From Flu Wiki 2

Forum: New Rumors V

01 October 2006

FrenchieGirlat 16:36

News Thread for 1st October — Monotreme – at 13:32 — Oremus – at 11:32

I’m hoping FrenchieGirl will be able to give us a head’s up on that, but I’m not sure. She lives and works in Geneva.

- There’s no perspiration here as yet, and my very local sources are mute (not mute swans, lol!).

- I’d been hoping to see [X, who’s really high-up in a European capital] this w/e, but [X] decided to come over at the end of October instead… and it’s not something I (or [X]) would care to speak about on our professional phones, it would be a very difficult discussion. I shall ask [X] to dig really deep into [X’s] contacts and that’s (personally) not an easy request for either the asker or the responder. Receiving and giving favours are double-edged swords.

- I was waiting for two other contacts, one local and one posted overseas, but they haven’t come back… yet. [Y] will, I’m sure, because [Y] needs me for something (though it’s not urgent and I do not care to force the issue). As for [Z], if I manage to have some answers, they will be good ones, but it’s through another party, so I can’t push there either.

- If you use the first link at the bottom of this CIDRAP Article (http://tinyurl.com/nqqkg), you may find interesting speak from the lady doctor whom you mentioned in your news article at 11:03 and who is now in charge of IHR. If you google the name, there’s plenty more… and you can make your own mind up as to whether she is the person for the tasks ahead. I am not enough of a politician to utter an opinion on this subject.

- I have not done any local shopping this w/e, having been busy tidying up my preps! I’d come to the point of not knowing anymore where all the stuff was hidden and how much I had of each item. So I can’t say anything on the state of shortages in the local shops. Saw one leisurely WHO car this afternoon at the motorway toll, when I was taking my old lady out, so nothing to report on that score either.


Despite our being so impatient to know something of utmost importance to humanity, there is a time for everything, and a season for every activity under heaven: …… a time to search and a time to give up, …… a time to be silent and a time to speak. Eccl.3

Goju – at 16:42

http://www.centralchronicle.com/20061002/0210102.htm

Kids down with pneumonia

Chronicle News Service Raisen, Oct 1: As the weather is changing so children are suffering from pneumonia and half a dozen children have died till now at pediatric ward in the district hospital.

However, there are only 16 beds at the pediatric ward but on Sunday 45 children have been admitted in this ward. There were 25 children who were found affected with pneumonia. These children are being treated with nabulizer machine giving them steam treatment. The patients have also been admitted in Dhanvantari Dhamashala. The children who have been admitted earlier not being discharged as their treatment is going on. Every day 5–6 new patients are being admitted here.

Malaria patients have also not decreased but the number of malaria patients are increasing continuously.

In this connection the pediatrics Dr Dinesh Saxena and Dr Priti Bala Silawat said that the bacteria of pneumonia spread through air and if healthy child comes into contact with ill child then he also falls sick. Patient feels suffocation with high fever. Many children become very weak and look blue. The affected children also feel problem in drinking milk. In this situation the patients should be taken to doctor then and there.

Doctors said that the mosquito which bites today it may affect after 15 days.

Precautions-

The affected child should be kept away from other children.

The children should be prevented from smoke and dust.

The patient should be given boiled drinking water.

Keep away them from the air of cooler and fan.

The affected child should be given liquid intermittently.

FrenchieGirlat 17:33

Me, at 13:36: the lady doctor is a man! My recollection of such people is dim… Sorry! The person (lady) whose face I remembered, with, obviously, the wrong name, was on “our” side, so we still have allies in the gigantic international web… Mmmm that gives me ideas…

Monotreme – at 17:34

Dr Guénaël Rodier, I presume.

Monotreme – at 17:51

Dr Guénaël Rodier talking about a the field investigation during the Turkish outbreak. Now, what was the result of that investigation again? Seems that I vaguely remember being told to be patient back in February. The team needed a bit of time to collect all the data before we would hear about the details: cluster size, relationships between the patients, seroprevalence, etc. 8 months later… Here’s what we’ve heard.

Dr Rodier may be a good guy, I can’t say for sure. But he’s no rebel.

FrenchieGirlat 18:05

But the lady I remember is a rebel…

treyfish – at 19:59

SIL is nurse,says she is not too worried but is stocked.sounds more worried about terrorism.Says she will stay home if it hits, to watch 3 kids.Has discussed it with my brother who is a fireman.She says he will work though.Also her nurse friends talk about it frequently.Saw her at walmart.She probobly thinks im a loon but seemed uneasy to talk about it.I think she knows stuff.I also told her i would state the info at a website.

Monotreme – at 20:02

FrenchieGirl – at 18:05

But the lady I remember is a rebel…

Do you remember her name and if so are you willing to mention her name? My current favorite WHO person is Dr. Julie Hall.

FloridaGirlat 20:37

Monotreme – at 17:51

Crickets? Must be a sense of humor…

Monotreme – at 21:24

FloridaGirl – at 20:37

Crickets? Must be a sense of humor…

Well, at least an attempt.

02 October 2006

FrenchieGirlat 15:56

Monotreme – at 20:02 — FrenchieGirl – at 18:05 But the lady I remember is a rebel… — Do you remember her name and if so are you willing to mention her name?

Do I remember her name - Yes
Am I willing to mention her name - No

But thanks to all this mix-up, I have another avenue for searching info. Will try to do the same as I did for SARS. I might need pointers to printable, short, accurate, scientific info on the Wiki that refute, or at least sheds a new light on, what WHO is currently saying. I’ve been a bit tired these days, difficult to concentrate, much work too, and a forthcoming mission to some African G.d forsaken countries to prepare for. So if you’d let me know from which thread/wiki chapter I can get at some medical shooters, for the international medical community which is not in WHO, but in other agencies, that would be nice. I’ll look up Goju’s but I seem to remember there were fliers/brochures somewhere, no? I’m slowly seeing a strategy develop, but let’s not jump guns. One thing at a time. That’s starting with coffee breaks with people who can forward info. (Innit nice to be a civil servant, hey!).

Leo7 – at 16:18

Maybe, we should consider the recent reports of the seasonal flu vaccine “maybe” 50% effective for pandemic flu as a rumor? If people believe this then fluwickie can pack down and disappear in the hall of website memories. Are we afraid to tackle the running back because the report has Webster’s name on it?

a’Akova – at 21:02

Viremia + Mosquitoes = another vector ?

Can mosquitoes transmit influenza ?

OKbirdwatcherat 21:22

Leo7 - Good one.

Tom DVM – at 23:46

Leo7. “Maybe, we should consider the recent reports of the seasonal flu vaccine “maybe” 50% effective for pandemic flu as a rumor?”

I think we need a new thread for this one…it is bigger then even some of the **** that the WHO has tried to pass off…with a straight face.

Like you said…there isn’t one person on flu wiki that probably wouldn’t mind doing something else for 5 or maybe 10 years.

I just wondered why they didn’t release this little gem about…say five years ago…were they just keeping us in suspense until the last moment.

Leo7 – at 23:55

OKbirdwatcher and TomDVM:

The silence isn’t golden, its tarnished. Everyone will be fighting for the flu shot and then figure if there is pandemic flu they got a 50/50 chance. I’d take those odds wouldn’t you? I remember taking a sales seminar in college. “If you want people to go wild for your product predict it will be scarce, build it up in reports as the answer to everyone’s prayers and then report a delivery delay etc and the money will flow into your business product. This is exactly what’s happening with the seasonal vacc, not to mention I recall pharma’s saying they were getting out of the vacc business due to costs. Now we’ve got vaccs for HPV, and possibles for nicotine and cocaine addiction, obesity, and possible pan flu but why bother we got 50/50 odds right, next there will be vaccines for long blonde hair!

03 October 2006

anon_22 – at 02:01

FrenchieGirl,

What exactly are you looking for? As in what are you trying to refute?

Pixie – at 07:42

Leo7 - at 23:55: “If you want people to go wild for your product predict it will be scarce, build it up in reports as the answer to everyone’s prayers and then report a delivery delay etc and the money will flow into your business product. This is exactly what’s happening with the seasonal vacc..”

So the plan is to market the “hey, this might work!” seasonal flu vax just like Beanie Babies? Great.

Goju – at 07:44

i like my plan better

AVanartsat 08:31

Leo7 - at 23:55: “If you want people to go wild for your product predict it will be scarce, build it up in reports as the answer to everyone’s prayers and then report a delivery delay etc and the money will flow into your business product. This is exactly what’s happening with the seasonal vacc..”

Around here (Portland, Or area) we keep hearing on the news that there is no shortage of the seasonal vaccine this year. I have an appointment to get both the seasonal flu vaccine and the pneumonia vaccine on Wednesday afternoon. The product is already here and in good quantity.

Tom DVM – at 09:01

Leo 7. Interesting comments. I think I will take my chances with the virus…the parameters are clear…10% CFR and 10% chronic sequelae…

…give me the antibiotics and other medications I require to treat my family and I will take the 80 % odds instead.

Tom DVM – at 09:06

There are a number of things that should be kept in mind about the vaccine…and Tamiflu for that matter.

1) WHO IS PAYING FOR THE RESEARCH…see news thread yesterday about tamiflu.

2) the vaccine will not be avaliable for the first 6 months of the pandemic…and if it is avaliable sooner, it will be a completely untested experimental vaccine.

3) even if the vaccine works we are talking about 200 million people…dancing on the head of a pin rather than concentrating resources on antibiotics to prevent secondary infections and preventable deaths in young people…our collective future.

4) If they miscalculate and there are vaccine reactions…where are we to recieve treatment for Guillame Barre syndrome…not going to happen.

5) some times the cure is worse than the disease.

Average Concerned Mom – at 09:32

Tom or Leo will you please start a thread about the “seasonal flu vaccine” reports (may be 50% effective against pandemic flu…. in mice….)

I’m getting very confused. Especially about the conspiracy to sell more vaccine (regular, seasonal, I guess.) Wasn’t the author of the latest report that Webster guy who was quoted in AARP as saying “head for the hills” to ride out a pandemic? And then the next day he is annoucning in mice, regular flu shot appears to give mice some protection against H5N1? Are you saying that this same researcher has some vested financial interest in selling seasonal flu vaccine? Or could it be more of a societal interest — as in, we are trying to get as many people as possible to get the seasonal flu vaccine, just so there will be that many fewer cases of seasonal flu to contend with? And Tom what numbers are you talking about — 10% CFR and 10% chronic sequalia?

Monotreme – at 09:42

Just for the record, I have been getting vaccinated against the regular flu for the past several years and intend to do so again this year. I advise my family and friends to be vaccinated. The risk of Guillain-Barre is extremely low, if it exists at all. The regular flu kills 30,000 people every year. It is nearly as lethal in small children as it is in the elderly.

There are two issues which limit the regular flu’s effectiveness:

I believe there is a possibility that being vaccinated against regular flu will be partially protective against H5N1. I certainly wouldn’t count on it, but it’s worth a try.

Average Concerned Mom – at 09:51

Monotreme — in my opinion, the two greatest vectors for the spread of seasonal flu (and other viruses of course) over long distances (in the US at least) are

You know I am no expert but it seems to me we all have our nice, local germs all fall and then everyone gets on a plane, train or bus, or car, and rives all over the country, spends three to 7 days with extended family, swaps our town’s germs with their town’s germs, then gets back on the plane, train bus or car (stopping at many rest stops along the way) and shares what we got from their town with OUR town. The spread is just about complete when we all board up to do it again… for Christmas. It takes until about Februrary for this process to come to a peak, then starts to die down. Just a thought! (-:

Tom DVM – at 09:53

Average Concerned Mom.

The answers to many of your question are not avaliable and won’t be avaliable until collectively, as experimental subjects, we are vaccinated and then realeased into the ‘viral soup’…so to speak.

Things are a lot different in the scientific world of 2006 vs. 1979. There are two issues that you should keep in mind when reading conflicting research (ie. tamiflu on news thread yesterday: the first is ‘publish or perish’, some research is not there for its value but because you must ‘publish something…anything on a regular basis’. Secondly, who is paying for the research…interested parties fund research for their own purposes…they have the ability to buy the result they require…especially when there is an subjective component in the mix…kids and pneumonia for example.

I have read all of the research I can find on seasonal vaccine…my conclusion is that it doesn’t work for seasonal influenza…will it work for H5N1…unlikely…if that was the case then natural infection would have prevented all pandemics in the past and we have three or four or five per centuries for millennia.

I have read all the research I can find on Tamiflu…my conclusion is that it won’t work…in mild seasonal influenza, ‘resistance blooms’ rapidly occur every time it is used…that’s why influenza is the most successful pathogen that has every interacted with humans.

I have a great deal of respect for Dr. Webster…but that does not mean that I will agree with everything he says or does…

…I think we should assume that he is passing on experimental observations and making a ‘hopeful’ hypothesis to some sort of cross-specificity between pathogens and vaccines…

This has happened in the past…farmers and milk maidens noticed that after pseudocowpox or cowpox infections, they were immune to smallpox…I think grounds for a Nobel Prize. /:0)

If you want my personal opinion, I believe we are collectively grasping at straws…and should stockpile the drugs we know works, insultate the infrastructure and prepare communities for the worst…

…and I think we can manage this…but if they keep up the way they are carrying on…it will be anarchy unless H5N1 turns left in a hurry!

Thanks for the quotes thread /:0)

Tom DVM – at 09:59

Sorry, I missed one thing. My estimates for the pandemic are 10% CFR, 10% chronic life-limiting after-effects and 10% collateral deaths due to loss of infrastructure.

Leo7 – at 11:42

I didn’t suggest there was a conspiracy, I just recapped a class on sales theory. While seasonal flu vacc is in some places it’s not in my state yet. And if everyone gets the same message about it could protect against AF I’m suggesting there will be a shortage.

I believe Tom DVM “we’re grasping at straws” has some merit as well. There are threads here less than a year ago with people quoting news sources as seasonal flu may offer some protection, but not to count on it.

Goju:If the message chatter picks up that the seasonal flu is highly protective against AF your message will be lost as well. Be prepared for it when you present your next seminar.

anonymous – at 11:50

Leo7 – at 11:42

“And if everyone gets the same message about it could protect against AF I’m suggesting there will be a shortage.”

Leo are you assuming that the same people who are not prepping and don’t give a “hoot” about bird flu and a possible pandemic are going to even waste their time getting a flu shot just because it “cold protect against AF”?

I politely disagree. I don’t think the revelation about possible added protection against the pandemic is going to motivate a significant amount of people.

diana – at 12:09

I don’t think anything will motivate the American public. We are too damn comfortable. The public concentrates on things that don’t touch them. Silly fluff, scandles. Gosh almighty, Mel Geibson was drunk and offensive. Headlines. I heard about the chance of protection in getting a flu shot (We might have protection already from old flu shots for the N part of the virus) and I am getting mine on Friday. But I always get my flu shot. The people who always do this will, the people who don’t will take their chances as they always do and wont bother. It’s not important, like a scarce Cabbage Patch Doll was back in the 70′s. I even knew of a woman who flew to London to get one for her daughter.

Leo7 – at 12:10

Yes I do. It’s a cheap shot versus prep money or doing any of the other time intensive activities you can read about in the threads.

Feel free to disagree—I suggested on another thread that we have a somewhat patronizing attitude toward people who don’t prepare, study or prep for AF. Many here spend their dollars on prepping for them—I can’t imagine a less grateful group. I suggested they had brains and daily perform tasks of importance to the people here. They aren’t totally clueless or stupid—heck, most of them have been waiting for the great American think tank to kick in with the easiest and cheapest answer—it came on Friday. There will be a heavier demand for seasonal flu shot. Be sure to remind me if I was wrong say by December. I will eat crow smeared in Tack sauce!

Already MSM is referencing that one article and we’ll see a lot more about it. I also got that info tossed in my face last time I worked. People who read about it on the news tickers who were borderline preppers or debating whether to prep, probably canned the idea because it is expensive to do.

anonymous – at 12:20

Leo7 – at 12:10

Well said. The more MSM attention it gets, the more people will go after it.

EMTimat 13:48

It may also give people the idea that they can just wait until the last minute before doing anything. Just wait until they’re “sure” and then get the shot and hope it might help.

diana – at 17:55

Some people wait to the last minute on everything, Christmas shopping, bills, health issues of every sort. Perhaps there are more of them, than those who keep an eye on a lot of issues. Though the people I know who don’t prepare are intelligent people, more organized and prepared for many more fronts than I on this one issue. I belong to the last minute group, on some issues, but very hip and up on others than interest me. Perhaps it is that the avian flu is evolving in front of us. Of course by the virus’s standards, it has all the time in the world, while to the average person it is moving as slow as molasses,uphill in January.

Oremus – at 23:47

diana – at 17:55

Don’t forget taxes, I’m a midnight mailer there.

04 October 2006

Wolf – at 00:18

When I was a little kid, I had a bad reaction to vaccination. I could not walk after - and, as a child, believed I would never walk again. My brother carried me everywhere for days. My parents, I’m sure, never even considered the vaccine as a cause. When I went into the army, I had lots of vacs. Got sick. Not too bad. Then came Swine Flu vaccine. Mandatory. I fainted before crossing the street. Spent three days recovering Kept away from vaccines until I was primary caretaker for my Alzheimer’s mother. Got flu vac to ensure not to pass it to elderly mother (who had yearly flu vaccine and pneumovax regularly with no ill effects) Never got so sick in all preceding years as those. Scares me to pieces. Vacs nearly kill me - no jive. I don’t know what to do.

Dennis in Colorado – at 10:03

In another thread (can’t remember where) DennisC mentioned the “mystery illness” in Panama. ProMED emailed another alert about it this morning:
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N03219590.htm
Panama’s Health Ministry declared a national epidemic alert on Tuesday [3 Oct 2006] after a mystery illness killed at least 6 people and left others suffering with fever, diarrhea and partial paralysis.
Doctors do not know the cause but say the disease progresses rapidly to the renal system and causes neurological damage. Another 6 people may have died from it in the last month [September 2006].
“These symptoms are completely unusual, and have not been detected before in our country,” Panama’s health director, Cirilo Lawson, told Reuters.
Ten more people have been stricken but survived.
Doctors in the central Panama and Cocle provinces are taking samples from the affected people and seeking advice from abroad.

DennisCat 10:18

We have talked about the pig deaths in China. It looks like it is starting in S. India.

“Thiruvananthapuram, July 5 (IANS) Kerala’s Animal Husbandry Minister C. Divakaran Wednesday confirmed that pig fever had been diagnosed and was the cause of death of pigs at a private farm in Wayanad.This is believed to be the first reported case of the disease in the country.”

http://tinyurl.com/ls4es

DennisCat 10:23

I was looking at pigs and H5N1 and was supprised to find an old Feb, 2004 article. THEY have known for some time that Pigs could carry H5N1. I guess it was before my FluWiki days and just missed it.

Pigs Test Positive For Bird Flu

“Pigs in Vietnam have tested positive for the bird flu virus that has infected millions of poultry across Asia and killed 18 people…Nasal swabs taken from pigs have been positive for H5N1,” said Anton Rychener, Hanoi representative for the U.N. agency. “It continues to be under investigation and is of concern. We’ll be bringing in an expert.”

http://tinyurl.com/mp7ds

Medical Maven – at 10:36

Wolf at 00:18-Do you tend to not catch flus or colds? If that is the case, judging from your reaction to vaccinations, it may be that you will pass the panflu gauntlet with flying colors. Just a wild guess, IF you are one of those who never gets sick, otherwise.

Wolf – at 10:41

I tend not to catch flu or colds - is there a basis to think that would cause gauntlet passing abilities? (took the morning off - minor meltdown this end; might be the weather)

Are we there yet – at 10:42

DennisC – at 10:23

“I was looking at pigs and H5N1 and was supprised to find an old Feb, 2004 article. THEY have known for some time that Pigs could carry H5N1.”

Who is the THEY you are speaking about? TPTB in INdia? Vietnam?

TRay75at 10:51

I posted this on another thread about the seasonal flu shots, but it also fits the conversations here. I called for flu shots yesterday, and my MD’s office told me they only got half their order and are only doing high risk through November. They said check supermarkets, pharmacies, and county health for alternates. During the NJ Preparedness conference last week it was emphasised to get the vax this year. I thought there was no problem this year, largest supply in serveral years. Anyone else running into this?

DennisCat 10:52

Are we there yet – at 10:42

U.N. Food and Agricultural Organization as per article.

DennisCat 10:57

OH yes, and in the case of China: China’s Ministry of Agriculture

as per seperate Aug 2004 article: “Speaking at a conference last week, Chen Hualan from China’s Ministry of Agriculture said that the deadly strain of bird flu known as H5N1 was found in pigs at several Chinese farms in 2003 and 2004, including one in the Fujian province.”

http://tinyurl.com/eeneu

For some reason I was thinking that TPTB did not know that pigs could get H5N1 until recent events. But it looks like some in the UN and the various Ag departments of countries did know as early as 03,and 04. But remember I am posting here on the rumor page.

Leo7 – at 10:59

TRAY:

Shots are usually cheaper at the health department or personal MD they order x amount yearly and if they receive less than they ordered they move to triage which is what you ran across. Supermarkets and pharmacies will ask a higher price for their service but unless the store chain ordered a lot they too will run low, but its first come first served.

I think whoever came up with the idea to treat sick people where food is bought was a nutcase and wacko. There are enough sick people in stores now with out the added group sitting on the side lines waiting for service. Another invention to save the burning of one extra calorie. I won’t shop for food where sick people go for care. Please don’t advise me they aren’t sick, but there for prevention, wait till flu season and everyone wants a vaccine. Another reason to avoid last minute preps in these stores.

Milo – at 11:00

Medical Maven – at 10:36

Do some people never catch the flu (i.e. are some not very susceptible)? My great-grandfather never caught the 1918 flu, though everyone else in his family got sick (and one died). My father swears (jokingly) that he inherited this mythical family flu-resistance gene passed it on to me. And actually I’m not sure if I’ve ever caught seasonal flu. I can’t remember ever having the chills, aching, and headaches associated with flu. I catch colds, which sometimes develop into bronchitis, so I certainly get sick.

Of course, regardless of the possibility of this mythical flu-resistance gene, I’m going to take plenty of precautions if/when a pandemic hits us. My dad would be pissed if I proved him wrong.

Malachi – at 11:10

FYI Tray and others….I just called Kroger in regard to seasonal flu shots…They are 25.00 or free for medicare reciepiants and only available to those 14 and over(Leaving my 4 kids out)Health Dept. will not have the vax until Nov or Dec….Strange that the store can offer it now but the health dept cant.I guess I will try at the docs office.

JV – at 11:42

Malachi -

Many drug stores offer flu shots to children too. Don’t just stop your search with Kroger. Call around to drug stores. There will be big differences in the rules they follow. The one right down the street from me (8 blocks away at most) will give them to children. I don’t know their exact age cut off. My son has received the flu shot for the last few years.

cottontop – at 11:49

I read in my local paper last month that there would be enough flu shots to go around this year. I thought to myself, “that will be a first”. this morning while daughter and I were waiting on the bus, our local radio station announced that there is a flu shot shortage, and more will not be in until the end of nov. and into dec., but that grocery stores and drug stores are giving flu shots, first come first serve. I knew it was too good to be true! Was wondering if other states were having the same “flu shot shortage”?

OKbirdwatcherat 12:33

Leo7 -

“Another reason to avoid last minute preps in these stores.”

I hope (after one more prep run) to avoid the stores altogether this cold/flu season. If you think about it, they’re just nasty, germ-infested places, period. Especially during this time of year. My DH will still be going off to work and maybe bringing germs home, but I think limiting exposure to all kinds of crud by avoiding the stores, can’t hurt.

Commonground – at 12:38

OKbirdwatcher - at 12:33 - that’s my plan also. Just make a run once a week at a local corner store for milk. I’m going to start eating all my preps this winter. Might as well. Next Spring - I’ll start all over again, if need be.

Dennis in Colorado – at 12:59

I would love to think that being one of those people who “never get sick” will be a great advantage during a pandemic. I confirmed with my HR department: in the six years I have worked for this company, the only “sick” time I have taken has been for scheduled eye surgeries and dental appointments. Maybe that is an indication that I have an active cytokine response to any microbial threat (in which case I might fare worse under a novel viral invasion) but I am happy with my current state of health and I hope it bodes well for the future.

Commonground – at 13:09

Dennis in Colorado - you do know that just because you said that…….well. You know what I was gonna say!!! :-)

Medical Maven – at 13:14

Dennis in Colorado at 12:59-From what I have read if you can stop the rapid viral replication you can most probably avoid the cytokine reaction. I think that is where your safety lies and the safety of all of the rest of you “lucky few” out there.

But I will also predict that months of stress, physical and mental, will break down the defenses of the most genetically-enabled of us.

And I will also predict that those of us on the cusp of old age will become “old” overnight, that photo snapshots of us “ before and after” will be like night and day.

Dennis in Colorado – at 13:52

Medical Maven – at 13:14 And I will also predict that those of us on the cusp of old age will become “old” overnight…

I am not sure how you define “cusp of old age” but I will acknowledge that I was in middle school during the Cuban Missile Crisis <grin>.

Medical Maven – at 14:10

Dennis in Colorado at 13:52: Anybody from forty through sixty-five years of age would qualify, depending on whether they had already “crossed-over” due to circumstances specific to their genetic heritage and lifestyle.

Studies have consistently shown that “several year” bouts of extreme physical and mental stress can accelerate the aging process such that on average somebody of the same chronological age as you could be biologically up to eleven years older if he had been “through the wringer” and you had not.

NYC MOM – at 15:26

I have thought about where to post this or even to post it at all. I guess it would fit on the rumors page.

My son recently went to see a highly regarded specialist in Infectious Disease in NYC. While he was there he asked him about his take on the pandemic. The Doctor told him that he believes it will happen and that the mutations are appearing right on track to make this go H2H in a big way and that it will happen everywhere in a day or 2. He then told him that it will appear in just about every mammal at the same time based on his information. He said that even if you shelter in the woods you won’t be able to avoid it because it will be carried by chipmunks, mice, squirrels, etc.

I hope someone here can poke some holes in this dire warning.

This fellow is probably up the chain high enough to have participated in the NYC pandemic planning which is viewed by many to be a kind of a ‘we can’t do anything so let’s do nothing’ approach.

highdesetAZ – at 15:44

Wolf 00:18 You brought back my memory of getting a shot in my thigh (vaccine) as a kid and not being able to walk for days. They said the nurse must have hit a nerve, but that doesn’t make sense thinking about it now. I’ll bet it was the vaccine too. I don’t get the seasonal flu shots even tho I work in the school system, but am generally very healthy.

JWB – at 15:55

NYC MOM – at 15:26

and that it will happen everywhere in a day or 2. He then told him that it will appear in just about every mammal at the same time

Doubt that. Sounds impossible.

But perhaps years from now, the story we’ll tell will include this, “…and it seemed to happen everywhere overnite. As if every mammal at the same time….’‘

Leo7 – at 16:03

Well if any doctor would know the scoop it would be an ID especially in NTC. I wish experts like him/her would get more verbal.

diana – at 16:19

From this series in the N.J. Star Ledger it sounds like we won’t just have Avian Flu to contend with. One man came back from Africa with Lassa fever and died. It can be spread by a cough or a sneeze or any exchange of bodily fluids for the length of time the person shows symptoms. He came in contact with hundreds of people on three continents during the 48 hours of traveling and being hospitalized.This was back in 2004 and the story that ensued could well be that of anyone carrying an infectious disease.There are only 18 quarentine stations for 317 U.S. points of entry. All but one close by 6:30 on weekdays. Fourteen are not open on weekdays. Identifying passengers who come in contact with an infected individual is problematic. Evidently 188 people came into contact the N.J. man who died of Lassa fever. 139 Health Care workers came into contact with him. That astonished me.The CDC does not have electronic access to airline records, and most airlines purge flight manifests from their computers within 48 hours of arrival. Prompted by this the CDC asked Congress to mandate airlines to maintain manifest for at least two weeks. Their request is under review. This is all from this series in the Star Ledger. There are 3000 local health departments in the U.S. and no standard national requirement for disease reporting. They also have fragmented or nonexistent telecommunications capabilities. Tuesday Oct 4. 2006. Newark Star Ledger series. New Jersey.

diana – at 16:21

Should have proofread this. Fourteen quarentine stations are not open on weekends.

OKbirdwatcherat 16:22

Medical Maven at 13:14 - That very thing had occurred to me awhile back and now that you have reminded me of it, I’m even more depressed:( And that post by NYC MOM didn’t help much either.

Medical Maven – at 16:24

Leo7 at 16:03-“I wish experts like him/her would get more verbal”.

What! And lose their reputaion for being level-headed, cool assessors of any situation. To be tagged an alarmist in professional circles is also to be labeled a “loser”. I fear that Europe may be hit worse because I think that attitude is even more pronounced over there.

Jane – at 16:32

HighdesetAZ, when I was a kid I had a whooping cough shot in my thigh and could hardly walk. It looked like I was a well-behaved girl, because I was the only kid not running around like mad at my aunt and uncle’s wedding reception. ;)

Leo7 – at 16:43

MM: LOL for now because it’s true. Too bad, Diana doesn’t understand that disease takes a holiday every weekend. We have the hospital staffing schedules to prove it.

DennisCat 17:28

about Panama, They still don’t know what it is:

“Doctors working at the Gorgas Commemorative Institute are continuing to work to identify the agent that has killed at least 15 people of the 22 it has infected and have ruled out several known infections such as Dengue, Influenza, Nile Virus, Encephalitis, or Enterovirus. “

http://tinyurl.com/fll9t

crfullmoon – at 18:13

What kind of testing methods, done when, for what kind of influenza, were they using we wonders?

Lisa in Southern Maine – at 19:11

NYC MOM - “He then told him that it will appear in just about every mammal at the same time”…well, according to monotreme’s list on http://tinyurl.com/mpqf7, these animals have been h5n1+ - birds, tigers, leopard, cats, dogs, stone marten, ferrets, civet, pigs, mouse, rat, monkeys, humans. Possibly many mammals are carrying the virus right now, see part 6 of same thread. Sounds like he’s talking about a trigger point/explosion or saturation point…wish I had verblogy of virology, but you know what I’m trying to decribe in my poor lay-terms, right? Maybe he’s not so far off the mark, if he’s identifying a tipping point as multiple mammalian species infection to pot boiling over. I imagine it could be like an explosion, and once it explodes we know it will travel rapidly, assisted by the airlines. Anyway, your synopsis of his warning to your son sounded familiar, and possible, to me.

diana – at 19:30

No link, but there is a new drug being developed for seasonal and avian flu which can be given safely in high doses. It is in experimental trial. BioCryst pharmaceuticals Inc. Called Peramivir.It is in fast track status.

06 October 2006

Commonground – at 15:28

What about a connection between these three pieces of news posted today? H5N1 found in Pigs tested in Indo., spot inspections for beef and pork, and the last article stating no wild bird connection and it could be through the livestock.
1. http://tinyurl.com/l6gkw
October 06 2006 | 12:59 WIB
The Interactive TIME, Denpasar: Tim the Medical Faculty the Udayana University Animal found proof that the virus avian influenza (AI) spread to the pig in Bali. This bird flu virus was carried out by the research in the scale that wider to see the condition for the spread of this virus. The AI findings to the starting pig from the student’s research that diagnosed several pigs that were sick to May-June 2006. From 20 pigs, two among them positive was infected by the virus H5N1. “The pig livestock was in Gianyar and Tabanan,” said I Gusti Ngurah Mahardika, the faculty’s medical lecturer the university, on Friday. The developing virus to the pig was sick and could not be cured by getting the series of medical treatment. After being operated on had reddish signs in the network of the spleen. By making use of technology imono histokimia was seen that the red sign was the virus that was in the network of the pig. But the virus H5N1 was not found in the network of the animal body. The “possibility of his virus only numpang lewat or was acknowledged as the virus that oportunistik,” said Mahardika. The discovery was not yet published as the scientific study, but has been sent to the Balinese Livestock Breeding Service as the warning to be guarded against. ‘’‘The spread of the virus, according to Mahardika, really dimungkinkan because of the pattern of the poultry farm and the duck free entered the pigsty’‘’. The possibility of the virus tertular through food or the waste of the animal. In Bali was gotten by approximately ’900 thousand pigs‘ that the coexistence with other livestock.

2. http://tinyurl.com/lod5x
Wonogiri (KR) - traders the Wonogiri City Market complain about quiet him the buyer in the biggest market followed the development of two their respective supermarkets Flexible and New Wonogiri that his location off the city market. Now, by the Lebaran day was not found by the indication of the entry of beef glonggongan and forest pork (celeng) as well as the import rice to Wonogiri so as the community might not be restless. This matter was expressed in the sudden inspection (the surprise inspection) as well as the Regent’s interview Wonogiri Begug Poernomosidi with the market traders, yesterday. Acknowledged by the regent, his side must spread out the surprise inspection following the brightness of rumours of beef glonggongan and meat celeng, the import rice outside the area in recent times. “By doing the verification as early as possible we could immediately take the firm attitude if indeed these rumours cleared Wonogiri, but evidently up until now by this public holiday was still safe,” said Begug.

3. Posted at CE http://menkokesra.go.id/content/view/1539/39
“There were three groups or sublineage the virus H5N1 in Indonesia, namely the A type, B, and C. in Sumatra only was found by the C type, in NTT and Sulawesi the A type and B, but in Java all the types were found,” he said in the Journalist Scientific Gathering that was spread out of National Geographc Indonesia in Jakarta, on Thursday (5/10)
Almost in all the cases of bird flu was found to the livestock.Whereas to wild birds, up until now was not yet any proof that showed the bird flu attack.
Results of the research that was carried out by Indonesian Ornithologist the Union in the South Yogyakarta Coast and Indramayu also showed that the migration of birds was not yet proven played a role in the spreading of the virus H5N1 in Indonesia.
The “research into thousands of migrant birds in China South, Malaysia, and Vietnam also showed same results,” said the Researcher from Raptor Indonesia Wishnu Sukmantoro.
Proof of the virus attack H5N1 to wild birds quite proven in the USA, but the same condition not necessarily happened in Indonesia.
This showed that the spreading of bird flu possibly through the livestock that was traded in interregional,” said Wayan.Could become also from the trade in the illegal livestock international that not through the process of quarantine.

NIdahoat 15:54

I find it interesting that the Red Cross in now trying to train volunteers for a Pandemic possibility. I receive weekly emails from them and training the volunteers seems to be getting allot of attention now.

heddiecalifornia – at 16:21

Dennis C at yesterday — Panama — Possibly could this be a Hanta virus? I recall reading/hearing about or in a science channel program somewhere that in addition to the type of virus prevalent in the Western United States in deer mice, that rapidly and fatally affects the lungs, there is another type of hanta virus found in Norwegian rats on the east coast (Boston Area) that is mild but long acting and attacks the kidneys of host humans.

Average Concerned Mom – at 16:27

Nidaho — I find that interesting as well. A few months ago I asked (on the fluwiki) about the red cross and whether they’d be offering some kind of pandemic related home nursing training and was informed by someone (anonymous I believe?) who said he/she worked for the Red Cross and that there were courses ready but that the red cross was waiting until there was a pandemic before starting to offer the training. This poster said he/she was trying hard to get that idea changed, to have the classes offered before there was a pandemic.

What kind of courses are you seeing?

heddiecalifornia – at 16:27

Have been home sick with a head cold, and got to watch a Discovery or Nat’l Geographic channel program on ‘the solar maximum.’

Really dramatic program about how mega sun flares with reverse polarity could literally destroy the world wide power grid and blow out all the available transformers, leaving the world without electricity for literally YEARS if not handled properly.

The scenario they paint is pretty grim; there are some ways to alleviate problems if power companies are prepared to react on short notice. But I really like that they put the problem ‘out there’ for people to think about how bad it really could get.

Next Maximum occurs in 2011, but flares really can occur at any time. I recommend if you see it in the listings to watch it! Will make explaining pandemic worst case problem a lot easier.

cottontop – at 16:57

This is just a thought, but the middle east has been hit pretty hard with the bird flu, and we have lots and lots of soldiers stationed throught out the middle east. What I was thinking, is should this this virus mutate “over there”, could they bring it home to us? Do they all make the stop over in Germany before heading back to the states?

gr8greens – at 17:45

Cottontop-at 16:57

Good question. Actually, Asia is where most Avian flu activity is being recorded. But it’s not much of a leap for this very disasterous flu to migrate to the ME. It’s very possible/probable our brave military could carry it home with them.

This is EXACTLY what happened in 1918. A wicked good read….”The Great Influenza” by John M Barry.

07 October 2006

Bird Guano – at 02:41

Leo7

I won’t shop for food where sick people go for care. Please don’t advise me they aren’t sick, but there for prevention, wait till flu season and everyone wants a vaccine. Another reason to avoid last minute preps in these stores.


Then you should see how the food is handled by the stockers, and the sick employees sneezing and coughing all over the produce during cold/flu season.

Petticoat Junction – at 03:12

TRay75 – at 10:51 ….my MD’s office told me they only got half their order and are only doing high risk through November. They said check supermarkets, pharmacies, and county health for alternates…..I thought there was no problem this year, largest supply in serveral years. Anyone else running into this?

TRay, there was a piece about this on NPR Friday. Seems the big box stores/pharmacies are being sent the vax supplies before the private dr’s offices/health depts, etc. Profits at work, apparently.

I found a link to the article here

Reader – at 04:39

DennisC – at 10:18 We have talked about the pig deaths in China. It looks like it is starting in S. India.

“Thiruvananthapuram, July 5 (IANS) Kerala’s Animal Husbandry Minister C. Divakaran Wednesday confirmed that pig fever had been diagnosed and was the cause of death of pigs at a private farm in Wayanad.This is believed to be the first reported case of the disease in the country.”

This is the same area in India where most of the people are dying.

NawtyBitsat 11:11

Possible bird flu to come out in Minnesota, but confirmation is pending.

I have no further info, so don’t ask.

nawty

Bird Guano – at 12:51

They are blaming the California bird deaths on botulism, even though the test was H5N1 low path positive.

Anon_451 – at 15:40

NawtyBits – at 11:11 Human or brid case?

cottontop – at 18:17

we’ve been focusing so much on Asia, that it is important to realize that the jump from animal to human can occur from anywhere in the world. why does it necessiarly have to come from asia?

LA Escapee – at 18:26

I went to Costco today and got my flu shot. They don’t seem to care who you are, just don’t be sick or they won’t give it to you. It’s an outside company doing the shots. On the table, there was a small brochure from Costco, “Preparing for Pandemic Influenza.”

Some highlights: They mention people would have no immunity to a pandemic flu and there is no vaccine. Also: “Hundreds of thousands in our country could get sick and many could die.” “It may be difficult to get medical care.” “You may be asked to stay away from others.” “Events may be canceled, and theaters and schools closed.” “It will take months to develop a vaccine.” “Medicine for flu symptoms may be in short supply.” “Travel may be difficult…gasoline may be in short supply.” “You may be asked to wear a mask.” “A flu pandemic could last a long time. The 1918 flu pandemic lasted 18 months. In some cases, pandemics weaken for a while and then recur.” Somebody’s been reading about the 1918 pandemic.

What to do? Have food that doesn’t require refrigeration and water for “at least one week.” Have cash, pet supplies, and trash bags, since trash pickup may be disrupted. “Be prepared to get by for at least a week on what you have at home. Stores may not be open or have limited supplies.” They give the web addresses for pandemicflu.gov, cdcgov/flu/pandemic, and World Health Organization at who.int. For this being only six small pages, front and back, it’s pretty good, except for the “only one week” part. Even there, if you’re paying attention, you could read between the lines and know that one week is probably not going to do it. Somebody put a lot of work into this.

I did ask the flu shot nurse there about pandemic flu, and she literally did not answer me. Just sat there silently until I changed the subject. No idea what that means.

Ghost – at 18:42

New Rumor

The Ghost of Posters’ Past: Act 1 Scene 1:

Serious Wikians sit in a dark room smoking cigarettes; all is lost. “We are done for” says one - “My preps count for nothing” says another. Meanwhile, over at ‘God did we really start this? Towers’, the moderators drink yet more wine and mull over the serious debate that could have been. Instead, the “Oh my, yet another trolling offence, how dare they disagree with me” or “let’s guess just how soon and how bad a pandemic will be” thread starts and the mods fall into a silent slumber. Those that used to give sage advice slowly fall into a slumber that can only be broken by the kiss of a p…….

Monotreme – at 20:09

Newer Rumor

Somewhere at a secret meeting of Bird Flu Deniers Anonymous…2 years in the future

MS, TG and several others, all dressed in rags, sit huddled over a fire of burning tires in an abandoned alleyway, nursing old, stale beers.

TG: “Why did I listen to you?” MS: “Because you don’t know anything about science” TG: “You don’t either” MS: “Of course not. I was just trying to sell a book. I didn’t think anyone would take what I said seriously. I mean, jeez, people go on radio shows and say all kinds of crazy things.” TG: “Yeah, well, apparently alot of people bought your nonsense” MS: “That was their fault. There was ample scientific data supporting the idea that serious preparations should have been made. Many eminent scientists warned that a severe H5N1 pandemic was a real possibility.” TG: “Well, the only people who listened to them was about 5,000 Fluwikians. ‘My audience is much bigger. OK, correction, my audience was much bigger. They’re mostly dead now.” MS: “Hey, I’ll trade you one of my books for that beer you’ve got.” TG: “Go take a flying f…”

NawtyBitsat 21:48

Anon-451,

Don’t know. Assuming bird.

Medical Maven – at 22:19

Newest Rumor

DARPA really started this site, and all of the founders are cyber-creations. It was a slow day at the office and part of their “black budget” needed to be spent. DARPA keeps it chugging along for laughs, but they are really tiring of the probability threads.

Monotreme – at 22:40

Medical Maven – at 22:19

Actually, you’re not too far from the truth. Fluwiki is the best substitute for the Jasons we now have.

Dark Horse – at 22:44

I wonder if MS is Dr. Marc Siegal, author of a book on bird flu (Just wash your hands) and expert on various things like quitting smoking and exercise and other pop subjects. I just love it when a family doctor becomes an expert on H5N1. I also wonder if he remembers what the Italians did to Mussolini after the war. If I were the good doctor, I’d move out of New York. Hanging upside down is most uncomfortable.

I wonder who TG is……

Medical Maven – at 22:46

Monotreme at 22:40-LOL DARPA is really slumming, if we replaced that bunch of elite scientists. : )

Centex – at 22:56

Hi Guys - I am feeling really lucky: I now have gotten my entire family and my good friend and coworker immunized pneumovax and flu shots. Wow, that alone is a good feeling!

Monotreme – at 23:06

Dark Horse – at 22:44

Here is a hint.

TG: Should I prepare emergency supplies of food and water just in case?

MS: Absolutely not.

08 October 2006

Walrus – at 18:34

I read that article, and its based on a false premise - that the Government will save us all.

The reality is that even if the Government wanted to save us all, it doesn’t have one iota of the necessary resources.

Furthermore, in a pandemic, the Governments aim is to save the Government, not us. Unless we are emergency services workers, we wil be requested to stay home and die quietly in our own beds. Medical facilities will be swamped and unavailable anyway. Thats what the government doesn’t want to talk about.

10 October 2006

anon mc – at 02:31

Bump.

anon mc – at 02:33

Hoping for FrenchieGirl or Madamspinner to stop by…

crfullmoon – at 08:57

TG is too smart to listen to MS!

Tom DVM – at 09:05

/:0)

Bluebonnet – at 09:16

Latest rumor from another site I read:

“Bird flu tested positive (non-path)in almost the entire northern half of USA and almost all of Canada. Minnesota was brought up as an area where alot has been found. All this is being hushed up. The reason being is the “general populace doesnt understand the different strains of bird flu. They only hear bird flu and assume the worse.” So suppressed information.

TB and bird flu is a dangerous combination and I have posted about the bird flu mutating with these other diseases for months. This was the fear of my contacts about BF in Africa. AIDS, BF, and TB. Now the stories are appearing in the news the past couple weeks of people with AIDS are dieing faster of TB now. They are developing TB as a secondary infection to “flu like symptoms” in Africa.”

This is what NawtyBits referred to above.

cottontop – at 10:12

I’m glad the states are testing. Finding the non lethal N5H1 is normal in wild birds. It’s finding that “one” that tests positive for the potient strain, is what keeps me on the edge of my seat.

Jewel – at 10:29

Medical Maven

Regarding your post awhile back about the effects of stress and aging - Abraham Lincoln is a classic example of this, just compare pictures of him pre- and post- Civil War.

stilearning – at 13:09

Would you rather be pretty and dead?

pine ridge – at 18:47

This is more of a question/speculation, but it fits best here on the rumors thread.

I have a 5 month old kitten, she is inside/outside as she pleases. Miss kitty killed her first bird last Friday (a mourning dove). Saturday she didn’t come in, even after dark so I went and got her. She acted very tired, but I figured she was worn out from playing & stalking butterflies. Sunday she slept all day, but did get up to eat. Monday she was doing better, but has a large lump on her neck (? I did not see any wound, sting, bite, etc) She still wasn’t very active, but eating and walking around much more. Today she was in the kitchen and sneezed while I was getting her fresh water….she sneezed out blood.

Miss kitty is now locked in a room in the basement (with her kitty things of course) and I have heard her sneeze several more times. Today is the first time I heard her sneeze.

Someone please tell me that mourning doves can not get/carry/transmit BF. And that the symptoms in cats are totally different, or that these symptoms are a common sign of *anything* else.

Anon_451 – at 18:50

pine ridge – at 18:47 Sounds like you need to take Ms Kitty to your vet for a check up, IMHO

dc – at 18:50

PLEASE take Miss Kitty to the vet. Birds do carry west nile and it is very active in the fall.

Nova – at 18:50

Get her to a vet now! It’s unlikely it’s BF. More likely it’s something easily curable with medical care.

Nova – at 18:52

PS. My dog was sneezing out blood recently and it was a horrible sinus infection that antibiotics cured. Left untreated the vet said it might have affected her brain.

Mamabird – at 19:03

cottontop – at 10:12

I not certain that finding H5N1 in North America is “normal”. Until rather recently (last two years), no reports of H5N1 at all for almost two decades. So, this is a fairly new and disturbing phenomina. Why?

Because, if this variety of H5N1 gets into a domestic flock of chickens, it will likely go High Path within an extremely short time. That seems to be the history of all H5 and H7 subtypes. USDA press releases should give no comfort at all. Isn’t it interesting that USDA has not released any of the H5N1 sequences that are now available, and have not published any of their test results related to pathogenicity, and have not devulged details of any of the avian influenza subtypes found during the Alaskan surveilance.

Americans can not be smug that H5N1 is an Asia problem. It’s here and can be just as dangerous as Qinghai if we are not extremely diligent. If you really wish to remain on the edge of your seat, do some research on the number of backyard and non biosecure chicken farms we have in the USA. All open targets for the Low Path H5N1 to take hold.

Petticoat Junction – at 19:42

OK, not a rumor, but something that just popped up on tv. My kids have the Disney channel on, which is thankfully rather unusual, lol. Anyway, I think the show is Raven something…”That’s So Raven,” the girls tell me. The main character is the little girl from the Cosby show, all grown up.

At any rate, what caught my attention was the phrase ‘emergency preparedness.’ I whirled around to the tv in time to see Maria Shriver doing a cameo of herself. The entire episode is about her coming to Raven’s school (?) to make a video about Emergency Preparedness and to remind everybody how important it was for every family to have a plan.

What was that on the other thread about trying to reach the parents through the kids???

Petticoat Junction – at 19:46

Now the main family is going through their emerg prep kit….flashlight, water, scissors, extra clothes….and talking about having surprise drills to practice their family disaster plans so they can “leave in a moment’s notice.”

It’s all practically word for word off the Red Cross type sites. I don’t know if this makes me feel better or is giving me the willies.

Some boy band also just showed up as surprise guests, but I’m not hip enough to know who they are.<g> Looks like they’re working hard to get the kids’ attention with this episode.

cottontop – at 19:59

I based my statement, “the non-lethal N5H1 is normal in wild birds”, based on what I have read. Example, from a Reuters article, “The low pathogenic avian influenza virus commonly occurs in nature, but usually results in minor sickness or no noticeable disease for birds.”

Now I don’t know if migratory birds are tested on a regular basis, but this is the first I have heard of birds here in the states being tested. It makes me think that they have not been testing if “up until two years ago”, no reports of even the non-lethal H5N1 has been reported.

That is why they are testing. It is apart of out nations surveilance of the migratory birds. And yes, it has been found here as early as Feb, 24, 2004, in Gonzales County, in South Texas, on a chicken farm

Mamabird – at 20:21

cottontop – at 19:59

Just an FYI. The Gonzalez event was H5N2, not H5N1. Big difference, especially when you look at the gene sequences. Although even this H5 subtype is know to have moved toward High Path when it got into local chickens.

But as to H5N1, we have early 1980 sequences from Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan, etc. and surveilance has been on going, to a lesser extent than today, for a very long time. Unless we take the posittion that every research institute and university has been hidding something, H5N1 is just not normally found in North American fowl, wild or domestic. It has been, until the Monitoba ducks, a rare event. MSM, like Reuters, is not considered a hot bed of scientific knowledge about the history of avian influenza, so they have to rely on USDA, CDC, WHO and others for information. Those entities have great scientists, but unfortunately not very credible PR personnel.

FluWikians need solid information to prepare and lead, and I know we are all attempting to move in that direction.

Mamabird – at 20:43

cottontop – at 19:59

Sequence-----------------------------HA Accension No.-----M1 Accension No.---NS1/NS2 Accension No.

A/mallard/Wisconsin/428/1975(H5N1)------U79453-------------------------------------U85380

A/duck/Minnesota/1525/81(H5N1)---------AF082040

A/gull/Pennsylvania/4175/83(H5N1)------AF082043-------------DQ107466

A/mallard/Ohio/184/86(H5N1)---------------N/A

The above are the known H5N1 sequences in North Am. The Manitoba duck sequences of November 2005 have not been released by the Canadians, nor have the Prince Edward Island sequences, if they ever exited. Further, the USDA has not released any of the sequences of the more recent 2006 USA detections of H5N1.

So, H5N1 is not a new phenomina, just a rare one in North America, despite continuous surveilance over the last several decades. I will add however, that European Low Path H5N1 avian sequences look awfully close to North American varieties, so sharing between continents should be expected to some extent. The recent discoveries of H5N1 in the USA should get everyone’s attention, and we should be less than understanding for the lack of information from USDA.

Mamabird – at 21:33

Go to the FluWiki Home Page, and then look at the site links listed on the far right. About the fifth item down is the National Surveilance Program site. Click on it if you will, and note the double stared note about all the avian virus found to date. No High Path H5N1 found in any of the samples.

What they have never said is that “no Low Path H5N1 was found”.

Rumor is H5N1 is all over the place and that is why USDA used its emergency powers to change its rules to allow for reimbursement to farmers for the culling of their domestic flocks.

Expect more news releases from USDA on Friday or Saturday. They are wary of announcing anything during the middle of the week. They are scratching their heads as to how they can spin the news that the Low Path H5N1 has mutated to High Path in our homeland.

tjclaw1 – at 21:42

“They are scratching their heads as to how they can spin the news that the Low Path H5N1 has mutated to High Path in our homeland.”

Will they tell us when it is High path, or if they do, spin it that it is not the “Asian” high path H5N1, rather it is the “North American” high path H5N1?Even if it is not High Path, everyone should still be concerned that it may turn High Path. In the past, didn’t this country cull all low path outbreaks? Why haven’t we heard of any culling? If the wild birds have low path H5N1, surely some domestic poultry has it too, as well as pigs. Anybody stopped buying poultry or pork yet? How is it that beef doesn’t get infected?

cottontop – at 21:49

Geeez, did I just get a scolding from mamabird?

First, the press release from the newspaper that I have, did not state that it was H5N2. It stated, “The highly contagious strain, found in Gonzales County in South Texas,poses little threat to people, said Dr. Nancy Cox of the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.” I was trying to point out, that a strain of avian bird flu has already been found here in the states, two years ago.

I also simply stated that it’s good to hear they are testing the migratory birds. That’s what we need. I have only been talking about the low pathogenic avian influenza virus in wild birds.

Many of us really knew anything about what we are discussing here tonight, and many of us have learned a great deal, which had prompted up to investigate and learn even more. I had no idea birds were tested, had no idea about how many strains of influenza there are, didn’t know which strain was deadly to humans and which wasn’t. I have learned from reading as much as I can, listening to the good people here, asking questions and learning from the responses. If I throw something out there that is totaly wrong, I expect to be corrected, but in a very polite way, as we all expect to be treated here. Sorry if this seems rough, but I felt you were a little too earger to put me in my place. I’m a newbie to this situation, and I’m still learning.

Mamabird – at 21:59

tjclaw1 – at 21:42

Culling is a very expensive and radical event, and therefore, normally done with High Path, not Low Path avian influenza detected in domestic flocks. The 1983 Pennsylavania event entailed the culling of millions of chickens over a twelve month period. The 2004 Gonzalez event only entailed 6,600 chickens and the disinfection of live bird markets in Houston. Both instances involved H5 subypes that reflected multi-basic amino acids at the HA cleavage site. I’m not aware of other significant culling events, which makes sense since the Gonzalez event was the first detection of High Path AI in over twenty years.

Please be aware that in vitro and in vivo testing seems to indicate that this mutation of Low Path into High Path through the acquistion of multi-basic amino acids at the cleavage site occurs quite rapidly in chickens once infected. As soon as we see this happen, culling will begin in earnest in USA for any chicken or other domesitc fowl found with this virus. This rapid mutation was documented in Pennsylvania when the Low Path virus detected in April of 1983 turned High Path in October. The only significant changes to the genetic sequences was at the HA cleavage site.

tjclaw1 – at 21:59

cottontop – at 21:49 First of all, welcome. Second, I don’t think momabird meant to scold you (at least I hope not). We are learning, and some here are more knowledgable than others. I don’t understand all of the scientific terminology and don’t profess to.

You made a good point. I also did not know that migratory birds were tested prior to this year when I first started learning about H5N1. All of the scientific data can be very confusing to us lay persons.

Again, welcome, and thanks for participating here. We can all learn from each other.

On the fence and leaning – at 22:02

This is all very scientificky but I can’t stop thinking of poor little Mr. Kitty, locked in a basement coughing blood. (Pine Ridge at 6:47) I have the sniffles right now so I am going to avoid that house! :-)

Mamabird – at 22:09

cottontop – at 21:49

If anyone needs scolding, it is I for being so abrupt and to the point. Please accept my deepest apologies if I have offended, because that was certainly not my intent. I’m not known for being the most diplomatic of people when it comes to the news media reporting on Bird Flu.

Like you, I’m here to help in any way I can. Please let me know if you have any questions, and I will do my best to be responsive and polite at the same time. Your views and opinions are valuabe to this membership and we need to keep the dialog going.

Pax?

cottontop – at 22:28

Mamabird-

Hey, no hard feeling, really. In learning, we make mistakes, and learn. And my goodness, am I glad I found you people. I’ve only been posting for a few weeks now, and I have learned so much. There are people out their who know so much, and I’m sure they get frustrated in trying to convey an idea to us newbies. You are probably one of those people. Bear with me, mamabird, and we’ll get through this(If I learn half as much as you good folks, I have a chance!) It’s nice to meet you.

Mamabird – at 22:32

The following link gives just one example of the avian influenza surveillance that has routinely being going on in this country over the last couple of decades:

“Ohio Expert Keeps Watch for Deadly Avian Flu”

http://cmib.osu.edu/article.cfm?id=2316

Unlike the USDA, the University of Ohio seems to be more than willing to share information with us lowly peons. Since they have found virtually no H5N1, its recent appearance is a wake up call for diligent fluwikians.

cottontop – at 22:49

If they do find a bird that test positive, how soon do you think they will tell us? Can a prediction be made as to where they think it might show up first?

Mamabird – at 23:07

cottontop – at 22:49

It will likely play out in some form like the following:

Small domestic farmer notices that his chicken egg production has suddenly dropped.

Over the next couple of days, some the birds look sick and are staggering about.

Farmer calls the local vet and the investigation begins, but the vet is accutely aware of the potential for this being an avian virus, so he has a rapid test for H5 and H7 influenza subtypes performed locally.

Bingo, the birds test positive for H5, but the NA subtype is still unknown. It will probably not matter, as now chickens are dieing rapidly. The ranch is quarantined, culling is immediately begun. Everything in the area is disinfected by teams of personnel in full biogear. In the meantime, the Atlanta, GA labs are performing PCR on virus samples available from the farm. The length of the isolate tells them its High Path. Actual sequencing of the virus will come later.

Immediately, surrounding farms are quarantined and birds are rapidly being tested, and some may be culled as well to contain the spread. And of course, news leaks out to the community that something’s going on. Rumors are flying about. USDA must now comment to prevent panic.

So, from initial chickens getting noticebly sick until the news hits the fan, say appromixately one week.

No one really knows what will happen next, but most countries will completely shut down the import of our chicken products and that portion of the US economy will tank. No longer will H5N1 be someone else’s problem.

2beans – at 23:07

Pineridge at 18:47:

An abcessed bite wound will make a lump and it can be hard to find the entry point. Take kitty to the vet.

cottontop – at 23:35

One week. Man that’s quick. Do vets have to report every disease they encounter, even if it a “mild” disease? My husban’s family had a large dairy farm for many years, and I think the vet reported scours, and such.

11 October 2006

anonymous – at 17:49

22:32 Ohio Expert Richard Slemons has found avian influenzas routinely in the last 30 years. Some have been H5N1.

A previous thread that discusses same issues and interesting comments: North American Governments Accountability. http://www.fluwikie2.com/pmwiki.php?n=Forum.NorthAmericanGovernmentsAccountability

http://wildlife1.usask.ca/en/aiv/dead_bird_list.php - Dead bird avian influenza survey - 2,010 entries, every species imaginable: 730 Unknown, 86 AI Positive, 61 Pending, the rest Negative and Inconclusive.

http://wildlife1.usask.ca/en/aiv/aiv_reports.php - Canadian Cooperative Wildlife Health Centre Wild Bird Survey. From last winter and no longer available. Reposted from North American Governments thread:

Avian Influenza H5 Subtype Analysis

Alberta, 796 samples, information not available

Atlantic, 717 samples, 35 H5 positive, confirmed subtype: Low Pathogenic North American H5N2

British Columbia, 704 samples, 174 H5 postives, Confirmed subtype: Low Pathogenic North American H5N9

Manitoba, 548 samples, 5 H5 postives, Confirmed subtype: Low Pathogenic North American H5N1

Ontario, 786 samples, 9 H5 positives, Confirmed subtype: Low Pathogenic North American H5N1

Quebec, 782 samples, 28 H5 positives, Confirmed subtype: Low Pathogenic North American H5N3

United States, 13,000 samples, no information available. According to OIE, Terrestrial Animal Health Code, section 2.7.12.1, both high path and low path AI are mandatory “notifiable” animal diseases. Low path in chickens.

“For the purposes of the Terrestrial Code, avian influenza in its notifiable form (NAI) is defined as an infection of poultry caused by any influenza A virus of the H5 or H7 subtypes or by any AI virus with an intravenous pathogenicity index (IVPI) greater than 1.2 (or as an alternative at least 75% mortality) as described below. NAI viruses can be divided into highly pathogenic notifiable avian influenza (HPNAI) and low pathogenicity notifiable avian influenza (LPNAI):

HPNAI viruses have an IVPI in 6-week-old chickens greater than 1.2 or, as an alternative, cause at least 75% mortality in 4-to 8-week-old chickens infected intravenously. H5 and H7 viruses which do not have an IVPI of greater than 1.2 or cause less than 75% mortality in an intravenous lethality test should be sequenced to determine whether multiple basic amino acids are present at the cleavage site of the haemagglutinin molecule (HA0); if the amino acid motif is similar to that observed for other HPNAI isolates, the isolate being tested should be considered as HPNAI;

LPNAI are all influenza A viruses of H5 and H7 subtype that are not HPNAI viruses.”

Tom DVM – at 18:29

Hi anonymous. I know you have been following this issue and I wish you would choose a handle so that your comments don’t get lost in the forest so to speak…but that’s not the reason for my post.

I don’t quite understand the point of your post above…I may be dense but could you explain it a little more…thanks for you input.

AlohaORat 18:42

Mamabird at 23:07 Oct 10 wrote: … but most countries will completely shut down the import of our chicken products and that portion of the US economy will tank. No longer will H5N1 be someone else’s problem.

In today’s newspaper (Oregonian) I noticed a 1/4-page ad touting the safety and biosecurity measures being taken by the family poultry farmers in Oregon. The message was (paraphrased) “Our chickens are safe to eat — we eat them ourselves.”

If they’re willing to spend money on newspaper ads, I’m guessing that they’re expecting announcements re: H5N1 in U.S. poultry pretty soon.

anonymous – at 19:22

Tom DVM. I don’t comment. I engage no one, have nothing to say about anything, and try not to offer an opinion. I post information from time to time. It’s legitimate and intelligent information, real data, I cite a source, anyone can find it with very little effort. If the information is read and useful and interesting to anyone at all, then it’s a valid post on this forum. If “get lost in the forest” is a nice way to say that it won’t be read by some - I have no response.

The post is apropo to part of this thread, from here: Mamabird – at 19:03… “I not certain that finding H5N1 in North America is “normal”. Until rather recently (last two years), no reports of H5N1 at all for almost two decades. So, this is a fairly new and disturbing phenomina.”

It’s right in line with comments by several other individuals. If this somehow causes offense, it shouldn’t.

Tom DVM – at 19:29

anonymous. Thanks for the explanation…I guess I wasn’t sure about the statement that the US had 13,000 samples with no information avaliable.

“If “get lost in the forest” is a nice way to say that it won’t be read by some - I have no response.”…

…no, that wasn’t my point…it’s just that when you remain anonymous, your posts are grouped with theirs.

I don’t think anyone could take offense from the obvious significant content you provide.

Thanks again.

anonymous – at 19:39

“…when you remain anonymous, your posts are grouped with theirs.” Grouped with whose?! Individuals who posted without a handle? Well…I guess that would be me…

Tom DVM – at 19:59

anonymous. If you remain anonymous, your posts are grouped in with all of the other anonymous posts…so therefore I cannot follow the continuity of your content as easily if you had a handle…

…for instance, if you chose a name, I could key off that name to make sure I didn’t miss anything you post whereas there are so many anonymous posters that I only read your stuff when I stumble across it…and it is too good to be missed…thanks again.

anon mc – at 20:04

anonymougs?

13 October 2006

pine ridge – at 06:38

Update on Miss Kitty. She is doing much better, almost back to normal, except the occasional sneeze. I still have her in isolation in the basement since I have another house cat, and I didn’t want to expose her. The lump on her neck is considerably smaller, you can just barely feel it when you are looking for it. The discharge from her nose was only blood tinged for two days. Every time I went into the basement yesterday she would try to play with me.

Worry Wart called me, and I promised to tkae the kitty to the vet if she didn’t improve, but every day she was doing better than the day before. I don’t know what made her sick, but the combination of a bloody nose and finding feathers was enough to send me over the edge, I think.

DebPat 07:43

Not sure where to post this under, so here it goes. My son met a girl in school that just moved here 6 weeks ago from Germany. He has a crush on her so he talks to her whenever possible. Apparently, in their conversation yesterday bird flu was mentioned. She said she was really terrified of it, because at their school, they weren’t allowed outside at lunch, etc. There was a lake with either ducks or geese that had died from it very near the school. She was surprised that he knew so much about it. It is amazing how much more interested in it he is now.

Watching in Texas – at 07:51

pine ridge at 06:38

Glad to here that Miss Kitty is on the road to recovery:-)

crfullmoon – at 08:31

DebP, is that, “good news”? “It is amazing how much more interested in it he is now” -Sure made me grin!

NIdahoat 10:25

I am receiving more contact from the Red Cross these days. About two weeks ago they offered pandemic video training. Today they email about a last minute disaster class. Very strange since I don’t usually hear from them very much.

Also Idaho has a new site for training https://www.idahoprepares.com/kc/login/login.asp?kc_ident=kc0001 I have already received training videos on terrorism and agriculture failure due to terrorism as well. Seems to be our government is putting pressure to prepare more and more for something.

Okieman – at 10:51

FrenchieGirl,

Please keep an ear out for anything related to Papua New Guinea. Thanks.

FrenchieGirlat 12:31

Hi Okieman. I have been trying to no avail to get info (on any country). In addition to being “under the weather”. Which is why I have posted little in the last two weeks. I am here, still listening, still watching…

OKbirdwatcherat 17:22

FrenchieGirl, Good to know you’ve still got your ear to the ground, so to speak. I hope you’re feeling better soon.

Okieman – at 17:31

FrenchieGirl – at 12:31

Thanks for trying though. If something is firing up in Papua New Guinea then “they” ought to start scurrying around a bit I would think. Hope you get out from under the weather and into clear skies soon.

14 October 2006

Bluebonnet – at 09:33

I’m going to post this here because I have not personally seen the documents.

A friend of mine told me yesterday that the medical center where I work (not just the hospital) has finalized their pandemic flu plans this week. She supposedly has an inch think document that lays it out. She is to bring me a copy next week. I will either confirm or deny this rumor once I see the actual document.

TPTB have devised their plan as follows:

So, that is what I was told. My friend promised to bring me a copy of the documentation on Monday. Once I confirm what she told me - I will be back and we can discuss.

If true, this is a HUGE weight off my mind.

Monotreme – at 09:58

Bluebonnet – at 09:33

Would you be willing to say what state you’re in? I’m guessing Texas, based on your handle :-)

Watching in Texas – at 10:25

Bluebonnet - I have heard that the town that I live in will be conducting a pandemic drill next month. I just hope the drill comes before the real thing:(

Thanks for sharing that information, at least we know that some people are paying attention to the threat.

Bluebonnet – at 10:27

Metronome - yes, I am from the Great State of Texas. I live in a suburb south of Houston.

DennisCat 10:46

Bluebonnet – at 10:27 south of Houston.

I grew up in Alvin and Pearland. :)

Bluebonnet – at 10:49

DennisC - Why we were almost neighbors! I live in Friendswood.

DennisCat 11:00

Bluebonnet – at 10:49 but that was back when Pearland was a seperate city. I played around where A. J. Foyt’s auto shop was (back in the 60′s). And the friendship 7 astronauts where living in Friendswood. (I think G Gleen was in Arcadia then- he came to the school football games). I hope you the best-living in the shadow of the US’s 7th largest city.

Average Concerned Mom – at 11:49

Bluebonnet’s hospital plan brings to mind something I’ve been thinking of — for people who plan to bug-out/relocate to another area at the start of a pandemic — you may need to quickly aquire proof of residency if you move there (i.e. if you are a grandma and plan to bring your adult kids and their children in to SIP with you — they may need proof of their new address, not sure how easy this will be to obtain.

Many Cats – at 11:59

Hopefully a copy of Grandma’s documents and proof of relationship would serve in a real emergency. And bringing along one angry Grandma would improve anyone’s chances of getting proper attention.

DennisCat 13:47

I would wonder how they could block off roads 5 miles out from the hospital. I would think that would be a lot of roadblocks when they don’t have many people to do it. If the blockades where not manned, they would not last very long. It sounds good on paper, but I don’t think they could pull it off during a pandemic with 40 % absenteeism.

Bird Guano – at 13:49

DennisC – at 13:47

I would wonder how they could block off roads 5 miles out from the hospital. I would think that would be a lot of roadblocks when they don’t have many people to do it. If the blockades where not manned, they would not last very long. It sounds good on paper, but I don’t think they could pull it off during a pandemic with 40 % absenteeism.

---

It’s impossible to block off a small area even for a wildfire, except for major roadways.

To try and quarantine a 5 mile radius, with limited personnel is laughable.

In a suburban area or city, it would be impossible.

MAV in Colorado – at 15:26

DennisC and BG, I strongly agree. A 5 to 10 mile “restricted radius” would need to be enforced. With the potential for hundreds to thousands of desperate souls, you are talking about thousands of “enforcers”. Doesn’t sound practical at all. Especially near a major city. If there is such a plan, it is great that at least they are thinking about a PF response.

Average Concerned Mom – at 15:42

You could just put up Jersery barriers across most roads and leave them unmanned, no? Manning just a few highway roads to let emergency vehicles through? People could always walk around the jersey barriers but probably couldn’t get their cars around, right? And who can walk carrying their sick relatives for very far?

DennisCat 15:54

Average Concerned Mom – at 15:42 just put up Jersery barriers

If people wanted to get in, they would just move them with a dozer or a truck and chain. I wouldn’t doubt that a good 4×4 SUV and a tow rope would move one to the side.

Average Concerned Mom – at 16:02

Well, yeah — if they HAD a dozer and could operate it; if they had a truck and chain. But it would probably be easier to go to the suburban site that was set up instead. I think the plan is probably not the best, but it would buy the hospital a little time, maybe an extra week or so? Before being totally innundated? I’ve seen many people on this site say that hospitals would collapse by the 2nd week. Maybe this kind of a plan would steer enough less-ill people to off site locations and create enough semblance of a “plan” that people wouldn’t freak out, become desperate enough to run on the hospital or whatever — it might at least buy an extra week or two.

anonymous – at 16:22

unusually large number of cargo planes taking off from Andrews Air Force Base today. On another thread someone mentioned seeing a lot of unusual plane activity near where the presidents ranch is. Just thought I’d mention it. Very odd.

Okieman – at 16:51

If what has been reported in the one newspaper article in Papua New Guinea, and this would be a big “if”, was actually the beginning of the pandemic and it has already flown the coop, then I would think we should see lock downs on certain facilities and the President and his staff removed from public interaction. The question I would ask is what is happening along these lines.

I mention Papua New Guinea because it is sitting heavy on my mind at the present. It could start in a multitude of other places though. This has been said time and again, but I will say it once more, if we can see general trends and specific info in the news, and actions by heads of state with the appearance of social distancing, then we should have a bit of a heads up before widespread transmission of pandemic flu.

Many Cats – at 17:00

Let’s not jump the gun. It could be they are readying supplies etc. to put an increased presence along the demilitarized zone in Korea to show some strength of conviction in the wake of the nuclear test in the north and the U.N. condemnation. May not be H5N1-related at all, although a potential war stance in Asia is not much better…

Linda – at 17:04

We live North of Houston and saw around 30+ cargo plans flying south going two by two. I have never seen that before.

De jure – at 17:09

Many Cats at 17:00: How would that explain increased aircraft activity near Crawford? I just wonder how out of the ordinary this reported increase in traffic really is. Check out the Lone Star State thread for further details on that.

Many Cats – at 17:09

It could also be they want to fortify the ranch in Crawford against an attack (who is to say there are not nuclear devices being smuggled into areas south of the border). Not to start a political angle on this thread, but merely to point out that there are other potential threats than just H5N1. All the more reason to prep. Be ready for any contingency!! It is coming down to “pick your poison” with all the threats we have to choose from recently…

Newsie – at 17:10

Deep breaths… Deep breaths… We have no idea what qualifies anonymous to judge what an “unusual” number of cargo planes are. Does anonymous watch Andrews on a daily basis to be able to spot trends.

And 2X2 cargo planes over Houston could be lots of different things…

Many Cats – at 17:13

Newsie: Agreed, but prepping is prudent in today’s world, no matter what is/is not going on at the immediate moment.

Okieman – at 17:24

Linda,

30 cargo planes going two by two is very unusual in my opinion. I have never seen such a flight. During the build up to the first gulf war I saw some pretty unusually large flights of cargo planes and helicopters in south central Oklahoma, but 30? I bet that was a sight.

cottontop – at 17:34

you ought to see the jets fly over our house, sometimes so low you’d think they were going to hit the pine trees. It really is an awsome sight to see those birds. we all run out and watch their manuvers.

Petticoat Junction – at 17:38

Newsie - Anon & Linda’s ‘qualifications’ may be the same as my own: many years living in the area and having a good sense of when activity is increased (esp. dramatically so).

I’ve lived in the Bush-ranch area longer than Bush has (I can tell you who built the cabinets at the ranch, who takes care of the trees there, and which florist Laura B. uses when they come into town). I know what the skies looked like after 9/11. I’ve seen *very* odd things overhead that were either tacitly ‘ignored’ or given multiple explanations through the local news outlets.

I’ve also seen routine maneuvers and fly-overs, both when Bush is at the ranch and when he is not. (I’m sure anon. could tell you the same thing living next to Andrews.)

What I’ve been increasingly seeing the past few weeks (even before Korea’s test, though they were obviously posturing before that) falls much more into the ‘unusual’ category than the norm. Especially since I don’t think the President is here right now. (I can usually tell before they announce it on the news because of a particular fly-over pattern.)

At one point yesterday there were two BlackHawks and two military fighters (and then a third jet) all over my backyard at the same time (puppy still looks edgy when I let him back out). We got buzzed by a BlackHawk after midnight. Those things are, trust me, unusual.

As to the cargo plans I mentioned in the PPF thread, sure, it might be a training exercise. Not that I can imagine why the military would be ‘training’ on a non-military (but secure) airstrip under normal reasons. And not that I’ve ever seen them train like that before in this non-military town. But anything is possible.

I’m not laying claim to inside scoop on motives, just telling people what I’ve seen, as are Anon and Linda.

Newsie – at 17:51

Hi PJ

Thanks for the input, though I’d be careful speaking for an anonymouse poster who you do not know : )

Nova – at 17:58

PJ: Please keep these reports coming. My personal opinion is that they have more to do with the international military situation than BF, but information is a good thing. A very good thing.

Petticoat Junction – at 17:59

Thanks Newsie, point taken. :) Although given that Air Force One is based at Andrews and that the convoy I saw here was using AF1′s airstrip, the two would seem to fit together.

FWIW, two friends - whom I do know - have both told me this weekend that they have unusually heightened amounts of military air activity in their area as well. One lives in by the 101st Airborne and the other is near Elgin AFB (and the Elgin friend said that much of theirs has been under the cover of darkness). <shrug>

Nova – at 18:02

I simply must share with you all the following commentary I found on NewsNow. It kinda puts it all in perspective. I had a much needed laugh… Please take a moment to enjoy…

http://www.guardian.co.uk/g2/story/0,,1921393,00.html

cottontop – at 18:16

Petticoat Junction-

Hello fellow texan

Being your near Bush’s ranch, you would see the “unusual” first, before say I would, near Fort Drum. It is definately worth keeping an eye on, as I have said before, “what their (government’s) behavior. It’s what they DO, and not what they say.

Anon_451 – at 18:16

Nova – at 18:02 ROFLMAO

Olymom – at 18:41

Nova, that IS hilarious. Cargo planes on the move? Could we be about to announce “victory in Iraq” and bring our troops home? Just in time for the elections?

Leo7 – at 19:48

Bluebonnet:

I’m interested in knowing what hospital workers were designated non-essential? We’re all stretched so thin, one group excluded will impact medical care. I for one don’t plan on mopping or cooking, so if that gets clarified, give me a shout will you?

Anon_451 – at 19:59

Linda – at 17:04 Are you sure about the numbers????

That would be about 25% of the entire fleet, and that would be significant.

Okieman – at 20:59

Olymom – at 18:41

I’ve wondered whether the top general in Britain that has come out with a statement concerning the need to bring their troops home, (due to them possibly being a greater hinderance than help in Iraq), is a first move to getting the ball rolling for a quick exit, but still save face. N. Korea? Panflu? Are these possibly a reason for a quick exit? Most likely the general is simply stating his convictions. But generals usually do not become generals by being calling their commanders to task about an issue. Since this is the rumour thread I thought I would articulate this thought I have been having, but it is probably just an idle thought and nothing more.

Medical Maven – at 21:05

If they are going to take out as much of Iran’s nuke capability as possible and, even more importantly, as many of the mullahs as possible, now would be the time to do it. Korea is the focus now, and crude is plentiful, gasoline has decreased in price with ample supplies, and the hurricane season is ending with a wimper.

If you want to go for a knock-out blow, you don’t telegraph your moves.

But I really don’t believe the above.

15 October 2006

temp man – at 10:26

This seems as good a place as any to post this tidbit. On my drive into work this early am I hear a PSA, public service announcement. The voice, a young mail, started out saying that there were rumours of a draft (US) starting up in his high school. He went on to say that they were just rumours, because if a draft were to begin, there would be plenty of notice!!!! Next, he discussed that regardless, young men still have to register with the selective service because it is a law, and discussed all the bad things that could happen if you didn’t register. Ended with the selective service website.
http://www.sss.gov/

Anyway, I’ve heard some selective service PSA’s in the past, but none so forthright about draft rumours.

Registration would be very helpful in case of a pandemic as well, wouldn’t it?

Anon_451 – at 10:39

temp man – at 10:26 The military is now enlisting 47 year old first timers. That would make them 67 at the end of 20 years. Normal mandatory retirement age “with out special waiver” is 60. They are scraping the bottom of the barrel. Can a draft be too far away???

LA Escapee – at 10:47

Average Concerned Mom at 11:49: If you want to have proof of residency at Grandma’s house, in another town, the simplest way is to get a couple of Grandma’s utility bills (one is not enough) changed to your name (Grandma’s address). Grandma will have to sign off on a form from the utility company.

Most government agencies accept current utility bills as proof of residency. Have Grandma send you a copy every month or so of the latest bill (send Grandma a lot of stamped, self addressed envelopes). Carry the current bills with you in your purse. This should get you through police barricades, etc.

If you want to pay Grandma for her trouble, pay the bill!

LA Escapee – at 10:48

I forgot to mention, if you create an internet account, you can print the bills from the computer. Thr utility company will continue to mail hard copies to Grandma. Sorry, it’s early in the morning still and I’m not awake yet!

Blue – at 10:52
 I heard there was a new Campaign going around?!?
AVanartsat 11:07

“Anon_451 – at 10:39 temp man – at 10:26 The military is now enlisting 47 year old first timers. That would make them 67 at the end of 20 years. Normal mandatory retirement age “with out special waiver” is 60. They are scraping the bottom of the barrel. Can a draft be too far away??? “

Where did you hear that about the age limit now being 47? According the the Army website the age limits for first time recruits is now 17 to 34, with parents permission at 17. The age limits for the National Guard go a bit higher at 17 to 40, again with parents permission at 17. http://tinyurl.com/y5sdb6

Bird Guano – at 11:08

The military air communications traffic noes NOT indicate a large increase in cargo aircraft.

I’m on a number of MilAir lists, and that much of an increase WOULD be noticed.

Newsie – at 11:19

Temp man at 10:26.

Draft rumors are a very popular “urban legend” that pop up every couple years, esp. among teens/high school students.

The Selective Service PSA is indicative of innovative messaging that has been utilized more and more by Gov agencies to creatively get their message across. In short, just like any other “commercial” you need to grab people’s attention if you want your message to be heard.

To sum up, the draft “rumor” is just that, it pops up ever couple of years, and using it in a PSA is a creative way to capture the attention of the target audience for Selective Service registration.

: )

diana – at 13:46

I was listening to a talk show host. Michael Savage, he is quite off the wall sometimes, but makes me think., shakes up my own beliefs. He couldn’t sleep at 4 a.m. and was in his kitchen drafting a manifesto, (interesting) and he heard major air traffic coming from Sacremento, he thought. He evidently took it to mean something major is going on.He didn’t try to interpret this, but as he said. Heavy air traffic in commercial jets at 4 a.m. is not usual.

Anon_451 – at 13:56

AVanarts – at 11:07 DW saw it on CNN. No links available. Sounded off the wall to me too. That was the reason I posted it here instead of news as that would be a significant shift in policy. Have no reason to doubt DW on this as she is well aware of the implications. We have draft eligible Grand Children and do watch what is going on.

Monotreme – at 14:11

Thread is pretty long. Closed and continued here.

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