From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: Pigs in China the Hidden Mammalian Reservoir for H 5 N 1 Part 5

11 September 2006

Monotreme – at 21:42

Part 1

Part 2

Part 3

Part 4

Monotreme – at 21:51

Here is anon_22′s translation of an article that appeared in an Hong Kong article on September 5 2006. The original text was written in Chinese by Mr. Haode Fang and published in Asia Times. Thanks to anonymous for posting the link and machine translation,to Dan Silver for giving anonymous the link and to anon_22 for her translation.

anon_22 – at 14:22

Here is my translation of the first paragraph of the piece posted by anonymous – at 20:38. I’m not going to translate the whole thing for copyright and other reasons, but I will make bullet point notes as I go along.

(When you think in 2 different languages, your grammar goes out the window.)

The Ministry of Agriculture in China confirmed on Sept 4th that since this summer outbreaks of a pig disease have been happening in areas of southern China. Since pigs have both human and avian receptors to avian flu viruses, they can be infected by both types. If these 2 different types of viruses infect the same pig cell at the same time, they may exchange genetic materials. Because of this, health experts should not take lightly this report of an outbreak of pig disease in southern China, and the relevant Ministries of the Chinese government should not gloss over problems related to this outbreak.

anon_22 – at 14:32

Monotreme – at 21:56

One of Tom DVM’s post’s that I think deserves re-reading.

Tom DVM – at 13:22

We don’t know whether this is H5N1 or Nipah or some other mutated and therefore exotic virus to pigs…

…and the really dumb thing is that the World Health Organization could have cleared this ‘tempest in a teapot’ up a week ago or a month ago or it now appears maybe a year ago…

…It’s pretty clear that once again like H5N1 in chickens, SARS, Foot and Mouth and Strept. suis, they are hiding something…and that’s the point…when they cover things up there always turns out to be a very good reason why they covered everything up…and the most likely source of the cover-up at this point is H5N1 or other influenza…the most likely being H7N7.

If the World Health Organization and my friend Dick Thompson would like to treat their fellow travellers with respect for their intelligence…they can choose their mode of delivery AND PROVIDE FULL DISCLOSURE with independent verification by a scientific third party (I know longer trust anything that the World Health Organization says based on a clear track record…their comments are rumours to me until backed up by independent sources).

Now, even if this turns out to be a million pigs with H5N1, that does not mean the pandemic is tomorrow…that means we don’t have two years to the pandemic and regulators and governments around the world already know it. That might be a partial explanation for Dr. Nabarro’s fatigue according to Goju.

So my point would be that if the pigs have it or if the World Health Organization doesn’t provide data soon to disprove H5N1 as the cause…then it is time for me to start prepping in a hurry and it is time for you to finish your preps because the likelyhood of a pandemic this year just doubled. Thanks for the question.

Monotreme – at 22:07

Several points I would like to make:

My interpretation. Agricultural officials in mainland China are trying to gloss over the million+ pig deaths by referring to them as “pig fever” which presumably occurs due to excessive heat and humidity. People in Hong Kong are concerned that it might really be H5N1. 5 days after the article was published, Mainland China took away Hong Kong’s right to publish in Mainland China without the approval of a censor.

I don’t know if H5N1 is really causing all of these deaths, but I agree with Tom DVM, if there was an innocuous explanation, why haven’t heard it? Even the mainland vets seem to think this is an infectious disease, not caused by heat.

This reminds me of SARS. Bet it does to people in Hong Kong, too.

Perhaps this time, Mainland officials are going to make sure the people there don’t find out what’s going on until it’s too late.

Tom DVM – at 23:42

Hi Monotreme I have been doing some thinking about the issue of H5N1 in pigs tonight in reference to this million pigs and 40% CFR if the reports are correct…could be more…could be less…who knows.

The conclusion I have come to is that it really doesn’t matter whether this grouping (or massive grouping) of pigs has H5N1 or not…well it does matter but that is not the whole story.

When I was reading about how Nipah got underway with bats pooping (or falling) into these massive pig operations with so many pigs that a wave of adaptive mutations resulted allowing the jump in two species barriers…SARS in the same location as H5N1 in China, at least two jumps of the species barrier from Bats (again) to civet cats to humans and I also think Cattle were involved (do to my experience with coronavirus in cattle).

Okay, so here’s the bottom line. If chickens in this area have had H5N1 in an area where pigs are located then pigs automatically have had H5N1. Why would they not get H5N1…they are more susceptible to influenza then we are…

…so for 7 years H5N1 has been circulating in pigs, maybe one or two, maybe whole herds…we don’t know about the transmissibility coefficient…

…Has this occured clinically? We don’t know

Has this occured subclinically? We don’t know…

…but of course I have an opinion. This virus has been circulating in pigs subclinically this whole time…pigs are your tertiary host.

The problem I had was that I did not understand the numbers of pigs in this area and I did not understand the expansion in pig numbers in this area…and most importantly, I did not understand that 80 % of these pigs were in backyard, small herds…

…I know ‘recipe for disaster’ is an overused cliche but this one really is…this has to be the tertiary host we have been looking for.

Also look at Nipah…similar virus bats and pigs…SARS bats and civet cats…H5N1has to be bats and pigs.

It kind of all makes sense now…even to the point that they realized what was happening and never hesitating to make the same mistake twice, the Chinese Government decided to vaccinate their way out of a hole…

…you figured it out and/or they figured it out and they pulled the sequences. The vaccine was bad because all their vaccines are bad…and now it looks like, once again, we have an assisted ‘naturally weaponized’ rogue strain of H5N1 now maybe circulating in pigs…

…case closed in my opinion.

12 September 2006

Dude – at 00:07

We still need hard data. Somebody knows what is going on. The deaths of so many pigs from whatever cause is very bad news for the mammals of this planet. There is no excuse for the censorship actions they are taking! They will censor news about a potential world pandemic! I don’t believe in coincidence. What ever happened to honor in the world or at least humanity.

Nightow – at 00:09

TomDVM - The following article supports your’s and Monotreme’s thesis and also spotlights the role that people are playing in the bats to animal/pigs to human path for emerging infectious disease. I don’t know if it has been posted before. It is just loaded with information.

The Real Batman Story

anonymous – at 00:15

here is a more detailed translation with Babelfish and Google of the already posted article. It contains more details about the disease and isn’t cut after one page.




Swine fever prevention and control how high? [Posted from : machinery : Jian-Xong Chen Pig Association : 570 hits updating time : 2006–9−4] Swine fever of unknown fever here #21363; #29482; here syndrome is a higher incidence and mortality rates The disease mainly occurred in the formative period of pig and some sows, in 21 clinical Table is the temperature increase, mental depression, food Inquiries should repeal or bearish, difficulty breathing and wheezing gas, some pig with skin flush Violet and other symptoms, a few pore bleeding. for a wide range of major pathogenic viruses and bacteria, The secondary mixed infections and parasitic infections , including swine fever virus (HCV), and porcine reproductive and shout absorption syndrome virus (PRRSV), swine influenza virus (SIV), pseudorabies virus (ADV), porcine circovirus disease drug type 2 (PCV-II) Actinobacillus actinomycetemcomitans and Actinobacillus pleuropneumoniae (APP), an Streptococcus suis type 2 (SS-II), Deputy Haemophilus Paratuberculosis (HP), Pasteurella multocida (PM), Pig mycoplasma pneumonia (MH), toxoplasmosis, attached red cell, Salmonella cholerae - suis (SC), etc. Bacteria infection. By the end of May 2006, some areas Many farms and bred pigs and the Department of Growth Sow hours, unnamed high conservation pig pig fever, most suffering from pig fat pig disease at the rate of more than 50% mortality rate is as high as 50 ¡« 90% of pigs and pig farmers to a serious economic losses, which some farms bankruptcy. Since the etiology complicated, the general mixed infection of the pathogen more clinical difficult to control, treatment often ignored like, slow growth or stagnation caused Pig , invalidity pigs and dead pigs increase in feed Efficiency, and the growth rate of the whole Pig The evenness lower the cost of treatment increase Canada, suffered serious losses in pig production missing. Feature 1. The high temperatures in the season longer duration, generally 5–20 days, the disease death rates were high. 2. Farms do not attach importance to this work, poor health concepts and technical personnel, not strike Georgia closed farms, not for the Pig The incidence of serious health farm system. 3. The weight of pig disease in general for middle 80kg, the highest incidence rates, but also the weaning Piglet disease. 4. Drug treatment is not satisfactory, indiscriminate use of drugs pig higher mortality. Clinical symptoms 40~42.5 ¡ã C temperature rise to the incidence pig. depression, anorexia or decreased intake Waste must, flush with pig skin, ear after ear Edge cyanosis, behind, and limbs and other tips multiple skin patches were purple red; breathing difficulties, I am pleased trees, the Department sub pig serious abdominal breathing, gas shortness of breath, or some performance was not pant Rules respiration; Some pigs suffering from a runny nose, sneezing, coughing and eye secretions increase Most pigs tears Cod, there conjunctiva Symptoms; Some Pig constipation, fecal Peru and shows a spherical, less hormone, mixed Mud color. longer disease course Pig pallor, anemia, Hair rough, some diseased pigs hind legs unable to individual diseased pigs can not stand before dying. Finally convulsions died. Pig disease high mortality rates, and some even higher farms reached 50–90%. Sow in late pregnancy, some (100 ¡« 110 days) appeared abortion, stillbirth production, weak Aberdeen and mummies. Autopsy changes All have different way App The pneumonia Autopsy shows the following symptoms : 1. Pulmonary edema, stiffen; Admission was not prevent a rubber-like lung disease interstitial pneumonia obviously like lungs like to show mottled brown Israel lesions (like marble); Most pneumonia infection, purulent favorite, the Department sub lung bleeding, hemorrhagic pneumonia, among quality significantly widened. 2. Extensive lymph node enlargement, in particular, inguinal lymph nodes and hilar lymph nodes. 3. Some App swelling of the liver, Yen pale-green color, there was some liver Loess color crisp, individual swine kidney, bladder, larynx and fats and heart center outside coating l bleeding; Some kidney enlargement App , become darker in color was brown or khaki , the texture crisp, disciplined phenomenon. there The diseased pigs Splenomegaly, obscure. 4. Pleural cellulose multiple serous Yan and peritonitis, and pleural and peritoneal have defibrillators Victoria protein leakage. individual lung serous Cellulose and pleural or pericardial adhesions. Control Measures The disease causes complex, the general diseased pigs After more bad fight should insist on prevention mainly through strengthening husbandry management, engaging good to prevent sunstroke and lower temperature, advancing health advance defense stepping up disinfection work and symptomatic treatment and other measures to reduce its incidence and death rate. 1. Adhere to the principle of self-support from the prosperity, defense only bought hidden infections. 2. Pig farm management attention , to minimize stress factors : ¢Ù should do to prevent sunstroke and lower temperature for the summer for the increase sty ventilation and the use of cold water spray cooling measures to promote convection Progressive evaporation and heat; all doors and windows should sty Ministry and allow air convection. warm pig or higher installed a cold shower spray Fog device spraying 4–6 times a day; ¢Ú summer rearing density should be reduced, 0.8 square meters of living due pigs space, 12,000 square meters for the best bred homes / head , the number of pigs in each column and best left in the first 10–12 the right to maintain a reasonable density and reducing farmers Swine fever of unknown temperature can be controlled effectively and respiratory disease. ¢Û maternity protection, to Breeding #20840; used here strictly to keep the whole side out here #30340; style, avoiding too much age difference between the pig only mixed groups to raise and transfer to reduce Pig Mixed groups and the number of columns, where do the same Pig Pig and all the transfer, After each slaughter pig sty is strict — Washing disinfection vacant for several days and then transferred to the new The Pig. 3. Pig and the environment needs to be regularly disinfected and reduce the content of pathogenic microorganisms. Because HIV is not for ordinary disinfectants sensitive, especially PCV-a it ineffective as disinfectants, disinfection when choosing new, smaller irritation disinfectants, such as compound aldehydes disinfectant solution. During the 10-day period should be increased in incidence of disinfectant solution concentration by the concentration of 1:250,000, and the epidemic in the affected area 4–6 times daily near the external environment strict disinfection and medium-sized pig sows noon Pigs can bring (together even pigs) spray disinfectant. 1st disinfected daily life management area farms. 10 days, double the increase can be diluted into Bank disinfection, reducing respiratory health through pig The probability of HIV infection, such as influenza, to prevent the disease from spreading to epidemic control the spread of the disease will have better results. 4. Drug control measures : The disease is on prevention, big Pig scale incidence, treatment is generally not ideal. should not occur before the disease Adding antibiotic feed or drinking water Prevention should be a high incidence of swine fever of unknown increase drug prevention summit ago, when the epidemic , in light of anti-bacterial and mycoplasma Bacteria drug therapy can reduce losses, and Early in the water and feed the same time take measures Dosing light for administering injections of diseased pigs treatment to reduce secondary bacterial infection ‘s death. At present, more sensitive clinical farms net support the original drugs, according to farms The combination of market conditions using the method , to introduce the field of preventive health care dollars medication zoned. Sow drug control from the start health the source of bacterial diseases. ¢Ù here #29482; unknown fever have occurred here #30340; Pig : Can be added to each ton of feed “stanozolol “sulfamonomethoxine 400 grams + 300 g / ton; from reduction in the prevalence of swine feed intake, adequate intake of therapeutic drugs can be Dosing in drinking water, the use of the penny bacteria and viruses, and antibiotics which are effective extract complex drug formulations, since the Pig by drinking 5–7 days. The incidence of pigs has been Isolation should keep meticulous care and make Astragalan and long-term use of sulfa injections injection treatment, one day on two occasions, used in conjunction with EI five days, in addition to drinking water into drugs therapeutic. If diseased pigs infected pigs Fevers and other viral diseases, treatment poor. and treatment of serious illness The poor results of diseased pigs and timely, fruit constantly out to prevent diseases to spread. ¢Ú formative period of growth : At 12–13 weeks of age and the use of the 17th-18th weeks effective preventive drugs may ton Effects of dietary fluoride Thiamphenicol + mycophenolate Firm 250-grams can add soluble in water antibiotics, the administration side pulse - was given one week, one week after the withdrawal, and then 1 week. ¢Û temperature of the hot weather or pig mass transfer column, vaccination, you should drink Add water resistant electrolyte multidimensional stress drugs, to reduce stress caused by pigs decline in the incidence of resistance groups opportunities. ¢Ü lactation : Sows before and after one week in the Sow; adding antibiotics, feeding ton care of the words “recreational” 400 grams of lomefloxacin ¡À 2.5% 1,000 grams of prevention; 80% of the original contingent of 125 grams or net / ton gold ±300 g / ton amoxicillin + 150 g / ton Tim Canada to reduce bacteria contamination from sows pm complaisant homes, cut off from the disease to sow piglets Horizontal transmission. ¢Ý weanling pigs : Weaned piglets from one week to four weeks ago The piglets; adding antibiotics, in every tons of food additive of “recreational” 400 grams + doxycycline 200 grams / ton; 80% support the original or a net of 125 grams / ton gold + mycophenolate - 300 g / t + amoxicillin 200 grams / ton, cut off Aberdeen Horizontal transmission of the disease among pigs and piglets. ¢Þ regular insecticide : Roundworm, whipworm and other internal parasites damage to the immune system so that the resistance of swine declined, the larvae migrate, and pulmonary Filariasis will increase respiratory lung disease disease, with insecticide to control drug The disease is a certain significance in continuously Two weeks into conservation homes piglets milk, choose the results of internal and external parasites Flooding Pest agent insecticide. #29482; Here : An article on the prevention and control of high fever here #30340; Comprehensive measures The following article : Pigs are suffering from anemia Related articles : No article Netizen : (only shows the latest 10. comment on the contents represent users view and has nothing to judge! ) Member e Gallant Pig total issued at all 2006–9−5 19:51:00 Comments : Rating : 3 hours Breeders requested increase, I understand Indonesia QQ611615260




---------------------------------------------------------------------
and another translation of that article:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
How guards against controls the pig high fever? [ Author: Chen Jianxiong the extension pastes from: The mechanization raises the pig association to click on the number: 570 renewals time: 2006–9−4 ] “the pig does not have the famous high fever” is the pig high fever synthesis drafts, is one kind of disease incidence rate and a mortality rate higher disease, mainly occurs is nurturing Cheng Qizhu and the partial sows, the sickness pig clinical main performance for ÌåÎÂÉý¸ß, the spirit sinks strongly fragrant, has a poor appetite or waste certainly, has difficulty in breathing, gasps for breath, the partial pigs partner has the skin to send ºì±ä and so on the symptom purple, the minority pore has the hemorrhage spot. The cause of disease mainly for many kinds of viral and the bacterium, parasite’s mix infection and continues sends the infection, Including the pig acute communicable disease virus (HCV), the pig reproduction and the breath synthesis draft the virus (PRRSV), the pig flu virus (SIV), the false rabies virus (ADV), the pig ring virus 2 (PCV-II) and the pig peripneumonia puts the line bacillus (APP), the pig streptococcus 2 (SS-II), the vice- pig ÊÈѪ bacillus gets sick (HP), the killing Pakistan bacillus (PM), the pig Ö§Ô­Ìå pneumonia (MH), the bow physique, attaches the red blood cell body, the pig cholera monk fungus much (SC) and so on the bacterium mix infection. Starts from 2,006 at the end of May, certain local many pigs fields, the growth nurture Cheng Zhu and the partial sows, the care pig explode the pig not to have a high fever, the majority arise the pig field trouble pig disease incidence rate above 50%, the mortality rate reaches as high as 50 ~ 90%, the field and raised the pig household for the pig to create the serious economic loss, some pigs field therefore went bankrupt. Because this sickness cause of disease complex, for the multi- causes of disease mix infection, on clinical is generally more difficult to control, the treatment result is not often ideal, creates the pig ȺÉú³¤to be slow or to stagnate, the sick and disabled pig and the death pig only increases, the feed efficiency, the growth speed as well as the pig group overall uniformity reduces, the treatment cost increases, causes to raise the pig production to suffer the serious loss. Arises characteristic 1. Occurs in a temperature higher season, the course of an illness long, about 5 ~ 20 days, the case fatality rate is generally high. 2. The pig field to guards against the work not to take, the technical personnel health care idea is bad, not the strict seal pig field, has not carried on the system to the pig group the health care pig field to arise seriously. 3. Arises pig’s body weight in 20 ~ 80kg, the disease incidence rate is generally highest, also has is weaned the after young pig to arise. 4. Medicine treatment result not too ideal, abuses the medicine the pig field mortality rate to be higher. The clinical symptom arises the pig ÌåÎÂÉý¸ß to 40 ~ 42.5 ¡æ, the spirit sinks strongly fragrant, picks the food quantity to drop or the appetite waste certainly, contracts the pig skin to blush, after ear ear bodily many place skins spottiness and so on edge cyanosis, hypogastric and four limbs end massive, assumes the purple red; Has difficulty in breathing, happy bends down lies, the partial pigs appear the serious abdomen type breath, the asthma are rapid, some performance gasp for breath or assume the irregular breath; The partial troubles pig flows the nasal mucus, sneezes, the cough, the eye secretion increases, the majority of pigs have the tear spot, has the conjunctivitis symptom; The partial pigs group constipation, the excrement Ãؽá, assumes spherically, urinates Huang Ershao, is muddy, the color deepens. Course of an illness slightly long sickness pig whole body pale, appears the anemia phenomenon, by Mao Culuan, after the partial sickness pig the extremity is been incapable front, the individual sickness pig is on the verge of death cannot stand, the final whole body twitches dies. Arises the pig group mortality rate to be very high, some pig fields even reach as high as 50 ~ 90%. The partial sows are being pregnant the later period (100 ~ 110 days) to appear the miscarriage, produces the still birth, weak young and mummy. Splits all examines the change to die of illness the pig to appear the varying degree the pneumonia, splits examines obviously below the symptom: 1. The lung swelling, changes hardly; Assumes rubber shape lung which cannot contract, the nature pneumonia symptom is obvious, the lungs present the motley shape to the brown pathological change (marble type); The majority all mixes the infection pneumonia, has the suppuration stove, the partial pigs hemorrhaging from the lung, the hemorrhage pneumonia, the nature obviously increases the width. 2. The lymph node widespread is tumescent, specially inguen lymph node and lung hilus lymph node. 3. Some die of illness the pig liver swelling, face discoloration pale, some livers assume yellow ashen, the nature is crisp, the individual pig kidney, the urinary bladder, the throat, ÐĹÚ×´¹µ in the fat and the heart ÍâĤ and so on has the hemorrhage spot; The part dies of illness the pig kidney tumescently, face discoloration deep, assumes brown or the earth yellow, the quality of material is crisper, has ðöѪ the phenomenon. Some sickness pig spleens tumescent, the nature is crisp. 4. The sending size textile fiber natural disposition pleurisy and the peritonitis, the chest cavity and the abdominal cavity have the fibrin seeping out. Individual pig lung ½¬Ä¤ and pleural membrane or pericardium textile fiber natural disposition adhesion. Guards against the system measure this sickness cause of disease to be complex, after sickness pig is not generally better, prevents and controls should persist prevents primarily, through strengthens the raising management, does well prevents heatstroke the work, the health care prevention, strengthens the disinfection work ahead of time, measure and so on just right for the illness treatment, reduces its disease incidence rate and the mortality rate. 1. Persisted from numerous is self-supportive the principle, prevented buys into the silent infection pig. 2. The value pig group raising supervisory work, reduces each kind to be supposed as far as possible to stir up the factor: (1) summer should complete prevents heatstroke the work, enlarges the hog house ͨ·çÁ¿ and with temperature decrease measure and so on cold water atomization, evaporates through the convection promotion with the radiation; The hog house windows and doors should completely open, let the air convection. The temperature compares Gao Shi or installs the atomizing device with the cold water flushing pig body, every day sprays 4 ~ 6; (2) summer should reduce the raising density, the growth pig should have 0.8 square meter above the life space, nurtures Cheng Shezui to be good is 1.2 square meters/heads, each fence pig’s quantity should better about 10 ~ 12, maintain the reasonable raising density and the temperature decrease may effectively control the pig not to have the famous high fever and respiratory tract sickness. (3) from the childbirth, the care, to nurtures strictly uses “all enters entire” the raising way, avoids only mixing the date age difference too big pig group raising, reduces the pig group extension fence as far as possible and mixes the group the number of times, achieves the identical hog house at the same time the pig group all to exit, leaves the pen the hog house after each batch of pigs to have to pass through the strict flushing disinfection, after vacant several days change over to the new pig group again. 3. The hog house and the environment need the regular disinfection, reduces the pathogenic microorganism the content. Because the virus is insensitive to the ordinary disinfectant, specially the pig ring virus, the common disinfectant does not play to it the role, when the disinfection should new choose, an irritant smaller disinfectant, if the compound aldehyde class disappears the venom, in 10 days planted agents which arises enhance the disinfectant fluid the density, according to 1:250 density, the external environment carries on 4 ~ 6 strict disinfection every day to nearby the epidemic disease area and the epidemic disease area, the sow and the major and medium pig noon when may bring the pig (continually pig together) to atomize the disinfection, the pig field life administrative district disinfects every day 1 time. The 10th day start, may enlarge a time of dilution to carry on the disinfection, reduces the healthy pig to infect virus’s the and so on flu through the respiratory tract probability, prevented this sickness proliferation spread, to controls the epidemic disease the dissemination to be able to get up a better effect. 4. Medicine control measure: Should be seriously ill in prevents, when the pig group large-scale arises, the treatment result is not generally ideal. Before should has not occurred at the epidemic disease in the feed or the potable water increases the antibiotic to carry on the prevention, should not have the famous high fever in the pig to arise the peak ahead of time to add the medicine prevention, when the epidemic disease occurs, and Ö§Ô­Ìå carries on the antibiotics treatment in view of the bacterium to be possible to reduce loses, should early take the measure while the potable water and the feed Ͷҩ, the union injection carries on the treatment to sickness pig, reduces the death which the bacterium two infections causes. At present the pig field clinical more sensitive medicine has originally only to wait, the pig field may act according to ±¾³¡ the situation to use jointly with the medicine means, the formulation ±¾³¡ prevention health care plans with the medicine. Starts from the sow with the medicine health care to control the bacterium epidemic disease the source. (1) pair has had “the pig does not have the famous high fever” the pig group: May increase “in each ton feed to add Kang the” 400 grams + »Ç°· between armor oxygen pyrimidine 300 grams/tons; Because is sick the pig group to pick the food feed to reduce, cannot absorb the enough treatment quantity the medicine, should simultaneously in the potable water China and Canada medicine, use to the bacterium and the viral effective antibiotic and the Chinese native medicine withdraws the thing compound preparation, lets the pig group freedom drink with 5 ~ 7 days. To the pig which arises should only isolate raising, carefully nurses, and uses the yellow ÜÎ polysaccharide and the persistent effect »Ç°·Àà injection carries on the injection treatment, 1 day 2, including use 3 ~ 5 days, simultaneously increases the medicine in the potable water to carry on the treatment. If sickness pig mix infection pig acute communicable disease and so on virulent disease, then the treatment result is not good. To condition specially serious and treatment result not good sickness pig, should be prompt, the decisive elimination, prevented the epidemic disease disseminates. (2) growth nurtures Cheng Qi: Carry on the prevention in 12 ~ 13 weeks ages and 17 ~ 18 weeks ages uses effective drugs, may increase the fluorine Thiamphenicol + force mildew element 250 grams in each ton feed, also may increase the soluble antibiotic in the potable water, uses the pulse for the medicine way, including uses 1 week, after stops the medicine 1 week, then uses the medicine 1 week. (3) when burning hot high temperature weather or pig group extension fence, injection vaccine, should increase the multi-dimensional electrolyte in the potable water and so on anti- to be supposed to stir up the medicine, reduces as far as possible in accordance to violently causes the opportunity which the pig group resistivity drops arises. (4) nursing sow: May each 1 week-long sow foresee accurately the increase antibiotic around the sow childbirth, in each ton feed increases “to add Kang the” 400 grams + 2 5% Lome sands star 1,000 grams to carry on the prevention; Or with 80% originally have net reduction 125 gram/ton + ½ðùËØ 300 gram/ton + Arab League not Xilin 150 grams/ton increase, the sow to discharge the germ pollution childbirth shed, shuts off the disease from the sow to the young pig’s level dissemination. (5) is weaned the young pig: The young pig is weaned first 1 ÖÜÖÁ to be weaned the latter 4 week-long young pig to foresee accurately the increase antibiotic, increases “in each ton feed to add Kang the” 400 grams + force mildew element 200 grams/tons; Or with 80% originally only 125 gram/ton + ½ðùËØ 300 gram/ton + Arab League not Xilin 200 grams/tons, shuts off the young pig and between the young pig the disease level dissemination. (6) regularly drives the insect: In vivo parasite harm organism immunity system and so on roundworm, whip insect causes the pig group resistivity to drop, the roundworm young insect ÒÆÐÐ and the lung silk insect can aggravate illness after the lung which the respiratory tract gets sick, therefore the coordinate medicine drives the insect to control this sickness development to have the certain significance, should after be weaned the young pig to change over to the care shed 2 weeks, chooses the parasite effect obvious drives the insect medicinal preparation to in vivo outside to carry on drives the insect. Previous article: Guards against controls “the pig high fever” comprehensive measure Next article: The young pig also contracts the anemia Thread: Thread ÍøÓÑ commentary: (Only demonstrates newest 10. The commentary content only represents ÍøÓÑ the viewpoint, has nothing to do with with the home station standpoint!) The member “Yi Haozhu always” to 2006–9−5 19:51:00 makes the commentary: Grades: 3 minute raise the pig public figure please to add my QQ611615260 understanding quotation

Tom DVM – at 00:33

Nightowl Were you the person who was so persistant in the spring about the role that bats must be playing as a tertiary host of H5N1?

I know someone was…I just can’t remember who it was.

Nightow – at 00:59

TomDVM - No, it wasn’t me, but I just did a search, and I may have found the person you are looking for - NJ. Preppie at 12:11, 26 May.

Here

Nightowl – at 01:04

I need to change my comment at 00:09 now to the TomDVM/Monotreme/NJ. Preppie thesis. (hidden mammalian reservoir)

Tom DVM – at 01:11

Thanks Nightowl. You’re a gem!!

Slight correction…it was NJ Preppie at 12:11 on the 30th of May.

Nightowl – at 01:18

You’re welcome, TomDVM. :-)

NS1 – at 01:23

Occam’s Razor cuts away the dross again.

Kind of funny to think of pigs and bats as the purest solution, isn’t it?

Proximity equals Opportunity

WHO’s next?

Hopscotch isn’t just a kid’s game anymore.

Reverend Reggie – at 01:32

TomDVM,Monotreme—Thank you so much for all your input. I have lurked on this forum for 1 1/2 years. My wife and I are both Texas Pharmacists(hospital and retail). You two have really opened our eyes. Again, thanks.

I have been getting prepared for quite a while. When the customers started speaking French on my aisles after Katrina, it became real to me. Been preaching to my co-workers about being prepared a while.

NS1 – at 01:40

Rev. Reggie,

Welcome to posting!

Say hello on the Lone Star State 2 thread.

Reverend Reggie – at 01:43

Thanks NS1, Appreciate it.

Nightowl – at 01:46

Dude at 00:07 - Well said!

Reverend Reggie at 01:32 - Welcome to posting on Flu Wiki!

Reverend Reggie – at 01:54

Thanks Dude. Just letting people I am out here every night. Has been very interesting watching what time of day people post. There are daytime posters and nighttime posters every single day. Amazing what I have learned. Pigs and other mammals being infected scares me to death. Lost two retrievers last year. Spooky. Had that conjunctivitis that has been mentioned. Fine one morning, dead that afternoon. Lethargic and uncontrollable walking and such. Anyway, have learned a great deal being here every night than not.

NS1 – at 02:11

Anyone have a stat on the expected Pig CFR for H5N1?

How does it compare to 40%.

Would someone like to take a look at normal Porcine death rates from seasonal Influenza?

Then Seasonal Influenza CFR for humans v. H5N1 CFR Humans.

Find the human multiplier from seasonal to H5N1:

H5N1_IncreaseHuman = H5N1_CFRHuman / Seasonal_Influenza_ CFRHuman.

Solve to see if the 40% death rate they are having in China is about the same as muliplying the H5N1_IncreaseHuman against the normal pig rate.

Expected_H5N1_CFRPig = H5N1_IncreaseHuman * Seasonal_Influenza_ CFRPig

Is the result close to 40%?

May not be linear . . . may tell us nothing.

Interesting speculation. Plug your numbers if my equations are right?

anonymous – at 02:46

people, look at the facts. This is unlikely influenza. Experts apparantly have looked at it. What do you think would have happened if they had considered H5N1 only remotely possible ? The guy from Asiatimes apparantly is no expert. He is talking about H5N1 in general.

flumonitor – at 02:56

In a sense, does it matter if this is H5N1 or another virus? Aren’t the risks for pig to human transmission of most viruses especially high?

anonymous – at 03:00

Tom, didn’t you say with a knife and some days alone with these pigs you would get a diagnosis ? Now, they did quite some analysis, see above. What’s wrong with it ? Are they just lying ? Could the truth be hidden with 2.5 million (…and growing ?) infected pigs who can be throat-swabbed etc. ? I mean, can’t you just put some sample into a letter and send it to a HongKong or Taiwan or Japanese lab. ? Aren’t there lots of tourists and scientists and journalists in China ? I think, H5N1 can’t be hidden, once it’s in millions of swine.

anonymous – at 03:01

flumonitor, no. Some/most viruses are very unlikely to jump from pigs to humans. Flu is not one of those.

Eduk8or – at 06:41

So if

why are we not seeing human H5N1 deaths in China? Are they there, just being covered up and/or not reported despite the Chinese statement from earlier last week about rural areas reporting epidmics? Are the farmers more careful in handling the carcasses after death? Then what about the other 1,500,000 that were infected, but still alive? I’m assuming they are continued to be fattened for eating?

Or is it not as transmissible from pigs to humans— yet.

FrenchieGirlat 07:12

Eduk8or – at 06:41 - why are we not seeing human H5N1 deaths in China?

May be there are… If not, why create the two-hour notification rule?

anonymous – at 07:13

my answer is easy: it’s not H5N1.
Now let’s wait how Monotreme, TomDVM are answering this…
However, the Chinese are obviously conscerned that humans could become sick.

Tom DVM – at 09:12

anonymous et al.

There are a couple of things here.

“Now, they did quite some analysis, see above.” Anon-3:00

“The secondary mixed infections and parasitic infections , including swine fever virus (HCV), and porcine reproductive and shout absorption syndrome virus (PRRSV), swine influenza virus (SIV), pseudorabies virus (ADV), porcine circovirus disease drug type 2 (PCV-II) Actinobacillus actinomycetemcomitans and Actinobacillus pleuropneumoniae (APP), an Streptococcus suis type 2 (SS-II), Deputy Haemophilus Paratuberculosis (HP), Pasteurella multocida (PM), Pig mycoplasma pneumonia (MH), toxoplasmosis, attached red cell, Salmonella cholerae - suis (SC), etc. Bacteria infection” Anon-00:15

Anonymous. This is not a diagnosis…this is a list of the top ten causes of deaths in Asian pigs.

The question of what is killing these pigs is vital given that this is occuring I believe precisely at ‘ground zero’ of H5N1

…this is a multi-billion dollar industry…someone knows exactly what the bug is that is causing this problem…it is for us to speculate why we and the rest of the world (given the obvious sensitivities here) have not been told.

I am actually not as interested in this issue as the overall issue of the last nine years and the probability that H5N1 has been cycling in the massive pig populations in China and other parts of Asia….

this is an essential question because the presence of the infection in pigs opens up a multitude of new pathways for H5N1 to follow in its adaptions to mammals and us…which I do believe now was the endgame of the virus all along. The point is that pigs are a mixing vessel and that in itself provides opportunity. Pigs represent the only connecting road between two freeways both running in the same direction…one in birds beside and parallel to the one for mammals.

and I believe we now have an answer to this particular question. H1Ni and H5N1 are ‘kissing cousins’ according to the experts. H1N1 infection represented the first time that influenza caused major problems in pig populations…it was uniquely capable or penetrating and maintaining itself there for now a hundred years…

…on that basis we can assume that H5N1 has been circulating in pigs for nine years…and again someone knows this fact because the pig industry alone is a billion dollar plus industry in China. You have to again ask yourself why we haven’t been told?

The bad news in my opinion, is that this has been happening subclinically (without clinical signs)…which means while the virus is adapting, it is not killing its host…magnifies opportunity.

We might ask ourselves why hasn’t it become pandemic if it has had all this opportunity? My answer would be that nature doesn’t work on our timetables but on its own…H5N1 is taking probably exactly the same time that H1N1 did in the time period before 1918. We just don’t exactly know what that time frame was.

This 2.5 million pigs are important to me…but not exactly for the reasons one might think.

1) if this is H5N1, the time frame for the pandemic becomes accelerated due to the increased opportunity for now extremely rapid evolution.

2) a virus that previous was asymptomatic in pigs is now symptomatic and is maintaining a high CFR in another mammal species…if this pattern is present then in the end we will have a pandemic with a attack rates and CFR higher than the pandemic of 1918…and we now know that 1890 was worse than 1918 providing the precedent.

Thanks.

ColdClimatePrepperat 09:40

Tom, or someone, can you explain more about the rumors of a “weaponized H5N1?” Somewhere along the way I missed this discussion. Is there a thought this is an intentionally created virus?, or an unintentially modified virus, modified by human activity in some way. You hint at it with your comment about vaccines in China.

Thanks

Tom DVM – at 09:50

ColdClimatePrepper. Sorry, I may have mislead here and will have to come up with a name other than weaponized.

You would have to be a total boob to improve an influenza virus because for each member of the enemy you shoot, you shoot one of your own…unless you had effective vaccine and they didn’t…except there are no effective influenza vaccines.

What I mean by weaponized is any process that improves the infectivity, virulence or transmissibilty of H5N1.

This could be a vaccine that is supposed to be killed but is alive…injected into poultry flocks.

It could be allowing poultry to run around in large pig farms etc.

Or it could be the virus finding a new host to replicate in…

…it just means any step natural or manmade that improves the effectiveness of the pathogen.

I believe the misuse of vaccines or the misuse of virus samples or the experimentation in hosts other than poultry has caused this outbreak in exactly the same way as keeping live civet cats in proximity to people etc. caused SARS.

Hope that helps.

raina – at 11:52

Tom DVM, if you believe that H5N1 has been circulating subclinically in pigs for a while, to what do you owe the sudden change from asymptomatic to symptomatic? The “vaccine gone wrong” theory is interesting, but a bit too speculative for my tastes, so I’m wondering if influenza does things like that naturally?

And what do you think about human cases? Occuring and covered up, or not occuring? It seems impossible for me that there could be influenza in this many pigs without some human cases and I’m not really willing to believe it is influenza until we hear of some. It seems that if Hong Kong was hearing rumors about the pig deaths, they could also be hearing rumors about human deaths as well.

Klatu – at 12:21

(earlier this year)

Swine Recombinants Destroy Influenza Genetics Basic Tenets

Recombinomics Commentary

March 23, 2006

The recent Canadian swine H1N1 and H1N2 sequences have many examples of recombination as indicated earlier. However, a more detailed analysis of these sequences identifies a series of recombinations that effectively destroys the two basic tenets of influenza genetics which define genetic drift and shift.  Genetic drift is said to be due to random mutations introduced by a “sloppy” polymerase which poor replicates the eight gene segments of influenza.  Genetic shift is said to be due to whole genes being swapped when a host is infected with two distinct flu strains.  Although transcription errors do become fixed in circulation viruses and the viral genes do reassort during dual infections, the gene changes that are seen on an annual basis are largely due to recombination.  The recombination can produce small changes such as single nucleotide changes (creating drift) or can swap large portions of individual genes (creating shift).

As noted earlier, the same 1977 isolate from Tennessee contributes large portions of the PA genes found in six of the seven isolates.  The remaining avian genes have additional examples of easily identifiable recombination.

The swine sequences evolved slowly, preserving the identity of sequences acquired earlier via recombination.  These large acquisitions can also be found in more rapidly evolving avian sequences, although the multiple sets of recombination reduces the size of the acquisitions.  Moreover, in many instances the region that was expected to contain newly acquired sequences was missing from the sequence database.  Full sequences of these isolates includeing H5N1 bird flu, would produce additional examples of recombination.

There also appear to be more instances of acquisitions of smaller regions which frequently have a high degree of identity, so the acquired new sequence may be limited to a single nucleotide change.  The recombinant nature of these smaller differences can be traced to the same parent contributing new genetic information to multiple locations with a gene segment or acquisitions of new genetic information in multiple segments. 

These two types of recombination account for the vast majority of the year to year changes in related influenza genes.”

(excerpt)

http://tinyurl.com/l47sb

Tom DVM – at 13:31

Hi raina.

if you believe that H5N1 has been circulating subclinically in pigs for a while, to what do you owe the sudden change from asymptomatic to symptomatic?

The sudden change from asmptomatic to asymptomatic would be due to selective evolution increasing virulence and therefore CFR on probably one farm that then took off also to other farms (increased transmissibility as well?)…

…If you search Nipah virus, I think the article was in discovery in Aug, you will see that this is exactly how they think Nipah became (can’t say weaponized) ‘virulently activated’…without the gigantic factory farms (size passed tipping point for mutation storms)…it wouldn’t have happened.

It is my opinion, that one virus replicates so many millions or billions of times in each host infected, that the probability of repeated mutations to produce pandemic-ready viruses is 100%…

…so the larger the template and especially a large template with the overcrowding conditions and unnatural animal contact of a factory farm, the greater chance that the individual mutation will take off when it happens.

The “vaccine gone wrong” theory is interesting, but a bit too speculative for my tastes, so I’m wondering if influenza does things like that naturally?

Yes all of this can occur naturally…but our animal husbandry practices in China have greatly accelerated speed and opportunity.

And what do you think about human cases? Occuring and covered up, or not occuring?

I don’t know if you get the same feeling I do…but it seems that there are so many bugs over there killing people that they would never be able to tell one from the rest. This came as a complete surprise to me.

I believe that there are probably 5–10 infections for every reported infection and it has been this way since 2003…

…and yes, I believe if these pigs have H5N1, there will also be deaths…not covered up, just not recognized…

…and really it doesn’t matter if you buy the assumption that H5N1 has been circulating in pigs asymptomatically for 9 years. In that case, whether these pigs have H5N1 or not, the largest pig populations in the world (mutation ready template specifically to adapt to mammals) are at the exact center of the H5N1 outbreak in China…the end result is entirely predictable.

The fact that it was asymptomatic and is now symptomatic would indicate a major step closer to humans in a parallel mammallian species while increasing virulence and CFR.

Tom DVM – at 13:55

In my opinion, with the wide geographical range and wide host range, we have a ready supply of pandemic ready viruses being repeatedly produced…

…what is missing is the link…all the stars aligning to allow a take-off point…in essence, the equivalent of the sick doctor getting on the elevator after being infected with SARS…except in the case of H5N1, they would be infectious before they are actually showing symptoms.

…All we need is for someone to be infected by one of these viruses who is about to leave on an extended business trip etc. to North America or Europe with a number of hours in a major hub waiting for a plane transfer.

Thinlina – at 14:18

Want to buy some pigflu pork from the market place?

http://tinyurl.com/ertmb

anonymous – at 14:27

Hello TomDVM at fluwikie. gsgs posted your post here so I commented on it. I think we are in agreement about most ideas here. Only disagreement was a joke : “pig meat might become more expensive”. Like: since we do not know what it is yet, thats what we can assume safely.

As you said IF “this is H5N1 …. it indicates (might indicate, I am not completely sure about it, its a step towards us) “that H5N1 is fully adapted to a mammalian species once removed from us with a CFR of 40%” “agree on second thought that that is extremely important to us on two accounts 1) timing of the next pandemic and 2) potential virulence of the pandemic virus”

Yes, thats about my opinion as well, expressed differently, but about the same outlook. I do agree completely that it then, if, would make a difference in the timing. I am not as convinced as you are about the consequences in virulence.

I have serious doubts about that: “and it should be remembered that there is influenza in pigs only because they caught it from humans in 1918 or in the stages leading up to 1918″ We are only at the beginning of exploring the stages leading up to 1918. For now, i believe there has allways been influenza in pigs. Is there any study about it that I missed? Greetings [highflyer]

The Sarge – at 14:53

My head is going to explode from trying to read the babelfish translations. Can we clone anon_22? (reaches for the duct tape…)

It seems to me only logical to assume H5N1 in the porcine population, absent firm evidence to the contrary. Known vulnerability to alpha 2,3 receptor binding, and as NS1 said, proximity = opportunity.

The trouble is that this is all occurring behind the bamboo curtain, and our view of it is being obscured.

anonymous – at 14:56

Mingus at flutrackers:


PCV2 ( porcine circovirus ) is almost undestroyable by disifectant as stated in those [Chinese] articles, replicate unnoticed for years and is immunosupressant. His associated syndromes are almost always provoqued by secondary pathogens. In North america the PMWS syndrome is the mostly spread and is a high CFR around 20% but there is some of the associated pathogen listed in that article that are not present in north america.

Like I said before, in the lab where i work, a triple positive set like PRRSV+ SIV+ MH+ is not rare in thoses swine with high PCV2 viral load…

For an example, the PDNS syndrome is almost only seen in europe where differents pathogen sets are presents. There can be a special mix of pathogens there in china that explain why the PCV2 associated syndrome are more deadly.

The PCV2 virus behave very much like AIDS in human at the exception that it is secreted in all the body’s fluid and is transmitted by all ways. This pan-epizooty is a huge problem and I think is the natural consequence of industrial breading.

I hope this is not a new pathogen, because the spread of it could be the last fatal hits on the swine industry wich is already on the edge.

But, because PCV2 is immunosupressive, I do not exclude it can be associated with some form of avian flu… My only problem with the H5N1 explication, is that is should have been easy to the chinese to identify it and I do not beleive it could have spread for years without causing a huge flow of human cases since swine addapted virus are much more close to human adaptation that avian one.

My very personnal hypothesis goes for a new PCV2 associated syndrome but it do not exclude a whole new and yet unidentified swine virus.

p.s. I base this interpretation solely on my personnal experience on a vet-diagnosis-lab here in North-America. Our main samples flow are from the swine industry.

PCV2 viral load rise is tought to be caused by the immune response to a secondary pathogen. Here in Canada, the H3N2 epidemic haved been followed by a severe wave of PMWS problems… now… no study haved proven the causal link of that sequencial history.

PCV2 in itself have no epizootic potential ever recorded for human. It is a DNA virus very very small, with only two gene ( but I must check for this last …) in a circular coil protect by a hard protein and not envelopped.

It is hardly destoyed even by heat and we (in our lab) ever found it in animal-made-floor. Theses animal floor haved been banned for most of cattle animal because of the MadCow disease problem but are permitted for swine because this species is not known to be sensible to this kind of disease. But who know what is the main infection path because they are found in lungs, serum, feces, urine, nose, and everywhere.

I’m not sure but I think the meat can and is sended to the market…80% of north american swine are PCV2 positive, it’s like AIDS in some african country. It may depend on the secondary infection… Strep suis have some epizootic potential.

anonymous – at 15:01

oops, delete the [Chinese] above. Mingud had posted some other articles about PCV2 at flutrackers some days ago.

Tom DVM – at 15:10

gs Thanks for referencing Mingus at flu trackers for us…I’m glad someone spells worse than I do…but I must admit that English is Mingus second language while it is my third language. /:0)

What I wanted to ask you is how come you go by your name at flutrackers but won’t on flu wiki…doesn’t make any sense to me…and there are a lot of anonymnous comments I wouldn’t want to be in any way associated with…just wondering?

Sarge…I like the ‘bamboo curtain’ thing…nice!!

highflyer. Thanks for commenting…jump on over to flu wiki anytime and ‘chew the fat’ with us…we could use all the help we can get.

anonymous – at 15:18

PMWS=Porcine multi-systemic wasting syndrome
PDNS=porcine dermatitis and nephropathy syndrome
swine fever virus (HCV)
porcine reproductive and shout absorption syndrome virus (PRRSV)
swine influenza virus (SIV)
pseudorabies virus (ADV)
porcine circovirus disease drug type 2 (PCV-II)
Actinobacillus actinomycetemcomitans and Actinobacillus pleuropneumoniae (APP)
Streptococcus suis type 2 (SS-II)
Deputy Haemophilus Paratuberculosis (HP)
Pasteurella multocida (PM)
Pig mycoplasma pneumonia (MH)
toxoplasmosis, attached red cell, Salmonella cholerae - suis (SC)

Tom DVM – at 15:24

gs I have another question for you. If it was circovirus which occurs around the world…why didn’t they just diagnose it and tell us?…they had absolutely nothing to lose by doing so because this virus is already widespread around the world.

The equivalent would be for the Chinese to decide not to report the incidence or appearance of the common cold virus…still doesn’t make any sense to me…there is a lot more going on here then circovirus.

anonymous – at 15:28

Tom, we had this discussion about anonymity several times already. You know about the history of gs-threads, do you think this all would work with gs posting as gs ? The FCOs etc. would jump in and distract the discussion. At least 3 of the Mods are anti-gs.

Tom DVM – at 15:32

I think it would work a lot better “with gs posting as gs”…I don’t think any moderators are anti-gs…I never saw it.

What are the FCOs?

and by the way, thanks for the interesting comments from flu trackers…we are all stronger if we work together.

anonymous – at 15:34

Let me answer for gs. Read the paper above, they did mention circovirus. They are just not sure whether it’s the causing agent because there are frequent double-infections. And it’s different from American or European Circovirus. And when they are not sure, why should they speak about it ? Sounds probably more alarming to Chinese people than “pig-high-fever”. And more foreign. Just my interpretation.

Mosaic – at 15:46

GS, you also use gsgs at curevents. There seems to be even greater anti-anonymous sentiment building here than there is anti-GS. Reading some of these threads can be very confusing. If the goal is to communicate with others, please help us do so. You dont appreciate the problem yourself because most of us do use consistent names that you can see, and you are one of the ones who doesnt. You know which posts are yours, and which ‘anonymous’ posts you havent written. We dont have that luxury.

Hopefully if Fluwiki ever moves to a better forum structure, this constant aggrevation from the various anonymous posters will reach an end.

anon_22 – at 17:05

At least 3 of the Mods are anti-gs.

There seems to be even greater anti-anonymous sentiment building here than there is anti-GS.

Move along, folks. Nothing’s happening here.

Back to pigs.

Ruth – at 18:25

Could this just be a misprint? Check out the last line of the story.

http://www.monitor.co.ug/news/news09135.php A DARK shadow has been cast over attempts to chart a peaceful end to the conflict in northern Uganda after medical authorities confirmed an outbreak of the deadly bird flu virus in the South Sudan capital Juba, which is the setting for the peace talks.

The disease, which made global headlines in December 2003 after killing thousands of birds in China, is a potentially lethal virus that can mutate into a format that attacks and kills humans.

Up to 60 people were reportedly killed by the virus in China.

NS1 – at 18:28

The Sarge at 14:53-

The trouble is that this is all occurring behind the bamboo curtain, and our view of it is being obscured.

And as we all know, closely planted bamboo makes an excellent windbreak and a much more formidable barrier than concrete and steel walls.

But you can’t plant bamboo closely enough to prevent a virus from squeezing through it, can you?

ColdClimatePrepperat 20:03

Thanks Tom at 9:50 (sorry for the late reply… been sleeping, then at work!)

You clear up a bunch of stuff, but am I remembering wrong that there are some rumors of this virus possibly being some sort of escaped thing from a lab somewhere? People have been tossing around terms like you did (“weapon”) and “escaped from a lab” here and there and I keep wondering where this is coming from, beside peoples’ imagination.

Were there not similar rumors about the AIDS virus?

I’m sorry to be such an idiot. I just want to dispell this rumor now if indeed there is no basis for it. It sure seems to me nature can explain all we see with this virus. We don’t need humans involved.

If you get enough people on the planet, crammed together with enough pigs, chickens, bats, cats etc., it seems like a recipe for density dependent limiting factors to me. Humans are spreading over the planet like bacteria on a petri dish. Something has to stop us.

anon_22 – at 20:05

Ruth,

I don’t think a Ugandan news agency is likely to get the scoop on China.

Ruth – at 20:14

So it’s a misprint, or bad jounalism. I was getting worried.

anon_22 – at 20:15

Ruth, I don’t know for sure. I’m just guessing. :-)

Tom DVM – at 20:23

ColdClimatePrepper. Really well said…in fact, so well said I stole it and put it in the quotes thread. Thanks.

I’m not sure if it is right…but the approach I take is that it doesn’t matter…H5N1 is out there…we are in big trouble and the hole is getting deeper by the day…and you are right…nature when it decides to work against you is the ‘real terrorist’. The rest are just pretenders.

To put this in perspective from the nature terrorist point of view, we are contemplating a short, sharp disease outbreak that could potentially kill more people in eighteen months…then all the wars of the twentieth century and throw in all the deaths from HIV/Aids to boot…and I wouldn’t be surprised if we could throw in quite a few other calamities as well.

It is pretty hard to match that amount of distruction.

Now, hopefully, it won’t come to that.

As far as the pigs go…we don’t know if it is H5N1…but the fact is that I have been shocked to discover in the past week, thanks to our ‘facts resource sleuths’ and there is no better, that the actual numbers of pigs in the exact spot where all the genetic diversity in the virus has developed…

…and then add the fact that eighty percent of these pigs are in barnyard small herds which indicates that not only would those pigs contact birds but also contact faeces and definitely eat dead chickens…

…no bloody wonder this is disease central in the world…no bloody wonder that this country provides most of the mutated diseases with increased virulence or new exotic diseases like SARS.

Funny thing is that India is in close proximity, with the same number of people, and I have not heard of one exotic disease that has come out of India.

Alone, those facts about the pig farms at ground zero pretty well tip the balance from remote to probable in my mind…if you ignore all the other factors pushing us, unwilling towards the next pandemic.

anon_22 – at 20:38

Tom,

Funny thing is that India is in close proximity, with the same number of people, and I have not heard of one exotic disease that has come out of India.

I have been thinking along similar lines, well, not about India, but if pandemic flu viruses tend to arise in southern China, what is unique about that place?

If we say, pigs, farming practices, well, these are the same in ALL of China, and in most places in Asia and other developing countries.

If we stop getting one-tracked-minded about the pig as the host, and if we still think some sort of mammalian host is the final step just before pandemic flu viruses get to humans, then it would be possible to think in ecological or geographical terms. Because certain species are indigenous in certain places. What if there is a specis of mammals that have a very restricted living habitat, ie southern China only and nowhere else, which is mainly responsible for at least the pandemics of the last 100 years.

Because of globalization and the vastly increased transport of humans, goods, and trade (see chart here), a species that is still localized to a unique region would probably be something exotic and rare, and does not survive well in other habitats. (Because if it does, it would have been traded!)

Do you know how one might search for that kind of thing? I don’t even know the term, for a species that has very specific living requirements. Can you enlighten me please?

Medical Maven – at 21:27

anon_22 at 20:38: Maybe the cure is a little more of what ails us. The Chinese just need to finish paving, polluting, and industrializing the countryside in that area and push that unknown “exotic and rare” species into extinction. Voila, another problem solved. (Tongue-in-cheek, of course).

Tom DVM – at 21:41

“If we stop getting one-tracked-minded about the pig as the host”…

…annon22…I’m mortally wounded by your statement. /:0)

Let me put it this way…watch the interface between man and nature and other mammals…

You have to believe that bats are involved because they have been involved in every exotic disease that I know of in the past ten years.

Secondly, we have those small shoreline mammals that would eat migratory waterfowl and live in close proximity to waterfowl faeces.

I don’t know if this is a local saying but ‘you are barking up the wrong tree’ if you think there is some exotic animal that is in China and not India that is causing all these problems…

…actually there is one animal…it is called the Chinese Government.

They are the ones who have pushed wild expansionist policies…that maybe works for lawn chairs or running shoes…but when it comes to domesticated animals…each action has an equal and opposite reaction…and it is that reaction you weren’t thinking about that gets you…as a practising veterinarian, I have seen the disastrous effects of one seemingly minor change in animal husbandry.

Look at Nipah virus…the discovery article indicated or implied that the only reason it developed because the size of pig farms passed an unknown threshold and allowed a large enough template to allow the eventual mutation.

There is one reason and one reason only why these things happen in China…a distinct lack of knowledge about the ins and outs of animals in nature…a lack of respect for the effects of nature on animals…and terrible animal health and husbandry techniques from an animal health perspective…

…They seem to me to make every mistake that can be made.

They also seem to have an overall problem of repeating the same mistake over and over and over and I think they have made some big ones with vaccine.

Ottawa Guy – at 21:43

The Walmart prophylaxis. Who would have thought!

Tom DVM – at 21:45

and don’t forget while they were mishandling vaccines, they also spent several years putting antivirals in chicken feed.

anon_22 – at 21:55

Tom, I asked you a scientifc professional question, not a political one.

Let me try again. What is the term for a mammal or animal that has only very restricted living habitats. I just want to know enough to do some research. Thanks!

Tom DVM – at 22:00

What is the term for a mammal or animal that has only very restricted living habitats.

anon 22. I don’t know of a term for this but Monotreme or Medical Maven or Racter might.

OKbirdwatcherat 22:28

…very restricted living habitats. Hmmmm…lab rats????

DennisCat 22:31

restricted habitats in China- panda bears.

Cygnet – at 22:34

anon-22 — I think the word you might be looking for is a “specialist” species.

De jure – at 22:44

Anon-22: If it lives in China in a very restricted living habitat, you might also try looking under the term “endangered” (panda bear, perhaps?) ;-)

Leo7 – at 23:07

Folks, estimates for China’s population is around 4 Billion. It’s four billion with the Draconian measure of one child except for rural or the minorities. It’s hard to feed that many I’m sure, which is why the livestock population has soared. What was mentioned in a Sixty minute interview with Leslie Stahl months ago was there were grossly more males than females and that millions of Chinese men will never find wives. China is also buying businessess in other countries and moving their countryman there. I think this is to ease the overcrowding too. I posted a story on the news thread about that too. My whole point is they’re faced with one of two things—farm as they’re doing now so they can feed the population or expansion to spread them out. I don’t think we can expect to see any changes in the farming or upkeep of livestock. Quit wasting your time (unless you like doing it)looking for novel mixing mammals, it’s a hub because of overcrowding, pollution and bad water. Consider the sewer systems for so many in such a small area. So we’re going to have to get used to viruses spilling out of there. http://tinyurl.com/rjk7x

anon_22 – at 23:08

I think I’m looking for a zoologist now. :-)

I’m now searching zoonosis, etc. Gotta switch to reading Osterhaus. <groan> Did you know that he was veterinary scientists and now he is a professor of virolgy in medical school? The guy is like a walking encyclopedia, both human and veterinary virology, immunology, vaccines, etc. Seriously fun, and scarily clever.

anon_22 – at 23:11

Leo7,

It’s 1.3 billion, not 4 billion.

Okieman – at 23:16

anon_22

Was the word “sentinel species” what you were looking for?

Okieman – at 23:37

Did a little bit of looking around, and I think the word you are looking for is “biome-restricted species”

anon_22 – at 23:48

Okieman, that might be it “biome-restricted”. I’ll try that. Thank you, good man.

13 September 2006

enza – at 03:01

anon-22: Try ‘biome specific’. It is an actual term in a textbook I taught from for a decade. It may be what you are looking for. If not, try ‘indicator species’, it’s not the same thing but may lead to your answer.

Swann – at 04:17

Hi all! Is there a possibility that the Three Gorges Dam in the southern part of China (construction began in 1993, I believe) has triggered biological misfires, or something? My reading on the subject indicates environmental consequences would be severe and that Chinese authorities were ignoring warnings while planning to deal with problems after they occur.

NS1 – at 06:13

Swann,

Quite possible . . . All dam projects trigger biological misfires.

Please go a little farther with your idea and drop in some particular species or habitats that you found striking.

Recall that Momotreme, TomDVM and I are watching the shore animals.

If a dam changes life for any species, it’s certainly the shore dwellers.

Klatu – at 09:20

Chinese Organic Pork Product

2006–09–08

China Daily

“Beijing Hormel Foods Company Ltd, a joint venture between Minnesota-based Hormel Foods Corporation and Beijing Sanyuan Group Co Ltd, has teamed up with Liaoning Zhenxing Group Ecology Development Co Ltd to promote its new product: Hormel Organic Fresh Pork. Liaoning Zhenxing will supply pigs to Beijing Hormel, which will be responsible for processing and retailing the meat.”

http://tinyurl.com/hqxjt

TreasureIslandGalat 09:46

“organic” usually means that it wasn’t fed anything funky…just natural foods and scraps. most organic food comes from smaller farmers vs. large industrialized farms that are usually forced to use antivirals and antibiotics on a large scale to prevent massive disease outbreaks amongst the animals. So what this says, is that Hormel will be delivered a lot of “local pigs from the small farmers” to use as meat product.

Hmmm… aren’t these the pigs getting sick??? What a deal for Hormel! They jsut hit the jackpot of finding super cheap meat!

Ready for the REAL scare??!!!

Hormel makes anything with the Hormel name, as well as “DintyMoore”, as well as …yup…believe it or not… Guess what is the most popular meat product throughout many asian countries??? Guess what product many westerners are stocking their pantries up with in the event of a pandemic??!! S - P - A - M !!!!!

Guess what is the most popular meat product throughout many asian countries??? Guess what product many westerners are stocking their pantries up with in the event of a pandemic??!!

Tom DVM – at 09:59

TreasureIslandGal. If you would allow me…the above composition is a beautiful piece of writing…I envy your control of the english language Thanks.

Klatu – at 11:10

TreasureIslandGal – at 09:46 wrote: Hmmm… aren’t these the pigs getting sick (in China) ???


I don’t think the U.S. consumers need to worry about consuming Chinese pigs. I would be more concerned with plans to ship frozen U.S. poultry for “processing” to China, which will then be shipped pack to the U.S. marketplace for consumption.

U.S. to allow processed poultry shipments from China

AP Food And Farm Writer | April 20, 2006

WASHINGTON —Poultry processed in China will be allowed to enter the United States despite outbreaks of deadly bird flu in China, the Bush administration said Thursday. Critics said the imported poultry will put public health at risk. The Agriculture Department said the meat would be fully cooked and perfectly safe.

“It will have been processed,” said Richard Raymond, the department’s undersecretary for food safety. “Cooking will kill the virus, if there is any virus, in poultry meat.”

The U.S. does not accept live poultry from countries where the virulent flu strain is present. That policy has not changed. The poultry would be raised and slaughtered in the U.S. or other countries from which the U.S. accepts poultry. It would be fully cooked and packaged or canned in China. Imports will be allowed beginning May 24.

Critics say the U.S. cannot guarantee that Chinese processing facilities will keep Chinese poultry from mixing with U.S. poultry.

“It’s not clear to me the two will be effectively kept separate,” said Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin, the top Democrat on the Senate Agriculture Committee.

Rep. Rosa DeLauro, D-Conn., said the imports are dangerous.

It is an outrage that the U.S. is going to open our borders to imports of poultry from China — a country that lacks the fundamental safety functions in its processing plants, has questionable export practices, and a country where a deadly animal disease and possible pandemic is running rampant,” said DeLauro, top Democrat on the House Appropriations Committee’s agriculture subcommittee.

http://tinyurl.com/fvdh6

Life is getting cheaper.

worrywart – at 11:34

I don’t know what the criteria in China is to have the label “organic”, but in the US, an organic farm has to feed it’s animals organic feed and they are not allowed to give any antibiotics, or even worm medicine etc to meet the organic label. If an animal is wormed or given any treatment , it cannot be sold as organic for 12 months afterwards.-the reports from CHina indicate that the pigs are given plenty of drugs for varies conditions, so none of them would meet the US standard for an organic label.

TreasureIslandGalat 12:07

Klatu - both of these stories are highly “concerning” (to use Niman’s favorite adjective, haha)

If we get H5N1 in birds in the Americas, what foods will Americans and Canadians start eating more of? Probably fresh pork and beef. Fresh pork will have H5N1 too shortly after American free range or back yard poultry gets it. Looks like beef will be the only alternative. -and there isn’t much of that that can be stored for long periods of time that isn’t made by Hormel. Fish and sea food look like a good alternative, though I remember some stories a while back about H5N1 found in oysters/shellfish. (rumor?)

But, anyone prepping for H2H H5N1 will really be in a jam at that point in deciding what proteins to add to their stocks. What will be safe anymore? Fresh poultry will be scary…frozen and processed poultry will be scary. Fresh and processed pork will be scary. Long term storable beef will be exhorbatantly expensive. (better to get protein stocks NOW) -With beef becoming the “in” meat, better hope that Mad Cow disease is kept in check! How are lamb prices doing these days? Maybe we all better get used to “mutton” again! I remember hearing about that all the time in history books as being a major source of protein for many cultures. hmmm… I like lamb. -but not many flocks around my part of the country though. haha Damn good thing I can fish at least!

beehiver – at 12:09

Even the USDA has loosened requirements on what is allowed into organic products…this is currently a huge controversy within the organic farming community. Not wanting to divert this thread, let’s just say that if my family does not trust the USDA organic label, we certainly do not trust a Chinese product labelled organic. We are now doing more and more local buying, it’s nice to know your local farmer/grower.

A year or two ago, honey imports from China into the U.S. were currently banned because of a serious antibiotic showing up in the honey. They are not exactly sure how it got into the honey, but it may have been from bees drinking the water in fish-rearing ponds, which are treated with chemicals and drugs.

beehiver – at 12:14

Yikes, what is wrong with my brain this morning??, LOL. Thinking about too many things at once. That post should have read,

A year or two ago, honey imports from China into the U.S. were banned because of a serious antibiotic showing up in the honey.

Tom DVM – at 12:18

beehiver. Chloramphenicol…banned in the USA and Canada in the late 1980′s because of a direct link to aplastic anemia.

It seems that China has only one approach to additives…more is better!!…and there is no limit on the ‘more’ in that statemet.

FrenchieGirlat 12:23

Disjointed thinking… Not many pig farms where I live, but I’ve seen bats at night… one of the bats predators are owls (raptor birds). Raptors are susceptible to H5N1, yes? I seem to remember some were found infected. Raptors will eat other small mammals (mice for example)

Tom DVM – at 12:25

FrenchieGirl. Good points…another interface between birds and mammals…that is where the action is…that is where we should be concentrating some survelliance.

TreasureIslandGalat 12:32

FrenchieGirl

and mice were found infected along the shores of a lake that had a huge die-off of waterfowl in Russia or Siberia somewhere this last spring/early summer. My “old school” thinking just remembers it being somewhere in the Soviet Union, but the other side of the lake is in Chinese territory I believe. Maybe Mongolia.

FrenchieGirlat 12:34

Well, here in the Alps we do have a good share of small and big raptors. Is there a ornithologist/zoologist that could have a look a geographical maps of say Indonesia/China, etc. and find out if there is significant interaction raptors/bats, raptors/mice, at those places where H5N1 first started to appear? Or is this a knowledge area that is too little known to draw conclusions?

TreasureIslandGalat 12:48

I think “mustelidae” need to be looked at seriously as a possible mammal host as well. Weasels and all their cousins appear all over the globe. They are huge eaters of avians and eggs, whether wild prey or when notoriously predating on our kept poultry. They will also take advantage of carion as well as other small mammals. Some species frequent oceanic shorelines where they get access to eggs and chicks of sea birds (many of which migrate over long distances).

What makes these mammals dangerous as a host is that they, like pigs, have the dual-receptor pulmonary characteristics that enable them to harbor the “avian receptor form” of H5N1 and also permit the internal mutation of “human receptor form” virus.

These animals can then come in contact with farm animals, i.e. pigs, through their droppings. (H5N1 has been shown to be able to withstand digestive tracks.)

I doubt they are more of a mammalian resevoir than pigs, but they do offer another example of a wild type host and vector.

-they are just as much a stretch as “bats” would be, in fact less so, when you consider most bats are vegetarian and nocturnal, thus their contact with birds would be extremely limited as a family.

Dennis in Colorado – at 12:49

“Daily counts of migrating raptors were made on 43 days between 27 September and 9 November 2003 near the city of Chumphon in south-east Thailand. Overall, 170,665 migrating raptors of 15 species were counted during 378 hours of observation (452 birds/hour). The counts of five raptor species (Black Baza Avecida leuphotes, Oriental Honey-buzzard Pernis ptilorhyncus, Eastern Marsh Harrier Circus spilonotus, Chinese Sparrowhawk Accipiter soloensis, and Greyfaced Buzzard Bustatur indicus) represent some of the highest totals reported to date.”

Link to pdf file

beehiver – at 12:57

Tom DVM at 12:18 - Chloramphenicol, yup that’s the one, thanks! Didn’t have time to dig it out of the old bee journals. Evidently some people are very sensitive to that drug. I think the Chinese denied using it directly in the hives, but if that’s true, it came from somewhere in the environment. Due to the increasing stresses on bees these days, beekeeping requires very thoughtful care, similar to animal husbandry. It’s not good to have any trace antibiotics in honey whatsoever.

FrenchieGirlat 12:59

Dennis in Colorado — at 12:49 - Many thanks. From quoted link: ‘’Thailand is an important migration crossroads for east Asian raptors that over-winter in Malaysia, Singapore, Bali, Sumatra, and elsewhere in Indonesia.’‘ Perhaps at some point we might want to start (restart) a thread on this, rather than clogg this one? Any interest?

TreasureIslandGalat 13:02

FrenchieGirl,

Not meaning to offend, but I think that there wouldn’t be a significant interchange of virus between mice/bats and raptors or raptors to mice/bats. The virus would just not be able to sustain itself. Raptors are not a good resevoir either way. Think about this…

If a mouse meets up with the raptor…end of story for the mouse. If the raptor gives it to the mouse, it won’t go any further!

If the mouse/bat were infected, it may give the virus to the raptor, and very quickly, it will also be end of story for the raptor. Unlike flocking birds, raptors are very antisocial. Birds of prey usually have large territories that they patrol solo until they acquire a mate. At that point, the couple shares the territory and may raise chicks each season, but that is the limit to their interactions with other birds (unless they’re a meal!) Most raptor chicks do not survive their first year of life on their own once they leave their nest. Anyway, if a bird of prey caught high path H5N1, it would probably die quickly and its direct family would perish before any spread of the disease could be accomplished. That doesn’t make for a very hearty “host species”.

I think mice and bats could be a host species, but not raptors at all. They are a dead end for any virus as they are not efficient spreaders. In fact, there really isn’t any member of the top of their environmental food chain that can be considered an efficient host or spreader of disease to other species beyond themselves. (The only exception I can think of is aligators and crocs… they let those little birds pick at the tidbits in between their teeth. They could potentially spread some disease to the little flock birds that they had gotten from eating something else. Or if they didn’t get it themselves, it coudl be in those “tidbits”. haha

Dennis in Colorado – at 13:07

FrencieGirl: That article was the only significant one I found when I searched for [raptor population China] but I don’t doubt that there is more information out there. Let us search further and, if anyone finds more articles of significance, start a new thread for “Raptor Migration As A Vector for Infection.”

TreasureIslandGalat 13:09

AAAAAHHHHH, I didn’t consider buzzards, vultures, etc. in my initial thoughts of predatory birds. They are very social. It is entirely possible that one of these could eat a dead bird and then catch the virus and pass it on to another bird of the same species. I wonder how likely thought it is to have these species intermingling with other bird species though or in other close proximity to domesticated animals. I do see though how they could offer to be a potential wild host. I doubt their limited interactions with other species could burst forth large amounts of endemic disease though. -but it could be possible in the right conditions I suppose.

But hasn’t high path H5N1 been extremely deadly to raptors? maybe there is some tolerance that has developed in some species by now. -like how some waterfowl, and even some poultry are developing increased resistance to the virus.

Tom DVM – at 13:12

“I think the Chinese denied using it directly in the hives, but if that’s true, it came from somewhere in the environment.”

Chloramphenicol is manmade and labile…but I am not surprised that China played a ‘Sargent Shultz’ again…they are very good at it…they must have watched ‘Hogan’s Heroes’ in the 1960′s.

I have asked the question of Canadian regulators but why don’t you phone your local USDA office or you local FDA office and ask them…

…how much monitoring they do of honey exports from China and more importantly China and third countries shipping Chinese honey into the United States…and make sure you ask them for the sensitivities of the tests used…and whether the enforcable concentration of Chloramphenicol has changed over periods of time…and exactly how many tests are done per year in the United States…

…or may those regulators who are lurking on flu wiki would like to answer the question.

Tom DVM – at 13:15

beehiver. Actually when I was, in effect, talking to the Chinese Government and my countries regulators from several agencies…I had Sargent Shultz on both sides of the table. /:0)

Dennis in Colorado – at 13:16

TreasureIslandGal – at 13:02

You may well be correct that raptors cannot serve as an effecient vector for H5N1 … but they are monitored as a vector for West Nile Virus so I am not certain they can be ruled out as a vector.

Tom DVM – at 13:31

I think for me it is all about identifying the interface…after that one ‘mines’ the interface to see if transmission is occuring.

FrenchieGirl has identified a significant interface between birds and mammals and small mammals that have to be playing some role.

Any bird that consumes mammals is at this interface and should be explored…vultures if they are hungry enough would eat the just died…which means they could be infected as well.

You have done a great job of exposing the ‘mine face’. Now all we have to do is explore it.

TreasureIslandGalat 13:51

Dennis, I thought raptors were identified as being a sentinel vs. a vector. Mosquitoes are the vector. I certainly believe that all raptors, as well as any predatros coul dbe excellent sentinels. That woudl help narrow down what the possible vectors could be.

I am still not convinced that mosquitoes can’t carry H5N1. Maybe that was true in the beginning, but now that the disease can live in a more diverse group of digestive tracks as well as in blood, and can persevere at lower temperatures for a longer amount of time, I think this would be a valid vector to revisit. In fact, possibly fleas could be a vector too now. If dogs can get it, I bet fleas can pass it too now if the move about quickly between hosts.

OKbirdwatcherat 13:52

I read an article during the summer cautioning consumers to expect a lowering of standards in the organic food industry when Wal-Mart gets into the organic food business, which they already have. ‘Cause it’s all about how to make things cheaper and cheaper. I notice more organic products all the time at our WM. Can Hormel organic pork be far behind???

TVP anyone????

TreasureIslandGalat 13:53

Sorry for all my typos folks. I need to reread what I’ve written before I hit “post”. :(

14 September 2006

beehiver – at 01:43

We got to talking about this avian-mammal interface here this evening, and wondered about mammals like raccoons, possums, and foxes. But mostly raccoons. I am going to throw some info out for wikians to munch on.

I have no idea how many wild raccoons might actually exist in China. They are originally native to the Americas. First though, this is what they like to eat, from this webpage: “Berries, acorns, eggs, fish, reptiles, ducks, and muskrats are among the foods that make up a raccoon’s diet.”

And I can personally verify for the horror that can happen when a mama raccoon that is teaching her young to hunt, finds your chicken coop…even if it is fenced in…and they are very intelligent, they will climb trees and steal eggs and wild young birds out of nests.

But, the next piece of potentially important information is that certain wild animals are farmed in China for their furs, and you probably don’t have to think for long what the farm conditions are like (as in crowded, for starters). From this page - “Tommy Hilfiger, Ralph Lauren, DKNY, and Sean John manufacture fur or fur-trimmed garments in China, whose fur industry has just eclipsed all other countries combined to become the world’s largest supplier of fur to the United States. Millions of foxes, raccoons, minks, rabbits—and, yes, dogs and cats—are killed in China”.

This National Geographic page has a picture of caged raccoons at the Guangzhou market, being sold for food, with the caption: “Many wild and exotic animals are sold as food in China, such as these racoons in stacked cages at the Qingping Market in Guangzhou. Some scientists warn that such conditions are ideal for a virus to jump from animals to humans, which likely happened in the case of SARS.”

Knowing how intelligent raccoons are, and that they are being farmed in China, is it possible some escape and become naturalized in the wild? What might be their contact with ducks, chickens, or pigs? If a raccoon ingests or inhales influenza virus, does it get sick or does it transmit with no visible infection? These questions could apply to the other farmed wild animals, to greater or lesser degree.

Finally, this page has an intersting raccoon-pig connection: “The most common method in which raccoons acquire pseudorabies virus infection is via the ingestion of virus-infected pig carcasses.”

Do opposums live in China? They also feed on carrion.

Food for thought.

beehiver – at 01:48

Tom DVM at 13:12 etc. Now you have me intrigued about the matter chloramphenicol in the Chinese honey. I don’t want to hijack this thread too much though. I will try to dig up some info during the next week and see what I can find, give me some time okay.

anonymous – at 01:56

http://vetline.de/suche/index.htm?d_id_=254206
Our study confirmed that type II CCVs infection is very common in domestic dog, fox, and raccoon dog populations in China. This is also the first report on the co-existence of two CCV genotypes in healthy foxes and raccoon dogs.
Autor: Y. Wang, G. Ma, C. Lu, H. Wen
Quelle: Berl. Münch. Tierärztl. Wschr. 119: Ausgabe 1–2, Seite 35–39 (2006)

ssol – at 08:42

anon_22 – at 21:55

I found that when I looked for ‘restricted habitat’ on wikipedia the majority of hits listed shrews. There are dozens of different shrews that live withing ‘restricted habitat’.

Tom DVM – at 09:43

beehiver. That is an excellent piece of deductive and dectective work. Thanks and I really mean. This is one more piece of the puzzle. If one wants to know why China is the worlds biggest exporter of ‘improved’ viruses, they only need to look at the information and circumstancial evidence flu wiki is accumulating and analyzing.

The reason is cultural and agricultural…and is too ingrained to change.

The Chinese Government does not understand the concept of ‘tipping point’ when it comes to the size of what seems to be an endless variety of farms growing up a variety of wild animals…

…and you are right about the key element…escapes from these farms back into the wild…becoming the interface between domestic and wild animal pathogens.

NJ. Preppie – at 09:45

Not to say that pigs will not be the next pandemic reservoir, but the 1918 pandemic did not come through pigs but adapted to humans through some means. If H1N1 was in pigs before us the evidence would be found, but it’s not there. There is a time gap of mutation between the avian H1N1 and the Human H1N1 which could be in a range of decades, like 30,40,50,? yrs. We still need to solve that mystery. The reason bats are a good disease vector is because they live in dense colonies, which is similiar to why waterfowl are good for viral sustainability. Bats are like the birds of the night. Humans also share that high density and mobility trait for spreading the pathogens around to new hosts.

So when looking for a mammal reservoir, solitary or territorial type mammals are more the victims of localized diseases. Grazing mammals form herds, but many other mammals, except for mating, avoid interacting with each other. Bats not only hang out in popular spots together, but they engage in a lot of social grooming. Different bat species could specialize in different diseases. The horseshoe bat has a lot of SARS virus, the flying foxes are responsible for the Nipah virus. Some other bat species. in Africa has older Ebola viruses.

The fact that a human H3N2 was found in a bat, shows it’s not impossible. An interesting question is just how did a bat get a human flu virus, as it wasn’t a vampire. Maybe bat specimens from before 1918 should be looked at for H1N1, since they haven’t found the transitional virus yet. Also, if a lab could test a living bat with H5N1 as they have with ferrets, mice, birds, cats; to see if a bat could get the infection and survive. Then we have a smoking gun carrier. Right now, only dead wildlife is getting tested, and the hardy carrier could be sneaking by.

We know many ducks and waterfowl are hardy, but they don’t explain the mammalian adaptations that are occuring. Pigs could be the next vector and need to be better studied too, but we’ve received too many warnings from bats to continue to be this slow on the uptake.

Tom DVM – at 09:45

India obviously is more traditional in its animal husbandry techniques and that is why pathogens are constantly percolating in and out of China and not India.

beehiver – at 12:19

Tom, you’re very welcome. This matter of animal interface and density is a fascinating epidemiological question, and it would be interesting to see more information about the actual farming practices. Here are a few comments taken from an abstract in a water quality journal. The viruses he is talking about are SARS coronavirus and H5N1.

“Suspicious areas are in South East Asia, where living conditions of birds, mammals and human beings are so close that there are always risks of viral infection. When we see the living conditions of farmers in southern China, northern Vietnam, Laos and northern Myanmar, they commonly raise ducks/chickens with pigs sharing ponds into which they discharge household wastewater, including human excreta, and pig excreta that are significant carriers of viruses. Bird faeces are also key carriers of the viruses. In the ponds, they raise ducks and conduct fish culture. Other important players are migrating birds from North Asia, which are principal vectors of avian influenza viruses. There is an urgent necessity of improving human and ecological health in South East Asia to control viral infection among birds, mammals and human beings. We can hinder the vicious cycle of virus infection through water contamination in ponds by providing good human, pig and chicken sanitation. It is easy to provide good sanitation practices for human, pigs and chickens, introducing collection and treatment of excreta.”

Changing such farming practices would take a dedicated effort, with the support of not only China but the companies and countries that feed off the various products coming from such farms. As Tom mentioned, “Sargent Schultz on both sides of the table”.

Wet markets have probably been discussed elsewhere on this wiki. Webster published an article in Lancet about the dangers of the wet markets as regards pathogens. The summary of this article is here, and includes: “Live-animal markets (wet markets) provide a source of vertebrate and invertebrate animals for customers in tropical and subtropical regions of the world. Wet markets sell live poultry, fish, reptiles, and mammals of every kind. Live-poultry markets (mostly chicken, pigeon, quail, ducks, geese, and a wide range of exotic wild-caught and farm-raised fowl) are usually separated from markets selling fish or red-meat animals, but the stalls can be near each other with no physical separation.”

Tom DVM – at 12:40

beehiver. Then Chinese and others blamed the disease in wild birds for the breakout in migratory birds at Q. lake (can never spell that damn lake…this is easier…sorry) last summer.

Later someone unrelated to the Government leaked that there was a research farm in the direct close vicinity to Q. lake that was attempting to domesticate a certain species of migratory duck and these ducks had been released into wild populations at the lake a short time before H5N1 showed up…

and that’s the point…the interface is small unless mankind disregards and disrespects nature and begins to artificially increase the template through actions like this…H5N1 at Q. lake was not the birds fault…it was the Chinese Governments fault and the pseudo-scientists who allowed this to happen and continue…with total disregard for the consequences.

How many pseudo-scientists in China are or have been working on vaccine technology?

I know how good you are at finding these references…if you come across anything about those migratory waterfowl, they tried to domesticate and then released, would you post it as well Thanks.

FrenchieGirlat 15:57

beehiver – at 12:19 - They call it “integrated farming”, and it’s advocated by FAO. A search for that term yields many results

NS1 – at 18:38

Friends,

If you have an interest in digging into the bases of H5N1 Cytokine Dysregulation, I sure could use more eyes on Cytokinic Dysregulation 4.

Especially needed are those who have tracked translocation signals and pathways in human cell biology for NF-kB. Anyone with lab time or desk time looking at gene expression would be a major contributor. Even if you only have a little time to read part of a paper or two each day, each one of you could contribute to understanding causality of the so-called Cytokine Storm.

Gather and Solve . . . please.

Monotreme – at 21:56

Closed and continue here.

Retrieved from http://www.fluwikie2.com/index.php?n=Forum.PigsInChinaTheHiddenMammalianReservoirForH5N1Part5
Page last modified on August 27, 2007, at 01:53 PM