Continued from here
Bronco Bill — What??? The Martians have landed in New Jersey? There was NOTHING in the NY Times about that.
What’s your source?
(And more importantly, did they bring preps?)
Flimsy rumours…
Saw my [someone] this weekend. Was not able to speak about BF, but seeded info, will let it stew, and try and work on the subject in a week or so. As far as [someone] is concerned, “nobody speaks about it, therefore [personal pronoun] is not going to put [personal pronoun] reputation at risk by asking questions”. We’re talking very hight level here. Sigh.
Asked my other [someone] to ask [personal pronoun] colleagues to make local inquiries in wet markets/populous streets in Thailand. Waiting for their return to Europe.
Asked one of my informed colleague if there was any more background medical noise in his circles - but this colleague has retreated in a shell and won’t speak anymore than what is on Google search. This colleague is intensifying his prepping - large preps - well water and independent main heating.
Chatted with another very informed colleague this am. I am informed that many of my other colleagues are now asking awkward questions to this particular professional unit. There is a battle going on in my workplace about what should be done/said. The broken link in this chain, the decider, will need to be convinced of the real threat of BF, this will be hard to do. My colleague is not in a position to make decisions even though pushing this link really hard. The concern about BF in my little world started three years ago, but some of the TPTB are in total denial. Measure are being thought of for the protection of all of our colleagues, but at the moment these remain at the state of discussions. My colleague has undertaken confidential and international contacts at the highest medical levels in Europe. My colleague is very respected in such circles. In this region of the world, it appears also that professional knowledge in making mass vaccination has been lost in the last 30–40 years. Something is being done about this through personal channels.
My feeling is that we are starting to see the building of informal alliances, underground ones, using friends and friends of friends nets/contacts, which are seeking to promote prepping at all levels. People composing such networks may initially be non-deciders, but each one of them has family/friends here and there, up and down the social picture. Hopefully, this will be productive - the sooner the better.
We both agreed about threat assessment - when not if. We both agreed on the necessity for extensive preps, about infrastructure collapse, about life/business broken continuity… etc. just as on this site, according to our most pessimistic views. We also agreed that as long as the helm is empty across the road, nothing will happen in the way of declaring phase 4. We agreed further that even after the helm is filled, it will take weeks before the new captain can acquaint him/her self with the complexities of the situation. We also agreed that the economic implications of declaring phase 4 are frightening TPTB.
I also learned that unnamed people made threats of hellish retribution to others in my place of work, if themselves or families had happened to become contaminated three years ago during the last epidemic scare. It may well be that such behavious forced our PTB to take some preventative measure. Perhaps if those who behaved that way were to reiterate these nasty warnings, it might make things move faster. It is terrible to have to think this way. At the very least, I have no doubt that when TSHTF these threats may not only be words, but deeds.
My colleague mentions that BF is not the only scary illness, but also Chik and TB. My colleague holds no illusion, the caring professions will be the first dead - my colleauge is scared for [personal pronoun] life, nevertheless prepared to own up to duty. If TSHTF = 3 days for the whole planet. Thanks to people such as this person, some planning is moving ahead at the level of professional friendly groupings, but it’s not enough. As I do not belong to the same hierarchical structure, I have agreed to fill holes in areas where my colleague has tied hands. We will talk again about such practical steps.
I have had no return, yet, of other sources previously mentioned. This part looks like it might take time.
My PPF is on the one hand high - 7 - because of what I have heard in the last few days, on the other hand, hearing that such a colleague is taking active steps risking unemployment makes me want to lower my PPF a little.
I apologize for being so cryptic and using badly constructed sentences, but I am trying to protect myself and my sources. I cannot identify the jobs of these people nor their gender, neither their relationship to me. I am also wary of people searching the Google cache, hence some of roundabout way of writing this post.
If some of you readers of FW do identify me or those people mentioned, please understand my concern and do not shoot me down. Give me a ring and help me instead.
Circumstances have made it otherwise difficult for me to report much, in addition to which my home computer has lately been temperamental and I am posting this from work to be sure you do get it. I have been unable to have an uninterrupted flux of FW threads, the beast crashing often. I had been unwell too, but that is better now. I also have much work and a number of pressing issues to solve. Also, one reason I have been less seen here is that I need time to sort out in my head the best way for me to act, because once I have done so there is no going back, it’ll follow me the rest of my career/life. I am not a political or strategic person, so putting together all the bits in my head is difficult. And I am not prepared to risk the downfall of my job and that of those people who trust me.
This of course is the rumours thread. Yet, I would like my post to be a message of hope too. More and more people are asking questions and taking actions, though sometimes small, they will make a difference.
A.D.O.M. Thank you for your comments and honesty.
When you get a computer that works…all of us would appreciate you discussing things at greater depth.
You don’t need to worry about confidences…many who have to maintain them have been posting here for some time without any problem.
We wouldn’t allow any harm to come to you. /:0)
TomDVM- you were the first one that came to mind. Actually, I’d like tp propose everyone one you from fluwiki. Heck, we couldn’t do any worse!
ADuckOrangeMercurey - Thanks so much for your efforts and posting here. It is greatly appreciated:)
Seems like there has been a LOT of negative news about the future of the U.S. and world economies lately. My service provider start page has had several news items on how bad things are, the newsservices and financial sites I check in on regularly have become very negative, the radio station I listen to also had projections of a very bad future (excessive borrowing and debt by states and individuals, mortgage foreclosures, housing bubble bursting, more job losses, future constrictions of goods and services — even that we might have a 1930′s style depression and melt down. Even the GAO senior accountant is having a campaign and traveling tour about how bad our financial futures are.
I am really wondering just what the score is. Is this driven by the current political campaigns? Are people waking up? Is the main stream media finally waking up, or just trying to make us anxious? Maybe are they trying to prepare us for what can come about with pandemics and general collapse, a la Jericho?
Stilll more impetus to store away things for some kind of disaster ---
ADOM:
I understand, but please elaborate on the epidemic potential three years ago that didn’t break out. What last epidemic scare?
just saw (10–30) on a respectable blog, that v.p. cheney is insisting on purell usage before ,during,and after all handshaking events.people in line are squirted before contact. read into it as you will.
Heddie, Wait until November 8th, and you will will all of a sudden read how much better things are for our country. The electin will be over, and hopefully we can get back to some semblance of truthful media coverage. On both sides.
Military rumors: Some activity at the local ANG base: heavy transport planes going over (not many), the jets are up again (but not in a big way) and there’s almost a continuous thrum of aircraft of some sort — helicopters, etc.
Humming but not buzzing at this point.
message understood. Glad I checked rumors before leaving. My P factor has gone up one notch to 1.5..Thank you for posting.ADOM…
Leo7 – at 14:43 — ADOM: I understand, but please elaborate on the epidemic potential three years ago that didn’t break out. What last epidemic scare?
SARS
I passed by WHO on my way home, 8.30 pm., but no lights other than usual, cleaning ladies and probably the occasional staff who stays in to surf on the Internet rather than doing it at home, or sharpening pencils for the next day :-) The extra parking lot is empty. Saw a car with WHO registered plates on the road, obviously having left the office late, probably for those reasons above :-D
FrenchieGirl:
Thanks—how could I forget? My mind was on influenza reading ADOM. I’m straight now.
The old “pizza census” may apply to WHO if it gets bad.
Definitely something to watch. Catering and parking lots.
Although I don’t think it will be pizza in Switzerland. LOL
“I passed by WHO on my way home, 8.30 pm., but no lights other than usual…”
Frenchie Girl Have you ever been around when the World Health Organization parking lot was full and the building lights on late into the night?
Hi Tom,
Yes. Previous to my present job, though admittedly some years ago, I worked exactly across the road on the 9th floor with a plunging view of the building, and it was a habit of some of us to stay late in the evening.
I have also lately gone home on that route more frequently. Part of the front car park is shielded from the main road, but the other car park, which is empty, lies along that road and is reserved for WHO staff.
As regards working late when circumstances demand it, there is no staff union to forbid it. Such organizations are plutocratic, and you are at the disposal of your boss the DG, through your own hierarchy. If work demands, you cancel everything and you stay till told to go home or sleep on the floor in the office. Period. So if all hell is breaking loose, the lights will be ablaze and the outside reserved car park will be full. It usually is the case during the regular World Health Assembly.
Also, though I don’t know this for a fact, the WHO is now fairly cramped for the number of staff, and any big meetings will be held within the United Nations, just down the road. If TSHTF, the UN building will be ablaze too and its car parks full or almost.
In close proximity, there are also:
The World Council of Churches
The International Labour Office (my old 9th floor)
The International Committee of the Red Cross
The World Intellectual Property Organization
The European Broadcasting Union
The Russian Federation Mission
The American Mission
Not far:
The United Nations High Commission for the Refugees
The International Meteorological Organization
The World Trade Organization
And others, missions, embassies, smaller intergovernmental organizations, international hotels, etc. and I probably forget a few.
Frenchie Girl. Thanks. I guess my question was not if the lights were on during political meetings such as the World Health Assembly Meetings…but whether the lights were on and for how long during the SARS outbreak of 2003.
Honest, Tom, I didn’t pay attention at the time. I was much into gathering info on SARS which I’d seen coming a bit earlier than others thanks to Promed - I’d found Promed searching for info for my 2nd husband’s health, and trying to get our PTB to act on SARS - which did happen, though too late really. We dodged the bullet with SARS, I don’t think we will with BF.
Frenchie Girl. Thanks.
‘’‘FrenchieGirl – at 16:32 wrote:
“ We dodged the bullet with SARS, I don’t think we will with BF.” ‘’‘
The gun may still be loaded - don’t put away your running shoes.
LONDON, Aug. 17, 2006 (UPI)
“Zhong and Zeng said that SARS is currently under control in China but has not been eradicated. They suggested that all medical professionals should collaborate closely in the future to contain emergent infections, public officials should work closely with these professionals to create useful public policy on infectious disease, and an international monitoring system should be set up for early alerts.” - excerpt
Both physicians work at the Guanzhou Institute of Respiratory Diseases in Guangzhao, China.”
http://www.upi.com/HealthBusiness/view.php?StoryID=20060817-042411-2622r
Klatu – at 16:45 - that was my last check of the thread before going to bed with a large glass of BB RWFW or whatever it is that Bronco Bill brews. You really want to give me nightmares, don’t you? Ohhh sssshhhugar. Today was a real heavy day. Having looked into the eyes of someboday scared for her life with BF… knowing she’d die giving others a chance to live, and now seeing Yi, Peiris and Webster on the news thread admitting to a new Fujian strain, and you give me that on SARS now? Urgh. Too much for my frailed nerves. Good night y’all.
Great to see you back FrenchieGirl. We missed you and hope you are totally on the mend. And don’t drag down your current health with worry. What will be, will be.
For lack of a better thread to post this on, I chose this one. I went to my second home tonight, my local library, and guess what my friend had waiting on me? Flu- The story of the great influenza of 1918 and the search for the virus that caused it.-author Gina Kolata I am really excited to finally read something about this, and asked my friend to see if they could find any more books on this, especailly for New York state. I want to read how this state handled it and what the people went through. I want to relay what I read to you good people, and start a thread for this. Is this something you will be interested in? Saw a picture of a young Jeffery Taubenberger in the book. Let me know what you think.
cottontop
I definitely think it is a good idea. The more information the better really. Sometimes one isolated piece of information can be mined from these histories that might become very significant later.
Frenchie Girl. Based on Medical Maven’s comments, I must have missed the fact that you haven’t been feeling well. I hope you are feeling better. Take care of yourself.
TomDVM- I ask the question because of time restraints on myself, and there is already so much to read, I’m wondering if we need one more. I do think it is revelant to this virus, and to our prepardness, and more to be learned on how people dealt with this, perhaps on a daily basis, and cities as well. There is a picture of baseball players on the field wearing masks! Who would have thought? Another picture shows an influenza ward with sheets hung between the beds in an attempt to contaian the virus. A man is turned away by a trolley conducter because he is not wearing a mask, in another picture. I think it’ll be interesting. Hope ya’ll do too.
ADuckOrangeMercurey – at 14:04
Thanks for your post. It confirms my own private conclusions based on read the tea leaves.
Here is my interpretation, FWIW.
The Chinese government does not want phase 4 declared until the pandemic has started. The reason is that this will trigger travel restrictions to affected areas which would obviously include mainland China. This would decimate their economy. It would also have ripple effects on other economies, most notably the US. What would the value of factory be in country with a big biohazard mark on it be? What would happen to the value of the companies that depend on cheap labor in China?
China has controlled the message coming out the WHO via it’s control of Margaret Chan, the panflu czar. The untimely death of the former Director-General now allows for the installation of Margaret Chan as DG - the only person who can declare phase 4. I’m sure China, and perhaps other countries as well, have made it clear that they do not want phase 4 declared until there is a new DG - a convenient pause. Once installed as DG, Margaret Chan will make the usual polite noises about preparedness, but if anything thinks she will apply pressure on China, the source of newly evolving strains of H5N1, to be transparent, well, I’ve got some extra special bottled water from Harbin to sell you.
The American CDC is has very close ties to the WHO. For whatever reason, they have agreed to de-emphasize the threat of a pandemic as much as possible. They have deliberately sought to undermine preparedness in US states by claiming that .25% CFR is the worst case scenario. Further, Nancy Cox, et al., published a study that had been done years ago showing that old strains of H5N1 did not form highly infectious viruses when artificially re-assorted with H3N2. The publication of this negative, and largely meaningless, data seems calculated to provide an excuse to de-emphasize preparedness despite the fact that newer strains of H5N1 were not studied and the fact that the 1918 strain, which H5N1 most closely resembles, did not evolve by reassortment but rather by direct adaptation to humans, which H5N1 shows every sign of doing.
The net effect of WHO and CDC propaganda has been to confuse public health officials and slow down preparedness. I don’t think everyone at the WHO or CDC has bought into this. Middle level scientists may realize that something is rotten, but they feel there is little they can do. They are also probably being kept in the dark regarding some of the data. Countries and US states that rely on the WHO and CDC for information are completely unprepared for a severe pandemic. However, there is another source of information. The US deparment of Homeland Security and some people in Secretary Leavitt’s group are much more concerned about the possibility of a severe pandemic. Their message is much more serious and focused than that coming from the CDC and WHO. States that listen to them have mounted very serious preps.
I also agree that there is bottom-up effort on the part of a number of scientists to alert the world. They are meeting considerable resistance from the WHO and CDC in getting their message out. Some of them are so frightened now that they are prepared to risk their careers to warn the world. We need to support them whenever possible.
So if Chan wins ,that means stage 4 is purposely being held BACK,as far as i’m concerned and my prepping will reflect that.Chinese flu from now on.
treyfish – at 21:09
Yep.
H5N1 has always been Chinese flu. The fact that you have had any hesitation to call it that demonstates how effective Margaret Chan and China’s other agents have been at obscuring this obvious truth.
Well you know ,we can’t play games with it anymore.I think i will refer to it as Chinese flu from now on.I like birds.They don’t deserve the bad rap and Chinese flu sounds more ominous.More one that people will pay attention too.”Who” named it bird flu anyway?Should i have to guess?Yes ,i’ve found most diseases are prone to come from China,but to have them help it along with dangerous and inefficient vaccines makes the name more fitting to me.How could it be called anything different?If the media called it “Chinese flu” officially,i’m sure the reaction would be quite alarming.Sounds dangerous NOW,does’nt it?
Can I get a small order of spare ribs with my Chinese flu?
Fuji Flu.
I like it.
Rolls off the tongue.
fujiflu.com
it’s even available….
Chinfluenza
China Chan Pan Flu
Pan Fried Flu
I also favored “Hu Flu”, in an honor of the President of China, the one person most responsible for allowing the use of bad vaccines and covering up the consequences.
Hu Flu? Who knew!
China Flu
Thanks, ADOM, for the information. We appreciate it so very much. We have got to stay focused on this prepping business.
Monotreme, you have convinced me about Margaret Chan. If she is from the Chinese mainland instead of Hong Kong, she still has close family in China. I would think that would effect her thinking, too. Well, her election is not a sure thing yet. Let’s hope the people that will decide on the new DG realize the implications of their decision. Thanks, for the analysis.
WHO flu
bgw in MT, Do you truly put any hope in people doing the right thing? I don’t. The pieces are all falling into place for a collapse of unprecedented size and scope.
bgw in MT – at 22:52
Actually she is from Hong Kong, but was widely criticised during the SARs debacle for giving in to Mainland Chinese pressure and not warning people in time.
But she is definitely China’s Candidate for the WHO DG. For example, see this:
A “little bird” is wispering in my ear: Given the number of candidates for DG of WHO, is it possible that there will need to be a run off if not one candidate gets a majority? Call it a woman’s intuition, but I have an uneasy feeling that the election will not be settled on the first ballot. I thought I saw a series of dates for the election — like Nov 5, 6, 7th. If that is true than might there be balloting until one candidate emerges triumphant, such as what happens when the Pope is elected?
who votes for the DG?
More on China’s support for Margaret Chan:
Margaret Chan more confident on running for Director-General of WHO
Chan said she felt actually a bit nervous on knowing she was backed by the central government as the candidate for the position of WHO Director-General. However, the central government’s full support and close coordination from the government of HKSAR has heightened her confidence.
Chan stressed twice that she will do her utmost to live up to everyone’s expectations.
Check out the second picture. Although a picture tells a thousand words, here’s a few more:
Chinese Vice Premier Wu Yi ® shakes hands with Margaret Chan, Assistant Director-General for Communicable Diseases of the World Health Organization (WHO), during their meeting in Beidaihe, a summer seaside resort in north China’s Hebei
“China is willing to make a bigger contribution to world health development and recommends you run for the position of WHO Director-General as China’s candidate”, Wu told Chan, stressing that China considers Chan’s leadership skills, sense of responsibility, professional background and devotion to health issues give her the right profile for the post.
Anyone think DG Chan will ask Chinese Vice Premier Wu Yi any aukward questions about H5N1 sequences, bad vaccines or suspicious outbreaks?
DennisC – at 23:16
From 6 - 8 November, the Executive Board will meet in Geneva to decide on a short-list of candidates, interview them, and then vote to propose a candidate to the World Health Assembly. In a special session on 9 November, the Assembly will consider the Board’s nomination and appoint a Director-General.
From:
WHO Director-General: proposals
Here are the Executive Board Members
More info:
World Health Organization Director-General selection: frequently asked questions
When discipline begins to break down on the “good ship” WHO you have to suspect that the report on the China flu today is just the tip of the iceberg.
What other shoes are there to drop? Or will they just let the facts on the ground speak for themselves as they materialize?
Medical Maven. Someday, you are going to have to explain how you came to write this good. /:0)
As far as the Director General of “the “good ship” WHO goes…
…money talks…Margaret Chan will be the next director and I don’t expect any of us to have future employment opportunities there…
…how long is her term of office anyway?
Flu Goo Gai Pan demic
I came to the same conclusion about declaration of phase 4 some weeks ago and was roundly criticised by suggesting the unthinkable - that there are serious political and economic forces at work both internationally and nationally that need to be understood.
At an international level, I have a sense that if China has a bad pandemic, then they want the rest of the world to share it to avoid altering the balance of power in the world, or to perhaps tilt it to Chinas advantage.
My belief is that in a pandemic you are pitting two opposing societies against each other to some extent. There is China, which still has a large peasantry, still a relatively unspecialised economy, and relatively few highly sophisticated cities with good medical services.
America and Europe on the other hand, have almost zero self sufficient “peasants”, a highly specialised economy and sophisticated cities and medical services.
The real issue is resiliance. Which countries are going to rebound fastest after a pandemic with the minimum of economic damage?
In a low CFR (1918) Pandemic, I would say the West could rebound faster provided we have done our preps and put in place sophisticated and transparent pandemic plans.
However in a “civilisation buster” 50% CFR pandemic, our highly specialised infrastructure and economy is not going to take the strain, hence talk of a return to a 1900′s economy as a good outcome. We would receive proportionately much more economic damage then China, which has a less sophisticated infrastructure and a much higher proportion of self reliant peasant population. China can afford to lose all the population of its cities, we can’t.
Sorry for being a cynical pessimist, but these are the calculations that will be being done in Washington, Peking and elsewhere.
I do not expect China, or a Chinese WHO DG, to bolt the stable door until long after the horse has bolted for the reasons stated above.
As for domestic pandemic responses, I fear that politics is going to play a part in who gets what resources, end of story.
P.S. The major supermarket chain here has just woken up to panflu - today I just noticed that all their cashiers are now wearing gloves.
Walrus, for some time I have thought that those were the very calculations that China has been making.
And in their mind they are making a good bet, strategically-speaking, never mind the possible billions dead.
Walrus,
You credit political leaders in all countries will a) paying attention to H5N1 when they are clearly not, and b) have such a high degree of understanding of H5N1 as to do these calculations.
I’m afraid the truth is probably a lot more mundane, that we are where we are because not enough people are paying attention, and also because even if they do, there isn’t much that human beings can do about it.
You’re not the cynical pessimist, I am. You still believe political leaders have enough of a clue to think they ought to be doing something. I believe the whole thing is on autopilot.
Medical Maven – Walrus
you may want to look at McKibbin’s report:
it only goes to a fatality rate of 2.3% but it predicts the US and EU will do better than China.
anon_22 – at 00:37
conspiracies are rare, incompedence is common
DennisC- I totally agree about the conspiracy….(that kind of rhymes if you say it out loud.)
I think we should call it China Flu- After all, Spain took the rap for the 1918 flu-and it didn’t start anywhere near there!
I recall the reply given by a history professor years ago to a question about conspiracy theories.”Never assume malice when stupidity is a sufficent explanation.”
WHO/Hu/Chinese PandemicFlu
I’ve been living like we’re at phase 4 since last Nov. A WHO declaration shouldn’t be what fluwiki folk consider a fact on the ground, for reasons people have been making so eloquently. (Remember Dr.Nabarro said, somewhere; phases 4>5>6 could happen very quickly.)
I want Monotreme to write the history up so survivors know and try not to repeat our history….just about a book’s worth of Monotreme “interpretations” already.
Have told people who think it’s only for birds (and, for people who somehow aren’t like themselves??), the past rumors out of China translated it as “the birds-and-beasts flu” long time ago. They haven’t been shown the lists of mammals, some that usually can’t get influenza have been infected and died.
No current official should be calling it “bird flu”; just say H5N1, as the public needs to learn about H5N1.
Human Pandemic Influenza Year also might be the extra step some of the public didn’t see the memo on, what with all the “3 days to 2 weeks of food”- even our cemetery workers sort of thought the “6–8 week wave through a community” they’d been told about (where they’d have 6 months worth of people to bury) was about the extent of the problem. (They also hadn’t seemed to take it as any likelier than terrorism.)
at 14:04 (thank you, good health, and Good Luck!) The broken link in this chain, the decider
“They’re everywhere! They’re everywhere! They’re everywhere!”
Monotreme – at 20:38 “The net effect of WHO and CDC propaganda has been to confuse public health officials and slow down preparedness. I don’t think everyone at the WHO or CDC has bought into this. Middle level scientists may realize that something is rotten, but they feel there is little they can do. They are also probably being kept in the dark regarding some of the data. Countries and US states that rely on the WHO and CDC for information are completely unprepared for a severe pandemic. However, there is another source of information. The US deparment of Homeland Security and some people in Secretary Leavitt’s group are much more concerned about the possibility of a severe pandemic. Their message is much more serious and focused than that coming from the CDC and WHO. States that listen to them have mounted very serious preps.”
I chatted briefly yesterday with a physcian I had not met before about the possibility of pandemic influenza. She has been very busy setting up a new practice, and is not up to date on the subject. She is, however, open to learning about it and she mentioned she that she would visit the CDC website to learn more.
At that point, I mumbled something about the CDC not being exactly the place one would want to go for current and accurate information (to which I swear she raised an eyebrow), and suggested she visit DHS, the pandemic gov. flu site, Fluwikie, to get additional infomation.
It felt rediculous to tell a physcian, who normally counts on the CDC for accurate information, to look elsewhere. Sitting there, I think I probably faded off a bit as my mind was then hijacked into again considering the total inconsistency and dichotomy of opinion and the lack of clear direction on this subject even from our own government and I thought:
“This is sheer insanity…”
Unknown disease claims 36 lives in Banke
Thirty-six people have died due to an unknown disease that has spread in four village development committees of mid western Banke district in the last two weeks.
The number of patients who are suffering from the disease has risen to 500. The toll has risen to 23 in Phattehpur VDC, 10 in Gangapur VDC, two in Narainapur and one in Chauferi village.
According to newspaper reports, most of those dead are children and the aged. Over 36 people are in a critical condition.
According to locals, viral fever, body ache, shivering and sudden unconsciousness are some of the symptoms of the “mysterious ailment”.
The locals said, almost every household in these villages has at least one member suffering from the mysterious disease.
Head of the epidemic control programme in the District Public Health Office (DPHO) Banke, Ram Bahadur Chand, confirmed that 36 people have died due to the epidemic in the last one week across the Rapti.
Even though the DPHO dispatched a team, blood tests could not be done due to the absence of electricity, as a result, the disease could not be identified. Blood samples have been taken from some people and medicines given to them, The Himalayan Times Daily quoted assistant health worker Narayan Sharma as saying.
Locals have accused the government of being indifferent to their plight. nepalnews.com pb Oct 31 06
The previous post is courtesy of Sand on PFP.
Pixie – at 08:38
“It felt rediculous to tell a physcian, who normally counts on the CDC for accurate information, to look elsewhere. Sitting there, I think I probably faded off a bit as my mind was then hijacked into again considering the total inconsistency and dichotomy of opinion and the lack of clear direction on this subject even from our own government and I thought:
“This is sheer insanity…” “
Very well said!!
You are right on the mark here…this is exactly the same feeling I had when discussing with my GP last Friday. It was the first time I broached the subject with him and while I felt somewhat awkward, I believe the Doc was feeling awkward as well. He was aware of the pandemic influenza and knew the CDC reccos but also mentioned that his guard unit was engaging in prep activity. I think it was more of the preparing to prepare level but there was a hint of internal struggle coming from the Doc. I think he is living the dicotomy of the CDC vs DHS.
Et al-Regarding China in the “flu-soup”
EVEN in the midst of incompetence there can be A DAWNING of possibilities.
(The Chinese are very, very intelligent, and they have millions to burn. And their cohort of engineers, scientists,etc. is very deep and wide).
The West is demographically challenged, and its ranks of pragmatic professionals is much thinner.
Green Mom – at 01:26 “should call it China Flu- After all, Spain took the rap for the 1918 flu-and it didn’t start anywhere near there! “
both started in “China”. One of the first reports of the H1N1- Spanish flu- was in 1917 in Tibet (according to The Lancet - the British medical journal, July 14, 1917 edition). People keep saying the Ft Dix but there are 1917 medical journal reports and there where even a few Asian medical conferences in 1917 about it.
This flu (H5N1)seems to have originated in Qinghai Lake (bird island) which is in Tibet. If China wants to claim Tibet then let them get the flu named after them.
see also: “Influenza was epidemic in various parts of Europe throughout 1918, and undoubtedly the earlier outbreaks were carried over from 1917. The files of The Lancet indicate that a more or less widespread …
An epidemic of purulent bronchitis was reported from a British Army base in northern France in January, 1917, whilst an epidemic of influenza was in progress. This outbreak began in December, 1916. Later, in the spring of 1917, similar cases of purulent bronchitis were treated at Aldershot, England. These cases are noteworthy because they seem to have been similar in all respects to the fatal types of influenzal pneumonia so commonly seen in all parts of the world during the autumn of 1918. The epidemic referred to was reported by Hammond, Rolland, and Shore in The Lancet, July 14, 1917. They remark that although the earlier cases were admitted during December, 1916, it was not until the end of the following January, when exceptional cold prevailed, that the disease assume edepidemic proportions. ..”
…Abrahams, Hallows, Eyre, and French in The Lancet, September 8, 1917 reported their observations of scores of similar cases in the Aldershot command. ..
From Annual Report of the Secretary of the Navy, 1919 — Miscellaneous Reports. http://tinyurl.com/yx2454
I know that a lot of people like to look at Berry’s book and say it started at Ft Dix, but I prefer to look at the historical records and the medical reports published before 1918.
The point is the China flu is an OK term to me.
Here is an article that might interest (or scare) some of you. 9 repeatedly talks about Bird Flu and TB combining.
Bird flu, influenza and 1918: The case for mutant Avian tuberculosis Lawrence Broxmeyer, MD Summary: Influenza is Italian for ‘‘influence’’, Latin: influentia. It used to be thought that the disease was caused bya bad influence from the heavens. Influenza was called a virus long, long before it was proven to be one. In 2005, an article in the New England Journal of Medicine estimated that a recurrence of the 1918 influenza epidemic could kill between 180 million and 360 million people worldwide.
A large part of the current bird-flu hysteria is fostered by a distrust among the lay and scientific community regarding the actual state of our knowledge regarding the bird flu or H5N1 and the killer ‘‘Influenza’’ Pandemic of 1918 that it is compared to. And this distrust is not completely unfounded. Traditionally, ‘‘flu’’ does not kill. Experts, including Peter Palese of the Mount School of Medicine in Manhattan, remind us that even in 1992, millions in China already had antibodies to H5N1, meaning that they had contracted it and that their immune system had little trouble fending it off. Dr. Andrew Noymer and Michel Garenne, UC Berkely demographers, reported in 2000 convincing statistics showing that undetected tuberculosis may have been the real killer in the 1918 flu epidemic. Aware of recent attempts to isolate the ‘‘Influenza virus’’ on human cadavers and their specimens, Noymer and Garenne summed that: ‘‘Frustratingly, these findings have not answered the question why the 1918 virus was so virulent, nor do they offer an explanation for the unusual age profile of deaths’’. Bird flu would certainly be diagnosed in the hospital today as Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS). Roger and others favor suspecting tuberculosis in all cases of acute respiratory failure of unknown origin.
By 1918, it could be said, in so far as tuberculosis was concerned, that the world was a supersaturated sponge ready to ignite and that among its most vulnerable parts was the very Midwest where the 1918 unknown pandemic began. It is theorized that the lethal pig epidemic that began in Kansas just prior to the first human outbreaks was a disease of avian and human tuberculosis genetically combined through mycobacteriophage interchange, with the pig, susceptible to both, as its involuntary living culture medium. What are the implications of mistaking a virus such as Influenza A for what mycobacterial disease is actually causing? They would be disastrous, with useless treatment and preventative stockpiles. The obvious need for further investigation is presently imminent and pressing.
Bluebonnet- “influenza” is an italian word that, one hypothesis has it, was coined by the disease’s Italian victims in the middle of the eighteenth century. Influenza di freddo, means “influence of the cold.”“- Gina Kolato
A good read. I’m interested in this TB as well, and am keeping an eye on it, as well as newcastles disease. One never knows.
The TB connection makes no sense. TB is a bacillius, a huge hulking creature compared with a virus. It’s easy to stain, easy to see in a microscope. Does it make any sense that all the people searching so desperately for the cause of the pandemic could have possibly missed TB? Unbelievable. The two diseases are as different as pears and tuna fish. Big words don’t cover up a shaky story. Ther’s no question that TB and influenza co-existed. But a undetected cross? What about the sequence database? Where is the evidence, other than this guy saying so? And this guy doens’t know the difference between a theory and a hypothesis, either.
anonymous – at 11:47
I’ll admit I have a bias against the information from an individual’s web site that starts with “Lawrence Broxmeyer MD is already heralded as today’s single most brilliant and innovative medical investigator by colleagues in the United States and abroad…”
I find far more revealing information about Lawrence Broxmeyer, MD HERE. But, then, maybe it is not the same Lawrence Broxmeyer, MD…
What ? Did I miss this?
“in 1992, millions in China already had antibodies to H5N1, meaning that they had contracted it and that their immune system had little trouble fending it off.”
Weird.
cactus – at 12:59 What ? Did I miss this?
No, the study that claimed that did not acutally go out and analyze blood samples. It was a survey to ask if, in the past year, you had had a bad case of flu. Totally worthless. There is no such study as he claims.
The swans are still feet up. The power grid and the Internet is still on line. “There’s still time, Brother.”
However, in homage to H.G. and Orson Well on the anniversary of the infamous radio broadcast; “No one would have believed in the first years of the 21st Century that human affairs were being watched … Few citizens even considered that we were being studied as a man might study the organisms that swirl and multiply in a drop of water.”
Interesting that over 100 years ago the power of a virus was thought the ultimate weapon to save mankind, and now we are fearful in it’s presence.
TRay75 – at 13:36 The swans are still feet up.
The ones at which I am looking are still feet down / heads up.
Dennis in Colorado – at 13:56 - Darned dyslexic monitor interpretation. It’s been a long month.
You’re correct, it should have been “The swans are still heads up, feet down. etc “ .
Now, to loose the rest of my mind, it’s time to take my 2 kids trick-or-treating until sunset. And they will be probably called my grand kids by at least 2 or 3 complete strangers, but what else is new?
But point being, we’re all still here speculating and waiting and prepping, and the monsters are still only in the movies for a few more days at least.
I’m trying to re-frame my thoughts into a positive, no matter how bad things seem. One of the first rules for survival.
Pixie – at 08:38
It felt rediculous to tell a physcian, who normally counts on the CDC for accurate information, to look elsewhere. Sitting there, I think I probably faded off a bit as my mind was then hijacked into again considering the total inconsistency and dichotomy of opinion and the lack of clear direction on this subject even from our own government and I thought:
“This is sheer insanity…”
You’re not the only one who realizes that the CDC recommendations are insane. Minnesota, which has an excellent pandemic flu plan, also realizes that listening to the CDC is dangerous to their citizens health.
Check this out:
Pandemic vaccine rationing proposal favors the young
In a worst-case influenza pandemic, without enough vaccine for everyone, who should stand closer to the front of the line: a 25-year-old water utility worker or a healthy 75-year-old?
[snip]
The vaccine allocation recommendations released last week by the Minnesota Center for Health Care Ethics (MCHCE) look much different from the ones proposed by the federal government. The vaccine rationing recommendation in federal pandemic plan is aimed at saving the most lives, and might favor the healthy 75-year-old over the 25-year-old utility worker.
The Minnesota group’s approach is designed to prevent not only deaths due to influenza, but also deaths related to public infrastructure breakdowns. It is weighted toward those whose immune systems are more likely to respond strongly to a pandemic flu vaccine. As such, it would put the 25-year-old utility worker ahead of the 75-year-old.
[snip]
The group said the deadly infrastructure collapse that occurred during the Hurricane Katrina disaster influenced them to seek ways to mitigate other effects of the pandemic, not just the flu deaths. “Seeking only to vaccinate those at high risk of influenza-related mortality leaves them and every other Minnesotan unprotected from death due to breakdowns in basic healthcare, public health, and public safety infrastructures,” the report says.
The report emphasizes that approaches to vaccine allocation differ because of different assumptions about pandemic severity. The federal recommendation is based on a moderate pandemic, while the Minnesota group’s plan is based on a severe pandemic, like that of 1918–19, along with an inadequate supply of vaccine.
This is the difference between States that have a chance of survival and those that are doomed. If your state follows CDC guidelines, your odds of surviving a severe pandemic are much lower than if you live in a state that disregards the CDC guidelines and has intelligent public health officials, like Minnesota.
This is more of a prophecy than a rumor.
Maybe a rumor, maybe not the right place but here it goes. Oh boy, should I? (clears throat) I just noticed that the news thread got WAY off news somewhere and became, yet again, a ‘pick on how Niman looks at BF’ thing. I don’t want to get into a right/wrong thing there although I do have my own opinions on how he is treated here. One of the news posters mentioned that he was banned. Scaredy cat said: Too bad Niman canft defend himself here against anon_22Œs attempts to discredit him. Is that true? Rumor? I thought that he had just decided to avoid this place after the last dust up.
On the fence and leaning,
The moderators permanently banned Niman a few months ago.
wow. I knew he got banned the week, didn’t know it went further than that. I am sure there are still some strong feelings pro and con.
Well, Ive missed that. I don’t want to stir anything up, but why was he banned?
It is my understanding that he was not banned, but was suspended for a week. He has posted a few times since then.
I agree with bgw - I think that was just a one week suspension - however - I dont blame him for not posting here - he was VERY rudely treated!! He has a theory - who knows if right or wrong - but we bill ourselves as welcoming all theories - so why beat him up when he posts. Not fair in my opinion! Who are we to judge him and why should he have to prove anything to us??!! I think his absence is a great loss to the wiki!
Initially Niman was suspended for two weeks. A few weeks later the mods permanently banned him without a clear warning. i think it was on an Israel thread. Not sure though.
Anon_22 basically engineered his suspension, both actively and by failing to rein in other harassers. She constantly harps on her version of what is science and what isn’t, although she isn’t a scientist herself. The current groupthink on this board is that understanding the data and the science are not necessary, anyway; all we need is to have scouts watching for smoke on the horizon. As a result, there isn’t much discussion of the science anymore. The curious thing is that the failure of the CDC to release sequences or to publish would appear to be consistent with Anon_22′s strange idea of how science operates.
Niman was a maverick and he slavishly stayed on his pet topic. He didn’t veer off on other topics, when asked, he came straight back to his theory. The people who are complaining about his absence, all of you are thoughtful and share info on a variety of topics, as does Anon 22. But Niman doesn’t. Sometimes he hit highs that were patronizing and even snobbish when he was answering some questions. He had a way of sparking up things, but I don’t miss him and I’m sorry the rest of you do. If Niman missed corresponding why hasn’t he opened his own blog on his established web site? My opinion is MD’s, PhD’s and scientists wouldn’t go to his blog and he knows it. Niman had no patience for answering the same questions over and over as new people came on board. He just ignored them. Anon 22 answers.
Anon 22 has begun some of the most interesting threads here as has Monotreme. Anon 22 is a medical doctor, and the peer group she’s interacting with and bringing information to us from like JKT, would not grant such interviews to anyone not an MD or on a similiar level. She shares what she learns, she doesn’t stand on soap boxes, she’s not trying to make a buck, and she does give fluwicki national access and recognition. Otherwise fluwicki might get dismissed as y2k leftovers. I’m not cheerleading, but I would really miss her if she took a vacation from here.
I actually do need a vacation…. :-)
cactus – at 12:59
What ? Did I miss this?
“in 1992, millions in China already had antibodies to H5N1, meaning that they had contracted it and that their immune system had little trouble fending it off.”
No, you didn’t miss it. It didn’t happen.
On the subject of ‘Chinese flu’, I don’t believe it is helpful to start using ethnic labels for a possible pandemic which, whatever you think, is a 99.9% naturally-occurring event, which will kill millions and millions.
For those who don’t know, I’m ethnic Chinese. But I would feel the same if you start using ‘Algerian flu’ or ‘Timbuktu flu’.
Come a pandemic, there will be enough destruction without adding blame, which will not backfire on whoever you believe was negligent right now, but on the totally innocent person of a particular ethnic origin going about their own lives, who will have exactly the same chance of having someone dear dying from the virus as the rest of us.
cottontop – at 19:13
Gina Kolata’s book is good. Even better than John Barry IMO, but shhhh.. don’t tell.
:-)
anon_22- have you read it?
yes, of course. I wouldn’t comment if I hadn’t.
geeze I thought about that after I posted. Too early for me and not enough coffe!
I’ve read some so far, and it realy is disturbing. If this goes pandemic, and is worse, from what I read and hear, we really are screwed!
anon @5:36- thanks for pointing out “Chinese flu” as ethnic labeling. In reading the thread, I’d felt a bit uncomfortable about it didn’t have the guts to say anything seeing I don’t post that often. You are right.
I think in using the name Chinese flu, people might feel some relish because of what we have learned here about the behavior of the Chinese govenment etc around this pandemic. Secrecy, inneffective vaccinations possibly making worse problems etc. I did initially before I felt the above.
I pictured you as a blond! ;) maybe you still are… just kidding.
I love it when I screw up people’s images of me. Still remember the first time that Monotreme realized I was not a guy, and that was after months of writing to each other.
LOL
Actually, I have blonde days…..
Perhaps we should revisit the original reason for renameing this thing and come up with something non-ethnic.People hear “bird”and think that it either doesn`t affect people or that you would only be able to catch it from birds.They hear “flu” and associate it with ordinary flu.
The best phrase IMO is still pandemic influenza or influenza pandemic.
annon_22- @ 06:17 I’m having one of those this morning! You sound full of energy, and ready to go. What’s your secret?
ottontop – at 06:32
annon_22- @ 06:17 I’m having one of those this morning! You sound full of energy, and ready to go. What’s your secret?
Jetlag?
When I talk to my friends etc about prepping, I always say “influnza pandemic, flu pandemic, or pandemic flu”. Often I use the word “potential” or “upcoming” before the word pandemic. I guess I don’t use “avian” or “bird flu” especially because people get confused, as we all know, between what is happening in birds vs the ptential pandemic, which theoretically might not be via H5n1. I figure that there is so much misinformation in the MSM, I don’t need to add to the confusion for my friends. I suppose the term we choose to use hear is good practice for how we talk about it everywhere.
I remembered when I figured out you were a woman, anon_22. There was a whole thread where someone refered to you as “he” and then another wrote a comment with She in capitals.
Thanks so much for all you have been doing here on fluwikie and in the world.
I figured out annon_22 was a woman right off when I first started posting. Has too much attitude to be a man! (I mean that in a good way annon_22.)
When people say it’s just BIRD FLU remind them that the A in Influenza A means it was derived from a virus that infected birds. ( A is for Avian.)
I should like to respond to Anon_22 and others on the subject of “ethnic labelling” since I also proposed on another thread recently the names of “Fujian Plague” or “China Plague”, and some other such like names on another thread some months ago.
Certainly, when you say “ethnic labelling” in this way, that’s exactly how it sounds, and I am sorry if I offended any here. However, my (and others) proposals were not to connote some pejorative way of designating people originating from a particular region. It was simply (1) to distinguish, geographically, where it seems to us and most scientists, that this particular BF comes from; (2) to assign an illness name that would import the dramatic lethality the bird flu carries with it and which the word “plague” conveys better than the word “flu”.
I should also be reminded that we have had many bad ethnic flus, Spanish flu, which did not originate in Spain; Hong Kong flu, Russian flu, Asian flu, etc.
And, finally, I would note too, that the media at some point will pick a horrific name for this illness, when the media realizes exactly what is facing the world and that “bird flu” is a woefully inadequate name for an illness that kills in days with acute respiratory syndrome, secondary bacterial pneumonias, and from what I understand, some diarrheic and hemorragic features. Also, the media will realize that the words “avian influenza” is (a) long and difficult to write, (b) pertains to birds, © conveys the idea of mild illness. “Bird flu” conveys (b) and © above, but it’s easier to read and write, hence why I think at this moment it is more searched on Google than the other. As for the names “influenza pandemic, flu pandemic, or pandemic flu”, they all carry with them the difficulties highlighted in (a), (b) and ©, in addition to which most people with even some good education just cannot quite fathom what is a pandemic.
I’m open to better ideas than mine; we’ve had such discussions about a new name for this illness some months ago. None that we chose then ever stuck in the press. Now why should we want a “dire” name for it? So that people start being aware and prep accordingly. Also, because if we are the first to find a likely name, at least conveying the lethality of the illness, which would not be a reminder of the Black Plague, and which ideally would be easily translatable in other languages, we’d establish it and it would be less likely it would be displaced by some even worse sensational name concocted by the press.
I shall post this reply on the other thread where I had originally propoesd to compete with another for a BF name, but leave it to others if they should wish to debate further and open a new thread.
Back to rumors, this is actually not a rumor, but I have no documentation. Last night while watching TV, I saw a commercial for GSK. I heard it right before I fell asleep, so I guess it could have been a dream, lol. They were talking about avian flu, or whatever you guys want to call it today. Anyway, it discussed it a little bit and how they were working hard on a vaccine. Anyone else see it?? It was on about11:00–11:30PM.
I like pan-flu.
FrenchieGirl – at 07:16
I should also be reminded that we have had many bad ethnic flus, Spanish flu, which did not originate in Spain; Hong Kong flu, Russian flu, Asian flu, etc.
First, none of these were ethnic in a sense that it arose because of these people, but it just happened to be wherever it was thought to have started. But uninformed members of the public won’t be able to tell the difference.
Second, just cos something was done before does not make it right or useful or appropriate. It wasn’t that long ago when African Americans had to sit at the back of the bus. Societies evolve, for the better, I hope.
Third, when people are dying, none of these arguments will be remembered. Just the name, and the excuse to vent their grief and anger on someone.
Finally, science has also moved on and we no longer use place of origin as name for disease.
Avoiding unintended consequences is part of pandemic mitigation.
anon_22 – at 07:29 - I humbly bow to your arguments. Pray the media do not make the name worse than my (others’) suggestions.
Peace, and let’s return to rumours now
jplanner – at 06:06 I pictured you as a blond! ;) anon_22 – at 06:13 I love it when I screw up people’s images of me. Still remember the first time that Monotreme realized I was not a guy, and that was after months of writing to each other.
Well, I thought I’d go on a hunt & figure out who anan_22 is, after being directed to the profile section so I pulled up the National Academies & tried to hunt down a speaker whom I thought might be seen here that we would address as Dr. if we were in their presence and I got nowhere. Now I should go back and hunt up a Ms. Dr. with blonde hair who’s had some remote connection with China!!! Boy what a lead!! :-) I’m on a roll…..maybe by the end of the year I’ll have this case solved!
Yes, I know I could email her and ask her name, and I probably will eventually, meantime it adds to the alure of the elite poster to speculate and I’m learning a lot of other people’s names who have been seriously researching this illness for years — a big ‘thank you’ to you all, whereever you are, whoever you are!
Rose
Anon_22 thank you for all the work you do. I really respect what you have to say.
Rose,
Here’s the National Academies link. Actually, thanks for asking, I didn’t know they had already put up the presentations!
And to clarify this issue of ‘remote connection with China’, I’m originally from Hong Kong. In fact, I still have a home there and am there right now. Technically, since 1997, Hong Kong is a ‘Special Administrative Region’ (SAR) of China, but is run under a different political model of limited democracy, high accountability, low corruption, and open capitalist society.
(BTW the similarity in name to SARS was one major cause of political paralysis when SARS was unfolding, but that’s a different story.)
However, having grown up in a British system, and having family all over the world (all continents except Africa), I don’t particularly think my ethnic origin has any major influence on my thinking. But the multi-cultural side definitely does, and I tend to act as devil’s advocate whenever issues come up. I find myself spending just as much time explaining Americans to Chinese or British people as the Brits to Americans or Chinese to Americans, or any other permutations. <g>
FrenchieGirl,
Thanks, and peace to you too. :-)
anon_22, point taken. I usually, when talking to people, say H5N1 pandemic or pandemic influenza (or, maybe that rumors out of China quite a while ago translated as the “birds-and-beasts flu”) (or “like Spanish flu but worse”), though the feeling of wanting the Chinese officials (or the WHO and their still-Nov 2005 phase alert?) who cover things up held accountable is still there…
or I say the public’s “bird flu” will be like Spanish flu but worse, not that Chinese rumors translate as that Still on first cup of coffee and not much sleep. oops
SAR:(BTW the similarity in name to SARS was one major cause of political paralysis when SARS was unfolding, but that’s a different story.)
wow! my “something new” I learned for the day and I haven’t even had my caffeine yet! thanks, anon 22…
annon_22-
This is totaly off topic, but I was wondering if you have ever visited Angkor Wat?
Regarding a better name for Bird Flu/Pan Flu/ Pandemic Influenza: I don’t think we can beat Steven King’s short, catchy “Superflu.” But I don’t think it’ll get that handle until it starts killing people in the streets.
Currently I still use “bird flu” when talking to people about it. It’s almost cute; I use a lot of humor when broaching such a serious subject, a la Jon Stewart. That’s the approach most effective for me.
My two cents this am-I was thinking about “China Flu” in terms of Point of Origin not realizing that scientists don’t do that any more-shows you what I know. I really enjoyed the word play-I was especially fond of Oremus’s “flu Goo Gai Pan-demic-which I thought was clever and will make me laugh now whenever I go to a Chinese Buffet. I didn’t pick up any racial overtones here, but I can see where it would quickly lead to that-I’m afraid our Society has not quite evolved that far. So we should probably ditch the Point Of Origin angle- unless we want to call it P.o.O. Flu.
However, I also agree with Frenchie Girl in that it would be good to come up with a name before the Media comes up with a worse one. And her points 1,2,and 3 are very good. Someone suggested simply H5N1 flu-its easy to write but a little tricky to say quick-we want those short sound bites!!!!!
“The black death” is great-you got the darkness, the horror, the death, says it all. Unfortuantly, its allready taken. I myself love “The Great Mortaility” but it implies something that has happened, its really too long, and once again, taken.
We need something short, non-ethnic, non-species,Something to distingish this flu from seasonal”ordinary” flu, something to convey this is a different mutating flu that we havn’t dealt with before….Mutant Flu? X-flu?
How about “New Flu”…..
“Killer Flu”
That is what sets it apart from “Flu”
Can anyone think of a word that implies deadly or breathlessness or some other horrible but real aspect of the disease?
The word virus istead of “flu”
“China Virus” Word that means turn blue virus or can’t breathe virus.
Well, since this is a rumors thread, it would be quite hard to go off-topic :-)
The SARS story went like this. When the disease was breaking out in Hong Kong hospitals, there was pressure on the government to, among other things, make the disease legally notifiable. This is usually done to facilitate disease tracking, but the promptness of notification is a bit of a moot point in this instance IMO at a time when the cause of the disease was unknown and no confirmatory tests were available. In any case, there was agreement with hospital doctors and the general medical community to notify when in doubt.
Anyway, it was one of the things that Margaret Chan, as head of the public health services, was supposed to do. She was later reprimanded for the 10 day delay in making the disease notifiable.
The following excerpt from the report gives the timing of events.
Select Committee considers that Dr CHAN should be held responsible for not seeing the need to amend the law on or immediately after 15 March 2003, Dr YEOH, being the policy secretary responsible for health matters and the immediate supervisor of Dr CHAN, should also be held responsible.
What was happening on the political side was this. The government (the politicians, not the civil service) was increasingly unpopular and was perceived as incompetent, the economy was bad, and there was great need to boost the image of both the government and of Hong Kong, officially known as HKSAR, China. Imagine the consternation when the WHO decided to name the disease SARS!! There was an immediate flurry of activities to try to influence (aka change) that decision.
Now, you cannot legally make a disease notifiable until the disease has a name and a definition. While efforts to change the name was going on, and then, after that failed, efforts to try to come up with an alternative name locally, SRS instead of SARS, and to get everyone to agree, got hectic, messy, and, to a spectator, slightly comical. The last email on this SRS/SARS discussion was dated 27th March 2003.
All of this came out in the official enquiries. If you follow the link and look at the detailed documentation, should tell you a lot about the opennness of governance in Hong Kong.
cottontop – at 08:19
This is totaly off topic, but I was wondering if you have ever visited Angkor Wat?
No, would love to. Why?
Sorry, important correction to my 08:46 post
promptness of notification should read promptness of official notification
I would love too as well. I’ve been a student of ancient history/archaeology for 15 years. I dearly want to visit the places I’ve studied about. I was just curious if you’ve been.
VARDS= Viral Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome
VARDS Epidemic has a nice ring
VARDS Plague has more sex appeal.
Trying to come up with VADER as in Darth, but haven’t had enough coffee yet.
For me it will always be “The Hot High Breathless Birds & Beasts Flu.”
Prep manic- “China Virus” Word that means turn blue virus or can’t breathe virus.
How about “blue Flu”
Ok I’m hung up on this rhyming flu thing. Its a dreary day out-but HEY! Ive got the day off ( as much as a Mom ever gets the day off….) so I’m gonna make some more coffee and curl up with a dictionary/thesauraus, see if I can figure something out…..
annon 22. Thanks for the explanation.
Dr. Cheng has chosen to be a public figure and therefore, like all politicians, has a history (public health is in large part politics).
History is open to continual re-interpretation. She may have been treated fairly by history or not, it is not for us to decide…but now she will in a few weeks, thanks to China’s money and influence, be starting her tenure as Director General of the World Health Organization. She will be on top of the ‘mole hill’.
She can dispel history by acting in the best interest of those who pay her wages…which is us!!…or she can be a lap-dog of China (who has the money and the influence).
She should well know that she has summited the mountain at what will be an apex of history and regulatory medical science. She is going to be the center of attention as she is the pivotal figure in all that we discuss.
This time there will be no gray areas at the end of the day.
Fuijian Flu
Tom, you mean Dr Chan. Asian last names can be challenging I know, but those two names are as different as Smith and Ford. :-)
oops!!
Also, my post was intended to satisfy the curiosity of those like crfullmoon who didn’t know about SARS and HKSAR, not to go into the WHO debate. Let’s save that for its own thread, so those who want to debate that will have that info. Thanks!
anon_22:
That was a most interesting story on the history of the SARS episode. I had not heard a few of those things before. Very interesting insights into Chan.
TomDVM:
If Chan is appointed, we will see pan-flu “managed” with the Chinese stle of management right up until it’s obvious that no one anywhere can “manage” it for a second more.
As bad as the managing part of that is, what’s worse is that once the virus does its thing and becomes unstopable, the “management” plan has no follow-up plan. That’s the problem with command-style beaurocracies. They can work ok, or at least look like they’re working ok, as long as the chinks in the management plan don’t get too big. When they do, the entire load of fish blows apart and there is absolutely never any “plan B.”
stay on topic folks
Sorry - I didn’t see anon_22′s request to move WHO debate over to a WHO thread.
But, at this point, Chan’s potential appointment being nearly certain is a rumor, and a pretty major and important one.
anon_22 – at 08:01
Well, when I go on these ‘hunts’ I have the grandest time! I spent time reading your presentation and others as well, even found your picture on the Who’s Who page on another site! Isn’t the wiki amazing that people with your credentials are here with the average Jane like me and we both keep it going….it just never ceases to amaze me. I’ll bet your email inbox looks a lot different than mine does too! :-) I don’t have family in other countries either — I’ll be that’s fun in a lot of ways — I rely on my ‘foreign family’ here and other places on the net to keep me connected.
Thanks for the link….I’d gotten distracted in my search and hadn’t gotten back to it so now I’m feeling like I acomplished something already this AM — now it’s off to can lima beans, northern beans, and chicken breasts, and dehydrate broccoli & hamburger.
Green Mom – at 09:17 You poor little thing….you’ve had several really grey days lately, messy weather! It was raining here when you mentioned bad weather the other day, but the sun’s back out now thank goodness. I tend to react more to falling dying leaves and rainy days more than I’d like to acknowledge.
Thanks for the recap on SARS — helpful to me too. I learn so much here — NOW I’m off!
Any good rumors today?
I think the pandemic flu, when it comes, will attain many different regional names. Like the 1918 “Spanish Flu” was also more casually known as “The Grip” in much of America. I’m sure it had other catchy local names as well. I’m sure more interesting nicknames will accompany this flu as well. It may be come to be known as something much different as it evolves… maybe like “Miss Piggy’s Revenge” that becomes “MPR”, or something showing that children are more affected but not wanting to scare them so much in speaking in reference to the illness like saying “NapTime”.
I would prefer a more obvious name that could go down with the ages to describe this disease and all future pandemics that identifies the type of disease as well as the time period… The PanFlu of 200?, the PanTB of 200?, the PanEbola of ?
-not very sparkly, but gets the point across.
Anonymous posted yesterday at 11:47
TB is a bacillius, a huge hulking creature compared with a virus. It’s easy to stain, easy to see in a microscope. Does it make any sense that all the people searching so desperately for the cause of the pandemic could have possibly missed TB?…Ther’s no question that TB and influenza co-existed. But a undetected cross?
While IMHO I also doubt if there was an actual cross between the TB and influenza, additional info on TB offers food for thought. Broxmeyer’s paper on his theory cites some historical references on what’s called the “TB virus”. This prompted me to check a modern reference, Lida Mattman’s amazing text titled “Cell Wall Deficient Forms, Stealth Pathogens” (3rd ed. publ. by CRC Press, 2001). There is an entire chapter devoted to “Mycobacterium tuberculosis and the Atypicals”. Here are a few quotes that may help us understand that these bacteria often undergo radical structure changes, one of the most common consisting of loss of the relatively stiff cell wall structure, loss of which does not kill it. These changes in bacteria have been documented through the past century by hundreds of studies, and are yet commonly ignored by modern medicine. Here is more…I will leave out the technical stuff about staining, media differences, etc.
P. 189. “It is apparent that in any tissue the tubercle bacillus grows minimally as an acid-fast rod, the predominant growth consists of pleomorphic structures…Voluminous literature substantiates that mycobacteria grow more rapidly and with the least fastidiousness as pleomorphic forms, unrecognizable as mycobacteria. Csillag concluded that mycobacteria are typically biphasic, resembling true fungi…Xalabarder noted that classical mycobacterial filaments could abandon binary fission and simultaneously divide into 10 to 15 bacilli or develop a variety of older forms…remarkable syncytial growth…sprouting granules…long branching filaments grew from the granules…”
P. 190. “Mycobacterial species differ in their degree of acid-fastness in growth stages. Their acid-fastness and morphology also varies with the culture medium.”
P. 191. “In mycobacterioses the wall deficient variant can usually be seen in 48-h blood cultures…The pleomorphic acid-fast microcolonies develop in any standard blood culture medium…Blood is an excellent source of the organism since approximately half the patients with active disease produce no sputum…The blood usually yields a positive culture whether the infection is in lung, meninges, or other organ…the blood continues to carry the organisms during 3 to 5 days after initiation of specific therapy.”
P. 193–4. “Sometimes it appears that CWD [cell wall deficient] stages, per se, produce tuberculosis….Stable CWD forms were found in all lesions, including those in the brain. It was noted that filterable units of the organism could easily penetrate the blood-brain barrier…One study had disclosed that tuberculosis patients who discharge L-forms of the pathogen are especially contagious, that their contacts should be warned, and their health monitored.”
[A note here, that the term “virus” was historically sometimes applied to very tiny pathogens that travelled through special filters thought to hold back the larger bacterial sizes of pathogens].
P. 194. “The filtrable form of M. tuberculosis, one of the stages of cell wall deficiency, has been demonstrated in almost every type of secretion and exudate. Thus, this “ultravirus”, has been found in pleural fluid, in ascitic fluid, in spinal fluid in meningitis, in the peripheral blood of women during menstruation, in urine, and in mothers’ milk” [refs not included]…This virus stage of the tubercle bacillus was recovered from the blood of individuals suffering from cutaneous tuberculosis and from their dermal lesions…Residual infection after treatment is an important problem…The variants retained the original pathogenicity of the bacilli and could also cause non-specific inflammation…Staining and growing the CWD stages of mycobacteria can remain a simple method for diagnosis and confirmation. In addition, the quantity of microbial substance to analyze by molecular methods can be rapidly increased in the CWD stage vs. the bacillary.”
Page 197. “Many agents such as lysozyme, macrophages and bacteriophage, known to produce CWD stages in bacteria naturally occur in the vertebrate body. Correspondingly, it is interesting that tuberculous lungs contain elevated levels of lysozyme.”
Brief comments
The statements that CWD forms of TB are found in the blood (and other body fluids) raises serious questions about other methods of transmission, including mosquitoes. Hopefully the public health sector will become more aware.
Other pleomorphic bacteria covered in this text include salmonella, shigella, pseudomonas,borrelia, treponema, listeria, staph, strep, Haemophilus influenzae, fungi, and others. Clinical and laboratory considerations are included. One interesting chapter includes information about induction of CWD forms by antibiotics and organic compounds. There are entire chapters devoted to “Filterable Forms” and to “Phage” (a type of virus). The text is very heavily referenced.
(Pixie, “the entire load of fish blows apart “ -like the time someplace thought the best way to dsipose of a dead whale was dynamite?)
beehiver, “The statements that CWD forms of TB are found in the blood “ somehow makes me want to go give everyone in New England a TB test…
beehiver – at 11:20 Thank you for that, it is very enlightening and, frankly, a little frightening in its implications.
disgruntled - I know you often lurk and seldom post. Peace to you and thanks. :)
Regarding the name for the disease, I have one, but it may be a little too long to easily roll off the tongue. How about:
amalgomated H5N1-XDRTB-HIV-ebola-dengue-chikungunya-mystery disease
Hello Nawty!
I still like : the WHO flu.
and of course WHO means Where, How many, Oh no.
Scientists test BB RWFK on mice.
Red wine molecule helps mice live longer
It was only a matter of time.
Oremus!! Thanks for my first laugh of the day!! Cheers
Found this on another thread by Reader, Will Americans Really Stay Home? What do you all think? It’s conspiracy all right but not entirely unbelievable…
I have a friend who is into conspiracy theory. No, he doesn’t believe them but he loves to read them. I asked him to come up with a conspiracy theory about the pandemic (he says there are several already) but part of our conversation was that I asked him if we will be able to stay home when it starts. He said no, but not for the reasons here. First off, he said the government will never admit that the CFR is greater than 1 to 2%. Any attempt by any person or media to say otherwise will be dealt with by severe means and then suppressed. They will lead you to believe that masks and gloves will protect you, that only dirty habits will kill you (especially fat bodies, smoking and drugs), and they will remind you over and over that we have Tamiflu and vaccines coming to protect you. Therefore, they will advocate normalacy for all - school, banks, work, etc. We will have our pandemic and be perfectly okay at the same time. He said the government will bank on the first wave to be mild, but no matter how bad it is, the number of dead will be minimized - if you are in a town with 3000 dead, they will report 30, maybe 300 to the rest of the nation. If you cry foul, you will be labeled a heretic (as will the Flu Wiki). Anyway, this is how the conspiracy starts and he combines several other theories for the rest of the story.
On the fence—
I hope the government here in the states doesn’t actually have the manpower and foresight to necessary to implement such a plan. We have an (nominally at least)independent media in this country. And, remember that the people charged with enforcing any such standards of information control will be subject to the same CAR and CFR as the rest of us. I just don’t think you could get the number of people to “play ball” that you would need to pull this off.
I’m not saying TPTB won’t constantly repeat the story that everything is fine, everything is under control, because they will. But I don’t believe such nonsense will have much traction with the newspaper editors and HAM radio operators and legions of independent media folks in this country.
My view—the story will come out, despite TPTB’s best efforts to the contrary. The only question is how many people will die believing TPTB’s lies before the truth steamrolls them with the weight of bodies?
Look for the internet to have mysterious ‘outages’.
On the fence and leaning – at 17:34, Unfortunately, all those bodies piling up and the increasing “missing” - the postman, your neighbor, your kid’s classmate, the majority of the HCWs in your city - might tip us off that something is happening? Nothing like a good conspiracy though… :)
This theory is not as whacked out as it might seems-a huge reason Berry’s book chilled me so very much was the suppression of flu news during the 1918 pandemic-then it was for morale reasons during the war. There are many scary parallels between that time and this one. And newspaper editors are not so independant as we might hope-many newspapers are part of a conglomerate. Having said that, I do think it would be tremndously difficult if not impossible to keep this story under wraps. I just don’t think the current PTB have what they need in place-too many of their “balls in the air” are tumbling down.
Heres a thought for the states-if many incumbants lose thier seats in next weeks election, who knows what might come out into the open? On the other hand, if there is a massive shake-up there may be too much confusion to get ducks in a row before flu season.
I still think incompetence trumps conspiracy….but I allways like to hear a good conspiracy theory! :-)
Treasure Island Gal at 11:16:
Regarding a “catchy name” for the flu, how about “Captain Tripps”? ;)
(For those that don’t understand the reference, that’s the “catchy name” for the bug in Stephen King’s “the Stand.”
I’m a fan of just “H5N1” because it won’t be confused with regular influenza. “Killer Flu” is good but could become a joke if a year or more go by without big problems.
During Katrina I remember that the TV media pulled no punches in reporting the horrors. I remember one particular reporter from one of the cable news networks cussed the lack of government response online…I have never seen a reporter so angry and vocal about it. And, he wasn’t the only one. I remember many people who had been critical and suspicious of the MSM finally gained a measure of respect for them. I think if the SHTF there will be reporters with integrity who will buck the system to actually report the news. Call me crazy…
Nova, I hope you aren’t talking about Geraldo and his reports from New Orleans. My uncle lives in New Orleans and the stories about Geraldo setting up shots and making people do things for the camera to sensationalize it is old news in the Big Easy.
No government will be able to hide the dead and keep JIT supply chains going. We already know that and that’s why this is a prepping site which also distils news.
I’d guess that Nova is referring to Shephard Smith from Fox News? He was really angry during a couple of his newscasts.
YES! It was Shephard Smith. Thanks for giving credit where credit was definitely due. I remember being impressed, especially since Fox’s apparent policy is to rarely criticize the present government administration. I thought it took a lot of courage.
And, no, it was definitely NOT good old Geraldo. Nothing he has ever done has ever impressed me…
the problem I had with “Shep” in NO was that at one time he and the camera crew were standing on a by pass saying the people came up out of the water and didn’t know which way to go (left or right). The news crew knew but made no effort to tell them to go “right”. It would have been so easy to tell them or to mark a simple sign - but no they were more interested in the story than in helping. I had really liked “Shep” up till then.
DennisC: never saw that clip. Oh, well, guess that just proves no one is perfect. We all just have our moments.
NOVA: OK, the media may not normally pull punches but in the end, the government can and will be able to control the air waves. I don’t usually dip into the conspiracy barrel but I have read enough on here about executive orders in the past few weeks to make me wonder if the TPTB are ‘prepping’ in ways we haven’t or don’t want to consider. thus endeth the sermon
OTF&L: Possibility is that, as a result of Katrina, the government learned hard lessons about allowing the press too much freedom. You very well may be right.
But, as an aside, and just because I got so so so so sick of watching ALL the news stations today (and at the risk of getting the mods mad at me) in the end, in the good old USA, the Dems are going to blame the Republicans, and the Republicans are going to blame the Democrats, and no one is going to get around to assigning the responsibility where it truly belongs.
Hey, a blacked out Ford Sedan keeps driving by my house all of a sudden. ;-)
Remember in all this if the TSHTF as we think, the news teams will be hit as well. Many will be “locked out” of towns due to quarentine. The communication lines may be “thin” at best. My guess is, like now, most of the news feeds and pictures will come from LA, NY,DC and a few from Atlanta and Chicago with very little from the “heartland”. The news rooms will have the same 40% absenteeism as everyone else. Towns may not be able to hide the stacks of bodies but there may not be anyone to film it.
On the fence and leaning – at 23:01 -blacked out Ford Sedan
Be sure to put on your tin foil hat so they cannot beam you. :)
I would like to renew previous requests of several posters to ask those folks who are near Bush’s Texas ranch and other strategic government locations to keep us updated on unusual activity. It’s always about what they do and not what they say that really counts.
I will never forget that movie, Deep Impact, where the blond reporter (you know the one: the worst actress of the century) discovered the government guy resigning his job and taking off with his family with a heck of a lot of Ensure to sustain them. It’s always about what they do…
Walrus – at 00:01
At an international level, I have a sense that if China has a bad pandemic, then they want the rest of the world to share it to avoid altering the balance of power in the world, or to perhaps tilt it to Chinas advantage.
Not only yes, but HELL yes.
Why do you think China has been witholding sequences all this time ?
China wants the advantage and will not hesitate to try and get it, even if it puts the rest of the world at risk.
And I should add this is not ethnic labeling, but the result of doing business in China, and knowing the chinese mindset for dozens of years.
With what is going on in China now, this limrick is getting closer and closer. There was an old man with a beard Who said, “It is just as I feared: The owls and the wren, The larks and the hen Caught bird flu. They’ve all disappeared.” Apologies to Edward Lear (and absit omen).
Got an e-mail from a relative who is stationed in the middle east and this comment kinda surprised me:
“I’ve been stabbed three times. Yup, the smallpox immunization are here! I wonder if all the hype is true. I wonder how long it will take to hit. I wonder.”
I know this is not AI related, but thought it appropriate for the rumor thread and other situations we should be prepping for.
Anderson Cooper was also famously righteously angry. I read his book recently. He said a lot of locals were doing their best under horrible conditions with no outside help. When the outsiders finally came, they wanted to run everything and the locals resented the hell out of it.
Cooper was very angry about the dead bodies left uncollected for so long - kept comparing it to things he’d seen in third-world countries. Couldn’t believe it happened in the U.S., since it was such a serious health hazard, and a horrible trauma for locals to see. Cooper really took it personally because his late father grew up there, and he had gone on trips there with him as a child. If you saw his show at the time, as the days went by he really seemed to suffer some post traumatic stress disorder.
I believe Shephard Smith is also originally from Louisiana, but don’t know what part. He was probably especially angry because he may still have relatives there.
If you look at the Katrina/Fema first response as a future model, it scares you, because there was no prioritizing done for the sake of public health - no priority to giving first evacuations or food/generators to hospitals or nursing homes, no quick body disposal, no ambulances to the Superdome to take the sickest away, or doctors/Red Cross with insulin and formula, etc. The excuse for not going to the Superdome was, “It’s too dangerous,” i.e., they’re poor, minority, and from a bad neighborhood, and we’re afraid of them, so they’re the last group we’re going to help.
What if medical and other aid workers decide during an PanFlu epidemic, “It’s too scary to help people in the bad neighborhoods, so don’t go there?” You’ll have riots and looting as poor people without food/meds/organization fend for themselves. People aren’t just going to lie there and die because the civilians that run charities, utilities and public services are afraid to go to the bad part of town, and there’s no effective security in place.
La Escapee The excuse for not going to the Superdome was, “It’s too dangerous,” i.e., they’re poor, minority, and from a bad neighborhood, and we’re afraid of them, so they’re the last group we’re going to help.
I have friends who were at ground zero.
It WAS too dangerous.
It had nothing to do with race or socioeconomic status.
FEMA had a DMAT team there a day after the hurricane. They had to enter the superdome with an armed guard with a machine gun from Federal Protective Agency to do any patient contact.
They quickly ran out of meds and supplies, and didn’t get resupplied.
There was nightly gunfire inside the Superdome from the gang bangers. One of the national guard guys was injured by a gang banger w/ a weapon. The FPS “tagged” the DMAT people so they knew who not to shoot if push came to shove inside, in the dark.
I’m not condoning the overall response at all, but it did become too dangerous for a medical team to be onsite, so they pulled them out and fell back to the airport where there was a HUGE medical operation. (4 DMAT teams)
The problem was in the evacuation logistics through the flood, and not enough food/water/meds to keep people going until evac.
That part was botched until the military finally got there from Baton Rouge.
Day late and a dollar short.
Homesteader – at 09:10
Trying to come up with VADER as in Darth, but haven’t had enough coffee yet.
—
Viral Avian Disease Ends Respiration
Bird Guano: Having grown up in Los Angeles, I can tell you that N.O. isn’t the only place with gang bangers with no sense of appropriate timing. I think these disasters just rip the cover off of a lot of problems that were there all along.
There are no disasters that happen in a vaccum.
I’d be really interested in your take on why the supplies ran out so quickly, and no re-supply. Bad distribution, or physical obstacles to re-supply?
tjclaw1 – at 23:57 - “I’ve been stabbed three times. Yup, the smallpox immunization are here! I wonder if all the hype is true. I wonder how long it will take to hit. I wonder.”
I don’t know what the present hype is, but I just hope for your friend that what I saw on TV a few years ago was well taken care of. The French national TV showed a more or less completely destructed and pillaged Iraq lab that was doing small pox studies and reporting many vials containing the virus had been stolen…
tjclaw1 – at 23:57 Got an e-mail from a relative who is stationed in the middle east and this comment kinda surprised me:
“I’ve been stabbed three times. Yup, the smallpox immunization are here! I wonder if all the hype is true. I wonder how long it will take to hit. I wonder.”
27 October 2006
Dr Dave – at 07:04
…He did offer, however, that there was a second virus out there that worries him just as much as H5N1…..
Smallpox is what I was thinking when Dr. Dave mentioned a second virus. The Soviets made TONS of weaponized smallpox stocks. It was reportedly so nasty (99% CFR) and horrible it was called ‘Blackpox’. Your skin would turn black and fall off. I remember reading news and rumors of lots of it missing. Also the Iraqi Republican Guard was vaccinated for it prior to the Iraq war.
In 2000 Congress did a study called “Dark Winter”. It was an exercise of a terrorist attack on three American cities using smallpox. Very chilling. Just google ‘Dark Winter’ and .gov .
Here is the Dark Winter exercise. Since I can’t tinyurl here at work I’ll break apart the web address. Just get rid of the spaces:
http :/ /www .homelandsecurity. org/ darkwinter /docs /DARK_WINTER .pdf
Hope that works.
Warning. There are graphic pictures of real smallpox victims.
This scenario could be a H5N1 scenario. Congress had many hearings on this and came up with new laws to be used as a result.
jwb, that’s a very interesting read
JWB at 7:31 Dark_Winter
Wow that’s a very sobering read. I wonder if the smallpox vac I got when I was a kid will still keep me from dying that way. I had to skim thru some of the exersize because the words were making me sick to my stomach. Thanks for that iluminating and cheerfull read this morning JWB. I think I am going to go check on my lockdown supplies now.
Dark Winter - said hospitals couldn’t handle a 10% surge in patient demand over a sustained period.
Didn’t do much about that that past several years since, eh?
ChuckE – at 08:40
I believe that people that were vaccinated have about a 10% chance of immunity. This was a best guess. I can’t remember where I read that, its been a few years. I have no doubt that smallpox has fallen into the wrong hands. The Feds have been stockpiling vaccine for it frantically for the last 5 years. Just google it. They wouldn’t be doing it if they didn’t think it was possible.
Now if it is Blackpox, its a different story. A vaccination might not work. Black Pox replicates within the body extremely fast and can over run the immune system. Again, its been years since I studied it and I’m at work at the moment, can’t generate the links right now to back it up.
LA Escapee – at 00:46
I’d be really interested in your take on why the supplies ran out so quickly, and no re-supply. Bad distribution, or physical obstacles to re-supply?
My understanding was because of several factors:
major medical conditions at the Superdome. Unanticipated.
These are the highlights off the top of my head, keeping in mind this was a conversation over Merlot a year ago.
Just for a reality check about smallpox
Iraq and North Korea Possess Smallpox, Intelligence Indicates
A U.S. intelligence official confirmed that the Central Intelligence Agency concluded last spring that Iraq, Russia, France and North Korea are likely to possess stocks of smallpox…Much of the evidence that Iraq has the pathogen comes from evidence found during U.N. weapons inspections in the early 1990s that the country was pursuing smallpox as a weapons program. U.N. inspectors examining Iraqi medical facilities discovered an industrial-size freeze dryer, the type used by microbiologists to extend the life of germ samples, that was labeled in Arabic “smallpox machine.”
This is from the UCLA depart. of epidemiology quoting a Washington post 2002 article.
I just had some time to reread the Dark Winter link I posted here. Believe it or not, this is a watered down version. The one that I remember continued several months into the future. If I remember correctly by month 3 the US cease to exist.
The hunt for the original will have to wait till tommorrow. It was on a congressional site. This one I linked is homelandsecurity which didn’t exist in June 2001. Also the video clips were accessible. They even used a real CNN anchor. It was quite scary.
Dark Winter http://tinyurl.com/y44wpe
notice the power point and video downloads on right.
Thanks DennisC !!
DennisC – at 10:16 - Just for a reality check about smallpox… Iraq and North Korea Possess Smallpox, Intelligence Indicates… A U.S. intelligence official confirmed that the Central Intelligence Agency concluded last spring that Iraq, Russia, France and North Korea are likely to possess stocks of smallpox
Excuse-me, this is very ironical, the finding of Iraq’s stolen lab smallpox strains (and if I remember right, Russian origin was mentioned) _was splashed_ on French TV just after the Iraq war a few years ago and CIA has concluded last spring that… Oh boy! How on earth can the American citizen possibly believe that their spying structures can help protect them??? Do they even have an American spy in the whole of France understanding sufficient French to watch a TV documentary?
Back to BF rumours…
Facts: I have just seen the starlings migration in my park in Geneva, they’re moving in with the cold front descending on Europe now. I saw ducks 10 days ago.
Rumours: From what I remember, they normally arrive a fortnight earlier. They’re in the middle of UK (Birmingham/Nottingham) in the first week of October. However I know nothing about duck migrations in my area.
Questions: Can starlings bring H5N1, low or high path? Does this mean also that other migrating birds are late? Were those ducks I saw late or not?
Dark Winter demonstrates the potential threat we face from multiple sources and why prepping should not be linked to a single event (avian influenza pandemic, Y2K, the cold war, Katrina, blizzards, 9–11). Unfortunately, people frequently dismiss the whole idea when the potential disaster of the moment doesn’t come to pass. My parents generation believed in being prepared and they were - they live through alot. They didn’t expected the govenment would be able to arrive and save them. It is time we too, understand what they understood. We are each responsible for those we love. Government will do what it can but it will be very limited. The threat has always been real, we chose not to think about it; to ignore it; to expects it was someone elses job; to shoot the messenger; to lay the blame elsewhere. Sometimes reality sucks but that doesn’t change the facts.
JWB – at 09:03 :-(
Frenchie Girl, “can the American citizen possibly believe that their spying structures can help protect them???” Je le ne croix pas.
FrenchieGirl – at 11:17
Article was from 2002 - “Just for a reality check about smallpox… Iraq and North Korea Possess Smallpox, Intelligence Indicates… A U.S. intelligence official confirmed that the Central Intelligence Agency concluded last spring that Iraq, Russia, France and North Korea are likely to possess stocks of smallpox”
My oh my, how rumors fly! This thread is long. Again. Closed and continued here
Last relevant posts copied to new thread