Continued from here
I’m opening this thread with the first post from the thread Rumour Of WHO Level 4, since at this point it is nothing more than a rumor.
24 October 2006
Walrus – at 19:50
There is a suggestion (not yet confirmed) that WHO has just gone level 4. With respect, if it has perhapos it deserves its own thread?
much beter name for this thread.
I wasn’t quiet sure where to put this, so I opted for here.
I found this site and would like ya’ll to check it out and let me know what you think. I don’t have a firm opinion on this one way or the other. (Hey it’s a slow day.)
Cottontop- Just another conspiracy theorist trying to make big bucks in my opnion.
cottontop – at 12:29 Okay, so she’s an osteopath who is against vaccinating our children and medication - thinks BF is a ploy make drug companies rich. Just reviewing her site, she seems like a kook who is in it for publicity. She’s obviously unqualified to give an opinion on the risk of pandemic influenza. IMHO.
tjclaw1- “kook”-LOL! Love it. Like I said I don’t accept wholeheartly what’s she pushing. I thought it would be somewhat interesting for today’s lack of or slow news. Hell, I’ll read anything if I’m bored enough. Ketchup bottles, shaving cream cans, broccoli packages……
Rumor has it that the show Montel has a physic on yesterday that said we don’t have to worry, that a vaccanation will be created in time to save us from a severe pandemic. YEA I feel so much better now.
Let me guess KimT, her name is Syvia Browne.
that would be my guess, but I really didnt watch it, my others halfs mom did and she wanted to make sure I heard about it, so it really is a rumor since I didnt watch it. ; ) Why do people point out that the government is going to save us even when it comes from a psysic?
Lord only knows! If that is the one, if she says we are not to worry about this, WE’RE ALL GONNA DIE!!
KimT – at 13:40 --- If psychos…oops, I meant psychics, are sooooo good, why do you have to tell them what you want the answer to? Why can’t they just email everyone who has a problem, explain the solution, and be done with it?
cottontop, thanks for the link. While I think the website’s author tends to the nutty side, I did find one a useful nugget of information there that says the flu virus is easily rendered harmless by detergents (soapy water, like Dawn dishwashing soap) that wash off the virus’ outer layer, which renders the virus incapable of infection. Nice to know!
sounds like she has some stock in a pharmaceutical company. Yea, we here at fluwikie would love to have an e-mail from her! (she wouldn’t last under the pressure!)
KimT – at 13:34 “Rumor has it that the show Montel has a physic on yesterday that said we don’t have to worry, that a vaccanation will be created in time to save us from a severe pandemic.”
Same response I get from my doctor “Don’t worry, be happy!” Yeah, doc, just give me some more meds…
LINE FORMS HERE FOR MEDS….
I was just re-reading the article on Dr. Nabarro’s statement the other day (couldn’t remember where it was on here, so I’m putting this in Rumors) and I noticed that they say he just returned from a “fact finding” trip. The thing is he went to Indonesia, Cambodia, Myanmar and AUSTRALIA? Why would Australia be included in that trip? I still want to know what happened to those 10 people who were taken to hospitals after landing in Australia from Asia. Same as the first flight (which was about a week or two earlier)…they say they were propably drug smugglers. All 10 of them??? And they have never said anymore about this. I do think SOMETHING is happening in Australia. Does anyone else?
Bronco Bill – at 14:28
I went to a psychic once but she won’t tell me anything because she already knew I wasn’t going to pay her!
(Steven Wright)
KimT 13:34
“Rumor has it that the show Montel has a physic on yesterday that said we don’t have to worry, that a vaccanation will be created in time to save us from a severe pandemic.”
Umm… is this the same psychic who said during the 80s that she realized that 9 out of 10 people did not have a ‘future’ past the first decade of this century? I think the people’s auras were black or grey or non-existant. I had a friend who was debunking pscychics and did a lot of research on Sylvia Browne. Seems like she foretold some cataclysmic (sp?) event but was very clear at the time that it would not be a nuclear war. The world was embroiled in the cold war nuclear arms race when she made the prediction, so it was nice to be told that we were all still going to die just from some other horrific end.
On the other hand, this post did give me a really good laugh when I read it. Now if she could just give us the winning lottery numbers so we could all finish our preps in fine style, I’d be a REALLY happy camper. Thanks, KimT! I really needed a good laugh!!
Well-there are psychics and then there are psychics! I went to a psychic onces in Chicago-he was very respected, matter of fact he was Harold Washington’s psychic ( former major of Chicago). I was in a custody battle over my children with my ex and wanted to know if should go ahead with it then or hold off. I was told that I should hold off for abouat 2 months. the psychic felt my ex was real strong at the time, but would come down with an illness soon, that would shake him up pretty bad and make him ‘shaky” in more than the pysical area.-I had everything on tape. BUt stubborn me -I went ahead anyways and lost the case!-Several weeks later my ex became ill and had to take several weeks off work, ha. No wonder my current husband always says:- Don’t ask me what to do , if you already know what you are going to do regardless of what I say!!
KimT – at 13:34 “Rumor has it that the show Montel has a physic on yesterday that said we don’t have to worry, that a vaccanation will be created in time to save us from a severe pandemic.”
CREATED, and MANUFACTURED/Distributed are two VERY different things.
Bird Guano- How true. Was reading some story earlier, about the reason for the shortage was that there was a problem at the manufacturing plant. Wished I kept that now.
You should read her site or skim through her books. She is also an expert on Heaven, Atlantis and knows all the secrets from the mysteries of the past. Why not have her solve the messes in Iraq, North Korea and Iran. Talk about the gullability of the public.I am so relieeeeved, now that Sylvia Browne has given her thumbs up.
If I recall correctly she is also the founder of a church so she probably enjoys tax free benefits. Her readings are about 600 and her son charges less. Montel Williams seems to have her on whenever I have caught his show, which is rarely. Whatever abilities she has, and I don’t doubt she started with some feels off. the wall. She does talk some common sense, but she has some odd mannerisms. Someone who can read body language should watch her. I for one don’t doubt that a vaccine will be developed, don’t we all think it will?.
diana. It is easy to make a vaccine.
It is difficult to produce a vaccine that does no harm and even more difficult to produce a vaccine that works…
…just because it says ‘vaccine’ on the bottle unfortunately does not mean it is effective.
It is very simple to test a physic or any one who claims to talk to God. Give them a list of known prime numbers and ask them for a 12 digit (or larger) prime.
Prime numbers are only divisable by 1. Examples 1 3 7 11 13 17 etc.
Please note that several times I have thought that God was talking to me but the prime numbers I recived did not compute.
In the words of Ronald Regan to his wife who had several physic advisors “TRUST BUT VERIFY!”
Gratuitous bashing of that which you do not understand and in which you lack knowledge and experience is, in my opinion, a display of ignorance — also called “a closed mind.” It is a combination of science and intuition that has uncovered some of the most astonishing discoveries during the last century. Many well known scientists are the first to admit this.
“There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.” Hamlet (I, v, 166–167)
From a more scientific source: “The most beautiful thing we can experience is the mysterious. It is the source of all true art and all science.” Albert Einstein
Sure.
Professional Intuitive- @18:13
I’m not knockig the world of paranormal. I’m knocking the 99.9% of these quacks that feed off weak people, and feed off of them they do. It’s deplorable that this is even legal. And for the public, it has ruined the very small percent of people I do believe have some very special genuine gift. I’ve known one women in my lifetime that posessed a special talent, and it always creeped my out, but man she was about 95% of the time, dead on. Even on the phone she could tell you where something was. There’s more fake paranormal out there than there is real, and we know this. So forgive out “gratuitous bashing.”
I just want to respond to the WHO Level 4 rumor, now that it’s already gone a little stale. :-)
I’ve just been in conference today in DC with a whole bunch of high-and-mighty folks in the pandemic world, and a) everyone was acting normal (whatever normal means), and b) there were no last minute absences. Plus a third party with some contacts at the WHO also reports business as usual, eg nobody recalled from their vacation etc.
I think that kinda puts the nail in the coffin of that one, maybe?
Sylvia Brown is a crackpot. Can’t say it any clearer than that. Her advice, or whatever you call it, is not worth the air it takes to repeat it.
ColdClimatePrepper-
Exactly my point. I watched a video on-line of her on Montel, and I was actually embarrassed for her.
Professional Intuitive of 41 yrs – at 18:13 I believe and a lot of others here believe in that which is difucult to explain, check out the dream thread from the beginning, we seem to be a mixture of spriritual and scientific here. I have had experiences since I was a small child, visions, reading minds, highly intuitive…blah …blah but I never believe blindly that which I hear or see from an unexplained sources or a person. I will protect my family regardless of whether a CDC rep says don’t worry be happy, or a intuitive…tells me don’t worry be happy. CYA yoyo.
Welcome to the forum!
anon_22 – at 18:53 I think that kinda puts the nail in the coffin of that one, maybe?
Let’s hope!
Can we shoot this thread and put it out of its misery?
Or, in lieu of that, at least keep it on topic.
I posted a question at 15:03 about what anyone else thought about the airport incidences in Sydney…no reports after that last flight when 10 were taken off. Is anybody else wondering about this, or is it just me?
KimT- @ 18:59 LOL!` Way to go!
Betty- I didn’t hear of that story. I only heard of the one guy who was suspect bird flu, turns out he was smuggling drugs. Do you have some link? I would like to read that.
Hi everyone. There is a lot more intuition and psychic ability that goes into the fields of science and medicine then many might think. If you have ever met a doctor or nurse who seemed to diagnose your problem almost before you sat down, then you have probably benefitted from intuition - psychic ability…your choice what you call it.
As an amateur practioner of the ‘dark art’, I do not claim to speak to God…and I don’t think others do either…most intuitives (psychics) are quite quiet about it…
…you do get a few that turn it into a circus and that is unfortunate…I’m not sure how accurate this person was or is…but I hope she is right about the vaccine.
I know the ‘Professional Intuitive of 41 yrs’. He/she has been on flu wiki probably longer than me, but does not advertise a professional qualification in the ‘nom de plum’ used on flu wiki.
Actually, I had a medical problem that Professional Intuitive kindly diagnosed and I am now feeling a bit better.
One thing I have learned from my eight months on flu wiki is that many with very plain names have often interesting professions and jobs…
…I know I was very surprised to find out how qualified ‘Professional Intuitive’ actually was.
Anyway, I don’t know the person or Montel for that matter…but I have come to trust all of my colleagues here on flu wiki…
…and to ‘Professional Intuitive’…my heartfelt thanks…again…
…maybe you should stick with the new handle…it might be interesting. /:0)
Something odd? - No Reports Yet For Today - ProMed mail.
Hi Cottontop, I will look for the link. It was on the Sydney Herald (?) which you can get to online. There were 10 people will flu symptoms that were taken to 3 different hospitals. One was a woman and her child. They mentioned in the story that it was possible they were summgling drugs. I guess someone could believe that since they had that situation just a week before; however, they have given no follow up on this. On the first case they did report follow up…the man and his girlfriend in court on charges. But with this nothing. Also, how plausible is it that 10 people (who we don’t even know if they were traveling together) all were smuggling drugs on the same plane AND a week after the first incident. They must have been pretty stupid. Anyhow, I’m new here and have never put a link on so I will try. Thank you so much for responding to my question. I appreciate it. KP
I remember seeing that story too, Betty. It did seem odd that all 10 were written off as the same thing.
I hope this will “paste” for me…here goes
Sick passengers under probe
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October 10, 2006 - 8:26PM AdvertisementAdvertisement
Several suspected drug runners have been taken to hospital after falling ill during a flight from Bangkok to Sydney, prompting an investigation by customs and federal police.
The passengers were rushed to at least three Sydney hospitals after arriving at Sydney Airport on a Thai Airways flight about 6.37am (AEST) today.
AAP understands the incident is drug-related.
Australian Federal Police (AFP) and the Australian Customs Service (ACS) said they were aware of reports of sick airline passengers.
“Customs and the AFP are aware that several passengers arriving on a flight from Bangkok to Sydney this morning have taken ill,” a Customs spokeswoman said.
“Both agencies are currently conducting investigations and it’s not appropriate for us to comment any further on the matter.
“At this stage there is no suggestion that the illnesses are any relation at all to bird flu.”
The passengers were reportedly taken to three Sydney hospitals with one person believed to be in a serious condition.
The group reportedly includes one woman with a baby who is under police guard at Prince of Wales Hospital.
Network Ten reported AFP officers attended the hospital with translators to interview the passengers.
A Prince of Wales spokeswoman confirmed two patients were being treated at the hospital, but would not reveal their condition.
A St George Hospital spokeswoman confirmed one of the passengers was at the hospital, but would not comment on his condition.
A Royal Prince Alfred Hospital spokeswoman would not reveal how many passengers were at the hospital, saying customs was handling the media inquiries.
Another two people allegedly left the flight at Bangkok Airport and are being sought by police.
AFP and customs would not confirm the passengers were alleged drug couriers, saying it was “inappropriate to comment any further” while investigations were taking place.
Two weeks ago, Hung Nguyen, 36, fell seriously ill on a Vietnam Airlines flight which landed in Sydney.
He was suspected of suffering from bird flu but was later found to have allegedly overdosed after a pellet containing heroin burst in his stomach.
AAP
Professional Intuitive of 41 yrs – at 18:13 Tom DVM – at 19:28
This individuals who work in military intelligence (no that is not an oxymoron). Gather as much information as they can then make the best guess that their years of experience and training tell them to make.
The same would be true for some of our medical professionals as they look for the unknown in trying to treat the ill.
In science it is the same. Any thing unproven is called a theory. Often the answers come from out of the blue, call it heaven sent, call it intuition call it luck. I happen to think it is the glory of the human mind which has the ability to see beyond it’s own existence into the world of the unknown.
Betty-
Wow-never heard that one. I might be way off on this, but it seems to me that they are implying that “all the drug smugglers are sick because of overdose” all at once? Hmmmm. the only way that could possibly happen is if they ate while carrying the packets in their stomach. stewardess are instructed, according to a show I watch on this, to report anyone who did not eat, during international flights. sounds odd to me. Thanks for the heads up on this.
Tom DVM – at 19:28 I think we are speaking of two totally different things.
My wife’s sister is a retired high school principle and her husband was a teacher. They spend 50 to 60 thousand a year going to psychics.
They pay and they pay. A 50 cent candle is $500. A bit of incense is a thousand. They are college educated but behave as children. They can not make any significant decision with out consulting at least one psychic.
They did test the psychic (at my insistance) by asking for their social security number. It was revealed on their next visit. The prime number had him stumped.
But by being upset about being tested, he soon had them in his grip again.
Darwin-
That was my point earlier. They feed and they feed. Parasites I call them. Ought to be illegal. However, we can’t spend our time making new rules to protect people from themselves. If this physic says not to worry, you can bet people will stop prepping and “not worry”. I agreed wholeheartly with KimT @18:59. These people brainwash you, and even the most college educated are stupid enough to fall for it.( go figure). Me, I’m suspicious by nature, and question for survival.
anon_22 – at 18:53 I just want to respond to the WHO Level 4 rumor, now that it’s already gone a little stale. :-)
I’ve just been in conference today in DC with a whole bunch of high-and-mighty folks in the pandemic world, and a) everyone was acting normal (whatever normal means), and b) there were no last minute absences. Plus a third party with some contacts at the WHO also reports business as usual, eg nobody recalled from their vacation etc.
I think that kinda puts the nail in the coffin of that one, maybe?
Just got off a chat room where source confirmed WHO has been at a Level 4 for last 6 weeks.
[bluebonnet] 9, there is a rumor on the fluwikie that the who has gone to level 4. Any info on this? 18:23:15 [9103] Blue, my understanding is they already have for the past 6 weeks 18:24:09 [9103] Why do you think I was told that everything starts rolling on Nov 1st 18:24:35 [9103] This is why all of a sudden you are hearing these commercials, psa’s, etc. All in the past few days. 18:24:37 [bookher] what are they not telling us to go to 4 18:24:43 [9103] Radar, that is unknown
Anyone with WHO contacts who can confirm/deny?
I really do believe in psychics and intuitives!I am careful where I get my information and I trust my own intuitive senses. A blanket statement that is thrown out to the masses has me suspicious. Each person and situation needs to be taken individually.
there has to be real juicy rumors out there?
Have also noticed that states(here), and other countries have started to talk about their prepardness plans more. It seems to me, that this is becoming more visible, at least since I have been here. More on-line news, just not in main stream media.
Could that be akin to the curious fact that if you buy a red F-150 because they are ( in your mind ),uncommom, that then you see them at every traffic light ?
Or could it be, that TPTB are actually getting off their collective duffs, and doing something?
Is there anyone from the entire fluwiki hive who can confirm or deny the phase 4 rumour? You can post as an anon.
Does FW offer protection for ‘leakers’?
There used to be a few comments on here about increased activity at militar bases. Any news from anyone on that end? I am very curious about that area of information gathering. What is done and observed is usually a more reliable indicator of things than what is said and heard.
KimT-@21:16
I have believed in the paranormal since I was a little girl. As a grown woman, I believe intuition to be as real as the air I breath. Every single time I go against it, (which is so rare), I pay for it. It’s just very sad that these so called physics feed on people.
Enza at 21:29 Just the FW brand of “Depends”
[slinks back to lurking…]
LOL
But will they hold up if you have too much RWFK?
Leaning— may be hard to tease out panflu manuevers since we are at war.
I’m thinking hospitals—someone working with readinet, or LHD epidemiology personnel. But mostly hospitals. How about ER/crital care HCWs? What are your alerts this week? Somebody must know something.
Bluebonnet – at 21:08
I just went back and took a look at my case maps for September and the Sept 19 Indonesia thread. It is interesting that in September we had multiple suspect cases in Medan, Bandung/Garut, and Makassar. September 19 is when Nabarro went to Indonesia. And it is about that time when the WHO changed their symptoms/case criteria for suspect bird flu cases.
Now, I am not saying that I necessarily think that we have officially but incognito moved into Level 4, but the 6 week period you mention has some merit for believability.
Anyway, I am fairly sure this is just what was intended when the “Rumor Thread” was created. Rumors are to be passed around and discussed, not believed. But sometimes rumors do turn out to be true. Time will tell.
Now if we could just find Joe Time’s email address at the WHO we could settle this matter.
Anyone with solid media contacts might want to work them now and in the forthcoming weeks. The WHO will never go to “4″ without preparing the ground first. Going to “4″ will be a highly engineered event. They will want any major media (the types like Ted Koppel, Lou Dobbs) informed and educated with specific reference to what, exactly, WHO wants them to be informed and educated about, before any move to “4″ is made. They will want these types onboard, and while they will not ever get them under their control, they will certainly make an attempt to get them under their influence.
If anyone has media contacts at that level, it would be interesting to hear if the key producers for these top media folks begin receiving an influx of WHO PR packets highlighting the subject of pandemic flu, discussing the major players and their backgrounds, etc.
I find it hard to believe that WHO won’t lay significant groundwork with the media before any move to “4.” They certainly cannot just announce a pandemic level change and then take the phone off the hook. There will be a lot of questions, a lot of scurrying around to get access to the major players for interviews. For this reason, major media may be prepared in advance. They won’t realize why they’re being prepared, and will likely consider the WHO press kits to be just the same as routine kinds they receive from the Fed or a rock star’s handlers. But if anyone here knows any of those media people, and can ask for a call if they notice they are in receipt of a bunch of new WHO material, that may be one tip-off to look for.
Can we stop with all the psychic talk and keep this topic ON TOPIC! Some of this stuff is ridiculous. Sorry for the rant but enough already!
ok Enough already – at 22:17
Pixie@ 22:09
If this plays out the way you have described, guess what’s going to happen? Bird flu will be back in the news, if I understood you correctly. And maybe that’s WHO has planned. A wake up call.
There used to be a few comments on here about increased activity at militar bases. Any news from anyone on that end? I am very curious about that area of information gathering. What is done and observed is usually a more reliable indicator of things than what is said and heard.
On the fenxce @ 21:32 — No more activity at the ANG base. Very quiet since the Sea Stallions went over. I should go out on my pre-dawn walks again; sometimes I’ve seen a really pimped-out plane go up and known that somebody important had visited.
When it really starts heating up, the jets go up a lot and I haven’t seen them up at all.
Bluebonnet- I just read on another forum, that the same person who said that WHO has been at level 4 for some time, stated that it would be announced after November elections.
Bluebonnet – at 21:08
Just got off a chat room where source confirmed WHO has been at a Level 4 for last 6 weeks.
At least 2 of the people whom I spent the whole of today in the same room with are IN the WHO Task Force, whose job it is to advise the WHO on changing pandemic alerts and all the fallout that comes out of that.
You think they will be there taking questions on modelling and sensitivity analysis if all hell is breaking loose at WHO headquarters in Geneva?
Bluebonnet, what was it you said you posted here on the Wiki today? Which thread did you post it in? Unfortuantely, I didn’t write it down. Texas Regional something or other? I wanted to read it.
On the fence and leaning – at 23:22: Nothing unusual at the bases in our area.
Having written specifications for decades in my career, I think I see a pretty poorly written specification (defination) for phase 4 that was corrected. It’s pretty obvious to me that they did not anticipate these small (intra-family) H2H cases that ‘petered out.’ It was intended that a phase 4 would be an efficent H2H that would continue to expand unless a quarantine could stop it. I don’t think we’re at a phase 4 as they originally intended it, so they corrected their defination for a phase 4. BTW, I have had to re-write hundreds of specifications once it was discovered that they did not give the intended result. I do not think we’re at a phase 4 as the original defination was intended. Albeit, I have my eyes wide open.
Look at what phase 4 actually says—it’s not much different from 3. If the WHO is concerned or knows something about all the mysterious viral fevers that are killing people, that would qualify or justify phase 4
I am close to Patuxent Naval Air Station and have not seen or heard anything unusual.
anon_22 - I don’t know - just passing along information.
Some background, I was searching for mass fatality preparedness after some discussion here. Several search engines kept sending me to New Mexico’s pandemic site. Seems a lot of state’s have modeled their plans on New Mexico’s.
After I read AzNewBe’s post - I perked up my ears. I don’t normally do the chat session but decided to check this out last night. I really thought someone had misunderstood something; that’s why I asked the question last night.
I never expected to get the answer I did. My PPF went from a 2 to an 8 in about 30 seconds. As I stated above - we need folks to confirm/deny - that’s why I posted here in the Rumors thread.
Ducky - Go to the Preparedness Response Guide thread to see what is posted there. 9 confirmed last night in the chat that this is the reason for this plan to come out now. He also confirmed that preparedness plans should be in place by November 1. Now that doesn’t mean he thinks that is the date TSHTF - just the date for preparedness officials to be ready with everything.
I’m sorry if I have yanked some chains here but I think this is a very important rumor that needs to be investigated more. It is just a rumor at this point - nothing more.
(some of these “wash your hands so you don’t spread “the flu” PSA’s have been on the schedule for months, to “start this fall”; they were in no hurry statewide to start any public “education” campaigns.)
And “journalists” are asking neither the current administration, nor candidates for govenor about local pandemic preparedness.
Gee, the local “public pandemic (awareness?) meeting (a year late) got scheduled for after the election. Figures.
cottontop – at 19:14 I believe this link to the Sydney Morning Herald provides an up date to the article mentioned on the 10th October. is the link you were looking for on the smugglers on the 10th October link
anon_22 – at 01:23
I agree with you and trust your judgement in most things. Buuuut…and I’m just saying…if WHO began laying the groundwork for phase 4 announcement six weeks ago, that’s six weeks to iron out kinks, batten the hatches, adjust to the new normal, etc. and still show up in DC for your conference, no?
I did the same thing Okieman did. I went back to see what was going on six weeks ago, and his details are accurate. Then, four weeks ago we have the first meeting of the interim advisory panel. Then two or three weeks ago we start getting the, “Hey world. Don’t fall asleep,” messaging from WHO. In finance talk, it looks like a ramp up or roll out of a, er, new product/brand. ;)
Omega-sydney@ 09:06
Thanks for that link. That one got past me. I see now why they were sick. I would be sick too if I had 288 pellets in my stomach! And then had to pass them! Man. The article seemed like the real deal. However, the link I read last night said they all reported to be sick at the same time on the airplane. It would be convient to use drug smugglers as a cover story. Not saying that’s what happened. the article does seem convincing enough.
thanks for staying on topic. We need to follow the WHO Level 4 rumor closely here. Thanks
Okidokie- Yea, guess we did get off topic yesterday, way off topic. You just get caught up in conversation sometimes.
Ok guys,
I found the name of the rep from UNM who was at that meeting in NM.And her email addy. Just sent her a note inviting her to come here, and explain what was said or email me if she preferred. Will have to wait and see.
catus- Excellant. Now I’m biting my nails(!)
Great work, Cactus!This site amazes me sometimes!This would be big news and she may be scared or not allowed to elaborate.Many thanks.
Bluebonnet – at 08:43 Do you have a link for the chat room you’ve been visiting?
cottontop
Give your nails a break. I`ve thought that we should have been at 4 since Karo, getting “offical” won`t make a lot of difference to most of us. I realize that it will impact various plans and governments, but don`t see that it would cause me to do much different.
Now, off to Safeway, they have potatoes on sale 20 pounds for $3. Time to put that dehydrator to work.
tjclaw1 - go to www.terminusreality.com
You must register. The chat is usually held on Wednesdays at 7:00 pm. Read the 9103 section.
I think the chat will stay up for 96 hours - so you may still be able to see it.
Cactus - I can’t wait to hear what you find out. Can you pick up some of those spuds for me? ;)
bluebonnet @ 21:08 and 8:43,
The weird thing was, your post about nov. 1, kinda freaked me out yesterday, THEN out of the blue, I saw the glaxo ad on vaccines (“everything is ok”) last night and freaked, now a whole thread has started on the ad. I think there is a subtle message out there- kind of a cya thing…”see, we told you”.
Bluebonnet - what is the background of the person on the other website that you feel has inside information? Also, what is the general background of his source? Without knowing this, it is very hard to judge the credibility of any rumors.
I bring this up because at another website I was associated with, there was one particular person who always claimed “special inside knowledge” and if you listened to him (and many did as he was a well known and prolific poster) then you would get the idea that the pandemic was about to begin at any second (at each and every second). However, not one of his rumors turned out to be true in reality. That did not stop people from listening to him, though, and I think they still do. That said, I’d also be interested in knowing what the track record of the person that passed on the rumor you heard - have they come through and been found credible before? That would certainly weight to the argument, if that has been your experience.
Pixie at 13:19- The source in question appears to be involved in emergency management possibly at the national level. He won’t say publically what he does, but supposedly the Admins over at TR have verified that he does work at a level in emergency mgt, and might be able to give folks a heads-up on certain things. Personally, I do pay attention to his posts, and he seems to know what he is talking about in other areas. His motivation appears to be making sure people are prepared for any eventuality. He has been fairly accurate in some things, and off on others. But, his hit/miss ratio is pretty darn good, IMHO. As I said, I pay attention to his posts. I don’t believe everything he says, but it gives me a direction to focus.
Nawty - I agree completely. He seems to be very well informed and his information is very timely. I’ve read his posts for nearly 6 months. I find him to be a very compassionate individual. I, too, pay attention to his posts - sometimes I believe him and sometimes not, however, as Nawty said above, it helps me to focus my preps.
That said, Pixie is right. There are lots of folks on different websites who sound very well informed but are, in fact, not. That’s why I asked here for someone to confirm/deny and that is the reason I posted this in the Rumors thread.
Preppiechick - I was freaked out last night when he answered my question in the affirmative. I poked around a bit on the WHO website this morning. Nothing there really except the October 23rd announcement of the “Global pandemic influenza action plan to increase vaccine supply.” From what I read on their site - this appears to be the last item on the WHO list for Stage 3. Not that this means anything.
I don’t think not finding anything on the WHO site is material. I think Pixie’s very astute observation that WHO may be laying the groundwork by doing advance work on messaging with media, etc. may prove to be right on. It’s a very sensible approach, and when you think about it, this is probably the only phase adjustment in which WHO will have this luxury. Future adjustments won’t likely come in such a controlled manner.
Now I’m starting to freak out.
First, after following the city triage debate I looked up the CDC website and saw their advice to everyone - have at least two weeks of preps including a gallon per person per day of water! Perhaps I’m just dumb and stupid, but that suggests that the CDC expects major dislocations.
Second freak out, last night at the bar I habitually attend for a pre-dinner drink two guys I’ve known for years start talking about alcohol hand wipes and hand washing precautions as if they had known about it for years - which I can assure you is impossible.
Wake up time?
Bluebonnet, check your PM.
I thought I would start a half full instead of a half empty rumor. Notice that there have been no confirmed human cases since the 15th. Perhaps it is all over. (Then perhaps not). Perhaps all the rumors about WHO and CDC are just that-rumors. Instead perhaps they don’t have any clue as to what is happening and there is no secret plans to release info on a given day because they just don’t know what to do.
Not exactly a rumor but-in the last 24 hours I have heard three different little snippets of flu-related news on my local public radio, PSA really, certainly approperate fof this time of year and maybe nothing other than coincidence-still Pixie’s comment about the WHO/media laying down a groundwofk, makes me feel a little nervy.
On the other hand-thank you Dennis, for keeping us in check-maybe there is NOTHING at all going on. Wouldn’t that be groovy?
Tom DVM – at 19:28
Tom I’d like to talk to you more about learning the “dark arts” lol could you email me? My addy is in my profile.
cactus – at 10:39
Give your nails a break. I`ve thought that we should have been at 4 since Karo, getting “offical” won`t make a lot of difference to most of us. I realize that it will impact various plans and governments, but don`t see that it would cause me to do much different.
What I’m scared of is, that when they finally move to stage 4, that we will really already be at stage 5
maybe a news blackout from Indonesia is a very bad thing?
Bluebonnet,
I’m still not able to understand what your source is, what exactly he said, and what evidence if any he puts up to substantiate it.
Again I claim no insider information, but now that I’ve ‘come out’ people know who I am, they meet me in real life, they can verify the things that I say. And I’m saying that I spent another day in meetings with a large group of top flu scientists and policymakers, including Martin Cetron of the CDC and Neil Ferguson of Imperial College, who both advise the WHO directly, and Arnold Monto, John Barry, Marc Lipsitch, DA Henderson, among others.
I do not believe that this other person on the internet has insider information that none of these experts know about, or that ALL of them
I spoke to these people, some of them at close range and in some length. I refuse to believe that my ability to read minimal cues or body language is so poor that I will miss this very important signal!
Siam - at 19:08
The news blackout from Indonesia is nothing to get worried about. They are on a major week-long holiday, much like the period between Christmas and New Years for us. Everybody is on vacation, and besides they probably do not really want to hear any bad news right now. Things will resume next week, but when they do don’t get alarmed that we are all suddenly playing catch-up and lots of cases seem to have cropped up all at once. Same reaon - there’s just been a lag in reporting.
During the Christmas/New Year’s break here, we often see our “news” reports filled with stories of alien visitations or human cloning. Fortunately, the Indonesians do not stoop that low due to a dearth of real news or we’d all be tearing our hair out right about now!
Question: Does the WHO consider a move to phase 4 a major event or a stepping stone?
enza – at 19:34
Question: Does the WHO consider a move to phase 4 a major event or a stepping stone?
The first, hands down.
Remember what Nabarro said, that the UN had an disagreement with the WHO? If phase 4 is no big deal, why fight? They’ve had this problem with raising the alert for a long time. Technically, whether to change the alert is the WHO DG’s call, based on scientific data. At one point, on the WHO draft for containment document(I believe it was the January version, although I’m not 100% sure), they acknowledged that there were economic and political difficulties and therefore the alert phases will no longer be strictly science based, but will take into account the economic and political consequences. That paragraph disappeared from subsequent drafts. But you can see that this is a big dilemma.
Now they’ve organized this Pandemic Task Force, of whom Cetron and Ferguson are members, to advise them on when to change alert phase. My read is that the Task Force is a direct consequence of that row with the UN about raising the alert level.
The concern is that some countries have tied certain actions to the alert phases. Even though the WHO has advised them to change that, I’m not sure that they have. So a change in alert phase could trigger a series of activities such as border closures.
anon_22 – at 19:45 The concern is that some countries have tied certain actions to the alert phases. Even though the WHO has advised them to change that, I’m not sure that they have. So a change in alert phase could trigger a series of activities such as border closures.
Undoubtedly true. But the WHO will never get every country on the same page. If that’s what they’re waiting for, then we’re all done. for.
Carrey in Va. It seems the email in your profile doesn’t work. Maybe you could ask your question here and I will try to answer it. Thanks.
aNON_22: The concern is that some countries have tied certain actions to the alert phases. Even though the WHO has advised them to change that, I’m not sure that they have. So a change in alert phase could trigger a series of activities such as border closures.
My county pandemic plan is still marked “DRAFT” and does indeed tie certain specific actions to the WHO levels.
This is indeed a valid concern.
This afternoon I had the scariest conversation of my life. It was about the pandemic and it was with someone who has high-level insider information. Here is what happened:
Twice each week I bend the ear of whomever is sitting next to me on the airplane and I talk about the impending pandemic. Often times, the people I sit next to have some measure of infulence in their respective companies, so I press them for their e-mail addresses and I send them electronic versions of a lengthy pandemic preparation document I have written. Well, today I had the good fortune to sit next to the Director of Virology of a major medical center at a major university in the southwestern United States. Needless to say, I took advantage of this situation and we had a lively discourse.
I learned that this virologist’s hospital has been pereparing for a pandemic for several months. They anticipate a 50% infection rate and a 10% case fatality rate. They have decided that when just 1 student is diagnosed with H5N1, the university will shut down everything but its medical center. At that point in time, the staff of the medical center will be required to live on campus. They will not commute. The medical center has enough food and water and generator fuel to support 150% of their current staffing level for three straight months. The National Guard will provide security and crowd control for the medical center.
During our 4-hour flight we discussed many of the real-world scenarios that might unfold. Ultimately, this person and his hospital both understand that 3 months of supplies will not be enough, but they feel they are way ahead of the curve by having done this much.
When I mentioned to him that I feared that the post-pandemic world be like early 19th century conditions, he indicated that early 19th century was a “best-outcome” scenario. He actually fears that our future will be much worse. Although this individual balked at many of my questions, he did acknowledge that he has a stock of suicide pills for himself and his closest friends and relatives.
This, coming from an “insider”, is very disturbing.
now THATS.. a rumor and a half!
Edna Mode – at 19:52
Undoubtedly true. But the WHO will never get every country on the same page. If that’s what they’re waiting for, then we’re all done. for.
Well, I don’t know if you were around when we had those huge WHO debates. My response to your comment is: “so what else is new anyway.”
Sorry if that’s not very helpful. That’s just how the WHO works, IMHO>
Dr Dave – at 20:17
This, coming from an “insider”, is very disturbing.
YOu know what? I find it encouraging. That there are at least some folks who base their operational plans on something close to reality.
You need to start thinking that way, IMHO. It will do you good. :-)
wow. i am just stunned.
WHOA $#!+ !!!! Dr. Dave, that really is! Can you tell us more!
Now, I’m just about as cynical about the future as this fellow, but I can see me scrappin’ to the end. I just can’t see what he’s seeing that I’m not. (And I’m seeing an American Somalia.)
One big rumor from Dr Dave.
Carrey in VA and Tom DVM I would also be interested in sharing this conversation. Maybe start another thread?
Dr. Dave-thats awfully grim-thats an echo of my two am worries……
Dr Dave – at 20:17 That’s pretty scary stuff. I think they’ll have a hard time making medical people stay for 3 months without their families. Do you think he was serious about the suicide pills?
By the way, are you a medical doctor?
He also spoke in some detail about people in apartment buildings, trying to make their way down twenty flights in the dark, being ambushed, etc. He really fears we are just one pandemic blackout away from anarchy.
Bad flight. Enlightening, yes, but a really bad flight.
That’s an understatement, I’m afraid. 19th century a good outcome? Wow. I’m not so sure about this future of ours.
tjclaw1, we talked about the family issue and it seemed like his family had three months of preps, but if they had to flee they could join him in a dormitory room. I gather that this option is not open to his subordinates. He also mentioned that the “black pills” were Dilaudid, which is synthetic morphine.
By the way, I am a Ph.D., not an M.D., so I have whole a lot to learn about this subject.
Dr Dave-Your comments sure are scaring the heck out of me. it’s not that I have not thought of all this on my own, but it seems more real if someone else thinks about the same thing. Since I’m on a adrenaline high-what else did he say:-)
By the way, are you a medical doctor?
Scared I am… suicide? NO WAY - I am gonna survive this puppy and help build a better world.
worrywart, it seemed as though just about every time I got close to a hard and fast answer about something, he would balk and say that he was not at liberty to say anymore. He really wanted to talk openly, but was not at liberty to do so. However, he did have a lot to say about the collapse of the infrastructure and the supply chains. From there, he extrapolated on timetables for civil unrest and the compounding problems associated with looting, arson, and various forms of assault. All in all, I go the feeling that he held out no hope whatsoever for his city.
Since I had my laptop with me, I was able to show him my essay on prepping. He read it over and just nodded his head and did not contradict anything. My guess is the we at Flu Wikie have pretty much the same information he has received from the Feds.
Sorry, that was me at 21:53
So here’s the impossible $60 million dollar question — and I know others of you are thinking this too, so I will do us all a favor and spit it out —
Did he have any sense of how imminent this is?
(Just thought I’d give it a try…)
Dr. Dave, scary message you’ve brought us….I need to send you some comments about your paper that I got from my 2 sisters that might be helpful….I’ll do that tomorrow.
I have a question……..Anon_22 you said you’ve made your identity known to us, but I missed it somewhere….who are you and could you tell me why you decided to let us know who you are? You’re so well respected here, I never thought a thing about wondering who you ‘really’ were, so I’m curious!
Let me see, I can die of pandemic flu, of thirst, of some unchecked infection; I can freeze to death in my own home, ingest contaminated water, get murdered for my food, or accidentally explode a propane tank.
The suicide pills seem a little - superfluous? ;→
Have you ever noticed how many classical tragedies didn’t really have to end as they did? If Antigone hadn’t hanged herself in the dark vault, she would have found herself rescued forthwith by her fiance Haimon and a repentant Creon? The play would have ended in an a marriage, the classical formula for domestic comedy. If Romeo hadn’t offed himself, he would have had his Juliet. A lot of times the sole difference between the outcome in a comedy and a tragedy is that, in a comedy, characters exhibit resilience. They simply don’t give up, even when it looks as if it’s all over. That resilience is what enables rebirth and restoration. It is the truest test of the human spirit. A resilient spirit cannot keep us from catching the flu or dieing of it, but it will ensure that we do not succumb to the darkness when there lies ahead a possible dawn. If I die, so be it, but it will not be at my own hand.
__
Dr. Dave - thanks for sharing this. It’s helpful, really, because it confirms what we think we know about the gravity of the pandemic threat. We are not mistaken. We are not nuts. We are not spending money irresponsibly when we buy preps.
anon_22 – at 20:23 Well, I don’t know if you were around when we had those huge WHO debates. My response to your comment is: “so what else is new anyway.”
Yeah, I was around. And you’re right. Nothing new. It was more a comment than me looking for an answer or wisdom. Just me statin’ the obvious.
Thanks InKy for your last comments. More than once I have asked myself if I am “getting carried away” with a group momentum outside of reality. I am not overwhelmed, nor unwilling to face all this potentiality, but it does help to have some confirmation of the magnitude from other than from inside the forum discussion.
That’s true Inky. The suicide pills seemed a bit much, but who knows. Maybe the guy would be too devastated if all his family passed away but he did not. I can’t believe he meant he’d take the pills as soon as he got sick. But obviously the guy Tom spoke too was very worried.
Dr. Dave, what were his timetables for civil unrest after infrastructure collapse? Would it be compromising his privacy to mention what city he works in? And is your prepping essay available here at the fluwiki? Thanks.
InKy: suicide pills would be “superflous” LOL! Wouldn’t they just! Thanks for the wry laugh!
I’m-workin’-on-it – at 22:22
Well, it’s one thing to put your name on the web, its another to have it be repeated many times. So I will just refer you to the info in my profile if you don’t mind.
Why? I started to tell people I’m one of the moderators of the FluWiki in May in conferences because I wanted to establish some accountability for the things that I say. ie, this is who I am, this is where you can find the stuff that I write, and its where you can get back to me if what I say doesn’t work for you.
I was surprised by the responses, by the number of people who were interested in FluWiki. I also got to know some really good people, including top scientists like Taubenberger and Fedson, and a couple others who will remain unnamed, from whom I learnt a lot.
Then I was invited to speak at the National Academies, and of course my name came out on their website. At the same time, I was writing to newspapers in the UK, and I thought the media would always want to check you are who you say you are, so I decided to put my name on this site.
Did that answer your question?
Anon 22 thanks for sharing the demeanor of the WHO personal you spoke with. Im leaning toward no raise in the alert level. There is to many politicial/economic ramifications to raise the level untill we are in the middle of a full blown pandemic ie level 6..
The internet provides a cloak for all of us, nobody really knows who anyone is. That makes post on boards and in chat rooms suspect unfortunatly. I know you guys think this guy is legit. Time will tell. Frankly raising the alert level would only make what we already know official
Dr Dave Did the person you spoke with say how they were going to get the staff to show up in the first place? I believe he mentioned facilities for staffing levels of 150% thats making a big assumtion that they will show in large numbers. did he elaborate Are they planning on forcefully holding the ones who do show up. Id like to here more of the conversation you had.
I keep seeing planning that makes criticial assumtions that just are not going to happen. Unless TPTB know something I dont they are playing with some pretty funny numbers in all these plans they have.
anon_22 – at 23:24 Yes, thanks! It never occured to me to look at the profiles….I should do that more often. Thanks for your response.
john0 - at 23:00 I don’t know what Dr. Dave’s virologist has in mind in terms of scenarios which might induce him to opt for his suicide pills, but I am sure his concerns are legitimate, and I am not belittling them, though I did succumb to a little black humor.
I have thought about what I would do and how I would manage should one or both of my teenage children die during a pandemic. Would life still be worth living, worth fighting for, if I lived and they did not? I decided that it would, despite deepest grief. I heard a story on NPR the other day about an African woman who lost her daughter and felt that her life was over. While still deep in mourning, she was asked to take in a child orphaned by AIDS. She did. The authorities asked her to take another, and she took that one, too. Now she runs an orphanage and looks after many children. Her life has meaning.
We hope that we can bring our families through a pandemic. We do everything in our power to ensure that we and those we love will have a chance. A pandemic will change many things. It may rob us of what we love most or of our very lives. It may also make family of strangers, and no life that makes a contribution will be without purpose. The world will need its survivors.
It’s depessing to realize that history is repeating itself and that the pandemic phases are tied to economics and politics rather than science and public health. Sadly, I must agree that we will be at 6 when 4 is announced. Those of us working in the preparedness arena are working ourselves to a frazzle to get the word out; to try and stop just one more preventable death. H5N1 I cannot control, but I am hoping my efforts will prevent someone, some family, from dying of starvation or dehydration.
Sigh.
Who’s serving the RWFK?
Dr Dave – at 20:17
Making the assumption that there is perhaps 1/10,000 people who have the level of interest in pandemic flu that fluwikians have, I find it incredibly coincidental that Dr. Dave happened to be seated next to a virologist.
I’m not saying it isn’t true, I’m just saying it’s hard to believe.
Dr. Dave said he is on an airplane at least twice a week. Most people on planes are businessmen or professionals going to meetings, conventions, etc. That at some point, he would run into a health care professional is not unlikely. Yes, less likely that he would run into the head of Virology of a major medical institution, but in no way impossible. It is still a rumor and should be weighted as such.
Dr. Dave. I’m not doubting what you heard, but I’m relative certain I could provide you with conversations with experts which would contradict your aquaintances thoughts. I worry about the validity of anyone that is sure, one way or the other about anything.
Enza-best I can do is stand a round of Virtual RWFK. I’d like to especially toast INKY for her “resiliant words” this evening, and to say that while I too, am terrified of the propane tank, my dh says its almost impossible to accidently blow one up.
A toast also goes out to everyone here for all your work, and good caring thoughts, and to everyone who is staying up late trying to track this monster.
Cheers.
Green Mom We had a propane tank blow last year in a Amish home it was horrible.
Dr. Dave:
In a wierd sort of way he’s fully prepped isn’t he? Too bad he will eat and drink supplies that people who want to live for a reason will need before he checks out with his dollies. Have you gone to the universities web site to see if they have a written plan? It would be interesting to see if he spoke true to you, and that’s one way to check if you care to. For my mental impression—was he as old as the hills? He sounded like it.
Janetn- Oh-how awful. We have a propane tank which worries me but dh keeps saying its fine. I see now that I’m going to have to have a word….
Inky-I’m sorry- I certainly didn’t mean to lead you astray about the propane tank.
Green Mom Glad to pass along the warning. The tank was in the house attached to a heater. The house exploded. Killed everyone in the home .The mom was pregnant they did save the baby. Her husband thought the tank was safe too he wasnt home when it blew lives with the guilt I imagine. If you have problems convincing your DH I could look for old newspaper articles [ I have a DH too know how they can be]. Let me know
Regarding Dr. Daves encounter: I once knew a physicist who was rather brilliant, but was prone to flashes of anger over strange things-like if a waiter brought him a drink without ice, he’d just fly into a rage. Perhaps this virologist had a mood disorder or personality which caused him to have an extreamly gloomy outlook. Just because he’s a scientist doesn’t excempt him from wearing a tin hat, or being extreamly pessimistic.
I can completely see Dr. Dave sitting next to a virologist-one of those weird seredipity moments. Ive been interested in subjects and ended up meeting an authority on that subject by chance.
JaneTN- Our tank is outside with a line running in. I wonder if there was a leak? That happened close by here a couple of years ago, except it was a keroscene heater that somehow had spilled or leaked or fumed and someone in the house lit a match and boom! I do remember almost everyone was out of the house-but can’t remember now what happened to the person lighting the match-if s/he survived. I’m off to bed now, but boy first thing in the morning are we going to have a little chat!
Inky-
Didn’t mean to make you feel I didn’t appreciate the humor.
Well, I am with the annons on this one but I don’t mind putting my name on it. The most scary part of this is the way it is being swallowed. hook, line and sinker IMHO
Enough already – at 22:17
hmmmmm… interesting name. FWIW, it’s not ME… the “real” or “other” EA.
JohnO - at 3:07
No worries. The irony of a suicide pill during a pandemic just popped into my head right alongside the concerns everyone shares, reinforced by this virologist’s take on what a pandemic may look like. Humor has a function, of course, easing tension a little.
Janetn and Green Mom - My only comfort is that our little ProCat heater takes those 1-lb. canisters, so I have smaller explosions to worry about. I’m not going to try refilling them. That’s such a sad story about the Amish family.
lol EnoughAlready-I don’t think it was an intentional theft, I think the poster had just had enough.
anon for this one – at 00:02
There was more than a just little coincidence in this encounter. We both received our doctorates from the same university and we went to high school just one town apart from each other. We also had a mutual acquaintence in the southwest. I exchaged business cards with this person, so I have no reason to doubt his credentials. He, too, is in his mid-50s. He is expecting to rely upon medical students to supplement the professonal staff of the hospital. As he explained, many of the students will not be able to return to their homes.
One of his darkest comments was about the possibility that vast areas of the mega-city in which he resides will be allowed to burn themselves out. That, apparently, is why he already has aquired the Dilaudid. Judging from his demeanor he was very serious. As for time-line predictions, he would not speculate, even a little. He did offer, however, that there was a second virus out there that worries him just as much as H5N1. I pressed him on Dengue and Chik and whatever is killing thr swine in China, but he would not elaborate. Remember, this was not a 60 Minutes interrogation. This was just a chat between business travelers, and until he read my flu essay from my laptop, he did not want to discuss it. All in all I got the feeling that he told me more than he should have.
Does this guy know more than we do? Absolutely. However, I surmise that some of his fear is due to the large, volatile city where he lives and works.
If I remember anything else he might have stated that we do not already know, I’ll post it later today. (That comment about a second virus was pretty unsettling.)
Suicide pills… for his family… that he is bringing to the dormitory bunker. Another hmmmm…
Maybe it’s just me, but there is no way in Sam Hill I’d be thinking that “strategy” for my families survival. Seriously, I’d be thinkin’ of bunkering them in some remote cave (hey, it’s working in some parts of the world) before I’d be considering the Hitler alternative.
About those 10 people, plus the Vietnamese guy who had a herion pill “explode in his stomach”--- who landed on a plane in Australia: Wasn’t it just the Vietnamese guy who was “suspected” of drug dealing? I didn’t read in that article that the other people were suspected of drugs… just the VN guy. Is there another article, or did I miss something?
About the psychic stuff--- well, it’s just a silly little stupid nomenclature thing, actually, but… I think it is just unfair and sexist that it has “chic” in it. ~snort~
Okay… my input into the topic of this thread: New Rumor-
DH just finished a 3 day seminar on emergency preparation, including pandemic (which was followed/on the heels of a “rushed” trip to NY City on same topic) (in other words, he is being “summoned to” these “emergency” seminars all dealing with pandemic preparation). The initial email included a statement that had the entire management staff globally in a tizzy… I know that the phone rang from the time they figured out DH was home, until he made it clear he WAS going to bed. The statement was that there would be a prayer room/quite room available to attendees. DH told me about it saying, “In nearly 30 years of corporate meetings held all over the world I have NEVER seen or heard about a “prayer/quite room”… I just don’t know what this is about.” It had everybody in a tizzy. (Personally, I think it got their attention and had them on their toes… good strategy, IMHO.) Bottom line--- this corporation is taking the threat of a pandemic very seriously. There were MD’s attending, from both sides of the fence… pandemic will happen at some point and the there is no way we are to technically advanced (i.e., we have “warning systems” to circumvent this type thing). CDC representatives were there… no mention of WHO stepping this thing up a level. There did seem to be an urgency to prepare. The corporation is trying to figure out how to safely keep their personel out in the field… keeping oil production moving. (HOw to handle decontamination, etc.) BTW, I asked DH about the “prayer/quite room”… he said it WAS there, but he didn’t notice that it was utilized… but, he said he did notice there were a LOT of trips to the bathroom!
Tom and Green Mom,
I’ve changed my email in the profile, I know that one will work. I’d like to chat with both of ya via email if thats ok with you. I’d rather not clog the boards with this though.
Dr Dave If your contact was on the level it answers a lot of questions.The National Guard presence indicates a federal plan to protect key viral research centers.The 50/10 infection/fatality rates are close to what the rest of the world had in 1918 indicating that is the planning base.CDC plans are window dressing whereas the real expectation is for a Mad Max scenario due to infrastructure collapse.The statement that “the hospital has been preparing for several months”coincides with recent reports of limited H2H occurance.Three months storage suggests that is expected length of the first wave.It really does fit.
Could the second item of concern be SARS?
Remember this is a rumor page, but on behalf of Dr. Dave, I attended a county meeting last month and posted some of the info. Much to my surprise, a lurker here had been at the same meeting. Now what are the chances of that!! He/She doesn’t post much, but knew what was said at that meeting. So, one never knows.
Just a quick comment on the suicide pills mentioned in Dr Dave’s post. I think all of you are making the wrong assumptions concerning what they might be used for. In all likelyhood they are for family members that contract the panflu and have all the indications of a terminal case. Could there be a time when it is obvious the person is dying, but are in great pain while going through the final stages? During the Spanish Flu there were numerous patients so sick and exhibiting certain signs the doctors would take one look and know they were going to die. I strongly suspect it is for this reason the virologist has stockpiled the suicide pills that he has.
Now, for clarification, this is not something that I necessarily condone. But it makes some sense and I can understand the rationale for doing so. I will not stand in judgement of the stockpiling or the possible use of the pills, but it is not a choice I would make. Ok, I will leave it there, and hope we do not get into a long drawn out discussion of euthanasia.
Okieman, that occured to me, too. From any account from the medical professionals here, dying of air hunger is just horrific, and can take days.
i guess I reall am going to have to see this “Mad Max” movie y’all keep mentioning….
I doubt the suicide pills are a line of first defense. I imagine he may be thinking along the lines of, “No water. No food. Dying slowly over a period of days or weeks. Or end it now.”
I agree it seems radical. But he’s just planning for a worst case scenario that’s somewhat worse than the one that most of us are envisioning. And if he’s in a major metropolitan area, he may not be far off. Not saying I agree with his plan.
I thought of that also, esp. given that the pills were a type of morphine. I didn’t want to bring it up-pretty grim stuff, and I also don’t want to get into the whole euthanasia thing. However, I have had the awful experience of sitting with a dying person who was begging for her life to be over and a oh so helpful hospice nurse who just happened to leave a big ole bottle of morphine “just in case” To put y’all minds at rest-her release didn’t come from my hand, but, given what I know viscerally about that experience-and what I think I know about the Spanish/Avian flu-yeah, I can see having some morphine tablets.
The Dr. doctor Dave is referring to has been saying this for some time. He is not at all quiet about his feelings about the pandemic. In fact I believe either Dr. Dave or this Dr. has downplayed it so as not to frighten us off. The last time I heard his CFR it was MUCH higher than 10%. He is am extreemest and many of his peers disagree with his thoughts on the pandemic. That said I don’t know of anyone more qualified to understand it than him.
Green Mom – at 02:39 --- More than likely, with the propane tank inside next to a heater, the pressure in the tank built up to unacceptable levels, causing the overflow valve to open, releasing propane into the room with the heater running, then boom! That’s why bulk propane should never be stored inside under any circumstances.
Lines running from an outside tank to the house are generally checked for leaks every few months by the company that services/refills the tanks…
BB- Yes-thats pretty much what dh said this morning. He said our huge outside tank was safe-(I was worried about all that flammable stuff next to the house) but that smaller tanks were a different story. He’s pretty conscientious about that sort of thing-gas and keroscene containers are stored in a shed away from the house.
Thanks.
I understand that the morphine, suicide pills, would be used as a humane means to ease suffering of family members. I guess my question would be why bring the family to a place that sounds like ground zero? I just think I’d be trying to get my family to a remote place to shelter in place. A place that had less chancee for so much “exposure.” If I had time and means and information that was indicitive of “outbreak”… I guess I’d just be thinkking of isolation. On the other hand, it may be that this individual thinks this would be the “best” place to SIP his family.
Dr. Dave,
They anticipate a 50% infection rate and a 10% case fatality rate.
That is very sobering.
That’s 15,000,000 million dead in the U.S.( just from the virus). Spread that over 4 months and we have 120,968 dead a day. Or 5,040 a hour, or 84 a minute.
Absolutely mind numbing.
Should read 15,000,000 dead not 15,000,000 million
JWB at 10:11
And that estimate doesn’t include any deaths due to collateral damage. Unimaginable.
JWB - at 10:11
Wow. I just hate it when people actually run the numbers like that. But now I’m going to email that bit of handy calcluation you’ve just done around to my friends and associates. Thanks JWB.
Just last night I was out with some friends and I’m thinking to myself, “The panflu can’t be real. All this isn’t going to go away. I’m just crazy.
It’s all so surreal.
(Shown them the 35% fatality rate from the Hobart Australia conf. this month?)
The day after tomorrow – at 08:59
“The Dr. doctor Dave is referring to has been saying this for some time.”
I’m confused. I don’t recall Dr. Dave having mentioned the doctor in question by name. How is it that you know who he is talking about?
And if you tell me you were sitting across from them on the plane, it’ll be the last time I read the rumors thread, LOL. ; )
Dr. Dave
Being that you are a doc you will undoubtedly not be offended if I am a little skeptical. First of all why the secrecy? Why not name him? I am sure the medical center plan is a public record somewhere so why the secrecy? Heck you don’t have to name him just name the school. Also suicide pills? Come on you don’t to be at such a high level in life then just quite it all if things get bad. Sure people commit suicide all the time but very few make such elaborate plans for it while planning for survival. By the nature of his planning for BF shows he is not willing to just shuck it all away. Does anybody here vouch for Dr. Dave?
Are we there yet – at 10:51
And if you tell me you were sitting across from them on the plane, it’ll be the last time I read the rumors thread, LOL. ; )
I was thinking the same thing!! Either that or The Day After Tomorrow IS the doctor in question!
BP
The pills are for a loved ones who are dieing in pain. Or in this case most likely slowly suffocating to death.
JWB: Thanks for your responce however below is the direct quote from Dr. Dave.
“he did acknowledge that he has a stock of suicide pills for himself and his closest friends and relatives. “
Betty earlier wrote: “I was just re-reading the article on Dr. Nabarro’s statement the other day (couldn’t remember where it was on here, so I’m putting this in Rumors) and I noticed that they say he just returned from a “fact finding” trip. The thing is he went to Indonesia, Cambodia, Myanmar and AUSTRALIA? Why would Australia be included in that trip?”
Nabarro (along with many other international observers) was in Australia during Australia’s huge drill simulating the arrival of a pandemic.
You can read about it at http://tinyurl.com/urypd.
The headline states: “Australia ready for bird flu: Abbott”
But that was all in the headline writer’s mind. In the article, Minister Abbott says nothing of the sort. Typical media non-hype.
Dr. Dave @ 7:04 - Quote:
“He did offer, however, that there was a second virus out there that worries him just as much as H5N1.”
One of the diseases out there that is worrisome is the MDR TB (multiple drug resistant tuberculosis), but even more so is XDR TB (extremely drug resistant TB).
MDR TB, is defined as strains that are resistant to at least two of the main first-line TB drugs. Treatment requires the use of second-line drugs, which are more toxic and more expensive.
XDR TB is defined as strains that are not only resistant to the front-line drugs, but also three or more of the six classes of second-line drugs. This, according to Dr Paul Nunn, coordinator of the WHO team at the Stop TB department, makes it virtually untreatable.
I have found concerns on various sites that some of the existant diseases (dengue, chick, TB or even AIDS are combining with H5N1 to create a “super-bug” that is lethal and highly contagious. No link for this, just concerns I have seen in my googling.
Don’t judge why that Dr. said he had the pills - probably wishes he hadn’t mentioned it, and, who needs to be outed and judged on the internet for giving in to talking to the rare person who also knows about being in a pre-pandmeic alert period?
Medical reasons, and, if say, this person was not going to take an assault rifle to be able to defend family from gangs or criminals who have nothing else to lose and are on a last spree?
Probably just trying to have as many options/control as he can get. And, sitting deathwatch is hard, if the person is suffering.
I do not think my community has stockpiled morphine, for the people who will be triaged out to let finish dying slowly. Doubtless some family members will wish we had. (Far as I know, our town has bought no supplies, of any kind.)
Super-bug as in co-infections or a combining of 2 different virii(?) into 1.
I can see the first happening, but am not sure if the second is biologically feasible.
crfullmoon – at 11:20
I am not judging, I don’t care if he has them or not. I just want to see if this report is real or not. Lets let Dr. Dave respond to my and others questions. I am skeptical when there is secrecy involved when there is no need to be. Lets get the information out there, enough with rumours.
cactus – at 11:23 am not sure if the second is biologically feasible.
esp. since TB is bacterial, not viral, iirc.
What about the MRSA (flesh-eating bacteria) problem, or, the XDR TB, cactus? They both kill too quickly, especially if normal medical care were to get disrupted and either of those get loose somewhere, untreated.
MRSA isn`t the “flesh eating” bacteria, it`s a staph bug that isn`t touched by our usual antibiotics, ie penicillins.We all have staph on our skin, it does not usually cause any harm. It`s when the wrong variety gets inside our bodies via a cut or a catheter or a dirty needle, that`s when troubles occur.
Flesh eating bacteris is usually a strep infection gone wild. It`s nasty and hard to treat.Same bug that causes strep throat. Scary,huh?
Now we are trying to find out what virus the unkown Dr. is scared of. Why is the deadly virus secret? If it is deadly virus lets find out from Dr. Dave what the virus is. All this falls under public health and science not the x-files. No reason for secrecy.
BP – at 11:27 ….Lets get the information out there, enough with rumours.
I thought this was the rumors thread…..
I’m slowly slinking away…..
I’m-workin’-on-it – at 11:36
So we are to be sheeple and read all posts of rumours and not question? I thought BF was a serious topic here on the fluwiki. Folks, we could be talking about millions of deaths here or maybe nothing to worry about it all. If there really is a virloligist somewhere with such plans as quoted by Dr. Dave then I think it is critical for us in the public to know. If it is just BS then we should know that too.
From Dr. Dave’s experience, I have seriously considered that if I cannot change my situation for prepping soon that a “final alternative” may be needed.
I went through hospice care for my dying father, drowning in his own lungs from cancer and emphysema, providing him with more frequent doses of morphine as the time came to let him slip away quietly, rather than in a panic, on Christmas Eve.
Do I think that if my young children get sick that someone will ride to the rescue with a drug or respirator if TSHTF? What do you think? If I am sick, will there be a “rescue” for me? I think the idea of “suicide” pills of morphine are simply misstated hospice care for impending death from failed lungs. No one is coming to help us, no matter how much we wish or prep.
I never completed my write up from the NJ conference last month because I pretty much gave up hope for trying to outwit, outlast, or outplay this game of “Survivor”. That is why I have returned to only occasional updates and lurking. I’m still unemployed, but since I left focusing on “Flu wiki-world” and shifted back to focusing on the present and near-term realities of my life I have had some progress. Like I said a few weeks ago, I still hope to have time for things to change and find a rabbit hole to duck into before TSHTF. However, my experience now lends to the belief that if I stay focused on a pandemic I find myself more willing to think about final options, and less likely to think about having anything to survive for.
Maybe that is what Dr. Dave’s source is feeling after months or years too close to the nightmare scenarios?
You’re having a rough morning aren’t you? I have too. It’s something David heard and he passed along. He isn’t being ‘mysterious’ about it. Question, but don’t grill.
above was for BP
TRay75, I was thinking about you yesterday and wondering how things were with you. I had a great big slap on the face this AM, and I’m deeply wounded from it — just so deflated. Not everything is BF, but when you’re told to dwell on something less depressing and BF is the most positive thing you think about these days, well…….sorta leaves you in the dumps.
I know he said a “virus”, but my bet would be on TB. see my posting in News for today.
cactus – at 11:34. Oops; I’m “mixin’ my metaphears”. Either a multi-drug resistant, killer staph or strep would be a problem during an influenza pandemic, or even now I guess, if they got “superspread” somewhere vulnerable. XDR TB sure would be bad pre-pandemic, too.
I’m-workin’-on-it – at 11:45
Grill? Rough morning? HUH? I will question anyone who makes such statements with NOTHING to back it up. It is how educated people learn and grow. If you don’t wish to question and learn please feel free not to do so.
Even a virologist might be guilty of over concern. From the description it sounds like the man has influence in his daprtment so the level of preparedness where he works might be more a reflection on his own worries than an actual level of threat.
Hi everyone. I for one appreciate Dr. Dave taking the time to tell us of his encounter on the airplane…I have no doubt he is telling us the truth.
I think this well demonstrates to us that professionals are not God…they look into the ‘looking glass’ and overreact just like everyone else.
I also believe that if the virologist in question made the comment about ‘suicide pills’, then Dr. Dave is ethically required to tell us.
Virologists spend all of their time thinking about viruses…so I don’t think that TB is the other bug and drug resistant TB is not a new story.
I think he was commenting on other emerging infuenza viruses that could also cause a pandemic. Two of the viruses are presently in North America. H7 subtypes and the H3N8 strain that is presently causing significant problems with dogs. Either of these viruses could cause a pandemic tomorrow morning.
The other two viruses that could produce a pandemic would be SARS and Nipah viruses…both exotic…both affect and kill humans…both originating in Bat populations and caused by excessive human populations interacting with excessive farm animal populations at the interface with remote wild animal populations.
Different viruses cannot combine with other viruses and viruses cannot combine with other bacteria. In other words, TB (bacteria) can not interact with influenza…and influenza and SARS etc. cannot combine to cause a more dangerous influenza.
Dr. Dave. Thanks. The information is disturbing to me but I am glad you shared…it proves that the heightened level of concern of authorities isn’t disappearing because of the relative silence at the moment.
If I have had a conversation I think would be valuable to share with the community, I’m going to be disinclined to share it if posters are going to accuse me of posting BS. Dr Dave has been active on this community for some time; he’s not an unknown quantity. Each of us has to decide what to make of the perspective the virologist shared. We all want more hard information than we are going to get about H5N1, but there’s little point in querying someone about a conversation on a plane as if that person had published the same information as fact in a major newspaper. This is the rumors thread, and Dr. Dave posted his conversation in the right place. We need to read what we find here with that in mind.
Well said InKy, it’s fine to question, but things get a little extreme here sometimes & others suffer because of it.
Don’t shoot the messenger if you don’t like/can’t handle the message.
Information is not always available to the scientific standard of verification.
We take what we can get and make educated guesses.
Watch what they DO not what they SAY.
uk bird – at 11:58 Even a virologist might be guilty of over concern. From the description it sounds like the man has influence in his daprtment so the level of preparedness where he works might be more a reflection on his own worries than an actual level of threat.
Or, more likely, it might be a reflection of his own worries due to what he does know being a virologits…any ways, tis safer to believe the latter.
Dr. Dave, I found your posting very interesting and I thank you for telling us about it.
uk bird – at 11:58 You stated “From the description it sounds like the man has influence in his daprtment so the level of preparedness where he works might be more a reflection on his own worries than an actual level of threat.” From what I read, this facility does not appear to be a small medical clinic or community hospital. From the descriptions, it seems like a large metropolitan hospital/medical school. IMHO, one person is not going to be able to make these costly changes/decisions for the organization. There would need to be input from not only the hospital, but also the medical school, the city health officials/disaster managers, and state health officers/disaster managers.
As far as the suicide pills goes, while I could not do it myself, I understand it. Many years ago (as a nurse), I used to work in an oncology unit. This was during the time when physicians would not prescribe medications (pain meds or other medications for comport) because the dying person might become addicted. These people were in incredible amounts of pain. For those poor individuals with lung involvement, it was worse. These people would scratch at their necks in panic and would struggle for every breath until they were exhausted because they were slowly drowning. It was far from being a peaceful way of dying. Most people could not stand to stay in the rooms with their family members and watch them suffer. So, we stayed with them, held their hands and did what we could do to comfort them (but nothing really helped them) until they died. While I do not know the specific motivation for the pills, it might be scenarios like this for his friends and family members that he does not want happening.
I’m-workin’-on-it – at 11:50 - I heard that! Reality is never fair, and how we handle it is based upon our experiences and our environment. In another time oer another place this whole thing may have been different in how it effects any of us. I hope you get past your slap as best you can, and as soon as you can. A lot of the rumors we hear are just that, rumors. I can’t judge another on what they report to a thread like this, only take the data and crunch it until a truth pops out the other end - be that an evaluation of truth or BS - it will still be subject to experiential filter.
Well said bird Guano - at 12:17.
“Dr. Dave” has said he is not a medical doctor.
IMHO, we all need to be careful in giving too much weight to anyone’s opinion unless we know them personally on this board.
“Dr. Chris” was a poster on another discussion board. He was very free with his medical opinions. Turned out to be a laywer. He was banned from the board due to lying, deliberate misinterpretation of facts, redundent end of the world comments etc.
Draw your own conclusions.
BP,
Sorry for the delay in responding. Here are couple of clarifications, but then I think I will just drop off the face of the earth for a while and try to get a grip.
I travel by air 45 weeks each year. I fly from Chicago to over 30 different airports in North America. I average over 150,000 air miles on 125+ flight segments. It is very common for me to meet upper management people whose companies are developing pandemic plans. Even so, I was astonished to be sitting next to this person.
The “second virus” was not named and when I asked, he declined to state it. There were several moments during my conversation when he was unable to respond to my questions. I understood that, as anyone would, and I also knew that if I really pressed him for hard and fast answers he was likely to simply clam up.
I assumed that the Dilaudid “suicide pills” for himself and 27 others were intended for euthanasia, not as an alternative to starvation. I did not need any clarification on this issue, so I did not ask for any. He was visibly trembling when he said this to me. He and I both have children who are entering the prime demographic for the “cytokine storm”. This is not a subject than anyone can talk about easily.
I will not identify this person. That would be a betrayal of his trust. Even if I gave you a name and an institution it would not change what he said or the profound impact it had upon me. I only shared it with Flu Wikie because somewhere, at a very high level, important medical institutions are being told to brace themselves for a very bad scenario. As such, his comments to me really serve to confirm much of what we at Flu Wikie already suspected.
I think I’ll sign off now. This thing has me just about coming unglued and I really need a break from it.
Thanks for all of the good advice you folks have posted. Good luck to you and yours.
Okiedokie - at 12:25 Or, more likely, it might be a reflection of his own worries due to what he does know being a virologits…any ways, tis safer to believe the latter.
But since we’re all here, we already believe that BF is scary. Does Dr Dave’s story (valuable though it is) tell us anything that we didn’t already know? We shouldn’t be alarmed by people in the know, being prepared or even scared. The reality of what we DO know about BF is enough to make each of us consider our safety and act upon it. Why should virologists behave differently?
What the guy couldn’t tell us is if we any closer to an H5N1 pandemic. That’s the sort of news that should make us more nervous than we are now.
Very Skeptical- I’m A very suspicious person, and at this point in time, I don’t think Dr, Dave is impersonating anyone. True, anyone can read books, and post information, claiming to be this or that. Until I read something from his posts that waves a red flag at me, I will continue to listen to what this man has to say. Don’t be so skepital that you can’t have an open mind. “Don’t believe, but Don’t disbelieve.”
Group hugs everyone. Well now do we all FEEL better? Now we have that out of the way, why is that no one wishes to find out even what med center we are talking about here. I know many of your are absolutely convinced there will be a pandemic from BF so anyone who may be of any significance in the med field whom reinforces your opinion you all accept without question. That is how group think works and it is not a very good way to process data. This is the reason I left this board 6 months ago. Very few here like to participate in critical thinking. Now you can go back to reinforcing your beliefs with each other.
InKy – at 12:06 While I am in general agreement with you, I thought one of ideas behind the rumors thread was to identify/communicate rumors and then attempt to coroborate or disprove them for the benefit of all. I think that Dr Dave’s mention of the suicide pills puts him in a position of having to retain confidentiality of the source which is unfortunate as I don’t feel that this information really gains us much. Whereas if Dr Dave had kept that tidbit of info to himself, he should have able to at least identify the Southwestern University. With that knowledge, we could have begun to determine the accuracy of the information passed to Dr Dave. Keep in mind, it is not the statements of Dr Dave that should be under scrutiny, but the information he recieved from an unidentified source. A source that is a completely unknown quantity to us here. How we approach final/terminal suffering is more of an individual issue/dillemma that will rarely (if ever) see societal consensus IMHO.
Hi BP - when I first read Dave’s post, a lot of the same questions raced thru my mind. I think Dave is solid and the more I think about it, I realize this is the “Rumors” page and I would rather Dave post about his flight than not.
I have to respect him for not divulging the name/organization of the virologist. Can you imagine what would happen if he did and somebody at his organization is a lurker/poster here and put two and two together and started bugging him to his face about suicide pills, etc.?
I think Dave is doing the honorable and appropriate thing.
Thank you, Dr. Dave.
Please take care, regroup, and come back very soon. I for one will welcome you back warmly and greatly appreciate your courage and willingness to share. I’m sure there are many who agree with me. Thanks.
Analyst4mkts – at 12:49 I suppose one way to find out the information you want is to have FW posters from Southwestern states to contact medical school/university/hospital facilities in larger metropolitan areas to ask what their pandemic plan is. If nothing else, it would be interesting to compare and contrast them.
BP.
You said you left six months ago because …”Very few here like to participate in critical thinking.”…
I’m not sure that is the case. I now that you are a critical thinker so that you would have observed what has happened in the last twelve months…Q.lake, spread to Europe, Russia Mediteranean and the Middle East and Africa, the two mutations comments from Dr. Webster and Osterhaus, Dr. Webster possible 50% mortality statement, the outbreak Turkey proving H-H and Karo proving H-H-H…and I could go on.
The only evidence that I have seen presented by the skeptics is that it has not happened until now…in my opinion, that is not a reasonable argument because nature does not work that way…the pot never boils when we are watching…there is little that happens in nature that is not unexpected…a shock of sorts.
If there is anything you can give us…that would indicate that a pandemic is not going to happen imminently, whatever imminently is in nature’s time, I would sure like to hear it…
…I would be absolutely the happiest person in the world, if I could be proven wrong. For what it’s worth, I have believed for two years that it would happen this winter…I have seen nothing that would not reinforce that viewpoint…and the relative silence at the moment means nothing to me because the most dangerous guard dog is always the one that doesn’t bark.
Please, give us the reasons why you believe that a pandemic is not going to happen…Thanks.
TRay 75-I’m sorry about the loss of your father. Ive also been thinking about you and hoping things are looking up. You have my best wishes.
JWB- I have that surreal feeling too. Its like we’re all trapped in some bad sci-fi disaster movie, you know, where the good guys (thats us!) know theres this big nasty thing about to happen and they can’t stop it or get the authorities to listen.
Workin’ on it-I read Dr.Daves post last night-and there was very little sleep for me! I’m feeling really out of sorts today, and the weather IS NOT helping-grey,grey,grey… However-I’m not in panic mode-no rushing off to do another prep trip, just kind of watching and waiting.
In general- I want to second Bird Guano-yes I feel we need to question the rumours-but lets not attack the messanger!
In support of Dr. Dave,
This is a “Rumors” thread! I am thankful for the input from Dr. Dave since I rarely venture out from my little town. Thank God I left one of the country’s top ten crowded cities 5 years ago. A city just like the one where that head of virology is apparently living.
HERE -We should all feel free, encouraged to share what we hear “in the field” without ridicule or people accusing us of “making” things up. This holds especially true for long term members who have been actively posting and discussing for some time.
After no BF news for the entire year, a main Oklahoma TV channel (#5) has been running a nightly news item all of this week.
I’m making another prep run.
Dr.Dave reminds me of a reporter who has important case breaking information, but can not reveal his sources. It’s got to be nawing at him, that he can’t given us all the information he knows. It would tear me up knowing something like this, but can not tell the very people, who’s lives it affects, and deal with his own personal aspect on it.
Regarding the southwestern city, if you read Dr. Dave’s posts it is not too hard to figure out which city is the one he is most likely referring to.
BP, what difference would it make to know those specific details about the virologist? Will you look up his vita, examine his research papers? Maybe you think he’s a fictional character? To “out” him would be disgraceful, not to mention destructive, shutting off the flow of information that we seek. This is a rumors thread. jmo.
Tom DVM – at 12:59
Thanks for your reasoned posts. I should not have been so general with my comments but sometimes you have to shake folks up a bit in order to get that gray matter working. I am on the fence on the whole issue as to BF pandemic. I have prepared as it only prudent to do so. However, I do have a lot of doubts and when new information as posted by Dr. Dave comes across my desk I like to incorporate into my thoughts. As far as I know Dr. Dave may be 100 percent correct or he may be posting complete BS however I thought this thread was about getting to the truth of rumors not just reading and accepting whatever is posted. As far as ethics go I find it totally unethical to post such a statement without verification. Dr. Dave knows full well what I am talking about. Dr. Dave knows full well all the plans he quoted from the unknown doctor will be in the public record so why the secrecy? Sorry folks, in such stark life and death matters we cannot just sit back and be so accepting. We are not discussing last night’s episode of Housewives. We are talking about the possible deaths of millions of people.
BP: I really hate it when people presume to think for me, believing no one is quite as clever as they are. Why do you presume to know what everyone else is thinking and that we are so devoid of the critical thinking skills only you seem to posess? I am perfectly capable of evaluating the information I get here. Some I buy, some I don’t, but I don’t need to stomp all over any differing views to validate my own. I for one am aware this is a “Rumors” thread and can accept it as such; I ask for more information as available and don’t feel I need to demand, accuse or insinuate to get it.
One thing about internet “voices” is that they really do reveal the person behind them, perhaps in ways they don’t intend. Blusterers, bs’ers and blowhards are usually easy to spot.
And I would like to give a hearty “Thanks!” to Dr. Dave for communicating his conversation, and hope he continues to elaborate on it as he can.
What difference would it make if we knew who Dave was talking about? It doesn’t/won’t change anything for me.
He did the right things, posted on the rumors thread, and not revealing the identity of the virologist.
This is very difficult for all off us.
Dave, take care.
Jane – at 13:22
Because if he is named it adds automatically credibility to the statement. What is the outing? All such plans are public records. What is the secrecy for? What is this mysterious disease? Why is that a secret? He has plans for BF Pandemic what is the big deal? These are public positions funded by taxpayers we aren’t talking about the nuclear codes for launching here. Disgraceful? Why?
BP, I asked yesterday who anon_22 is since he said he’d revealed his identity & I knew he was well respected here. Instead of giving me his name, he politely chose to direct me to his profile which STILL didn’t have his name, (but DID have an email address) and mention of a medical relationship he has had in which he was a speaker on pandemic topics.
I didn’t question why he didn’t type his name even though he’d already revealed who he was in other apparently traceable ways; I don’t think you would have challenged him about his reasoning to respond in the way he did, but maybe you already know who he is….I’m still trying to figure it out thru sleuthing before I actually break down and email him. :-)
I just don’t see why Dr. Dave should have been challenged either. If this were on the news thread, YES, I could see asking for a link, a clue, a tidbit more and if not getting it then asking the poster to post to THIS rumors thread instead.
And bottom line, he’s not told us anything any differently than the ‘known’ big names here-and they have their secrets too. He just happened to hear it in person and now has that “high” that Goju had after his pandemic meeting that got him fired up, which was a good thing. A lot of good has come from his getting passionate about his approach.
And I’m glad to know you’re prepping to the extent you feel is justified.
Northstar – at 13:25
I saw Elvis yesterday. What is the net effect of that rumor? Nothing. I talked to the head of the CDC yesterday and she is prepping for 1 year and has sent her family to an island in the pacific. What is the effect of that rumor? Big difference isn’t there? So I would think we would want to sort of filter various rumors. Since this is a community of folks information should be vetted in some way otherwise what is the point of even being here?
Really BP? You’ve met Elvis? How’s he doing?
I accept we have to be skeptical but not to the point of killing all rumours. Much of what we say cannot be proved but it doesn’t make it untrue. I doubt many of us would drop the virologist in the soup, even if we doubted what he’d told us so I don’t think Dr Dave’s reluctance to name the guy is even significant.
At this point, it would be odd to think that some of the institutions preparing for H5N1 aren’t taking a stronger line than the majority.
If the rumor thread is way too upsetting to you, then why read it? It isn`t in the rules that you MUST read every thread. I get totally bogged down on the power threads, so I give them a pass. Sorta like Niman`s threads. I never could make heads or tails, so I just quit reading them.
And I met James Dean, man he hasn`t aged well. He was having coffee with John Lennon. They stated they are prepped for 6 months.
BP – at 13:48
If this were the news thread, then you have a point in asking for verification. However it is the rumors thread, and I appreciate Dr. Dave’s sharing it here.
Lighten up a little, this is not an inquisiton.
BP this is a rumor page. That is why verification is not required. It is your choice as to what weight you decide to put on the info here. Verification, reveling sources ect. is not required on this page period. If you dont want to give any credence to the information dont read this thread simple solution. There are plenty of other threads that are vetted.
This is like a song that hasn’t been released yet. “Six Lucid Dreams “ is the name of the record. The words are…… “ I’m so hungry, But I can’t eat. I’m so thirsty, But I can’t drink… I’m so tired but I can’t sleep….” Don’t recall the rest of the words….Perhaps someone seeing their loved ones in that situation..Suffering ….would make sure they have a way out. Didn’t people have cyanide pills during the second World War.To avoid torture, and some things that people endure during terminal illness is pure torture.Personally the idea that someone might have suicide pills does not upset me, but I have no religeous issues in that regard. Look, Indonesia is one big mess. Not just the avian flu issue. There is mud spilling out of the earth that has displaced 10,000 people and may be belching mud for the next hundred years. The world has volcanos that could bring on the next ice age, or years when no crops will grow. There is drug resistant T.B. Dengue, Chik, so much. Some people are disturbed and pessimistic, some deeply so.I don’t feel the least suprised if someone is thinking this. I and the rest of you should already have absorbed a great deal of data. We have explored the past in great detail, all of the major plagues. I think we have a lot under our belts that would keep us from overreaction.This is a rumor thread. Someone heard something.Take it or leave it. I’m going to leave it for the time being.WE can’t vet rumors. We can only doubt them. I hope this doesn’t close the rumor thread.
I thought this thread was about getting to the truth of rumors not just reading and accepting whatever is posted.
This thread was created to post rumors that have been heard or read, not to try to dissect and quantify them. If anyone wants to try to follow up on them, they are on their own.
How about everyone take a deep breath and refocus on the core issues at hand. Dr Dave has acquired information that he felt should be shared with our community. He felt compelled to keep source confidential and therefore placed info on the rumors thread. Thanks for the info Dr Dave.
Here are the salient facts extracted from Dr. Daves comments:
Why should we try to confirm info and to whom might it be important?
Banshee commented that it was easy to make guess at the City in reference. Well, the only Southwest Mega-city I can think of is LA. Dr Dave also mentioned a 4 hour flight (roughly time for a non-stop Chicago to LA trip)
Making that assumption, we could begin to narrow prospects to list below (I may be missing some):
Los Angeles, CA
Orange, CA
San Diego, CA
I think BP is just going thru what many of us have gone thru. That it is real. He/she doesn’t want to believe it so he/she attacks. It’s a normal reaction.
And he/she is just one person. Imagine what is going to happen when the entire world realizes that it’s real and going to happen. That’s why we will never have any official word.
Dr. Dave -
Thanks for sharing your conversation. Everybody here would like to grab the top virologists, CDC folk, whomever, strap them to a chair and ask them what they think the liklihood of a pandemic is, how their institution is really preparing, and most definitely how they are preparing personally. With the help of an airline seatbelt, you’ve actually accomplished this task. The insights of this one man are just that - the insights of one man - but thank you for having and sharing the conversation with him that many of us would like to have had.
It would be great if everything we learn here could be corroborated and double-checked at the source, but that’s just not the reality of the nature of this beast. For individiual professionals, and for countries, H5N1 is full of ramifications that go far beyond the factually cut-and-dried. People, and nations, act accordingly. Even the news threads here are full of what most of us that post to them feel are mainly uncorroborated “rumors” because the information that reaches us is so spotty, unconfirmed (ever), and often so contradictory. We are all just doing as best we can, considering the situation. And one thing I have learned about H5N1 is that if we are going to be here examining it and discussing it, we are going to have to get comfortable with a very large degree of uncertainty. Beyond that, all we can do is evaluate our sources, our experience, and use our “critical thinking skills,” which I think are found here in great abundance.
Re what has gone on “discussing” Dr Dave’s posting:
I have no reason to doubt Dr Dave. He has credibility, posted in the “Rumors” thread what someone stated, and did not identify the person or institution by name.
If you attack the messenger rather than the message, perhaps the messenger will not post any further information. Perhaps others with significant first-hand info will not post. Who wants to be personally attacked, integrity questioned?
If you must attack, be careful to only attack the message and not the messenger.
How about Dallas/Ft.Worth?
It would be great if everything that the World Health Organization said could be corroborated and double checked at the source, but that’s just not the reality of the nature of this beast.(with my apologies to Pixie for plagerism).
I don’t have any problem with Dr. Dave’s info…compare that to the crap the WHO has fed us for the last two years.
Not only can they not back up one word they say with any evidence whatsoever…but worse, they don’t feel the need to and don’t believe they have to substantiate anything.
I have said before that behind closed doors, every expert in the world is having the same conversations and talking the same way we are…the more one knows may even make it more difficult…Dr. Dave probably heard some frustration being vented by someone who had had a bad day, week or month.
The evidence points in one direction…the news continues to be bad…and everyone knows it.
The deceptions and stretching of the truth is not coming from flu wikians or persons on planes but from the World Health Organization and sovereign regulators who have used WHO statements as an excuse for inaction for more than two years.
They have all their money riding on one horse in the race…that a pandemic is not going to happen…
…they have no plan if it happens…they know we are screwed.
Didn’t I read that we can go through that Adjustment Reaction over and over? Or at least bounce around? Or was that strictly for grief??
I had my brother tell me today I should focus on something less depressing. The fact is that avian flu is one of the more positive thoughts I have lately compared to other grief-driven stuff.
I don’t need or want Dilaudid (that stuff almost killed my 88 year old mother when they gave it to her in the ER for her broken hip — she was in what I’d call a coma for 3 days because of it!!). I’ve just been having some ‘low’ experiences and it’s dragged me down in the dumps. I come up fighting too, sometimes, wanting answers, other times I just sort of read and shrug and move on, especially from the stuff that’s over my head and that doesn’t take much! It’s hard sometimes to examine how you’re feeling in light of what you’re reading and find that you’re NOT crazy or irresponsible, but still feel sort of alone and certainly scared. Nice to be able to come here and be among friends who understand why it’s 2pm and I’m going to have Fritos for lunch.
You have not listed all the major medical center/universities in s. cal…I work at one.
Judging by how Dr Dave was treated I am begining to wonder if I would ever post info (that I was bound to keep confidential but wanted to give a heads up on) here.
Tom DVM- I have much respect for your knowledge and opinions as I am sure most of the regular posters and lurkers who have read your many contributions.
I fear you are correct, I pray that you are wrong, I wish there were more positive posts, I hope we all survive, and I know I will have a bleak weekend.
another anon for theis post, at 15:22 -
Exactly!
Green Mom – at 08:58
Green Mom, You’ve hit the nail on the head. Anyone who has watched someone die a protracted death from respiratory failure would understand this. I had a sibling die this way. I won’t bore you with the details, but after a protracted illness and nearly six-week homecare stint culminating in a 72-hour hospital vigil with only one family member absent, once that family member arrived and had a chance to say goodbye, a nurse came into the room, gave my brother a dose of morphine, and he died quietly. Can’t prove it, but my mother is convinced that the nurse gave him a lethal dose to end his and our suffering. And it wouldn’t surprise me a bit. You could literally hear him struggling to breath at the opposite end of the corridor, and, to this day, when I hear the final burble, spurts, and sputters of a coffee maker brewing, it calls to mind what my brother’s breathing sounded like in those final hours and days. Horrible.
another anon for this post, at 15:22 -
Exactly! I have the same worries/considerations re posting info from a source.
Already, after only 2 days, this thread is too long. Oremus opened New Rumors IX to continue the conversation, so I’m closing this one.
Dr. Dave’s post is copied to the new thread.
JV and Anon:
This isn’t the first time this has happened. Ask JV and Major Dad, now we can add Dr. Dave. There are extreme personalities here who forget this is the rumors thread and not the news thread. Don’t forget hoarding is a recogmnized mental disorder. Now watch me get flamed cause I triggered someones secret worry.
“Virologists spend all of their time thinking about viruses” -good point, Tom DVM !
Edna Mode and others - I wonder if some of the people’s reactions to pandemic as a possibility/probability/ how much they prep/how bugged they are about getting the community clued in and prepping, (or not) has to do with life/loss experiences?
People who have never been sick/injured in bed a day in their life sometimes don’t understand they’ve probably just been lucky, not that they are thinking/doing something “right”; that they can keep from getting laid up, so, others should be able to as well. They may also think they never have to plan for “what if they needed help?”, because they can’t imagine the future won’t really be just like their past has been?
People who have never sat a deathbed or had end-of-life experiences or been confronted with their own mortality may not be able to think about some of this stuff. (Stuff that makes you shake when you talk about it, for instance.) Easier for them to believe the reassuring headlines, or say, well, maybe this won’t even happen, so, I won’t plan for it.
Maybe some who have had to deal with bad consequences are more likely to believe disasters can happen, or, more motivated to be proactive and try to mitigate any risk with high impact?
I gave some info to a parent today and they looked very concerned -until “a light came on” and they said- Oh; “bird flu?” Well, I work at a hospital, and they’ve told us they’re planning for this stuff! (Hope that wasn’t the end of concern; why do people trust memos from the boss about pandemic, when they wouldn’t about blizzards or floods? -they’d at least check the weather themselves. They know the boss isn’t going to help them at home if there’s a blizzard or flood… People just have been kept so “un-panicked” that they have no idea the duration and likely impact of what the politicians and officials are so studiously not talking about.