and spoiled grain that the chickens won’t eat. Pigs will eat almost anything including things chickens won’t eat.
My point is that there will have been a LOT of exposure between pigs and chickens in a backyard farming envirnment.
http://www.aasv.org/news/story.php?id=504
March 17, 2003 American Association of Swine Veterinarians
By 2000 the USDA National Swine Survey found that 44% of breeding females were being vaccinated and it is estimated that now over half of all U.S. sows are vaccinated against the H1N1 and H3N2 strains.
The structure of influenza virus lends itself to genetic evolution
A new North American swine influenza virus, identified in 2000, was an H1N2 that was a combination of classical swine virus and the H3N2.
The latest new variant virus is an H1N1 with the internal genes of an H3N2. It is a curious hybrid deriving genes for coat proteins from classical swine influenza but half of internal genes from avian and human viruses. According to Dr. Webby, its HA gene, derived from classical swine influenza virus, appears to be rapidly mutating.
“The amount of sequence divergence among certain 2001 isolates is as much as the difference between classical H1N1 viruses isolated in the 1960s and those isolated in the early 1990s”. He adds “If enough point mutations accumulate, that HA molecule could become unrecognizable to the immune systems of both pigs and humans.”
‘’‘Human risk
Scientists believe that the last two human influenza pandemics, in 1957 and 1968, occurred after avian ‘flu and human ‘flu viruses swapped genes in swine, creating a new hybrid virus that then spread in humans.
“ Olsen and colleagues at the University of Wisconsin have found evidence that a novel H4N6 swine virus (the Ontario “duck” virus) has already acquired genetic mutations that give it the potential to bind to human cell receptors. The article predicts that such an event could be catastrophic because humans have no immunity to H4 viruses. However, to have pandemic potential, a new influenza virus must also be able to spread easily from one person to another. No new virus from swine or birds, nor any hybrid created in pigs, has yet been able to accomplish this since the 1968 human influenza pandemic.”
If there have been about 1,000,000 swine deaths from whatever this disease agent is in China, which represents 40% of all cases…that means there have been about 2,500,000 cases of this disease in swine.
In other words, 40% of 2,500,000 = 1,000,000.
Have any of you read of this? It’s dated August of 2005. Is this story related to your discussion here? If not, I apologize.
http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/world/archives/2005/08/09/2003267011
Tink – at 15:14 wrote:
“Have any of you read of this? It’s dated August of 2005. Is this story related to your discussion here? If not, I apologize.” http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/world/archives/2005/08/09/2003267011
AP , SHANGHAI Aug 09, 2005
Four local Chinese officials have been fired for failing to dispose properly of infected pigs amid efforts to stop the spread of a swine-borne disease that has killed 39 people, a newspaper reported yesterday.
Yes it relates, thank-you. It underscores that not all the information is getting out in a timely fashion, China, U.S, Canada, etc. This needs to be factored in. My 2-cents.
Commentary
Recombinomics Commentary
September 9, 2006
“Since the middle of July 2006, an unknown pig disease has occurred in the neighboring provinces of Anhui, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Hunan and Henan, and other areas. Already 40 percent of pigs have died from infection. As of mid-August this disease had already spread to parts of Hubei. Conditions are relatively serious. According to reports, the pig disease is characterized by high fever, sudden onset, rapid transmission, and high mortality rate.
Pig “high fever illness” is appearing in all areas in our province [Zhejiang] other than Zhoushan City. There are more than 66 000 ill pigs and already more than 11 000 have died. Since July, pig “high fever illness” has appeared in one village after the other in Jiangshan. Symptoms are elevated body temperature, redness on the body surface, and cough. Ears turn light blue in a minority of pigs. The mortality rate among sucklings and weaned pigs is especially high.
I hope that the Chinese authorities are carefully considering the possibility of Swine Influenza usually caused by H1N1, H1N2, or H3N2 in Asia. Although Swine Influenza does not normally cause very high mortality (i.e. only 2–3 percent die when the disease is endemic), a new influenza strain could cause high mortality in swine, just as it would in humans. Therefore, it is important we find out exactly what is causing this undefined, undiagnosed disease over large areas of China. - Mod.PC]”
The above excerpts from the latest Promed report on the swine outbreak in China, as well as the final comment, are cause for concern. The failure to diagnose this widespread and fatal illness is curious. As noted in the commentary, the symptoms certainly do not exclude swine influenza, and the description of the light blue ears sounds remarkably like combs turning blue in H5N1 infected poultry. Although H5N1 is not directly mentioned in the commentary, there is data out of China supporting “a new influenza strain.
H5N1 in swine in China has been reported previously. Initial reports were on isolates from Fujian ands Shenzhen provinces. These isolates were most closely related to “older” H5N1 isolates from China which were not associated with human cases. Similarly, the H5N1 infections were not linked to a high mortality or easy transmission.
However, more recent isolates from Guangdong and Anhui provinces are more diverse and also have a curious history. The sequences from all 8 gene sequences were placed on deposit at GenBank on April 1, 2006. A month later all 40 sequences were “removed at the submitter’s request because the sequence could not be confirmed”. However, the sequences can still be accessed (see links below) and they have evidence of recombination, especially the Anhui sequences, with wild bird H5N1 sequences in China (tree sparrows in Henan amd migratory ducks in Jiangxi). These wild bird sequences are more closely related to the H5N1 found in human cases.
The interaction between H5N1 in swine and H5N1 in migratory birds is cause for concern. The Qinghai strain has PB2 E627K and has been isolated from human cases in Turkey, Azerbaijan, Egypt, Iraq, and Djibouti. Infection of swine can lead to the accumulation of mammalian polymorphisms, which can lead to more efficient infection in swine and humans.”
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/09090601/High_Fever_Swine_China_CFR.html
If I may be presumptious, this looks like Quinghai Lake II (Swine Swoon in the Provinces).
The 2008 Olympics might be delayed, it will only cost China $20–40-Billion.
When I read these articles I quickly lost my appetite for pork. The first link is to a news article discussing the ways that China’s pig owners sell there dead, infected pigs. Yuck.
The second link is about SPAM (The processed pork in cans). After reading it I have decided to get rid of the cans of SPAM I have squirreled away for my SIP.
http://tinyurl.com/hmnhc (originally posted by caonacl at CE)
http://tinyurl.com/hqxjt Organic pork product
“Beijing Hormel Foods Company Ltd, a joint venture between Minnesota-based Hormel Foods Corporation and Beijing Sanyuan Group Co Ltd, has teamed up with Liaoning Zhenxing Group Ecology Development Co Ltd to promote its new product: Hormel Organic Fresh Pork. Liaoning Zhenxing will supply pigs to Beijing Hormel, which will be responsible for processing and retailing the meat.”
Some of the posts above state that no humans have died in relation to this pig illness. From the link I posted, that is not true then. So are humans dying in large numbers also? The Olympics connection is worth pondering. But how could they possible keep this under wraps for that long?
Science Teacher – at 16:21 wrote:
When I read these articles I quickly lost my appetite for pork. The first link is to a news article discussing the ways that China’s pig owners sell there dead, infected pigs. Yuck.
Science Teacher, thanks for helping to connect the dots. Nice Catch!
Beijing Hormel Foods Company Ltd, a joint venture between Minnesota-based Hormel Foods Corporation and Beijing Sanyuan Group Co Ltd, has teamed up with Liaoning Zhenxing Group Ecology Development Co Ltd to promote its new product: Hormel Organic Fresh Pork. Liaoning Zhenxing will supply pigs to Beijing Hormel, which will be responsible for processing and retailing the meat.
I’m not much of a pork eater and I have never liked spam anyway, and I know you always have to cook your meat completely. So my question is, if I were to open a can of spam is it possible to get sick from it, I did buy some for emergency starvation mode?
zoonotic disease was ruled out.
“The Ministry of Agriculture requests that all locales organize
veterinary personnel to go deep into local areas to guide farming
households in disinfection, isolation, and other comprehensive
prevention and control measures, and undertake immunization against
identified pathogens.”
but they have no identified pathogens. It’s undiagnosed.
So, how do they desinfect and undertake immunization
against “identified” pathigens ?
As I understood : when it’s influenza, then it can’t be undiagnosed.
They would know it.But why then this misleading new name, although
they must be aware that this will be unmasked soon ?
the measures taken and the recommendation of the reported conference, does it make sence for influenza or is it just invented by the newspaper to support the hiding ? Sorry, isn’t it more likely that it’s indeed some new unknown disease ?
anonymous – at 16:41
A brand new highly infectious disease with a high fatality rate in pigs would be big news. There is no innoucous interpretation of what is going on in China right now.
As regards your previous comment about not much concern being registered, SARS had been raging for months in Guandong before the rest of the world knew about it. A Chinese physician tried to warn Klaus Stohr at the WHO about what was going on, but Stohr ignored the warning, with disasterous results. The story was finally broken by Boxun and then reported in Promed. Promed has many sources of information. They usually get inside information before anyone else does. (Although FluWiki does a pretty job of this sometimes ;-) ).
I expect Dr. N. to have futher comments regarding this situation.
yes, he posted a comment meanwhile. I was distracted when he posted his travel-logs to the flutracker threat. That gave me the impression that he didn’t consider the whole story very serious.
Monotreme, do you have a link or a keyword to search for the Stoehr-SARS-warned story ? I couldn’t find it.
anonymous – at 18:32
Here you go:
Dead Silence. What the WHO knew
On November 23, 2002, officials with the World Health Organization attended an influenza conference in Beijing. And so began the story of the WHO and SARS – three crucial months before the deadly disease escaped from China. Disclosure takes a closer look at opportunities missed by the WHO.
Anyone want to understand those of us who bash the WHO? Read this inverview. People died because Klaus Stohr didn’t act on information he had. People died because Margaret Chan didn’t act on information she had. Klaus Stohr is still at the WHO and Margaret Chan is about to become the Director-General of the WHO.
Here’s an excerpt from the story above that pertains to the current situation in China and the WHO.
Dr. David Heymann – the man in charge of communicable diseases at the WHO:
In his 30 years investigating disease outbreaks, Dr. Cunnion got to know the WHO very well: “You don’t get into the club without political connections or working your way up the ranks. And so it’s a very closed group of people that wine and dine together … The problems are settled like a men’s club in London.”
And gentlemen, says Dr. Cunnion, think twice before sanctioning the fastest-growing economy in the world: “You don’t go slapping hands of a country that has more people than anybody else, and tremendous resources behind them … You don’t’ want to go offending these people if you don’t have to.”
And so, on February 21, 2003, with no global alerts in place and no travel advisories, there was nothing to stop that Chinese doctor from travelling to Hong Kong and checking into the Metropole Hotel. Nothing to stop the virus escaping and all those people dying.
It wasn’t until March 12th, three months after those first early warnings, that the WHO issued a global alert. A travel advisory against southern China would take three weeks more. By then, SARS was a global crisis: 62 people were dead; 1,800 more had been infected.
For all their earlier talk of stopping diseases before they spread, the WHO still insists the it couldn’t have done anything sooner.
FINDLAY: With respect, Dr. Heymann, you knew in November, December, January, this was a lethal disease. You knew in November, December and January that healthcare workers were being affected and dying. You knew -or you had the ability to know- from the Guangdong authorities what they had assessed this disease to be and how they were treating it. So what was different by -–
DR. HEYMANN: China, like Canada, is a sovereign state. We can only deal with China as its own sovereign state. We talked with them about the outbreak. We told them. We asked for information and they gave us information.
FINDLAY: But there was that period of a couple of weeks where one could argue that this could have been stopped. It may not have spread.
DR. HEYMANN: We do not have a mandate to stop a disease occuring in a country.
FINDLAY: You said that the reaseon you couldn’t put any travel alert in place is you didn’t understand what it was. It would be irresponsible –-
DR. HEYMANN: No, our mandate, I said, is international. When a disease begins to spread internationally, that’s when WHO’s mandate begins.
In April, 2003, China apologized to the world for not being more open about SARS. Several Chinese officials –including the Minister of Health– lost their jobs.
In Geneva, however, the World Health Organization conducted an internal review and concluded its handing of SARS was just fine.
Margaret Chan was one of the officials, in Hong Kong, that lost their jobs for incompetence. She and WHO officials have the blood of hundreds of people on their hands. Now they are going for millions.
Aug 8 Tom DVM – at 22:25
re: “You know what…this is starting to look like H5N1…they may be hiding it or are afraid to diagnose it for fear it is H5N1.
This is not good.”
That moved my PPF up!
Monotreme at 17:09: “There is no innocuous interpretation of what is going on in China right now”.
Monotreme, sometimes you are the master of understatement and at other times you just let it rip. I can’t decide which mode I like better. : )
AND anonymous: You know, now, if you would just prep a bit more these critical turning points wouldn’t get you spinning into the high gsssssss.
Monotreme, …this is offtopic here, (maybe start a new thread?) so I’ll stay short, thanks for the link, but it’s not clear to me how alarming that warning was to be interpreted at that time. Note, how Stoehr’s “relatively likely” was converted to “likely” by the reporter. “blood of hundredth of people on their hands” looks like propaganda to me. You could somehow say this about any official or politician then.
Grace RN at 19:06 — you’re not the only one. I just plunked $150 down at Sam’s Club this afternoon on more preps.
For the whole gang here — if this is, say, a recombined form of H5N1 and H1N1 or one of the other known pig flus, would it still test as H5N1? Because I’m wondering if the pigs had, say, a high path version of H1N1 because H1N1 had virus sex with H5N1 … then the Chinese could say in complete truth, “Our pigs don’t have H5N1. Here, look, here’s our test results. No H5N1 here.”
(“But what we’re not telling you is that them there hogs do have influenza.”)
THis may be splitting fine hairs … but it might be relevant for testing purposes in PEOPLE. i.e., if the pandemic starts, the rapid tests for H5N1 may be useless, right? (Also, it’d set ‘em back a few steps on making a vaccine, right?) I don’t know how they work, precisely, or how sensitive are they. I would assume the tests would still pick up influenza A, anyway.
I am a complete no-nothing on virus testing. Could existing virus tests be done on sick pigs to determine if it were flu virus, and how long would it take to determine the type, if this could be done. Also, can the WHO or NAMRU/CDC request that they test the pigs, or that the Chinese authorities pass on the results of tests? A WHO request would put pressure on China without accusing them of anything like a coverup. Chinese scientists are first-rate, and they must understand how actually or potentially dangerous this is. Getting the top politicians to agree is another matter, not unlike other places and organizations.
I found this map link on the other side of this wiki in the Geography thread. It is a map called “AvianInfluenza Areas of Concern” from the United Nations World flu Program. When you look at each of the distrubution maps for chicken density, pig density and H5N1 they seem to be extremely similiar to each other and all fairly close to Quinhai Lake. At least we will know which area to watch.
Science Teacher – at 16:21 …link is to a news article discussing the ways that China’s pig owners sell there dead, infected pigs. The second link is about SPAM (The processed pork in cans). After reading it I have decided to get rid of the cans of SPAM I have squirreled away for my SIP.
http://tinyurl.com/hmnhc (originally posted by caonacl at CE) Diseased pork sold as healthy roasted pigs in Ho Chi Minh City.
Ho Chi Minh City is in Vietnam, not China, Science Teacher. Not that it makes much difference, but the article is about roasted pork sold in-country, not export pork products. I think that the US doesn’t import a whole lot of pork from Vietnam, and I seriously doubt that USDA import inspectors would pass a Vietnamese shipment of putrid rotting pork carcasses covered with black spots.
Spam: It’s so processed and so full of chemicals that viruses and bacteria aren’t likely to survive. And either way, the CDC and WHO have reassured us that you can’t get avian influenza from dead animals. They are officially encouraging hunting activities. No worries, you can eat it.
Cygnet – at 19:57
There are two ways flu viruses can share genetic material, reassortment and recombination. Flu viruses have 8 segments. If they swap and entire segment, it’s reassortment. If they swap subsegments, its recombination. The current monster form of H5N1 actually did come into being by reassorting with another flu virus, so exchange between H5N1 and H1N1 is definitely possible. In fact, I speculated previously that a live virus vaccine for H1N1 commonly found in pigs, may have reassorted and/or recombined with H5N1 from birds. Can’t prove this yet.
The rapid evolution of flu viruses is one reason why we need sequences ASAP every time there is an outbreak. Without that sequence informaition, false negatives are very possible.
INFOMASS – at 20:03
I am a complete no-nothing on virus testing. Could existing virus tests be done on sick pigs to determine if it were flu virus, and how long would it take to determine the type, if this could be done.
They could determine whether it was flu A within a few hours. If it’s flu A, we’ve got problems, no matter what the subtype. If the PCR primers work, it should be possible to get the subtype in 24 hours. If they don’t, you may need 2 weeks.
Also, can the WHO or NAMRU/CDC request that they test the pigs, or that the Chinese authorities pass on the results of tests?
They can ask, but I don’t think China is under any obligation to answer.
A WHO request would put pressure on China without accusing them of anything like a coverup.
I wouldn’t hold my breath for this.
Chinese scientists are first-rate, and they must understand how actually or potentially dangerous this is.
Guan Yi in Hong Kong is first rate. He is well aware of the danger. Many of the scientists on the Mainland are political hacks and frauds. No-one paid any attention to science in China until the 1990′s. I could tell you stories… Anyways, they are now spending significant sums on show labs. Some of the scientists are OK, but many play the same game everyone who wants money in China plays, Guanxi, plus subtle and not so subtle fraud. This happens in all countries, but the authoritarian and unsophisticated politicians of China are easier to fool.
With the deaths of so many chickens and pigs in China, doesn’t that present a real risk of starvation for the people?
Hi everyone. I have been doing a lot of thinking this afternoon about this connundrum. I think we can come to some conclusions with the excellent…no really excellent detective work done in this thread by everyone concerned.
1) this is not any standard porcine disease…this is not hog cholera or strept suis etc…
…This is something totally exotic and unique to the massive pig populations in China.
2) We were speculating a month and two months ago that the Chinese Government was acting very funny…even for them…and there are a few experts on China’s governments behavior on flu wiki.
This disease kills far to fast to be anything seen before and it is killing the young and middle aged age group which may not be highly significant but is interesting in its own right.
The deaths mentioned in the Aug. 9 report were concerning deaths from strept suis but I would ask how 36 people could die that way if the meat was cooked properly…so this doesn’t exactly all add up either.
Virus etiology…
1) my first guess would not be influenza but NIPAH virus…which has equal pandemic potential to H5N1 and is a disease that evolved in pig herds.
2) my second guess if it is not NIPAH is another influenza…likely would be H5N1 or may be another…there has been a lot of H7 around the world and it is probably time for an H7 outbreak in China.
This leads to two things…The Chinese Government and the World Health Organization are acting in collusion…after two months they damned well know exactly what the bug is…in fact there may be several experts around the world that no what the bug is…Dr. Nabarro probably doesn’t know because his colleagues at the WHO don’t like him.
In the next two weeks we have to watch for reports of DENGUE in China…if they announce any unusual deaths or Dengue in particular…we’ve got ourselves a pandemic folks…damn it anyway!!
This is why the Chinese Government has been acting funny and the fact that the Chinese Government was jumped through that many hoops for this specific disease…a disease limited to pigs while not worrying one bit about the Foot and Mouth epidemic in China…
…should be great cause for concern.
Tom DVM – at 22:34 End of September maybe first of October Tom, and I still have not seen crap that the FEDS are moving in either country. I wish that TPTB would give a tug on their ears.;
GraceRN and Cygnet…I did another shopping trip today also. This pig thing is getting me a bit nervous. With all the technology and education you’d think they would know what is killing these pigs..I think they do know, and because they are withholding the info, I then ask why??
China is a country of perfect uncertainty.
China is a country of perfect uncertainty.
ANON 451. You hit the nail on the head. It’s really time that Klatu and Edna and MaMa and the rest of our sleuths put their ear’s to the ground to look for unusual movements of experts such as Dr. Webster or Governments etc…especially conferences arranged hastily.
Secondly, we should be monitoring armies and unusual movements around infrastructure etc.
Somebody is going to slip up and let us no conclusively that we are in the final countdown…
…I have had a funny feeling for a while that serious statements would be made by leaders as to the imminence of H5N1 for some time…don’t know why…maybe I’m a witch and don’t know it. /;0)
“The number of dengue fever cases in south China’s Guangdong Province rose to 276 on Wednesday, an increase of 29 since Tuesday, said the provincial health department.
The cases include 245 in Guangzhou, the provincial capital, 22 in Yangjiang, six in Foshan and one each in Zhuhai, Jieyang and Chaozhou, said the department.”
Yikes, TomDVM, please explain.
Tom DVM – at 23:05 Dr. Webster-
I have not heard much from Webster lately. I would have thought he would be talking about INDO. Has anyone here got any info about Wevster’s current views/statements?
Thanks Nightowl I think. I have been reading Barry’s book on 1918…although I am having a terrible time getting through it for whatever reason…
…In the preamble to the 1918 event…H1N1 was being misdiagnosed as Dengue fever all over the place and all over the world in many distinct geographical locations…
…since H5N1 is a ‘kissin cousin’ to H5N1(not sure if that is from Dr. Tananburger or Dr. Osterholm)…and since I have great belief in patterns in nature repeating themselves…then …
1) Dengue fever will be misdiagnosed so that we miss the start of the pandemic
2)The Chinese Government likes taking the ‘least line of resistance’…misreporting H5N1 as Dengue fever buys them significant time.
Dennis If you find Dr. Webster in China in the next few weeks or even worse…you see Dr. Webster and Dr. Osterhaus in the same place in China in the next few weeks…for any reason and I bet they would try and give you one…WE ARE SCREWED…NO DOUBT ABOUT IT!!
Lethal H5N1 influenza viruses escape host anti-viral cytokine responses
The H5N1 influenza viruses transmitted to humans in 1997 were highly virulent, but the mechanism of their virulence in humans is largely unknown. Here we show that lethal H5N1 influenza viruses, unlike other human, avian and swine influenza viruses, are resistant to the antiviral effects of interferons and tumor necrosis factor . The nonstructural (NS) gene of H5N1 viruses is associated with this resistance. Pigs infected with recombinant human H1N1 influenza virus that carried the H5N1 NS gene experienced significantly greater and more prolonged viremia, fever and weight loss than did pigs infected with wild-type human H1N1 influenza virus. These effects required the presence of glutamic acid at position 92 of the NS1 molecule. These findings may explain the mechanism of the high virulence of H5N1 influenza viruses in humans
How many people got dengue fever in China let’s say last year at this time? We could compare the #’s to this year’s #.
Tom DVM – at 23:17 H5N1 as dengue to gain time- do you think that also applies to the Phillippines?
Oh yes from the report I listed above: “Inoculation of pigs with viruses. Groups of three 5-wk-old Yucatan miniature pigs (Charles River Laboratories, Windham, Maine) were inoculated intranasally with 0.6 ml of a 1 106 TCID50/ml suspension of A/PR/8/34 (H1N1), RecPR8-NS(H5N1/97) or RecPR8-NS(E92D)(H5N1/97). The pigs’ nostrils were swabbed daily to quantify virus shedding, and their body weight and temperature were measured daily. Infection experiments were performed in a BL3+ containment facility. The pigs were housed in laminar flow cabinets and were handled by a single person who wore protective clothing and a fitted HEPA filter mask.”
notice this is from a 26 August 2002 study. now why would they have worried about such things so early?
Hello everyone, if you google “undiagnosed pig deaths 2006″ you mostly get hits within the scientific communities. With this in mind I have sent e-mails to cnn, abc, cbs, etc, with links and requests that they investigate this story. I think we need to shine the media spotlight on this so that we can get the answers that we need. Just my two cents.
Ruth – at 23:28 How many people got dengue fever in China
“Dengue fever cases in south China province rise to 276 The number of dengue fever cases in south China’s Guangdong Province rose to 276 on Wednesday, an increase of 29 since Tuesday, said the provincial health department.
The cases include 245 in Guangzhou, the provincial capital, 22 in Yangjiang, six in Foshan and one each in Zhuhai, Jieyang and Chaozhou, said the department. … In 2002 more than 1,000 people were infected with dengue fever in Guangdong. “
http://tinyurl.com/jrymm
Ruth. That is a very good point…but the trouble is that weather conditions can significantly impact seasonal diseases so there could be an increase or a decrease in cases and it would not indicate too much.
If we see a change it would have to be much bigger than anything seen for years or decades.
Dennis C. I didn’t check your link at 23:27 but as a scientist I don’t think ethically I would be doing that experiment…and that means also means…the ‘keystone cops’ in China have been doing the same thing…and I have felt for a long time that this was manmade I was afraid to say it but I think, even though it was a while ago, that DeJure jumped and made the claim that it was manmade.
I just read the news thread for the first time today and saw the really nice work you and others have been doing on Dengue there.
I suppose any government might use Dengue to cover up H5N1 but from my extensive studies of Asian countries…honestly, China was the only blatantly unethical country I ran into with respect to food quality and intentionally adulterating food exported to North America…
…so other Asian countries might be incompetent to varying degrees but they are not maliscously incompetent like China is day after day, week after week, month after month…and year after year.
All I can say is I have been around some pretty smart people in my day but none that were any smarter than my colleagues and friends on flu wiki!!
…and that is an honest statement.
Thanks TomDVM for the info and the alert to the news thread. Viet Nam also is having an epidemic of Dengue fever.
Since we can’t get any info out of China, I am keeping an eye on the border countries. At some point, whatever this illness in pigs is, China won’t be able to contain it (smuggling for one thing).
The reference to Viet Nam is from June. I’ll look for an update.
tom
Can pigs get dengue fever? (I just am trying to cross of possiblities.) I am afraid that they are just “sweeping the H5n1″ under the dengue rug.
Tom DVM – at 23:05
Secondly, we should be monitoring armies and unusual movements around infrastructure etc.
When I read this story on CNN a few days ago, I thought it was unnatural and too much of a rush to hand over control when the Iraqis were not ready.
Iraq to begin operational control of military
The Iraqi government on Thursday is expected to begin assuming direct operational control of its military forces from the U.S.-led coalition.
A ceremony had been scheduled for last Saturday but was delayed because of technical concerns and Iraqi questions. A U.S. military spokesman downplayed the delay.
The Iraqi government immediately will assume control of the air and naval forces as well as an Iraqi army division, said Maj. Gen. William Caldwell. More divisions will fall under Iraqi government control in the coming months, Caldwell added.
http://www.hku.hk/rss/rs2002/rpg_20700_gen.html
Don’t know if any of this is impotant but they have been studying this for quite awhile.
Project Title: The development and application of DNA microarrays to study the avian influenza virus gene pool in southern China Investigator(s): Prof. Peiris J.S.M., Dr. Guan Y., Dr. Yang M.M.S. Department: Microbiology Source(s) of Funding: Block Grant Earmarked for Research Start Date: November 2001 Abstract: To develop a DNA microarray to genotype H9N2, H6N1 and H5N1 subtype viruses of diverse lineages. The longer term aim (through other research funding) would be to develop a comprehensive DNA array that can characterise all (or most) avian influenza viruses in this region. Such high throughput methods will allow a detailed understanding of the evolution of these viruses and the genetic basic for interspecies transmission.
Project Title: The Zoonotic potential of influenze viruses in Southeastern China Investigator(s): Prof. Peiris J.S.M., Dr. Guan Y., Prof. Shortridge K.F., Dr. Webster R.G. Department: Microbiology Source(s) of Funding: The Wellcome Trust, U.K. Start Date: May 2002 Abstract: To establish the epidemiological dynamics and a spatially structured ecological / epidemiological model of influenza in poultry and pigs in Hong Kong and mainland China that provide conditions for interspecies transmission of influenza viruses; to determine if certain genotypes of influenza viruses have pandemic potential.
DennisC. Good question…I don’t think so…but I am certainly not an expert on Asian disease…I think dengue is an insect mediated disease like West Nile that I believe has also mutated to increase virulence and broadened transmissibility recently.
ANON YYZ. I don’t know if we can draw anything from Iraq at this point but who knows.
DennisC, Webster was in Laos in August. U.S. Embassy
It would have been nice if they had posted the talk considering its title.
When I googled the title, I found notes on the talk written in a Commentary section of the Last Hurrah site from Oct, 2005 by our very own Dem from CT Here is the link to his notes — may need to scroll down the page to them http://tinyurl.com/7nwdj Oct 8th, 2005 @ 17:03 I’d copy them here, however it is long.
correction the notes were posted by empty pockets, not Dem from CT. They appeared below Dem’s comment. Guess it’s late.
Thanks MAinVA. Any luck on a current transcript as I am sure he updated the talk portion when he presented in Laos?
There have been a rash of Dengue fever outbreaks reported over the last few days in Asia where the rates of infection are nearly double to the prior years experience. I have been sleuthing Dengue for a year or so now and really have not been paying attention over the past few weeks until tonight. The most alarming report is out of India where Dengue patients were diagnosed without testing and Drs were haggling over what was the actual cause of death. I scanned the death rates as well and 5% is not unusal for Dengue but many of the reports are showing 10% or higher and thats the main reason for my post---I assume a CFR of 5% or lower and I’ll buy the Dengue argument but a higher CFR than that and I grow very suspicious. Here are some recent news links that probably wont be there for too long, and please note the Phillipine State of emergency for Dengue outbreak, the same people that announced a wild bird migration watch for bird flu…hmmm Not exactly late night sleeping material. http://www.hindustantimes.com/news/5922_1790723,0015002500030000.htm http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2006/09/10/2003326957 http://oheraldo.in/node/18787 http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/topofthehour.aspx?StoryId=49912
I have been following this thread kind of like a Ping Pong match. One thought that was posted earlier was also on my mind, but has not been addressed by the learned folk here. Grace RN asked a while back whether all of the pig deaths might impact food supply in China. If you have pressure on poultry both from the disease and from cullling, and now, apparently a disease which is capable of decimating the pig population as well, what whould we be looking for to tell us that China is starting to have food problems? Would we see changes in the export/import balance of China? Would we see price fluctuations in Chinese cities which were explained as profiteering?
If things got bad quickly, even if Disease-X is not H5N1, would China have to shift from a commercial economy to a militarized (more than now) one to begin readying itself to acquire what it needs from wherever it needs to get it?
We need to give the main pandemic people like doctor Webster, some of those global positioning pendants you can use to track your kids with.
Eccles, producing meat is inefficient with respect to food-energy. When you eat the corn/bread directly you get more energy than when you feed the pigs with corn and then eat the meat. You could expect diseases resulting from nutrition imbalance or such when meat-production is reduced but not food problems.
Anonymous - That has nothing whatsoever to do with the discussion at hand. The pigs in China are not being fed the same stuff peoiple would be likely to be eating anyway.
HL, do you have a quick overview how many H5N1-cases there were when we assume that Dengue has 5% mortality, BF 50% and the cases are mixed ?
… a rough estimate would do, since there is uncertainety anyway.
Here is one more report from Vietnam: It is a concern since they reveal a doubling of the cases of Dengue, and meningitis both of which are common misdiagnosis of H5N1. In addition, the death rate is doubling as well but it is still well below 5%. The 5% fatality number I used in the posts above is not scientific since most authorities quote a 1% CFR for Dengue as typical. How does that work? Well, you have a 1% chance of death with no treatment for Dengue, but walk into a 3rd world hospital and your odds just increased by 5 fold:) http://www.thanhniennews.com/healthy/?catid=8&newsid=19359
China reports six children infected with newly identified virus
China, Aug 23, 2006 - Health experts in China have detected the human bocavirus (HboV) in six children living in Chenzhou city in central China’s Hunan province, the first confirmed cases of HboV in the country. Duan Zhaojun, associate researcher with the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), said in tests taken since October 2005, six out of 72 samples of phlegm taken from children under one year of age have tested positive for the virus. No further details were given on the cases other than the fact that infants appear to be more vulnerable to the virus, with symptoms resulting in fever and pneumonia after infection. Swedish researchers first identified and named the HboV in August 2005, indicating that the virus had the potential to cause countless cases of serious respiratory infections in children. Health experts say being able to quickly diagnose and treat respiratory illness has become paramount, amid growing fears of a global avian influenza pandemic. China is particularly sensitive about emerging diseases, given its slow response and reluctance to release information on its severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak in 2002–2003 and more recently, with avian influenza. In addition to China, HboV has been confirmed in Australia, Canada, Japan, South Africa and Thailand. Reference
Yet another illness with fever and pneumonia. China is busy with the news lately.
(good one, Oremus)
anonymous – at 02:03 I am not able to extrapolate H5N1 cases from the data but I simply look at the standard deviation of Dengue cases and an inflection point of the 2nd standard deviation for cases that do not have a legitimate causal vector and just make the intuitive leap that it very likely H5N1. I do not speculate, for if it is H5N1 then we will all know in a few weeks.
Tom DVM – at 23:17
On the Indonesia Outbreak VII thread, post yesterday by MaMa – at 10:33, sites article where little girl confirmed dying of BF was diagnosed dengue fever by her doctor previously. (For the record.)
Eccles is asking some important questions at 01:36. Even if China didn’t have food problems, watching for the things he cites (export/import, etc.) would provide more clues as to how serious the situation with infectious disease may be getting in China.
High incidence of dengue fever has been explained as due to more rain this year. Indonesia is worried about the monsoon season. 1918 was preceded by unusual dengue outbreaks. Seemingly unrelated. Or we don’t know how to connect the dots yet.
HL, can you provide the data then, so we can do our own calculations ?
Dry Heat at curevents:
Today, 12:03 AM DryHeat
Over at fluwiki, the poster Tom DVM has offered the possibility
of the NIPAH virus being responsible for this situation.
Do a Google on it, seems plausible to me. For example, see:
http://rarediseases.about.com/od/rarediseasesn/a/091104.htm
Has a history of spreading from fruit bats to pigs,
with a tiny bit of human illness a couple years ago.
Sounds like if it is NIPAH in these Chinese pigs, though,
it’s become more contagious, which might mean it has more
potential now to infect humans than it did in the past.
Influenzas aren’t eliminated though, dammit, whatever it
is needs to be diagnosed!
>><<
anonymous – at 02:41 I do not stash data, only intelligence so you’ll have to mine what you ‘find as data’. Nightowl – at 02:24 and Eccles: There has never been a shortage of food in the world and neither will there be, there has, however, been a shortage of money to buy that food on many occasions. Thus, looking for higher prices might make sense, but usually the first sign of a derivative strain on a commodity market is watching substition. In extreme cases think of firewood over heating oil etc, or fish over poultry and pork. Japan has a decent exchange based commodity market for many food products in Asia.
now, this mysterious pig-disease is clearly expanding. They couldn’t stop it. The measures suggested at the Chinese video-conference don’t sound likely to me to stop it either. In just a few months it infected millions of pigs. What can we expect ? Even if we assume that humans are not affected, how many pigs will die until the end of the year ? Do you think they will be able to contain it, when they even have no diagnosis yet ? Will the disease spread to other countries earlier or later ? This dramatic increase in cases in just a few months, is it also typical for other pig-diseases, which _can_ be contained ?
is a pig-pandemic likely now ?
but HL, don’t you think that that someone should examine the data and make a clear statistics and maybe even present it in a paper ? Your suspicion sounds important enough to me to be examined. Is it being done ? Is someone (secretely…) working on it ?
This isn’t good. No, not good at all.
just another (silly ?) idea: could it be that SARS has jumped to pigs ?
If there were a food shortage developing in China,it might show up in Chinese prices or, more likely, in imports of fish, beef, poultry and even pork. The US has good trade data by country and product with a 2–3 month lag. (Go to www.fedstats.gov and select “Economics” and then find “International Trade” under the Department of Commerce. It takes a bit of searching.) If a food shortage were developing, they would be buying more from us. If it were in sufficient quantities, there would be an observable price rise in US markets. The Chinese do feed some soybeans to animals and could fall back on using these directly as a protein food (tofu, etc.) and this gives them a bit of a cushion. I will check and post if there are any unusual movements.
I should have checked the data first. There has been a FALL in China’s meat and fish imports from the US (by value), and also a fall in global US exports of soybeans. This suggests that, at least through June 2006, the pig disease has not caused any increase in imports of products that would be expected. By the way, after clicking on “Economic” choose “Census” [which is part of Commerce] and then click on “International Trade”. The section on “Agriculture” also has a lot of data on specific commodities. It is possible that the damage done form these diseases will only show up in a few months in trade changes. It is even possible that the sick animals are slaughtered and processed for human consumption. This might explain the decline in US exports (=Chinese imports) and raises many health questions.
aren’t these products also traded on forward markets ? Shouldn’t longterm pig-prices rise due to expected shortness while shortterm prices may fall due to slaughtering ?
I meant pig-meat prices on Chinese forward markets, not life pigs.
That’s quite a website, INFOMASS. Thanks. I checked one of my data point websites to see what the China officials are up to. Vice Premier Wu Yi has been traveling in China in the last few days. That is good news pandemic-wise. China Vitae
anonymous – at 07:49 aren’t these products also traded on forward markets ? Shouldn’t longterm pig-prices rise due to expected shortness while shortterm prices may fall due to slaughtering?
“Among the many factors reducing the U.S. (hog slaughter) figure: Breeding problems last summer resulted in fewer births; an outbreak of disease drove the porcine mortality rate above typical levels last fall and winter; and a 16% rise in export sales, abetted by the weaker dollar, further tightened domestic supply.”
Curt Thacker, Barron’s. July 3, 2006.
“In the first few months of 2006, hog prices were pressured by an over-supply of competing meats, but lately demand has been surprisingly strong and prices have climbed to new contract highs. The June 1st count of all U.S. hogs and pigs was 60.9 million head, up .3% from a year ago. The March to May pig crop was up 1.2% from a year ago. On August 11th, the USDA said that pork production will increase 1.6% in 2006 and so far, pork production is up 1.2%. The price estimate for barrows and gilts was increased from 45.0 to 45.5 cents for 2006 (61.5 cents lean). The 2007 price estimate was kept at 40.5 cents per pound. Frozen pork inventory as of July 31, 2006, was 412 million pounds, down 14% from a year ago. Frozen bellies totalled 37.3 million pounds, down 26% from a year ago.”
Analysis quoted from http://www.dailyfutures.com/livestock/
yes.
And now the same for Anhui or Hongkong or Shanghai or such, please.
If the pig illness is Nipah, how long does it take to get a definitive test. Would China have the capability to test for it?
From China, 9/1/06:
Farmers’ interest in taking up piglet supplies varied from region to region. In the north, farmers were mostly concerned over the possibility of pig diseases which are likely to occur in autumn. Going forward, lower temperatures will also slow the rate of fattening hogs, and this has discouraged some farmers from taking up supplies.
The temperature in southern China’s winter will still be higher than those in the north. Other than in the areas affected by pig diseases, farmers’ interest in buying piglets are still higher.
In the initial period of the pig disease outbreak, many hogs and sows had succumbed to the disease. Traders and meat processors had thus seized the opportunity to bargain for very low hog procurement prices. This had affected farmers’ interest in taking up piglet supplies, and piglet prices were slightly lower even in the unaffected areas during the first half of the week in review.
Earlier, the pig disease had also killed many hogs, especially in farms with big herds in parts of Hunan province. After authorities there had rolled out measures to bring the outbreak under control, piglet replenishment activities had started to recover.
Meanwhile, deliveries of piglets to other regions had also increased. In regions where piglet inventory had been low, farmers were seen more active in taking up piglet supplies.
By making piglet replenishment during this period (late August to September), farmers were hoping to bring in profits early next year as piglets would have fattened sufficiently to be sold as hogs during the Spring Festival (Feb 18) in 2007.
Parts of south-western China continued to be plagued by a dry spell. With temperature hovering around 40 deg C, farmers there were less active in taking up piglet supplies.
Market forecast As measures to control the pig disease takes effect, analysts expect piglet replenishment in regions previously affected by pig disease to pick up.
In the week ahead, piglet replenishment activities are expected to pick up in southern China, while those in the north may not increase much. Overall, piglet prices are seen stable.
COMMENT
“many hogs and sows had succumbed to the disease. Traders and meat processors had thus seized the opportunity to bargain for very low hog procurement prices.”
Hopefully, the hogs they were procuring at very low prices were NOT the same ones that has succumbed to disease…
It seems premature to look for an economic impact from the death of ‘only’ 1 million pigs. There are 960 million pigs in the world. China has approximately half of them. The infection rate (reported) is less than 1 percent (.52%) and CFR is (.20%) assuming 40% CFR and 1 million dead.
An economic impact could be estimated if we knew how transmissible this is. I know we’re not there yet.
For the DVM’s and other scientists: Others have pointed out that 80% of the pigs in China are in backyard farms. Is there any data to determine whether the infected group is predominantly ‘back yard pigs’ versus commercial farms? Is the distribution consistent? If the affected group is skewed to the commerical farmers is there any likelihood that the condition is due to direct inoculation rather than ‘on the wind’?
anonymous – at 09:06. Sorry, that is me.
Dennis in Colorado – at 08:44
“Earlier, the pig disease had also killed many hogs, especially in farms with big herds in parts of Hunan province. After authorities there had rolled out measures to bring the outbreak under control,…”
Seems almost like business as usual, it’s at odds with the concern on this thread. I wonder how they controlled it.
Closed and continued here.
I spent 2–3 hours yesterday surfing on both English and Chinese language sites until I got bleary-eyed from pig diseases, pig prices, pig fevers, pig skin rashes….. <g>
Anyway, first for the prices. What the Chinese language media inside of China ie local agricultural news is reporting for a few months now is a rise in pork prices because of increased demand as a knock-on effect from avian flu, when people switch to eating more pork and less poultry. BTW most of that info is reported as part of something like a stock analyst’s report for small investors, so they know which company to buy, presumably. Interesting.
So that’s for prices.
I read various bits about swine fevers etc. There are a couple of sources of confusion. Apparently, when they say ‘pig/hog/swine high fever disease’, it only describes a clinical syndrome of high fever, usually spreading rapidly through, which can include a number of diagnoses. One of the agricultural colleges (sorry, can’t remember which and no link, gotta do better next time) say that the commonest cause is still swine fever, either the ‘classical’ type, or the ‘atypical’ or mild type when the pigs have been vaccinated but the vaccines were not entirely effective, so they get a milder syndrome (probably not this time though). That seems to be the consensus from other sites as well.
Another paper gave the following as causes for high fever and reddish or purpuric (similar to bruising) rashes:
Later stages of swine fever can cause pneumonia with respiratory symptoms.
The human cases: there are references in Hong Kong media of people being confirmed as Streptococcus Suis infections.
Swine fever does not appear to transmit to humans.
OK, that’s what I understand so far.
My impression: They’ve been having outbreaks of high fever in pigs in the summer for the past few years, and this year its said to be worse. I think it is still most likely swine fever, with some Strep suis.
However, I did read one interesting commentary (I believe it was academic and not government or media, but I’m not 100% sure, doing this from memory.) that there is a collection of syndromes that are very similar that break out around the same time each year. There are difficulties in diagnosing them properly, but most of the bigger outbreaks are likely to be swine fever. Then there was this one sentence, that usually the first outbreak in the season is swine flu, which generally lasts a short time and doesn’t kill a lot of the pigs, but reduces their resistance to the subsequent viruses. By the time you know there are large outbreaks of fever, the flu phase is over, so tests for flu would be negative.
I thought that was interesting, for what it’s worth.