Forum: Pigs in China the Hidden Mammalian Reservoir for H 5 N 1 Part 7

Continued from here

bird-dog – at 12:47

Elder Berry – at 12:03
With all due respect, did you not just read beehivers’ post at 11:18? The Chinese may say that they do not know what is causing the illness but I certainly don’t believe them. I’d really like to know what trustworthy person or group it is that you listening to?

Dennis in Colorado – at 12:56 40–45 years ago, there was a syndicated columnist named Sidney Harris who wrote a recurring column on “Antics with Semantics.” A typical example was: My child is “spirited;” yours is “hyperactive”; his is “a holy terror.”

I see this discussion in the same light: I am “concerned;” you are “worried;” he is “hysterical.”

It is just antics with semantics.

Elder Berry – at 13:18

bird-dog – at 12:47
Yes, I read beehiver’s post. It is indeed disturbing and points to very bad processing practices by Chinese companies.

Listen, I am not going to stand up and defend the Chinese, no way. I am also not going to say that the illness in the pigs is definitely not a precursor to a pandemic. Who knows? It very well could be. It also could be that the Chinese just don’t know. Tom DVM has talked on more than one occasion about their husbandry practices. I don’t think we should be that surprised that they are cranking out new and odd viruses that even they have trouble nailing down.

This could be something, this could be nothing. All I am saying is let’s wait and see, because short of parachuting into China and poking around for ourselves, that’s all we can do. And I for one never did like parachuting. : )

bump

What’s happening in Taiwan?

Thinlina – at 15:46 --- There was a coup d’eta 2 days ago. New gov’t.

Are you asking about the change in gov’t, or about BF?

Ah, BB? The coup was in Thailand. If there was a coup in Taiwan we’d have bigger problems than just a million sick pigs in China. : )

China is not stupid. They know what’s causing the illnesses, they’ve had 3 months to figure it out. They have also had ample time to rule out alot of illnesses. They could also ask for help if they wanted to. They won’t even talk about it.

Kinda reminds you of the whole SARS thing, doesn’t it?

If the Chinese are hiding what’s going on, this could end up being a classic case of trying to put lipstick on the pig. : )

Elder Berry – at 16:02 --- Taiwan. Thailand. Obviously the past couple of days have fried my poor brain. You’re right….I think I’m just gonna move across the country where I’ll be safe! My apologies, Thinlina….

Bronco Bill – at 16:31

Too much blitzin’, workin’, or rwfk? LOL. You do a terrific job here. Hope you’re feeling less fried real soon pardner. : )

ruth, they had years to figure it out. The disease reoccurs each year in summer. If there were something unusual WHO etc. should have already become interested.

So a million of pigs have died every summer for years? That’s not the way I understood it. I thought this was unique to this particular summer.

Never this many i didnt think either.There were statements it occurs every summer but i never heard it was millions every summer.

…and what of the pigs in Bali (think it is Bali) that have been diagnosed with birdflu (reported on news update thread)…?

  just checked - this (pigs in Bali) is entry by pugmom at 8:30 on news update for sept. 21 thread

yes, apparantly it’s particularly bad this summer. I haven’t seen an attempt to explain why. I mean, I can’t remember having seen it

Yep,that is bad news too.Never heard on the msm about the millions of pigs in china either.Are we to believe that the msm just hasnt seen it?I personally emailed them with the story 2 weeks ago.Just so i could say to myself they know about it.Still havent seen a thing about.

Elder Berry – at 16:37 --- My main brain is on my move to Virginia next week. Too much work and not enough RWFK! Trying to save that money to buy gas to get cross-country!!

I see a general problem that the msm don’t go on numbers. Probably because most readers won’t even distinguish millions from billions. 5 swine make a better story than millions, people want single-fates, so they can identify with the victims. The more victims the more anonymous they are. Maybe the farmer’s-journals have something ?

I just posted some “strange deaths in Nepal” over on the news thread. Notice it is “air borne. what is air borne and effects buffaloes, pigs and boars? Notice the area also has seen pig deaths earlier (Mar):

“The disease, first seen in Dangihat and Karanari village of Morang district, some 300 km east of Kathmandu, claimed the lives of over 1,000 pigs in Letang village alone, Shambhu Yadav, an official of the District Livestock Services Office (DLSO), said, adding that eight boars and four buffaloes also died of the disease. …

“The disease is believed to be air borne but we have not launched any investigation into it,” Yadav noted. Earlier, it was suspected that swine fever was the cause of the deaths but outbreak of avian flu in India has terrified the farmers of Morang district located close to India. “

http://tinyurl.com/egp5r

DennisC. I can’t say for sure…as I am not a specialist in Asian disease and swine…but I do know a few things about swine diseases.

There have been so many reports lately of mass swine deaths that we might be lead to believe that this is normal…or normal background scatter so to speak.

I don’t think it is either.

Thanks for the great work following this story…if we do nothing else for the next month, we must keep an eye on the pigs not only in Asia but also in Africa…

…I do believe that this time they may well be the prequel (indicator) to the pandemic and pandemic timing.

I just had an ideal…does anyone know if the dog cull was in the area where all these pigs have been dieing?

Hi Tom. I am a first time poster. I researched your question and came up with some info for you. Grace Rn posted on Aug 4, 2006, that a second cull of dogs was taking place in Jining, China, which is in the Province of Shandong. Shandong is directly north of Jiangsu and Anhui Provinces. These were two of the provinces listed on ProMed as having reported mass pig fatalities.

Hope that helps. I have been so greatful to all of the wonderful posters here on the wikie… Thanks, Kim

Kim. Thanks. Welcome to flu wiki…or I should say…welcome to posting at flu wiki.

Be careful, I made one post in Jan. or Feb. and am still here. /:0)

I hope you continue and thanks a lot for the information…would you have any way to tell how far apart these areas would be approximately. What I as trying to figure out was if the dog cull could in any way be related to the pig cull…because it seems dogs are very susceptible to H5N1…Thanks again.

EB,

I think you see in the posts above one of the important things the Wiki does: collect and analyze relevant data. Another important function of threads like this is to call attention to issues that may require further investigation. Although we may not be able to parachute into China to get the answers, there are news companies, and other organizations, that do have sources there. By describing the situation and pointing out why it is of concern we may be helping people with the proper assets in their investigations. I’m pretty sure this has worked in the past.

As far as people getting overly anxious, I don’t see any signs of this on this thread. You have repeadetly used this thread as an example of alarmism. I can’t not figure out why. This is one of most sober and least alarmist threads on the Wiki.

“This is one of most sober and least alarmist threads on the Wiki. “
“this is too strange for me to put into words”

Tom DVM. I can’t locate any online maps that will help me to determine distance from Jining (dog cull city) to the borders of provinces where the pig deaths occurred. The city of Jining is in the SW region of the the Shandong Province, which is adjacent to the Jiangsu and Anjui Provinces (where the pigs were croaking).

Here is an interesting tidbit. The city of Jining is located on China’s “Grand Canal”an (a very old waterway), which also runs through the Jiangsu Province. Hmmm, could this waterway be a point of distribution?

NWPrepper Thanks Kim!!

anonymous – at 20:09

Well, it was. Although I tried. Did that phrase cause you unnecessary anxiety?

not me, but maybe you ? The strange thing for me is that now you consider this thread most sober and least alarmist.

anonymous-Get a handle, and get a train of thought backed by bullet-points.

anonymous – at 21:07

Well, thanks for the concern, but my comment was a simple statement of fact.

I have never, ever heard of an attempted fake retraction of a scientific paper, until *someone* tried to block the publication of the case of Shih the soldier, infected with H5N1 in Beijing in 2003, in a paper published in 2006. I still say that’s really weird. You?

Hey, remember SARS? When the Chinese government invited western journalists to come to the hospitals to see that they had no SARS patients. Turns out that they did have SARS patients, lots of them. Right before the journalists came the patients were loaded into ambulances and driven around the city until jounalists left. Pardon me for saying this, but that kind of behaviour is both weird and irresponsible.

Kinda like staging a fake retraction of a scientific paper.

NWPrepper at 20:40… Google Earth has a Measure Tool that will draw lines and measure in miles. From Jining, China to Jiangsu Province is 32 miles at the shortest distance and 420 miles to the farthest end (262 miles to the capital of Nanjing.) From Jining, China to Anhui Province is 59 miles at the shortest distance and 432 miles to the farthest end (246 miles to the capital of Hefei.)

I’m sorry I don’t know if its possible to post the map I pulled up, but I hope this helps.

Michelle in OK at 22:14.

Thanks for the tip. That will come in very handy for researching, and hopefully connecting the dots!!

TomDVM, is there a place where we can get a handle on the average number of pig deaths in China in the last X number of years? Did I miss that figure. We could use a graph to see if we are all just blowing smoke or this really is an anomalous event.

http://tinyurl.com/jxkrl

This might be a start. Just a suggestion.

Monotreme,maybe weird for me too, but not so much as for you. “Weird” things do happen in China, you yourself were arguing about it in another thread. Your two additional points about the retraction of the sequences - remember your long discussion earlier with niman - and the soldier-sequence. You can’t use these to influence your pig-high-fever diagnosis. Why aren’t you and the DVM discussing the symptoms instead ? Is there anyone else who is concerned about the soldier and the retraction and the fever-pigs as you are ? WHO ? Osterholm ? Niman ? Any other expert ? What’s the Chinese motives with these 3 things ? Covering up H5N1 when million pigs are already infected and the disease exists since years ? It won’t work anyway.

Are you still saying that this thread is most sober,least alarming while simultaneously building up these concerns ?

I forgot to address SARS. Again no connection with the pigs. You are just arguing that China covers up. OK. Point taken. China can’t be trusted. But how do you conclude from that that the pigs have H5N1 ? They could have something else. The alternative explanations make sense to me.

Other countries are also covering up. Myanmar,North Korea are worse than China. Why don’t you concerned on this ? No data is bad data from there too ?

H5N1 escaping from a Chinese lab doesn’t make much sense to me either. Too much diversity, too much evolution of the virus in Southern China. And again, only you who assumes this. If there were more hints, we would have seen a paper or such.

anonymous You are certainly entitled to your opinion. I think you miss the point here. We are not trying to convince anyone of anything…this is a professional discourse amongst colleagues in my opinion…and I have had the exact same type of discussion many times in my life specifically in trying to control disease epidemics.

“H5N1 escaping from a Chinese lab doesn’t make much sense to me either. Too much diversity, too much evolution of the virus in Southern China. And again,…”…

…what bothers me a little bit about your tact in this is that 1) you won’t bother to get a handle so that we can have a discourse with you and 2) your statement above is obviously wrong…so obviously wrong that I think you have taken to ‘pot shots’ for the sake of ‘pot shots’…

…Maybe you had a name before, maybe you didn’t but nothing is being said here that is not occuring in the backrooms of every regulator, government and university at the moment…except in this case, the discussions are open to anyone who wants to listen or directly participate.

Hi Dude. That is a very good question…is this normal attrition in these large herds.

Well…let me put it this way. Background scatter does happen in all animal husbandry systems and occur in the USA and Canada daily. Certainly, thousands of pigs would die each year in China (or maybe even millions) do to a variety of reasons and a variety of infections.

We will never get reliable statistics from China on anything so we have to analyze this circumstancially.

My experience tells me that these deaths are not expected due to the way they are reported and I guess ProMed agrees as well, based on the comments found there.

China has never controlled any disease outbreak, for example Foot and Mouth disease is one of the most damaging and infectious diseases known to mankind…there are known procedures that can be used to remove it…yet China has had an ongoing epidemic for twenty years or so…they continually recede the world with more dangerous mutations of this virus as they have infected Vietnam this summer.

The clinical signs are also cause for concern because they do not rule out influenza…which is more important than ruling it in because we know that they are not going to tell us anything…and I say this with respect to only animal diseases as a veterinarian and not the many other things they hide.

This is a real problem. There has been several reports of asymptomatic H5N1 in pigs…which is the absolutely worse thing we could here at this point…

…the behavior of this disease in pigs is going to signal when the pandemic is about to begin and will indicate how serious it is going to be…I do not have a shadow of doubt that this last statement is true.

We are not over-reacting…many others will be having the exact same discussions in many geographical locations today…and this may also be the reason for the sudden pessimism by a number of the experts.

WE haven’t heard from Dr. Osterhaus yet…but I sure would like to know what he is thinking at the moment about onset time and severity.

Tom DVM: This is all so ridiculous, this secrecy, and our having to do our guessing games, reading the tea leaves, etc. You can not tell me that the higher echelons of more than several governments do not know exactly what that disease is that has killed a million pigs in China. China is not locked-up that tight, not yet.

So that ineluctable fact makes it worse. Those governments too are being silent. It smells to high heaven, worse than a pig sty on a warm spring day.

anonymous – at 02:13

I forgot to address SARS. Again no connection with the pigs. You are just arguing that China covers up. OK. Point taken. China can’t be trusted. But how do you conclude from that that the pigs have H5N1 ? They could have something else. The alternative explanations make sense to me.

I think you can apply the same suspicions to China.

May 27, 2005 (CIDRAP News) – Avian influenza could be infecting up to half of the pig population in some areas of Indonesia, but without causing symptoms, Nature magazine reported in this week’s edition.

Meanwhile, Chinese officials said a flu outbreak among wild birds is twice as large as previously reported, but they denied reports of human cases.

In Indonesia, Chairul Nidom, a virologist at Airlangga University’s tropical disease center in Surabaya, Java, was conducting independent research earlier this year. He tested the blood of 10 apparently healthy pigs housed near poultry farms in western Java where avian flu had broken out, Nature reported. Five of the pig samples contained the H5N1 virus.” excerpt

http://tinyurl.com/pcmj9

Medical Maven – at 09:27

You have to admit that there is a possibility that the Chinese do not know what is killing the pigs. As I mentioned yesterday, TOM DVM has often spoken about their horrible animal husbandry practices. It could be that they know not what they have created. This could be an entirely new virus.

Assuming that other governments outside of China knows what is killing Chinese pigs and are covering it up, is a really, really big stretch.

As for other governments knowing what

Medical Maven – at 09:27

You have to admit that there is a possibility that the Chinese do not know what is killing the pigs. As I mentioned yesterday, TOM DVM has often spoken about their horrible animal husbandry practices. It could be that they know not what they have created. This could be an entirely new virus.

Assuming that other governments outside of China knows what is killing Chinese pigs and are covering it up, is a really, really big stretch.

As for other governments knowing what

Medical Maven – at 09:27

You have to admit that there is a possibility that the Chinese do not know what is killing the pigs. As I mentioned yesterday, TOM DVM has often spoken about their horrible animal husbandry practices. It could be that they know not what they have created. This could be an entirely new virus.

Assuming that other governments outside of China knows what is killing Chinese pigs and are covering it up, is a really, really big stretch.

As for other governments knowing what

Medical Maven – at 09:27

You have to admit that there is a possibility that the Chinese do not know what is killing the pigs. As I mentioned yesterday, TOM DVM has often spoken about their horrible animal husbandry practices. It could be that they know not what they have created. This could be an entirely new virus.

Assuming that other governments outside of China knows what is killing Chinese pigs and are covering it up, is a really, really big stretch.

As for other governments knowing what

Medical Maven – at 09:27

You have to admit that there is a possibility that the Chinese do not know what is killing the pigs. As I mentioned yesterday, TOM DVM has often spoken about their horrible animal husbandry practices. It could be that they know not what they have created. This could be an entirely new virus.

Assuming that other governments outside of China knows what is killing Chinese pigs and are covering it up, is a really, really big stretch.

As for other governments knowing what

Medical Maven – at 09:27

You have to admit that there is a possibility that the Chinese do not know what is killing the pigs. As I mentioned yesterday, TOM DVM has often spoken about their horrible animal husbandry practices. It could be that they know not what they have created. This could be an entirely new virus.

Assuming that other governments outside of China knows what is killing Chinese pigs and are covering it up, is a really, really big stretch.

As for other governments knowing what

Medical Maven – at 09:27

You have to admit that there is a possibility that the Chinese do not know what is killing the pigs. As I mentioned yesterday, TOM DVM has often spoken about their horrible animal husbandry practices. It could be that they know not what they have created. This could be an entirely new virus.

Assuming that other governments outside of China knows what is killing Chinese pigs and are covering it up, is a really, really big stretch.

As for other governments knowing what

May 27, 2005 (CIDRAP News)

The Nature report said the H5N1 virus was found in pigs in China in 2001 and 2003, but two surveys last year, involving 8,457 pig samples, found no evidence of the virus. Hmmm…

http://tinyurl.com/pcmj9

Darn my cut and pasting skills. I apologize, but think you get my drift.

That’s the last time I post before coffee.

Maybe I’ll return to my “love” of parachuting! : )

Elder Berry at 9:37-Just as Chinese intelligence services have penetrated the West, the West has done likewise with China (though probably not as thoroughly). And some of those western intelligence services know if China “does not know”. China knows and THEY know if this is a novel virus or if this is H5N1. I repeat, the silence is deafening from all quarters.

The Alice in Wonderland aspects of this whole affair makes you question your sanity so you start doubting the current state of science (even in China) and what conclusions you should draw.

anonymouse and EB,

Let me clear, I do not know that the mystery disease killing millions of pigs in China is H5N1. It could be an entirely new virus. I would not find that reassuring, either. In either case, the Chinese government should have reported this to the OIE. My goal is to have this investigated by whomever has the resources available to do so. As Tom DVM has pointed out, if all these pigs are dying of H5N1, it would have serious implications for pandemic onset. So, it’s important to get this issue resolved, one way or another.

My reading of the translations is that although pigs die every year in the summer in China, the current outbreak is qualitatively and quantitatively different. The current outbreak is caused by a highly infectious, highly lethal disease.

This thread may alarm people, but the posts are not alarmist, IMO.

H5N1 Bird Flu in Montana Recombinomics Commentary September 21, 2006

“It remains unclear why only H5N1 has been reported in the United States. Release of the H5N1 sequences would be useful. H5N2 in Canada had acquire swine sequences inn addition to H5N1 sequences in internal genes. excerpt

http://tinyurl.com/afp73

“Assuming that other governments outside of China knows what is killing Chinese pigs and are covering it up, is a really, really big stretch.”

Elderberry. I agree with you. We are not saying that Governments outside China know what is going on inside China…

…WE are saying that our friend Dick Thompson at the World Health Organization know exactly what is going on inside China and are therefore complicit in a cover-up.

Klatu. Thanks once again for your formidable skills at uncovering circumstancial and direct evidence to assist immeasurably in the discussions…it is greatly appreciated. /:0)

Keep your nose to the ground…I think the pigs are key to the whole thing and the time frames…Thanks again.

Tom DVM: If you were the CIA or MI5 wouldn’t you be bugging and intercepting all of the internal and external communications of WHO. What could be more critical to national security than the possibility of a Cat 5 panflu?

I know that intelligence services closely follow these events and have personnel devoted to just the threat of panflu.

China has resources. If they have a problem of this magnitude, they will apply those resources. They know what is going on.

Torange

China is a lot like the Wizard of Oz…they have resources but they are based on illusion and fear. China has a history with the emergence of exotic animal diseases and it is abysmal…ask any veterinarian…anywhere in the world…and you will probablly get a similarly frank response. The cover-up of this disease is not new and whether or not it threatens the world would not affect their ethics regarding covering it up.

Medical Maven. You are right of course…but I have the knowledge of animals diseases and their history and have been watching them very closely in repect to food safety since Sept. of 1998…and they have me smoked!! at the moment…I am not sure how much more security agencies would know…but I’m sure you have noticed the again strange turn in experts and regulators opinions…I don’t hear any optimism and few naysayers anymore…if I was to go by my read of regulators who I have also been watching very closely in North America since Sept 1998…I would say they know the writing is on the wall and it’s not going to very long getting there…

…security agencies might know…but there is only one agency that is complicit…the World Health Organization.

Tom DVM: I don’t know why, but I am mad as Hell this morning about this information being closely held, all of it, not just this pig debacle in China. I am not a conspiracist, but I KNOW that we, the people of the world, are being left in the dark. And if more of that information were to be released, more people could be saved, those who can take in the truth and act upon it.

Medical Maven…Welcome to my world…I have been mad since Sept 1998. /:0)

It is just my opinion…but I honestly believe we have an unbeatable team here…I think we are ‘in front of the parade’…and I think they know it…and I think there are a lot of authorities reading what we are writing…and I think we will figure it out before anyone else does…

…and I wish I could face this adversary with authority and with the team on flu wiki…because I am very sure, based on my life and professional experience…that even at this late date…we could make a difference.

It is truly an honour for me to be associated with a group of such superior minds…and I really mean it!!

History in retrospect will demonstrate how accurate we were in the lead up to the pandemic.

Thanks to all of you.

two old (2005) articles re pig disease in China

http://tinyurl.com/r6chp (Canadian Broadcasting Corp) Disease experts are baffled by reports of a pig-borne bacteria outbreak that is being blamed for killing 37 Chinese farmers through internal bleeding.

Experts say an outbreak among humans is rare and not generally deadly. Some leading health and disease experts, such as Canada’s Marcelo Gottschalk, wonder if the suspect streptococcus suis bacteria has combined with other strains or a virus to amplify its effects.

“Something is different,” Gottschalk, who studies the bacterium at the Université de Montréal, told the Associated Press.

“We are worried and we are wondering what is happening.” ___________________________________

and this from UK publication ‘The Register’ http://tinyurl.com/dxvmw

But experts counter the denial, pointing out that transmission from pig to human is actually quite difficult, and that the high numbers of infected people suggest the disease is spreading from person to person.

“The organism is carried on the pig’s tonsils and is spread pig-to-pig through nose rubbing or coughing. But it’s only found in small concentration on the pigs’ tonsils, so it’s difficult for a human to catch it that way,” Jill Thompson from the UK’s Veterinary Investigation Centre in Edinburgh told New Scientist.

As a “news hound”, I am feeling very very frustrated with the lack of reporting in Indonesia. I know it’s out there.

Posted by Banshee in the News Thread. I thought there was a “News clampdown” now in China. Yet they choose to print this? And who are their “experts”? They make it sound like H5N1 is going to combine with the Seasonal flu. This article scares me!!

China prepares vaccines for possible flu outbreaks from China View (Xinhua) Chinese health officials are preparing 23 million to 25 million doses of flu vaccine, after experts warned the H5N1 bird flu could break out again with other flu strains during winter and spring. The vaccines would be available from mid September, when an inoculation campaign began, said a statement by the China Preventive Medicine Association. The quantity of doses is 20 percent more than last year… …Zeng said no major flu outbreaks had occurred in China in the past few years, but localised outbreaks happened constantly, including some in schools, in the first quarter of this year. Figures from the Ministry of Health showed a 13 percent rise in the flu incidence rate in the first quarter compared with the same period of last year… http://tinyurl.com/pxzvd Comment: Xinhua is the official news agency for China.

Elder Berry – at 09:36 You have to admit that there is a possibility that the Chinese do not know what is killing the pigs.

No, we don’t. The pork industry is one of China’s (if you’ll pardon the phrase) cash cows. Of course they know *exactly* what these pigs are dying from. How long do you think it would take the U.S. poultry industry to identify a bug that was killing domestic poultry by the millions? They’d be all over it like flies on sh*t.

A quick comment relating to past swine disease mortality in China. I do not have the time to do so right now, but if someone would research pork exports to China over the past three or so years you should be able to get a handle in a general sense of what is happening in China. I’m sure the data is out there for the US, but unsure of other countries and how much China imports pork from other countries. If there has been a spike in exports of pork to China, then well you probably can consider that what is happening in China is significantly different from past years. Anyway, this possibly could provide a bit more info.

Fight against animal epidemics remains pressing task: minister

People’s Daily Online

08:13, September 22, 2006

The prevention of and fight against animal epidemic diseases will continue to be a pressing task in the fall, China’s Minister of Agriculture Du Qinglin has warned. Du said local governments must maintain a high alert against possible epidemics such as bird flu, pig cholera and rabies.

In some countries and regions, the foot-and-mouth disease had been “rather serious”, Du said.

Within China, sick migratory birds, long-distance transport and the trade in live poultry and the outdoor rearing in remote mountain areas all posed challenges to disease prevention. Du said human and animal cases of rabies and tuberculosis had been rising in some regions, posing “a major threat” to public health security.

He urged local veterinary departments to provide timely vaccinations to poultry breeders, to monitor the results and tighten control of the production, distribution and storage of vaccines.” (excerpt)

http://tinyurl.com/qebv5

P.S.

“The Chinese government currently estimates up to one million Chinese citizens may be infected with the AIDS virus.  However, experts agree that these figures do not accurately reflect the actual number because China lacks the resources to carry out extensive surveillance in the countryside. Additionally, current surveillance protocols primarily cover only specific high risk groups. Because of these limitations, it is estimated that only five percent of HIV cases in China are reported. UN and World Heath experts believe the real figure lies between 1.5 and two million.. (excerpt)

http://www.casy.org/overview.htm

TomDVM at 9:03, why is it wrong, I didn’t see it…until accidently I found later that all H5N1 came from the guangdong 1996 sequence. I didn’t know that. Is it that what you meant ? Anyway, let’s concentrate on phf.
I can’t see what a handle would change.


Monotreme at 10:00, covering up H5N1 in identified pigs since years and millions this year is not so easy. They didn’t succeed with Qinghai. The symptoms don’t match flu well. No human cases reported. A thread that alarms people is alarmist - or alarming - however. Others know about the things and are not alarmed. Not only Dick Thompson.

anonymous — adopting a handle, just adding one or two numbers to ‘anonymous’ would change one thing — my very great annoyance at your attitude. You’ve been asked to make it easier for us to follow your thread of comments by doing so, as there are often many different anonymous postings. Not adopting a unique ‘name’ is casting you and your comments in a very unfavorable light. What are you hiding? the moderators can already access your source address code.

Now back to business: I ran a Lycos search on ‘pork exports to China’ and come up with some really interesting info. Both pork and beef have increased a great deal in 2004 and 2005, attributed to rising wealth and demand in China and the lower value of the US dollar. Here is a pdf file with charts and everything from the US Meat Exporters: http://tinyurl.com/pjjk4

Thanks heddiecalifornia - at 12:53. I see Mexico & China had a pretty big increase after 2003…….

Here are further references to US pork Exports: www.porkmag.com www.usmef.org meat exporters

U.S. exports of pork and pork products to China increased 22 percent in value terms and 16 percent in volume terms in 2005 versus 2004 at www.nppc.org national pork producers council.

No mention of pork production problems in China, attribute increasing demand to dollar drop, rising incomes in China, drop of trade barriers due to WTO membership of China, and establishment of trade delegations to China.

There is also additional increase in pork exports to Japan and South Korea.

I doubted (again) the dog rabies outbreak as soon as I heard of the sick pigs. Did we (the world community) ever get definitive proof that the dogs had rabies? Also, is it possible that a nation as scientifcally evolved as China could not know what organism the pigs are infected with?

Common Ground — The increase of pork shipments to Mexico was due to dropping of tariffs on the Mexican side in the NAFTA negotiations. Also did a little digging around and the Canadians have also been shipping a substantially greater amount of pork to China in the last couple of years. Even with the vast amount of pork China produces, they are increasing imports quite a bit.

Very interesting heddiecalifornia. Just the kind of detective work I love. Hmmm. Thanks for the info on Mexico. Can anyone out there give us a plausable reason why China would increase the import of Pork? Other than what we are all thinking?

heddiecalifornia,

Thank you for searching out all the info. That is just the kind of stuff that I figured was out there if one had the time to seek it out, and you did a wonderful job finding it. Interpreting the info as it relates to swine mortality in China is well…a bit more fuzzy type of endeavor. Sorting out the multitude of variables probably requires an expert in Chinese agriculture economics. Is there one in the house? ;-)

“China is a net meat importing country due to increasing demand and an increasing population, despite being the largest meat producing country in the world.

Low Individual Productivity and Low Turn Over Rate

In 2004, pig average carcass weight (CW) was 76.8 kg in China, which was lower than the world average (78.5 kg), US average (90.6 kg) and Brazil average (81 kg) Smaller CW in China is closely related to genetics. “ (excerpt)

http://tinyurl.com/kgera

Periscope at 00:35 provides the following link to a story in August of 2005:

http://english.sina.com/z/050726virus/index.shtml

The headline is about the mysterious swine disease and the story tells the story of a company that was producing 800,000 doses of vaccine against said mysterious disease. Umm, if they can produce a vaccine against the disease, how mysterious can it be?

Of course, this was likely overlooked because the posters in the Wiki were aware of this article? Any relevance to this article to this discussion?

Thanks Ottawa Guy and Periscope. This is a bacterin probably to control the Streptococcus suis outbreak in China.

Thanks Tom.

UHHHH, Did anyone actually read the WHOLE article of periscope at 00:35??? It says that 36 people have died of the pig epidemic in Sichuan.

Now that is news to me!

edit to the above: the articles are 2005. Long day.

Well, not quite on the subject of pigs, but I don’t know where else to ask about this:

To recap. For SARS it was found that the palmed civet cat was a carrier of coronavirus, then bats were surmised as the culprits. For bird flu, a number of mammals and avian fauna are susceptible. We keep asking for all sorts of animals to be tested so that we can find potential reservoirs.

So why would Chinese Taipei WTO Sanitary measures propose to adopt legislation on the importation of Meerkats (Suricata suricatta), variously described as belonging to either the Vivarridae or Herpestidae - which live in Southern Africa Meerkats for reason of “(1) Meerkats are allowed to import only from countries or zones recognized by the central competent authority of this country as free from highly pathogenic avian influenza” and yet do not state that the objective and rationale behind the proposal is to “protect humans from animal/plant pest or disease”?

Is there a possible confusion between the Viverridae family (civets, genets, linsangs) Family Viverridae - Civet in which list are, inter alia: Sulawesi palm civet (Macrogalidia musschenbroekii), Asian palm civet (Paradoxurus hermaphroditus), Malayan civet (Viverra tangalunga) and the Herpestidae family (Moongoose) Family Herpestidae - Mongoose in which list are, inter alia: Indian and Egyptian Mongoose as well as Meerkats?

Or simply is this a precautionary blanket approach to screen anything coming from some African countries, where the level of BF surveillance is non-existent, since “However, the meerkat has been known to eat small birds that migrate through Southern Africa” (source: Wikipedia?

Are they planning to import Meerkats for local zoos, or do I have to read anything deeper in this paper? Can someone write to the contact point mentioned in the document [I can’t] and ask more details about this measure?

gharris – at 10:42

I did not see a response to you. I am convinced (my opinion only) that the reported “Strep Suis” outbreak in China last year was H5N1 (As I believe this year’s die off is H5N1, too.). It happened after the outbreak at Qinghai. Within two months, it was in Sichuan, and pigs by the thousands (according to Boxun reports) were dying (Summer time and the dying is easy). The only problem with this die off was that the Communist Chinese were sectioning off whole sections of the countryside with the military. (sort of alarmist if your are dealing with a formerly benign bacteria, isn’t it?)

There were BOXUN reports of whole villages disappearing after the military came through. Eventually it was obvious that the Chinese containment efforts failed as “Strep Suis” had spread to other regions. What was most alarming was that people who were involved in the butchering of the pigs that had died were dying also. Many were dying within hours of contact with raw meat. There were a hell of a lot more than just 37 of them. China was able to get that under control by stopping the butchering of any infected/sick pig. If pigs were suspect, the meat had to be cut up with protection worn. It was a VIRUS, not a bacteria.

Jody at 19:01. Thanks for your alertness on this. However in this case, the dates from the articles appear to be from late summer 2005, during the Strep suis outbreak. However it was confusing for a bit, because the one headline attributed the outbreak to a virus…so even I thought it might be current. Further reading of that article reveals the date and links to the strep outbreak, which is a bacteria. Obviously the reporter made an error in calling it a virus. That is, if the pathogen was indeed a bacteria (sigh).

when they die within hours, then it can’t be influenza. What do you think about the suggested circuvirus II with a strep-suis coinfection ?

This is a response to questions on the What is your PPF thread…thanks.

…You have asked a question about pigs so I will give you my impressions of this point in time and copy it to the pig thread.

I think we are in a period of quiescence…the calm before the storm…so to speak.

H5N1 has successfully lulled us to sleep…we have become acclimatized to the news out of Asia so it doesn’t shock us anymore and reporters aren’t concentrating on the story either…I would say that this characteristic occurs with most significant natural disasters that occur infrequently…what would be the mind-set on the west coast of North America regarding earthquakes or tsunami’s at this point.

I believe that it is exactly at this point in time that you must become more vigilant not less…because this invariably happens and the storm comes just after most are convinced in will never happen or we have escaped the threat.

I collect seemingly unrelated information to come to a conclusion about disease. I continue to be concerned about the background scatter…the seemingly increased rate of pathogen change including parasites, bacteria and viruses…for instance, this morning on the Canadian Broadcast Corporation, they announced that the number of Legionnare’s cases in Ontario Canada this year has suddenly and unexpectedly and unexplainedly doubled…for no good reason. Dengue fever that we have had some talking about on flu wiki, a mosquito borne disease has undergone some remarkable changes increasing its virulence and geographic distribution…then we have Strept suis, Foot and Mouth, SARS, H5N1 and this new mysterious viral disease killing millions of animals in China…this is pattern repeating itself all over the world at the moment…I’m sure that this occurrence of increased mutations has occurred in the past but can’t help but think that global warming and sunspots (medical maven) are invoved as multipliers.

to be continued.

While I am at it, I might as well give you my impressions of the response of regulators…I worked with them directly for twenty years and have observed the Chinese government and regulators around the world closely for the last nine years approx.

From Jan 2005-Nov 2005 all regulators and many experts thought that H5N1 was a dead-end, would go away on its own and cause no problems. There was a consistent campaign of downplaying the risk and actively taking on anyone of the other persuasion (Dr. Nabarro etc - I will give you an example after this is written as a reference).

Then came Q. lake which was the Chinese Governments own inventions (sometimes you would almost have to think they want it to happen because it seems that they are doing everything possible to help the virus)…they had captured wild waterfowl from Q. lake, raised them in captivity where they contacted H5N1 and then released or let them escaped back to Q. lake at exactly the time period that they were beginning to migrate…and we all know what happened.

That created a wave of panic to go through regulators…it lasted about three weeks and then they all started back-tracking to cover their collective ass in case it didn’t happen…’they flit on the wind, like a leaf on the wind…blowing one way and then another…never able to make up their minds’.

Just about the time everyone was back on the ‘ain’t going to happen bandwaggon’…along came Karo in Indonesia with obvious….H-H-H at least…it was no surprise to us because of Monotreme but it sure was to others…once again their band-wagon hit the ditch and they all fell or jumped off again…try as they might, they haven’t been able to get that bandwagon quite out of the ditch since.

Now we have an unknown, undisclosed widespread outbreak in pigs and finally the serology to indicate it is in pig herds in affected areas asymptomatically…

…I believe that every regulator knows exactly what you know…this battle is now unwinnable…the opportunities to stop it are gone…the opportunity to control it is gone…you don’t see any flipant comments anymore…even from the skeptics…

…the scientific jury is in and the unanimous conclusion is that we will get it but don’t know when…the pigs certainly indicate sooner rather than later but sooner could be in five years…we just don’t know yet…

to be continued.

Okay the only question left is timing…okay there is also a question of virulence but it seems to have already been answered…in spite of the experts conclusions and insistence…H5N1 virulence has consistently increased over the last nine years…I don’t think we can expect this trend to stop now…the coming H5N1 pandemic will be as bad as 1918 at a minimum.

Okay, so what am I looking for in the next month from pigs. We don’t necessarily have to look for it in pig populations anymore because we now know it is there asymptomatically…

…I think the key is when it goes from asymptomatic to symptomatic…this may have just occurred in China and is the cause for my uneasiness at the moment…

…My friend Dick Thompson, at the World Health Organization, knows exactly what is going on in China…and he could make me feel a lot better if he would just do his job, stand before the cameras, and tell me and you…what the causative agent is…

not only should this represent regulatory ethics but scientific ethics and veterinary science ethics as well…the WHO’s collective and total silence on several issues puts their ethics in question although I don’t think there is much question left about whether the World Health Organization is a political or scientific organization…IT IS MOST DEFINITELY 100% POLITICAL AND 0 % SCIENTIFIC.

If the disease goes from asymptomatic to symptomatic in pigs we are weeks or maybe a few months from a full blown pandemic and every regulatory with a brain in the world knows it…right now.

Like I said, you have to study history while at the same time acknowledging, from a disease perspective, nature never repeats itself…

…I am thinking pigs as a wick to people this time rather than people to pigs…and the first wave will be the bad one…

…In one day we go from relative security to full blown pandemic…all mutations in at the same time producing a pandemic ready virus that gets on an airplane exactly the way SARS did.

The only chance at control at this point…and I am not sure it would work…would be for the Chinese to immediately slaughter and de-populate all pig farms in the area of ‘H5N1 ground zero’.

This is the reference I talked about above as to the approach of regulators before Q. lake…this apparent lack of concern removed any chance of controlling and stopping the progression of H5N1 before it got us…unfortunately.

DICK THOMPSON…ANYTIME YOU WOULD LIKE TO COME ON FLU WIKI AND DISCUSS THINGS WITH US…YOU WILL BE MORE THAN WELCOME…

…I BELIEVE THAT FLU WIKI IS A SIGNIFICANT PUBLIC INFORMATION NETWORK AND THE PEOPLE ON THIS NETWORK PAY YOUR WAGES…THEREFORE, IN MY OPINION, YOU HAVE AN OBLIGATION.

……………………………………………..

A flu pandemic could happen at any time and kill between 5–150 million people, a UN health official has warned. David Nabarro, who is charged with co-ordinating responses to bird flu, said a mutation of the virus affecting Asia could trigger new outbreaks.

“It’s like a combination of global warming and HIV/Aids 10 times faster than it’s running at the moment,” Dr Nabarro told the BBC.

But the World Health Organisation has distanced itself from the figure.

The WHO spokesman on influenza, Dick Thompson, told a news conference in Geneva that the WHO’s official estimate of the number of people who could die was between two million and 7.4 million.

“There is obvious confusion, and I think that has to be straightened out. I don’t think you will hear Dr Nabarro say the same sort of thing again,” Mr Thompson said.

Bird flu has swept through poultry and wild birds in Asia since 2003. It has killed huge numbers of birds and led to more than 60 human deaths.

Prepared for worst

“The range of deaths could be anything between 5m and 150m,” the UN’s new co-ordinator for avian and human influenza said in his BBC interview.

Dr Nabarro said he stood by the figure drawn from the work of epidemiologists around the world.

“My reason for giving the higher figure is simply that I want to be sure that when this next flu pandemic does come along, that we are prepared for the worst as well as for the mildest,” he said.

In an earlier interview with the BBC, he said the likelihood that the Asian virus could mutate and jump to humans was high.

“The consequences in terms of human life when the pandemic does start are going to be extraordinary and very damaging,” he said.

Because it has moved to wild migratory birds there is a possibility “that the first outbreak could happen even in Africa or in the Middle East”, he warned.

The comments came as agriculture ministers from the Association of South East Asian Nations (Asean) endorsed a three-year plan to combat the spread of the virus, and pledged $2m to fund research and training.

Dr Nabarro said the number of deaths from any future influenza pandemic would depend on where it started, how quickly it was discovered and the kind of response they got from governments. “I believe that the work we’re doing over the next few months will make the difference between, for example, whether the next pandemic leads us in the direction of 150 or in the direction of five.”

The appointment of Dr Nabarro is an indication of how seriously the UN is taking the threat, the BBC’s UN correspondent Suzannah Price says.

In his new role, he is meant to ensure the UN has a co-ordinated response to bird flu and that it helps global efforts to prepare for any human flu pandemic, our correspondent says.

Story from BBC NEWS: http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/4292426.stm

Published: 2005/09/30 15:21:25 GMT

© BBC MMVI

TOM DVM – at 10:36 Sorry…I forgot to say that I am endebted to anonymous for putting this reference back on flu wiki a few weeks ago…and it is essential to the discussion…

…I would really like to thank him/her by name but since I can’t…

…ANONYMOUSE…THANKS AGAIN!!

Thank You TomDVM. I’ve always respected your perspective. (I dare you to say that 10 times fast!) :-)

TOM DVM – at 10:47

Your initial post in the string above referenced the outbreaks of other illnesses at the same time. Have you gone to ProMed and looked at all the Anthrax outbreaks worldwide recently. How about all the mumps and measles cases in people who were supposedly immunized already?

When I used to post on the AFT site, I postulated that from the history of H1N1 in 1918, one thing stood out and that was that immediately prior to the Pandemic, there were numerous other larger than normal outbreaks of other diseases.

Large outbreaks of measles, mumps, swine flu, and other totally unrelated to influenza swept the world. It was as if a host of illnesses were unleashed on the world at the same time.

I refer to that as, “Prior to the Devil Dancing (the Pandemic), the demons come out to dance first.” (The demons being the other illnesses.) All I am doing to postulate that is looking back at history. It sure seems that history is repeating itself.

If all these illnesses break out in disproportionate numbers (measles and mumps swept eastern Europe in the past year) AND a World War breaks out, THEN we will really know that history repeats itself.

I do believe the demons are dancing.

Tom - Have you moved beyond the planing prep stage yet? I truly hope so. If what you have posted hasn’t scared the nickers off you then nothing will. Do you believe what you are typing or is this just a game for you? Sometimes you really make me wonder. No more procrastination allowed. …PLEASE… move your arse …now! This crude plea comes from the heart. gina

Hi gina. Thanks. I believe what I am typing and it is definitely not a game for me or for you or for anybody else. We all have other things we could be doing and wish we were doing on a beautiful fall day!! /:0)

It can’t scare the nickers off me because I don’t have nickers…However, I have been around for a while and I could not have concieved of a pathogen of uniquely this viscousness and host range and absolutely unique capability for evil…if you know what I mean…I am scared silly but for reasons I don’t completely understand…seem unable to make the first step. To me, my behavior is another set of interesting observations.

I will stop procrastinating soon…and thanks for your kind words.

Joe. I predicted the Anthrax outbreaks about three years ago…but they were not such a stretch to predict…I have mentioned before a blackleg outbreak in my area after vanishing for more than forty years. Anthrax another member of the same class of soil borne bacteria that cause tetanus and black leg…often come in periods of rain after extended drought conditions…this would be a little more environmentally sensitive then the others you mentioned including mumps and meazles…

…I have read a few descriptions of mumps and meazles outbreaks around 1918 but had not made the connection and comparison that you have…

…makes me wonder whether there was increased sunspot activity in the ten or twenty years before 1918…if you see Medical Maven on the threads…bushwack him and get him to read this…he may know of a chart or something that can indicate sunspot activity in that time period…

…really interesting stuff.

Last summer I observed the following pattern…1830 to 1918 to 2006…am 88 year time frame…

…Dr. Osterholm in his may 2005 NEJM article said that the 1918 pandemic was not unique…there had been one as bad or worse in 1830…the difference being lower world populations and poor reporting at the time…interestingly enough…the last major tsunami in the Indian Ocean also occurred in I think 1825.

Anyway, after reading John Barry’s book, I have learned that there was a pandemic in 1890–91 that was ‘the worst one in 300 yrs’ and was far worse than 1830 or 1918…

…this probably means that 1968 was the outlier…1918 was probably the mean or median rather than an outlier and 1957 was an average mild pandemic…

…the more you learn the more these repeating patterns seem to follow…

…bottom line…we are ‘screwed’…soon!!

Medical Maven. I see you are on flu wiki at the moment and will read this…so I will slap it down in a hurry.

Do you know of a historical record where person or persons kept track of sunspot and sunrelated activity that would affect mutation rates on earth Thanks.

Tom you want sunspot numbers? Well it turns out I live fairly near Sunspot NM and the national solar Obser. Try this. http://www.nso.edu/

http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/SunspotCycle.shtml

and for a chart:

excuse me for “butting in”

OOPs I just posted the link and the chart came up. I didn’t know it would do that.

Monotreme - I went through this page and the previous page and couldn’t find this report anywhere. I think it was under “Misc.”. This post is from the previous page:

Monotreme – at 10:13 Call of the Wild – at 01:36 Any news on the pig front? The biggest news is no news. China is a member of the OIE (World Organisation for Animal Health). One would think that millions of pigs dying of a highly lethal, apparently highly infectious disease would be a reportable event. They have not reported this event to the OIE. Here are the OIE reports by country. If you scroll down to the China section, you’ll see that their last report was Foot and Mouth Disease in cows (August 24 2006). There are also reports of H5N1 in birds on August 3 and 17 2006. The only mention of pigs is Streptococus suis on September 9 2005.
Here’s my post: http://tinyurl.com/lmokw
MISCELLANEOUS: “SWINE HIGH FEVER DISEASE” IN PIGS IN CHINA (PEOPLE’S REP. OF ~)

See also: 3 August 2006, 29 June 2006, 15 June 2006, 8 June 2006, 1 June 2006, 27 April 2006, 2 February 2006

Information received on 14 September 2006 from Mr Jia Youling, Director General, Veterinary Bureau, Ministry of Agriculture, Beijing:

Report date: 12 September 2006.

Since the end of June, pigs have died of a disease characterised by rising body temperature, redness of the skin and rapid breathing in some parts of 6 provinces of China, namely Hunan, Jiangxi, Anhui, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Hubei. Immediately after the occurrence of the disease, the Ministry of Agriculture took appropriate prevention and control measures and the unnatural deaths of pigs have come to a stop. By epidemiological investigation and laboratory testing of 582 samples of pathogenic material, we have discovered that this disease is closely related to the mixed infection of classical swine fever, porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome and porcine circovirus. Of all the pathogenic samples, 263 samples (i.e. 45%) were positive for porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS); 167 samples (i.e. 29.2%) were positive for classical swine fever (CSF); 130 samples (i.e. 22.3%) were positive for porcine circovirus (PCV-2); 17 samples were positive for Aujeszky’s disease; 6 samples were positive for Streptococcus suis; one sample was positive for pasteurellosis infection, and 47 samples were positive for porcine contagious pleuropneumonia infection. Samples that tested positive for PRRS, CFS, or PCV-2 account for 96.5% of the total of the samples tested. We also tested 80 samples from sick pigs for African swine fever with polymerase chain reaction as recommended by the Manual of Diagnostic Tests and Vaccines for Terrestrial Animals. All of the results were negative and the possibility of African swine fever can therefore be ruled out.

A similar swine disease was also found in some southern provinces of China in hot summers during the last few years. It was also called “swine high fever disease” in some places. Several features concerning the occurrence of the disease have been identified. Firstly, it is very seasonal. It is found mainly from June to September. Secondly, it only affects certain areas along the Yangtze River, mainly in the provinces of Hunan, Hubei, Jangxi, Anhui and Jiagsu. The morbidity and mortality rate of the disease have not shown a sudden or unexpected increase so far. We are currently arranging for a microbiologist to conduct further research. If there is any new detection of the disease, it will be notified to the OIE immediately. The status of classical swine fever and other animal diseases will continue to be notified to the OIE.

Note by the OIE Animal Health Information Department: this is the reply received from the Chinese veterinary authorities in response to a request based on information that has been circulating regarding high mortality observed in pigs in some parts of the People’s Republic of China.

Tom DVM Do you suspect an increase in disease outbreak as a result of increased UV radiation due to sun spot activity????

Hi Anon 451. I remember reading a long time ago, probably in the 1980′s that scientists have found a relationship between pulses of the suns radiation (sunspots and another name that slips my mind at the moment) and the emergence of unique viruses or mutated viruses.

I believe we are in a period of massive increases in mutations and emergence of all pathogens including viruses, parasites and bacteria…and I assume that it is due to global warming =/- sunspot activity…I don’t know which is the chicken or which is the egg or if they are not related at all…

the end result is easy to see…we grew up in an era with relative stability and few significant disease challenges…now it is hard to find a case where something isn’t happening…drug resistant bacteria, strep suis pigs China affecting humans for the first time…malaria and dengue fever with mosquito vectors…H3N8 influenza stable in horses for fifty years suddenly jumping to dogs and probably later to humans…

…the bottom line is that we have skeptics who believe that H5N1 is a created crisis that will never happen…but they must consider H5N1 in the context of the pressures pushing all pathogens at the moment…the pressures creating them are pushing H5N1 also…and it doesn’t need the help!!

we are most definitely going to get it.

Tom at 12:57-I saved the file that showed the strong historical correlation between solar maximums and panflu, but the other ones regarding mutation rates I did not save. I will get a synopsis on the one file here in a little bit with the sourcing. But the next Solar Maxima is not due until 2012, and I think we are on the verge of panflu right now. And “the experts” expect the coming Solar Maxima to be 30 to 50 per cent more intense than the previous one. And they expect its intensity to eclipse the high levels of the Solar Maxima in 1957 (a panflu year).

I think this H5N1 phenomenon is a REAL outlier and will “kick off” without the added catalyst of a solar maximum. But H5N1 does have that catalyst in reserve just in case it needs one (along with the geographical redoubt of Africa which seems to be bubbling as of late).

The solar maximum presents two things to the evolutionary environment- the knock-off effect of higher average world temperatures and the direct mutational effects of solar magnetic storms. Three studies (which I did not save) are pertinent to those two above-mentioned effects.

First off, I saw a very rigorous scientific journal aticle showing in exhausting detail the correlation between all past solar maximums and a rise in temperature worldwide, no doubt about it. (And I read a couple more studies showing the same thing from other sources).

Then, I read about a year back a couple of different studies (maybe from New Scientist) demonstrating the correlation between higher environmental temperatures and increased mutational rates in various organisms, amoebas and viruses I believe.

And finally, as regards to the physiological effects of solar magnetic storms I read a brief outline of an epidemological study out of Russia showing a strong correlation worldwide between hemorrhagic strokes and solar maximums. The researcher conjectured that there were intracellular effects in the arterial system due to these intense storms. It was not seasonal, so hotter weather was not the cause.

My conclusion is that Global Warming is giving us right now the first part of the catalytic effect of solar maximums. We will get the second part of that catalytic effect as 2012 draws near. But really I don’t think H5N1 or any other pending panflu will need it.

Oh, and even though this is somewhat off-topic, I read a couple of days ago on the Yahoo Health or Science feed that birth defects are skyrocketing in China. The authorities are blaming the rise on unhealthy lifestyles, diet, and POLLUTION. Astoundingly, in Gaundong province the birth defect rate has DOUBLED in ten years. And I just read that Bejing set a record for acid rain days in August and many other parts of China set a record, too, in August. China is the largest polluter of Sulfur Dioxide on the planet. One new coal-powered electrical plant goes on-line in China every week. And I also read that they do not install the pollution controls like the West has. The scrubbers aren’t there. And the mercury from the coal ends up in the Sierras in California.

Dennis Thanks a lot…really interesting.

Unfortunately, too short a timeline but here is what I see. 1) 1870-peak 2)1890-gully 3) 1918-peak 4)1957-peak 5) 1968-peak…and presently we are in more or less a gully…and it appears these cycles ocur over ten years therefore we should be about five years from the pandemic…wouldn’t that be nice.

Now we just need a complete list of all pandemics or thought to be pandemics in history and an accurate set of sunspot ativity readings (these are probably accurate but appear a little to symetric for my liking…there seems to be little variance from the mean over time).

Medical Maven Thanks…I think the next most interesting thing we should all concentrate on is correlating as much information from historical sunspot activity and environmental temperatures and warming patterns to mutations.

Commonground – at 13:34

Thanks! This is at least a start. I’m glad the OIE asked the Chinese authorities for a report. At least now we know what they are saying it is. Whether their diagnosis is correct is another matter.

Medical Maven…I’m glad that I am not the only one on flu wiki who reads these really interesting a and important articles…and then forgets to save them. /:0)

Monotreme - glad I could help :-)

Commonground Thanks.

Monotreme. If I was the attending veterinarian I would have screened every sick pig for influenza…so that I could say beyond a shadow of a doubt that there was no chance that influenza in playing a role here…

…unfortunately, from the report, it does not seem that they have done it…once again making no sense to me.

Tom, you seem to be forgetting one of your previous pertinent observations. We may not need to be at the peak in a sunspot cycle due to the critical mass in animal populations around the world. Mega-urban and mega-farm conditions have pushed people, chickens, pigs and other livestock so close together that we may have reached the tipping point on that issue alone, regardless of the proteus-like behavior of H5N1. Never before have we had the kind of overcrowded conditions that we seem to be experiencing at the moment. The crowded conditions could lead to their own novel problems. There are just too many variables on such a wide scale to consider.

Tom, as much as I scan, if I started “saving”, there would be no end to it. (And there is laziness). : )

Anyway, here is what I do have:

2001 American Chemical Society

“Ken Tapping, a researcher at Dominion Radio Astrophysical Observatory in Penticton, and his two colleagues compared historical records of flu pandemics and solar flare activity dating back to the early 1700s (Can.J.Inf.Dis. 2001, 12 in press). The group looked at how closely the infectious disease tracked with the years of peak activity and weighted the correlation accordingly. They found a definite tendency for pandemics to occur during periods of solar maxima, and a statistical simulation suggested that the chance of the cycles being randomly coincidental was less than 2 per cent”.

I just looked at the journal article that commonground referenced.

There is a couple of things…the journal editor made a point of saying that the information was not offered by the Chinese Government proactively but had to be asked for based on circulating information…in other words rumours.

Secondly, if this disease has been going on for several years…this is the first time that it has been reported…albeit reactively rather than proactively.

And the other thing is that all other dates mentioned are in relation to avian influenza and I find it interesting that both would be listed at the same time…

…while China’s strept suis and Foot and Mouth outbreaks are not…hmhmhmhmhmmmmmmmmm.

DeJure. You are absolutely right…this thing is multi-factorial in nature…

…that comment in the 1980′s was at the time, so weird, that it has kind of stuck with me ever since…

…the 1890 pandemic was the worst in three hundred years and suposedly many times worse than 1918 so just cause we are in a gully doesn’t mean we are off the hook…and the data looks to me to be too symetrical, nature is never this predictable…but it is sure interesting!!

I’ve got this thing for patterns…what can I say. /:0)

Tom and De Jure-You can see from the data in the last ten postings or so what a “witches brew” of synergistic change we have ongoing just in China, disregarding elsewhere in the world. And most of it has occurred in the last ten years, just as H5N1 began to emerge as a threat.

I don’t think most people realize how radically the world has changed in the last ten years. We here are beginning to realize it. Most of the public still has “the past” in their mind’s eye.

Overpopulation and Crowding (human and animal), Global Warming, Pollution, Environmental Stress, Antibiotic Resistance, Emerging Diseases, Habitat Destruction (and and water), Accelerated Species Extinction (flora and fauna)-----And the rest we can only guess at (after all we are only 90 years from the “horse and buggy” days). As De Jure said, “too many variables”. And I would add “not enough time”. The Clock has run out.

Tom, regarding the OIE report I posted, are any of these locations near where those rabid dogs were in China?

Hunan, Jiangxi, Anhui, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Hubei.

Here’s where the dogs were culled. But that doesn’t mean they were from there. They were just culled there: Jining, China, which is in the Province of Shandong

Regarding Solar flares: I’ve been following them for the last 3–4 years and remember that the largest ever recorded in history occurred in the Fall, 2003 - late Oct, early Nov. It was an X43 [normal X flares are in the 1–5 range]! Then I must note that the NBC timelapse also began in 2003. So, I would not count solar flares out of the picture on H5N1. Have to run or I would research this and give better details.

Dogs where culled in the Province of Shandong. These are four Provinces that border Shandong, and they are where the pigs died: Hunan, Anhui, Jiangsu, Hubei.

Commonground We were doing a little bit on the dogs yesterday…and I don’t think we could establish a close enough relationship to form a connection…but who knows…when it comes to China everything is related or appears to be…

…it does remind me of Russia in the seventies…remember how everyone was preoccupied reading between the lines trying to distill fact from fiction.

MAinVA. When you get back and if you have time…I for one would be really interested in the details you mentioned Thanks.

Tom, what’s most important is now it is documented here on the thread…..maybe for future reference?

/:0)

(Dear Mrs.Tom DVM, I’m sure you’re busy too, but please, go prep. Luv, the TDVM Fan Club.)

“…1830 to 1918 to 2006…am 88 year time frame…” I take patterns from you seriously, TomDVM.

I’d put you, Monotreme, Medical Maven, CanadaSue, Anon22, and too many to name, but sure could have a full Flu Wiki dozen, in charge. The world needs people’s long-term health, cared about, and the ecosystem understood, more than short-term, benefits-few politics.

Ok; keep a straight face during this quote: (We already know how many other places in mammals H5N1 ends up!) “The organism is carried on the pig’s tonsils and is spread pig-to-pig through nose rubbing or coughing. But it’s only found in small concentration on the pigs’ tonsils, so it’s difficult for a human to catch it that way,”

(Buzzer sounds!)

Joe Neubarth – at 09:43, …”people who were involved in the butchering of the pigs that had died were dying also. Many were dying within hours of contact with raw meat. There were a hell of a lot more than just 37 of them. China was able to get that under control by stopping the butchering of any infected/sick pig. If pigs were suspect, the meat had to be cut up with protection worn”…

(We’re away past “we don’t live with chickens” “nor rub noses with pigs” reassurances, officials.)

anonymous – at 10:27, “when they die within hours, then it can’t be influenza” (Buzzer sounds!)

“It was just influenza” that was causing recently healthy people to drop dead during the 1918–1919 pandemic.

Dennis C. thanks for the chart (though the lines look a bit like my sleep patterns, somehow) MAinVA, I remember about that wicked big X flare! (Didn’t the Japanese just launch something? -Oh; …”the Solar-B mission, a UK, US and Japanese collaboration, hopes to learn more about solar flares.”)

Pigs, mammals Vivarridae, Herpestidae, or “other”…ugh. Too many possibilities, too many continents. TOM DVM – at 10:51 “…In one day we go from relative security to full blown pandemic…all mutations in at the same time producing a pandemic ready virus that gets on an airplane exactly the way SARS did.”

Closed and continued here.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/4755328.stm

Hi All- I heard this guy talking on the radio. Thought it might be a good way to add to the thread.

Europe’s “Little Ice Age” may have been triggered by the 14th Century Black Death plague, according to a new study.

Pollen and leaf data support the idea that millions of trees sprang up on abandoned farmland, soaking up carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

This would have had the effect of cooling the climate, a team from Utrecht University, Netherlands, says.

The Little Ice Age was a period of some 300 years when Europe experienced a dip in average temperatures.

Dr Thomas van Hoof and his colleagues studied pollen grains and leaf remains collected from lake-bed sediments in the southeast Netherlands.

Monitoring the ups and downs in abundance of cereal pollen (like buckwheat) and tree pollen (like birch and oak) enabled them to estimate changes in land-use between AD 1000 and 1500.

Pore clues

The team found an increase in cereal pollen from 1200 onwards (reflecting agricultural expansion), followed by a sudden dive around 1347, linked to the agricultural crisis caused by the arrival of the Black Death, most probably a bacterial disease spread by rat fleas.

This bubonic plague is said to have wiped out over a third of Europe’s population. ( I don’t think it was Bubonic- I think it was a virus)

Counting stomata (pores) on ancient oak leaves provided van Hoof’s team with a measure of the fluctuations in atmospheric carbon dioxide for the same period.

This is because leaves absorb carbon dioxide through their stomata, and their density varies as carbon dioxide goes up and down.

“Between AD 1200 to 1300, we see a decrease in stomata and a sharp rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide, due to deforestation we think,” says Dr van Hoof, whose findings are published in the journal Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology.

But after AD 1350, the team found the pattern reversed, suggesting that atmospheric carbon dioxide fell, perhaps due to reforestation following the plague.

The researchers think that this drop in carbon dioxide levels could help to explain a cooling in the climate over the following centuries.

Ocean damper

From around 1500, Europe appears to have been gripped by a chill lasting some 300 years.

There are many theories as to what caused these bitter years, but popular ideas include a decrease in solar activity, an increase in volcanic activity or a change in ocean circulation.

The new data adds weight to the theory that the Black Death could have played a pivotal role.

Not everyone is convinced, however. Dr Tim Lenton, an environmental scientist from the University of East Anglia, UK, said: “It is a nice study and the carbon dioxide changes could certainly be a contributory factor, but I think they are too modest to explain all the climate change seen.”

And Professor Richard Houghton, a climate expert from Woods Hole Research Center in Massachusetts, US, believes that the oceans would have compensated for the change.

“The atmosphere is in equilibrium with the ocean and this tends to dampen or offset small changes in terrestrial carbon uptake,” he explained.

Nonetheless, the new findings are likely to cause a stir.

“It appears that the human impact on the environment started much earlier than the industrial revolution,” said Dr van Hoof.